Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210925
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 21/1200 UTC THRU MAY 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S...

A RATHER SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL UTAH TO EASTERN WYOMING.
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS GENERALLY INCREASE WITH NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT...AS A NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE UP
THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...OPENING UP DIFLUENT FLOW
OVER NORTHERN ID/MT...AND SLIGING AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE BACK
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. OUT ALONG THE LEADING FRONTAL
ZONE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
LIFT OUT OF THE U.S. THIS EVENING. A FEW HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN
MT/WY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR BACK UNDERNEATH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ID/MT AND EASTERN
OREGON. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AT VALUES MAINLY UNDER
ONE INCH. WPC USED A BLEND OF OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...BEFORE MAKING MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.


...CENTRAL U.S...

DIFFICULT FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE
LIKELY...BOTH ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED...BUT THE INGREDIENTS FOR
LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN THE SAME PLACE AT
THE SAME TIME. EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM SCALE
PROCESSES...MORE-SO THAN USUAL...WHICH TENDS TO LOWER QPF
CONFIDENCE. ON TOP OF THIS...THE CAP WILL BE BUILDING AT THE SAME
TIME THAT MOISTURE DEPTH IS TRYING TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG...AND COULD BE A PRIMARY
DRIVER BEHIND LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...BUT THERE
COULD BE AREAS IN WHICH THE CAP PREVENTS CONVECTION OR LIMITS ITS
EFFECTIVENESS. FOR THESE REASONS THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS
ARE DISPLAYING A LOT OF SENSITIVITY. SOME...LIKE THE THE NAM CONUS
NEST AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION...WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL WRF PREDICT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WRF-ARW MAY BE
OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY GIVEN THAT
AREA IS DIRECTLY WITHIN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 700-500 MB. WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH THIS LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS...BUT
ODDS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH SEEM MORE LIKELY WITHIN THE DEEPER AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO NEAR LUBBOCK TX. THESE THOUGHTS LINE UP BETTER
WITH THE NSSL WRF...ALTHOUGH WPC TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
FORECAST AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE QPF HERE WAS
DERIVED NOT ONLY FROM THE 00Z NSSL WRF...BUT ALSO THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE WRF-NMM AND THE ECMWF.


...EASTERN U.S...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...MAKE THIS A
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST IN THE EAST. THE INHERITED
FORECAST WAS MORE BROAD WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...SO WE ATTEMPTED TO REFINE
EXPECTATIONS USING SOME OF THE DETAIL OF THE ECMWF AND PROBABILITY
FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WHICH ARGUED FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE COASTAL LOW...AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS. STILL...EXPECT WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 2.0 INCH AMOUNTS
THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC.

DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHWEST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR SOME INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWS A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS...ONE ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF WESTERN OR/WA...WHERE
SHORTWAVES ROTATING ASHORE AND WEAK ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1". A MORE IMPRESSIVE
MAXIMUM APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MT. THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT...WHICH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE 1-3" OF
QPF...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE REGION ALSO BECOMES SITUATED IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THUS SEEMS LIKELY THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN
SD/NE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEAN LAYER WINDS ARE PRETTY STRONG OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTING
AN INITIAL QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH AND NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE MEAN FLOW...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AS THE CONVECTION
ORGANIZES IT WILL BEGIN PROPAGATING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOOKING AT
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AROUND 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE...SUGGESTING A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TRY TO KEEP
CONVECTION MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AND IS THUS A NEGATIVE FOR A
POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PARAMETERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BACKBUILDING/TRAINING
WOULD SEEM LIKE AT LEAST A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NE. CORFIDI VECTORS DO BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE
TRENDS AS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION GETS HUNG
UP LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FLOOD THREAT. BUT FOR NOW THE SIGNAL
AMONG THE GUIDANCE SEEMS BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...WITH THE RISK LEVEL BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY A MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN ON DAY 2 IS ACROSS TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EVEN LOWER HERE GIVEN
THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING. SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG
THE DRY LINE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS THAT WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THIS BEST POTENTIAL IS...BUT THOUGHT THE 0Z NSSL WRF
AND THE 0Z ECMWF SHOWED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION...DROPPING A
SYSTEM SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAY THEN SEE REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN
THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND ALSO BACK WEST
CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE. THEN DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING ACTIVITY
IMPACTS THE ENVIRONMENT...COULD SEE ANOTHER MCS MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS OF THIS
POTENTIAL BEING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 0Z GFS/UKMET
AND 12Z ECMWF. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE DETAILS
ACROSS TEXAS ON DAY 2. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKE MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
OF CONVECTION GETTING HUNG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE DEPENDING
ON ANY MCS EVOLUTION. NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS TIME TO
PINPOINT AN AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE TIME PERIOD WHEN
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE AVAILABLE.

