Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271902
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 28/0000 UTC THRU OCT 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 1 AHEAD
OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING TOWARD THE
B.C. COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY  PUSHING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON AND WA COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC
RANGE---WITH  A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN THE COAST RANGES AND THE CASCADES.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE ABOVE REFERENCED MAXIMA WITH
THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HI RES ARW
USED FOR DETAILS.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CONSOLIDATING INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST LIFT IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION REGION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS ONTARIO.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION REGION TO EXTEND
INTO NORTHEAST MN AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P.
OF MI---WITH .25-.50" AREAL AVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---LOWER TN VALLEY INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS
VALLEY

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO.  WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION---ESPECIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID TO
LOWER MS VALLEY.  .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE
REGIONS---WITH MAX AMOUNTS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY---LOWER TN
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE CONVECTION MAY MAXIMIZE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 535215 537205 537197 538189 534184 525175 516168 505163
      492159 486157 479157 472157 469157 466159 465159 463162
      462168 463173 465174 466177 470179 474184 471195 469203
      468205 464205 459203 458201 458195 458190 460185 458182
      455181 453182 451188 449204 445208 440210 428213 424215
      422217 421221 422224 425226 425231 422232 417232 412235
      409241 411248 411252 414254 416256 418259 422265 427267
      447262 457267 471268 476270 482273 484279 485282 489284
      493288 500291 503293 506292 511289 514285 517278 519270
      522261 521252 521247 520243 515232 513226 508221 502209
      504206 506208 509212 512214 514216 519223 524226 527227
      529224 535215
 0.01 534816 533798 532788 530779 528770 525764 520751 515738
      509726 491711 484704 477714 474719 470723 463734 448752
      431771 415788 399804 385821 368841 343881 338891 334902
      331906 328913 326919 324928 321939 318950 323953 327950
      333960 335965 337971 341976 343976 344981 344987 345990
      350991 356989 360986 368979 371975 374969 380957 385945
      390935 392928 397926 403923 407922 410924 416924 421919
      428914 432910 440909 442907 445909 450910 450918 452923
      456937 459943 460947 463949 467953 467962 467974 465977
      465981 467996 468001 470006 469012 468018 469026 469032
      472038 489054 493058 498062 502059 505055 508050 510043
      508028 506021 504015 496006 496001 498998 502993 506982
      509974 511970 515971 518973 522968 528958 532943 534937
      536928 536923 535916 535910 531875 533859 534840 534826
      534816
 0.25 530205 529199 525193 520189 517183 515179 510174 507172
      505176 506182 507185 510189 515194 517198 521205 523207
      526208 529207 530205
 0.25 514272 516262 516253 512239 510232 507226 501213 498208
      493203 489199 482201 473206 469208 462210 452214 441217
      437221 435231 432237 431239 426239 421239 419243 420245
      424247 427248 435250 440250 448252 462256 472260 478264
      484268 504286 507284 510280 514272
 0.25 527828 527820 527810 524792 522779 517766 513754 511749
      507745 493731 489730 484733 480736 477741 469762 465765
      462770 457780 454790 451797 450804 450832 449840 447845
      445850 445856 446860 451863 455865 460868 474882 476885
      478889 478894 476900 474906 470909 468914 464925 464930
      467936 473943 481949 486952 491952 496952 500950 506942
      512934 516921 519909 520893 521878 522860 527828
 0.25 418844 416834 411834 406835 402834 401830 401825 403820
      402815 398816 392822 381834 371847 362861 353875 344890
      337905 334914 333918 334924 336926 340925 345918 349911
      355904 358903 361900 371899 373900 373902 371906 368916
      366926 368930 372933 376932 378928 383920 387913 392906
      402892 405884 406877 405872 403869 408861 415854 417849
      418844
 0.25 368947 369945 368943 367945 368947 368947
 0.50 514266 514259 514251 511238 500217 497211 492207 488205
      483205 465212 447219 442221 444227 443233 439237 436242
      436245 438247 449249 462251 467253 473257 482263 487267
      491271 498280 501282 504283 508279 512272 514266
 0.50 522829 522822 521813 519800 516787 515781 512775 510773
      508772 505774 502777 500781 499794 498801 496807 493808
      489806 485796 482786 479781 475779 471780 468784 466788
      465795 464804 464809 463817 464823 462827 460832 461838
      468844 475848 482853 484857 484862 486872 487881 487889
      485901 482911 470925 470931 473934 479940 489942 496942
      498941 502938 507929 510921 511911 511903 512874 512861
      513854 515848 520839 522829
 0.50 491237 490232 489226 486223 483221 479221 474221 471223
      473227 477227 480229 482234 486236 488236 491237
 0.50 395830 395827 394823 391826 385834 372851 361867 351885
      340902 336912 336916 337918 341915 351897 356888 363879
      369871 375864 381855 386847 391839 395830
 1.00 511263 512255 511247 509240 506234 500223 496218 491214
      488210 483209 478211 472213 473218 479218 490221 492228
      493235 493239 491240 486238 482241 480234 476230 469232
      464232 459233 449236 447240 450242 456244 461245 469248
      478254 482259 487263 495272 498276 501279 504278 506274
      506268 506264 508263 511263
 1.00 464224 465221 465219 464218 463217 461217 460217 459218
      458219 457221 457222 458224 460226 461226 462226 463224
      464224
 1.50 510257 509248 507240 504236 501230 498224 496221 493222
      494230 495239 498244 501250 505254 510257
 1.50 503275 504267 502262 497251 490242 487241 483245 481243
      479236 475232 471236 469241 473245 477248 481252 487260
      494269 497273 502277 503275
 2.00 502273 502267 500263 498259 496254 494251 491246 488244
      486248 485251 487256 489260 492264 495268 498271 500273
      502273 502273
 2.00 506248 506245 505241 503239 501236 500233 499229 497226
      496224 495228 495231 496236 497238 499240 502243 503245
      504248 506248
 2.00 478241 478239 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 474235
      473237 474238 474239 475241 476242 478241 478241
 3.00 496262 496261 495259 495257 494256 493254 493253 492252
      491250 491249 490250 490252 491255 491257 491258 492260
      493261 494263 495265 496262

$$





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