Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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387
FXUS04 KWBC 291837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...

A HIGH-END, EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD AND VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL QPF`S CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD, WITH THE NAM
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RADAR
TRENDS, THE GFS/ECMWF RUNS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST, AND A CONSENSUS OF
THE HIGH-RES RUNS, PARTICULARLY THE 12Z NSSL WRF, 12Z HIRES ARW,
AND 12Z SPC WRF RUNS CLOSEST TO OBSERVATIONS. THUS, THESE LATTER
HI-RES RUNS CONSTITUTE ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WPC QPF THROUGH THE
END OF DAY 1 (00Z MON) FOR THIS AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE
HI-RES RUNS USED EARLY FOR OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AMOUNTS USED FOR
SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS AND THUS THEIR ACCOMPANYING QPF HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH A SLIGHTLY
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. OTHER THAN THE EASTWARD SHIFT, AMOUNTS ACROSS ARKANSAS/W.
TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD WERE BOOSTED ABOVE THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HIGH-RES RUNS, GEFS REFORECAST DATA,
AND EXTREME 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF 5 TO 7 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS FROM THE GFS. WHILE THE PEAK
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 5 INCHES ACROSS A
BROAD AREA, LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ROCKIES / HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND QUICKER WITH THE
EJECTING LOW, WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENTS
INVOLVING THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM CONUS NEST/12Z GEM
REGIONAL USED TO DERIVE THE AMOUNTS. THE END RESULT IS A SMALL
AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH THE MAJORITY FALLING AS LATE SEASON
HEAVY SNOW. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT, AS WELL AS THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

WPC TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH TOWARD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 533203 535197 533192 532181 526172 523163 522158 522150
      522145 523140 529130 531114 531108 529105 528100 523099
      519098 515100 512100 509104 505106 501111 496118 490123
      485122 480121 478118 476114 479110 481105 482102 479097
      471095 468094 464096 460097 456095 454092 450093 442091
      436093 432092 430088 426086 424088 428096 430102 425103
      423106 424110 441118 444170 444193 443198 445199 449199
      453197 456194 458193 460193 465194 468194 473192 476188
      479183 483182 489187 489193 487197 484200 480202 473205
      466207 460207 457208 449212 441215 435216 427220 426224
      427229 425234 421237 419240 420245 421250 425252 431253
      434253 440254 445256 482268 500272 504270 504265 503263
      504255 506256 509256 512252 512244 511239 510235 509228
      510222 507218 503213 500209 502201 506201 513205 519213
      520215 522214 525214 527213 530213 531209 533203
 0.01 544073 544068 542062 537053 527034 524023 524017 522011
      520005 521997 524984 530962 531954 533948 535943 537936
      540925 539917 538910 534909 531911 528915 526920 518940
      514949 510962 505986 502000 500013 499028 497042 495051
      493057 489068 485075 478081 476081 476086 476089 479091
      484090 493087 496086 500088 504091 507090 510086 512076
      513064 513056 515055 516058 521068 528074 537078 542077
      544073
 0.01 478752 477744 473735 472729 471728 462730 455732 450739
      445745 441752 437761 435766 432765 428758 426753 424749
      420744 412744 406747 404750 401751 399749 399733 398727
      398723 397717 396715 393706 388700 385701 383704 381712
      381735 382757 383769 380777 378785 382791 383793 381796
