Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210930
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 21/1200 UTC THRU MAY 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S...

A RATHER SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL UTAH TO EASTERN WYOMING.
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS GENERALLY INCREASE WITH NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT...AS A NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE UP
THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...OPENING UP DIFLUENT FLOW
OVER NORTHERN ID/MT...AND SLINGING AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE BACK
INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. OUT ALONG THE LEADING FRONTAL
ZONE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
LIFT OUT OF THE U.S. THIS EVENING. A FEW HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN
MT/WY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR BACK UNDERNEATH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ID/MT AND EASTERN
OREGON. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AT VALUES MAINLY UNDER
ONE INCH. WPC USED A BLEND OF OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE WITH THE ECMWF
AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...BEFORE MAKING MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.


...CENTRAL U.S...

DIFFICULT FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE
LIKELY...BOTH ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED...BUT THE INGREDIENTS FOR
LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN THE SAME PLACE AT
THE SAME TIME. EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM SCALE
PROCESSES...MORE-SO THAN USUAL...WHICH TENDS TO LOWER QPF
CONFIDENCE. ON TOP OF THIS...THE CAP WILL BE BUILDING AT THE SAME
TIME THAT MOISTURE DEPTH IS TRYING TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG...AND COULD BE A PRIMARY
DRIVER BEHIND LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY...BUT THERE
COULD BE AREAS IN WHICH THE CAP PREVENTS CONVECTION OR LIMITS ITS
EFFECTIVENESS. FOR THESE REASONS THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS
ARE DISPLAYING A LOT OF SENSITIVITY. SOME...LIKE THE THE NAM CONUS
NEST AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION...WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL WRF PREDICT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WRF-ARW MAY BE
OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY GIVEN THAT
AREA IS DIRECTLY WITHIN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 700-500 MB. WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH THIS LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS...BUT
ODDS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH SEEM MORE LIKELY WITHIN THE DEEPER AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO NEAR LUBBOCK TX. THESE THOUGHTS LINE UP BETTER
WITH THE NSSL WRF...ALTHOUGH WPC TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH
RESPECT TO FORECAST AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE QPF
HERE WAS DERIVED NOT ONLY FROM THE 00Z NSSL WRF...BUT ALSO THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE WRF-NMM AND THE ECMWF.


...EASTERN U.S...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...MAKE THIS A
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST IN THE EAST. THE INHERITED
FORECAST WAS MORE BROAD WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...SO WE ATTEMPTED TO REFINE
EXPECTATIONS USING SOME OF THE DETAIL OF THE ECMWF AND PROBABILITY
FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WHICH ARGUED FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE COASTAL LOW...AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS. STILL...EXPECT WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 2.0 INCH AMOUNTS
THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH HEAVIST OCCURRING FROM
SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE DELMARVA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.



DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHWEST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR SOME INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWS A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS...ONE ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF WESTERN OR/WA...WHERE
SHORTWAVES ROTATING ASHORE AND WEAK ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1". A MORE IMPRESSIVE
MAXIMUM APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
MT. THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT...WHICH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE 1-3" OF
QPF...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE REGION ALSO BECOMES SITUATED IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THUS SEEMS LIKELY THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN
SD/NE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEAN LAYER WINDS ARE PRETTY STRONG OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTING
AN INITIAL QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH AND NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE MEAN FLOW...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AS THE CONVECTION
ORGANIZES IT WILL BEGIN PROPAGATING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOOKING AT
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AROUND 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE...SUGGESTING A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TRY TO KEEP
CONVECTION MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AND IS THUS A NEGATIVE FOR A
POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PARAMETERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BACKBUILDING/TRAINING
WOULD SEEM LIKE AT LEAST A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NE. CORFIDI VECTORS DO BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE
TRENDS AS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION GETS HUNG
UP LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FLOOD THREAT. BUT FOR NOW THE SIGNAL
AMONG THE GUIDANCE SEEMS BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...WITH THE RISK LEVEL BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY A MARGINAL
CATEGORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN ON DAY 2 IS ACROSS TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EVEN LOWER HERE GIVEN
THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING. SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG
THE DRY LINE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS THAT WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THIS BEST POTENTIAL IS...BUT THOUGHT THE 0Z NSSL WRF
AND THE 0Z ECMWF SHOWED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION...DROPPING A
SYSTEM SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAY THEN SEE REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN
THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND ALSO BACK WEST
CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE. THEN DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING ACTIVITY
IMPACTS THE ENVIRONMENT...COULD SEE ANOTHER MCS MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS OF THIS
POTENTIAL BEING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 0Z GFS/UKMET
AND 12Z ECMWF. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE DETAILS
ACROSS TEXAS ON DAY 2. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKE MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
OF CONVECTION GETTING HUNG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE DEPENDING
ON ANY MCS EVOLUTION. NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS TIME TO
PINPOINT AN AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE TIME PERIOD WHEN
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE AVAILABLE.

