Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 20/0000 UTC THRU MAY 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX FCST... FEATURING THE INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS... TWO SMALL SCALE MID-LEVEL LOWS/MCVS
IN WRN NE AND WRN IA... COUNTLESS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS... AN ANOMALOUS POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL SETUP HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE NRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THE MOST ORGANIZED
RAINFALL AT THE MOMENT AND LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS IS TRUE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF ND BACK
INTO ERN MT/WY... AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNS INTO THE COLD SECTOR
TO COMBINE FOR A HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE OF MDT TO HVY RAINFALL
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN MT/WY. THE GUIDANCE HAS A SOLID
HANDLING OF THIS STEADY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE RAIN RATES SHOULD DECREASE OVER
TIME AS THE UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPR MS VLY EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THRIVES
OVERNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE REALLY VARIES... ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF THESE TWO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE DATA...
BASICALLY A CONGLOMERATE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS FROM ERN IA/MN INTO
NRN WI... ANOTHER FROM ERN SD/ERN ND AND NWRN MN AND FINALLY A MAX
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK NEWRD TO CENTRAL MO. IN ALL OF THESE
LOCALES... 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
NUMBERS... AS THIS REMAINS A SLOW LARGE SCALE SYSTEM OVERALL WITH
VERY FAVORABLE FACETS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

...SOUTHEAST...

ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA... AS A TRAPPED MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN
APPALACHIANS FUELED A HEAVY
RAINFALL COMPLEX OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN/NERN GA WITHIN INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AS THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED... MORE
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN TN/NWRN GA NEAR THE EDGE OF A MOIST
DECAYING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED AND BEGAN TRAINING AND
PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST TO PARTIALLY CLIP THE AREAS IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT IN GA. THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES OUTPUT HAS
HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HRS MARGINALLY AT BEST
AND THE FOCUS LATER TODAY INTO TMRW APPEARS BE SETTING UP OVER
SC/CENTRAL NC... AS SMALL POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH POOLING PW MAX FOR SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND INTERNAL
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

...NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORT WAVE OVER ERN CANADA WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA/CANADIAN MARITIMES AND PRODUCE SOME WARM
ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN THROUGH TMRW. THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE MAX
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT FROM
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MAINE. THIS IS WHERE WPC PLACED A MAX
OF A .50 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 503696 500691 496686 489680 480674 475670 471668 463662
      455659 450656 446656 439655 433659 428663 424668 423673
      423679 418680 414680 411684 399704 396713 395717 395723
      394729 395733 397737 397739 394741 384749 374751 365752
      358751 353752 348756 342763 338767 335771 330778 326782
      321787 318791 312794 307797 302798 295797 286795 278792
      272790 262788 257788 252791 245798 241815 244818 249816
      256821 263826 270829 280832 288833 297835 304835 309846
      313847 318847 328849 336849 342849 348847 355844 358840
      362839 366841 373842 381847 386845 388841 391838 390831