ON DAY 3 CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FORM ALONG THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  CONVECTION ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES AND
IMPACTS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THUS THE DAY 3 FORECAST IS
GENERALLY OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY QPF DETAILS. BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION FORMS...WITH A MARGINAL
FLOOD RISK LIKELY EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM TX/LA ALL
THE WAY TO MS/WI. BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON THE DETAILS FOR
ANY SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. DID NUDGE WPC QPF A BIT
WESTWARD TO BETTER MATCH RECENT TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.

...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AN
INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE TREND BEING FOR A SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE
TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY....ALLOWING FOR A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO
HOW IT WAS HANDLING THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THE NEW 0Z RUNS LOOKED
MUCH BETTER. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A 0Z ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS
IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME AT THIS TIME AND FALLS CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 546169 547156 548139 549129 550123 552106 552098 552092
      548082 545076 542072 537072 533073 529073 524071 517066
      500055 497053 495048 494041 492037 488032 484031 476026
      466025 458029 451035 447037 444035 441033 436032 428036
      424039 420043 418048 417055 418060 420063 430067 439072
      444073 448075 450076 450079 446081 442085 437084 435080
      428079 424077 422074 418073 414075 408082 400089 398092
      396097 393100 391105 389111 390116 397122 398125 397129
      395133 385150 383153 381159 379165 374167 373171 373175
      373179 372180 366179 362182 363188 366193 369196 372204
      369213 376232 381242 387250 394255 403261 409262 414260
      415255 413243 413240 415239 418237 427237 431235 432232
      434231 439233 442234 440236 436243 440245 446246 452248
      455247 465247 473244 476242 481241 482239 483234 484232
      487232 492235 495239 500246 505253 509254 509248 511242
      514237 516224 514219 516213 521201 522198 524198 525191
      528187 532187 546169
 0.01 515869 512851 509841 506831 504778 501755 501733 501727
      502722 502715 502709 502698 501684 498667 497659 496655
      494649 492646 489639 486636 483636 477643 474644 473649
      469656 466663 462667 459669 453678 450685 448692 443708
      439713 436710 434705 433702 434697 436688 438679 438670
      437663 435658 434654 431651 423651 414652 407655 401662
      399665 395667 390672 385677 381683 374695 368702 365704
      361706 333722 324731 314742 303754 286762 276769 264779
      262778 257780 255782 253786 252794 250802 246809 245813
      248815 252815 254814 260817 266821 274823 278830 281836
      285840 292842 308844 317842 320839 321834 321824 322816
      324806 322797 326790 327795 326799 347800 349805 348811
      351819 352825 351830 349833 350836 351841 354844 358846
      360845 361851 361856 363860 368869 375869 380869 383867
      386865 386860 387857 389854 391854 394853 396850 396844
      398840 403836 406834 410834 416840 419839 422837 427832
      431825 436817 438810 438804 436801 434799 432793 434784
      436775 441757 446739 451723 453714 455706 458704 459710
      458716 459723 458742 457767 457772 456779 457788 456793
      453797 449799 448802 445810 444819 444824 446827 447833
      449834 450836 454833 458825 461828 462832 464836 467838
      469841 473841 475838 477837 478840 480850 483860 486869
      489878 493886 498891 501893 505893 510890 514881 514873
      515869
 0.01 491253 491250 491248 491247 489246 488244 486245 485246
      485248 486249 487251 488253 490253 491253
 0.01 428245 428242 428241 426240 424240 423239 421239 420240
      419241 418242 418243 420244 422245 423245 425245 427246
      428245
 0.01 433971 379931 375931 371934 368936 366940 362949 362956
