Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS04 KWBC 240705
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 24/1200 UTC THRU MAR 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL US

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY DAY1. A WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL LIFT FROM ERN COLORADO
NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
SOME MODERATELY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
BAND STRETCHING FROM SNOWY ERN CO TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODEL QPFS REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL WITH THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS. DAY 1 QPF LEANED HEAVILY ON WPC
CONTINUITY BLENDED WITH A LATEST GLOBAL MODEL AND HI RES GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE FOR UPDATED DETAILS.

FARTHER SOUTH...A FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE SHOWS A SWATH OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ADVECTION AS PER
AN ENHANCED LLJ THAT WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AS PER SPC AHEAD OF A TRAILING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS
VALLEY. SUSPECT THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH SOME TRAINING/RUNOFF
POTENTIAL WILL FLOURISH ERN OK/TX AND THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
FRI/FRI NIGHT WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY 2-4" AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LOCAL TERRAIN LIFT.


GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NY/NEW ENGLAND

WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LOW...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE RETREATING EASTERN
ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
IN THE .50"+ RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH
THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD MAINLY OVER SRN CANADA BUT LINGERING DOWN ACROSS FAR NRN
NY/NEW ENGLAND.


PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO N-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A LONG FETCH DEEPENED MOISTURE PLUME
FROM NORTH OF HAWAII TO THE WEST COAST WITH EMBEDDED DERIVED
RAINFALL RATES RANGING UPWARDS OF .25" PER HOUR AND HIGHER WITH
WAVE POOLING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING PW VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWARD
INTO NRN AND CENTRAL CA ASSOCIATED AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN
AN AMPLIFIED AND STEADILY PROGRESSIVE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACH
AND MOVE INLAND. THE GREATEST PW ANOMALIES AND STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THIS UPCOMING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ARE SLATED FOR THE
N-CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES THAT MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES AND
INLAND TO THE SNOWY SIERRA WHERE PW ANOMALIES WILL ALSO REACH
UPWARDS OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. HERE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY LIQUID TOTALS OF 1-2"+ ARE LIKELY...WITH MAX TOTALS OF 5"+
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. NORTH OF THIS THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL NOT HAVE AS GREAT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MOISTURE FLUX
VALUES WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT MORE MODEST PCPN VALUES...WITH .50-1"+ AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS AND .5"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS INTO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS OF NE OREGON/SE WASHINGTON AND THE SEVEN
DEVILS...BITTERROOT...SALMON RIVER AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 537215 538207 537202 534193 527173 522166 516159 505147
      491136 484130 477126 472123 471118 471111 471106 469102
      466103 463104 461102 460104 462106 462109 457109 455109
      455106 456103 455097 451094 446094 444094 442091 435092
      430092 428095 427099 428104 425107 423111 414111 408114
      413116 415117 415119 410126 404132 400137 385147 379153
      376161 374166 372172 370176 367178 351180 339170 341178
      341183 339186 335196 337205 341211 342214 341216 340221
