Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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050
FXUS04 KWBC 300653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

FLORIDA
~~~~~~~
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE TRACK OF T.D. #9 WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE BEGINNING THE RECURVATURE
PROCESS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUAL
NORTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...2.5 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL ON THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  A CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP
OVER THE PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A NEW LOW OFFSHORE GA,
ACTING AS A MORE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DURING DAYTIME HEATING.  GFS
FORECASTS INDICATE 850 HPA INFLOW INCREASES TO 20-30 KTS WHILE
SREF MEAN FIELDS INDICATE 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE.  WHEN
COMBINED WITH EVACUATION ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW JETS FROM THE SLOWLY DEVELOP DEPRESSION, THE
STAGE IS SET FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FOR CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS VERY WET, SHOWING
EITHER STRIPES OF 7"+ TOTALS, OR IN THE CASE OF THE UNUSUALLY DRY
NAM CONEST, LOCAL MAXIMA OF 5-7".  DUE TO THE STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS PLANNED FOR AREAS BETWEEN NAPLES AND FORT MYERS, BOTH
SIDES OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND FROM PALM BEACH NORTH TO CAPE
KENNEDY/CANAVERAL.  THE 06Z WPC QPF RESEMBLES THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF, THOUGH SHIFTED THE MAXIMUM SOUTHWARD
IN DEFERENCE TO THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.  THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH
THE MIAMI FL FORECAST OFFICE.


FAR EASTERN NC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF T.D. #8 WILL BRING THE CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE MOMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM RELATIVELY SMALL...THE EXPECTED AREA AFFECTED BY
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL...CONFINED
TO FAR EASTERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. STORM TOTALS OF 1-3
INCHES AND SPOT AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  USED A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE QPF IN THIS REGION.


SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM.  A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PLANNED, AS
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL MAXIMA OF 3"+ OVER SATURATED SOILS IN
THIS AREA.  FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OF A PULSE NATURE, THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COULD MAKE THE CELLS EFFICIENT RAINFALL-WISE.
 ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PLANNED FROM
NORTHERN KS/SOUTHEAST NE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE 06Z
WPC QPF REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION.


WESTERN GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION INITIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST, WHICH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO SOUTHERN TX. THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE EASTERLY INFLOW MAX TO THE NORTH OF THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID TO LOWER TX COAST, WITH A POSSIBLE SPREAD INLAND OF
PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CELLS DURING DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL
THEN SET OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SET RAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO NOT TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR INLAND.  A SMALL SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
PROPOSED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST.


NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE COAST AS
THE PERIOD ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AS THE 00Z WPC QPF
CONTINUITY WELL REFLECTED THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, LET THE FORECAST
RIDE.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
LIGHT RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE AREA.
 THE 06Z WPC QPF REFLECTS THE LATEST GUIDANCE IN THE REGION AS
WELL AS 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 536182 537166 536159 533155 530151 527150 518145 510145
      506142 500141 492137 483132 473130 467130 464134 462138
