Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS04 KWBC 140724
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 14/1200 UTC THRU JAN 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL PIVOT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES FAR SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON AZ/NM WHERE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED SINCE THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FARTHER NORTH...RATHER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING RAIN AND SOME SNOW TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SERN
U.S...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IMPACTING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
OVERRUNNING AN ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AXIS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY AND EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN...WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK/KS AND WESTERN MO THIS PERIOD. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A CHILLY RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER INTO THE ACTUALLY FRONTAL ZONE. BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTING
TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE NOSE
OF A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FOSTER
SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND POSSIBLY REACHING OUT INTO WESTERN
TX. IN FACT THE LATEST ARW INDICATES A POOLING OF 500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM WHICH WILL BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE STRONG UPSTREAM ENERGY. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY BE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAIN RATES.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS AND MS-TN-OH VALLEYS...

OTHER THAN TRENDING 3 TO 9 HOURS FASTER WITH THE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...00Z GUIDANCE
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH A POSSIBLE HIGH BIAS IN LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS...
PARTICULARLY THE GFS...OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO DIFFICULTIES
RESOLVING ANTICIPATED CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RETARD OR DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NEEDED TO GENERATE THE HIGHER MODEL TOTALS FARTHER NORTH.
THUS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENTS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PERCEIVED BIAS AND
CLOSE TO AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO
HELP CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF PROPAGATION THAT IS DIFFICULT AT BEST
FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...USED
AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF. GIVEN
MODEST RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES IN SHORT WAVELENGTH DETAILS...CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY AVERAGE FOR THIS FORECAST. RAIN RATES FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TOWARD THE ARKLATEX ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF EXCEEDING FFG VALUES FOR BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FFG VALUES A BIT HIGHER NEAR OR WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN DFW AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY NIGHT TO JUSTIFY
CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. REFER TO THE
QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW AND ICE.

NORTHWEST...

MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BY
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION FORMING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FOR THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE TOTALS...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE SOLUTION SPREAD.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORRISON/JAMES

