Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 231900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/0000 UTC THRU MAY 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST TO WESTERN
GULF COAST...

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH-IMPACT MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS AND LOW FFG ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN TX
AND ALSO IN SOUTH TEXAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE ENHANCED.

FOR DAY 1...THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN OK/NORTH TEXAS AND
AGAIN IN SOUTH TEXAS  WITH FAVORABLE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE/HIGH FORECAST MOISTURE FLUXES.
THE AREA IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK ACROSS THE RED ROVER IN TEXAS
FOLLOWS CONTINUITY FROM THE EXISTING CLUSTERS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS TAPPED BY AN UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER
CONVERGENCE SIGNAL MOVING EAST FROM THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING.
MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM
CONEST...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...NSSL-WRF BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY THE 10-11Z HIGH
RES RAPID REFRESH RUNS.  THE HIGH RES MODELS FORECAST THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTH TEXAS OF 3-6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CLUSTERED
CONVECTION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW (45-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ ~850 MB) AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BOOST PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.75-2.00+ INCHES...OR
2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM PER THE SREF/GEFS
ENSEMBLES. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-2000
J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE AMOUNTS AS THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE HEAVIER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN SOUTH TEXAS...WITH MANUAL QPF BLENDING
THE 2 CLUSTERS TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES.

MANUAL QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS USED A MULTI-MODEL QPF ALTHOUGH
CUT BACK AMOUNTS A LITTLE AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH IN
OK/TX MAY INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE. THE NAM AND
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS FCST THE BAND TO MOVE FASTER EAST ACROSS
OK AND NORTHEAST TX INTO AR...SO TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS
WELL.  DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING ENCOURAGES TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.  GRADUAL VEERING ON SUNDAY ENCOURAGES GRADUAL
FORWARD PROPAGATION.


