Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 28/0000 UTC THRU APR 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT BASIN/CO ROCKIES....

THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CA INTO THE GREAT
BASING TONIGHT...WITH A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NV/AZ BORDER EARLY THU...CONTINUING
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER THU AFTERNOON.  THE ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS AND
ASSOCD PAC MSTR/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PCPN ACRS THIS REGION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOWW ENHANCES PRECIP IN NMORTHWEST AZ AND THE UT WASATCH.
  AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST THU THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE
RANGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE SAN JUANS OF
SOUTHWEST CO. MANUAL PROGS USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH A
MUTLI-MODEL AND SHORT RANGE EBNSEMBLE CONSENSUS DUE TO GOOD
ARGEEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC...

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING EAST NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND POSSIBLY
ADJACENT WI ON THU.  WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE CIRC WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SHOWERS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF
THE CIRCULATION...INCLUDING SNOW IN OSUTHEAST MT TO THE ADJACENT
WESTERN DAKOTAS.  THE CIRCULATION SHEARS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THU
PROGRESSES SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE WITH TIME.

FARTHER EAST...STGLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET PATTERN ACRS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST SUPPORTS CONTINUING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION.
INSTABILITY DVLPG TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE AXIS OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRECIPITABLE WATER POOL WILL HELP SUPPORT SHWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE HI RES MODELS SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINS ACRS SRN IL INTO
SRN IN/KY WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A SECONADRY MAX IS EPXECTED IN
WV WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EPXECTED IN RETURN UPSLOPE
FLOW THU AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.

OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ADDITIONAL STORMS DVLP SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BNDRIES THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THU
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  THE STGR INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
POOLING OF 1.5" OR GREATER PWS ACRS SRN VA/NORTHERN NC  WOULD
SUGGEST QPF MAXIMA ACRS THESE AREAS WITH A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
WITH THE GFS/NAM AND HI RES MODELS SUPPORTING 1 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS THOUGH EMBDD HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES WILL BE PSBL.

