Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 23/1200 UTC THRU NOV 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE ELONGATED EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SEPARATE INTO TWO
COMPONENTS TODAY AS STRONG UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER SOUTHERN AK
HELP PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED
TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE PACIFIC...AND IN
GENERAL THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. SO WHILE INTEGRATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH DAY 1...INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
STILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRETTY
FAR INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SO EVEN PARTS OF ID AND
WESTERN MT WILL SEE DECENT TOTALS.

MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. WPC QPF
LEANED TOWARDS A HIGH RES MODEL MEAN...RESULTING IN 1-2" ACROSS
THE OR/WA CASCADES...AND 0.75-1.5" ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN GENERAL THIS IS A MODEST INCREASE IN
AMOUNTS OVER OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...FLORIDA INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S....WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACROSS FL. ONE OR MORE WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTIONS
WILL ALSO PUSH EAST NEAR FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AS A STRENGTHENING JET TO THE
NORTH PUTS FL IN THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. PWAT VALUES
ACROSS FL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
90TH PERCENTILE TODAY. THUS DO HAVE SOME PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HAVE A BOUNDARY SETUP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL...WITH MORE STABLE OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AND MORE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO ITS SOUTH. LACK A
FOCUS MECHANISM WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WHILE WE SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...AREAL
COVERAGE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
MORE FOCUSED AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP RIGHT NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE WE HAVE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
POCKETS OF 2-4" OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN THIS AXIS.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THINK THE 0Z GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS
QPF AXIS...AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS TOO SLOW AND TOO CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. EVEN THE HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW SPREAD...WITH THE NAM NEST AND ARW2 FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ARW AND NMMB. WPC USED A BLEND OF THESE HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH DID LEAN TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH ARW
SOLUTION GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE INSTABILITY...WITH RECENT HRRR
RUNS ALSO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHWARD AXIS.


CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 504313 501309 499303 494295 490286 485277 479272 475268
      470267 455266 435264 430263 426264 416261 406257 401256
      398253 385244 387237 390233 398227 400225 400222 399216
      396212 393206 396205 401206 404208 406213 411215 414213
      415207 412203 412201 415201 419200 422197 423192 422187
      422180 423159 427151 433145 434139 434136 438135 440132
      443127 444120 441116 438114 427122 425124 423127 423131
      424136 423143 420142 418137 419126 420119 416117 412118
      409115 405109 409108 411112 417113 420112 421109 420107
      421104 424103 428101 423091 423087 426086 433091 435093
      437091 444088 447086 447082 443072 441068 444064 447058
      446053 450046 453044 457042 462044 466053 469063 471073
      470076 468077 465083 465087 467088 469088 478089 482095
      475109 476114 479117 487123 493130 497134 502135 510139
      517145 522151 528159 533165 535168 535174 538180 539186
      543195 536224 531222 528220 525216 521213 518212 516214
      513218 516224 518228 520233 521238 522242 523248 524254
      525255
 0.01 538947 538936 537926 535917 534907 532872 531864 530858
      529849 527841 523831 517824 513819 510813 504801 500791
