Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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985
FXUS04 KWBC 010727
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST THU DEC 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 01/1200 UTC THRU DEC 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...
AS THE ORIGINAL (INLAND) SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF ULTIMATELY GIVES WAY TO A NEW TRIPLE POINT
LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THU MORNING. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AS WELL AS
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF BOTH SURFACE LOWS. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IR/WV LOOPS SHOW A WELL-ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 2 WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) AXES. THE
FIRST ONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX...AND HIGHER PCPN RATES WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING. THE SECONDARY
WCB/EVOLVING TROWAL WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL AREAL-AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
OF 0.50-1.00+ INCHES TO NORTHERN ME...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL FALL
AS SNOW. AS WITH THE MASS FIELDS...THE MODEL QPFS WERE
SIMILAR...AND AS SUCH WPC WAS AGAIN ABLE TO UTILIZE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND (INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ENHANCED
SENSITIVITY TO THE TERRAIN).

FARTHER WEST (DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES)...THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE SHIFTING LOW-LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
MITIGATE ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. REFER TO
THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOWFALL.


...WESTERN U.S....

STRONG W-E UPPER JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DEEPENING CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK W-E OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST B.C. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. THIS
UPSTREAM EVOLUTION WILL LEAD TO SHARP HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S....AS THE INCREASED CONFLUENCE EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS THE LONGITUDINALLY-ORIENTED UPPER JET
AXIS TO 130+ KTS. THIS IN TURN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST-GREAT
BASIN-NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE DYNAMICAL FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND DEEP-LAYER QS CONVERGENCE) AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR MORE
FOCUSED/CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (ANOMALIES) WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE...AND AS SUCH QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
(AVERAGING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCALES). A COUPLE OF
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE THE UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UT AND THE
WESTERN ROCKIES IN WESTERN MT...WHERE THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (GENERALLY 0.25-0.50+
INCH...INCLUDING A NARROW STRIPE OF 0.50-1.00 INCH IN NORTHWEST
NT).