      392826 396822 401819 403815 405813 404806 403803 404798
      405794 410791 414788 412781 408779 406779 401778 398776
      399772 404765 405761 407759 409754 413749 416750 418754
      421756 424755 425752 427747 430744 435739 439740 446747
      454757 461762 464766 468769 473771 478770 485767 489767
      492757 495753 497747 499741 500739 500735 497728 493724
      492721 492718 496717 502713 503696
 0.01 530184 532176 532168 531164 529159 524152 519143 509125
      506119 505114 499104 490094 485090 484086 485080 487076
      490072 494070 498069 501068 506062 506049 507033 509024
      509007 508993 507975 506956 505943 504928 503912 503900
      501886 501878 501873 500861 499855 499848 499845 497838
      494831 491824 489821 486816 485814 482809 479807 477802
      473802 470801 464803 461801 456804 442818 438823 430829
      424835 421838 421840 422848 421852 418851 413853 408858
      405861 404865 401873 399878 395878 393876 389876 383883
      381891 380898 377897 368900 363906 359909 355910 350908
      347909 332906 321898 310895 307896 303900 300904 297910
      299915 301918 304928 305935 304940 302944 298947 294953
      290962 292965 295967 298967 301966 311955 316948 317940
      322939 327940 329944 329949 332956 328962 322966 319970
      314972 308977 302983 297987 290992 285996 282002 283007
      285009 288010 292009 301009 305006 315004 320002 330000
      336997 356991 366987 375986 380986 383988 386984 390979
      393977 397976 402977 404980 405991 404996 401000 403008
      402014 401017 399018 397016 397012 387001 384998 379998
      374999 371002 370005 371008 374019 376024 376029 375034
      373037 369040 368046 369050 374055 381059 381063 376063
      371062 369061 366065 369072 375076 378083 384085 386090
      391098 394102 397102 396097 398093 401094 403103 403110
      405113 409118 414122 420117 423115 423114 423109 424107
      426103 430103 434110 435116 436116 441117 444118 446121
      448126 448134 456136 462144 464149 468150 469145 467142
      464135 468134 471137 478139 484144 492151 497153 499155
      502165 504170 507174 512178 515182 524185 529186 530184
 0.01 429767 428763 425764 422766 422767 421772 421776 420780
      420781 421784 422784 425786 426787 426786 427782 428781
      429776 428772 429767 429767
 0.01 362923 360920 358924 356928 354932 351935 353937 358931
      359931 360927 361925 362923
 0.25 475684 472677 469673 461667 453664 446664 441666 435671
      431677 430681 428684 423689 414694 410697 408700 405705
      405709 407714 412717 420721 427722 432719 437715 451726
      460733 463737 467739 471738 474733 478721 479709 478697
      475684
 0.25 517162 518157 517154 515148 512144 509140 506137 501135
      498136 495140 498140 500145 505150 508154 511158 516162
      517162
 0.25 495895 493878 490865 487855 484849 480844 476841 469837
      461833 457830 452828 448827 443831 441842 441847 439853
      438860 434866 431871 431876 429882 424885 418889 409897
      403900 397894 393891 390891 388894 386898 384904 382909
      378912 374916 371920 366929 361936 357942 353946 351950
      346958 337963 330971 324978 322980 317981 311983 308986
      306989 306994 310995 315993 318991 320987 323986 329986
      335986 340983 345979 353983 358984 364982 370976 376970
      378966 384963 390963 396960 400955 403953 411949 415956
      418959 419966 420974 418979 412999 410006 410015 413018
      418019 421022 421031 418040 414050 412055 410057 402064
      401068 401076 403080 408083 415090 423096 432098 439099
      442101 447104 450107 453112 457114 465119 470119 475118
      476116 477111 475106 473097 471091 467081 473076 479070
      485063 491054 498042 502027 504013 505001 505982 503962
      501944 499922 495895
 0.25 381769 376760 369759 363764 355769 346774 341777 337780
      325790 320797 315805 313807 309809 302809 298809 295806
      293804 288803 281804 277806 272806 267804 265798 262794
      258794 254796 252799 252802 255811 257815 261817 271823
      279825 287824 291822 294824 297826 301827 310823 315822
      318824 323829 329834 335835 343836 348835 352833 358829
      365828 374828 376826 375821 374810 379793 378784 381773
