Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 221835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/GOES-SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD. STRONG ONSHORE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED COASTAL RANGES AND THE CASCADES. THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SETTLE AS FAR SOUTH AS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CA BY
LATER TONIGHT AND ESP ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE SET-UP FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND WPC
LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH AMOUNTS ENHANCED
LOCALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR TOPOGRAPHY AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 12Z
ARW AND 12Z NMMB SOLUTIONS. THIS MEANS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE OR
CASCADES AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA COASTAL RANGES.


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THURS. INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FOSTER A N/S ORIENTED BAND OF
BROKEN CONVECTION...AND ESPECIALLY IN CONCERT WITH AN UPTICK IN
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT
THIS FRONT WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY...WITH A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
SO...CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME CONSIDERABLY
DISORGANIZED AND MORE LIMITED ON THURSDAY. WPC GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF.


...SOUTH FLORIDA...

A VERY STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SITUATED OVER SOUTH FL IN
PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED W/E ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SOME OF THIS FOCUSED EAST ACROSS
THE FL KEYS. NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED AGAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THE
BEST ORGANIZATION SHOULD TEND TO BE FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO CUBA
AND THE ADJACENT NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.


...NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SWINGING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENT AND STRONG
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS FROM THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST A DEEP ATLANTIC FETCH OF MOISTURE...WITH H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 4 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY THURSDAY OVER MUCH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL THE
WHILE...A ROBUST MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE REGION GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE
GLOBAL MODELS LED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ME...WITH THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM-CONEST...12Z ARW AND 12Z
NMMB FAVORING SOMEWHAT HEAVIER TOTALS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN ME AND INTO COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MA AND NH. WPC QPF
FAVORED A BLENDED APPROACH BETWEEN CAMPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
TROUBLE THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HAVING IN HANDLING THE
QPF DETAILS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. IN ANY CASE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH WPC FAVORING 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS GIVEN SUCH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO COME IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 453626 460631 463633 466638 474656 478666 479680 479687
      479692 479704 475729 468745 464753 458761 447773 442776
      439777 434778 429777 423777 420776 411777 403774 401771
      401765 403760 402755 399754 398756 397761 388763 378762
      374763 371760 369756 368750 369745 371740 372736 375731
      381725 384723 386719 385712 387709 390704 392701 397684
      399678 397674 395669 396664 398655 399650 403648 407643
      413639
 0.01 538199 529167 525163 520157 513148 493129 481125 469128
      445135 439136 436137 434141 432148 431156 437170 438173
      435176 429180 425186 424190 415193 403200 399203 393209
      380231 379241 382246 384251 386253 387256 386259 384261
      383266 383272 398277 410273 421268 431264 437261 442261
      455260 461260 468260 479269 490276 499285 502286 505286
      508285 511282 515275 517268 519258 519253 520247 522245
      520241 518234 516230 516224 516220 517215 519213 522214
      526220 530220 534214 538199
 0.01 521915 516903 510893 508887 505885 501875 501870 499868
      496865 489865 482864 472865 460865 435868 414877 405882
      395889 388895 381902 375911 373917 371920 371925 370929
      368932 365934 359943 354953 352956 353960 354965 361970
      366972 370971 371986 374990 376992 380993 388988 394979
      397975 401972 412966 422962 428962 433963 438965 444965
      456962 466959 477958 484958 489957 494955 499951 508945
      511942 511934 511929 512926 517921 521915
 0.01 231982 235984 237986 240994 243008 244015 247023 251027
      255029 264028 264031 262034 258039 255045 259051 262052
      266052 271048 274047 274050 276055 281059 285057 287052
      289050 293044 293041 291039 290037 286039 287033 290025
      293024 296021 298017 298013 297010 297006 295004 292001
      289999 288002 287005 284011 280013 276013 271008 265005
      263002 262998 261995 259994 253990 250988 248984 247978
      246971 243967 237965 232964
 0.01 278799 277793 275789 271783 264779 258775 251777 246781
      241788 238795 234802 232809 230818 231828 233838 237844
      241846 246846 250845 252842 257836 259832 259827 261819
