Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 062043
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 07/0000 UTC THRU JUL 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
VICINITY OF THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE..AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT..AND THE MODEL FORECAST
OF A WEAK S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
POOLING OF PWS TO 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG WITH SHORT TERM CELL
TRAINING..SUGGESTS HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASING TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES EXPECTED.
MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/UKMET/GFS
AMOUNTS.  THIS LED TO A WEST SHIFT IN THE QPF IN THE TX PANHANDLE
VS CONTINUITY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

...WESTERN STATES...

ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING OF THE HEIGHTS AND FLATTENING OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN RIDGE OCCURS THIS PERIOD..SOME OF THE
SAME FEATURES WILL STILL BE IN PLAY..INCLUDING WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ENHANCED
MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
INTO NORTHERN CA/ADJACENT NORTHERN NV. THESE PARAMETERS..ALONG
WITH HEATING AND BANDS OF 700 MB CONVERGENCE..SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE WESTERN
STATES..WITH THE ACTIVITY THRU PARTS OF CO AND NM ADDITIONALLY
ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.    MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED..EXCEPT FOR THOSE PARTS OF NM AND CO WHERE THE
UPSLOPE FLOW COMES INTO PLAY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MORE
ANOMALOUS...AS THE GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES NEAR
2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN NM.  CONSEQUENTLY...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM/12Z UKMET.


...MID ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS FCST TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE..ALONG WITH A SLUG OF HIGHER PW
AIR..NEAR OF ABOVE 2 INCHES..BEING PULLED UP ON ITS EAST
SIDE..SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS THRU MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MODEL QPFS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50+ INCH RANGE WERE FOLLOWED HERE.
FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS
IN THE LEE TROUGH AND IN FL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A 700 MB TROUGH IN NORTHERN FL TO
THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF FCST 1.75-1.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THESE AREAS SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND
UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF QPF.

DAYS 2/3...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED ON A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO FEED CONVECTION WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES... RAISING THE SPECTER FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...THOUGH
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT (AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM QPF). THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND QPF MAXIMUM ON DAY
2...AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THEREFORE...THE
WPC QPF...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 2...WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/UKMET.

DAY 2...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH DAY 2. SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA COAST STREAK EASTWARD IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE FRONT...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT MAINTAINS A FLOW OF 2.00
TO 2.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) OVER THE FRONT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY (MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT). THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED WARM RAIN
PROCESSES BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME
ALONG THE FRONT. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD PRODUCE
AN AXIS OF 2.50 TO 4.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST TX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO.

THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS...WHICH SHOWED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF QPF CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OK.
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 2.50 TO 3.50
INCHES (WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK) ACROSS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AXIS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM DAY
1...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL
RATES...NECESSITATED THE INCLUSION OF A MODERATE RISK AREA
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS...CLOSE TO THE 4.50 INCH QPF MAXIMUM THERE. THE MODERATE RISK
IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA...CENTERED ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRETCHING FROM NORTH TX ACROSS MUCH OF OK
(EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE) INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IL/IN.

DAY 3...
THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER (OR MCS) THAT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTH TX ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE BECOMES ATTACHED TO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN PLACE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO EASTERN OK. WHILE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH...RAINFALL DURING DAY
2 SHOULD DROP THESE VALUES CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...A SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS EXTENDED FROM NORTH EAST ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MO.


...OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED ON A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO FUEL CONVECTION THAT
PRODUCES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAYS 2 AND 3. FOR THE MOST
PART...THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FROM ACROSS WV...PARTICULARLY ON DAY
2. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET...AS
THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC (SINCE THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD A BIT DURING DAY 2).

