Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270642
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 27/1200 UTC THRU JUN 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH FL ON TUES, AS
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH SWINGS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. AS A RESULT, A DEEP POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZE INTERACTION WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA, WITH MULTIPLE 00Z HI-RES MODELS FOCUSING
SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS. WPC FOLLOWED A SUITE OF THIS
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA WILL STEER
A RATHER DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
NW, INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUES INTO WED MORNING. THIS POTENT
IMPULSE ALONG VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLASH WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE CONTENT FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS. THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH CONSENSUS ON QPF,
OTHER THAN CONVECTION IS LIKELY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. WPC RELIED MORE ON THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ON TWO POSSIBLE
AREAS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS. BY RELYING ON THE 00Z
NAM CONEST AND WRF-NSSL A STREAK OF CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM SWRN/SOUTHERN NE SOUTH AND EAST TO NERN KS.
MEANWHILE BY RELYING ON THE HRW-ARW AND NMMB, THE FOCUS POINT WILL
BE FROM EASTERN SD/NERN NE INTO MN/IA. IN BOTH SPOTS, WPC WENT
WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE 00Z/28 TO 12/28 PERIOD AS THE GREAT PLAINS
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

...TEXAS GULF COAST...

A WEAKNESS ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER SERN TX INTO LA. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SUPPLANTED OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL POSSIBLE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, AS GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW INTO TX REMAINS
INTACT. SOME OF THE HI-RES SUITE IS SUGGESTING THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM CRP TO VCT AND PERHAPS UP TO HOU/IAH.
THIS IS WHERE WPC WENT WITH 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, AS STEERING FLOW IS EXTREMELY LIGHT.

...NORTHEAST....

THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL SWING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATL
COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO MAINE.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE BULK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT WELL TO THE SOUTH, THUS NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OCCURRING FROM WEST CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH
NH INTO PARTS OF MA/CT AND RI. THIS IS WHERE WPC WENT WITH AREAL
AVG AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 560035 558029 555026 553024 552021 554018 555013 556007
      554000 552993 549987 547983 543979 530968 522962 515956
      504938 497932 491924 487916 482909 475904 471910 469915
      467914 466912 465907 463905 458905 455907 449907 444906
      439906 433904 426900 421897 415897 411900 408905 408910
      408917 412927 412933 409936 401940 391943 384949 382954
      382959 385966 382976 379974 378971 376966 374966 371967
      368965 364962 362963 361966 357969 354973 353978 356984
      362992 367992 371990 382989 385984 388983 385992 381003
      379006 377010 379020 380022 378023 375025 372024 372022
      372019 369016 366018 363021 360026 358030 353031 348033
      346038 342046 338048 333049 329048 323048 318046 312045
      305039 305025 298023 298018 303015 309015 307012 307007
      308002 310999 311994 312990 314988 317986 319982 323978
      328980 335974 338964 337960 337958 334952 331952 327954
      322954 320950 319943 317939 319934 320929 318922 314913
      312909 308909 301912 299907 299901 298898 299894 302893
      304890 302887 299885 295886 294882 296879 303874 305869
      305862 306859 309855 313856 314849 316845 314842 313837
