Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 25/0000 UTC THRU DEC 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST...

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE H5
S/WV NOW LIFTING INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL REMAIN
OPEN FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING..KEEPING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD..AND ALSO RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF SNOW AND LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THRU THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI.  THE 12Z MODEL
QPFS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEM.  FOR
SNOWFALL DETAILS..PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD.  FARTHER EAST..IN THE
WARM SECTOR..THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MSTR NORTHWARD..LEADING TO WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAINS..WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAINS PROBABLE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SOME TRAINING OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY LOCAL
RUNOFF PROBLEMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND..BUT WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND..SEE THIS AS A DURATION RAINFALL EVENT PROBLEM.  THE
LATEST MODEL QPFS HERE WERE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT..WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS EXPECTED FROM COASTAL
NJ UP THRU EASTERN NEW ENGLAND..WITH ANY ORGANIZED GREATER THAN 1
INCH TOTALS MOST LIKELY VICINITY OF DOWNEAST ME.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES...

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE H5
TROF NOW COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD..WHILE CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL CENTER ALSO DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY.  PRETTY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL MAKE UP FOR WHAT IS A RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM TO STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION..WITH HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS..OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES.  AGAIN..LEANED HEAVILY
TOWARD CONTINUITY ALONG WITH LATEST GFS/NAM AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS
REGION GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT.  FOR DETAILS ON
WINTER WEATHER..SEE QPFHSD DISCUSSION.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 486614 492622 495626 498632 503643 508655 513667 519678
      524690 529700 535730 537737 538744 542760 544774 539783
      534796 531803 529809 519829 515832 511833 506836 501838
      496840 491843 488849 485852 478858 474864 474870 473878
      473885 472890 472894 470900 467903 465900 460889 456879
      452875 448873 443871 437871 423873 399874 390871 387867
      385861 383856 383851 384843 386840 387836 385830 377819
      368820 359817 349815 343815 339817 329822 320828 311833
      300834 294833 288833 279834 267838 259843 248847 241848
      236848 231847 229843 229835 230830 226822 231814 237805
      242797 247790 251782 266766 272758 278751 284743 290736
      295728 298724 301721 311714 320706 335694 343688 353682
      358679 364675 373669 381662 390657 396651 401643
 0.01 551925 550915 548910 546909 543909 537908 533905 529903
      524902 518901 512901 506903 495906 493910 492917 489924
      488932 490938 492944 498954 509975 514987 520999 523002
      526007 530010 535012 539008 541002 542999 542994 542984
      542974 542967 541957 540954 541950 542944 545939 548932
      550926 551925
 0.01 525195 523191 521186 519182 518177 515172 511173 508175
      506181 504184 505188 508193 511195 516196 521198 524196
      525195
 0.01 495220 496215 494212 487209 481208 473209 470210 467209
      460208 457208 454206 451204 450202 451200 454195 460190
      469180 479170 481168 485167 491166 494166 496164 501159
      503157 503151 504145 503141 501131 499122 497116 495107
      492101 489093 484079 482072 483063 483056 480052 475046
      472043 470046 468048 466047 463029 460010 460997 460985
      462962 462932 460913 458899 452901 450908 450919 448940
      439977 436983 433994 416020 404041 398048 390053 382053
      374052 368052 362054 361062 361082 357082 354080 350079
      349082 348085 349088 349093 346095 337103 335106 335110
      337113 339111 343107 348103 353099 357098 359098 361100
      363104 361108 355111 348114 345116 347118 354129 358136
      364138 369142 377145 381150 384155 384160 382163 380167
