Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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935
FXUS04 KWBC 161002
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
601 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 16/1200 UTC THRU MAY 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS-UPPER MS VALLEY---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW---PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD AND
CLOSING OFF A NEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S.---STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION---SOUTHWARD THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS---IN A REGION OF VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY LARGE REGION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS DAY 1.  THERE STILL IS A
LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE--BUT AGREEMENT
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS.  FOR
DETAILS--THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED MEANS WERE USED.  HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY 1 DEPICTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE KS/OK/MO/AR
BORDER---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL TX WHERE
CONVECTION MAY MAXIMIZE IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC TIME FRAME SUNDAY
MAY 17TH.  TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS THESE REGIONS---LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.  TO THE NORTH
OF THIS REGION---LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS---WITH A BROAD
REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN---NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DAY 1.  THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
AXIS---LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THESE REGIONS DAY
1.  HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE  NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  LATE
SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST WY INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTHWEST MT.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION

BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.75"+ RANGE---ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THERE IS A
SIGNAL IN THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE FOR VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF FAR SOUTHEAST LA---SOUTHERN
MS--SOUTHWEST AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE TRAINING OF
CELLS IN A SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE.  CONFIDENCE
NOT GREAT WITH PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINS---BUT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN
THIS HIGH PW ATMOSPHERE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION WILL ALSO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY---WITH PW VALUES 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN.  SIMILAR TO AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST---HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORTWAVES.  SEVERAL MODELS SHOW HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY--ESPECIALLY THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WHERE A WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAX IS POSSIBLE IN
THE 1800 TO 0000 UTC MAY 17TH TIME FRAME.  HEAVIEST TOTALS
DEPICTED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY---WITH MODERATE TOTALS FARTHER
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ON DAY 2...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ON DAY 3...COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN (THOUGH
THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE A TAD SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON DAY 3). WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2 BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK
DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES...SO MUCH OF THE QPF
PRODUCTION COMES FROM CONVECTION. MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM OH THROUGH WESTERN PA/WV INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MD PEAKS DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL).

THE CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IN ACROSS MUCH
OF OH INTO WESTERN PA/WV/WESTERN MD. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS LOCALLY...BUT BECAUSE THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HOVER ABOVE 2.50
INCHES...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING DAY 2.

THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME FOCUSES ON A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EASTERN OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC DURING DAY 3. THE BEST LIFT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CROSSES ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75
INCHES...ALONG WITH MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A LONG AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY STATE
THROUGH OH/MUCH OF PA INTO WV AND MD. LOCAL 0.75 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN KY/SOUTHEAST OH/WESTERN
PA...GIVEN THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT AN AREA OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 2. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCURS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2 ACROSS ND/NORTHERN MN...AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PEAKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON ITS WAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS MN...WHICH THEN CROSSES ND AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ND. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ND...THERE IS
A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE EFFICIENT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...A LARGE AREA OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN...AND THESE
AMOUNTS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA IS AS LOW AS 1.00 TO
1.50 INCHES...SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FLASH FLOODING...RESULTING IN A FLOOD VERSUS FLASH
FLOOD SCENARIO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OT KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY FUNNELED AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID
MS VALLEY COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION DURING DAY 2 AND 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP (THOUGH THERE
WAS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING DAY 3)...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING DAY 2
BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS
1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHICH PRODUCES IN A
PEAK IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER 18/00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVEL
INITIALLY. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION STARTING MORE IN A
SEVERE MODE...WITH COLD POOLS DOMINATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
MODEL SIGNALS THAT THE COLUMN MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT...WHICH COULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50
INCHES OF QPF WILL BE PRODUCED BY THE CONVECTION...STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL TX ACROSS NORTHEAST TX/EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK INTO MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AR. WHILE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES...RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1 COULD LOWER THESE NUMBERS FOR DAY 2. IN
ADDITION...TRAINING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

THE FRONT SLIDES A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST DURING DAY 3. WHILE THERE
IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT
GETS...IT SHOULD STILL BE IN A POSITION TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW COULD AID IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. AS WAS THE CASE DURING DAY 2...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MODE DURING DAY 3 COULD START AS SEVERE. AS WAS THE
CASE DURING DAY 2...THE COLUMN MOISTENS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TX ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN LA.

THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK THAT
PORTIONS OF TX AND OK HAVE SEEN...AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2.50 AND
3.50 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WITHOUT A STRONGER MODEL SIGNAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS INCLUDED FOR PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL TX ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN
LA. IF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTS THESE AREAS DURING DAY 2...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.


...WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY ON DAY 2...AND A
SECOND CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE ON
DAY 2. THE CLOSED LOW CROSSES CA EARLY ON DAY 3...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST
PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SECOND CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

DURING DAY 2...THE FIRST CLOSED LOW EXITS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE CA COAST.
WHILE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE RESULTANT SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
AFFECT A LARGE AREA OF CA/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.50 INCHES...SO
MOISTURE MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START REACHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES AHEAD
OF THE SECOND CLOSED LOW. A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED HERE...BUT ELSEWHERE ONLY LOCAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
QPF MAXIMA WERE PLACED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NV/ID/WY/CO.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM COMES ASHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING
DAY 3...REACHING SOUTHERN NV BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE COLUMN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES...SO THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RELATIVE TO DAY 2. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR...NORTHEAST CA INTO SOUTHERN ID...WESTERN WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN CO.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TX INTO NM AND SOUTHERN
CO...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE WEST COAST PROVIDES
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT (IN THE FORM OF DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK). THE DEVELOPING 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PUMPS 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO
NORTH TX AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NM (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AS WELL AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED VEERING WIND WITH
HEIGHT...SUGGESTING ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. AN AREA OF
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM A PORTION OF NORTH
TX INTO SOUTHEAST NM.

WHILE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH
HERE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THIS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
PLACED OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


