Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 052120
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE. SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
USING RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR/RAP.

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH
GREAT PRECIP/SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.


DAYS 2/3...

OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OH
VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE THE QPF. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON SNOWFALL.

EAST COAST...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHT WESTWARD AND SLOWER EXIT FOR
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSE LOW OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY GRAZING THE NORTHEAST COAST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE
WESTWARD EDGES LIKELY OVERLAPPING THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW AND/OR
WEST...ITS NESTED DOMAIN RUN...THE CONUS NEST APPEARS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC AND SETTLES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THUS
WAS BLENDED WITH NEARLY EQUAL PARTS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
TO INCORPORATE SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES AS WELL AS TO BETTER
ADDRESS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THE EFFECT IS FOR 0.5 TO PERHAPS
MORE THAN 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO ZERO VALUES NEAR THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/JAMES

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487634 489648 488654 487659 481665 473671
      471673 466676 462678 457680 448683 437688 430691 426694
      421695 411697 404692 401684 400677 401673 411670 416668
      420665 421662 422657 423651 425645 437632
 0.01 556037 557027 555020 552007 547992 543986 539981 533968
      526955 523948 519941 512928 500908 499906 498901 500896
      503877 502871 501868 500856 500844 502834 504826 502819
      507813 509810 509805 507785 505778 504773 510760 513752
      512743 509727 503706 501696 500690 497687 494684 492687
      489688 471703 466706 464705 461705 454705 450706 449708
      449713 448717 450721 452725 452731 448733 444734 433742
      431746 432751 433758 434761 434767 434772 435777 436779
      440781 440785 438788 437791 433790 429785 429781 425781
      422787 420794 418800 417804 417808 416814 416818 420825
      422827 427827 434826 446827 452827 453831 452833 432850
      428854 427857 428862 433864 442864 443868 442873 441882
      441892 441904 452887 456882 456888 455898 451904 449913
      448922 448925 450928 458927 462923 465916 468909 470910
      470912 472917 477929 479934 482939 489950 491958 494965
      496971 500977 508990 510997 513009 512015 511019 506024
      494041 492048 490050 487052 484050 480049 477049 476052
      478071 483076 481080 478082 474086 474096 475099 479100
      487101 491105 494111 496115 499116 500114 504111 508106
      516094 523081 533072 541065 547060 551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538198 538190 538186 535181 535174 528167 516152
      513149 508146 502143 499140 495138 492135 487129 474120
      476113 474108 471105 466105 464112 463118 462121 464127
      461129 456130 450131 451137 454141 454144 452145 449143
      446145 443145 440140 438139 436140 435146 434152 437157
      442164 447179 441185 442188 448190 452193 455189 463183
      465179 465176 463174 459171 457169 459166 463166 468169
      473174 478177 480181 488187 489192 486196 478200 470205
      465205 461203 458203 458206 457212 453213 436215 433218
      427217 423219 422223 423226 421228 416230 413229 412227
      413221 411218 408217 407215 405217 406219 409222 408229
      407233 406234 404233 400231 398235 395240 392242 387244
      383248 386252 391254 400254 409256 416254 421254 426255
      436256 448258 468261 477264 482267 484269 488279 490284
      493283 498285 501289 506291 510287 513285 515279 521266
      522260 522253 521243 517232 511225 506215 505209 508203
      515209 521218 524222 529224 533217 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451097 445096 436095 432092 431090 428089
      426090 429094 432100 430104 428103 428106 430107 429113
      431118 434116 437114 441117 443121 446123 450121 453116
      459108
 0.01 429923 429919 426916 421916 415916 412919 410922 408926
      409931 412933 417933 423933 426931 428928 429923
 0.01 375972 375967 373963 369960 364961 359960 354956 350955
      345952 336936 328928 319924 315921 312918 306911 297905
      290897 288893 287887 286883 282879 277876 272879 265886
      260892 258895 256901 258907 257913 254918 253923 255943
      253949 255955 256961 257964 259964 275973 279977 282982
      286985 289989 296993 297996 299996 304996 323984 325982
      323978 319977 316975 319973 322970 327968 332969 337972
      343978 346981 351983 355987 361988 364987 366985 369983
      373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350734 346730 333740 312763 300772 283779 268785
      265787 259788 252792 239799 233804 230807 228811 229820
      230824 232828 238834 241836 246836 254835 262832 270828
      280826 286823 291823 296822 305819 312813 322804 325801
      327798 328793 331790 333787 333783 333778 334773 343759
      352744
 0.25 532200 532193 530186 528178 525172 519164 509156 503155
      497152 497148 495145 492140 488135 484131 480130 478132
      478134 480137 484140 487145 491150 496153 494158 490155
      486154 479155 475156 470152 467150 464149 463151 465154
      472161 475163 477165 484168 486173 487175 491177 496179
      501184 504187 511191 515195 518201 520206 524208 529206
      532200
 0.25 515259 516251 513242 511235 507227 501216 497209 492204
      489203 482204 471209 449217 443217 437219 435222 437226
