Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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859
FXUS04 KWBC 030901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 03/1200 UTC THRU DEC 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN REMAINS ON TARGET DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TX
(INCLUDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST) INTO WEST-NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHWEST MS. A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST
MX...WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA
OF CORTEZ PER THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY. HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY LOW...BUT WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING TO SUCH A LOW
LATITUDE...THE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DIP TO A RARELY SEEN MINUS
5.0. UNUSUALLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING UP FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL FEED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER... WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATION PW VALUES...WITH THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF 1.75-2.00"
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST RANKING NEAR THE RECORD DECEMBER VALUES. AS
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER...MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
DESPITE THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS INCREASING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS TO SOME OF THE DETAILS. WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A NEAR
EVEN BLEND OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GFS / NSSL-WRF / AND OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED QPF. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX IN
THE LOWER-MID LAYERS...AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES CLIMB
BETWEEN +3 AND +4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION.

AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...SUCH A HIGHLY-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP COUPLED WITH A DYNAMIC COOL-SEASON SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO POTENTIALLY DISRUPT WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE
OPTIMAL DEEP-LAYER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH THE
HIGHER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG) AVAILABLE
JUST OFFSHORE. EXCEPT FOR THE NAM (WELL NORTH WITH THE MAX
RAINFALL AXIS)...THE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE ARE A BIT
BETTER CLUSTERED IN DEPICTING A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE NEW DAY 1 PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTHENING S-N THETA-E AND MOISTURE
SURGE INDICATIVE OF LESS CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE FARTHER NORTH
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...STILL LIKE THE IDEA PER THE LATEST CAMS OF
CONFINING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF >5 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG GULF COAST...I.E. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND WHERE THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE (NEAR THE AXIS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWS). A BEVY OF HIGH-RES CAMS
INDICATE 24 HOUR TOTALS OF 5-8+ INCHES OVER THIS
REGION...INCLUDING THE NSSL-WRF...WRF-ARW...AND WRF-NNMB. CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS WPC QPF WERE MINOR WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE
OF FORECAST RAINFALL...WITH A SWATH OF 3-4+ INCH AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS STILL ON TARGET ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX
COAST...NORTH TO AROUND LONGVIEW IN EASTERN TX...THEN EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST LA. THE EXPANSE OF THE 1+ INCH QPF IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND AS FAR
EAST AS NORTHWEST AL.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY/ZONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BRING A MODEST
DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
PACIFIC NW EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT
OF A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL BE
MINOR...AS PWS INCREASING TO ~0.75 INCH ALONG THE OR COAST WOULD
EQUATE TO +0.5-1 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
DECEMBER. NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPANSIVE W-E ORIENTED WCB ALONG WITH
A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW (OPTIMAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION WITH THE
FLOW MORE OR LESS ORTHOGONAL TO THE TERRAIN) WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD 24 HOUR LIQUID-EQUIVALENT TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5-1.0+ INCH
ACROSS THE WA-NORTHERN OR COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES...ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST MT. HIGHER
TOTALS (UP TO 1.5-2.0+") ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES PER THE 00Z HIGH-RES QPFS WHICH WERE WELL
CLUSTERED.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION APPEARING LIKELY. SHOULD HAVE
CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD (12Z
SUNDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO LA AND MS/AL. THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTING EAST AS
WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IN ANOTHER UPTICK OF
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND LA
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY STREAMING NORTH OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THUS SHOULD HAVE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT AXIS OF
MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION AND THUS HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. THIS IS
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS EAST TX AND WEST LA INFLUENCES THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THE HIGH RES ARW IS MORE AGGRESSIVE PROPAGATING
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH PUSHES THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE 3KM NAM AND NMMB FOCUS AN AXIS
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LA. OVERALL A VERY MESSY SETUP...AND
WPC FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO A NON NAM GLOBAL AND HIGH RES
CONSENSUS FOR OUR DAY 2 QPF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS PROBABLY BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 0Z UKMET.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE EMBEDDED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.

AS THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST TOWARDS
TEXAS WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION BY LATER SUNDAY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
EVOLUTION...WITH WPC AGAIN FAVORING A NON NAM CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DAY 2 (12Z SUN-12Z MON)
MODERATE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA.
