Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171016
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
615 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 17/1200 UTC THRU JUL 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...OVERVIEW...

THE DAY 1 QPF FROM 12Z TO 12Z BEGINS TO LOOK LIKE A RING OF FIRE
AS WE BUILD WHAT ON DAY 2 WILL BECOME A BROAD 594 DECAMETER RIDGE
CENTERED ON OK/KS. THE DEEPEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE POSITION...AND WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF A QUARTER INCH WITH LOCAL HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FROM TEXAS TO NORTH CAROLINA. THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON WAS
EVENTUALLY PRODUCTIVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES IN SOME CASES. CAPE
PROFILES ARE FORECAST BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY...SUCH THAT INTENSE
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE SLIDING DOWN INTO ARIZONA THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL
BECOME WEAK AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. USING A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY / GFS / NAM CONUS NEST...THE WPC QPF HERE REMAINS OF
MODERATE INTENSITY...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...CLOSER TO A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.

MORE ENERGETIC WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
U.S. WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ALSO OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE
WAVES ARE SEPARATED FROM SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
AVERAGE FOR SUMMER...AND PROGRESSIVE STORM MODES HELPING TO KEEP
THE ODDS OF EXTREME LOCAL RAINFALL AT TOLERABLY LOW LEVELS. AREAL
AVERAGE OF AROUND AN INCH...HOWEVER...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS...MAY LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH
LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OVER NEW YORK / NEW ENGLAND.

FINALLY...A SMALL VORT MAX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE
POSITION...AND IS BEING DRAGGED VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SMALL SCALE BUT HEAVY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE EXPECTED WHERE THIS FEATURE OVERLAPS WITH SOUTHERLY INFLOW AND
A RELATIVE INSTABILITY AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN BETWEEN INTERSTATES 70
AND 80 FROM OAKLEY / HAYS TO NORTH PLATTE / KEARNEY. WHILE WPC
DETERMINISTIC QPF IS CONSERVATIVE HERE...THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE HI-RES MODELS THAT IS SEEN ACROSS
THE NATION ON DAY 1. WIND PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ROTATION / DEVIANT MOTION...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO MOTION AT
TIMES. GIVEN THIS AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY INFLOW RESPONDING TO
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.


...DAY 2 (12Z TUE-12Z WED)...

SOUTHWEST

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS OF MOST
ANOMALOUS PWATS BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE INTO NORTHERN AZ. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS. A BROAD MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED 1" IN AN HOUR TOTALS WHERE
CELL MERGERS OCCUR. SOME SIGNS THE FOCUS COULD END UP MORE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. NOTE ABOUT 20 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR
HERE...AND WEAK MEAN FLOW...WHICH SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. AT THIS POINT NOT
A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK...BUT SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING.

CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.
WILL HAVE A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MN/IA BORDER...WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG CENTRAL U.S. MID/UPPER
RIDGE. ALSO WILL HAVE A STRONG UPPER JET TO THE
NORTH...PERIODICALLY RESULTING IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE
TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF ARE HOWEVER PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH THE LOCATION OF THEIR BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR.
THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ONE POSSIBLE REASON WHY IT IS LOWER WITH ITS
QPF MAGNITUDE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS...ALONG WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75"...FEEL LIKE THE
ECMWF IS PROBABLY TOO LOW WITH ITS MAXIMUM AMOUNTS. ALL THE OTHER
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AS
WELL...ADDING A BIT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS THOUGHT.

BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGHT A COMPROMISE OF
THE 0Z GFS...PARALLEL GFS AND 3KM NAM WAS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION FOR THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF. THIS PUTS THE FOCUS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND HIGH
PWAT AIR OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SOME FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION. THUS WHILE THE CURRENT SLIGHT
RISK WAS PLACED IN THE LOCATION THAT IS CONSIDERED TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE AT LEAST
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
TRENDS.


...DAY 3 (12Z WED-12Z THU)...

