Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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593
FXUS04 KWBC 291900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND EVOLVING TROWAL WILL SHIFT
THE EXPANSIVE MOD-HVY PCPN AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO-EASTERN WY AND
INTO NORTHERN KS...ALL OF NE...AND SOUTHERN SD. INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
ROBUST ALONG-STREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEST OF THE AMPLIFYING...MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD THE
AXIS OF MAX PW AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX WILL EXPAND
W-NW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE STRONG E-NE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS ALLOWING FOR OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO THE QPF. WPC
CONTINUED TO NOTE A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 24 HR AREAL-AVERAGE QPF
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (AROUND 2") NOTED
OVER CENTRAL NE WHERE THERE STATIC STABILITY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST WITH SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE
700-400 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES) NOTED PER THE MODELS.


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND OH VALLEY...

SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A
RECYCLING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO EAST TEXAS NNE ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. POSITIVE PW AND
850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES DURING THIS PERIOD (2 AND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS RESPECTIVELY) ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST COMPARED
TO PRIOR HIGH-IMPACT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN RECENT WEEKS...IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE PROXIMITY WELL DOWNSTREAM (SE) OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
SURFACE FRONT...COINCIDENT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION S-SE-E OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL
LEAD TO REDEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CELL TRAINING... ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS EAST
TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WHERE THE S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL AND AROUND THE SAME OR GREATER MAGNITUDE
AS THE MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS (EAST OF THE DRY LINE). THE AIRMASS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER-CENTRAL TX COAST...IS FAIRLY WELL
CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 9-10C AND SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS...THE 12Z NAM CONEST...12Z RGEM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NSSL-WRF) ARE RATHER BULLISH WITH LOCALIZED 3-5+ INCH AMOUNTS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS AND NW OF THE HOUSTON AREA. AT LEAST
THROUGH 12Z SAT...WPC CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
WITH THE QPF DETAILS NORTH OF HOUSTON-GALVESTON...THOUGH GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF HIGHEST 24 HOUR AMOUNTS (2-3+ INCHES FROM 00Z SAT-00Z SUN)
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST...

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING SLOWLY FROM THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
AMPLIFYING THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS AREAS OF
LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS SAT AFTN WITH THE STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
(WHERE THERE WAS GOOD MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.75").

