Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250938
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 25/1200 UTC THRU OCT 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL FAVOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WA/OR/NRN
CA COASTAL RANGES...ALONG WITH THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN SIERRAS.
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED RANGES... THOUGH PER THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED 24 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3-5+
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. WPC QPF INCORPORATED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z RUNS...AGAIN UTILIZING THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF AND RGEM OUTPUT ALONG WITH SOME OF THE 4KM
GUIDANCE (NAM CONEST...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...AND NSSL-WRF).


...NORTHEAST...

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SERIOUSLY LACKING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...AND WHILE SOMEWHAT ROBUST...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
WILL PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER OFF THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FETCH DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE FAVORING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY MODEST...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU.


DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE ROCKIES...

ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WHICH THEN
PROGRESSES INLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH IT REMAINING WET OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT LESS WIDESPREAD INLAND TOWARD THE
ROCKIES AS MOISTURE DECREASES.  MODEL DETAILS CONTINUE TO VARY DUE
TO SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF THE DEAMPLIFYING
PATTERN...WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED TO ADDRESS
THE LINGERING SPREAD.  BY MONDAY THOUGH...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECONDARY SURGE IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANA...AS THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE LATEST
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF RAINFALL MAY SLIP TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA.

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

PREFERRED AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR
THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY ENTERING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WHICH LEAVES THE NAM AND GFS NEAR
THE SLOW AND FAST/STRONG EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN THE NEAR PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH CREATES A LONG ANTICYCLONIC
TRAJECTORY FOR MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE
MIDWEST.  EVEN WITHIN THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS THOUGH...SOME SPREAD
REMAINS WITH THE GFS FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST...THUS A SOLUTION
ABOUT MIDWAY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE SPREAD NARROWS.  THE
RESULT IS A NARROW AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AVERAGING 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

NORTHEAST...

THE CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BOTH DAYS 2
AND 3...WITH MORE ON DAY 2 DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
MODEL FORECASTS WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE
PREFERRED OVER THE GFS DUE TO HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION.

