Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110931
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 11/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

06Z UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE..PER COLLAB
REQUESTS

NORTHERN PLAINS..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GT LAKES..NEW ENGLAND

THE ONLY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL ACROSS THIS
REGION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES..AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACCOMPANIES A PAIR OF CLIPPER S/WV FEATURES DROPPING SEWD FROM
CANADA.  INITIAL S/WV WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK ACRS SRN WI AND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI MON NIGHT.  A SECONDARY
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP NORTH OF THIS WAVE ACRS THE NRN GT LAKES
IN RESPONSE TO A STGR S/WV THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WRN AND
CNTL LAKES REGION WITH THE LOWS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING TOWARD
LAKE ERIE BY TUES MORNING AS SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE.  THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WITH STG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
LOCAL .25"+ LIQUID EQUIVS JUST NORTH OF THE SRN LOW TRACK AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE CNTL U.P. OF MI AND THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MI
WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE NWLY FETCH BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC
SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND SO A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS GENLY PREFERRED.   FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON SNOW...PLEASE SEE QPFHSD.

SULLIVAN


DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS VALUE FROM THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
ECMWF AND GFS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.
BETWEEN A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT SETS UP STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE FROM VT TO ME AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON
DAY 2.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DAY 2/3 QPF
DISCUSSION...THERE IS CONCERN OVER MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES...SO REFER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK.  H85 FLOW OF 45 KTS TO 55 KTS WILL BE DRAWING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE OVER ME WHERE THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DIRECTED UPSLOPE
BY THOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE QPF ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE LOW/MID LEVEL FROTOGENESIS.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION WILL
SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ON THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN...AND RELATIVELY
WARM...WATERS.  A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP-LATE DAY 2 INTO DAY
3 OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND UPSTATE NY AS THE FLOW ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN.


...UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DRY...LEADING
TO GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  HAVING SAID THAT...LOCALIZED
BANDING MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 501282 503276 502270 499263 493248 491245 488244 485245
      481244 477242 474243 468243 456249 454255 451256 445258
      441258 440261 441264 445267 447270 452271 458271 466271
      473272 477272 481273 484272 485272 487274 491281 493284
      497284 501282
 0.01 517046 515038 510032 504024 497015 490005 484994 482989
      479984 474974 471962 468944 467939 470935 472931 482905
      484899 487894 491889 495886 499880 501875 501865 500856
      505852 508846 510840 512833 512824 511817 510812 508811
      500789 499783 495777 495774 492774 489780 485785 481784
      479781 477777 474774 473769 475756 474745 475742 475738
      472733 469731 460730 456725 454719 453713 454708 450710
      446710 444708 435703 430702 427707 420716 412723 407732
      403741 401753 398770 398778 397785 380800 375809 368815
      360821 357823 357827 357830 359830 363824 367820 373821
      376823 380819 385817 388822 389831 391835 395837 401837
      407840 408845 408849 406847 398843 393842 396847 403856
      410864 411868 412872 412882 417893 420906 425914 428917
      431923 434940 435951 436958 436964 438968 438972 440978
      441982 438983 424980 426985 429989 433993 436997 439000
      442000 446000 450002 458011 472029 479034 487040 497046
      505050 514051 517046
 0.01 468656 464642 461638 458639 452641 448644 440650 426663
      413677 398688 392697 391702 391709 392711 395712 400712
      404710 407707 418691 426685 435684 441682 445680 452674
      456670 459665 462662 466660 468656
 0.01 467684 466684 465685 463685 461686 461688 462689 464690
      465688 465687 466685 467684
 0.01 264792 260792 255792 251794 246795 240797 235798 232800
      235803 241802 245801 248798 253797 259796 262794 264792
 0.25 449660 449655 446654 443656 442658 439660 437663 436666
      435669 437672 440672 443670 445668 447665 448662 449660
 0.25 466873 466868 465865 464860 460855 457854 452857 448858
      442858 438858 433856 430855 429852 427850 425853 424858
      421860 422862 426866 430867 435865 445866 451865 457864
      460865 464868 466873
 0.25 460822 460818 459815 456812 449810 441806 438804 437799
      441777 441771 439765 437753 435752 432753 430757 427765
      426771 424776 420783 417788 416793 416804 418810 420814
      423819 423825 424832 426834 433828 448826 456824 460822