      314832 316827 318823 325816 330808 333807 335810 335813
      338809 340803 340799 341794 344786 355776 361769 364766
      365761 359756 354758 352762 342781 341785 339790 336795
      334799 325805 324807 322806 321800 322795 324792 328783
      342755 348746 352736 353728 355715 352704 350700 346699
      335699 332699 329701 319706 312712 304719 296726 284737
      278740 273745 268753 264761 264767 267769 271773 276772
      279773 279776 275780 269787 252797 244803 240811 239815
      242817 247812 251814 253818 258823 264832 271837 277837
      279843 283852 282858 279862 275871 270880 267890 265900
      263905 259908 251913 242917 239920 237923 233930 231940
 0.01 231940 230957 233970 235973 235978 236986 234995 237001
      242006 248009 252015 258019 278040 287047 297052 301054
      303057 305059 302061 295062 285061 280061 276059 270055
      266051 262047 259045 253043 246044 234045 232053 231060
      238068 248077 258087 270095 276098 284101 295103 309094
      330090 337088 341087 342082 344074 343066 342062 343059
      346055 350054 354055 358058 361062 364059 369059 372058
      376058 380069 384067 384064 384056 382049 383042 385041
      387043 386049 390050 390047 394041 399035 403033 404038
      406041 408043 410050 413050 415048 417046 418049 418055
      418058 414059 400062 398064 398068 397072 398074 403072
      406070 407074 409077 408079 409083 408093 406097 406100
      409110 410100 410094 412087 417083 423067 425065 426066
      428068 432070 432075 421090 421093 424096 424103 423107
      421112 418113 417115 418118 429122 433123 434127 434133
      435137 433146 436154 437158 439159 444160 445162 448165
      449169 450172 449176 448182 450184 452181 453175 454169
      456166 460167 462167 463164 465161 469161 472151 475145
      478144 483148 490149 503147 514154 516156 518155 523153
      522149 520142 517134 513129 507123 503117 501079 495082
      493083 492081 490078 489076 486077 483077 481080 478080
      477075 479068 481062 483060 485065 499035 504037 510043
      516047 521052 524055 528055 534056 538055 542055 551057
      554055 556048 560035
 0.01 544874 543868 543861 542855 540849 536839 533832 530830
      514820 510817 506817 493819 492816 492812 493807 493796
      493789 490784 487778 485772 485757 487745 489729 487712
      487703 487699 488693 489688 490683 489674 487656 486649
      484643 480638 476637 471637 469641 461650 457657 453666
      449675 447680 443684 433691 427698 424702 417704 412707
      410711 406719 403724 404726 395743 400742 403738 405741
      407741 408745 406747 403750 402756 399760 395759 395764
      392769 386763 383764 381768 377778 381782 378789 373790
      375794 378792 383786 386783 388783 390778 394772 397768
      402770 407772 408774 407778 407781 405784 401788 396791
      397794 399797 402795 404797 407799 409802 409805 415827
      416833 417835 421834 424839 426841 429839 437842 444841
      446838 449836 448833 448829 447827 443823 440820 438818
      439816 444815 453814 458815 461821 469823 473825 477830
      479835 483839 494858 497863 499868 502876 506885 513896
      518905 521908 525913 528915 532915 537913 539912 539907
      539897 540888 542878 544874
 0.01 479094 479092 478089 478087 476087 475089 476091 476094
      477096 479094
 0.01 478054 477048 475046 473043 472037 471033 469031 467033
      460033 456033 454034 453040 454044 456047 460047 464050
      468056 470066 472065 473061 478054
 0.01 416232 416229 417227 417225 417222 416222 416220 415219
      414219 413220 412221 412223 411225 410225 410228 411230
      411231 413232 415233 416232
 0.01 434852 434849 434847 434845 434844 432845 430845 429847
      428848 428850 429852 431855 432852 434852 434852
 0.01 392029 393027 393025 393023 392020 391020 390020 390021
      388022 388023 387024 387027 388028 388029 389031 391031
      392029
 0.01 375945 373940 372938 373934 373920 369909 365898 364893
      363887 361882 356881 356886 358892 362903 364908 364914
      368927 369932 368938 370943 373945 375945
 0.01 324076 324074 324072 322072 320072 320071 318070 317069
