Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 02/0000 UTC THRU JUL 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...FROM NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATL...

THE BROAD MEAN UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
WILL KEEP INTACT THE ACTIVE NWRLY FLOW REGIME... IDEAL FOR
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND HEAVY RAIN. MULTIPLE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
HEAVY RAINS. THE GUIDANCE OVERALL SLIDE THIS FEATURE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT BEFORE PRESSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATL REGION THURS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ON THE
HEELS OF THIS SHEAR AXIS IS ANOTHER IMPULSE UP NEAR ERN NE/WRN IA.
THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SSE AND INTERACT WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT... POOLING 2 INCH PWS AND A LIKELY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
ACROSS MO. ANOTHER MCS IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH KY/TN AND ARRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY THURS EVENING. FINALLY A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR SRN ALBERTA/EASTERN MT WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO HELP RE-ENFORCE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SUBSTANTIAL IN
THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO NE/KS. FOR THE MOST PART THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
HI-RES SUITE HAS THIS MASS FIELD/SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN DOWN BUT
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND THEN VARY ON
QPF. WPC STARTED OFF WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST/SRN
MID-ATL STATES... THEN PREFERRED THE ORIENTATION OF THE NAM/ECMWF
WITH THE ACTIVITY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AS GFS
APPEARS TO DEEP ON THE POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE AND NORTH WITH QPF
OVER THE OH VALLEY. FINALLY WPC PREFERRED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF
THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PLAINS.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH THE CENTER OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE FOR ANOTHER DAY. ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX FROM MEXICO WITH AN EXTENDED SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
CONTINUES TO CUT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL DO SO ON THURS...
THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR STRETCH FROM
AZ UP INTO CA/NV. MEANWHILE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
HAS PENETRATED THE RIDGE CENTER AND IS POOLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BUT A SHORT WAVE OVER THE ERN PAC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THURS EVENING AND
COULD EXPAND THE COVERAGE FROM NWRN MT TO CO. WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE DATA.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER


24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 556122 551121 547118 537115 533114 532109 538103 541099
      543093 543082 542075 539070 537067 535070 534075 532080
      529084 525089 522091 518090 511087 505082 500072 497069
      492069 491066 489066 486070 480071 477075 477079 478085
      475094 466092 469088 466085 464082 462082 457082 451074
      451080 447081 444079 441080 438083 439086 444089 447087
      452091 455096 456101 446099 441101 438097 434098 431098
      429096 426093 419086 415077 412080 408082 403079 399078
      400085 399088 401097 397097 397100 399101 400104 397106
      394101 390099 386095 381096 379101 379105 380107 380110
      382112 385115 388116 390121 391123 388125 394134 397136
      401136 399141 400146 406152 405160 404164 408172 409178
      407179 406184 407190 407192 410193 414191 417185 419182
      419190 419194 417198 415202 414209 418215 417225 421228
      420233 411232 407232 404232 404229 407227 410222 409217
      404217 400215 397212 392211 388211 385214 384214 379212
      372207 368208 365205 362203 362197 364193 359191 356188
      352188 350194 351199 349201 346200 345189 343182 340177
      336178 334174 332169 326168 324165 313162 307160 305156
      306153 309152 315153 323158 326162 331164 336163 337159
      341157 345162 345167 348171 349172 352167 352161 347159
      345151 345142 343139 340138 340141 340145 338150 336148
      337144 333140 327139 324137 323133 322128 321124 318123
      313122 309119 307117 305119 302123 298121 296117 293110
      287108 285105 282096 279089 277085 274082 268077 264071
      262065 261060 261055 263051 268052 276057 278061 283062
      293064 295068 296073 302080 306090 308094 313096 315100
