Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 080636
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EST FRI DEC 08 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 08/1200 UTC THRU DEC 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

THE EJECTION OF AN INITIAL POS TILTED UPPER TROF ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SAT
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RATHER WIDE SWATH OVERRUNNING
PCPN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION SPREADING THOUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLC REGION BY SAT MORNING. THE UNSEASONABLY LOW LATITUDE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME UNSEASONABLY EARLY SEASON SNOWS ALONG THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE PCPN SHIELD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION THAT WILL SPREAD
NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SRN APLCNS INTO NRN VA/SRN MD. SEE
QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE...MODEL
DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
AND EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH S/WV ENERGY DIVING SEWD ACRS THE NRN
GT LAKES.  THE NAM REMAINS A SLOWER OUTLIER SOLN ..WHILE THE
GFS..UKMET AND 12Z EC ARE A BIT QUICKER AHEAD OF THE MORE NRN
STREAM ENERGY.  IN FACT..RECENT TRENDS OF THE THE UKMET AND GFS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL NW TREND OF THE PCPN ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM.  WHILE THIS TREND HAS
BEEN GENLY ACCEPTED HAVE TAKEN A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE APCH IN
BLENDING CONTINUITY WITH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MID
ATLC REGION TO AVOID ANY WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECT AS SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE AMPLITUDE OR TIMING OF EITHER THE NRN STREAM OR SRN STREAM
IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN FURTHER SHIFTS IN THE QPF.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED FROM GA NEWD INTO SE VA AS STRENGTHENING RT ENTRANCE
REGION JET OVER THAT REGION NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STG
BROAD SCALE ASCENT EVEN WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY.  WIDESPREAD 1 TO
LOCAL 2 INCH RAINS AREA EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
LONG DURATION OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAINS.  ACRS FL...THE
WITH APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS FRI NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
SWLY 85H FLOW AND PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 2" ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACRS THE CNTL
PENINSULA AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES EWD ACRS THE STATE BY
SAT MRNG.  GIVEN THE DEEP LAYERED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT SHEER...SOME TRAINING LINE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR THAT MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.  WHILE
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY HERE...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES IN USUAL SLOW DRAINING AREAS.

GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...