ON DAY 3 CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FORM ALONG THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  CONVECTION ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES AND
IMPACTS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THUS THE DAY 3 FORECAST IS
GENERALLY OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY QPF DETAILS. BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION FORMS...WITH A MARGINAL
FLOOD RISK LIKELY EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM TX/LA ALL
THE WAY TO MS/WI. BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON THE DETAILS FOR
ANY SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. DID NUDGE WPC QPF A BIT
WESTWARD TO BETTER MATCH RECENT TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.

...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AN
INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE TREND BEING FOR A SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE
TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY....ALLOWING FOR A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO
HOW IT WAS HANDLING THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THE NEW 0Z RUNS LOOKED
MUCH BETTER. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A 0Z ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS
IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME AT THIS TIME AND FALLS CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 546169 547153 549132 550125 551118 552097 552092 550087
      545076 544073 539072 531073 526072 522069 512063 503058
      495051 494041 491036 488033 480028 473026 467025 463026
      457030 454033 450036 445036 442033 437032 429036 422041
      418049 417055 418060 421063 426066 437071 448075 450078
      446081 443084 439085 433080 428079 426078 424075 421074
      415073 409081 401088 391107 389111 390116 397122 398125
      397128 396131 391139 389144 385149 382154 380162 377166
      373168 372180 367179 364180 362184 363188 368195 371199
      372204 369213 370220 374225 378235 382244 387250 397255
      406258 415260 420259 422258 422255 421248 422245 425245
      427245 428242 423239 420239 419237 421236 425238 431235
      432231 434231 439233 441235 439238 436242 439245 451248
      461247 470245 480242 482239 484232 489232 493235 502250
      506253 508255 509252 509249 510244 512239 515234 516224
      514220 514216 516214 520205 521200 524197 525192 527188
      530187 536182 546169
 0.01 515869 514864 514857 510846 507833 505825 505817 505787
      503772 502767 501759 500748 500737 501733 501725 503715
      502707 503702 502690 501684 498681 496676 496670 496665
      495658 492648 488644 484643 479645 475648 469655 466662
      459669 453678 448690 442707 438709 436712 431718 429722
      428716 430706 434699 436688 438674 438669 437662 434654
      431651 427651 422650 417652 408657 385675 374685 362699
      358705 352713 349716 344719 335724 330730 324736 311750
      307756 302762 290774 282782 275782 266779 262778 261779
      256781 254785 252789 252795 250799 249805 245812 247815
      253815 257816 260818 264820 269821 291839 298843 300851
      301862 303869 304876 307878 309876 311871 313867 317864
      319860 317854 318849 318847 321845 326844 330842 332833
      331826 330821 327818 326813 326804 328803 332803 337799
      339796 341795 343797 347802 349805 349808 348811 349815
      351820 352825 349835 350840 352843 359844 361845 361848
      361855 366865 368868 371869 376869 379870 380873 385876
      388874 391870 394865 398858 406845 411838 411835 414837
      416840 419839 424832 437816 438811 438804 433797 432790
      432783 436775 443762 446754 448743 447740 447735 449726
