Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240626
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 24/1200 UTC THRU JAN 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EAST COAST...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES..THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE HANDLING OF LOW
PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF S/WV TROF LIFTING NEWD FROM GULF COAST REGION.  MODELS
TAKE DEEPENING SFC WAVE NEWD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE WRN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY EVENING..THEN CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NEWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
BASED ON TRACK OF LOW...BEST WAA LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE COMBINATION OF WAA AND FAVORABLE
COUPLED JET PATRN GENLY SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS QPF FCST OF .50 TO 1
INCH AMOUNTS FROM ERN MA INTO DOWNEAST MAINE.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS
FAR WEST WITH .50 INCH AMOUNTS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE 12Z EC
GIVEN MAJORITY OF 00Z SOLNS ARE DRIER THERE.  OTHERWISE...A GENLY
BLEND OF GFS/NAM/UKMET SOLNS SEEMED REASONABLE.   FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPECT A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTIVE RAINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SWD THROUGH CNTL/SRN FL AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH
THE STATE ON SAT AND BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

UPR RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE PD WHICH WILL FORCE CURRENT ONSHORE/WAA PATRN TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD INTO SW CANADA THIS PD.  IN THE MEANTIME...AS
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTS THROUGH WRN WA..EXPECT SOME MDT PCPN
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA WITH LIGHT PCPN
AMOUNTS CARRYING EWD INTO NW FL INTO PARTS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.   CONTINUITY WAS GENLY USED HERE GIVEN
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SEWD FROM WRN CANADA.  00Z MODELS ARE REASONABLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITH TRACK OF ASSOCD SFC LOW..TAKING SYSTEM ACRS IA SAT NIGHT.
AVAILABLE MSTR IS RATHER LIMITED DESPITE INCREASING MID/UPR
FORCING...SO OVERALL AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN .25 INC FROM THE NRN DAKOTAS SEWD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA...SRN
WI/NRN IL. SEE QPFHSD FROM FURTHER DETAILS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 502313 491314 487314 486305 482297 478295 477292 473285
      470279 468273 466265 463258 463250 462246 459242 458238
      460235 463235 465228 459225 458221 460218 464212 469210
      473205 478202 491196 490187 485182 481181 477181 473184
      463191 460193 456192 452191 451186 451178 453173 455173
      459172 461170 462165 460162 453158 445155 442154 440151
      440147 442144 446142 448139 450135 450129 453128 457124
      455120 452119 448124 445123 444120 442117 438116 420116
      424111 427104 431096 434094 438095 442096 448093 453093
      459095 463097 465094 465091 468088 471088 474093 477101
      482105 485109 486111 484114 485116 489121 494126 496128
      495131 493134 496137 502142 522157 525158 526161 531167
      532171 534177 537185 542198
 0.01 557120 548107 539094 533087 529083 526081 523079 520078
      516075 512074 507080 504091 502096 499095 492094 489086
      487076 485070 483065 478059 474057 470056 461055 456057
      453056 447053 444050 441046 439043 440039 443036 446036
      448034 449027 448021 446017 442010 441002 443999 444996
      443994 428985 423981 421978 422973 423964 417959 412952
      410949 410945 407938 401931 398929 395925 391918 387911
      385907 385904 388895 392888 396881 400873 403862 404858
      404852 409847 418846 424850 427857 433866 434871 436876
      440884 444889 449896 453903 460918 463923 465927 471932
      476938 481944 483947 485951 489957 495963 502966 509968
      516971 529983 539995 548006 553016 556027 561046 564054
      563068
 0.01 489613 493620 496625 497632 499640 499647 505652 511662
      515672 517685 517691 517700 517711 515722 513726 509725
      504720 489690 488699 485710 477727 474730 471736 469740
      470743 472743 474746 476750 478752 478755 479764 480777
      478787 473795 468802 463812 459823 457828 455833 453843
      452846 457846 460844 463845 471863 474872 476877 475882
      472893 470898 465903 460906 458901 458895 460884 462873
      462866 460861 458859 455859 450860 446858 441858 439853
      437847 437836 438829 436826 434826 428822 422815 419814
      418816 416820 415824 415827 413832 410836 408833 406829
      406822 405810 402805 399808 396812 393810 391810 389813
