Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 20/0000 UTC THRU FEB 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...SRN PLAINS...

RAIN/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THOUGH PARTS OF CNTL/ERN TX
NWD INTO OK TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SW UPR TROF
INTERCEPTING DEEPENING RETURN FLOW FROM FROM THE WRN GULF THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE N/S UPR TROF AXIS EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
THIS PD WITH THESE DIFFERENCES INVOLVING HOW QUICKLY THE TROF
SPLITS AS IT MOVES ACRS THE PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN REASONABLY GOOD WITH GFS WHICH MAINTAINS A SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING TROF AS IT MOVES
ACRS TX.  THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SHOWN MORE VARIABILITY WITH
THE 00Z EC MAINTAINING A MORE PHASED TROF LONGER WHICH ALLOWS FOR
SOMEWHAT FASTER PCPN PROGRESSION ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  MODEL
WISE...THE EC WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT DUE TO ITS INCONSISTENCY AND
LACK OF STRONG MULTIMODEL SUPPORT.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
STORMS..SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF PAC
COLD FRONT SUN AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACRS NRN TX INTO
OK/ERN KS AS NRN PORTION OF CNTL ROCKIES UPR TROF PUSHES EWD ACRS
REGION OF INCREASING MLCAPES AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.  THE
DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING CNVTV BANDS TO
DVLP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH GENL EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE DVLPG BAND IS EXPECTED.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS SRN TX SUN NIGHT/MON WITHIN AN
INCREASING FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION DVLPG ACRS S TX/TX
COASTAL AREA  ALONG WITH DEEPER MSTR PROFILES AND HIER CAPE
VALUES.  MOST OF THE 12Z HI RES GUIDANCE HAS HEAVIER RAINS OF 2"
OR MORE IN A N/S AXIS ALONG THE CNTL TX COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MON BEFORE WEAKENING ACTIVITY TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MON EVENING AS SRN PORTION OF UPR TROF UNDERGOES
TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW.  MANUAL QPF TRENDED TOWARD RECENT HI
RES CONSENSUS..BUT MAINTAINED SOME CONTINUITY GIVEN THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE 00Z EC WHICH CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

...UPR MS VALLEY...

NRN PORTION OF ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
TAKING OF A SLIGHT NEG TILTED ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES ACRS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON MON.   THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF MDT RAIN/SHOWERS AS
ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION.  MSTR IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK
MOVING SO THAT IN SPITE OF SOME WEAK POTNL INSTABILITY DVLPG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON MON...MOST AREAL AVG AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE .25
TO .75" RANGE.

...N-CENTRAL CA INTO THE PAC NW...

