Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020949
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM SECONDARY FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME FROM THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
THIS PERIOD IN A REGION OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN
AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
(1.50-1.75"). CONVECTION HAS SHOWN TRAINING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO TO THE NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT DUE TO BROAD 25+ KT 850 HPA INFLOW OVERRIDING ITS
SURFACE INTERFACE.  THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET ARE
SHIFTING THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS MORE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.  THIS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN ACTIVE UNTIL ~16Z AS A POOL OF 1000+ J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO.  UPSTREAM CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA, POTENTIALLY PROLONGING HEAVY RAIN-RELATED
ISSUES ACROSS MO.  DETAILS REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWED GREATER SPREAD -- EVEN WHEN
CONSIDERING THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF -- SO KEPT CONTINUITY
HERE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.  MOST CHANGES IN THIS REGION WERE TO
ADJUST FOR RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING BY SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.  DETAIL ISSUES PERSIST,
BUT ON THE WHOLE, THE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE HERE PER RECENT
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HEAVIEST WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PHASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ON DAY 2...WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 3 AS ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.  FOR DAY 2...PREFERRED A QPF
SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE NAM/GFS
LIGHTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT POSSIBLY CORRECT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH THAT COULD DISRUPT THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH.  DISCOUNTED THE HEAVIEST UKMET
AND SUSPICIOUS ORIENTATION OF THE CANADIAN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DUE TO THEIR DISTANCE FROM THE CONSENSUS.  BY DAY 3...THE
PREFERENCE SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE HEAVIER NAM/GFS OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND SLIGHTLY AWAY FOR THE LIGHTER ECMWF GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRENGTH OF THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  IF THE
FFG VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WERE ANY LOWER...SUFFICIENT
OBJECTIVE SUPPORT WOULD EXIST FOR OUTLINING AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREA.  HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING FFG VALUES AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.  LIGHTER
BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST...BUT WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW RAPIDLY
VEERING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF
ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN...PRODUCING LESS WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER QPF
VALUES.

ROTH/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 454626 458628 460635 461644 460649 458656 456660 451672
      445679 443684 443691 441703 439709 436715 430722 424724
      417724 409722 401716 393712 390709 389700 390689 391683
      394678 398668 402658 408650 413648 417648 419649 422648
      424646 427642 434634 439631 454626
 0.01 542804 539798 537791 526782 521777 515775 505778 489782
      475789 468793 462797 450808 442817 436822 433825 428825
      411828 405828 398828 381829 372832 367833 361832 355830
      346830 339832 333837 327846 321862 319865 315866 311865
      309863 302853 296851 287852 283854 281857 277864 272871
      269878 269885 269888 271890 273899 275904 275913 273921
      270937 268943 265949 259963 261970 266978 267982 266986
      264992 260008 260011 262013 269016 274015 277014 284017