      316105 313109 309111 307110 305112 307115 315119 315113
      324113 327113 329116 331120 334121 336117 334114 332110
      326103 321097 316094 319093 324095 327093 326090 326085
      322082 328075 331075 330070 332061 321061 319059 322056
      324052 325050 327050 333050 334048 334044 338039 337035
      338032 340019 343008 350003 353003 355000 357997 357991
      353990 350985 350979 350975 348974 346978 346982 346989
      348994 347999 342997 339986 339982 341978 341963 341943
      345936 346932 347925 345918 347910 345903 342899
 0.01 342899 337896 333898 331893 333889 332884 329885 329889
      327888 326883 323878 319875 315872 309871 306872 303877
      299871 295857 296848 295844 296838 294834 293826 289823
      286824 284826 282831 279834 272839 270841 267842 262841
      258838 259833 262828 261824 253811 256806 262805 265794
      270787 277782 296771 302763 307755 313747 320739 328733
      339730 348724 352720 357718 370703 375693 377688 379683
      386664 392646
 0.01 562090 560087 561084 561082 562079 563076 563074 563071
 0.01 565896 558894 552889 550886 548882 543876 540874 535874
      532877 529877 515874 509874 503878 497868 492871 486878
      483882 482885 480892 478897 476902 471908 470910 470916
      467922 467927 469930 472933 475933 478936 482937 488933
      489935 490941 490954 491960 492965 494973 498980 498994
      498999 500003 501009 507014 512016 512022 511027 510034
      513035 515038 519036 522039 524043 523050 521054 519054
      517052 515048 510042 507045 506049 508053 509054 508058
      504057 501057 498054 494049 493046 495043 499041 502042
      504037 504031 503026 500018 498015 496019 493023 491025
      489023 488020 487014 486009 485005 485002 487001 488002
      490002 492999 495992 497981 494977 491975 488977 484979
      481979 477979 472978 467974 464969 462967 456961 445950
      435940 430935 424935 416935 415932 415927 414917 411910
      403896 402885 402881 401878 402867 401857 401847 398837
      398831 398826 396822 395816 392807 392802 394799 397798
      399795 403789 405792 406796 407804 408810 410808 409798
      408780 392782 392770 396763 399755 400752 400746 403727
      410712 414699 417690 418686 417681 418677 418672 418667
      419664 422661 427659 436657 440658 442662 445666 445670
      446705 446709 445712 440712 435709 436701 437697 436692
      433693 431696 427701 422706 419711 415717 414722 414727
      420723 425718 427719 431716 434715 435719 433721 433723
      436723 440723 441726 439731 445732 446738 442740 440741
      438744 436748 434749 437758 443759 445757 445751 450743
      451733 454732 455738 457749 466764 470770 475775 482779
      486779 489780 498779 506777 517771 529766 545753
 0.01 499618 493623 485627 477630 473635 466636 458639 450642
      446641 443642 434644 426647 421649 415646 409640
 0.01 548033 548026 546023 541018 535014 531009 526003 523000
      521004 526010 526015 524020 526023 528023 530024 536027
      542033 547036 548033
 0.01 528183 529173 528167 526160 524155 521151 516148 512144
      507143 501142 496146 502155 506160 504166 503175 501181
      503186 506187 513180 518189 523188 526185 528183
 0.01 491134 489132 488129 486128 485126 483124 482124 480125
      478127 478129 479132 481135 482136 484138 485139 487139
      489137 491134
 0.01 477957 477953 476949 474947 473944 472942 471939 467939
      467942 467944 469949 469952 471954 472957 474959 476959
      477957
 0.01 450068 451066 450063 450061 449058 447057 446058 446060
      446063 445065 447068 448070 450068 450068
 0.01 429788 428788 429788 429788
 0.01 418825 418823 416821 416820 415819 414819 413821 413823
      413826 415828 417828 418825 418825
 0.01 415940 414939 412938 411940 412942 414942 415940
 0.01 380090 382088 382085 381084 379084 377085 375086 374087
      374089 375091 376091 378090 380090 380090
 0.01 369145 368142 366140 364140 362141 364143 364144 366145
      367146 369145
 0.01 370136 369133 369132 367133 367135 368137 370136
 0.01 341206 341204 342201 342199 341197 340197 339196 338198
      338201 337203 337205 339206 341206 341206
 0.01 339128 339126 339124 339123 337122 337124 336126 335128
      335130 336132 338130 339128
 0.01 339908 337903 331900 328898 324894 322892 318892 320894
      322896 320898 319900 317903 321907 327909 330909 333911
      337910 339908
 0.01 310801 308799 305798 303798 299797 296798 294799 290801
      289801 290801 294802 296803 300804 303803 307803 310801
 0.01 298006 298002 297998 297989 301983 300980 298980 295981
      290985 282985 280983 279986 281989 285991 290991 291999
      291005 293008 296008 298006
 0.01 297895 296893 293893 287893 287898 286900 284902 284906
