Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211845
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 22/0000 UTC THRU SEP 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND OFFSHORE ISLANDS

CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO JOSE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATEST NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST OR MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.   THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM JOSE WILL
PRIMARILY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS FROM IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD---SOUTHWARD TO THE OFFSHORE ISLAND OF MVY AND ACK.
ADDITIONAL 1"+ TOTALS POSSIBLE FOR MVY AND ACK---WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS NORTHWARD INTO CAPE COD.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF JOSE

GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING---WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OREGON/IDAHO BORDER REGION. STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A RATHER
BROAD REGION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH EARLY SEASON HEAVY
SNOWS LIKELY FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST WYOMING.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION

TO THE EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT BASIN CLOSED
LOW---STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS PW VALUES ALONG
THE FRONT AND INCREASING OVERRUNNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES FROM MN INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
WI AND THE U.P. OF MI.  DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY---THIS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS FARTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS---SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO ND AND NORTHERN MN.   CONFIDENCE
IS OVERALL LOW ACROSS ALL OF THESE AREAS AS THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS AMONG
THE MODELS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TOTALS DEPICTED THIS
PERIOD---WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTION
MAXIMIZES.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.  WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES AND JOSE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES---WEAK TROFFING WILL PERSIST
FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST---INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED---WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION
MAXIMIZES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 538175 536164 536156 537148 538142 536136 535132 533130
      531125 529123 524123 520122 517124 512122 504123 497118
      495114 495109 500088 500082 502079 503066 503060 505055
      507047 511038 513025 514014 515001 511993 507985 504982
      502978 501965 499946 499942 501937 501925 507919 510913
      515905 517897 519884 519873 515866 512864 508863 507855
      507848 506842 505837 502837 499839 494838 491836 486831
      479829 472830 466833 462834 460837 458839 456838 454833
      451827 450824 446822 444819 439818 435818 432820 430823
      425824 421825 418827 413828 410831 407831 405829 401830
      396835 393842 390847 389851 387859 387863 389868 393874
      395876 397874 400868 405864 407862 412861 417861 420858
      425851 427848 428846 430848 431860 432870 433874 437878
      441884 444888 444891 437909 436918 436927 442945 447959
      452978 438983 430987 424992 441993 444991 449991 453991
      457993 460994 462997 460005 458014 457025 457035 461042
      466048 469053 469060 455065 446065 442067 438069 436076
      435080 432082 413096 407093 403098 398103 393106 378114
      374118 371127 371132 370136 369142 371145 374149 375152
      376157 375164 375168 376173 380179 386184 387187 387191
      381189 378187 373185 368185 372190 374193 378196 385201
      390202 394205 397206 400206 400201 398197 394190 394184
      396181 402181 405179 412177 417172 419167 420162 424155
      427156 427158 426165 427170 429170 436168 442174 447175
      449178 453176 455174 459167 464158 469150 476147 481145
      485144 490146 497148 505153 510158 519171 525176 529179
      535178 538175
 0.01 457222 453219 450215 447211 445205 441201 435200 429198
      423198 420201 414200 413202 416206 420209 425213 425219
      428223 431227 437229 446228 455224 457222
 0.01 436688 435679 433673 427664 420656 414650 404646 399647
      394650 385657 381660 379663 373673 366680 365684 364691
      369700 373724 376730 381732 391730 397731 403730 409723
      428713 431708 432702 434697 435691 436688
