Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 291705
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 30/0000 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND LURES PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT FROM SOUTH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CLOSE TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TX AND NM DUE TO AN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.  A NESDIS BRIEFING
INDICATED THAT A REASONABLE ANALOG TO THIS EVENT IS FEBRUARY
11-12, 2005 (THOUGH THAT EVENT INVOLVED A STRONGER OVERALL
SYSTEM).  A BROAD REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PWS) WILL RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE INFLUX, ON THE ORDER
OF FOUR SIGMAS ABOVE THE NORM FOR LATE JANUARY.  INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF AZ, NM, AND WESTERN TX.  THE AREA OF GREATEST GUIDANCE
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY IS NEAR THE NM/NORTHWEST TX BORDER, WHERE THE
GUIDANCE (MESOSCALE AND 10+ KM RESOLUTION ALIKE) DISAGREE WITH HOW
FAR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  ISOLATED
HEAVY TOTALS OF 2-3" LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
TERRAIN REGIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM.
USED A COMBINATION OF 12Z WPC CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z GEFS- AND
CLIMATOLOGY-BASED QPF REFORECAST FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS REGION
-- WHICH RESEMBLES A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE DAY 1 QPF
GUIDANCE.  THIS LED TO SMALL TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  FOR
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, CONSULT THE WPC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION AND OUR WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES ONLINE.

NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS NY STATE LATE FRIDAY.  THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD QPF TOTALS ON THE MODEST SIDE
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS PRECIPITATION RAMPS UP WITH THE
STRENGTHENING FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM, LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO ABOUT -20C.
 SMALL TWEAKS WERE NECESSARY TO THE 12Z WPC QPF BASED ON RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, CONSULT THE WPC HEAVY
SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION AND OUR WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES ONLINE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 392633 452648 461656 470660 477663 482662 486663 490662
      493663 500662 510668 515672 517674 516677 515695 516700
      518703 521707 525712 528719 529725 528734 523751 520758
      515766 512768 510773 506777 501783 496787 491791 489793
      485794 483796 481797 475796 471796 469794 462795 452802
      447807 444810 444812 446814 455823 460828 464834 468841
      473848 478864 478873 476880 471895 469902 466905 458889
      450875 446869 444867 439866 426869 423870 421872 417872
      416871 414866 412864 407864 405862 403857 404852 410851
      416853 420856 424857 427855 432851 437844 438841 436837
      429833 434828 427824 427820 424816 420820 415823 408825
      397825 386832 378832 375833 373835 366840 363843 359843
      357841 354841 351841 349844 349847 346846 344841 344836
      349824 356815 371795 389770 393765 390762 386763 383763
      380761 378758 378753 382739 380735 378735 374733 370734
      367736 365738 361742 358747 355754 345781 339798 334813
      326838 321850 320853 317854 310855 307852 305848 306842
      305830 307820 317793 325769 326762 327759 324758 319755
      316755 313758 310760 308760 302756 297750 296744 297741
      299726 299721 300717 303712 309699 392633
 0.01 522266 516258 513255 511250 507242 502241 502244 504249
      503254 502258 499257 497255 494253 492253 491255 491260
      493265 496268 498274 503281 506282 508279 507274 507270
      509268 511270 519275
 0.01 545057 545045 544038 541027 537019 529009 525000 524996
      525991 529985 532978 535970 538960 536952 533944 529938
      526934 523931 515923 508921 499921 485922 482924 482931
      482944 486962 492980 499991 506009 520038 523044 526052
      531069 533072 536072 539073 540071 543065 545057