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE AREAL AVERAGED AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN THAT 24 HOUR
PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE FALLING ON TOP OF WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE NEARLY SATURATED SOILS FROM SATURDAYS EXPECTED RAINFALL. THUS
THE UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS FORECAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OPTED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH BOTH PWAT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COLOCATED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WOULD
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGH RATES.

ON DAY 3 (12Z MON-12Z TUE) THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD HAVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVE FROM THE
TEXAS COAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH  CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD 1"+ AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE
FROM PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY END UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC. IT
IS HERE WHERE A STALLED OUT FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION EARLY MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH FROM THE OH
VALLEY LOW. THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THUS
OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC ON DAY
3. THE OTHER AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION MAY END UP NEAR
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACK WHERE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTH INTO THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FROM NORTHERN LA INTO NORTHERN MS. EVEN THOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
ROUND WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY
IN THE 1-2" RANGE...THIS WILL BE FALLING IN AN AREA THAT WILL HAVE
SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THUS THIS
SLIGHT RISK WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH RATES OVER SATURATING SOILS. BOTH OF THESE SLIGHT
RISK WERE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME INTERESTING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY DAY MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF BEING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE 12Z
ECMWF MEAN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THIS DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS...AND RESEMBLES SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM. GIVEN THE
GOOD AND CONSISTENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN OUR TOP THREE PERFORMING
SHORT RANGE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/UKMET) IT WOULD APPEAR THE NAM AND
ECMWF MEAN REPRESENT LESS LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THUS THE WPC DAY 3 QPF
MOSTLY CLOSELY REPRESENTS A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF THINGS WERE TO NUDGE A BIT
QUICKER...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.

...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

UPDATE COMING SOON

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

UPDATE COMING SOON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 483338 486337 490332 494324 499312 501307 503304 509296
      512287 520269 522254 521249 522242 524226 527222 530220
      535212 537208 539203 540197 541192 539183 531165 529161
      526158 518152 503145 492135 484128 481126 476125 467121
      465119 467116 469113 471110 471105 467102 465103 460102
      458103 456101 454098 450095 444095 436096 432098 430103
      423106 424111 422115 420116 425119 425122 428122 434117
      448124 451123 455120 456119 455114 458112 460114 461120
      461126 454131 452133 450138 436148 435153 437158 441166
      444175 445181 443186 449188 455186 462181 463175 466171
      484177 487180 488186 489190 488193 485196 482198 475201
      468205 465207 460207 454211 446213 439216 433218 425220
      423223 425225 427230 425238 425242 426244 428247 432257
      433267 432279 432285 433290 439305 441313 445322
 0.01 565024 564014 561009 555998 542981 538976 534973 531971
      529970 524966 507957 504956 501954 495954 489954 484957
      481962 479966 479974 480977 480981 483988 478992 474996
      471000 470007 471011 483012 487013 490015 490018 489020
      483024 477024 467028 464030 465035 469040 472046 479054
      484059 486064 487078 492079 493087 495102 497108 501111