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 507279 506273 502267 500261 496256 493251 489252 490260
      492266 495272 498278 503282 507279
 0.01 501827 500817 496817 493816 492818 488822 483824 480829
      478835 472834 469838 467843 470849 473853 475855 475859
      475867 476872 480869 485860 489848 493838 499829 501827
 0.01 464708 465704 464701 462701 455703 453707 450709 448717
      445725 443732 442742 444745 447744 450736 452728 454724
      456722 460716 464708 464708
 0.01 459812 459810 459808 459805 459803 458802 457801 456800
      455800 453801 453804 453806 453808 454809 455811 455813
      456813 457813 459813 459812
 0.01 413255 411250 407247 403243 398241 389236 379230 370232
      364233 361235 360239 362244 366248 370251 377252 381251
      393255 397258 403260 408260 412257 413255
 0.01 410718 408704 404691 400684 394679 387675 381676 377679
      373681 371685 367692 365700 361709 350719 339730 333735
      328741 323749 319759 316767 315776 316787 320789 324786
      330781 336775 342770 345766 351765 361763 365764 369767
      374769 378776 380788 380793 379798 375802 371804 363810
      359816 358821 356825 351831 348835 343836 341839 342844
      346846 349846 351847 353857 353868 353878 351887 350891
      347895 345901 342911 342917 341923 340928 338933 330939
      326945 323954 317960 309964 304964 299966 296968 294972
      288976 284976 281978 273981 273984 276987 287987 287994
      287000 287003 285005 280003 278007 274016 276022 278025
      281029 281033 282036 286039 291046 296054 291064 287065
      282065 271063 261063 253065 250067 248069 244077 247083
      259092 259098 257104 259113 261120 256126 251132 249136
      251140 256144 265143 269142 274143 280147 286152 291159
      300169 304170 307171 309173 315172 334167 340169 344169
      342165 339163 334161 332157 333148 335141 338138 345143
      349150 356151 367141 375139 377137 376134 371133 370131
      371129 372124 375122 382117 385115 386113 385108 389101
      393092 396083 402077 405066 406058 401057 394058 392056
      390052 388049 385051 378054 375055 373055 373052 374040
      375035 378032 384027 390021 395011 400996 404988 407978
      409966 407954 406950 406944 407935 406925 405914 400906
      395900 390894 388891 387884 387869 389858 390845 391836
      393825 397814 400806 404798 408789 410784 410780 411776
      411771 411762 409756 407752 403746 401736 406729 409724
      410718
 0.01 311805 310799 308796 305799 301802 300804 298809 295813
      295817 294820 298822 301819 305816 306814 308810 311805
      311805
 0.01 307943 305941 301938 297939 294943 292945 288949 288954
      290956 296956 298954 301952 304947 307943 307943
 0.01 270800 270793 266792 262792 256793 253795 250797 248802
      246805 247809 250806 254804 257802 261803 265801 270800
      270800
 0.25 392706 391702 388700 382702 377707 374715 372722 372728
      373733 377739 381740 383737 386731 388721 391713 392706
 0.25 394801 394796 392795 388797 380805 373812 366818 362822
      360827 360834 364835 375832 382836 384825 388814 392805
      394801
 0.25 393963 394956 391950 388941 387937 384932 377926 375917
      377906 378895 378882 377875 375871 372868 368866 364884
      362903 360913 356923 348968 346978 342988 335002 324017
      318024 314033 312037 312043 317048 317054 316059 310064
      302070 295073 282073 272071 263069 256069 252071 252076
      254079 257082 264089 266098 269101 273104 281108 284109
      284115 281123 273126 265128 262129 262132 265134 275134
      295141 301145 309143 316142 321139 318134 315131 314128
      315125 319118 322115 327113 331114 335116 342121 345124
      349125 365121 378109 381097 384093 384087 385079 381073
      377066 374063 370061 366057 367052 367042 368036 370030
      374022 383008 387001 391990 391977 392967 393963
 0.25 378744 378741 377740 376742 377744 377746 378744
 0.25 346750 345748 343749 341750 341751 340752 340753 342754
      343752 345751 346750
 0.25 346090 346089 345087 344087 344089 345090 346090 346090
 0.50 384995 385984 384973 379962 376954 372949 370945 370941
      371932 369923 366920 365921 361926 359932 355949 355959
      355967 356971 356975 354984 348993 345001 341008 338012
      335019 332027 327030 321033 318037 318042 320044 325048
      331051 336051 345051 351049 355045 357037 361031 366027
      370022 373017 380006 384995
 0.50 362067 362063 360062 358060 355060 346063 338063 331062
      324063 321066 310072 301077 295077 289077 276074 268073
      265073 262074 261078 262082 264084 271093 275097 279099
      287101 293103 298111 302113 305112 307109 308106 308102
      310096 314092 319090 332088 340082 349076 358071 362067
 0.50 352115 349110 347107 345104 343100 340096 338093 334093
      334097 335104 335108 338113 341115 345117 348118 350117
      352115
 0.50 311137 309130 306125 303121 301119 298118 292121 288124
      285128 289131 294134 299138 303140 306139 311137
 1.00 376001 374998 371999 365999 362997 359994 357995 352002
      350013 348024 348029 352028 359024 367019 372012 376003
      376001
 1.00 341074 340070 335071 329072 316075 311079 306081 300082
      292082 283081 279080 275081 274084 275089 280091 295091
      299091 301089 305085 312082 318081 320079 325079 330079
      338076 341074
 1.00 339041 340037 337035 333036 331036 328037 324037 322037
      322040 324042 327043 331044 335044 337043 339041
 1.00 304133 303133 301133 303134 304133
 1.50 365014 366012 366010 365008 363009 362009 360012 359014
      359016 361014 363015 365014 365014