DAY 2...
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) IS TRANSPORTED ON THE NOSE OF A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST DURING DAY 2. ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE FRONT REMAINS
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE (AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
TO KEEP IT MOVING)...AND THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LINES OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN PLACE...ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS NOT EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE EASTERN OH AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...THE FRONT SLOWS
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SHORT
WAVES RIDING THE MID LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION CLUSTERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH...EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO
1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED IN THIS AREA. ONE AND THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN.
THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
COULD SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING...SO A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED
OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA.

DAY 3...
SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING DAY 3...AS THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE FROM OH
THROUGH WV ACROSS PA INTO NJ. THE AIRMASS IS MORE OR LESS THE SAME
AS DAY 2...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (THOUGH NOT QUITE AS
HIGH ON DAY 2) STRETCHING FROM OH INTO MUCH OF PA AND MARGINAL TO
LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVES SHOULD
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST OH ACROSS WV
INTO SOUTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF OF QPF ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...WITH LOCAL 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AND WV.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ND AND SD DURING DAY 2. ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST CO...BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING DAY 3. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECWMF/GFS.
ON DAY 3...THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE QPF MAXIM
NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ACROSS KS...SO THE WPC QPF ON THIS DAY
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE QPF MAXIMUM
AXES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

DAY 2...
A FRONTAL ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST WY SNAKES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND SD DURING DAY 2. A LOW LEVEL 20 KNOT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR UP AND
OVER THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND
NORTHWEST NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS A
MOISTENING COLUMN WITH TIME. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM MT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH PRODUCES AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND NORTHEAST NE.

DAY 3...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
CO BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION
DURING DAY 3. A SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER CA CROSSES THE FRONT...PROVING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF) THAT
A SMALL MCS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...IS TRANSPORTED UP AND OVER THE FRONT BY A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF
QPF...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE 12Z GEFS OUTPUT HAS A FEW
MEMBERS SHOWING 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE SIGNAL IS
FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
ASSIGNED...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THERE IS BETTER EVIDENCE OF AN
MCS SEEN IN LATER GUIDANCE.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST STATES....

A CLOSED LOW COMES ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA DURING
DAY 2. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OPENING SYSTEM PROVIDES LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CA (THOUGH THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP BY
DAY 3)...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.
THE 12Z NAM WAS ALSO USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA...DUE TO ITS BETTER RESOLUTION.

DAY 2...
DEEPENING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST STATES...AS WELL AS THE ROCKIES. SHORT
WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA PROVIDE LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION
STRETCHING NM ACROSS MUCH OF CO INTO WY. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ALONG THIS
AXIS...RESULTING IN AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS NORTHERN NM...THE ROCKIES OF CO...AS WELL AS THE GRAND
TETONS AND BIG HORN RANGES IN WY. WHILE LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR...THE
LACK OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE KICKER MAKES ORGANIZED FLASH
FLOODING LESS OF A THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...CLOSER TO THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...INSTABILITY IS
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND PORTIONS
OF NV. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN CA REMAIN BETWEEN
1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...AND THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD REMAINS
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIVER OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF QPF IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD CROP
UP IN THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.

DAY 3...
DAY 3 IS ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF DAY 2...WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND PORTIONS OF NM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NV. AS WAS THE CASE ON
DAY 2...LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD OCCUR...BUT AT THIS
POINT...WITHOUT A LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT THREAT...ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAYES

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 539756 539748 538740 537732 535727 529723 525722 520723
      512726 507729 505729 504726 503720 500716 493709 481697
      474693 471691 465691 456694 446698 437702 433704 429704
      424705 420708 417710 414714 411718 408721 404724 398725
      392727 386727 378725 369723 362726 344734 340735 335738
      332740 328744 315759 307771 279794 275796 271795 260796
      253800 248804 247807 249817 252825 255835 262842 270844
      281842 283840 285838 288839 292849 296857 299859 304861
      310862 317855 320853 323851 326852 331852 338852 340852
      342855 342861 344864 344871 348878 350880 349883 347887
      345890 343890 339893 336895 337902 337914 337921 338926
      343949 343954 342958 337966 332974 326981 324984 320986
      309990 302993 295996 287999 283002 280005 277007 273009
      268010 261010 258011 255015 255025 256031 255036 252039
      249039 246038 237035 231035 227037 226044 228054 233060
      237062 242063 249069 264080 278088 292098 306108 309111
      313112 318114 322115 327108 333108 337112 341118 346126
      351132 360137 366139 367142 365148 361150 359153 358160
      361161 366161 369158 373161 375166 373170 370174 366176
      363178 361179 360182 364189 371195 378202 384209 389215
      393219 393222 390225 389231 391235 395240 398242 403243
      412245 422246 427242 437226 441216 442206 438199 431192
      428189 422187 417180 416177 415170 420161 421147 419136
      419133 422132 427132 433134 432142 432149 433153 435157
      438161 442162 445160 454161 473166 489176 500179 508178
      513179 514182 524181 527169 527166 525159 524155 521152
      518148 514146 506142 499136 491131 483126 480124 475124
      472121 472118 471111 470100 466099 463097 458096 456091
      453080 449068 452056
 0.01 452056 454041 455035 452034 442030 437030 433032 425035
      415037 396041 390039 386037 378032 376031 376028 377022
      378008 383999 388990 393982 398973 403965 409957 418940
      423932 426927 429924 442911 455898 470886 484874 490868
      497861 508846 514838 519829 527808 529803 530797 533784
      537770 539756
 0.01 393803 388799 386795 378785 368782 363780 358783 354786
      351791 344801 343807 343812 346813 352814 358812 364810
      369806 372803 378804 390805 393803
 0.25 529774 529772 528773 527775 528776 529774 529774
 0.25 524768 525762 523759 521757 517756 509759 504758 492756
      487754 481750 478745 473745 461753 453761 446773 434780
      426791 423796 419802 408810 398818 393822 385825 380829
      377835 373846 364873 362890 360909 353939 351945 349952
      344965 337976 333980 329985 324988 319992 308998 299005
      289013 285017 281023 280026 281030 286035 290039 294042
      301046 306048 313051 314054 317059 325061 328067 329076
      330084 332089 339099 349091 362089 368090 374094 377095
      380095 385092 389092 391095 394102 393111 394115 396117
      406114 415113 419115 423116 428113 432107 437105 441100
      444099 445095 431073 427072 424068 426060 426055 424051
      418050 411051 395048 384043 378041 370039 366035 365027
      367020 370011 376999 382988 395963 408939 415928 422916
      429905 436892 445881 454874 463868 469863 473860 483852
      493843 502834 506828 511820 518792 520785 522780 524772
      524768
 0.25 477777 478774 476774 473776 467780 462786 457791 453796
      450800 450804 450810 452811 459809 465805 468802 468799
      469793 472784 477778 477777
 0.25 439741 437734 433730 432725 430723 424723 418725 413728
      407739 404743 402750 400765 403771 407774 412771 415769
      416767 419754 431749 436745 439743 439741
 0.25 424222 423217 419218 417213 414211 411211 409210 403205
      396191 391186 382184 377183 373183 370185 369187 371190
      377196 382200 388205 395209 399210 402214 410225 412228
      413232 415234 418233 421225 424222
 0.25 402102 403100 403097 403095 401096 400097 400099 400101
      400104 400106 400107 401106 402104 402103 402102
