Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MB AND WESTERN ONTARIO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
MB---WITH AREAS OF NORTHEAST MT AND FAR NW ND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AREA.  FARTHER EASTWARD---THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES
REGION.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN AFTER 1200 UTC.  HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL
CONSENSUS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED HI RES AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS---WAS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MN/WI/IL/IA BORDER AREA---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA
AND NW MO.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO---RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.  LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MAX
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL BE SLOWER MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY.  PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT.    CONVECTION LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED HIGH AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST NM---THE TX/OK PANHANDLE---EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THIS AXIS---WITH THE USUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.

MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/UPPER TN
VALLEY

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  THERE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS AREAS OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS--LEADING TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.  LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD---WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS DEPICTED--WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE UPPER TN
VALLEY---THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC.

FLORIDA

THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER OFF THE NW FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DAY 1.  PW VALUES---HOWEVER---REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THIS CENTER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AGAIN LIKELY IN THIS HI PW AXIS---WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS---LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SW TO WEST CENTRAL FL.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED
AREAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN QB INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MAINE DAY 1.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT---AFFECTING AREAS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 567952 564897 562883 561877 558872 555865 552860 550855
      548851 544849 540850 535848 523849 510850 505851 499849
      492845 485841 481839 476839 472838 469840 461842 454845
      448849 432857 428859 423859 412860 408859 403859 398861
      396859 396855 398830 397814 402801 403799 403795 403786
      403781 402776 400769 399762 398756 396754 394752 390752
      380754 368763 361771 357779 352788 344794 337797 331805
      324812 317817 314819 310819 309813 308809 305807 301804
      285800 270797 266798 261800 259803 258808 256818 256826
      252834 251839 252846 254851 256854 260856 263854 272850
      284851 288851 294849 298851 300855 306861 313864 320868
      323869 326872 325875 324881 320888 317898 322904 325908
      329909 341908 359903 366912 373916 380916 385914 392913
      394917 392920 386939 379953 370971 362985 341022 337030
      334035 330037 319037 313038 306038 298040 290043 275046
      266043 258039 251035 244030 240030 238034 233042 230047
      229051 231053 237061 242069 244072 248074 264085 279094
      283099 286106 291113 293115 297118 306121 311123 313126
      320132 325135 331136 334136 338135 341129 342123 344117
      346112 347105 346099 343087 341082 342076 343070 348068
      351067 356067 363066 372067 380063 382058 383055 381036
      382020 384008 387998 393991 410982 421978 426976 433976
      436974 442973 448969 454966 460962 463960 466962 474965
      482971 489976 496982 495987 495996 493002 490006 485014
      483019 480023 474023 471026 467028 464035 463043 463050
      461077
 0.01 461077 462104 463109 467112 470116 475118 482113 486110
      490109 507102 513099 518097 521094 526087 532077 543061
      553045 558037 561035 561033 562024 563988 566958 567952
 0.01 481675 476667 472664 467664 460663 455661 452657 449657
      446660 444666 442672 439680 437686 435691 428696 422698
      418701 415704 413708 414716 415724 418727 423726 429724
      432724 433726 437727 440725 444722 449719 451714 452709
      454705 459705 465699 470696 473693 481675
 0.25 561991 561974 559960 555945 552931 550924 547919 537910
      534907 529903 524901 521901 519902 514904 510907 503913
      499914 497917 499922 494920 490917 486913 483912 486910
      488909 489904 487902 484901 478900 482898 482894 484892
      484887 482885 478882 471879 467877 461878 454878 451878
      450875 449870 448869 442871 436872 429872 421872 416875
      408887 405891 403896 403907 403914 402920 399933 395945
      390957 384968 380974 377981 372990 367997 356016 352022
      350026 347032 346037 348041 353044 357044 363043 366041
      366036 371039 373033 375023 376020 375017 373012 374003
      376999 380995 383988 391979 405961 409956 411954 414955
      420956 425955 429954 433950 440942 445938 450935 456933
      462932 489935 497941 498947 498955 504965 509975 510983
      507991 503003 500011 498020 495026 491030 475041 473046
      471053 469065 470074 471082 473090 474093 477095 484096
      488095 499091 515083 523076 529069 543049 554023 559008
      561991
 0.25 504926 503924 502923 501924 502925 504926 504926
 0.25 498960 497959 496958 494957 494958 494960 496961 497961
      498960
 0.25 490952 489949 487947 486945 485944 484942 483939 482939
      481938 479939 479940 481941 481942 482943 484944 484945
      485947 486949 487951 489952 490952
 0.25 482909 480908 479907 478907 479907 480909 480910 482909
 0.25 455685 454683 453681 452680 450681 450682 449683 447684
      447685 447687 448690 450692 452691 453691 453690 454688
      455687 455685
 0.25 391794 392789 390786 383782 378778 375776 372776 367781
      365789 363796 359803 356809 352816 348822 346831 346838
      348842 352842 356837 360830 363824 368818 372813 375810
      378809 382808 385806 389799 391794
 0.25 315112 316105 313102 311097 310090 310085 308080 299074
      297070 292067 280064 272060 263055 243046 238047 236052
      239057 242061 248067 257073 273084 282088 293094 298100
      305108 309113 312115 314114 315112
 0.25 296817 296812 293808 290806 286806 284807 282811 279814
      276816 270817 265818 263821 261825 262829 264833 268837
      275840 281842 288837 293830 294824 295820 296817
 0.50 558996 558983 556970 554959 550948 547939 543932 527926
      521926 520929 521933 522937 521943 518947 516951 514957
      519977 518986 517991 512999 506015 503029 498036 486044
      482047 479050 475059 475066 477076 483083 486087 489089
      496088 503085 510081 517077 522072 526065 537049 545035
      550025 554015 556007 558996
 0.50 450923 445901 432888 430885 427881 422879 420879 413885
      406894 408915 404924 401936 398946 396952 396959 400960
      403957 410949 417945 421945 424947 428947 431945 439937
      450923
 0.50 384793 383788 380786 376784 372785 371790 370795 368800
      369804 372804 378801 381800 384795 384793
 0.50 363816 362814 359816 356820 353824 351827 349832 350837
      354835 356830 357826 359821 361818 363816
 0.50 292085 293081 292077 285073 279069 273066 266062 259061
      256062 257065 262070 269075 274078 281081 288085 292085
 0.50 291828 290822 286818 281819 276819 268820 265824 265830
      269834 274836 280838 285837 289833 291828
 0.50 252059 252058 250056 248055 246055 244055 244056 244058
      246058 248059 250059 252059 252059
 1.00 551998 552988 552978 549968 546960 543956 537953 534954
      533957 534968 533978 531985 528994 524999 521004 518011
      514027 508039 498048 495051 491057 486060 484064 483070
      488081 496081 502078 510072 515066 519061 522056 526049
      532034 540027 545020 548014 551998
 1.00 435923 435917 433914 430909 427907 420902 418901 416902
      418907 417912 414917 409924 407936 406940 407943 409944
      414937 420931 424929 430929 435923
 1.00 288831 288827 287824 283823 281823 278822 274822 271824
      270826 270830 272832 275833 277834 280835 284834 286833
      288831
 1.50 547995 548987 547982 544979 541981 539985 537989 535995
      534000 532008 534010 537009 540008 543005 545001 547995
 1.50 508066 508058 506054 502054 498057 495059 493061 489064
      488066 488071 490074 495075 499073 502072 505070 508066
 1.50 286831 286829 285828 285827 283826 281825 280825 278825
      276825 274826 274828 274829 275830 276831 277832 278832
      280833 282832 284832 286831 286831

$$




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