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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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Issued by NWS
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000 FXUS04 KWBC 210658 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 258 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAY 21/1200 UTC THRU MAY 22/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME VERY SLOW MOVING FROM W-E OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...FINALLY REACHING THE LOWER-MID MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR LINES OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PW`S AVERAGING SOME 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE COUPLED JET EXIT/ENTRANCE REGION OVR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN A SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL A VERY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PERIOD LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. WHILE THERE ARE MORE NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES IN QPF DETAILS ON THE SHORTER FORECAST TIME SCALE AMONG THE LATEST MODELS---THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM NORTHEASTERN TX---ACROSS EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST OK--CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MO---WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED. NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES AND NORTHERN NY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A DURATION MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ABOVE AREA ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAY 1 AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRUNS THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE UPPER LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLE HERE. PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEIGHT FALLS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD DAY 1---AMPLIFYING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR .25-.50" AMOUNTS AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS STRENGTHENING UVVS---HIGHER PW VALUES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PAC NW THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL ALSO PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO FL. AN UPPER TROF AXIS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH TWO WELL DEFINED CIRCULATIONS...ONE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST FL---WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS RATHER LOW IN THIS AXIS---BUT HIGHER OVERALL FOR THE 24 HOURS PERIOD THAT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL FALL. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 22/12Z 0.01 483687 481679 478673 471666 456655 448650 442649 438646 435644 429644 423651 421655 418659 414668 413672 413677 410722 410731 410738 409745 409750 408754 406760 403765 397779 393782 389780 383774 379771 376768 370763 364758 361756 357757 352759 350758 355750 358743 350746 340752 337755 333760 330769 323775 313778 307777 296772 281765 276764 268764 253766 246772 243777 240784 237788 236793 237811 238817 242822 246824 249824 256825 268827 274829 282831 290834 297838 311842 318845 324846 328849 336849 343850 349850 352851 358855 364859 363862 360865 337888 331891 329894 319899 311898 302900 297901 295904 294909 296912 303918 303923 302927 299933 297940 293956 291965 284969 278976 276984 274988 276992 283996 288000 296000 307999 312000 316003 322007 326005 331004 344996 349992 355985 363973 373960 377952 381943 385932 387928 390926 393927 398925 402923 408921 419917 425914 430913 436915 440917 441923 442930 441934 441941 440946 439953 436958 430964 427974 429982 428989 430995 429001 428005 425014 426029 438044 441048 445050 451056 459055 463052 468052 476051 479050 482046 485036 487028 488023 490011 492997 497972 500960 501949 506924 506919 507915 507908 508894 508885 509881 508866 506841 499814 495799 494791 494783 493755 492746 492741 490728 490723 488715 487706 484693 483687 0.01 532224 533214 532209 530207 530203 530194 530189 529186 527179 525173 522170 516160 510151 504141 500138 498135 492133 487130 478128 474129 469131 465134 460135 459140 458144 455146 447149 443157 443162 447166 446175 443179 438187 436189 435193 435200 433209 431212 422216 416220 408226 402234 399239 399246 407253 414259 417261 423263 441263 445262 451262 454261 459261 471263 475262 480263 486266 491271 494273 498279 502282 507283 512275 515272 520269 522260 524251 532224 0.25 478711 475701 470689 466683 462677 444666 438661 434659 431659 427666 425673 424681 424688 427702 428707 427711 422718 418723 417731 419747 417759 416766 416775 413790 412805 412812 410819 408824 406828 407831 406835 405837 401839 382854 376859 372863 362873 352881 344889 334898 324906 317914 315920 315924 308935 306941 304948 303959 302966 299971 295974 286976 284979 286983 289987 295989 300990 310991 314989 320990 325992 331992 343988 351980 358970 365957 370947 375938 382926 390917 395914 402910 409908 413905 417898 422891 425886 427878 429872 431865 433859 437857 441858 445864 448873 447880 444889 444896 448911 450921 450935 447951 438975 437983 438992 440999 444004 449007 454010 458009 463005 466997 469988 470978 470967 471959 473952 477937 479922 481912 486906 493902 496897 499890 499883 499862 499855 497849 495841 483804 480795 479787 479768 481738 478711 0.25 520245 522236 523227 523216 522207 521203 517195 511185 506179 504171 502166 500163 496159 485157 481157 478159 476167 474170 471176 474180 473184 469195 466198 463200 459199 457198 458191 461187 465182 466175 464174 461174 459177 451183 446191 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469744 471736 471728 469713 0.50 513237 516224 517217 516210 511193 504178 500168 497165 493163 486170 484176 482178 482187 482194 481200 477207 474209 471209 468218 471222 475223 483224 488226 492229 497236 502240 506243 511241 513237 0.50 459241 459228 459224 457222 454218 446217 440216 437219 433222 429228 429235 425236 420237 417240 421245 423247 432248 441247 450246 459241 0.50 462958 461941 460924 459916 456914 456917 455922 454930 451942 449953 446966 445978 446986 447992 450995 453993 457989 459984 462971 462958 0.50 423862 423854 422847 420843 418844 403854 398858 393859 384863 375867 369872 356883 344894 332905 322916 316930 309945 309951 311957 314964 314970 316974 320979 328985 334986 339985 344983 349978 354971 358964 364949 372935 376927 381921 387913 393907 400902 406896 410889 414881 416872 421865 423862 0.50 316801 312795 308791 295790 281789 269789 263790 256793 252798 251804 252808 257813 263816 268818 273820 279822 285818 288811 292810 296808 304806 316801 1.00 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