 0.25 393172 393170 393169 393167 392165 390163 389163 387164
      386166 386168 386170 386173 386174 386175 387176 389177
      391176 392174 393174 393172
 0.25 394151 395146 393142 389137 388133 388127 388118 386115
      382114 379115 376119 375124 376130 379136 385141 387150
      390153 394151
 0.25 358768 358763 354762 351762 349764 344770 342777 338783
      335790 335794 338793 344790 349784 354778 357772 358768
 0.25 328811 326810 324811 323812 324814 325814 326813 328812
      328811
 0.25 320800 320795 318793 312794 305797 298800 291803 287808
      281809 274808 261806 259807 257810 257815 259817 261821
      263823 269825 275826 283827 297826 304823 308820 309815
      311813 315809 319804 320800
 0.25 264066 261062 258059 254057 250055 246054 241052 240055
      241057 244060 248061 252063 256065 260067 264066
 0.50 505795 505787 501786 496788 493791 490794 488798 480804
      475810 467814 466819 467824 475822 485820 493817 498816
      501814 503812 504808 504803 505795
 0.50 491830 490828 487827 482830 473838 464845 456852 446858
      443860 442863 442868 445870 450871 455868 465862 474855
      483847 486843 489838 491830
 0.50 460775 460768 458767 455768 453772 451775 448778 445783
      442786 441791 442794 444795 447792 450789 453784 455781
      458778 460775
 0.50 437811 437808 434808 430810 424812 419811 416812 412815
      404824 403829 403835 404843 400844 397840 392840 385848
      382853 380859 375866 373879 369892 368897 368905 367912
      365919 358938 349958 345968 339977 333984 325991 316996
      309001 306005 304010 302016 302019 319031 324039 329042
      335043 341045 345048 342059 336066 334071 335077 338080
      342083 352081 360078 367078 372080 376080 381078 389071
      396066 399062 400057 398053 393050 383047 374043 362043
      358042 357038 359034 362023 365012 370001 380982 391962
      400945 410926 420906 425897 430887 434877 434872 432869
      428868 401896 402889 400881 400876 402871 405866 408865
      410861 411858 410854 411848 416845 418849 416853 412863
      410866 409868 412870 417866 419862 421856 424852 430844
      436835 437832 434832 435824 437811
 0.50 414837 412837 412838 411839 410840 411842 412840 413840
      414838 414837
 0.50 392197 391197 391195 390192 389190 387190 385189 384189
      383188 382188 381188 380188 379190 378192 379194 381195
      382197 384198 386199 387199 389199 390199 391198 392197
 0.50 291820 289816 284816 279815 275814 270814 266814 266817
      272817 275818 279819 283818 287820 290821 291820
 1.00 406922 406915 404912 401913 398916 392922 388922 385920
      385912 385906 383903 378900 374907 370927 368936 365945
      360951 355956 346970 342977 337984 326995 316005 316009
      319012 323019 327026 334031 341033 347033 350032 355027
      359020 363011 366003 374987 381972 389958 397943 402932
      406922
 1.00 388872 388870 388868 388865 387865 386867 385868 384870
      384871 384872 384873 385875 384876 384877 384878 386877
      387874 388872 388872
 1.00 379051 378050 376049 374049 372049 370049 369050 367050
      367051 365052 364052 363053 362054 363055 365055 366055
      368055 368054 370054 372054 374054 376053 377053 379051
 1.50 402919 401917 399919 395924 391929 386933 379931 375936
      373941 370949 368956 364963 361965 359963 355961 340982
      331991 327996 326999 325003 327010 329013 329015 328019
      330022 334023 335025 340028 347028 352025 356020 360014
      362007 368994 380970 388957 394945 396938 398930 402919
 1.50 377925 377922 377920 377919 377920 377922 377925 377925
 2.00 393940 394936 392934 388938 383941 377942 368963 362973
      358974 352972 337988 333991 330996 330000 333004 339024
      346024 350021 357014 361002 366992 377971 388952 391946
      393940
 3.00 361989 355990 353992 353987 350982 343987 338991 338996
      340000 342000 346998 348997 348002 347005 348009 353007
      353001 353998 355996 360992 361989