      265813 266809 270807 276802 278799
 0.25 526193 527181 525173 521165 515159 510154 504150 497149
      493144 492140 489137 484135 483150 480152 476150 469148
      463145 459150 457153 454155 446153 443152 439149 437153
      437159 444170 447176 447179 443181 441182 439188 439194
      441197 441202 445204 446200 451196 456190 465182 468180
      472183 473188 472193 473199 470202 465204 462204 459205
      454209 448211 445212 441211 432208 426204 422206 422209
      422215 419217 413214 407214 404212 401214 398223 392226
      387231 385235 385239 386244 388247 400254 407258 413259
      425255 440252 452252 460253 466254 475257 480261 487266
      494271 500276 504277 506275 508267 510265 512260 514257
      515249 514242 511232 508224 505216 504212 504207 507203
      514202 519202 522200 526193
 0.25 471683 470672 468663 466655 462648 458643 453639 448636
      442636 435636 428639 423644 419649 416655 415660 416664
      417669 417674 415680 404706 401713 400722 403729 408732
      412736 415739 416744 417749 419752 423755 428757 431757
      433754 438750 443746 454737 459733 461728 467712 469706
      472698 471683
 0.25 484909 482905 478904 468902 463901 459899 457895 455893
      445891 440890 434892 419900 411903 402909 396915 394918
      392922 379936 374944 371952 371954 374956 378956 381957
      382960 382966 383969 385972 389970 395965 402961 412956
      419954 430954 439956 444955 449952 453950 454946 453942
      449940 441937 429937 419937 414937 409936 412930 414927
      423922 438914 443923 448925 452925 461924 469921 480917
      483912 484909
 0.25 268800 268797 266794 262790 258787 252786 246789 243793
      240798 238804 235816 235822 235830 238835 242838 248836
      252832 254826 255820 256813 258808 266801 268800
 0.50 523192 524182 522175 518168 513163 508159 504158 496156
      489156 481154 475155 469155 466160 467164 467168 470171
      473173 475175 477183 481188 484190 488191 495194 508194
      516196 521195 523192
 0.50 509254 511247 510241 508232 504223 502216 498208 492202
      488201 485203 478204 464208 451212 425215 420222 418225
      415224 415220 411216 403216 403223 401226 393229 391231
      389235 388239 390242 393245 397247 405251 414253 420252
      434249 442248 448248 465249 472251 478254 485259 492265
      498270 502271 503268 502263 504259 509254
 0.50 467689 467680 466670 464662 461656 454646 450643 446641
      441641 434643 428646 426650 423655 421662 422677 421684
      418690 414699 406708 406712 407715 410718 414724 418726
      422730 423737 422744 423748 426749 432742 437739 443735
      447733 449728 457717 462708 466697 467689
 0.50 463178 463176 462176 461175 460175 459175 458175 456176
      455176 454178 454179 454181 454184 455184 457185 457184
      458184 460183 460182 462181 462180 463178
 0.50 430947 426943 419944 414945 407947 403949 399954 400957
      403956 407954 412952 419950 426950 430947
 0.50 393936 391936 390936 391936 393936 393936
 0.50 389938 387937 386937 384938 382939 381940 380941 379943
      380944 382943 383943 384942 386940 387940 389938 389938
 0.50 257799 256793 254791 248790 245793 241800 238808 236818
      236824 238829 240833 244834 247831 249829 251818 252809
      256801 257799
 1.00 516182 516178 513174 509169 503163 495162 487161 481165
      481173 485179 493181 501183 507184 512186 516185 516182
 1.00 506245 506239 504236 501227 499219 496214 490210 486209
      483209 476212 470213 464212 456214 445217 439217 431219
      426221 425227 423230 420231 416231 412228 411224 410222
      406228 401231 395236 395240 397243 403245 417249 428247
      442243 455244 461243 464241 465237 465233 466229 470223
      474218 478218 483220 489224 492230 495236 499241 502245
      506245
 1.00 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233
      473234 472235 472236 472239 473241 473242 475243 476244
      478245 479245 481244
 1.00 461683 460669 456660 451654 445649 438648 435649 432653
      428661 427669 428683 427687 425690 421697 417705 415708
      414711 416713 422718 427724 430726 433725 438719 444715
      457703 460694 461685 461683
 1.00 250802 249796 246796 244799 242803 240808 238814 238822
      240827 244829 247824 248818 249810 250804 250802
 1.50 466219 465216 461216 454216 446218 438219 432223 429224
      428228 428230 424233 416233 408233 401235 399238 401242
      408243 418246 425246 439241 447241 446238 443236 441232
      443229 449227 456224 462225 466222 466219
 1.50 457687 456675 454666 450660 446656 443654 440654 435659
      432665 432673 431684 430690 426696 423701 422706 422710
      425716 431721 434718 437712 444709 449704 453700 456693
      457687
 1.50 246815 246811 246807 243805 241808 240811 239813 239817
      240821 241825 243825 244823 245821 246817 246815
 2.00 463221 462219 461218 459219 458219 459221 460222 460223
      462222 463221
 2.00 454221 454218 452218 449219 447219 443219 441220 439221
      439225 440227 442227 446226 448225 450224 452223 454221
 2.00 453686 453677 451669 448665 444662 441663 438666 435672
      434679 434685 432691 430696 427700 425705 426712 429716
      432716 434709 440707 444705 448701 451696 453691 453686
 2.00 435240 430238 427236 420234 414236 409236 405239 406241
      410241 413242 418245 423245 429243 433241 435240
 2.00 242819 242817 242815 242813 242811 242813 242815 241817
      242819 242819
 3.00 446693 446688 444683 442681 440682 439685 438687 437690
      436694 435698 438700 441700 442698 445695 446693
 3.00 420240 420238 419237 418240 419241 420240

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.