Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251822
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/0000 UTC THRU JUL 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CNTL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BOWLING BALL LOW ROLLING DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WPC HEAVILY FAVORED THE 12Z HI-RES SUITE OF NAM CONEST,
HARW AND HNMMB OVER THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE ACTION GETS STARTED THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR THE MSP/STP METRO
AREA WSW TO EAST CENTRAL SD, WHILE EMERGING VORTICITY FROM THE
ROCKIES EJECTS AND TRIGGERS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN SD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NE. THE COLD FRONT ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WI/SERN MN INTO SERN SD/NWRN IA BUT BEGIN TO
DECAY BY 12Z. THUS IS DUE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TAKING OVER
AND SLIDING FROM SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE ESE TOWARD EASTERN
NE/WESTERN IA. THUS A WELL ESTABLISHED COMPLEX WILL TRANSITION
DOWNSTREAM AND GRADUALLY FADE BY MIDDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS, THANKS TO HEATING AND INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY, ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MUCH IF IA INTO EASTERN
NE/NERN KS AND NORTHERN MO. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST
SCENARIO HANDLED RATHER WELL BUT ITS QPF PLACEMENT APPEARS TO BE
TOO FAR NORTH AND CAN BE A BIAS DURING THE WARM SEASON. THUS WPC
WENT WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDWEST FROM SERN SD AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN NE INTO SOUTHERN MN/ALL OF IA/SOUTHERN WI AND
EXTREME NORTHERN MO/NERN KS.

...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH...

EXTREMELY PERSISTENT AND LINGERING UPPER SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN MORE
POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN
SC AND SERN/SOUTHERN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLES AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN AL/MS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD RESULT IN AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS FOR TOTALS AND
PLACEMENT.

...SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WED. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY THE MONSOONAL FLOW FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, A MID-LEVEL VORT AND WEAKNESS TRACKING INLAND OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA SHOULD KEEP A BROAD UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
INTACT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE ORGANIZATION FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 526794 525788 523781 519769 516766 512765 503762 490771
      486773 483775 477782 473786 470784 467781 462781 457780
      455785 451796 445816 443824 441834 434857 432869 426878
      421886 418894 412895 409893 405892 402889 400886 396884
      393876 387870 380865 372861 364858 362861 359863 356861
      357855 360852 361847 359845 356848 353849 351847 353842
      357837 358833 362830 373818 379813 385804 390797 393794
      396791 399791 400788 395789 392789 390785 387783 383784
      379787 377791 371798 368800 365804 363807 361809 359807
      356799 348795 348790 348786 351785 356786 358783 359779
      357774 353766 353756 362739 369725 372715 373710 371701
      367692 365687 360688 356687 350688 344690 341693 327708
      324711 321714 313719 306733 305743 301749 294754 292758
      289760 278776 275780 272783 261788 245798 242801 240806
      240813 241820 244824 248825 255830 262834 271834 277832
      283832 288839 288843 286849 282859 277878 281885 285890
      290891 291898 289904 292907 295910 300910 305912 310909
      328909 334911 335909 333906 329904 327902 328899 328897
      327894 325891 328888 328886 326882 327879 336880 339877
      343875 348874 350871 353872 354874 350879 355884 358888
      362890 364891 364895 364899 362901 354899 351899 353903
      358912 362918 366913 371912 376913 386915 390924 392929
      393931 394935 392941 391944 388944 384945 384951 387952
      389954 388957 388962 384964 382968 381975 380981 376985
      373989 371994 366004 363010 361014 362018 363023 367022
      371019 372012 372005 373000 377991 383987 386990 385994
      384998 381999 376001 378004 381002 385005 383008 381010
      383013 384016 383019 379021 377026 374027 371027 367028
      362032 360035 357040 354042 354049 352055 348053 346048
      345043 342044 339047 334048 330046 320043 317041 312040
      307040 304042 302046 306048 304058 301062 298065 286063
      277060 268056
