Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160629
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 16/1200 UTC THRU SEP 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHWEST

MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ODILE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA----BRINGING PW ANOMALIES OF 2-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
DURING DAY 1 FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CA--FAR SOUTHERN NV INTO MUCH OF
AZ...NM AND SOUTHWEST TX.  AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT ON TAP FOR THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS.  WHILE THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES STRETCH ACROSS A LARGE
AREA---AS MENTIONED ABOVE---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST AZ---SOUTHERN
NM INTO FAR SW TX WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN END OF THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL---BUT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WERE DEPICTED AS PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FROM SOUTHEAST AZ INTO SOUTHERN NM.  FOR QPF
DETAILS---LEANED CLOSER TO THE HI RES ARW AND NSSL WRF.

CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND NORTH FLORIDA

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL PERSIST DAY 1 IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION
OF ENHANCED UVVS FROM FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS--ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS--- ESPECIALLY FROM COASTAL GA INTO FAR NORTHEAST
FL WHERE THE HI RES RUNS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS.

NORTHEAST

HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH AN AREA OF UVVS QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS---WITH THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM
THIS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 548787 546783 546776 543766 541758 536749 536743 533735
      527719 525715 524709 521702 515698 508698 501699 496703
      492709 487717 485722 482731 478741 477749 474768 473775
      468779 464797 462818 463831 464841 468858 487929 493944
      500960 504961 507964 510970 512978 515986 520002 524009
      530015 532017 534015 535009 534002 531984 530976 527965
      525955 522945 517931 513924 510916 507895 501876 500872
      501868 502865 502859 503857 504852 506844 507838 508833
      511825 516820 520819 523816 530815 535811 538810 541808
      543806 545801 548787
 0.01 496678 495666 491659 486655 481654 476659 471665 468669
      465669 462667 459669 455670 453673 450679 448687 443693
      430701 423711 417717 414719 410721 406722 403724 396726
      394728 392731 389737 386744 386749 388749 395752 403753
      417750 424749 430743 442736 445734 448732 453728 462716
      473706 482698 491687 496678
 0.01 400947 400942 396940 389935 384929 380925 377922 371920
      366927 364932 366936 370945 371949 375952 379954 382954
      393954 398949 400947
 0.01 379080 378077 378073 375065 375055 374051 372050 367048
      360050 356055 353058 347059 344055 344050 343042 341036
      342026 342007 343989 341982 338979 337974 337958 338948
      338943 336939 330923 325912 323905 323895 322888 323884
      325876 325868 326861 329853 334849 341846 345851 348851
      350849 356844 359837 360828 360824 361821 361813 362804
      361796 354783 353774 354767 356760 353757 351756 347749
      343744 338740 336738 331739 327740 324742 318748 301766
      293776 292779 288780 281781 272782 268783 266785 260797
      254800 251802 251808 255816 254825 265888 265908 262923
      261935 260944 259963 254973 243979 238981 235986 233991
      238996 244000 250002 265007 268007 271006 275006 278004
      284001 291997 296995 301997 307001 309008 313021 313032
      311039 308046 303050 296054 288053 270051 263049 260049
      255051 248050 244052 240054 239056 238065 236071 236078
      232093 234099 238104 251110 255116 254120 254125 261139
      263143 266149 275156 292160 301161 306159 312157 319155
      328146 341142 348139 352138 354135 357131 359128 358126
      356119 356111 360103 361101 362095 362090 361088 361083
      365081 369084 373084 379080
 0.25 518719 518716 517715 517714 515712 514712 514711 512712
      511713 511714 509716 509717 508719 508720 508722 508723
      509724 510724 512724 513724 515724 516722 517722 518719
      518719
 0.25 348116 347105 346093 342075 341065 339058 338054 334045
      332042 329040 325040 322042 315049 309055 307058 304061
      301062 295061 283060 274061 266059 261059 257061 254072
      253076 249077 242080 240085 240088 243093 246096 260104
      266109 267114 264117 261119 260124 262131 266140 271147
      278152 286155 307156 310155 313151 317144 321134 323129
      324122 325116 327112 330110 333112 337116 341119 346118
      348116
 0.25 345770 344768 340766 335766 325773 317779 313782 307783
      300785 295787 284793 280796 275797 269799 267803 265808
      267813 268815 264817 263819 264823 264836 265843 267850
      269857 270863 270872 272879 274892 277904 280916 284928
      285942 285955 283960 278963 275970 274976 274979 276981
      278980 279977 283968 287964 290960 297950 303928 304920
      305914 305905 304897 303884 303871 318827 323817 329806
      336785 345770
 0.50 343107 344101 343096 340086 338076 337067 336057 332048
      330044 327044 323050 318058 313066 309068 305067 300066
      295067 287068 289077 288084 292092 292096 291100 286101
      281099 267091 260088 257085 254088 255091 258094 263100
      267106 270110 271114 269118 265119 262121 262125 264133
      268141 273146 281150 291152 303154 308154 311152 315144
      316140 317134 319120 321110 322106 325103 331102 336106
      341109 343107
 0.50 325797 324794 321791 312793 299792 290794 285798 283800
      279801 276801 274804 274809 278814 279816 280821 280825
      278827 273830 272840 274846 275855 275872 278886 283901
      290910 293910 293903 294887 297871 299857 301849 304843
      310833 322810 324807 325802 325797
 1.00 340098 336082 333066 332057 330053 327053 325063 323070
      321073 318075 314076 311075 307073 303074 298078 298084
      300088 303090 306092 305095 303104 298108 295110 290108
      277103 272099 274105 274114 274118 272120 266123 265127
      266131 269137 273143 279146 288149 296151 305151 310147
      311142 312136 311126 312122 314120 318102 322096 327093
      332095 336099 338100 340098
 1.00 307812 306808 303806 298803 291802 287803 284804 288810
      292814 294816 292818 288822 284828 283835 283843 285850
      286864 288864 289860 291855 294841 295833 296824 296819
      297817 304814 307812
 1.50 332084 331077 329071 324074 321080 317083 314082 310084
      312087 315092 317093 320093 322087 328086 331086 332084
 1.50 308147 309139 309132 308126 306122 300115 295113 289112
      280109 277110 276114 276121 268126 269132 271137 274141
      278144 283146 289148 299150 304149 308147
 2.00 308143 308136 308132 304124 298118 291114 285112 280112
      277115 277120 276123 273126 271131 272135 277142 285146
      296149 302149 305147 308143
 3.00 306142 306134 303127 299122 292117 285115 280115 279117
      279124 274131 277138 282143 291146 300147 303146 306142
      306142
 4.00 302144 304136 302129 299124 295121 290118 283117 280123
      278129 277132 277134 280139 285143 291145 298146 302144
 5.00 301141 302137 302133 299129 295124 292121 285119 282124
      280130 279134 280136 284141 289143 296145 301141
 6.00 299141 300135 299131 296128 293124 290121 284122 282126
      281130 281135 284139 287141 291143 296144 299141
 7.00 297139 297135 296130 293125 291123 286122 284125 282130
      281132 283136 286140 291141 296141 297139
 8.00 296136 296133 294130 293128 291125 290124 286124 284126
      284129 282132 283134 285137 288139 290140 291139 294138
      296136
 9.00 293134 293132 292131 292129 291128 291127 289125 288124
      287125 286126 285126 284128 284130 284132 285134 285135
      286136 288137 290137 292136 292135 293134
10.00 290133 290131 289129 289128 288127 287126 287127 285128
      286131 286133 287134 288135 290133

$$





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