 0.01 525193 525187 523181 519179 517176 514173 511169 508166
      506172 508177 509181 512186 515190 518193 521195 524193
      525193
 0.01 433814 431812 430811 428812 426815 428817 430816 432816
      433814
 0.01 420116 414112 410104 407094 405099 403104 401102 398091
      397088 398085 401079 402073 403071 406072 409073 412071
      410068 406066 399071 397070 397068 400063 403061 405058
      402056 398057 390056 384055 382049 379040 377036 377033
      379031 384024 386022 386017 385014 385010 383006 379002
      376998 373996 367996 355996 351996 346997 341997 338999
      326009 319014 309020 301025 297031 291037 285042 277045
      269047 249049 244050 238052 235055 233059 231063 232066
      235074 242088 246096 252103 251107 250108 246112 243114
      240118 239129 245133 251134 255133 259133 262132 273129
      278128 285128 288127 293128 303133 310137 310141 308146
      305148 301150 297156 294159 298163 305170 327175 337178
      343184 349175 357178 355183 356187 361188 365191 369194
      372195 374193 373189 371185 370182 371179 373175 377166
      382159 388153 395146 401137 403133 407128 413123 417120
      420116
 0.25 331687 328694 329700 327707 324712 318727 316731 315737
      317742 320742 331734 342725 354715 364711 372707 384699
      391695 397693 407693 410693 414691 418691 418694 417696
      419700 422708 424711 424717 422720 422724 424726 422730
      423743 422747 423751 425754 425760 423767 419773 409782
      402788 399791 394793 386797 381802 381805 385806 391802
      396797 402793 410790 415791 417796 419800 422798 426792
      430786 432778 442768 448761 452759 455759 464761 472759
      482751 488746 492740 496730 496718 498714 497709 495707
      491706 485705 479703 476701 474698 472690 467683 462682
      457682 450681 444679 431675 427670 424659 423655 419652
      413648 404647 397647 387649 380651 375654 331687
 0.25 381124 382117 382115 380114 376115 373113 372106 370099
      371095 374093 376096 378094 381083 381076 378071 376066
      373062 370061 365059 368052 362050 358047 354038 351034
      346033 337032 329031 324033 320035 314041 309047 303054
      298057 294060 286062 275062 265063 260065 256069 255073
      255079 260086 266093 272100 286110 303121 311125 318130
      326136 333143 342147 347148 351148 356146 361143 368138
      376134 381124
 0.25 367153 367152 365153 363155 361156 360156 361157 362158
      364159 365157 365155 366153 367153
 0.25 371086 370084 370083 369081 368081 367079 367078 365077
      363077 361078 361080 361082 362083 363083 364085 366086
      367088 368088 369088 371086
 0.25 351733 350732 348733 348734 341739 339744 345740 348737
      350736 351733
 0.25 343171 343170 342168 341168 339168 338168 338170 339170
      341171 342173 343171
 0.25 335167 334166 332166 330165 329165 328166 330167 332168
      334168 335167
 0.50 450709 450705 448703 446700 442697 438696 436696 434698
      433703 434710 436715 439719 443720 447717 448712 450709
 0.50 439758 439755 439753 439750 439748 439745 438743 437742
      437741 435740 433740 432742 431745 432747 432749 433752
      434754 434756 435758 435759 437759 439758 439758
 0.50 379679 376677 371678 363681 356685 349689 344692 340698
      347698 356695 362691 369688 376683 379679
 0.50 377080 378078 378076 377076 376075 375075 375078 375080
      377080 377080
 0.50 369124 367121 364119 358114 354111 352108 351102 354100
      361105 363107 365106 365103 361097 356089 355080 355074
      353072 349069 348066 353062 359056 352051 346046 340046
      335045 329045 322047 316052 310060 308066 305070 302072
      297073 292072 282072 276074 273076 271079 271086 273089
      278094 290104 296109 303114 309117 318120 323120 327122
      333128 338134 343138 348140 352139 356130 362127 369124
 0.50 374066 373065 371065 370064 370063 369064 370066 371067
      373068 374066
 0.50 360069 362067 360065 359065 358067 358069 359069 360069
      360069
 1.00 355120 352115 348110 345104 343096 341089 341080 338075
      333074 329075 326079 321082 314082 307085 302087 298095
      299099 301101 308104 312107 316109 321108 324110 328109
      332111 335114 338118 340120 345122 355120
 1.50 344112 346115 348114 345112 344110 343109 342108 341109
      340109 341109 342110 343111 344112

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.