      282908 282912 283918 284923 286922 290922 292920 293916
      291910 291904 289901 288899 289898 293897 295895 297895
 0.01 231975 232979 231983 231991 230000 231008 236021 241026
      246030 252033 259036 261037 265038 270036 278024 287018
      286015 281014 278017 276015 273009 271007 267006 268994
      263990 261988 257987 252986 254984 257981 259982 267984
      270982 273982 286979 288976 285973 277972 268972 266970
      265966 270962 269956 265949 257948 251946 245944 240945
      238947 234952 232957 230965
 0.01 252788 252781 250778 246776 242776 239775 236777 235780
      235784 237790 240792 244793 247792 251790 252788
 0.01 243841 240835 237832 238825 237818 235811 236806 237796
      234792 230790 230788 226787 223789 219800 221815 225829
      224836 223843 228846 234846 240845 243841
 0.25 543745 528757 519763 509766 500768 491767 483764 478757
      475751 474745 474735 465715 465711 467705 473698 476694
      476687 476679 473672 472667 475662 481655 490649 494640
      498632 503626
 0.25 567969 567955 566946 565936 563927 562924 558924 554929
      552937 551941 549942 545936 544930 545924 545913 544907
      542904 538899 533900 528902 523902 511908 507911 504918
      502922 502928 504939 506946 510950 513953 517953 522950
      524948 527948 529951 529954 528957 524962 522972 523978
      524980 526982 529981 535984 540985 542988 543992 543998
      545999 552000 558997 562992 564985 567969
 0.25 467991 462977 459970 454966 449964 447964 445966 439969
      435969 433967 429966 425967 423971 417971 413968 408959
      399952 392919 391911 391908 393905 389891 386863 385856
      385851 386847 388844 385824 388800 385783 390765 392750
      394737 398726 399718 396714 384720 376722 373724 372727
      371743 371748 374747 377745 380745 379753 377760 373761
      371759 368757 364759 361763 359766 359770 361776 357790
      349800 350806 355812 358816 358820 355823 350825 345818
      340820 339822 338827 338830 335832 334824 334821 335819
      336816 334813 329811 327805 328797 328794 326795 324802
      322809 321812 322816 321821 318825 313823 311830 310835
      311838 316839 317856 321862 326866 331868 334870 335874
      340878 344882 349894 351898 352903 353912 354919 355927
      356934 356943 355955 358957 360955 365951 370946 373945
      377947 382949 388951 391952 393955 395963 398968 404970
      408973 409975 407976 400974 397975 395977 395987 396993
      398997 397000 390001 391009 395013 400012 403014 405022
      404027 405031 409031 418038 423040 427037 431023 432020
      430020 428023 427021 425019 422013 417007 417001 420994
      432992 437996 438998 438003 437008 440007 441005 441000
      443998 444000 446002 449004 451003 455000 456005 457010
      459008 464999 467991
 0.25 446072 445071 444070 443069 441068 440069 441071 442072
      443073 445074 446072
 0.25 417992 417991 416989 415988 414989 413989 412991 413992
      415992 417992 417992
 0.25 397703 398700 397698 396698 394697 392698 392699 391700
      391702 391704 392705 393706 394706 395706 395705 397704
      397703
 0.25 407924 408919 407916 405913 403910 401908 399907 396906
      396909 398913 399915 401917 402919 403923 405926 407924
 0.25 385196 385194 383193 381193 380194 381195 382197 384197
      385196
 0.25 390052 388051 388052 390053 390052
 0.25 383779 383777 382776 380775 379776 378778 377779 377780
      377783 377785 378786 379784 380784 381782 382782 383780
      383779
 0.25 374189 373187 371186 370185 368184 366183 364184 364185
      365187 366187 367188 369189 371189 373190 374189
 0.25 385049 383048 382047 381046 380045 378045 376044 375046
      374048 374049 373050 374052 374053 375054 376055 377056
      379057 381058 382057 383056 384054 384051 385050 385049
 0.25 376078 377073 377069 376067 375064 371062 370061 366061
      365063 368065 369067 371068 373071 374075 376078 376078
 0.25 367730 364726 358727 354732 351737 348743 346747 347751
      349751 354750 359747 363742 365735 367730
 0.25 367052 365051 363050 361051 360051 359052 358053 357053
      356056 357057 359056 360056 361055 363056 365055 366054
      367053 367052
 0.25 356120 356117 354115 351113 349112 346110 344109 344110
      345114 347115 349117 349121 352123 354122 356120
 0.25 357972 357970 357969 355968 354969 354971 354974 355975
      357974 357972 357972
 0.25 353016 352013 351013 349016 347020 347024 347028 347033
      349033 350031 350027 350024 351022 352018 353016
 0.25 339758 339757 338756 337755 336754 334753 334752 332751
      331751 329752 329753 327754 327755 327757 327760 328760
      330761 332763 333763 334763 335761 336760 337759 339758
      339758
 0.25 342100 342098 342096 341093 340092 340091 339089 337089
      336091 335093 335095 335097 336098 337100 338100 339101