 0.01 268056 248043 244041 239042 235046 233051 233059 235064
      240072 256088 262092 268094 280100 285102 291103 301108
      309115 313117 315116 320111 325109 329105 332104 334105
      338108 342113 345119 344127 352129 353134 353138 352141
      349145 350153 346156 344160 340165 334164 334167 337168
      345169 347161 350159 353160 352166 356169 366178 384191
      388190 391191 392198 396203 401207 404211 406220 411223
      409235 413245 428231 433230 438227 443225 443217 444213
      441208 439202 440196 442182 448181 451180 450177 441180
      438179 437176 436167 429158 426154 427150 430145 434143
      433147 431152 432157 444155 448153 452148 460138 462134
      464126 468112 472108 470100 470092 469088 468087 465092
      460094 458094 458089 458084 456081 449070 445065 443064
      444060 447056 449050 448042 446035 446029 445025 446018
      450003 453991 455983 457977 459968 463962 465958 466952
      468949 468945 472939 475935 478932 480932 480936 481944
      482948 486947 488942 489938 492934 496930 498924 499915
      501911 501905 500895 499875 506867 513858 517853 520847
      522829 520822 521816 523803 526794
 0.01 471063 471060 469058 466057 463056 459055 456055 453056
      453061 453066 455069 457071 458072 460070 462068 464066
      466065 469064 471063
 0.01 451088 450082 446079 442076 437076 431076 427079 423082
      421086 415097 414103 414109 420110 421102 424099 427098
      426094 424089 424086 426086 431088 436088 437085 439085
      444087 451088
 0.01 435124 435121 435119 434117 433118 432121 433123 434125
      435124
 0.01 427760 422744 423739 423735 420735 417738 415740 413738
      411732 406736 403740 398741 389741 385740 382742 377748
      374758 373763 369766 370768 367771 369775 373775 377773
      380770 385769 389769 398767 403765 406768 415767 420760
      422763 424763 427760
 0.01 412134 413132 414129 412127 411129 410129 408129 407129
      405130 404132 403133 402134 403136 404137 406136 408136
      410137 411136 411135 412134
 0.01 373172 373170 372168 370166 369166 367165 366166 365169
      366170 368171 370172 371174 373172
 0.01 375114 376112 376109 376107 375105 373105 372104 370106
      370109 370111 370113 370115 370117 372117 374116 374115
      375114
 0.01 382891 382888 381888 380888 380891 381892 382891
 0.01 362116 362114 363112 363110 363108 363105 363103 361103
      359103 358105 357107 357109 357111 357113 357116 357118
      357120 357122 359121 360120 360118 361117 362116
 0.01 356091 357089 355087 354089 353089 351090 349091 348092
      347093 346094 345095 345096 344098 344100 345103 347101
      349101 350099 351099 352099 354097 354095 354093 355093
      356091
 0.01 344065 342064 341064 339065 340067 342067 344065
 0.01 328094 328092 328091 327090 326088 325087 324086 324085
      323083 322082 321081 320082 320084 319085 318086 319087
      321088 321089 322090 324090 325091 325094 325095 327095
      328094
 0.01 320078 318076 318073 318071 320069 319067 317067 315069
      315071 313073 314075 316077 317078 318079 320078
 0.01 298809 298807 296805 294805 293806 291806 290807 291809
      292809 293811 295811 297810 298809
 0.01 283806 283804 281803 279803 278802 276802 274801 272802
      271804 272804 274804 276805 278805 280806 281807 282807
      283806
 0.01 282827 280826 278826 276827 274827 274828 274829 276830
      277830 278831 280830 280829 282827
 0.25 497850 497846 496842 493837 489834 486828 483819 484811
      483803 481799 476800 469806 462800 458804 457812 457828
      456843 455850 453855 451858 446861 437862 435868 433873
      431877 430883 429890 426895 410910 408915 406914 404908
      401904 396903 393906 392910 393915 399924 400931 399938
      392959 391963 390967 391970 396968 399966 401968 403973
      406976 410989 411004 411008 409012 408015 405020 400023
      399027 401029 405027 409024 411023 413024 418032 414041
      412045 409049 408052 404052 400050 397044 392042 388044
      384048 377048 371046 369043 365040 363044 365050 367052
      373052 378053 379057 378063 372063 369067 367072 371074
      374080 377092 379097 383097 388098 387101 388103 392107
      396108 399105 399098 400094 404091 406086 406080 407078
      410079 412085 414086 416084 420078 425072 433066 435063
      438056 440052 437047 435041 431040 429034 430027 434024
      438020 441007 443001 446996 449985 453973 456959 458947
      461935 466933 468926 465919 465912 464906 461903 458897
      459893 460887 465883 468881 472883 475882 476879 478874
      480869 484866 489863 493859 495854 497850
 0.25 454115 454108 454103 454095 452092 448094 446097 446102
      446109 446116 448121 450122 453117 454115
 0.25 429192 426187 423181 425174 422170 418170 416172 416177
