Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 282034
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 29/0000 UTC THRU FEB 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE LOWER 48
STATES THIS PD.

GT LAKES/UPR MS VALLEY...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACRS PARTS OF THE UPR MIDWEST/GT
LAKES REGION AS WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACRS SCNTL CANADA.
 MAIN LIFT IS FCST TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE LAKES WITH SOME .10 INCH
LIQUID EQUIVS WILL BE PSBL OVER NE MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. IN LINE
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.  ALSO INDICATED ISOLATED AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES AS A BIT MORE
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CNTL ROCKIES/WASATCH...
LIGHT HIER ELEV SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY WEAK S/WV TRACKING
THROUGH PARTS OF ERN ID/WY/UT/CO AS SYSTEM IS GENLY WEAK WITH
LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH.

SW STATES...
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE BREAKING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON THU AFTN OVER
THE SW AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MAKES ITS WAY INLAND.  THIS
RESULTS IN INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT BUT IT SHOULD HAPPEN OVER AN
AIRMASS WHERE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 0.50 INCHES.

WA STATE...
VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WRN WA/NW OR AS VERY WEAK S/WV IS FCST TO SLOWLY
WORK EWD TO THE COAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...ONE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND
THE OTHER OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SEPARATE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MERGE
WITH AND OVERWHELM THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
TROUGH WITH A DISTINCT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST COAST.

AS IT DOES SO...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ONE CENTER WILL
MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW YORK WHILE A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AS
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH.  INITIALLY AN AREA
OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY...THE AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
COLDER AIR THAT APPEARS TO COOL ADDITIONALLY AS THE NEW SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR LONG ISLAND. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SEE THE HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

QPF VALUES OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON DAY 2/THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A MAXIMUM EXCEEDING .5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND OCCLUDE ON DAY 3/FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OF .5 INCHES AND GREATER
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MAINE.

A GENERAL COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE MEANS WERE USED
TO UPDATE THE QPF.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A POORLY ORGANIZED TROUGH PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WHILE IMPULSES FROM THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD ON DAY 3.  THERE ARE SOME
GENERAL SYSTEMATIC MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS RUNS
VERSUS THE ECMWF/EURO ENSEMBLES IN THAT THERE WAS A MORE NORTHWARD
ADVANCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
ECMWF VS THE GFS.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF
APPEARED TO MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/GEFS RUNS WERE SHOWING...
WHICH IS KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ON DAY 2 WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.

SIGNIFICANT QPF OF GREATER THAN .5 TO OVER 1 INCH WAS FORECAST
OVER ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. BY DAY 3...THE QPF GREATER THAN .5
INCHES COVERED CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRL TEXAS.

AGAIN...USED THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS TO HELP
FINE TUNE THE QPF DISTRIBUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF
LOOKED MORE LIKE THE GFS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER ON DAY 3.

