Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
501 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH-IMPACT MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SPANNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING
IN EARNEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD (SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING)...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EXPECTATION OF
A LARGE SCALE...SLOW MOVING NOCTURNAL QLCS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS AND LOW FFG
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OK AND
NORTHERN TX...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE AREAS WILL BE ENHANCED.

DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS...AS THE MAIN (BROAD) UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
THE NEXT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE ENSUING UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE THE BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
TROUGH-RIDGE ORIENTATION AMPLIFIES (UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED). FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT...THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE STREAM OF
THE BACKED SW-S UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH-RIDGE AXES.
MEANWHILE...INCREASE S-N UPPER CONFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL INDUCE AN ANOMALOUS 90-100 KT SOUTHERLY 250 MB JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ONE WHICH BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD WOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THE ALREADY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN ITS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE ANOMALOUS COOL SEASON DYNAMICAL SETUP WILL COUPLE WITH THE
EQUALLY-ROBUST WARM SEASON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN GENERATING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THIS REGION...PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CLUSTERED CONVECTION PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF ONE MAIN (SIGNIFICANT) QLCS AFTER 00Z. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW (45-50 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ ~850 MB)
AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF
WILL BOOST PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.75-2.00+ INCHES...OR 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM PER THE SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BOTH IN TERMS OF QPF
AND THE AREAL-EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...WILL BE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE DEVELOPING QLCS WILL BE
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL AND OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE (IF NOT HIGHER) THAN THE MEAN
850-300 MB WIND ACROSS NORTH TX INTO OK AND KANSAS... THEREBY
LEADING TO INCREASING UPWIND PROPAGATION AND LIGHT (IN SOME AREAS
EASTERLY) CORFIDI VECTORS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST
MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS LIFTING NNE. HOWEVER...ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS...MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED BETWEEN THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND MEAN WIND...WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW MARKEDLY
HIGHER THAN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHEASTERLY MBE OR CORFIDI VECTOR (15-20+ KTS)...WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN WHY MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM
CONEST...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...NSSL-WRF) BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INTO THE CRP-VIC CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST TX (THOUGH NOT ALL
THE WAY TO BRO AND THE LOWER RGV). FOR NOW...AS AN EFFORT TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAIN IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE/TRENDS...WPC OPTED TO KEEP THE
LOWER DETERMINISTIC QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME EXTENDING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
INTO THAT SAME AREA.


...CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA ACROSS SD CURRENTLY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTER WY TONIGHT AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS INTO NORTHEAST CO.

THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUXES
AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS SAT.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE STATE.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL QPF