      510108 513103 515097 514081 513072 511065 509060 506057
      504054 503048 503041 502033 502027 505027 510025 516026
      527026 530026 532024 535021 537016 540019 543023 551032
      552034 555034 558034 563029 565024
 0.01 491884 492875 491868 484864 481864 479862 474862 471863
      469860 467853 462854 458842 455843 451842 449841 446843
      442848 437847 435845 434847 438859 440864 443865 447864
      452865 455864 460861 466873 468878 466883 466890 468893
      468897 470902 472902 474900 473896 475888 477895 478895
      482890 486887 491884
 0.01 483872 482870 481869 479870 478872 479874 481874 483873
      483872
 0.01 464708 462698 456700 454704 449707 445707 442708 439712
      437719 434724 429727 427731 430733 435733 438738 435743
      429745 424743 420743 419746 418752 420757 418761 417766
      419769 421770 419773 417771 414772 415775 412776 408779
      401787 396789 393791 383796 381802 383805 398794 405793
      409796 412802 413809 412814 415817 418821 420818 423811
      424809 426810 430813 433818 436823 439825 446829 450831
      453826 452820 448817 443807 440805 435804 431801 427798
      425794 426791 429786 434778 434771 435766 438760 441757
      448754 450750 458730 460724 462718 464708
 0.01 477929 472917 460917 450910 446906 442903 434897 426892
      422888 416888 410889 406891 399892 391892 385895 382895
      379887 378884 379880 379865 380860 380853 379836 377831
      376823 371810 369804 365798 362794 359796 352806 344813
      337822 332824 330830 321847 318853 315858 312864 308867
      302869 295872 291874 288877 284880 281883 277888 274888
      271886 267882 263883 262895 263901 266907 273915 277919
      274925 269936 266949 262959 261964 257967 251974 252985
      242989 238993 238997 241008 241016 243020 251025 254028
      258032 260035 263041 263050 261057 261063 263068 266074
      267076 270079 278085 281088 283092 285097 289101 297106
      301110 307111 312109 315107 317104 321101 327100 330099
      334099 338097 342094 344089 346083 347077 352066 358056
      360051 362043 363036 366028 371018 374012 377007 381002
      382000 386000 390002 393000 400992 414977 422966 427956
      431955 435955 441955 448955 453958 463962 468962 472958
      476952 472942 477929
 0.01 454061 453056 449054 448048 446043 445038 441038 441041
      444046 446051 446057 447063 450066 454061 454061
 0.01 449080 450078 449077 449075 448074 447073 446071 445071
      443070 441069 441072 443074 444076 446077 448078 449080
      449080
 0.01 430185 429182 427184 426187 426189 428187 430185 430185
 0.01 429168 429166 429168 429168
 0.01 425700 425698 424696 423694 422693 421692 420691 418690
      416690 415690 413691 413692 413694 413696 414697 415698
      416699 417700 418702 418703 420703 422703 423702 425701
      425700
 0.01 431862 429859 429857 429855 429854 427854 425855 424855
      424858 424860 424862 426862 428864 429864 431862 431862
 0.01 422140 422138 420137 420138 418139 418140 418142 420140
      421140 422140
 0.01 285804 283802 279800 277799 274799 270796 268797 266800
      268804 272806 276807 280808 284806 285804
 0.01 256789 256784 253783 250788 246794 244801 242809 242812
      240817 241821 245819 247817 251810 254804 256797 255792
      256789
 0.25 530205 531200 531194 530188 526177 524171 519166 513165
      508164 503163 498161 491155 485151 479149 478147 480145
      482146 486146 490144 489137 485133 479131 474132 471138
      470140 467141 463142 459145 457150 458153 461158 464161
      471164 478165 483168 487171 496179 502186 507192 511195
      516198 520202 522205 526207 530205
 0.25 516267 517261 516257 514250 511242 509238 506235 505231
      503223 502216 499210 496204 492201 481203 461214 450220
      449222 452225 454228 453233 451234 448237 450252 450260
      451268 455270 457269 461263 464257 469253 473249 478251
      491255 497245 501248 504255 498266 503270 508270 513269
      516267
 0.25 409947 408942 405940 402943 398943 393945 389947 386949
      383952 382954 379953 375952 373949 370940 366932 362883
      360874 358861 355843 354837 352832 349831 347832 344834
      340843 338847 335850 331854 327862 323868 319875 310890
      307889 305886 301886 298889 293894 291897 291902 299908
      290922 284928 278935 274942 271950 269958 268968 266979
      263986 258994 253000 252003 252008 255015 265025 273030
      279036 282043 282049 280053 279058 277059 279066 281074
      287079 296083 299086 304086 311081 315079 318076 328064
