Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 15/1200 UTC THRU DEC 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE ARE NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLIFYING NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROF PUSHING INLAND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY.  CONCENTRATED LIFT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  OVERALL GOOD
MASS FIELD AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT.

NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN WELL
DEFINED LARGE SCALE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO---SOUTH TX AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH PW VALUES 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THIS
LARGE SCALE LIFT AXIS---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIP POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX.  TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH TX---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE UPPER TX AND LA COASTS---WITH AT BEST
SOME LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING THESE AREAS.

GREAT LAKES

HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MB/ONTARIO AND INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES DAY 1.   STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND THE TRAILING
FRONT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DAY 1.
HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN L.P. OF MI AND
IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE FROM FAR NORTHEAST OH---FAR NW PA AND INTO
FAR WESTERN NY STATE.  ELSEWHERE---LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS
EXPECTED.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
DRAPED FROM SASK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
MOSTLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
NORTHEAST ND INTO NW MN

MID ATLANTIC---SOUTHERN NY STATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC---AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES
TROF---WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY--WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES EAST
NORTHEAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD INCREASED
PRECIP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO FAR SOUTHERN NY STATE AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS---WITH LIGHT SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE FROM IN THE VICINITY OF DC-BALTIMORE---EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA---DE---NJ---FAR SOUTHERN NY STATE AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.   SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 536204 537196 537188 532178 532171 532163 531150 528142
      524134 517129 512120 508115 507109 506103 504096 504089
      501085 499082 494081 491072 491066 490060 484053 481051
      476051 473058 469061 465062 460062 457066 453068 449070
      444069 436069 436074 440074 448080 450084 448090 447093
      444092 439093 437095 434093 430090 426087 423091 427099
      424102 422106 417115 412115 410117 404123 402127 405130
      409131 412131 414130 419130 423129 426129 431127 436127
      439131 432137 427141 423141 419144 414153 412158 410161
      407161 406157 407153 408149 406150 402153 380178 380182
      382186 385191 388195 396201 398204 402203 407198 411194
      412196 411199 410203 411207 415215 415219 416222 419225
      418234 414236 415239 418242 423244 431247 435250 436255
      439258 442258 448259 451257 468251 474252 478251 481251
      485254 502286 508288 511286 514282 516275 518269 519261
      519256 516252 515247 516241 518237 519229 520222 522218
      529213 534209 536204
 0.01 534040 535034 535029 533026 533021 531005 521983 520978
      518975 515972 512967 497952 490944 481937 479933 476928
      476918 476914 477910 478904 480899 483893 483885 482873
      484859 484851 485844 489830 488823 487817 481807 478803
      477799 475792 476785 476781 477777 476769 476760 478754
      476737 476732 474730 473720 472711 471707 472703 470699
      469691 461688 458684 453683 449682 446680 443674 442669
      442654 442649 436648 433647 427649 422646 418644 406648
      402651 395654 384657 377661 370671 366676 364681 363692
      365708 370717 375726 377730 375735 374740 375747 373761
      375778 375785 374791 376808 401811 410838 412839 413844
      411851 410857 410863 414872 416877 419881 431900 443921
      448930 453940 457948 462958 465969 470979 482003 492023
      502039 509047 518051 525052 529050 533045 534040
 0.01 502251 501248 500244 499241 497239 495236 493235 491237
      490239 492242 493245 495246 496249 499252 502251