SOUTHWEST

THE PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN NV...UT AND WESTERN CO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ANTICIPATE THAT THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS WELL. CURRENTLY DO
NOT SEE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION. THUS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF A PULSE NATURE WITH HEAVY RATES
ONLY LASTING FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN ANY ONE LOCATION.
REGARDLESS...THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF
HEAVY RATES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES
IN MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS AZ/EASTERN NV...UT AND WESTERN
CO. THUS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK WILL ENCOMPASS THIS REGION.


CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REINFORCE THE EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THIS WAVE AND THE UPPER JET TO THE NORTH WILL BOTH BE
STRONGER THAN THE DAY 2 SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE INTENSE AND EVEN MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE
SEE ON DAY 2. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL HAVE EXTREME INSTABILITY
POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL. MEAN FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTS THAT SOME TRAINING IS LIKELY...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION TO THE CONVECTION LIKELY.

GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY...A STRONGER
UPPER JET TO THE NORTH...AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE AT
LEAST A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SEE ON DAY 2. ADDING TO THE THREAT
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THAI HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL IN THE SAME
AREA THAT GETS IT ON DAY 2. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SPREAD ON
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WPC FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION GENERALLY IN BETWEEN
THE LAST FEW RUINS OF THE GFS/PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF. THIS BRINGS
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND
SOUTHERN WI...WHERE A SLIGHT RISK WAS PLACED. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY GOOD THAT AT LEAST SOME FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHIFTS
IN THE AXIS. THUS FUTURE NORTH/SOUTH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SLIGHT
RISK ARE PROBABLE...AND WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