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 513288 501270 493262 483258 477256 471256 463259 454262
      446265 429274 429272 432265 439258 454248 457246 463245
      474247 481249 487250 491250 512255 524260
 0.01 487614 496628 504646 514668 518681 520695 522711 522726
      519734 515741 511750 506756 494764 491767 486768 483770
      481774 483785 484798 484806 483811 478815 473817 467821
      460827 453834 446831 442829 438828 430824 404818 402816
      399814 397814 394818 397821 403825 406833 411841 414845
      420846 439848 448850 451850 455852 457852 460849 462846
      469849 478864 480868 481874 479880 474887 478892 484897
      487899 489901 491899 497901 502903 506907 510910 514911
      520916 524919 528920 534925 539931 545938 549945 552957
      552962 552969 552974 550977 547979 543979 540982 539987
      534995 531995 528993 521986 515979 507973 504971 500969
      474927 471922 469918 466910 463900 461889 462885 462880
      459875 456871 450872 449872 446869 440870 436871 428874
      420873 414870 412868 409864 405856 399849 394844 391840
      387838 382834 380832 378833 375837 370842 368847 366849
      363852 359855 355857 355854 358851 361847 363843 364839
      364836 357839 354841 352840 353832 356822 362816 367811
      377800 383793 389788 402780 407778 409775 408772 405768
      401765 398761 398756 399751 402746 403740 402733 399729
      396728 391734 386742 381748 375753 369752 363750 360748
      355750 353753 350755 341759 336763 327767 322770 317774
      305787 301793 299796 296796 293788 295780 298773 302765
      306759 309751 311743 312738 316737 319734 321731 325725
      338709 349695 356689 362684 375674 401652 411645 416642
      420637
 0.01 520078 519071 519065 518062 514058 513055 515051 517047
      518044 517041 511032 503024 501020 500013 482002 480999
      478999 472000 466999 461001 457004 454010 459012 465011
      480017 482023 486027 490030 493036 490040 487044 487051
      490056 507070 509075 513079 520078
 0.01 479942 479939 477937 476934 472932 471932 469929 467930
      465932 466935 467937 469940 471942 472945 474947 477947
      479944 479942
 0.01 263782 262778 260778 255784 251789 247795 245803 243809
      246813 252808 256803 259796 261788 263782
 0.01 241797 240797 238796 237796 236795 235795 233796 231797
      229798 229799 230800 232801 233802 235801 237800 239798
      240798 241797
 0.25 507683 506676 504668 498653 493644 485635 479630 473627
      468626 458626 452627 449628 446631 438638 431648 428652
      428656 426659 419666 412673 420680 418690 416696 416703
      420714 420722 418728 417734 416742 417750 421754 424752
      425759 425769 425777 422781 416790 413800 413811 415813
      418812 427807 434805 440805 444807 447810 450810 450806
      447800 448793 450787 456779 461770 465764 469759 477752
      484745 491738 497733 500728 504717 507703 507691 507683
 0.25 473878 473874 471872 470868 469865 467862 464863 461864
      462869 463871 465873 466876 468878 470880 471880 473878
 0.25 446860 445860 443859 441859 440859 439859 438858 436858
      434858 433859 431859 433861 434862 436862 438863 440863
      441863 443863 444863 445861 446860
 0.25 429862 427860 426858 423858 420857 418856 415855 413856
      413861 415863 417865 419866 423866 426865 428864 429862
 0.25 389705 383707 374709 366712 362713 359716 355721 352728
      351732 352735 354734 361730 369728 376724 381718 386713
      388706 389705
 0.25 395793 393793 390794 388796 386798 384800 383802 381805
      379807 382807 383806 385804 388801 390800 392798 394796
      395793
 0.50 500693 499683 496677 495679 494683 492682 491674 491669
      492669 493666 489665 484653 479648 474644 466642 460642
      455643 448650 446653 443655 441657 440661 433685 428695
      426703 426708 428712 430713 432716 431723 429728 431731
      435734 437735 440734 444728 444725 446717 449712 450706
      455705 457707 456713 453720 451728 448740 445745 439746
      435750 434757 433765 429769 429779 428785 426789 423790
      419792 417796 417803 417806 420806 424802 431793 434789
      436782 437776 441773 450764 453764 456762 458757 459751
      463745 467742 472740 482731 486728 491725 497714 499703
      500693
 1.00 453686 453685 451686 453686 453686
 1.00 444693 443691 440691 438693 435695 434698 434701 434704
      436707 438707 440706 441703 442699 443696 444693