      454710 456705 458700 462691 464680 466678 468683 467688
      465701 464711 462721 462728 462736 461755 461766 459775
      459788 458793 454796 448801 445809 445815 444819 444824
      446831 448834 450836 451834 455830 458826 462834 468841
      471841 474838 478841 480849 486869 489879 493885 495888
      497890 504893 510890 513885 515869
 0.01 491253 491250 491248 491247 489246 488244 486245 485246
      485248 486249 487251 488253 490253 491253
 0.01 433971 431966 428962 425956 421954 415953 412954 409952
      400949 392944 386936 380933 377931 373933 366938 362951
      359961 359965 360967 362972 367979 367982 364980 352980
      341979 335980 330976 323967 317960 314956 312952 308944
      305941 303941 294941 287947 281954 275964 271972 271976
      273978 277981 282981 286980 289981 289987 287991 287998
      288003 293006 297006 300004 304000 304992 301981 300977
      303975 305977 314983 319993 321003 314013 305016 290011
      272001 269999 257994 242991 240000 256009 266010 282018
      296034 306036 315037 325037 336037 341037 345036 353035
      358033 359027 358025 361023 364019 372015 376015 381018
      400014 416015 418015 418012 418006 413994 410989 407986
      400979 393964 405964 409966 414966 418966 421968 426973
      431973 433971
 0.01 417149 417143 416139 412134 407134 405137 405142 399157
      396163 392168 389169 385168 382174 380180 382181 386183
      391189 392191 396193 402197 403199 405196 406177 410171
      410164 411159 413155 415151 417149
 0.01 299863 298858 296854 291850 285851 282853 276857 269863
      265868 263871 261876 263882 268888 272894 272900 271904
      271910 272913 277921 278923 281925 286919 288916 289912
      289900 288889 291881 294874 299863
 0.25 540113 540108 537104 527103 522094 514089 510083 505075
      500070 493064 488056 485051 481047 473043 468042 462042
      455043 454050 447054 442053 441050 436048 430049 428050
      427053 428056 438058 442060 448061 458062 463063 468065
      480073 484076 487080 487084 486086 482089 474091 466097
      460100 462105 464109 467112 469116 470121 468125 463131
      455137 451141 450145 451148 450150 446147 441145 439146
      436150 435155 437165 444171 440176 434178 431174 430171
      428177 424188 422200 426206 441214 446215 445218 446221
      449223 454225 458227 462229 472229 476228 479226 487223
      493224 498231 502230 504222 501210 501201 499196 494187
      490187 487190 483197 481200 477202 470205 462207 456204
      454199 456194 459190 462188 464179 468173 475173 478172
      482173 488180 491184 495182 502176 517168 523163 529159
      533152 536139 538126 540113
 0.25 453098 452096 450096 448096 447097 446099 448101 449101
      451100 452100 453098 453098
 0.25 448109 446104 443102 439099 436096 433094 428093 425096
      425101 428105 431109 435111 439112 441116 445115 447111
      448109
 0.25 425676 424672 422668 419665 416664 406667 400671 394675
      390679 382690 378698 375701 371704 366705 364706 358712
      350721 346725 339729 334735 329743 321756 314768 309780
      309784 305786 300792 307797 310804 314803 316800 315793
      312792 312786 318780 328768 338758 342754 347751 351751
      355752 357763 361770 364773 364775 366782 371786 376789
      380794 381798 379801 375803 372802 369801 364802 362805
      362809 363812 363817 362820 363826 366830 371835 374837
      378834 381825 386820 393816 403807 408804 412804 416802
      421784 427767 429762 425761 421762 415762 411757 408754
      409751 413743 418726 420719 422710 424694 425676
 0.25 407236 408232 408228 406227 403226 401226 398227 396229
      394230 392232 392236 394238 397240 399242 402244 405243
      406239 407236