      315069 313071 311073 311075 311077 312079 314080 315080
      316079 318078 318077 320077 321078 323078 324076
 0.01 298038 299036 299034 299031 299029 297027 296025 295027
      294029 295031 295033 294035 293036 292037 293039 295039
      297039 298038
 0.25 528007 529002 528998 525993 516981 506970 502966 496965
      489974 479964 477961 477959 478953 477948 478938 476935
      474934 464935 457931 453930 449931 446939 444942 441942
      436940 428939 418944 414949 410951 407948 405946 402948
      396952 390955 389957 389961 393974 398991 403005 410019
      413019 414017 416010 419005 420001 421995 422992 425988
      429981 431978 434977 436978 438982 442983 446980 452978
      454981 454987 452996 449002 451005 454007 458013 459017
      461019 466018 468013 467008 466006 469003 471000 471994
      473984 471980 468979 465977 467974 472973 475978 479984
      480995 482002 475006 473008 473013 478015 483013 486013
      488010 488997 491995 495993 502996 507999 513004 519011
      524010 528007
 0.25 484674 481670 478660 474654 472651 469652 465657 462664
      457679 454683 449689 447692 444693 438697 428706 423711
      419716 415730 414734 416738 421740 423744 423748 422751
      424754 426756 427760 426765 428767 435778 446775 449759
      451752 454745 458741 459733 460727 464721 470709 474702
      476694 480685 483679 484674
 0.25 488126 488124 487121 487119 487118 487116 486113 484111
      483111 481112 481113 481115 482117 482118 483120 484121
      484123 485125 485126 486127 488126
 0.25 471110 471105 469100 468094 465090 461080 459076 455078
      450076 447072 444070 446074 449077 450083 447088 446094
      443097 439099 438102 438106 439112 442123 445126 447121
      450119 450124 448136 450149 453152 454149 454144 453139
      455133 454127 454123 456123 459108 461104 465104 471110
      471110
 0.25 449061 450058 450056 449054 449053 448051 447051 446050
      446051 445053 445055 446058 447060 447062 449061 449061
 0.25 440036 440031 440027 439025 435025 433027 433030 432035
      433037 433042 433047 434050 435054 437050 438045 438042
      440038 440036
 0.25 397014 396011 395010 394009 393009 392007 391006 390006
      388006 387007 386008 386011 388013 389013 390014 392015
      392016 393017 395017 396016 397014 397014
 0.25 381983 380982 378982 377982 375982 373981 372981 371980
      370979 370978 368976 369978 369979 371981 371982 372983
      373984 375985 376986 377985 378985 380985 381983
 0.25 363972 362971 361971 359971 357972 358974 359974 361975
      362974 362973 363972
 0.25 343719 342716 339713 331717 325723 321731 317738 311744
      305751 300759 297765 297772 295775 291783 285789 283793
      284798 276796 257801 252806 254810 257813 264817 270823
      278824 282826 284830 286835 288840 290843 294845 297853
      300854 301852 302848 304842 304835 306832 304829 302827
      301823 311820 311815 311812 313811 315806 315800 317792
      320783 326764 328757 333749 341731 342726 343719
 0.25 338056 338055 336054 334056 336057 338057 338056
 0.25 309814 309812 308810 308809 306808 306807 304806 303806
      302805 300805 298805 296806 295807 294809 295811 297812
      298813 299813 301814 303814 304814 306814 308814 309814
 0.25 310952 311946 311941 310935 307932 299926 297923 297918
      288904 286902 282903 279905 275907 271910 268915 261921
      254926 248933 238944 236949 236955 237966 245980 248985
      249990 250994 253997 267005 278018 283019 285016 287012
      291012 294012 295009 294007 291002 284001 278999 275997
      273993 273988 277987 279986 280989 284993 292999 295000
      299998 303990 307983 307980 306978 302977 301971 301966
      301961 302958 306954 310952
 0.25 294088 292083 289078 284075 278073 272071 267067 263064
      257062 246057 241055 239055 238059 245067 254074 263080
      273086 278088 282090 286091 291090 294088
 0.50 477671 474662 471660 466660 463668 461679 457685 452693
      449700 446702 444701 441699 436702 430709 424713 423718
      426721 430719 435719 440718 443714 450714 453713 456713
      463715 467709 468699 469694 471690 474682 476677 477671
      477671
 0.50 484010 485007 483006 482006 480007 478008 477009 477012
