Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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776
FXUS04 KWBC 281859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/0000 UTC THRU APR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...DAY 1...

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY SNOW IN THE CO ROCKIES AND
THEN LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAT TEXAS TOP THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
CO FRI.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH OF THIS
STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS IN
A REGION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BAND MADE INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS CLOSED LOW.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HEAVY SNOWS IN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON THE
ADJACENT PLAINS.
SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION ON
THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE AREAS AND CHALLENGES.

INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO AND OVER THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ONE REGION OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER JET AXIS LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FAVORS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE...CONTINUING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OK FRI. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS SO A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS USED AMONG THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/WRF AWR/NSSL WRF.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER
EAST ON THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE ARKLTEX AND LA/AR FRI.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ WRF
ARW/ NSSL WRF SHOWS SLIGHTLY SOONER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN EAST
TEXAS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FRI WITH ACTIVITY CROSSING AR/ADJACENT NORTHERN LA.

 BOTH WITH HOW FAR TO THE NORTHEAST PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY---AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  DAY
1 QPF KEPT WITH CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MODERATE TOTALS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS---WHILE SHOWING HEAVIEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST
TO EAST BOUNDARY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE---ACROSS NORTHERN
TX/SOUTHERN OK.  STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE ALSO WITH
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS.   WITH A LOT OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW---BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
FROM 0000-1200 UTC FRIDAY.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
QPF MEAN WHICH SHOWED PRECIP PUSHING DOWNSTREAM FASTER...CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF AND GFS.  WHILE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS WERE KEPT IN
THE .25-.50"+ RANGE---THERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER TOTALS GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT.  RUNOFF ISSUE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT...WITH A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