 0.25 413106 413103 411101 409101 408101 406102 406103 405105
      404107 405109 405110 407111 408111 410110 410109 411108
      412106 413106
 0.25 389986 388984 387981 385980 384979 384978 382977 381979
      380981 381983 382984 383986 384986 385987 387988 388988
      389987 389986
 0.25 345998 346995 344994 342994 340994 339994 337995 336995
      335996 334997 333998 332999 331001 332003 333004 335004
      337003 338002 338001 340000 341000 342999 344999 345998
 0.25 298830 298828 296827 294826 293826 291828 293830 293831
      295831 297832 298830
 0.25 292866 293862 292860 289857 286858 282861 279865 277869
      276873 278878 281880 285878 287875 290870 292866 292866
 0.25 283810 280806 276801 272797 266797 260799 256802 253808
      258811 262813 267812 271814 275815 279814 282813 283810
 0.50 532136 532127 531121 530117 526110 521106 516102 510099
      504094 499092 494096 490101 484100 478102 475104 473106
      473109 474113 489119 497128 498133 501136 501140 498141
      495142 492140 490137 487134 481131 474132 470135 466142
      463151 463161 468165 475166 477164 481164 484163 487159
      490155 492151 494150 499155 505159 510157 512153 514151
      521150 525145 532136
 0.50 491214 492206 491203 488203 481206 476208 470211 463213
      461215 460220 462223 465225 472224 478221 483219 487218
      490216 491214
 0.50 480064 478060 475056 471054 468053 464053 459053 457057
      461059 464060 469062 473064 477066 480064
 0.50 453186 453185 452186 453186 453186
 0.50 451188 451186 450185 449185 448186 447187 447189 447190
      449190 451188 451188
 0.50 443211 445210 447208 445207 443207 442208 440210 441210
      443211
 0.50 437206 437204 435205 434203 434201 434200 432199 430198
      430199 429202 430203 431204 433203 435206 436206 437206
 0.50 420690 418678 415674 411672 407672 402673 395680 390687
      384695 379705 377709 373713 367712 363714 359717 356721
      347726 339733 335740 334745 335749 339750 345748 355745
      359747 361751 362758 364763 369772 373775 377778 383782
      387785 390784 392784 395789 395796 387802 383808 382813
      385813 390811 394808 396803 401800 408796 412786 416778
      415773 412769 405773 401774 398770 398766 400760 403750
      405741 411731 414722 417710 419699 420690
 0.50 290862 288860 287860 285862 283865 282867 281870 280873
      282875 284875 286873 287870 288868 290864 290862
 0.50 275807 275805 274804 272804 271806 272808 273808 274808
      275807
 1.00 407688 406683 404680 402679 396689 393694 389697 385701
      383706 379718 370725 371727 373727 378725 380727 379731
      376737 370761 373767 378769 382770 387769 393759 399749
      402738 407726 410716 409711 407708 405712 402718 397719
      394715 394708 395701 395698 398696 403694 406692 407689
      407688
 1.00 367719 365718 361720 358723 353727 348729 343733 340738
      339742 341744 344745 348744 353740 358737 361733 365728
      367721 367719
 1.50 402730 403726 402724 398726 395729 390732 383738 379746
      376753 375760 376764 379765 383763 389756 394749 396745
      396739 401732 402730
 1.50 358732 358727 356728 353730 351731 348732 346734 343736
      342739 342742 344742 348741 349739 351738 354735 356733
      358732
 2.00 390746 390744 389743 388743 386743 384744 384745 383746
      381748 380750 380752 380753 379755 380756 382756 384756
      385755 387753 389751 390748 390747 390746

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 555061 557052 556045 556035 555028 555020 553013 553003
      552994 552986 550982 550976 547973 534957 531957 527959
      523954 519947 512941 499931 494929 490929 482934 465944
      456949 444949 435950 424951 414951 403953 396955 388956
      371963 367965 362965 355959 354956 349954 346949 343947
