Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 272012
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 28/0000 UTC THRU OCT 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 1 AHEAD
OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING TOWARD THE
B.C. COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY  PUSHING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON AND WA COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC
RANGE---WITH  A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN THE COAST RANGES AND THE CASCADES.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE ABOVE REFERENCED MAXIMA WITH
THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HI RES ARW
USED FOR DETAILS.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CONSOLIDATING INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST LIFT IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION REGION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS ONTARIO.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION REGION TO EXTEND
INTO NORTHEAST MN AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P.
OF MI---WITH .25-.50" AREAL AVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---LOWER TN VALLEY INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS
VALLEY

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO.  WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION---ESPECIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID TO
LOWER MS VALLEY.  .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE
REGIONS---WITH MAX AMOUNTS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY---LOWER TN
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE CONVECTION MAY MAXIMIZE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

DAYS 2-3...

...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUE...SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST..FAR NORTHERN CA AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE TUE AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 THIS SYSTEM -- A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE COAST
ON THU...WITH SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN WA
AND OREGON.  TO ADDRESS THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A COMPROMISE WAS FOLLOWED BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NAM/GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF.

...THE GREAT LAKES/OH-MS-TN VALLEYS/GULF COAST STATES/EASTERN
SEABOARD...

OVERALL THE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC AND SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.  RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF
THE UPPER JET MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FROM SOUTHERN AR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.

ORAVEC/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 535215 537205 537197 538189 534184 525175 516168 505163
      492159 486157 479157 472157 469157 466159 465159 463162
      462168 463173 465174 466177 470179 474184 471195 469203
      468205 464205 459203 458201 458195 458190 460185 458182
      455181 453182 451188 449204 445208 440210 428213 424215
      422217 421221 422224 425226 425231 422232 417232 412235
      409241 411248 411252 414254 416256 418259 422265 427267
      447262 457267 471268 476270 482273 484279 485282 489284
      493288 500291 503293 506292 511289 514285 517278 519270
      522261 521252 521247 520243 515232 513226 508221 502209
      504206 506208 509212 512214 514216 519223 524226 527227
      529224 535215
 0.01 534816 533798 532788 530779 528770 525764 520751 515738
      509726 491711 484704 477714 474719 470723 463734 448752
      431771 415788 399804 385821 368841 343881 338891 334902
      331906 328913 326919 324928 321939 318950 323953 327950
      333960 335965 337971 341976 343976 344981 344987 345990
      350991 356989 360986 368979 371975 374969 380957 385945
      390935 392928 397926 403923 407922 410924 416924 421919
      428914 432910 440909 442907 445909 450910 450918 452923
      456937 459943 460947 463949 467953 467962 467974 465977
      465981 467996 468001 470006 469012 468018 469026 469032
      472038 489054 493058 498062 502059 505055 508050 510043
      508028 506021 504015 496006 496001 498998 502993 506982
      509974 511970 515971 518973 522968 528958 532943 534937
      536928 536923 535916 535910 531875 533859 534840 534826
      534816
 0.25 530205 529199 525193 520189 517183 515179 510174 507172
      505176 506182 507185 510189 515194 517198 521205 523207
      526208 529207 530205
 0.25 514272 516262 516253 512239 510232 507226 501213 498208
      493203 489199 482201 473206 469208 462210 452214 441217
      437221 435231 432237 431239 426239 421239 419243 420245
      424247 427248 435250 440250 448252 462256 472260 478264
      484268 504286 507284 510280 514272
 0.25 527828 527820 527810 524792 522779 517766 513754 511749
      507745 493731 489730 484733 480736 477741 469762 465765
      462770 457780 454790 451797 450804 450832 449840 447845
      445850 445856 446860 451863 455865 460868 474882 476885
      478889 478894 476900 474906 470909 468914 464925 464930
      467936 473943 481949 486952 491952 496952 500950 506942
      512934 516921 519909 520893 521878 522860 527828
 0.25 418844 416834 411834 406835 402834 401830 401825 403820
      402815 398816 392822 381834 371847 362861 353875 344890
      337905 334914 333918 334924 336926 340925 345918 349911
      355904 358903 361900 371899 373900 373902 371906 368916
      366926 368930 372933 376932 378928 383920 387913 392906
      402892 405884 406877 405872 403869 408861 415854 417849
      418844
 0.25 368947 369945 368943 367945 368947 368947
 0.50 514266 514259 514251 511238 500217 497211 492207 488205
      483205 465212 447219 442221 444227 443233 439237 436242
      436245 438247 449249 462251 467253 473257 482263 487267
      491271 498280 501282 504283 508279 512272 514266
 0.50 522829 522822 521813 519800 516787 515781 512775 510773
      508772 505774 502777 500781 499794 498801 496807 493808
      489806 485796 482786 479781 475779 471780 468784 466788
      465795 464804 464809 463817 464823 462827 460832 461838
      468844 475848 482853 484857 484862 486872 487881 487889
      485901 482911 470925 470931 473934 479940 489942 496942
      498941 502938 507929 510921 511911 511903 512874 512861
      513854 515848 520839 522829
 0.50 491237 490232 489226 486223 483221 479221 474221 471223
      473227 477227 480229 482234 486236 488236 491237
 0.50 395830 395827 394823 391826 385834 372851 361867 351885
      340902 336912 336916 337918 341915 351897 356888 363879
      369871 375864 381855 386847 391839 395830
 1.00 511263 512255 511247 509240 506234 500223 496218 491214
      488210 483209 478211 472213 473218 479218 490221 492228
      493235 493239 491240 486238 482241 480234 476230 469232
      464232 459233 449236 447240 450242 456244 461245 469248
      478254 482259 487263 495272 498276 501279 504278 506274
      506268 506264 508263 511263
 1.00 464224 465221 465219 464218 463217 461217 460217 459218
      458219 457221 457222 458224 460226 461226 462226 463224
      464224
 1.50 510257 509248 507240 504236 501230 498224 496221 493222
      494230 495239 498244 501250 505254 510257
 1.50 503275 504267 502262 497251 490242 487241 483245 481243
      479236 475232 471236 469241 473245 477248 481252 487260
      494269 497273 502277 503275
 2.00 502273 502267 500263 498259 496254 494251 491246 488244
      486248 485251 487256 489260 492264 495268 498271 500273
      502273 502273
 2.00 506248 506245 505241 503239 501236 500233 499229 497226
      496224 495228 495231 496236 497238 499240 502243 503245
      504248 506248
 2.00 478241 478239 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 474235
      473237 474238 474239 475241 476242 478241 478241
 3.00 496262 496261 495259 495257 494256 493254 493253 492252
      491250 491249 490250 490252 491255 491257 491258 492260
      493261 494263 495265 496262

