Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190946
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
545 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/1200 UTC THRU JUL 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MIDWEST...

CONVECTION WAS NOT OVERLY WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY...BUT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE HAD LAID THE GROUND WORK FOR A MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
EVENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEWLY ARRIVED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SD/IA/IL. WITH VERY HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ALIGNING WITH THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN THE CONFLUENT
MID LEVEL / 700 MB FLOW TO THE REAR OF A 100-PLUS KNOT UPPER JET
AND THE NORTHWARD RETURNING / SURGING CAPE GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND FANNING OUT /
PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM OUT OF EASTERN NE/SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND
POINTS BEYOND. THE LATITUDE IS ALWAYS A DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST. IN THIS CASE THE CONVECTION SHOULD STRIKE SOME BALANCE
BETWEEN EASTWARD PROPAGATION IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...AND SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION TOWARD THE INFLOW AND CAPE GRADIENT. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH LOCAL OFFICES...WPC KEPT CONTINUITY BY LEANING
TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXPAND THE SWATH AND NUDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WE ALSO
PUSHED HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS POSSIBLE BY 12Z
THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE MODELS WILL NOT QUITE BE FAST ENOUGH WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE A PROGRESSIVE MCS.

WITH A PROGRESSIVE EVENT LIKE THIS THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE BE
TIED MORE TO THE INTENSE SHORT TERM RATES POSSIBLE WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR LATER WED NIGHT OVER PARTS
OF MN/IA/WI AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW VEERS AND BECOMES MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO WHAT SHOULD BE AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.


...SOUTHWEST...

IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL MONSOON DAY. TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE GREATER OUT OVER THE DESERTS AND EXTENDING UP INTO
SOUTHEAST NEVADA / NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED IN THAT AREA OWING TO A WEAKLY
DEFINED TROUGH DRIFTING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL LEND A
LITTLE GREATER ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO FORM
WHEREVER POCKETS OF HEATING / REDUCED CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR IT.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN COLORADO.
MOISTURE DEPTH AND CLOUD BASE INFLOW MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFTER MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN CONSUMED. OVERALL...SOME OF
THE MORE FAVORBALE TIMING OF FEATURES APPEARS TO OCCUR IN AZ/NV/UT
FOR A LITTLE GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS / FLASH FLOODING.



...DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHWEST...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEW FEW DAYS. THE
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THIS MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO UTAH AND
COLORADO...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS TO MOVE
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
REGION. ON DAY 2 (12Z THU-12Z FRI) ONE CONCERN IS OVER PORTIONS OF
UT. IT IS HERE WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD VALUES...WITH AN MCV OR SHORTWAVE
POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INSTABILITY...WITH CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY
LIMITING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISK...WITH POCKETS OF 1-2"
IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE. BY DAY 3 (12Z FRI-12Z SAT) THIS THREAT SHIFTS
EAST INTO CENTRAL CO. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND MCV/VORT SHOULD
SHIFT TOWARDS CO BY THIS TIME. UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA WRF RUNS SHOW
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY THIS TIME AS WELL...AND
ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1-2" IN AN HOUR. THUS OPTED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
INVERTED TROUGH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BOTH DAYS...ASSUMING REMNANT CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT STABILIZE THINGS TOO MUCH. GREATER COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST
NM. SLIGHT RISKS WERE ISSUED COVERING THESE AREAS...WITH POCKETS
OF 1-2" IN AN HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY BOTH DAYS...WITH PWAT
VALUES GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...

CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION BY THIS TIME. THE 0Z
ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN A WELL DEFINED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION THAT TRACKS ACROSS MI AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WITH IT. MEANWHILE THE
GFS AND GFSP ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME
LEANING TOWARDS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BEING
MOST LIKELY. THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO WEAK WITH THIS
WAVE/LOW. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/UKMET MAY VERY WELL BE STRONG WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RESULTING IN THE STRONGER/NORTH TRACK.
FOR NOW PREFER A SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS SOME ENERGY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFTED TRACK...MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS. THIS PREFERRED MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION
IS PROBABLY BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 0Z CMC AND NAM. AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO PORTIONS OF IN/OH...WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWEST
NY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THUS A MARGINAL RISK WILL COVER THIS
AREA.