      334942 322944 316936 310928 305922 301920 297916 291910
      289907 286902 283894 280885 276877 274874 273868 272842
      275833 278826 281815 283810 286805 292797 298790 310777
      328775 332781 338785 342788 346790 352793 356795 358796
      359799 362801 365800 370798 375797 375801 372806 366815
      364819 362826 367827 369834 370842 374842 379842 382839
      390843 399839 403835 405831 408823 413817 429814 432813
      435809 437804 439801 442796 444791 448782 451777 452772
      454757 457746 459733 465713 472692 477685 480677 481666
      482662 479658 467651 459647 457641 453640 448640 442641
      438640 433640 422642 417646 411649 397660 392662 389665
      391681 395705 396712 398717 399721 403723 410727 416725
      420722 422718 424713 427713 427716 425727 422732 419736
      418742 414746 410750 405749 401750 397749 394751 389751
      381747 373740 374734 377727 380718 383709 385699 385696
      383692 376686 374685 371685 365687 359688 355691 346697
      331711 325717 318724 309739 308744 308748 306757 303756
      298757 288760 268764 264767 258768 252768 247770 245780
      245787 247795 248800 248806 247812 247818 246827 248837
      251841 253847 256851 257853 256856 255866 254872 255878
      254887 256893 256899 258919 260939 261952 265958
 0.01 265958 267961 268963 267965 262970 257974 255977 253980
      255986 255994 254005 256008 258009 263012 268015 272017
      272021 276024 284024 291024 297026 312031 319031 325027
      329026 333027 335028 339028 352026 357025 363023 371023
      377022 391024 398024 403028 408033 410036 410040 406049
      400053 399053 398057 400060 398064 393069 387072 386078
      383085 384088 386090 389089 406070 412066 414066 412061
      423053 435045 438042 440039 438038 435037 433035 431034
      432031 436027 442024 447029 449032 452032 455034 454038
      451046 449053 445060 445063 442065 439067 433068 425066
      421067 418069 414073 410077 404087 402088 401092 401097
      399101 396105 392110 388115 386120 393120 396122 398127
      399129 403130 407131 410129 412128 413132 410139 403141
      395140 394146 394149 395152 400156 404159 406161 409162
      413164 413167 414171 414178 412188 411193 408196 406199
      403202 399206 400213 401218 399223 398226 397231 399237
      404242 405245 402246 399250 392259 394264 397271 402282
      404290 408292 413295 419298 423299 427303 436298 447293
      452292 455290 461288 463286 461283 456274 452267 449264
      451262 455256 461252 468250 471250 473252 480255 481257
      485259 496268 500269 501268 504268 506266 513256 514253
      513250 512245 514242 519241 521239 521234 521230 522224
      526217 529210 533201 538188 543168 547152 548142 550133
      553086 554070 555061
 0.01 533045 533039 531037 527033 521031 515033 510033 505035
      492035 478033 472033 469038 467046 464052 462058 464060
      464062 461067 456071 453075 449080 445083 443090 444093
      447094 452096 459097 463093 471086 476082 481082 484082
      487080 492081 499082 502082 505081 509083 514084 522085
      525086 527083 529075 530066 531050 533045
 0.01 487202 487194 487191 485190 480183 475174 471172 467170
      462171 460173 458176 459179 461183 458188 457192 455197
      453203 454209 456210 458210 462208 466208 474206 481205
      487202
 0.01 458657 458654 457653 456655 456658 458659 458657
 0.01 456677 454674 453676 450682 446688 443692 440697 436702
      435706 438706 443702 447697 450692 453687 455680 456677
 0.01 440772 438767 437763 433763 431766 429774 430780 429784
      425791 421797 419798 419801 420804 424803 425799 430794
      433791 433787 434778 440772
 0.25 539162 541150 542139 542122 540112 536108 530108 526109