ORAVEC/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 531178 533163 533148 531140 530135 527132 519122 515119
      514118 513114 514097 515079 519054 522041 526029 530019
      533009 537998 539992 538987 538954 538925 537919 532918
      522915 503910 493908 482909 461910 456910 453912 448912
      444910 439900 439894 438890 437876 435871 435863 433838
      435806 435792 438782 444761 445754 450752 458746 461743
      461739 461726 458726 454725 449726 446725 447723 457720
      462718 466716 470714 472711 478705 481701 482698 482693
      482686 480681 477669 470661 464655 460653 458652 455652
      451656 445656 437658 431659 427659 417661 412663 409666
      404670 393685 390693 387700 385713 385728 387736 388741
      389755 382771 376787 372798 367808 366820 363829 360838
      357842 354845 350847 346848 336849 327844 320837 307824
      301815 296810 291803 283798 274793 266792 261792 260795
      255801 255807 254810 259818 263825 268831 272835 275839
      278842 280844 281848 282857 280869 281877 282881 283887
      285892 286902 287909 290913 295933 303949 304953 303958
      300962 297966 292970 285974 281977 276980 272982 270986
      273993 280001 278012 282020 299028 307024 312018 315014
      320016 329017 334017 337016 348014 353011 360006 363007
      365010 368014 369019 370027 373037 374042 370046 327094
      313105 311111 320113 333115 343112 349103 352100 358100
      360097 365097 370097 375100 381099 388097 394091 400081
      407076 413074 414069 416064 416057 415052 415045
 0.01 415045 416036 416033 419033 425031 429031 431033 436036
      441040 444043 448042 455037 459036 460040 461048 462056
      460062 459066 457069 450067 447067 445065 441067 440067
      438071 438078 442082 442085 440087 437088 434086 430084
      425085 423084 422091 420095 422102 420105 414102 412096
      407091 399103 391107 386110 382114 379118 380124 385127
      389132 392137 392144 391154 392160 395164 401167 405167
      411165 418166 422165 429167 434169 446172 448171 451173
      450179 449188 452192 456192 458190 461185 464180 467177
      470176 473178 477184 478191 479196 486199 490202 500207
      510201 518204 522202 526198 531178
 0.01 470218 468216 465215 459216 454217 449218 443218 441219
      440224 444228 448226 453225 458224 464224 468220 470218
 0.25 522955 520945 517941 516935 513928 512923 509923 501931
      494936 490937 485937 478933 405925 397923 390919 387917
      386913 388903 392893 399886 404880 408870 411866 413862
      415853 419832 421819 422807 422797 422785 422774 424764
      425755 426751 425745 418721 415717 412719 410729 409740
      406748 405759 405766 403771 386800 380817 375823 372830
      368840 363849 356867 354871 350874 346875 341876 332874
      325871 321869 316868 309869 301871 296876 294881 294885
      294898 296906 301911 305915 309916 319913 340911 345911
      349912 355917 358922 359926 359930 353932 346934 338937
      327948 316960 306970 295985 292989 290994 288005 289011
      291015 298019 302018 305015 311010 316004 320002 325002
      332000 339996 346994 350992 356992 373993 381988 386997
      393001 394004 391008 389012 390018 397018 406020 416020
      434019 449013 454013 458015 461018 463022 467039 468048
      467057 466064 465070 460079 453083 449092 445099 442101
      438104 429106 426107 423110 420112 415111 406109 400113
      398116 397120 402127 414135 418138 423140 430140 436142