ALTHOUGH CUT BACK AMOUNTS A LITTLE AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO THE
SOUTH IN OK/TX MAY INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE.


...GREAT BASIN...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
NV/UT/ADJACENT SOUTHERN ID WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB
VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION
LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THAT REGION. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/NORTHERN NV/NORTHERN UT
COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY.  MANUAL QPF USED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...PLAINS EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES
EAST...INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. A
90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NORTH...WITH VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BECOMING COMMON. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PARAMETERS...HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY IN ANY
CONVECTION...QUESTION BECOMES EXACTLY WHERE...AND DO WE SEE
TRAINING OF CONVECTION TO HELP INCREASE AMOUNTS. THE FIRST ROUND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS TWO QPF MAXIMUM...ONE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SEEMS TO
MAKE CONCEPTUAL SENSE AS WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...GREATER MOISTURE...AND
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AND THE SECOND REGION FOCUSED
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. IF THIS OCCURS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
BETWEEN THE TWO IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HELPING
INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. NOT A SURE BET...AND STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO BREAK THE MODERATE RISK INTO TWO AREAS...ONE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BOTH
SURROUNDED BY A BROADER SLIGHT RISK. OTHER QUESTION IS TIMING. HI
RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. NOT TOO SURE OF THIS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ALIGNED WITH AND STRONGER
THAN THE MEAN WIND...SUGGESTING A BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL. SO DOES
THE FACT THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW FAST EAST ANY MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH THE SLOWER GLOBAL GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE ABOVE REASONS..BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THE FASTER MOTION IS QUITE POSSIBLE...AS CORFIDI VECTORS ARE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST. SO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM IS
QUITE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF HAPPENS...COULD HELP MOVE THINGS ALONG
AND PUSH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER QPF FURTHER EAST QUICKER
THAN FORECAST. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE PERIOD OF POST MCS STABLE AIR
COULD HOLD OFF REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER QPF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL FOR HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AND GIVEN THAT VERY HIGH RATES ARE
LIKELY AND THE AREA HAS BEEN WET RECENTLY...STILL FELT LIKE THE
MODERATE RISK WAS WARRANTED...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO RECOVER FROM
SUNDAYS STORMS...SO GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN SEEMS LIKELY. MODELS HAVE MADE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO THIS WAVE...TRENDING
QUICKER AND A BIT DEEPER. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME AROUND TO THIS FASTER SOLUTION...ALONG WITH 0Z ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...BOTH WHICH SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. GIVEN THAT THIS TREND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND THE
FACT THAT THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MAKE RATHER BIG CHANGES TO THE WPC DAY 3 QPF. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED AND SHIFTED NORTH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. WPC USED A NON NAM
MULTI MODEL BLEND FOR QPF...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS. AGAIN ALWAYS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
HEAVIER RAINS CAN GET IN THESE TYPE OF SETUP...SO THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WHERE
WE WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AS YOU HEAD NORTH...AS DESPITE NORTHEAST MOVING STORM
