Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260841
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 26/1200 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER LAKES

HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY DAY 1 WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP
SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY--WITH AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE.  THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TOTALS FROM BEING
HEAVY---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 10-.25"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  A MIX
OF THE SREF MEAN AND HI RES ARW/NMMB USED PRIMARILY.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY

TO THE SOUTH OF THE OVERRUNNING SNOW REGION---PW VALUES WILL BE
RISING DAY 1 TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF.  PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME ACROSS THESE REGIONS--ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH
DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD.  AN SREF MEAN TYPE AXIS USED DAY 1
WITH MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.  HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED DAY
2 FOR POINTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA

THE NEXT AREA OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE B.C. COAST LATE DAY 1.  ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  AT THE MOMENT---THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WA
CASCADES INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA---WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY DAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEAST COASTAL FLORIDA

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA FRIDAY.  ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS DAY 1.


DAYS 2-3...

NWRN US/N-CENTRAL ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW COME THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN SHARPLY FROM WESTERN
CANADA. KEPT GOOD WPC CONTINUITY HERE IN AN AREA WHERE THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED QPF SPREAD. STAYED AWAY FROM THE
UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS PER COORDINATION WITH THE MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH DESK. AN OTHERWISE COMPOSITE GUIDANCE
SOLUTION WAS THEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO INCREASE AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN/UPSLOPE LIFT.

GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY. PER
COORDINATION WITH THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH DESK LEANED ON A
BLEND OF WPC CONTINUITY WITH A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS/GFS PARALLEL. MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EMERGENCE LEADS TO
A BETTER FOCUS FOR STEADIER PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


LOWER MS/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE S-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/SE US/MID-ATLANTIC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE WEEKEND EJECTION OF AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED SWRN US MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS LEAD REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP FAR SERN US MEAN
RIDGING...WITH PACIFIC-ORIGIN MOISTURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. A SLOW-MOVING AND WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
A WIDE SWATH OF ORGANIZED PCPN. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER VICINITY OF THE FAR LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE
INFLOW AND UPWARDS OF 1.75" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD FUEL