      445146 452151 480136 487139 493143 503146 508143 511144
      512142 507133 504126 500120 497115 496108 499097 502084
      504071 507059 510048 512035 514019 515008 515001 516994
      520970 522955
 0.25 469684 469681 467679 466679 464679 462679 460679 459679
      458679 457682 459684 461686 463687 465687 467687 468685
      469684
 0.25 460158 458157 457157 458159 460158 460158
 0.25 385079 383075 380071 378069 375065 371063 369063 369066
      371069 373073 374078 375082 381084 384081 385079
 0.50 511973 511965 510959 509954 506951 490962 482960 476956
      474952 473943 469940 466938 446939 434939 423937 418936
      412936 403936 396937 391935 389932 385929 380929 376930
      369933 364934 357935 351936 347937 339942 332949 321961
      310973 304980 297988 293997 292001 292007 294012 299014
      303013 307009 318998 322995 326994 331995 335993 343989
      351986 362983 371982 387976 391978 392980 391984 390991
      394994 403998 406001 407008 408012 413013 423013 431010
      437007 447003 458002 461005 463009 467018 470030 471043
      470059 471063 470067 468074 465079 459086 453095 448104
      445114 442125 443130 447132 455131 464128 474127 480129
      483131 487132 492132 489129 487122 487117 487108 495090
      497076 499057 505036 506019 507003 508995 508984 511973
 0.50 429123 429119 428118 424117 420117 417116 412114 408115
      406119 408121 412124 416127 419129 424129 427127 429123
 0.50 410824 409814 407807 404803 400804 399808 396819 394828
      387830 383832 380835 377844 373852 369862 365869 363873
      359876 352879 345885 338890 333889 331887 319874 315872
      312871 309872 303876 301880 300885 300892 302899 306906
      311906 316905 323902 331896 335894 339895 344901 359912
      362914 367916 371914 375911 379906 384897 391879 392869
      396859 399851 401846 404846 406845 407842 408835 410824
 1.00 489997 487995 488997 489997
 1.00 480097 481087 480082 477079 471083 466089 462094 458103
      457111 458116 462118 467114 471115 475114 477110 478104
      480097
 1.00 449954 448951 443950 437949 429947 425946 421947 414949
      409954 409957 410960 417962 424964 429965 433965 439961
      443956 449954
 1.00 427997 426995 424996 424997 423999 424000 425999 426998
      427997
 1.00 386868 384864 378865 377871 377874 377877 374882 371885
      372891 374891 377887 379884 382879 384876 385870 386868
 1.00 382945 382938 380936 377935 371936 366938 360939 356939
      352941 348943 344947 328964 321973 317977 313979 304987
      301992 299996 297003 298007 300009 303010 307005 313996
      317991 322988 327987 333989 337986 342983 353978 362972
      372966 377956 381950 382945
 1.00 315894 316890 316886 314881 314879 313875 311875 310877
      309880 308884 307886 306890 307895 307899 309899 311898
      313896 315894
 1.50 472101 473098 473096 473093 473091 472091 471092 470093
      469094 468095 467097 467100 467101 467102 468104 470104
      471103 472102 472101
 1.50 377949 377941 373941 368943 362943 359942 355942 350945
      343953 336962 329971 327977 332980 337979 343976 353971
      357969 361965 371958 375954 377949
 1.50 313990 313986 310987 308989 306992 305994 304996 302000
      302002 302006 304007 305004 306002 308000 310997 311994
      312992 313990
 2.00 359958 358952 359946 354948 348952 346956 344963 341967
      337969 337971 343971 348969 352967 357964 359958

