Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130643
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 AM EST MON NOV 13 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 13/1200 UTC THRU NOV 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST---INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY---NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
PUSH INLAND FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY---FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WEST TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND SOUTH
INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL ATTAIN A MORE WESTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
RANGE--NORTHWARD FROM THE OREGON-WASHINGTON CASCADES WEST TO THE
OREGON-WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE.  PRIMARILY
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED INLAND FROM NORTHEAST
OREGON--CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST MT.

LOWER RIO GRANDE---NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE---NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---RAISING PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS.  OVERALL WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.

EASTERN NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

A MODERATELY SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING AND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT EASTERN NC INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAY 1--PUSHING INTO LONG
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING.  THERE IS OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION AND AMOUNTS DAY 1
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR .10-25" AMOUNTS---WITH
POSSIBLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+ RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE COD AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

FLORIDA

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE DAY 1.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS IN THIS PATTERN WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED AND ISOLATED HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 519271 520267 521262 523259 523251 528231 539194 540189
      537183 533175 524161 514150 504140 490129 484126 481123
      477122 474120 472120 472117 474114 475110 475106 472103
      469102 465101 461101 458105 452110 448117 446121 445126
      441131 436137 432145 428151 429156 429163 423170 422176
      423179 427186 431192 427200 422199 418197 413198 411199
      412203 413207 417207 420209 419213 414211 402204 389194
      382189 376189 374193 374201 370208 361216 356223 356227
      357230 356235 354240 353243 358245 369236 371234 374234
      379239 380240 380243 381248 388251 391253 396256 400258
      405260 419260 433259 448259 455257 464258 469261 476268
      487279 496289 504293 507292 511293
 0.01 475197 475189 474184 471181 467183 463185 460188 458192
      457199 457203 459205 463203 466202 470199 474198 475197
 0.01 475882 470878 468868 467856 466844 463849 461856 460864
      464873 467880 468887 466893 466895 468895 471886 475882
 0.01 454656 449647 446646 442648 429658 417669 412674 410676
      407674 392669 384670 379672 376675 370681 365687 363693
      360700 357710 353719 351726 348730 345732 321750 305760
      298763 290766 281769 275774 265783 258788 250793 245798
      240803 236810 236814 239817 242823 248825 254825 258823
      262820 266821 271821 274819 277813 280809 284810 291810
      294808 296805 301803 305802 313798 320792 329780 335774
      342771 342774 341777 337784 333793 332798 334800 339799
      341797 347793 359785 371775 386763 388761 392760 401761
      407755 411748 416734 419724 423721 429719 436715 437712
      437707 437697 438691 440689 447673 452664 454656
 0.01 444206 444204 442203 440203 439204 439207 440208 441209
      443208 443207 444206
 0.01 457832 455824 453813 454809 453806 450802 446802 444800
      442802 440806 436811 437816 439818 442817 444817 449824
      452831 454835 456835 457832
 0.01 453855 453852 453850 453847 451845 449843 447843 446843
      445843 446846 447848 448850 448853 448855 448858 448860
      450860 451858 452857 453855 453855
 0.01 437756 436744 437739 435739 426750 426754 428757 430759
      427761 423763 422765 424772 424778 422781 420787 415800
      413809 414816 419812 421806 424799 425791 429788 433788
      434782 436773 436765 436758 437756
 0.01 400223 399221 398220 397219 395218 394218 392216 391215
      389214 388215 387215 385217 386219 388219 390220 391221
      393222 395222 396223 398224 400223
 0.01 398793 396789 393792 388795 383798 379803 378810 377812
      378813 386811 387809 391809 394807 395805 398800 398793