      420182 422188 420195 421202 421205 423203 425198 429192
 0.25 419228 419227 418225 416226 415227 414229 414231 415233
      416233 417232 418230 419229 419228
 0.25 421219 422217 422214 421213 421212 420209 419206 417204
      415204 414205 414207 414210 414211 415212 416215 417218
      417219 418220 418221 419221 420220 421219
 0.25 408150 406148 405144 400141 398137 396135 388134 386131
      384132 381139 377139 375142 372147 375153 376156 374159
      379163 383163 384158 386156 391158 390161 388163 387168
      392172 398171 399168 398166 397162 400161 406159 408152
      408150
 0.25 407107 409105 409103 409101 409098 408097 406098 406099
      406100 406102 406105 407107 407107
 0.25 404750 403749 401750 399751 399752 401752 403751 404750
 0.25 395754 394754 392753 391753 389754 388755 389757 391757
      393756 394755 395754
 0.25 389118 388113 384112 380115 378119 376123 374127 373134
      374136 376135 377132 378127 380121 383119 388119 389118
 0.25 394027 393027 391026 390027 389028 388029 389031 389032
      391032 391031 393029 394027
 0.25 378900 379898 378897 376895 374894 372896 373898 374899
      376900 377900 378900 378900
 0.25 365157 366155 365154 363154 361154 360156 361157 362159
      364159 365157
 0.25 367122 366121 365120 363120 363121 364123 364124 365124
      366123 367122
 0.25 370869 370867 369866 368867 367869 367871 368872 369871
      370869 370869
 0.25 355717 354708 352702 342701 330718 318737 313746 310758
      309765 307770 304781 304789 306795 313803 314806 313809
      311808 306811 303815 302817 303821 299832 297836 298842
      294853 291857 288862 286869 287877 289882 292887 294893
      299895 302896 304895 307892 311892 311888 307882 310877
      315873 315864 317853 321849 327846 330844 332839 335834
      340834 345824 351815 351808 349804 347804 346807 343801
      342797 340795 334795 340775 348754 351741 353730 355717
 0.25 363065 362064 361063 359063 358065 357067 358068 360069
      362067 362066 363065
 0.25 355073 355071 354071 353073 354075 355073
 0.25 355828 356826 354824 352825 351825 350826 349828 349829
      348831 348832 347833 346836 347838 348839 350838 350837
      351836 352835 353833 354830 355830 355828
 0.25 342094 343089 341087 339085 337083 336081 334079 330079
      329081 330084 332087 333089 335091 336094 338096 341096
      342094
 0.25 337056 337054 336053 334053 332053 330054 329054 328055
      327057 328058 330059 332058 333058 334057 336057 337056
 0.25 319093 318092 317090 315089 313088 312088 310087 311088
      312090 313091 314092 315094 316096 317095 318094 319093
 0.25 315107 316105 315105 315103 314101 314099 314097 313095
      311095 309096 307097 306098 306100 307100 308102 309102
      310103 311105 310107 311109 311110 313109 315108 315107
 0.25 306087 306084 303082 297080 281076 275075 269071 258064
      248058 244057 242059 242063 243066 246071 251075 260084
      271090 277093 285093 298092 306087
 0.25 310867 310865 310863 310862 309863 308865 309867 310867
      310867
 0.25 285814 284813 282813 281811 280810 279811 278812 277813
      277815 277817 277818 279818 281817 282817 283817 284815
      285814
 0.25 265800 263799 261802 259803 256805 254807 253809 252812
      255813 257813 260815 261815 263813 264810 264806 263802
      265800
 0.50 483847 481837 480822 480812 478809 476811 471817 468824
      467838 466842 463846 434890 436893 436898 434904 433902
      431900 431895 428895 427900 424904 420905 418907 414908
      412912 412915 412920 408923 405922 403917 398909 394910
      395913 400920 401922 402928 402938 403942 401945 398948
      395952 393961 393966 396964 401961 405967 412982 414986
      414992 416003 417008 418013 423014 425016 423018 419019
      417023 419027 422036 423039 421042 418040 418047 421055
      424058 430058 433059 435057 435054 434050 432045 430044
      429041 429037 428033 426030 421030 421027 426025 430024
      433021 436979 434976 434970 435965 437961 440954 442952
      442959 442966 440971 439976 441980 446984 449982 450976
      452966 455957 456947 457932 457926 455918 453908 452896
      454886 456878 458874 461873 466872 468868 470863 472859
      477857 481855 483850 483847
 0.50 465821 463821 463822 465822 465821
 0.50 441909 441906 442904 441903 441904 441906 441909 441909
 0.50 420216 420214 420212 418212 417213 417215 417216 419217
      420216
 0.50 423067 423062 420063 416062 414059 406055 403056 402062
      399062 398060 400056 400053 397049 393049 390045 388046
      386049 387053 388057 391061 387065 388071 389082 391084
      393088 392098 393101 396100 400091 402088 402084 402079
      405077 408074 412074 414075 415078 414083 417081 418075
      420073 422069 423067