BURKE/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 506944 504921 504910 501902 497891 496886 495878 489858
      485854 481855 477859 475863 465882 456901 447922 439938
      432952 426960 421960 417958 411962 403967 394971 387977
      380984 377989 376994 376001 378006 379012 383014 385018
      392019 402018 411019 417016 422011 424008 424003 425995
      423990 421987 421984 425982 430981 433981 434985 432990
      429001 430007 433007 435010 432024 430028 426030 421032
      418032 417030 412024 408027 407031 407037 406042 403045
      398044 392040 380047 375047 373042 373037 371032 368034
      365036 360043 358046 355046 351047 347051 341051 333047
      322044 315037 313036 312032 313024 315020 315013 317001
      318994 316990 314981 314959 315953 317949 322941 324936
      324930 324917 360843 367827 376815 383809 387807 391808
      393809 394812 393816 390826 384847 379858 373865 368874
      365886 363898 363906 364914 368921 373927 385934 400943
      400938 398933 393927 384906 384898 385892 387886 389881
      400865 403861 405855 405841 404834 404827 404823 406818
      410802 413798 416795 423789 430783 434787 437792 442791
      445788 451780 462765 465760 466754 468742 467736 469730
      473720 477712 481704 486697 485686 484678 482670 476666
      468663 460667 457672 455677 454683 453686 447694 442697
      439701 432709 428713 425718 419727 416730 413735 392759
      391766 386774 372785 368788 366789 364788 364784 366782
      370779 374776 377771 380766 380760 382755 381751 382747
      384742 385736 384729 382726 377726 374725 371722 367721
      361721
 0.01 361721 354725 349729 339736 336739 335744 332752 326766
      309797 307801 304801 297798 288795 279794 274790 269787
      260788 256791 253794 252798 247803 241808 236813 236819
      237824 242828 254828 260831 268835 273835 278835 289834
      291835 288838 284845 284849 285853 287861 285868 283885
      282896 281906 278928 278940 273947 266962 262970 262974
      259974 255975 253978 252982 249984 248986 243987 239990
      238994 238998 241006 247012 252016 256017 261015 265014
      268017 274021 275024 279027 286032 290034 293037 296045
      302051 310062 313063 317064 320063 324063 328068 332069
      335069 338066 342065 346066 349068 348075 345076 342076
      334077 325078 315076 297068 293061 288055 280053 274050
      268047 262048 253050 248053 247059 248063 252069 261082
      272094 284105 298117 300119 300124 301128 303130 309132
      314133 317137 320139 323142 328143 331151 338153 343154
      348152 352152 355155 360159 370161 375161 379160 386155
      400146 404141 407139 411139 418140 422136 426129 429120
      426119 423121 417127 414127 411125 410119 414106 416094
      416087 419084 422081 424081 426094 428101 427115 432119
      435112 439106 442104 444106 445116 444125 442139 442145
      444147 450149 454147 456142 457135 456130 457123 459111
      461099 462084 468079 469075 470068 464009 466014 469012
      475004 482985 487977 491968 495960 501956 504950 506944
 0.01 458074 458071 457069 456066 455065 454064 452063 451063
      450064 449066 449068 449070 450073 451075 453075 455075
      456075 458074
 0.01 452083 449078 446076 441077 437077 432077 429078 427084
      431087 435088 438086 442086 445088 449086 452083
 0.01 434054 434053 432052 430054 428055 427056 425058 426060
      427060 427063 428065 429063 430063 431061 431059 432058
      432056 434055 434054
 0.01 403088 402084 399081 390084 389091 381095 374098 370109