      342224 345227 348230 350229 358230 363236 372241 378248
      385252 390254 394254 404255 411254 420254 429253 438253
      446254 454254 464257 472259 476260 480264 492276 500283
      504286 508285 513281 516277 518273 520266 520263 521258
      521253 519241 517231 516226 513222 507215 505211 504206
      507202 512202 518209 524214 527218 532220 537215
 0.01 531050 532041 530034 527030 522029 516029 512031 508033
      504036 498044 494056 495063 497067 501070 504068 508064
      512062 521059 525057 529054 531050
 0.01 505777 504766 502757 497739 493733 488728 480724 475687
      462669 444669 429680 417694 414701 418705 421709 421713
      422722 421730 420735 418737 410739 403743 398755 395763
      394768 394773 397779 401785 410791 413791 416794 417804
      418816 419824 417840 417846 416850 415855 414859 404867
      397870 390871 375874 359876 345879 319888 305895 300898
      296903 289912 285917 282924 280932 277937 277946 279954
      282955 281959 279965 277972 277979 278984 280985 284991
      288997 292998 296998 302996 308993 318986 328980 334977
      341974 353968 357969 357974 357978 359981 361986 364988
      369988 373988 376987 379984 383984 388985 390988 390993
      393995 392003 387008 382012 377015 372017 366021 362025
      359031 360038 360044 356051 356056 358058 363057 370056
      374056 377055 386055 391059 396058 405051 413040 421029
      426015 433000 438985 447956 456923 464890 471854 473846
      475837 477830 479825 481823 489813 493807 497802 501788
      504782 505777
 0.01 409202 407199 404194 403190 398188 393186 390184 385184
      385189 389192 393195 397197 400200 405202 409202
 0.01 289806 285800 279796 266794 261793 258791 256789 254790
      244799 239804 235810 232816 234826 238830 244827 247821
      251816 256811 259808 263807 271808 278810 286811 289806
 0.25 516270 518264 518260 517253 513239 503215 497204 491200
      485199 481201 479203 480206 477204 473206 451212 440213
      433211 429208 425206 423208 425213 425218 423222 419225
      418222 418218 415213 404206 395200 384192 374185 368184
      362185 359186 360190 363194 365201 364205 361205 356205
      352202 349203 348205 351212 384244 391247 397249 410250
      422250 432248 454244 459242 465243 473250 482258 490268
      499278 503281 508282 513276 516270
 0.25 514187 516182 515177 512171 505162 501163 495159 490156
      487155 484156 480155 474151 465144 460143 456145 450147
      446144 441140 439137 436138 431149 432156 435162 435170
      436172 436177 435186 437192 444203 449206 452206 454203
      453198 455196 457192 467187 477186 488191 499189 508190
      512189 514187
 0.25 500251 498245 495238 491233 487229 482225 478223 474226
      473228 477229 481233 484238 489237 493243 496248 497250
      500251
 0.25 492147 491147 490146 488145 488147 490148 491148 492147
 0.25 454740 454730 453721 451715 448710 444708 439708 435714
      435721 429731 433737 433741 432748 428751 423751 419753
      416755 415758 419761 424762 427766 429771 431778 432788
      433797 433816 433831 433837 432843 427855 423865 417874
      408881 403883 397883 393882 386882 373884 351889 339892
      328895 323897 318900 310905 302913 295921 290931 289936
      290943 294946 296948 299948 303947 304948 294954 290958
      290964 292969 296971 301981 306981 311979 319975 329969
      337965 347960 357956 367952 379950 389953 398960 402961
      408961 410965 410970 408984 403997 397006 392013 378031
      378035 379038 383041 391046 396045 400042 408033 414022
      419013 428992 433981 436967 438953 440945 442940 447928
      451916 454903 456891 458875 459860 460843 460825 459811
      458792 456779 456762 455748 454740
 0.25 397157 397156 395154 393154 392154 390155 388157 386159
      386161 386164 387165 388164 389164 390163 392162 394161
      394160 396159 396158 397157
 0.25 258801 257799 253798 250799 248801 246803 244805 243807
      242810 242813 244814 246813 248810 250808 252806 254805
      256803 258801
 0.50 515269 515262 514255 510242 505231 502219 498213 494211
      487209 482209 477209 472211 463214 442217 437218 433217
      430220 427225 423229 419230 416230 415228 416219 414214