MOTIONS...ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT ORGANIZES IS LIKELY TO
PROPAGATE MORE EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF INFLOW FURTHER
NORTH AND LIMITING AMOUNTS.

OVERALL WPC USED A A MULTI MODEL BLEND AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE DAY 2/3 QPF...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SOME
BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A SECOND MAX OF QPF IS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED JET STREAK. ON DAY 3...MONDAY THE SECOND MAX
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AREA OF STILL
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES.

HURLEY/CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 523256 525241 528226 528218 526213 520205 518195 517190
      515187 497182 492181 489183 485187 483191 478198 474200
      469197 467193 465187 463177 463173 465169 467165 470160
      473156 486142 490129 488119 487115 487107 487096 480092
      476089 474084 473077 472073 471069 472065 474064 478059
      478053 479035 475014 469989 468983 467975 465962 464957
      461950 457942 452935 449925 447921 447916 443906 434889
      430883 426881 421881 417883 414887 407896 405900 401903
      392907 383911 376902 373898 369896 365898 365902 362912
      355911 352910 347910 339914 332918 324915 319911 313904
      309879 306871 301861 296854 294847 293845 292841 294822
      293818 292815 293812 298811 299808 297798 293789 295784
      298781 299779 299775 298771 294769 289768 283769 280773
      278781 274787 273784 271785 267788 263794 261797 258794
      254793 251798 252804 250810 245811 242815 242818 245819
      247822 250823 251833 255841 264844 267845 273846 285844
      289847 292852 294857 295863 295866 291868 282864 277863
      280868 281873 283879 283885 285891 284896 284903 282908
      281912 280917 281921 282925 285928 286933 288938 285942
      280943 277945 270949 261953 254956 246960 239965 237971
      237978 237981 239981 239984 237985 235985 234988 233992
      231997 232003 235013 236017 239021 250028 256035 259037
      261043 265064 265070 269073 272075 278080 280080 281077
      280072 282066 297061 314052 322044 327038 331036 336038
      343041 350045 354047 359048 362048 363051 360056 357064
      359068 357072 353084 351105 349109 348117 349122 351128
      356136 359140 360143 359147 357151 357158 361166 361170
      358174 357180 358185 368197 374203 382209 391215 394219
      390223 389224 390229 395231 399230 402229 407230 412230
      415227 418223 422222 430224
 0.01 430224 435222 438221 441222 451225 461228 467230 471228
      480229 483228 485230 488235 491239 493243 497247 500253
      505260 509257 512253 516252 520258 523256
 0.01 527949 526923 523906 521894 519886 514869 512859 509851
      505834 500813 495797 493793 492789 491785 490779 488777
      488773 486769 484764 479747 473730 473725 473720 472713
      470711 466709 464707 462701 474675 476668 479660 478654
      477650 472648 463639 449639 442643 438649 436653 437657
      440663 442664 443667 443673 443682 442692 446697 448701
      448705 446715 447722 447727 450730 452738 454740 455743
      455749 460766 462785 464790 466795 467801 472821 474827
      477832 480836 481842 483852 484873 485885 488894 492899
      495906 498914 500918 500924 504941 512955 515960 522961
      525960 526956 527949
 0.01 468075 467073 465073 464075 463075 462076 461077 461078
      463079 465079 466078 467077 468075
 0.01 336174 337172 335171 334169 332169 330168 328168 326168
      325167 326170 328170 329172 331173 333173 335174 336174
      336174
 0.25 471115 472110 472105 471101 468098 456092 452088 451082
      450072 449066 448057 448053 450050 453044 456035 458027
      460018 460011 458003 453986 450978 447973 440966 436963
      433954 433944 432935 424924 422918 417914 412915 407917
      394923 382929 370932 364933 357933 345932 338934 334940
      331944 325947 318949 312951 286960 277964 272968 271974
      269981 266986 261991 255995 244999 242004 240012 244017
      250020 256023 260027 268033 276041 282043 289043 296041
      304040 314034 324029 336023 342021 347023 352025 359026
      366026 372024 389009 394009 397011 397015 395021 389026
      387032 388041 392048 394053 393061 391066 388072 388076
      390077 396081 399085 405091 408096 407102 404109 400115
      399117 399122 399130 396131 392132 388130 387127 389120
      386116 382110 380106 379099 380090 383085 387077 385075
      382074 379072 375073 370077 364087 362093 361098 361104
      360121 362127 365131 371141 375147 377153 381157 384162
      390161 392160 396161 398163 399168 399172 401176 404178
