Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 29/1200 UTC THRU JUL 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

A VERY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD THRU MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..AS A VERY MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE..MORE THAN SEVERAL HARD TO TIME H5 S/WVS AND/OR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IMPACT THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT
AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS
LEADING TO MORE LATE DAY AND EVENING CONVECTION.

THE LATEST MODEL QPFS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES PERTAINING TO
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR..SO ENDED UP TAKING
A MANUAL BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.  ONE AREA THAT
SEEMS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO HEAVIER RAINS IS EASTERN NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS..WHERE INITIALLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET ON THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER PWS SUPPORTS
THE ACTIVITY.  A SEPARATE AREA WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE
SETTING UP WILL BE ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE UP TO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF WY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON THE APPROACH OF A
MID LEVEL VORT FROM THE NORTH AND THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THE REGION
WILL BE IN A REGION OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE BY 30/00Z.  WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOLD BE FURTHER OUT OVER THE
PLAINS...PW VALUES IN THE AREA SHOULD STILL BE RUNNING 1.25 TO
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1.50 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL MORE ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY BACK IN THE SAN
JUANS AND ALSO INTO THE WASATCH..AIDED BY THE ONE OR MORE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.


...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE BEST DYNAMICS HAVE PULLED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF
NEW ENGLAND AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  THE
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SO A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE SHOULD WORK WELL.  ENOUGH DRY AIR
MOVES OVER THE REGION TO BRING PCPN TO AN END BY TUE AFTN.


...GREAT LAKES REGION...

A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP LIIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PCPN WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.


...IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND FL...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FL REGION DURING
THE PERIOD.  THE UKMET QPF LOOKS A BIT TOO HEAVY (AS IT OFTEN CAN
BE)..SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH
SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 547833 547818 544806 541796 537789 533782 529776 522770
      518769 514769 505771 503771 502768 502762 500754 497752
      493752 490755 487760 484764 483769 481779 476784 472783
      469779 465770 460763 458761 455761 451760 447761 443763
      440768 439772 437775 435778 431780 423783 418785 416790
      415793 415797 413798 408802 408808 413809 409817 407834
      402840 398848 399860 402866 402871 403873 405875 409876
      418879 422880 423884 422886 423890 425890 426887 428888
      430892 433900 436907 442915 451917 457920 462927 468930
      471928 476930 483933 489936 493937 496936 501934 502931
      503928 505928 507931 512934 515930 516924 515917 513912
      509906 504901 498896 491889 480879 474875 471872 468868
      467862 468856 473851 491854 494852 497855 500860 505867
      508871 512874 518877 525876 532870 537864 541855 544847
      547833
 0.01 496662 495653 492646 488643 483643 472642 467644 465647
      461648 453656 449662 448667 449677 453681 465678 469677
      470680 473677 476672 482672 487671 489668 493667 496662
 0.01 465144 465139 464134 462126 461122 458120 455116 455110
      458103 458094 455079 453075 454068 449063 445061 443059
      442055 442051 442045 443043 444036 442033 435030 430027
      428025 422020 419013 419009 422008 424004 424999 422992
      420987 416980 412975 407968 402963 396959 392954 382943
      370936 368942 371949 375957 378965 384977 386985 388992
      390997 390003 389007 387007 384004 380997 376991 370978
      367972 362966 353956 347952 343949 339948 332947 326947
      322951 319952 319957 319967 321975 322978 322981 321984
      316978 311971 307965 304958 301954 297953 295954 296960
      297963 299966 303973 308980 313990 317997 318003 323019
      331028 334031 334037 326040 319043 314047 310053 305059
      302063 300065 294069 287072 283072 275070 269068 258061
      247053 240049 238047 235049 230055 233059 243070 254080
      258086 263089 269091 273095 281107 284110 288113 297113
      306113 310109 315106 324106 330104 335099 341093 346088
      348086 351086 356088 359089 361087 365085 369093 370097
      368101 367106 369109 373113 372127 374136 383147 384150
      382153 378160 377178 377182 371180 367179 365181 364184
      366186 369190 373192 380196 387199 392204 397208 403205
      406205 409202 417203 422204 426202 428199 430190 429185
      427181 424175 422169 421161 421157 424155 426152 427147
      430137 432140 432145 434153 435157 437158 442161 451162
      457157 465144
 0.01 444218 445211 441209 437209 434212 430214 426215 423216
      419213 415212 414219 410228 411232 416233 418223 421227
      425227 432223 440220 444218
 0.01 363663 337685 325696 311708 298720 288731 276743 271750
      268752 265757 261763 257771 254779 253787 252791 253796
      253807 249829 248850 250857 251868 255890 255901 256907
      258911 262918 264921 268923 275919 279919 281922 282929
      284932 290939 293941 297942 303935 304924 303918 301913
      301907 299903 298895 296883 295877 294870 294859 295849
      297839 298834 298831 301830 306826 305820 304817 303813
      303810 304804 308796 313789 318783 322776 328770 334765
      339760 365737 371730 379724 391716 400709 406703 416689
      419681 421669 421651 420645 418644 408647 391654 380657
      376656 370658
 0.01 413188 413186 412186 412183 411181 411178 410177 408178
      407180 406182 405184 405186 407189 409189 410190 412190
      413188
 0.01 394188 394186 393184 392181 390179 390178 389176 387176
      387175 386173 384175 384177 384179 385181 385182 386183
      387185 388186 389186 390188 391188 392189 394188
 0.01 387822 386815 384811 382809 378807 374805 371808 371813
      370817 372820 376821 379825 383825 386822 387822
 0.01 367768 365766 363764 359763 357763 354763 350764 348765
      349769 351771 353773 355773 359773 362772 364771 367768
 0.25 451105 453102 452100 451097 445091 442087 437083 434083
      434080 440075 447075 442072 438067 435059 431046 426040
      422035 417031 412027 406025 398023 392021 387019 383015
      380009 377000 374994 366982 360973 355968 350966 344969
      341976 339983 340992 341999 344004 346010 348017 343035
      342044 342049 340052 336052 330053 327057 330059 333058
      340056 345053 349053 353054 359056 362055 366056 367062
      366065 367067 369069 372077 377089 378094 380094 385095
      389091 391086 395099 397106 396108 393110 388112 385113
      383112 381113 383117 385121 389116 392113 397113 404115
      409119 412125 418128 420126 420123 416119 417115 420113
      423111 427111 439108 446108 451105
 0.25 448804 449797 448794 446793 441796 437799 435801 431802
      429799 425801 421808 418813 419820 420828 425828 431827
      439823 446817 448807 448804
 0.25 439844 437842 436844 437846 439844 439844
 0.25 427101 426097 423093 421088 420083 416081 413085 412087
      413090 412094 413100 417102 420105 423105 427101 427101
 0.25 398663 396661 393661 389663 378670 369677 360685 351693
      342700 332707 324715 316723 308733 306738 306741 307744
      320740 332737 346732 355726 364717 377698 386691 392681
      396671 398663
 0.25 402144 402141 402139 401137 400136 399135 397135 396136
      395136 394137 393137 392138 390139 389141 388143 389145
      391146 393145 394145 395145 396144 398145 400145 402144
      402144
 0.25 403100 403097 403095 403093 403092 402090 401089 400090
      399092 398094 397097 397099 399100 401101 402101 403100
 0.25 365068 366065 364063 362063 361062 359062 358062 357064
      357067 358068 360069 362069 364068 365068
 0.25 354073 353071 353069 351070 349072 347071 346072 346074
      347075 349076 351076 352075 353075 354073
 0.25 335088 336086 335085 335084 334082 333082 333079 333077
      332076 331075 330075 329075 328077 328079 329080 330080
      332081 331084 332086 333088 335088 335088
 0.25 313090 309085 304083 299080 296079 293079 287080 283079
      279080 280084 284088 288089 293087 299089 306089 313090
 0.25 300789 301784 300778 296773 296756 290755 284757 278761
      274767 271774 269780 268798 263805 266808 266827 260832
      258837 257847 258858 258867 259874 263892 266899 269898
      270895 269874 269863 267855 266851 266846 268837 271830
      275832 279833 281835 284836 288833 293829 296823 298816
      298805 300789
 0.50 445101 444096 442092 438089 433090 428088 424089 425094
      427096 430101 434104 439104 442103 445101
 0.50 432068 432062 430057 429050 417039 405031 389025 386024
      383021 380015 373999 366986 361980 355976 352976 349979
      347987 347994 348998 351006 352017 352022 349031 350037
      352040 356042 360040 366042 369045 370048 373051 377053
      388061 395064 399066 398069 396071 392073 388072 386074
      387076 389079 395085 395088 396091 398089 400082 402079
      405077 412073 417070 423071 429071 432068
 0.50 410110 411108 411105 411103 410101 410098 409096 409093
      408093 407092 406093 406095 405098 405100 405102 404104
      404106 403107 404107 405109 405110 407111 408112 410110
      410110
 0.50 406063 405062 403062 402062 401062 401065 403066 404065
      405064 406063
 0.50 384680 384675 381673 375678 370683 366688 360693 354698
      353701 352706 356707 361705 368702 374697 379692 383686
      384680
 0.50 294815 294813 294811 293809 292807 291807 290808 289809
      288810 289812 290812 290814 292816 294816 294815
 0.50 289803 288797 286791 286785 285781 283779 277780 277786
      278790 279793 282794 284796 283802 286806 289803
 0.50 264866 264864 264862 262863 262864 261866 262868 262869
      264868 264866
 1.00 427056 419050 412043 408040 405036 396031 391031 387034
      383037 382040 383044 389052 398056 403055 406055 408056
      418061 422060 427056 427056
 1.00 377028 377022 376017 373008 370999 366991 363987 359985
      355988 354994 355005 356016 357022 357029 362029 366030
      371031 376030 377028
 1.50 399044 401039 398039 396036 394037 391038 390041 389045
      390047 392050 395051 397048 397046 399044
 1.50 372017 372012 371007 369002 367998 365994 362990 360989
      359996 359003 360007 362012 363017 366020 369021 372019
      372017
 2.00 369012 369011 368010 367008 367010 368012 369013 369012

$$




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