Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 041854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 05/0000 UTC THRU JUL 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES/MID-ATLANTIC...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY..ALONG WITH LESSER DEFINED UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH..WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOWER
HEIGHTS THRU THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES THIS PERIOD.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE NOW
IN THE VICINITY OF AR IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH
INTO THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPLACHIANS ON SUN.  LARGE SCALE LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...HOWERVER LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TN VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A COMBINATION OF
AMPLE INSTABILITY..DEEP MOISTURE..WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST..A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE TRAILING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
ATL...FOCUSING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.  THEN AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW..THIS FRONT WILL BE BEGIN RETURN TO THE NORTH..WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING TO THE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC.  WPC AMOUNTS RELIED HEAVILY OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE..ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD..INCORORATING
A BLEND OF THE GFS/00Z ECMWF NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT..ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/PWS..ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION..SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MOSTLY THRU PARTS OF NE AND
KS.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAIMED CLOSES TO THE HIGHER
RES QPFS HERE.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE..AND THUS KEPT
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE..BUT
AGAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...NORTHERN PLAINS-UPPER MIDWEST...

AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY SUN.  BY SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING...ORGRANIZING CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MN
BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS INCREASING PWS TO NEAR 2-INCHES ALONG BOUNDARY.

...WESTERN STATES...

SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES RIDGE THRU PARTS OF CA AND NV.. AND ALSO
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES..WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF
THE REGION TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE
WESTERN STATES.  WPC QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF REASONABLY
AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS AND CONTINUITY..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 540944 537933 533930 528930 524929 523924 525921 526916
      527909 528902 528895 527877 525875 522877 518878 513879
      504882 499884 495888 489895 483902 471916 465922 460929
      444967 441971 437972 428975 422979 417981 414979 405975
      398971 393969 387968 385965 386959 390942 391938 388935
      379929 371926 362922 359919 358914 357907 357900 357893
      358888 362877 366869 371862 376855 377850 379845 380838
      380831 381821 385808 389800 393793 393787 391783 389777
      386774 386770 389767 393763 391758 386750 380743 379738
      379732 382723 388714 392709 394705 400702 403699 407698
      412694 414691 417688 419683 420680 419672 420668 415664
      412661 407662 397660 394661 391665 380680 377682 376680
      373678 369686 363694 359702 354710 349717 339733 330748
      326755 322760 319763 313770 306776 297781 288784 282785
      279787 271791 263795 255800 253804 256807 257812 253814
      259818 265824 268827 271831 271833 268835 264837 261842
      262848 261852 262865 263869 264876 274890 286900 292908
      297914 306931 310934 314935 318944 321948 325950 328952
      332956 334960 337965 341973 343976 345973 349975 352979
      355983 357987 361995 365003 372008 381011 384015 386020
      386023 383025 376029 368034 358036 353037 349041 342047
      338049 332049 322048 317049 312049 309048 309046 311041
      310034 308030 303023 294024 290026 286024 270016 268014
      263014 258019 264025 272029 277032 280037 278042 279047
      280052 280054 277054 270057 264057 260059 248058 244064
      249071 252075 256077 263081 277091 280094 282098 283103
      286107 287112 290114 296120 303126 310131 329137 335130
      345132
 0.01 345132 350133 354135 363137 367133 365123 368120 370118
      372120 373125 373129 375128 378131 382131 385129 389127
      394128 396129 395132 393136 388143 381145 380148 382151
      384155 385160 385171 378175 372179 369181 364180 361182
      361185 368190 383201 394212 397215 401217 405219 406223
      404225 400225 397228 398232 406232 411231 414234 421234
      426228 430219 433210 427193 424185 423180 424173 428161
      427153 427131 433127 436125 441126 448130 454136 464149
      471146 474146 475150 478157 483164 491169 500171 504171
      507170 512163 514160 516161 521164 525165 528162 527157
      525154 521146 512131 507123 504114 502104 502092 502080
      501074 502070 501070 499066 499061 497050 496038 497032
      499029 508012 513005 517997 521990 525981 532963 540944
 0.01 486691 485684 483681 482676 480670 477666 470658 465656
      461656 452663 444671 441675 439681 439688 440697 442711
      442714 439716 438718 434720 438721 441724 443730 440733
      438736 438738 441744 441750 440755 437755 437760 441757
      444752 448749 450744 450739 452738 460731 464726 464719
      465715 467713 472711 476707 480702 484697 486691 486691
 0.01 387104 386103 384102 383100 381101 381103 381106 381108
      382109 383108 384108 385106 386106 387104
 0.25 527949 526944 521943 513945 512939 512934 513927 513918
      511905 510897 507894 503895 499898 493904 487911 482919
      477927 473937 470948 466958 463969 463976 464983 466987
      469989 472992 473999 474005 473012 469021 464030 460031
      455030 452027 449023 446021 442022 440025 444029 446032
      447037 444046 447049 451049 459044 466039 469036 473036
      479039 483037 486034 491027 496017 501008 506000 510992
      519973 524961 526954 527949
 0.25 502147 502138 500129 497113 494094 493087 488081 484077
      480077 478078 476088 475096 475105 477114 476125 477133
      479140 485145 488150 494155 499152 502147
 0.25 451102 452100 451099 450097 448096 446095 445095 443095
      443096 443097 444099 446101 448102 449103 451102 451102
 0.25 440007 439002 436999 433997 429996 421998 413000 408999
      406000 405997 404993 400991 389980 384974 381972 378973
      382990 385994 388995 391995 394996 397999 402999 404999
      405001 403003 401009 402014 406015 411016 427013 435011
      440007
 0.25 420112 419107 416102 413099 408100 405102 402106 400109
      398115 400120 402123 406123 409119 412116 415113 419112
      420112
 0.25 410073 410067 407063 400059 397057 393057 389059 386062
      380062 375062 371063 370068 371079 373083 377086 380088
      386088 393086 400083 404081 408079 410073
 0.25 375189 375188 373186 371186 373186 374189 375189
 0.25 383798 382792 380788 374783 371781 370783 370790 366792
      362790 362786 363780 367773 367761 367755 369751 371742
      372734 373722 372717 369713 365714 362717 354733 350740
      347748 345756 345767 344772 342775 338784 328796 323803
      320812 321815 325816 328818 330821 329823 324829 320837
      316844 312846 307846 294856 285855 281856 277858 274865
      275872 276875 281883 287889 306913 314930 319938 325942
      327939 328936 330936 334943 344956 350961 354961 353958
      350953 351951 357956 360952 361947 364944 367942 370940
      369936 366934 361932 351931 347932 345929 343920 339915
      334906 331898 327891 327887 331885 338869 341867 344870
      347877 350880 354879 359872 367858 374842 374828 377819
      376814 379808 382802 383798
 0.25 379759 379757 379755 378753 376755 376758 375760 375762
      375765 376767 376768 377767 378766 379764 379762 379761
      379759
 0.25 368052 367051 365050 363052 363053 365054 367053 368052
 0.25 358803 359799 357795 353793 350792 348794 343798 339801
      338808 335814 334819 336820 339819 345818 350815 355810
      357806 358803
 0.25 349081 347076 340074 333075 329078 328084 330090 332097
      336101 341104 345104 345101 345094 346086 349081
 0.25 322115 324103 323099 318098 313092 310089 310083 313074
      310071 307070 291068 275067 274070 277072 285075 290076
      293078 289085 287094 292100 297105 302111 306118 312122
      317123 319120 322115
 0.25 298821 292818 290816 288813 283808 277805 270803 265806
      262815 266818 274819 279823 285825 292823 298821
 0.50 519962 519953 517949 507955 504953 506944 506935 506926
      507919 507911 505904 501903 493911 487919 484924 481930
      477942 474949 473955 472963 472972 478980 484991 487995
      489997 490001 488009 488012 490015 496005 500002 503996
      509986 513975 517968 519962
 0.50 497141 498133 496128 493120 490109 489096 487092 484088
      481087 479089 479095 480101 482112 482118 482125 482133
      484136 490142 495143 497141
 0.50 427006 425005 422005 418005 417006 413006 410008 408010
      410012 413013 415012 418012 422011 423009 425008 427006
 0.50 391080 390077 387075 383074 381073 380071 376070 376073
      376076 377080 379081 383081 386081 388082 391080
 0.50 379800 380796 380792 379788 376788 373792 371798 369804
      363805 359809 356812 350821 346824 342827 337829 334829
      330830 324839 315857 312862 310864 306864 302863 297866
      294869 290870 285870 285875 287880 289884 296893 301902
      308909 312920 317930 320934 325936 324930 325925 329928
      332932 336936 338941 339943 341943 342936 341929 339923
      334914 330904 324894 321890 320882 322877 326874 330870
      333865 339858 347862 351866 354871 357868 360863 366855
      370844 372840 372831 373825 370820 370814 373808 378803
      379800
 0.50 369736 368725 366723 364726 361732 358740 356747 353755
      352763 352767 354770 358768 360764 360758 362751 366745
      369737 369736
 0.50 342096 342095 342094 341091 341089 340087 340085 340082
      339082 338082 337083 336084 335084 335086 335087 336088
      336091 336093 338095 338096 340097 342096 342096
 0.50 318114 317112 317111 315110 314109 313109 312109 311110
      310111 311113 312116 314116 316116 318114 318114
 1.00 501929 499927 497929 493934 491942 490949 488957 489965
      491969 493967 494960 496952 498944 501937 501929
 1.00 368840 369832 366827 366819 364812 361816 358821 353829
      351834 355835 358835 360834 364831 360839 356850 353854
      355860 359858 362854 366843 368840
 1.00 351835 350835 348835 348837 350835 351835
 1.00 336928 336923 334919 330913 326906 322900 319899 318903
      316906 313907 311911 312913 314917 317920 319920 321916
      326920 331926 336928
 1.00 329857 328855 327850 325850 325853 323855 322857 320860
      319864 318866 319869 322868 324866 326863 328861 329859
      329857
 1.00 318877 318874 314874 308872 303871 300872 298874 296878
      298884 302887 305888 309891 315890 317883 318877
 1.50 333924 332921 332920 331919 330919 329917 328916 327915
      326914 325913 324913 325915 326917 328919 328920 329921
      330922 331924 332924 333924
 1.50 315883 315881 314880 312880 312882 311884 312886 313886
      314885 315883

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.