      478012 480012 481011 483010 484010
 0.50 473959 472955 471954 464954 449957 457951 462946 463941
      460939 454939 448942 442947 437947 433946 430947 424951
      419954 417958 416962 412966 405965 402959 399955 395956
      391959 393967 398984 403998 409012 411014 413012 415003
      416992 414982 417977 424974 431973 438974 440977 443977
      447971 462972 473959
 0.50 465013 465008 465003 465999 463997 460996 457996 455999
      455002 456003 460005 461008 462011 462016 464016 465013
 0.50 454735 453733 452733 451733 450733 449733 448733 447732
      446731 445731 444732 444735 445736 446737 447738 448739
      449740 451739 452738 453737 454736 454735
 0.50 449112 449109 447107 447106 446106 444106 442108 442110
      443113 445114 446114 447113 449112 449112
 0.50 447957 445955 443955 442956 440957 439959 439961 440963
      442963 443961 443960 444959 445958 447957
 0.50 422728 421727 420727 419728 418730 418731 418733 419734
      419733 420732 421730 421728 422728
 0.50 331739 331735 327734 322739 314751 308765 304771 300777
      294790 294795 295799 303801 305802 310802 312799 314795
      317780 322765 327751 331739
 0.50 309818 301816 296814 291812 285806 277801 270804 265801
      261803 256804 254808 260813 265814 268816 269819 272823
      274822 280822 286822 289824 291829 291833 291840 294843
      298846 298849 299850 301847 299842 296839 294837 295835
      302840 303837 301831 298827 294825 294822 297820 300820
      306820 309818
 0.50 305937 303932 299932 297930 292918 287914 281912 277913
      274915 270919 252935 246945 245953 244960 244967 245974
      248979 253984 259993 263994 266992 268985 273984 279982
      281980 285980 289985 288990 289993 291993 292990 294988
      299989 301984 298979 297976 294977 292977 290973 290968
      297966 297961 295954 298950 298941 299937 301937 305938
      305937
 0.50 290006 289005 287004 286004 284005 283005 282007 280007
      282008 284009 285008 286008 287007 289006 290006
 0.50 268982 269980 268980 267980 266981 265982 266984 268983
      268982
 0.50 263984 262984 261984 259984 261984 262984 263984
 1.00 472675 472673 471671 469669 469671 470673 469676 469678
      469679 468681 470683 471681 471680 472678 472676 472675
 1.00 465697 463696 461698 460701 461703 462703 463702 464700
      465698 465697
 1.00 456964 457962 455961 454961 452961 451962 451964 452964
      454964 455964 456964
 1.00 453947 453945 452944 451945 450945 449946 448947 449948
      450949 452948 453947
 1.00 435968 435964 433959 435955 435951 431952 428955 424958
      421960 418963 420968 424969 430970 435969 435968
 1.00 410996 408991 405984 403979 400972 399970 398966 397964
      396968 399972 398977 399982 401986 404993 408998 410996
 1.00 293816 290813 286810 283808 278807 274806 272810 271813
      275815 277818 283819 287818 292818 293816
 1.00 294941 292924 290920 285920 276923 270927 263933 258939
      254947 252957 248965 247969 248974 253975 257973 263970
      270976 277980 284976 287977 288975 286970 288966 289963
      287959 287956 289956 292955 292947 294941
 1.00 266806 266804 265804 263805 261806 260806 258806 256807
      257809 258810 260811 261811 262811 263811 264810 265808
      266806
 1.00 262978 261977 259977 258978 259979 261979 262978
 1.50 432966 432964 431963 430962 428962 427961 426961 425961
      424962 424964 426965 427966 428967 430967 431966 432966
 1.50 291816 289814 287812 284811 282810 280809 276808 274809
      272812 275812 277814 279813 281814 283815 286816 288816
      291816
 1.50 291935 288929 285925 281926 274929 269933 265937 261943
      256960 252964 251969 254971 259967 264967 266969 277978
      283973 286966 285962 282960 277960 276956 283943 288939
      291935
 2.00 281811 280810 278810 277811 278812 280812 281811
 2.00 285966 283963 280963 277962 274960 273956 277947 279939
      282935 282932 281930 273933 269935 266938 262945 261950
      261954 262959 262962 265963 274965 279966 282968 285966
 2.00 280974 280972 279972 277972 275972 275974 275976 277976
      279975 280974

$$





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