HURLEY/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 474619 483630 487637 491648 494657 495662 499661 505662
      509663 513670 514675 516678 517685 517691 517696 515701
      513708 509714 502726 501731 500735 496741 497756 496768
      504780 510794 515813 517824 517831 516837 516842 515845
      512851 508857 500858 492847 485829 478819 475816 471816
      468814 464814 462813 458813 451814 447813 441814 435816
      428813 425807 422800 417802 415801 413798 408792 403792
      399796 394803 383810 379815 376815 376810 379804 384799
      389794 398791 403788 406785 408781 409778 408772 408763
      412756 416751 419749 420744 422733 426727 431723 433722
      434716 434708 435700 439693 441691 441685 440682 440675
      442667 446662 447648 448642 454632 456624 474619
 0.01 533226 542209 543208 545193 542181 536176 521162 519161
      515160 513157 509154 497144 491138 489135 485133 480127
      475128 469127 463130 456132 452139 450142 448143 446140
      448137 447133 442132 440132 439134 437140 433152 432156
      433160 435163 439165 444169 447172 448177 448180 445181
      442181 438181 434182 434175 432170 430166 426163 424162
      424166 426174 428177 428182 425184 422182 418175 415175
      413179 414184 412192 408193 406198 401202 395197 392197
      390197 389197 389196 388194 388193 384193 382191 379189
      376188 374188 373189 371189 370191 370192 371194 371197
      373201 378206 381208 384212 384215 382217 377216 368213
      364212 360213 355212 351213 345218 343222 343226 344228
      350230 355230 362229 365228 368230 377237 382242 387247
      391252 398257 407260 412260 421260 426264 435275 438285
      442297 448299 454301 458301 462301 465299 471295 481286
      492275 495272 499272 504272 508270 512264 515261 518260
      523257 527247 529240 533226
 0.01 478182 477178 473176 470174 466174 462181 457184 452188
      453192 452198 451204 454207 459203 466202 471198 475189
      478182
 0.01 466169 466167 465167 464165 462165 461164 459164 458165
      458167 457170 457172 458173 460173 461174 463173 465171
      466169
 0.01 456110 456104 455098 453095 450094 446094 443097 441095
      438096 424088 426096 430102 429105 425105 419111 416112
      410111 409103 407101 406110 405113 402113 402119 406122
      411127 421129 426127 432119 438116 443116 448117 452117
      454115 456110
 0.01 425196 425194 425191 424191 423191 422192 421193 421195
      421197 422198 423198 423197 425196
 0.01 402843 401838 398835 391835 382840 377846 372853 369858
      369862 371867 375867 380866 384863 390858 396853 401846
      402843
 0.01 251794 249793 247792 244792 242794 240795 238798 236800
      237803 239804 243803 244802 247800 250798 250796 251794
 0.25 532206 533200 532195 531192 528190 525187 521185 518181
      517176 514171 510165 504162 501161 501155 497149 493145
      489143 486140 483137 479137 476138 476140 478139 481139
      487146 487150 486155 480156 475156 470151 466150 464151
      464155 467158 471160 476164 480170 484175 487182 488192
      483197 478201 471205 467208 461209 456212 449214 443215
      437216 421214 420211 417209 413208 411211 401206 394202
      387199 380195 378196 378199 380203 389213 399221 398224
      395225 387222 382222 379224 380229 382232 386237 391242
      401250 409252 415253 435257 442261 446265 452277 457282
      461284 465285 468284 472282 477278 486271 497265 502263
      506258 511252 513248 515242 517233 517225 517219 519213
      524212 529210 532206
 0.25 512213 512206 510201 506200 503199 499196 498195 493196
      492201 495203 499203 501207 503210 506214 510214 512213
 0.25 487676 488673 487672 486671 485669 485668 483668 481670
      482670 482672 484674 486675 487676 487676
 0.25 498801 497793 495789 490780 486773 482764 478760 475759
      470760 467764 466774 465782 466789 470792 473793 482794
      488800 494805 497804 498801
 0.25 479711 477706 476701 477698 476690 474685 471681 467677
      464675 458677 457677 462681 465684 467691 469697 466699
      462701 459705 456710 454716 448724 445728 446738 443741
      439744 432753 431759 432762 434762 438759 441754 448748
      451742 450737 452733 455728 457724 463720 468720 473722
      476720 478717 479711
 0.25 452164 453161 453160 452159 451157 450156 450155 448155
      446154 445153 443154 442154 441156 441159 442161 443162
      444162 445163 447164 448165 450166 451166 452164 452164
 0.25 429187 428187 427186 426187 427187 428187 429187
 0.25 374223 374221 373220 372219 370219 369222 371223 373223
      374223
 0.50 512244 513239 514233 512226 507220 502215 498209 492208
      489206 487203 481203 471209 458214 450217 442217 437218
      432220 429219 425220 423222 422225 424227 427229 431230
      437231 441229 448229 453227 459227 466228 468227 471224
      473221 477221 484224 485226 485230 484232 482232 477229
      465230 452233 441234 436235 433236 429234 422231 420229
      418230 415229 416223 417219 417216 416213 413212 408215
      404210 399207 393203 386202 386207 388209 394215 399219
      402223 401225 398227 392226 385225 384228 385231 390237
      395242 401246 406248 419250 432252 448254 451255 453258
      454264 456271 461276 466277 472275 483268 493264 501259
      512244
 0.50 514189 514183 514179 509172 506170 502169 498169 496166
      488162 483161 482163 482166 484169 489175 492183 497187
      500187 504189 510191 514189
 0.50 497154 496151 494149 493148 493147 492147 493150 494152
      495153 496154 497154 497154
 1.00 509243 510235 507229 503220 500215 495212 491214 488213
      486210 482209 477210 470215 462219 458221 462224 466223
      471220 474217 480219 485222 490226 491230 491235 486236
      483242 481243 480241 479235 476233 474233 472237 473242
      477245 479249 477254 476258 482260 492258 500253 509243
 1.00 458239 459236 456235 451236 443236 433238 423235 418234
      413231 413228 414225 416220 413217 408217 405214 400211
      397208 395206 392206 391209 394213 398216 404218 406221
      406225 406228 405232 401229 392230 393235 397240 400242
      406244 416245 427247 434244 443243 458239
 1.00 447224 446223 445222 443222 443223 444224 446224 447224
 1.00 430226 431226 433226 434225 434224 432223 431223 429223
      428223 428224 429225 430226
 1.50 504239 503234 502230 501227 500224 498221 497219 493219
      492222 493225 494228 495232 497234 499237 501238 504239
 1.50 495252 495249 494247 494246 493244 492243 492242 490240
      489239 487240 486241 486243 485246 485248 485251 485252
      487254 488254 490254 492254 493253 495252
 1.50 428242 426240 424239 421237 418236 414235 412235 411235
      408237 407238 405240 407240 410240 413241 417242 420243
      423245 426244 428242
 1.50 413224 414222 414220 414219 412218 410218 410219 409220
      409223 408225 409226 410226 411225 412225 413224
 1.50 403240 401239 400237 400236 399236 399237 400237 401240
      403242 404242 405241 403240
 1.50 399215 400213 398211 398210 397209 395209 394210 395210
      396212 396213 398214 399215 399215
 2.00 416239 419240 421240 423241 423240 422240 421239 419237
      417237 416237 414237 414238 415238 416239