      333059 334056 336051 336047 339042 343035 347026 352018
      358002 361994 364992 370984 373981 375983 375988 377990
      380989 385983 394968 403957 409947
 0.50 496226 498221 497218 494212 491209 486206 478208 469212
      461217 457219 455221 462231 461239 465239 467237 466235
      465229 472224 477222 482224 489224 494226 496226
 0.50 483242 484240 484239 483237 482236 481234 479232 478233
      477233 476234 475234 474237 474239 475241 476243 478244
      479245 481244 483242 483242
 0.50 483161 482159 480158 479160 480160 481161 483161
 0.50 485138 484136 482135 481135 479135 478137 479138 480139
      482139 484139 485138
 0.50 472158 472156 470154 469153 467153 466154 466157 467157
      468158 470159 472158 472158
 0.50 357925 358915 357906 355890 354881 353874 350869 349864
      347854 345849 343849 342852 338857 333866 328870 325874
      315898 309907 303916 286931 283935 279939 274949 271963
      271980 268994 269002 271006 282028 287039 291049 294061
      291066 292073 296076 303076 311072 321065 323063 323060
      321058 318058 315057 316050 326045 332034 334028 334021
      333005 333991 335975 343967 347962 349957 353945 357925
 0.50 315018 315016 315013 314013 313013 311013 310013 309013
      307014 305015 304017 304019 305021 305023 306026 307027
      307026 308025 310024 311024 312022 312021 313020 314018
      315018
 1.00 487218 488216 487214 486213 486212 484211 482210 481210
      479210 477210 476211 475212 474214 473216 475217 476218
      478218 480219 481219 482219 483219 485218 487218 487218
 1.00 472218 473216 472216 471216 470216 468215 467217 466219
      467221 469221 470220 471219 472218
 1.00 348921 349910 348899 347889 344884 339879 335878 332881
      326894 310916 306921 301926 292933 286937 281943 278949
      276955 274962 273967 274970 277977 283980 298002 307000
      311995 317983 321976 325970 334960 337954 341947 345934
      347926 348921
 1.50 482216 482215 482214 481212 479212 478213 478215 478216
      480216 482216 482216
 1.50 341917 341908 339901 337895 334894 331895 317912 310922
      303930 285942 281947 278953 275964 277970 280972 284972
      296970 298971 299973 299982 300987 298989 298992 300992
      303986 307982 315975 322966 328956 334945 338934 340924
      341917
 2.00 336926 336918 335912 330911 325911 322912 318915 313922
      307930 301935 292939 285944 281948 279953 278958 278964
      282967 288967 296962 299960 305959 305964 304968 303974
      306975 314971 319964 324956 329947 332939 336926
 3.00 327939 326931 323926 318926 314929 305937 301940 296942
      290945 287949 284954 285958 287958 292956 297954 303952
      308951 311952 311956 311960 312964 319956 323950 325945
      327939
 4.00 308945 307943 307941 306941 305942 304943 304945 305946
      307946 308945

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 528191 527170 524150 521140 516129 512120 505113 501109
      501101 502084 502070 504064 505057 509023 510014 509009
      508001 507993 509991 511992 513994 518989 530979 536973
      536968 534962 531951 529946 529937 529920 528912 526908
      520900 513890 509883 506877 508871 511867 514862 517857
      518855 518850 517839 516834 514830 506815 499806 494798
      489790 484782 472765 465757 462753 459748 456745 453740
      447734 443730 442727 438724 435722 431719 429718 423713
      410709 401704 397705 393707 387710 384712 380713 376716
      372719 367721 360726 355728 350731 345734 342738 336747
      331754 320771 317777 314785 309801 306811 303819 301823
      298827 291833 283840 277848 272856 269867 263886 260894
      260907 257923 250939 246945 243954 244959 244966 246977
      247983 245989 237993 248007 251015 251029 249034 249039
      249045 250050 251054 250057 253061 256065 259067 265072
      282082 292084 297084 300083 303080 306076 311067 316059
      321052 324048 325041 326036 326032 324027 325018 327012
      327008 331991 331985 333981 338976 341971 343967 343960
      338959 334956 334954 337952 340950 345950 366945 374946
      379949 383950 389949 394947 403943 407941 412940 421936
      435940 443943 450947 459965 462969 465972 470972 473974
      484979 488981 491986 490992 488995 485994 484010 484026
      484033 482039 477047 471056 468060 467063 464066 463063
      463055 465050 466038 466030 464028 454032 451033 448036
      443043 441048 440057 439073 436085 436088 433088 430085
      426082 424077 423074 423070 425064 426059 425055 421057
