Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/0000 UTC THRU AUG 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DAY 1
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND WELL DEFINED VORTS MOVING
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGH PW AXIS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS---ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.  THE HI RES ARW AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN USED FOR QPF DETAILS DAY 1.

NORTH CENTRAL TX

AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DAY 1 OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX---TRAPPED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
VORT---WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.  CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW WITH QPF DETAILS---BUT
WITH THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT--CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT THERE MAY
BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.


MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN LAKES


MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER LAKES REGION DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---1 TO 1.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY---INTO THE UPPER
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT WITH DETAILS---BUT
CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GIVEN THE ABOVE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE.  THE HI
RES ARW AND NSSL WRF WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR QPF DETAILS.

SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION

TWO WELL DEFINED VORTS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION DAY 1.
THE NORTHERN MOST VORT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
AFFECTING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.  HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NC AFTER 0000 UTC--WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FALLING PRIMARILY PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST---A MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
FORM THE UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE AHEAD OF IT.  HOWEVER---LATEST
MODELS ARE NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD 0000 UTC TUE.
SUBSEQUENTLY---CONFIDENCE LOW WITH QPF DETAILS--WITH MODERATE
AMOUNTS DEPICTED AFTER 0000 UTC.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 528172 528166 527162 524152 521146 519142 519135 520130
      518125 516124 513125 508129 501131 499132 495131 490130
      486130 484133 483137 483144 484148 485156 490163 494169
      500174 505179 509186 512187 515185 520180 528172
 0.01 509952 509942 507938 507934 505929 502926 499926 497924
      493922 489920 490914 492907 495898 498876 501865 502860
      502853 501849 498845 494840 490834 487826 487821 485818
      482813 472807 465806 459805 450806 443809 440811 435812
      427814 418815 411810 408803 407798 409796 412791 408791
      405790 402787 403784 404777 405770 404762 402759 403757
      407754 410749 411742 406733 398721 393715 386709 380706
      375703 366705 363704 359705 357707 354708 352710 348710
      342710 338711 337713 314732 294754 291761 287768 284775
      282781 283786 284788 290789 295787 301783 306778 310773
      315768 318767 322768 320774 318780 310792 303797 296800
      285801 279801 276800 262799 258799 257795 251794 247796
      246799 243806 241813 240822 242824 246825 254827 258826
      257820 255817 255813 261816 268818 272820 277820 279822
      287823 291824 295825 296828 296834 289866 288869 288875
      290879 294879 296881 297886 298891 300893 303886 304882
      307882 309884 310889 309899 311906 311909 314910 319911
      326909 331905 333902 336902 338902 339898 343890 347882
      349876 357870 363876 365880 364886 363894 361897 359896
      356896 354901 355910 357915 360921 364927 371940 374947
      375957 377967 377975 380983 382986 386988 387986 388980
      388972 389969 391968 396974 398975 402973 400967 400958
      402950 407947 410944 412943 413945 416952 421957 425957
      428955 440948 444946 449946 458948 471952 479953 483953
      486954 499955 506955 509952
 0.01 458118 459109 458104 457097 457096 453095 446093 443089
      436087 430084 427084 426087 427096 426101 423103 416105
      413100 413092 413083 414078 415076 421067 428059 432054