      363961 364972 369981 360980 348979 338980 335980 333978
      330975 319962 314956 310948 308944 305941 300942 296941
      290945 284951 278958 274966 271974 276981 280983 286985
      292990 294992 299992 311992 317994 318999 321008 316015
      313018 309015 300013 295014 291015 286010 279005 264996
      257995 252993 249991 243991 240998 241002 245004 251007
      255009 261009 264007 268007 271009 273014 279018 284020
      289021 290027 293029 299037 316037 337037 348036 353035
      357034 359031 359027 358025 360023 363021 370016 373014
      377015 381018 387018 390016 390011 391008 394008 396010
      400012 406013 410015 416015 418015 418012 418006 415998
      411990 405984 401981 398977 395970 391967 390966 392964
      403964 408966 414966 417966 421968 425972 428973 431973
      433971
 0.01 417149 417144 416141 412134 408134 406136 405142 399157
      396163 392168 390169 385168 383172 382174 380179 382181
      386183 390188 392191 396193 401197 403198 405196 406186
      406177 409172 410164 411159 412156 415151 417149
 0.01 299863 299859 297855 294852 291850 286851 283852 276857
      270862 265868 261875 261878 263882 267887 270890 272894
      272899 271903 271909 272913 276920 277923 281925 285920
      288916 289912 289901 288889 291881 294874 299863
 0.25 540113 540108 537105 533102 529103 517090 512086 507078
      501070 493064 483050 476045 472043 467042 458043 454044
      455049 448053 445054 443053 441050 437048 432049 428051
      427054 444061 453061 463063 472068 480073 486079 487084
      484087 475091 469095 463098 460102 462107 466111 469115
      470121 468125 464131 457137 451143 451148 450150 448149
      445147 442145 440146 437149 435155 437166 444171 440176
      437178 432177 430171 429174 425184 424189 424195 426206
      443212 446213 445218 446222 451224 459228 464230 468229
      476228 483224 492223 498231 502231 504225 501213 500200
      499195 496191 493187 491186 489188 486191 483197 480200
      477202 470205 464207 458206 455202 455196 457192 463185
      464179 466174 470172 475173 479172 482173 488180 490183
      493183 500178 514170 521165 527160 530158 533152 535147
      536139 537128 540113
 0.25 453098 452096 450096 448096 447097 446099 448101 449101
      451100 452100 453098 453098
 0.25 448109 446104 443102 439099 436096 433094 428093 425096
      425101 428105 431109 435111 439112 441116 445116 447111
      448109
 0.25 426681 426676 424671 422667 418664 415664 410665 401670
      395675 389681 384689 380697 376703 374707 371709 365711
      362715 356720 339729 333733 329740 324745 318751 316755
      315761 310761 308764 304772 300774 295773 287772 282777
      275792 272795 269796 263797 258799 254804 254808 257811
      261813 265813 273816 278817 283816 288815 291813 292808
      289804 287801 286796 287785 290784 293785 297786 301785
      308781 316781 320780 323777 329770 333763 338758 341756
      346754 354753 356755 356758 358764 362771 364773 364777
      366782 369785 376789 381795 380799 377803 374803 370802
      366801 363804 362806 362810 363816 362820 363826 365829
      371835 375837 378833 381824 384820 388818 395814 400809
      404806 408804 413804 417801 419792 425772 428764 428762
      423762 415762 413760 412754 417735 422716 424694 426681
 0.25 407236 408232 408228 406227 403226 401226 398227 396229
      394230 392232 392236 394238 397240 399242 402244 405243
      406239 407236
 0.25 413106 413103 411101 409101 408101 406102 406103 405105
      404107 405109 405110 407111 408111 410110 410109 411108
      412106 413106
 0.25 389986 388984 387981 385980 385979 384978 382977 381979
      380981 381983 382984 383986 384986 385987 387988 388988
      389987 389986 373972 373972
 0.25 298830 298828 296827 294826 293826 292828 293830 295831
      297831 298830
 0.25 292866 293863 292860 289857 286858 282861 279865 277869
      276873 278878 281880 285878 287875 290870 292866 292866
 0.50 532136 532126 530117 526110 521106 516102 510099 503094
      499092 496094 494096 490101 483100 478102 475104 473106
      473109 475113 489119 493123 496125 497129 498134 501136
      501140 498141 495142 492140 490137 487134 481131 477131