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 555834 555826 555818 551805 542805 538804 535807 529812
      524820 520829 516838 513849 509862 506872 503884 500893
      495904 487924 479942 469962 460978 456984 452987 447987
      442987 437986 434985 433989 431993 427995 422998 421002
      413008 406016 404019 402025 400031 394031 389031 384029
      373027 362027 355027 352028 344032 335032 330031 329028
      330025 334017 340009 348005 354002 359996 371982 384965
      388963 391959 396950 402943 406933 409924 411910 413890
      412866 414853 418844 421833 426827 434819 442813 450809
      459803 467799 475793 482788 489785 506777 513773 521766
      525762 528756 533745 535724 535717 534712 530701 522677
      520670 517669 509672 506674 503674 500673 494669 494663
      494657 490646 486645 482645 472651 469653 466654 464643
      459641 454643 447649 442652 439657 432664 426671 423676
      420680 411697 391726 385734 377743 360753 355758 350764
      344771 339779 328793 314805 307809 303811 298810 281807
      273805 270803 266804 262803 263801 264798 261800 256800
      248805 244808 245812 247813 249810 252810 253822 268832
      277834 286835 291837 293839 295843 294847 296850 300853
      305854 309851 312843 314838 317834 325820 329811 337804
      344798 348795 353793 359793 361793 361797 360808 360816
      357821 354828 345842 345845 349846 352844 356843 357846
      356849 354852 352857 355861 359862 359867 358877 356892
      355905 353918 350927 348937 344945
 0.01 344945 336956 332960 328965 320975 310982 305986 299989
      288995 278001 272005 267008 262011 258016 248023 240023
      234024 230025 228027 228031 229038 229041 228043 231058
      236068 244076 264090 269093 278097 283099 290098 304096
      311096 315095 319096 330102 335106 338111 342116 347121
      352126 356129 358128 363127 368124 370124 370120 367119
      363117 357115 353110 350103 349101 348095 349092 353091
      357092 360094 363099 367102 374102 381099 388100 391102
      391107 386109 379112 374118 372127 373135 378141 381146
      382149 381155 377166 379170 380173 380177 375180 366180
      359180 359185 381201 385206 392211 404218 407219 408222
      404225 398226 393230 393233 396234 401238 405239 408239
      414239 420236 425231 435223 427197 428191 428187 427183
      427175 425169 422167 421164 421156 424137 428130 430120
      435117 438116 441120 439130 436137 433145 432150 432154
      434162 435165 439166 443164 447161 456148 465140 472141
      479143 489152 496154 500155 503153 506153 506149 507143
      505140 498131 493127 487123 482119 478112 474106 472098
      457076 458065 460056 469046 476037 479032 483025 494999
      499995 504987 510975 519963 523958 527952 533942 536936
      539928 544916 547909 549900 551890 552879 553857 555844
      555834
 0.01 306914 307907 306903 304897 302893 300890 296893 295897
      294901 294908 295912 297917 301918 304916 306914
 0.25 545852 546844 544838 542834 538832 533840 529849 521868
      513887 510898 508908 506920 506927 503931 497938 493946
      485964 480973 475979 470986 468989 463992 462997 460004
      460008 461012 464014 467013 471011 474006 477996 484992
      490986 492982 494976 502958 506949 510941 516933 520926
      525918 529907 537890 541880 544869 545852
 0.25 509729 508720 506714 499707 496705 492705 483708 482707
      483703 476696 465696 457702 443718 431734 425742 418750
      410756 408758 407756 408751 409745 407742 401742 396745
      392748 390752 386760 381771 380778 379785 375794 370803
      367814 364825 364840 365849 368862 366874 365886 362901
      360912 356923 353933 349943 344951 338959 325975 319982
      311989 309992 306997 304007 302010 302014 303023 306027
      311025 325014 331007 340002 347997 355992 360985 366976
      372969 380961 386953 392944 397936 400926 402913 400900
      397887 397882 398874 400862 403850 406839 408826 411817
      416808 421799 425793 428790 443776 457764 461763 467764
      476759 494748 499743 503738 509729
 0.25 452102 452097 450095 447091 443087 437083 432081 425081
      421081 421072 418058 415052 411049 406050 399050 392048
      385048 378049 372050 367051 360051 358052 358056 363056
      367068 373072 376076 381075 386077 396085 402087 407086
      411085 412082 418082 422093 430103 442107 452102
 0.25 446143 446141 444140 442140 441142 441144 440146 442148
      443148 444147 445145 446145 446143
