Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 26/1200 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS--MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY DAY 1
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO
MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AS A STRONG VORT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE NC
COAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OVERALL---MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS
DAY 1 ARE SIMILAR---LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  FOR
QPF DETAILS---A COMBINATION OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO
BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED.  EARLY SEASON HEAVY SNOWS
WILL BLOSSOM DAY 1 FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE WEST OF THE DCA---PHL---NYC URBAN
CORRIDOR AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TO THE WEST OF THE BOS-PVD
REGION---WITH A COLD RAIN TO THE EAST.   SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER VORT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST---A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT WILL PRESS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN
VALLEY DAY 1.  MODEST PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM VORT WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION
THIS PERIOD.  GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION---WITH HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WHERE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SNOW
TOTALS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE PAC
NW COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES---1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING BACK INTO THE WA CASCADES---OLYMPIC AND COAST
RANGE---SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT--PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION---WHICH
WILL BE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM FAR
NORTHERN ID---SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND INTO FAR NW WY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 487614 489621 492631 495640 496647 495651 495656 493661
      489670 486677 482683 475696 466711 451742 438767 434773
      431781 429786 426789 420793 413796 406801 397814 392820
      386825 383827 382832 383843 384852 386859 389868 392875
      396882 399885 401889 405894 409902 413910 415914 419916
      428915 437912 442908 446901 448897 444894 441890 440880
      438872 433871 429872 427874 423874 421866 420860 423859
      442858 450857 455852 458844 460834 465833 468834 475837
      478846 481857 484861 489866 491874 491881 490885 488895
      486900 484904 480910 476915 462945 457952 451956 447957
      442957 435955 424950 412943 397936 390935 384938 377941
      374939 372936 369930 367923 364914 363910 364905 373901
      368896 364892 360887 357880 357874 355871 355863 353859
      352853 343842 343840 346836 345832 340832 335825 329820
      327818 327817 326813 322812 308810 294809 287809 281813
      275818 270824 259832 253836 250839 246839 239844 231844
      225842 222835 225827 228822 265782 274774 281769 288766
      291764 295760 298752 300745 305738 308733 312729 315727
      318725 321723 326722 333718 337716 336712 338703 341695
      345689 349685 364676 367673 371672 377666 380664 384660
      389655 393650 398644
 0.01 539194 541181 542172 541167 543151 545134 545130 544128
      542124 537116 530107 525099 516082 512074 506064 492053
      488050 482049 477049 473051 471053 468054 464052 459052
      454052 451056 443060 440062 438069 438073 439076 441078
      446087 447092 443093 439093 436095 428089 425086 425089
      429099 428103 423105 423110 425115 423119 427120 432119
      435116 439115 443118 447119 450118 453114 458111 461114
      462121 460127 455127 455133 458138 457150 457155 460158
      464160 466164 472171 478179 483188 485192 484197 477200
      473203 469207 466209 460210 459212 456214 452215 447215
      438218 436221 438225 441229 439233 430237 426239 422239
      415245 403255 398264 398267 399270 398274 399276 402285
      403290 407289 416285 424283 438278 455274 464273 468272
      473273 482277 492283 496285 499287 502287 505288 506290
      513285 517274 521264 523255 526248 533225 539194
 0.01 489234 488232 486232 485231 483231 483232 483233 484233
      486233 488234 489234
 0.01 416073 416065 414062 412061 407056 404053 401053 399055
      395059 391063 392068 396073 399074 401072 404072 408075
      413075 416073
 0.25 479617 482635 483644 482653 480669 478677 475683 469694
      462706 451731 446741 439753 430762 423773 415782 408792