      419059 416059 406058 402058 402062
 0.01 402062 407070 411075 414081 413090 411096 409100 406101
      402104 396111 397119 399123 400127 402128 407131 411128
      415129 416132 415139 412143 404151 402155 403162 406168
      411173 414177 414182 413191 410198 409201 408205 409209
      409213 411219 410223 408227 400229 395231 395236 398241
      402245 406252 409256 415263 418263 419266 421270 434293
      436296 439298 440300 445301 448302 450304 459313 466316
      467318 470320 481324 485323 489320 493316 496312 503299
      508288 511282 513273 515266 516257 516248 512242 507234
      499225 516214 519210 523204 526197 528191
 0.01 487195 487190 485184 482181 478178 473178 471181 468187
      466192 465196 465199 467201 472201 475201 480202 484199
      486197 487195
 0.25 501275 502270 501267 497263 486258 487251 486246 484243
      481240 478238 474239 470237 465234 464232 464228 469223
      474222 476219 478217 477213 475211 471211 460213 450207
      450202 452200 456195 464182 468173 472168 475166 481165
      485162 485157 483154 481151 476150 473148 471145 469142
      472141 478142 485150 489150 492149 494141 494135 493131
      488126 483120 477117 474113 472113 471117 471123 468125
      464130 462132 458131 456129 453129 447132 445134 443140
      435139 432148 432156 439168 444174 443183 443189 444197
      444202 442205 437210 434212 430212 425217 421223 419230
      414232 410236 410239 413242 418247 433251 438253 446256
      451257 456259 462261 468260 477261 482262 488277 491279
      494280 501275
 0.25 518926 518923 517921 517918 515916 514916 513914 512913
      510913 509916 510918 510919 511921 512922 513923 513925
      514926 515927 517928 518926
 0.25 507911 507908 505908 504906 503905 502903 503906 505908
      507911 507912 507911
 0.25 490864 486856 483852 480850 472848 471841 471836 469826
      468817 466813 462810 455805 450801 447800 443802 441803
      436801 434803 436808 440815 438817 438821 440825 444829
      447831 455835 458842 453849 451853 447856 441857 437859
      434860 429861 422865 419868 419870 414872 411875 406882
      403885 402890 402897 403901 404905 403910 406912 408911
      415909 421909 426908 433903 440897 439890 442892 446892
      449884 453872 455869 458866 465861 469859 472860 479867
      486869 490864
 0.25 458118 460101 457096 450093 438094 434095 429091 427091
      427094 429097 429101 425104 423105 422110 415117 429120
      434118 437118 440120 445122 451122 455122 458118
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448074 447075 447077 448079 449080
      449081 451080
 0.25 441791 440790 439789 438789 438790 439791 440793 441791
 0.25 381761 377756 371752 364750 360748 355748 349751 346755
      347758 345763 339769 333774 329780 326786 322794 319803
      312822 311826 307830 301835 290844 284850 279856 278860
      278866 280876 282881 283887 283902 282910 279918 276925
      271932 265940 261948 258957 256968 254975 255980 256984
      259992 257001 258013 259020 262023 271037 276051 277055
      281059 287063 290064 294063 298061 304056 311049 315043
      317040 319036 319027 321006 321998 322992 324987 325983
      314981 314978 315973 321959 328942 332933 336924 341917
      346909 354897 358889 360879 362868 366862 372853 374849
      375842 372834 370830 370825 369818 367813 363806 359795
      360788 363776 364771 369769 378767 381764 381761
 0.50 489139 490137 489134 488132 485131 483129 481130 479129
      477129 474129 472131 472136 472138 475139 477139 479140
      481140 484139 487140 489139
 0.50 472158 471152 468146 462144 458144 456147 452150 447148
      441145 437145 435148 434152 437159 441163 447166 449175
      457185 460183 462181 463176 458174 456172 455167 460163
      464161 470160 472158
 0.50 459222 460220 457217 453215 442215 438215 433217 425221
      424223 425226 429231 429235 425237 419237 419240 420242
      424245 430246 434246 438242 447241 451238 452234 454228
      457224 459222
 0.50 452100 446099 439097 436100 432099 431103 429106 426108
      432111 436115 443117 447114 449111 449107 449102 452100
 0.50 356846 356828 352810 351799 349789 342786 339784 335786
      331798 325811 319825 316831 310836 303837 299840 288849
      284855 282860 281866 283871 287872 289874 292880 293888
      294896 292904 288910 284918 282924 277929 274933 271939
      264951 261958 259965 260973 263980 266984 268990 268999
      267010 265017 270021 274025 278032 279038 279042 279046