MEANWHILE A WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED FROM SD INTO IL/IN. MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
US BEING IN BETWEEN WAVES. HOWEVER BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER WAVE
BEGINS TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE THAT THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL END UP OVER SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA...CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING WAVE. RECENT MODEL
TRENDS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THIS REGION AS THE FOCUS FOR
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...AND THUS THE SLIGHT RISK WAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
ENCOMPASS THIS AREA. A BROAD MARGINAL RISK WAS EXTENDED ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
MAY BE LESS IN THESE AREAS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.

DAY 3 (12Z FRI-12Z SAT) SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
JET DYNAMICS ADDING TO THE ASCENT. THUS ANTICIPATE ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2" SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...MOTIONS WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME AREAS OF
REPEAT CONVECTION RESULTING IN ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS. OVERALL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AN INCREASED
FLASH FLOOD RISK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
AXIS...ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION. WPC PREFERENCE FOLLOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH SHIFTED MODEL
CONSENSUS...TRACKING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MN
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN MI. A SLIGHT RISK WAS
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. GIVEN THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SOME CHANCE A MODERATE RISK COULD BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT SHOULD ANTECEDENT RAINFALL END UP SATURATING
THE GROUND. SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ND. SOME FLASH FLOOD RISK LIKELY EXISTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS WELL...HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT AS COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN. THUS FOR NOW WILL JUST STICK WITH A MARGINAL
FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHEAST...

SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL MAINTAIN PW VALUES GREATER THAN
1.75". A MULTI MODEL BLEND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS REGION.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


