Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 100818
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
GRADUALLY BE PULLED EASTWARD BY A SERIES OF JET LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA.  GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE BROAD
AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROUGH.  SOME OF THOSE AREAS WILL BE TIED
TO WEAK...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FAST FLOW.  IN OTHER PLACES THE PCPN WILL BE FORCED BY AN
AIRMASS WITH HIGH RH BEING FORCED UPSLOPE IN PLACES LIKE THE WEST
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

IN ADDITION..H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE MINUS 18 TO MINUS 24 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN DOWNWIND...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  AFTER 11/00Z...WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS ALSO STARTED
DEPICTING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO H85 TEMPS FALLING TO READINGS AT OR BELOW MINUS 20
DEGS C.

GIVEN THE MESOSCALE AND GEOGRAPHIC FORCING INVOLVED...WE TENDED TO
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE FINER SCALE ECMWF/GFS AND ON THE HI RES
CAM GUIDANCE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST OVER THE WEST WILL GENERATE
AND SUSTAIN A 130+ KT 250 MB JET STREAK.  INITIALLY STARTING OUT
ON A LINE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MN/IA....THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS
EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL LATER TODAY.  A NARROW STRIPE
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO
A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MODEL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE GOOD SO TENDED TOWARDS AN OVERALL CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR THE MANUAL WPC GRAPHICS.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEASTERN U.S...

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY -- PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY ON THURSDAY
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT MODELS SHOW THESE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A TEMPORARILY A LITTLE
MORE SUBSIDENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS STABILITY DECREASES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE -- LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE. THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS
WILL BE RATHER DRY WHICH WILL KEEP OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LIGHTER
THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.

UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOWS MAY EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL AND
AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT -- BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS GIVEN THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

WPC QPF WAS GENERALLY COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS
WELL AS IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN LAKE EFFECT AREAS AS WELL IN FAVORED
AREAS OF TERRAIN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- THE FIRST ON THURSDAY AND A SECOND
EARLY FRIDAY. MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN NEUTRAL
HEIGHT FALLS. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IN MODELS IS FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERN CA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON/OREGON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO DO THIS QUICKER
RELATIVE TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO SEEMS SLOWER RELATIVE TO THE
ECMWF WITH MOVING THE TROUGH INLAND. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH THE IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROVIDED
A BASIS FOR QPF ACROSS THIS AREAS. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR TOPOGRAPHY.


...SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH A WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. WITH THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF NOW ALL
DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS WERE HEAVIER WITH QPF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA RELATIVE TO THE UKMET AND ECMWF. WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH INTRODUCES RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537202 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510174 510178 516185 519194 522205 526214 530216 532214
      536210
 0.01 521268 522253 517243 513231 511226 508222 503214 500210
      494208 483206 474209 467212 459216 457221 460225 465227
      469225 475220 479220 481221 483223 485228 486231 484233
      480230 475228 467231 463231 458232 454230 451233 448236
      445240 436241 430240 427235 424231 420231 412237 406244
      402246 399250 402259 405263 410262 417258 420255 420250
      426250 430249 435250 437249 437253 436257 436263 435267
      437269 441271 449270 460270 470274 482279 499291 506293
      510293 513291
 0.01 516009 516001 513996 504991 487979 479972 475970 471966
      461960 452955 448952 443951 439949 433945 430942 426937
      419928 416925 412921 405913 390899 384890 379880 374876
      370871 368867 364867 363875 361879 363885 366889 371899
      374909 379918 386927 401943 414959 421968 428975 436983
      445988 463999 481010 491015 501019 507020 511017 516009
 0.01 508794 506773 504765 503756 503750 501747 496745 492744
      490746 486747 484750 481749 477744 474743 475740 475734
      474729 473720 468714 467712 468708 472703 475698 476692
      473687 469683 464682 460678 456671 457661 458657 457652
      453648 445651 439653 432657 429658 427654 424650 420646
      399660 389666 383667 375669 370672 364675 356685 351691
      348696 345701 343708 342713 341717 339720 331727 326731
      323736 316747 313753 310760 306765 309770 313775 316781
      328779 333776 337771 345763 354754 360753 367754 371756
      375754 378753 380750 383744 386737 389735 393736 403740
      413745 414760 415770 416775 413778 410779 405779 400783
      398785 394787 390790 384795 379800 375805 371808 362815
      358818 355824 352829 350835 347840 346842 348845 350846
      353844 356840 361835 363837 363841 359847 355851 351857
      351859 353859 362854 366850 370849 372847 377846 379848
      379853 389856 396860 400864 404870 410871 422876 427876
      432875 439874 445870 452871 457874 460879 462881 462886
      459892 460901 463908 465910 468910 473896 482887 485882
      485874 483865 480859 479854 479850 478847 474847 470846
      466846 462845 461840 462833 462822 465820 468821 474832
      476838 478840 481839 484837 487836 490835 492831 500821
      503813 504807 508794
 0.01 431840 431838 430836 429833 428831 427831 426830 424830
      422830 421832 419834 421836 421837 423839 425841 426840
      428840 428841 430842 431840
 0.25 518271 519264 518259 516250 508234 503227 498219 496217
      492217 491219 490223 491227 492237 486238 484240 480239
      478235 474234 471242 473246 476248 485261 490270 495277
      502282 506283 509281 515277 518271
 0.25 468875 468873 468870 467868 465866 464867 464868 464871
      465873 466876 468878 468875
 0.25 446729 446727 447724 445723 444725 442728 442730 443732
      445733 445732 446729 446729
 0.25 445761 445754 444747 441742 439743 436748 433751 431754
      429759 430766 433770 437771 439771 442770 443766 445761
 0.25 440798 439794 435793 431793 431788 429783 426783 421789
      415793 413796 411800 411804 411810 412815 414817 418816
      419813 424808 428806 431803 435804 438801 440798
 0.25 437818 436816 435815 433814 432813 431814 432815 432816
      434817 435818 435819 437818
 0.25 429864 428863 427862 426861 424861 422860 420860 419862
      419863 419864 420865 421865 422866 424866 426866 428865
      429864
 0.25 387710 386702 384697 383689 383685 381681 377680 373681
      370685 368689 363699 358709 353717 349727 352729 359729
      371727 377724 381720 384717 386712 387710
 0.25 387802 386801 385801 384802 385803 387802 387802
 0.50 515269 517263 516259 513250 510243 506237 500230 498228
      495229 496238 500245 503252 506258 510265 512269 515269
 0.50 504276 504272 503268 501262 498256 496251 491245 487244
      486249 488257 490262 493266 497272 502277 504276
 0.50 379702 378696 377689 376687 373688 370693 369698 366703
      363708 360713 361718 363719 367719 373715 376711 378705
      379702