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 497326 490323 489322 488317 489309 493306 490299 489293
      490286 494280 497276 501272 506271 512273 516275 517273
      519274
 0.01 537196 536190 536181 536174 533171 529164 522157 492133
      478121 473097 468077 465067 461057 454035 452025 450013
      447956 446945 445931 444926 444920 440909 434887 426864
      420840 414817 412807 410801 408797 402788 397781 390772
      388769 382770 379772 372774 368771 366767 364763 360762
      355763 352766 348773 346776 343779 332780 330784 331789
      336789 339788 342788 341791 340796 338801 335806 333809
      326811 315812 310812 307812 297812 293811 288811 284810
      279811 275813 273817 272820 275823 282829 297837 307841
      315845 318847 320853 325859 322862 321868 318873 315875
      312871 308869 303867 300889 297899 294906 286922 276939
      265955 257969 257976 258980 259984 262983 268983 270984
      271986 269992 270997 271003 275004 281004 284002 294990
      299983 308981 317977 326971 330968 336967 339967 341970
      342975 345984 347989 349992 365004 372009 378014 377024
      376031 374036 364036 357038 352039 349042 344049 338056
      337069 349070 354069 356071 354073 349080 349082 351086
      354091 354095 352099 349098 344089 339082 334081 332079
      329081 330088 331099 327105 326109 330111 334113 336117
      343136 366166 369169 372174 372178 370180 364179 361180
      357182 348182 344171 343168 336166 332164 327163 326166
      328169 332176 337184 341193 343197 347200 349197 351192
      355189 361191 376202 384207 393213 397215 401215 403214
      402210 400205 401199 402196 405196 409199 417203 419204
      422201 424198 423191 424187 427187 430187 432172 431166
      426163 423160 423155 424141
 0.01 424141 425136 426134 430130 437123 438127 437129 434135
      433144 433150 435161 442169 446173 444177 439185 448194
      455191 458187 463184 464179 461176 458174 456172 456168
      458166 460164 463165 467169 472171 476175 481178 484181
      505193 509196 515199 523208 526209 530205 537196
 0.01 509807 509802 507796 505792 502790 496785 492777 490774
      486775 480782 478791 477796 475800 472807 469816 466819
      465824 464829 464834 466844 470844 473848 478852 485851
      493852 497850 498847 499841 499835 499828 498822 497817
      499814 503813 506815 509810 509807
 0.01 464226 464221 463218 454215 447215 440216 435219 430224
      434230 440230 446228 453227 461229 464226
 0.01 432757 431747 428740 422730 417717 411706 405696 398686
      392683 388681 382680 378680 376682 369684 365688 358696
      356703 355706 356710 361722 366726 370728 378735 386743
      392752 394757 395761 396768 400774 404776 416774 426772
      429767 430763 432757
 0.01 416137 416130 414126 410126 407128 403127 400125 397125
      394125 394128 398131 403132 406133 409137 413140 416137
 0.01 420095 420086 418079 416077 413077 409080 405084 402084
      399085 394098 388098 383101 379105 379110 382111 389111
      393110 395108 396103 397101 399102 402103 404100 404095
      405093 407090 409091 412096 414104 417102 420095
 0.25 527188 528181 527177 523171 518166 510163 506162 501163
      500165 496166 495170 497172 503177 509183 514187 520192
      526190 527188
 0.25 484135 482134 481133 480132 479132 477133 477134 477136
      477137 479137 481136 482136 484135
 0.25 446109 444105 445101 445095 442091 440088 437086 434088
      431092 431094 433099 433107 437108 440110 444110 446109
 0.25 443041 445033 444026 444016 442990 441981 440968 437945
      433924 427905 424895 421885 415868 402830 399818 397808
      397802 395797 392796 388796 379799 373805 369811 367821
      366825 366831 366836 364839 351850 349853 351855 349859
      347861 330866 324871 321877 314882 307888 302895 300902
      295920 292930 288937 285944 282952 280962 282971 285978
      293981 305974 311970 319966 333958 340953 348951 351953
      352957 353971 353976 356977 362977 366978 374993 385006
      389012 393021 396028 399037 402046 406053 411059 419064
      424069 427071 430070 435070 439068 441064 441057 442046
      443041
 0.25 432109 432107 430106 428105 427105 426106 425108 426110
      426111 428112 429112 430111 431109 432109
 0.25 413155 412150 410149 407147 405144 402141 399139 396140
      391142 386140 383135 384129 391119 393116 392114 386113
      381115 376119 371120 367119 361119 356117 351113 347113
      345116 348122 352126 364131 369131 374134 377139 380143
      384147 387153 387157 384159 380162 381167 383173 385179
      390183 394178 397172 400166 403161 413155
 0.25 388065 384063 379065 377064 371062 369065 373068 375071
      376078 377081 379078 381072 383069 387066 388065
 0.25 367052 367050 367049 365048 363048 361048 360048 359049
      359051 359052 361053 363053 365053 367052 367052
 0.50 440031 439007 438985 437973 436962 434952 432942 422904
      416885 411868 407859 405857 401857 397863 394862 391858
      387853 385850 381848 375849 369854 366863 361870 357875
      354877 351879 349878 343875 340873 335872 333876 334881
      337889 337895 335898 329902 321905 317905 315901 312895
      309892 306893 304896 302899 301908 299920 297926 290942
      287950 286954 285960 287968 288973 290976 296976 299973
      304968 311966 319962 331956 344947 347945 351944 357949
      361954 371956 377956 384954 387955 388959 387964 385968
      380975 377983 376986 378989 384995 389000 392006 397015
      400023 403030 408038 412043 416051 420057 426061 429059
      432055 435047 438039 440031
 0.50 392805 392803 390800 387801 385803 383805 381807 379809
      379814 381817 383818 386818 388817 390815 391812 392808
      392805
 0.50 364126 365124 365122 363121 361121 359121 357121 356122
      357124 358125 359125 361125 362126 364126 364126
 0.50 355122 354120 353119 352119 353122 354122 355122
 1.00 433023 435014 435004 434987 431973 427959 416938 412921
      410915 407919 401923 396925 394927 395931 399933 408940
      411945 412949 408964 407968 405970 400972 392981 391985
      394991 398003 404012 410024 413029 417033 423036 428034
      432029 433023
 1.00 392886 391881 390876 385870 382870 379872 375879 374882
      371882 368880 365882 363889 361892 358896 350899 344902
      339908 333907 327912 319910 315910 312911 311903 309898
      307896 305898 304902 302911 302922 299931 298940 294946
      292949 292954 294956 298956 307958 309960 314962 321958
      333951 339946 345941 353929 363918 369914 371911 372905
      383897 389891 392886
 1.50 429013 430005 430997 428983 426976 424973 421967 418966
      419972 419978 412980 406982 403986 402992 403998 408007
      415015 418019 423021 427018 429013
 1.50 338926 338919 336916 333914 330915 322919 319920 319917
      319913 314912 310914 307914 308909 306906 304908 305911
      304920 302930 300934 300939 299949 300952 303954 312956
      317957 319956 327952 334947 336945 336940 332933 338926
 2.00 329926 327922 323923 315926 310928 305933 302936 302941
      301946 303951 310953 313954 317954 320953 322949 325941
      325938 323935 326930 329926
 3.00 318943 317942 317941 316940 314940 313939 313937 312936
      310937 308938 308939 307941 306941 305943 306945 307946
      308947 309947 310948 312949 314949 316947 317945 318943

$$





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