Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 18/0000 UTC THRU MAY 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WEST...

A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE WRN STATES... AS A BROAD BUT SHARP
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT WHILE UPSTREAM JET DYNAMICS FROM THE PAC
STREAM INTO THE PAC NW/INTERIOR NW. ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE VERTICAL LIFT SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST... WITH THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS NRN UT/WRN WY/SRN MT THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HRS BEFORE WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING AGAIN TMRW AFTN FROM THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN ROCKIES BACK TO A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTER NEW SWRN MT. MEANWHILE... LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
COMMENCE ACROSS THE NW AS A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
LATER SAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS FOR EACH SYSTEM WITH
.50 TO 1 INCH OROGRAPHIC AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WASATCH TO THE
ABSAROKA/BIG HORN MTNS.

...PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

A VERY COMPLEX FCST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRI
EVENING THROUGH SAT... AS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST EMERGE INTO
THE PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
EVENT... SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY STILL
THRIVING FROM LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND RE-DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN MN INTO WI BUT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LL/850 MB PLAINS JET FOCUSES
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLING OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
SD INTO WRN NE AND THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST UP TOWARDS
CENTRAL/SERN ND AND NRN MN. THE GFS THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAX BACK INTO THE COLD SECTOR BY EARLY SAT
ACROSS NERN MT/NWRN ND... WHICH APPEARS LIKE AN OUTLIER. AS THIS
COMPLEX MOSE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS RAPIDLY SAT... THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SAT AFTN/EVENING FROM ERN MT
AND ND/SD SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NE/KS/OK INTO NRN TX. OVERALL
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES TMRW AFTN
BUT WPC FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PINPOINT A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER CENTRAL SD/SERN ND FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TN/LWR OH VLYS TO MID-ATL STATES...