      377801 375805 371806 366810 364804 361803 359805 349814
      345821 343825 344830 340836 339840 340844 344845 347844
      350841 352837 355830 360826 365822 370817 373812 377812
      379814 382816 386815 389815 389820 388825 388831 386838
      377850 372855 365860 358864 349866 330869 324871 316872
      301877 272888 266891 262897 257904 255907 254912 250921
      251927 253935 252943 266964 273976 278981 280991 284997
      290002 298006 302012 305021 310026 318029 325027 336022
      340022 343025 341031 337036 336047 336053 337056 341063
      344066 350067 352071 348074 340074 336075 334077 332079
      337080 342081 345083 348084 351082 356078 364068 367060
      371064 376071 380072 382069 384066 384061 386057 389054
      392057 391061 395062 398060 402055 395050 392047 391042
      392036 394033 404026 414019 420014 426011 446990 451985
      456978 464962 472946 475936 476927 479910 473895 467892
      465890 463884 462880 461873 464864 467851 468841 467827
      468821 469817 471810 472800 473795 473788 475778 478752
 0.01 430190 431184 430180 428177 429171 431164 429160 427157
      422152 420149 417151 415153 414158 415161 417165 419173
      418182 419188 420192 426194 430190
 0.01 401753 401751 399749 398751 398754 400755 401753
 0.01 400758 400756 398754 397756 397758 399760 400758
 0.01 398763 398761 397759 396761 396763 397765 398763
 0.01 397768 397765 395764 394766 394768 396770 397768
 0.01 395773 396770 394769 393771 393773 395774 395773
 0.01 358985 357983 355979 352979 350981 348983 345984 342986
      341989 341993 344995 346997 349998 351999 353996 354994
      355991 356987 358985
 0.01 332055 330055 328057 330057 332056 332055
 0.01 294079 295070 293062 294050 293046 290045 287047 287049
      285051 285056 283066 273060 272058 268057 265059 264062
      266067 267070 270073 263074 261078 265083 271087 275091
      284092 289089 292083 294079
 0.01 288808 281800 278799 272798 267797 261797 255799 251802
      248805 246811 245815 246823 249822 249815 251811 254807
      259805 265804 270804 274806 279807 285808 288808
 0.25 525195 524184 520175 515168 508161 501155 496146 492139
      490135 486132 478129 475129 471133 470137 471142 468145
      466144 462146 460150 460158 460163 462166 467168 471168
      476168 483171 491177 505189 511194 515197 521198 525195
 0.25 506245 504236 504228 501220 497214 492210 487207 480207
      475209 465214 460215 452216 441219 441222 444225 449230
      447243 459246 472246 479247 483248 485251 488254 492255
      494250 493245 490239 487237 483236 478231 471231 466232
      462231 462228 468226 474223 479223 487225 496236 501242
      503245 506245
 0.25 522968 523965 523962 522960 522959 520959 519960 518961
      518962 517964 517965 516968 515970 515971 515973 515975
      515978 515979 516978 517977 518976 519975 520974 521973
      522970 522968
 0.25 467764 463756 461753 459753 456756 450764 445775 439784
      434783 431781 425777 420776 410781 407784 405790 408796
      409804 410811 409818 405829 402836 398841 392850 385858
      378864 293892 285896 277902 270908 266919 264931 265939
      266944 272947 279947 287952 292952 294953 294956 294965
      291977 292983 293986 295987 303989 306993 311994 315992
      313000 314005 317007 322005 325003 328000 331994 330988
      328985 332980 333978 333974 334971 337969 342966 347963
      353963 359963 361965 364969 367974 366980 365986 360996
      358001 356009 354018 356024 359029 367036 369038 373039
      378035 385029 401020 417009 426002 434993 441985 447977
      452969 457959 460948 462942 463933 462925 460920 453913
      449908 446902 445893 446886 458838 462811 466779 467764
 0.50 517185 516181 515178 513175 510173 509172 506170 503171
      503174 505177 507180 509182 511184 514185 517185
 0.50 501235 500229 498223 494217 489213 485210 481209 478210
      469215 459219 456218 454220 452223 455224 460223 464221
      474219 486219 491222 494229 496234 499236 501235
