Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 090740
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 09/1200 UTC THRU JUL 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

LOWER MS VALLEY---SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

1.50-1.75"+ PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS---ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC DAY 1.  THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF AR...MS AND AL ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMING OF TOPS.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO
DETAILS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  HOWEVER---GENERALLY FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY TOTALS DAY 1 ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

CENTRAL PLAINS

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST
AND OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FIRING IN A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS---WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
IN THIS AXIS. CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE---BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION---ISOLATED SHORT
TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE.  THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT AXIS WITH MODELS INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS.

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE THIS PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHWEST AND AS FAR NORTHWEST AS NORTHERN CA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST---ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER HIGH. PW ANOMALIES IN THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS.  HOWEVER---NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE RECENT
PATTERN OF ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL NOT CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE.


ORAVEC

DAYS 2/3...

...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

A SLOW MOVING SHEARED UPPER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE A
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 18Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY TO BE COMMON ON DAY 2/THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY
DRY SIDE COMPARED TO ITS OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z NAM/UKMET
INDICATES THAT QPF MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST.  THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MORE WITH
THE ECMWF/GFS IDEA THAT QPF WILL NOT TREND FARTHER NORTH FOR NOW.
THE 00Z ECMWF DOES TAKE THE HEAVIER QPF INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BUT STILL KEEPS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THERE MOSTLY DRY.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FLORIDA...THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAL
AVERAGED AMOUNTS OVER .25 TO .5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF COURSE.

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE
OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF QPF ALTHOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH MODEL TO MODEL QPF AMOUNTS.  BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH SHOW AN EXPANDING
AREA OF QPF ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD DURING FRIDAY AND DIMINISHES IN
INTENSITY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF MEMBERS AND A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION IS DEPICTED ON THE FORECAST GRAPHICS WITH QPF MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF .5 TO 1 INCH SPREAD OVER DAYS 2 TO DAY 3.  THESE AMOUNTS
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
AREA BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST IS DEPICTED SINCE THE AREA
WOULD REQUIRE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN/HOUR TO GENERATE
FLASH FLOODING AND THOSE KINDS OF AMOUNTS ARE NOT SEEN IN THE
FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS MESOSCALE SYSTEMS OVER THE
ROCKIES HEAD EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

...ROCKY MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE ONGOING MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS WITH HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
QPF DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY EXCEPT OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. TOWARD THE END OF DAY
3...A COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE SIGNAL IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
ECMWF.

ORAVEC/KOCIN



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 458702 459697 456695 453694 450695 448694 444695 439699
      432705 430708 426710 421715 414716 409716 402718 388720
      381722 376726 371731 365733 360736 356740 353746 350753
      344766 339780 340786 339792 332802 326814 320821 311829
      309831 309836 308845 309855 307858 305861 300857 299853
      298848 298844 296842 293843 291846 289851 287858 287866
      288874 292885 294885 296889 298893 296900 294908 294913
      295923 298930 299933 303934 308937 311939 313942 319952
      324962 328973 330975 334976 339975 342972 345974 350978
      356978 360983 364987 370992 376997 380001 386011 390014
      393018 398021 402021 404019 404014 399009 398005 399001
      403001 407003 425024 429029 433030 435024 433019 420999
      422997 423994 425987 423977 420971 416965 412961 405956
      400954 388949 380947 373946 363943 357942 354942 352941
      348941 345938 345930 344926 344921 345912 348895 350886
      353881 358868 361861 362854 361838 362832 365825 372815
      375810 378803 384787 388782 394784 396785 396789 394794
      390806 389808 391812 393817 400816 404813 412804 417804
      423799 433788 435772 435768 436765 439760 443747 445740
      448734 454722 458711 457706 458702
 0.01 435208 435205 433204 430201 429196 426192 422190 419190
      415191 412195 407203 408209 409213 408227 410231 415232
      420226 426219 432213 435208
 0.01 417163 415153 410147 406139 402136 399136 395140 393144
      390155 386164 386171 387175 389178 392177 397171 401167
      404166 408165 413165 417163
 0.01 413118 412112 410102 410096 408093 405099 402105 399110
      393114 387115 383119 376122 362116 356112 352107 351101
      352095 354093 357091 366093 370096 374097 380094 392091
      401083 405078 408071 408068 407063 405058 403056 399057
      395061 381056 378051 372047 363046 358047 356049 354054
      353063 349070 342071 336073 331078 327084 324085 320085
      313084 308081 296074 291071 285068 276067 271066 268067
      265071 262077 262086 265093 268097 273102 276109 282113
      294120 303127 314135 327143 332146 337148 344147 348143
      354140 357138 362139 365138 367135 366132 370132 376130
      381128 392121 404119 409118 413118
 0.01 294799 294794 290793 284791 276790 269791 266795 263793
      256793 252793 249795 244800 241807 241815 246821 250826
      257829 262832 270834 278832 287821 289813 288809 285807
      279803 280801 285801 294799
 0.25 416984 410974 406970 402966 396964 391963 383962 379960
      373958 369961 368970 370976 378985 383988 387990 401993
      412997 416984
 0.25 385747 385742 384737 380737 376738 367747 359758 356765
      355771 352777 349783 343795 341798 343801 348796 356786
      366778 373775 376769 382757 385747
 0.25 352126 351122 349119 344114 342111 339111 335117 332116
      329114 325109 322102 318096 312092 306089 300092 298094
      296098 298108 302113 307118 314122 319125 326126 331125
      335128 336130 340133 347129 352126
 0.25 349820 347819 345821 342827 337836 332846 329850 325853
      318862 313871 309884 306892 303899 302907 304914 308917
      315925 323931 326932 330931 333926 334913 336897 338886
      343873 346862 347849 348842 348837 345833 346827 349820
 0.25 281813 280809 276807 272805 269803 263803 259803 256804
      254808 256811 259813 262816 266817 272818 277816 281814
      281813
 0.50 407986 408981 406977 401972 395968 387966 380968 373967
      371969 371974 377978 383981 389985 396987 403989 407986
 0.50 379748 379743 377742 372746 369750 364755 361760 358765
      358772 362774 367771 370766 373761 376755 378750 379748
 0.50 338865 335860 330861 320868 314879 310890 309897 309905
      312911 314915 323924 324925 327923 328917 329908 330902
      329893 331886 335874 338865
 0.50 265815 265813 264811 262809 262808 260807 258806 256806
      255808 256809 256810 258811 258812 260813 262814 263815
      264815 265815
 1.00 392977 391976 389976 389977 391977 392977