 0.25 447075 447072 446072 445070 443068 441068 440069 440070
      439071 439073 441074 443075 444076 446076 447075
 0.25 447043 448036 447029 444019 440012 436009 434009 429011
      426013 421020 419024 419029 421034 424037 431043 434046
      437048 441048 445046 447043
 0.25 417230 418225 418221 417218 415216 413219 413224 412226
      410230 408232 406233 406234 409235 412235 414234 416232
      417230
 0.25 411214 412208 411204 408203 405205 400202 393198 386194
      380190 376191 376194 382199 387203 393208 402211 409214
      411214
 0.25 411110 412106 412101 411098 410094 408093 406093 405098
      404100 404102 403104 403109 403112 407113 409112 411110
 0.25 393170 394168 394165 394164 393163 392162 391162 390162
      389163 388164 387166 387168 387171 388172 389173 389174
      391174 392172 393170 393170
 0.25 397147 397145 396144 395142 393142 392142 391142 390144
      389146 391148 392149 394149 396148 397147
 0.25 384122 383120 381121 380124 380125 381124 382123 384122
 0.25 371057 370056 368055 366056 365056 366058 368058 370057
      371057
 0.25 345081 345079 343076 340074 338073 336073 334075 332077
      332081 334084 335086 335088 339091 341089 343087 344083
      345081
 0.25 337058 336056 334054 332054 330054 329054 327054 326055
      325057 326059 327059 328060 330060 332060 334060 336060
      337058
 0.25 311820 306818 301816 294816 288814 282815 277816 276819
      278821 284823 291824 294826 300830 306830 309826 311820
 0.25 293044 292039 290035 287032 284030 282035 276036 274036
      271036 270038 268042 270047 266049 260048 254042 250038
      246036 241034 238037 235047 235054 236058 238063 240066
      247072 254078 263082 273085 279085 283083 287074 284066
      282062 282055 282045 291046 293044
 0.50 494733 493728 489727 485730 482733 479737 476740 474744
      472750 474751 477749 481746 485743 488739 491737 494733
      494733
 0.50 445099 444099 443096 441094 441093 440093 438093 437095
      437098 438098 439100 441101 443101 444099 445099
 0.50 437751 436745 434744 429748 421760 413772 408778 402781
      398782 395784 389790 381798 376804 373811 371818 369826
      368832 369838 371847 372856 371867 369887 366903 361918
      356932 354939 350945 341958 324978 315989 311995 310999
      310005 310015 312018 315018 320014 325010 331004 337001
      348994 384952 391939 394933 397926 399918 399908 396896
      394889 393880 394869 397853 401838 404818 406810 410804
      414798 417792 424780 433768 436764 436760 437751
 0.50 396205 396203 394200 391199 388198 386196 383194 379194
      382197 384198 387201 389202 391204 394206 396205
 0.50 408107 409105 408103 408102 407103 407105 407107 407108
      408107
 0.50 407072 408070 408068 408065 407064 405063 403063 402063
      400063 398064 397064 396066 395069 395071 396072 397073
      397074 399075 401075 403074 404073 406072 407072
 0.50 392052 390052 388052 390053 392053 392052
 0.50 305823 303822 301821 298820 295820 292819 288819 286821
      288821 292821 294822 296824 299825 302826 303823 305823
 0.50 279078 278073 276069 274064 270060 262055 256047 249042
      246041 244043 243046 242051 239055 242063 249070 258075
      268079 273079 277079 279078
 1.00 393920 393914 393909 391902 386888 384885 382884 378887
      374893 372900 370908 368914 361927 356940 349952 341962
      333971 325981 321986 317992 317997 318001 320003 324004
      335999 341995 345991 355983 359979 362973 370961 378952
      382947 385940 390930 393920
 1.00 387818 387813 385810 382810 380812 378814 377816 377821
      377825 378829 380832 382833 383831 385829 386824 386820
      387818
 1.00 259067 258067 257065 257064 255063 253062 251061 250060
      248060 246060 246061 246062 248063 249064 249065 251066
      252067 253067 255068 256068 258068 259067
 1.50 388924 389916 387909 385904 383902 380902 376905 374910
      369920 358941 353950 346959 339967 332975 326982 322987
      322990 322994 326997 331997 337996 341993 349986 357979
      363970 368960 374951 380942 388924
 2.00 382929 383922 382916 379916 376918 372927 366933 357947
      346961 341967 335974 327990 328993 330994 335994 342990
      349985 355979 360972 364963 368956 372947 377941 380936
      382931 382929
 3.00 363961 364955 362952 357954 352958 348965 344971 344978
      343982 342987 346984 352979 356974 359967 363961
 4.00 360961 359958 357959 355961 353963 351965 350967 350970
      352969 352971 354971 355967 356965 358963 360961