      284051 287053 291053 298050 303046 309042 312039 313035
      316020 318014 316008 317991 312991 308989 307985 307979
      312967 318955 325940 327933 331926 341900 344893 347887
      350880 354871 355859 356846
 0.50 309848 309846 309845 308846 307848 307849 309848 309848
 1.00 450222 450219 447218 445218 442218 438217 436219 434220
      431221 429221 430223 434224 435226 439226 441226 444226
      446225 449224 450222
 1.00 443108 442107 440107 440108 442110 443108
 1.00 346836 346830 345826 343822 342814 340808 338803 334805
      333813 328830 324840 317847 315856 313860 310863 306867
      305869 305872 306888 307893 310896 311900 311905 306915
      301923 272945 269952 266962 265969 268974 271978 275979
      292987 296984 299980 303971 312954 316946 321934 324927
      327917 328904 330891 334884 337875 341863 342851 345842
      346836
 1.00 310007 311003 309999 302999 299999 295998 292999 290002
      287006 289011 292016 295021 298025 301026 302023 304017
      307013 310007
 1.00 302846 301843 299844 297847 295849 293851 291853 290856
      288858 289862 291862 293860 295859 298857 300855 300853
      301848 302846
 1.50 337841 337833 335832 333833 328844 324855 319866 312876
      309881 308888 318893 323894 327889 330876 332871 333864
      335858 337852 337841
 1.50 323919 323915 322911 319908 315911 307924 303929 296934
      283942 277946 273954 270962 270966 272968 274970 279971
      283969 288970 294974 298973 300968 304962 307954 311947
      315939 322924 323919
 2.00 331854 329854 326859 324864 321869 318875 315879 320879
      322885 325881 327874 328868 328862 330857 331854
 2.00 319922 319915 314918 310924 306930 296937 292941 287944
      277952 274958 274961 276964 281965 288963 296964 299962
      301958 307947 314936 319922 319922
 2.00 314883 316881 314880 312881 312882 311884 313885 314884
      314883
 3.00 312932 313930 312929 311930 310932 309933 310934 312933
      312932

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 542982 543969 543963 542958 541947 539936 535914 530888
      527878 526874 524870 522866 519864 514861 508865 505870
      502873 501878 498883 495885 493883 490880 489876 486874
      485875 478877 473878 470882 470887 470895 470899 468903
      468914 469920 470925 467929 464932 462936 462944 463955
      465966 466975 464985 461992 456000 451016 448024 445030
      440039 438044 435044 432042 426043 420048 418049 417053
      412054 408052 406051 407048 408045 408040 405041 403044
      401050 397052 395055 390062 386070 385072 387075 390076
      392080 395087 396092 395098 394110 390114 391117 394121
      394128 394134 395138 394151 396163 399182 401190 402194
      402197 400199 387201 389207 395212 401216 407221 400228
      397229 393232 392241 393251 394259 395263 398265 414274
      418281 423289 428296 433303 438309 444314 451317 459320
      469324 473324 478325 484323 490320 494315 497312 498308
      500301 501294 501284 501278 504276 503273 504266 508264
      510257 510254 510246 506230 503222 499216 494209 487201
      488193 484184 481178 476171 472165 467159 462153 459148
      456145 447143 437141 434146 430147 426144 425141 423141
      421145 418148 413148 410145 407142 405136 406130 409127
      413120 419112 423108 426112 429120 432121 434119 446112
      453108 455107 457106 459108 461126 464134 467137 470139
      475140 478144 484151 490156 492158 497159 503155 506153
      507148 503142 500134 495128 491120 482102 478097 474091
      470083 470078 469074 468069 471066 476062 484058 490051
      499038 504032 506029 509027 519028 524021 532008 538994
      542982
 0.01 503811 502800 501794 500791 496786 493783 492779 473753
      468747 463741 459735 455728 457720 456707 450701 447692
      444683 439677 436670 432665 430661 425662 415665 399670
      395672 391674 382676 365680 359682 356685 351691 343704
      336714 329715 326720 323728 319737 312749 279798 271809
      266814 259813 242819 237826 236832 236837 235841 230848
      229855 229863 231870 235878 239884 243891 241925 248962
      254966 260968 263970 269970 278970 285970 288977 290985
      293993 295001 296009 292024 290029 292031 294033 299032
      314029 319025 324020 329014 331008 337987 338984 340980
      345976 350972 354965 358960 364957 378949 382943 386936
      389928 391925 394924 398917 400909 403898 403892 405888
      407868 410851 408829 407816 405807 404801 402796 404790
      407789 409791 414805 416809 420809 422802 425793 428788