THE DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND INTENSITIES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO
DECREASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES.  STRONGER
LIFT OCCURS SOUTH OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN IN SOUTHERN VA TO
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AXIS OF HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE/PW VALUES
AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HEAVIEST TOTALS
LIKELY OVER EASTERN NC.  SINCE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC HAD HEAVY
SHOWERS/STORMS LAST NIGHT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY CELLS COULD CAUSE
FLOODING CONCERNS.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE QPF FROM
CONTINUITY...THE ECMWF..AND WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN
SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MODELS SHOW A RESPITE FOR THESE AREAS AS A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.
SEE THE RECENT MESOSCALE PRECIP DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 537210 539202 540192 540177 541173 540166 537153 537150
      535149 530146 523141 519140 515140 511141 506140 503141
      496140 488135 482129 476123 474118 472113 471108 467107
      464108 462109 462112 460115 457115 454113 454110 455103
      451099 444093 438089 429093 424098 420102 416099 416092
      418088 419081 422077 424074 426072 428073 431075 434073
      436068 435061 438049 443025 442017 439004 436992 433982
      431978 428975 423973 419968 416965 415959 413956 408956
      404954 399953 391950 388947 386943 382936 381930 381925
      381918 382913 382899 382891 380886 377882 374879 364875
      344872 332873 326873 322870 317862 316859 319856 325850
      330842 333838 334832 336828 340825 352815 361810 364808
      366808 367811 378826 385832 393835 398837 400842 406852
      409860 410868 412873 413884 416897 424917 429925 438928
      443930 447922 450917 449913 448908 446898 441887 438877
      440871 440868 438860 438852 436822 435807 435793 435788
      434780 432768 429759 424751 418742 416729 414724 413716
      411702 406693 400685 397670 395665 392662 386656 383655
      379658 374660 371663 364669 361671 362678 364688 359692
      356696 351705 347714 343721 335734 312766 310775 310787
      308792 305795 296797 287802 284803 280802 261804 258805
      256807 255812 255816 259819 273829 282833 290836 295845
      294849 296855 307895 307902 309907 309918 308921 307919
      305915 303907 302901 301897 297897 294900 293907 293912
      297923 302933 301938 297941 289946 283952 271964 271977
      271983 273987 278995 280999 284001 289004 292014 298021
      305028 313031 324032 334034 337034 341032
 0.01 341032 347031 350036 352042 351049 345056 338063 332072
      329077 328082 327096 328102 330105 332111 335116 338120
      341123 350129 354132 358136 361139 363144 365155 380149
      388157 395163 402169 408171 411172 412176 418199 425220
      430230 436238 440241 441245 440248 443252 448254 457262
      461265 466268 472270 475268 482260 488251 494251 497252
      498255 497246 497242 500241 503245 511252 515253 518249
      523247 525243 530232 532226 534218 537210
 0.01 382197 381195 379193 378191 374190 373188 371185 368185
      367187 368190 371191 372193 375196 377197 380198 382197
 0.01 373177 373173 371171 370168 369166 365165 361164 358164
      356166 355169 356171 359173 360175 363177 365178 367178
      371178 373177
 0.25 526198 526193 525192 521187 519181 515177 511173 508168
      505164 500161 490164 486166 482169 476169 475165 481166
      480162 470155 463146 461144 458144 453146 450149 448153
      449158 450165 452170 457172 463174 470177 474180 478179
      480171 483178 487182 490185 494186 500186 503186 511196
      520203 524202 526198
 0.25 422777 421771 419766 413755 409753 405757 400765 395774
      391774 390777 390783 391791 392796 393798 396799 402798
      408797 411795 410791 410788 413787 417788 421785 422779
      422777
 0.25 422055 423050 423045 423035 423018 422010 419003 412995
      408990 404985 400979 396976 385971 379963 374958 370953
      367939 366923 365914 362908 358904 356897 356892 354890
      350886 345883 341883 338884 331892 329899 327906 324913
      323919 320932 312941 305951 298959 291967 288972 287976
      286981 289988 294991 304996 316000 319001 320003 321012
      323018 328022 336023 343022 348022 354023 357027 359034
      358043 359052 362058 366063 369067 372073 374079 377083
      383083 387086 393086 397083 400077 403070 407068 412064
      418060 422055
 0.25 382727 381719 380714 375705 371702 367703 363711 353728
      342742 330757 325764 325770 329772 339772 339779 341786
      345789 349787 356779 360770 360765 360758 360752 363749
      368741 377737 381733 382728 382727
 0.25 367101 367099 367098 366097 365096 363096 362096 363099
      363101 365102 366102 367101
 0.50 415048 416038 416029 415014 413008 411004 404996 396987
      389981 380976 375973 371969 363961 361947 360933 359925
      358918 356912 353905 350894 347889 342887 337889 335894
      333900 331908 330913 329920 328926 327933 320941 314949
      306957 299964 293972 292975 292978 293983 295986 299987
      303987 314987 326985 332986 334993 333999 330004 328009
      331015 334018 341019 356018 361021 363026 364052 368055
      373057 384062 387067 391070 394068 395066 397060 399057
      403056 409054 413052 415048
 0.50 356739 351741 347747 344753 346757 345767 345771 345776
      348780 350780 354775 356767 356762 355759 352756 351753
      353746 356739 356739
 1.00 405042 405030 406022 406016 403010 401006 394998 387993
      381992 376993 369999 366999 364994 363988 361986 358986
      350991 347995 345000 345006 347011 353011 358011 362008
      365008 367011 368017 370021 374025 375031 374036 371039
      369044 370048 381053 387053 392051 397050 401049 404045
      405042
 1.00 354960 355953 354946 353934 352919 351913 350909 347905
      347898 345893 343892 340893 338896 336901 334913 333925
      332932 330937 327946 325950 321953 313958 307964 303972
      303978 306979 313980 317979 326977 333977 338976 342975
      346972 351966 354960
 1.50 396041 395039 394037 393036 392036 391036 389035 387035
      385035 384036 385038 385040 385042 385043 387043 389044
      390044 392044 394044 394043 396041 396041
 1.50 357005 357003 356001 355002 355005 356005 357005
 1.50 350945 351934 350925 348914 347911 344910 340910 337913
      336921 334930 332939 330946 327953 321957 316960 310965
      308968 308973 314976 321974 328972 337972 343967 347963
      349954 350945
 2.00 349943 348936 346929 344921 341918 339919 338924 336930
      334936 333943 331950 328955 325958 319961 315965 314969
      316971 319972 321971 326968 330967 334968 339965 345956
      349943
 3.00 344941 344939 344936 343934 341932 339931 339932 337934
      337936 336939 337941 337942 339943 341943 342943 343942
      344941

$$





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