BURKE/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 493253 494249 493245 490239 488233 485231 481231 473237
      467237 460234 448234 444235 439238 435241 434244 436246
      447252 460257 474260 478260 482261 484259 488257 493253
 0.01 495678 494671 493665 489658 485656 481657 475663 473667
      468669 460671 458672 458674 459682 461686 459691 453697
      451704 454706 452710 449713 447719 445723 443726 439727
      436726 431727 428729 431734 444736 442741 439745 434746
      432749 430754 429758 428762 429768 431771 436771 443766
      445771 447773 451773 453771 455771 455776 454780 452792
      454794 459793 465790 472784 477777 485762 488751 490741
      492731 491721 487711 486702 487696 491687 495678
 0.01 510980 507975 504975 501977 498981 495982 491981 486979
      485975 485970 485950 483940 479934 474931 472930 471925
      469917 468910 469905 472897 473887 472879 471868 469860
      466854 463848 459844 450840 443839 437842 432847 431846
      431841 431831 429824 427819 423819 419820 416822 399840
      384857 378860 372859 369858 367855 365850 367847 372841
      379837 367831 372827 375820 378815 385813 387817 387821
      387827 396826 399820 403811 405814 405817 407820 410812
      413804 416798 420794 423789 419771 417766 414758 411752
      412749 414747 418743 419736 419731 420727 424720 425717
      425710 422708 417710 409721 402730 396734 393736 391739
      389744 388752 386767 384772 380777 375782 374785 375792
      380791 387784 391784 392786 394790 393794 388799 385801
      381802 377806 373812 370815 366813 362817 357823 354826
      351831 347836 345842 347847 347851 345860 345865 346867
      349869 353868 360870 364874 374884 378889 382892 386895
      391899 394904 397904 399902 401894 404892 405895 405898
      404903 405907 406912 408915 414919 418924 425935 428942
      431950 432958 432967 431974 430985 427991 427998 435010
      438013 441015 448012 450010 452011 453018 459034 469061
      471066 474071 478068 481062 483052 484043 487036 495036
      502035 506029 507015 507008 506003 506995 508991 510980
 0.01 458702 456700 455703 454705 456707 457705 457704 458702
 0.01 441098 442092 441087 438084 434084 432082 429078 428075
      429072 432060 431054 429049 426046 424042 425030 423027
      420028 415034 412040 409047 401045 399041 396039 393040
      390043 387047 383049 377053 372058 368063 367067 367073
      362080 356085 355102 337079 324044 319038 314034 310030
      302026 299025 295026 292028 291032 293037 290038 287037
      284036 279036 272039 269045 269048 271051 269053 266051
      261051 257052 250056 247058 247064 251071 255078 260082
      264087 271091 280103 285110 292116 304125 311126 314125
      319126 330128 332129 332131 331137 332142 335146 343151
      346158 352158 355160 359161 366160 372156 376155 381156
      397150 404147 405144 406138 404132 402130 402127 404125
      416113 422106 425103 428103 432107 435106 439103 441098
 0.01 400991 400977 397968 396963 395956 395943 389938 389942
      387947 387953 386959 389968 392977 394986 398993 400991
 0.01 367798 364796 360797 354801 351802 350798 349792 350789
      352783 354780 361774 364769 364765 362760 355761 310811
      302807 300806 303803 305800 306795 306792 305789 302785
      299782 290779 279781 270786 267788 261790 256794 246805
      243808 241813 242824 246826 250824 251829 252832 255833
      258835 261838 264840 269840 279839 286840 291842 293843
      293847 290850 288854 285877 281895 282905 282911 283914
      285926 284936 281946 275954 262980 262986 266988 272989
      277987 279985 278981 277978 278976 281975 288972 289976
      292977 298973 300964 305945 312924 313918 314913 314902
      315892 315881 316870 316858 315848 313842 312835 313830
      314827 316826 318824 322822 324831 326836 330835 338830
      342829 345827 346822 348817 350813 353811 358808 362807
      365803 367798
 0.01 345171 345169 345167 345166 343165 341165 340164 338164
      336164 334163 332163 331163 329163 328163 329164 330166
      332167 334168 335169 337170 339171 340172 342172 344171
      345171
 0.01 348756 347752 346750 343749 341751 338753 337755 336758
      335760 336765 338765 341765 344763 346761 347758 348756
 0.01 324163 324160 322157 319155 317154 314153 312152 310152
      306152 304153 304155 306157 309159 311161 314162 318163
      321164 324163
 0.01 331086 330081 327079 318073 311069 309066 309060 307056
      303053 300051 299056 301058 303063 306072 312078 319083
      322085 325089 328090 331086
