Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 281830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 29/0000 UTC THRU MAR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED
EASTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS
WITH THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL PUSH OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION AN AREA OF ENHANCED
UVVS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
PERIOD---SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AND SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SEE THE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY.  THE QUICK EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST
DETERRENT TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.  HOWEVER---WITH AN AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE
STRONG ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS---WIDESPREAD
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE POSSIBLE.  THERE MAY
BE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP TOTAL OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE L.P. OF
MI FROM WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON---HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL DIRECT THE AXIS OF
ADDITIONAL ONSHORE FLOW MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND COASTAL B.C.  THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 538205 537196 533188 530181 530175 528172 523165 519159
      515156 508156 510165 505163 498163 497168 498172 497185
      498188 502190 507195 512201 515208 522213 527218 531220
      533218 536211 538205
 0.01 545893 545882 543875 540861 542845 541829 541820 539813
      533801 532795 534789 535783 535776 530762 528756 525752
      522747 519745 514746 510749 500756 497760 494765 490775
      486786 484791 481796 479801 474804 465803 460802 454802
      446804 442807 433813 425819 422822 418823 401836 393844
      388852 385856 383861 380870 377875 377882 375885 375890
      377895 380900 385902 390902 392906 391908 388921 387927
      387935 393943 398940 402936 410919 415914 418910 427909
      438912 441916 435918 417926 410935 407945 409950 412950
      414952 420952 424954 429957 434957 443962 448965 450969
      450973 446986 450993 452008 453024 453032 455037 460048
      463052 466056 470059 472063 477073 489093 492097 498098
      506094 510091 513087 519079 524070 527055 528037 526023
      523008 522001 521994 520986 520981 525971 530962 535949
      538935 541923 544906 544897 545893
 0.01 520271 522263 522259 521256 520250 518244 515234 511224
      505216 503211 500208 494205 489204 485204 481207 477209
      474213 474216 478220 482222 484227 483233 480230 477229
      475230 472233 470237 470243 478264 481274 485284 488288
      492291 497292 501292 510291 513288 516283 519275
 0.01 427698 426689 425686 423686 417687 411688 408689 404693
      402698 401704 398714 397720 398728 400733 404736 409736
      413732 416729 419724 424715 426703 427698
 0.25 532208 531203 530197 528191 527185 525176 522172 518174
      515175 512173 507170 504172 503178 504184 510191 516198
      521205 524208 527210 532208
 0.25 518271 519262 519256 516246 512235 507226 502217 499212
      496209 492209 488211 485215 485220 490229 494240 490237
      486236 482238 479233 476232 472236 473243 477253 482260
      487271 491280 495283 500285 504286 509286 512283 515279
      518271
 0.25 524886 524879 524872 522862 520852 516845 514838 515831
      516821 517810 514807 510806 506813 503821 501832 498840
      494846 491848 487849 481848 476842 468839 461842 454845
      449851 446853 442853 437854 432856 432859 440862 447863
      454861 460864 462869 461876 460887 461893 462897 464900
      467901 473897 478895 482896 484901 486904 489906 494906
      496909 501916 506919 511919 513917 518911 520905 522898
      524886
 0.25 488990 488985 488980 486972 482967 477965 472968 469972
      467979 467986 469994 473998 480998 484995 488990
 0.50 516272 517262 517256 515249 513244 511236 509232 503221
      497212 492213 488216 487220 488223 491229 495240 502249
      506261 499254 496249 493244 490239 488237 485237 482240
      479236 476233 474236 474241 476246 478251 483256 486261
      491272 494277 499281 505283 509281 513277 516272
 0.50 526201 525195 523190 522186 517183 515179 511177 510175
      508180 509185 512188 515190 518195 521198 525201 526201
 0.50 503870 503865 502861 500860 497859 494860 492861 491866
      492871 493873 494878 495881 497881 499880 501877 502873
      503870
 0.50 486859 485859 484858 483859 484861 485860 486859
 1.00 514266 515259 514253 511244 509238 507235 502227 498219
      496216 494216 491219 491224 492230 494235 497239 503246
      506255 509264 511268 514266
 1.00 505276 504268 503263 501260 497255 493247 489240 485240
      483243 480245 482249 487254 491262 494269 498276 501278
      504279 505276
 1.50 511260 512256 511252 509246 507240 503234 500228 498223
      495220 493225 494233 497238 502242 505247 507253 509260
      511260
 1.50 503275 503267 499261 496256 493251 491245 487241 484245
      484248 487251 490256 492261 495267 499273 503275
 2.00 502272 502267 499262 496257 494254 492250 490245 488245
      487249 489252 491257 493261 495265 498269 501273 502272
 2.00 500235 500234 499232 498230 498229 497226 496225 495226
      495228 495231 495232 496234 498235 499236 500235
 3.00 497263 496260 495257 495256 493255 493256 494259 495259
      496260 497263 497263

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.