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS CONSIDERING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH DESK...MAINTAINED CLOSE WPC
CONTINUITY BUT BLENDED IN SOME NEW IMPUT FROM COMPATABLE
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE GEFS/GFS PARALLEL.

ORAVEC/SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 539205 538199 536191 531179 529175 527171 523166 521162
      512154 505145 499138 490132 480126 475123 471119 473113
      476110 477107 475106 472103 470103 469107 468112 467115
      463119 463122 465124 475142 478143 481145 486148 488150
      488153 484156 487164 489168 491176 494189 494194 493199
      490205 488208 481208 475212 474217 476218 479219 481222
      479226 474229 467232 463235 463238 464241 478260 483269
      489278 492282 498287 502288 507287 510283 513279 519271
      521264 523254 522246 521239 519233 520224 522220 526219
      532219 535214 539205
 0.01 486808 485795 484786 482776 477770 474769 470770 467769
      464770 459773 457778 456782 454789 454795 453801 449816
      448821 443827 436835 432840 429847 426854 422860 399878
      386883 381882 372882 361880 347881 331884 323885 315887
      303894 298894 295893 287891 283891 278894 274898 269902
      268904 266910 266917 268923 270927 274934 276941 277958
      275960 276964 279971 283976 289980 295981 300980 311975
      313979 313985 313994 312011 309020 308027 302044 299059
      300068 298071 294073 294079 288082 283084 278088 278096
      282101 286104 292102 305098 310095 314088 322077 332067
      334065 338066 343066 346068 353070 356072 360073 364075
      367079 372091 376098 380097 393091 400089 403090 405094
      405097 404100 401103 396103 389111 383113 378116 375122
      375130 380133 383133 385132 389132 393131 398129 405126
      411124 425120 430117 433116 433110 432102 434097 435094
      435090 433085 432082 432079 435075 442075 447079 449080
      450075 448070 444065 438061 434055 434043 435037 437033
      437022 437011 438000 440993 445980 459959 466945 467940
      467936 471927 471921 472915 472908 477889 480874 482859
      482851 482846 483842 483832 484829 484824 486808
 0.01 475161 474156 472152 470148 466144 463144 459145 456146
      454152 455157 457162 459163 464162 469164 473162 475161
 0.01 466710 465697 463695 459695 456697 455702 451708 448717
      449726 450731 452735 456737 462731 465725 465715 466710
 0.01 453223 454220 453218 451217 444217 440217 436218 433217
      431219 432227 433230 432233 432236 433242 436243 439242
      443243 446241 445238 444233 445228 451225 453223
 0.01 381995 366983 362974 362967 361965 359964 355967 353972
      352978 350980 340000 336010 332017 329021 327025 323033
      320038 319042 320045 328041 335036 343032 357020 363014
      370010 375007 377001 381995
 0.01 287804 288800 286797 281797 276796 270796 260793 251798
      247801 244805 242810 242814 244816 245814 248810 256805
      265808 269808 272805 282808 285807 287804
 0.25 514264 513255 511247 509242 506240 501234 499234 499236
      499240 502249 501252 499252 496252 493255 493261 496269
      500276 502277 504276 506271 507267 510266 514264
 0.25 464895 464888 461888 458893 456897 453908 450918 448928
      445939 446943 449940 453932 455927 456923 458912 462903
      464895
 0.25 433976 434970 434964 430965 424968 420973 413984 405996
      396004 393011 393020 396025 402029 409027 412024 417018
      420012 426999 431983 433976
 0.25 377071 377069 376068 376066 375066 374066 375068 376069
      376071 376072 377071
 0.25 350932 351928 349925 344926 335925 332928 332932 326928
      323924 318923 308923 298925 292929 289933 291937 299940
      305941 311940 319937 323936 329936 334943 330945 324947
      321948 321952 327953 333952 337948 334945 338942 337941
      343940 350932