      387816 384820 381823 377830 369836 365839 361841 358843
      353844 346842 348840 348836 347830 343821 342815 336813
      331813 327812 321813 317815 314817 308819 299819 290819
      280818 272821 256833 244843 234850 228851 219852 216838
      218833 222829 231820 241812 244807 241807 238810 236811
      236808 238802 240796 242793 244791 260772 267762 275751
      281741 286737 291733 295729 300724 305720 309715 326695
      335687 346678 367662 378652
 0.01 463698 463696 461694 460696 460699 462701 463698
 0.01 454703 455700 453700 451701 450703 449704 448706 447707
      449708 450708 452707 453705 454705 454703
 0.01 455076 454073 453071 450068 448067 447065 445065 443067
      440069 441074 443076 444079 446081 449081 453081 453078
      455076
 0.01 448761 446759 444760 443761 445763 446762 448761
 0.01 442718 441716 439718 439719 438720 436722 435724 437726
      439725 439724 440722 441721 442720 442718
 0.01 442735 441733 440734 438734 436734 435735 433735 431737
      431738 430740 430741 429743 430744 432744 434744 436743
      437743 439743 440740 442738 442737 442735
 0.01 425767 424760 423754 420759 418762 415767 414770 411775
      409777 408781 411781 415778 418776 421773 424769 425767
 0.25 472619 477621 481625 484633 483640 482648 479655 473667
      466676 458684 453691 449695 441704 435714 428724 424730
      419735 409742 397745 393745 389749 380758 370766 362774
      353781 346784 340786 332789 326790 314793 300795 292795
      285794 279792 275789 273777 275772 279767 289759 294754
      298752 303748 306744 313735 327714 339696 349687 359679
      377664 399649 405645 411640
 0.25 525258 514237 509225 503215 500210 496208 489205 485207
      476210 468216 467218 468222 473221 478220 484222 488225
      490230 493237 493242 490238 487236 484237 483240 481239
      478233 475232 473234 472239 475245 478251 484260 486274
      490285 494290 499293 511293
 0.25 529207 529200 529195 526183 522174 516167 509162 506160
      500159 494158 488159 483152 479153 474152 466148 463150
      463154 465156 471161 476163 481164 486165 489169 495176
      499183 502187 505190 511192 517200 523205 529207
 0.25 513017 514012 513006 511004 510003 507001 505000 502999
      498000 497001 497004 498007 500009 501011 504014 506015
      508016 511018 513017
 0.25 492147 490142 489137 488133 484130 480128 475129 472131
      471134 471138 473141 478144 481146 484150 487152 491150
      492147
 0.25 256820 256816 253815 251816 249818 246821 245822 243824
      241826 241829 243830 245829 249827 250826 253824 255822
      256820
 0.50 463623 472627 475629 479635 479640 478644 476651 470662
      464671 456680 439699 432707 427718 423723 417728 412730
      406732 393735 387737 382740 365757 359766 355770 351773
      343775 337778 325782 319784 312785 298786 291786 289784
      288782 292778 297774 301764 309756 322737 333717 339707
      346697 353688 362681 373673 382666 392660 402654 415647
      426641 432641 435640 437637 443633 449628
 0.50 522267 520264 520258 518252 516248 511240 506232 502223
      495216 488211 479213 479216 481218 484220 492222 492227
      493232 497242 498247 496250 491242 487239 485242 481247
      483252 488259 491270 495277 500287 505287 508286 514280
      516280
 0.50 513184 512183 511181 510179 508179 507177 505176 505177
      506179 506180 508181 509183 511184 512184 513184
 0.50 480241 479238 477235 476235 475235 476236 476237 477239
      478241 480241 480241
 0.50 485136 484135 483133 481132 479135 481136 482137 484137
      485136
 1.00 514266 514260 513255 511250 509249 505260 501260 498257
      492250 490246 487245 487249 491258 495267 498276 501279
      504281 506277 507269 511269 514266
 1.00 473642 471638 468635 459634 454634 450638 443646 437652
      434655 429656 424655 419656 410659 400664 391668 381674
      373680 367685 361693 355702 351711 346718 339722 335727
      333732 333735 335737 340737 343737 345740 345743 340751
      338755 338759 340761 348756 354749 361743 377730 384726
      394722 405718 414713 421708 424705 425700 426695 427693
      431691 439685 453673 468657 471650 473642
 1.50 503273 503271 503270 502267 500265 499263 497262 496262
      497265 497268 498270 498271 499272 501274 502273 503273
 1.50 467649 466642 462641 458642 455643 451647 449651 449657
      452661 456662 461659 464656 467652 467649
 1.50 427666 426664 422663 414663 406667 399670 392674 386678
      375688 370694 368701 365709 364713 367716 382717 389714
      396710 402705 403701 406698 410693 414686 418679 423675
      426670 427666
 2.00 462651 462648 461648 459648 458649 458652 460652 462652
      462651
 2.00 401685 396685 392685 389686 384689 381693 379695 378700
      381703 386701 389699 392696 395692 398689 401685

$$





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