Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 060717
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 06/1200 UTC THRU DEC 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST...

ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY
TODAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE BROAD AREA OF
RAIN IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. OVERALL THE
SHORTWAVE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE STAYING
OFFSHORE WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THUS IN GENERAL SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY UNDERGOING DECREASING INTENSITY THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL
PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A WIDE SWATH OF
0.75"-1.25" EXPECTED. LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING DISSIPATES AND THE COASTAL LOW FULLY TAKES OVER.
OVERALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER SOME QPF DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED...AND CAN BE
TRACED BACK TO DIFFERENCES IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION CROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 12Z.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE BROAD AREA OF STEADY
RAINFALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF
1-1.5" SETS UP. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GLOBAL AND HIGH RES
CONSENSUS...WITH MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES
ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FL SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACCOMPANY IT...WITH A HIGH RES BLEND PREFERRED ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A STRONG DEEP LAYER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. A DECENT TROWAL WILL RESULT IN WRAP
AROUND SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALTHOUGH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. OVERALL SAW VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MASS FIELDS AND MODEL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WPC THUS FOLLOWED A GENERAL GLOBAL AND HIGH RES BLEND.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN AND THE FRONT RANGE
OF CO. AGAIN VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
AND QPF OUTPUT...THUS WPC FOLLOWS A GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODEL
BLEND.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

