Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 23/0000 UTC THRU NOV 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE ELONGATED FULL LATITUDE TROF ALONG APPROXIMATELY 140W LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEPARATED INTO TWO COMPONENTS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK.  THE NORTHERN
PORTION WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
PERIOD---WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS LEFT BEHIND NEAR APPROX 30N
145W.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN AN END TO THE RECENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT---AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DAY 1--- AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW ATTAINS AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  WHILE PW VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD WITH TIME DAY 1 WITH THE CESSATION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP---MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
VALUES FROM THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD
THROUGH OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COAST
RANGES/OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN-NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM FAR NORTHEAST OREGON---FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON INTO NORTHERN ID AND NW MT.

FLORIDA

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THIS PERIOD OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF---PUSHING EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF AND TOWARD
FLORIDA.  STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRAW ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---INTO MOST OF FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.  THIS ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRENGTHENING WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL.  TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD---THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS FARTHER
NORTHWARD CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW CENTER AND WAS NOT FAVORED AS
PER THE PMDHMD.  SUBSEQUENTLY---THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE
QPF SOLUTIONS THAT WERE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEST TO EAST FRONT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT OVER
CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY PUSH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN MAINE

THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALL PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND
EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD AND INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP AREA WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
CENTRAL TO EASTERN MAINE EARLY THIS PERIOD---WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS---WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINING EAST
OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 495611 499621 502632 503644 504657 503662 501666 496673
      490678 486680 483682 468692 460695 451696 443697 433699
      427697 420693 415687 410680 406673 402665 400660 399654
      400649 401645 401643
 0.01 538205 539199 539193 540183 538178 536175 536170 534166
      526156 521151 518145 512140 507137 493130 480123 476121
      472120 470122 467130 463136 459143 454147 452148 450146
      445142 442141 439143 436144 435148 436151 435157 439162
      441171 443173 444177 438192 435198 433202 431204 428203
      425201 421198 419199 420203 419206 422212 422217 420220
      418220 417218 416215 414212 410210 406210 402208 387223
      385224 383229 382234 381242 383251 387262 403267 409266
      415263 430263 457267 469267 475271 482276 502294 511283
      518270 524254 529237 532229 534218 538205
 0.01 523227 524224 524222 523220 523219 522217 520216 519215
      517214 515216 516219 516221 517222 518223 519225 519226
      520228 522229 523227
 0.01 506924 504918 502916 499915 497913 493912 489909 486908
      484904 484899 485897 490884 493871 494863 494851 493841
      493836 491833 489826 488822 490818 489810 486806 482801
      478796 479789 479780 478769 477760 473745 468743 464748
      459761 455771 450784 448790 444795 439801 436806 435809
      433816 434819 436821 439820 443820 445822 452821 456828
      454835 451839 449845 448850 444853 441853 439858 443863
      447865 450872 455872 459871 462873 464878 469883 469889
      465890 459888 453889 448893 447900 448906 449908 453920
      461931 470938 475941 479942 482939 483934 484932 485934
      491947 492952 496949 501937 504930 506924
 0.01 477197 476192 476188 473187 468186 465189 463193 461198
      459202 461206 464204 468204 472201 475199 477197
 0.01 447753 447749 445747 441747 437756 434761 433768 429778
      426789 423801 424808 426805 430793 433783 439773 445764
      446759 447753
 0.01 329770 329764 326760 322758 318759 303766 294769 289771
      283773 278774 274776 268780 261786 256792 252795 250798
      245805 242813 240822 241827 243831 249837 249843 246847
      242854 235868 232876 237882 248893 255898 258900 265899
      278890 284885 290878 300865 310851 315845 319837 322828
      323818 323811 324807 327797 329783 329775 329770
 0.25 484615 488624 491631 492641 490649 482664 477669 471673
      463678 459679 450679 445678 437675 432672 426669 419669