...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST FROM UT INTO
WY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA
IN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SD AND NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF /SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/UT/CO COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS
AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS DRIFTING
EAST OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN EASTERN CO.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CELLS MOVE SLOWLY...AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CO.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH
MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 539208 540197 539194 537193 531192 526192 508176 503172
      498169 490173 488175 487180 484180 481178 479180 480185
      481191 480196 476200 473201 473203 471206 468207 462206
      461211 462214 465215 468215 470213 472211 475212 478211
      481213 483217 487218 489221 493226 495233 501243 504250
      507255 512258 516259 522256 525251 528246 530240 535222
      539208
 0.01 503880 502861 502852 501844 497817 495810 494801 492795
      491789 489782 487778 486770 485768 484763 479750 477745
      476739 473728 473722 472713 468710 464707 462705 462701
      461693 462690 464689 469690 473681 472675 468671 464672
      461676 457677 454673 453668 449662 446663 443669 443682
      442686 443694 446697 449702 448709 445714 439715 440719
      445719 447721 446725 446734 450737 452738 454741 456755
      464777 478827 479835 481842 485854 489864 491867 494873
      496878 499883 502883 503880
 0.01 480234 480231 478230 476232 476233 477235 479234 480234
 0.01 481115 482105 482097 481092 482083 481052 481022 481017
      480010 479997 476972 475966 475958 473952 473943 464900
      454882 442863 434863 430862 424862 421863 417866 410871
      403876 393878 372880 358873 344866 335863 330861 326859
      322855 320851 318849 318845 320839 319833 321830 324831
      325825 325820 323816 321812 317808 303804 299802 297798
      294790 295785 297781 299777 298772 294769 289768 285768
      282771 279780 277785 274789 271793 268796 266798 263798
      259797 258795 256793 253795 251798 250802 247812 245816
      247822 250823 251827 250830 251834 253839 256841 264843
      268846 270849 275857 280866 282870 281873 284879 283883
      278892 276896 273900 268910 260924 255932 251940 250943
      250948 247959 241965 239970 240975 242978 247979 248983
      243983 240985 236985 233991 232995 231997 232001 234011
      236017 239021 243024 248026 255029 261034 264036 267041
      271044 275044 283041 292040 301044 305047 309046 322040
      326033 331025 338018 346014 354009 360000 369996 374995
      380995 385995 388000 389009 388014 386017 382024 380030
      376030 373031 370033 366036 363040 358047 353055 346061
      342065 340070 337074 334076 337080 337093 341101 341107
      342111 345119 345126 348130 353135 356133 358134 362136
      364141 360149 358151 356149 353150 352155 355158 360160
      360164 358166 358172 357180 356183 353183 354185 360188
      363192 369194 372197 379202 385207 394213 401219 406222
      408223 410211 413207 416207 424208 426205 423200 420197
      415197 408201 406205 403207 400203 397198 398191 399187
      400185 404183 408182 420182 427187 431183 438175 440176
      441181 441184 439187 439190 444191 450193 453190 460183
      462180 464174 467165 470155 476134 481115
 0.01 394108 394105 393103 392101 391100 390098 388096 388097
      387100 387102 388104 389106 390107 391108 393108 394108
 0.25 527231 529222 530217 529213 523205 518196 514190 510188
      506189 502191 495195 493199 495202 498204 502209 504213
      509223 516232 520236 523237 527231
 0.25 468103 470096 469090 466084 464080 465075 468067 470060
      471049 471038 471028 469011 468994 462957 462937 453923
      450907 447900 442895 437892 430891 421891 415893 404901
      396906 388910 382913 375914 367912 353908 346908 340907
      332907 324907 320905 316905 312906 302912 295914 290918
      284924 281929 273942 270948 267953 259964 257967 256972
      256976 261987 259992 255996 248999 243004 241012 243014
      247016 263019 271021 277022 291021 298020 301023 305028
      309030 316028 320025 329016 351998 361991 373986 385984
      392986 397989 400994 401002 401008 399012 397018 390022
      389025 391027 397044 397053 394059 389071 386074 382072
      376069 370068 366069 362073 359079 356087 355098 358114
      359118 362122 366127 369134 370137 371142 373149 376150
      380151 387150 395151 401154 402158 405160 412160 417159
      420159 421156 420153 419149 414144 413140 417138 419136
      418132 413134 410138 403140 399140 396140 392140 389139
      386136 386133 386124 383118 380113 378108 377101 380094
      382090 384085 388079 400089 409099 415098 421096 429098
      434096 436095 437092 438088 441087 443089 442092 442096
      447102 456110 461111 464109 468103
 0.25 382190 381188 380185 379182 378180 376178 373175 369175
      368178 367182 370185 371186 374189 376190 380191 382190
 0.25 305888 305886 304884 303883 302883 301884 301886 301888
      302890 303890 304891 304890 305888 305888
 0.50 464040 464032 464026 461013 459002 460996 460992 456984
      452975 447966 443959 438950 436944 438938 439934 438927
      435918 429913 422910 413910 405913 399914 395916 386922
      378925 369927 361926 352924 344922 335923 329925 323925
      319924 314920 305918 298919 291922 288930 284939 279946
      267961 263968 262973 263978 270982 270986 268989 262995
      258004 260010 263013 267015 273017 280017 285016 292014
      298012 303014 306021 309024 312024 320018 326012 333006
      347997 359988 366984 375980 385978 391978 397979 405981
      410982 413985 419990 422999 424003 424011 422015 420018
      415020 413019 407020 403023 400028 401035 404043 402057
      400066 400073 401079 407086 411089 417089 426086 432080
      437079 440079 447081 452082 455079 461057 464040
 0.50 373113 373109 373102 373095 373091 370089 368089 364090
      363096 363102 364108 366111 368115 370117 372116 373113
 0.50 375089 375087 375085 373085 372086 373089 374089 375089
      375089
 1.00 457040 457033 456029 452022 448017 443019 437024 433028
      430030 426030 421029 417031 416036 416042 416048 413057
      410063 409070 410074 415078 422079 429076 435072 441070
      446071 448070 448061 448054 450049 455046 457040
 1.00 441997 441995 442993 442990 441988 441985 440983 438983
      437985 436986 436988 435990 436992 436994 437995 437997
      438998 439999 441998 441997
 1.00 418938 416933 411930 402929 394929 384932 372936 367937
      363936 352934 348934 343935 333941 330944 328949 326960
      323963 319963 318960 317954 314949 310947 304947 294948
      286954 277960 270966 269969 270972 273975 279981 271002
      273008 277011 282010 285007 291005 296004 301002 304004
      308013 311017 315018 327001 331998 335996 341996 346994
      360980 368975 378972 389968 397964 404957 410949 415943
      418938
 1.50 439059 438052 435047 430047 424048 422051 421057 419064
      418069 420072 424072 429069 433066 438062 439059
 1.50 403940 400936 396933 386936 374941 368942 361941 355940
      349941 344943 340947 338955 335959 328967 312982 307986
      306991 307995 309999 313003 317003 319003 324999 331992
      338989 341990 345990 353982 361976 371970 391960 396956
      400951 402946 403940
 1.50 308960 308954 303953 294956 286962 283966 282972 283985
      282995 280999 279002 280005 289001 295999 298996 299990
      302985 304980 305973 306967 308962 308960
 2.00 393949 392943 387941 377944 366946 360946 354947 345952
      339960 332966 325973 319981 316984 312986 309992 312995
      316998 320996 328990 333987 337985 342987 346985 353978
      369967 377962 386957 393949
 2.00 299977 299973 300968 300962 296961 292963 288966 288970
      286974 286979 289983 293985 297982 299977 299977
 2.00 295996 296991 294989 292987 290987 288988 288991 286994
      284996 282999 282001 283001 286000 288999 291998 293997
      295996
 3.00 368956 368954 365952 359953 350957 341962 334969 328975
      326979 328983 332981 337980 339979 341981 344981 348978
      355972 362965 366961 368956 368956
 4.00 356960 354959 350960 348961 345963 343964 341965 339967
      337971 336973 339974 342973 344973 348971 350971 352969
      354967 355963 356960

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.