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 494611 500630 508649 513670 518679 521690 529714 536735
      538752 540768 543781 544795 545810 543818 538838 532859
      529865 525873 521884 518889 515892 503906 488915 486916
      486920 486928 489937 489945 491949 491955 493959 489960
      484960 482962 471953 469950 467946 464938 456919 455913
      454904 454887 459868 458863 457860 455859 450858 446860
      432862 433859 436854 441851 446845 450838 450830 449823
      442820 436812 436806 438802 445793 450784 453779 456776
      459773 460768 458764 453762 451762 448764 437775 431780
      426786 416799 412805 407811 395826 390833 386841 377861
      373869 371878 366894 358909 351923 344935 331962 320981
      311999 305011 302011 301002 300993 299983 298971 299961
      297956 295959 289966 282971 277970 275966 281957 285950
      290945 295937 299928 302921 304913 305909 305903 305892
      309884 309881 305882 300897 297900 293902 292897 290896
      287897 282899 277902 273902 269898 269893 271890 273880
      276877 277873 281869 285861 288855 290851 292848 299844
      306841 313837 319834 326829 333823 340818 346809 352801
      361787 369772 377759 388746 407722 420705 425698 431692
      437684 442676 448657 451652 452648 451644 447636 446631
      444629
 0.01 534217 535203 535190 533180 532174 530170 527166 522164
      517161 514159 508157 504154 498147 494140 492136 488134
      481128 477127 474125 472118 471111 472096 467087 463082
      462095 461102 456102 449096 445095 443098 441106 438110
      440113 445114 448118 449124 448128 445132 441138 437146
      436151 437155 440159 441164 443169 445172 445176 443181
      440185 438189 437194 438197 441196 443197 444201 445204
      448202 451200 455200 461196 467190 470186 472184 475185
      478187 483189 484194 484198 483200 478200 475203 469207
      462209 457208 454210 447214 442213 438215 430219 422222
      422226 421229 419230 411229 407231 405234 402239 402244
      404247 407250 409252 408253 405258 404261 408265 411268
      416267 423263 429259 434251 440248 444247 449247 453247
      457249 468254 473256 477259 485265 494280 499287 502290
      507291 511289 514285 517278 517273 521263 519252 516244
      515239 514234 511224 507216 505214 505210 506202 511204
      514207 519215 521214 523216 526218 528222 530221 534217
 0.01 518043 516025 513006 510988 507983 502980 499980 497982
      494987 490995 486000 485007 485012 486017 493029 502039
      505045 507052 509059 513059 515056 518043
 0.01 483232 483229 482229 480229 481231 481232 483232
 0.01 461124 461121 462119 460116 459116 457118 457120 457123
      458125 459125 461124
 0.01 268802 268799 266797 260796 254797 249800 246805 247813
      249818 252823 256820 258814 260808 264804 268802
 0.25 531205 528195 524184 522178 519172 511167 506164 501165
      496167 494169 495173 500183 502187 507191 514198 523204
      527207 529208 531206 531205
 0.25 537789 536781 535774 532760 524728 520716 516705 507672
      499650 496643 494635 491628 487625 482627 478631 473640
      469654 466659 464665 461675 457685 455691 453699 453706
      456706 459705 465698 469694 473692 475701 476710 476715
      478724 480729 481737 486748 491760 494767 496773 497781
      497790 495803 494812 495821 495831 496839 496844 495850
      494858 496865 499870 506871 510869 514865 520858 525849