      307011 332994 343986 350983 355979 361976 364975 368976
      372982 375989 381000 384002 387002 394000 408996 416993
      419991 421987 439964 443958 442954 436949 435946 436943
      439942 444937 444933 445929 457923 464922 469921 472922
      475929 471936 467944 464950 455966 457975 457984 458989
      460991 466997 469003 473007 475009 477008 480017 483023
      486027 488029 491034 488042 487046 486053 486063 487068
      490072 494074 497072 500072 503071 505073 508074 515077
      523079 527079 529077 533072 536067 538059 540051 540048
      538037 534029 534016 534003 532994 528987 528980 527976
      524969 523957 515943 512923 515907 521891 530876 538837
      541829 542820 542812 542804
 0.01 519274 521264 520258 518250 515244 512239 508233 503235
      502242 502249 502252 499253 495252 491246 488244 486246
      486249 488255 490262 493267 497273 500278 504282 510284
      514283 519274
 0.01 508154 508146 508143 506142 500136 493127 489119 483097
      478089 470082 466082 466091 465097 463099 456097 455093
      458081 456078 452075 449072 448067 448058 449050 450046
      448042 448039 447036 441034 438025 432016 423013 420015
      416015 412014 409015 406022 406029 406037 408042 409047
      409055 411064 414069 419069 425070 429073 432078 433083
      428090 429095 433098 437101 440105 444107 450108 455108
      459111 461117 463123 467132 472141 477147 483154 491163
      497164 500165 501163 505159 508154
 0.01 310816 306810 306806 304802 302798 299796 290795 282792
      273790 263792 255795 248800 243807 244813 242817 243822
      243825 245827 251812 266821 273822 278824 283823 287825
      292824 303823 309820 310816
 0.25 505852 505839 505833 504825 502809 500804 497801 494799
      491800 483804 476806 462813 452822 446828 440832 432836
      425840 410845 396850 389854 381855 363854 356851 348850
      345851 342854 339860 331874 322886 317887 313886 310885
      307887 304889 302893 300899 300903 303906 302911 300915
      292927 284959 285968 288977 290981 294981 299982 303981
      311979 318976 330971 339968 346970 351970 354969 362965
      372959 379961 387962 398962 402961 404959 409952 411942
      415936 420930 428919 434912 439908 442905 447904 455901
      461900 469897 475893 481890 488885 494879 498873 502865
      505852
 0.25 447643 445641 442642 438646 429658 419666 413670 408674
      405680 404683 405689 408695 412700 417705 419706 424705
      428700 431692 434677 437662 444650 447643
 0.25 266804 266802 265801 263801 261801 259803 259804 259805
      260806 261807 263806 265805 266804
 0.50 493838 492830 492827 492821 488816 483816 477819 471821
      462823 457826 447834 436840 425846 418849 411852 398856
      392858 387861 380864 372865 365863 359861 353859 349861
      346863 340873 333886 329891 326898 319907 311915 303926
      299932 296939 296945 301949 305948 306952 304958 304962
      305965 306968 310971 313972 317971 323967 333961 339959
      345961 347964 350966 356963 361959 368957 380954 393950
      397946 402942 410929 414924 417918 421912 424909 435899
      444891 449889 457886 468883 475879 478874 487861 491851
      492844 493838
 1.00 473845 474842 473838 469838 461840 451844 442846 408861
      399864 392869 386875 379884 367895 362901 358905 356910
      346924 341931 337934 333936 331941 334941 338938 342936
      346944 354948 356951 361953 368949 374949 379948 388943
      393938 398930 402922 408913 414906 419900 430885 443874
      457861 462857 467855 472850 473845
 1.00 358881 357876 352877 349879 347882 344886 342891 340894
      338899 340900 343897 346895 349892 352888 355885 358881
      358881
 1.50 440858 440856 438857 434859 429860 424862 420863 416865
      405871 398873 394876 390879 387886 384890 380893 376898
      373903 367913 364918 365920 369920 371925 376928 377941
      379943 381943 385940 389936 393930 403906 409898 413893
      416886 418879 420875 430868 437866 440858
 2.00 398908 399903 399897 397893 394892 387895 383900 378905
      373911 378913 380916 382919 384922 384927 385932 387931
      391924 394917 398908 398908

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555840 555829 554817 553803 549794 546786 542779 538773