      407211 399205 381191 376188 369186 367187 366190 366194
      368195 375203 382212 383217 379220 373219 370219 369221
      382239 388243 393245 403247 415248 426247 431246 436243
      439240 442235 446231 450229 455228 461228 469224 474221
      478220 484221 488224 492229 495234 501243 506255 509266
      513270 515269
 0.50 507279 507273 505267 503261 500257 494248 491243 487239
      483240 481236 477231 473233 471235 471240 473244 480252
      487260 494269 502277 507279
 0.50 502176 503172 501170 496168 490166 486163 483161 478161
      474157 471153 466151 463151 462153 459152 457153 458156
      460154 462155 465159 470162 474165 477170 481170 486171
      490174 494177 499177 502176
 0.50 464179 462174 457172 456159 448152 440144 437144 436146
      435150 438161 441166 445169 447176 446179 442182 442186
      444188 448191 453191 460184 464181 464179
 0.50 448726 448724 447722 447721 445720 444722 443723 442724
      441726 440728 441729 442730 443731 445731 446732 447732
      447729 448728 448726
 0.50 456840 455823 454808 453801 451794 448790 446784 442771
      440768 438772 437779 437787 438803 439820 439833 439842
      438848 435860 433865 433871 434873 434878 433883 432889
      429894 426895 424893 421891 418885 413886 405891 401892
      397889 393887 387887 345895 339896 335898 325902 316907
      309912 302918 298922 297927 294931 293936 297939 303937
      307935 312933 315937 320938 323939 319942 311948 303954
      300957 298962 314968 321967 325965 333962 343957 351952
      359949 366947 370945 378943 384941 388943 396949 400950
      404948 407948 408945 407938 407935 409934 414933 418930
      424930 426932 425936 423941 418949 418963 417978 413987
      408997 402006 391022 389027 387031 389036 392040 397038
      401035 407028 413019 418009 422999 425987 428975 430964
      431957 433951 437941 442930 446920 449908 452896 454882
      455869 456853 456840
 0.50 445744 444743 443744 442745 441747 443749 444747 445746
      445744
 1.00 501270 500265 497261 496257 494252 492248 490244 488243
      486246 488252 490255 492260 495265 498268 501270 501270
 1.00 472217 482216 475214 472215 470215 472217
 1.00 452869 452862 451857 449867 449872 447877 444889 441899
      438909 439916 440917 441913 445906 448894 450884 452872
      452869
 1.00 425242 423237 419234 415234 412231 414220 412216 408216
      394203 386198 378192 374190 372190 372193 374197 377201
      384208 392213 400220 403223 402226 400226 389226 385226
      381228 381232 384237 393242 405244 415244 421244 425242
 1.00 421905 419901 416899 414898 410901 401913 394917 390918
      387917 380913 373909 373902 370899 366898 359901 351901
      343904 336905 331906 333907 342907 347908 347913 345917
      342919 334923 331925 330927 335933 338936 335938 323945
      315949 310954 309956 313956 321954 336949 344947 354946
      368940 375938 382937 408920 413919 417914 421905
 1.00 415005 416001 415998 411001 408006 404012 400016 397021
      395027 398028 402025 406021 410017 413012 415005
 1.00 321913 321911 319912 313915 314916 319914 321913 321913
 1.50 421240 418236 412236 406234 401230 396228 392230 388229
      385230 384232 386235 390238 397240 404241 411242 417242
      421240
 1.50 402216 402212 400210 396206 391203 385200 381197 376193
      375196 377198 381202 385206 389210 394214 399216 402216
 1.50 395924 393923 389924 387925 384926 382927 380929 378931
      377934 379935 382934 384933 387931 389930 391928 393927
      395924
 1.50 371934 368929 366925 364918 361919 360925 358930 353929
      351929 350932 346936 343939 337940 333942 329945 333947
      337947 346943 356943 365938 371934
 2.00 400213 400212 399211 398210 397208 396208 395207 394206
      392206 390204 388205 388206 390208 391209 393211 394212
      395212 396213 398214 400214 400213
 2.00 364936 364934 362933 361933 359932 357932 355932 354932
      352934 350936 348937 347939 348940 350941 351941 352941
      354941 355941 357941 358941 359940 361939 361938 363937
      364936
 2.00 340943 339941 337941 336942 334942 333943 332945 334945
      336945 337945 339944 340943
 3.00 359936 357935 355936 355938 357938 359937 359936

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.