Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER GREAT LAKES---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROF INITIALLY STRETCHING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY.  AN
AXIS OF HIGH PW VALUES 1.75"+ WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROF WITH THE
MOST ANOMALOUS VALUES CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A SEPARATION BETWEEN THE BEST CAPES BEING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT WHILE THE BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS TO THE NORTH.  EARLY IN THE
FORECAST...CONVECTION OVER IA SHOULD BE DRAWN MORE EASTWARD ALONG
THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE.  CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WI AS A
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  HI RESOLUTION MODELS WERE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN
OUR PLACEMENT OF MAX QPF AXIS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS

SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EXPECTED CONVECTION OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION---CONVECTION MAY ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE
WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED FRONTAL TO PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE ACTIVITY ORGANIZES.  A BLEND
OF THE HI RES RUNS WAS USED TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE.  IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LAST AS LONG AS THE CONVECTION TO ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND ADJANCET PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.  THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
HERE--WITH OVERALL LIGHTER AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

WESTERN GULF COAST

NOT MUCH MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD.  ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF
TX...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST OR OFF SHORE.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE TROF WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THAT IDEA WAS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS A CIRCULATION CENTER
FARTHER OUT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT OF THE TWO
TROFS.  EVEN SO...THERE MAY LIKELY REMAIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF AND AREAS
INLAND OVER COASTAL TX/SOUTHWEST LA.  HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THAT HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY AFFECT BOTH AREAS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THEY WILL BE AND WHEN THEY WILL
PERIODICALLY ENHANCE.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 520271 522260 523248 524242 526238 528231 534217 537211
      539200 538190 539183 541181 544174 547166 548157 549144
      548140 549134 552129 556113 557100 558089 558076 556069
      554063 550058 545054 543051 540050 537051 534053 530057
      527062 524069 523072 522077 523086 523108 524118 522125
      520135 518146 516152 512156 505155 502155 500157 491167
      491173 493181 495187 499193 503199 508204 510210 510217
      508219 507218 497209 491206 486205 480206 475209 465215
      462217 462223 463225 467225 477224 485225 489232 493237
      492241 490240 482241 480234 478233 477235 475238 474243
      474247 475251 477258 480264 485278 489285 492285 495287
      500291 504295 509294 513291
 0.01 549797 545784 543780 539778 534748 530738 525730 518724
      515722 510723 500726 495729 490730 482734 478737 474741
      462753 453767 451772 449778 446788 442811 439822 437827
      435832 433838 430841 427845 423847 414849 408849 404848
      393844 389842 386838 383830 380819 379813 377808 374807
      369808 364810 362814 358823 358829 359835 364843 381852
      388857 390861 391864 387867 386872 385878 381880 367887
      358892 351897 345903 342907 341912 335933 333937 328940
      322940 320940 318938 326895 323891 319888 320881 320875
      322851 322847 323842 321836 310822 307817 307813 310812
      315811 318809 323801 323795 320792 310788 303784 299782
      293783 283785 278790 275797 255802 250803 247806 242811
      244817 248819 256822 266839 268843 272847 277854 280863
      281867 279872 270888 264896 261904 253918 251921 251928
      251943 251955 248962 242970 240973 241978 240989 244998
      249003 257007 263008 268009 271011 274009 275005 280001
      288998 295993 299992 302992 306994 310995 318001 324001
      326003 329003 333006 335004 367984 383974 391976 399979
      411991 420992 424989 428985 449958 461944 469938 473935
      475937 475941 472950 472958 471961 469959 467957 464959
      460962 457966 433990 429994 429001 425013 425015 428018
      433018 435016 444010 446008 448010 446015 445018 444021
      443028 445034 445036 447037 465030 471026 474024 478020
      482040 483045 486048 490049 495049 497045 497041 498028
      501018 504008 511988
 0.01 511988 514981 516973 520957 522948 525939 526930 528921
      531902 536888 538880 540872 542863 544855 542852 542845
      544837 546829 547819 548798 549797
 0.01 506852 505848 503849 502852 498856 496860 494864 491868
      491873 493876 494879 496878 499875 501870 502865 503860
      505854 506852
 0.01 484120 470105 468102 465102 460103 452109 440108 436112
      433114 429118 426124 426127 428127 432126 437122 440129
      435143 434150 436155 436159 436163 432169 427179 427185
      432188 435189 437187 441184 447185 451184 455184 457182
      461180 461165 462161 464159 468156 473154 476149 477142