      372112 378113 382112 387113 390111 394108 399101 402090
      403088
 0.01 347165 346159 344157 341156 336158 331161 324159 319157
      316161 321163 327166 334168 339171 342172 344170 347165
 0.25 480691 476682 475678 472676 468675 463678 465682 467684
      468690 466694 464697 462698 459697 445704 439708 434714
      428721 423728 416742 410749 406757 403764 398770 393775
      386781 380786 375792 379794 382793 391789 418774 422770
      430766 434765 438767 440772 444772 457739 458731 462723
      471706 475699 480691
 0.25 494939 495922 495911 493903 489892 483882 478881 474885
      469898 465907 460920 456932 451945 447955 444962 443969
      441974 441978 442981 445986 450984 457976 461973 464973
      466974 469987 472987 474985 476979 477971 479965 482960
      486956 494939
 0.25 455042 455031 455027 455020 455015 453012 446008 442009
      440012 438021 440028 437035 437041 438045 440049 440055
      443057 447056 453052 455043 455042
 0.25 416008 416001 415995 414991 413988 414985 414980 412977
      407975 403978 398984 390988 388992 386997 385003 387010
      390012 395013 404011 409011 413010 416008
 0.25 408105 409103 408100 408098 407100 407103 407105 407106
      408105
 0.25 399851 397848 394853 387859 382869 377879 374889 370900
      371905 373900 374894 376889 381877 383874 388872 394863
      398853 399851
 0.25 381078 380073 377069 373067 370061 368058 366055 363055
      359057 356058 356062 356069 356075 354079 353082 353086
      353089 350095 351100 354100 356099 359096 362090 361084
      361080 363079 367078 371077 374079 376082 379083 381081
      381078
 0.25 374740 373734 370733 364732 358732 354734 347738 340745
      336753 333761 329770 323781 319789 316797 315802 312806
      310810 306813 299811 292807 280802 271800 267795 260796
      257799 252807 247812 244815 244819 250817 255814 259812
      262814 263818 261821 261826 265829 270830 275829 286829
      295830 299834 298837 296839 290844 287846 287850 292859
      290867 288873 289879 290891 290902 289909 288915 289921
      292928 296935 292939 288940 285943 283946 278954 272965
      271971 274973 278972 281970 285962 291956 295953 297949
      297938 301936 302933 303924 306916 309908 315903 319893
      320889 324885 326883 329878 330862 331851 334842 334837
      332832 334821 336811 337807 340805 347805 353802 355798
      355792 354781 357779 362777 366774 368770 364751 371747
      374740
 0.25 367140 369134 368129 364122 358114 352108 347103 345095
      343091 338090 334092 329094 322091 319087 316085 300077
      293074 289067 287063 285059 277059 270055 260055 256055
      252058 253063 256066 267076 272083 278089 283090 287090
      292091 293094 290098 292101 297107 302112 306120 309123
      312125 318126 323128 329132 332134 335133 335128 332123
      332119 336118 339119 341124 342128 344131 349139 352141
      357144 363143 367140
 0.25 370802 370799 367800 365801 361802 359803 358805 357810
      357813 357815 361815 362814 364811 366809 368806 369804
      370802
 0.25 306000 307996 306994 302992 300994 299996 297999 295002
      295006 296009 300009 302006 303004 304002 306000
 0.25 277997 278994 278991 276987 272979 269978 264980 261980
      257984 256987 256994 252994 248992 243993 243997 243000
      249006 254008 258005 264005 269006 273004 274999 277997
 0.50 491919 491913 490908 488902 485898 483895 479892 475895
      472900 468907 465917 462927 459940 457948 452957 445978
