Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270541
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST/NM
~~~~~~~~~~~~
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM
AND AZ AS MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.  USED A COMBINATION
OF 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST, FOR THE 06Z WPC QPF.


MT/WY
~~~~~
A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT, INTERACTING
WITH A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE RESPECTABLE, CLOSE TO 1", WHICH SUPPORTS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HERE TO
ADJUST 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.


CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE REMAINS OF AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED MCV
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NE BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER
NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LURE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5" INTO THE REGION, WITH
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF ~ 20 KTS.  MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2000 J/KG
OVERNIGHT, AND COULD RISE TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL MAXIMA IN THE
3-5" RANGE BETWEEN SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI, WHICH IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS ATMOSPHERIC REGIME.  ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF WERE MADE,
WHICH RESEMBLES A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
QPF GUIDANCE.  A SEE TEXT/MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA
IS PLANNED FOR PORTIONS OF WI AND SOUTHEAST MN.


LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A MODERATELY STRONG CIRCULATION AT 850 HPA LIFTS UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT, IN THE 2.25-2.5" RANGE.  LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA AND MS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPE VALUES
RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG COULD CAUSE ISSUES.  THE DEEP
LAYERED FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY DEEPLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEAR AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  INCREASED AMOUNTS HERE PER THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT SHIFTED THEIR MAXIMUM INTO
NORTHWEST MS.  THE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL 3-5" AMOUNTS WHICH
SHOULD CHALLENGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND EASTERN LA WHERE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS ARE SATURATING SOILS.  THE QPF PATTERN HERE IS ESSENTIALLY A
COMPROMISE OF 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z NAM, WHICH FIT
THE 18Z-00Z GFS MASS FIELDS RATHER WELL.  PLAN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION, WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING PERIOD.


PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POOLED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2" ALONG WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG) AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (~20 KTS)
COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION AGAIN DURING DAYTIME HEATING.  CELL
TRAINING AND MERGERS ARE CONSIDERED THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE ADVERTISED IN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
HERE WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED ISSUES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  A
SEE TEXT/MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA IS PLANNED FOR
THE REGION.  SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM THE 00Z WPC QPF
CONTINUITY IN THIS AREA, WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 540173 537163 538158 541152 543138 541134 538130 525118
      518109 514101 512097 509089 507078 504070 501059 500054
      497049 492040 489036 486032 483024 479014 473006 467997
      464995 462990 466963 468950 469937 470924 470917 470915
      468901 467885 466869 463858 461851 459844 456835 449812
      445802 443796 440793 435787 433789 428790 426794 425801
      423807 421811 421827 420839 418851 418858 417863 415885
      412897 408907 399924 396928 395930 391934 391923 391917
      391892 392887 392879 392872 393868 395812 395787 395777
      393772 394768 393754 392747 390742 385733 380724 375718
      370717 368715 365714 360715 357717 355723 345739 340748
      334756 329763 324769 319776 316779 316783 315794 315801
      318806 316810 311813 300813 283807 267802 263800 259800
      250804 245811 243815 244821 247825 250827 255828 261827
      265826 269828 272830 276832 293837 295843 294847 295852
      298855 300860 299865 294875 291883 287891 279909 275918
      273923 273930 271941 271954 273962 273974 275979 275985
      269992 265994 259994 250997 240997 240003 240008 246016
      249023 246035 241034 239035 236044 232055 232061 231073
      232096 233100 236103 240106 245107 255110 266112 272113
      275115 282122 294134 297137 303138 306135 309133 316141
      318144 325146 333143 337143 338137 339130 341126 342115
      341104 342091 347083 347079 345075 344072 345069 349067
      353064 354068 353072 352075 356074 358071 362070 365067
      370067 374071 375076 379076 380073 383072 390073 392071
      405061 413057 417057 421060 428064 431066 431070
 0.01 431070 426072 427075 431076 434079 435083 437086 436090
      429089 431097 434097 437096 443099 447106 450113 456125
      463139 471151 474158 477166 480173 482181 482186 484195
      483201 481204 479208 481211 487213 491214 493217 497225
      500230 506245 508246 511243 516238 518236 517233 515225
      510209 519199 524197 530194 533190 535182 538175 540173
 0.01 497657 496652 494649 492646 490646 482656 464677 445716
      444732 443752 444763 445768 447771 449775 450780 451782
      455787 457789 461788 464787 465784 468777 472763 474754
      476747 485717 491703 493696 495689 495679 497671 497657
 0.01 437011 434007 431002 427997 424992 422989 419989 417994
      413001 411005 413012 414015 416017 422015 428015 434013
      437011
 0.01 375189 375188 373187 372186 371185 370184 368183 368182
      366182 365181 363181 361180 360181 359183 361184 362185
      364185 366187 367188 369188 371189 373189 374189 375189
 0.01 360029 367037 377036 380032 372022 367017 365009 358994
      353992 348992 339992 326001 315011 303020 297024 294027
      293032 277031 272031 275034 279040 280045 278048 278054
      280057 286062 292067 303077 312079 316080 320080 322079
      323076 324072 322071 321066 308056 302051 298046 324031
      333031 336030 341030 352030 355027 360029
 0.01 345173 345169 343168 339167 336166 334164 331163 327163
      325165 328168 330169 333171 335172 338174 340175 342175
      345173
 0.01 349789 350782 348776 342783 339791 334798 331802 327804
      322810 317817 314822 311824 309829 308833 309846 309852
      311856 313862 315864 318865 320864 322861 327854 334848
      339841 343834 346825 349802 350794 349789
 0.25 525171 524165 523161 519154 514148 510144 504139 498133
      495125 493117 493107 493094 492084 491073 488055 485047
      482039 480036 476034 470031 467031 465034 464045 466054
      466059 465063 463073 464082 466090 466096 465102 468107
      474110 476113 477117 477122 476128 478130 484136 494168
      498175 503179 507181 511181 516179 521175 525171
 0.25 484700 483695 483692 481693 479696 478699 476702 475705
      475708 475711 478709 480707 481706 483703 484700
 0.25 478686 478684 476683 476681 474686 475690 476692 476689
      477688 478686
 0.25 460915 460898 458880 455867 453859 451853 446840 442836
      439835 436836 433842 432848 431862 430871 428877 425889
      416913 414927 410939 407945 404949 400952 397953 393953
      384947 380943 378937 377928 379922 382910 386883 387867
      387849 387832 387816 388803 388786 382757 378751 375748
      371743 366744 362747 359751 356756 357764 359777 359784
      361792 361797 359803 356814 353828 351835 351842 349855
      347861 344866 336874 328880 318886 313889 309887 307882
      306875 306869 303871 298881 294892 291903 286914 282923
      278936 277942 277949 277964 279972 283975 293971 302965
      310960 314957 319960 324964 327968 330972 334975 339976
      343973 346969 350964 353967 360968 365969 369972 376982
      382990 385995 386001 387004 389004 394004 399993 405984
      408979 412975 416972 421969 425965 429962 445951 453943
      457939 459932 460915
 0.25 455074 455069 454066 450062 447056 448051 447043 445037
      443035 440034 433034 426033 420034 414036 417042 421046
      427049 436054 438057 438062 440069 443074 447077 449079
      453078 455074
 0.25 361056 362054 361052 360051 358050 356051 355053 354055
      355058 356058 357058 358058 359058 361056 361056
 0.25 333079 334077 332076 331076 329077 329078 328079 329079
      330081 332080 333079
 0.25 336058 336056 334054 332053 330054 329054 327055 325057
      326059 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
 0.25 302091 302086 299083 292079 276071 269066 265058 261050
      259047 255045 251044 247045 241052 238059 239070 239076
      237081 237087 238093 243094 249093 254095 258096 271106
      277107 282108 291107 294105 297101 298097 301093 302091
 0.25 308985 308982 306981 301982 297986 293991 288001 284005
      280005 276003 271001 266003 262004 261007 262013 267016
      272018 283020 288016 290010 298002 304993 308985
 0.25 293822 292821 291820 290820 288819 287818 286818 285818
      283818 281818 279819 280821 281822 283823 285823 287824
      289824 291824 292823 293822
 0.50 501150 501147 500144 498141 496138 494136 493133 492129
      490127 489126 488131 488136 489139 489144 490147 493150
      496150 499150 501150
 0.50 483085 483080 483077 484072 483067 482065 481062 479059
      477059 476062 476066 476069 477074 478077 480079 481082
      483085 483085
 0.50 455913 455902 454894 450877 447869 444863 440861 438868
      435885 432902 429919 432925 433933 435942 438944 442943
      452935 454929 455918 455913
 0.50 446072 446070 445069 443067 441069 443071 444072 445073
      446072
 0.50 443041 443040 443038 441037 440037 438037 437038 437040
      438041 439042 441043 443041 443041
 0.50 414963 415958 414954 411954 408956 403961 400964 396965
      392964 387965 386968 386971 389977 392981 394982 397981
      400978 404973 410968 414963
 0.50 383823 383814 383805 381796 382787 380780 378773 377765
      374758 371754 366752 362755 360762 363776 367780 369782
      370786 370795 367799 365804 363811 362816 362825 364843
      363850 361856 355865 347874 340880 321893 313899 305900
      300902 297906 294912 290922 287928 285935 283947 281962
      281967 283966 285964 290955 297954 301950 310945 317943
      324944 330946 333947 336945 343936 349928 356920 365912
      373906 376900 378894 380880 381873 381864 381848 382834
      383823
 0.50 331057 330057 328056 327057 328058 330058 331057
 0.50 297090 295088 292086 284083 272077 265072 262067 259061
      254056 251054 248054 242059 242066 243074 241081 239085
      240089 245090 250090 254091 267098 274101 281099 294094
      297090
 1.00 369882 369876 367872 362873 359874 347884 334893 328898
      322903 314906 307909 302915 306921 310923 315924 323925
      333925 339921 351910 356904 360898 368884 369882
 1.00 267083 265078 260074 258072 255073 256075 251071 250077
      246080 249085 255085 257083 257080 259080 264083 267083
 1.50 359887 358885 356885 352887 345893 340897 333902 326907
      322909 319913 321915 324917 335915 338913 340909 346902
      351897 357890 359887
$$





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