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 472619 475622 476628 473635 470640 467644 465646 464650
      460658 459667 458669 459672 462676 466682 471690 474698
      474702 470706 467708 464711 463723 460731 458735 458742
      459753 456759 449760 446759 444761 441763 440773 433790
      429796 428801 431804 433807 436807 440806 441802 448785
      452784 455785 458788 458796 459802 458806 456815 451831
      447831 443830 438825 430822 425817 422814 417814 412817
      409813 408810 402804 397805 395801 386802 386797 388794
      396789 408780 413776 417768 418747 419736 414730 406735
      400740 393743 384745 379746 375745 369743 365741 363738
      359734 358729 354721 352713 352704 353694 356686 360679
      366673 373668 379663 386660 395658 403658 410661 417660
      431650 439645 442642 444639 446636 451632 458629 462623
 0.01 550107 549098 545090 542084 539075 532061 523049 518043
      512038 507034 503026 495013 492007 487002 485000 481997
      474996 467996 461003 458003 456005 454009 456012 460019
      461025 462028 470041 474046 478052 487063 499072 503078
      509084 514089 517096 526108 530114 536118 539119 541121
      546120 550107
 0.01 536210 537204 537200 535193 528180 525174 523171 520167
      512157 509151 506148 495139 491134 487131 478129 474131
      472133 472138 475142 477143 477146 474149 472150 469147
      467147 465149 464161 465164 465169 468175 470181 469191
      466200 462204 453213 444220 443230 439236 428238 421240
      417243 412249 406250 399248 395250 393253 394256 397261
      402266 404269 408271 412272 415275 411280 408287 408291
      409295 412300 418302 425304 432304 439305 446308 447311
      451312 458315 464315 471318 474319 477318 483315 491308
      501304 509296 516281 519273 521270 522264 521255 519247
      515232 513224 513219 515215 517213 521214 527218 529217
      533214 536210
 0.01 484869 484864 483859 481849 477842 474833 474828 472825
      468826 467829 464836 463841 459844 451845 448846 446851
      441856 440861 445866 454865 458864 461866 462878 463883
      464888 468895 471895 473893 475890 476885 479877 483872
      484869
 0.01 462181 461175 454174 454169 455165 457162 451161 447160
      446157 442159 440161 440166 444169 444172 447175 449175
      450180 448182 445184 441185 439187 438192 438196 439197
      441190 446187 449188 450193 452195 452191 455187 458185
      462181
 0.01 456692 453684 448685 444688 442694 440698 437700 435703
      431704 424710 422712 423714 425715 431716 438718 442713
      447707 453702 456695 456692
 0.01 445973 446966 445959 442947 438936 435928 424909 411898
      404892 401889 395890 392890 389896 389901 389906 393916
      396921 398924 404932 407937 409942 414950 416954 419957
      431973 439976 445973
 0.01 424862 423860 422860 420860 419860 418860 419863 421863
      422863 424862 424862
 0.01 357834 358832 357830 356830 356832 356835 357835 357834
 0.01 322808 320805 316803 311804 305805 303808 302812 304815
      308817 312818 316817 320815 321810 322808
 0.25 519265 519258 517251 512239 500214 498209 493206 490203
      487203 483202 480203 476204 471208 463214 459217 457223
      457231 453236 449240 445245 442249 439256 437264 439270
      441276 446281 452284 457284 468283 479282 484281 489283
      495285 500286 510283 513281 515275 519265
 0.25 523195 523191 522188 520185 519183 516181 514183 512185
      509185 509188 510189 513191 515193 516192 518194 521195
      523195
 0.25 502181 502178 502177 501175 500174 499172 497171 496171
      495171 495174 495175 496177 496178 497180 498180 499182
      501182 502181
 0.25 451654 450653 448653 446655 445656 443659 444661 445661
      446661 447660 449658 450657 451654
 0.25 394682 393677 389677 386679 384683 380691 376699 371706
      369710 369716 372718 377717 386714 390711 392708 394703
      394699 393690 394682
 0.50 516267 517259 515253 512244 507234 503225 498215 495212
      489210 484208 479208 475209 472212 465218 463222 463228
      462235 460241 455248 450258 450263 454266 457266 461268
      470270 480270 489275 498281 503281 507280 516267
 1.00 502270 501259 498248 492240 489237 484238 481236 479233
      475230 472233 470241 471246 476253 482260 489268 497273
      502270
 1.00 503241 501233 500227 497221 492218 489213 484214 484220
      486221 489222 491224 493233 494238 499242 502243 503241
 1.50 497262 497258 497255 494248 491242 489240 485240 481244
      479237 478234 474233 474239 478243 481249 484255 487260
      492264 497262
 1.50 497231 497229 497228 495228 495231 496233 497231
 2.00 495259 495257 493253 492250 491246 490244 487242 485245
      484248 484250 486253 488257 489259 492261 495259

