Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181846
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/0000 UTC THRU JUL 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID-ATL/SOUTHEAST BACK INTO TN/OH VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY

AN ANOMALOUS AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUES.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MID-ATL STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR STALL ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A MIDWEST 500MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
WILL POOL OUT AHEAD AND INVOF OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TMRW
AFTN/EVENING ACROSS SERN VA INTO ERN NC. TOUGH TO DISCERN HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OR POSSIBLY PERSIST BACK UPSTREAM WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS... OTHER THAN DIURNAL PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE DO NOT DEPICT ANY SMALL SCALE
IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE FCST
PERIOD... FROM THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY. WPC OVERALL GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE LAST 2 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS WITH ADDITIONAL
HI-RES OUTPUT FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHOULD YIELD MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUES. THE
GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS OVERALL LARGE SCALE SCENARIO ALONG WITH A
DISCERNIBLE SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF CO/WY
INTO NE/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. THE WRN FRINGE OF
RING OF FIRE SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
POSSIBLY EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS... TOUGH TO GAUGE HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM THE DAKOTAS/NE INTO MN/NE. WPC WENT IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS IN LOWERING AMOUNTS BUT THE PATTERN IS
IDEAL FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

...PAC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES...

UNSETTLED TUES ACROSS THE NW WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PAC THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS ERN WA/OR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

...GULF COAST/SOUTH...

TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN HRS NEAR THE GULF COAST/SOUTH AND FL ON TUES.
WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.


MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 529237 532225 534210 536193 536182 534170 531165 528162
      527156 528148 529135 527132 525135 519141 512149 507148
      503143 500137 500133 503132 506130 512129 520128 523128
      524118 524113 521108 515103 509105 502110 496116 493119
      491119 491114 493110 497102 502088 508081 514073 518063
      520057 521050 523036 524020 525002 514960 509954 501949
      499946 498948 498951 499960 500965 499972 495968 491965
      487964 483960 480959 478961 476961 473956 471952 469949
      469945 467939 463937 459937 454939 451939 449936 447930
      448924 452921 449915 446912 443911 439912 435911 426909
      423906 418904 413884 406859 404845 402833 402825 403818
      409810 408803 408796 411786 409775 405773 403783 400788
      396788 394781 396776 400774 401769 404762 407757 411759
      413760 414758 418755 417752 415751 413747 415743 419738
      425737 428736 429740 431747 431754 432759 435756 435751
      432744 433738 436735 432729 425732 421731 421727 423726
      428725 430723 434714 432713 428717 424718 421717 418716
      416715 416712 418708 422705 426705 430706 435703 436696
      438691 441687 442682 445678 449675 452670 452662 450654
      447652 443655 433669 427676 420682 393705 388713 385717
      380719 370718 366722 354737 348745 344757 342767 339776
      331790 326796 318800 310804 306807 302804 295799 292796
      287795 277793 272792 267793 255793 247799 240806 239810
      239815 246832 251837 259842 265844 275842 284839 288837
      287843 285852 284857 286861 290866 294866 296868 297870
      295875 290886 287896 286907 283918 275933 271939 266946
      255957 249964 246972 242975 237977 234981 233987 236996
      241999 246001 256004 264003 280998 284997 284994 286990
      290989
 0.01 516281 512285 507288 502283 499272 495266 493263 489261
      479257 471255 464255 458257 451259 447259 443258 440255
      440251 445248 452244 457239 454237 451238 444238 445236
      449234 452234 455231 460225 461222 461218 462213 465209
      470203 474199 478192 480189 481183 478182 476180 476177
      478174 480172 479170 477167 472161 472157 474153 476147
      478144 481143 483140 485138 482135 478136 475139 472136
      473133 471129 471124 468123 466125 463121 464116 467112
      464108 459111 457115 449119 443113 442111 439110 437107
      434104 431104 427108 423116 421130 420135 419133 419129
      420121 419117 415117 416113 419113 421112 423110 423106
      422100 423096 426096 428094 424091 424089 427089 430089
      431090 436092 439088 441082 443082 444085 443091 445092
      450090 454090 458091 459089 457083 460079 467065 463057
      458048 461047 463050 467053 470053 469060 472063 474064
      474069 480076 485082 488082 489080 487074 485063 485050
      486040 486032 487030 478025 471026 474030 476031 470035
      466031 462035 460040 458042 455042 446042 442043 438042
      435044 433047 432044 433038 433035 431032 428031 425034
      424039 419045 418050 420052 422050 427051 434056 435059
      433061 431060 430064 429069 432070 434068 438067 447070
      449080 443074 439072 434072 426075 420082 418086 418090
      419092 413097 414102 413106 410110 409113 410117 409119
      407122 401129 399129 397124 401120 403119 403115 398115
      395118 389124 386127 381127 378131 372130 370126 366126
      357124 352126 352130 354131 357129 360129 364132 365135
      357131 353133 348133 342127 338133 331131 322130 316129
      312126 304121 295117 290115 285114 278109 271102 265097
      261094 265089 262086 261081 259074 258069 260065 266059
      271059 275062 281067 290066 292065 295067 297069 301072
      306073 309070 312065 312062 314056 323056 328053 332053
      338054 339056 342056 346057 348057 347053 350051 353046
      355048 360046 366048 376045 377041 381038 382029 381026
      382022 384016 383013 383006 385004 387007 390006 390002
      396995 399993 402994 408989 410987 413993 416992 417989
      419984 419979 418972 418968 416966 412963 410958 409951
      406943 404939 401938 397938 394936 392932 389931 381931
      375927 374914 371903 370897 368893 358890 354889 351890
      352893 351900 350903 347909 351912 350916 354920 357923
      361929 366936 370943 366943 362941 358942 354945 354952
      352956 347961 345965 341967 337976 330980 323974 324969
      323964 323962 320961 317958 312960 310959 311953 314951
      317955 320955 321951 323945 319940 317936 314935 312937
      306941 305946 307952 307957 306962 301969 296975 292982
