Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 26/0000 UTC THRU JAN 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...OHIO VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING DAY 1...AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE "MILLER B"
TYPE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...EXPECT THE TYPICAL TRANSFER FROM
THE SFC CYCLONE PRIOR TO REACHING THE APPALACHIANS TO A
NEWLY-DEVELOPED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA COAST. IN
TERMS OF QPF...THERE WAS BETTER CLUSTERING WITH AMOUNTS DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD (00Z MON-00Z TUE)...HOWEVER THERE REMAINED SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF HOW FAST THE PCPN SPREADS INTO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1 (INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND). THE
NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
RGEM...AND AS A RESULT WPC UTILIZED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING (INCLUDING THE UKMET). AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
THROUGH DAY 1 TOP OUT BETWEEN .25 AND .50 ACROSS INTERIOR PTNS OF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLC AND ERN PTNS OF THE OH VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER
SWATH OF .25+ INCH AMOUNTS ALNOG THE NJ COAST AND LONG ISLAND
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM.


...SOUTHWEST...


HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 568002 569981 566967 564956 562949 560942 557936 551926
      548922 545918 536909 533907 533903 534899 534893 533874
      533870 531867 531859 529851 526845 524842 522841 519839
      516840 504841 499844 494845 488848 482850 468853 447860
      443860 441863 436864 424871 420874 417878 413882 411887
      408900 410907 411911 413914 417917 422919 426921 432921
      438923 444923 453935 469947 479952 484953 486957 487962
      491967 495970 503975 515981 525987 529990 532995 536998
      539003 546012 555018 560015 563011 567007 568002
 0.01 531235 533230 534224 536216 538212 539205 540197 539188
      536182 534180 533177 534171 531164 527157 524152 510146
      504146 497146 491148 491152 492156 495164 496166 499168
      501170 506172 509174 511178 511183 512187 515192 520210
      521218 524225 524232 522235 519244 516244 515241 512236
      510232 506232 504244 504253 503264 501278 498287 491301
      489304 487308 485312 484318 484320 486322 489325 494327
      499325
 0.01 314697 308704 301710 289724 272741 264759 259768 254776
      248784 243790 236798 235810 233817 236818 240818 242821
      241823 241827 238836 242846 243849 245849 249848 254846
      255844 257847 259853 262857 263861 261864 262871 266874
      268876 271876 276873 279869 290854 294846 296841 295836
      321798 327790 330787 334784 341787 348791 353793 357798
      356803 357805 357809 345831 341842 336850 334855 336859
      331866 328870 326875 325880 328883 345882 350886 354890
      357893 359898 365905 371912 377915 380913 380911 383906
      385893 388877 391872 396867 403861 408853 413843 415832
      417818 418811 420806 433783 434771 435758 430737 428731
      426724 423715 421708 416696 413689 412682 408668 406661
      403658 397653 391655 387657 380660 375663 364669 353675
      347678 342681 324690 314697
 0.01 224086 212094 211113 218134 220136 224140 235150 247158
      258164 271169 282170 289168 300163 307162 310161 313163
      323170 330174 335178 339185 340188 343193 347193 347188
      351186 356185 359183 352181 350180 349178 350173 352169
      352164 351155 348148 345143 342137 345137 348139 352141
      353133 348127 343120 329098 323085 319077 315071 313066
      308060 304057 297056 294056 292060 291066 279055 269048
      265045 258043 250042 240042 236046 235053 238060 242064
      252071 257076 262082 267086 273090 277095 278098 278102
      275108 272109 269109 253103 247100 240096 232090 224086
 0.25 523262 521259 520256 518254 515253 514254 512255 511260
      510265 509270 508275 509278 508283 507285 506290 506292
      509296 512295
 0.25 532205 532203 532200 532198 532197 532195 531193 529193
      528193 527193 526196 526198 526201 527202 528204 528205
      529207 531208 532205
 0.25 420773 419768 417764 411759 405755 401753 397756 394763
      389771 385777 379783 375790 372797 370801 371804 374808
      376812 381818 388822 392828 399832 404826 408817 412810
      415801 417792 420783 419776 420773
 0.25 410721 410714 409707 406697 402684 400679 398673 392667
      388666 383668 373673 365678 352689 337701 330707 323712
      314718 309724 298737 293744 287753 285769 285775 286781
      288789 293795 297797 302797 306798 311795 318789 329777
      341763 347757 353752 362746 371742 376741 380742 385748
      390750 393750 398748 401748 402745 407734 409726 410721
 0.25 373849 372844 368842 365844 362847 360852 360854 362860
      364864 366868 368869 370864 371858 372853 373849
 0.25 362825 361821 359823 358826 356828 354830 353834 352837
      353842 354841 356839 357837 359834 360830 361827 362825
 0.25 332153 331143 325131 319123 316120 311117 300113 295114
      290118 290123 291128 292134 292138 290139 279134 274132
      268132 260137 250142 248145 252148 259150 266151 277151
      282150 288148 292146 298146 306147 312149 319155 325163
      329163 331159 332153
 0.25 287818 287816 286815 284816 283817 283818 282819 281820
      281821 280823 281825 282826 283825 284825 285823 286821
      287819 287818
 0.25 274075 274074 274073 273072 271071 269070 267069 266068
      264067 263068 263070 264070 265072 267074 268074 269075
      270075 272076 274075 274075
 0.25 237117 236115 235115 234114 232114 230115 229116 228118
      229120 229121 231122 233122 235121 237119 237118 237117
 0.50 518276 517275 516275 515276 515277 514280 515280 516281
      517281
 0.50 402715 402711 402706 399699 396691 392684 388679 384676
      380676 376677 370681 360688 349697 329714 321723 317729
      314735 310746 307753 306759 309766 313771 315773 320773
      325769 331766 336763 346754 356746 369740 381734 394731
      398728 400724 402715
 0.50 409775 407771 405769 403769 400769 398771 396773 395775
      393778 393782 393787 395789 398789 400788 403787 404784
      406780 407778 409775
 0.50 312137 311135 309132 307131 306128 304126 302124 299124
      298126 298128 300131 301133 304136 306138 308139 311139
      312137
 1.00 383720 383714 382710 377704 371702 367701 362703 356706
      350711 339721 337723 336726 338734 328744 328749 330751
      339749 345748 352745 363737 371734 377730 382725 383720

$$




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