 0.01 404954 403949 399947 394946 391945 386945 382946 372947
      350947 339947 335954 334959 333965 333978 333991 333997
      337997 343992 351994 357989 362983 367979 370978 378974
      393965 404954
 0.01 335006 335001 332000 329996 322988 320986 316985 311986
      306989 301992 298993 296991 291988 283982 271977 267974
      261973 247971 242972 241976 242980 240982 236983 233987
      233993 237996 243995 249996 256004 258006 261008 266010
      278013 285014 290013 300009 306012 310016 315018 320018
      326015 329012 335006
 0.25 530207 531202 531195 530188 529182 526175 523169 520164
      512156 507151 502148 498145 495140 490135 486131 481128
      476129 474134 476139 481142 488149 491152 491155 485154
      480152 476151 466146 464151 465157 475166 479168 482170
      484173 490184 493189 497188 501189 507192 509199 512204
      522211 526210 530207
 0.25 516264 517255 518246 515233 510223 505215 498204 495202
      494199 491196 475204 457211 454213 449214 440215 434215
      428216 421221 422227 418230 416229 414226 416222 399207
      392202 382196 380196 383202 389209 397216 405222 405228
      399229 395229 390231 388232 389236 392240 398246 405248
      412250 422251 439246 460247 470250 475252 479256 487265
      493274 495278 500282 506284 508280 510275 509270 511272
      516264
 0.25 498247 495241 492235 489229 484225 481224 475224 480228
      483234 484236 486234 490235 491237 495244 496247 498247
 0.25 446231 445229 443230 445231 446231
 0.25 453161 453156 453154 451151 448150 445149 442148 440149
      438153 439156 441159 444161 445163 449165 450167 452164
      453161
 0.25 422701 419695 415692 410690 406690 395687 390687 386690
      381694 378698 372707 366717 360725 356730 355737 358741
      361742 362744 361752 359758 354766 351773 355774 359771
      363767 372760 380755 390747 396740 399734 402728 406719
      416711 422704 422701
 0.25 258809 259807 258805 259803 257802 256802 255804 256805
      256807 256810 258810 258809
 0.50 527201 527193 525186 523179 520174 516169 511167 500162
      487159 484164 486169 491174 495178 504184 509190 511195
      518204 522207 524206 527201
 0.50 515259 515251 514243 512231 507223 502215 498209 494205
      491203 486202 478207 471209 460212 453216 444217 436218
      426222 428226 432230 448225 453223 459227 459230 455231
      446234 444237 445242 452243 457243 466244 472246 475248
      483255 495273 498276 502278 505274 505267 494247 490239
      482237 480230 477228 474228 469229 468227 468224 475220
      486223 489224 492230 497239 502248 505258 508262 512264
      515259
 0.50 491142 491140 490139 489137 488136 487135 486134 484135
      484136 485138 485139 487140 488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.50 449160 450158 449158 448160 449161 449160
 0.50 429245 430241 430238 427236 416233 412230 412228 414221
      412217 408218 407224 408229 408232 403234 398233 395236
      397241 401243 406244 410244 414245 420247 425247 429245
 0.50 408707 409704 408701 406699 401695 394695 387698 379707
      375714 372720 369725 368730 370732 370735 370740 370749
      373752 377748 386737 393727 397720 400715 406710 408707
 0.50 402216 403214 402213 401211 400211 399209 398208 397207
      395206 394205 392204 390203 389204 389206 390207 391209
      392209 393210 395212 396214 398215 399216 401216 402216
 1.00 511254 511247 510241 509233 506229 501220 498214 494211
      483209 479210 477215 486219 491218 493223 494230 496235
      502244 507253 511254
 1.00 515185 515179 512175 509171 506168 501166 496166 496169
      499173 503176 506179 509182 512185 515185
 1.00 501269 500266 498261 496256 494251 493248 490242 487241
      485245 486251 488255 491260 494264 496268 499270 501269
 1.00 482245 481239 480233 476231 473232 469235 465234 460234
      457235 455238 460239 465239 468240 471241 476244 481246
      482245
 1.00 464219 464218 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 455219
      455221 457222 458223 460223 462224 463223 464221 464220
      464219
 1.00 445221 445220 443219 442219 441219 440221 438221 437221
      438221 439222 441222 443222 445221 445221
 1.00 434225 435223 434222 432222 432224 434225 434225
 1.00 423241 422240 422238 421238 419237 418236 416236 415236
      414238 415240 417240 419241 420241 422241 423241
 1.50 506248 508244 507240 506236 503231 501228 499223 496219
      495225 496231 498235 500240 503244 506247 506248
 1.50 496262 496260 496259 495257 493254 493253 492251 492250
      491247 490245 488246 488249 489251 489252 490254 490255
      491257 492258 493259 494261 495262 496262 496262
 1.50 479241 479238 479236 478233 476233 474234 473237 474238
      474239 475240 477241 478241 479241

$$





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