Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 15/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

A ROBUST LOOKING MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE...DIRECTED INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO.  MODEL AGREEMENT IS SUCH THAT A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO QPF
MAKES SENSE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST.  THE MAXIMA ARE TARGETING
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
AID LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME. THE WPC QPF HAS AMOUNTS NEAR 1
INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND SPOT MAXIMA AROUND 2 INCHES LIQUID ATOP
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM/SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. WPC USED THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM CONUS NEST/12Z CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM/12Z HIGH RES ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A BASIS FOR QPF...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY.

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN/HIGH PLAINS...

A PERIOD OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED AS A
MID-UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A COUPLED
JET REGION THAT CROSSES THE RANGES OF WYOMING AND PROGRESSES
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER SOUTH...MOIST
CONFLUENT FLOW WITH EMBEDDED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL
VELOCITY MAXIMA CROSS THE WASATCH MNTNS OF UT AND ACROSS THE
RANGES OF WESTERN CO.  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN CO DUE TO
THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT.
IN TURN...THE LIFT CORRESPONDS WITH A JET MAX EXTENDING OUT OF AZ
ACROSS CO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH EMBEDDED UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA.  SEE THE WINTER WEATHER DESK GRAPHICS/DISCUSSION FOR
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
MANUAL QPF BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH THE HIGH RES ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE 12Z GFS/NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM QPF.

...OH-TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/ MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LONG ISLAND NY AND NEARBY SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ...

THE PATTERN SHOWS AN INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/LONG ISLAND NY/ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE COAST THU MORNING...CREATING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH
A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CROSSING THE OH-TN
VALLEYS.

AN ENERGETIC UPPER JET MOVING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND PA/WV ON THU RESULTS IN BROAD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU.  THIS
RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS
OWING TO LOCALLY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN BANDS OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPING WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION.

BASED ON CONSENSUS...WPC USED THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM CONUS NEST/12Z
CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/12Z HIGH RES ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A BASIS FOR
QPF...WHICH ALLOWED US TO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML




THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 525258 522255 517254 514251 512247 508237 503231 501225
      500219 497216 493214 483212 479209 473208 469207 466212
      457211 449212 443213 438213 435214 431216 428219 424222
      419223 417220 418216 417211 418204 419201 421201 423203
      424198 425192 428189 429185 427182 428178 435170 438168
      443168 445170 445175 443180 440185 440191 439197 441201
      443205 444205 455191 460190 462186 468180 470175 474174
      482169 487170 490173 494174 497177 508191 514198 517201
      519199 522200 525197 528191 529185 528179 524168 520162
      511147 505139 501130 500124 501116 500113 500108 501100
      500087 501075 502059 503055 504047 504032 505022 503016
      500986 499980 499972 499956 499948 497943 495934 493932
      494929 496924 497919 497913 498906 499899 501889 506868
      507857 507849 508844 510837 514835 513825 512820 509789
      504760 501733 499726 498718 497710 495705 493691 490680
      488665 485656 484649 481644 480637 479639 478645 477648
      474649 470651 467654 465659 462663 459669 458674 456697
      454703 451707 447709 444712 446732 449731 450736 447739
      444740 442742 439741 436739 433737 429737 423740 422728
      423716 424705 425691 428679 431675 428673 423672 422666
      419661 416658 413656 409654 404656 402659 399662 397667
      393674 391678 388681 379685 375686 373690 370692 366694
      360700 359705 356710 352717 350729 351734 354737 359745
      362749 368748 370745 372743 374744 373754 370763 370769
      368774 367783 368793 371797 368801 365807 354820 348829
      344838 342843 342849 340859 337869 337877 338883 338896
      338909 337913 336920 337935 337938 336941 334943 331946
      330949 328954 330956 334956 337954 343947 345945 347941
      348936 348931 348924 350917 351911 353907 359897 363895
      367898 371899 374903 380927 380940 382943 387943 393939
      398934 412911
 0.01 412911 416904 419898 424893 425888 426883 428874 431865
      433854 434847 436843 438834 441827 443823 443816 440806
      433791 433786 432784 429783 425779 423777 421775 421772
      422762 426761 429764 434768 437772 445767 450765 456765
      457769 457772 455778 450784 447792 448797 450804 454811
      459817 460823 461827 463830 464834 467841 468854 469865
      467870 467876 465885 463894 463909 467915 470921 470928
      468940 469952 469963 467972 466980 467987 467995 466006
      460003 456997 455994 454989 452985 452980 454976 454969
      451961 450957 449952 447948 447944 447937 444935 442936
      442949 438959 433966 432969 430973 428978 428982 426987
      426993 422011 420015 419021 420028 426044 425049 421053
      420054 417054 412052 404050 401048 398050 393055 386059
      375050 368047 358046 353046 353042 352040 316066 311072
      305077 299079 296080 294083 290089 285093 284099 283105
      278111 271116 267118 260121 256126 255132 257137 262142
      274152 279153 281151 284148 287146 291142 294135 297131
      301130 304130 305133 303139 300141 299146 298151 299155
      300163 300172 305177 307180 312181 319180 326176 330174
      332171 341169 340165 338163 334162 331159 329156 329151
      329147 332145 336140 339137 344140 347141 352141 356140
      361142 368146 373150 379154 386154 392154 394155 394159
      390167 385177 384182 385185 387189 389188 394183 397182
      400182 400185 398189 397194 401212 405219 409223 411227
      414229 421231 424231 427233 429231 434233 437231 439234
      439236 438243 441244 449243 455244 458242 466242 475245
      479246 482250 486256 493262 495266 497272 498279 500284
      502286 508302
 0.01 487236 488231 489229 487226 484225 481224 478220 476222
      474224 473229 474232 476232 478231 481231 485233 486235
      487236
 0.01 442882 440878 437878 437883 435887 434892 434896 432900
      431904 431909 433911 436909 438904 439901 439894 441890
      442884 442882
 0.01 426098 425093 423088 425082 423077 423070 422069 421072
      420079 418083 417088 419090 419095 417098 418102 421102
      424099 426098
 0.01 416137 416132 416128 413124 409127 403128 399132 394135
      392136 391139 395142 398148 401150 403148 408145 413143
      416137
 0.01 418048 418046 418045 417043 415043 413040 412040 412043
      413045 415048 417048 418048 418048
 0.01 385193 386191 385190 384189 384188 382186 380185 379183
      379182 377182 377185 379186 380188 381190 383192 384193
      385194 385193
 0.01 398023 399021 398021 397018 395016 393018 393020 393022
      393023 395025 395027 397025 398023 398023
 0.01 388107 389104 389102 390100 388098 387100 386100 385100
      383099 381099 380101 379103 379105 379108 380110 381110
      382111 384112 385111 386111 387109 387108 388107
 0.01 360112 359109 357109 355107 353107 352108 353110 354111
      355111 356112 358113 360112
 0.01 359943 359941 359938 359936 357934 355932 354932 353932
      353934 354936 354938 355941 355943 357943 359943 359943
 0.01 297788 297786 296785 294785 292786 291787 289789 288791
      288793 289795 289797 289799 290800 292800 293799 294797
      294796 294794 295792 296790 296788 297788
 0.01 299006 299998 299989 298983 298975 294972 290974 290979
      291981 293983 293987 293991 291993 289997 293004 296006
      299006
 0.01 293893 293889 291889 289891 287893 285893 283896 280897
      278899 278902 280904 284902 286900 288900 290897 291895
      293893
 0.01 247829 246821 246813 242810 238814 236820 237828 238836
      240840 243846 245845 245841 246835 247829
 0.01 235792 235790 234789 234790 232792 232794 231796 230796
      230798 230800 231802 232803 232802 233801 234800 234798
      234796 234794 234792 235792
 0.25 484138 483133 481129 478125 475123 470121 466123 466128
      469132 471135 472141 477143 482143 484138 484138
 0.25 467155 468152 468150 467149 466147 465147 464146 463145
      461145 459145 458148 457149 457150 457151 457152 457155
      457157 458159 459158 460157 461158 463158 465157 466157
      467155 467155
 0.25 462104 461099 459095 455092 452093 445099 443101 439099
      431102 425108 424112 426116 431118 435117 438115 443115
      446111 447106 456110 462104
 0.25 412692 410684 408681 405681 402682 398686 397692 398700
      400708 400714 399728 399734 400742 401747 405751 409748
      410742 411728 412716 413709 411704 411698 412692
 0.25 415804 412784 410780 408778 402780 398785 392790 386793
      380798 376803 372810 370813 366815 365818 363823 360828
      354833 350839 350847 354854 357855 360854 365847 368841
      371835 377830 385829 387827 388830 389833 390844 389854
      388863 389874 390883 392893 396899 400900 403898 406892
      409883 411875 413866 412855 413844 413821 415813 415804
 0.25 416064 414059 409057 405055 400058 396060 392062 387063
      383069 380072 378069 376063 370060 368057 368053 361053
      356055 351057 345055 333052 327052 325053 324057 327061
      330064 332069 331071 328071 323073 319077 315081 311083
      302089 296095 292108 290112 291118 295121 303121 308123
      311126 314131 319135 323133 327130 334123 342124 347119
      351122 353117 349113 345103 354085 351080 348077 343076
      347073 353066 355064 357065 361069 366071 369074 372078
      373084 377087 382087 394086 398088 404086 407083 409079
      414072 416064
 0.25 407117 407111 405109 396110 391112 388116 379121 371126
      370128 370132 370136 370141 374143 378140 380135 383130
      387127 394121 398118 403116 407117
 0.25 367124 367122 366121 365120 363120 362121 363123 364125
      366125 367124
 0.25 363063 363061 363058 361058 360058 359059 357060 357061
      359062 361064 362064 363063
 0.50 412071 411066 407065 403066 399069 396070 392067 389068
      386072 388075 393075 396076 401078 404076 408075 412071
      412071
 0.50 406796 406791 402790 400792 395793 387796 381802 380806
      383809 389806 396807 397814 399827 400837 398845 397857
      396868 398874 401876 403874 404870 405859 406848 405836
      406824 406813 405802 406796
 0.50 374071 375069 375066 373064 371063 370063 369064 369066
      371068 373070 374071 374071
 0.50 341107 340093 338086 336082 331077 327078 323082 319085
      313086 308089 300097 297101 295109 296113 298114 305116
      311118 316120 319122 322121 325117 329112 334110 339109
      341107
 0.50 342061 341059 341058 339056 338055 336055 334054 332054
      330053 329053 327054 326055 326057 327058 328059 329059
      330060 332061 334062 335062 337062 337063 338063 339063
      341062 342061
 1.00 331101 331092 327097 323093 319091 317091 316095 318099
      318103 315105 311107 312109 315110 319108 322107 325105
      328102 331101
 1.00 335058 334056 332056 331055 330055 329057 330058 332059
      334059 335058
 1.00 303106 304104 303103 301102 300103 299104 299105 299106
      301107 302106 303106

$$





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