Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 25/1200 UTC THRU AUG 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...EASTERN CO THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHING A LITTLE FASTER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THRU THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.  THRU THE GREAT
LAKES..CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY MORE FAVORABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.  POOLING OF
HIGHER PWS..NEAR 1.75 INCHES..WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES..BUT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HERE SHOULD KEEP AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS..MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD ENHANCE/INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET..WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO POOLING OF PWS TO NEAR OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM PARTS OF NE INTO
WESTERN IA ON MONDAY NIGHT..AND STUCK WITH THIS SCENARIO.  AND
FINALLY..SOME IMPROVING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN CO
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD TRIGGER ENHANCED
CONVECTION HERE..WITH SOME AREAL AVERAGE GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH
TOTALS LIKELY.


...GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...

THE 110+KT UPPER JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME..ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF..WILL DIG THIS TROF INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN DURING THE
PERIOD.  BROADENING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH..SO KEPT AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  DOWN IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN..HIGHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY..PWS ABOVE 1.50
INCHES..ALONG WITH A WEAK H5 S/WV LIFTING INTO THE REGION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE..WILL LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED AND
HEAVIER CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NM.  HERE..SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINS LIKELY IN THE MORE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN.



...CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FL PENINSULA...

AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION..ACCOMPANIED BY A SLUG OF HIGHER PWS..NEAR 2.25
INCHES..WILL TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING..CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND SOUTHERN LA.  AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE..BUT WITH ISOLATED 1-2 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE.  IN FL..HIGHER MOISTURE BEING PUSHED SOUTH AND
WEST THRU THE PENINSULA ON A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE/BACKSIDE OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC H5 TROF..WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THRU MUCH OF THE PENINSULA..BUT WITH ENHANCED ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.  THE MODEL QPFS
GENERALLY AGREED ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER RAINS THRU THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA..AND FOLLOWED THIS IDEA.