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 472619 478625 484628 494637 499642 504649 507657 509661
      510666 513677 515692 516700 515706 516714 515721 510741
      509747 506753 502760 490772 485772 481771 479770 467764
      462763 458764 455764 453762 450759 446759 441761 440765
      439772 440781 442792 443800 442805 444810 447814 450818
      453823 458830 464834 469840 474844 477850 485866 487870
      490873 495878 506888 512894 519901 524908 528917 533926
      536936 543954 544964 545971 544976 541980 538981 536979
      523973 519973 516971 509970 505980 498985 494984 491979
      489979 489983 492987 497995 503001 508005 511008 515009
      520014 522015 524020 524025 525029 527032 531033 539035
      546040 551046 555053 554056 552057 549054 544049 539047
      536048 531050 529054 526058 521062 517063 512062 504061
      501059 499055 495048 492041 489033 486029 482028 476026
      469022 463017 461013 461008 468003 470001 469998 467995
      458989 453983 449979 448976 450971 454966 459962 462961
      465959 467954 466949 464942 463929 461920 455916 450909
      448905 445902 441904 439903 437891 433883 427875 423872
      418873 414875 408875 404874 401871 400867 399862 400851
      403844 403836 401834 400827 397819 396815 393812 391810
      387809 379807 379803 381800 384797 388795 394789 397786
      402783 404780 407780 409777 413776 418773 423763 424759
      423753 425748 427745 432745 437744 437738 437735 436732
      434732 431731 430728 433725 436724 439722 439719 440716
      447709 454702 457697 459692 459688 458682 451680 442682
      440680 437681 434679 430678 424680 419686 411691 409693
      405695 399693 395685 392675 391670 392666 394659 400653
      407646 416643 419644 422644 426642 430642 434644 441648
      444652 447653 450651 458644 451641 447635 445629
 0.01 471645 472642 470641 469643 469644 467644 466645 465645
      464644 462644 461645 459647 461648 463648 464647 466649
      468649 470650 471648 471645 471645
 0.01 466073 466070 466068 466066 465065 464064 463062 462062
      461061 459060 457060 456061 456063 455064 454066 454069
      455070 456071 457073 458074 458075 460076 462076 463076
      464075 465074 466073
 0.01 454110 455108 454106 453105 453104 452102 451102 450101
      448100 446100 445101 444103 444104 446105 447106 448107
      449108 451109 451110 452111 454111 454110
 0.01 442045 442038 441033 438030 436029 435026 433022 428023
      426025 424029 424037 428038 431040 434043 438046 442045
 0.25 502708 501699 499693 495678 493674 490673 487675 484678
      482683 480689 479691 476693 472696 468700 467705 468709
      470711 474710 480711 485709 484715 484720 487724 492725
      496721 499717 501710 502708

$$




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