Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 24/1200 UTC THRU NOV 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY.  THE COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION REGION WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY DAY 1---SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P.---ACROSS MOST OF WI---FAR NORTHERN IL AND THE
WESTERN L.P. OF MI.  STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WESTERN U.P. AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
L.P. OF MI.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
DETAILS.

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

THE AREA OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PUSHING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING TROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY DAY 1 AS IT MOVES THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. THE RAPID NORTHEAST PUSH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS FOR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF
DAY 1 FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE---NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  CONVECTION LIKELY IN THIS AXIS
AS THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
UPPER LAKES PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF
COAST INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS---WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THE HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY DAY
1 IN THE WAKE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES INLAND--WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY.  THE LATEST NAM IS A
SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXTENDING INTO THE OREGON  CASCADES AND COAST RANGE--WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE WA CASCADES/COAST RANGE---EXTENDING ONLY
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES/COAST RANGE.  WITH HEIGHTS
RISING OVER THE NORTHWEST---THE FARTHER NORTHWARD QPF AXIS IS
FAVORED.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 544758 533716 529703 526692 516672 510658 506652 502645
      492635 487631 484628 480629 476629 474628 465630 448635
      442641 437642 434642 411645 406646 402647 399650 386658
      381663 377665 375668 364676 357682 351685 335694 315724
      308734 306737 307742 308752 309757 306761 301766 296771
      292778 282787 277793 271799 263804 256809 246823 238833
      231847 229854 229861 230870 231873 232878 233920 236929
      238934 241936 246936 250934 257929 263925 268920 275911
      284898 291885 328831 341808 349795 358782 365769 370763
      375756 381748 386740 391737 396736 401735 405736 409740
      414741 421743 427746 430747 432752 434761 436764 435767
      435772 432783 429800 427803 423805 416810 402818 389833
      379843 374850 372852 372858 376864 382868 391875 394877
      396880 399889 402897 406906 412914 418919 434928 445935
      451935 459933 465931 468930 471928 476924 482918 487914
      492909 498903 504897 510892 516885 519882 521878 525863
      532831 535822 537811 540802 541798 541791 544758
 0.01 535212 538200 538187 535178 531170 526164 522157 516150
      507143 496137 485127 482125 477125 473124 471121 477107
      480100 484094 485086 484082 481073 469059 460044 450033
      447029 441025 429017 424015 421018 421020 425027 428030
      431030 436036 437041 438047 436050 434051 432049 429042
      426041 424044 423047 423055 420056 418055 415054 411054
      408055 404054 395053 389049 382049 378049 376050 372050
      370052 370056 368061 372074 372078 374082 377085 382086
      385088 388089 388086 386083 385079 387078 392085 395088
      397088 398085 417071 417068 420066 424065 426063 428061
      432059 440060 444062 444066 441067 438066 433068 429070
      430073 449082 451083 454080 457077 461079 465084 466090
      464095 462097 460095 458093 454092 448093 442090 438090
      434092 428087 424088 424092 426095 428099 425102 418105
      414104 412101 411097 407095 404107 399107 395110 389113
      385118 384122 386123 391120 396117 406118 416121 422118
      426123 430122 432119 436118 441119 446124 451124 451127
      449128 447131 444137 443139 440138 437138 436141 435144
      434150 434155 435160 443173 443177 441180 439183 438189
      441194 441199 442203 443206 446207 449207 451204 455195
      460188 465181 468178 471177 476179 479183 482186 484192
      483197 481199 474200 465206 461207 459208 456211 453212
      439213 427205 424205 425209 427213 428216 426219 423220
      421224 423227 427230 409235 405237 407242 411248 418250
      425252 434254 441253 449252 455252 463254 471260 476266
      482272 488278 495284 500288 505290 509288 513284 516276