WHILE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS GENLY AGREE ON
DROPPING A CLIPPER SYSTEM SEWD ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT SNOWS
FOLLOWED BY MORE GENERAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
VERY STG COLD ADVECTION IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW LEADING
TO STG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 85H TEMPS DROP TO -18 OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY SAT MRNG. MODELS GENLY SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT HERE AND
SO CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY WERE RELATIVELY MINOR.  FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS..PLEASE SEE QPFHSD.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 483338 492326 501314 505308 508296 507292 505288 500282
      498281 495282 489284 482285 476287 464292 452296 439299
      432300 426301 419302 413304 410307 406308
 0.01 547944 547937 546933 543924 537921 529920 525920 521918
      514915 509916 505913 500906 486901 483899 481898 480895
      482884 483880 484873 483866 482859 480854 478851 473843
      471839 472835 474827 476817 476812 475807 474799 476794
      479787 487768 487764 488764 491765 498766 502765 504761
      506751 507740 506732 505725 501715 498712 495711 487714
      484715 481718 476724 472733 469740 466750 461760 460763
      459770 456776 451782 447790 442798 435804 429809 418823
      413828 410834 399846 394851 389858 387863 387869 393876
      397883 399890 403899 405903 408903 413905 415907 417912
      420914 427920 429924 431928 455942 460949 464957 469964
      474964 477967 486967 490967 494969 500972 504975 507976
      511978 516978 520978 522976 525971 528968 534963 542955
      546949 547944
 0.01 473695 471693 469694 463700 459701 458704 454710 457717
      456720 454723 447727 454726 458724 460721 463713 468707
      472701 473695
 0.01 442647 441642 439641 435639 429640 424640 419639 412642
      402649 398653 394658 386668 376680 369689 353705 337722
      318740 310748 298756 290761 278763 270761 264764 258764
      245767 237769 234774 235780 239780 242781 255783 261785
      264785 263788 256796 247804 239810 229818 222827 221829
      221834 222842 227855 230860 233865 233873 236877 245884
      249886 252892 256905 258913 259921 257927 253932 249936
      244938 241941 237946 235950 233956 232964 233973 234979
      234986 234002 238015 241020 248024 253026 259027 265017
      267012 266006 266998 270993 275983 283971 288960 294950
      303939 314921 321911 326901 349852 356844 362834 367824
      369822 369817 372812 377807 380801 386790 392778 394771
      396763 404740 409729 411723 415717 418712 421703 425690
      436666 437661 440656 442647
 0.01 452752 449751 450746 447741 445744 443749 441752 438752
      434746 433751 435756 437760 438765 439777 444771 448763
      451755 452752
 0.01 433785 431782 427784 425789 424794 422799 421804 420808
      423811 424808 427804 429800 431795 432790 433785
 0.25 502299 501293 499291 496290 488295 481300 473305 465309
      457314 457317 461322 471322 479321 487316 494311 498308
      501301 502299
 0.25 472892 472887 471884 468885 467888 466890 465895 465898
      465903 465905 469907 470902 471900 471895 472892
 0.25 472873 471868 471863 470860 468857 467854 465851 464856
      463859 462864 463868 464873 466876 467878 469878 470875
      472873
 0.25 466789 465785 460784 456785 452789 449798 445806 443810
      444815 452816 454822 455828 457834 459830 459823 460817
      461805 465795 466789
 0.25 455847 455842 452843 448850 448854 445857 441858 436856
      431853 424856 421859 421865 423869 426870 435869 442867
      447862 451855 454848 455847
 0.25 421661 419657 415657 408662 394675 369707 357719 351725
      342730 335736 329743 315757 304770 300773 295775 292778
      289781 284789 278796 275799 270802 261807 246815 239821
      235829 234833 234840 235846 237850 250865 257870 261872
      261876 262884 264897 266908 268912 272915 272921 270925
      265934 252944 245950 243953 241958 244963 248966 257970
      263970 266967 268957 272948 276941 285926 291919 295916
      299914 303911 307908 313901 325887 327884 328878 332870
      343852 353837 358829 362821 366812 369802 373791 378783
      382774 386763 392746 396736 400728 404719 408709 411698
      416687 419673 421667 421661
 0.25 252006 252004 252002 251000 251999 250998 249997 247996
      246997 244998 242000 242001 242002 242004 242006 243008
      245009 247009 249008 251007 252006
 0.50 457793 457791 456789 454791 453794 453795 452796 452799
      453800 455799 455798 456796 456795 457793
 0.50 406682 405679 402677 396681 386692 376705 364716 356726
      345737 340743 337745 332748 322758 313768 306782 295794
      289798 283802 270808 262811 256815 250819 245825 240831
      238840 239843 241845 246850 257858 264863 266865 267870
      267880 267883 269880 275876 280872 284866 287859 294854
      298854 297858 293865 289870 286876 283884 285889 288891
      294889 300885 305880 315867 320862 325858 330854 336850
      348838 352832 355824 357816 360808 362802 366794 374780
      378773 381764 386750 392735 399719 402712 404702 406692
      406682
 0.50 257949 257947 254947 252948 250950 248952 246955 245958
      246960 248962 252962 254960 255958 256956 257952 257949
 1.00 388726 388721 387717 384711 380712 377714 373717 364728
      356738 343757 334767 330771 324775 318783 310792 303803
      299807 296807 296804 296802 292801 287804 276809 264815
      253822 249826 246830 244836 246840 248841 261842 264841
      266843 269844 269849 273853 277851 281848 286845 298837
      303834 308831 316822 321821 324819 325821 318833 312845
      309856 313855 317851 333833 340823 343818 346812 352801
      360790 366781 372770 378757 383745 386735 388726
 1.50 379739 377735 374736 368743 361747 356749 353753 341764
      336771 330778 325784 320791 321796 325795 328794 330797
      329801 329805 336802 343797 350790 356785 361778 366771
      370761 377744 379739
 1.50 301817 295816 290814 280812 270816 261821 254826 251831
      251836 254838 259837 269834 280834 286834 291833 294825
      301817
 2.00 361765 360763 357762 354764 352766 351768 349769 347772
      346774 345778 347781 349780 352778 354776 355775 357772
      359770 360767 361765
 2.00 287825 285824 283825 282823 281823 279823 278825 277826
      276827 276828 275830 274830 275830 276830 278830 280828
      282828 282827 283825 285825 287825
 2.00 269826 267826 265827 267828 269827 269826
 2.00 266829 265827 263828 262829 264830 265829 266829

$$





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