      448982 451980 455971 457967 458961 456955 459950 461952
      466954 469958 472959 475958 477954 482946 485944 488940
      490927 491919
 0.50 459711 456708 453707 448708 442709 436715 430723 421739
      417746 412754 409757 408762 405766 402769 399772 398776
      403775 407775 410777 413775 419768 426763 432756 436754
      441754 445756 450753 452750 453744 453731 455722 459711
 0.50 414005 414001 413998 410992 408987 407984 404984 400987
      394990 391994 388999 387004 388007 394010 399007 404005
      411007 414005
 0.50 366739 359736 349740 342747 337758 336768 335771 332773
      328776 324785 323791 320795 317805 315811 315817 322814
      326810 328805 338787 345780 345778 342779 339779 337775
      339771 347763 352757 357747 362742 366739
 0.50 360134 360128 359124 356120 354117 349114 348116 349121
      350126 350132 352137 354137 358135 360134
 0.50 363067 362066 361065 360065 359067 360068 362068 363067
 0.50 346114 347110 345107 344105 343100 342098 340096 338099
      337102 339104 341106 342109 343111 345114 346114
 0.50 334110 328102 324102 321103 319101 318097 319091 316088
      313087 310088 311092 306092 302095 298099 298101 301106
      304110 307115 309118 314122 318120 323122 325123 328122
      328118 328114 332112 334110
 0.50 331822 331820 331818 330816 328816 327818 327819 327820
      327822 327823 329824 331823 331822
 0.50 326851 325845 321842 319840 317840 316843 316848 314852
      314858 314864 314871 317873 319868 320864 320860 322855
      325851 326851
 0.50 308846 307841 304841 297845 292849 293853 296855 297857
      298863 293868 292871 291876 293885 295892 295901 295904
      299906 300907 300910 300912 302912 302899 300897 300895
      304896 306892 308885 305876 303868 304862 306860 306855
      306850 308846
 0.50 305823 305819 303817 299815 289809 284807 278805 271807
      268806 267804 264798 259800 256804 254806 254810 264809
      266810 266813 265816 266820 270823 276825 289825 295826
      302825 305823
 0.50 291083 291078 289074 283068 275064 272066 269064 271062
      268061 264060 259058 257059 256061 261068 267073 273079
      279086 282087 286086 291083
 0.50 274991 273989 273988 272986 270984 268984 266984 264984
      262986 264988 266988 268990 269990 270991 271991 273991
      274991
 0.50 253004 254002 253000 251998 249997 248996 247995 246996
      245998 246000 247002 248002 249003 250004 251004 253005
      253004
 1.00 482927 483919 482912 480908 477905 474909 472913 471920
      472927 472933 473935 476936 479933 482929 482927
 1.00 446722 443718 441718 438722 435726 433730 431733 428738
      427743 429744 432742 435739 438735 441732 443728 445723
      446722
 1.00 425753 424753 423753 421754 419756 419757 420759 421758
      423757 424756 424754 425753
 1.00 317110 317109 317108 316105 315104 315103 314101 312102
      311102 310103 308103 306104 306106 306107 308108 310108
      311107 313108 314109 315110 317110 317110
 1.00 317093 317092 315090 314092 314094 314097 315097 316095
      316093 317093
 1.00 294818 294817 292816 292815 290814 288813 287812 286812
      284812 284813 286813 287814 288816 289816 288817 288818
      288820 290820 292819 294819 294818
 1.00 285080 286078 285078 283076 281075 280075 279076 278078
      278080 279081 279082 281083 283082 285081 285080
 1.00 286821 285820 283819 283818 281818 280817 279815 277814
      275814 273815 273816 272817 271818 272819 273820 274820
      276821 277821 279821 281821 283821 285821 286821