 0.01 446860 446858 446855 444853 444851 444848 442846 441849
      441851 441853 441856 443858 443860 445863 446860
 0.01 421065 421058 420059 417060 414064 412066 410068 407068
      404069 400067 395061 392058 390057 388058 384058 384065
      385068 385072 380064 375059 370058 366060 365064 368066
      375082 379083 382086 387091 399083 404081 406079 411075
      421065
 0.01 379024 379017 376014 372014 368017 360021 352024 335031
      327035 322041 317049 310056 305059 301061 295062 289061
      285059 279058 275056 266052 260048 242040 238038 233039
      231041 228045 227052 227058 229063 231065 238070 245075
      251082 255084 259084 269084 275084 279083 284082 287079
      294073 300070 308066 317063 325059 340052 357043 369034
      375028 379024
 0.01 369903 369896 365894 351894 346895 342897 337899 333895
      331893 332889 333884 336878 337872 339867 339861 344853
      356835 360825 359821 356823 353826 349831 346836 343836
      338833 337830 337827 336813 342803 345800 348794 351784
      345779 341781 339786 331791 327800 321808 319814 319820
      318834 317845 314856 310860 305861 303874 303886 303894
      302901 299905 299908 301914 304920 307922 313922 317922
      321918 326915 330914 337913 344913 354916 360918 369903
 0.01 309850 309846 309841 308837 306835 304835 301835 299836
      297838 297842 297847 298851 300853 300857 302857 304857
      306854 307852 309850
 0.01 301808 298802 292800 286798 281795 275793 267792 261792
      255795 247804 248809 249814 249822 250826 252829 256832
      264831 265829 268829 274831 280832 289831 293830 295828
      293822 296817 300812 301808
 0.01 302992 303985 301981 297975 290968 283964 277959 270955
      260953 257954 257960 255964 251962 243961 239962 236966
      232973 232976 236978 244981 254983 263982 272979 280983
      287987 293993 295996 299996 302992
 0.25 523157 522155 521154 522152 521150 519149 518148 516148
      514149 514150 516152 517153 517154 519155 520156 520157
      522158 523157
 0.25 493023 493013 490003 489999 486997 481999 477005 473012
      470021 470027 472030 479033 487034 492028 493023
 0.25 494921 492910 492901 490891 489881 487870 484861 479855
      477852 473851 468851 465854 463859 462864 462874 464883
      459890 452894 447899 444906 444919 445930 447942 449951
      452959 454963 457966 458955 461945 465938 467934 468929
      469920 469914 471910 474910 478911 482919 482926 482939
      481951 481958 481962 484971 487977 490976 491971 492957
      492947 492934 493927 494921
 0.25 484095 485087 485083 482078 478076 470076 463078 454079
      451081 447084 441087 433090 428087 425088 425091 425099
      423103 422109 419112 416111 414108 411103 408103 402109
      398116 395119 392120 386125 379131 381135 386136 394135
      401131 402142 398160 402163 405161 411155 420141 427137
      431137 432140 432147 433151 438158 441161 445163 449162
      453160 457153 461146 467137 473132 478126 479119 484095
 0.25 440217 438216 437218 438221 440219 440217
 0.25 428693 428686 426679 423670 419662 413658 409657 404658
      401659 398663 394670 390676 380688 377698 377707 378713
      381718 385722 389724 392725 399721 405716 409714 412713
      419711 424705 427698 428693
 0.25 271073 270069 267067 262063 256059 250055 245051 238047
      235050 235055 239060 244065 249069 255073 263076 268076
      271073 271073
 0.25 268816 268812 266810 264809 262807 260806 256806 252807
      252810 253812 255814 257816 260817 263818 264819 268818
      268816
 0.50 477106 478100 479092 477087 475084 471082 467082 459083
      452085 446089 438091 435093 431093 428092 427095 429104
      431108 434111 441115 443119 444125 442137 440141 441144
      444142 447143 455139 460134 470123 474114 477106
 0.50 481022 482019 481019 480019 479019 478021 478022 479023
      481022 481022
 0.50 462908 461905 458904 451905 448910 448917 449925 450933
      452940 456937 459930 460923 460915 462908
 0.50 423684 421676 419670 415665 410663 407664 405666 402671
      395681 387689 383695 381699 381704 382709 385715 389720
      392720 395719 407712 419707 422694 423684
 0.50 429123 429117 425117 422119 417120 412117 408116 407121
      409124 413127 416130 421131 424129 426127 429123
 1.00 468100 469093 466091 461091 455091 452093 450097 450101
      451105 454109 458111 462113 465109 467105 468100
 1.00 417693 417687 416681 414678 411676 406677 401683 397690
      393697 390704 392709 394710 403709 410706 414704 416700
      417693
 1.50 412697 412694 410694 409695 408697 408698 409698 410700
      411700 411699 412697 412697

$$





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