      516114 510115 504112 500108 497106 494106 489108 485111
      484113 484118 485125 476128 474130 472134 473138 476141
      479145 481151 481156 480159 482165 488174 492179 495185
      497190 501196 506200 511202 519198 527189 531186 534179
      539162
 0.25 506234 505231 504228 502225 500222 498220 496218 494218
      495221 496224 497226 499229 500232 503235 506234
 0.25 493217 490212 487213 479211 474211 471213 465216 450219
      446219 442219 436221 428223 426229 425234 423239 423244
      423248 424250 432248 438245 445243 452241 460240 465235
      470227 474221 483221 490220 493217
 0.25 509991 509983 507979 500975 493972 487969 484966 479967
      473971 469969 466967 464967 461969 455975 452976 447976
      438976 434971 435966 436962 434961 428959 421963 412963
      407969 402977 400979 397981 394983 391986 388995 389999
      392002 395005 396009 395012 396016 399016 404015 412014
      425021 429020 434018 439014 456013 461013 466015 471022
      473024 475023 478021 485020 487015 490011 495008 491006
      489005 488002 490997 493998 497997 502994 509991
 0.25 472673 472670 471669 469669 469671 468673 468674 468676
      468679 469679 470676 470675 472673 472673
 0.25 471158 471155 470155 469153 467153 465152 464151 463151
      462154 463155 464156 465157 467157 468157 469157 470158
      471158
 0.25 462701 462698 462696 461694 460696 459697 458699 457702
      457703 455705 454708 456709 457708 458707 459706 460704
      462701 462701
 0.25 444669 442663 438658 435655 430654 425654 422657 419661
      417667 410674 407679 406682 409688 413692 415697 419697
      427692 435684 441676 444669
 0.25 449114 448113 447111 446111 445111 444110 443111 443113
      443114 444116 445116 446116 447116 448115 449114
 0.25 402781 403775 402771 399767 393764 390760 380755 369753
      362755 359759 355760 354762 355768 357770 361771 366772
      375778 383785 388789 391789 399785 402781
 0.25 372715 372711 371708 367709 360713 351718 347721 345723
      343729 343733 342739 342744 344748 346752 351752 354750
      361744 367738 370729 370722 371718 372715
 0.25 360003 360994 357987 352978 344967 337956 335955 331954
      327954 324956 321962 320969 323977 322982 321984 317984
      312982 307968 299960 294958 290960 285972 281978 281983
      284986 282987 283989 288993 292998 295002 300005 307008
      313010 323015 330018 338018 350017 353012 356008 360003
 0.25 275795 276793 276791 275789 274788 273787 272786 270787
      270789 270791 270793 270796 270798 270800 270802 270804
      272805 273803 274801 274799 275797 275796 275795
 0.25 266802 265800 264800 263799 261799 259801 257802 256803
      257805 258806 260807 261807 262807 263806 265804 266802
 0.50 538153 537140 535128 530118 526120 525123 521129 518132
      514134 509132 505128 502125 499124 497125 495130 496137
      494138 491134 486131 483130 478131 475134 477139 483147
      485158 493164 497173 503182 512186 518186 522184 527177
      533168 537158 538153
 0.50 471218 470216 468216 467217 467219 467220 469220 471218
 0.50 466222 466221 464220 462219 461219 459220 459221 458222
      457224 458226 460227 461227 463226 464226 465224 465223
      466222
 0.50 460986 454981 447983 438986 431984 416977 409978 406980
      403984 399991 403998 403001 401005 398014 411009 427015
      430016 433015 439010 446007 447002 450000 456993 459991
      460987 460986
 0.50 438670 439666 438663 435661 432661 430662 427666 424669
      422673 418676 418681 421684 424685 430683 433680 435676
      437673 438670
 0.50 384770 385768 384765 383764 382763 381763 380762 379761
      377760 375760 373760 372761 371763 370765 371768 373770
      375771 376771 378771 380771 382770 384770 384770
