Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150951
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
550 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 15/1200 UTC THRU APR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPDATE...SOME SGFNT CHANGES WERE MADE OVR THE SRN MID ATLC REGION
AND THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PD TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  THE 06Z RUN OF THE GEM REGIONAL AND 00Z ECMWF
SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE MOST OF WHICH ARE DICTATED BY WEAK WVS ON
THE FRONTAL BAND AND CNVCTN INVOF NRN FL.


...EASTERN U.S....

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASOCTD WITH THE
ADVANCING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROF AND SHOULD SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD
HVY RNFL EVENT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.  INCRSG JET DYNAMICS AND STG
HGT FALLS WILL BE AVBL TO TAP AMPLE MSTR EMBEDDED ALONG A STRONG
N/S BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EWD...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ACROSS THE REGION INDUCING WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RNFL
TOTALS.  MSTR AVBLTY SHOULD BE NO ISSUE AS DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW
RESULTS IN A STG NWD MSTR FLUX TO SUPPORT THE EVENT.  MODEL QPFS
SIMILAR THOUGH THE GFS ON THE WHOLE IS FASTER THAN THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE WITH WORKING THE PCPN EWD PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLC STATES/SRN MID ATLC REGION.  STAYED
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET/12Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL SOLUTIONS ON THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN EVENT.  THE UKMET DID A VRY GOOD JOB YDA
HANDLING THE HVY CNVCTV RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THIS MODEL
AGAIN FAVORS A PD OF HVY RAINS THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN ACROSS NRN FL
EARLY IN THE PD.  STAYED WITH ITS SCENARIO FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS
SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL LLVL CNVGNC FIELDS AS WELL AS AN AXIS
OF HI PWS SEEN IMPINGING ON THE AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

VERY PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW WILL BRING ONE SHRTWV FM PAC NW TO THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE PD ACCOMPANIED WITH GNLY LGT PCPN
TOTALS..WITH E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES SEEING TOTALS ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW.  WAA PATTERN SETS OVR THE PAC NW DURING THE 2ND HALF
OF THE PD AS STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS..A WEAK IMPULSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE TO INCREASE SHWR ACTVTY.


DAY 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CASCADES INTO THE
BITTERROOTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z ECMWF
WITH ITS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AND THE 00Z
GFS WITH ITS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADEQUATELY
REPRESENT THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION PREFERRED UNTIL THE SPREAD
NARROWS AND/OR OTHER SOLUTIONS WHICH PRESENTLY LIE NEAR THE
CONSENSUS BEGIN TO SHIFT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.  THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BEHIND THE TROUGH`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FAVOR BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CASCADES INTO THE BITTERROOTS.

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
MOVES INLAND IN 2 PORTIONS...WITH ONE PORTION CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INDUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATER TODAY...WHILE A SECOND PORTION CROSSES THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INDUCES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO
COMPENSATE FOR THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN A BROADER AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
FORMED THROUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  SMALL CLUSTERS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MAY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS...PARTICULARLY AHEAD AND
IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE GEFS MEAN/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH SOME AMPLITUDE AND SPATIAL ENHANCEMENTS
FROM THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF TO BALANCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH A NEED
FOR SPECIFICS.