      407178 413175 419162 423159 426154 427145 432140 441109
      445105 450105 454109 459116 462118 466118 471115
 0.25 424100 423098 422095 420094 419095 417097 416097 415099
      416102 418102 420103 421104 422103 423101 424100
 0.25 393198 392195 390195 389197 389198 390199 391200 392200
      393198 393198
 0.25 388194 388191 385189 382186 383184 383181 381179 378176
      376176 372177 368180 369183 372186 374189 378192 383193
      388194
 0.25 272822 272821 271820 270819 268819 267821 267823 269824
      270825 272824 272822
 0.50 449015 449009 447005 441999 436994 434991 431993 427994
      425999 423003 419006 416006 413003 410996 407994 408991
      410992 413993 415992 419989 420980 421970 422958 425948
      425942 423937 417933 414930 408929 398930 384934 376938
      367941 357943 350945 343948 337954 332958 325962 316964
      306965 287966 283967 280970 279978 277984 271990 265994
      260001 255005 251006 251011 253014 256017 262023 268027
      270028 276028 286029 290031 296032 303030 311028 320025
      327021 333018 338014 347015 351018 357019 364018 369018
      372016 381999 387997 391996 395995 398991 402993 403997
      402003 402011 400021 395029 394035 395039 400043 404051
      400062 400068 402073 405079 408077 413077 418078 422076
      429072 433072 435075 438071 437068 436057 436045 439041
      443040 446037 447031 449015
 0.50 378133 379130 380128 380126 379124 378123 377123 376123
      375123 374125 373127 373129 374132 376133 378133 378133
 1.00 427056 427051 427049 425045 424044 420042 419043 417047
      416050 416054 417057 418060 420062 421062 425060 426058
      427056
 1.00 419039 419037 417037 417036 415035 414034 413033 412033
      410033 409035 410036 412036 413038 414038 415040 416041
      417041 418041 419040 419039
 1.00 410956 407953 403954 400957 398955 394946 392942 388941
      378943 371946 355953 341960 328969 321973 316975 313973
      308971 302972 294975 288980 284986 280994 278003 273011
      274016 276018 281018 285016 291012 295010 300010 306013
      309016 315017 322014 329009 337008 343008 347010 352011
      356010 360008 362005 366997 371990 377985 388974 393966
      402964 407961 410956
 1.50 388956 388951 386948 382948 374949 368951 357956 346963
      335969 325976 319980 314983 308987 307979 304977 301977
      297979 292984 288989 286997 286002 287006 291007 296005
      303003 307007 314011 321009 325004 331002 339002 344002
      350006 355007 360002 363996 366990 369985 373978 377973
      383964 388956
 2.00 383954 373953 364955 357958 350963 335972 323983 317988
      313992 312996 312003 315006 317007 321005 326997 337998
      342998 347998 351001 354002 356001 361994 364985 374970
      379963 383954
 2.00 299987 299984 296985 294987 292989 291991 290995 289997
      289002 291003 295003 297001 298998 298994 299989 299987
 3.00 372963 372959 370958 366958 361961 357964 350969 341974
      333980 330984 328987 330990 334992 340991 345990 349987
      353978 357974 361971 370965 372963
 4.00 347980 346978 344977 343977 341978 339979 338980 337982
      337983 337984 339985 341985 342984 344983 345982 346981
      347980

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 539208 540197 540191 540185 537177 533170 526158 518155
      510154 504157 499160 496164 494165 486166 483167 479166
      472164 470160 467159 463160 462163 462168 463171 470174
      465194 466198 468200 471204 469206 462206 460210 461214
      468215 471212 474212 478211 482214 483217 487218 503246
      510258 517263 519266 522264 534228 537218 539208
 0.01 480234 480231 478230 476232 476233 477235 479234 480234
 0.01 494092 493086 490083 487080 484081 482087 479092 477094
      476090 478087 476084 476078 481071 484060 488053 492043
      494036 495028 497016 497001 493971 491957 488944 488936
      489930 489915 489900 488891 487886 486878 485875 484863
      479839 474816 472808 471803 467794 448748 440744 436744
      431745 427746 426749 424763 426785 427798 428804 427808
      416851 413856 412861 407868 400878 395878 390877 381874
      378876 373877 355876 338873 328873 325871 325865 322861
      322857 320853 316851 313847 317844 321840 323836 325824
      324819 321813 323805 319802 316798 303789 283787 272788
      263787 255787 249783 244782 241783 238791 237797 237803
      238812 240818 243823 252827 255825 257820 259825 260830
      264833 267835 276837 283842 291846 283861 279876 283903
      282914 276922 270939 262958 259967 257971 256977 253986
      251992 252994 265998 267001 273001 277003 275005 267012
      267017 268019 272022 279022 284018 291012 300009 305011
