Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 040653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 04/1200 UTC THRU MAR 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD..BOTH IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THRU
THE OH VALLEY..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST SNOWS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  A LEAD H5 S/WV NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS PRECEDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN..WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS THRU MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS..AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST SNOWS UP
THRU THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  THE
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY..WITH ONLY SLOWLY
FALLING HEIGHTS AND A SLOW SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE STRONGER AND
MORE MOIST SOUTWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THE LONG DURATION OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM MAINLY THRU THE OH VALLEY..ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME LOWER
FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE.  ON WEDNESDAY..THIS CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN A
SLOWLY HEIGHT FALLING REGIME SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE TRANSITION FROM
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT..AGAIN PRETTY
MUCH NEAR THE LENGTH OF THE OH RIVER.  WPC CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
NORTH-SOUTH QPF DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING..WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME 2-3 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS THIS PERIOD ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS
ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN..SOUTHERN STREAM H5 ENERGY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES..AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
QPFS GENERALLY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM..WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 479617 490625 493635 497646 498652 497659 495668 493679
      492685 489690 483699 481703 478707 474711 473714 470715
      464715 461716 459718 457722 453726 445732 443731 443724
      445717 447709 453704 460699 466694 471686 470678 466676
      462676 458672 452666 448663 443661 442674 437698 435703
      433709 431720 430726 431732 430737 431741 434742 436744
      436748 435752 435756 434761 430762 428772 423798 421806
      417815 409838 406843 404849 402861 397885 394895 392904
      389913 388922 388935 386940 386945 382970 378993 378997
      379001 381006 381010 383013 383021 389031 396036 400047
      402051 406054 400058 398062 394065 390064 387062 385060
      381060 379069 380074 379079 375077 371073 363068 357067
      353065 349066 346068 342072 340076 338083 339089 344100
      349108 346112 342113 339112 336109 331110 325109 321110
      317114 308126 305125 302123 297117 293111 289108 286104
      274091 267086 258083 248085 242085 238083 239075 241071
      244070 245067 246062 250058 255057 261058 266061 278068
      289080 294079 298077 308079 320064 317058 314054 310053
      306054 302057 298055 297048 295044 285027 279020 274015
      267003 260999 256998 253994 247990 248983 249979 262968
      269963 274957 279947 284939 293920 297899 301893 301882
      304874 304871 302871 300874 293891 287898 282898 280895
      282890 286886 288874 293864 298857 305850 307850 306856
      304864 304870 307871 310869 312868 315864 318859 322850
      327846 342835 348815 351805 354791 355779 351782 349787
      344795 340803 334810 328816 327806 328802 330798
 0.01 330798 340784 344779 349771 352766 354762 353757 347752
      345750 346745 349727 352720 357713 363697 366690 370682
      377668 381662 387655 400643
 0.01 517276 519269 520261 519256 513254 508260 505262 502267
      498276 497289 499300 501310 505309 507304 511295 513288
      515283 517276
 0.01 484867 484856 480847 474827 471825 467826 464828 462832
      461837 457840 452840 449843 447844 444848 442851 443858
      448858 451854 455855 461859 462871 466881 465893 465898
      467901 470900 473895 476890 477883 478877 484867
 0.01 439813 438808 436808 434806 431807 429809 429812 428814
      428819 430821 432821 434819 435818 437816 439813
 0.01 361083 361080 361078 360076 360074 358071 356071 355071
      354071 354073 354075 354077 354080 356080 357082 357083
      359085 361083 361083
 0.25 422668 422661 421656 414652 410650 407651 399657 390663
      384673 375691 372697 369707 366716 365720 364724 366728
      370727 375725 377728 377732 376740 375752 373763 370781
      363800 362814 361819 359824 352831 346841 309907 306914
      304924 302936 299947 296959 293971 295981 295993 291998
      291003 290010 296016 300019 302023 304029 303036 304038
      307040 311040 313039 317037 323036 328034 330031 334025
      338016 349000 353991 357980 362971 366960 373943 375933
      378920 383895 389872 400834 405811 407798 408791 408784
      409773 409762 411750 411737 416711 418701 420688 422668
 0.25 374053 375051 374049 372048 371048 370048 369048 367048
      365048 363048 361049 360051 359051 359054 361056 363056
      365056 366056 368055 370055 371055 372055 374053 374053
 0.25 268072 267070 264068 262067 260065 257064 253064 251065
      250069 251071 253073 256074 259075 263075 266074 268072
 0.50 418664 418659 416657 412657 408659 393669 387674 384681
      381686 380690 377700 376708 376711 378714 383719 384724
      383729 380751 378771 374787 370804 368815 365822 359831
      355837 352844 350851 347859 342866 326898 323903 318908
      313913 310920 308932 307946 305966 305971 307980 310987
      311993 314996 322998 331998 336995 339992 342983 345977
      349971 357957 366940 369930 371921 375906 380888 386870
      392850 396834 400816 404797 404791 403783 402777 403769
      406754 409735 416693 418679 418664
 1.00 398756 399754 399751 397750 397752 396754 396756 395759
      397761 397758 398757 398756
 1.00 399800 399794 397791 392784 388781 385784 380791 376812
      371819 367829 359845 356854 351864 344881 335900 328915
      318932 317936 317941 316955 320965 325969 330968 336963
      341957 346949 350945 354941 361925 369905 376888 382868
      388848 393826 399800
 1.00 395763 397761 395759 395761 395763 395764 395763
 1.50 390817 387798 384800 383804 380814 372826 364841 362848
      360856 357865 354873 340902 334916 326930 323937 322947
      327952 330954 334953 342942 346936 351927 358915 365900
      378868 383853 384845 386834 390817
 2.00 381843 378830 378825 374829 368840 366845 365852 364858
      363867 359879 356884 355892 358890 361885 364880 367874
      370869 375865 379852 381843
 2.00 352910 352905 349902 345908 342915 339922 336930 333936
      332944 334945 336943 337940 341934 344927 348920 351912
      352910

$$





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