Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290626
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SEVERAL STREAMS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL S/WV ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE THRU A LARGE PART OF THE CENTER OF
THE NATION THIS PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH ON THIS
LARGE SCALE IDEA..BUT A BIT LOWER WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL OCCUR..ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
 IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS..MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
CONTINUES TO SOME DEGREE IN THIS LATEST MODEL RUN..WITH SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT EVEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ONGOING WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER TX.  SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS DOING AN ACCEPTABLE JOB WITH THE TX
CONVECTION..INCLUDING THE ARW..NMMB AND HRRR..SO THE 1ST PART OF
THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARDS THESE HIRES SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A MCV EVOLVE FROM THIS
CONVECTION..AND ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU TX IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH..EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TX EARLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY..ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY IN THE LERIOD AND LATER IN THE PERIOD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINS AND MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.
FARTHER NORTH..THE MCV LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD..AND "MIDDLE" STREAM S/WV ENERGY PULLING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF DROPPING DOWN TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES..SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE EVEN HERE..ALTHOUGH THERE WAS
GENERALLY BETTER QPF AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE HIRES AND GLOBAL
GUIDANCE.  MOSTLY 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MOST LIKELY..ALTHOUGH SOME  ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.


...MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE WEAKENING MCV/SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
TRAILING AXIS OF VORTICITY EXTENDING TO THE GULF COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES HIGH THIS
PERIOD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TN VALLEY.  WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS
VORTICITY AXIS..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE..BUT GIVEN
OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF MAX TOTALS..AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WERE KEPT IN THE MODERATE RANGE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 536218 537209 536198 538188 542175 542162 543157 542154
      540148 536139 531125 527118 524109 521101 520098 517097
      512094 505094 502096 501099 496103 488100 482095 476093
      472093 470095 465097 460101 461106 464107 467105 476107
      480105 484106 488109 492114 494119 490122 485126 479126
      476126 474129 469129 466127 459122 449116 448118 447123
      443130 445136 444145 449143 454142 458143 462145 459147
      454149 451156 451161 448171 447178 448188 447195 445199
      441205 441208 444207 449204 453201 457194 460186 462183
      463178 461174 462168 465164 468163 470166 473174 478178
      482184 481190 479193 476194 471194 468196 465198 464202
      464206 465209 468210 472211 474209 480208 491202 496199
      505198 508199 511202 514208 517213 519216 523217 528219
      532222 536218
 0.01 530747 529738 526728 525722 521722 514722 507726 498732
      493738 487745 480758 476765 472772 465784 451792 449794
      445795 437796 433799 429800 425797 423794 420790 418785
      422783 427781 430779 436778 440771 444765 449759 459751
      462745 463735 455734 452732 448734 444738 438742 430742
      425748 414764 406768 400773 396774 394770 391764 386762
      382767 375781 370788 366793 356803 348817 344825 343829
      342835 342840 342848 341859 339868 331869 323868 316864
      308865 304865 304868 301884 298901 296909 291915 288920
      289922 294929 291937 283941 274950 270956 265963 262968
      261975 263990 267005 272011 275012 279011 284002 288994
      292986 293982 296982 296984 295992 297000 301006 304013
      317038 320044 321048 324050 340055 350057 354056 357056
      359060 363061 368062 370065 374071 375080 379085 380087
      384086 389081 391082 395083 400077 406076 412075 419077
      424084 425094 420102 422105 427106 430104 433104 437105
      440104 446104 451105 454105 455103 454100 452097 447092
      446087 448084 453083 455081 455075 454071 454061 453051
      452039 453026 453009 454002 455996 459988 462977 475949
      482933 488919 494904 496894 497882 501873 505861 507851
      508846 508839 513822 516814 519803 520794 522786 525778
      528772 530758 529751 530747
 0.01 397984 392977 387974 384974 379981 375990 375997 373001
      376012 379021 381026 384028 389020 390006 388001 389997
      391992 394988 397984
 0.01 338784 336782 332782 321784 308790 300789 292786 287783
      279780 273781 270783 267787 262792 255795 241802 239805
      239809 242817 246823 250831 253836 258842 263848 269852
      274855 282857 289854 296849 301845 301842 299840 287829
      285820 282818 282814 287808 301813 308813 313812 319811
      324807 329802 332798 335792 338784
 0.01 307032 307027 305025 300021 292018 285014 280015 274019
      268021 269025 272026 277030 284033 292033 297032 301032
      304034 306033 307032
 0.25 524190 524187 523184 522184 521182 519181 518181 516181
      515182 514183 512183 512184 512185 512186 514188 515190
      516191 518193 520193 521192 522192 523190 524190
 0.25 512765 511756 507750 504749 500751 496757 480788 468810
      450831 447838 442842 438843 436845 431850 424855 418860
      414868 411875 404878 400876 394874 391873 388874 383886
      377889 372894 369899 363903 357905 351910 345916 338919
      331922 323927 294944 282956 277963 273969 270975 269982
      269990 272997 275001 278996 282986 298970 307964 310963
      314965 316971 316977 312990 309998 310008 314017 318023
      323029 328033 333037 341037 347034 350031 351028 352996
      353989 356981 359974 363968 371963 378960 390953 394947
      398944 403941 408939 416938 423935 425935 424941 421947
      417951 417955 418959 424974 427984 426990 424995 421003
      418010 413024 410030 408040 405045 401049 395051 388049
      383046 376044 370045 368048 369051 377054 382055 388055
      393055 399061 404065 407066 409065 415063 420058 425058
      432060 435059 436056 436048 436033 438022 440013 440999
      441987 444979 449970 456959 462948 466939 469925 474900
      476887 478872 483858 487845 489829 490819 493813 496806
      500798 507784 511773 512765
 0.25 400790 397786 391784 387783 382786 374795 367804 359812
      352821 349826 347832 347840 349846 352852 351857 348862
      348868 349870 352872 360872 367871 371868 376864 377862
      376857 369849 364847 361845 360842 359837 360832 366820
      373811 393798 398794 400790
 0.50 447965 454951 459941 461934 460921 464910 465902 462888
      466877 472861 477836 484819 494790 491780 481799 471821
      462841 453857 444867 438874 440883 439887 435890 429896
      416909 409916 399922 395922 392919 392913 392907 394890
      391888 390890 388895 384906 382911 375913 369912 363913
      360916 359921 356925 353929 346933 345935 345939 341941
      336941 338936 336932 330933 325935 316941 311944 299955
      283965 275975 273984 274988 277985 283978 290972 303961
      310956 313954 318954 320959 321966 320979 318988 315996
      313003 314011 318018 325024 328027 333028 337025 340020
      344008 348988 351978 353973 356969 370958 376950 379945
      382941 391936 399934 409933 417930 425926 429923 434923
      433930 430937 428943 430949 433952 436951 438950 439952
      437956 439969 440972 442971 445968 447965
 0.50 424034 424032 424029 423027 423026 422027 421028 421029
      420032 421034 422036 424034
 1.00 365956 362952 359951 357952 352956 348959 344960 342958
      340958 337960 336967 337971 339973 344969 347968 349969
      353967 357964 361960 365956
 1.00 337997 338991 336989 334991 331993 328997 326001 325005
      325012 327015 331013 332008 335004 336999 337997
 1.50 358958 356961 352964 353962 354960 358958

$$




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