BURKE/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 534859 533840 531824 529818 529812 525799 521791 520777
      520770 520762 521750 520741 518734 517725 515719 514714
      510710 507709 502709 493711 488713 485715 473728 470732
      465735 460738 454739 443741 435738 432737 429739 426741
      425745 423756 420761 417763 404765 400765 393765 392764
      389767 386773 384777 375791 367806 350845 349848 348854
      348863 350868 352871 354883 360890 366890 371887 374885
      377884 380882 383884 384886 382888 376895 372902 376904
      380903 388899 396894 401894 405897 411903 414902 418898
      425895 431892 435889 440887 451887 455890 456899 457904
      460910 462910 464909 465914 465930 466943 468953 474957
      479957 482955 494955 498957 502962 510981 520996 526000
      530000 533997 534991 534981 535962 534928 531903 531896
      530892 529888 530884 532878 534859
 0.01 492256 492251 490247 488243 485240 483232 477229 471232
      465236 464240 468241 472243 473247 475250 478251 483247
      488252 490255 492256
 0.01 477215 478213 478210 477210 476211 474211 472213 470213
      468214 468215 467217 468218 469218 470218 471217 473216
      475215 477215 477215
 0.01 447094 443088 436088 434088 434086 432082 435073 439072
      444073 443070 442065 438064 434063 430061 426055 423055
      420057 416057 414059 417064 423071 425077 426084 424089
      426094 429097 433098 436105 436111 438112 441111 442108
      443102 445099 447094
 0.01 443041 443040 441040 441041 441043 443041 443041
 0.01 414071 412068 414064 410063 409061 409056 405055 402055
      398057 394062 398065 403069 406073 408075 410073 414071
 0.01 405109 405107 403108 400106 398106 398108 396110 392112
      392114 394115 396113 398113 401112 403111 405109
 0.01 385168 384163 382160 377159 373161 367165 361170 358174
      359178 362186 371191 374194 378192 378188 377183 376181
      378178 380174 379171 383170 385168
 0.01 393071 393068 392068 391068 390068 389070 388070 388072
      389073 389072 390071 392071 393071
 0.01 385052 385051 383049 381048 379048 378048 376048 374048
      372048 370050 370052 370053 372054 374054 376054 377054
      379054 381054 383054 385052 385052
 0.01 351132 350128 352124 353119 354113 353108 353102 351094
      344089 342087 337086 331090 329094 330096 332106 335113
      337117 337120 336123 333124 329122 316113 312113 309117
      311120 314123 319125 321128 325134 327137 331140 334141
      337141 351133 351132
 0.01 344173 345171 344170 343169 343168 341167 339167 339168
      340170 341171 341173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 269800 268799 267798 266798 264798 262798 261799 259800
      257800 255800 254801 253802 252803 251804 252805 254805
      256805 258804 259804 260803 261802 263802 265802 266801
      268800 269800
 0.25 507846 507838 507830 505823 503820 494808 492805 492798
      495789 497781 498776 497773 499767 497760 493754 497749
      499747 498744 495742 487746 481751 475756 468756 457757
      452763 448766 447769 444778 441787 437796 436800 438804
      440807 440811 436821 435828 433831 434837 435843 437847
      439849 443848 449843 454837 459832 467827 473832 476839
      478850 482862 487869 492872 496871 499868 504857 507846
 0.25 430805 428800 425798 421796 418798 413800 410801 405804
      406810 406817 411819 415816 419813 423811 426809 429806
      430805
 0.25 413795 412793 411792 409793 408794 407794 406796 408799
      409798 411797 413795

