Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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496
FXUS04 KWBC 131741
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EST WED DEC 13 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 14/0000 UTC THRU DEC 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

A CLIPPER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ALSO PRETTY SIMILAR WITH QPF
OUTPUT. THUS WPC QPF FOLLOWS A GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODEL BLEND.
SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF PA AND NJ. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
0.25"-0.5" BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND AND 12Z THURSDAY SHOULD BE ALONG
AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MI INTO NORTHEAST OH...WESTERN PA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WV.

...ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

TWO DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND BOTH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. NONETHELESS A
COUPLE SWATHS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY...ONE FROM WY INTO
CENTRAL CO...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN
CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND...WITH A BIT
HIGHER WEIGHTING GIVEN TO SOME OF THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 448628 453638 454645 452649 443667 430673 428678 427683
      425693 422704 420716 426722 422724 422727 423729 427731
      430733 431746 435773 435786 437793 439796 447794 453801
      455804 455810 452820 453827 454831 456835 454840 450841
      448843 450845 458844 458849 457852 453858 452862 450867
      448871 443877 435883 428883 418879 411876 407873 405871
      409868 407860 404857 399858 396860 394858 393845 393837
      394833 393825 393821 390820 379821 374824 372826 369831
      369828 370823 370820 367818 363821 362825 358830 359825
      359821 374809 385794 391789 394784 395780 396775 395768
      393762 391760 385750 383746 382741 381734 382729 379724
      374724 350745 344746 340749 334750 331749 325749 321749
      317748 317743 319733 321724 326718 333713 338703 343697
      350690 352686 356683 368670 373664 379658 395645
 0.01 554050 555039 555032 554029 553021 548017 539009 531002
      519001 506001 489987 482987 478986 475984 469974 463971
      457971 447962 445957 443956 440957 437957 436959 436969
      436973 433975 428971 424968 419965 413963 410961 409962
      402963 398968 391977 387981 385988 385992 383995 387997
      389000 391000 394000 396998 399994 405992 415996 421000
      424006 424011 423013 421020 426033 425043 425048 422050
      420049 419045 417038 414039 411043 408042 407040 404033
      399030 395025 382042 384036 384028 381022 377017 371008
      367007 367010 368016 370022 370028 370033 369035 367039
      368043 367047 362051 358053 356055 357058 359059 361056
      363055 366057 363064 362066 363068 368072 370070 373070
      374071 376078 381083 387084 390081 393081 395085 394094
      396094 400088 402086 403090 405095 404106 403112 406117
      408119 412115 416111 419106 422102 427099 430098 432100
      437105 441103 446100 448098 449102 449109 447116 447121
      450122 454118 455115 456111 457101 455093 451078 447069
      443067 436065 433063 436061 442059 447061 450062 451066
      451071 454072 457072 458068 460061 463054 470045 472045
      473049 469055 469058 471058 475054 477049 481044 483042
      485042 490046 500052 519053 524055 529053 532053 535056
      538062 539067 543072 547069 551064 554050
 0.01 501026 501024 501021 501018 501016 500013 498011 496009
      495010 495013 493015 493016 492018 491020 492023 493025
      494028 496028 497028 499028 501026
 0.01 479686 477676 474668 472667 469668 465673 468692 468696
      466699 461703 456709 451711 447714 444713 442713 443716
      447716 448718 446724 446727 449727 452726 454723 459719
      465716 469717 472716 474710 476703 478695 479686
 0.01 477860 475853 472848 468843 464844 461859 460868 460872
      461876 463881 464886 464891 460896 459898 460903 462920
      467920 469915 470907 471897 475885 477882 477877 476870
      475865 476862 477860
 0.01 457035 455028 452025 448025 444022 440024 438021 435023
      428030 429035 429039 429056 430059 432059 435056 439051
      438043 439034 440028 443028 445030 447035 448038 451039
      455036 457035
 0.01 450085 451083 449081 448080 447080 446078 445077 444076
      443076 441075 440076 441079 442081 442082 444084 445087
      447089 449087 450085
 0.01 448850 448848 446846 444848 444849 443851 443853 445855
      446853 448850
 0.01 314099 314093 315088 316081 314079 315075 317069 317063
      314054 312051 309051 305053 303056 301063 295071 293076
      293083 295088 298092 301096 305100 310101 314099 314099
 0.01 294839 293826 292822 291820 287822 285824 281825 278829
      274832 271837 268843 268849 266860 271863 274867 276873
      283873 284867 288864 292851 294839
 0.01 277032 278024 277018 273007 274999 276993 278988 280983
      279978 277978 275978 275982 271993 267997 262000 258002
      254006 251009 248014 244024 243032 243039 245045 243050
      241065 239071 238077 238084 245086 248086 253084 259075
      263071 266067 274044 277032
 0.25 444041 444038 444036 443035 443036 441038 440040 441042
      443043 444041
 0.25 414793 415788 414783 411778 409776 406778 403783 401788
      396793 393794 397794 403795 406799 410803 413799 414793
 0.25 405712 405708 404705 402702 400700 397703 395705 395708
      396712 397715 398719 400721 403721 404719 405715 405712
 0.25 392796 392794 391794 390795 388797 386798 385799 385800
      383802 385804 387803 388802 389801 390799 391797 392796

$$





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