Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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723
FXUS04 KWBC 261843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST

MULTIPLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THESE TWO SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POSSIBLE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM. ONE
SUCH DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EMERGE OUT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NE TO SLIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL EMERGE OUT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE TMRW TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE
OF THE OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS... WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE AND FCST.


SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATL...

A WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM TX/WRN GULF COAST TO A SLIGHT DIP IN
THE WESTERLIES WILL RESULT A WRN/NWRN RING OF FIRE AROUND A
SOUTHEAST BERMUDA RIDGE. THE MOST IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES WITHIN
THIS WEAKNESS IS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH TX AND ANOTHER
SIMILAR FEATURE OVER ERN LA/WRN MS. THESE TWO IMPULSES DO NOT MOVE
MUCH... PERHAPS SHEAR OUT... AND STRETCH FROM MEM TO LRD BY THE
END OF THE FCST PERIOD. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE MID-ATL BACK UPSTREAM
TO THE OH VALLEY... A VAGUE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL IN
VICINITY WITH ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
IN THIS CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MID-ATL... DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INTERACT WITH THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE LAST FEW GFS AND ECMWF RUNS WITH AVAILABLE HI-RES
GUIDANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW.


SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...

MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION... AS A 594 RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS WEST OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ESPECIALLY NM.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE WAS BASED ON THE MESOSCALE AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE.


MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 540173 537163 534149 533144 527142 522138 516136 512134
      510130 508125 506120 504109 505100 506094 508091 507086
      505073 504065 501054 498044 494034 491030 490024 490010
      487004 486999 481989 481980 480973 477966 477958 476951
      475946 476934 471908 472895 475885 471862 471849 471838
      472826 472817 473815 471813 465809 461806 458803 453804
      450807 448810 444810 444801 444798 441793 435787 430791
      428805 427814 427826 424835 423839 424842 425850 423854
      424858 426858 430860 432865 431869 425878 418884 419887
      423891 423896 422899 418902 413900 413909 415912 421912
      426913 427918 428925 425931 423935 422942 421953 420958
      419962 407972 395984 387990 383994 382999 380004 378005
      376003 369998 365996 358998 352006 347006 343008 339015
      341019 343022 341024 337027 334030 330032 326033 321034
      315033 312032 309033 307030 308026 310024 308020 306020
      303023 301025 301028 299031 296034 294029 294025 296021
      300017 304016 320007 328992 344982 357985 361982 366982
      374977 378975 381972 385970 386966 386961 384957 388949
      388929 393917 393909 394902 394895 393888 392881 390876
      393867 397859 406846 411838 412828 410824 411817 411806
      412801 411794 409789 407782 403773 397765 397758 398753
      399749 398747 394748 391747 389741 385738 376742 373739
      370732 367724 363717 360715 356714 350718 346721 344725
      342736 342748 344755 346757 348758 348760 348765 349770
      348773 345773 344770 343766 342765 338769 332778 325785
      322788 316787 305799 290805 283807 276804 267802 268792
      263786 259784 254785 247790 242799 239808 238815 240821
      242825 246826 254828 259828 262825 262822 263820 267823
      269825 267827 266832 270834 278837 284840 288850 290855
      291862 291869 289874 286881 280899
 0.01 280899 276904 274907 273911 270932 269944 268952 267962
      269969 270974 272976 272978 268980 262982 260984 259989
      259993 256995 250997 241997 240999 240003 240008 241010
      246017 250024 248030 247032 245034 237033 233039 232047
      231058 233073 235080 240084 250090 261100 266105 273107
      275111 276115 278120 282122 287127 292132 298135 302137
      304136 306134 310132 314133 316132 322130 326126 321119
      319117 316119 312119 311114 313111 321109 327113 332113
      335113 336116 336119 338122 344126 343137 342142 345145
      337151 335159 333166 335172 340170 343172 345168 344164
      342160 353149 351146 355144 362144 368138 366135 363132
      362130 363127 368122 365119 361127 358132 356133 354131
      352128 355123 356118 354113 351111 348110 346106 346100
      347098 349100 352102 356102 354097 356094 360094 363092
      368093 370090 366088 365085 369077 371072 373070 373075
      374080 375082 381083 382086 383090 376094 374100 376108
      371109 371111 374116 378117 382112 385109 389109 390105
      385099 390086 392084 395084 395089 394092 394096 396097
      398095 398090 400085 402083 408078 401065 401060 406061
      407067 409068 414069 417071 420076 420072 423068 425072
      424078 423086 423089 426091 431099 436099 440099 443104
      442108 442112 445118 451122 453125 450128 448132 449136
      451138 449141 447143 451151 453152 455150 458146 461148
      466146 469147 468151 466158 471161 476158 478158 479160
      479166 480170 481176 480186 482196 481203 479208 481211
      483212 493217 497225 500231 504239 507245 512242 516238
      518236 517233 513217 513212 514207 518201 523197 528189
      540173
 0.01 497657 496652 494648 490646 483655 467676 463682 458687
      455700 455709 457717 459727 458734 453747 452750 452754
      453759 455762 451769 449775 450780 451782 455786 457788
      460788 464787 465784 469772 477744 479735 481728 486715
      491703 495689 494683 495679 497670 497657
 0.01 481007 480005 478005 477005 476007 475007 474009 474011
      475014 476013 478013 479012 480009 481007
 0.01 433035 431032 429028 429020 425019 420018 415019 414023
      417027 419031 424032 428033 431036 433035
 0.01 395048 395046 394043 392041 391038 389038 387040 385040
      383040 382040 381042 381044 383045 385046 387047 388047
      390049 392049 394050 395048
 0.01 393059 391058 390057 388059 389061 391061 393059
 0.01 375189 375188 373187 372186 371185 370184 368183 368182
      366182 365181 363181 361180 360181 359183 361184 362185
      364185 366187 367188 369188 371189 373189 374189 375189
 0.01 386058 386056 384054 383056 382058 384061 386058
 0.01 387029 387027 386025 384025 383026 384028 384029 386031
      387029
 0.01 383063 384061 382058 381060 380061 379061 378062 378064
      379065 380066 382065 383063
 0.01 371026 370021 370016 372013 370010 369010 365012 363018
      365023 361023 358022 357026 359029 364029 368028 371026
 0.01 354808 352801 351793 350785 348780 348776 345774 343774
      341777 340782 337786 330796 336797 337804 344812 348820
      347822 343823 339821 337816 333813 330811 326812 319813
      314816 311820 311828 307829 306826 304829 308833 309836
      309844 314847 318844 321840 328839 339839 341833 342829
      344828 348826 352822 354808
 0.01 326102 326100 325098 323097 322098 321098 320099 320100
      318101 319103 319104 321105 323106 324104 325103 326102
 0.01 300842 300840 299839 297839 296840 295841 294843 294845
      293847 293849 293851 294852 296853 297853 298854 299853
      298851 298849 298848 299847 299844 300842