      474132 470136 466144 464147 463152 463161 465164 468166
      472166 475166 477164 481164 484163 487159 487157 490154
      493150 494150 499155 505159 510156 512153 515151 522150
      525145 532136
 0.50 491214 492206 491203 488203 481206 476208 470211 463213
      461215 460220 462223 465225 472224 478221 483219 487218
      490216 491214
 0.50 480064 478060 475056 471054 468053 464053 459053 457057
      461059 464060 469062 473064 477066 480064
 0.50 451188 451186 450185 449185 448186 447187 447189 447190
      449190 451188 451188 453186 453185 452186 453186 453186
 0.50 420690 420683 418676 415672 410671 406672 402673 395680
      389688 383696 379705 376710 373713 366714 359720 355724
      350726 342731 336738 335741 334745 336748 340750 345749
      357747 366766 371774 379779 385785 391784 394788 395795
      392798 385804 381812 386812 392810 397802 406798 415781
      417777 415772 411770 407772 404774 400773 398769 399764
      406745 414726 416716 418704 420690
 0.50 294778 293777 292776 291776 291778 292779 294779 294778
 0.50 290862 288860 287860 285862 283865 282867 281870 280873
      282875 284875 286873 287870 288868 290864 290862
 0.50 277809 278807 277805 276804 274803 273803 272803 271806
      271808 272810 273810 275810 276809 277809
 1.00 412706 412701 410697 407689 405680 402678 400681 398688
      395694 388705 385712 383718 379720 375720 369723 366719
      363719 360722 355726 350730 344733 340738 340743 342744
      346745 350744 360736 364731 367728 371729 377725 380728
      377734 374740 373748 370754 370760 371765 376768 382770
      387769 391763 394757 398752 401746 407733 409726 410719
      412706
 1.50 402734 400730 397729 391730 386735 381741 378748 375756
      375758 377761 384762 389756 394750 398744 401737 402734
 1.50 360729 358727 357728 353730 352731 348733 347734 344737
      342739 342740 344742 348741 349739 352737 354736 356734
      358732 360729
 2.00 396735 394733 390735 387739 385742 383745 380750 379755
      384756 387753 390748 393745 395741 396737 396735

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 555061 556055 556047 555031 554015 552000 552992 552985
      550982 550977 547974 542965 539955 536945 534935 531924
      528912 525910 520910 516910 512913 492919 475924 470924
      466926 459927 455929 445930 441932 435933 417938 413939
      409940 404942 398942 390946 379949 370947 362944 354942
      343942 333942 323944 316937 310928 305922 298917 291910
      288904 282894 280890 280885 276875 274873 274869 273862
      272842 276822 276818 279815 285808 292800 297794 302787
      306784 309780 312775 315777 321776 323776 325779 329788
      333793 339793 342790 347792 353791 359790 362791 361794
      359798 360801 365800 368798 373795 377798 367813 362822
      362826 364827 369831 370842 376842 381841 384841 388843
      393842 396840 403835 406827 411819 413816 415814 418816
      430814 433812 435807 437802 441799 444790 448783 451778
      452772 454758 457747 458736 459731 461724 467705 471695
      473690 476686 481675 481670 482663 482661 478658 472654
      459646 457641 454640 450640 444641 434640 423642 414648
      410650 405653 403657 398660 390662 389667 390673 392686
      394699 396712 400722 407726 411728 416725 420722 422718
      424714 427713 427715 426721 424725 414745 411748 408749
      402750 398749 390752 383748 376744 373743 373739 375730
      379721 385701 386698 385696 382691 374685 366686 356690
      347696 340703 327714 315729 311736 308745 307755 306757
      301757 284764 265774 258778 250783 247787 243791 236797
      236803 238808 244814 247817 247822 247833 247837 251838
      254848 254872 255878 254883 256895 256903 257908 258921
      259927 260931 261943
 0.01 261943 261951 264957 268963 263969 259972 255976 253979
      253984 255986 255991 254999 254004 256008 260011 266013
      271016 273019 272021 274024 277025 285024 290024 297026
      311031 319031 323029 325027 330026 336028 350026 365023
      372023 378022 393024 400025 404030 410035 411039 410042
      406049 401052 399053 398057 400061 398064 394068 390071
      387072 386075 386079 384082 383088 386089 387091 389089
      399078 415059 423053 435045 439041 438038 434037 431035