A STORM SYSTEM N OF HAWAII WILL TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW WITH
TRIPLE POINT LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE OREGON COAST BY MON
MRNG.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME
WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE CA COAST INVOF SFO BAY REGION WITH
INITIAL WARM FRONTAL BNDRY AS 85H WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS
WITH PWS NEAR 1.25 INCHES FOCUS INTO THE AREA MON MRNG.  AS THE
INITIAL LOW MOVES INLAND ACRS THE PAC NW MON MRNG...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP INVOF THE SFO
BAY REGION IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DVLPG LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NRN CA COAST
BY LATE MON AFTN.  THE PROLONGED AND FOCUSED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
PLUME IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM THE SFO BAY
REGION EWD THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE SIERRA RANGE
WITH DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE SW FACING MTN RANGE.  WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING...STGR DYNAMIC FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MSTR PROFILES WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORT FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS SUGGESTED BY A CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE HERE.  THE MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE SMALL N/S
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL SET UP ACRS THE BAY
REGION.  RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT YIELDED A CLEAR PREFERENCE
AND THUS HAVE TAKEN MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND APCH WITH REGARD TO
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS THROUGH THE BAY REGION.  THESE HEAVY
RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING RUNOFF ISSUES ACRS A RATHER
BROAD AREA CNTL/NRN CA GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS WITH THE
BIGGER IMPACT COMING DURING THE DAY ON MON.   FOR DETAILS ON
WINTER WEATHER...SEE QPFHSD.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 566983 566966 566959 565955 564940 563930 561907 559895
      559889 557886 549873 543868 540866 534866 530866 527865
      521865 516865 514864 505864 496864 489863 472864 463865
      457864 449864 443867 435869 429874 417882 405891 392901
      385905 379909 373912 364914 358915 347916 331916 323915
      314915 298911 282908 278908 275906 268902 264899 260898
      256903 249915 237940 235943 235947 236955 236975 240982
      240992 240997 242000 247004 258005 265004 279999 284998
      288999 289003 287006 285012 287016 287021 290025 294021
      298014 302011 307011 311009 314006 319001 325997 331994
      335992 340992 347994 355996 364997 371997 377994 383990
      390986 401979 409976 420974 432978 436980 438983 443990
      443997 444002 444008 442012 433023 422031 417036 415038
      414044 413047 410051 408052 403053 393055 390056 387059
      383058 381056 378050 368048 361050 344052 339056 346057
      344064 345066 350066 354067 355071 353078 351080 346081
      345081 348085 353091 357094 362095 371096 379099 383097
      389092 396088 402086 408082 413076 418072 424067 428063
      432057 436050 438047 442047 448051 449051 451055 450061
      456056 463052 473046 477044 480040 488040 505042 507040
      511040 517036 522031 523028 524025 517013 518007 522008
      529013 534013 536012 545012 553010 556010 559007 562995
      566983
 0.01 345275 358279 363278 366278 368281 375288 382294 386297
      392298 401299 414299 419289 422287 425288 430290 434294
      438292 442292 448294 454288 481256 486259 489263 492267
      497267 507267 514265 517265 517263 517256 516243 514237
      511232 505221 502216 500211 502206 506202 509199 513205
      517214 527217 531208 532202 530194 529187 528180 525174
      522170 516162 509154 502148 496141 493130 489116 486116
      482117 479117 475119 472117 473111 475104 475100 470097
      464102 451092 447089 441088 431090 427087 425089 424096
      421100 419105 415109 413110 411108 409103 408098 406101
      403107 398112 392114 388116 385120 382124 383126 390120
      394120 395124 396127 399132 399137 400143 400146 398147
      388141 384138 378137 374137 371143 374153 380162 382166
      381171 380174 378177 372176 366175 361176 353180 350184
      348184 346181 342171 339168 340172 342175 339177 336180
      333182 331186 335196 337200 335205 335218 336223 339228
      342233 342239 330263
 0.01 463693 459687 457688 456692 455701 450707 442709 440712
      439716 438719 440723 438727 434727 429730 434730 441733
      440738 439741 434748 435751 437753 439755 442755 446747
      447739 447733 450729 452723 455715 462701 463693
 0.01 469041 467039 465038 464038 462038 460038 459038 457037
      455037 454039 455041 457042 458042 460042 462042 463042
      465042 467042 469041
 0.01 381065 382063 382060 381058 380058 379056 378055 377054
      375054 374055 374056 372056 370056 368056 367057 368059
      370059 372060 373061 374062 375063 377064 378066 380066
      381065
 0.01 366121 362121 358118 352116 348112 345103 341099 338093
      336095 336101 334103 333101 332099 331096 331092 335084
      332079 327078 322079 318081 314083 310087 305095 302100
      296100 296104 300107 309111 320112 325109 329112 336113
      340112 342113 342117 341122 340128 342131 346127 348123
      351121 354122 360123 364123 366121
 0.01 332169 332168 330166 328166 327165 328166 330168 332169
      332169
 0.01 334058 332057 330057 328057 327057 326057 326059 328060
      328059 330058 332058 334058 334058
 0.25 528955 529948 529941 528930 526920 524916 521913 518906
      514900 509895 503891 490889 476885 461882 454880 446882
      439885 434889 427904 419915 414919 410926 409934 414938
      421942 428944 437943 445944 457950 464953 469957 474962
      481964 496967 512969 518967 522965 526959 528955
 0.25 501241 500232 498224 493211 488207 484206 472198 468202
      463205 458208 454211 429218 422215 423212 426210 423205
      418201 415196 417189 420181 419171 420165 422162 424160
      421157 417153 412154 409161 407169 396177 392179 392183
      391188 384188 379185 374182 367179 360180 357181 354184
      356191 357194 359196 357198 350197 347193 344193 342197