 0.50 388143 389141 388140 386138 385137 384138 384140 383142
      382144 382145 381147 381149 381150 383150 384149 385148
      385147 387145 388143
 0.50 385083 384079 383078 381074 385070 387065 387061 384059
      381060 380065 378066 377064 373064 373065 377069 376073
      377077 379082 382085 385083
 0.50 370050 370048 369046 368043 367042 366043 365045 366048
      367048 368050 369050 370050
 0.50 346727 345723 343722 339722 336723 328736 322741 319746
      314762 311769 310777 309786 310791 313793 321794 324793
      326790 329783 331780 334781 340768 344752 346743 347734
      346727
 0.50 343812 342801 341798 339798 336802 333803 332802 332798
      327795 325797 325801 325807 322810 318813 313812 306812
      303817 304820 304824 302829 300834 301840 299846 300848
      302846 305845 306848 307852 305852 307855 313864 314857
      312852 311848 312845 314841 315838 319840 321841 324840
      328837 331826 331820 337830 341826 342822 343812
 0.50 340093 341091 340090 339090 337090 336091 337092 337093
      338095 340093 340093
 0.50 336086 335086 334084 334083 333084 332084 331086 332086
      333088 335088 336086
 0.50 304890 300886 299882 301878 298870 298859 298853 294857
      291864 291874 291880 292883 294887 298889 302894 304890
 0.50 295088 294083 288082 275081 265078 262073 258069 251064
      247065 249069 257075 265080 273087 277090 282091 291089
      295088
 1.00 454952 455940 455934 454928 451923 449926 448930 447941
      445952 445964 445973 445977 446980 448978 449969 451959
      454952
 1.00 446937 446932 444928 442921 440918 438920 437928 436937
      434945 431951 427950 426947 421931 420923 426919 426915
      424913 420912 413924 408929 405934 404938 405941 405946
      403948 399949 397952 396954 396958 404958 408963 410970
      414972 414975 416984 417992 421999 422008 424010 428010
      431003 433995 433990 431987 427983 424982 422979 422974
      423969 427966 430959 431955 433952 436952 438949 440944
      441942 444941 446937
 1.00 445894 444891 444887 443882 442878 441875 440871 439875
      438878 439880 439882 439885 441889 442892 443894 445894
 1.00 432021 433018 433016 432014 430015 429016 428018 428020
      430022 432021 432021
 1.00 429054 430051 429050 427050 425050 424051 425052 426053
      427054 428054 429054
 1.00 396094 397092 397090 396088 395089 394092 394094 394096
      396095 396094
 1.00 337760 337758 337757 335758 334760 333761 334763 336763
      336762 337761 337760
 1.00 340803 340801 338802 336805 336808 335811 335815 335819
      336823 338823 338821 338817 336815 337812 339809 339806
      340803
 1.00 333763 330761 325762 321765 318767 317771 315775 314781
      318783 321782 325778 327775 329770 331767 333763
 1.00 330805 330802 330800 329800 328801 328803 328805 329806
      330805
 1.00 327835 327833 326832 324833 324836 324837 326836 327835
 1.00 326822 326816 325813 322812 317814 312814 308814 305816
      306825 303833 302838 303840 305840 308842 311839 310833
      307831 311833 315830 317832 321832 322827 326822
 1.50 454932 452932 452935 451937 451940 451942 451945 452947
      453945 453942 453940 453937 454935 454932
 1.50 449969 449966 449964 449961 450959 450957 449954 449953
      448954 448957 447959 447961 447964 447966 447968 447969
      447971 446973 447976 447978 447976 447974 447971 448969
      449969
 1.50 443933 443930 442928 442925 442924 440923 439926 439928
      439930 439933 440935 440936 442935 443933
 1.50 437947 437945 438942 437941 436942 436945 435947 437949
      437947
 1.50 431999 432993 431990 428988 424989 421981 420978 420973
      421963 424958 426955 426953 423946 416934 411930 407936
      408946 406954 409961 412966 416972 415980 421992 423000
      423005 425008 430004 431999
 1.50 323814 321814 319814 318815 319816 321816 323816 323814
 1.50 318823 318821 317819 317817 315816 314815 312815 310815
      308816 307816 307818 308820 309822 310824 311826 313827
      313826 314825 316825 318824 318823
 1.50 309839 309837 308836 306837 307839 308840 309839
 2.00 449961 449959 448961 449962 449961
 2.00 431997 431994 431993 431992 429991 427991 426992 424994
      424997 424999 424001 424004 425006 427006 429004 430002
      430999 431998 431997
 2.00 425954 422947 416942 412936 410935 409938 409942 412944
      414946 416950 416955 416958 414958 411956 410959 414966
      416968 418968 418962 419957 425954
 2.00 420982 419980 419979 417978 417980 417981 418982 419983
      420982
 2.00 316821 316819 315817 314816 312816 310817 310818 310819
      311820 311822 312823 314823 316821
 3.00 429999 430997 429995 427995 427997 426999 426001 427004
      428001 429999 429999

$$





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