Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 26/1200 UTC THRU MAR 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...GREAT LAKES...MID-UPPER OH
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...APPALACHIANS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR PICTURE IN
SHEARING AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW/TROUGH NEWD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DAY1. THE COMBINATION
OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM APPROACH AND
DECENT LINGERING LLJ MOISTURE AND WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT SOME
MODERATE LOCAL 1-2" CONVECTIVE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE MID-UPPER OH
VALLEY THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NW/NRN
MID-ATLANTIC AS AIDED BY UPSLOPE. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF
ISSUES CONSIDERING RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES. PLAN TO ISSUE A WPC
MARGINAL THREAT AREA BASED ON QPF POTENTIAL AS PER A COMBINATION
OF THE 00 UTC ARW AND WPC CONTINUITY. LIGHTER PCPN POTENITAL WILL
WRAP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN LEAD
FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM APPROACH. THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME ICE
POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WITH LINGERING LEAD COLD
AIR OVER MAINLY NRN NY/NEW ENG.


...REGARDING UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE CNTL/SRN
PLAINS...

UPSTREAM ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD LOW...A WELL DEFINED UPR TROF
INITIALLY OVER THE SW U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SUN TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY MON MORNING.  STG
RETURN FLOW JET AND CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION
ALONG WITH INCREASING AFTN INSTABILITIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF NRN TX INTO E-CENTRAL OK
AND SRN KS...SPREADING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND SWRLY VEERING LLJ INTO MON. OPTED FOR A
GENL BLEND OF HIER RES ARW GUIDANCE AND WPC CONTINUITY IN A REGION
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC. SOME LOCAL 1-2" AMOUNTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.

...PAC NW/NW CA...

FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT INCLUDES A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS EFFECTING THE LOWER 48 CONTINUES AS AMPLIFIED
NERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE WEST
COAST. LEAD FRONTAL PUSH SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASINGLY SWD AND INLAND EXPANSION OF
WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NRN CA...WITH LIGHTER
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL HANDLING
OF SYSTEM IS REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH ONLY SMALL TIMING/AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE MSTR PLUME BUT
LESS THAN IDEAL FLOW PATRN ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT SOME
WIDESPREAD MODEST .25-.5+ AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN UPWARDS TO
SOME 1"+ TOTALS MOST LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES.
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DETAILS.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 515267 517254 517244 517240 515236 513230 508224 504215
      499200 496191 496186 499185 510187 518188 517184 514181
      512176 509170 504163 502160 499159 491157 485154 479150
      472145 466144 460143 453138 450131 448123 447119 447115
      449111 449106 447103 442103 439104 438107 438113 436119
      434129 431136 425149 423153 418153 415153 413155 403165
      398173 397181 397190 393194 386190 378188 373187 369188
      362190 364195 368201 373205 378209 385212 388214 388217
      382220 378221 373220 367216 363218 366224 371228 374231
      374235 376242 379250 381253 386255 399262 406265 412265
      420266 428267 443268 451270 459273 473278 477280 480283
      488286 495287 502287 507285 510281 515267
 0.01 504764 504754 502748 498738 494727 489718 487713 485707
      476701 461691 453688 444686 440694 439698 436697 426695
      413699 411708 413710 411713 409716 405728 403727 401732
      401738 400744 397753 387774 375789 366795 360801 357805
      351806 346807 343809 337810 331813 317815 308816 301818
      298821 294824 291828 289838 290844 292849 293853 296855
      300857 303856 311850 321843 325841 332839 339840 342843
      343847 342852 339855 334856 328861 324865 324868 328872
      333873 338874 345873 355870 364865 374865 379866 382868
      389873 393876 396880 403889 406892 411894 416896 419898
      417912 417917 419922 421925 426928 431925 433924 434920
      436914 440902 442896 446894 451893 455894 459898 461903
      460910 460916 460930 465930 467928 472920 477910 483900
      490889 498869 502858 503848 505830 507818 505787 504774
      504764
 0.01 455039 456032 456027 454017 451007 450005 446004 439009
      433014 428020 421024 416023 414019 413015 411015 410021
      407023 402019 397012 395009 395003 396998 395992 393981
      393974 393968 396961 398956 399951 398941 395931 394926
      390923 385918 380911 375905 373902 369901 367900 363901
      357905 350910 344916 338921 334927 328934 325940 318953
      316957 315963 314966 313972 313982 324983 341979 350979
      357981 360983 364987 367994 370005 370017 372019 377021
      382026 384029 384033 378036 375037 370039 367041 364046
      359053 358056 362058 371071 376076 378085 381085 384081
      385077 387075 389076 391076 393078 393080 395078 396073
      396066 399065 401067 400072 399076 403074 403069 406068
      408070 410073 413073 418067 418062 415058 416055 418055
      421056 443068 447078 449080 451077 449070 448058 452049
      455039
 0.01 439136 439134 438131 438130 438131 437134 437136 438137
      439136
 0.01 398055 393053 390054 386056 384061 382063 377060 373058
      373062 376066 380069 385069 387065 389062 389059 391057
      397057 398055
 0.01 292809 291805 289803 283799 277796 270795 260796 255799
      253802 256801 263801 269804 274807 282810 289811 292809
 0.01 269826 269820 267816 264814 261811 256810 253809 250808
      251813 254816 257819 260821 263824 267826 269826
 0.01 253806 253804 252803 251804 250806 252807 253806
 0.25 503273 503266 502261 499252 498250 499246 502244 504236
      504229 500220 498216 495214 487209 482207 477207 470211
      465211 462211 455214 446215 440213 437211 430211 418220
      415216 412213 404210 396204 387200 379195 377197 379200
      393213 399218 403221 404224 401228 396228 390227 387229
      388235 390238 396243 413252 423256 431257 449259 459260
      467261 473262 477264 488269 496274 501275 503273
 0.25 484227 482225 481224 479224 477225 479226 480228 482228
      484227
 0.25 496812 497806 496801 494794 490775 479748 471738 462731
      460730 457732 457739 459756 460766 460776 461786 463795
      465805 464813 459816 456818 455823 456828 455832 454835
      452837 448841 446845 446848 448850 453852 455857 458864
      459871 463874 468872 473869 477865 483852 488836 493825
      495817 496812
 0.25 469180 471178 470175 468174 467171 464169 459167 456162
      451157 446153 442151 440154 440158 442164 446169 446176
      442181 440187 441195 441199 442203 446203 450200 454196
      462186 469180
 0.25 425232 424230 423229 422228 421226 419225 418225 418226
      418227 419230 420232 422232 424232 425232
 0.25 431761 430755 428752 421750 416750 412753 407759 402766
      399773 396781 390787 385794 379798 371800 363805 359807
      357810 353816 349824 347833 350837 353834 356828 363823
      365820 367822 367827 367832 366841 368845 372846 382843
      386842 389842 392845 393850 395854 397857 401859 405860
      412863 415863 414857 409850 407847 410845 412842 413836
      414827 414820 416817 419813 420808 420798 419789 416779
      418774 421772 428767 429768 430764 431761
 0.25 389956 388945 384934 379927 375917 373913 369910 363910
      358912 351917 344923 338930 332939 330948 330954 332960
      332965 334969 337971 340970 345969 356968 360970 364974
      370980 374990 376991 378991 381988 384984 386979 387972
      387965 389956
 0.50 497268 498264 498260 497255 493248 491243 488240 483242
      481242 480236 478231 473230 470231 462231 453233 448233
      444230 451227 459227 462224 463218 457216 454216 446217
      437218 429219 426220 426223 428226 431230 435231 438232
      438234 434235 425235 417232 413229 414226 414220 412216
      407215 402212 396206 392204 389204 391209 395212 398216
      403217 406221 406227 406230 404234 401237 402240 411246
      419251 425253 443254 460254 479257 489263 494267 497268
 0.50 499235 499228 497223 495220 492216 489213 485213 481212
      477215 481219 485221 489222 492227 493230 496235 499235
 0.50 491810 491802 490795 488788 485783 482781 479786 478790
      478800 477815 476821 473825 469836 469843 473848 477848
      480844 484834 488821 491810
 0.50 461181 461178 459178 456178 453178 451180 449182 448185
      448187 449189 451189 453187 455186 457184 460183 461181
 0.50 415762 413760 411761 408764 405769 403776 398784 394790
      388797 385803 381811 374827 374832 375837 377837 381834
      386829 395826 407820 412814 413809 412803 410793 411782
      411772 415763 415762
 0.50 381974 381968 380964 375956 364943 364938 367935 371933
      373929 373924 371920 368917 364914 361914 358916 352921
      345926 339933 335940 334945 334952 334956 337959 345964
      353963 357963 361965 368970 373976 376979 378979 381974
 0.50 366811 364810 362811 361812 360812 359813 358814 357815
      356817 356818 355819 354821 356822 358822 358821 359820
      361819 362818 363817 364816 364815 365813 366811 366811
 1.00 476245 475238 472238 470239 465241 463242 459241 455238
      449238 439239 433239 426238 413236 414240 417241 422244
      434246 446248 458247 463246 470249 474248 476245
 1.00 455221 454220 452220 450219 448220 447219 445220 443220
      442220 441220 439221 441224 442225 443225 444225 446225
      448224 450223 451222 452221 453221 455221
 1.00 393800 389808 395807 401801 401794 393800
 1.00 355943 355940 354938 351938 348939 346941 345944 344947
      344952 346952 350952 352951 354948 355945 355943

$$





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