24HR QP VT 11/12Z



24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 528894 517816 502761 494764 464812 446836 430827 414832
      383865 374887 361887 357862 370820 388802 395758 396723
      380706 349719 328753 281793 263793 248797 245812 253828
      270845 279886 285923 295941 335950 366935 383937 391965
      381005 349043 309069 291068 279058 272035 265023 257023
      251024 248026 247033 247043 247062 250070 279114 314133
      336120 348124 352101 371090 390094 386111 372122 371126
      369124
 0.01 369124 371125 374131 383131 392126 396125 400128 415139
      422142 434155 458138 465118 480087 484047 477006 491969
      507949 519942 530933 528892
 0.01 449214 451205 448197 447193 437184 432176 422167 418171
      425179 425187 427191 425192 420187 416188 415190 416201
      419206 420207 420210 420216 422219 425220 432221 445216
      449214
 0.01 275025 291028 299014 296002 281995 272999 269008 269012
      270019 275025
 0.25 519921 515912 510913 507916 502921 496928 490934 484942
      484946 487947 495944 501939 507933 514928 517925 519921
 0.25 515895 515890 513888 508885 504885 498888 493891 490894
      488898 488901 492905 498904 503903 509900 513897 515895
 0.25 505823 500816 496813 491811 488814 485819 480829 476840
      472852 472857 477854 483846 490838 497832 502829 505824
      505823
 0.25 466028 465021 466016 464008 461005 449005 446016 445028
      440039 438057 440069 446073 446080 440087 436094 440100
      449094 454077 461047 462042 464038 466028
 0.25 445916 445907 443901 437892 430884 426880 420879 411877
      403877 399880 394882 388881 385883 383885 385895 383907
      386914 389918 392924 394929 398942 403952 404959 405968
      405974 407980 408983 411983 414977 416964 419956 419952
      421950 426949 431948 434944 437937 438930 440925 443920
      445916
 0.25 412068 413062 412059 409055 409051 413049 413046 411043
      407040 401036 395030 388029 382033 377040 374043 371044
      363046 356050 354055 356059 360059 365061 371064 377071
      381077 388082 393083 395082 402078 407072 412068
 0.25 370745 368737 361737 346750 316799 304814 286811 272815
      282823 305832 310841 317843 328831 330811 345794 349789
      368761 370754 370745
 0.25 342089 341085 337083 334080 332076 329074 326076 325079
      326083 330086 333089 337092 340095 342090 342089
 0.25 315116 324107 326100 319092 305086 297083 290080 282076
      270066 266065 263066 261069 261074 263078 265080 268083
      269087 276092 281097 286103 293108 307116 312117 315116
 0.25 302893 303890 302888 302886 302885 300886 300887 300889
      299891 299893 300893 302893 302893
 0.50 461028 462023 462018 461013 460011 458010 456010 454013
      453017 453022 454026 455030 457031 459030 461028
 0.50 419933 429931 429923 415914 401891 392895 396915 406937
      412936 419933
 0.50 404070 403067 400066 396065 393065 389065 387068 389070
      390074 392076 395077 398076 400074 403072 404070
 0.50 396044 390042 391039 396044
 0.50 360765 361763 361760 360758 360756 358755 357755 355756
      353756 352757 352759 351760 351762 351764 351766 353768
      355770 356770 357770 358769 359767 360766 360765
 0.50 312107 314101 311096 307094 304091 300090 297091 292092
      293096 296100 298103 302106 306108 309110 312107

$$





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