      427784 420786 414790 408788 401787 399781 397778 396773
      395771 392762 387753 385749 384745 388739 394734 399738
      404741 411746 431771 433779 434784 436785 439782 441785
      443789 442795 442799 441803 438806 435811 435814 437816
      439820 444820 448819 451816 455812 459811 462812 471813
      486816 498822 502821 501818 503811
 0.01 482852 481847 479842 476837 473835 471833 467831 464832
      464839 466844 468848 470851 473853 477855 480854 482852
 0.01 455852 455850 454847 454845 453845 451845 449845 449848
      449850 449853 450855 451857 453857 453855 455852 455852
 0.01 436093 433085 430077 427070 423068 421072 417078 411080
      409079 406082 407086 410088 414089 415094 417102 420104
      425105 429105 432102 432097 434095 436093
 0.01 433035 433033 433030 431028 430028 428025 426027 424030
      424032 426034 428035 429035 431035 433035 433035
 0.25 497252 497243 495239 493235 488231 483224 477223 474232
      475235 479237 481236 484239 486242 486246 485249 486251
      491255 493256 496255 497252
 0.25 519973 520959 519952 517948 512942 505939 491943 485948
      481954 477965 476976 474986 472999 472007 472014 475018
      491016 498013 503008 506005 509003 515996 516992 517987
      517980 518974 519973
 0.25 479251 479246 475243 468237 466233 464231 466227 468222
      469215 462213 453210 445209 441211 437212 430216 424222
      419230 413233 409235 409239 411244 414247 422252 430257
      440260 450262 458261 465259 473256 475253 479251
 0.25 393872 392863 389855 383837 379828 377824 376818 375807
      373799 371791 367784 364774 362763 362753 364746 368738
      371729 372721 370715 366714 363715 357719 354717 351714
      347712 343715 338720 334725 327738 319752 304778 297790
      294799 293802 293809 292812 289814 283817 275820 267824
      256831 251836 246844 246855 246861 248865 251871 257874
      262878 264880 265883 267893 267902 265910 263915 263921
      268937 271943 275948 280954 288957 304959 308960 311963
      316970 320975 325978 330978 333976 337973 339970 347957
      351951 357945 367937 378925 382920 386912 391895 393882
      393872
 0.50 507965 508958 505955 501955 495960 491966 487972 484982
      482992 484995 486995 492995 498990 502984 505975 507965
      507965
 0.50 479233 478230 476230 476232 478234 479233
 0.50 460245 462242 461240 456238 453239 448237 444235 443231
      451228 453225 454223 452220 445218 437221 434223 431227
      431238 431241 433243 438245 448247 457247 460245
 0.50 387888 386881 384873 381865 377857 363832 362822 363815
      363809 363804 361793 355777 353767 353757 358746 361739
      362735 361729 352724 347725 343724 339728 323750 317762
      311775 306788 305796 306807 305817 301823 296824 289823
      281824 274826 263835 258840 256846 258852 262857 271863
      275870 278877 282885 284892 285896 284900 280905 278911
      279918 277924 275928 275933 276940 278945 281947 293952
      300953 308953 316952 323949 333942 341943 345943 348941
      358935 362928 366923 373918 377913 381907 383901 386894
      387888
 1.00 376893 377886 377881 375878 371875 365876 361878 356879
      351876 346873 338868 331869 328872 325884 322890 322896
      319908 318916 316922 311931 305940 303944 304945 307946
      313944 317941 325935 328931 331926 334922 338918 343916
      348919 352921 356919 362910 370903 373900 376894 376893
 1.00 351740 350736 348736 341742 335749 329753 324760 320768
      318777 316785 316791 317796 317802 316807 309824 305830
      300831 296830 286829 278831 275837 272841 271845 279848
      282850 285854 290872 294880 298882 302880 306873 308869
      311867 330862 334861 336858 341851 347833 349826 351814
      352810 351803 349793 344771 343765 344759 347752 350745
      351740
 1.00 299920 300918 299916 299914 298912 297911 296912 295912
      294914 293915 293916 293918 293920 294921 295921 297921
      299920 299920
 1.50 369891 369890 367889 365889 363891 363892 363894 362896
      362897 362898 364899 365898 366898 367896 368894 369893
      369891
 1.50 346805 344789 340786 338781 337775 335771 332770 328768
      325771 322774 323783 329792 327797 324802 321806 318810
      315822 311833 291839 293844 296849 297856 299861 310859
      313860 317858 320855 329848 335839 340829 343818 346805
 2.00 338815 337810 333810 328814 321817 318825 316832 316837
      317843 319845 323844 328840 331833 334826 337819 338815

$$





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