...EASTERN GULF COAST...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ABOVE A MOIST RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP TO FORCE A BROAD REGIME OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THAT SHOULD RELEASE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER
THE GULF AS WELL AS INCREASE THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS PARTICULARLY HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT WITH THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN REPRESENTING THE FAST
HALF OF THE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET REPRESENTING THE SLOW
HALF OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER TOTALS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA THAN FORECAST IF
SOME OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.  DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE MESOSCALE...HAVE USED AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION THAT REPRESENTS A MIX OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS UNTIL THE SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO REDUCE.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 540205 540194 543187 544177 541169 529143 524131 520126
      517120 514116 508112 499110 493104 489098 486092 483085
      478078 471066 467062 465055 456024 454017 455010 460003
      463999 470998 473000 474004 481018 489030 497039 503049
      507048 509042 509029 509024 508021 505014 501006 497998
      494990 490984 488974 486966 484959 479946 466917 462913
      458910 446906 443906 441909 440914 439918 439929 440942
      443957 443963 442968 441971 438973 435977 431980 428989
      427998 425006 424018 424039 435047 437056 437061 435064
      432069 431071 432076 432080 429083 425080 423079 422082
      420086 421090 426102 423102 422105 421108 423110 428114
      428123 433120 438116 440118 441122 440130 440135 443137
      445137 451147 453149 457151 458153 458157 461159 465164
      467172 470173 472171 476170 479172 483178 484181 488183
      491184 493188 491193 491198 485203 472205 464210 460210
      458212 453216 443220 443223 445226 453228 454232 451233
      447236 445240 444245 451248 456250 459253 462258 465257
      468259 472263 480273 484279 488286 494290 496290 500292
      505295 509292 511285 513274 513270 516272 518268 519263
      517259 514252 512243 512235 512231 510228 508227 506224
      500209 502203 503199 505196 507198 510204 515208 518216
      523221 533230
 0.01 524701 523691 521685 516672 511666 509658 506653 502645
      495641 487639 478634 474631 470630 465629 458631 453633
      449636 445638 442641 407664 398670 387676 372686 355697
      340711 325725 319733 315741 313750 311755 307757 288766
      277771 268777 262783 256789 253793 248796 244799 241803
      238809 236813 235818 238821 240826 243831 247835 254839
      262842 280845 278857 275867 274880 278884 283883 287882
      292881 300876 314868 324862 330862 335863 340865 346865
      351864 357860 371850 385840 395835 405830 414825 425820
      446817 464809 480797 488791 493787 495782 500775 505766
      510755 512746 517734 519729 520723 523711 524701
 0.01 413120 413115 412115 408114 407110 409105 407102 406105
      402108 397103 395105 396108 394112 396115 399116 401118
      404123 408121 413120
 0.01 415071 413067 416064 413060 409058 405055 399055 393061
      389063 384063 383064 387068 385072 388077 389082 393084
      397089 399087 402082 405079 409076 413074 415071
 0.25 525177 525170 524166 521159 517153 512147 507142 500138
      494133 490129 483124 477121 472123 471127 472133 474136
      477139 483142 488147 494151 501155 504157 507160 511167
      516172 525177
 0.25 502275 502269 502262 500260 495258 491254 490247 487243
      484240 476231 472233 469236 464238 466243 475250 485255
      490265 493269 497273 500275 502275
 0.25 504715 504706 503699 500686 496678 492670 487663 483659
      477651 472645 468643 464643 455645 448648 441653 428663
      416674 399685 387694 372705 361715 338738 332744 328750
      324757 319763 313770 306776 302782 303793 289803 284807
      277811 273813 271816 268819 268825 274829 280832 289832
      291836 292840 291848 292856 293860 297862 302861 310856
      321848 335838 341834 344832 349831 354830 358828 366824
      370824 372826 373834 379830 384825 396812 403806 411802
      418799 425794 438784 451776 459773 468767 478757 490745
      496738 499731 503722 504715
 0.25 496226 496221 494218 493213 489211 483208 477210 471213
      465216 461220 461224 465224 471222 473221 478221 482223
      485223 489222 491224 496226
 0.25 474114 476109 475104 475101 474098 472094 471091 468093
      466095 465099 463102 462104 462109 463112 466113 467115
      471116 472115 474114
 0.25 407787 406786 405786 403786 401787 400788 398791 397793
      398795 400794 402793 403792 405790 407788 407787
 0.25 267798 266797 265796 264796 263796 262798 262799 263799
      264799 266798 267798
 0.50 492705 492698 491692 487681 479670 475662 473657 471654
      465650 460651 451654 444659 434667 423677 410687 385703
      379708 373712 365724 359729 352735 342743 338748 334754
      327768 324775 322784 323790 325792 326797 322799 315801
      309806 304811 297815 288817 286820 287823 292827 293829
      294835 294844 294851 298852 302850 307844 310841 314841
      319843 322842 325840 335833 342827 347822 356810 367802
      380794 390785 396781 404778 411777 418778 425776 432773
      441764 448759 455754 466747 471742 476735 484722 489714
      492705
 0.50 494145 493142 492139 491137 487134 486133 483131 481130
      479130 480132 482135 484137 485139 487141 489144 491147
      494145
 0.50 480244 480242 480241 478239 478238 477237 475236 474236
      474237 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244 477246 478246
      479245 480244
 0.50 483217 483214 482213 481212 479212 478213 477213 475214
      474214 473215 472215 471216 471217 473217 475217 476217
      477217 478217 480217 482218 483217
 0.50 328809 327807 326809 326810 326811 328810 328809
 1.00 474705 472701 470692 469684 470678 468669 465664 462661
      458662 448667 440673 425687 416694 407700 389711 385715
      382720 374725 368733 360739 351746 345753 342758 341763
      341771 343774 346780 348782 348786 343794 341799 340807
      340811 337817 339819 344816 349809 356802 365796 373790
      382785 389778 393775 398773 419765 427759 435752 443745
      449738 458730 465725 469720 471714 473707 474705
 1.00 318823 319819 318815 315813 312815 308820 303821 298824
      298832 297840 298846 301845 303842 306837 309833 313828
      317826 318823
 1.50 450691 451687 449686 446688 440694 433699 433694 424697
      418701 403709 396715 392722 387728 381734 377742 373747
      358755 355757 352762 352764 355767 359769 361769 362772
      359779 355787 350793 348796 349800 355797 362792 367786
      372781 376778 381778 394768 408761 423753 429748 434741
      440735 444728 448725 449721 445716 444708 445701 450691
 1.50 403748 402748 401747 399746 399745 398747 398749 397749
      396750 395752 394753 394754 393757 393758 392759 393761
      395761 397759 398758 399756 400755 400753 400751 401750
      403748 403748
 2.00 423713 420711 416711 412713 409716 406719 404725 406729
      406732 410733 415732 418729 419726 421721 423715 423713
 2.00 382766 381764 379764 378765 376766 374767 373768 371770
      371771 370772 371773 373773 375772 375771 376770 378769
      379769 380768 381766 382766