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 491612 495618 499627 502641 505651 506661 507671 508677
      511688 515703 517708 516714 517730 518741 522797 526819
      530830 533837 538842 542850 547862 551887 549896 544906
      542909 537910 531915 527915 525915 523918 517923 512926
      504926 498921 491917 486915 482911 479917 474922 469925
      464925 457921 455916 453913 446909 441909 438907 434904
      434899 446894 449891 452891 456888 458888 459884 457881
      454877 446875 442875 439873 431874 417875 414874 414869
      413863 415859 415854 418850 423843 427841 430838 432835
      434833 431831 423830 420827 418823 414817 413811 412805
      409803 404802 401800 396800 394803 390804 385809 378810
      379804 383798 389793 396789 404784 411779 414775 416771
      418761 420756 420749 433742 441737 443734 442732 429733
      425732 427729 433727 442725 441721 438717 438704 431702
      426698 424695 423690 421685 417684 413684 410686 400698
      390711 383720 374732 365744 353759 349765 343772 333785
      323795 318802 313807 304817 296825 283837 272845 268843
      267840 273834 277831 280827 279821 280817 283811 284807
      279807 276806 271808 266813 253816 249817 247815 243809
      241803 242801 245792 249784 252776 256769 260762 268750
      271746 277740 287728 291722 295717 306712 309713 310716
      310722 310726 313724 317720 321713 331701 336693 341686
      352672 376653 378653 379652 379651 381651 383650 385650
      386649 387649 388650 390649 390648 391647 393646 395646
      397645 398644
 0.01 476335 485332 490328 498321 503312 512292 517281 522267
      523261 523255 522243 521228 519223 517218 513215 508214
      499211 489205 478202 465211 457214 452215 447215 439217
      436218 432221 447229 451227 454228 454231 447232 437235
      434237 430239 426242 424247 425251 429253 433251 437248
      442247 444248 445253 450261 448266 446268 438275 436287
      442295 447301 459320 463326 469332
 0.01 519183 520175 519172 519167 516161 513157 507149 501144
      483128 477126 471123 471118 474118 480118 483114 481108
      481103 482101 485095 483093 480094 477098 476094 471092
      463080 463084 464090 464094 462095 460094 459100 456101
      455098 451094 446090 441087 437085 435081 435085 425088
      425093 428096 430099 430104 423104 418106 416107 413106
      412097 414091 412086 408084 406082 408080 411076 416075
      414069 416065 416062 415061 410060 409058 402055 395053
      392054 388060 384062 380065 378069 385077 386080 384083
      380085 376094 375105 381103 385099 386096 389097 391100
      390104 387107 382110 380112 379117 381124 396128 392128
      389130 387138 386139 383139 381138 380142 382143 387148
      392149 397150 399154 398158 392162 388164 386169 387175
      393177 396175 401174 404172 406166 410170 416173 420167
      424162 426156 424150 424147 425143 427137 430132 439127
      442122 446123 449126 450123 453123 457124 457128 455129
      450132 443132 438135 436136 435139 433147 432155 436159
      440161 443162 445165 447171 450176 450180 446183 441183
      438192 442198 444203 443206 445206 446201 447197 452195
      455187 462181 464178 464176 461175 457173 454172 454169
      456165 459162 462161 465165 469170 475170 480169 485173
      495179 502187 507190 511190 515190 517188 519183
 0.01 494987 494982 492979 489972 487969 486962 483954 481952
      477951 474951 471954 469957 469962 472969 473972 473979
      473985 475987 479989 482990 485990 489988 494987
 0.01 471228 471226 470224 469225 467226 466227 465227 463227
      461228 463230 463231 464232 466232 466231 468231 469230
      471228
 0.01 459230 458227 456227 454228 456230 457230 459230
 0.01 475024 473018 470013 466008 464001 460998 457996 456003
      459010 461018 464023 468026 471029 474026 475024
 0.01 462121 463119 462117 461116 460114 459114 457115 457118
      457120 458123 460123 461123 462121
 0.01 457088 456084 455081 452076 448071 443067 438067 435069
      433071 433073 436076 439075 443076 446080 450085 454090
      457088
 0.01 440973 440966 438961 437957 437952 435947 431944 430947
      428954 428957 430961 433966 435969 438973 440973
 0.01 422126 423123 421122 418124 412129 407131 404133 403139
      407145 410152 406156 404161 404164 406163 411160 414148
      416139 419133 422126
 0.01 399204 398201 395197 392194 389191 385188 380187 376189
      378190 381195 383198 385201 390204 394205 398204 399204
 0.01 404088 404086 402088 403090 404088
 0.01 299787 298784 294785 291786 289789 290793 289795 288798
      287800 285804 288804 290801 291799 293797 295794 296792
      298790 299787
 0.01 288862 287850 282851 276859 275862 275867 274877 269884
      266885 265891 265897 262900 258891 258881 259877 259870
      258858 255852 252850 249852 247855 245859 242867 238875
      236882 232890 232896 231900 232946 231967 232970 234975
      237978 242978 249975 255970 257968 260963 263960 264956
      269940 276923 282907 284898 284885 284877 285873 288862
 0.25 485614 490621 493629 496643 499654 501664 502674 504688
      506699 508712 509723 509736 508748 506757 504765 502769
      498772 493774 490775 488779 487781 484780 480771 475764
      473761 472758 472755 468750 463743 459734 454728 448728
      448725 450720 450716 448712 452706 450703 450697 450692
      448690 444690 441689 435684 432678 428667 423660 419653
      418649 418645 425638 434635 443632 449631 453626
 0.25 513279 515271 517263 516255 514250 510240 506236 501233
      497229 495230 495237 496244 494245 491243 488241 483241
      481239 476235 474237 477242 479247 479255 477260 470269
      467273 465278 464286 465292 466299 468304 471309 475314
      484314 489313 493311 500305 503299 506295 510287 513279
 0.25 491828 491820 490813 488808 486805 482807 481812 480819
      480824 480832 483836 486837 489833 490829 491828
 0.25 486791 486790 484790 484791 484794 485796 486793 486792
      486791
 0.25 482140 482138 482137 481135 479135 479134 477134 476134
      474135 472136 470137 470138 470139 472141 473140 475140
      477140 478140 480140 482140 482140
 0.25 467861 467859 465860 465861 465863 465864 466863 467862
      467861
 0.25 460795 460785 457781 453780 452782 449787 446795 443800
      440806 440813 444815 449813 454810 457805 459803 460798
      460795
 0.25 453850 454847 453845 453844 451844 449844 447845 447846
      446847 445848 444851 444853 444856 445857 445858 446859
      448858 450858 451857 451856 452855 453852 453851 453850
 0.25 446749 444745 442745 440745 438747 436749 434751 433754
      432759 434763 436764 439762 441760 442757 442754 444752
      446749
 0.25 428788 428783 426783 424785 423788 421792 420794 420797
      419801 420804 423803 425801 426798 427795 428791 428788
 0.25 400664 399661 397659 392657 382660 373667 366671 362676
      356685 349697 346709 343724 341731 340737 335749 331761
      331765 333767 340766 356748 371727 377717 383706 393680
      397672 400664
 0.25 409110 409108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 407103
      407105 407107 407110 409110 409110
 0.25 301730 301728 301726 300723 300722 299721 298722 297723
      297724 296726 295727 294728 294729 293731 293733 294735
      295735 296735 297734 299733 300732 300730 301730
 0.25 278792 277790 276790 275791 273792 272793 271794 271795
      271796 273796 275796 277795 277794 278792
 0.25 268917 269911 266908 261914 255920 250927 246935 245945
      244949 245954 248956 252955 257949 262941 265933 267923
      268917
 0.50 480616 484620 487625 493640 495650 496658 499680 500696
      501718 502726 501734 499741 496747 489748 485747 480744
      475740 471736 469730 468727 465725 461722 456719 458714
      463709 463700 461696 459695 455694 455685 455680 453677
      451676 448677 446681 444684 442682 442674 446661 449647
      456638 461625 461623
 0.50 509283 511274 511265 509259 508256 505255 501254 495251
      491247 488246 486249 486256 487261 485266 479277 477286
      478294 479300 482303 485304 490304 496303 500300 504294
      509283
 0.50 448643 445641 441643 439638 436637 431638 428640 426642
      426645 429649 431653 433657 435658 438656 440653 442649
      445646 448643
 0.50 439757 439755 437754 436756 435757 435758 435759 437760
      437761 438760 439758 439757
 0.50 387684 387678 385675 382673 379675 375680 371687 364701
      357714 354719 349726 348733 347739 350742 354742 356740
      361734 370723 378710 381704 384696 387684
 1.00 506284 508277 506271 504268 501264 498260 496257 492256
      492262 494267 495272 494280 495285 498288 502288 506285
      506284
 1.00 489652 488643 486635 483629 478625 474626 470630 467636
      465642 463648 461656 460663 461669 464674 465679 466683
      471686 474682 477678 481677 484672 485663 489652
 1.00 488693 488690 486689 482689 480691 478692 476695 475697
      474702 473705 472708 475709 478707 479706 483704 484702
      486699 488696 488693
 1.50 483646 482641 480637 476635 475641 473645 470648 469651
      468659 472662 476664 479664 479658 480652 483649 483646

$$





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