 0.01 260013 260004 259000 257996 253992 247988 244987 239987
      237989 236993 236997 238000 244005 246012 246016 248019
      252020 254019 257018 259014 260013
 0.25 498013 499005 498000 493999 490000 487999 483000 482007
      485011 488012 491018 493021 496019 498013 498013
 0.25 477712 476705 472703 469705 466710 464715 462721 459733
      455744 451755 452759 453760 458756 462748 467737 472728
      475723 476717 477712
 0.25 476041 476035 474031 471021 471015 471007 476999 474977
      473959 473952 472947 468938 465930 463918 459905 458883
      457878 455872 450862 446854 444851 442851 439855 440863
      438868 435871 425873 420878 417889 416894 418899 420911
      424919 428926 431932 432938 435946 437957 438968 438975
      436980 434985 433992 434997 436000 440002 444002 451996
      456004 460011 463020 467033 470040 474043 476041
 0.25 411106 411101 409099 406100 403102 400099 399094 399091
      396090 393095 388097 387098 389102 390107 387108 384107
      380105 377107 376112 373118 352117 351124 352128 350132
      347134 346136 347141 351144 355145 359141 363141 366142
      370140 375140 384143 389142 392139 392134 389130 394118
      400113 405112 409109 411106
 0.25 411873 411870 411868 410867 410866 408865 407865 405866
      403868 403869 402871 401873 400876 400877 400878 400879
      402880 404879 406878 407878 407877 409876 409875 411873
      411873
 0.25 399104 397103 395103 396106 397106 398104 399104
 0.25 402072 397067 396063 393060 389060 386062 385066 382067
      380067 378070 376078 376081 379085 382083 384078 387075
      391080 394072 399076 402072
 0.25 343103 344100 344098 343098 343096 342095 340094 338095
      337097 338099 339100 339102 340102 341104 343104 343103
 0.25 327109 327105 325103 321101 313092 310086 307083 303079
      298075 293071 293066 293061 288056 290052 289049 286048
      280046 278046 278049 281053 283055 283058 279062 272061
      267058 262057 257058 255060 255063 258067 262071 268073
      272077 276088 279094 283098 289106 293111 298115 303117
      308116 314118 320117 327109
 0.25 313049 313048 312047 311046 311047 312049 313050 313049
 0.25 305886 301873 303859 300854 294857 296864 294871 291877
      291885 288892 288897 289902 290908 289916 290924 294929
      298926 303920 304913 304903 303899 301897 304890 305886
 0.25 299819 297815 294814 288811 284805 281802 283802 289798
      291795 293790 286789 278790 262796 257799 252804 251809
      253812 260814 269824 269831 272833 277833 283835 287835
      289833 290826 293823 297821 299819
 0.25 251002 250000 249000 248000 249002 251002 251002
 0.50 469991 470981 470972 468952 463940 460923 451891 449886
      445882 441878 433876 426877 422881 420887 421895 423903
      424909 427916 430923 435936 439952 442966 443972 442976
      439983 438993 439997 441999 444997 446994 447986 448981
      450981 453985 459998 462003 465002 469991
 0.50 388123 387116 380112 377119 376124 373127 371128 368125
      365126 362130 362133 363136 365138 368137 373130 377130
      379128 386127 388123
 0.50 320110 319106 315101 312099 309098 305094 301084 291077
      286075 281078 279083 280088 283094 287098 293107 297111
      300113 303112 306108 311110 316113 319112 320110
 0.50 300884 300882 299882 298884 300885 300884
 0.50 299910 299907 299905 298905 297906 296908 296910 297911
      299910 299910
 0.50 286818 281813 279805 272803 266800 262800 259801 254806
      254810 258810 264813 269818 275822 278823 283821 286818
 0.50 280796 279796 277796 277797 279797 280796
 0.50 265064 266062 264061 262061 261061 259061 260063 260064
      262065 264065 265064
 1.00 464976 465963 463957 461952 456930 454920 451908 448900
      443889 438884 434882 428881 425883 424889 426902 428913
      433923 436930 440942 442952 444957 447961 455976 460982
      464976
 1.00 299105 299104 299103 298101 297101 296099 296098 296096
      296095 295094 295092 293091 291092 293093 294094 294096
      294098 294099 295100 296102 296103 297105 298105 299105
      299105
 1.00 276818 275815 273814 273813 271812 270814 271816 272817
      273818 274818 275818 276818
 1.50 461964 457949 455942 454932 450916 447908 443901 440897
      436892 430888 428889 427892 428897 429905 429912 432919
      436926 438931 441940 442947 445956 448962 454966 458968
      461964
 2.00 452935 450925 448919 447919 444916 442911 440907 436904
      434904 431909 432916 435920 439928 442937 443950 447957
      450959 452952 450940 452935
 3.00 444930 443930 443931 444930