      292987 290989 527244 526244 525246 525249 525252 525254
      524257 524259 524262
 0.01 527244 527242 528239 529237 530234 530232 531230 532227
 0.01 483227 483224 482223 481224 479224 477224 476225 477226
      479226 480227 482227 483227
 0.01 484687 478680 476672 471668 467668 464670 464673 465677
      467679 471681 475683 475689 473695 470698 466697 463698
      458701 454704 450709 447713 444713 440718 439726 439731
      443733 444739 443745 446746 446739 448732 453735 452741
      451748 452750 455750 460748 460740 460732 467722 469709
      471703 477699 481693 484687
 0.01 483196 483195 481193 479195 479198 481199 481198 482197
      483196
 0.01 482168 481165 479165 477167 479169 481170 482168
 0.01 491990 490989 489988 488987 487986 485987 486990 486992
      487994 489992 490992 491990
 0.01 484108 485105 485103 485100 484099 482099 480100 479100
      477102 477104 477106 478109 479109 481109 483109 484108
 0.01 467184 466181 464179 465176 468172 469167 467162 465164
      463162 459165 455164 452164 450168 450173 442188 435208
      431217 425220 423222 425225 428224 433227 437224 445221
      451220 454218 456214 454213 452211 454209 460205 457202
      457196 463189 467184
 0.01 480997 480994 480992 479989 477989 475989 474987 473989
      473992 473994 473996 473998 474999 475001 476999 477998
      478998 480997
 0.01 468969 469962 466957 464954 462949 459945 454945 452946
      451949 453954 456957 456964 456971 460973 464971 468969
 0.01 466013 463007 460001 456998 451994 448993 445995 441000
      441008 442014 444011 448010 453012 456013 458015 463016
      466013
 0.01 453102 451100 450100 448100 446099 444099 443096 441096
      440098 439100 439102 439103 437103 435105 437107 439107
      440107 442108 444106 446106 447104 448104 449104 451104
      453102
 0.01 433023 434021 433021 432021 433023 433023
 0.01 404098 405095 405093 404091 403089 402090 401091 401092
      400095 399095 399097 401098 401099 402101 404100 404098
      404098
 0.01 404000 403000 401000 399998 397000 399002 401004 402002
      403000 404000 404000
 0.01 395030 395027 393027 392029 391032 389034 389036 389038
      390041 392039 392038 393036 393034 394032 395031 395030
 0.01 357062 355061 354062 355063 357062 357062
 0.01 349070 343063 341061 336059 332061 327061 327064 329066
      333066 332068 326070 323066 319063 316064 317066 317069
      315075 315078 318079 322072 327070 331073 334072 338069
      341069 346072 349070
 0.01 352886 350884 350881 350879 349877 348875 348873 346871
      345873 345875 346877 347879 347882 347884 347886 347888
      349890 351888 352886
 0.01 326081 326079 325077 323076 322078 322080 323081 325081
      326081
 0.01 322922 321915 322913 322909 318905 313901 308905 306907
      306911 305913 306916 308924 312922 314924 314928 317934
      320933 319928 319924 322922
 0.01 309045 309043 310041 310039 308036 306036 304038 302040
      300042 300044 302046 304047 305047 307047 309045 309045
 0.01 303827 302825 300826 298826 296828 295830 297831 298831
      300831 301829 302829 303827
 0.25 518257 518254 515251 510244 508236 500233 496232 496237
      500245 501251 498253 498258 502266 508266 513269 515266
      518260 518257
 0.25 517230 517227 517225 516222 516220 516219 515218 514219
      514221 513223 513226 512228 512229 511231 511233 511235
      513236 514236 516235 516233 517231 517230
 0.25 517203 519193 520187 520181 519178 517174 512174 505163
      501157 499149 496142 494140 491140 490145 491148 496154
      496159 495162 490167 492176 491182 492186 492190 493193
      495196 498195 503191 506190 510192 514197 517204 517203
 0.25 490203 491201 491200 489199 488200 489202 490203 490203
 0.25 503052 503049 503046 503044 502040 500039 497037 495038
      494043 494048 493053 493058 493064 496065 498063 499059
      501058 503055 503052
 0.25 490188 489186 488185 487183 487185 485187 485189 485190
      486192 488190 490188
 0.25 484212 484211 483209 484212 484212
 0.25 475019 474014 473009 470004 469999 467994 465990 463994
      464998 466003 467009 470012 471018 474020 475019
 0.25 449976 448975 448974 447972 446971 445970 443969 442970
      441971 441973 442974 442976 443977 445978 447978 448977
      449976
 0.25 442954 443950 442947 438945 429938 426934 424928 423924
      421923 418922 417919 415913 412909 410908 409904 408894
      404882 403876 401869 398867 396869 394874 395881 391879
      383885 381891 381895 383897 387900 390904 395906 399909