      307009 310010 314014 314020 318022 321019 324018 329019
      332021 336020 340018 344015 349016 351013 354011 358014
      364020 366023 370023 374021 377017 382008 386008 386015
      387021 387028 387036 385042 380044 377044 375041 377035
      375030 368034 360038 358042 357048 354057 350059 348064
      350067 349070 343069 340071 337074 334077 336079 346125
      347130 351133 352135 355132 360134 363136 362140 361147
      358151 356149 352151 352155 356158 361161 360164 358165
      358174 359178 357182 354184 352181 353184 358186 362188
      366190 384204 393208 399209 398204 392198 388196 387191
      384186 383180 388179 391183 393184 397181 401183 400187
 0.01 400187 410179 415178 417178 419180 420183 423179 421169
      423167 425168 428170 432171 433166 426160 423156 425153
      429152 430156 433159 437161 441165 443171 435189 434197
      435202 439198 442195 444191 450187 449182 446181 447177
      449175 452176 455179 459180 462175 459171 459165 458161
      460158 458155 457152 452151 446145 441143 440137 439124
      439121 441118 444123 443129 445132 450135 453133 457135
      462136 469133 472131 476134 480135 481132 478129 478124
      475121 477117 476112 477106 488101 492098 494092
 0.01 485743 484730 483723 481718 477712 471708 465704 460704
      459706 450708 444714 440715 439719 447719 447735 450737
      454735 460729 471741 479757 482764 486765 486760 485750
      485743
 0.01 479688 478680 475673 471669 466669 459669 455670 458676
      462681 465685 468692 471697 477694 479688
 0.01 477096 477094 476092 474092 473093 472094 472096 470097
      470098 470099 471100 472102 473101 475099 477096
 0.01 473121 474118 474116 474113 474111 473108 471108 470110
      470113 471114 471116 470118 469116 468117 467120 468122
      470122 472122 473121
 0.01 410204 411202 410201 409201 408201 408204 410204 410204
 0.01 407213 407210 406209 405210 404211 403212 402214 402216
      403217 404217 405215 406215 407213 407213
 0.01 388100 388095 385094 382093 380096 379099 377101 374100
      372098 370100 369104 370106 373109 377107 378105 380103
      383101 384101 388100
 0.01 351104 352101 350099 349097 347097 347096 345094 344092
      342090 341091 342094 344096 345098 347101 347103 348105
      350106 351104
 0.25 528231 531221 531214 530210 522197 519192 515187 511182
      503179 500179 496185 493192 491196 492199 497201 501207
      504226 506232 511238 515242 519249 523249 525241 528231
 0.25 484040 485030 485021 485013 484003 480992 476982 473976
      471970 469963 465957 464953 465944 466935 468927 470920
      471913 470896 469880 468863 468852 466840 464832 462826
      457815 450804 443798 439797 438799 437807 437821 436835
      434849 432858 430865 424876 416885 411888 407890 396895
      391896 384896 376892 370891 365892 359894 353897 342899
      329902 324900 320896 314886 308879 304876 299875 296879
      294884 292890 291896 297906 298910 297913 292918 285926
      285933 283939 280950 276959 273965 271973 270982 271989
      274993 277994 281994 289994 293993 299991 304989 307988
      310990 314994 317998 322000 331003 337002 341999 348990
      352985 357982 365981 369978 378972 383970 390969 400970
      406972 410975 417984 420000 420013 419018 418022 414029
      411042 409049 406054 402056 400063 396073 395079 397085
      399090 404096 406101 408103 411103 415101 418104 421104
      425108 427108 428104 431100 432096 431092 429087 428083
      431080 436077 440076 445079 450082 455080 463072 473061
      479052 484040
 0.25 408156 408152 407149 407145 405144 402143 398142 396143
      395147 396150 399152 402153 402155 404158 405158 408156
 0.25 392146 392144 391142 390142 389141 388142 387143 387145
      387146 389147 391147 392146
 0.50 517214 518209 516203 515198 513194 510191 506190 504195
      506200 507203 511207 513211 517214 517214
 0.50 479034 480030 480025 478019 474006 469996 466991 462988
      457989 455993 452000 448005 442013 436023 431035 428038
      425044 422049 418052 415057 412061 409066 407072 408077
      409078 414075 425075 431073 434071 441070 446072 450072
      453071 457068 464061 467056 471051 476044 479034
 0.50 462864 463852 461842 455829 450822 447820 444823 443832
      441841 435874 431882 427889 415898 403905 398908 394912
      390918 382922 376904 373898 368899 361902 357905 344912
      328917 299922 293926 289932 288941 286949 280963 277970
      275975 273983 279988 284991 290989 297987 302982 309981
      315981 321985 326990 332993 336993 339991 349982 361976
      373969 386963 412954 419951 427950 432951 436949 441945