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 508050 509036 509024 505003 497985 493978 486976 479979
      477982 478987 483007 485016 479019 479032 481042 484051
      487060 487065 490070 492072 495071 499069 502066 504065
      506060 507052 508050
 0.01 480683 476682 473682 470681 465681 461684 440697 432702
      420706 413715 407726 401737 395743 386751 382755 382762
      381768 378770 375771 371772 367770 364766 362762 362756
      365744 358736 347736 344740 340744 333745 329749 321756
      318759 313762 290766 285770 278771 272772 267774 257781
      250788 239803 238811 238817 243825 259840 262842 266848
      270858 276882 279895 279902 278908 276915 273919 268927
      264938 259949 256960 254967 252970 252974 253976 255976
      261975 267975 272974 284976 294979 300979 305977 312969
      318960 321956 322947 322931 322924 323919 323910 324902
      324889 327878 331873 336869 344864 352858 356854 360850
      363845 361841 361834 364830 370822 373819 378815 386807
      393800 401793 416778 422773 426770 432762 447745 451741
      453736 458727 462722 466717 471708 476694 480683
 0.01 495873 495866 494860 492855 489852 484847 483839 484829
      482825 482819 480816 479811 482802 485794 486785 487781
      487774 485771 480771 473772 468776 462782 457788 452797
      449805 444820 441829 438837 433842 428850 423858 420866
      416874 414879 414884 411902 408919 403927 396931 384938
      381940 380943 380947 383951 391966 393970 393976 392988
      392994 393998 395002 398003 405001 406007 404011 403021
      402027 400030 392032 389034 387037 384045 382048 377048
      372047 369045 364045 362046 358047 355051 351057 349061
      347065 342071 333073 328077 324081 319082 314080 313077
      312073 313069 316058 316052 315049 312043 310034 309031
      309026 309020 311017 315007 315002 313000 306996 299994
      291993 279993 273996 266998 256006 254010 255015 258022
      261027 264030 268030 271030 273034 275040 277050 277061
      276077 276080 277082 282088 284091 288092 292102 297107
      301114 307120 311126 319138 326140 333145 335147 338148
      341144 343142 346145 351144 361145 366142 372137 383128
      395119 401114 406108 409102 409099 406095 404100 398105
      383112 375113 371114 370109 371103 374101 381097 401079
      406074 411067 415061 418054 418048 421046 429047 433045
      437047 443051 456061 461066 466068 474065 476062 477056
      478049 477043 475040 474036 471032 468022 465003 463980
      462970 462957 462949 463944 465934 469923 472915 479902
      486890 491881 495873
 0.01 408047 406045 406044 405043 403042 401042 399042 398041
      397041 396039 394040 393041 394042 395043 396045 396046
      397048 398048 399049 401048 402048 404048 406047 408047
 0.01 343171 343165 340162 336164 333162 328159 324157 320158
      318160 322163 327165 330167 333169 339171 343171
 0.01 344847 341846 338847 336848 334848 332846 331848 331852
      331857 333861 337858 338858 340856 342853 343849 344847
 0.01 340058 339056 336054 333053 331052 327051 323051 321054
      320057 321059 324061 326062 328062 332061 335061 338060
      340058
 0.25 471880 472873 471867 464864 462863 460858 457856 455857
      448861 441865 436870 433872 431876 428884 426894 421910
      418920 415928 411934 405940 402942 402948 401958 401963
      402967 405976 408979 411981 414982 417982 423979 428978
      433979 439983 441988 441994 438004 439009 442012 450009
      452005 453999 455976 456966 457955 457943 458930 468894
      471880
 0.25 379083 380081 381078 381076 380074 380073 378071 377069
      376068 375067 373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 375083 377085 379083 379083
 0.25 363130 363123 359119 353111 356105 355100 352096 347097
      345097 346092 343088 340087 337088 335092 334098 337103
      338108 341112 342118 346127 348132 354134 359133 363130
 0.25 352758 351752 349749 345751 343755 341759 339763 338768
      338773 340775 342773 345770 347767 350763 352759 352758
 0.25 339790 312816 306815 302813 293809 283805 278803 275798
      273793 268794 267796 270798 266798 253802 251804 252806
      255811 263817 266822 269825 279828 288834 293844 292858
      290868 288874 290881 294931 294937 292943 288946 285951
      286954 289951 293947 298945 301939 302934 302918 304905
      305890 307878 308863 312854 316843 318836 319831 321825
      323820 328811 334802 338795 339790
 0.25 328100 326096 324091 320090 315089 311090 308094 308100
      312103 313106 317106 317103 321101 325102 328100
 0.25 280012 280009 278009 276011 278013 280012 280012
 0.50 462886 462880 460878 456877 454881 452887 449886 448882
      447878 445877 440880 435885 433887 432892 427905 424914
      424921 422929 419936 410945 407953 407959 410966 414973
      426971 434973 438976 444979 446983 446988 444996 443005
      445006 448006 451998 453978 453968 454959 454949 453940
      452934 453929 455922 457917 457912 457903 462886
 0.50 312833 311828 309827 307825 305823 303821 302821 301823
      302825 304829 305831 305835 308837 311835 312833
 0.50 304846 303844 303846 303847 304846
 0.50 285812 286810 284809 282808 276805 272803 267801 261803
      256806 255810 258811 262814 266816 272820 275819 281816
      285812
 1.00 444957 445948 444940 443933 443928 441924 439918 437904
      435903 433904 432911 431919 430926 430933 427938 424942
      422947 422955 423962 429963 433966 437967 441964 444957
 1.00 264807 263806 261806 260806 259807 259809 260809 262809
      263809 263808 264807
 1.50 440947 439945 438940 435941 431941 430943 428946 427949
      430951 432952 433954 437955 438953 440949 440947