 0.50 363731 363728 363726 362725 360725 358726 357726 355727
      353728 352728 352730 350731 349733 350736 351736 353737
      354737 356737 358736 360735 361734 362733 363732 363731
 0.50 353007 354004 353001 351998 347993 346983 344976 341967
      338960 334959 330960 328967 330974 333981 333984 331988
      331993 324988 322992 318994 313996 313000 315004 320009
      326012 333012 349013 353007
 1.00 509157 508152 506150 499151 495145 490138 486133 483133
      480135 481140 483143 486149 489152 491152 495152 499154
      505157 509157
 1.00 438002 439000 438997 436996 434996 433996 432997 431997
      429999 428999 427001 427003 427004 428006 429007 430008
      432008 434007 434006 436005 437004 438003 438002
 1.00 420996 420994 419993 417992 416991 415991 414990 412989
      411989 410990 408991 408993 408994 409996 409998 410999
      412999 413999 415000 417999 418999 419998 420996
 1.00 338971 338969 337968 336967 335967 335969 335971 335972
      337972 338971
 1.50 492147 492145 492144 491142 490141 489139 489138 488136
      487136 486135 484135 482135 482138 484140 484141 485143
      486145 487146 488148 489149 491148 492147
 2.00 488144 489142 488141 488139 487138 486137 484137 483138
      484138 485140 486141 487142 488144 488144

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 524147 526129 525122 523117 522112 523106 524091 526059
      527024 527009 528996 528977 528963 527957 527950 527943
      530941 526933 524923 523914 522908 519904 515900 513897
      510895 505893 504887 506881 509876 514868 519860 522855
      520848 510832 509830 507831 504834 497841 486852 472854
      468857 466863 464876 461880 457882 449884 442879 437889
      424904 402905 390906 385904 382904 373904 369902 365902
      347899 342899 338902 334904 329906 321911 316913 311912
      301910 298912 296916 294921 289924 285922 284925 286927
      285930 281932 277933 277939 276947 275952 276957 278961
      280969 284975 287977 288981 293987 298996 303999 309999
      312000 312003 313008 305006 303004 300003 296006 298015
      296016 291015 278014 247997 239994 235994 232997 230001
      231005 238009 254018 270027 289035 295036 299034 306029
      310031 316031 320029 323027 326023 329019 330013 338012
      346009 353006 363005 372001 381998 387998 390002 394010
      397016 398022 401032 399038 397043 388047 386050 386056
      390062 398067 397074 395078 399074 403072 406068 412061
      416058 416052 417045 413047 409049 407051 404051 403047
      404044 406040 408034 407028 404015 403008 403999 407989
      415985 431979 448977 464973 475973 484975 499988 505993
      507995 508998 507001 495017 492021 488025 482032 477040
      475045 475053 468078 468082 466087 464098 459091 456097
      453095 454093 452088 448092 441095 431094 424093 420095
      411098 402102 396108 394110 399111 404112 407115 413122
      414126 413131 412139 408140 400136 398134 398130 400127
      399122 398124 396129 392132 390137 389141
 0.01 389141 387146 386152 384158 382161 377167 374170 370169
      368171 367176 369180 367184 362190 367192 374197 379205
      382211 384214 387213 388208 393208 396210 398215 398218
      396219 393219 386219 385226 387228 389233 392236 402238
      406244 412250 415253 419255 428258 437260 440261 442255
      448249 461244 475240 479238 481236 481232 482229 487229
      491230 500232 502230 503224 505210 511184 517169 522157
      523149 524147
 0.01 480195 480189 479186 474180 470175 467171 464171 461178
      456187 452193 452199 452205 457209 460210 464209 469207
      475204 479197 480195
 0.01 444696 443687 441682 435673 431663 425655 418652 412654
      408657 399660 391666 386668 384671 382672 373678 361691