CHENARD

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 221863 226869 231872 237874 246875 261874 268872 272869
      285862 298856 305852 315850 318852 322855 326862 331869
      334876 338882 340889 343895 346897 350897 362894 370890
      377886 383882 388877 393872 400867 410856 416850 422847
      439844 442846 443851 444854 441867 442874 441880 440884
      439887 437891 434894 430899 427908 427914 429917 433919
      437919 448918 456917 459924 457930 455940 452957 452963
      453966 452970 450971 446972 443975 444980 447982 449984
      454984 457983 460984 458988 455991 451998 456005 458008
      461011 464013 465018 467026 471031 477035 484037 487038
      490036 492036 494033 499029 508016 518004 522998 527994
      531985 532978 533973 536963 537951 539930 540920 541913
      541900 539891 535872 533847 531833 528823 524812 520805
      503779 487760 466737 462733 457729 451723 447719 445715
      441707 437701 432697 427690 423686 418683 408677 403671
      398667 388676 384684 381687 378689 372685 365682 350678
      348678 344679 340684 336690 335692 331694 326698 322703
      317718 309731 302745 298752 294754 290751 283749 279750
      276752 274758 270764 266769 261774 253781 247787 242794
      240799 238808 237811 235815 230820 226827 225835 225841
      223844 219851
 0.01 479261 479259 476255 473252 466245 457241 447238 447233
      448230 450227 451223 458214 456210 455203 458199 460200
      459205 460210 464211 463199 469205 474207 477204 475191
      473173 467151 465144 463140 456133 454129 449129 445130
      440129 438131 436129 438124 440119 443116 447109 447106
      446104 443098 440093 433087 430087 428084 423084 421084
      421076 425075 427072 428063 427055 426050 424046 421039
      420036 419032 417020 414015 412010 409998 407989 403986
      399988 393997 386007 386013 388020 389025 391032 390040
      388046 386051 381052 372049 363050 359053 357055 357058
      361059 361063 361067 364070 368072 370076 373081 377084
      388083 390087 394085 398087 401087 405091 404098 401103
      397106 391112 385114 382115 381118 382124 386127 389128
      391130 392134 392137 394149 396160 397164 395168 396171
      399171 404171 410172 408177 410182 412188 411192 409195
      405200 401204 397205 394202 391201 390204 403216 407218
      412218 411224 409226 404228 400229 400232 401238 398243
      394247 395252 397255 401259 404262 410264 420267 425268
      428267 431268 439266 445267 450267 461265 471264 479261
 0.01 420298 419291 416286 414281 409276 405273 398269 393268
      387267 382267 376269 367276 366281 367284 370286 375289
      382291 387294 394297 408301 413302 419300 420298
 0.01 431154 431152 432149 433147 433145 433143 432140 432137
      431135 429137 428139 427141 427144 427146 427148 427151
      427153 427156 428158 430156 431154
 0.01 414172 413170 411170 409171 411173 412174 414172
 0.01 411136 410131 409128 407128 403128 398127 397123 394123
      395126 396129 399134 401136 400143 401146 403147 406144
      409140 411136
 0.01 381060 381059 379058 377057 375056 374056 372056 370055
      368056 368057 368058 369059 370059 372060 373061 375062
      377063 378064 380062 381060
 0.01 333184 334182 334180 334178 333175 331173 329172 328172
      326171 324171 324172 325174 325176 325177 326178 327179
      328179 330181 330182 332182 333184 333184
 0.01 270795 271793 269792 268794 267796 266797 265798 265800
      266801 267800 268799 269798 270797 270795
 0.25 533925 533914 533904 532886 530868 529859 526849 519840
      516837 513836 511838 507841 503841 498846 493848 489846
      486841 482839 476837 472835 469831 469821 468814 465810
      462812 460817 460825 462833 463837 466838 469838 470841
      475857 481867 483874 483877 481878 480880 478882 480884
      482884 481887 476891 472897 472903 477906 480906 483905
      487902 492906 495910 499915 501918 502924 504932 504936
      503946 501951 497956 492958 489957 486955 482952 477948
      472951 466959 466963 470968 474972 477981 480987 485989
      487994 488000 490004 493002 497000 504999 510997 515994
      518991 524981 526974 528966 531947 532941 531936 531930
      533925
 0.25 458165 458162 458161 456162 455164 455165 457166 458165
 0.25 429223 427221 425221 424221 423222 423224 423225 425226
      426226 428225 428224 429223
 0.25 437775 437769 436765 434760 428750 420740 411730 408725
      406716 405700 403692 399688 394685 391686 388689 381698
      376701 372701 360701 344702 337705 332708 328718 324729
      317741 312752 308763 307769 307778 308795 307803 305808
      300818 298822 296829 297836 301844 307844 311841 319834
      324832 330835 334839 338845 342850 348851 354859 357861
      358864 360870 366875 370876 380869 387861 395852 405843
      409839 412833 418825 419818 423813 426807 429799 434787
      435779 437775
 0.25 417062 414057 416050 414049 411049 409052 404052 400054
      398057 399059 402059 407059 410062 412067 415064 417062
 0.25 397062 398060 397059 396060 395061 394062 393064 393066
      394067 395066 396064 396063 397062
 0.25 392071 392068 391067 390068 389070 390072 392071
 0.25 374066 373065 372064 371063 370063 368063 369065 370066
      371067 373068 374066
 0.25 296807 293803 289803 277800 273802 269806 264815 258824
      255826 254824 254818 257807 259795 255796 253800 249811
      238828 236840 237848 239852 243853 246852 250850 263847
      272842 280835 287829 293818 295813 296807
 0.50 520978 520973 518965 517953 514951 510954 505960 499966
      491970 488970 487972 489982 491987 495990 501988 505986
      510987 514986 518983 520978
 0.50 521934 521923 520913 517908 513903 510900 507900 507903
      508911 510918 511926 512936 513939 515939 520936 521934
 0.50 425777 424770 420765 415764 413758 407747 404740 402732
      400723 400715 400700 396694 393695 387700 384706 379710
      375708 370706 365707 353712 339716 334720 331725 326734
      321744 319750 318759 318774 317780 314784 312789 312796
      309812 313816 315816 317813 323806 326801 328795 336785
      340781 344777 351777 355778 359792 361799 363805 362809
      361816 359821 357827 359832 361834 361839 361845 361854
      364861 370864 374861 380859 383855 390846 396835 403825
      403816 401811 405800 406796 409794 414790 420784 425780
      425777
 0.50 341808 341801 339797 337799 335804 333808 331811 330816
      328820 331822 334821 337817 339813 340809 341808
 0.50 282823 282817 277816 274818 270820 267823 265827 264833
      268835 271834 277832 278830 281825 282823
 0.50 254810 255808 254806 252807 252808 251810 250812 251814
      253813 253812 254810 254810
 0.50 247825 247823 246822 246823 245824 244825 244827 245829
      246827 247825 247825
 1.00 391750 391746 390741 388740 384742 381746 378752 376758
      376765 375769 377773 382775 386774 387771 387767 387758
      389753 391750
 1.00 384800 384797 383795 382793 380791 379794 379795 379796
      378798 378800 378803 378805 378806 380806 381805 381804
      383802 384800
 1.00 369727 367723 364721 359721 354723 349724 347723 342723
      338725 333731 330739 325756 322773 321782 319787 320793
      324794 326791 330783 336767 340762 346756 355743 366732
      369727
 1.00 275824 274822 272823 271824 270825 270826 271828 273828
      274826 274825 275824
 1.50 344739 343736 338736 333742 330748 327755 325764 326773
      327775 329772 332766 336760 340753 342746 344739

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.