Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

HEIGHT FALLS THAT COMPOSED A PORTION OF THE MEAN TROF THAT HAS
BEEN OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY INLAND DAY 1 FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  PW VALUES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH TIME DAY 1 FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  THE MOST
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING FRIDAY---REDUCING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER THREAT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ACROSS
VANCOUVER ISLAND-WESTERN B.C. WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.  MODELS ARE SHOWING TYPICAL GOOD AGREEMENT
DAY 1 IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTHWEST--WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM NW WY INTO CENTRAL
ID---SW MT---AND ACROSS THE WA-OREGON CASCADES AND OLYMPIC
PENINSULA.

NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY---WILL SUPPORT  MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE  PRECIP TOTALS DAY 1 ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GREATEST TOTALS AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.

FLORIDA

THE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AS THE
STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES OFFSHORE.  IN ITS WAKE---MOSTLY
SCATTERED LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP TOTAL
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 535209 536200 536193 535185 532181 522162 519157 516153
      513153 511149 508143 505139 503134 505128 511109 512102
      514098 514090 516085 518055 519037 519030 521025 528001
      532988 535976 542952 546939 543926 542917 542909 542901
      541895 545887 546875 547868 547862 546847 544836 541826
      534801 533793 532784 530766 523739 519727 514715 510707
      508703 504699 493691 485688 482687 479691 477692 474689
      471689 468693 465698 461697 456699 452702 449707 444709
      439711 439715 441717 444717 447716 447719 445720 445723
      445727 447727 450731 449735 447738 445738 436742 433746
      432751 434763 439763 442760 449753 451745 455736 460729
      462727 463729 462735 460741 456751 455764 451772 447785
      444795 443803 445805 446809 445812 443816 444822 447825
      450829 450836 452839 452844 451850 451857 450862 450875
      450882 449888 447896 446900 446906 446914 448920 450923
      453919 457915 459914 462915 457923 455929 452934 450940
      450947 449952 448960 449967 451971 462972 465969 469969
      477970 482971 484974 485980 486985 486001 486018 486030
      490043 495053 494060 495066 494084 493102 492119 491124
      489125 483124 475119 474114 476110 478107 477102 475093
      470090 467091 466084 467077 467071 466068 465056 463047
      460042 457039 453040 451045 447058 443062 442058 444055
      445041 444034 440033 438037 436044 435050 431053 424051
      416052 411061 404056 399055 396057 394061 397064 402058
      406058 409061 417067 419072 423076 427080 426084 421085
      421089 426099 422102 420104 420108 417111 412110 410107
      408106 406110 406115 412120 416124 418128 419133 418136
      414147 413152 413157 413165 414169 414174 415177 408223
      406227 401228 396238 396250 398255 401258 406262 408261
      416259 422257 431255 446252 451252 453251 463254 478265
 0.01 478265 481270 483276 489284 496292 502295 506294 509289
      512284 517273 521261 523251 522245 517235 516233 518231
      522230 525230 526229 528223 533211 535209
 0.01 510217 511209 509203 505195 495179 491176 487174 483172
      479172 473178 467183 455195 452198 449203 444208 443212
      444214 449214 455210 462205 466206 470205 478202 484199
      488197 492199 496201 498204 502208 504213 506216 510217
 0.01 510988 511980 510973 510960 509951 508947 505937 503936
      503940 502947 502953 502957 505970 507975 507980 507993
      504006 504010 505013 508009 509003 510996 510988
 0.01 451088 450085 449082 446080 444078 443076 441074 438073
      437076 437081 437083 438087 440089 443090 447090 449089
      451088
 0.01 441132 442125 441119 438117 436119 433123 431128 429135
      428139 428142 432137 434135 438133 441132
 0.01 414071 412068 410068 407065 405065 403067 401067 399069
      397073 397076 399076 401074 403072 406072 410073 412073
      414071
 0.01 368730 368721 364715 361711 360702 358694 356687 354683
      350680 344680 339683 330691 325700 319709 305726 297732
      286736 272739 268740 266742 263745 257754 255763 251774
      251778 249780 246786 245790 244796 245801 243805 241809
      239811 236812 233821 233836 235841 237844 243847 248847
