Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061907
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 07/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST

THE WELL DEFINED VORT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE NEW DAY 1
PERIOD AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WELL DEFINED UVVS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL LINGER EARLY DAY 1 FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST---SUPPORTING MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED
OVER NEW ENGLAND AS THE HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT MOVE ANY FARTHER NORTH
AFTER EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

SOUTH FLORIDA

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA---BECOMING STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER
POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE
DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT NORTHERN
PLAINS BLIZZARD WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO DAY
1.  WHILE HIGH WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES---PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MAX AMOUNTS SHIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  ADDITIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST
MN.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THEY ROTATE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD MEAN
TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.  PW VALUES REMAIN LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WITH VALUES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD LATE DAY 1 FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  AT THE MOMENT---THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
TOTALS IN THE .10-.25" RANGE FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DAY 1---WITH
HEAVIER TOTALS LIKELY DAY 2.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 541788 536757 530724 518699 514691 511687 503678 499675
      495676 485674 464675 450674 446675 444674 437675 434676
      433679 429683 427690 423684 422677 420672 414660 413656
      411654 407652 399647 396646 392647 383649 373657 360677
      355679 351681 342688 335695 331700 331706 332712 331715
      332724 339733 345737 348738 349740 353744 356750 358755
      359761 361767 365771 373778 376781 379786 380792 378796
      374801 370806 366811 360820 357825 355830 359836 362832
      367829 375822 382816 388811 393810 401807 405807 408808
      430814 434817 437821 444829 448833 450838 454842 455845
      454847 455855 460853 467865 467871 466878 464888 463895
      459907 457911 457920 460925 460932 462936 461939 459940
      459944 459950 457954 457962 460976 464981 468984 472984
      475987 478989 480992 481997 483002 493008 498011 501008
      509004 518005 521005 522001 525994 528989 532975 538960
      539945 539925 541891 540878 540867 541858 539848 539827
      540819 540810 541788
 0.01 462181 463175 458173 457170 457166 459159 461153 461146
      461141 460139 458138 453141 449140 445138 441134 438131
      439127 437122 441118 445114 446106 443098 435091 432087
      427085 425084 426089 428095 428100 423101 421103 420108
      416109 413105 411099 414092 417081 419076 424074 426069
      425064 425057 424051 420044 419036 418029 418020 415010
      411005 408003 405991 405984 403978 403970 402965 401960
      396959 374999 374005 376010 379013 382017 382025 384031
      383038 383042 381044 374044 372047 367048 360049 356051
      355055 356057 358059 361059 366056 370055 375055 378059
      378062 375062 371060 366060 361062 357062 359067 362071
      365074 370074 372080 375085 382087 382089 380091 378094
      379097 387092 391089 395087 401081 403078 405080 405089
      404099 404104 402106 392109 387110 383113 380115 377119
      375124 374127 376129 380128 384126 392121 398121 400124
      399128 396135 395142 397155 399160 403165 406168 407172
      409177 411182 410191 407196 410204 414205 417203 419204
      421202 420200 420195 424190 428185 431181 431177 430173
      431169 428161 425155 427147 432150 435154 437158 440161
      447174 451178 447181 443183 442186 445188 447189 450193
      452192 455187 462181
 0.01 428274 429265 429257 426242 424234 421228 418226 417223
      418213 413209 406207 393199 381192 377194 379195 382200
      385203 389204 392207 396212 399220 397224 394225 388222
      386221 383223 379223 377221 375218 372217 370218 369222
      366231 364241 364248 363257 361267 360272 362275 366280
      370284 376284 383283 407278 418277 423277 428274
 0.01 384934 384927 381926 378925 375929 371934 370940 370947
      370954 373961 379961 380961 382956 383949 383940 383936
      384934
 0.01 327945 327941 327937 327932 327928 325927 321928 319930
      319932 319937 319939 321943 321946 323948 325947 327945
 0.01 284790 281787 276788 273792 270791 271789 270783 267780
      265779 262780 259783 253790 249794 247798 240817 232836
      229845 228850 230855 234856 237853 243844 247836 251836
      257834 264829 267827 270821 275814 280803 283796 284790
 0.25 533830 533818 531806 528798 524797 522802 518806 516809
      512810 510811 510815 509820 509831 504872 504884 506893
      507904 509916 512934 514947 514952 512956 508961 502963
      494962 492963 491967 493973 494979 497980 510987 513988
      517987 520980 523968 524957 526948 528941 530930 530915
      531904 532893 533882 533867 533849 533838 533830
 0.25 483862 483859 483857 482854 482852 482851 481849 480847
      480845 479845 478844 477845 476846 476847 476850 476852
      476855 476857 477860 478862 479865 481865 482864 482863
      483862
 0.25 434773 432766 429760 422748 418743 415739 409725 407717
      408710 405689 404680 402671 398665 394661 389660 384664
      380669 379672 378677 379691 376697 371702 367714 365721
      366728 370743 370750 371761 372765 374765 381765 388765
      394767 415776 425777 431776 434773
 0.25 404266 406261 405257 401251 396245 393242 390241 383240
      380241 377244 376249 376255 377263 383268 392271 399269
      404266
 0.25 408056 408054 408052 406052 404052 402052 401051 399052
      398053 398055 398056 400057 402057 404057 406057 407057
      408056
 0.25 395069 395066 394066 393064 391065 390066 389067 389068
      388070 387072 388073 390075 392074 393073 393071 394070
      395069
 0.25 374066 373065 371065 370064 370063 369063 369064 371066
      373067 374066
 0.25 260793 259791 256793 252801 248808 244817 241824 240828
      239833 240835 242831 247825 250816 254808 257801 260793
 0.50 527862 527852 527847 525844 521839 517840 514845 511852
      509859 510867 513874 516879 519880 522879 524873 526865
      527862
 0.50 404725 403715 402704 400695 397686 395682 393681 390683
      389686 386702 385709 384713 380715 376719 375722 375728
      376735 375744 374752 373756 375758 380757 387754 392751
      398747 401741 403734 404725

$$





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