      414664 415657 418649 422644 428637 434633 447628
 0.25 535206 536200 537193 535182 532173 528166 524160 518154
      506144 493135 488131 483128 478127 475127 472129 471135
      472139 481148 480151 476149 473146 469146 464146 462150
      461156 462160 461166 459168 452171 451173 453177 453183
      454186 457186 462180 467173 473171 477171 480173 485177
      489180 492183 497190 497193 494195 488199 475204 464209
      449213 442215 434214 430214 427217 423222 424227 422230
      419231 415230 410229 406231 400232 394238 393246 397250
      400251 408252 415253 422253 437251 451252 460253 470258
      484266 490270 495276 500282 504284 507283 512276 516269
      519260 521250 520241 517231 513223 509216 504208 502203
      504199 506197 510197 515203 521209 527213 530213 532212
      535206
 0.25 501253 499248 496241 493236 490231 486225 481223 478223
      479226 483232 487233 491237 493242 496248 500253 501253
 0.25 455228 454227 453228 452228 454229 455228
 0.25 314802 314794 309790 304790 297790 283791 269792 262794
      259798 256804 258811 259818 262823 259828 257834 256840
      257849 257857 257864 257870 255877 256883 260888 263888
      267887 272884 280877 288869 295861 302852 308841 310837
      311828 312814 314802
 0.50 478617 481622 484628 485636 483642 480648 478656 475661
      470664 464667 457668 452668 446668 436666 426659 423655
      422651 423648 428644 434641 440639 447637 455628 455625
 0.50 533203 534195 534189 532178 528169 523162 517155 512154
      509156 509159 506162 499158 488156 480155 475155 470153
      468152 466157 468161 471163 478165 484171 492177 506187
      517201 525208 529208 532206 533203
 0.50 518257 519252 518246 516238 513229 510223 502209 497203
      490201 467210 454214 441217 435218 427220 426222 427225
      428227 431234 429236 425236 416233 413234 410236 408242
      410246 412248 419247 427247 432244 435244 439245 448248
      463250 471252 478256 490267 495272 500279 503281 505281
      509275 512270 515266 518257
 0.50 505257 501248 496239 492231 489226 486224 481222 476221
      472222 471225 472227 479228 481233 484236 488235 491238
      494246 500255 502258 505257
 0.50 506151 503147 498144 494139 489135 484132 478130 474131
      473133 474136 477138 480138 483141 487144 490150 496152
      502154 506151
 0.50 461230 459228 459227 458226 456226 455225 454226 453226
      451227 450227 449229 450230 452231 454231 456231 457231
      459230 461230 461230
 0.50 308814 309806 306799 302797 295797 285795 271796 265798
      261801 261815 264816 267816 275814 279817 277821 272822
      267825 263829 261833 260839 261847 262860 260872 261878
      265880 270879 274876 283869 290862 296855 302845 305833
      308814
 1.00 527190 527182 527174 523168 521165 519167 518175 515173
      509170 506172 505174 508180 511185 514189 518194 521197
      524196 527190
 1.00 514256 514249 512241 509230 505219 499210 496207 490205
      481208 473211 465214 460216 455217 451218 445218 437222
      432223 434225 438224 444226 449225 453223 459225 464225
      468223 471221 475218 482220 487222 491225 496236 502244
      507254 511258 514256
 1.00 504276 505270 504265 500258 496252 493245 489239 486239
      483241 480233 477230 473231 467233 460233 453234 447236
      447241 451243 457243 464243 472246 479249 485254 494267
      499274 501276 504276
 1.00 471635 469630 463630 459634 457640 452644 447648 449652
      454653 460653 467651 470646 471637 471635
 1.00 426242 426241 424239 423238 421237 419236 418237 417237
      416239 416241 417243 418243 420244 422244 424244 426242
      426242
 1.00 305812 299807 293805 284803 281802 282804 284808 285814
      283821 277828 271831 268834 267838 269849 267859 266868
      268871 273870 279866 285861 289855 296840 302825 305812
 1.50 510246 508235 505226 502217 499213 495210 488209 481211
      477213 478216 488220 491222 494227 497237 503244 505247
      509249 510246
 1.50 502270 501264 498260 496256 494251 493247 490242 487241
      487248 489252 491257 494261 496265 498269 500271 502270
 1.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 480236 479235 478233 478232
      476232 474233 473234 472235 471236 471238 471240 473242
      475243 476243 478244 480244 480244
 1.50 461238 460237 458236 457236 455236 455237 453237 451237
      451238 453238 454239 456239 458239 460239 461238
 1.50 462223 464221 462220 461220 460220 460222 460223 462223
      462223
 1.50 448222 447221 446221 445221 443221 442222 443223 444223
      446224 447224 448222 448222
 1.50 423241 422240 421239 419239 418240 419240 420241 422241
      423241
 1.50 298821 297815 293813 289815 286819 282828 275836 274841
      273847 270857 270861 271864 277863 284858 287853 289848
      293839 297830 298821
 2.00 505242 506237 505234 504228 501221 499215 495213 489212
      484214 485217 490217 494223 495229 498235 502241 505242
 2.00 495257 494254 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247 490247
      491249 491250 492252 492253 493255 495257 495257
 2.00 479238 479237 478236 478234 476234 474234 474236 473237
      474238 475239 477240 478240 479238
 2.00 294822 293819 289820 285827 282832 279838 277842 276846
      273853 274858 277860 282856 285850 288842 292837 293833
      294828 294822
 3.00 501233 501230 500229 500227 499226 498226 498229 498231
      499232 500233 501233

$$





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