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 533190 535178 536167 536155 535150 534146 532143 529141
      524139 510139 500144 495150 490157 489166 488177 488186
      488190 490196 490201 488205 484209 481212 478212 470213
      458214 452215 451217 452222 457225 460227 459231 458235
      459238 464244 474253 479255 481257 489260 496262 501260
      505256 510249 513240 516235 520229 525220 530205 533190
 0.01 512006 510993 508984 502963 498954 493945 489939 486939
      485943 483949 482954 482972 481981 478985 475982 473976
      465959 456940 452930 447924 443922 441919 436910 435906
      436901 439894 442885 447877 457862 459858 460852 462839
      466815 469784 468771 467769 464772 462774 461773 459767
      456755 457750 457743 456737 454735 445736 442733 441728
      437718 434715 433710 433697 434688 435673 436668 435660
      435657 432655 430658 425660 421664 415670 409677 404684
      399692 398702 399709 400712 404721 408728 408732 405737
      403741 404749 402770 394789 393791 391789 387783 385783
      383786 382791 384795 388797 385806 386810 385814 382824
      381828 382832 384841 390861 394870 398877 406899 410910
      414923 417933 419939 419945 422957 423967 423974 421978
      420983 420991 417000 413007 405022 395040 394043 393049
      392055 389057 385060 380061 374061 369060 376051 371050
      367052 360055 357058 359061 360067 361070 370069 369072
      366076 363078 360076 355074 352071 342056 327050 307041
      302040 298043 290048 283051 276055 275060 274065 273078
      272090 272094 274096 282111 287118 290121 296123 302127
      307134 314140 317142 321142 329132 332129 338129 358156
      388149 392149 396146 403139 408134 414128 419126 423126
      432121 439116 446107 447102 447094 451086 456078 461070
      463067 466064 470068 483080 496092 499095 501094 505085
      499029 512006
 0.01 470999 468997 467997 466996 465995 463995 462994 461993
      460992 459993 459996 460998 460001 460003 461005 463006
      465005 466004 467003 468001 470999
 0.01 365847 364838 355839 348842 346844 343845 338849 339858
      342864 345866 350868 353868 355867 358861 362854 365847
 0.01 353773 352766 348770 347772 344772 340768 338761 336750
      332746 325747 280772 274774 267776 259778 255780 242786
      238791 236798 238814 239821 243825 254829 260832 266837
      269841 271843 272848 273864 275902 279915 284925 288931
      292934 291941 289949 286963 284969 284977 285979 288977
      291972 297960 302946 305941 305934 305916 308899 311885
      313870 316856 322842 337825 344814 346807 347804 347798
      353773
 0.01 316809 315807 313807 311807 309807 307806 305806 304806
      302807 301808 302809 304809 306810 308811 310811 311811
      313810 315810 316809
 0.01 294899 294897 294895 294893 293891 291893 290895 290897
      290899 290902 290904 290906 290908 291910 292911 293910
      293908 293906 293904 293901 294899
 0.25 499998 499993 498990 498985 497981 497977 496974 492973
      491975 489980 489985 489990 489995 490998 492001 495002
      498000 499998
 0.25 473987 466978 460966 454956 449942 431929 429930 429935
      430941 430950 429959 428976 427984 426994 429000 429007
      427014 425022 423029 426034 432035 436032 442030 445026