      492782 486778 476775 481766 483761 485758 493746 497742
      502742 502729 504721 504714 502697 500695 495696 485699
      476707 473705 471703 475697 477694 474693 471693 466696
      461701 456702 453706 450709 448714 446719 447728 448735
      443738 440738 437741 433747 434758 434763 434766 434770
      436772 438774 439771 442765 446756 450747 451732 452730
      455730 457727 462719 466718 468720 469725 467728 461740
      459751 457764 449783 447788 445794 445802 441807 438811
      437815 438816 446815 449815 451816 453822 455830 456836
      454842 449848 450855 451858 454858 457855 459849 461837
      462829 465822 467819 468816 469819 468826 464839 465854
      464861 465863 468862 472863 474868 476878 477895 477905
      475914 476922 480920 482915 482906 484899 486898 487899
      491909 494922 498934 501939 503944 505952 505964 505985
      507998 509005 510009 511009 515009 518005 522995 525991
      527984 529978 533973 536960 537950 538947
 0.01 476199 476197 475192 473189 472187 468187 466187 464189
      463191 461195 460200 462203 464205 468205 470204 472202
      473201 476199
 0.01 431788 431783 429781 427781 426784 426786 424789 424794
      423796 422801 422803 422806 426806 426803 427800 428796
      429793 431790 431788
 0.01 352720 351711 346709 341709 335710 328710 324710 312712
      295726 291727 286731 279736 272746 270752 269757 268769
      268775 265778 255784 251787 248791 248797 243800 237802
      235804 233817 233831 236856 238864 240870 242876 245879
      253883 259883 263881 272874 275870 279867 293854 298851
      302847 309840 315832 320825 323819 325813 327807 330803
      334794 338784 339777 341771 344760 350740 352734 352729
      351722 352720
 0.25 533209 534206 533203 532202 531200 530199 529198 528199
      527201 527204 528207 529210 530210 531210 532209 533209
 0.25 518268 519262 518256 515247 511238 509230 502212 500204
      499199 496196 482202 476205 473206 471209 467210 462208
      461206 459206 459210 458212 454213 448214 430214 430211
      427207 423206 421209 425213 424216 418221 408231 404233
      403235 403238 404241 407244 423248 439244 451246 461247
      465248 470249 477254 482259 494272 500279 502281 506282
      510280 514275 518268
 0.25 520183 521167 518160 515155 511149 506145 495140 491134
      486130 481125 475125 472123 468122 464126 456131 452132
      450136 451142 447145 443145 439144 437147 435151 435155
      438161 442164 446166 448169 449175 444186 445190 447192
      452192 456186 460184 470175 474172 476170 479170 485175
      488175 491178 499188 511186 520183
 0.25 530941 530934 530928 528918 527906 525897 522888 518882
      512877 506875 503875 500876 498880 499886 507898 511906
      512910 512916 513923 513930 512937 515947 517955 520960
      521960 523957 525952 530941
 0.25 499253 498246 496239 494233 493230 490227 487227 484225
      479223 477224 475227 477230 478230 483234 488236 492241
      495246 498253 499253
 0.25 483145 483143 482142 480142 478142 477142 475144 476145
      478146 480147 481147 483145
 0.25 458232 458229 456227 454227 453228 451229 450229 449231
      447231 448232 450233 452233 454232 455232 457232 458232
 0.25 457108 456101 453095 450094 448096 446099 441096 439096
      438100 440103 439106 436107 437110 443111 446111 447106
      449105 453106 457108
 0.25 435097 434096 433095 432095 431093 429092 428090 427091
      428093 428094 429096 431098 432099 432100 433099 434098
      435097
 0.25 343744 341732 336723 320724 315726 313730 310737 306744
      301750 289762 283768 282771 281775 280780 276784 273787
      270788 262791 257795 253805 248806 246809 243811 240815
      238822 238828 240835 240840 242844 247850 250852 254852
      292844 298843 301840 307835 312828 315822 319813 324806
      328799 331792 334781 335773 340755 343744
 0.25 281811 281807 280805 278801 276800 274801 271804 270806
      269808 268812 271814 273814 277815 280813 281811
 0.50 500269 501263 500259 497254 493247 490241 481235 479232
      475231 469232 466233 464231 460233 448235 445237 447240
      452240 459240 465238 467237 470239 474243 482246 486251
      492264 497269 500269
 0.50 505239 505231 503224 501213 498207 494202 489202 485203
      476207 472209 469211 463211 459214 455214 451215 444215
      439215 435218 431218 426219 422223 424227 429229 436233
      437238 440237 440233 442231 450227 454225 460226 463228
      467227 470226 477220 483222 487224 490224 493228 498238