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 534212 535201 534192 531184 529179 532176 529167 525165
      521162 517153 515145 510129 507120 504114 500105 497097
      493089 490085 487080 482075 479070 468060 462057 459057
      456059 451068 445067 440073 437078 433085 428091 421097
      415103 411110 409119 416121 420125 423129 426129 430125
      435124 439126 438129 434133 430140 429147 429151 431161
      429163 427163 423157 419156 416156 414160 416163 421165
      423168 420172 416172 415177 416182 422183 425178 428176
      429179 424188 426193 430193 436202 434209 430209 424205
      420210 423215 421222 424225 423232 420231 416238 416241
      416246 420248 423251 428252 434250 442250 451250 464252
      471253 478257 486272 492280 499282 504283 508280 516263
      520257 520252 518247 518241 518233 519229 520227 524224
      534212
 0.01 513718 507689 505679 502671 497657 491638 487635 483635
      481634 475638 469640 455645 451649 449653 445662 443669
      442675 441682 439690 435704 430719 427725 423730 418745
      408762 402773 394782 387792 382795 380798 376798 370795
      365790 354784 347783 343783 340786 337790 332801 329806
      326811 322812 321814 317819 314826 311831 304842 296852
      283866 274873 270876 266880 264889 263897 263907 262914
      262923 261929 259936 255941 248947 242953 240958 239965
      239972 242978 242987 239995 238002 238005 240006 244007
      249004 253000 259996 269991 272989 277991 279995 285994
      292994 299992 328988 333986 339983 348976 357969 364964
      373957 384952 390947 393947 396945 399943 403943 410942
      415943 422943 429943 435940 449929 453924 457920 464910
      472897 475890 477881 482869 487856 491843 494833 497817
      501803 502798 502792 504783 505775 507766 509759 511752
      511744 513733 512725 513718
 0.01 509037 509027 509014 507996 504980 498965 497962 495962
      493966 492970 491980 490987 493008 493018 494022 494028
      494036 495043 496046 496051 498054 500055 503052 509037
      509037
 0.01 413075 413071 412066 407065 400069 397070 396069 396064
      394064 390070 388075 388079 391085 393087 396087 402081
      404079 407079 409080 412076 413075
 0.01 319810 316808 309809 304809 297809 287807 279802 272797
      268799 266801 266804 267809 269812 271813 275815 281816
      286816 292816 298816 303817 309817 315816 319810
 0.01 320044 319035 318031 316030 314028 314024 311015 311007
      309002 306000 301001 298004 291010 285018 281026 279038
      278047 281053 282057 283061 286064 289065 291067 290075
      290080 291085 292090 294094 299095 302093 306089 308085
      311075 314062 320044
 0.25 509243 509236 508232 504219 502214 501206 501194 507191
      512191 515189 514181 512175 496156 494145 488134 485130
      480126 475123 469120 466120 463124 457134 452146 449147
      445146 439144 435148 434153 435159 438163 442169 445175
      445180 443184 444191 451193 455191 459188 466180 469178
      473178 476179 486183 490187 494191 493195 492197 487200
      476202 469205 464207 459207 455210 449211 439215 435218
      433222 434230 437234 443239 450240 461242 467242 471244
      477247 483248 486246 486240 485236 486232 491233 496237
      501244 505246 507245 509243
 0.25 489762 488753 486744 486735 485730 483728 481726 480723
      478719 478713 476709 473706 471705 468706 465711 464718
      465727 467730 467734 465741 462747 460756 459766 459773
      457781 456791 454799 454808 453816 450834 449841 448851
      448859 449863 452865 456862 459856 467843 480817 485806
      487796 488788 489775 489762
 0.25 389870 390863 389858 383850 380847 376844 367838 361833
      354827 345822 340822 333824 308852 297865 290873 284881
      279887 275897 272907 270921 267942 265955 265960 268964
      274968 283971 289972 293972 303968 315956 330943 343932
      349929 354926 360919 371906 378896 383886 386879 389870
 0.50 496223 496216 494210 489206 482204 477206 471208 462212
      452215 441219 441224 444226 447226 458229 463232 468230
      473227 478225 489225 494226 496223
 0.50 486169 487164 486160 485156 482153 477148 470144 466143
      462143 459146 457150 452152 447152 443150 438149 437154
      439157 445161 450167 452174 453176 453180 453186 456184
      459180 459177 456175 454172 453168 455164 459159 463161
      465164 470168 479171 483171 486169
 0.50 365876 363869 364863 363857 353844 350837 343835 338836
      334837 327842 317851 306862 296871 291878 287883 283889
      280897 277904 276914 275932 274945 275950 277953 282956
      289959 296962 299962 303959 307955 310947 314940 319934
      330925 341914 349902 359890 363883 365876
 1.00 483217 483214 482213 481212 479212 477212 475213 473214
      472216 473217 474217 475217 477216 478217 480217 482217
      483217
 1.00 343875 343869 342867 339868 331863 327862 321863 312868
      305872 297878 292885 287893 284902 283910 283916 282927
      281935 282941 284944 290945 295942 297939 303931 309924
      315919 322912 328906 333898 338890 342880 343875
 1.50 322896 322887 322881 321877 316876 308878 302880 298884
      294889 290895 288902 287910 286927 287934 290935 292934
      296930 300924 303920 308914 315905 322896
 2.00 313890 312887 309884 305885 302886 296892 293898 291906
      290910 291916 291921 295920 299916 304911 308905 311899
      313890