      447018 446007 445992 448984 450976 452970 456972 460977
      463984 469987 470989 473987
 0.25 443779 443772 442766 440762 437761 435758 436753 435746
      434742 430738 426740 421745 419755 419768 418777 413784
      403797 399804 395810 397816 398819 402829 402842 402851
      403872 409889 412901 413903 417905 423910 426909 427904
      427894 425890 424883 420864 418851 419842 420839 423839
      430841 436841 440839 442834 443830 443824 443817 442812
      438804 437799 438794 441786 443779
 0.25 440108 442101 439097 436094 433090 430089 428091 425096
      424103 425108 429108 433108 439108 440108
 0.25 441052 442050 442048 441046 441045 439044 438043 436043
      434043 433044 432045 431047 431049 432051 433052 434052
      435054 437054 439054 441053 441052
 0.25 417719 417714 417710 416705 416700 415696 413694 412697
      411699 411702 410707 409709 409712 408716 410721 411723
      413725 416724 417722 417719
 0.25 411106 412099 410094 406095 403100 400102 399108 396111
      392112 383115 380124 382126 386126 392120 398115 400111
      405109 407110 410108 411106
 0.25 401058 402056 400054 399054 397055 397056 396057 397059
      398059 400058 401058
 0.25 355120 354115 351112 348108 348107 352107 354107 354104
      352101 347099 347092 341085 339081 334078 325075 319074
      313074 303075 291073 287075 284078 283085 284091 285096
      287100 293107 300113 309118 312121 316122 320123 325121
      333119 342115 349120 352122 355120
 0.25 295834 295825 292818 287813 290805 288796 285788 280784
      272783 264785 257789 253794 250802 251808 255814 263825
      275832 280836 286839 294839 295834
 0.50 449961 450955 447949 443942 439942 435944 433954 433968
      433979 432992 435994 439995 441992 443985 446976 448964
      449961
 0.50 437828 436822 434820 427817 424812 425802 425792 423789
      419789 409800 406805 406811 407817 409825 407836 406844
      407850 409849 413830 417825 420823 422823 425831 427834
      430836 433836 435834 437828
 0.50 419884 419881 418879 418878 417877 416875 414873 412873
      411874 410875 410877 410880 410882 411884 411886 411887
      412889 413890 415891 416890 417889 418886 419884
 0.50 408103 409100 409098 408098 407098 406100 406102 407104
      408103
 0.50 342098 342096 340093 339091 337090 335089 333090 333092
      333095 333097 334098 336099 337099 338100 340100 341100
      342098
 0.50 328100 327097 325096 323099 322097 320092 315088 311087
      307083 302081 297083 293085 290089 290096 294100 301106
      308113 315120 319121 323117 325113 325104 325101 328100
 0.50 282804 282799 281796 278793 275792 266794 259797 255801
      253804 254809 258814 265817 272819 277819 278810 282804
 0.50 275824 274823 272822 272824 274824 275824
 1.00 444964 443962 443961 443959 442957 442955 441954 440953
      438952 438954 439957 439959 440961 441964 442965 443964
      444964
 1.00 317112 317111 316110 315108 313108 311108 311107 310106
      309107 310107 311109 313111 313112 315113 316112 317112
 1.00 271804 271802 270801 269800 268799 266799 264799 263800
      261801 259802 257803 256803 256804 258805 259805 261804
      263804 264804 265805 267805 269805 270804 271804