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 449627 463635 473644 478652 482661 482666 482672 480680
      479686 479691 478696 476701 474705 471706 467712 454725
      449731 445732 443730 437727 433716 432708 433706 436705
      440704 444701 444698 442694 438693 432691 425689 420691
      416693 411700 404714 398720 391726 387726 383725 379721
      368707 366704 365698 366690 368682 370672 373664 377659
      382652 388647
 0.01 555821 554811 552807 549800 548790 547774 546766 543764
      540759 538752 536746 533741 530739 526740 515743 509747
      505748 502750 498759 495763 491766 474775 465777 456780
      445783 435788 431789 430783 429775 429771 430769 424759
      417752 414749 410747 402744 393743 389739 384733 379727
      371723 367721 364722 361731 360743 359749 360756 363762
      367764 371764 374769 372773 371778 371787 369792 367798
      363800 349811 339826 334833 324837 317836 311836 308834
      305826 302823 303819 304815 301812 289810 283806 276800
      271792 265787 260783 257779 255778 254781 252784 247790
      244797 245807 245814 249822 254830 258832 262830 266825
      275828 286831 293834 296837 296844 294854 296864 301876
      301880 300884 296882 289879 279875 276875 273878 272883
      272886 274888 283902 289916 291922 292928 290942 286951
      284955 281958 269971 262980 259984 260990 260995 262998
      266003 270011 276016 284018 294019 303015 311011 320007
      327998 330990 332985 335982 346968 352960 359949 366943
      373938 379934 382931 385929 388929 396929 403933 411937
      417941 422944 422951 422961 422970 415989 413994 414999
      420006 425016 427030 430038 431047 427053 423057 420060
      417061 415056 412046 410040 411031 411026 409021 404022
      400025 398030 395031 393029 389029 389036 381035 377034
      376037 377043 380054 387074 387078 384081 384088 385093
      392090 393092 393096 392103 389111 383115 377121 375125
      374130 378130 382129 391123 396123 398127 408130 409135
      407139 395137 390137 384140 381143 378148 376152 377155
      376162 378165 382168 383174 381179 376180 367179 359181
      357185 365190 378201
 0.01 378201 415241 427245 430242 431236 432233 434232 438231
      446228 450226 454227 463228 466227 468228 469230 474232
      477236 482239 485243 490252 495262 499271 504276 507275
      510270 513257 519253 522251 523245 521234 521231 524231
      526230 526225 524220 524217 525214 526210 527204 523195
      513179 510175 505174 500179 492183 486190 481196 475202
      460205 457208 455210 452209 450205 451200 456190 462182
      466175 467169 466164 464161 460160 456150 454145 455139
      458128 457113 461110 464112 465119 467122 470126 474124
      481122 484122 486118 490106 491092 492083 493076 498064
      504045 511026 528984 535963 537958 538954 540944 542930
      543922 544917 548889 550877 552865 554852 554840 554827
      555821
 0.01 424084 424081 423080 423079 423077 422074 420074 418074
      417074 415074 413073 412075 411078 410080 411081 413081
      414082 416082 418083 420083 421083 421084 423085 424084
 0.01 350197 350195 351192 350192 350190 350188 351186 352184
      352183 351184 350185 349185 349187 347189 346191 345193
      346196 346198 347199 348198 350197 350197
 0.25 545847 545831 543813 542785 541780 538775 535773 530773
      525776 521782 477820 473820 470818 463811 458805 456806
      455810 454820 456826 458829 460832 465835 468836 471840
      474849 477860 477873 476878 474883 469889 465893 461888
      458882 454880 449880 443881 438880 430880 423877 411869
      403863 403859 405855 409850 414847 420842 422839 422833
      420825 421815 421804 422798 421794 416786 409780 397772
      394769 392769 388773 386777 385781 382785 380789 381795
      379801 376805 374805 371806 369809 364816 366819 369818
      373813 379809 387807 390805 393807 393810 390811 386813