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 509978 509970 507965 504962 500965 497968 494966 496962
      497955 497949 495947 491947 486947 482949 479949 478945
      476939 476932 474927 470917 469908 471901 472894 471886
      470878 468871 463844 463838 464831 466826 468821 475803
      472798 468796 466787 464784 459782 453779 448777 446775
      448773 452765 457756 464748 467744 470738 474726 476717
      478705 480692 480685 479678 477674 475672 462675 459675
      457674 453678 452684 450689 447699 446705 447713 446725
      442735 432753 430759 431764 433766 436765 437768 435771
      431781 428792 421808 417819 415823 413829 413833 416833
      418836 412844 407853 404863 405869 406874 409885 418906
      420912 420921 422928 422937 421942 417945 416949 416953
      417959 420963 422968 423975 424988 425996 427002 430006
      437008 439009 439013 440016 458049 465055 477057 483057
      485056 489056 497051 500047 501041 504029 507001 507986
      509978
 0.01 434698 433691 427692 416700 398717 389725 382732 377742
      375748 373753 369764 356765 354764 350764 346769 342772
      338778 333778 328779 330779 332782 328787 322794 318798
      314800 311803 308803 301803 295801 292795 288793 284789
      277787 269786 258787 252789 247792 245796 245803 243809
      244817 249825 254828 259830 266833 271835 282841 287850
      288857 289865 287876 285889 286904 283919 273927 269932
      266937 264947 263953 263958 265972 259982 260985 265986
      270989 277991 280991 283989 287984 295976 301968 307958
      312949 317939 323930 325925 326922 327918 328909 328905
      330901 329884 326874 326867 326858 329846 328840 330833
      331819 340811 346814 348817 348822 350835 354837 358834
      363833 367829 371825 374821 378818 380812 390790 389786
      385784 380789 377794 374797 371801 369803 366803 361802
      367792 370788 371786 371781 372776 377772 382769 389771
      395771 399770 402767 406764 409759 419741 421735 424729
      427724 425715 434698
 0.01 443096 444091 442090 440088 437087 433087 431087 429089
      428091 427096 427099 429102 430104 434105 436105 438103
      440100 441098 443096
 0.01 443038 442036 442035 440035 438035 436035 436038 438038
      439040 440041 441041 443039 443038
 0.01 429037 430032 429030 423025 419024 416026 412031 408037
      403042 398045 392047 386049 377048 374046 369045 363048
      353054 343063 338065 335068 330066 328064 324063 321066
      320069 318071 317080 313084 310083 307081 297072 292068
      287068 284070 280074 278076 274076 262072 257074 256079
      258083 258088 260091 263097 268101 273105 282113 293122
      307130 321133 327133 330130 332130 334132 331139 329142
      329147 331149 333147 339143 342144 343147 345149 346154
      342159 341168 341170 343170 350166 356163 362161 369161
      376161 386155 391150 395143 394139 396134 401129 409120
      413115 417109 424096 424091 423088 418087 416085 416082
      417072 419062 421053 424047 427040 429037
 0.01 336058 329053 318048 313041 306034 303030 299027 294028
      292033 292037 295042 298044 304045 308049 311052 314056
      317059 328059 333060 336058
 0.25 475021 476014 475007 473004 470001 465000 462001 459006
      461010 463014 465018 469021 471024 474024 475021
 0.25 460998 460988 459982 458977 455969 453962 453949 453936
      454927 456918 459910 459904 458897 454879 452872 450868
      448863 445855 444852 444848 446845 446838 442831 436828
      433828 431830 430836 430847 429852 427855 422860 419866
      416874 416883 418891 424909 430923 431929 431935 430947
      429957 430967 435984 439990 445995 455999 458001 460998
 0.25 412064 413059 411056 406054 401055 396059 391062 385067
      379066 376072 375076 375082 378089 375095 372102 369102
      367100 364098 361098 361103 364106 366109 367113 365117
      362116 359115 354114 350122 347128 348131 351132 356134
      359136 363136 369134 371136 376137 381133 385126 394114
      392112 390112 391106 394105 399099 399092 398085 395089
      391090 390082 391075 393073 396074 399078 402075 404072
      403067 400067 400062 403064 403067 406069 410067 412064
 0.25 378112 378110 377108 375107 373107 371108 371109 370111
      369111 368113 368115 369116 370118 371118 372117 373116
      374115 376114 378112
 0.25 323106 322102 320098 313092 306088 297089 289093 285095
      285097 287102 290105 297110 305114 314116 319116 321113
      323106
 0.25 299823 299821 297819 296818 294818 293820 294822 296824
      298824 299823
 0.25 286810 285806 283802 279798 276796 271796 262798 258798
      253799 251802 251806 256812 261815 264817 268818 274818
      283816 286810
 0.50 450974 450947 450932 450928 450920 449907 446896 442887
      439878 433871 430870 426873 424876 422882 422888 423895
      427905 429916 433926 434938 433961 434968 435974 437978
      440981 444982 448981 450974
 0.50 385118 385115 383114 382114 381115 379117 381118 383119
      385118 385118
 0.50 366124 367122 366121 365120 363120 362121 361122 360123
      361125 362125 364124 366124 366124
 0.50 315107 315105 314103 311100 310098 309096 307093 304093
      302095 301097 302099 305101 307102 310104 311107 313108
      315107
 0.50 275805 274805 272804 270804 269804 267805 265805 263805
      261806 260806 258807 257807 258808 259809 260809 262809
      264810 265810 266811 267810 269810 271809 273808 274807
      275805
 1.00 445961 446952 444947 442945 443940 444935 445921 442909
      440903 436900 433896 432902 431911 433916 436930 438937
      440942 441944 440947 438952 437961 438968 440970 443969
      445964 445961
 1.50 442961 442960 440959 440961 442962 442961
 1.50 442925 443923 443921 442918 442916 441913 440911 440910
      439909 438908 436908 435909 435911 435914 436916 436918
      436920 437921 437923 438926 440928 442927 442925

$$





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