Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190707
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 19/1200 UTC THRU FEB 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKIES...

A LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A STEADY/GRADUAL
TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE SWRN US/NWRN MEXICO SUN MORNING TO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASINGLY ELONGATE AS AN OPEN
TROF. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT DIFFERENCE STILL
REMAIN WITH SPECIIFCS OF LINGERING TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND ASSOCIATED
SLIGHT PROGRESSION DIFFERENCES. PREFER A COMPOSITE GLOBAL/MESO
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH WPC CONTINUITY THAT CAPTURES TOPO DETAILS.
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR SOME MODERATE RAINS AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS SPREAD UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
THE ROCKIES AS PER BROAD BUT DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM EJECTING NRN
STREAM IMPULSE ENERGIES OVERTOP.

...SRN PLAINS...

WITH THE APCH OF SRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN MSTR FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM SRN TX NWD INTO OK ON SUN...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE/REFIRE LATER SUN INTO MONDAY ACROSS OK AND ESPECIALLY TX
WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WITH CONTINUED TROUGH APPROACH ALOFT AND
LEAD DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW. DEEPENING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELL TRAINING COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCAL 2-3"
RAINS AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF ISSUES. THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/OVERALL FLOW HAS LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE WPC
HEAVY CONVECTION FOCUS THAN CONTINUITY HEADING INTO MONDAY
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST OVERALL COMPOSITE MODEL TRENDS.

...CALIFORNIA/PAC NW...

A POTENT ERN PACIFIC STORM TRACK WILL MEANWHILE RELOAD UPSTREAM
WITH AN EMPHASIS BACK INTO THE PAC NW AND N-CENTRAL CA. LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS THE PAC NW/NWRN US SUN WILL ACT TO SPREAD
MOISTURE/WAA/PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A BIGGER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY ADDITIONAL ERN PAFICIC ENERGY
APPROACH LATTER PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT TROUGH APPRAOCH SHOULD ACT TO
NOSE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST AND
SPREAD OVER THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LEADING TO THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF HEAVY PCPN FOR THE REGION.
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS/SPREAD INTO SW OREGON AND NRN AND
CENTRAL CA AND CONTINUE INTO DAY2 WITH GUIDANCE PRECIPITATBLE
WATER ANOMALIES INCREASING UPWARDS TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL THAT SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT WELL DEFINED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE OFFSHORE/JET SUPPORT. RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES. ALSO...PLEASE SEE THE WPC
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER FOR HIER ELEVATIONS.