      461143 461150 462156 466165 469170 473173 482176 493179
      500175 508183 513190 517195 521197 529197 532193 534187
      536182
 0.01 520263 522253 521251 518244 516237 511233 505230 498228
      490227 471235 465236 461238 449241 439243 435248 435257
      434263 431267 428269 429271 431273 434275 438276 438280
      438287 441294 448297 458294 464292 469290 479288 482290
      485293 491294 496294 502294 507293 512289 515284 517277
      520263
 0.01 225052 228058 235063 239068 243074 244078 248083 259091
      273091 277092 280094 286098 301104 314114 319110 322109
      328110 330109 329106 333104 337104 339106 340104 341096
      345080 347075 352075 356071 360070 364072 367074 368077
      372087 377091 380089 384090 385093 387089 390083 393081
      397083 406073 415069 416063 414061 410055 412042 406037
      409030 412020 415012 417008 417002 418997 420994 424988
      430973 434954 437947 438941 443924 445916 447906 453889
      456879 461871 467856 474840 478834 482829 486823 492818
      500809 503808 506804 510800 512796 516788 515776 515751
      516730 509716 506708 505699 504688 503681 502677 494669
      485661 483659 481659 478662 472667 464652 451661 449663
      448666 447673 448678 447687 445695 443703 442712 440727
      439732 439740 438753 435760 434764 434771 433774 433781
      430787 428791 427796 427800 425803 425809 423811 419818
      416825 412832 405843 402850 399855 395866 393875 389894
      385909 382918 378925 375931 371940 366954 363961 359967
      352976 346983 340989 334993 328990 324974 322966 317960
      313955 307949 298939 291927 284919 279914 270914 266915
      264917 260924 257931 255941 254953 248957 239960 234963
      231967 230997 231004 234008 243014 248017 254019 261020
      265023 275029 280038 282041 280042 277042 269041 266037
      260035 254034 250034 248035 243036 237034 233034 228037
      227039
 0.01 496059 495053 492048 487040 481032 473024 470021 464020
      463020 462023 460030 463043 465046 470051 476059 482065
      487065 489064 493064 496059
 0.01 394794 392786 390783 388782 384785 378789 375792 371797
      364807 359816 357819 358823 358828 360828 363825 366822
      368827 370831 373826 380816 385806 392796 394794
 0.01 385722 384711 383708 381706 370702 357703 351708 348710
      344712 332719 323726 311736 305740 300744 290751 277755
      271758 264763 259767 252771 247774 242778 234786 230792
      229800 224813 222819 222827 221833 222841 223859 224869
      225878 226887 228894 232906 235908 238906 243902 247897
      250891 253885 260887 265888 273888 289887 296885 299882
      300878 299868 301861 302855 303850 305849 310848 312846
      318843 326831 333819 338808 345794 348787 351782 356769
      359764 361762 365760 373751 378745 382738 384729 385722
 0.25 516272 518266 518260 515251 511244 507240 502240 496241
      487240 474244 469250 462255 454265 451275 453280 456282
      463282 470280 477280 486281 492285 497288 502288 507287
      511285 513282 516272
 0.25 482726 481720 477720 472720 469718 462722 458712 455714
      454719 451728 449738 449745 447751 446762 446768 449772
      453780 456783 457788 461792 465791 469788 472784 482769
      484765 484759 481755 478753 475750 474744 475740 477737
      480731 482726
 0.25 455808 455805 453804 450808 447811 444812 440815 439820
      439827 442829 445833 448829 450826 452821 454816 455811
      455808
 0.25 435935 435933 435930 436928 436926 436923 435921 435919
      433919 431920 430921 429923 429924 429926 429928 429930
      429933 429935 429938 430938 430940 431942 433941 434940
      434938 435936 435935
 0.25 433852 433845 430840 427837 424839 420844 415852 410863
      407872 400892 394911 388928 380950 377959 372967 353993
      347000 340008 333012 325016 308022 296030 293034 293039
      294044 298049 301053 301055 292054 270050 255046 243045
      236044 234045 232048 234054 236057 242063 256073 269081
      276086 282088 287090 298092 304092 308091 312090 315087
      320080 326064 332060 341056 346054 353054 356058 361058
      370057 374056 379057 382058 386056 386054 385050 367043
      364033 365027 366022 368019 372015 378010 386008 395007
      399005 401002 406993 410982 413970 420927 424902 426888
      429878 430872 430864 433852
 0.25 384072 384070 384068 383067 382067 380067 378068 377069
      377071 377073 377076 378076 379078 381077 382076 383074
      383073 384072
 0.25 381800 379799 377800 377801 376802 375803 374805 374806
