Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 24/1200 UTC THRU APR 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY
MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. LATEST SATELLITE WV
LOOPS QUITE CLEARLY SHOW A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM SOUTH OF BAJA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. PW VALUES IN THIS INFLOW AXIS WILL BE RISING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
AROUND 2.00+ INCHES TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER MS VLY TONIGHT. PW ANOMALIES FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG
THE AXIS OF MOST ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AS 850 MB
SOUTHERLY INFLOW (~40 KTS) LEADS TO MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
BETWEEN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL
SHORTER TIME FRAME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODEL
SUITE...THERE REMAINS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...AS THE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE IS
ENHANCED BY THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000+ J/KG.
MEANWHILE...FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD ACROSS THESE AREAS.
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL BOOST TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS)
WEAKENING DOWNWIND (INCREASED UPWIND) PROPAGATION. IN AREAS OF
TRAINING...ISOLATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ INCHES WITH STORM
TOTALS OF 3-6"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER
MS VALLEY

TO THE NORTH OF THE POTENTIAL QPF MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...UVVS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AHEAD
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AHEAD OF A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. MODEL SPREAD WITH QPF DETAILS OVER THIS REGION HAS
REDUCED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 12Z CYCLE...AND AS SUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS HIGHER. WPC LEANED TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE DAY 1 QPF...WITH HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
AMOUNTS (0.50 TO 1.00+ INCH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY TO INCLUDE NORTHEAST KS... SOUTHEAST
NE...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WESTERN IL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA---INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  OVERALL--THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE--WITH THE NAM USED PRIMARILY FOR
DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 520266 521260 520254 518244 515234 514226 514220 515206
      516209 518210 522208 528203 530199 530190 529179 528172
      527168 526163 523160 520157 521152 523132 522125 520119
      517116 512117 507125 504137 502141 500139 486125 483122
      480121 480117 482112 485110 490103 494092 500087 505078
      509063 510054 510045 505038 500033 497034 493036 486042
      476055 468059 463059 459060 454062 452058 451046 450019
      456011 458010 457003 451983 443983 444980 447979 452979
      467969 473964 476960 479959 490944 490941 487934 484926
      472913 467903 462896 456888 452886 445887 442885 437885
      430885 427887 425887 424884 419873 416863 412855 411851
      408847 402839 392826 383823 380821 379818 377814 375810
      371805 360807 352812 345806 340797 336797 333800 327805
      324814 321834 314841 309848 307850 307856 307863 306869
      307895 307899 305900 301903 299911 298926 293935 286953
      283962 280965 275967 272969 266970 263976 260979 260985
      263995 264001 267005 270008 274010 280011 282013 284016
      287019 294025 298028 304029 310028 314026 321021 327014
      332006 337999 341991 350976 356969 359966 363964 367965
      370970 367979 367991 367998 368004 372016 374026 375031
      376035 376038 376047 374050 371050 366049 365046 367041
      368034 358045 354048 351048 351044 348044 341052 337059
      335064 335069 336073 335076 332079 332084 333088 336098
      335102 334105 332107 329112 328120 331123 334125 344125
      348125 353124 357122 361125 368131 371135 370142 369147
      369152 370161 370167 372170 378174 380176 387183 390192
      384191 381189 373183 367180 357182 353182 356186 360190
      363192 370198 374202 376207 375209 372210 368212 365214
      364219 366223 369227 375233
 0.01 375233 388242 394246 403248 410248 419250 433249 440250
      449252 463252 471254 475256 477258 489269 495275 497276
      500275 502277 505276 511273 516272 520266
 0.01 508211 508205 506199 494195 491192 486190 485183 486174
      487169 486167 483166 477165 471165 467165 462166 458168
      454171 451176 447175 443171 441169 438170 432178 429183
      428192 429199 431204 438211 441212 446211 456209 465208
      475206 479204 482200 486197 491198 499203 506211 508211
 0.01 485692 485686 483682 479678 477678 473669 472664 468662
      467662 464664 461667 458665 453663 445667 442669 440672
      439677 440680 444687 450694 448703 443709 440708 438711
      438717 439720 441719 444725 437728 433727 429728 428731
      432731 434730 438731 445732 447735 444737 437740 434739
      430740 423744 420747 421752 425758 432759 437760 441758
      442754 444750 446747 451741 459726 473723 480720 484712
      485692
 0.01 439124 439122 436121 433121 431123 429125 428127 426130
      424133 423136 423140 425139 429139 432138 434135 435133
      436129 438127 439124