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LEADING
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PCPN OVER FAR NRN NY/VT/NH/MAINE DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 534193 531183 527171 520162 512155 506148 500142 494138
      488132 483126 480121 482114 487114 490111 488106 487103
      484102 481098 479093 478089 474085 472080 470078 470074
      471068 469063 464067 461069 457069 453071 454074 459078
      461083 460091 460097 455097 446095 436093 428089 426088
      425090 425097 423100 421101 419100 412094 410090 412085
      419078 423076 425071 426067 429061 434054 438050 444051
      448049 455049 459048 462048 465050 473054 483066 489071
      492071 494074 498075 506075 511074 513072 517070 519065
      523054 524049 525041 527035 527029 526027 518007 508006
      502005 499005 497003 486002 479997 472991 467986 455974
      450969 443964 436959 427954 419949 409949 389945 377945
      370944 366943 341942 335942 331941 321940 312940 303942
      286946 277951 271956 255965 253976 252981 250985 244002
      241008 239012 241016 245018 249019 254018 260015 266010
      274006 278004 281003 284005 286008 292009 297010 299012
      306016 309017 314018 324014 331010 334009 337010 342011
      350017 355018 360016 367016 371015 376015 379013 384006
      387998 388992 390988 392983 396980 412975 421975 425976
      429978 433980 436985 441992 445997 444004 444012 442016
      434021 427020 423022 418022 414026 410028 408033 416034
      420034 424037 429039 425043 420043 417045 411045 406046
      400051 396053 391053 388052 385052 382053 380051 378049
      367046 349050 343052 338054 338056 344059 343071 342077
      336076 320080 317080 318084 314086 308087 300090 296092
      296096 297098 301105 304108 308111 312113 314116 320123
      331125 334125 337128 340131 345132 353131 357128 362130
      366132 370135 374141 376142 376145 377145 379142 377138
      382130 385127 389125 397122 401120 406121 416123 423129
      424134 425141 426146 425153 420153 415152 410152 407156
      405158 408161
 0.01 408161 414175 413181 417179 418175 421176 427179 428182
      426184 423188 428188 431186 432189 434196 432205 427209
      425211 423209 419205 412203 404201 397198 387192 375185
      370181 363180 359179 356181 354184 355188 361197 363200
      359201 351198 350196 346196 344200 344208 345215 347221
      350226 355231 360234 365237 372239 386245 399250 406254
      413255 424256 432257 438257 448256 454254 461254 466253
      473254 488261 495270 503281 504284 506283 509278 511275
      510271 507265 505258 506252 507248 508238 507229 504215
      502205 501201 503197 513205 519207 524208 528209 531209
      532205 532198 534193
 0.01 505782 504762 503756 501749 495722 493718 492713 491704
      490698 488691 484678 479668 476664 471662 466661 461663
      454685 453691 449696 445704 442708 437712 432715 434716
      437717 438719 439723 437725 432728 429731 427732 433731
      436734 434748 435751 438755 442755 446751 451740 452735
      456730 461723 465718 469716 471723 470729 467734 465741
      461751 459756 460761 462770 464775 468788 472801 476812
      479817 482822 485826 489826 493817 499806 502795 504788
      505782
 0.01 473116 474109 473101 472098 471095 469093 464092 462097
      460101 457106 455110 456115 460118 463121 467122 470123
      472118 473116
 0.01 446075 445072 443070 443072 445072 446075 446075
 0.01 406093 405091 403089 401089 401090 400092 399093 398094
      398097 399098 401098 401097 402095 403094 405094 406093
 0.01 400793 399790 396791 390796 386797 383800 378805 371808
      367813 369816 371813 375812 378810 383805 387804 390801
      395798 400793
 0.01 357743 357738 355735 350731 343732 336734 324740 312746
      292762 286766 282771 273780 269785 265788 257791 249791
      246793 245797 244803 245807 247809 251809 254808 261806
      269805 282807 291806 296805 308798 315796 322793 328790
      333785 349765 352760 354754 357743
 0.01 341168 339166 338165 334164 331162 329161 325160 323160
      323163 327164 328166 332167 336168 339168 341168
 0.25 498258 500256 499253 497250 496250 495252 494254 495256
      496254 497253 497255 498258 498258
 0.25 500232 501228 501223 498218 493217 488217 484213 477211
      467211 447214 437216 432218 428221 422228 419228 417222
      417216 414213 411212 408208 403205 383193 374187 369184
      362184 359185 362190 368197 376205 378208 377210 373209
      367207 360207 354207 351211 353218 356223 359226 363229
      375236 385241 396245 407248 414250 421251 430250 450245
      472248 478250 483249 485247 485243 483237 482234 482229
      477225 473223 478222 481221 484223 486226 485222 490219
      493225 495232 496235 498235 500232
 0.25 465157 465154 465152 465154 465156 465157 465157