      430051 427044 422041 419040 419036 420027 420020 418010
      417006 415005 410009 408011 404011 397011 391011 386013
      383015 380020 379022 379025 382031 385036 390041 394040
      399040 401042 400044 394049 386049 373048 365047 363049
      360049 357053 357058 362061 366064 367069 366074 365076
      362077 350080 320073 316070 313066 314058 313052 313037
      314033 316030 319027 324024 328020 331015 334013 338013
      341013 344011 345006 342999 342995 344991 349981 350976
      343973 339973 335975 331978 328979 326977 325968 323962
      319958 314956 308958 304962 300968 299971 295975 281991
      277999 276007 272009 263015 259019 257022 257027 256042
      247052 243057 240065 243076 245080 250083 251087 254091
      257097 260100 271107 281112 287115 292119 296122 302125
      312128 318131 324139 327143 331147 336148 342147 349150
      354154 363160 369163 376162 380160 384154 384148 386145
      394145 403148 411141 420135 424132 428125 432119 435121
      435126 437146 440149 442149 444145 450134 454125 458118
 0.01 386203 383195 381193 381188 383185 382181 381177 378175
      373179 366181 360183 360188 364189 370192 375199 377202
      381203 386203
 0.25 480849 478843 476839 472835 466831 463826 458822 452820
      446818 440818 433820 423827 419831 414836 406848 401856
      397862 394868 379890 373898 372907 371911 373916 386940
      389943 392940 395924 395915 394907 394902 395898 398892
      403882 407877 411873 415870 416879 417899 418904 423902
      428903 430905 431909 433917 428923 423933 420939 419945
      423949 428948 450935 455933 459932 466932 470932 474930
      476927 475925 470920 466915 463910 458898 457894 459892
      463888 467883 471877 477863 479856 480849
 0.25 411117 412112 411107 410102 408097 405099 402104 399106
      394108 378113 372113 366113 362110 357106 350099 344091
      341089 335087 326087 314085 296077 286075 275074 263072
      255068 258072 259078 262082 267089 274095 286106 293111
      303116 311119 319123 327129 334136 349144 357149 363151
      368152 371150 374147 379140 394128 411117
 0.25 381761 381750 380743 378739 374731 371729 368727 359727
      355726 349727 334735 329741 328745 329750 335753 342755
      345757 345763 343772 342775 342782 345785 349786 356781
      362776 367770 371769 375770 378770 380767 381761
 0.25 357832 354828 349829 343831 337833 332836 328841 325844
      322850 321857 323864 326878 329883 333888 335887 336883
      338877 346870 350857 352852 354845 357832
 0.25 337826 336819 334815 330813 326813 322814 318817 317821
      319822 321821 325823 329825 333828 336828 337826
 0.25 330006 330002 329999 324995 319992 313991 307990 304989
      303992 300996 300004 302009 305010 309009 315008 322008
      327008 330006
 0.50 471855 470847 466842 461837 454835 448838 443842 441846
      438847 432850 424860 421868 420877 420886 420893 423895
      426896 431900 433906 434917 433923 431926 427931 425937
      427941 429942 431942 435940 440935 449929 456926 462924
      463920 462917 458911 450901 441892 439887 439882 442873
      445870 451870 458871 464868 468863 471855
 0.50 420848 418848 417849 416849 415851 414851 413853 413854
      412856 411859 411861 411863 412864 412863 412861 413860
      414858 415858 417856 418853 420851 420849 420848
 0.50 404111 399111 392112 383114 378117 372120 366122 363121
      359118 353113 345103 340097 333095 316091 311091 307089
      300086 293084 284083 275081 274084 275088 279092 285097
      290103 295107 301111 308114 316117 321121 332126 337132
      343136 355144 363147 368148 371146 374140 378134 382126
      388121 396117 401114 404111
 0.50 375751 374745 373740 370736 367734 362734 356736 350742
      349747 350753 349765 346774 348778 353777 358772 365764
      370758 373756 375751
 0.50 350846 351844 351842 351840 350839 348839 346839 345840
      343842 342843 341844 340845 340847 340849 341851 342852
      344852 345852 347852 349851 349848 350847 350846
 1.00 436887 435886 435885 435883 434880 433879 433878 432876
      432874 431873 430873 429874 428874 427876 427879 427881
      427883 427886 427888 428890 429891 430892 432892 434890
      436888 436887
 1.00 366133 365129 362128 357122 352117 347112 343110 339109
      334108 331110 331114 332117 337123 342128 349132 354135
      358136 361136 366133

$$




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