 0.01 442084 442079 441074 440070 438069 435062 431056 427051
      424044 419030 417023 416021 413018 407021 406025 405030
      406036 408042 411050 414057 416063 418071 421077 425083
      431085 438088 442084
 0.01 392100 393096 390093 385093 383097 381097 378096 376094
      376089 375086 374081 372077 363078 359077 356077 352082
      347086 345089 344094 343099 343104 344107 346111 348114
      352119 358121 359117 362114 374111 380110 383109 386107
      392100
 0.01 344186 343182 342177 342171 339169 336167 330165 325165
      324169 326172 331175 334177 337181 338185 340188 344187
      344186
 0.01 287818 286812 283806 279802 274799 262796 258795 256787
      253784 248782 245786 247790 248800 250807 255811 261820
      265823 270826 282828 285823 287818
 0.25 503241 503233 502227 497216 493211 489208 484207 479208
      474210 470212 460215 455216 451218 448222 450227 454231
      451233 446236 447241 456241 460240 463239 466241 476246
      481245 482242 481239 479233 477231 474231 471233 467234
      465231 463228 467225 471223 476222 482223 488225 492230
      494236 499242 501243 503241
 0.25 498260 496257 497254 496251 494248 493245 492243 489239
      486241 486244 488247 489249 491253 493256 495258 496260
      498260
 0.25 499069 499056 499052 497050 493052 491063 486067 482069
      475073 471075 466074 462076 461082 457093 450100 445101
      441101 433097 431098 430101 425102 421104 418108 414109
      412106 412099 409095 406098 404103 401108 394112 386117
      380124 381128 382134 383140 385144 390144 391141 391137
      392134 396131 402126 410123 415126 419125 427121 429116
      432113 436110 441112 444121 446128 450131 453134 457131
      461127 464125 464121 462121 458121 459116 464114 467114
      471111 474106 475102 480092 483087 486084 494077 497074
      499069
 0.25 456712 457709 456709 454710 453712 453713 453715 453716
      455715 456712 456712
 0.25 428165 428162 425160 422162 420161 418161 419164 418167
      417170 418175 420173 421169 424167 426167 428165
 0.25 431935 431927 428917 422903 414890 410883 405877 401872
      395868 392866 387867 385874 384877 381877 372875 365874
      359875 357869 358860 356850 353842 345831 340825 337822
      334824 333832 331841 326856 321869 317888 316895 314904
      311911 309919 308929 307937 301941 297947 290961 286967
      284973 281979 279982 278988 283994 284997 285001 289006
      295010 299011 303011 308008 319997 327986 335975 344964
      353952 358948 361946 366947 371949 377954 382970 382977
      378987 380990 382989 385988 389993 395991 401992 405991
      408989 412985 417979 422972 425966 428959 430954 431946
      431935
 0.25 402235 400234 399232 397230 395230 394229 392229 390229
      389229 388229 386231 387233 388234 389235 391236 391237
      392237 394238 396238 398238 399238 401237 402236 402235
 0.25 404214 402210 399207 396204 393201 387199 384197 381197
      379200 380202 383206 386209 389211 394214 397217 402216
      404214
 0.25 406170 407168 408166 408164 407161 406161 405158 407156
      406154 404155 403156 404158 404160 403160 402162 401164
      401167 402169 402170 404172 406171 406170
 0.25 405077 406073 405070 401068 397069 394071 390073 385074
      384079 386083 391084 396083 399081 402078 405077
 0.25 274816 272812 271808 267804 263803 259801 256804 256808
      260811 264813 266814 270817 273818 274816
 0.50 492222 492217 491214 489213 486212 482211 481211 477212
      475212 473214 471216 473217 475219 478220 480221 483221
      486222 489223 492222
 0.50 463221 462219 461219 459219 457219 456218 455218 454221
      455222 457222 459222 460222 462222 463221
 0.50 470105 471096 469090 466089 464092 463099 461102 459104
      454106 450109 448111 450114 452116 455115 457109 461106
      468106 470105
 0.50 429108 429106 428106 427105 426105 425106 423107 423108
      422110 423111 424111 426110 428110 429108
 0.50 423114 422114 421114 420114 420116 420117 421116 422115
      423114
 0.50 423938 421928 418919 415910 411903 406898 403896 400895
      397896 393902 392913 392925 391936 387945 384954 385960
      386964 386970 386976 388982 391985 395984 400978 407974
      416961 420953 422942 423938
 0.50 409117 408114 408110 408105 407105 405109 403111 401112
      399113 397115 396117 397119 401118 403118 406117 409117
 0.50 392209 393207 392206 391204 390204 389202 387203 387205
      388207 390208 391209 392209
 0.50 361934 359932 356933 353924 348924 346921 345908 347898
      348888 349877 348864 345856 343852 339849 335852 333856
      330864 323879 321889 319900 316908 314918 313929 312939
      310944 307947 304944 301947 295964 292974 289981 287986
      288991 289994 293996 295994 296988 297982 297977 301976
      303979 304990 306994 311995 316990 326975 335962 345949
      348943 352939 361934
 1.00 409938 410929 408922 407918 405920 403926 400933 398938
      395945 394952 396954 398952 402947 406942 409938
 1.00 342884 342877 342870 341863 338863 336867 335872 333877
      331883 327884 325888 323900 321912 319924 319936 317947
      316959 312969 312973 316976 323970 325959 330950 334941
      335928 336916 338904 340894 342884
 1.50 338889 338882 337878 334886 333889 329887 326891 326896
      325909 324919 323926 324932 326936 329932 331921 333911
      335902 338891 338889
 2.00 334900 334898 333895 331895 329897 329898 329900 328902
      328904 329906 330908 330906 331905 332904 332902 333901
      334900

$$





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