A MID-LEVEL/500MB LOW CENTER DETACHED MOSTLY FROM THE WESTERLIES
WILL DRIFT THE NEXT 24 HRS FROM WRN TN/KY TO THE ERN PORTION OF
THESE TWO STATES ON SAT. ONCE AGAIN... A SOLID PLUME OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCH PWS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL POOL ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM... WHILE BEGINNING TO INGEST SOME ESERLY ATLANTIC
INFLOW. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NRN
AL/MS/GA TO ERN TN/KY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE MAX ACROSS SWRN/SRN VA.
THE GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS A DECENT HANDLING OF THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX AXIS AND WPC FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH THE INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF MEAN FOR QPF TOTALS. SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS NOT MOVING QUICKLY... THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS FROM NRN AL TO ERN TN WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF ISSUES THOUGH 1 AND 3 HR FFG REMAINS
BORDERLINE.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 498327 494325 490324 486317 482315 479316 471313 443312
      439312 436309 432303 428295 431288 427285 425283 422276
      420272 422266 424256 424251 422248 419245 418241 423230
      426226 425218 428216 426206 424196 419193 418191 414188
      415180 413171 410164 411156 408154 406156 402157 400161
      396168 393172 387171 383166 379166 379171 378181 375181
      374178 370161 366155 365153 366147 370142 373139 374134
      373127 375120 378115 383111 389109 392109 393106 396101
      391098 390094 389094 386096 383094 377091 373084 373073
      369068 366066 362066 360065 362063 364061 368060 373061
      376063 380063 384061 387062 389061 395056 399052 404049
      413047 419050 424052 427056 427060 426063 423066 421067
      420079 421081 424078 427077 430075 432066 436060 438056
      437051 434045 431040 430032 424032 418035 414035 413032
      409025 402015 390009 377006 371003 361004 345005 337005
      331003 325001 321002 319004 307009 305011 301011 296010
      285011 281011 278008 275002 274001 276998 279993 284996
      294001 299999 300992 302987 307983 310977 314973 318969
      324968 329970 333969 337969 367969 374967 380965 384965
      386967 390974 396977 402974 408970 410973 415973 418976
      419982 420990 421995 426993 430990 431986 433977 432965
      433945 431935 427931 422930 420927 419924 417915 415913
      414910 408904 406897 409881 408876 405874 403874 394879
      389883 385888 377891 372889 367887 362888 360891 359895
      360900 362911 362916 361918 359924 359930 359932 354932
      352931 347927 343925 339925 334922 331918 328916 323914
      316914 313906 315898 318894 318887 317880 317875 315870
      315865 315856 318852 325839 327834 326830 321831 313834
      308834 302832 297829 293827 287826 275824 269823 263820
      253815 248820 243818 242814 243811 245804 249798 255795
      263794 269794 274796 277799 278802 283806 288807 296811
      306813 311814 315813 316811 321806 326803 329797 330794
      334791 341786 345780 347775 345769 342761 341757 341753
      343747 349743 353738 359738 373742 375742 380738 384738
      390740 392744 394750 396761 397767 397775 400780 398792
      405801 406810 408820 411830 411835 410840 410843 409847
      413854 416856 417859 418864 416868 414875 414877 412882
      413887 416891 423890 428894 430896 433895 437893 441891
      442885 442879 440865 442857 445849 449843 451840 455840
      461843 467849 472857 482857 498877 503880 509885 514901
      516907 514910 511919 507927 506931 505938 504946 505961
      506985 506997 505007 504013 503016 502022 500026 493038
      490046 489061 490090 491094 492102 494112 502127 515136
      519143 523150 526152 528156 529159 529166 528176 530184
      534202 536210 536217 534221 530221 526220 522217 518217
      514214 514210 510202 507201 504201 503204 500209 503215
      508220 512226 515232 520244 524253
 0.01 486674 482668 480669 476668 474668 471671 466671 463673
      459676 454682 453688 452692 449695 442699 436704 434710
      437718 435726 436729 442729 447726 452721 458714 461708
      463705 467702 470700 474700 478691 480686 482684 486678
      486674
 0.01 477198 478194 478190 476186 476185 474180 471175 469173
      466174 466175 464178 463182 462186 464190 464191 466195
      467196 469200 469201 471203 474202 474201 477198
 0.01 447920 447916 446912 444909 443908 440906 437906 434904
      431905 429909 429912 433915 436918 436919 440922 443923
      446923 447920
 0.01 446174 445173 442170 441165 440164 437162 434164 433168
      434172 436176 439177 442176 445176 446174
 0.01 431156 431152 431148 431144 431140 431136 431132 428133
      427135 426139 426143 425147 427151 427155 429158 431156
 0.01 401098 401097 398097 395098 398100 401100 401098
 0.25 522197 520191 518189 512184 505181 501176 497174 494175
      489179 488188 488197 487203 486207 484210 480212 475215
      478219 479222 477224 471230 466233 464238 466242 470249
      475253 482255 486258 488260 493267 499270 501270 503266
      502261 499257 496250 491244 487239 485236 485232 483227
      486228 489228 492230 497234 500234 500232 498223 491210
      491205 492201 496191 500187 506183 509185 511189 516194
      519198 522197
 0.25 509264 511260 508257 505257 505258 505260 506263 507264
      509264
 0.25 495905 494897 492892 488889 484889 477893 469901 466902
      465905 463909 460917 457926 456934 454939 451947 447955
      445967 443974 441979 433995 429001 422008 417014 415019
      416023 418024 423025 428022 432020 435021 440023 443025
      446028 447030 448037 447043 444056 441064 438066 436072
      438080 432088 427090 427094 423099 421101 418104 415103
      412093 410089 408088 409085 408077 406073 403070 401069
      398070 394073 389075 384075 382078 384082 386083 396084
      402083 406087 407090 405100 403106 400109 397110 394113
      386116 383120 384124 394127 400127 405128 410129 415129
      420128 426122 429119 432117 435116 439119 440123 438131
      438138 439143 443153 448160 452163 455164 464161 473162
      478160 481158 487152 492147 493143 494139 492133 487125
      479119 478114 479107 479102 482096 484091 483084 480080
      480074 481058 483046 485034 486027 486018 487006 489991
      490976 491965 491955 492938 491929 493918 495905
 0.25 385755 384749 380748 371749 364751 361757 362761 360766
      360776 357793 356802 355810 354818 353824 348824 342825
      337832 330847 327854 325862 324870 325881 325887 327892
      333898 337907 344909 358879 386870 392863 395855 396847
      396839 395833 392810 393802 391792 388780 387774 387770
      385755
 0.25 380977 376973 367974 354979 347978 342976 338976 333977
      328979 315986 309990 310994 313997 316997 321995 327995
      332994 339990 342988 346987 352990 358995 361994 367990
      374986 379981 380977
 0.25 313823 312823 309822 307825 307826 310826 312824 313823
 0.25 287820 285818 284817 281817 280819 282820 285821 287820
 0.25 265809 263807 263806 260805 257806 257809 259812 262813
      265812 265809
 0.50 487917 485912 485908 482909 479916 477922 476925 473926
      464927 461930 460938 458946 456951 453956 452964 452971
      449975 424013 420017 420022 423021 428017 432015 437017
      446020 449019 453021 457025 458027 456035 455041 453047
      447057 446065 443069 441073 446078 449082 451088 448091
      442088 438087 434091 431096 433102 443109 448117 453119
      457117 461114 468113 472109 474103 476095 476090 473087
      470083 469079 470074 471068 472057 480033 478013 479003
      480995 484980 484970 482962 480953 482946 484940 487917
 0.50 479239 479236 476237 475238 478240 479239
 0.50 453147 453142 451141 448142 445141 445142 446146 447148
      450150 453147
 0.50 374753 371756 369760 370767 373778 371782 369785 363793
      363795 364801 364809 361818 361828 359833 356836 351836
      346833 344832 340833 336847 332854 328861 328868 328876
      329887 332892 335894 337895 341893 342886 346881 349877
      354875 359870 362868 371869 376867 383862 386856 387847
      389843 388837 377829 375824 377819 381812 387798 382791
      382788 381782 379770 375761 374753
 0.50 424115 426109 423107 418111 414111 411103 410100 408101
      406106 406109 403113 397114 391119 390121 394122 398123
      402122 409122 413120 417121 421119 423116 424115
 0.50 374978 371977 368977 365979 364980 364983 365984 368984
      371982 374979 374978
 0.50 331991 329990 326991 326992 329992 331991
 1.00 479976 475967 472960 472952 471947 469945 466946 465949
      459956 456960 457964 461967 463971 461984 463000 464009
      466013 469015 471012 472008 474995 478981 479976
 1.00 458005 457001 455993 456987 455982 452980 448982 445986
      442991 441995 439000 437005 436008 437012 440012 443011
      448007 451006 454007 457008 458005
 1.00 370840 369834 368832 367838 361844 354848 348848 343851
      336856 334861 333878 333885 336882 338876 342872 348870
      349865 354860 358857 362856 366861 370862 372858 373853
      370844 370840
 1.50 476977 475976 474973 472970 471969 469965 468965 466966
      466970 465974 464979 465983 466987 467991 468995 468000
      469995 470991 471991 473986 475981 475978 476977
 1.50 451990 450986 450985 449986 447988 446990 447993 450991
      451990
 1.50 343861 342860 339860 338862 338865 338866 341866 342865
      343862 343861
 2.00 473977 470974 469973 469974 467978 467979 467983 470985
      472982 473978 473977

$$
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