 0.50 477240 478238 477237 476236 474236 473237 474238 475239
      475240 477240 477240
 0.50 461240 463238 461238 460237 459237 458237 456237 455237
      453237 451237 450236 449236 448238 447238 447241 449241
      451241 452240 453240 454240 456240 458240 459241 461240
      461240
 0.50 472158 470155 469155 467154 465156 465157 466159 467160
      468160 469160 470160 472158 472158
 0.50 461788 460782 459777 455774 451778 447787 443796 438804
      427806 422810 421815 420822 418826 413832 408839 397853
      390861 384866 376871 364875 326883 307888 297893 289898
      283903 280906 278910 270927 269932 270937 274941 279942
      290943 296945 299947 306951 306953 304957 302969 304973
      307975 313977 311981 311984 314984 317981 324975 326971
      330967 344959 351955 355953 361952 366954 370956 375966
      376969 375973 374978 370987 362002 359013 360018 362023
      364027 367031 371032 374031 378029 386024 393020 407011
      421001 429994 436987 441980 447972 451965 455955 456943
      455937 453931 451927 448923 442917 439912 438906 439892
      444873 450852 454840 457827 459815 460803 461788
 0.50 424798 423796 422794 421793 420792 419792 418791 416793
      416795 416797 416800 416802 416804 416807 417809 417811
      419810 421808 421806 422804 422803 423801 423799 424798
 0.50 391929 391927 389927 387926 386924 384926 383927 382928
      381929 380930 379931 379932 377934 379936 380935 382935
      384935 386935 387934 388934 389932 391931 391930 391929
 1.00 454803 453794 452794 450797 444809 437820 431834 423843
      420846 412849 406852 402856 393866 383872 371877 341883
      329886 315889 302895 297897 292901 281923 279929 282933
      296938 301940 307942 314943 318946 314960 314964 316966
      323963 334958 344953 356946 365938 373929 381920 385915
      392912 396910 401913 406917 409918 412917 414915 418915
      420914 421910 423901 427895 434883 444859 448845 451837
      452828 453815 454803
 1.00 444959 445955 444950 442943 438939 437935 435932 431928
      428921 424916 421917 420919 422926 424933 421941 417945
      414951 409954 396954 393956 389963 387970 387979 384985
      380990 373999 369005 367012 370019 373021 377021 399009
      418996 426989 430984 433978 439968 444959
 1.50 448833 449826 447819 445818 443820 440824 435834 428844
      422852 415858 403863 395869 387874 378878 365881 352883
      331887 320890 309894 304896 300899 294907 290916 287923
      286927 290931 294933 302938 310939 316938 322938 325943
      324948 325954 330955 335954 345949 354943 361936 368929
      376920 383913 390907 394904 399902 407896 418891 422889
      425885 431876 436867 442856 446845 448833
 1.50 416982 414980 410984 406986 400985 394986 391989 383997
      378003 375009 376012 378013 386008 396005 403000 410991
      415983 416982
 2.00 441849 441842 439840 437840 430847 424855 419864 414872
      411874 407871 403868 400869 391874 383879 373882 351886
      342887 332889 321892 311896 303899 298906 293916 292920
      292924 297931 301935 305936 314937 326935 333951 338950
      342948 350943 357937 363931 377917 402889 408885 411882
      416882 423879 428876 431871 441849
 3.00 395888 396884 395881 389881 377886 373887 366888 358888
      351889 338891 324894 314898 310901 307903 308905 306911
      304915 304918 307920 303924 303929 308932 316931 321929
      331924 334924 336927 335934 333940 338943 345941 350938
      358931 366922 374914 382904 388896 392892 395888
 4.00 376895 376893 373893 367894 356899 346904 340906 337908
      337910 340910 340914 345917 345921 342925 341933 340936
      341939 350934 355930 359925 362921 364914 370905 376895
 4.00 337910 335910 333910 333911 335911 337910
 4.00 320922 319921 317921 316922 317922 319922 320922
 4.00 316924 315922 314923 313924 314924 315924 316924
 5.00 357921 357919 355920 353920 353921 352922 350923 352925
      353924 355923 355922 357921 357921

$$





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