      430032 432031 434029 439026 442024 445027 449032 455035
      451050 447058 442065 438067 434068 431068 422067 417069
      413074 409079 401091 400099 397103 393109 389114 387116
      386120 391120 396121 397124 398129 401130 414129 411136
      409140 407141 400141 395140 394149 398153 402158 405161
      409162 413165 414168 413179 412188 411193 408196 407199
      403202 399206 400213 401218 399223 398225 397230 398236
      402240 405243 404246 399248 396254 392259 394265 401280
      404285 405291 410292 413295 420298 424300 427303 431300
      442296 447293 452292 458290 463286 460280 456275 449264
      453259 457254 464251 470250 492264 498268 504268 509263
      512258 514255 513251 512248 512245 513243 516241 519241
      521237 521229 524220 528213 531206 537190 540182 542172
      549138 551125 551111 553086 554071 554064 555061
 0.01 533045 533040 531037 528034 522031 518031 515033 510033
      505034 492035 479033 473033 469038 465051 462057 464062
      461067 457070 453074 449080 445083 443089 443093 446094
      452096 459098 462094 466090 471086 475083 476081 480082
      483082 487080 492081 498082 501082 505081 508083 514084
      521085 524086 527084 529076 530066 530051 533045
 0.01 487202 487195 487191 485190 480183 475174 472172 467170
      462171 460173 458176 459179 461183 458187 457192 455196
      453199 453203 454208 456210 458210 462208 466208 474206
      481205 487202
 0.01 458657 458654 457653 456655 456658 458659 458657
 0.01 456678 454673 453676 450682 447688 443692 440697 436702
      435705 438706 443702 447697 450692 453687 455680 456678
 0.01 440772 438768 437763 433763 431766 429774 430780 429784
      425791 421797 419800 420804 423805 424803 425799 430794
      432791 433787 434781 435777 438776 440772
 0.25 539162 541151 542140 542122 541113 537108 531108 526109
      517114 511115 504112 500108 498106 495106 489108 485111
      484113 483115 484118 486123 484126 481127 476128 473134
      475140 478144 481151 481155 480158 480161 481164 485169
      488174 492178 495184 497190 501196 506200 510202 515201
      519198 527190 530186 534179 539162
 0.25 540003 539003 540003 540003
 0.25 506234 505231 504228 502225 500222 498220 496218 494218
      495221 496224 497226 499229 500232 503235 506234
 0.25 493217 491213 487213 479211 471213 465216 450219 446219
      442219 436221 428223 426228 425234 424238 423244 423247
      424250 432248 438245 445243 452241 460240 465235 470227
      472223 474221 482221 490220 493217
 0.25 509988 509982 506978 500975 493972 486967 483966 479967
      472971 466966 460969 454975 447976 438977 436973 435966
      437962 435959 427959 420962 415962 411963 406969 401975
      394991 394995 397998 399000 399003 397009 396014 398016
      406014 414014 420018 427023 432021 435019 441014 449013
      458013 463014 467016 472023 480021 484020 486018 490010
      494008 490007 483004 480995 483993 487993 494994 501993
      506991 509988
 0.25 473670 472666 470664 468666 467669 466672 465675 464679
      463683 462686 463688 465686 466684 468681 469678 470676
      472673 473670
 0.25 471158 471155 470155 469153 467153 465152 464151 463151
      463154 463155 464156 465157 467157 468157 469157 470158
      471158
 0.25 462701 462700 461698 460698 459699 458700 458702 457704
      457705 455706 455707 456709 457708 459706 460704 461704
      462701 462701
 0.25 446668 440659 436656 432654 428653 423655 420660 418665
      412673 408677 406682 408686 411690 415695 419697 425695
      429692 437684 440680 442675 446668
 0.25 449114 448113 447112 445113 443113 445116 446116 447116
      448115 449114
 0.25 404783 404775 401770 393766 385761 381757 377755 372754
      366755 363757 363761 365769 368772 372774 381778 385781
      387788 391789 396789 400787 404783 404783
 0.25 372715 372712 372709 367709 360713 350718 348721 346725
      343733 342739 344746 347748 351747 359742 365737 369727
      371718 372715
 0.25 360005 362998 361991 356985 350978 345971 341962 337956
      332954 326955 324958 323963 323973 324978 325984 326987
      322986 315981 310979 309986 308998 308005 311007 314010
      318012 327015 336017 347019 351018 353013 360005
