Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 310654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

CENTRAL GULF COAST--TN VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST

AN AIRMASS PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD DAY 1 FROM THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS.  THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
TROF WHICH WAS COMPRISED OF BOTH A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS--WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.  UPPER LEVEL DIFULENCE AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BECOME LESS WELL
DEFINED SINCE SAT AFTN...SUGGESTING WELL ORGANIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE LESS LIKELY.  EVEN SO...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED RUN OFF PROBLEMS MAY STILL OCCUR IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO.  THE
MODELS STILL POINTED AT THE IDEA THAT RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME
LIGHTER WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

TEXAS GULF COAST

ONE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OFF THE LOWER TX COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
DRIFT INLAND OVER SOUTH TX.  LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS--AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MID
TX GULF COAST AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER FLARE UP OF
CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY

A COLD FRONT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER AIR
OBS SUPPORTED THE MODEL FORECAST IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED REGION OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THE
RESULTING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING LLJ.  THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS
VARIED.  ONE PCPN MAX ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY SHOULD BE AIDED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...WHICH CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH IN IA AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES SHOULD BLOSSOM IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ.  THE WPC PCPN MAX IN THE SOUTHERN AREA WAS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES IN AN AREA WHICH RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECENTLY.  AS A RESULT WE PLACED A SLIGHT RISK
ALONG THE AXIS WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO ALIGN WITH WHERE THE MODELS
EXPECT THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MUCH WETTER
SOLNS SHOWN BY THE ARW AND NMMB MAY PROVE CORRECT.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 476618 478629 479634 482634 486630 490632 495634 498636
      501637 500639 502650 503687 504697 504705 502720 502729
      501740 500748 499757 497773 493787 492795 489803 484815
      482820 480822 477823 473826 467829 463827 460825 459821
      460814 460808 458803 455797 451794 448793 445793 441796
      435799 432803 425815 419825 416830 414837 412843 408850
      404854 401860 399867 397873 392885 389890 383891 378894
      373898 364904 359907 353910 343917 338920 334926 331929
      329936 323947 317959 310969 304976 297983 286991 280991
      273989 263992 256992 251990 248984 248975 252964 263947
      279929 286920 295914 316904 331885 337873 342860 346850
      347843 347833 347829 349826 351824 356819 361815 368806
      372794 374787 379782 382776 383773 383770 382769 370775
      360773 356770 354765 353757 356752 364744 373736 378731
      381724 386720 391717 396714 401709 407700 413689 418677
      422665 426652 428641 433633
 0.01 539211 538202 536192 534184 530177 528169 524164 519159
      515154 505148 507145 507141 503135 499130 494125 491119
      486113 484112 482108 479098 481095 480093 476086 471083
      463081 459077 461069 463061 461053 469051 472052 475054
      476051 475041 471029 462014 458010 455003 453999 455996
      458989 463984 465983 467986 470991 474995 483005 490007
      494007 501006 506004 513002 518997 527987 530982 534977
      538976 539974 542968 547954 550947 550940 544923 541916
      539909 537906 534904 530903 530899 531897 532893 533887
      531879 527873 523869 519865 513863 504856 498853 495852
      491852 482857 470864 448881 443883 436884 432883 425887
      416895 407904 390922 382935 376949 371960 370967 371974
      376979 380981 383980 385983 383992 381999 381008 384015
      385022 385033 387037 387043 388050 387058 380068 379072
      379077 384081 394084 400081 404082 408082 418076 424076
      423084 422089 423093 425097 423102 414112 413115 415118
      418121 423126 424129 426129 432127 437130 440130 442128
      446127 450127 455132 456140 455151 456159 460163 468167
      473166 478162 480157 478154 479150 487153 492156 497159
      500161 500165 500170 501175 504182 518206 519210 522213
      527217 532221 536223