      341101 342100
 0.25 336086 335085 335084 334082 333084 333086 333087 335087
      336086
 0.25 319765 319763 317762 316763 316764 315766 316768 318767
      319765
 0.25 258018 257012 255006 253002 247000 242001 238004 238009
      240016 243020 248023 252023 255022 258018
 0.25 254962 252959 249958 246956 241957 239957 238959 239963
      239967 243968 246966 248966 252965 252962 254963 254962
 0.50 507633 500640 497647 493657 487662 483664 485668 486675
      486679 484689 484700 484707 486711 486722 486726 486729
      483733 480741 480746 481751 486758 492762 499763 508762
      517759 530751 541741
 0.50 541931 541925 542920 542914 540910 539907 537906 534907
      533910 532912 531918 532923 533926 534931 535933 538935
      540933 541931
 0.50 517659 516661 516662 515664 516665 517666 518667 519668
      520668
 0.50 475715 474713 473712 473713 472715 472716 474715 475715
      475715
 0.50 463986 461984 459981 458979 457974 455971 453974 454978
      453979 452983 453988 455990 458990 461989 463986
 0.50 429985 428984 427982 426981 424980 422978 421977 419977
      418978 418980 419981 420982 421984 422985 424986 426986
      428986 429985
 0.50 423032 423027 422025 421022 420019 418017 416015 413015
      414017 416020 417024 417029 418031 419034 421033 423032
 0.50 401959 401956 400955 399954 398953 396953 395954 396956
      396958 398959 400960 401959
 0.50 386754 386751 385750 383751 383752 382753 381754 381757
      382758 384757 385756 385755 386754
 0.50 393943 394939 393936 389935 389921 388907 386897 385891
      384885 384875 383870 382865 380862 378855 377840 380835
      380830 384811 385805 384801 383793 381794 379798 377796
      372795 370794 367793 366799 365804 363809 362813 361820
      359828 356831 351832 344838 339840 337841 333839 332837
      330837 330841 332844 332847 331854 331858 333862 337869
      344873 348883 353890 356897 356914 360927 358937 359942
      361945 364943 366938 368937 371937 374940 380945 389944
      393943
 0.50 378766 378765 376766 375767 374769 374772 375773 376771
      377769 378767 378766
 0.50 375781 375778 375776 374774 373773 372774 371775 371777
      371779 371781 372783 372784 374783 375781
 0.50 369770 368768 367766 367765 365765 363767 363769 364771
      364772 365773 366775 367773 368772 369770
 0.50 368782 367779 367777 366775 364777 364778 363780 362783
      362785 362787 362788 363789 364791 366790 366789 366786
      367784 368782
 0.50 340096 339093 338092 337093 337095 338097 340096 340096
 0.50 325816 325814 325812 324811 324812 324814 324816 325817
      325816
 1.00 530701 526706 521708 516708 514712 506722 502728 497731
      488738 487744 489749 491753 493754 498756 504757 510756
      515754 519750 530745 539736 540734
 1.00 507653 506650 503651 501653 500657 499660 497662 496666
      496670 497674 499676 501677 503675 504673 505670 506665
      505660 506657 507653
 1.00 386929 386924 384922 384918 385915 385913 382912 383906
      384903 384898 382890 381882 379875 375868 372861 370844
      371827 374812 369808 367810 367814 364829 360844 361849
      357854 357859 353859 351863 351867 352874 352880 360888
      364896 368896 370899 361904 359911 360916 362918 367922
      370928 374933 379937 383933 386929
 1.00 377810 376810 375810 374810 375810 376810 377810
 1.00 355841 354839 353839 352839 350840 348842 347843 345844
      346847 347848 348849 349849 349848 350848 351846 352845
      354844 354843 355841
 1.00 339858 339856 338855 337854 336853 336854 335856 335858
      336860 337861 338860 338859 339858
 1.50 535716 533717 531719 528721 526723 524725 522728 520729
      519734 521738 523739 526740 528740 530740 532737 534736
      537733 538730 539729
 1.50 504749 503746 502745 501744 500743 499742 498742 497744
      497745 497747 497748 499749 500749 501750 503750 504749
 1.50 384929 383925 380922 377916 377910 379907 382900 379895
      376904 373909 367909 366915 368919 371925 377931 380932
      382931 384929
 1.50 377884 374878 373871 371864 368858 367855 363855 360855
      361861 362867 364872 364876 362883 363887 364889 365892
      367889 372889 377884
 1.50 368840 368838 368835 368833 368831 368829 367828 366829
      366831 367833 367836 366838 366840 368840 368840
 1.50 367845 367842 366840 366842 366845 367845
 2.00 380929 382927 380926 380925 378923 378922 377921 375920
      375919 374918 373918 371917 370918 371920 371921 373923
      375924 375925 376927 377927 378929 379930 380929 380929
 2.00 372880 372878 372876 371873 371871 371869 370867 369865
      368863 366865 366866 366867 366869 366871 366874 366876
      366878 366880 367881 367883 368884 370884 372882 372880

$$




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