24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 537003 534997 531988 531980 530977 530970 528965 524951
      518937 514926 509918 504910 501906 498905 493901 486899
      478899 470895 465893 460888 457879 456867 453852 450842
      447836 443828 440819 437808 433797 426782 428770 428757
      428755 425755 419752 413751 408756 399766 397780 395784
      393784 390784 389782 392774 395764 394756 392752 384764
      381768 376766 373764 370766 366772 365781 366790 367802
      367807 366811 366818 368820 370820 373817 377820 378826
      379830 380834 383838 386845 388854 389881 391886 394888
      400888 404890 407892 408895 406902 403910 401920 398928
      397937 396943 396953 396966 396970 398973 398977 401988
      397997 392004 390013 390022 390027 388031 387037 386039
      381044 375047 367048 360050 356055 353060 349060 348058
      343052 337046 330042 323038 314034 304033 294033 286034
      282034 280036 276041 274050 273055 272061 272070 273076
      276090 279098 282106 285110 289113 297116 327129 336131
      340132 343134 345136 349138 359139 367140 372143 377144
      379143 384140 395129 403118 412102 413093 414088 414076
      415065 415053 417044 418031 420024 423018 431008 435005
      436001 431997 428993 428989 431988 438985 443984 446984
      447995 450003 455008 466016 478025 482030 487035 493046
      505061 509068 511061 512057 514056 518054 520050 521046
      523043 523037 524023 537003
 0.01 494674 491664 485656 479652 475651 470652 462656 454661
      451664 450668 451676 454681 455694 454699 452706 441718
      446725 449728 453730 459732 463733 469733 472731 475727
      481718 488701 493682 494674
 0.01 344858 344854 342852 338849 331848 330843 327835 326831
      324829 322821 319817 317815 314815 308818 305818 302817
      299813 299808 300801 304787 306780 307774 308767 305763
      291765 276770 263769 257770 254773 249778 246782 240795
      239807 244817 258836 262841 266845 269849 271855 271863
      270872 268888 266913 268917 270918 272919 274917 277918
      277921 277925 279929 279933 281937 285941 292943 291949
      291958 290964 292966 294964 298960 301955 305950 310942
      316931 323919 331898 335883 337874 340869 344858
 0.25 514996 515986 513978 509965 507956 505949 502942 499937
      494933 489929 484929 481932 478937 474942 470947 464947
      459944 457939 457935 456920 456911 454902 450884 446870
      442858 439850 437840 436833 434826 428814 422806 416801
      410800 401803 395805 393811 391813 391816 392821 392831
      392835 393838 397845 399851 401857 404864 409873 413888
      417905 420921 422927 424933 428939 431944 440954 443957
      447961 449968 450975 456987 459994 465997 470999 473006
      483008 487009 490007 494009 500011 506015 508015 507012
      508008 511002 514996
 0.25 404058 404054 401050 396043 389047 387051 386059 386064
      382066 378067 377073 377079 380080 381078 383073 385069
      390070 394068 397078 401077 403070 400065 401062 404058
 0.25 358118 356115 352112 347108 346103 346091 346088 343082
      339080 336080 330079 327083 321081 318078 309070 290068
      285069 282068 281070 285080 286087 288091 292101 298107
      307113 313115 319115 326117 330120 333121 338119 342117
      347121 349124 352126 358118
 0.25 290814 286806 283804 282802 282798 283794 281790 276784
      271784 266786 258790 256793 256799 257805 260809 265815
      272820 279822 284822 288819 290814
 0.50 497993 498988 498985 495978 491969 482964 472960 469959
      464960 462965 461974 465986 467989 473991 478001 482002
      487001 492000 496998 497993
 0.50 452923 452908 451899 448891 440866 438853 433840 428829
      421820 416812 413810 410812 409819 411852 413867 415884
      416891 418897 420904 422912 424924 427930 431935 433940
      436943 449940 451933 452923
 0.50 400074 400072 399070 398071 398074 399074 400074
 0.50 397057 398055 397054 395053 393052 392054 391054 391055
      392057 393059 393060 395060 395059 397058 397057
 0.50 342096 342095 342094 341091 340090 339091 338091 337093
      336095 336097 336098 338099 340100 342098 342096
 0.50 320102 321097 320091 315086 310086 305083 298080 294079
      292083 293092 295095 298098 303103 308108 314107 317109
      319104 320102
 0.50 272812 272810 271809 270808 269806 268804 267802 267800
      266800 264799 263800 263801 262803 263805 263806 264807
      264809 265809 267810 267811 269811 271812 272812
 1.00 488985 487982 485980 482977 481976 478974 477974 474976
      473979 474984 475986 477988 479990 482991 484990 487987
      488985
 1.00 447920 447914 446911 444899 442890 437880 433859 426841
      423835 420832 416833 415837 415842 417853 418860 418865
      418873 419879 421888 424898 427907 431916 433923 435928
      438932 444928 447920
 1.50 442913 441907 440897 438891 435885 431869 428855 426849
      423843 419839 420846 422862 423879 425887 427894 429901
      431907 435911 438918 440918 442913
 2.00 437902 436896 434892 431888 431881 430874 428870 426865
      426872 427876 427883 429888 430895 432900 434903 437902


$$





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