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 432633 431644 428652 419671 417675 418678 421677 424674
      427674 437673 441677 442681 442686 439690 436700 429719
      426724 423729 419738 417742 418747 420754 422758 429778
      432791 433808 435822 435835 434847 435863 435871 434879
      431889 429894 426898 420902 415910 410919 406922 403925
      395929 391930 385930 381931 383935 390942 395943 399947
      405955 409963 419977 439013 447030 450039 453049 455054
      455062 456066 456073 455081 457087 459091 461098 464108
      467119 470129 467139 465142 463148 460159 460174 459188
      457196 455203 451216 448221 444221 436223 429227 426230
      424233 421238 417240 410246 398238 392235 389232 385228
      383225 386223 390223 399221 398216 395214 389212 386209
      380203 374197 357183 347196 346192 349186 352181 355179
      358176 361176 367177 370174 372173 372169 370167 367162
      364159 361155 365153 371149 373146 371143 369139 365137
      361134 362127 361121 367117 375114 373109 370106 364106
      360108 353111 347110 342111 338113 334110 327103 318100
      308098 306098 304100 304105 301108 295107 288102 279097
      275094 271093 256085 247079 241074 234068 231061 228051
      228038 229032 231029 237031 244038 251042 256043 261043
      270043 278042 282044 287044 286039 282035 277028 274019
      278018 283018 305018 326016 335014 343011 347010 351007
      353002 353994 352987 351980 350974 351967 352954 353950
      353943 356939 359934 364927 368922 368914 374895 370889
      372884 373880 372878 371873 371867 372856 373830 376809
      379799 378793 375790 372786 369782 362776 358772 356768
      355755 357750 359745 363737
 0.01 363737 368732 371727 373724 376719 377712 378703 379695
      381686 382676 385670 388663 391657 395650 397644
 0.01 505890 505881 501878 497877 492878 489883 487888 483899
      479909 475922 472935 472942 470949 469964 468981 467984
      467988 466996 466005 466009 468011 471010 474007 477002
      479997 482985 484979 485969 487955 489942 492927 496916
      504893 505890
 0.01 334795 334787 331787 329789 326792 323798 317807 312810
      304812 299811 293812 287814 279814 267811 262810 255811
      251814 248815 249811 256803 251803 247808 245812 249816
      250820 251822 256825 267827 281827 287829 282831 275833
      269836 262843 258854 255868 255883 258896 260902 260910
      262917 266919 296952 301954 305954 307952 312950 315946
      318941 317935 314928 312923 309918 310909 313898 315892
      318887 322886 324887 327885 329879 328870 328853 327844
      328837 328829 329822 331808 334795
 0.01 256964 256959 254956 252949 248943 243939 237935 233932
      233942 231950 231954 233957 235964 241968 250968 255964
      256964
 0.25 445152 446150 446148 446145 446144 445143 445140 444139
      443137 441136 440137 439137 437138 437139 436141 436143
      436146 437147 437148 438150 439151 440152 441153 443153
      445152 445152
 0.25 447121 447119 447116 447115 445113 443111 442109 440108
      439110 439112 440113 441115 441116 442118 443120 443123
      444125 445123 446122 447121
 0.25 443099 444094 443090 442088 438087 435088 433089 431090
      428090 428093 429096 431098 433099 436101 438100 441100