      254844 256840 260837 267835 271834 275831 278826 282823
      286818 288817 290818 308809 315808 318807 320805 326803
      331799 337791 340781 345770 352760 362743 367735 368730
 0.25 530200 530197 528194 523189 521183 518179 513175 509172
      507174 508182 512188 516193 519197 522198 524196 529200
      530200
 0.25 517265 518256 518249 514239 509227 504218 501213 497208
      494206 490206 479207 472211 467214 462215 458216 454216
      452220 456224 459229 459233 454235 451238 461241 477256
      489273 497282 500286 505288 509284 511278 516267 517265
 0.25 530939 531929 531920 529912 530905 530897 529888 528883
      528875 527866 526859 522845 519833 516819 502770 500754
      497745 495740 491731 488726 485723 482723 479729 473739
      471749 470762 470779 470784 473791 474797 474804 474818
      474827 473833 471839 470847 473852 477855 480857 482857
      488846 495856 500865 503877 502891 507903 515921 519934
      522948 524962 525964 526961 527955 530939
 0.25 499250 499248 498245 497243 496241 495241 494239 493238
      492237 491236 490237 491237 492239 493240 494241 495244
      496246 496247 498248 499250 499250
 0.25 485136 479129 472123 468122 465126 464129 459129 448143
      443144 438143 436146 436153 446167 450176 454178 453181
      455184 459183 461180 464176 460175 456177 455174 455169
      456164 460161 467159 471158 473152 470143 470138 475137
      482136 485136
 0.25 486841 484841 485841 486843 486841
 0.25 446221 444218 443218 440217 438219 434219 431218 428218
      426219 424222 427225 430225 434226 436225 439225 441224
      444223 446221
 0.25 458108 454098 452095 448096 445098 440096 436096 433092
      430089 426088 425091 427096 430100 428103 424104 423108
      424116 427118 435114 436112 440112 444113 446114 448113
      452111 458108
 0.25 420240 419238 419237 418236 416235 414234 413234 411234
      410235 409235 407236 406236 405238 406241 408242 409242
      410241 412241 413241 413240 415240 417241 419241 420240
 0.25 354717 353707 351698 346695 341698 332708 324717 317727
      311736 307742 304748 304755 302759 298765 294770 289774
      286777 282783 280788 279793 281796 285798 291801 298802
      309801 317799 325797 328793 331787 341764 347752 351740
      352734 352726 354717
 0.25 261821 261817 259815 254814 248812 244813 240817 238824
      240831 242835 246836 249835 253832 257828 259823 261821
 0.50 514266 516261 516256 515247 509235 503224 498213 496212
      492211 486211 481209 476211 474214 475217 481218 487220
      490224 492231 495238 501248 502255 499254 498251 492242
      487237 482241 480235 476231 474232 472234 472239 473242
      480252 486263 492272 501282 506285 508280 512271 514266
 0.50 518892 518889 518887 518886 517884 516882 516880 515879
      514877 512876 512877 512879 513881 513882 513884 514887
      514888 515890 516892 518894 518892
 0.50 504839 504838 504836 503834 502833 502832 500830 500829
      499829 497830 499832 499833 500834 501837 501838 502839
      503841 504840 504839
 0.50 491795 489785 486775 486765 485753 483750 480751 478754
      477760 478768 477777 478785 481791 487797 490797 491795
 0.50 470153 469148 466142 463140 458140 456142 453147 450151
      448155 449157 455157 458157 462156 467156 470153
 0.50 445152 443149 442148 440149 439151 439153 441154 443155
      444155 445152 445152
 0.50 434100 434099 434097 433095 432095 431092 429091 428090
      427091 428094 429095 430097 431097 432099 434099 434100
      434100
 0.50 427106 427105 425105 425107 426107 427106
 0.50 346714 345710 344709 340709 337711 331717 324726 319733
      314744 311753 306763 300770 293777 288785 287791 290795
      293797 297798 304799 311797 321793 324790 327786 332777
      341758 344747 347737 347731 346723 346714
 1.00 511260 511252 510246 507240 503233 500228 498224 494222
      493225 495232 497238 501243 504249 507256 509261 511260
 1.00 505279 505271 503265 499260 497254 493248 490243 487244
      486246 487254 489260 492265 495270 499275 503280 505279
 1.00 336734 336733 334733 332733 330734 328734 327736 325737
      325738 324741 326741 328742 329742 330742 331742 333741
      335739 335738 336736 336735 336734
 1.00 333752 332748 330747 323749 319753 316757 310767 304776
      298786 296793 299796 305795 311792 316789 320786 326776
      329770 330763 333752
 1.50 502275 503270 500264 497260 496257 494252 491248 489247
      489252 491258 492261 495266 498270 501274 502275
 1.50 324769 322765 318765 315768 313771 311775 309780 308784
      311788 315785 318781 320778 322774 324769 324769

$$




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