      384816 385822 388823 391822 396825 399830 400835 397843
      394846 391848 385850 379853 374858 370865 367872 362878
      351889 310941 301952 290964 284974 280980 279984 278989
      282995 284001 287004 291005 296005 302002 315993 328981
      332979 335976 339970 348958 355947 362934 372919 377913
      382908 389902 393900 398900 405903 414905 418906 422908
      428913 433919 434923 435927 439943 440951 443961 444967
      443971 440984 439994 440004 441016 443025 449034 455040
      468050 474051 478054 482055 484053 487047 494031 511001
      519983 523973 526962 531944 535924 539902 542882 545847
 0.25 509238 506224 507211 504205 501200 499202 495202 490202
      481206 476208 471211 466213 468217 478218 491221 497231
      499234 501236 505233 506234 507239 509238
 0.25 467654 465651 461649 458649 453650 447651 444654 442659
      442662 446666 450666 453667 458665 463663 466659 467655
      467654
 0.25 456081 457079 457076 458074 458071 458069 457067 456066
      455066 454066 452068 452069 451071 451073 451075 451078
      451079 451080 451083 452085 452086 454087 455086 456083
      456081 456081
 0.25 421214 420202 419196 415192 409190 403190 393188 387189
      383191 376189 374188 374191 378194 381199 385202 393208
      401214 404216 408216 412216 418217 421214
 0.25 405682 405674 402669 400667 395667 388672 383681 381690
      380696 382700 388707 394711 399704 402694 404684 405682
 0.25 408182 407180 407177 405179 405182 406183 408182
 0.25 410103 410101 409100 408098 407100 407103 409103 410103
 0.25 308856 308854 308852 307852 305851 303851 303853 304855
      306856 307856 308856
 0.50 541861 541849 541839 537821 536813 535805 533800 526801
      517808 510818 503828 497835 493841 491847 488851 491857
      494861 494868 491882 486894 480907 477912 474914 471914
      466914 460915 456919 453923 450930 448936 449943 451949
      455960 456964 455968 453974 450981 448987 446995 446002
      446008 449015 455025 464033 470035 476034 483029 487025
      491020 498011 504003 510993 516980 521967 525954 528941
      532925 535908 537892 539877 541861
 0.50 396684 396682 396680 395678 395677 393678 391679 390681
      389681 388683 387684 386687 387689 388691 390692 391691
      393690 395688 395687 396685 396684
 0.50 406792 406787 404785 401784 397784 394786 391787 389790
      389792 390794 391796 395796 398796 400793 402792 404793
      406792
 0.50 392202 391199 389198 388198 386198 385198 386199 387200
      388201 389201 391202 392202
 0.50 388870 385868 382869 379873 377876 373882 367886 359890
      353896 345908 335921 326932 314945 305956 299961 294967
      290974 287981 287987 287993 289997 291000 298999 306996
      318986 329977 335971 340965 349954 365925 374910 381897
      388870
 1.00 531891 529836 527830 525828 522831 520835 515856 512864
      507873 500891 493910 490919 488929 479946 474953 471962
      467970 462979 458986 455993 455001 456005 459008 463011
      471012 478011 485007 492002 498996 503990 507982 511972
      517954 523930 528912 530899 531891
 1.00 357919 358914 356913 353917 346922 339928 334935 321948
      315956 309962 303969 297977 296982 296985 299989 304990
      313984 319979 334967 341960 346954 354936 357919
 1.50 522884 521878 515879 511883 508887 503899 499911 496926
      492937 487950 483962 480967 477972 470981 468986 467991
      469994 474996 480995 490990 494987 497984 503972 507962
      512947 514934 515926 516915 517908 519902 522892 522884
 1.50 348936 347934 343932 337935 329945 322956 314966 305975
      303979 305981 308982 313978 317974 322969 327967 333963
      337959 342954 345949 348941 348936
 2.00 503934 503931 503929 503926 503924 502922 500923 500924
      500926 499929 499932 499934 500937 501938 502937 502936
      503934
 2.00 343945 343941 341936 337939 336941 332945 330949 329954
      328958 330961 334959 337956 339953 341949 343945

