Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281826
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

UPPER LAKES/OH VALLEY

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MB AND WESTERN ONTARIO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD OUT OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LIKELY TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL
CONSENSUS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED HI RES AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS---WAS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY FROM EASTERN IA AND NW MO AND
NORTHEAST KS.  THESE SHOWERS THEN MOVE INTO THE REST OF IL AND IN
WED.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA INTO NORTHERN MO---RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS.  LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES REGION AS THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MAX FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
MAY INTERRUPT MOISTURE FLUXES FURTHER NORTH. MANUAL QPF USED THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND
12Z WRF ARW.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
  CONVECTION LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS CLOSED HIGH AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT FROM
NORTHEAST NM---THE TX/OK PANHANDLE---EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST KS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
AXIS---WITH THE USUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF
DETAILS.  MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE 12Z
CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND WRF ARW. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STRONGER 700
MB CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CO 06-12Z AND 18-00Z WED
SO WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS.

MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/UPPER TN
VALLEY

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
FCST BY 12Z NAM WITH PW MAXIMA NEAR 2 INCHES...SUPPORTING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY
ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE DIURNAL PEAKS TODAY AND WED.   SLOW
MOVING CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.  LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
THIS PERIOD AS THE MODELS AND HIGH RES ENSEMBLES SHOW SCATTER SHOT
SHOWERS/STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS WAS
DEPICTED OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE UPPER TN VALLEY---THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
MANUAL PROGS BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM/WRF ARW.