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 531200 528193 523188 522178 518171 514168 511170 508170
      504167 497165 490165 488164 487160 486156 483153 477150
      475143 483143 494151 501152 503150 502147 500138 498134
      496132 491128 487123 483118 480110 477102 475095 468078
      465072 461068 458060 455054 442028 438022 433018 428018
      423022 417036 413042 409047 404052 400052 398055 392060
      385061 385072 381072 379069 373065 370063 369065 371072
      373078 377083 388090 389088 387085 386081 389080 391082
      397085 399083 403081 406082 407085 406091 405101 402107
      400106 397108 392112 386115 383122 382124 385125 389121
      392119 395120 397122 398125 397130 405125 407123 411124
      418123 421127 420133 419138 418141 416146 414148 408150
      406153 408154 412151 412156 412160 415165 417164 419165
      420168 416175 414177 410177 408175 406176 408180 410181
      416181 418183 420182 425174 428175 428180 425186 425189
      427188 430186 432182 436174 439175 439172 441170 443173
      442183 439185 438189 436194 440199 441202 440208 437215
      433216 431219 428221 423222 426227 427233 425236 422236
      419237 420240 422243 425244 430246 433245 438245 444244
      450244 458245 462246 465245 473246 482248 483245 482242
      481233 478226 482222 485222 495218 499222 501222 500218
      497211 494209 492210 486207 482208 470210 464211 460211
      457209 454203 454198 455193 461189 465183 467179 465176
      463172 460172 458168 459164 463165 466169 470170 475169
      481170 482174 484177 497181 501182 501187 499196 510192
      513191 516193 520194 523193 525195 525198 526204 529203
      531200
 0.01 491672 489665 486660 480662 477664 475662 473657 468655
      460651 452657 448661 446668 439694 437701 435706 425701
      422698 420690 419681 418678 416678 411678 406680 400682
      395686 385694 377702 361719 347734 316768 302785 300788
      301794 309802 309806 307810 304814 300819 294822 285827
      279836 276846 276863 277879 279883 280890 282892 281897
      278900 275905 272909 268914 266917 266920 261931 252953
      255977 257983 257990 264995 269999 273998 282991 291984
      301977 308970 315964 323954 327950 330947 343928 357910
      367892 379875 384870 387865 394856 401846 404842 408836
      420818 430795 434783 440772 460729 470708 475696 478690
      484686 488684 489680 491672
 0.01 485879 485873 484869 480862 475857 470852 468855 468861
      469873 470883 468893 470898 472896 475893 480887 483882
      485879
 0.01 447211 446209 445206 444208 444210 444212 446212 447211
 0.01 450141 450135 448131 447126 443123 440120 436118 433121
      431125 426134 423145 422152 423157 426161 430161 432154
      432147 434143 437139 439139 442142 450141
 0.25 487215 487214 486213 484213 482213 480212 479212 477212
      475213 474213 472213 473216 475216 477216 478216 480216
      482216 483217 485217 486218 487217 487215
 0.25 473216 471214 469214 466216 459216 452218 447219 440222
      434224 432226 433228 440227 447227 454226 461225 466220
      471217 473216
 0.25 471158 471155 470155 469152 467151 466151 465151 464154
      465156 465157 466158 468159 470159 471158
 0.25 471115 471113 472111 472108 471106 470103 469103 468102
      467102 465102 465103 464104 464107 464109 464110 466112
      467114 468115 469116 470116 471115
 0.25 463181 462179 462178 461178 459177 457178 456179 455180
      455181 455183 457183 459183 460183 462182 463181
 0.25 451156 452151 451151 448152 445151 442149 440147 438146
      437147 436150 436153 437157 439158 442160 445161 448160
      450158 451156
 0.25 453103 452098 448095 445099 441101 434104 425105 423110
      421113 412115 409117 413118 422117 429115 437111 442112
      445115 448113 451107 453103
 0.25 449078 448075 448073 446071 445070 444070 443069 443070
      441071 441072 441073 442074 443076 443077 444078 446080
      448079 449078
 0.25 410784 411775 409764 406749 401734 399731 396731 390730
      384733 379738 371746 363755 360767 355780 351791 339813
      332824 326833 311852 306854 304860 302867 300872 297878
      296884 296893 296901 296906 294913 291925 288938 287943
      287947 290952 292954 296954 300951 308944 323925 337906
      351888 358878 366870 373861 381850 387840 392830 398818
      404806 408795 410784
 0.25 412071 412069 412068 410067 408067 407068 408069 409070
      410071 412071 412071
 0.50 461223 461220 459219 457218 456218 455219 454219 452219
      450220 448220 447221 446221 445223 446224 448224 449224
      450224 451224 453224 455224 456224 457224 458223 460223
      461223
 0.50 398786 393761 391755 388756 384753 380755 376759 374763
      369771 365781 360790 354798 352802 351807 346816 340825
      335832 331842 329852 325864 318882 313891 309901 298916
      295926 295933 297935 306928 312923 325909 337894 348879
      360863 372846 390810 395798 398786
 1.00 379796 380793 380791 380789 379787 378786 376787 375787
      375789 374790 374792 373794 373797 373799 374801 374802
      376801 377800 378798 379797 379796
 1.00 363838 363833 360832 356825 353822 350822 347823 345826
      343834 342843 343853 344857 347858 352853 356847 361841
      363838
 1.00 331887 330885 327888 324892 322894 318898 316900 313905
      313909 318907 320904 323900 326897 328893 330889 331887
 1.50 350837 351835 351833 349831 349833 348835 347835 347838
      348839 350838 350837

$$




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