      357694 355698 348705 344712 342717 337720 333723 333727
      338738 342744 347754 348762 350765 356774 358778 360783
      364793 365800 367804 371808 376810 379814 383814 391812
      399805 403802 405797 415781 419773 421768 422761 423756
      421752 419747 417743 432711 436708 439702 444696
 0.01 434136 436130 436124 434121 427135 421150 419158 417163
      415163 404170 399172 395177 393180 395183 402185 409184
      413179 416172 420166 422163 423159 426160 428158 431149
      433145 430142 433141 434137 434136
 0.01 343180 344175 343173 343169 341167 337167 334166 331164
      329163 327165 327166 330167 334168 335170 339171 340173
      341177 343180 343180
 0.25 506172 507159 506151 502136 496132 489131 482129 475128
      469131 466137 466143 467147 470153 472160 476167 479172
      483178 491188 494195 498197 500195 502191 502187 504176
      506172
 0.25 507854 506851 504855 500862 499865 496868 492870 489868
      484864 479865 477868 476874 476882 469886 466888 465893
      460898 452900 446902 444905 443910 441918 437923 434924
      429924 422923 415924 407928 401930 393930 387931 380934
      373937 366939 358937 350935 336932 329931 323929 315926
      310926 298936 292949 291957 290962 292965 297971 301976
      306981 314983 321986 327989 331990 335989 341987 353981
      361978 367980 380984 385988 392989 400987 406984 418975
      428968 434965 440963 449964 456960 462956 465954 467951
      469949 473948 480948 487945 491941 495933 496924 496917
      498912 497908 493906 503875 507854
 0.25 485884 483884 481883 480883 478884 478885 480885 481885
      483885 485884 485884
 0.25 443225 439223 435225 432225 427225 423227 422231 423234
      426238 431239 435238 436233 437231 439226 443225
 0.25 418228 419223 419218 419215 418212 414212 413214 412216
      410221 410225 410229 412231 414231 417230 418228
 0.25 397768 396766 396765 394765 392764 391764 390764 388763
      386763 385763 384762 383761 382763 383764 384765 384768
      385770 387772 389773 391772 393772 394771 396770 397768
 0.25 385191 386189 386187 386186 385184 384183 383182 381182
      379183 379184 378185 378187 378188 379190 380191 381191
      383192 385191 385191
 0.25 361729 360727 359725 358725 356724 354724 353724 352724
      351726 352728 353730 354730 355732 356732 358734 360735
      360734 361731 361730 361729
 0.50 489149 489144 488142 487138 485136 482134 479134 477135
      477138 478141 480144 481145 484148 486151 489149
 0.50 479917 480906 478899 475897 474894 471893 468895 467898
      467904 467908 466910 463912 460911 450907 448909 447914
      446920 448928 454928 457928 457933 456940 456945 459945
      462942 469931 473927 477922 479917
 0.50 447942 445937 441937 438940 433941 429939 426934 421935
      418938 417942 415945 408942 403941 398943 389941 383942
      379944 376947 373952 371956 370959 371963 375970 391979
      397980 403980 410976 414974 418971 424964 424956 427952
      435949 445949 447942
 0.50 359963 360958 359954 356947 345943 338940 330940 321939
      316938 309939 305940 303942 300949 300954 303956 308958
      313962 323969 335975 341976 344969 351968 357965 359963
 1.00 472910 472907 471907 470908 470910 470912 470915 471915
      471912 472910 472910
 1.00 402956 402954 402952 400951 399952 398953 397954 397956
      397959 398960 400960 401959 402957 402956
 1.00 390959 390956 389954 388954 386954 384955 382955 380956
      379958 380961 381961 382961 384961 386962 387961 388961
      389959 390959
 1.00 336954 336953 335952 334951 332950 330950 328951 327952
      325954 325956 325958 325960 325962 326964 328964 330963
      331962 332962 334960 335958 336956 336955 336954

$$





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