      376807 378806 378805 380803 380802 381800 381800
 0.25 371736 371732 370728 367724 361718 356718 349720 343724
      340727 317761 295764 288765 282767 271772 262777 255783
      247790 241799 236808 235817 233831 232844 232849 233854
      238862 242865 248865 253864 259865 264866 270865 277861
      284853 290844 297837 303831 314826 321818 331801 340779
      346770 351764 360756 367748 370741 371736
 0.25 307975 306969 304965 299956 294947 286941 281939 278939
      273943 270947 264953 257960 251967 250972 248980 248987
      249992 251998 255001 270013 277018 284019 289017 293015
      296012 295008 292004 289000 288994 289991 292989 295987
      303982 307975
 0.50 515269 517264 516259 513253 509247 505247 503249 497249
      489246 484248 480251 476257 470261 466263 462268 460270
      460274 464275 468275 472274 476274 480276 487277 494282
      501284 507282 514272 515269
 0.50 420879 417870 413875 411880 406890 402903 396929 391940
      386952 378975 377982 376987 379993 382997 388999 394000
      398999 401993 404982 408968 410954 411938 413924 415910
      418896 420880 420879
 0.50 367737 367731 365726 362723 358722 353723 348725 341731
      336738 333745 333752 335757 337762 341762 350759 355757
      358754 364749 367739 367737
 0.50 363012 365006 364001 360999 356001 351005 345011 332021
      327024 319028 306034 300038 300043 304046 309050 316054
      323054 332053 340050 347047 352042 353031 357023 361016
      363012
 0.50 331789 326778 323771 316769 303769 285771 277773 273776
      261784 252791 247795 243801 240806 238812 237819 236828
      237837 238844 241852 246855 252857 257858 261859 266858
      271853 278846 290837 294833 295827 297824 300821 307820
      313817 318814 323808 326803 330796 331789
 0.50 311075 311071 308069 302064 300062 296062 286060 280058
      272056 263055 256053 247052 244053 242056 245061 251065
      263073 274081 279084 286085 295086 304088 308083 311075
 0.50 297975 295966 292958 290953 288951 279948 275949 273952
      268958 257969 256973 257976 261985 262994 263999 266002
      271007 276013 279015 283014 287012 288008 284003 279995
      278991 280989 286984 292979 297975
 1.00 514266 514261 512258 508254 503258 497255 493252 489252
      485256 482259 480264 486270 492275 498276 502276 505273
      508264 513267 514266
 1.00 403963 403956 400950 397951 395954 392959 389965 387971
      386979 387982 390984 394988 398987 400982 402975 403966
      403963
 1.00 363742 362733 361729 359727 355728 349731 344735 340740
      339744 340751 344754 351755 356752 361747 363742
 1.00 342043 340038 337033 332032 326033 321035 316037 312041
      315045 321048 325048 333047 338045 342043
 1.00 327794 323782 318779 312777 302775 286777 280780 275782
      265789 258796 249804 246809 245814 243821 243827 243835
      244841 248846 253848 259848 264846 272839 277836 282833
      287829 286825 281821 284816 291814 299814 306814 312811
      320803 323797 327794
 1.00 283968 284966 284964 284962 283961 281960 279961 278962
      277962 276964 275964 274966 274967 273968 272970 272972
      274974 275974 277974 279973 280972 281972 282970 283970
      283968
 1.50 502270 502266 500264 498260 496258 495256 492255 490256
      488259 489262 491266 493267 496270 499271 502270
 1.50 398979 399977 399975 399972 399970 399968 399966 398965
      396968 396970 395972 395975 395977 396979 396980 398980
      398979
 1.50 360738 359734 356732 352734 347736 344739 343744 345750
      347752 353751 356749 359745 360740 360738
 1.50 331042 330040 330039 329038 328037 326037 324037 322038
      320039 319041 318041 318042 320042 322043 324044 325044
      326044 327043 329043 331042
 1.50 319791 318786 315783 311780 306780 301780 296781 287785
      269794 256807 251814 250818 249824 248829 249835 251839
      255840 261840 264838 271832 277830 279827 275824 274821
      275818 277815 280812 285810 291809 300809 309805 314797
      319791
 2.00 357743 358741 358739 357736 356736 354737 353737 353738
      351738 349739 347739 346740 345741 345743 346745 347747
      349749 350749 352749 354747 355746 356746 357744 357743
 2.00 309792 308787 306785 302784 298785 292788 286793 279795
      272797 261807 256811 253818 253823 253827 254833 257835
      263832 269827 270824 270821 273814 278809 285805 302805
      306800 309792
 3.00 267814 266811 264810 262811 259813 258815 257818 257822
      257826 260826 262825 263823 265820 266817 267814
$$





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