      405918 410931 411940 413947 415954 417959 421962 424966
      430970 433967 435961 442954
 0.25 430006 429004 429003 427003 427004 425005 425006 425008
      425009 427010 429009 429008 430006
 0.25 409709 409707 408705 407707 407709 406710 407711 408710
      409709
 0.25 408059 406055 400055 392052 389050 388052 388056 382063
      379063 376064 376066 377071 377078 379081 381081 383079
      385075 385072 383068 384065 387067 390068 394068 397065
      399060 402057 405060 408059
 0.25 405037 406035 407033 407030 405030 403033 402035 403037
      403038 405038 405037
 0.25 402074 403072 402069 401068 399068 398069 396071 396073
      395073 396074 397076 399076 401075 402074
 0.25 392746 391743 389744 386744 382741 379734 375731 371729
      367733 364739 359748 356752 352757 345781 343787 343795
      345800 350803 355800 358796 362791 365785 372778 378778
      378786 371796 366798 362803 353822 350828 348834 348837
      350839 352840 355840 358835 360830 362831 362837 359844
      360848 362847 365847 367848 371853 375862 381869 382873
      385874 389874 391872 391869 391863 398855 393853 389854
      384857 381856 379852 379845 380839 381833 383827 387817
      390811 389806 387806 382809 378809 377806 378803 380798
      388790 389788 389784 387778 386774 383774 381772 385771
      386764 389758 392746
 0.25 395115 394111 391110 389111 385112 383113 380115 379117
      379120 382120 385119 388119 390118 392116 395115
 0.25 394098 394096 394095 392095 392096 391098 392100 394099
      394098
 0.25 390080 389077 387081 384083 384086 382089 380092 376096
      376099 379101 381099 385095 387093 389086 390081 390080
 0.25 382775 380773 379775 378775 379776 380776 382775
 0.25 382108 381106 381105 380106 379107 378107 378108 380109
      382108
 0.25 378762 377761 376760 375759 373759 372761 373763 374764
      375765 376765 377764 378762
 0.25 367122 367120 365119 363121 364123 364124 366124 367122
 0.25 368815 369813 368812 367813 367815 368816 368815
 0.25 362092 364090 362088 360088 359089 359091 360092 362092
      362092
 0.25 362065 360064 359064 358065 358067 359067 360067 362065
 0.25 355120 355117 354117 353116 351116 350117 351117 352119
      352120 354120 355120
 0.25 346112 346110 346107 345105 344105 343102 341104 341106
      341107 340109 341109 342111 343111 344113 346113 346112
 0.25 342098 342094 340091 339089 341087 341083 341082 337084
      335086 335087 337089 337093 337097 340099 342098
 0.25 327109 327107 326105 325104 323104 323105 322106 323107
      323108 324110 326110 327109
 0.25 317105 315103 314100 312097 311094 309092 308090 306089
      304089 302093 302097 305100 307101 308102 312104 314105
      317105
 0.25 320879 318877 317875 316871 315869 313867 311865 309863
      308863 307867 306870 307873 307875 310877 312877 316878
      319879 320879
 0.25 280968 279967 277967 276966 274968 275969 277970 278970
      279970 280968
 0.25 264813 264804 261799 256799 252803 248806 245811 246817
      250818 250810 252806 253812 254816 256818 262817 264813
 0.50 504181 504179 503177 502176 502175 500174 500175 499178
      500179 500180 501182 503183 504181
 0.50 435949 431946 428941 424938 419935 416938 414942 416945
      419952 421958 424963 428967 429966 430961 432954 435949
 0.50 392114 391113 389113 387113 386113 385114 383115 385117
      387117 388117 390116 392114
 0.50 385786 385783 384784 383785 382786 382787 380789 382790
      384789 384788 385787 385786
 0.50 386093 386090 385090 384091 383092 383093 385094 386093
 0.50 382072 382069 382067 381065 380065 379067 379069 380071
      380072 381074 382072
 0.50 373738 373734 371733 368737 363746 359756 355766 352777
      350781 349785 351791 355790 358786 361781 366773 367768
      367759 372749 373738
 0.50 376821 376819 375819 374820 372820 371822 370823 370824
      369826 368827 368829 369830 371829 371828 372826 374824
      375823 376822 376821
 0.50 371801 370800 368800 367801 366802 366804 367807 368806
      369806 370804 371803 371801
 0.50 361825 361823 361821 361818 359818 359819 357819 356820
      355821 355824 356826 358826 360826 361825
 0.50 357832 355830 355829 354828 353828 352828 352831 352833
      352835 353836 355837 357834 357833 357832
 0.50 261811 260809 260808 258808 256809 255812 256814 257814
      259815 260813 261811
 1.00 425947 424946 424945 423943 422942 421942 419942 418942
      419945 421947 423949 424949 425947

$$





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