Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 28/0000 UTC THRU MAR 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES

HEIGHT FALLS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY--PRODUCING
AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.  OVERALL---LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
EVOLUTION DAY 1---WITH A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN--SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES-.  THERE STILL IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AWAY
FROM THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THESE AREAS--BUT HIGHER IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS.   HEAVIEST
TOTALS DAY 1 EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUANS OF SOUTHWEST
COLORADO---SOUTHERN WASATCH OF UT---THE MOGOLON RIM AREA OF AZ AND
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SIERRA.  FOR QPF DETAILS---THE HI RES
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NAM WERE USED PRIMARILY GIVEN THEIR HIGHER
RESOLUTIONS.  HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY

DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRENGTHENING WESTERN TROF--SHORTWAVES IN THE
BROAD WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCENTUATE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY OVERRUNNING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC.  AN AXIS OF MODERATE PRECIP AND SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE
FROM NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI---WITH ICING
POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH
CENTRAL TX.  FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST---WELL DEFINED FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST.

FLORIDA

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD DAY 1 INTO SOUTH TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS---ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN A WIDESPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.
DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD A COMBINATION OF THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH
A MAX DEPICTED ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE A MAX SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS IS FORECAST.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 491137 491131 489128 482124 480120 479116 477106 473097
      472093 468093 462100 455095 448094 445094 443091 439088
      438093 437096 435095 431092 429092 431095 430098 425105
      426110 426114 424117 419114 413112 409100 408095 406092
      406087 408083 412081 414077 415073 415070 414064 412060
      406055 400053 395051 391049 386048 383048 380046 378040
      375026 377022 380022 385020 388018 392014 394011 396005
      398993 402985 407975 409973 409968 409955 409942 408932
      407925 405919 403913 400910 395906 388901 383899 378900
      373902 369905 357918 351926 345935 341943 339948 336952
      326963 322966 317966 310962 296953 287949 279947 265947
      261947 258949 249954 245956 243961 237965 233973 233981
      235985 237989 240994 246996 249998 252001 255008 260009
      263011 269015 278014 289014 298019 304022 307026 310030
      314032 321037 325040 328043 327053 330056 334058 342059
      344059 346062 349075 352082 354090 355101 357108 357111
      355111 352109 347103 344093 340084 336080 331079 328081
      329087 331097 332109 332115 333121 335126 340128 347134
      352138 357140 364144 367146 365152 364155 367158 374158
      377167 382174 384177 381180 379182 376181 370179 364178
      359178 354179 351181 348181 347176 345170 343165 340162
      333160 327158 321158 317160 314163 313168 314174 316178
      319181 324187 333199 339206 345212 351218 359225 362229
      366230 375230 376225 374218 367211 360204 356201 353197
      353191 355189 358191 366196 377207 383213 391217 396218
      401220 403225 399226 393224 390227 390233 393237 393243
      397246 402249 408252 418253 427254 435254 446253 455253
      458252 459249 460247 459245 460234 459223 460217 459211
      457203 456198 457189 457182 454178 448171 448159 450153
      449148 443137 441133 438131 434133 434139 432141 430140
      427137 423134 423130 425127 432119 434116 436113 440114
      441118 444121 448131
 0.01 448131 450132 452132 454130 456128 458125 461125 465125
      468126 471128 473130 474132 477134 479135 482136 485137
      489138 491137
 0.01 322806 321802 316801 311800 307801 293792 290794 284794
      275792 270792 264793 258794 253796 250800 250804 251809
      255813 260819 261823 259827 260832 264834 268836 271841
      277845 280845 283844 287845 290845 294843 299836 304829
      306824 309820 315814 319811 322806 322806
 0.25 445196 445194 446191 446189 446188 444186 444184 443183
      442183 441185 441188 442190 442192 443193 443196 445197
      445196
 0.25 429207 430204 430202 430199 429197 428197 428194 428193
      426192 424191 422192 422193 422195 422198 423200 423201
      424203 426205 426206 427207 429207 429207
 0.25 428168 427167 426167 425167 425168 427169 428168
 0.25 425170 422166 421162 419156 415153 412148 410143 407140
      404139 394137 390137 388136 388134 396126 400124 401118
      400114 398110 388106 388102 391093 392091 392087 392080
      390071 388065 384063 380059 378053 374049 369048 359049
      356051 353056 354062 356069 361078 364100 368110 369114
      367117 363119 355116 348110 344105 343101 341094 340092
      337093 338099 338113 340118 344122 353127 363129 367132
      370136 374139 379143 387150 392150 395153 396159 395166
      395170 396173 400176 403178 406178 410176 418173 422172
      425170
 0.25 396210 396205 395200 392194 389192 385191 377187 370184
      362184 359186 362189 368193 373198 378203 384209 391211
      396210
 0.25 363218 363216 363215 362213 361213 360212 358211 357212
      356212 356214 358216 359217 361218 363219 363218
 0.25 336169 336167 335167 334166 332165 330164 329164 327165
      327166 327168 328168 330169 332170 333170 335170 336169
 0.25 303812 303809 302808 296805 289801 279798 275797 268798
      261800 257803 260806 264807 266808 267812 266817 267819
      270818 276819 281820 292817 298816 302813 303812
 0.25 286983 286979 284976 279971 274967 268963 265962 261961
      255964 253966 252972 257978 262982 268985 275987 282985
      286983
 0.50 393207 391202 387199 384196 381193 378191 373189 372193
      375197 378201 381204 385206 388208 392208 393207
 0.50 386120 385120 384115 383113 380111 378113 376116 374118
      373120 372125 372129 373132 376133 378131 380128 381126
      383124 384121 386120
 0.50 388091 389087 388084 385079 384074 382069 376060 370051
      368050 361051 358053 357058 359061 357063 358069 365075
      367079 369086 373095 375101 377103 380101 387093 388091
 0.50 354120 353117 351115 349113 348111 346109 344107 341107
      341111 342113 343116 346118 348121 350122 354122 354120
 0.50 288806 287805 285805 285806 287806 288806
 0.50 268976 268974 266972 264971 263970 261969 259969 259970
      259972 260974 261974 263975 264976 266976 267976 268976
      268976
 1.00 379080 379075 378070 377066 373062 370060 367060 366063
      366066 369070 371074 372079 374082 378083 379080
 1.50 376073 376071 376069 375066 373064 371063 370063 368063
      368066 369067 370068 371069 372071 373071 373073 374075
      376073

$$




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