 0.25 301968 300966 299965 299964 297963 296963 294963 293964
      292966 293968 294969 296970 297970 299970 301969 301968
 0.25 275807 275801 272797 268796 264796 261798 258801 258805
      257811 259817 261820 265819 268816 271813 274809 275807
 0.50 538153 537141 535128 530118 527120 525123 521129 518132
      515133 509132 502126 497125 495130 496136 495139 494138
      491134 486131 483130 478131 476134 477138 482146 485159
      489162 493163 497173 502181 507184 512186 518186 521184
      527177 533169 537158 538153
 0.50 471218 470216 468216 467217 467219 467220 469220 471218
 0.50 466222 466221 464220 462219 461219 459220 459221 458222
      457224 458226 460227 461227 463226 464226 465224 465223
      466222
 0.50 475011 473010 471010 471011 471012 473013 475011
 0.50 439665 437663 433661 429663 426666 424670 421673 418677
      419682 423684 426685 431682 433679 436676 438671 439665
      439665
 0.50 459991 460988 459984 456982 451982 447983 433988 425986
      422985 420980 417977 413977 408977 406979 404984 404990
      405998 401008 399014 405010 408009 413009 427016 431016
      434014 440009 451998 459991
 0.50 376767 376765 374763 373765 373767 374768 376767
 0.50 355002 348993 347987 346983 344981 342976 341967 339962
      337960 334959 331960 330962 330970 332977 335982 334991
      331995 324996 322997 320001 327010 340013 347015 351011
      355002
 0.50 270810 270808 269807 268806 267805 265805 263806 262807
      262808 261809 261811 261813 262814 263815 264815 265815
      266814 268813 269812 269811 270810
 1.00 509157 508152 506150 499151 495145 490139 486133 481135
      481139 483142 487149 489152 491152 495152 499154 505157
      509157
 1.00 438002 439000 438997 436996 434996 433997 432997 431997
      429999 427001 427004 427006 429008 430008 432008 434007
      434006 436005 437004 438003 438002
 1.00 414989 412987 410989 412991 414990 414989
 1.00 338971 337969 336967 335967 335969 335971 337972 338971
 1.00 333006 333004 333003 331002 330001 329001 328001 327001
      327003 327004 328005 329006 331007 333006 333006
 1.50 490147 491145 490143 490142 489139 487136 486135 484135
      483135 483138 484139 485141 487143 487144 488146 489147
      490147 490147

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 524147 526129 525122 523117 522112 523106 524091 526059
      527024 527009 528996 528977 528963 527957 527950 527943
      530941 526933 524923 523914 522908 519904 515900 513897
      510895 505893 504887 506881 509876 514868 519860 522855
      520848 510832 509830 507831 504834 497841 486852 472854
      468857 466863 464876 461880 457882 449884 442879 437889
      424904 402905 390906 385904 382904 373904 369902 365902
      347899 342899 338902 334904 329906 321911 316913 311912
      301910 298912 296916 294921 289924 285922 284925 286927
      285930 281932 277933 277939 276947 275952 276957 278961
      280969 284975 287977 288981 293987 298996 303999 309999
      312000 312003 313008 305006 303004 300003 296006 298015
      296016 291015 278014 247997 239994 235994 232997 230001
      231005 238009 254018 270027 289035 295036 299034 306029
      310031 316031 320029 323027 326023 329019 330013 338012
      346009 353006 363005 372001 381998 387998 390002 394010
      397016 398022 401032 399038 397043 388047 386050 386056
      390062 398067 397074 395078 399074 403072 406068 412061
      416058 416052 417045 413047 409049 407051 404051 403047
      404044 406040 408034 407028 404015 403008 403999 407989
      415985 431979 448977 464973 475973 484975 499988 505993
      507995 508998 507001 495017 492021 488025 482032 477040
      475045 475053 468078 468082 466087 464098 459091 456097
      453095 454093 452088 448092 441095 431094 424093 420095
      411098 402102 396108 394110 399111 404112 407115 413122
      414126 413131 412139 408140 400136 398134 398130 400127
      399122 398124 396129 392132 390137 389141
 0.01 389141 387146 386152 384158 382161 377167 374170 370169
      368171 367176 369180 367184 362190 367192 374197 379205
      382211 384214 387213 388208 393208 396210 398215 398218
      396219 393219 386219 385226 387228 389233 392236 402238