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 434633 441638 449645 461656 478663 496662 500662 503664
      507667 511670 517674 516685 515692 514698 517714 518721
      518726 515738 506758 501767 497774 494779 491782 483789
      467799 463801 460805 457811 456817 455823 453826 450828
      445829 441828 437830 431831 428829 418827 413826 408827
      397828 386833 382836 379837 372842 340862 335865 331866
      324866 323860 324855 326850 332845 342840 348833 352825
      355817 359812 362809 370803 376798 384792 392786 394782
      394776 393761 391756 387751 382750 378751 373749 367749
      354761 349769 345777 338797 335806 330816 329820 326823
      320827 317823 317816 316804 320794 321790 321782 317772
      316766 317761 317755 313758 310760 306759 299753 297748
      297743 298732 299722 309699
 0.01 523264 521260 516258 513255 511250 507242 502241 502244
      504249 503254 501258 497255 493253 491255 491260 493265
      496268 498274 502283 504287 508290 513282 514279 516279
 0.01 545057 545044 543036 541027 537019 528008 525000 524996
      525991 529984 533977 536969 538960 536951 533944 525931
      522928 518928 516926 512926 496926 488927 484932 482937
      482941 482948 484952 484957 486962 489969 491978 495985
      499991 502999 508014 512023 515030 523044 528060 531068
      533072 536072 540072 542067 545057
 0.01 525193 525187 523181 519179 517176 514173 511169 508166
      506172 508177 509181 512186 515190 518193 521195 524193
      525193
 0.01 479870 478865 475862 470857 465851 456850 452845 449846
      446848 440855 433858 423860 417865 419865 421870 424872
      428872 433871 436870 443866 451864 457867 460870 462874
      464878 465886 467895 469895 470890 475883 478875 479870
 0.01 410117 406099 402091 403088 402087 398089 397082 399077
      404070 408070 407067 400067 395059 392054 388052 384045
      380035 378032 377026 376017 374010 374006 373998 371994
      366989 357985 341988 337995 331005 330009 328013 321016
      314020 310023 304023 301021 296021 291020 287022 284025
      284032 284038 282043 276048 267050 259053 255054 250052
      243052 239054 235057 231063 234071 237079 241086 245094
      247097 251101 253104 251107 245112 241116 240120 239127
      241130 244133 250134 253134 257133 275129 279128 285129
      291131 301130 307131 310134 311139 309142 307147 303148
      292161 293164 296167 299170 303172 312174 316174 319177
      321181 324183 326180 329175 335176 338179 340179 343182
      345180 346178 348176 352175 357176 356180 372189 376189
      377187 374182 373177 372172 372166 380159 384153 390147
      396147 400146 404139 405133 404128 400126 398125 399123
      404118 410117
 0.25 331687 329692 329699 329703 327708 321719 317729 315736
      315740 318742 322741 327738 330735 337734 342733 348733
      355730 360727 369721 379712 388705 393702 399698 405697
      412696 416699 420705 423709 425715 425775 427776 430775
      434774 436772 443764 448760 453761 460759 464756 469751
      475748 481748 486745 491739 493733 491729 487728 481731
      479732 477730 480726 481721 481711 479703 476696 473690
      470685 465681 461678 456677 435672 431670 427663 424657
      421654 416650 411648 400647 387649 380651 375654
 0.25 396796 395793 393793 391794 390795 388797 386798 385799
      385800 384802 384804 385804 387804 388803 390802 392801
      393800 395798 396796
 0.25 390109 388098 386093 383091 377083 374075 369066 365058
      361051 357040 355035 352032 349031 345030 335033 328036
      319041 314047 303061 300063 294063 289062 284063 276067
      267069 263070 260075 260083 261087 264091 270097 281110
      287116 295121 305125 314128 324130 330138 345147 353152
      358153 363152 367149 370145 375138 380130 384120 390109
 0.50 453698 452692 449689 445688 441688 438690 434693 433699
      434703 438706 442708 445708 449707 452703 453698
 0.50 379679 377677 373677 364680 358684 351688 344692 340698
      345699 354695 361692 367688 374684 379679
 0.50 370127 372121 372114 371104 365097 362092 360087 358083
      354083 353087 355097 353100 350104 349103 346099 343092
      341083 341077 342074 347066 349062 349057 348053 346049
      338047 333047 329048 322050 317056 313063 307068 300069
      291069 285070 282071 276075 271081 273088 280094 285100
      288106 293112 299117 308121 315123 325125 333129 347136
      354140 357139 361138 367132 370127
 1.00 345120 346117 346114 344109 341102 337093 335084 333079
      331075 327076 324081 320089 317092 316098 309092 302088
      287079 283081 281083 282086 286088 290087 295087 297090
      300099 304107 306110 311113 320112 329116 336119 341122
      345120