      381769
 0.50 467690 466682 462675 456671 447666 441669 437674 435679
      434684 434692 436696 442705 445712 448715 455723 462728
      464729 467727 470722 471716 471709 468695 467690
 0.50 503990 503972 501953 498933 495913 490886 485869 480856
      475849 467842 458835 453833 450833 441878 434886 429894
      426899 420900 415905 412910 408912 405915 402916 401909
      395899 393896 391895 388897 386905 385911 382914 377917
      373922 368932 363939 357945 354950 353954 351964 346968
      345969 345972 353977 358979 361979 365977 371970 377962
      380959 385955 390949 395941 400933 402930 408929 414927
      420928 424931 425935 425939 428946 433946 436941 438938
      443944 445949 444955 439964 430964 427968 425973 421986
      417996 416001 416006 419006 422003 427996 431992 435989
      438989 440992 442995 446000 450006 452011 454019 453023
      451026 446027 438031 435035 433040 427046 424049 421056
      420068 423072 427076 436075 442075 445078 447081 450086
      451089 450092 449097 450101 452102 456101 458097 458089
      459082 462076 465073 471069 479064 485057 490049 493044
      496037 499025 501015 502005 503990
 0.50 425709 424705 424700 421698 420698 418699 414699 413699
      411700 411701 411705 414708 415709 417710 419711 421712
      423712 425709 425709
 0.50 432092 430088 428084 427082 424082 423084 423088 424089
      427091 429092 430092 432092
 0.50 371802 361795 359786 356782 351780 344781 337787 331790
      328794 326800 326806 329813 327819 330827 334829 340829
      345829 348828 351825 354821 358818 364813 367808 371802
 0.50 344972 344969 341967 338969 338970 336973 335974 333976
      333977 332981 334982 337980 339978 340976 342974 344972
 0.50 284818 281816 277815 275815 274815 272815 270817 271820
      274822 277822 280822 282821 284818
 1.00 454682 452677 448673 446671 443673 439679 441683 443690
      446698 448701 452707 455711 457708 458701 458693 455686
      454682
 1.00 500986 500975 499964 498951 496939 489902 487892 485886
      477868 474862 471858 469857 466863 465871 464877 465888
      461894 456896 452893 453889 454883 453878 453875 455873
      456869 454866 450868 449871 449876 447883 443888 440893
      444896 450898 446911 445920 447927 450935 454938 466939
      469942 470944 467945 459950 456955 451966 450970 451975
      453981 456997 460001 462001 467999 477994 480993 480995
      481000 480004 478011 475018 471024 466029 459038 455043
      450044 448055 444069 445074 450080 453082 454078 453073
      453069 456065 460062 467060 480056 487045 493033 496021
      497005 499994 500986
 1.00 392930 392926 389924 385921 383919 379921 377923 376927
      371936 364944 358948 357952 359956 357963 355969 357973
      362974 369966 376956 379952 382947 385940 389936 392930
 1.00 355809 355808 352806 349808 347812 346816 345817 345820
      347820 349816 349815 350813 353811 355809 355809
 1.00 347791 347790 344791 342793 345793 347791 347791
 1.50 498986 498982 498977 498973 497968 495964 495962 492962
      489964 488965 486967 484970 483971 482976 483980 485983
      485984 487988 488991 489992 491996 494994 496991 497990
      498986
 1.50 488930 487925 487921 484917 483913 485908 485903 484895
      479883 478879 475881 472886 470891 466897 461904 457908
      453914 450915 455925 461930 464931 468930 473927 479927
      480928 480932 486933 488930
 1.50 493019 493012 492010 490007 488008 485010 484015 483020
      482025 479029 473032 470034 467038 468042 473050 475052
      479051 483046 487037 490030 493021 493019
 1.50 468978 468974 466971 463973 462975 461979 461980 461984
      461988 462988 464985 465983 467980 468978
 1.50 385932 385928 381926 379928 377932 374937 372942 370944
      365947 365951 366954 368958 371956 374953 377949 379944
      381939 383936 385932
 2.00 496977 496973 496972 493970 490972 488974 488979 489983
      491985 494987 496982 496980 496977
 2.00 483900 480892 477890 472895 469899 467904 464908 462911
      458916 459921 461924 464926 467925 469922 472917 474914
      477911 481905 483900
 2.00 479037 476036 473037 472038 473039 476041 479040 479037

$$
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