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 460624 465629 470635 477641 482648 483653 483657 484661
      486666 489670 490676 490680 489683 485685 484694 482698
      479701 472706 468710 465715 460731 455740 450747 445753
      441760 440773 437775 433773 432764 428755 426750 425744
      432740 440737 440733 435733 426734 430726 434720 439713
      451699 455693 458690 456683 447686 444676 439674 434667
      433660 434654 437646 442640 445629
 0.01 542200 541192 540185 539180 536174 528161 526159 526155
      529149 531142 530135 527116 524110 520105 510094 503085
      496077 492073 488072 485074 481077 478083 474089 473093
      474097 475107 478113 482119 483124 481127 476130 472130
      471134 464133 460132 459130 459127 461127 464127 465125
      466115 464108 460103 459094 457086 455078 453072 449068
      445065 443068 440069 441077 442082 441089 438094 434094
      431092 428089 423093 421093 420097 420102 418106 412103
      407102 405104 400108 396112 395117 398118 403118 406120
      411120 419123 422129 419135 411157 411162 412166 414168
      418168 422165 425159 427149 426140 426134 428124 431116
      436115 439114 441117 444123 446130 444137 441141 437143
      433151 434155 435159 439160 440163 443168 444177 443181
      444185 445193 448196 452197 460187 464181 466175 470171
      475170 483177 488181 493186 496192 498199 494203 489200
      477203 465207 453210 443212 438212 435209 433202 429197
      425198 420203 412214 409220 410223 408227 404232 402233
      400236 395240 394245 396248 401251 407253 411253 418255
      426257 432257 444256 450255 453256 456254 463254 469254
      480262 483264 487262 491260 493251 495244 496241 499241
      502246 504253 506253 506248 510248 512250 516252 519252
      516236 514229 512222 510215 508206 511204 514207 517212
      527222 529224 532225 535224 537221
 0.01 496937 496927 496922 494919 493911 490901 485889 481884
      478877 471868 463858 455855 448859 441860 435860 429859
      421859 417860 415862 413866 410873 412882 412891 419903
      427910 431914 436917 441921 447924 456930 466938 469942
      474945 479950 482950 484952 488951 492947 496937
 0.01 494975 494967 493962 491959 486957 482956 479954 476956
      474959 474967 474972 477975 481977 486978 491977 494975
      494975
 0.01 415069 411061 406056 401055 398057 393064 388065 386070
      383073 382079 382085 386087 391087 395086 404084 406082
      409077 414071 415069
 0.01 378080 378078 378076 378075 377073 376072 374072 372073
      372075 371077 371079 371082 372083 373083 375083 376082
      377081 378080
 0.25 516187 517184 516181 513180 512176 509164 504153 496147
      489139 488143 489145 492150 496153 494158 488164 489170
      491175 498183 507188 512190 516187
 0.25 495223 496215 493209 491206 490206 484208 480208 475210
      465215 443218 433221 431223 429226 435228 439231 440234
      437236 433237 428241 422240 420241 420245 426247 432246
      439246 450244 460242 463241 465239 464236 459234 454234
      451234 448232 451227 456226 462226 466223 471221 478221
      487226 493225 495223
 0.25 506120 506112 505106 503102 501098 497095 494097 492104
      491109 491114 493120 497120 499121 503122 506120
 0.25 487246 487242 485240 483240 481239 479236 477235 476235
      472236 470238 471242 473244 476246 479248 482249 486248
      487246
 0.25 469641 464635 456631 449629 450634 452637 452644 451649
      448652 445655 445661 451660 454662 458663 461659 462654
      462649 465645 468643 469641
 0.25 481160 479157 474154 468148 465145 459145 456146 453143
      447149 442149 438151 439156 442160 450165 452166 455162
      458158 463160 466163 471164 479162 481160
 0.25 465915 465908 462901 458898 453895 448893 444893 443896
      444901 447906 452910 455913 460916 463916 465915
 0.25 454110 454108 454103 452100 450098 446099 444099 441101
      439102 438105 439108 442110 443112 445115 446117 450117
      452115 453112 454110
 0.25 405072 404070 403068 401069 399069 398069 396070 394071
      392073 391075 392076 393078 395078 397079 399079 401079
      402077 403076 404074 405072 405072
 0.50 490221 490219 489216 489215 487214 486213 484213 482213
      480213 479214 477215 477217 478218 480219 481220 483221
      485221 486221 488222 489222 490221
 0.50 483245 483244 481243 480242 480241 478239 477239 475239
      474239 474242 474243 476245 477245 478246 479247 481247
      482247 483245 483245
 0.50 459240 458237 456236 455237 453237 452237 451238 449238
      448239 449240 451240 452241 454241 455241 456241 458240
      459240
 0.50 439241 438240 437240 436241 438241 439241
 0.50 447109 445108 445109 447110 447109