 0.01 291041 291035 288033 283032 279032 273033 270034 268040
      266044 268048 272050 276048 282049 284049 287047 289043
      291041
 0.25 521170 522166 521161 518154 513144 511138 507136 502124
      500118 499109 499100 498092 495081 493066 492059 492047
      491041 488035 482028 480027 477026 474029 472036 471042
      472046 474052 478057 478063 475068 471069 468065 466064
      462064 459070 450064 444064 441061 434068 434073 436074
      442074 449081 451083 451086 449091 449095 450098 453098
      454095 454091 456086 458080 460078 462081 464087 464091
      465097 460096 456099 458103 460105 465104 468108 473110
      476111 476114 476118 475121 473123 472125 473129 478134
      483137 485142 486149 487156 488162 486164 486168 487171
      491177 491181 492184 495189 499191 505192 508190 511186
      514180 516177 521170
 0.25 484700 483695 483692 481693 479696 478699 476702 475705
      475708 475711 478709 480707 481706 483703 484700
 0.25 471081 472078 471078 470079 469080 468083 470084 470083
      471081 471081
 0.25 471957 472945 472932 467916 462881 459872 456869 454868
      450860 445860 442865 440874 434885 432892 432899 433902
      443911 445917 446925 451940 450944 449947 441950 435948
      429950 427952 425955 426964 426968 424969 421973 416978
      409982 399990 395994 392000 394005 399009 393013 393018
      397020 401021 406019 408014 408010 405008 401008 399009
      398006 405997 407995 411994 414996 417001 419003 419008
      425011 428013 432014 434017 435026 437033 436040 439045
      441046 445046 447043 445037 444033 443029 441026 442021
      446022 447026 451025 453023 454011 451011 449009 448005
      448997 449994 452993 456005 459012 463013 465016 467008
      466001 465991 465988 467984 469978 469972 469965 469962
      471957
 0.25 463025 463023 462023 461022 460023 460025 461026 462026
      463025
 0.25 451840 451833 450826 448824 443823 439823 435823 438827
      438830 438835 440842 444843 449842 451840
 0.25 440093 441091 440090 438090 437090 438093 440094 440093
 0.25 404794 404785 401778 398779 396782 392784 388783 384781
      380776 388768 391763 391758 389755 387753 384753 382755
      381759 364754 359757 358763 362767 368772 370782 372788
      374789 374794 374798 373800 369799 367801 364806 362812
      360816 356821 356827 356832 353839 348842 348844 350847
      353848 352850 350855 349858 351864 350870 348874 346876
      343874 342872 339868 334871 330880 329883 330887 332893
      331897 328899 326901 322901 318903 311903 308903 307901
      306897 306893 307886 305877 305869 302868 299871 294880
      289889 287894 286899 283914 276943 274958 274964 275971
      279975 282976 284974 290970 290964 291961 293960 297963
      298970 301975 296977 288979 283983 280985 282990 281993
      276991 270994 267997 264001 261006 262013 265018 274022
      281023 287021 290018 291015 293006 295001 293997 293994
      295993 301990 304985 304978 314973 316969 318963 320957
      323952 327947 332943 335942 339942 344942 347939 350927
      354930 357937 359944 357948 352951 348954 345959 344964
      344971 348974 355974 361972 366967 369966 371962 374950
      375943 375936 379924 382919 383911 384905 386898 388893
      386886 384877 382880 380884 379884 378877 380874 382869
      383865 382861 384857 387857 391852 394848 398844 402840
      403835 402831 392815 400804 403799 404794
 0.25 374051 370048 365047 358047 355048 354051 350055 350059
      346061 346064 350065 354066 356069 357071 359070 362068
      364065 368064 371061 368057 371055 374051
 0.25 362738 362736 361736 361733 360731 359729 357729 355730
      354733 354735 354737 354739 354742 354744 354746 356747
      357747 359746 360745 361744 362742 362740 362739 362738
 0.25 355075 356073 356071 355070 354071 353071 351073 351075
      352077 354076 355075
 0.25 356846 356843 355843 355846 356846 356846
 0.25 342096 340091 337089 338082 337078 333076 327077 327080
      330083 332087 335090 334096 338098 342096 342096
 0.25 337058 337056 336054 336053 334052 332052 331052 329053
      327053 326055 325057 326059 327059 328060 330060 332060
      334059 336059 337058
 0.25 321048 322046 320045 318046 316047 315047 314048 313049
      314051 316050 317050 318049 320049 321048
 0.25 306812 304811 302811 302812 302813 304813 306812
 0.25 298097 300091 299087 295082 289077 283074 276070 271067
      266060 261056 258055 254055 246056 243057 240060 240066
      246079 256088 264092 269095 276099 283101 285102 286100
      288097 290098 294100 296101 297099 298097
 0.25 303914 303912 303909 303907 302907 301905 300905 299903
      297901 295901 294903 294906 294908 295910 297912 299914
      300916 301916 302916 303915 303914
 0.25 256818 255817 253817 252818 250818 249816 248816 247817
      248817 250818 251820 252820 254820 255819 256818
 0.25 248806 247805 245807 245809 246809 247808 248806
 0.50 504150 500141 493135 495130 498126 499121 497116 495106
      492105 490106 486108 486113 489116 489120 487124 485127
      486130 487136 489147 491151 496153 504150
 0.50 500165 499162 498161 497160 496159 495157 494156 493155
      492154 491155 491158 492158 493161 495162 496164 498165
      500165 500165
 0.50 492096 493090 491084 489081 485078 480079 478082 480085
      481089 480092 480098 484098 487095 490097 492096
 0.50 491071 490068 490063 489060 489055 488050 488048 485046
      482047 483050 485053 486058 486063 486067 487070 489071
      491071
 0.50 484128 483126 482125 480125 478126 478127 478128 479129