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 541202 540197 538194 536190 533188 529182 525176 521175
      518177 516187 519196 521205 524212 526220 530227 532230
      534228 536224
 0.01 520271 522264 522260 520256 516254 514250 510244 504239
      499239 498242 500246 502254 505263 501263 499261 491257
      487254 482254 479256 475262 475270 478277 481285 485292
      490297 496302 504305 509302
 0.01 455710 454709 452709 451710 450711 449713 449714 449716
      448718 447719 447721 447722 449724 450722 451721 452719
      453718 453716 454715 454713 454711 455710
 0.01 445959 445941 445921 441906 437893 434880 432873 428869
      425865 422858 418848 416842 413836 408824 406837 404845
      401844 400839 396835 395827 396823 399825 401822 402795
      394768 392765 389765 383764 377764 375762 372763 370763
      369768 368775 368782 366785 364784 362779 362772 362767
      359763 356766 354771 356788 358796 356801 349811 350820
      350824 348826 349834 352830 355829 356832 355837 354844
      354852 355861 356867 359882 363895 365903 366911 367914
      367919 362921 351925 340928 330932 320936 309941 302943
      299946 293955 292958 288960 281960 277962 275969 275972
      272977 271988 271011 273013 274017 274021 275022 281025
      285028 287044 292054 298062 302070 305074 308080 303084
      300088 298096 298102 298109 300114 305122 308124 311124
      316124 322123 327120 334122 339124 348130 355131 361130
      364124 367120 374109 382102 387100 388092 392080 398069
      404062 413055 413044 416038 419033 421027 432004 440978
      445959
 0.01 385198 384197 383195 383194 381194 379194 377193 377194
      379195 381196 382197 382198 384199 385198
 0.01 373188 371187 370185 368185 366184 366187 367187 369188
      371188 373189 373188
 0.01 367221 348201 347198 350195 355198 357194 361193 363195
      366196 359186 355182 349181 346175 343168 338164 331160
      324157 316155 312150 307150 295142 294144 294148 298154
      305165 314175 318176 319180 325178 329178 333179 338183
      342188 342193 339195 337193 334193 334200 339204 343205
      346208 356216 362221 367221
 0.01 283084 283079 281076 276069 270063 266061 261059 257058
      252058 246058 244060 240063 240068 241072 245073 253077
      261080 271083 281085 283084
 0.25 414994 415985 415974 414954 412939 410931 409926 405921
      398919 389925 386929 382936 374943 370947 364949 352944
      344945 338946 328950 319956 308964 301970 293979 288991
      287999 288006 288014 291020 297028 301033 304039 304046
      306053 312062 320071 323076 321085 322093 322097 321099
      319102 318107 322111 333115 340115 348117 349116 347113
      344109 341106 343103 346097 355093 363084 374080 379077
      383074 389063 393059 397053 397045 397037 399029 402023
      408014 410009 412003 414994
 0.25 383800 383798 383797 382798 381799 380800 381802 381803
      381802 383800 383800
 0.25 375805 375803 374803 372803 372804 371805 369806 370808
      370811 371813 373810 374808 374806 375805
 0.50 409982 409975 408969 405957 403952 400947 396946 391946
      387947 383950 374956 366959 361959 357958 347955 337952
      334952 329953 321958 307969 301974 295981 290990 289995
      291999 291008 293012 296014 297021 300024 305026 307031
      312038 315042 316048 312051 312056 315060 318063 322066
      327067 336065 343068 354068 361072 367068 371064 372058
      374056 377056 383056 386052 387047 387036 387029 390025
      396018 402009 405000 407990 409982
 1.00 398988 398982 398977 396970 395968 390966 385966 379972
      369985 364991 359989 356987 347985 347978 346974 344970
      341967 336962 327963 318966 312970 306975 300981 295989
      295992 297995 295004 298007 303007 304011 302016 305019
      309020 316018 325016 336015 340017 342019 352022 351039
      354041 356045 356056 361057 364054 365050 365046 359039
      362032 376022 388012 392006 394000 397994 398988
 1.00 338043 337038 333035 330032 326030 323028 319026 314025
      311025 311028 314032 317034 321037 324039 327042 331044
      337043 338043
 1.50 328975 321976 315975 309979 307982 305985 303989 305992
      300997 299001 302003 309001 317999 320997 321994 323986
      322983 324980 328975