      478132 479124 483123 484120
 0.01 453223 454221 454218 452217 451216 449216 447216 446216
      445216 444217 443218 443220 445221 446222 448222 450223
      451223 453223 453223
 0.01 423027 423020 421017 418013 416010 413012 413017 414022
      416024 417031 417036 421036 421029 423027
 0.01 393810 391808 389808 387810 387811 387813 386815 386818
      386820 388818 390817 391815 391812 393810 393810
 0.01 393057 393055 393052 392052 390052 388052 388054 388056
      388059 387061 387063 389066 391064 391061 391059 393057
      393057
 0.01 382072 382069 380067 378065 378064 377062 375062 375064
      375066 376069 378071 380072 381072 382072
 0.01 376771 376767 374766 370763 366757 362754 360751 360747
      361743 358740 355741 350743 343745 341751 340755 338757
      335760 332767 333772 340771 344770 345768 349767 351765
      354766 360766 363771 366778 372777 376771
 0.01 299086 297082 293079 283074 264063 261059 260055 261052
      265048 269046 273044 275042 275039 275034 274032 270031
      264032 260035 256039 253040 249042 245042 240042 232047
      228052 227058 225068 228074 231077 238078 242080 252087
      262091 263092 267093 272092 279093 284092 299086
 0.25 549107 550096 549086 547079 544075 539076 537078 535081
      535088 534097 532106 533115 537118 541116 546112 549107
 0.25 533206 531195 530189 528185 525182 521180 514174 509167
      506167 502170 502176 503180 507188 513196 517203 522211
      527214 531212 533206
 0.25 541826 542815 540805 537805 533810 530814 528822 524834
      521847 519853 519863 517869 513874 508883 502894 497906
      496914 497923 497932 499937 502937 504936 507931 512921
      517908 521894 526884 529879 529875 528870 526864 528860
      534849 538837 541826
 0.25 516270 517263 516257 514250 512244 506237 499228 499234
      500240 503252 502256 500258 495255 492256 491260 492266
      495272 498276 502280 508280 512279 515275 516270
 0.25 498786 498779 498773 496767 494765 489765 484770 477782
      474790 472797 466814 464817 461818 455820 447831 442837
      438842 425870 420875 415873 409871 402871 400873 399878
      404884 414893 415895 415899 413903 411905 406909 399910
      392909 385908 379909 374910 371909 366906 362906 359908
      350918 343932 340939 339946 338958 341966 344969 352970
      359969 366965 371962 378960 393963 399965 403965 407964
      419957 426956 432954 439950 445945 452937 461925 469912
      472906 475898 478890 479882 482864 487847 492830 495815
      497799 498786
 0.25 391947 392945 392943 392940 392938 392936 391934 389934
      389933 388934 387934 387936 386938 385940 385943 386944
      386945 388946 389947 389948 391947 391947
 0.25 308928 309923 309917 307908 306903 306899 307890 308881
      307870 305861 304856 302853 297847 294845 292845 289854
      288862 285879 283887 280895 262917 261922 262928 263937
      263947 260954 256960 250965 247972 246982 248986 250989
      257993 262993 266992 271990 275989 278986 282979 291968
      300956 303949 305941 308928
 0.25 295830 296823 294818 291815 288813 278811 271810 262807
      258810 257815 263822 270826 277830 286832 293835 295830
 0.50 539823 539818 537816 534819 533822 532825 531827 530833
      529836 529841 531843 533843 534840 535837 536834 538830
      539826 539823
 0.50 514266 514263 513258 512255 511252 509249 508247 506249
      506251 506255 506258 507263 508267 510269 513268 514266
 0.50 505273 504270 503267 500264 499263 496260 494259 494261
      494264 495267 497271 499273 501274 503276 505273
 0.50 518884 515884 512887 510891 508895 505901 505906 507909
      510906 511902 513897 516893 517887 518884
 0.50 488808 488798 487793 486791 481793 478798 476805 475813
      476822 478830 481831 482829 485822 487816 488808
 0.50 480854 481848 480842 479836 478833 472831 467828 463827
      458829 455835 453838 449840 444842 439849 438858 439869
      440876 437884 433890 424900 420907 419915 415920 410924
      405929 401935 403944 404947 407949 414950 421949 428947
      434945 440941 445937 450932 454927 462914 465908 468900
      476867 479860 480854
 0.50 384922 384918 382917 378916 375917 362920 357921 353923
      350927 348932 346939 347945 348950 347954 345960 348961
      352961 358961 363958 367954 370949 373943 377931 382927
      384922
 0.50 303931 304921 303914 300899 302885 301878 298872 295871
      293873 290879 286891 281903 279909 275913 271918 268924
      267939 267948 265955 262960 257963 253966 250971 249980
      251986 256988 263988 273984 278980 282975 288965 295955
      298950 301943 303931
 0.50 288822 287820 284819 281817 279817 275817 272818 270819
      269822 272824 274825 277826 280826 283825 285825 288822
 1.00 463883 464876 463869 463863 462856 460854 455854 451860
      448869 446880 444890 442899 438908 434914 429921 423926
      418932 417936 419939 424940 429938 436935 440933 441929
      446923 456910 460903 461898 462893 463883
 1.00 297937 297928 294920 290914 287914 284915 279920 277922
      276927 276943 272958 261967 256972 255976 256978 258981
      263981 266979 270978 273978 275975 278968 282962 287958
      292952 296945 297937
 1.50 458884 458879 457876 456873 454875 452878 451882 450884
      450889 451893 453896 455893 456891 457886 458884
 1.50 292941 293939 293937 293935 292933 292932 291931 290929
      288929 286929 285930 284931 284933 284935 284937 284939
      285940 285941 286943 286945 287946 288946 289945 290945
      291943 292942 292941

$$




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