      481129 483128 484128
 0.50 480047 478045 477044 476046 477047 478047 480047
 0.50 469944 470938 471933 469930 467922 464915 461905 456897
      454888 452884 450881 446882 445884 443889 443893 448897
      450901 450905 450913 454935 454946 452951 450954 447956
      442956 434953 431954 430956 430962 431966 431968 428973
      422977 417980 414982 412986 419000 423005 429011 432011
      435014 437025 443009 445998 448988 451980 454976 457987
      458991 460993 462986 466979 466967 468959 469944
 0.50 452078 451077 451075 450074 449073 448072 447070 446070
      445068 444067 443067 442066 441067 440069 439069 440070
      441072 442072 443073 445074 445075 446075 448077 449078
      451079 452078
 0.50 449976 449974 448972 448971 447970 445970 444971 444973
      444976 444978 445981 445983 446983 447982 447981 448978
      449976
 0.50 444041 443038 443037 442036 442035 440035 439036 438036
      437038 438040 439042 441042 443042 444041
 0.50 399802 399796 399790 396789 382786 377791 380794 385795
      386798 387803 386806 379810 378807 365813 374821 373829
      375837 378837 381833 383826 385823 386817 388810 395807
      399802
 0.50 398837 398834 398832 396833 395835 395837 396838 398837
      398837
 0.50 383900 384894 383893 380897 376898 373905 370911 368920
      366929 366933 367936 369936 371933 375926 378919 379909
      380904 382902 383900
 0.50 375771 374767 372765 374760 371757 367755 365755 361758
      361762 364764 367767 369771 371777 372779 375774 375771
 0.50 377841 377840 376839 375837 374839 373840 373842 372844
      373846 374848 376847 376846 377844 377843 377841
 0.50 375869 375866 375864 375862 375861 373860 373859 371858
      371855 369854 367855 367856 367858 367860 367861 369860
      371858 372860 371862 372864 373866 373867 374869 375869
      375869
 0.50 369804 370802 369801 367802 366804 367806 367807 368806
      369806 369804
 0.50 371889 372885 370882 367875 366866 362863 360865 358871
      356876 355881 352886 346890 344893 341895 340899 335906
      333904 329905 326908 321911 316911 312909 308909 306911
      304915 303923 305928 305931 303931 299927 299924 300921
      297915 295912 292907 292898 291893 289895 287901 286911
      284923 279945 276961 277967 281971 285968 287965 287957
      290953 297952 302948 305945 303943 303939 305935 307936
      307939 307943 310947 312953 310953 307966 308969 311970
      313965 317955 319950 317944 318939 322937 326936 328932
      337934 342923 345919 348919 353916 355912 362903 363897
      366894 371889
 0.50 369958 369955 368953 364954 361954 359956 355959 352962
      350965 352968 357968 361967 364965 368961 369958
 0.50 365842 366840 364838 362839 361841 361842 361843 361845
      361846 363847 364845 365844 365842
 0.50 363054 363053 361052 360051 359051 358052 356053 355053
      354055 353057 354058 355059 357059 359059 360058 361058
      362056 363055 363054
 0.50 352062 352061 350061 350062 352062 352062
 0.50 333058 332055 330055 329055 328055 327056 326057 327058
      328058 330058 332058 333058
 0.50 304901 304897 304893 305886 304880 304874 302872 299875
      298880 296885 295889 295891 298895 299899 300903 304903
      304901
 0.50 289089 279084 272078 265072 259063 255061 252063 249067
      245069 247073 249077 257083 266087 276091 287091 289089
 0.50 286003 286001 284001 282001 281003 281005 282007 284006
      284005 286004 286003
 0.50 275997 273996 272997 273997 275997 275997
 1.00 466935 466932 465931 465930 464929 463930 462931 461932
      460933 460935 459937 459940 460941 462942 464941 464940
      465937 466935 466935
 1.00 443000 444990 441984 439978 437971 435973 431978 429983
      430987 432995 433002 435009 438011 441006 443000
 1.00 426987 427985 426983 425982 424982 422982 421982 419983
      417984 416984 415987 417989 419990 420991 422990 424990
      424989 426987 426987
 1.00 372761 370759 370758 368757 367757 366757 365757 365760
      366762 367763 367764 369765 370763 372761
 1.00 375916 375913 374914 374916 375917 375916
 1.00 373920 373918 373920 373920
 1.00 338919 339917 338915 337914 335914 333915 332915 330915
      328916 326917 325919 326921 328921 330921 332921 334921
      335921 337920 338919
 1.00 324924 324922 323921 321920 321919 319919 318920 319921
      320922 321924 323925 324924
 1.00 310918 311916 310914 308914 306915 306916 306918 308920
      309920 310919 310918
 1.00 302891 303888 303886 303884 303882 303880 302878 301877
      301878 299879 299880 299882 298884 298887 299889 300891
      302891 302891
 1.00 299933 297931 296929 295929 293931 293935 294937 294940
      293943 294947 296948 297945 297941 297939 299935 299933
 1.00 296918 295916 293913 292911 289912 288916 288918 287922
      286925 286929 286932 288931 290927 292926 294923 295920
      296918
 1.00 282964 281962 280964 281965 282964
 1.00 265080 265079 264078 263077 262076 261075 260074 260073
      258072 257073 258075 259077 260078 261079 262080 263080
      264081 265080
 1.50 443993 441988 440985 436982 433984 433987 435992 437997
      436002 437007 439005 441000 443995 443993
 1.50 421987 421986 419986 418987 419988 421988 421987
 1.50 302884 302882 301882 300882 300884 302886 302884
 1.50 292916 292914 291914 291916 292917 292916
 2.00 442993 441991 440990 440989 439990 439992 439995 439997
      439999 440997 441995 441994 442993
 2.00 437004 438002 438000 438999 438000 437002 437004 437004

$$





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