      342206 346221 352248 351259 350264 353265 356264 360265
      366269 373271 378270 389266 396266 401265 407264 415263
      420261 426260 437265 445265 449264 454260 460255 468243
      473240 477236 476227 481226 487225 491225 492230 496239
      499241 501241
 0.25 495171 494169 494168 493167 491166 489165 488164 486164
      485164 483165 482166 482168 484171 485174 486174 487175
      488175 490175 492174 493173 494173 495171
 0.25 467179 465174 460170 457168 455166 454159 448148 446142
      442137 436134 432137 427141 428149 430156 430159 433160
      443169 446173 447175 448180 448184 449185 455185 465181
      467179
 0.25 465157 466154 466152 466149 466147 465144 463143 462143
      461144 460146 460148 460150 460153 460155 460156 461158
      461159 463159 464159 465157 465157
 0.25 449114 449109 447105 443099 437098 434097 431094 427094
      429098 430104 425110 424113 424117 425121 428124 434119
      437118 441119 445118 448116 449114
 0.25 427228 426226 425226 423226 421226 419225 418228 419228
      421229 422229 423228 424228 426228 427228
 0.25 421219 422217 421215 420216 419217 419218 419219 420220
      421219
 0.25 402074 401073 400071 399071 398069 397069 396067 395066
      394066 393066 394068 395069 394069 392070 391069 390070
      390072 391073 392074 393075 394075 395076 397077 399077
      400076 401075 402074
 0.25 404919 402915 398915 394917 391920 388922 384925 382927
      381930 382933 387931 391929 394927 398925 401923 404919
 0.25 386949 384946 381944 378944 378941 379938 377934 374932
      364935 354936 349936 346934 341927 332929 321929 312929
      302927 294925 285924 277926 267928 261931 254937 249942
      245950 243958 243963 244967 248974 255977 258980 255984
      253988 256991 266992 284991 293990 303990 312994 315995
      319994 326990 334987 343985 353985 362985 368980 374973
      378965 386949
 0.50 489218 489216 489214 487213 486212 484212 482211 481211
      480211 479211 477212 478215 478216 480217 482217 483218
      485219 486220 488219 489218
 0.50 507944 507942 507939 505937 504936 502936 502937 501939
      499941 498942 498944 498947 499947 501948 502948 504948
      505947 505946 507944
 0.50 503921 502916 501914 497909 493906 487904 482903 479904
      479907 475914 475920 481924 486926 491928 497928 502924
      503921
 0.50 472213 468210 463211 456214 449218 445223 446228 444234
      441237 433240 416229 416224 417219 416213 413211 410206
      408201 406197 403194 397193 393193 383191 375185 370182
      365180 360181 357184 358188 361192 366200 364203 359205
      350201 345200 345204 349214 352224 355234 356239 356244
      357250 360253 367260 372262 376261 383256 390252 395251
      401252 417249 437249 443250 447250 455248 461240 462235
      461231 464226 469219 472213
 0.50 453174 453171 452169 450169 449170 449172 450173 451175
      453175 453174
 0.50 449158 446153 445150 442144 441141 438137 434140 433145
      433150 435155 439158 442160 446159 449158
 0.50 456896 457891 456888 454886 451886 448887 446888 443889
      442892 443896 443898 443900 444904 446905 450904 452903
      454901 455898 456896
 0.50 445111 445108 444107 443106 442105 441104 439104 438105
      437105 435107 434109 435110 437110 438110 440111 442112
      443112 445111
 0.50 373963 375956 372952 366948 360943 355942 350943 341944
      336944 334942 330940 325940 321939 317935 310932 302930
      297929 293929 285930 276933 269935 260939 254943 251945
      249949 249955 250959 252963 252967 252970 255972 264976
      266978 265980 259985 259989 264990 283987 299982 306979
      308973 308968 312966 315966 320966 326967 316980 317986
      319988 327986 335983 343982 354980 361977 373963
 1.00 440154 440151 438150 437151 437153 438154 439154 440154
 1.00 424241 423237 420235 416234 413232 413229 415222 416217
      414215 410213 403204 383191 374186 368183 361184 362188
      363190 367193 370197 373202 373207 372210 368212 365214
      359210 354209 355214 357221 359226 361231 361238 363243
      367247 373250 378248 386241 391240 398242 402245 407244
      415243 421243 424241
 1.00 362965 355964 349965 343966 337968 332971 328974 325980
      328981 332980 337979 343977 348976 354974 358969 362965
 1.00 332956 326952 316951 306950 302947 305944 307941 305937
      301935 297934 289936 280939 272954 274958 270960 266962
      265965 265968 268971 272972 275974 275976 273980 275984
      277985 288983 295980 296971 301966 310963 319962 328960
      332956
 1.50 420238 419237 418236 416236 414236 413236 414238 415239
      417239 419238 420238
 1.50 413224 414220 414217 409215 403207 395200 389197 385194
      376189 371186 366184 363187 367191 373198 376203 377207
      375212 371213 357216 362224 365235 368240 373242 381236
      385235 390234 395235 399239 403240 407239 407236 404234
      405231 410229 413224
 1.50 393223 393222 393221 393218 393216 392215 391215 389215
      388215 387217 387219 388220 389222 390222 391223 393223
      393223
 1.50 352969 350968 346968 343969 341970 337971 335972 334975
      334976 337976 339975 343974 344973 348973 351971 352969
 1.50 326958 325958 323957 322958 323959 325958 326958
 1.50 319958 317955 315953 308952 301949 294949 288950 282954
      274962 271964 272968 277970 281972 283974 285976 283977
      278981 286981 292979 291977 288975 285974 288972 293968
      298965 305963 317959 319958
 2.00 413219 406214 400206 393200 388197 385194 376189 371187
      366187 372194 378203 379209 378213 370215 367219 364217
      360214 360217 365225 366230 369235 373237 376234 380232
      384232 388231 388226 386221 386214 391213 396216 402218
      406221 407225 409227 410226 413219
 2.00 310958 306954 303952 297951 290951 286954 282958 278962
      277966 281968 285968 292966 297964 301962 307960 310958
 3.00 401214 399208 394202 389199 384196 379193 375191 375195
      377197 381202 384207 389210 394213 398215 401214
 3.00 386228 385225 383223 381222 379222 377219 376218 372217
      370218 369221 369226 370229 374227 376226 378225 379228
      383229 386228
 4.00 398210 396208 394205 392204 389202 387201 384198 382197
      380197 382200 384201 386203 388205 390206 393208 395210
      398210
 4.00 374223 374220 373220 372219 370220 370222 371224 371225
      372224 373224 374223

$$




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