Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/0000 UTC THRU MAY 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE BROAD SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE U.S. INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  OVERALL--THERE CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD MASS FIELD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION DAY 1--WITH
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS SPRAWLING
CIRCULATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES---GREAT
BASIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT WHERE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO FOCUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE---LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.

CENTRAL U.S.

NO CHANGES TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NATION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE WESTERN
CIRCULATION.  AREAS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY FALL AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA PUSH EASTWARD.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE MODEL TO MODEL SPREAD WITH DETAILS AND RUN
TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH QPF FORECASTS IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD---CONFIDENCE IS LOW---BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS DEPENDING ON WHERE
CONVECTION MAXIMIZES.

SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL RE-AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
HEIGHT FALLS DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC.  THE LEAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
AND PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.  ORGANIZED
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND---INCLUDING THE CAPE AND OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS RE-AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN TROF.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE PRECIP
TOTALS OF .25"+ ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE UVVS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 439631 442635 446638 452643 453650 453655 450667 446678
      442688 437696 431704 429706 428710 430713 433713 438709
      439705 444697 449687 457681 460681 463679 468669 469666
      471665 474667 477674 478680 476691 472700 469704 466709
      464721 463734 462745 458759 448773 435789 428791 423796
      415804 411808 409813 394824 374826 370830 366831 358835
      355836 351835 351833 351826 354821 356818 357814 355811
      352809 349805 347801 343798 336802 330809 326812 322812
      320811 316811 310812 304812 300811 291807 282806 263803
      259800 256797 258791 263788 267786 273786 282788 288788
      292789 302790 311791 318791 324788 326786 327780 326775
      323770 323767 325762 331756 335754 341753 350749 359747
      369750 372751 374749 375746 374741 372734 370730 365722
      359714 356712 355704 353700 354695 357685 359680 362677
      368671 371668 376666 392650 395647 400645 405643 409642
      412640
 0.01 557095 558078 559060 559045 557033 555028 552023 548014
      546011 541011 531010 527012 523012 517011 514009 508006
      508003 505003 492002 490002 487000 483999 474998 455996
      448996 438995 428994 420991 411986 408983 405979 398974
      395972 392969 386963 375962 367963 362965 359967 352969
      347969 342966 338957 328947 313937 310934 308930 303924
      297918 285918 282919 280923 274930 267937 261943 259950
      260955 262958 262980 269985 280989 283991 285995 285002
      285009 289016 292020 295022 297025 301027 311029 322029
      325029 327027 332027 340025 350023 360022 369024 374026
      380027 389024 397021 400017 402012 419022 422029 422037
      419041 418048 418053 421058 426060 436061 440068 444077
      448080 453081 460083 461085 462091 466101 464104 462103
      459101 455100 452097 450095 446094 441096 438094 436091
      432087 428085 425085 423088 424099 421101 419107 417108
      414108 412104 411098 410095 407095 404104 403107 401108
      396108 393112 388114 387118 388123 387133 386136 388138
      391138 399134 405128 412125 417127 417135 416141 414146
      413151 415157 415163 418168 425172 427172 429168 429162
      428157 425146 423139 424136 425130 427127 430123 435122
      440125 440129 435137 434147 434154 436161 440171 439177
      437184 437189 435192 433193 430187 429182 425181 422183
      419187 419191 419199 418208 419213 415217 414212 409210
      403205 384192 379189 374188 374192 376197 389209 402219
      403225 399229 396225 391222 389233 395238 415244 420246
      425246 429245 434244 444244 455244 464245 467244 472245
      477247 481249 481243 480238 478233 474230 472230 473227
      477226 480225 486227 492235 496241 502249 508256 513258
      515254 516248 515243 513233 511225 511218 513213 515211
      518213 523214 527212 532207 538200 542186 548161 551149
      553135
 0.01 553135 553132 554130 554127 554124 554122 555119 555116
      555114 555111 555108 556105 556103 556100 556097 557095
 0.01 527063 527056 526053 524052 520047 513043 509043 507041
      499040 490040 488041 487045 488047 495051 500054 506059
      512062 519066 523067 525065 527063
 0.01 477205 478201 477197 477195 475192 467185 461185 458190
      455194 452198 449200 444201 440203 436206 434210 435213
      439214 449214 459212 467209 476206 477205
 0.01 457035 455033 454033 452032 450034 450032 449030 447031
      448034 450034 452036 453036 455036 457035
 0.25 551115 552104 551096 549093 546091 541092 533091 529087
      519080 509072 497069 486063 479061 473058 465056 461059
      459062 458067 464069 470071 478072 481074 482079 483087
      489098 496110 498117 498125 497127 495129 488129 482127
      477127 473128 471130 469136 468139 467140 460141 457146
      456151 456155 461161 466164 475173 484184 488188 491195
      492199 490204 486207 475212 471215 465216 459217 458221
      460224 466223 471221 478220 483221 489221 493224 497231
      501236 503236 503232 502224 501216 501206 505203 511201
      522199 531192 535188 539182 541175 544165 546156 548145
      551115
 0.25 442659 441652 437650 432651 425654 418661 409667 400669
      395672 391675 386684 384690 379693 375696 372699 370704
      369707 369711 372717 375721 382729 388735 393738 399736
      403733 406729 411726 414722 419712 423701 427692 433683
      439674 442662 442659
 0.25 440224 439222 438221 436221 434221 432221 431221 430221
      429223 430226 431228 433228 435228 437227 438226 439225
      440224
 0.25 457054 453051 447048 441046 436044 431046 429047 429051
      429054 432056 437054 442056 447059 452058 456057 457054
 0.25 424779 424774 423770 418766 412764 406763 400762 393760
      387759 381762 377768 375771 374774 378779 380782 381786
      379794 381805 386808 392805 405799 415790 420787 424780
      424779
 0.25 359000 357995 353992 345987 340985 334985 330983 326983
      323984 317990 313988 314983 315980 314977 310973 308969
      305964 299958 293957 288960 286963 286969 288975 288979
      290981 292985 295988 301989 306992 311999 316009 318013
      322016 327017 334017 343013 349006 355003 359000
 0.25 351782 351780 352778 351775 350773 348771 346770 344770
      342771 341773 341774 340775 340777 341779 341781 341782
      342783 344785 345786 347786 349786 350784 351784 351782
 0.50 543154 544142 545130 546120 544114 542111 538105 532103
      528098 522092 516090 509088 503090 499095 498098 498101
      499104 503110 507117 507121 506127 505137 503140 500140
      493137 488132 480130 477131 475134 482148 478152 470151
      466151 466156 471162 480173 485178 491182 502189 510192
      517191 526183 532182 536177 540165 543154
 0.50 435671 433666 429666 422670 418672 414673 405676 400677
      396680 392687 388693 385696 381699 375705 375709 375715
      377719 380723 386727 390729 395728 403725 410719 414713
      418705 421697 424689 434676 435671
 1.00 533157 534150 533144 535128 534123 531119 527116 522117
      519117 515121 512131 512144 510149 512153 518161 524166
      527166 531163 533157
 1.00 506174 502169 498166 493162 488159 483158 480160 480162
      482168 485172 491175 495175 500174 506174
 1.00 492145 492142 490139 489138 488136 487136 486135 484135
      483135 483138 484138 485140 487141 488143 489144 490145
      491146 492145
 1.00 415693 414689 410685 407685 401686 398689 397694 396700
      399707 401711 404713 407710 410707 413704 414699 415695
      415693

$$





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