      399801 389810 381816 377821 372826 369828 366828 362825
      356821 352816 348813 344808 346804 350799 354794 357788
      353784 348783 343783 335783 330783 323785 315785 312783
      311780 312773 316768 324762 335755 341751 345746 350735
      357726 361721 366717 374708 383698 390689 397677 403666
      411654 415647 418643 419637
 0.25 532214 534198 536180 536170 534163 531155 527150 525148
      523150 521153 518152 510149 505147 498144 494139 486127
      482123 478119 478107 477101 474091 472085 469083 465083
      459084 458088 459091 461098 464105 467112 471117 472121
      470126 469133 472141 475146 477148 480148 483147 483151
      476150 474148 472150 471155 473158 476164 481170 488178
      491183 493193 491199 487202 475207 467214 457220 457228
      454233 447235 442237 438239 433243 428247 428251 431251
      441249 448247 455247 461249 464255 470260 475263 488271
      498281 502283 507283 512279 515272 519264 521255 526239
      532214
 0.25 496247 495241 493235 490228 489226 486224 479222 476222
      474223 477226 481231 484237 488236 492240 496247 496247
 0.25 475882 473876 471873 469872 466876 465886 464893 462900
      461908 462911 465911 468906 470900 473892 474885 475882
 0.25 387888 388881 385877 382873 380870 377866 374866 375869
      375874 377880 379883 381886 385888 387888
 0.25 373844 372842 372840 371837 370835 369834 368835 368836
      368838 369840 369842 370843 371844 372846 373844
 0.50 474619 476632 476648 475663 474670 472678 469687 463697
      452717 448727 442737 436746 430755 417772 403788 386801
      378805 373810 368811 364809 362805 362793 366781 366774
      364769 360767 355768 350769 345769 343768 342763 344757
      349749 361733 375715 387699 393692 400681 405673 412664
      418655 424645 431633
 0.50 527212 529205 530196 530186 530178 528172 525166 522162
      518158 500160 490162 487166 489172 494182 496187 498194
      498198 497202 494205 488205 483206 480207 476209 472215
      473219 476220 487223 491227 493234 498243 501248 500254
      494245 490240 486237 482239 480233 476228 471229 462234
      453236 449239 451241 458242 464245 475251 479254 483258
      496275 499279 504281 508279 512274 517265 519258 520247
      519240 517235 511225 506216 503211 505206 510204 514205
      517209 520214 525216 527212
 0.50 491145 490139 489137 487135 486133 483131 480130 478128
      475129 474131 473136 475139 478139 480140 483141 486144
      488146 491145
 0.50 472096 472095 471093 470093 470095 471096 472097 472096
 1.00 465622 467629 465642 461662 459671 455680 450687 445695
      441701 440711 431728 426734 420740 413746 407752 395763
      388767 379764 372762 363762 352762 351758 353753 373729
      383715 393700 402687 414672 418667 423660 432643 436638
      440631
 1.00 516259 516254 515247 511236 506229 501220 499215 495212
      490210 484209 481210 477212 478216 483219 488220 491223
      494235 500243 503247 504252 504260 502260 499257 496252
      491244 488240 485241 484243 483246 484250 486254 492263
      496272 499276 502277 505276 506269 507266 509266 513265
      516259 516259
 1.00 523192 522184 520178 517174 512170 508166 501165 498167
      496171 497174 500180 504185 509189 513192 519195 523192
 1.00 480244 480242 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472240 472241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 480244
 1.50 513261 513255 512250 510243 509238 506235 503228 499222
      497218 494217 492221 493225 495233 499240 504247 506255
      508259 511262 513261
 1.50 501272 502267 499261 497257 495253 492249 490245 487243
      487250 489254 491259 494263 496267 499271 501272
 1.50 486215 485214 484214 483214 484215 485216 486215
 1.50 478238 477236 476235 475235 475237 475238 477239 478238
 1.50 454638 452632 448632 446636 441642 436647 419672 409683
      399695 391706 385721 376732 366742 362747 358753 361755
      365754 372751 380748 386744 392739 396733 399727 404721
      409716 411713 416711 423708 427702 429694 434688 438683
      442676 445668 448660 451648 454638
 2.00 507248 507244 505240 504238 503235 501233 500230 499226
      496224 495228 495231 496234 499237 501239 502241 504244
      506247 507248
 2.00 499266 499265 498263 497261 497260 496258 496257 495255
      494254 494253 493251 492250 491248 489249 489252 490254
      490255 491257 492258 493259 494261 494262 495263 496265
      497266 498267 499266
 2.00 429676 428673 425672 422677 413683 409689 404692 398700
      393708 393712 395714 402712 408705 411701 417698 422689
      426679 429676

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