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 525260 515228 509217 501207 499202 501199 505199 508202
      511207 516212 521216 528219 534220 537215 538211 538205
      538200 537195 535187 530182 527177 524170 521165 516160
      504150 494142 490137 486132 475126 470125 469132 465134
      461133 459130 456130 454132 453139 453143 452145 447150
      443149 440146 438146 436148 435154 436159 436165 438168
      441172 441177 440182 437185 431190 430197 431201 430206
      423210 420216 415219 396231 392236 391246 389250 390254
      392260 396266 400270 404274 407275 409274 417275 425273
      434268 440266 446266 452266 459267 465267 472266 477270
      482275 486280 491285 503289 509287 513282 517278 521272
 0.01 541092 542084 541076 539066 535058 531052 523046 516042
      506032 498026 494023 491022 485017 480017 478014 461008
      455003 450998 442992 438990 434990 431992 430996 430003
      432006 434011 437014 440018 443020 449024 456028 463035
      469041 473049 476056 477062 474068 472070 472074 474079
      476084 478087 481088 484090 489089 492087 492081 491079
      492076 497077 503080 506083 512086 517093 523097 531099
      536099 538097 541092
 0.01 478704 476692 468684 465685 462687 457692 457695 455697
      452700 447705 440709 436715 435720 433724 429726 427731
      427738 425741 419747 415753 416763 414772 409777 380797
      371808 364813 360819 357821 356826 355832 357835 361829
      365829 367832 369836 373835 377835 379837 388836 392831
      395821 398819 401818 407819 413824 419828 427827 434830
      440834 443836 443841 438849 431856 424853 417854 409857
      408861 409865 413870 418875 422877 426877 438875 443872
      451868 455870 458873 461882 461893 465900 470898 473892
      475888 484873 486870 486864 480859 473848 466843 462840
      459837 456828 455814 456802 459794 465782 468772 469765
      468759 465757 461758 458754 460750 461741 465734 468727
      471718 474713 476710 478704
 0.01 459669 458664 456662 453654 454648 452644 438648 427647
      423646 419644 415646 410647 407650 404652 401652 399655
      394658 390661 386666 382667 380670 375675 371679 369684
      363695 361700 357704 346713 340716 335719 326726 322730
      319734 310744 307750 305754 300765 296775 294780 295790
      297798 300802 304806 309805 314805 318802 336786 341783
      344783 347785 351784 354782 362769 365764 367758 368751
      369748 371746 381748 389747 394745 396744 400739 404735
      408730 411725 413720 415715 452683 459669
 0.01 415896 415885 413879 405866 397857 386849 381847 374848
      372851 372855 374858 375862 377868 380875 386886 394899
      398904 403906 406908 408908 412903 415896
 0.25 531208 533205 532200 531196 527188 519172 513167 505164
      497161 490156 483152 476152 468155 466157 466162 468168
      470171 477175 484181 492183 508190 515195 519202 522206
      526208 531208
 0.25 521264 521259 519254 516247 513240 511233 503218 496208
      492205 487204 481205 475207 471209 464212 458213 447216
      439218 435223 431229 427234 420235 414237 411240 412242
      414248 418251 423252 429250 434247 440246 455247 462248
      468250 475255 480259 488270 493277 500282 504282 506280
      509274 517270 521264
 0.25 487233 486232 486230 485229 484227 482225 481225 479225
      478225 478228 478229 480231 481233 483234 484235 486234
      487233
 0.25 462181 462178 461175 459175 456175 453176 452179 451183
      450185 449187 451190 454192 456189 457187 459185 461183
      462181
 0.25 437765 437763 437760 437758 435756 434758 433759 432761
      432762 432764 432766 432768 433770 435770 436768 436767
      437765
 0.25 424798 424796 424794 423792 421794 420797 419799 419802
      419804 420805 422803 423801 424800 424798
 0.25 394699 393695 390693 385695 380700 376706 373713 370720
      373724 379720 386716 391711 394703 394699
 0.25 364730 362728 357729 350731 341732 334736 328742 324747
      314760 309767 308774 309784 312786 314785 321779 327775
      333769 340764 346760 350753 354746 358738 364730
 0.50 517265 518260 516254 513246 508232 504223 500217 495211
      491209 488208 479210 473211 467214 462216 456219 453221
      449221 446222 447225 448229 447232 445237 446240 448241
      457242 462239 467236 470239 471244 477249 482253 487259
      495273 498276 501275 502269 500265 497256 493250 489242
      484238 478232 476229 475225 477222 480222 486225 489229
      491233 495240 499246 501254 509263 514266 517265
 0.50 525195 523190 520187 517184 515180 511177 507176 501168
      497166 493165 488163 483163 484171 486174 495178 500180
      505180 512185 518191 522194 525195
 0.50 423243 422243 420242 420244 422244 423243
 0.50 341744 340740 337742 334745 332748 329752 327755 325760
      327761 330760 333757 336754 338750 341746 341744
 1.00 506245 505236 503231 501225 497219 492214 489213 485215
      485217 485220 488222 492226 495232 497238 501243 503245
      506245
 1.00 481241 480239 479236 477235 476236 474237 474239 475240
      476242 478243 480242 481241
 1.00 468220 468219 466218 464218 463218 462219 461220 460220
      460221 462222 464222 465221 466221 467220 468220
 1.50 500235 500233 500232 499229 499228 499227 498224 497224
      496222 494223 494225 494226 494228 495230 496231 496232
      497234 498235 499237 500235

$$




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