FLORIDA

THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN FL DRIFTS NORTH
WITH TIME AND BECOMES A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WED.
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND THE
PANHANDLE.  MOSTLY DIURNAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN LIKELY IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...WITH INITIATION NEAR
SEA AND LAKE BREEZES...AND OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
SPORADIC UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL ALSO HELP INDUCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RESULTANT RUNOFF
ISSUES.  MANUAL PROFS USED A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM QPF.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 465622 464630 466638 469645 470653 469659 465663 458666
      454663 450658 447651 446644 444634 445629
 0.01 567952 567935 566928 566919 565906 564897 563891 562882
      560876 557867 552859 548852 533848 522849 519847 519842
      519834 516830 512827 518819 516809 513802 512799 510798
      502794 500793 495795 487799 477801 446817 436814 428810
      425809 419810 415812 412814 408818 404820 398822 396821
      397819 397809 401801 407793 407788 406782 400775 398770
      396767 393763 388762 387760 389759 393759 395757 394752
      392748 390746 386744 382747 378750 378755 381758 384759
      381760 369758 364759 361761 357765 356770 355781 349786
      346789 343793 341796 336799 343784 348778 352776 354773
      352769 350767 346768 344772 343777 338788 333795 316806
      313807 309805 305796 304791 302787 299784 294782 286779
      282779 278781 263790 248801 243807 247811 251815 254816
      259815 260818 259820 248822 247827 248832 251842 255852
      262868 266876 272883 274886 279887 283888 285890 285894
      285907 286919 290939 292941 297943 305942 307938 307932
      307926 308919 311914 317914 327911 340911 344912 348917
      353923 357934 361941 366941 368941 368938 375930 380925
      386918 389918 387922 386929 385934 382942 379948 375951
      370952 366954 361964 356972 346989 343998 338007 335016
      330023 318037 314043 313046 310047 305047 288049 270043
      266041 260041 255039 250040 245042 239042 237042 233045
      232049 233054 234058 236062 247074 259085 265091 274095
      281100 287108 292115 302119 306122 309126 312130 314133
      323149 320153 316152 311151 308155 307159 311161 317167
      335175 338177 344178 347177 350174 350169 349165 351162
      355160 360161 362151 359142 357133 354123 352113 351107
      354104 360097 367093
 0.01 367093 375087 381078 385073 388069 396061 398053 399046
      398041 399032 399023 397017 395002 393995 393987 395981
      399977 406968 414959 421951 429945 447933 471928 474928
      477930 482932 484933 485937 484941 482942 479944 479947
      479951 480952 489958 491964 492967 495970 498975 496982
      495985 495990 494999 488009 482019 482034 487045 490051
      493054 505055 511056 518055 534045 544039 552034 555032
      556029 558021 560005 563989 564980 565969 567952
 0.01 465722 464715 461711 457702 453697 452693 449687 448684
      448680 439679 436680 435682 435688 434694 435701 434707
      432713 428721 428726 431731 441729 444728 446729 447735
      441737 438741 436741 433739 432742 434747 435754 437756
      440750 439741 444742 449742 456748 459749 462745 463740
      462733 462728 464723 465722
 0.01 323926 323922 319920 315922 315926 315929 314932 314937
      314943 316945 318943 319939 319936 321932 321928 323926
 0.25 558988 558972 557958 553933 552927 550922 544916 538911
      532903 526898 521890 519887 515885 508886 503888 503890
      505896 504900 500909 499916 500921 505931 507942 510953
      515962 518965 522965 526958 527953 528950 530951 535960
      536968 533972 529972 526975 524981 522984 515991 508995
      504002 500011 499017 500023 502028 506031 512035 516037
      520036 528032 536031 542027 548021 553012 556000 558988
 0.25 483857 482854 480850 479847 478843 475843 473842 469841
      466843 465846 466851 466856 468858 470859 474859 476860
      479860 480859 483857
 0.25 463841 461835 458831 455831 453833 452838 454842 454847
      452849 449848 446848 445852 445856 439856 436854 433852
      430850 425850 418849 414847 411844 405843 402842 399843
      394846 390849 387853 385858 384864 385873 388879 396883
      402891 404894 404898 402906 398920 389943 384954 379963
      369982 362991 357996 352998 351005 347009 342018 339022
      336027 335032 334041 334046 334051 329053 327055 326058
      328062 329066 328070 325074 322077 311075 305075 298074
      279065 268061 259057 248051 243048 237049 239054 243058
      248060 251063 259071 265078 274085 283090 288093 292096
      299104 307112 312120 316120 318115 321109 324104 327097
      330096 339102 342100 343092 343089 341086 344085 350087
      354085 360075 363072 368070 371068 374062 378057 380050
      381041 381032 383018 385004 386995 387988 391977 403959
      409949 416940 423933 431926 436922 440918 445908 448904
      451900 458891 461886 462883 455875 451872 451867 455862
      460859 457854 456850 458848 463841
 0.25 395789 391787 388786 387782 384779 379777 374776 370779
      364787 356796 352799 349802 344805 342808 344809 341813
      335816 331818 324819 319821 315821 305817 301812 298807
      296801 293798 287798 281800 272806 270812 267816 264821
      263826 264831 267836 267847 269853 273859 278859 282856
      287854 292853 299861 301865 303871 305874 308874 311874
      315877 316885 317890 319892 323893 334889 339888 344885
      345881 340879 339876 339872 340867 342855 339850 340845
      344847 349848 353848 357844 360839 360832 362825 366822
      373814 376810 380807 391801 394795 395789
 0.25 338830 338829 336828 336830 336832 336834 337836 337834
      338832 338830 338830
 0.25 324161 324160 322159 320160 322161 324161 324161
 0.25 269802 268801 268800 267798 266798 264798 263799 261800
      261801 261803 263804 265804 267804 269803 269802
 0.50 552990 551982 549974 546971 543976 540981 536987 533990
      529995 525998 520000 515003 511007 509014 513019 516022
      522025 528025 533024 538022 543017 546012 548005 552990
 0.50 528920 528916 526913 523910 519905 516904 513905 510911
      510916 512924 515931 517936 522940 524939 525936 526928
      528920
 0.50 441897 442892 441888 437885 426887 422883 420880 422877
      429867 432862 427860 423856 420856 415857 413858 412861
      407866 405871 405880 409884 413887 413892 408904 403918
      399931 394942 389953 382965 377976 371985 365995 358007
      352016 350022 347027 346029 346033 347040 350055 352060
      350066 352071 357071 363068 367065 369057 372053 374048
      374044 374035 374027 377020 379014 380006 382990 393968
      407949 420929 427919 434910 438903 441897
 0.50 380789 381786 380786 378786 376787 375787 376790 376792
      377792 379792 379791 380789 380789
 0.50 358819 357818 356818 354819 354821 354824 356823 357821
      358820 358819
 0.50 353833 355830 353829 351828 349829 347830 346831 346833
      346836 348836 350836 351835 353833 353833
 0.50 310835 311831 309829 305826 301824 298819 297811 293807
      288806 284806 280809 276813 273817 268824 267830 269834
      273837 277840 282840 288839 291839 297840 308837 310835
 0.50 304091 305087 303084 296080 290077 283074 276071 269068
      269071 271073 277077 283082 289085 296088 302091 304091
 1.00 286829 286825 285821 284819 281818 278819 276822 274824
      273826 273828 273832 275833 278834 280834 283833 285831
      286829
 1.50 280829 282827 280825 279825 278826 276827 275828 276830
      278830 280830 280829

$$




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