 0.25 458182 459180 457179 456177 454177 452177 451177 450178
      449180 448180 448182 446184 448187 449187 451186 452186
      453185 455185 456184 457184 458182
 0.25 449165 450163 450161 449159 448158 448157 446156 444155
      443153 442151 441151 440150 438151 439153 439154 440156
      441157 441159 442160 444162 445164 446164 447166 448166
      449165
 0.25 450112 449107 448104 448101 444099 441099 438099 436102
      435105 433107 432111 433116 436115 438114 442113 445114
      447114 450112
 0.25 412115 410113 410110 410105 409101 408098 405100 404102
      403107 402111 400113 403115 406116 410116 412115
 0.25 413068 411066 407065 401065 396059 393059 391062 384065
      385069 383070 382067 375066 370062 364061 360063 359065
      359069 363074 368081 370088 372091 376092 380087 384079
      388078 389082 392084 397083 400081 401079 406072 413068
 0.25 385214 384213 382213 380212 379213 380213 382214 383214
      385214
 0.25 397115 396114 394113 392113 391114 392115 394115 396115
      397115
 0.25 371052 369050 365050 361051 359051 356052 352053 352054
      354056 357056 361056 363056 367054 368054 371052
 0.25 372981 372976 370973 368969 364963 360961 350956 337952
      325950 317950 310951 302951 296950 288952 283954 274960
      270964 268970 265975 263980 261987 262993 268995 275995
      288995 296995 300997 304002 311002 322998 328996 335996
      346992 357988 367986 372981
 0.25 350117 347110 344103 342094 339087 335082 332082 331086
      332095 331101 330109 331112 334114 340119 347118 350117
 0.25 334758 334752 330750 322754 315758 308764 302770 297776
      295780 296784 305782 314779 322774 329768 333761 334758
 0.25 319102 320097 320095 317093 315092 312092 309092 307094
      305096 305099 307101 308102 312104 316103 317103 319102
 0.50 477243 479234 477231 474231 470233 465230 456233 452234
      448231 451227 455225 461226 464224 466219 464215 456217
      437221 429224 430227 429230 426232 421232 417231 415229
      416217 399204 389199 382194 373188 368186 362186 366191
      369195 375202 383208 387211 389215 389220 384219 376214
      373211 368210 362210 357209 355211 355215 357221 363227
      372233 381238 392242 403245 424249 434247 441244 450240
      454240 457243 477243
 0.50 403226 402223 400222 398222 397222 397223 396224 398226
      400226 401227 403226
 0.50 407107 407105 407104 407105 406107 407109 407107
 0.50 394073 394072 393071 392069 392068 391067 389068 389069
      388070 389071 389073 390074 391075 392076 393075 394074
      394073
 0.50 377080 378078 378076 378075 376073 374072 372072 372073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 376082 377081 377080
 0.50 368070 367069 366069 365070 365072 366072 367071 368070
 0.50 358978 359974 358970 355967 345963 339960 337958 327955
      316954 305954 294953 289954 285956 277962 272971 270976
      267980 266984 268989 281990 287990 292989 299988 303987
      307988 311992 310996 313997 317995 321992 326991 337990
      344982 352982 358978
 0.50 341102 341101 341100 341098 341096 340094 340093 338091
      337089 335088 334088 334090 334093 335095 335097 336099
      336101 336102 337103 339103 341103 341102
 0.50 315099 316097 314095 313095 311096 310096 311097 311098
      312099 314099 315099
 1.00 427242 426240 425239 424239 423238 421238 419238 417238
      416239 415239 414241 415242 417243 418243 420244 422244
      424244 425244 427242 427242
 1.00 412226 413219 408216 402209 392202 382197 374193 373194
      377198 385204 393211 401218 404221 405226 408230 412226
      412226
 1.00 401239 400235 397231 390228 384225 377221 371215 362213
      361213 359217 362222 368228 375232 382235 390238 399240
      401239
 1.00 345976 344971 343970 339969 337969 334968 330968 328969
      326971 324973 323977 324981 328981 331980 334979 337979
      341978 343977 345976
 1.00 324967 324962 322961 317959 305958 294956 285960 281964
      279968 275978 277983 281985 287986 292985 298983 302981
      306978 308973 311970 317969 321969 324967
 1.50 411223 411221 410219 408220 407222 407223 407225 408227
      410225 411224 411223
 1.50 404214 403212 400209 399208 395206 393205 390203 388203
      390205 392207 394209 396212 398214 401216 404214
 1.50 392235 387231 381227 376224 371221 366218 363215 364221
      368226 373227 377229 384232 389235 392235
 1.50 341973 339973 337973 335975 337976 339976 340976 341973
      341973
 1.50 310966 308963 307962 299961 292961 286962 284964 283968
      281973 281979 285983 291983 296981 300977 303973 306968
      310966
 2.00 401214 401211 400211 399209 397209 396210 397211 398212
      399213 400214 401214
 2.00 295975 294972 292972 290972 289972 288973 287974 287976
      288977 290978 292977 294976 295975

$$





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