Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS04 KWBC 102233
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
532 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 11/0000 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / GREAT LAKES

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST, THE ONLY PCPN
OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY ON MON. LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER WILL
BRING LOCALIZED MAX TOTALS AOA 0.25" ALONG THE SW LOWER MI
SHORELINE. OTHERWISE, TOTALS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN
0.10-0.25".

ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES, LINGERING WESTERLY TO WSW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHT-MODERATE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" ACROSS THE W-WSW FLOW LAKE
ERIE SNOWBELTS IN NW PA AND WESTERN NY...ALONG WITH 0.25-0.75"
ACROSS THE W-WSW FLOW LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS IN UPSTATE NY.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER...SEE QPFHSD.

HURLEY


DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET.


...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING WILL DEVELOP AS
IT SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
WILL SET UP STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE FROM VT TO ME.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE LOW WILL HAVE 0.5 TO 0.75
INCH PW. THERMAL PROFILES FROM 12Z CONSENSUS SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD NORTH FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE INTERIOR
SNOW ZONE AS THE MOISTURE OVER RUNS THE WEDGE. THEREFORE...SEE THE
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION AT QPFHSD. THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF ME TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ATLANTIC PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO CANADA.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ALSO SEE THE QPFHSD.


...UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. CONTINENTAL AIR WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCH PW ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
BANDING MAY ENHANCE PRECIP (SNOW) RATES TO MODERATE.



HURLEY/JACKSON


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 545041 546030 545023 545014 543007 532982 528976 526969
      522962 516956 508948 504944 501941 501937 497922 495916
      492911 485902 481898 483892 489877 493862 497858 501855
      503852 508847 509841 512833 512825 512820 511816 508811
      503813 498816 488823 484828 476830 472830 469828 465821
      458809 455803 451799 446797 442793 438791 435796 433798
      429800 428792 430790 432788 436787 437786 438782 438776
      440768 442759 445752 449747 457744 461741 464736 466730
      465720 470709 472703 473697 472688 469682 458689 457690
      458694 457698 454700 446711 443711 440714 438717 440721
      441723 440727 435727 430728 428731 429733 441735 431741
      423769 417780 407787 400790 395793 393791 391792 387796
      383799 380804 378810 380810 383808 395802 406794 410791
      412796 412806 412814 411817 413817 416823 414830 413838
      411842 409845 409850 411856 411865 413871 413881 414884
      415889 417894 418903 422910 427915 430921 431928 435944
      435954 436960 436964 438967 438974 440982 434982 431983
      431987 431991 433994 439998 445001 450005 456009 464018
      467023 471026 479034 487040 498047 503050 508054 514059
      516062 521062 525063 527061 529055 532053 535053 539051
      544046 545041
 0.01 493666 493660 490657 488657 486660 485664 483666 481665
      479663 475664 472665 469667 470671 472673 476682 481678
      482683 482687 484687 487684 490677 493669 493666
 0.01 468656 464643 461638 454640 445646 437654 429661 425665
      420670 416672 413677 403684 396691 392697 390702 388706
      386712 387716 389719 393716 412708 415696 418691 420688
      423687 443681 448678 452674 456670 460664 462662 465661
      468656
 0.01 424734 424732 422732 420732 418733 417733 415736 417736
      419736 421736 422735 424734 424734
 0.01 417752 417750 415748 413745 411744 409746 407747 406750
      404752 404757 403760 404762 408763 409759 411757 414756
      416755 417752
 0.25 449660 449655 446654 443656 442658 439660 437663 436666
      435669 437672 440672 443670 445668 447665 448662 449660
 0.25 441750 440749 439750 438752 438753 437756 436758 435759
      435761 435763 436765 438764 439762 440760 440757 441757
      441755 441752 441750 441750
 0.25 441863 436863 434863 431862 427861 424859 422859 422862
      423867 422872 425872 426866 431865 434864 436866 438866
      441863
 0.25 428786 426786 424789 423791 422794 421796 421801 420804
      421807 422804 423801 424798 425796 426792 427788 428786