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 531176 530169 530159 531153 529150 525146 517138 514135
      512128 510122 507116 505109 502102 497092 494087 492081
      489076 486078 476086 466081 460072 455061 452044 451039
      449033 447029 440027 437023 433027 430027 428030 424034
      422036 423038 426042 429048 430054 432069 432074 430078
      427083 425084 424088 426092 432102 436106 440109 443117
      444123 446137 447144 446152 446160 447168 444176 441183
      443192 449193 453196 468176 477173 482174 488177 493179
      498183 503188 506193 511197 514200 517198 520194 527183
      531176
 0.01 518273 520262 519252 516238 513231 510225 502215 498210
      491207 485206 480206 468210 463212 458214 447217 441218
      438218 436220 435223 437226 438229 439234 435239 434242
      436243 444245 450246 456247 458249 459254 459263 460271
      465282 475293 484299 492303 498303 501301 505296 513284
      518273
 0.01 485889 486875 485860 480842 476835 468832 461834 456839
      450844 444851 436863 438871 441874 443879 442888 441892
      437894 434896 432899 431903 430910 431916 429920 425926
      421933 421946 424951 426954 429957 438957 443957 443961
      440969 438976 438983 439986 442988 447988 452984 455979
      464963 471949 475940 477930 478920 480912 485889
 0.01 419166 420157 421147 421143 420142 415144 409145 405146
      404156 407156 410154 412155 413162 415167 419166
 0.01 414115 414111 411108 410098 408098 405100 404104 401106
      396110 389112 382115 379117 378121 382123 386124 392120
      399118 408119 413116 414115
 0.01 412073 412065 409061 405053 402042 396036 390027 384021
      381017 377014 374012 369012 359016 354020 351025 350031
      351042 354052 357056 361057 370057 375059 376061 375063
      371066 372071 374073 376076 375080 379083 384084 393082
      402079 410075 412073
 0.01 263798 259798 255800 251802 248804 245808 244813 245815
      248819 248816 250812 252809 255806 259803 261801 263798
 0.25 505271 506248 507236 505229 501221 495216 488212 482211
      474212 468214 462216 459217 458222 464223 467225 468229
      467236 469244 476258 480265 486270 494272 499270 505271
 0.25 519154 516148 511144 507141 503137 499134 494133 494140
      495148 499152 505155 510158 514160 518156 519154
 0.25 485225 484222 483221 481221 479220 478220 478221 476222
      475224 475226 477227 478227 480228 480229 482227 483227
      484226 485225
 0.25 480130 479127 476124 472122 475109 474101 471096 469089
      464090 460091 457090 452087 449086 446088 442091 441094
      442097 445101 450105 456106 461111 464116 467121 469128
      469131 473131 474129 478131 480130
 0.25 473161 474151 470143 465143 463144 461148 460153 458165
      453170 451173 451177 453180 457181 460178 461174 461171
      463168 468164 473161
 0.25 480882 480873 479864 476855 473851 468851 463856 460862
      459869 457879 453890 451894 448898 445902 443909 443921
      444926 447930 455933 457937 456941 455947 452959 453962
      455961 459957 463949 468939 469934 470927 471921 472914
      475904 478892 480882
 0.25 455221 454219 452219 451220 450220 448221 447221 445221
      444223 444225 446225 448225 449224 450224 451223 453223
      455221
 0.25 451080 451078 451075 450073 450072 449070 448070 447068
      446068 445067 443066 442067 441067 440069 440072 441074
      441075 442077 443077 444079 445080 446080 447081 449081
      451080
 0.25 444041 444038 444036 443035 442034 440036 439038 439040
      440041 441043 443042 444041
 0.25 397057 398052 397048 394043 389041 383039 376038 369039
      367043 368050 374053 379055 384058 389061 395059 397057
 0.50 492256 493253 492251 492250 491249 489248 488247 486247
      485248 486249 486251 487252 488254 488255 490256 491256
      492256
 0.50 475882 476873 474865 472863 469866 465878 460888 458893
      455898 451901 449906 449910 450913 453918 457921 461920
      467912 472900 474887 475882
 0.50 394052 394048 392046 389045 387045 383045 381045 378046
      377049 379051 381052 384054 386055 390056 393055 394052