      530836 534823 537808 537789
 0.25 515264 515256 514250 511238 501214 499211 496208 494208
      484207 479208 473211 465215 456217 452218 446218 435220
      426223 428227 432231 435235 440231 444228 449227 454225
      460227 465227 468225 472223 476222 489227 493238 493241
      490238 481236 477231 471231 465231 461230 452234 444236
      438236 432236 420235 416235 412238 411244 415247 421249
      428248 436243 445243 454240 460242 465244 477250 484256
      490265 496276 500281 503283 506282 508278 508271 508266
      510265 514266 515264
 0.25 488167 488162 487158 485156 481154 474151 471149 468145
      466143 461142 456140 454145 454152 454157 456161 461163
      467166 474166 481168 484169 488167 488167
 0.25 461181 462178 462176 462173 461173 460172 458172 456172
      455173 453174 453176 453179 454180 454181 455183 457183
      459182 460182 461181
 0.25 444749 441744 437746 430754 412774 399790 382808 375816
      367823 365825 363824 361822 356823 353828 350833 346844
      343855 341862 338869 333880 330892 326903 324911 324919
      322934 319947 320952 319958 321959 329948 336936 341927
      346917 353906 359894 362882 365870 367862 369856 375844
      380835 387827 396817 403808 410800 416790 420785 424780
      431770 439762 442755 444749
 0.25 381777 381775 379776 374780 371784 367789 365796 363802
      365805 370802 373797 375792 378785 380780 381777
 0.25 299872 301870 300867 299865 299863 299861 297860 295861
      294862 295864 296866 295868 296870 297872 297873 299872
      299872
 0.25 298880 298878 296876 294877 292877 290878 289879 289881
      290883 291883 292883 294883 296882 298880
 0.50 533808 532800 531789 530776 528767 524751 518732 512720
      506701 503694 501686 501680 498678 491679 487683 486687
      487692 489704 492711 499722 503728 506738 507759 508768
      508775 507781 506798 507823 507831 505839 506846 509848
      514844 522835 526828 529822 532814 533808
 0.50 510257 510250 509243 504231 500220 498214 494213 488211
      483210 477211 473214 469216 467220 478219 487223 491225
      493232 498242 500247 500253 497252 491245 488242 485242
      483243 482242 479236 477234 474234 470236 470240 471242
      475245 480248 485252 488257 493266 497272 502275 503270
      502264 502259 503257 510257 510257
 0.50 516185 516182 515180 514179 513178 511177 510175 508175
      507177 508180 508183 509184 510186 511186 512187 514187
      516185 516185
 0.50 429243 429240 428239 426239 425238 423238 421237 419237
      417237 416238 415239 415241 415243 416245 418246 420246
      421246 423246 424246 425245 427244 429243
 0.50 439758 439755 438754 437754 435755 434756 433757 433759
      434761 436761 437760 439758 439758
 0.50 391812 389811 384814 372824 366834 363839 357844 356846
      355843 352846 348854 346861 341872 338879 336887 335896
      335900 332915 330922 329931 330936 333937 336932 342921
      345915 349908 352903 355897 358881 361867 365850 380828
      386820 391812
 1.00 500235 500234 499232 498231 497229 497228 497229 498232
      498233 499235 500235
 1.00 495259 494258 494256 493255 493253 492251 491250 491249
      489249 489250 489252 490253 491255 491256 493257 494259
      494260 495259
 1.00 488218 487217 486215 485214 484214 482214 482216 483217
      485218 487218 488218
 1.00 478241 477238 475239 475240 476241 478241