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 513288 508280 505276 503276 502280 499285 494284 491283
      490281 487275 483273 479273 468272 448270 444267 440268
      432273 429275 430270 433265 437260 444255 451249 460245
      469244 478242 488243 492245 495250 501252 507255 510254
      515256 524260
 0.01 449628 454630 457633 466640 484651 491661 496674 501689
      504712 501720 500726 499732 496738 490751 484763 480777
      482783 485784 486782 489780 491776 493774 495775 499783
      501790 504804 505821 502829 499835 496840 491841 488839
      485842 483849 482857 483865 484872 482873 481876 480880
      477885 472890 467900 462901 461893 461883 460877 458874
      457871 454870 452869 449869 433870 428872 423877 414885
      412878 412870 410864 406859 399851 392841 388836 384834
      380832 377835 373837 370842 368848 358857 355857 354854
      359850 362846 364840 368835 367829 362835 358839 354841
      352839 353832 356824 359820 364816 369812 372807 381798
      388791 393789 397783 398777 397771 396766 393761 392753
      391743 394736 395734 393731 388728 374730 366732 361735
      347750 339760 329766 295794 293788 294783 295777 298773
      301766 304762 307757 309752 311744 312737 316737 318736
      321731 328720 336711 343703 345698 350694 369678 379671
      388664 397656 409647 411644 416642 422636
 0.01 388831 387829 385827 384829 385831 387833 388831
 0.01 386822 384820 383821 381821 379823 381825 383827 385825
      385824 386822
 0.01 376823 374823 372823 371824 370824 369826 371828 373828
      374826 376823
 0.01 290062 290058 288060 286062 284064 282066 280067 278071
      277073 278078 279078 280076 282074 284072 286070 288067
      288064 290062
 0.01 264792 258792 251794 246795 238796 233796 229799 233802
      239803 245801 250797 257796 262794 264792
 0.25 490260 491258 490256 489254 488254 487254 486254 485254
      483254 481254 481257 482259 483260 484261 485262 487262
      488262 489261 490260
 0.25 474715 472704 470697 469691 467685 465681 460673 455664
      454660 450657 442656 438658 433660 430660 426662 423665
      421669 418679 416690 415699 415705 413710 412715 412722
      412734 412745 413759 416770 416777 415781 411789 409794
      409800 412809 414814 418817 426817 433821 441825 450827
      454827 458825 462822 465819 468811 470803 468799 458783
      456780 454775 454770 456764 464747 469740 471736 472730
      474722 474715
 0.25 470873 470870 470868 469865 467863 465862 464862 462862
      461861 460861 459864 460866 460867 461869 462871 464873
      466875 466876 468877 469875 470873
 0.25 448860 444858 439857 434857 432857 427857 424857 419856
      418859 419861 422863 426865 429863 432862 435863 438864
      443864 447862 448860
 0.25 398793 396792 395792 393792 391793 390794 390795 388796
      386797 385800 384800 384802 385803 387803 388802 389801
      390801 392799 393798 395796 396796 397795 398793 398793
 0.25 361720 361719 359720 358721 357723 358724 360723 360722
      361720 361720
 0.50 454703 454695 452688 449675 445671 442672 439675 438680
      437685 434690 428699 425708 422720 421731 423736 427738
      428742 428745 427751 429764 430766 430773 429780 430784
      433783 436781 438777 440772 443766 444758 443751 443747
      444744 446740 447734 447728 446720 449710 454703
 1.00 441704 441701 441699 439699 437700 436702 435703 434704
      433706 433708 435710 437711 439710 440709 440708 441706
      441704 441704

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 487614 493622 499633 504647 509662 512670 516684 520694
      521702 522712 521718 522726 518740 514743 511750 504757
      497763 490767 485768 480772 475780 474786 470791 466794
      461796 457799 456801 456806 456815 455823 454829 452833
      448833 443830 436827 430821 427817 423815 415819 408809
      406804 402799 399800 397803 391810 390816 386818 377815
      371815 368816 367818 363823 360826 358824 362819 364813
      367809 372806 375803 383796 389791 398788 403787 408784
      414774 415772 415767 415759 420749 422744 426743 429745
      434743 437739 437736 436734 432730 434726 437723 440718
      440715 440711 439702 436697 431694 428693 425694 419695
      416696 414701 413713 410723 408726 404730 400733 396736
      391738 388742 382743 379744 377746 371746 368750 358750
      347756 341759 336762 331761 328757 326751 327746 331742
      340736 345733 350729 355723 361717 376703 391690 400683
      405678 410675 413672 417671 421668 424667 423663 420659
      419652 417648 416643 424642 426640 427635
 0.01 540000 539981 536956 536951 535947 533941 530933 528928
      531923 533920 537920 539917 537914 535906 530898 522886
      518882 512879 499875 486866 481864 477860 474858 472853
      470851 466851 465846 461846 460849 456851 450847 443843
      440842 437841 432838 426834 423834 421832 417832 413830
      407833 401839 399843 400849 401854 402857 403861 405864
      407871 411877 418891 422899 426908 432921 433923 436927
      442933 447936 452941 459947 459960 459969 462977 467981
      469982 470989 470991 468994 465994 464996 465999 467002
      473006 480004 490996 491001 493005 496010 496016 498021
      497027 495031 493034 490036 481038 479040 478043 482049
      484051 488052 494048 499044 502034 503023 501020 501016
      502010 507006 509004 510999 519999 522000 524002 535003
      539003 540000
 0.01 454110 455108 454106 453105 453104 452102 451102 450101
      448100 446100 445101 444103 444104 446105 447106 448107
      449108 451109 451110 452111 454111 454110
 0.01 263782 262777 260778 255784 251789 247795 245803 243809
      246813 252808 256802 259796 261788 263782
 0.25 505696 505686 503676 499661 494647 489637 481629 477628
      472629 466631 460634 455643 448655 445659 445666 445683
      446689 447696 455704 457711 459719 460726 463733 469741
      472746 477748 482746 487743 496735 499731 501726 505712
      505705 505697 505696
 0.25 443762 442758 440756 438754 435754 430758 429764 429774
      431783 432785 433790 436788 439783 441777 441767 443762
 0.25 442815 441811 438810 431807 425805 430800 427795 427792
      426789 424789 419792 417796 416800 417806 419808 426809
      430815 435819 440819 442815 442815
 0.25 402701 398700 393701 388703 383706 377713 368720 360726
      357730 356733 358735 363736 369735 375733 379730 387725
      394717 400709 402701
 0.50 495694 495687 494680 492672 486652 481646 475646 463651
      456656 451662 450666 452671 457675 462681 464690 467703
      469711 474718 479719 482718 484712 488708 493701 495694

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.