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 536180 536174 535167 534155 533144 530133 530125 528118
      528105 523083 520075 515066 510059 505054 497049 496043
      497038 497031 496027 493023 490019 487015 484014 478007
      474998 471989 469982 467978 463976 459976 453982 450991
      452999 456008 461016 466021 469026 471031 467041 467047
      468052 471058 473061 480102 478117 475121 472118 467117
      463117 460121 457125 451130 444135 440143 436153 436157
      437160 439163 440169 438173 435174 431176 429173 428163
      427158 422156 418156 415160 413165 414168 416172 416177
      417182 416188 412198 418205 422209 425211 427212 427216
      425218 418225 414232 412236 412240 416249 424254 427257
      432258 437258 441259 449258 455266 460271 463274 467277
      472280 477282 486283 490284 494283 500280 506274 511265
      515258 516251 516246 520233 524220 529213 531209 531205
      529197 530193 531190 536180
 0.01 496858 495842 494834 492828 488820 485816 481814 478812
      473812 467813 461816 459816 458813 460808 462803 462795
      459790 457792 451799 446807 442817 433840 425857 418879
      409896 398912 394915 388917 382918 378919 373920 369922
      360926 353930 346935 338944 335955 334963 335969 339972
      348974 358971 360970 362972 360976 358988 361998 367008
      369012 370017 371024 371028 370032 367036 364038 360040
      356044 356049 358052 361054 367054 375051 384056 388059
      392058 399058 404056 406053 406049 403042 399041 392036
      391032 392029 395025 397021 397015 397000 394988 392982
      392975 395964 398954 400947 402944 406935 415928 419918
      423908 426898 432875 440857 448837 451831 455835 461842
      464846 466851 469855 470863 468876 466886 467892 470895
      474894 480890 485884 491874 494866 496858
 0.01 451078 452076 451075 450073 448072 446072 445070 443069
      441069 440072 439072 440072 441072 443074 443075 444075
      446077 448078 449078 451078 451078
 0.01 445041 445038 445036 443034 442035 440035 440036 438038
      439040 440041 441043 443043 445041 445041
 0.01 313871 312862 310854 305840 297830 287823 279824 276826
      274828 271834 271843 276857 278863 282869 289879 298887
      302887 305886 309880 313871
 0.01 299813 299808 296805 290801 277797 270796 262796 256798
      250802 245808 243810 243815 244819 246821 251817 256817
      258819 263823 267823 270821 271817 269814 264810 262806
      267805 274807 280810 293816 297815 299813
 0.25 517198 518194 518189 516182 511170 505161 497153 488147
      477142 466139 455138 450139 446141 442147 440153 440157
      443159 446163 447165 447171 445177 442183 441187 442190
      445194 449192 456184 463174 473176 482183 489190 494193
      501195 509199 514200 517198
 0.25 508248 510241 509235 507224 504215 501211 498208 493205
      489203 481206 474210 467212 451216 447217 444220 444225
      447229 455231 458234 459239 465245 471253 477259 485266
      492269 496269 500266 502264 504258 508248
 0.25 385002 386997 385993 383988 380983 377977 373972 368976
      367978 367983 370987 372994 374999 378004 381005 384004
      385002
 0.25 301863 301857 300851 298847 296844 292841 289841 286843
      284848 285852 287856 289860 292864 295868 299868 301864
      301863
 0.50 505242 506233 504226 501219 496213 490211 484210 472213
      461217 449219 447220 446223 451225 465224 479226 484230
      489235 494239 502243 505242
 0.50 504179 503170 499165 494161 487157 475154 470153 464154
      456162 452167 449175 449179 453180 456174 460167 464162
      475170 481174 485179 491183 499183 504179

$$





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