      502241 505239
 0.50 513173 511166 508162 502160 496159 492156 488157 487159
      485156 483154 479151 474149 471146 464139 460138 458140
      453151 449155 446152 442148 438149 438151 439153 441156
      445161 449163 454165 457162 461159 463159 469167 475164
      480164 483166 487171 492173 494174 497171 507176 513173
 0.50 511157 509151 506148 501148 498146 494142 491137 488133
      484131 480126 476127 471125 470130 470135 470138 472140
      478140 482140 485141 486143 488148 492151 498152 502151
      506153 509158 511157
 0.50 464179 464176 463174 461174 459175 458176 456177 456179
      455182 457183 459183 459182 460182 462181 462180 464179
 0.50 430243 429240 426238 423236 421236 418233 417231 413230
      411232 410235 408237 408239 411241 415243 418244 422245
      425245 427245 430243
 0.50 427208 426208 425208 427209 427208
 0.50 333752 333745 332738 330734 327732 323731 319732 314737
      311746 308754 304759 299764 292771 288777 287785 284792
      284798 285805 286812 285817 282820 276822 271821 268819
      262814 258815 255818 250822 246824 244820 242824 244825
      246830 245833 244838 245843 248847 253847 261846 269842
      275839 285841 293841 299838 304833 309825 312816 314809
      319804 325797 328790 330781 330772 331759 333752
 0.50 272797 273795 272793 271793 269793 267792 266793 264794
      262796 262797 261799 261800 261801 261802 261803 262805
      263806 265805 267804 268802 269802 270800 271799 272798
      272797
 1.00 497223 498216 498210 494208 490206 481207 476210 472214
      469213 464213 462215 458217 456216 453216 450218 447216
      444216 440216 438219 429220 426221 425224 433227 439224
      444226 447226 454223 459222 462223 465220 469220 476218
      481219 487221 489221 493222 496225 497223
 1.00 480239 480236 479235 478233 476233 474234 474237 475239
      477240 478241 480239 480239
 1.00 489137 489136 487135 487134 486133 484133 483132 481130
      481132 481133 482134 484135 484136 486137 487138 489137
      489137
 1.00 485161 485160 483159 482160 483162 485162 485161
 1.00 479137 479135 477135 476136 475136 474138 475139 477139
      479137 479137
 1.00 473158 474155 472153 471150 469147 466146 464148 462149
      461153 463154 465154 467155 469157 471160 473158
 1.00 425242 424240 423239 422238 421237 419237 418237 416236
      415236 414238 414239 415240 417241 419241 420242 422243
      424242 425242
 1.00 325766 323753 322746 318742 315747 313752 310762 307767
      305770 299778 292799 289809 289816 287820 285825 282829
      274830 275833 277834 283835 292837 297835 300831 305824
      308812 313804 320796 324788 325775 325766
 1.00 263823 262821 259820 257822 256826 255828 254830 253833
      253836 253839 255838 257836 258833 260830 261827 262825
      263823
 1.50 489218 489215 488210 486209 483208 481209 479211 477214
      475214 477215 480217 483217 485216 488218 489218
 1.50 479238 478236 477235 477238 479238 479238
 1.50 471218 470217 468216 467215 467214 466214 466215 467217
      468218 469219 471218 471218
 1.50 457219 456217 455216 454216 453218 453221 454221 455221
      457219
 1.50 447221 448219 447218 445217 444217 442216 440217 440219
      441221 443221 445221 447221 447221
 1.50 422241 421240 419240 421241 422241
 1.50 324782 323768 322756 320749 317748 315751 315755 309773
      304782 299787 297797 294805 288822 285827 284831 285833
      289834 295832 297829 301821 304818 305813 305807 307804
      311802 315799 319793 323787 324782
 2.00 484212 482211 484212 484212
 2.00 445218 444217 442217 441217 442219 443219 445218
 2.00 322784 321773 321763 319752 317750 316753 314762 313770
      311777 309786 310792 310794 308799 310800 316796 320790
      322784
 2.00 303812 300810 297808 294809 293811 294816 291820 289823
      286827 286831 289831 293830 296826 298822 299819 302814
      303812
 2.00 301800 301799 300798 299797 299798 299799 301800 301800
 2.00 301802 299800 298800 297800 297802 298804 300803 301802
 3.00 321786 321782 320778 319774 317772 316768 315772 315775
      314779 314782 314785 313790 313792 315793 318791 320789
      321786
 3.00 294822 292821 292822 291824 290824 289826 288827 289828
      291827 292826 292825 293824 294822 294822
 4.00 320784 319782 319780 319778 317776 316779 316780 315781
      315783 315785 315787 314787 314790 315791 317790 318789
      319787 320785 320784

$$





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