Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 151852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 16/0000 UTC THRU APR 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...EASTERN U.S....

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASOCTD WITH THE
UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ADVANCING EAST.  THIS TROF
SHOULD SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RNFL EVENT ACROSS THE ERN
U.S.. INCRSG JET DYNAMICS AND STG HGT FALLS HAS TAPPED DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY A PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME IN
EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES BEING DRAWN INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND BY H85 FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 55 KTS.

MODEL QPF WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS.  STAYED CLOSEST TO THE 15/00Z ECMWF AND
15/12Z GEM REGIONAL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE PCPN EVENT.
THESE MODELS TENDED TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE PW AXIS AND
MASS FIELDS...AND SINCE THESE MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SUPPORT OF
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

VERY PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW WILL BRING ONE SHRTWV FM PAC NW TO THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE PD ACCOMPANIED WITH GNLY LGT PCPN
TOTALS..WITH E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES SEEING TOTALS ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW.  WAA PATTERN SETS OVR THE PAC NW DURING THE 2ND HALF
OF THE PD AS STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS..A WEAK IMPULSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE TO INCREASE SHWR ACTIVITY.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE TROF WHICH EJECTS FROM THE PAC NW AND THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE TROF AND SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FROM
THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 TO 90 KT JET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
PCPN SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST.  THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN TERMS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS TENDED TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WE FELT ITS PCPN AMOUNTS
LOOKED TOO LIGHT IN FACE OF THE MESOSCALE FORCING.  GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS COMING OUT OF CANADA...REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK DISCUSSION AND FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOW/ICE
RELATED HAZARDS IN THIS AREA.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 543187 544177 543173 538161 529143 524131 518121 514116
      511115 509112 503111 500110 498108 495107 493104 490100
      486089 483084 482078 479069 476064 471065 468060 465057
      465052 461041 461035 462033 464026 466021 469021 474022
      486023 502034 506032 507028 506021 503012 498002 495995
      492992 489987 485984 483978 483969 482954 480942 478934
      478923 481907 484895 485886 485877 484859 481846 479839
      477837 469833 462834 459839 453850 450861 446877 440902
      436913 433923 431939 431948 432955 434962 435971 438983
      437990 435995 429003 426007 425013 421024 423032 423038
      427044 429049 431056 432063 432067 431070 431075 429081
      425079 423079 422082 420088 422093 425097 427100 426102
      423102 421107 425111 429115 429122 434119 436115 440116
      444120 446133 447140 447148 446156 446162 447167 446172
      441184 442191 444194 447195 453196 458192 463181 466176
      470174 475173 481173 491177 494179 498183 501187 504192
      509199 514200 519200 523195 527192 531195 539197 543187
 0.01 509294 511284 512276 512266 510260 509253 506247 504241
      499236 498229 498223 497213 496209 493207 481204 475205
      469207 466210 460209 456213 451215 441218 438218 436220
      437227 439233 436238 434241 436243 443245 455250 461253
      465257 474265 478270 481275 488286 494290 498291 504295
      509294
 0.01 512683 510671 508665 507659 504648 500645 492642 485637
      479632 472629 464629 455632 442641 410663 382680 373685
      367690 358695 351701 339711 329722 317735 312754 297761
      283768 268778 261782 255789 255794 251796 245801 240806
      236811 235816 235819 238822 244822 249816 255810 262806
      268805 272806 289806 297807 307806 320804 325803 329801
      339800 347797 360791 379783 395774 410767 425761 447756
      456753 466750 469747 473746 477745 480742 491732 498726
      501722 503718 507709 512699 512691 512683
 0.01 419166 420159 421152 421145 420142 416143 412145 408145
      405146 404153 406157 409155 413158 413165 415167 419166
      419166
 0.01 415120 414111 412109 411106 410101 408098 405100 404104
      401106 398105 395103 395106 396109 395110 391112 382115
      379117 378120 379122 384124 388122 395119 400119 404123
      406123 409120 415120
 0.01 415073 415070 413067 416064 415062 410058 402054 399053
      398049 396041 390038 382039 375040 372042 369046 368049
      369052 375055 376061 374064 371066 371069 375075 375080
      379083 385084 388083 393084 397089 398089 400085 405080
      410075 415073
 0.25 522171 521165 521160 520154 518149 511143 502137 494132
      487123 480116 478109 477103 473093 469088 462088 458090
      453090 450090 449093 450097 462113 466116 468121 471135
      472139 477141 482143 486146 495152 499155 505158 510166
      514169 520171 522171
 0.25 517182 516181 514181 513181 514183 516183 517182
 0.25 493264 493256 492252 489248 486245 475230 474224 477222
      486221 489218 488214 484210 481208 475210 467213 452218
      448220 445221 443223 444225 448225 451225 455226 459229
      459232 455234 454236 454238 464243 471247 479254 485259
      488263 491265 493264
 0.25 492684 492679 491675 489669 484659 477648 473642 468639
      464640 458642 448647 438654 428662 412676 391691 375703
      354719 346726 341733 332743 326753 320762 314769 305777
      305780 306782 311785 322786 333786 340785 349784 361779
      370774 380768 390762 400753 409748 417743 429738 443732
      454728 463723 481707 486702 488697 491690 492684
 0.25 471161 472156 471153 469150 467149 466149 463151 462153
      462156 461158 461163 461166 463166 466165 468164 470163
      471161
 0.25 460178 460175 460173 458172 456173 455173 453172 452173
      451175 451176 452178 454178 454179 455181 457181 459180
      460178
 0.25 472927 472917 471905 470895 468885 466881 463879 459880
      456883 453888 449896 446916 444937 444948 445959 447968
      449971 454972 466966 468963 468958 469947 471938 472927
 0.25 453083 454078 453073 452071 450069 448067 447065 445061
      443062 442065 440069 439072 440074 442077 444079 446081
      447083 451085 453083
 0.25 448048 448044 448041 448036 447033 445031 443031 440031
      437033 436035 436038 437043 439045 441048 443049 444052
      446051 448048
 0.50 513155 508149 501146 495143 491137 485131 480127 477127
      476130 481135 484138 487141 491147 495147 498149 505153
      512155 513155
 0.50 484217 482212 477211 474212 470214 466215 463218 460220
      462223 465223 469222 473220 476219 481218 484217
 0.50 478243 477240 477239 476237 475237 474236 473237 472238
      472239 473240 475242 476243 478244 478243
 0.50 479686 479678 477671 475668 474661 472655 470650 466646
      461646 451651 444656 429668 416681 401693 386703 377708
      373712 370716 344741 339747 336755 333766 333771 337772
      344775 353775 363772 373768 386758 401746 409740 416736
      434726 449718 458712 466705 473697 477691 479686
 0.50 473108 474106 473104 473103 472101 472099 472098 471096
      470095 469093 467094 466095 466097 465099 465100 465102
      465105 466107 467110 467111 469112 471111 472111 473110
      473108
 0.50 467932 468925 468917 466905 462896 458895 456898 453908
      452923 450935 450945 454955 457954 461952 464942 467932
 1.00 467672 467666 465660 461657 457656 453658 446662 436671
      426684 416693 410699 402703 390710 385715 380722 374726
      370732 363744 354755 355762 358763 367759 377751 391741
      401733 407728 414725 427717 433712 439707 444702 449697
      454691 459684 464679 467672
 1.50 461666 460664 457664 453666 452667 449669 447671 446674
      444676 446676 450676 453675 455673 458671 459669 461666
 1.50 413713 412711 410712 409712 407713 405713 404715 403715
      402716 401718 400718 401719 403720 404719 406718 408718
      409717 411716 412713 413713

$$





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