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 522267 522258 521248 519240 517233 511219 504205 502203
      502198 506193 507190 511190 516194 525205 528202 528196
      526188 524180 523176 521173 516172 513172 511170 505169
      503167 502163 499154 499149 498146 497143 493142 486141
      480137 477137 477140 480145 483148 484151 482153 474151
      469152 466160 465171 456181 456187 455192 451190 442203
      441207 441211 438216 433219 427220 424222 423225 421230
      418232 413236 407236 400237 397238 396242 394246 392248
      387251 382254 377258 373266 370275 367281 365284 367286
      373290 379290 385290 392293 396295 399294 406294 428287
      435289 442286 446284 453282 455281 459281 466283 474286
      479290 490300 493301 496300 500300 502299 510289 515285
      518277
 0.01 490879 489861 488855 485849 482845 480840 475827 474825
      471825 465826 461823 458822 454826 449825 441820 436818
      432819 427822 424827 424832 428836 434845 437850 431852
      424852 424858 427861 431864 436864 442866 446869 450870
      455869 457869 459871 459889 459898 459903 458908 453915
      450920 448925 446931 445937 445945 447952 446957 442961
      439965 439973 440976 443978 446981 455988 457992 460998
      461005 463011 465009 467003 467994 468988 469986 471981
      474975 479967 483962 484957 483950 482945 481942 479937
      476934 476928 477922 477904 478897 477890 475882 478880
      481882 487882 490879
 0.01 463648 462641 458641 449647 442655 435660 411695 405701
      396707 373713 369715 363717 359718 356721 340737 317766
      306782 301792 300796 299802 298807 295810 288817 283825
      278834 277838 276843 276849 276855 278861 279863 282863
      284862 285863 284870 284882 282892 280904 281915 282921
      282929 283932 281935 276937 275942 275949 279960 283968
      288975 292978 297980 303980 305979 305977 301965 296956
      294953 293947 292935 291929 290922 290916 291908 297897
      300888 302874 307864 310860 313858 339832 345825 351817
      357810 364800 375785 381778 386770 392762 397754 402745
      410736 416729 422722 433706 444689 447684 450679 455668
      460658 463648
 0.01 472937 470935 468930 465925 463925 461927 459930 457937
      458945 459949 461956 463956 465954 467949 469944 471940
      472937
 0.01 451107 449106 448104 444103 441103 439105 440110 440113
      443115 445116 447114 449112 449109 451107
 0.01 436780 436773 435768 432763 430759 427755 424756 423761
      424766 427769 430772 433775 435780 436780
 0.01 433952 433942 433938 431935 430933 424937 422942 421945
      421949 421959 422966 424973 428975 428968 430966 430961
      431959 432954 433952
 0.01 426791 426785 424782 419785 416787 412788 409794 411800
      413806 412812 413819 415821 416818 419809 420801 422797
      425794 426791
 0.01 417949 418943 416938 413929 410919 409913 408905 407901
      406895 406889 404885 401881 397879 395876 390876 385877
      381879 376885 367902 364909 359916 353925 348930 344932
      341936 339940 339944 336954 332962 323977 321986 323988
      326986 337973 347958 366927 371921 378916 384909 392907
      397908 396912 399921 408938 413946 416950 417949
 0.01 338791 337788 335787 331790 325795 321797 316798 311801
      307803 306812 305817 305822 308820 314819 317821 323819
      328813 332804 335795 338791
 0.01 249806 248804 247804 245808 244811 243813 242816 241819
      243822 245821 246818 247815 248812 248808 249806
 0.25 517270 518263 518256 515246 506226 502219 496212 489203
      482197 468205 461209 455214 447217 440222 434230 427234
      419237 413243 405248 399253 387264 381271 378275 377277
      379279 398280 407281 417280 430272 445265 452262 457263
      462266 470270 480272 484273 488277 496283 502286 507285
      510281 517270
 0.25 495244 495242 495241 494239 493238 493235 491232 490234
      490237 491238 492240 493242 495244 495244
 0.25 481234 482232 481231 481234 481234
 0.25 389737 385738 382741 375749 369757 363765 359774 357780
      357784 359785 364786 369784 375776 381766 386757 388752
      388746 389737
 0.50 515267 516262 515255 511246 506237 500228 498225 495225
      495228 495234 496239 498245 497247 490241 486241 483244
      480240 479235 476230 472228 470224 472219 475215 475211
      472211 465214 450221 447223 445228 438233 432237 422240
      416244 414248 410251 406252 404254 397262 393265 393267
      391272 394273 403273 413272 429267 444260 450256 457253
      466252 471252 476255 482262 488269 495276 499279 505279
      508277 511273 515267
 1.00 503273 502267 500263 498258 497254 494250 491247 489246
      488249 489255 491258 494263 496268 499271 502273 503273
 1.00 454243 453240 449238 442239 436241 429243 425247 420252
      421256 425257 432258 438255 444252 449248 454243

$$





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