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 518271 519264 519258 518247 517237 517231 515227 513222
      510218 505213 501205 496197 490193 484194 473205 470208
      466209 460211 453212 446215 438218 436220 435225 436233
      435240 433244 428251 423255 412269 410280 409285 410289
      415294 425297 428297 433299 442301 458303 466303 472301
      485297 498290 503287 509282 515277 518271
 0.01 506182 507176 508169 505162 500157 493153 486151 480155
      479165 480175 483182 487188 491189 494188 501186 506182
      506182
 0.01 475694 475687 471684 468687 465690 461692 458697 456700
      455705 457708 461706 465704 469701 473698 475694
 0.01 482894 481880 480871 479857 475846 469831 465825 461821
      455818 449816 444812 440812 438810 431807 429800 430793
      429782 428778 425774 420769 416767 413770 410774 404780
      402783 398784 395782 393782 389783 387785 384790 379798
      376805 368818 368824 369829 371827 374821 376817 381817
      385817 383821 380827 375836 370843 363854 355865 347876
      338886 326898 320902 318904 317902 315900 309894 306888
      304884 300882 293886 290884 288886 283891 286902 290910
      292918 293921 291922 288924 286931 288935 286938 281943
      281947 279950 276958 273965 271967 266968 262969 256969
      253972 253977 254985 254990 256992 266999 272003 276007
      289998 294995 299990 310981 317977 323974 330969 339967
      353964 361963 366963 376964 379970 383976 384981 383986
      380996 375003 372010 366016 363020 361024 359030 356035
      356042 354046 350048 347050 346054 341057 333048 328047
      325045 321046 321051 320057 319061 322067 330071 335068
      340064 345064 345070 344076 339075 336073 334074 320084
      317082 313081 311088 304090 301095 301106 305111 311116
      321117 326118 328117 333114 346110 353107 357102 361094
      364092 360090 362081 367077 376071 379074 382074 387068
      389065 391059 397054 402050 405045 410038 414032 418025
      422018 426010 431002 439991 447981 457967 464950 471935
      474927 474922 476920 482894
 0.01 366809 365802 361802 352804 349809 348813 347818 346822
      344833 343838 342843 343847 347846 352839 357831 360823
      364814 366809
 0.01 327133 328131 328129 328128 327126 326125 325126 324127
      323128 323130 323132 322134 322136 323138 324137 325136
      326135 327133 327133
 0.25 514261 515253 514247 513239 511233 506222 504217 499212
      494208 491206 486205 481207 473211 463215 455221 454228
      450234 445244 442249 439256 439260 440263 442267 445272
      448276 459282 470285 480285 489282 498278 506273 511268
      514261
 0.25 465905 466890 465882 463875 455859 451849 448845 446844
      443845 423848 418847 416844 413839 412831 409821 407817
      403816 395820 389825 383833 378841 369859 359872 348885
      337899 324913 313924 308929 303937 298945 294953 288959
      283968 279974 271978 264984 263986 264988 269990 279978
      282974 286973 288979 293981 297981 300979 307975 320967
      329962 337959 355952 368944 375939 381938 387938 391939
      396946 399957 399965 399973 397983 394993 390003 386012
      382019 380031 380038 384040 389039 393036 399030 404024
      409017 415010 426995 436978 442972 445965 451959 456952
      461941 462936 463930 465905
 0.25 367052 365050 363049 361050 359051 357053 355055 355058
      358060 358065 358067 360067 361063 363061 364058 366054
      367052
 0.50 512255 512249 510244 507235 499216 493210 490208 486208
      479211 472215 468218 467222 467227 465229 458236 454244
      451250 451257 452262 455266 461271 471275 480276 488276
      495273 502270 508264 510260 512255
 0.50 451937 450927 449919 448913 445905 442897 437890 437885
      436881 434877 431875 424876 415879 407875 404875 401873
      395867 399851 401841 400836 398833 393833 389835 383843
      376855 371863 367870 358882 340908 335913 328917 321921
      315926 310932 305939 302946 299955 295973 298975 301975
      308971 323962 334956 341953 348948 359937 365933 372927
      375921 380916 387911 395907 398904 400901 405904 407905
      410904 412901 414899 416900 417905 424907 428914 429919
      430926 428929 424931 420938 419940 416938 415940 415946
      414955 413965 410974 404993 402003 402009 409005 415998
      420993 424987 432969 440957 447947 451937
 1.00 498260 498250 494243 489238 482234 479233 476233 471238
      467247 467253 470256 477261 483265 487266 492266 497263
      498260
 1.00 376893 376891 373890 367891 360896 353903 350908 346912
      339918 332926 327934 321941 314947 308956 305961 305966
      311965 315962 332952 346939 352930 354927 357921 359916
      362912 368905 373898 376893
 1.00 321932 319932 317934 316935 315937 314938 313939 312941
      314942 315941 316941 317939 319937 319936 320935 321933
      321932
 1.00 303968 304966 303965 302966 303968 303969 303968
 1.50 494254 492249 490246 486243 482239 479236 477237 476240
      476246 479250 481254 484257 489258 493256 494254
 1.50 322954 321953 319953 318954 319955 321954 322954
 1.50 318956 317955 316955 315956 316956 317956 318956

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.