      519265 520261 520255 519246 520239 523235 528232 533221
      535212
 0.25 530205 531196 530188 528177 526171 523165 516158 507151
      503150 500152 501154 501159 497162 487160 477154 471148
      467144 462144 458147 457151 458155 460159 465162 469165
      474166 478166 483169 490176 498184 501188 505192 511201
      518208 521211 526211 530205
 0.25 536778 536770 536761 533741 529724 525709 520697 516688
      512678 506670 500663 496660 491659 480657 470655 462653
      453652 449651 444652 435658 428666 424670 419673 399683
      372708 365716 361720 356723 351726 348732 344743 340751
      337762 336767 336769 338769 344763 356747 363737 367733
      372729 399709 405707 408709 416717 421720 427720 433720
      438722 447719 450718 453722 454739 458751 460756 462764
      462769 461775 458781 454784 451790 448798 441817 439827
      437834 435838 432843 429846 420853 417856 414863 411878
      412885 414889 421898 425905 431911 435914 440915 447914
      452911 456909 460913 463919 466917 467914 473892 476881
      478875 481870 489866 497865 504862 507859 514848 530806
      534791 536778
 0.25 515267 517257 516248 513237 508224 503215 500210 495205
      491202 486202 475204 467209 451217 445220 443222 444226
      454228 455230 449232 446235 446240 451245 455246 467248
      473250 480254 484257 487262 494272 500280 502282 505282
      509278 515268 515267
 0.25 496241 494238 491233 489229 486225 482223 478223 475224
      475228 477229 480231 482237 486235 489237 492240 494243
      496241
 0.25 491145 490142 489138 487136 485133 483131 479131 476130
      474131 472136 475138 479139 480140 483142 485143 488146
      491145
 0.25 462181 463176 459175 454176 452180 449182 445183 442186
      443188 446187 451190 452191 456187 458185 462181 462181
 0.25 451114 452112 452110 451107 449106 447105 446105 444105
      442105 442106 440108 441110 442111 443113 445115 446116
      447116 448116 450115 451114
 0.25 444038 443038 441038 441041 443041 444038
 0.25 412071 410066 407065 403062 398062 394063 391066 390070
      391075 395076 401077 403074 404071 406071 412072 412071
 0.25 337793 335792 332793 326796 318804 303819 294828 288835
      274853 261872 263880 266884 269885 272884 282877 289870
      304854 317835 330816 336805 337793
 0.50 526201 527192 526187 522178 517169 509165 506163 502163
      498164 496169 498175 500178 506185 511193 517201 520203
      525203 526201
 0.50 531774 531763 530751 528737 526727 522713 515701 508688
      504682 498680 491682 489688 486694 485696 482697 469697
      464705 462713 458725 457732 458739 460743 462743 469742
      475736 478737 480741 482745 482750 480752 476750 473751
      470754 469761 469771 468781 464788 460791 456796 454811
      451817 446823 442839 439846 435851 427859 425865 425873
      425883 427893 430898 433903 439905 445902 448897 451889
      451879 453869 455864 457858 459842 462835 467829 472830
      477832 479839 483844 490845 495847 501846 506841 514827
      520815 525802 529787 531774
 0.50 513266 515258 515250 512240 502223 497212 490206 486205
      481205 474207 466212 460215 455217 453218 453223 457226
      459230 458232 453234 450237 452241 458243 464244 472245
      484250 488257 493267 499275 502279 505279 506276 508272
      511269 513266
 0.50 498247 497240 494235 492229 490226 488223 483221 478221
      472224 471229 478232 481237 482241 484240 487239 490241
      493246 496249 498247
 0.50 466692 466687 464684 461680 456677 454675 456673 457670
      455665 451662 446663 443667 440674 442682 444688 443691
      434700 432707 434713 436715 440715 445712 455705 459700
      463698 466694 466692
 0.50 327816 326811 322812 317815 305824 299829 295834 287845
      278856 274862 273865 273869 276870 281869 286866 297857
      306846 314834 322823 327816
 1.00 512260 511255 510249 509243 507240 504236 501233 497229
      496231 498236 500240 502243 504249 505253 508258 511262
      512260
 1.00 500269 500266 499262 498259 496257 495254 493251 491248
      490252 491255 492258 493261 495264 497266 498269 500269
 1.00 506766 505759 504759 501764 498768 497773 496779 495784
      494789 495795 498793 499786 500780 502777 505774 506767
      506766
 1.00 486215 485212 483209 479208 474210 470213 465215 459217
      455221 458224 463226 467225 471220 476219 481218 486215
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 473237 474237 474239 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238
 1.50 481214 479212 476212 474213 472214 468215 466216 464218
      462221 466222 467220 469219 471218 474217 477216 479216
      481214

$$





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