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 539197 539194 537193 534195 527198 524198 520200 515199
      513193 511183 509180 506180 504182 501181 502173 501168
      498164 493155 487147 480140 471132 466124 461118 456111
      455098 450090 450085 451083 450075 447072 441065 435061
      431058 429054 425051 422046 419042 417036 414025 413019
      408020 394028 390030 386028 380022 374016 370014 365013
      359013 354011 350010 348007 342000 336993 334990 337987
      341978 350958 354950 359941 361936 365932 371927 377918
      377913 379908 381899 386890 390883 395875 398865 402856
      412842 419835 424834 428834 430836 435845 439847 442851
      454850 458854 460858 461874 462878 463887 464891 464898
      461908 460913 457918 457930 457943 459951 460956 460962
      462967 463972 464977 470986 475988 479992 488992 495993
      499991 504991 507989 510988 514983 520976 525969 530963
      535955 538928 539923 540914 541908 541899 543871 543856
      544850 544839 545808 545799 543793 539779 533755 527729
      529716 528703 525688 520680 510666 500668 495671 494673
      490674 486673 481674 472678 465687 459694 453701 448707
      446712 442716 435722 422733 412737 402741 398743 392744
      386746 383749 381752 377754 371755 366755 361754 358755
      354757 351761 348765 346770 346774 349777 352781 353786
      351794 347800 345806 342810 339814 335815 326818 305820
      294821 290820 290824 291830 288835 284837 281842 281846
      285850 287854 290857 297864 299866 301869 301873 300884
      296891 295894 293895 287897 280902 276903 273905 274909
      277912 291921 294923 295929 296933 296939 297947 295952
      292964 290970 287973 279978 272983 266987 259992 255000
      254004 256008 259012 263014 270018 279021
 0.01 279021 284024 289030 299038 304043 309049 311055 315060
      325068 334079 341090 341096 339099 338108 339111 343111
      352113 357109 364108 370108 372107 374109 372113 373129
      374139 378144 380148 376150 373152 369151 357154 358157
      360159 369161 375165 379170 378174 376177 370179 357184
      357185 359188 365192 377200 389208 402215 406221 405225
      403226 399227 398230 398234 401238 399241 400242 407246
      419246 421248 424246 430243 453234 459232 462231 463228
      467227 471229 474238 481249 485256 487259 490261 502271
      508275 511277 514276 516274 518270 519260 519251 521243
      534209 539197
 0.01 502184 493177 488175 484172 480169 475169 471172 468175
      465180 463186 461194 459200 462211 465212 467212 471209
      479205 486199 494194 497190 500186 502184
 0.01 350194 349192 349190 350188 351186 350185 349185 347187
      347189 346191 346194 347196 348197 348196 350195 350194
 0.01 262796 262792 260790 255790 251791 247796 244803 243811
      247817 253819 256817 261816 263814 262809 258804 254802
      261798 262796
 0.01 251804 250803 248804 250805 251804
 0.25 534789 534782 533774 531761 529755 524755 516756 508754
      500755 492758 484763 476767 478774 480797 480804 479811
      478822 477829 477836 478847 483872 484886 482899 484927
      489949 493959 499965 503967 506967 510965 512962 516952
      518940 521929 522915 523900 523887 524881 524873 522860
      523847 524834 526820 529809 530804 532799 534789
 0.25 481703 480698 477696 473698 469701 459719 445732 439739
      432746 429750 426752 417755 409756 400756 392757 390758
      388761 387768 382788 382793 381798 375806 368813 363820
      357826 352836 346855 345860 343864 341875 338879 332880
      329878 326881 326893 324896 320900 310904 306907 305911
      305938 306945 305951 302961 294979 290987 284993 281997
      279001 278006 279010 282014 286015 290017 295016 300015
      302012 304007 304000 304996 306993 308990 315984 321979
      326971 338956 344948 350942 359926 364919 368910 377893
      380881 383870 386861 390853 403841 409833 413824 420816
      424813 430812 436807 441801 447794 450789 451783 451776
      454772 460765 467760 473752 476748 477743 476739 478734
      480726 480717 481703
 0.25 457182 456174 452166 451157 448153 445156 446160 448168
      446175 440180 440185 443188 447195 451190 456184 457182
 0.25 450222 448217 444215 438212 435208 430199 426201 424208
      418215 412223 409229 409235 413238 419240 428238 436234
      444228 447226 450222
 0.25 444138 445137 443137 442137 441138 439139 441140 442141
      443140 444138 444138
 0.25 400174 402169 401165 398164 396163 394163 390165 388166
      387168 385170 384175 385178 386180 390181 392181 395179
      397178 399176 400174
 0.25 389199 390197 389194 388192 387190 385189 383189 382189
      380190 378190 376190 374191 376192 376194 377195 379196
      380197 381197 382198 384199 385200 387200 389199
 0.25 397057 396053 392053 383048 375042 368035 359030 350026
      341020 332015 328012 325013 324016 321021 320026 319032
      319037 321043 324046 330054 341058 345060 347065 349070
      355072 361072 365076 372083 382087 387086 390082 392076
      393068 392063 395058 397057
 0.50 528772 527766 525764 517765 510765 504768 498772 494778
      491786 490791 491797 494805 496817 495827 494834 495840
      497850 498856 498862 496884 496896 497906 496916 497929
      499937 501948 504948 507946 511939 512929 513922 512916
      509907 510895 514877 512865 511860 511854 509842 507831
      507823 508812 513796 517789 524784 527779 528772
 0.50 464750 459751 454753 447755 444759 441764 438770 436773
      437775 442772 449771 452767 457763 460758 464752 464750
 0.50 445223 441222 436220 431218 426218 424221 422226 424229
      429232 433232 436230 440227 442225 445223
 0.50 422784 420780 417777 413776 407777 404780 401784 400788
      396792 387808 383808 379811 375813 372817 370820 368825
      366836 364841 363848 365854 371854 374851 376847 380837
      386830 388826 394826 398827 402824 407817 411806 414795
      415791 418792 420790 422784
 0.50 369896 369887 367882 361871 359869 355868 352869 350871
      345882 338892 335896 333902 330907 326911 315917 313922
      311928 310935 310943 309951 307958 304971 306976 310976
      313975 318972 322969 330960 336951 350932 355923 362913
      366904 369896
 0.50 360049 361043 359038 355036 350035 344030 337025 332019
      327017 324020 323027 324033 327042 333048 343049 352052
      358051 360049
 1.00 350917 351912 349908 346912 341917 337921 334925 332930
      331934 332939 337936 343932 345928 348921 350917
 1.00 337041 337038 336038 335039 333039 333040 333041 335042
      337041 337041
 1.00 323960 322958 323956 321955 320956 319956 318958 318960
      318962 319963 321963 322962 323960 323960

$$





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