Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301708
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1207 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 31/0000 UTC THRU FEB 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SHORTWAVE INITIALLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ROUNDS THE WEST COAST
RIDGE AND INVADES MONTANA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS SOME 750-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE REGION, SQUEEZING
OUT LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.  KEPT
REASONABLE CONTINUITY HERE SINCE IT RESEMBLED A COMPROMISE OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS.  SEE THE HEAVY
SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION AND WPC WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES ONLINE
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


SOUTHWEST/PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST DOWN INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO, BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST MEXICO, WITH GULF MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO SHORTWAVES
MOVING AROUND THE SYSTEM`S EASTERN PERIPHERY.  THIS BRINGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS) TO 3-4 SIGMAS ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF JANUARY, CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY.  SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS PERIOD
INITIALLY DUE TO DECENT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE
MEXICO/TX/NM BORDER, AND ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL NEARBY -- USED THE 00Z GEFS- AND CLIMATOLOGY-BASED REFORECAST
AS THE MAIN GUIDE FOR QPF ADJUSTMENT IN ARIZONA.  FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD, COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PIECES
OF GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  THIS LED TO AN
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXIS ACROSS
WESTERN TX AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
(MATCHING THE GUIDANCE TREND) WHEN COMPARED TO 12Z WPC QPF
CONTINUITY, RESEMBLING A 12Z GFS/12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE, CLOSE TO THE 12Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED QPF.
SEE THE HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION AND WPC WINTER WEATHER
PROBABILITIES ONLINE FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


MAINE
~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A CYCLONE TRACKING
BY NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD, AND THE WPC QPF WAS ADJUSTED TO MATCH
THE TREND, MOST RESEMBLING THE 12Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED
QPF, WHICH IS CLOSE TO A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE QPF
GUIDANCE.  COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AIDED BY A REGION OF
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  SEE THE HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION AND WPC WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES ONLINE FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 447609 480611 494627 496635 497647 495655 496660 499663
      502668 504675 505681 505685 501693 494702 489708 484714
      476722 466732 460734 457734 453733 443726 436727 433728
      431731 427729 431723 432718 430716 423716 421715 418712
      415711 413713 409719 404718 400712 397705 395697 394687
      396680 396675 395669 395662 397656 399648 416632 447609
 0.01 223067 230073 235075 239079 246086 245088 248094 254099
      260104 267109 274116 275119 276123 275125 271130 270133
      273139 276142 283149 289154 294160 299159 304160 308163
      313165 322170 328172 333175 341182 345182 348177 350174
      351171 354171 357170 363170 371168 375168 379165 386159
      390156 394153 398150 400145 405133 410126 415120 416117
      415113 412111 414099 414092 411089 408088 408083 411078
      414074 414069 416064 415061 411058 405051 401043 400037
      403033 407031 412031 416031 418025 420019 421010 424997
      425989 426983 429973 430969 430962 430947 428933 420911
      415901 410891 400876 387865 384866 380869 380878 379885
      379892 378899 373909 372914 371919 370931 368936 369939
      362945 320957 303962 296965 285968 276972 270979 262988
      260991 254992 251998 254002 251005 245010 242013 241018
      239030 228030
 0.01 546172 547162 548153 546135 544129 542124 537113 533100
      527088 523078 519064 510037 506028 501018 495008 492003
      489995 482987 475981 470981 467989 466998 465004 461017
      459022 456027 454032 453042 455043 456047 458050 458054
      461065 468073 468082 467093 467110 470114 470122 471129
      472134 480142 484146 488153 499170 505182 506189 508197
      510202 513205 518217 525228 528229 531226 532221 536208
      538203 540194 544182 545175 546172
 0.01 509934 509919 507914 507906 505896 501890 499886 501881
      503870 504860 502849 501844 498842 492842 490840 481840
      478832 477825 478820 478812 477805 473798 470793 466791
      461792 455793 453796 445809 442808 440810 439816 439820
      439825 438828 438832 442834 438839 440842 442848 443858
      447867 456883 459890 460893 463898 466907 470915 479928
      484934 491940 496943 499945 504945 507939 509934
 0.01 438784 437775 436765 436761 434759 430757 426757 423756
      421759 422763 424765 426770 430774 433776 434780 435788
      438784
 0.01 390038 390036 391034 391032 391029 389027 388029 387029
      386031 386033 386034 384036 384038 384040 383040 383042
      383043 385045 387045 388043 389041 389040 390038
 0.25 535174 537166 536158 534150 529131 524113 520104 518102
      516102 514105 512110 509108 505101 503101 503108 506117
      507120 510124 509133 507140 507148 509157 512168 515176
      523180 528177 532178 535174
 0.25 483646 483637 481631 477628 473628 463629 453632 444639
      439645 426659 414675 412681 412687 416696 419700 423702
      432702 453699 463695 470689 476681 479676 480671 481657
      483646 483646
 0.25 226052 234070 239071 244073 247077 250082 251085 255089
      262093 268098 273106 278113 281116 286120 291127 293132
      287132 286136 287140 294145 296148 300150 300148 303144
      305140 305135 309132 314132 323130 330130 337132 343135
      352139 356137 359134 363131 367130 371129 377128 381125
      382121 382117 381111 383104 385100 389096 392094 393089
      397078 399071 395062 389055 383054 382052 379050 375052
      371053 367050 363050 358050 356047 354043 355039 363019
      365016 369012 376004 383999 394000 398000 402997 406989
      410981 413970 414960 414954 413945 410933 408928 405922
      403919 398918 394919 392923 385943 383955 379967 373976
      369979 365978 362976 357974 353973 348973 339975 332978
      324982 314988 306994 298998 290001 281005 277011 278022
      276033 274038 272044 276055 277057 273060 270061 265061
      257057 238051 227037
 0.25 297145 297143 295143 295145 296146 297145
 0.50 474654 474648 473642 468639 461638 456639 450642 445647
      441653 436659 432664 430670 427678 427686 432691 437693
      445692 452691 464683 469677 471670 474655 474654
 0.50 405968 406961 405956 403952 399952 395954 392956 390961
      389965 389971 391976 393979 398980 401978 403974 405969
      405968
 0.50 381083 381078 380073 377071 376069 375065 371063 368063
      369068 372071 372075 373082 375085 380085 381083
 0.50 365123 366121 364119 362119 359118 354115 350109 347101
      342089 340081 339077 336074 313090 308089 301086 290079
      287074 282074 280071 284066 288065 294066 300065 306062
      312060 317059 325062 328061 332059 332055 330052 329048
      331044 348026 352020 356009 356000 354991 350986 345986
      341986 335988 330991 324995 317000 311006 307012 303017
      299023 296029 292035 290038 290043 292048 291054 287060
      284063 280065 268068 260065 253061 248058 243058 239058
      236061 236065 244069 260088 266093 272099 277105 282111
      288114 294119 297124 298127 301127 309126 312124 316121
      321116 329115 334115 338117 341122 346126 348123 351124
      365123
 0.50 366103 365099 364096 363094 362092 360089 357087 355090
      354093 354097 355100 357102 359103 363104 366103
 0.50 303138 303135 301133 299135 300137 300139 301140 302139
      303138 303138
 1.00 468659 465655 460653 453655 449660 445664 443669 443674
      444678 448680 453678 460674 464670 467665 468659
 1.00 299105 299101 298098 292096 286089 282086 279082 272077
      267073 263072 260071 258073 257076 262084 267088 271091
      277098 284105 289107 295107 299105
 1.50 287099 287097 287095 285094 284093 282092 280091 278091
      277092 278094 280096 281097 283098 285099 286099 287100
      287099

$$





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