Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/1200 UTC THRU JUL 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MIDWEST...

CONVECTION WAS NOT OVERLY WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY...BUT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE HAD LAID THE GROUND WORK FOR A MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
EVENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEWLY ARRIVED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SD/IA/IL. WITH VERY HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ALIGNING WITH THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN THE CONFLUENT
MID LEVEL / 700 MB FLOW TO THE REAR OF A 100-PLUS KNOT UPPER JET
AND THE NORTHWARD RETURNING / SURGING CAPE GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS POINTS TOWARD CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND FANNING OUT /
PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM OUT OF EASTERN NE/SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND
POINTS BEYOND. THE LATITUDE IS ALWAYS A DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST. IN THIS CASE THE CONVECTION SHOULD STRIKE SOME BALANCE
BETWEEN EASTWARD PROPAGATION IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...AND SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION TOWARD THE INFLOW AND CAPE GRADIENT. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH LOCAL OFFICES...WPC KEPT CONTINUITY BY LEANING
TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXPAND THE SWATH AND NUDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WE ALSO
PUSHED HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS POSSIBLE BY 12Z
THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE MODELS WILL NOT QUITE BE FAST ENOUGH WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE A PROGRESSIVE MCS.

WITH A PROGRESSIVE EVENT LIKE THIS THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE BE
TIED MORE TO THE INTENSE SHORT TERM RATES POSSIBLE WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. SOME TRAINING COULD OCCUR LATER WED NIGHT OVER PARTS
OF MN/IA/WI AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW VEERS AND BECOMES MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO WHAT SHOULD BE AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.


...SOUTHWEST...

IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL MONSOON DAY. TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE GREATER OUT OVER THE DESERTS AND EXTENDING UP INTO
SOUTHEAST NEVADA / NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED IN THAT AREA OWING TO A WEAKLY
DEFINED TROUGH DRIFTING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL LEND A
LITTLE GREATER ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO FORM
WHEREVER POCKETS OF HEATING / REDUCED CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR IT.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN COLORADO.
MOISTURE DEPTH AND CLOUD BASE INFLOW MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...BUT THIS MAY BE
AFTER MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN CONSUMED. OVERALL...SOME OF
THE MORE FAVORBALE TIMING OF FEATURES APPEARS TO OCCUR IN AZ/NV/UT
FOR A LITTLE GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS / FLASH FLOODING. WPC
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN...HOWEVER...THE COORDINATED SLIGHT RISK AREAS
OVER SE AZ AND PARTS OF CO AS WELL.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 493253 494249 493245 490239 488233 485231 481231 473237
      467237 460234 448234 444235 439238 435241 434244 436246
      440249 447252 460257 474260 478260 482261 484259 488257
      493253
 0.01 495678 494671 493664 488657 485655 481657 474665 458674
      459681 461687 458691 454695 452699 451704 454706 455707
      453709 448717 446722 442727 433726 429728 427731 430732
      431735 435735 441734 444734 443737 442742 440745 435746
      432748 430754 428759 429767 431771 435771 438770 441766
      444769 447773 452772 456770 459768 458776 457785 454795
      455803 458803 467799 473793 480785 484776 488767 491758
      494746 494733 490723 486715 487709 486700 490690 495678
 0.01 506029 507019 507006 502992 499987 495982 490981 486981
      484978 485967 485954 484946 482938 471927 468907 472893
      473890 473884 472876 471868 469860 463849 459844 452841
      446838 438841 434846 432848 430845 431837 431832 430828
      429824 428822 426819 422819 417822 412826 396843 387854
      381859 377860 373860 367856 365849 369844 375839 371828
      373823 376819 380814 384814 387816 386822 387826 389828
      393826 396825 400819 402812 404812 405815 406818 408819
      409815 412807 414802 418797 421792 423789 422783 419770
      413757 411749 417745 419737 419730 421726 424721 426717
      425712 422708 418709 416712 400731 395734 392738 389744
      388752 386768 382774 379778 374784 375792 380791 383789
      388784 392785 393787 393792 392796 388799 381802 376807
      373812 370815 367813 362817 357823 349834 345840 345842
      346845 348849 347852 345860 346867 348869 353868 357868
      359870 364874 373882 379891 385895 390898 394904 398903
      401894 408890 411889 414887 417898 434953 433962 432972
      430982 427991 427000 428002 431004 435010 437013 441015
      446013 448016 449020 455032 461043 464048 467055 469063
      472071 477069 481062 482050 484043 488037 491036 495037
      500037 502035 506029
 0.01 458702 456700 455703 454705 456707 457705 457704 458702
 0.01 441096 442090 441086 434083 428079 427077 428074 432073
      436072 437067 434056 440038 436033 431027 427027 425029
      422038 418045 416048 412049 406044 401041 396040 390039
      384043 380048 375055 374058 370061 366068 362071 358073
      351075 344078 335077 322075 315071 314067 316064 327064
      332064 333058 334056 332052 326048 315041 307038 303039
      299041 282036 274037 271039 270043 268045 268050 266053
      262051 256053 251055 249059 248065 250068 254074 263085
      267089 271095 280107 285114 293119 299123 302125 307126
      315127 316124 319125 328129 331128 333130 332132 331139
      333143 338148 348159 360161 369159 372156 374155 377155
      382157 385156 391151 403143 405142 406138 408135 409129
      412119 417113 423105 426105 428111 432109 433102 437096
      441096
 0.01 400991 400977 397968 396963 395956 395943 389938 389942
      387947 387954 386959 389968 392977 394986 398993 400991
 0.01 367798 364796 361796 354801 351801 350798 349792 350788
      352784 355779 359776 362772 364768 363762 361760 355761
      310811 302808 300805 303803 305800 306795 306792 305788
      302785 298782 293780 288779 282780 277782 270786 267788
      262790 255794 246805 243808 241813 243825 247825 249824
      250826 252831 255833 258834 260838 263840 269840 279839
      287840 292842 293847 288854 285877 281895 281905 282910
      283915 285927 284938 281947 275954 262981 262986 266988
      271989 276987 279985 279982 277978 278976 281975 288972
      289976 292977 298973 300964 305945 312924 314914 314901
      315893 315881 316869 316855 316849 315846 313842 312835
      313830 314828 316826 318823 322822 324831 326836 330835
      338831 341828 342829 345827 346825 347819 349815 353811
      362807 365805 366802 367798
 0.01 345171 345169 345167 345166 343165 341165 340164 338164
      336164 334163 332163 331163 329163 328163 329164 330166
      332167 334168 335169 337170 339171 340172 342172 344171
      345171
 0.01 348756 347752 346750 343749 341751 338753 337755 336758
      335760 336765 338765 341765 344763 346761 347758 348756
 0.01 324163 324160 322157 319155 317154 314153 312152 310152
      306152 304153 304155 306157 309159 311161 314162 318163
      321164 324163
 0.01 260013 260004 259998 255994 251991 245992 243998 244004
      245010 247016 248019 252020 256019 259014 260013
 0.25 497013 496010 496005 495002 492000 489000 487999 484000
      482002 482007 483010 486011 489012 491015 493018 495019
      496016 497013
 0.25 477709 475704 472703 468707 465712 463716 462723 458734
      454745 452750 451758 454759 458756 460750 462744 466734
      472725 474720 476714 477709
 0.25 473046 471035 469027 468019 470012 474004 472980 473964
      472950 466933 464920 461910 459899 459887 456874 452865
      448857 444851 441851 439854 439857 440863 438869 435871
      430872 422874 420877 419882 420889 422895 424904 426915
      433935 437953 439966 438973 437978 434986 433992 434997
      440002 444002 448000 450999 452000 455003 457012 460023
      463033 466043 469047 473046
 0.25 411106 412102 411099 406101 400108 395107 395103 399101
      399094 398091 396091 393095 382097 389103 389107 387110
      385111 382111 380107 379113 376119 372122 367119 365117
      362118 358120 354124 350133 347136 348141 353144 356144
      360140 366142 368141 371137 376134 381133 385132 389129
      392125 394119 398115 402114 407112 410108 411106
 0.25 411873 411870 411868 410867 410866 408865 407865 405866
      403868 403869 402871 401873 400876 400877 400878 400879
      402880 404879 406878 407878 407877 409876 409875 411873
      411873
 0.25 401074 401069 398067 397063 398059 398055 395054 392055
      390057 386065 380069 376076 376082 378085 381085 384076
      391075 393072 396073 400076 401074
 0.25 342100 343098 342096 342095 340095 338095 337097 338099
      338100 339101 341101 342100
 0.25 327111 327107 326104 323102 319098 315093 301078 296069
      295063 292057 287048 282046 278046 277049 280053 282057
      280064 277069 275070 273069 269065 266062 259060 257063
      258066 261070 265072 271075 273085 276092 280096 286103
      289108 295111 305114 311117 315118 322117 327111
 0.25 305886 301874 303859 300854 294857 296864 294871 291877
      291885 288892 288897 289906 290912 290921 292927 294929
      296928 301923 303917 304907 303893 305889 305886
 0.25 299819 297815 294814 288811 284805 281802 283802 289798
      291795 293790 286789 278790 262796 257799 252804 251809
      253812 260814 269824 269831 272833 277834 283835 287836
      289833 290826 293823 297821 299819
 0.50 467994 468984 468974 469962 468952 463940 460923 452891
      449886 445882 441877 433876 426877 422881 422888 424895
      426902 427911 429919 432926 436938 440955 443971 438988
      438993 439997 441999 444998 446990 448982 451983 452986
      454993 456000 460006 463005 465003 467994
 0.50 387125 388123 388120 388118 387117 385116 383116 381117
      381118 380119 379121 379123 379124 380126 382126 384127
      385127 386127 387125
 0.50 366135 367133 366130 366129 364128 362129 362130 361132
      361134 361135 363136 365136 366135
 0.50 321110 321106 320105 316101 307093 300084 294075 289072
      286071 283072 280076 278084 280089 285093 288097 292102
      300108 303104 306104 307106 311110 316114 321110
 0.50 300884 300882 299882 298884 300885 300884
 0.50 299910 299907 299905 298905 297906 296908 296910 297911
      299910 299910
 0.50 286818 281813 279805 272803 266800 262800 259801 254806
      254810 258810 264813 269818 275822 278823 283821 286818
 0.50 280796 279796 277796 277797 279797 280796
 1.00 464971 465964 464958 462954 461949 455928 453916 450904
      446896 441887 435883 430881 425883 425888 426892 429904
      430915 435926 438933 441945 443955 448964 452971 457979
      460981 461979 464971
 1.00 292085 292083 290082 289081 288081 286081 285082 284084
      284085 285087 286087 288088 290088 291087 292085
 1.00 276818 275815 273814 273813 271812 270814 271816 272817
      273818 274818 275818 276818
 1.50 461967 460959 457949 454932 450916 448910 445902 440899
      436894 432888 429887 430893 432900 432906 432911 433919
      437926 440931 442934 442940 443949 445957 449962 454966
      458969 461967
 2.00 451957 452954 451952 451949 450947 449945 449943 448942
      447940 445939 445940 445942 444945 444947 445949 445952
      446954 447956 447957 449958 450959 451957
 2.00 452932 451925 450920 448914 446909 445906 443910 441909
      438910 434911 435917 437921 440925 444925 447928 449932
      452932

$$




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