Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220617
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 22/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPR TROF AFFECTING THE NW U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF THAT IS FCST TO PUSH ACRS THE PAC NW AND ACRS
THE CNTL/NRN GT BASIN REGION TUES NIGHT.   THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPR TROF FAVORS A PREDOMINANTLY POST FRONTAL PCPN EVENT..WITH
INCREASINGLY NEG TILTED TROF AXIS FAVORING INCREASING UPR
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUES AND TUES
NIGHT ANS MAIN S/WV ENERGY LIFTS NEWD FROM THE CNTL GT BASIN
REGION.  GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD MODEL TIMING AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD CONTINUITY WITH SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.  EXPECT SOME .50 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ACRS THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH RAPIDLY COLLAPSING
THICKNESSES FAVORING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN.  WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EVENT DVLPG TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
WEAK UPSTREAM S/WV WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE WA/OREGON COASTAL
RANGES AND OLYMPICS WITH LIGHT TO MDT PCPN WHERE AGAIN CONTINUITY
WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.


...NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE SE U.S...
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE AS WELL
WITH AMPLIFYING S/WV TROF SHARPENING THROUGH THE GT LAKES AND
WEAKER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/SHEAR ACRS THE SE U.S.  BETTER
DYNAMICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED ACRS THE NE WITH STGR HEIGHT FALLS
AND SLOW DEEPENING OF ASSOCD SFC WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS NRN NY STATE TOWARD THE SRN MAINE COAST BY WED MRNG. HERE A
BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS AMOUNTS SEEMED REASONABLE THOUGH DID EXTEND
SOME .50 INCH AMOUNTS SWD FROM VT/NH INTO ERN NY/WRN MA WITH POTNL
FOR SOME POTNL WEAK INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY NWD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTN..JUST NORTH OF STGR VORT ENERGY.   FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH..QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF THE HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS THRU
THE MID ATLC REGION.  00Z WRF ARW/NMM RUNS HOWEVER DID TREND
SOMEWHAT DRIER..AND WLY 85H FLOW GENLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES EAST OF THE APLCNS IN THE ABSENCE OF
STG FORCING ALOFT...SO SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCTD IN
NATURE SOUTH OF THE MD/PA LINE...SO ENDED UP DISCOUNTING THE
HEAVIER NMM/ARW AMOUNTS THE MIDATL/SE.

...NRN PLAINS...
AREA OF WAA SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO THE NORTH OF WARM
FRONT AND LEE LOW FORMING ACRS THE NRN HI PLAINS TUES NIGHT UNDER
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND NARROW RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR
DVLPG NWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS.  NO REAL CHANGE IN MODEL PLACEMENT
IN WHERE STORMS WILL DVLP WITH THE GFS/NAM GENL EAST OF THE CAN
GEM/UKMET AND 12Z EC.  WITH ONLY MINOR MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES
HERE..DID NOT HAVE A STG MODEL PREFERENCE...SO KEPT CONTINUITY
UNTIL THOSE ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.


SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 554144 543119 536105 534098 532092 521065 507039 501028
      498021 496013 492996 486985 483978 480972 474961 468958
      461955 455953 447954 437958 428966 416973 413973 410975
      404975 400975 397977 394977 393979 386992 385995 387997
      393000 398002 400003 400006 397009 393013 388015 383015
      380017 376017 370020 364023 354027 348030 347034 344036
      335043 329045 321042 313034 305027 303025 299024 295027
      294036 297042 306051 311055 317059 325060 331060 337057
      344056 350055 354054 357056 362058 364061 362064 362070
      365075 372078 376083 382086 387089 389091 393092 396092
      399090 402090 404094 403103 400106 397107 393112 388116
      387127 392127 396129 400133 408134 410136 407137 401138
      398139 395141 392146 392174 401184 401189 399192 394195
      388195 383192 373185 367185 363185 362188 370197 376201
      381206 385212 390214 394216 397219 399221 402222 410225
      406231 398238 397241 398243 402247 406253 407255 410257
      416263 418268 423273 427278 431283 436284 439283 444285
      451284 455278 458272 466263 470264 473266 477269 487279
      492284 495287 497286 503286 509284 513279 516273 519265
      520258 519253 516238 517231 522230 528230 533228
 0.01 520683 518666 513654 510647 507641 501632 499627 497627
      492627 480630 457644 437655 423660 411664 370690 355704
      339720 334725 331731 323738 317748 313759 310764 309768
      306772 308780 309786 311788 315788 317789 318794 317800
      314814 312826 308854 297956 297964 299967 303969 308966
      314958 320947 330926 335915 338908 339902 346895 352886
      370872 378866 380861 383857 386850 390845 396842 404841
      411835 419828 426818 433811 441803 445798 449797 464817
      465834 465839 464841 464849 465854 466856 470858 477858
      480857 483859 491866 494868 497868 502868 504863 504854
      503842 503837 501834 500824 499819 497801 496780 498766
      500757 501749 503736 504729 505720 507714 511708 514704
      517700 517697 520683
 0.01 469070 466050 461031 451020 435014 421008 419008 417010
      418015 418020 416023 411028 403029 399030 395030 387032
      379033 375040 375043 378044 383044 392045 399044 408045
      411054 411057 414061 417066 418073 416077 411080 408081
      409083 411087 414094 413101 415105 422103 425101 425093
      423090 424085 429086 432089 439091 447091 450089 449083
      444077 443074 443072 448072 451075 455077 460076 469070
 0.01 373774 373771 371768 367771 365775 363780 361783 358788
      357790 353793 353796 356796 359794 362791 366788 367784
      370779 372776 373774
 0.25 536180 537171 536163 532151 527139 522126 519114 513102
      509095 506091 501089 494087 489088 484089 475094 466099
      461101 455101 451100 447102 440101 435100 432102 430108
      425112 419113 413112 408110 406110 404112 402114 403118
      406122 412123 418122 424120 427117 433117 436117 439120
      441125 444131 445133 445137 442135 438136 434140 426145
      425149 426152 429156 431161 435166 442168 446173 447178
      446183 448185 452187 456186 461183 464179 464166 468168
      472171 472176 473180 476184 477192 482196 492202 501200
      508202 512205 518209 521210 525207 529199 529194 528185
      534184 536180
 0.25 504273 493243 488238 483236 481233 477228 477224 481222
      488223 493227 497226 498223 498217 497213 493209 487210
      481209 474211 470216 464213 456213 449214 443215 437216
      431220 428222 427224 428227 429230 429233 426235 422236
      416238 416244 420246 436250 443250 449249 462245 466246
      470247 477252 495276 498278 502277 504273
 0.25 509159 508148 504139 501136 496134 489139 482143 475146
      474150 475155 478159 481161 491163 498161 503160 507161
      509159
 0.25 502679 501668 499660 494653 490650 484651 479654 475659
      467664 464668 459672 452676 446679 441682 436688 431692
      426699 428713 421717 418722 413734 409742 404747 401752
      398757 398762 401764 405763 406765 406773 404781 401787
      396792 388801 379810 358827 354830 351836 348842 348847
      351848 357843 361839 368827 376818 380814 385813 392810
      396814 399816 402816 406813 406808 407801 409795 412793
      416792 420794 425791 429786 432778 436773 439770 440772
      447773 450774 454773 457768 458763 462761 467757 477748
      482743 484737 489723 495710 497703 500694 501686 502679
 0.25 474227 473226 472225 470225 470227 470228 471229 472229
      473227 474227
 0.25 477994 476989 475984 473979 471974 469972 465969 461969
      459974 461979 463984 465989 467992 470996 473997 477995
      477994
 0.25 315854 316851 314851 314852 313854 315855 315854
 0.50 519186 519183 518179 516177 513175 510173 508175 507179
      507184 509186 512188 514189 517191 518188 519186
 0.50 495262 496257 495254 493251 492248 490245 488243 485243
      484245 484248 485251 487254 489257 491260 492262 495262
 0.50 495686 493674 492668 490665 483666 476670 470673 464679
      461686 461698 460706 456714 452720 458724 462730 464734
      464737 463741 465744 471738 476735 481729 484721 486712
      489704 492697 493691 495686
 0.50 491186 491183 492181 492176 491173 489172 486172 484174
      483177 483180 484184 485187 487188 489188 491186
 0.50 482244 482242 480237 479234 478233 475232 473232 471234
      468237 468238 471241 473243 474245 477246 480246 482244
 0.50 495115 495110 494107 490106 483106 476106 471108 468112
      472117 477120 483123 488124 492121 495115
 0.50 463226 464220 461216 456216 452217 449218 445218 440219
      437223 439225 442227 447228 451227 454228 459229 463226
      463226
 0.50 460240 460235 455234 452235 448236 444237 441239 438241
      436243 441245 445244 449244 454243 457242 460240
 0.50 462143 461143 460143 458140 458139 457138 458135 457134
      455134 454134 453134 452136 451136 451139 453141 454142
      454143 456143 458143 459143 461144 462143
 0.50 455179 456177 455174 454173 454171 453170 452169 450168
      449170 449173 449174 449175 450178 452180 454181 455179
 0.50 461111 462108 459107 454107 451109 445108 441108 443113
      446116 448120 451122 455122 457118 459112 461111
 0.50 452723 450719 446717 440718 433721 426724 422731 419740
      425741 430739 434734 441730 448727 452723
 0.50 449160 450155 447151 444147 442144 439140 436143 434148
      435152 436158 439161 444162 447162 449160
 0.50 424749 424746 424744 423744 422746 422747 421749 422751
      423751 424749 424749

$$





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