24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 522253 521245 519235 516228 512220 509214 503207 499203
      491200 484201 478205 467210 462213 455218 443222 439226
      434233 431240 430246 426249 424251 423255 423260 423266
      425268 427267 431275 431284 434292 445302 450304 458303
      464303 467302 471303 478304 487306 493307 497307 499306
      504300 509292 512285 514274 516267 519263 522253
 0.01 528204 529198 529195 527190 525188 521183 517177 512173
      506168 505161 501155 499148 494142 486132 484129 481129
      478130 474129 470125 467130 465133 462133 460136 461140
      461145 458147 456149 455152 461156 463159 466162 471164
      476167 479170 481169 485164 487157 490154 491156 493166
      495172 498177 498171 498165 501166 503173 504176 504181
      505190 507198 510204 514209 518213 522214 524212 528204
 0.01 538933 538925 536920 529915 520914 512916 504921 501925
      497929 486942 477960 476967 475973 475980 477984 477990
      480994 483999 485005 485012 486015 486020 484025 481029
      480034 480044 481050 482055 480057 476059 472063 469073
      468079 466088 470098 475104 485106 493102 499098 505091
      507085 507078 507070 506067 506062 509058 510053 511048
      512040 509029 509027 507025 506023 506019 510011 511006
      512999 517991 520986 523983 531965 536947 538933
 0.01 521881 520867 517861 509859 500859 496858 494855 490849
      486843 486838 486834 486827 487821 486810 487806 487799
      488793 484793 460783 457781 452780 446778 442771 439767
      436765 433767 431771 431776 432780 434785 435791 436793
      434796 428801 424806 422811 421817 422821 420825 418827
      418833 421842 418850 415856 374902 358930 354937 350943
      348950 349958 350964 351968 352969 356968 364965 368964
      373965 379968 383968 387970 389969 394969 400966 411959
      423947 428940 430935 438919 443903 446893 453887 459885
      464890 475900 481904 485907 493912 496914 500915 505916
      511911 518895 521881
 0.01 471676 470672 467673 465672 461672 459671 457669 455667
      453668 453673 456675 458676 460677 464677 467676 469677
      471676
 0.01 469704 468697 464694 461689 459688 457690 458699 454704
      451701 446698 446700 448706 446711 443712 442715 446716
      448718 447722 444727 442728 443730 446728 450718 460712
      464709 467705 469704
 0.01 469927 469920 469915 464915 460915 457920 455923 454930
      454933 457935 462935 466933 468930 469927
 0.01 455115 456109 455105 452097 436095 432093 430089 428087
      426089 429104 427106 425105 419109 418112 415115 410114
      408112 406115 409122 415120 420117 426119 431115 437112
      442111 444113 455115
 0.01 455976 455971 454966 449959 442958 438959 435961 431966
      428970 426975 423982 420989 416996 413005 411009 409010
      406009 402009 391022 386026 382031 378039 376044 375049
      377065 373069 376078 380083 386084 389086 391084 397080
      407082 412073 412068 411063 408056 408045 411035 415026
      418021 422013 426006 433999 438997 445993 452984 455976
 0.01 450078 450075 448070 447068 447065 445063 443064 442065
      440067 441069 443072 444075 446076 448078 450078
 0.25 511260 512253 512244 511239 508232 502223 495216 490214
      483214 475217 467222 460228 453234 447243 446248 445256
      445270 446284 446291 450294 456295 461295 471295 490295
      499293 503291 505285 507279 507271 511260
 0.25 469281 469280 467278 466277 464276 462277 461278 460280
      459280 459282 459283 461283 462283 463283 465282 466282
      467281 468281 469281
 0.25 462856 462851 462846 460839 458832 455825 451826 445829
      443834 441837 441842 444847 448853 451856 457858 460858
      462856
 0.25 402910 402906 401904 396902 390904 387907 380915 375923
      370932 368938 368944 369946 373946 377943 384938 391930
      396922 401913 402910
 0.50 506258 505253 506247 507240 503232 498226 492227 487229
      473230 467235 462237 456241 452247 453251 458254 462256
      471258 477261 480264 483266 489268 496272 497270 498265
      501261 506258

$$





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