      534771 531768 527768 519770 512774 505773 496771 493770
      489767 474758 463753 456751 448749 435745 424743 389739
      369743 358745 354746 350748 342750 340752 335753 320760
      314763 308767 303771 298775 291780 287780 283779 264781
      260783 257784 256786 257794 253796 252801 254807 258811
      263814 269817 277816 279812 278808 269800 267797 270798
      277800 282807 285811 286814 284816 275830 265844 261850
      259858 258865 258871 259873 256889 259904 263909 264914
      262917 263938 262943 259943 254939 244941 238947 235951
      234957 233961 233967 233975 233983 232988 233992 238997
      242001 245006 250011 256014 259014 263017 265021 268021
      272019 274016 277012 278006 281989 282984 284979 288970
      293957 301944 309932 312926 317922 328911 335905 342900
      349897 355893 361892 364890 370890 375891 378897 383902
      387909 396908 401904 404897 405894 409892 415891 423887
      433884 443883 449882 452885 453889 451893 447902 438916
      438918 440922 443928 452928 456929 456936 455946 455950
      457953 461959 465964 470970 477974 485979 488980 493981
      500979 508979 517983 525986 534979 534975 532972 531967
      528963 524958 521952 519949 519944 517938 517932 519920
      525913 529904 533896 538886 541877 545869 548858 555840
 0.01 537215 538210 538206 537198 532185 525176 514168 510166
      503165 498165 496171 496177 499183 503188 508193 515203
      522213 529222 534221 537215
 0.01 518279 520270 521256 520244 518233 515223 513218 511214
      507214 507219 508223 507225 505223 502221 497220 494222
      494229 493232 489234 485234 481236 479241 480244 482249
      481254 476262 474266 472274 473279 475283 476289 478293
      483295 487296 495294 510289 516284
 0.01 405952 405945 405938 403935 400933 396935 394938 393943
      393949 393954 396959 400959 403956 405952 405952
 0.25 550827 550819 549813 547806 545800 540790 538787 535784
      526779 519780 513782 501784 495784 491782 485776 477772
      463763 454760 445758 423753 415750 409750 403752 393756
      386760 383764 384769 384773 386777 389783 389785 386788
      381790 378790 375791 370794 361798 357799 352798 343795
      338795 342790 344786 346779 344771 339768 333768 327770
      322772 315777 308784 306789 305794 306800 309802 316804
      316808 315814 313819 308829 305833 301836 292841 283845
      277852 273858 270864 270869 272880 275887 276895 278901
      282902 289897 292895 298893 307889 315887 321886 328887
      336886 343884 354879 362874 370870 374867 377867 379869
      383877 386879 392880 397881 404880 416877 426873 437870
      441868 447868 452869 456872 459876 461880 463887 462894
      459905 459910 461912 465909 471906 477905 479904 482907
      487907 494902 497900 502898 507897 512895 518891 523887
      527883 533873 539864 545852 548842 550827
 0.25 515277 517270 517262 517254 516248 513244 509240 505241
      503248 500251 494250 490251 486256 484260 482267 482274
      483281 485285 491287 500286 509284 512282 515277
 0.25 498967 498962 496958 491953 484951 480950 477947 479943
      477941 471944 469946 468952 471959 476965 481969 487973
      494972 498967
 0.25 280954 280948 276948 268952 263957 257964 255964 254960
      254954 252950 249948 245949 243952 241958 238975 236983
      237988 238992 242998 249003 256005 261004 264002 267999
      268997 268986 268978 269972 271968 279954 280954
 0.50 547825 547817 546812 541801 536793 531789 526788 521788
      515789 509792 500796 495797 490795 484791 478784 473776
      466772 458768 448765 438764 433766 430770 427779 422781
      416781 408782 404784 401786 398791 393795 385800 380800
      376802 367808 361813 355814 349814 345813 344807 342804
      338803 334805 329809 325813 323819 318828 315837 309843
      302850 300851 295850 288854 286858 284862 284870 287873
      292870 296867 300864 304863 305867 309869 319871 334877
      339879 345878 354873 362866 369858 370854 367850 363847
      362842 368837 374831 378826 384825 388824 393824 397827
      402829 407831 409837 409841 406844 398849 391855 388863
      389870 393872 399874 405873 426869 435866 440864 446864
