Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 20/0000 UTC THRU AUG 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN---PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY
1.   THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT THESE HEIGHT FALLS
HAVE BEEN EMBEDDED IN WILL ALSO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SUBSEQUENTLY---PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON A DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY DAY 1---WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THEN
RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF
FAIRLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS---RUNOFF ISSUES MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
MT---INTO WESTERN ND AND NORTHWEST SD.   THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME
PERIOD---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.  HOWEVER---THERE IS
A SIGNAL IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  A BLEND OF THE
1200 UTC HI RES ARW--ALONG WITH THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
MEANS USED FOR QPF DETAILS.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---UPPER OH VALLEY

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION DAY 1.  AN AXIS OF
1.5-1.75"+ PW AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.
HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY FROM EASTERN
OH---WESTERN NY---WESTERN PA INTO FAR WESTERN MD AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE .50-1"
RANGE---WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 535174 536167 535162 534157 534147 535140 535133 529126
      523118 521112 522104 519093 518089 515085 508080 503080
      498082 493089 492099 492104 491108 489108 487103 483099
      481093 482084 485080 487073 491065 496056 507042 512035
      514031 515024 516018 515011 510002 507000 503999 493998
      484995 478986 467970 461962 454954 446953 441953 437956
      431948 427940 418926 410905 407901 404895 399887 397882
      399878 402868 408860 413854 428839 436840 439842 445843
      449843 451840 454841 456845 461855 463859 464862 464866
      464886 470886 473888 478888 481883 483882 483878 485872
      485865 485859 494858 497858 497850 494837 493829 492820
      493816 492811 491805 488801 487794 488788 484779 479769
      477764 474760 468754 463750 446742 443739 437741 433742
      430745 427750 424754 415759 397766 390769 385771 381775
      369786 365789 359791 355781 354774 355768 355758 356753
      356747 351740 348737 342739 334742 327749 321756 315763
      311773 309782 309787 311790 319796 323803 321805 318806
      314806 309807 304806 299806 295808 294820 296830 297844
      298848 298852 297863 296875 296879 295887 294892 294899
      293905 293914 297934 299937 303937 307929 310918 312907
      315896 317888 319877 320873 319866 319860 317855 317846
      317839 325844 330844 334846 339845 342845 343849 345854
      345858 344860 342869 339880 340885 342890 347895 353891
      356888 360886 364895 367900 370904 380920 388943 391954
      394962 398972 400977 403982 404986 405992 404007 404011
      402014 400017 397018 393022 391031 389035 389041 390043
      395041 402042 406040 410039 416039 421040 425042 428043
      427046 425048 421052 417054 406054 402053 399055 392062
      384064 380062 375061 370061 364060
 0.01 364060 361060 357062 351067 348069 344069 340071 338074
      337077 334077 330079 326081 322080 318081 314077 311075
      309070 313064 317058 314050 313047 312044 313042 316039
      317035 312030 303027 294023 288023 281019 274015 267012
      262011 258012 249012 241014 235015 233017 232021 231026
      230037 228045 228055 228061 230065 237070 250080 263088
      269092 276098 282103 288109 291113 295114 296115 302114
      330123 335123 337129 333142 328149 327155 327161 329169
      336174 341179 345181 346175 347163 347157 348150 352143
      355141 361141 380145 385150 388155 392156 400162 404164
      410165 413162 413157 413152 413149 415149 423148 430154
      436158 440161 442161 446158 449156 454154 458154 469165
      480178 488180 491181 495179 500178 503179 509173 515171
      519172 522174 525179 529181 533178 535174
 0.01 269808 269804 267802 265801 261801 257802 254802 250803
      249806 250810 252812 254814 257815 259816 261815 264814
      266812 267809 269808
 0.25 522155 524151 523146 521141 516130 512121 508116 504113
      500115 497118 494123 491129 490135 491142 497151 504158
      508158 512155 513153 516154 522155 522155
 0.25 489023 491015 487012 482010 478008 473000 469990 464981
      461977 457974 448972 439971 435972 430973 426975 422979
      421985 423991 429997 436002 442010 445014 446020 448026
      452028 456030 459034 463037 467039 472039 476037 484032
      488028 489023
 0.25 484824 479805 471790 466784 461780 449770 443768 436767
      429767 421770 414773 405775 395776 388779 383784 376789
      370794 366800 365803 366807 374808 383809 384813 386815
      392819 392829 391834 391839 393842 397843 405842 409841
      412838 417832 423827 436819 443816 452816 458818 463823
      474835 478836 481834 484827 484824
 0.25 450114 450107 449102 446097 443095 439097 436098 432100
      431106 433111 436113 440115 445117 448116 450114
 0.25 406077 406071 403068 398069 395071 390072 388075 385079
      386084 389087 395087 398087 403086 404081 406077
 0.25 384866 383857 381853 378851 372848 363847 360852 360857
      361863 364872 368878 372883 376883 379881 382875 384866
 0.25 343766 344759 341755 338756 335759 333763 331766 329770
      330775 334777 338775 340772 343768 343766
 0.25 302040 295036 286034 277035 266034 261034 258037 254046
      251047 245047 240047 238051 238057 239061 243068 250074
      257078 266081 275086 278086 282085 281074 279065 279061
      283058 290056 294054 296048 302040
 0.50 509141 509138 509137 509136 508133 508132 506130 505129
      503129 501129 500131 499132 499134 499136 500139 502142
      503143 505144 506144 508143 509141
 0.50 478822 476815 474810 468798 461790 453782 432780 421780
      409779 397780 392784 392792 395796 397798 397803 401806
      403808 403811 403817 403820 405822 408823 412823 416820
      420816 425814 435808 438803 441799 448799 453801 461806
      464810 467816 472823 475825 478822
 0.50 473019 473012 472006 468997 464989 458984 454982 448982
      446985 446992 451000 450010 452015 456017 463022 466023
      469023 473019
 0.50 377868 377864 376862 374859 373857 371855 367855 365856
      364860 366865 367867 368869 370872 372875 374877 376875
      377871 377868
 0.50 273048 273047 272046 271046 269045 268046 267048 269050
      270050 271050 272049 273048
 0.50 266072 264068 261066 257063 254061 251059 246057 245062
      247066 249069 252071 256073 261074 265073 266072

$$




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