      406244 412250 415253 419255 428258 437260 440261 442255
      448249 461244 475240 479238 481236 481232 482229 487229
      491230 500232 502230 503224 505210 511184 517169 522157
      523149 524147
 0.01 480195 480189 479186 474180 470175 467171 464171 461178
      456187 452193 452199 452205 457209 460210 464209 469207
      475204 479197 480195
 0.01 444696 443687 441682 435673 431663 425655 418652 412654
      408657 399660 391666 386668 384671 382672 373678 361691
      357694 355698 348705 344712 342717 337720 333723 333727
      338738 342744 347754 348762 350765 356774 358778 360783
      364793 365800 367804 371808 376810 379814 383814 391812
      399805 403802 405797 415781 419773 421768 422761 423756
      421752 419747 417743 432711 436708 439702 444696
 0.01 434136 436130 436124 434121 427135 421150 419158 417163
      415163 404170 399172 395177 393180 395183 402185 409184
      413179 416172 420166 422163 423159 426160 428158 431149
      433145 430142 433141 434137 434136
 0.01 343180 344175 343173 343169 341167 337167 334166 331164
      329163 327165 327166 330167 334168 335170 339171 340173
      341177 343180 343180
 0.25 506172 507159 506151 502136 496132 489131 482129 475128
      469131 466137 466143 467147 470153 472160 476167 479172
      483178 491188 494195 498197 500195 502191 502187 504176
      506172
 0.25 507854 506851 504855 500862 499865 496868 492870 489868
      484864 479865 477868 476874 476882 469886 466888 465893
      460898 452900 446902 444905 443910 441918 437923 434924
      429924 422923 415924 407928 401930 393930 387931 380934
      373937 366939 358937 350935 336932 329931 323929 315926
      310926 298936 292949 291957 290962 292965 297971 301976
      306981 314983 321986 327989 331990 335989 341987 353981
      361978 367980 380984 385988 392989 400987 406984 418975
      428968 434965 440963 449964 456960 462956 465954 467951
      469949 473948 480948 487945 491941 495933 496924 496917
      498912 497908 493906 503875 507854
 0.25 485884 483884 481883 480883 478884 478885 480885 481885
      483885 485884 485884
 0.25 443225 439223 435225 432225 427225 423227 422231 423234
      426238 431239 435238 436233 437231 439226 443225
 0.25 418228 419223 419218 419215 418212 414212 413214 412216
      410221 410225 410229 412231 414231 417230 418228
 0.25 397768 396766 396765 394765 392764 391764 390764 388763
      386763 385763 384762 383761 382763 383764 384765 384768
      385770 387772 389773 391772 393772 394771 396770 397768
 0.25 385191 386189 386187 386186 385184 384183 383182 381182
      379183 379184 378185 378187 378188 379190 380191 381191
      383192 385191 385191
 0.25 361729 360727 359725 358725 356724 354724 353724 352724
      351726 352728 353730 354730 355732 356732 358734 360735
      360734 361731 361730 361729
 0.50 489149 489144 488142 487138 485136 482134 479134 477135
      477138 478141 480144 481145 484148 486151 489149
 0.50 479917 480906 478899 475897 474894 471893 468895 467898
      467904 467908 466910 463912 460911 450907 448909 447914
      446920 448928 454928 457928 457933 456940 456945 459945
      462942 469931 473927 477922 479917
 0.50 447942 445937 441937 438940 433941 429939 426934 421935
      418938 417942 415945 408942 403941 398943 389941 383942
      379944 376947 373952 371956 370959 371963 375970 391979
      397980 403980 410976 414974 418971 424964 424956 427952
      435949 445949 447942
 0.50 359963 360958 359954 356947 345943 338940 330940 321939
      316938 309939 305940 303942 300949 300954 303956 308958
      313962 323969 335975 341976 344969 351968 357965 359963
 1.00 472910 472907 471907 470908 470910 470912 470915 471915
      471912 472910 472910
 1.00 402956 402954 402952 400951 399952 398953 397954 397956
      397959 398960 400960 401959 402957 402956
 1.00 390959 390956 389954 388954 386954 384955 382955 380956
      379958 380961 381961 382961 384961 386962 387961 388961
      389959 390959
 1.00 336954 336953 335952 334951 332950 330950 328951 327952
      325954 325956 325958 325960 325962 326964 328964 330963
      331962 332962 334960 335958 336956 336955 336954

$$





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