      455865 462867 468875 470883 471891 490891 500891 504891
      509889 522879 528871 534861 540851 543839 547825
 0.50 515272 516265 515259 515254 512249 509248 506253 505258
      501261 491257 488259 486264 484270 485277 487280 492283
      501283 508280 514274 515272
 0.50 484962 483959 482959 481958 479958 479959 479960 480962
      481963 482963 484962
 0.50 420766 419759 417755 412754 407755 402757 399760 396763
      396766 398769 402772 405772 410771 415770 419768 420766
 0.50 264996 264990 263982 262978 261974 259973 257976 255978
      252978 251973 250966 251959 248955 244957 243964 241974
      239980 238985 240990 242994 246998 249000 255001 260999
      264996
 1.00 540823 540818 538812 535806 530803 523802 516803 511804
      496810 489810 483810 472802 465802 459802 451803 443805
      438810 435815 433824 432828 434833 441843 445849 448853
      451855 457855 462854 467857 472864 493878 500879 507878
      519869 526859 534845 537835 540823
 1.00 512271 513266 512263 510262 508267 505269 498267 492264
      488267 487271 488275 493278 500279 504278 508275 512271
 1.00 436852 436849 432848 429848 425848 422850 419851 417853
      415855 413856 414858 417859 420859 424858 427858 429857
      432855 434854 436852
 1.00 411859 410857 408857 407857 406857 405857 405858 403859
      402859 401861 400862 401864 403863 405863 407862 408861
      410860 411859
 1.00 354839 354835 354830 353826 351825 347826 345828 344830
      343834 343838 344842 345845 349846 351844 353842 354839
 1.00 255992 254990 253988 251986 249984 248982 246978 244976
      242980 242982 242986 242988 244992 246994 248995 250996
      253997 255994 255992
 1.50 535827 534817 531814 527814 520814 512817 507821 501826
      497832 493840 492843 489845 482848 479850 477854 479858
      482861 487864 494868 500868 507864 512861 518856 527845
      531839 534830 535827
 1.50 476825 475818 470813 466811 459811 454814 450819 447824
      450829 455831 461832 467832 473830 476825
 1.50 249990 248988 248987 246986 246985 245986 245988 246989
      247990 248991 249990
 2.00 509836 509835 507836 506839 508839 509838 509837 509836


24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 560076 560069 560064 559059 556053 553047 550042 547039
      543033 536027 531023 529021 524020 521017 519019 515020
      512022 509030 512040 519054 524062 528069 538083 543089
      546093 549094 552093 554090 558081 560076
 0.01 558870 556850 553828 551808 546788 546782 544778 541773
      538767 533760 529755 529751 527748 519729 513716 509709
      504706 495700 490697 486691 483685 478681 468671 458664
      444656 434651 428649 422648 417647 411647 403649 401651
      397653 385661 382666 379669 379673 380677 384680 389686
      394690 397692 396695 384699 371705 367708 359710 343714
      326720 310728 307732 304738 301744 299747 296750 290753
      286757 274764 270767 266772 259782 252785 248788 243793
      239799 235806 234810 234814 234819 235825 236830 238834
      240839 244843 252843 254845 256849 258852 260852 268851
      272848 276843 281827 286814 308797 319789 324784 330781
      341776 349774 351772 356771 371768 380767 388768 402772
      406773 408777 409782 406786 401790 395793 384802 376808
      373810 373814 372817 373819 379823 386822 393821 397819
      401818 403821 404827 407838 409841 409845 409850 408854
      405861 405870 409873 418873 430869 436868 443869 453876
      456883 456893 456900 456906 458912 466912 470909 475905
      479907 482907 494912 504919 515924 519926 522920 529904
      534905 540902 547898 551895 553892 558870
 0.01 540203 538191 536180 534165 535157 534149 528143 526138
      524131 522120 518119 516119 516124 518135 520149 523160
      521169 518172 513179 514192 514200 514206 516219 520228
      524238 527237 530234 535223 538212 540203
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 516254 514245 511236 507227 501221
      495216 494215 490216 488220 487226 491234 486241 482241
      478242 476245 475250 474257 475262 476271 478276 480280
      485285 490287 494287 500285 507284 513282 518276
 0.01 500108 501101 501093 501087 499082 495079 492078 488080
      486083 487088 489093 490097 493102 495105 498109 500108