      446940 450935 454928 457922 460915 461906 463894 462881
      462864
 0.50 306892 307890 306888 305887 305886 303884 302883 300884
      298887 297889 297891 297893 298895 300897 302896 304895
      306893 306892
 1.00 464040 464035 464032 462030 459029 456029 454032 454037
      454042 455046 456049 458051 460050 462047 463043 464040
 1.00 454855 453852 452850 451849 450850 450853 451855 451856
      453857 454855
 1.00 435928 435921 433915 430911 427909 421909 417911 412914
      409919 403928 396932 394938 392943 386943 382940 378937
      373938 362940 361934 361928 361924 360918 356916 353916
      351918 348926 344930 339930 326933 316935 311935 306933
      303929 298928 294932 293937 287958 285969 286974 289979
      291983 296983 299979 302977 310971 316969 323970 328971
      331975 333980 336982 342983 346981 355974 360972 363969
      370964 389956 398951 406947 424936 431933 435928
 1.00 372911 372909 371909 371911 371912 372911
 1.50 367954 366950 363945 359945 355947 352949 346949 341949
      339952 336956 336962 339966 340971 339975 341980 343980
      346978 353972 359967 364959 367954
 1.50 310958 311953 309949 307943 301937 300934 297935 294941
      291949 290958 288968 290972 293975 296975 299973 303968
      308962 310958
 2.00 359958 359954 357953 350952 347954 345956 343958 345961
      347967 346969 343971 341973 342978 346976 350973 354968
      356963 359958
 2.00 305956 306952 305947 304945 303943 300941 297940 296942
      294945 294947 292952 292956 294959 297960 301959 304958
      305956
 3.00 301949 301947 299946 297947 296949 297951 299952 300952
      301951 301949

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 520269 513264 507256 502248 496239 486225 480219 477216
      475211 467195 468188 469182 470179 469175 465176 433191
      425208 421221 420228 418233 411238 404238 399232 399227
      402223 400217 396213 393210 388208 380202 373195 366189
      362186 363183 364179 368178 375174 380168 381161 382154
      382147 379143 374134 369129 362128 356122 352120 348118
      343109 341105 338100 330084 330079 333075 334071 331068
      330064 330056 332055 334058 334064 336068 344070 348068
      351063 353058 354051 358044 361040 362036 364030 367027
      372026 376029 386031 391031 393024 393018 391014 389008
      387006 385008 381006 380004 380000 380993 378990 376990
      372990 369992 366992 351002 354008 354011 352016 348017
      344017 340020 334023 327027 318031 310034 305030 297025
      293023 289020 281014 278013 276007 275004 271003 266003
      264005 260006 255007 249006 245005 235001 231994 231991
      234987 238981 245976 248974 250970 252963 256955 260947
      264937 264933 267928 271921 271905 270892 269888 269883
      269872 266862 260856 256854 252854 245851 231845 227844
      226839 225833 223826 222819 221813 221806 221797 222794
      224790 227788 230784 231780 235778 237775 240775 243777
      250782 261797 267800 272800 275802 281807 284810 288812
      291812 291810 291804 291793 295790 296786 295778 295775
      297775 300776 303778 305785 309791 314794 317796 321799
      327804 343812 346814 352815 355815 358817 361823 366815
      372815 372820 374825 376821 392810 397809 401806 406804
      408801 413792 419785 423778 423773 422768 419737 418733
      420729 419725 421717 413701 412694 413691 412687 414684
      415682 418681 419678 418676 416668 418664 422662 429656
      437650 440648 444646 448645 452646 455645 458647 463650
 0.01 463650 467649 472649 477648 481646 486643 490646 494648
      497649 501650 505648 510647 512649 515653 515656 536722
      534763 534773 533779 534786 532809 530816 528828 526847
      522865 519884 515905 513911 511921 508941 508948 507952
      503960 500967 498977 498983 499988 501996 502006 502021
      501027 502033 509034 513038 516046 516052 515055 511059
      508062 507068 503075 499081 497084 495084 491084 487085
      484085 481082 477082 474082 472093 470096 469098 471100
      476105 480110 484118 488123 493129 501131 503134 506134
      513133 517135 519138 522146 526150 531156 535163 537164
      539159 542151 543138 541132 542124 538118 535115 532114
      531107 526097 523097 521094 517090 516085 518082 521075
      525068 527063 527059 530051 533050 536048 540043 542049
      545058 549066 550072 551076 554082 558091 560104
 0.01 568002 567016 566021 566027 566035 564040 561046 558034
      557027 555021 553010 553004 551998 551990 550985 550968
      549960 549952 549943 549940 550936 550903 549895 551890
      550873 550865 548857 548849 546844 548838 547830 549816
      552808 553799
