Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 020614
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...OH VALLEY/EAST COAST INTO THE GULF COAST...

SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPR TROF FROM THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL
MAINTAIN UNSETTLE CONDS ACRS THIS AREA WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACRS ERN NC GIVEN PROXIMITY OF DEEP MSTR
PLUME NEAR THE EAST COAST.  DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW PATRN WILL GIVE
POTNL FOR SOME TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND.  USED A FAIRLY BROAD BLEND OF CONTINUITY ALONG
WITH LATEST GLOBAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE GIVEN REASONABLY CLOSE MASS
FIELD FORECASTS.  BROAD 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
ERN PORTIONS OF SC/NC WITH SOME 1 INCH AMOUNTS AS FAR NORTH AS
COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER ALREADY
SATURATED CONDS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS COULD LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF
ISSUES.

...SW U.S...

LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATRN IN THE WEST WITH MONSOON MSTR
CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD AROUND WRN PORTION OF MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES.  AT THE SAME TIME..MODELS SHOW MID/UPR CIRC LIFTING
NWD ACRS NRN BAJA INTO SRN CA BY SUN MRNG.  PWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HI ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO SRN AZ AND THE COMBINATION
OF THIS HIGH MSTR...DAYTIME HEATING..AND IMPULSES LIFTING NWWD
BETWEEN THE UPR LOW AND ROCKIES RIDGE..EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHWERS/TSTMS TO DVLP DURING PEAK HEATING AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION
OF WRN NM..AZ..AND SRN CA..WITH WIDELY SCTD STORMS FARTHER N INTO
THE CNTL GT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES.  THE GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO
FEEDBACK ISSUES..BUT PATRN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.  MODEL
SPREAD WAS RATHER HIGH WITH QPF DETAILS..AND THUS TOOK MORE OF AN
ENSEMBLE APCH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF PLACEMENT/TIMING.

...PAC NW INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY...

GENERALLY LIGHT AREAL AVG QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THIS
REGION AS A RESULT OF GENL WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MSTR.
IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE PAC NW WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS WHILE SCTD STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK WAA AHEAD OF WEAK PAC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACRS THE NRN PLAINS UPR MS VALLEY.

SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 466622 468636 469644 469651 473654 478656 486662 485679
      483693 483697 482700 480706 474718 470727 466738 464745
      463753 457763 446784 444791 441796 436809 431833 415847
      402866 399870 393872 380868 377866 371867 367866 364861
      362856 361847 360838 356841 345861 343868 340872 338879
      336887 336891 335898 332908 332915 330921 327926 324932
      318933 311933 306936 302940 287958 285962 281962 274958
      270954 268949 266947 266943 266934 269922 275911 281903
      289894 294887 294881 296878 296874 295866 295862 293859
      292851 289846 281840 276836 271835 258832 249829 238812
      238808 241802 245792 249788 253785 261784 266786 273785
      280782 285780 290776 302762 310754 314751 319747 339735
      349729 354726 360721 374709 383702 391693 398686 405677
      413667 417662 420656 423650 427644 430639 435632
 0.01 553906 554898 552891 542888 545875 547866 547857 545854
      542852 540850 537850 531851 523856 518860 517856 517850
      513840 509838 506838 505840 502841 500838 497832 494829
      492827 489828 484836 478846 473855 468868 460888 455900
      452913 452928 457939 460952 464967 469972 473986 476991
      477999 477007 478014 483023 484025 487026 492024 508009
      511999 515987 520973 525963 535942 547920 550914 553906
 0.01 534179 536173 536167 533159 529151 524143 510130 507125
      505120 503115 503107 502101 502098 504097 508101 510105
      515113 521120 524126 527129 530135 534136 537134 538125
      540105 540099 539094 538090 535085 532085 530081 525073
      522068 519064 514056 505038 502034 497033 492042 488052
      487057 487065 486073 484079 483086 482090 484092 487096
      490101 487103 485102 482097 474096 467097 458095 454093
      450090 443085 439083 434085 433088 436091 436095 437101
      439105 442108 445113 446119 447128 446132 444134 439136
      437140 435145 435149 436154 438159 441163 438169 430173
      427172 425174 423176 421175 420168 421157 418154 416150
      409145 398142 391136 386133 385129 387126 388123 385118
      381116 375115 372110 370103 372094 374092 376094 380095
      382082 390077 394076 397071 402056 399055 395052 389047
      382041 378039 373040 365043 359043 355045 338051 335051
      333049 329046 324040 312024 311019 307015 304012 301006
      295002 287000 280998 272994 267993 264990 260988 255989
      251990 248993 245996 245003 251022 255031 261040 258042
      254043 250041 247041 238043 232050 231053 233057 237062
      242068 250072 265081 273087 276090 281091 290095 296102
      303109 307116 310121 307124 303127 301132 298145 298148
      299150 302154 306169 309171 314173 319174 324174 360175
      360179 361179 363182 365182 369185 375187 380188 384187
      387187 391183 399178 407177 412175 418175 421176 422181
      423186 427194 432198 439203 446209 449208 452203 457194
      460190 463186 470182 475176 477170 476166 473161 472156
      471150 474145 478142 481143 484149 484155 484171 487176
      484181 484184 486184 493182 495183 495187 495193 494195
      490197 474202 458209 452213 443214 439214 439219 439224
      443223 451219 459216 479212 487212 497213
 0.01 497213 499211 500204 502199 503196 505193 508191 512189
      517190 520189 524187 526185 530184 533182 534179
 0.01 438978 436971 434968 431964 428957 426949 424940 421931
      419924 417921 414923 410929 407936 400949 399960 403968
      404970 407973 414976 417989 429983 436983 438978
 0.25 512155 512154 512152 511151 509149 508148 506147 505147
      503147 504149 505150 506151 507153 508154 509154 510155
      512155 512155
 0.25 457645 456640 451638 444641 439645 423664 417672 410682
      403692 395701 387708 377716 367723 357731 341745 333754
      327765 318786 312796 310801 312809 314818 318821 325821
      330820 335816 344806 350800 359790 365781 373772 381764
      389756 395754 401753 406752 411746 417738 422727 427722
      431720 436715 438709 442697 444683 455658 457652 457645
 0.25 459178 460175 460174 458173 456174 456175 455177 456178
      456179 457180 459178 459178
 0.25 429786 428779 423777 417778 411781 400786 391793 388797
      384802 384806 386808 391812 396813 400817 407817 415808
      422799 426794 429788 429786
 0.25 405831 406829 405827 405824 404824 404825 403825 401827
      400827 399829 399830 398832 398833 398835 398836 399837
      400837 402837 402836 403836 404834 405833 405831
 0.25 378055 378051 376048 374047 371046 367047 365047 361048
      360050 359054 361056 362056 365056 368056 370057 373058
      375057 378055
 0.25 374069 374066 374064 373062 371060 370060 368061 367061
      366063 367066 368066 369068 370068 371069 373069 374069
 0.25 364130 364126 361123 356115 352106 348094 341077 339073
      335070 326065 318061 310056 295044 289041 286045 285050
      281052 276050 270050 267053 260057 249056 247057 245059
      249062 257067 264072 271078 275081 279082 292084 300086
      304090 307094 310102 313107 317111 321117 326125 328130
      328137 326143 323147 316151 314156 314162 318166 321167
      325165 329159 331156 334155 342151 345151 350151 353148
      357142 361136 364130
 0.25 315913 313904 311900 308897 304897 300898 295904 290910
      284918 280925 282929 286931 290931 294930 299929 303928
      310923 313920 315915 315913
 0.25 289022 290018 288014 284008 278005 271005 264003 260003
      263010 263019 265022 268024 274022 277019 281020 287023
      289022
 0.25 285823 279819 274816 269812 266810 264806 262804 259802
      252804 250807 252810 253814 255816 261820 267823 274824
      283823 285823
 0.50 449650 447647 443649 435657 420673 409689 403697 395706
      389712 381719 363732 356737 348744 341751 334761 330768
      326777 319800 320812 323815 328813 344798 350792 356784
      369767 374760 382753 387750 392748 397746 402741 408736
      415729 420718 427710 435690 438678 439673 443667 447658
      449654 449650
 0.50 417792 414792 411793 407792 405792 403792 400794 399796
      399800 402799 404799 408800 411799 413798 416795 417792
 0.50 344140 346116 344104 340090 335081 330078 323076 314069
      304062 300059 295058 279056 273055 270056 270059 273063
      280065 285067 289071 290077 294079 300079 306082 310086
      313091 319100 324103 330107 332111 334118 334124 335132
      336137 337140 342142 344140
 0.50 324161 324158 325156 324155 323155 321156 319157 318157
      317159 318161 319162 320162 322162 324161 324161
 0.50 308916 309911 308909 306907 302906 299907 298910 296912
      295915 295918 296920 299922 301923 303922 306920 308918
      308916
 0.50 282072 280070 280069 278069 277068 275067 273066 271066
      269065 268065 267066 267067 269068 270069 271069 273070
      274071 276072 278072 280073 282072 282072
 1.00 418702 418698 415696 412696 410698 404702 400709 394720
      389725 383731 379734 371738 357743 351747 346752 338764
      332776 327790 326797 329804 332805 334803 339797 347787
      355775 361764 365758 369752 379743 385739 389738 392736
      397731 399728 403727 408723 411720 413715 416710 418705
      418702
 1.00 308072 307072 306070 304070 304072 305072 307073 308072
 1.00 302068 300067 300069 302068 302068
 1.50 362751 359748 354751 348758 342766 336776 332785 330794
      333798 337796 343788 348779 353771 359761 362751
 2.00 347769 344770 342772 341774 339776 337779 336782 336784
      338786 341784 342781 343779 344775 346772 347769

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.