 0.01 521264 521258 520255 517251 514247 512241 509227 505222
      503217 501211 497207 488208 481208 477210 473213 471218
      471221 474222 479221 487229 487234 485235 480235 476231
      471233 466233 462237 462241 464243 465245 469247 474251
      479252 484252 487256 491268 498279 501283 507285 510283
      512281 513277 518270 521264
 0.01 476126 475124 473121 472121 470119 469120 468120 467120
      465122 464124 465126 466126 468126 470127 471127 473127
      475127 476126
 0.01 340808 340802 338801 336804 331804 319810 303814 296816
      288816 282814 278809 276801 272797 257793 255793 252794
      246798 242803 239809 238814 242820 248825 252829 256834
      260838 268841 275841 279838 283837 286839 291843 295849
      298855 302861 306866 308867 310865 316852 321838 324832
      328827 340808
 0.01 288091 285085 281081 272073 262065 252057 247054 240052
      237051 236055 237061 239069 243073 253081 263088 268092
      272096 277101 281099 285095 288091
 0.25 461623 464628 466637 467645 468653 470658 472662 476673
      477680 477686 477693 478691 479678 482669 485665 489662
      493662 494663 495667 495679 495693 493718 490741 486766
      483776 482781 481783 479782 477777 476772 476757 476746
      475738 474730 473722 474714 476709 476703 471711 466718
      451731 449734 449739 449742 448746 442757 437765 427779
      423787 419796 415806 411814 400831 392848 389856 386866
      382875 380878 375881 365885 361886 356885 354883 353876
      355866 357860 358857 357853 361844 364837 365831 366827
      371817 374806 378799 383792 388785 391776 394771 395765
      393760 391757 385757 378759 376759 374757 375752 379744
      385736 396724 411713 418705 422695 427676 434659 438651
      444642 450634 456625
 0.25 530205 530198 529194 527188 525184 523179 520178 516179
      514179 513181 515187 517190 519196 521199 523204 526207
      530206 530205
 0.25 509251 507245 505240 503236 501233 500227 498222 495220
      491222 494227 495231 497237 499240 501245 504248 507253
      509251
 0.25 519936 519925 517918 514914 512907 509903 505901 496896
      490885 487880 482878 478880 473883 465889 459892 454894
      448895 443894 438893 432895 424902 415909 407915 401922
      393931 387941 384953 383960 383964 385965 390968 394972
      396976 394982 392988 392995 395000 398000 404997 408994
      416987 422978 428970 433966 436967 442966 447962 454955
      463950 469950 472951 474954 474967 481976 486985 489991
      494993 499990 502987 509979 512973 512968 511959 511955
      519936
 0.25 477701 478699 478696 476695 476697 476699 476702 477703
      477701
 0.25 458108 457103 455098 453094 450092 447094 443094 438095
      437100 436107 437112 441115 447114 450112 455113 457108
      458108
 0.25 453083 453078 452075 449070 445066 445060 449056 451046
      448041 445034 442020 435021 434024 434028 435035 431040
      433047 434054 433061 435068 436074 443076 451084 453083
 0.25 306952 306943 305936 301931 296929 292931 291933 289939
      287945 283949 276956 272960 268965 268971 271976 272978
      276979 281978 290972 294968 297963 305954 306952
 0.25 266821 266819 264817 263815 262814 261813 260813 258812
      256812 255814 255816 256818 257820 259821 261822 263823
      265823 266823 266821 266821
 0.50 505931 504925 501922 496918 491913 485909 482905 479904
      472901 465900 456900 448901 441901 439899 436899 430904
      424909 419914 414919 407924 401928 396933 392940 389947
      389954 392956 397961 399964 400969 399977 400983 402986
      408985 413980 417975 423968 428964 434959 440957 466940
      474938 482939 488941 497940 502936 505931
 0.50 497980 498975 498970 497967 496964 492963 489963 486964
      484967 484969 484972 486975 487980 489982 490983 494985
      497982 497980
 0.50 454678 454671 453664 451661 450657 450653 447653 442659
      439667 435674 431681 429689 423706 420714 417720 407723
      400726 390737 384743 383748 386750 395749 399748 402745
      415735 421730 424729 425732 429733 428736 424743 418759
      417763 417768 417771 419770 422766 430754 435747 437739
      434730 440724 446718 447714 447710 443706 444698 447692
      451687 453683 454678
 0.50 404799 396799 395792 393790 388797 382802 378809 374817
      372825 370830 370832 371835 370841 368844 364852 366864
      366868 368871 373872 376870 380864 387847 389838 390828
      395820 398812 404799
 0.50 289964 290958 287956 283957 279959 277962 274966 272970
      274974 279975 282972 285970 288966 289964
 1.00 461920 455914 451912 447911 439911 431916 425922 422925
      419927 403935 397941 395945 395949 404951 406955 406961
      407974 414970 420963 426958 434954 437951 440948 445940
      449932 461920
 1.50 439935 438928 436925 431925 428928 425931 421932 414935
      407940 406944 407946 410949 413949 413952 414959 416959
      419956 423952 426950 430949 433945 437937 439935

$$




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