TERRY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 566916 566902 564892 561862 557832 556828 555820 552810
      545784 539777 537775 534773 529771 525772 519774 518776
      515777 506784 498791 487802 475813 471817 468815 465812
      462811 459815 458820 456826 453825 444822 439822 436824
      428831 423838 417845 414858 410887 405929 400936 397948
      396953 396961 396967 394971 390973 387977 379982 365990
      356994 348999 342002 339007 337013 334018 325028 319034
      317037 315039 312038 308036 304038 301039 302042 302045
      300049 295057 294060 290060 285060 274060 253049 247043
      240043 236044 233047 229050 228053 229057 231065 233067
      232069 231074 233078 236085 241092 247099 258111 265117
      274121 286124 297123 306128 311128 315130 322127 326130
      331131 340132 346136 348139 352138 362140 368140 371138
      375137 381138 385138 390141 392146 391154 392160 395163
      398164 401163 403161 404165 407170 408174 409181 408190
      406193 405199 409202 412203 413201 415187 422183 428179
      434176 437172 437169 438164 441167 445174 450176 454179
      457182 461183 465181 465178 462177 460174 457169 460155
      464154 466150 464139 466131 465124 460120 460113 463111
      465105 465097 462092 457093 451088 453082 453075 453071
      452065 449063 447057 448054 446051 444048 441043 440038
      437028 435025 431026 430019 431012 432007 433999 436990
      438983 438976 439962 440944 440933 442923 446916 451910
      458901 471888 475884 479881 489879 493877 498876 504875
      508877 513879 516888 516897 513903 500919 495927 492939
      492943 494947 497952 500956 500960 499964 497974 492999
      494023 497026 500030 504032 509033 519028 522025 526021
      531012 533007 536002 541995 547987 550985 552980 556968
 0.01 556968 556967 557966 557963 558961 559960 559958 559956
      560955 560952 561951 562949 563947 563944 563941 563938
      564936 564935 564933 565930 565927 565924 565922 565919
      565916 566916
 0.01 391838 390834 387833 378834 372835 368837 364838 362841
      359845 358851 352857 345863 341866 339868 335869 330872
      325873 320874 310872 304868 299861 294853 292848 291842
      297832 307822 310819 313817 320816 324814 325808 325805
      327801 334794 338786 343781 347773 351766 356758 355752
      352749 350747 346748 342751 330766 326771 321777 316784
      309790 299793 293794 287794 279792 272792 267791 262788
      256788 253790 239799 235807 234812 234819 236830 238836
      240840 247854 253873 256883 258891 258897 259907 260921
      262929 265936 269944 274951 281956 292959 302960 312960
      319958 323951 321943 316934 331922 339917 344908 356876
      362868 369865 374860 376856 378851 381848 388843 391838
 0.01 382092 380087 378084 374082 370078 365081 363083 361085
      362087 364090 363092 360096 352098 349099 348104 349109
      348114 345119 344123 348124 355113 360111 364111 367114
      371114 373113 376111 378108 380106 377103 374102 374100
      380096 382092
 0.01 383035 383029 382022 382017 379017 375019 370021 368023
      364026 363028 364031 366036 366041 371041 374040 378039
      382037 383035
 0.25 558905 557895 556884 553862 549844 544825 540819 537821
      536825 533835 530841 529844 529849 531856 537875 539883
      540894 540904 538915 528949 523962 515976 512983 513989
      516991 521990 524989 529985 539977 543973 547965 550957
      552950 555938 556927 558905
 0.25 485844 484839 480836 472830 467830 462832 454838 445843
      439851 432858 426869 423877 424893 425908 427914 429916
      435908 439897 442884 443868 449862 458855 465850 468848
      471848 478850 482849 485844
 0.25 480862 479859 475859 470862 467866 462871 459874 455879
      454883 456886 461883 464880 469876 473872 477867 480862
 0.25 450119 451114 449109 445108 443111 440113 437112 437109
      439105 441102 440098 433092 428092 420098 416102 410108
      406114 405117 406119 411122 418124 423125 427122 428120
      432119 439124 439130 439136 436141 436148 438151 441153
      444149 444145 444139 445133 448124 450119
 0.25 422155 424150 424146 423141 423138 422136 419133 417135
      417137 416142 416146 415151 416156 418158 419159 421157
      422155
 0.25 430954 430947 429941 426936 424934 421935 416943 412954
      408965 402975 398984 396990 395998 397010 397018 396027
      394033 392037 392046 394050 399052 403051 410050 415048
      415043 413040 409035 408028 409021 411016 416006 420995
      424982 426972 429957 430954
 0.25 355062 356057 353055 343055 339056 338058 337065 330064
      325065 322067 319070 316073 310081 307082 304081 300078
      293075 282074 276071 271069 263064 256060 248056 242055
      239055 238058 239062 242067 247072 253079 267093 277105
      284110 296114 305119 310122 316122 321120 326122 332123
      336123 339120 340114 337110 329102 324099 322094 323091
      330090 334094 337097 343096 348091 349087 349084 347080
      343077 341072 341068 344065 352065 355062
 0.25 343766 344763 343763 341764 340766 339766 338768 338769
      337771 336771 337773 338772 340771 340770 342769 342768
      343766 343766
 0.25 330896 329892 326889 319885 310882 303877 279854 272851
      270848 268843 268841 272840 273836 273832 268826 263819
      259810 257799 254796 251798 246805 242809 242813 243823
      246831 250839 256846 261854 270865 272870 273875 274888
      272894 273906 273916 274921 275926 279932 285938 289941
      293942 298941 299936 299932 299929 301927 305920 308916
      312913 319908 325902 330896
 0.50 459847 459844 458844 456843 454845 453847 454850 455850
      456850 456849 458848 459847
 0.50 437875 437873 435869 432871 432875 431878 431883 430888
      430890 430895 431899 433897 434895 436890 436887 437883
      437878 437875
 0.50 425966 426959 426952 424947 420947 418950 416956 413966
      409975 405982 403987 403993 404997 407000 410000 413998
      416994 419989 421980 424968 425966
 0.50 404042 403039 403037 401036 400036 399037 399039 399041
      399042 401043 403043 404042
 0.50 351059 350059 348059 348060 350060 351059
 0.50 342091 339087 337084 336079 334075 329074 325076 321077
      318079 318082 320084 323083 328085 332086 336088 338091
      342091
 0.50 313118 315107 312098 311090 304085 297081 294082 290085
      278078 263072 256069 256072 259076 265080 272083 273086
      271089 275092 280094 287097 292102 298107 306110 309117
      311120 313118
 0.50 313901 313897 311894 305892 298882 294877 289872 284870
      281870 281875 282881 283891 281898 280905 281913 281921
      283925 288930 292929 292926 293921 295919 304911 309907
      313901 313901
 1.00 418976 421966 422961 420960 419962 417967 416972 415976
      417978 418976

$$





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