Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 270630
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 27/1200 UTC THRU FEB 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CONCERNING UPR TROF DIGGING SWD FROM THE PAC NWD INTO THE CNTL
GT BASIN...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF UPR TROF DIGGING SSEWD ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST INTO THE CNTL GT BASIN THIS PD WITH ONLY MINOR AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PD.  A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PD ACRS MUCH
OF OREGON AS INITIAL SFC LOW REFLECTION SLIDES SWD ALONG THE
COAST.  THE LOW HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
LAT FRI AFTN AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS AND JET ENERGY SHIFTS RAPIDLY
SEWD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.   THE INCREASING LEFT EXIT
REGION JET ENERGY WILL AID BROAD SCALE ASCENT ACRS THE 4 CORNERS
AREA SAT NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA PATRN AND 85H/7H
WSWLY FLOW LEADING TO EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD ACRS THE SAN JUANS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES..MUCH IN THE FORM OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
HIER ELEVS.  THE GFS HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT ON THE DRIER END OF
GUIDANCE ACRS THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT THE 00Z RUN DID TREND
CLOSER TOWARDS SOME OF THE HEAVIER MODEL QPFS HERE THOUGH STILL
MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF CANADIAN GEM...NAM..EC..AND HIER RES
ARW.


SOUTH FLORIDA

RIBBON OF HIER PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN FL THIS PD
WITH LARGE COLD HI PRES WELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING LOW LEVEL ELY
FLOW CONDS TO MUCH OF THE STATE.  EXPECT SOME GENLY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE GIVEN LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPR FORCING WITH PATRN SUPPORTING PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE FL EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE---LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW MSTR AROUND WEST SIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH AIDED
BY RAPIDLY WEAKENING S/WV LIFTING OUT ACRS TX/OK REGION EARLY IN
THE PD.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 523168 524152 520147 516144 512140 508138 502137 499131
      495127 490124 486129 482126 475125 470127 469130 472136
      475139 481141 487142 490143 491147 493150 492155 494168
      495172 495177 494182 493185 490190 490193 487195 483197
      479197 470199 464192 462184 463176 460172 457167 456164
      458160 460155 463148 463143 461141 459143 456142 453145
      449146 446147 444147 438146 435143 433145 431144 428143
      427139 426135 426131 426123 429118 434118 440118 445118
      448119 453121 456123 461120 465119 473112 474105 474097
      473095 469094 463093 452092 444091 439091 435095 430094
      428091 427099 426101 421104 414108 411104 409099 408096
      406095 403101 400105 397105 396098 399094 408070 410065
      409061 406056 402055 396055 391053 389051 390048 393042
      404023 391009 385001 378994 375990 371987 368983 368978
      370971 370963 367951 365945 363943 355938 341938 335938
      330941 324963 318973 312981 306989 304991 301989 297987
      290982 284974 281970 282967 285963 285955 280953 276955
      270957 267958 262955 259956 257957 254960 253966 250970
      246972 241978 237981 236985 231989 231997 238998 244004
      257012 269019 272021 275022 285023 292025 297025 300029
      304034 311039 316044 323048 336054 341058 342065 342071
      342076 343080 346081 349085 351091 354100 354104 351106
      348106 345104 342102 338101 336101 335103 336107 339115
      342123 351133 363143 366150 362157 365160 369160 372161
      373165 373171 372178 369179 365179 352182 348182 346178
      343169 329164 325163 321167 324171 327174 332178 338183
      343189 347194 355192 363195 368199 379211 390222 383225
      380233 382240 388245 392247 395251 395254 398255 404259
      414263 422263 429261 435261 442259 448254 454253 461253
      469252 476250 479249 482246 484242 484236 481227 481217
      482211 484209 488207 494207 502215
 0.01 502215 503219 505216 506213 508211 509206 509201 509196
      510191 509188 511183 511181 512176 514171 516169 517169
      521169 523168
 0.01 431866 431864 429864 428864 426866 424867 423869 422869
      421871 421872 419874 419875 421874 423872 424872 425872
      426870 428869 430867 431866 431866
 0.01 408133 407131 405130 403128 401130 402132 403134 405134
      406135 408133
 0.01 394761 394759 393758 391759 391760 390761 388761 386761
      384762 384763 384765 385766 387766 388766 390766 392765
      392764 393762 394761
 0.01 309756 308745 306743 302742 298746 296752 294756 292757
      286752 280757 277763 274770 272777 269783 263786 259788
      254789 249793 243797 240803 240810 243818 246819 250818
      252816 257817 256824 254831 249845 249849 251853 258856
      263853 267848 271848 274845 278840 284827 286810 286804
      290799 296794 300788 303781 305774 309756
 0.25 470218 470215 468211 462207 458206 455206 451213 449214
      447210 451205 454202 455199 455191 453184 449177 444174
      437172 434169 433166 428163 422165 418169 416171 414176
      417184 417188 419191 423188 428192 430195 429200 426208
      427216 423223 424229 427233 425234 422234 416236 414238
      414242 419246 426247 437243 442241 448239 446236 443235
      441232 444231 448229 453225 459226 464224 468221 470218
 0.25 396212 395206 394202 391199 388196 383193 379192 376192
      374193 377198 379201 381205 384208 387211 393213 396212
 0.25 383117 382112 378108 373110 371109 370106 370101 371099
      374100 377100 380096 382091 384084 385077 383072 378063
      372055 365048 361047 358051 352059 351064 352071 357080
      358085 358091 363102 367110 369116 365118 361120 361125
      363127 366126 370123 372129 373130 376130 381124 383117
 0.25 286001 286999 286998 285997 284997 282997 281997 282998
      283999 284001 285001 286001 286001
 0.25 277805 277801 275798 272798 268799 264799 261801 265802
      267803 268806 269808 272810 275810 276807 277805
 0.25 279987 279983 279979 278976 275975 272976 271976 269976
      268979 266982 267986 268988 271991 273991 277991 279989
      279987
 0.50 449192 450190 449188 449187 448186 446185 444184 443184
      441183 439185 439187 439190 440192 441193 442193 443194
      445194 447194 449193 449192
 0.50 441227 442225 442222 441221 440219 438219 436220 435220
      434220 432221 432222 431224 431226 431228 432229 433230
      435231 436231 437230 438228 440227 441227
 0.50 377082 377076 375069 372064 368060 364059 359060 357062
      357067 359071 363076 367079 371084 372086 375087 377082

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.