      380173 378176 374177 369179 361178 356180 349183 346185
      344188 344193 348199 353195 359195 365196 369201 371204
      371207 369207 362208 361217 366221 373219 381218 392217
      407216 414218 414228 412236 411240 409243 404242 402244
      396247 389245 382245 379246 377248 379252 382254 391256
      400256 414258 427257 438254 450251 458251 463254 470257
      475255 476248 479246 480242 477240 465232 470227 474224
      489224 492226 495220
 0.01 341170 339167 336165 331164 325162 320161 317159 313158
      314162 318164 321167 326168 331171 335172 339172 341170
 0.25 468621 476624 484630 490639 495649 505670 510683 515696
      520710 523725 525733 526741 526750 526757 523772 521785
      516794 510804 507809 503813 495817 477827 459837 448843
      444845 437846 433844 431838 430829 431824 435814 438801
      448779 451768 452762 451753 449747 445744 441742 436744
      426748 418754 408761 399765 389767 378766 372766 365768
      355772 344776 336781 325786 320787 316784 317780 320776
      327770 336763 344758 353752 358750 361746 361742 359741
      356736 350737 344739 334745 327749 316754 310756 304756
      300759 299765 298767 294769 286777 276782 274780 275778
      278774 285766 300753 306746 311737 314732 319727 326720
      343709 352704 362699 380686 384684 390679 399673 407667
      411664 413660 419647 423641 427635
 0.25 479135 479129 474127 472123 471116 472109 472102 466092
      461085 456076 454062 452051 450040 449034 446031 441032
      438036 436043 437050 434071 442078 444082 444087 426080
      423084 418087 423089 425093 429102 426104 421105 414108
      409101 406097 403100 400104 397106 383118 377124 376130
      379133 389132 394132 399134 409131 413134 416138 418144
      423147 433148 437151 440151 446151 451152 454155 459156
      464155 468152 470146 473141 479135
 0.25 455224 454220 449219 445219 441220 438222 434225 432227
      435228 438228 444228 447227 451226 455224 455224
 0.25 438243 439241 439239 438238 437237 435237 433238 433239
      431240 430241 429242 428243 427244 427245 427246 427247
      428248 430248 432247 434247 434246 436245 438243 438243
 0.25 430067 428066 426067 426069 428069 430068 430067
 0.25 417165 419161 418157 414153 410153 402152 399155 396159
      396163 394170 396173 400173 403174 409175 411171 415166
      417165
 0.25 415054 418052 419051 419049 418048 417048 415048 413050
      414052 415054
 0.25 390204 389200 388198 383193 378190 373186 368184 361182
      359183 357185 358187 364189 369192 373197 377201 383204
      386205 390204
 0.25 400075 401073 400072 399072 397074 397076 398077 400075
 0.25 301800 300796 298795 294794 285799 276804 267810 261816
      258820 257826 260828 267827 276823 284817 291811 298804
      301800
 0.50 520745 519734 517723 514713 512705 509697 506690 501683
      496675 494666 491658 488649 484643 479639 474634 468631
      462629 455629 447631 439635 433639 429644 426652 423659
      420667 416673 414676 414680 411687 406693 394702 393720
      385731 381737 379745 379748 382752 390753 396752 403749
      413740 424730 436721 444718 451718 457720 463722 468727
      471733 474741 474752 473762 471771 464785 456797 448811
      440822 437830 439833 442834 450831 455827 469819 481812
      487808 493806 500802 505798 509793 513787 516778 519769
      520757 520745
 0.50 460143 459143 458141 456141 455142 456143 457145 458145
      459144 460143
 0.50 458101 457098 457097 456096 455095 454095 454098 454100
      455102 456102 458101
 0.50 453081 453080 453078 451076 451075 450074 449073 448072
      446071 445070 443070 442072 443074 444076 445077 446078
      448080 449081 451082 453081 453081
 0.50 438105 436104 433105 432108 429111 427113 426116 428119
      430118 434117 437117 441119 445118 448116 449113 450109
      447105 442105 438105
 0.50 421119 420116 417114 410112 407108 401110 397113 392116
      390118 392121 398122 404122 409122 416122 420121 421119
 0.50 380197 379194 378192 377191 376191 374189 373188 371188
      370188 369190 371191 372193 374194 375195 376196 377197
      379197 380197
 0.50 288808 287805 285806 282807 280809 277811 275812 273814
      271816 270818 271820 274820 275819 278817 281816 282814
      284812 287810 288808
 1.00 508768 508761 505758 502761 499764 496767 493771 491774
      491782 494784 498783 502780 505777 507774 508768
 1.00 473655 471648 466644 462642 456641 450644 445648 442660
      437671 432684 432689 434693 440694 453689 460688 465685
      469680 472675 473668 472657 473655

$$




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