 0.01 458712 454710 449709 443708 441709 441713 438719 435722
      432726 435727 440726 444727 448726 450728 453727 458724
      458719 458714 458712
 0.01 463905 463898 462893 462878 460873 457869 455866 450866
      440867 437867 435869 437873 439878 442882 443887 446892
      451899 453903 457906 459908 463908 463905
 0.01 447736 443735 438734 431730 422732 420742 416750 415762
      419773 423773 426770 429762 431760 431756 430750 430742
      431739 440739 445738 447736
 0.01 433210 434208 433206 432207 431209 432211 433210
 0.01 435818 434816 433815 432815 430815 428815 427817 425818
      423819 422820 422822 422825 424827 425826 427826 429826
      431825 432823 434821 435818
 0.01 225050 226058 227063 235067 246069 254071 259068 263068
      271073 280076 286077 291075 293071 293064 292060 289055
      286047 285042 283037 280025 279019 278013 277009 278003
      280991 282977 285967 287957 291947 298926 299920 300914
      301905 298894 296891 294890 290888 288887 288884 289881
      288866 288858 289852 289846 287841 284833 280835 278840
      274851 272862 269870 267874 263877 240906 237912 235919
      232925 229930 231973 231975 231977 231979 231981 231983
      230985 230987 230989 230991 230993 230995 230997 230999
 0.25 517180 516174 514171 509167 506165 501165 499168 496172
      497177 498184 500188 503190 508191 511189 514186 516181
      517180
 0.25 523007 522003 520000 515999 513997 508991 504985 499982
      495982 495986 498994 502001 507006 513011 521011 523007
 0.25 497218 498213 496209 492208 488208 481208 476210 470213
      464216 460222 463224 465223 471219 478220 486220 493221
      497218
 0.25 495148 495143 494135 493131 488131 483130 479130 476131
      474136 475140 480142 483145 486148 489152 493150 495148
 0.25 481160 480156 479154 474151 469147 463145 459148 455154
      455159 459165 464167 469171 474169 478165 481160
 0.25 480110 480108 480107 479104 478103 477102 475101 473102
      472103 471103 470105 469105 469108 469110 470113 471113
      472115 474115 476114 477113 479112 479110 480110
 0.25 462238 462237 461235 460235 458236 457236 455236 455237
      453237 451237 451238 453239 454239 456239 458240 459240
      460239 461238 462238
 0.25 465179 465174 463171 461173 459175 456175 452176 452178
      450183 449185 449188 450192 453191 455189 457187 459185
      462183 464181 465179
 0.25 451225 451222 451220 450219 449219 447218 445218 443218
      442219 440219 440220 438221 438224 439225 440226 442227
      444227 446227 447227 448227 449226 451225
 0.25 457810 458803 457796 454792 450790 447792 444798 441800
      439803 440809 442813 445815 450816 453818 456817 457812
      457810
 0.25 459852 459847 458844 456841 454839 452838 449838 447839
      446842 445846 445851 446855 448856 451857 455856 458854
      459852
 0.25 448775 447773 444771 442769 441774 440777 439781 438784
      440786 443788 445784 446781 447778 448775
 0.25 430185 429183 427184 426184 425186 425187 426189 428188
      429187 430185 430185
 0.25 425681 424674 422670 420668 416667 411668 408670 402676
      396682 391688 387695 385703 385708 385714 386717 385722
      387735 389738 389742 389749 392752 396750 397746 399736
      403729 408722 411714 412704 415696 419688 424683 425681
 0.25 427788 426785 422787 421789 419791 418795 416797 416800
      415804 416809 417812 419810 421807 422804 423801 423797
      425794 426791 427788
 0.25 288918 289912 288905 286903 283902 278901 275902 271910
      268917 263924 259930 257933 254934 246939 241944 236948
      234951 232955 232964 236971 246982 242991 238997 234003
      231011 229021 228032 229042 229046 231049 236051 241051
      250052 257052 260051 263047 263035 264031 267027 270022
      272017 272011 272987 275968 279948 283933 288918
 0.50 461180 461178 459178 457179 456182 457183 458182 459182
      461180 461180
 0.50 404689 404687 403687 402687 401688 400688 398690 398691
      397692 397693 396696 396698 398699 400698 400697 401696
      402694 403693 403692 404689 404689
 0.50 283918 284913 282909 280908 277910 272923 264935 259941
      255945 248949 243954 237958 235959 235963 240968 246970
      251971 256971 258969 260966 268954 271947 274940 280927
      283918
 0.50 267015 267006 266001 265994 263988 260987 256987 251989
      247992 244996 237005 234011 232016 231023 230031 231039
      234041 244037 248034 252030 256026 261024 265020 267015
 1.00 260015 261010 260008 256002 253000 249999 247000 244006
      241011 238015 235019 235023 237025 241026 246023 252021
      256018 260015

$$




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