 0.01 465050 466043 464038 462035 459032 454032 452034 452039
      453044 456049 458052 461055 463052 465050
 0.01 258012 259004 257996 256990 257980 260966 257951 254945
      252943 248943 244946 240952 235963 234981 236997 238004
      240011 243016 249014 258012
 0.25 545855 546847 545839 542828 541824 538821 529817 523814
      520812 515812 500822 497825 492825 485825 481824 477822
      473820 470817 463813 455811 450812 446815 439821 436825
      435830 434841 434845 430849 426851 422854 420858 422862
      428865 438864 444864 450864 457866 461868 462872 463878
      463886 461898 461905 463908 466907 468902 472893 476884
      479880 482878 491878 499880 508883 516886 523887 527886
      531884 537877 542866 544859 545855
 0.25 514272 516265 514259 512250 507241 505237 501235 500240
      500245 498249 494251 491250 487253 485258 485264 491272
      493275 498278 503278 505276 508272 510271 513272 514272
 0.25 516764 513757 509751 506745 503739 499734 495727 491720
      485715 483704 480698 472688 462681 457677 449672 438668
      427664 421664 413664 409666 407669 407674 407677 414692
      413695 411697 406701 400705 393708 377715 371719 367723
      362728 356730 342729 333730 325732 319734 312738 309743
      307750 304755 304763 309769 311771 317772 324770 333768
      338766 344762 355754 365751 372748 378744 384741 390743
      394748 398752 403756 409758 418762 424762 430758 434757
      437758 438762 439764 441762 442758 447757 450760 455764
      460767 482776 488778 494779 501780 505779 508776 513772
      516767 516764
 0.25 432790 433785 431781 429779 425781 422786 420792 418799
      417804 416809 417814 419815 423815 427810 429803 430797
      432790
 0.25 288793 289787 285784 280784 274786 267790 259795 253800
      250803 249807 250809 256808 261807 267807 276809 283806
      286799 288793
 0.25 256966 255960 252955 248954 246956 242960 239965 238971
      239979 240984 244988 247988 249986 252981 253975 255968
      256966
 0.50 532870 532865 531861 528856 520847 516845 511843 499841
      493842 488844 484848 480853 481859 484864 493873 497874
      503875 516875 522875 528874 532870
 0.50 497268 498265 497264 496262 494260 493259 492258 491258
      489258 488259 488262 489263 490265 491267 493268 495268
      496268 497268
 0.50 495753 487742 481736 476730 475726 474722 474710 474705
      472698 470693 467690 456683 444675 432670 429670 424672
      424676 425684 426689 426693 421700 418707 416711 413714
      406717 399717 392718 388720 387724 400727 403734 406738
      407745 411751 417754 423756 426755 429752 437752 440751
      443749 448743 451744 454747 459754 463757 471760 479762
      489761 493759 495753
 0.50 454722 454721 453720 452719 451721 452722 453723 454723
      454722
 0.50 460837 458829 456823 451820 444822 441827 443836 442846
      441852 440856 442858 448858 453855 456850 458844 460837
 0.50 430788 429784 427784 426785 424788 423791 422794 421796
      420800 419804 421808 424806 426804 427800 428798 428794
      429790 430788
 0.50 353748 353743 350740 347738 344738 335740 328743 323748
      319754 319761 322764 325765 329765 334764 341760 346756
      351751 353748
 0.50 283800 283796 282792 280792 277792 274793 271795 269796
      269800 271802 273803 276805 278805 280805 282802 283800
 0.50 252972 253968 252964 251962 250960 247960 245962 243964
      242966 241970 241974 242978 243980 246981 248980 250978
      252974 252972
 1.00 515864 513860 512858 508857 507856 503856 500856 497857
      495858 494863 497865 499866 501867 504868 507868 510867
      513866 515864
 1.00 462701 463696 461693 456690 452688 445690 442691 442694
      436698 433702 430704 431706 436709 436714 430725 425729
      424733 430733 434731 435728 443719 445713 449709 454708
      459706 462701
 1.00 442740 442739 441738 440736 438738 438741 437743 439745
      441744 442742 442740 442740
 1.00 248974 249972 249970 249968 249966 248965 246965 245966
      244967 244968 244970 244972 244973 245974 246975 248974
      248974
 1.50 456697 454695 453696 454698 456698 456697
 1.50 444708 443707 442708 442711 444709 444708

$$





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