Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FLORIDA

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LOT OF MOVEMENT TO THE ELONGATED
VORT AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
FLORIDA IN THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL H85
CENTER OFF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST COAST OF FLORIDA---HOWEVER--- IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING DAY 1.  MOIST ONSHORE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WEAK CENTER WILL AGAIN
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS---ISOLATED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5"+ POSSIBLE---CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES--ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.  THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SW TO WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA---WITH LIGHTER TOTALS INLAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
PENINSULA.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 1.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA IN A REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FROM PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THERE IS A STRONG
MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS COMMA
HEAD--SUPPORTING ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  FARTHER TO THE
EAST---FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO ENHANCE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVE LINE POSSIBLE TO PUSH EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THIS CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BECOME VERY PROGRESSIVE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY---A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN TOTALS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.

NORTHEAST---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY

AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM THE
NORTHEAST---THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK---SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY 1.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE
RELATIVE MAX MUCAPE AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH
QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED--WITH LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 551015 551008 550004 549993 549985 548980 545970 538958
      534950 530945 524940 519936 504931 498930 491928 481923
      474921 471919 469920 452925 428937 400901 402883 405861
      404838 403829 401826 401820 396804 397799 399795 403788
      409773 412767 417763 426752 434747 439746 443747 448751
      447759 447766 452770 458774 461770 468758 471749 473745
      476742 480736 484728 488722 492717 498710 504704 509698
      511692 510685 506677 502671 497667 492666 487663 482659
      479662 478667 465677 461681 457684 453686 438694 432697
      427693 421694 418700 414708 410713 400719 396722 393725
      388732 384738 383747 372756 361769 357774 359781 360787
      359794 358804 356811 353819 350827 346833 344841 345853
      353866 356870 357876 359886 363902 371914 375918 382920
      387925 392931 401943 403945 405947 403949 400952 396958
      396963 398965 402968 404969 403971 399978 390989 385995
      383999 375012 364023 361030 360040 355043 349045 342045
      337047 335045 317039 303035 296033 292033 290031 277034
      274038 268040 257040 253038 251035 241027 238025 234025
      230024 228027 228031 227042 227050 230057 234063 244074
      255083 265093 275103 286113 293116 296118 300116 307113
      313111 321108 324102 322092 323085 324080 329079 332081
      336082 339082 342078 346072 353071 360068 365068 370070
      373077 374080 377083 384088 387089 391089 399088 404081
      410080 427052 439046
 0.01 439046 445046 449049 449053 447059 445064 443067 439069
      439076 438084 435088 430089 427086 424088 425094 427099
      427103 418106 412110 412115 417116 420118 420122 418125
      415132 414138 414141 416144 419145 426142 432143 435146
      443165 448170 454172 458171 462169 465166 474164 477163
      483164 488165 491168 498175 506181 511185 516185 519183
      525177 527172 528165 526159 524155 521151 521144 523126
      524119 526114 533093 539065 546044 549029 550020 551015
 0.01 436023 434018 434016 432014 428014 425015 420016 415019
      411023 409025 409028 410030 414031 419029 423029 426027
      431027 436023
 0.01 312820 312813 311805 307799 304795 299794 295792 291792
      279793 270792 265791 261793 257795 254798 249806 246814
      243823 245835 248858 249870 248875 248879 252890 253895
      255898 260907 264913 270921 275927 281934 288939 297941
      303937 303930 301926 300922 297920 290914 285907 284900
      282897 278889 273880 271870 272865 275862 282857 285854
      288850 291841 299837 306831 310825 312820
 0.25 535013 536002 536989 534980 533973 530965 526960 521957
      517954 511951 507951 504949 500945 496941 485935 474930
      467930 460933 449937 442939 436942 432947 430954 426969
      424974 425979 428985 433988 439987 445985 452984 457987
      460991 459996 450004 446008 443011 444016 450026 460036
      463041 465045 463048 456058 452065 450073 449080 451089
      444098 441105 439108 440112 443118 443128 448141 453146
      458149 464147 469144 479137 484136 487135 489131 492125
      496120 501117 506116 511114 516109 519104 522095 525076
      528056 531037 533025 535013
 0.25 517166 517164 516163 515163 513162 511162 510162 511164
      512165 513166 514168 516169 517166
 0.25 469704 470701 468699 467701 466702 465703 464705 466707
      467706 469704 469704
 0.25 403762 403756 400754 392757 388763 384770 380775 376782
      376786 378788 383787 386786 391780 396775 399769 403762
 0.25 292081 293079 292077 291076 289075 287074 285074 283075
      282076 281078 283080 285081 286082 288082 290083 292082
      292081
 0.25 293830 293822 292815 286813 280812 270808 267807 263807
      258805 254806 252812 250818 250824 250829 251832 253838
      255844 259846 272844 278842 283839 287835 292832 293830
 0.25 269068 269066 268064 266062 262060 261059 257058 254057
      250057 250060 251061 255063 257064 260065 262067 264068
      267069 269068
 0.25 238047 236046 235047 236048 238048 238047
 0.50 532008 532997 532987 530981 527975 524970 520966 516961
      512957 507956 501952 493947 484940 479937 474935 469935
      463937 453941 444947 440953 440957 442961 443966 448972
      459975 466976 471979 474984 475992 472996 467002 458006
      447012 447015 450016 454020 462028 466032 469036 470044
      468052 467058 466068 463080 458091 450101 447108 447112
      450127 453132 458135 464137 469135 473133 477129 485120
      494115 504111 509108 512105 515100 519091 520084 521075
      521064 522054 526039 530022 532014 532008
 0.50 284829 284824 281821 277817 271813 268811 264811 259811
      255813 253816 252820 254830 258836 264838 273837 277836
      280834 284829
 1.00 521017 522011 522004 520996 516989 512985 509983 506983
      501987 496991 490993 484997 479001 474006 471012 471017
      471021 474029 481042 482045 481050 479058 476066 473075
      472086 469094 460104 459107 457113 457117 458120 464123
      470121 480114 492109 498106 503103 508099 512092 513089
      514082 515070 515046 518029 521017
 1.00 279828 277824 274820 271818 268815 264814 260815 257818
      257824 259827 262829 266831 271832 276830 279828
 1.50 510071 510063 509056 508049 508040 511025 512017 511009
      508001 505998 500998 496000 486005 478012 476019 477027
      481032 485035 492043 491048 488055 484068 480081 476084
      474093 473100 470105 471109 477109 486107 496102 500100
      504097 507091 509085 510071
 1.50 274826 273824 272823 272822 270820 268819 267818 266818
      264817 262818 261819 260819 260821 260823 261825 262825
      263826 265827 267828 269828 271828 273828 274826
 2.00 505075 506068 505062 500056 496057 494063 490071 486083
      481090 477096 477102 480105 487102 494098 497097 501093
      503089 504083 505075
 2.00 506024 508014 506009 505008 498007 493009 488012 485015
      483020 484024 488029 491033 497035 502031 505026 506024

$$




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