Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 17/0000 UTC THRU AUG 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY 1 WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROF PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION.  THIS TROF
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY--SENDING A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE MN/IA BORDER EARLY DAY
1---ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY THURSDAY EVENING.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
A NORTHERN PRECIP MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP AREA STRETCHING ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO EASTERN MN---WI---THE NORTHERN L.P. OF MI AND ACROSS
THE U.P.  HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED OVER MN WHERE THE COMMA HEAD IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH 1-2" AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS DEPICTED.  PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WI AND INTO BOTH THE L.P. AND U.P. OF MI.  THIS
SHOULD KEEP AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS LOWER HERE---ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY---LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY

THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID
MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.  FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KS/CENTRAL
MO---INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK---SOUTHERN MO---AR---NORTHEAST TX
AND NORTHERN LA.  THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND QPF TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS--LEADING TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE PRIMARY SURFACE
CENTER.  THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF--NAM CONEST
AND HI RES ARW ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH .50-1" AMOUNTS DEPICTED.
LESS ORGANIZED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY FROM THE FL PENINSULA---ACROSS
THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LEE OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THURSDAY.  MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 526897 525888 522881 518873 514865 505850 497837 485823
      475809 463792 458787 452782 442776 435772 429770 422769
      416765 411759 403755 400753 395754 387758 381764 376766
      370767 362768 354766 342766 338764 341760 358739 361731
      361727 359725 356723 350724 342728 325735 318741 313749
      303765 296779 294786 294789 293793 290800 285801 282799
      275796 266795 259794 253798 251798 247802 242810 241814
      242820 244825 247820 248816 250816 251818 257823 266835
      268843 269846 272847 276849 280849 283848 286845 289843
      293844 295845 299844 300841 303838 314838 328833 329838
      332839 337839 341841 346844 348848 350852 347857 342862
      340864 337864 333863 327864 323870 315883 313883 311881
      311877 310871 309868 308863 306860 302858 297859 293866
      291868 292872 292880 291883 291889 291903 291910 290914
      290920 289926 292930 296931 301931 303930 304933 304938
      303943 301950 301955 302959 308975 309978 309984 309990
      311994 309998 309005 309011 315012 318014 319020 319027
      322030 324035 326038 334041 355043 360045 367045 372044
      375042 380037 393032 395028 394025 388020 376019 367018
      356017 353017 351014 350009 347999 346993 351990 358987
      364982 370979 374974 381959 388945 392937 397931 404925
      407922 411920 417920 420921 422926 423934 425941 424947
      423952 424964 427975 428979 431980 438983 445984 453982
      466978 473974 479969 493957 499950 502944 504939 518930
      523910 526897
 0.01 224062 230071 236075 241079 249086 258094 270098 277098
      282093 292090 296090 299089 301087 301084 299078 296074
      294065 291060 289054 294050 296048 301049 304044 306041
      306034 302029 298029 296027 283024 270019 260014 251006
      247002 243998 240996 237995 234995 233997 232008 229019
 0.25 508900 509892 508882 504870 497857 490846 478829 459813
      452809 440806 434805 428803 420796 417795 414797 411801
      409806 405810 399813 395818 389829 382838 380842 378849
      378856 377861 379864 380869 382871 389870 393868 395862
      399859 406858 413857 420858 421861 421865 421874 420882
      418888 416893 415898 416901 420902 424902 426904 429909
      431916 432924 433930 433938 432946 432966 435973 440976
      445976 450975 460970 477954 491937 498927 501919 504912
      508900
 0.25 395789 396785 394781 392779 388779 382781 377785 373788
      368791 363794 359800 357805 356807 356812 356819 355823
      356827 360828 364823 367818 371813 380806 388798 392794
      395789
 0.25 400908 398903 394899 386897 381898 377901 372905 366908
      360905 357905 352909 344919 340923 334925 329930 325934
      321945 319953 318962 318970 319978 321979 325980 328973
      330969 333968 334971 335974 338977 344980 357976 362974
      368971 373968 376963 381949 385936 391923 396915 400908
 0.25 343794 343788 341785 336787 333789 328796 322803 316807
      312810 307810 299809 287808 267810 265812 266817 271824
      279827 288829 291830 295830 303826 311823 319818 326814
      333808 338802 343794
 0.25 287079 286070 282063 278057 272051 260043 246035 239032
      234033 231036 228043 227048 227054 229062 234067 246077
      258086 266090 269091 273091 285082 287079
 0.25 260809 260808 258809 258811 260810 260809
 0.50 501906 501893 501887 499881 496869 492861 483846 473830
      468826 463819 460816 456814 447814 440815 432819 428821
      426827 427834 429838 432847 430854 431866 430871 431878
      433881 432886 433889 437890 433907 436916 438926 440931
      440937 436945 435950 436957 435963 437968 439972 443973
      450971 457967 463962 470957 476951 485938 490931 495922
      499914 501906
 0.50 431890 430889 429890 427890 427893 429891 430890 431890
 0.50 379945 380940 380934 378928 377923 373918 368916 362917
      355920 348924 343928 337935 335937 330937 326940 325944
      323952 321964 323967 326964 328960 332959 343971 357972
      364969 370965 375958 378949 379945
 0.50 299817 297814 293813 288812 283813 279812 275815 274820
      278823 281824 287824 292823 296822 299818 299817
 0.50 282076 280070 276065 266056 258049 245043 240041 236041
      232043 230047 230055 231059 233061 238065 247073 257081
      261084 268087 273085 278082 282076
 1.00 495904 495897 495890 492880 482861 478853 473846 470843
      465841 457837 449835 445835 443836 443840 448849 457852
      464856 468864 473874 473877 470875 467872 455862 451860
      450861 449865 445870 445874 446878 449882 453882 457879
      461881 465884 467886 467890 451928 443943 440947 439954
      439962 442968 446968 450966 457961 464956 468954 472949
      476943 481935 487926 491917 494910 495904
 1.00 456908 456906 456903 455902 454903 455906 454908 455910
      456908
 1.00 372956 373949 373940 371934 367932 360927 357932 352932
      349937 349941 351942 353940 356936 358935 361936 362938
      360952 357963 357967 362967 370961 372956
 1.00 272077 271075 269074 267074 268076 268077 270078 272077
 1.00 252063 251061 250058 248057 246056 244055 243054 241054
      240054 239053 238055 239057 240060 241060 242061 243062
      244062 246063 248063 249063 251063 252063
 1.50 491904 491897 490890 489884 486880 483878 481878 480881
      480887 477892 474894 473899 473915 471918 468921 464922
      460925 455932 449939 445947 443951 442959 442962 444964
      452960 466952 469949 471946 474940 474934 476929 478926
      483917 488912 491904
 2.00 485904 486902 486899 485897 485895 483895 482897 482898
      481899 480901 480902 480904 480907 482909 484909 485907
      485905 485904
 2.00 469940 467934 465932 462932 459935 454938 450943 448949
      447954 450956 457954 461952 466949 468947 469942 469940

$$





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