 0.01 504988 502988 502990 504988 504988
 0.01 469641 467641 465642 467641 469641 469641
 0.01 465097 464095 463094 462092 461089 461087 459084 458084
      456084 454086 454088 454090 455093 457095 458096 460096
      462099 463099 465097
 0.01 389134 390132 390130 389128 387129 385131 385134 386136
      388136 389134
 0.01 389025 390022 390020 390018 390017 389015 388015 386015
      385013 383013 381013 381015 381017 381019 381022 381024
      382026 384027 386027 388024 389025 389025
 0.25 527244 527242 528239 527238 526237 524237 524238 524240
      524241 525242 526244 526245 527244
 0.25 515229 518219 518209 518203 516200 513192 512185 511175
      508169 505162 491162 486163 484169 482176 481183 484189
      489195 494199 496207 499213 501220 506225 512229 515229
 0.25 517782 516768 513758 509751 504746 500738 498734 497729
      498723 498718 497712 495707 491700 485695 482693 481687
      477680 474677 471678 471685 469691 465697 460702 453707
      447713 441729 439739 437747 436770 435781 434792 431801
      429809 426817 425828 426833 430835 436840 441845 445847
      447851 447858 449862 451871 451884 449895 441909 436916
      434920 433926 434933 435937 436948 435956 433960 430963
      427966 425970 426980 428985 431987 435989 439988 446001
      453004 456005 461006 462009 460012 460020 463029 464034
      467036 470033 472029 474020 486982 486974 490964 494955
      496948 502927 504915 505906 511885 513876 514865 516841
      517829 518816 517782
 0.25 472148 470143 470140 468138 468142 465143 460141 456139
      454143 455147 454154 454160 457161 459160 461158 464152
      467150 471150 472148
 0.25 463136 463134 462133 460133 459134 457135 457138 458140
      460140 461138 462138 463136
 0.25 446128 446126 446122 446118 446116 445113 442110 440110
      438110 437114 437119 438122 439125 440129 442132 445130
      446128
 0.25 422891 423885 421881 416876 412871 409864 407855 406850
      403847 395838 392837 390838 385843 378847 373850 359857
      356857 354855 349851 344849 341850 338852 334858 331863
      327869 322875 318876 314875 310872 307866 306863 308861
      307859 298849 294855 290862 288868 289875 289883 287892
      285907 285918 283925 278930 277933 277937 274945 271951
      264962 261968 259974 258979 260983 266986 272988 277993
      282997 285002 290007 295010 302014 306014 311014 316011
      322007 329995 345973 362952 369941 378929 389922 401915
      407911 410905 411900 414898 419895 422891
 0.25 349835 349833 348831 347831 346830 344831 344832 343834
      343836 344838 344839 346839 347838 348837 349835
 0.50 511846 512837 511826 510817 509812 507810 506812 504817
      502824 499828 495825 492819 490813 489805 490796 489791
      484786 474765 468754 463743 460741 457742 453747 451753
      450758 450765 448774 445785 444790 443799 443807 445815
      448819 451823 455828 457835 460848 462854 465859 467866
      468872 468879 468885 468894 468901 466908 464913 461917
      463923 467927 469932 469939 466946 465952 465960 467966
      469971 473975 478974 481970 483964 488953 492942 497929
      503903 506890 509875 510860 511846
 0.50 491769 491767 491764 489764 488765 489767 489768 491769
      491770 491769
 0.50 386915 373876 368876 363877 354881 347885 340891 333894
      324896 320899 317902 312909 297909 290924 282941 278949
      274956 270965 268974 268979 272981 278987 281989 286990
      290997 296002 300005 304007 309008 313005 316997 324980
      328972 335967 342962 348956 358943 362936 370930 378922
      386915
 1.00 497898 498893 496889 492889 488892 483897 480899 477907
      476915 476919 478922 482925 488924 491919 494913 496906
      497898
 1.00 373914 374909 373904 370903 367904 353907 340910 334911
      328914 320914 315916 306924 300927 296931 290942 286947
      283952 281960 281968 284975 287979 295989 300992 303992
      305991 312981 316977 321973 328962 332958 337956 343952
      346947 355940 359936 362929 369923 372918 373914
 1.50 365921 362916 359914 352914 348917 343919 337918 333921
      330924 325926 321925 317924 314925 311928 303935 300937
      298943 294952 290956 288960 287967 288973 294981 297983
      300981 303979 310973 318967 325958 332952 341948 348941
      355936 358931 359926 360923 362922 365921
 2.00 356925 356921 355918 352918 350921 346924 339924 335928
      332932 329939 329943 330945 334946 337946 342943 345939
      348932 352929 356925
 2.00 322952 322946 321943 316939 310935 306939 302945 303954
      301960 301965 302968 305970 309969 314964 319958 322952

$$





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