ACRS LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...INITIAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
AL/SOUTHEAST MS AND LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE AND ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FORMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIER
PWS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN
SHWRS/TSTMS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACRS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME AND LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE AND CAROLINAS THU...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THESE AREAS.  SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL SCENARIO...INCLUDING THE WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF...MANUAL
PROGS USED A BLNED OF THE MODELS/HIGH RES ENSMEBLE WINDOW
FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 533192 528139 527131 528121 522115 519109 515105 510096
      508090 506086 503080 500077 498072 496061 489038 483020
      480010 477001 473990 470978 463949 458924 454902 449882
      443858 438837 434811 432794 431788 430782 429773 426765
      421753 413732 403711 399703 398696 396693 389672 385664
      383662 380662 371663 366669 360677 357682 356687 354696
      351708 346733 340754 338763 334771 327786 317797 311802
      307804 303804 296804 291803 281804 279815 279819 280821
      285823 290824 294827 293840 288849 287861 286871 283879
      276892 272898 271902 271908 271921 275929 278932 282934
      293935 297935 302933 311933 314927 318923 321920 325916
      329912 333909 343906 360901 367903 373907 378913 382920
      387927 392936 394941 395948 398959 401969 401977 402983
      403987 405990 408995 415003 419015 422025 423032 424036
      429042 430046 430052 430058 427061 426065 428068 429073
      432076 433079 433083 430086 426084 425088 427096 424101
      422103 420101 418090 420082 421073 419059 417053 415049
      412040 409030 404026 399025 396027 392035 388038 385039
      364038 360046 358050 356055 353068 348075 345109 340113
      337124 338127 336132 335135 337138 343147 346151 346154
      344155 337158 326156 321156 318157 310155 304157 302159
      307165 311169 316171 327176 332178 336181 342189 344196
      347199 351202 356203 361204 365207 375210 379211 381215
      386221 389224 393226 394228 396226 404221 408227
 0.01 408227 408232 405236 404240 406241 413243 418244 420243
      423244 431241 437238 446235 448234 449230 453227 455225
      452221 446220 442217 434207 427201 418196 413195 408192
      401189 402186 404186 421178 420183 417189 421193 426194
      431191 437192 441200 444204 447203 445196 449192 452191
      456192 458190 464181 465176 462171 460169 460165 466165
      471165 472158 470155 467152 464148 462145 465144 474141
      478143 481145 484150 484154 482157 478159 477167 480173
      481176 481180 482193 481207 487208 491207 503210 508209
      513211 519212 521210 525204 529199 533192
 0.01 487647 487641 484638 482635 479633 473634 464637 461638
      458641 456644 454648 457655 459658 461659 467662 475659
      478658 481655 486650 487647
 0.01 492713 490707 485705 480701 477699 471696 468697 467702
      471708 473713 477717 480720 483719 489717 492713
 0.01 481237 482234 482232 481231 481229 480228 479227 478228
      476230 476232 476233 476235 477237 479237 481237 481237
 0.01 453137 452117 450115 445114 443115 440115 430125 426131
      425133 424138 422147 422155 426162 429166 428175 434173
      440171 442169 440166 437160 434153 433145 434135 438131
      441132 443134 448138 451138 453137
 0.01 447082 447080 446079 444077 443076 441075 439076 437077
      436078 436081 437083 437086 438087 440087 442087 444089
      445087 445084 446084 447082
 0.01 358014 359003 355996 349992 340992 336992 333994 330996
      329999 329008 332016 334019 338020 347020 354018 358014
 0.25 486093 485085 482080 472070 465057 460050 457044 453039
      451033 454029 455021 459007 459994 458986 456968 454948
      451928 450916 449907 445893 442887 438881 434866 429855
      423845 419839 416831 418821 421814 421805 418796 414783
      407774 399765 394762 391755 387739 384720 382709 380700
      377691 373684 369682 365685 363691 362696 363712 362721
      360727 353738 349752 345768 344776 344786 343789 344792
      347798 345804 342810 336818 334820 333817 330813 324810
      322809 318810 311821 302834 300840 299848 298861 294874
      290887 286900 285906 285915 286919 288921 295923 301922
      306918 311912 316905 324896 327891 332887 348874 357867
      365868 369872 375878 379882 390890 400895 404898 407902
      416912 420916 422919 423921 423926 421926 417923 412922
      408923 405928 405932 407936 411942 416948 418950 419955
      421963 421971 418977 417983 418987 419992 424996 432002
      436007 439014 442020 442026 447034 449042 451045 452050
      454058 463084 467095 471101 476101 484098 486093
 0.25 413160 415148 415135 412127 413120 414114 414108 412098
      405085 405080 405074 404068 402064 399056 397054 393054
      388057 383050 379048 375047 371048 369050 371054 374056
      377060 376062 373064 371067 370075 372080 373084 378085
      380087 379090 377101 374107 369112 361114 353116 349121
      348129 349133 353136 363146 359155 361160 364163 370166
      375172 379173 384173 392172 400171 406169 410164 413160
 0.25 382193 381188 379185 376181 372178 369175 366173 363175
      362181 362186 367188 372190 376192 381193 382193
 0.25 355189 356187 355186 354186 353187 351187 350188 350190
      351190 352190 354190 355189
 0.25 344178 344175 343173 342171 341170 339169 337170 338172
      339172 340174 340175 341177 341178 343179 344178
 0.25 341794 342790 340787 338786 335787 334789 333791 332794
      330798 330800 331804 333806 335808 338806 340803 340801
      341797 341794
 0.50 449949 449940 449934 447919 443909 436900 429893 425892
      422895 426907 428911 430916 433930 436942 438948 441952
      443953 446952 449949
 0.50 425869 422862 418854 416851 413853 410854 409851 408841
      407833 404824 402813 402808 402803 406796 404792 402788
      397782 387776 382771 380762 378751 376742 374738 373734
      373731 375722 375715 373708 370705 367707 366717 367723
      370732 369736 366739 360744 356749 352756 349769 350778
      353789 357797 362803 364805 364809 362814 360816 351824
      345827 338831 333837 329838 323838 316839 309844 305848
      304856 298870 296878 294888 293897 293904 293909 295912
      301912 311902 315899 317897 321889 327883 331879 340871
      344866 348859 353852 356850 361849 363849 365852 369859
      376871 381875 386880 392886 395889 400889 407889 415891
      423889 423877 425869
 0.50 409110 410106 409102 405102 397098 392100 389102 382109
      378112 376116 373123 371127 374131 376132 381129 384129
      387131 389130 391126 399119 404118 406116 407112 409110
 0.50 378073 376073 376075 376076 378074 378073
 0.50 367135 367134 366133 365132 364131 362130 360132 361134
      361135 363136 365136 367136 367135
 1.00 394796 393794 391794 390795 388797 390797 391797 393797
      394796
 1.00 394853 393844 391838 387834 382833 377835 375837 374842
      375850 377857 380862 382864 385865 391861 393860 394856
      394853
 1.00 366775 366771 366766 364764 363760 361759 357761 357763
      357768 357770 356775 357779 358781 360785 362786 363784
      365781 366778 366775
 1.00 330863 328859 326857 320856 316855 312856 309859 307863
      306867 303876 301881 300886 304890 307890 310888 313885
      315881 318879 323872 329865 330863

$$




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