      443099
 0.25 417218 413209 413198 407176 406165 406158 403153 402148
      401143 397140 393141 389144 391147 393148 397151 397154
      389160 387164 385170 387181 385186 380187 375184 369185
      370189 373193 381198 389204 397210 401212 407215 415215
      417218
 0.25 412231 412226 409226 407227 403227 399227 398227 394228
      393230 395232 398233 402234 405234 408234 410233 412231
 0.25 427843 424819 422809 418797 418783 414773 410765 410758
      410753 410747 409740 408736 405733 400724 398721 395718
      393727 390737 388758 390762 393766 394771 392776 385793
      383802 382813 381823 379834 379853 380858 382860 384866
      386870 389874 390878 390889 389902 390909 392913 394915
      399916 405910 415897 419889 422880 423876 424869 426859
      427849 427843
 0.25 413108 414106 414104 414101 413099 411097 410096 408097
      407098 406099 405100 404102 404103 403104 402106 401106
      401109 401110 403111 405111 407111 408111 410111 411110
      412109 413108
 0.25 405067 405061 402059 399056 398051 396047 392044 387044
      383045 374047 370050 371052 370055 373057 384060 393062
      395066 396071 401072 404070 405067
 0.25 406000 406992 403986 396973 393968 388963 384959 380954
      376952 373953 368958 362970 361974 361979 361989 360994
      362999 363007 365010 368010 376012 392013 398011 404007
      406000
 0.25 401032 401028 398026 395025 393024 390024 386024 384025
      383029 386031 387032 391033 394034 396035 399035 401032
 0.25 382083 383081 384079 384076 384074 383072 382070 381069
      380068 378068 376069 376071 376073 377076 377078 378080
      379082 380083 381084 382083 382083
 0.25 351081 349079 345076 342074 338074 334075 330077 328081
      330085 332088 336091 339091 342088 345085 349083 351081
 0.25 317056 316054 314053 312053 310053 309053 310054 312054
      313056 314056 316057 317056
 0.25 309060 308058 305058 299058 288056 278055 267055 260050
      256049 251047 241049 238050 235053 235058 238061 246066
      259075 274083 291087 301086 304084 307079 305074 302071
      299067 299063 305062 309060
 0.50 406231 404230 403229 401229 399229 398229 399231 401231
      402232 404232 406231
 0.50 406206 407201 406196 403191 400190 397191 395196 390196
      386197 387201 391202 396204 399207 402209 405208 406206
 0.50 421860 422855 421850 420839 419829 417821 411819 407822
      407832 407840 405849 402855 401864 398870 396888 395895
      397902 402903 404901 408896 414883 419869 421860
 0.50 412807 412800 411795 404792 402792 398789 394791 391794
      388798 387803 385813 386820 385826 385829 389828 395823
      402817 408815 411812 412807
 0.50 402753 402751 402748 402746 401744 400743 398744 398747
      398749 398751 399754 399756 400756 401755 401754 402753
 0.50 399995 399990 397986 394984 392979 387971 380967 375966
      371969 370972 368978 370990 373999 374005 378006 385002
      388002 392000 396000 399998 399995
 0.50 376191 374190 374191 376192 376191
 0.50 301078 298073 291072 284064 281062 277063 271063 261058
      256055 252051 248051 247053 243054 241056 244060 249063
      260070 263072 271074 276076 280076 285079 292080 298080
      301078

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.