Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

SATELLITE AND EVEN RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL S/WV OVER SOUTHWESTERN UT AT THIS TIME..WITH ANOTHER
MORE SHEARED OUT S/WV VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN UT ALSO.  THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE IN TAKING THESE 2 SYSTEMS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTWARD ON THE TOP SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE
THRU THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BROAD LARGE
SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY BOTH FEATURES WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE THURSDAY
MORNING HOURS..WITH EMERGING HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
THIS REGION.  MODEL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT
NOW..BUT DID LEAN TOWARDS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION QPFS OUT
IN THE PLAINS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION..INCLUDING
THE ARW.NMMB..NSSL WRF AND ECMWF HIRES..ALL OF WHICH WERE
GENERALLY A BIT HEAVIER IN THIS REGION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS.


...SOUTHEASTERN COAST INTO THE FL PENINSULA...

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE NC/SC COASTS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY DURING
TIME OF BETTER HEATING LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL
AID IN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST..HAVE
KEPT EXPECTED AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH RANEG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.  FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWS AT OR ABOVE 2" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FL WITHIN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW AHEAD OF SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROF SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DECENT RAINFALL
COVERAGE THRU THE FL PENINSULA WITH SOME LOCAL AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 515667 510658 507654 504651 499644 494639 487634 479632
      464631 459631 454632 444636 434639 427644 425649 425654
      430661 436666 439668 441672 440683 438694 437698 440699
      449697 453694 458693 463691 463695 458701 454708 450718
      449724 446728 441733 443737 447739 455735 461729 472727
      474728 479727 487727 490724 493719 496714 496710 497706
      495702 490693 486689 485685 490683 493681 496678 498675
      501668 504666 507667 512669 515667
 0.01 473086 470080 465077 453074 451073 451067 453059 453051
      454043 463019 463012 463007 462998 461993 460988 459986
      455980 450970 447965 443962 438959 434959 431956 429951
      426947 421944 409944 398944 383944 376944 371945 366948
      365953 367956 370959 374962 383966 393970 410977 392988
      386991 382994 374001 371005 369010 368015 370021 373025
      379024 388021 400017 406017 409018 413023 415030 410042
      406044 401044 393052 384047 376043 371039 366039 357033
      352033 350035 349039 349044 351050 346059 344063 345066
      343068 339070 333070 328077 321087 314087 308087 298079
      292078 287080 286085 288089 292100 293105 296107 302114
      313120 321121 325120 333121 338125 342127 345132 349135
      352140 353142 356143 361142 367142 373143 381149 385153
      391152 397150 398147 398139 396132 396125 398123 401123
      417114 426112 433112 435113 436117 434120 433124 433130
      431134 434144 436145 436148 440151 446140 450136 452133
      455127 458123 464113 468103 473086
 0.01 443764 443757 442752 438748 435746 433750 433759 431768
      428774 423780 420787 416804 411819 411824 415826 420823
      423815 425808 430793 433784 437778 441771 443764
 0.01 424058 425056 423053 422055 422058 423059 424058
 0.01 372706 371702 369702 363704 356710 353715 350718 345725
      334745 324760 319764 315767 302769 290772 286773 280775
      273776 268778 259783 249788 244793 241805 239817 238822
      239826 243833 251840 259844 272843 277842 281841 289834
      300834 306833 311831 316824 321821 324821 333824 342806
      348797 353787 357777 360767 363756 366746 369734 369727
      369723 371713 372706
 0.01 345167 344162 341159 339161 338165 336165 331163 326161
      322159 320161 323164 327166 332169 335170 339169 343168
      345167
 0.25 485653 480645 474642 465641 455644 451647 447650 446654
      446661 448668 451672 458673 468671 475669 480666 482663
      484658 485653
 0.25 477697 476694 473694 471696 470699 468701 467704 467709
      468713 472712 475710 476708 476704 477699 477697
 0.25 458018 457011 456005 454999 450996 441992 437994 437002
      436011 434016 430026 428030 429034 431039 436048 437051
      440050 443048 450039 455030 458018
 0.25 441098 442094 441091 438089 437088 435089 431089 430089
      428089 426089 426092 427094 430097 432098 436100 439099
      441098
 0.25 444976 443975 443973 442972 441971 440970 438971 439973
      440975 441976 442977 443977 444976
 0.25 415076 417070 416066 412060 408059 404058 398060 386065
      379066 371064 367063 363065 358069 356076 354077 356078
      361083 366087 371091 375092 378092 389087 398090 404086
      409082 415076
 0.25 418963 417959 414956 409954 402951 393950 386949 379950
      377953 379955 386958 393960 400963 407965 414966 417966
      418963
 0.25 352758 351753 349750 345747 339756 332768 325777 320781
      314785 308787 302788 293789 285789 271793 264794 257797
      254802 254808 257823 262827 267829 280826 286824 292823
      297818 303814 307812 313809 327805 334798 342786 346776
      350765 352758
 0.25 346083 346081 345079 343078 342078 341079 339079 338080
      336081 335082 334084 335086 335087 337087 339087 341087
      343086 344085 346083
 0.50 470653 468650 466649 463649 460650 456652 454653 453656
      454658 454661 456663 458664 462663 465662 468659 468658
      467656 470653
 0.50 452027 453017 451011 446007 444006 443009 440014 439021
      435028 435035 440038 443041 447038 450032 452027
 0.50 411070 409066 405063 400065 398067 396072 390072 390077
      393078 396078 399081 402080 406077 408072 411070
 0.50 413961 412961 410960 409959 407961 409962 410962 412962
      413961
 0.50 373077 373075 372075 371074 369074 367075 368077 368078
      369079 370080 371079 372079 373077
 0.50 345765 345756 343757 341759 338764 335769 332774 330779
      327784 327788 329789 335786 338782 341777 344771 345765
 0.50 294801 292799 291797 289797 288797 284796 282796 279796
      276797 278799 281799 283800 287801 289802 292802 294801
 0.50 282817 280812 278809 274806 272804 268802 263802 262807
      264812 266815 269818 272820 277820 281818 282817

$$




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