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 439631 446635 451634 456631 462629 468628 470628 471630
      476631 479632 483635 488642 490647 491655 494674 492682
      488691 481699 476709 471718 465723 461726 455728 443730
      439731 434730 427727 420722 415720 410719 405720 401723
      398726 395731 392734 388736 383738 378738 360736 351734
      341733 337730 336725 341720 349713 355712 356710 360709
      376673 382667 390662 398655 410652 414648 416643 420639
      427635
 0.01 515277 516270 515266 513261 511257 509253 506255 504260
      502267 500272 501277 503281 506285 509285 513282 515278
      515277
 0.01 520117 521104 519096 510079 504061 500051 498046 497039
      492021 487013 482004 474991 470989 467991 465994 463998
      461003 461009 459013 456015 452023 450029 450036 449062
      449066 451072 454083 458089 463096 474111 488144 496160
      500169 503181 504184 506184 509173 515147 520117
 0.01 527949 527934 525922 521892 519887 519881 515871 512869
      509871 506872 504869 504865 507862 512856 515853 516849
      518843 517835 517827 515824 515819 511810 510806 506805
      504805 502802 502793 501790 499791 493792 488792 485791
      477788 469786 457788 451793 449795 448801 449816 453828
      455835 454846 455860 457867 460871 458876 458880 459885
      460889 469910 472931 474935 478938 484947 487955 493960
      498960 502962 508962 512961 520957 525952 527949
 0.01 416104 417090 415079 415076 417074 416070 415057 413052
      410049 408046 409037 410035 410031 411014 411006 410001
      410996 409992 408988 408984 409977 409970 408965 405954
      402949 402942 400933 398928 396922 393916 389908 385904
      382902 373902 365921 362925 359927 354931 350934 346937
      340935 332930 324933 316937 308941 305945 301947 297950
      295952 294953 292952 287951 283949 278946 277938 277931
      276929 276925 271904 269900 267902 260908 255915 251919
      252924 263945 266954 267958 269963 271967 271973 271981
      269985 266988 265993 262004 259021 258035 254045 253049
      249051 244051 240049 234049 232053 231058 229061 229065
      227068 226074 224078 230081 240088 245093 253098 260104
      266110 272116 281122 288124 291129 289142 287145 288150
      293157 297158 300162 305165 310166 314168 318170 321171
      324174 329175 336178 341177 354180 362177 365177 369173
      374166 380160 384154 389151 392149 395145 398139 400133
      404121 410111 416104
 0.25 510275 510273 510270 510268 508267 506269 506271 506274
      507277 508277 510275
 0.25 510123 511115 511107 509102 507096 503084 499074 495076
      492071 488071 489078 493089 497100 501111 505123 507128
      510125 510123
 0.25 480673 479660 478655 475649 471643 469640 464640 458639
      450643 441647 435652 430658 426667 423673 420678 419683
      420691 424701 430704 436707 445706 455704 462700 468693
      473687 479681 480673
 0.25 390107 392090 392081 392077 391074 382065 374054 371048
      369042 370029 372019 374013 381999 383993 386988 388982
      388973 387966 386961 385958 378956 375956 372958 365967
      355971 342974 326976 319976 314978 304983 293989 288993
      284997 281003 280009 279025 278034 276041 273048 268053
      259059 255061 251065 248070 249077 253083 258088 265095
      273102 284109 296117 301118 306119 313119 320120 325123
      330128 333134 337139 344141 351143 354144 358143 361138
      363135 364131 366123 370117 376114 383112 388110 390107
 0.50 471670 471661 468654 464650 459649 453650 446653 443657
      439663 437667 435674 433689 433693 432696 434699 438701
      446699 457692 461689 465683 471673 471670
 0.50 353126 352115 346107 343102 341096 337084 335079 334074
      339064 341059 343052 346046 348037 349032 349025 351011
      352003 351995 348991 342988 332986 326986 321987 312992
      302999 298002 296006 292016 291024 292030 295037 295044
      295051 293056 291060 293065 302071 311079 313084 308085
      304084 300081 294071 290068 284068 271067 266067 260068
      255070 254071 255074 262084 267091 275097 295110 299112
      304112 316112 328113 336121 344130 347131 351130 353126
 1.00 446678 446675 444674 443676 443678 443679 443681 443684
      444684 444683 445682 446680 446678 446678
 1.00 280086 280084 279082 277081 276079 274079 272079 270078
      268078 268079 269081 270082 271083 272083 273085 274085
      275086 277087 279088 280086

$$




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