      444229 449229 455227 459229 455231 450233 445234 440237
      439242 443242 449241 461242 469243 474247 484254 492266
      500277 503278 505278 509273 510268 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 441663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312940
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327765 324766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      285802 284805 286810 289812 293812 297811 300808 305804
      312795 318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289932 290928 290922 287917 285908 283901
      282896 279894 273891 271893 269897 267904 266914 263920
      263927 265931 265934 266940 268943 271949 270957 274962
      278963 283962 289961 293959 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 264798 260797 253799 247802 243807 241809 238813
      238816 238822 240824 243825 247826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529196 527191 524182 520176 515171 512169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509239 505232 500218 497213 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 455221 458224 463225 468222 470220
      474219 488222 491223 492226 495234 497240 502246 507250
      510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 474619 480618 482618 484620 488627 492630 495634 497638
      500644 502649 511663 513669 515680 518700 519710 521715
      522725 523736 523744 522749 523754 521766 514773 506779
      503778 500778 495779 491778 488778 484779 482781 481787
      483790 487798 491810 496825 499837 503851 507867 513881
      524905 530917 532922 535928 546946 553957 558963 561968
      561977 560984 558994 558999 557001 554020 552028 549033
      543040 537048 533051 528052 517055 510054 504052 492046
      484038 481034 477029 471019 469015 468012 465011 450996
      447991 445985 441978 438969 439964 439959 438956 431945
      431939 433933 433925 434921 438916 442913 448904 453898
      455894 453891 444880 442876 441865 440861 441858 439856
      436857 424858 422855 420847 420844 421843 426838 431833
      434828 441817 435811 431807 429805 427803 426805 421808
      417807 419804 420797 424789 427783 430774 430765 429760
      429752 431745 430739 427734 427729 428728 433725 436726
      436722 437715 437712 439711 443707 448698 445693 444689
      442686 441678 442670 442652 442637 455626
 0.01 470332 474329 477324 487316 488314 491313 494311 499311
      505308 508304 510297 513290 515280 518273 519264 520258
      521254 520250 513241 511233 509227 502217 498213 491211
      488210 486212 484218 484222 486224 488228 486233 484234
      481233 478232 476230 472234 470240 469243 471244 476247
      477252 476256 471264 466275 463281 461291 458308 457317
      458325 457327
 0.01 478162 475155 471148 466143 464136 463131 460131 458134
      458138 458143 456145 454147 455150 458158 459163 462163
      471166 476162 478162
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 457083 452076 448070 441067 437068
      434070 434075 436078 444081 448083 450088 455093 457096
      458100 456102 452095 448094 445095 437096 433104 431108
      433110 436112 441114 446121 448124 450122 455116 462112
      462111
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 416066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410076 413076 415076
 0.01 396687 395680 390677 382674 369677 358684 346690 338694
      319709 314713 310717 302722 292728 281735 271741 264747
      257756 254759 250765 246768 243773 243779 243783 245783
      249782 250784 247789 244793 242799 241805 241813 242819
      246821 254820 260818 265816 271814 277813 282814 291816
      302820 309821 316820 323819 330819 333819 336816 346807
      350796 359777 371756 377746 382737 388726 390721 393714
      396708 397703 396693 396687
 0.01 305933 305925 303920 294912 284906 275901 270900 263901
      259904 255908 253913 255919 260920 268920 279924 284926
      288931 291933 294935 297936 301936 305933
 0.25 510257 511252 509249 504249 501251 498252 495255 492258
      492265 495267 497272 501270 504268 507264 509259 510257
 0.25 526997 523979 523970 522960 520951 517944 510931 506924
      504916 498899 493886 489879 484874 480873 476874 473880
      472889 473902 475922 475930 473939 466952 465955 465962
      469967 473974 474981 476991 479999 483006 487010 491015
      497021 502025 509026 515023 517020 518015 519006 521003
      526997
 0.25 496673 495667 493661 489649 485639 483636 479632 472632
      469633 467639 472648 473654 475659 477664 481666 487671
      490674 494675 496673
 0.25 378716 377709 375705 369700 366698 362697 357697 351699
      344704 338709 325721 314734 307740 298744 290748 285753
      282761 281766 278770 273777 266781 259785 253794 250801
      249805 251808 257809 262808 274806 284806 293807 302807
      313809 321811 329811 332811 337808 342801 350786 356768
      370733 375724 378716
 0.50 494998 495995 495993 494990 492988 490987 489990 488992
      489994 489995 490996 491997 492998 493999 494998
 0.50 367719 366714 364710 359706 356705 352705 343710 338714
      334719 323731 313741 301751 296757 292763 290770 289774
      287779 260793 255799 255802 257804 267802 277801 295801
      311804 325807 332806 338801 343795 346789 351773 362742
      366730 367719
 1.00 357739 357732 356726 353722 350719 342722 334728 323741
      311754 307760 303769 303774 303780 304786 306792 308795
      311797 320800 328801 332800 336797 340790 344781 350763
      353755 356746 357739
 1.50 352746 350740 345735 343734 339735 335741 331745 327749
      317758 314763 311771 311778 313787 316792 323795 329795
      335791 338787 341781 346767 351753 352746
 2.00 348754 347750 341748 336750 333753 326758 319763 317767
      317774 318785 320788 324790 331789 334786 338782 341775
      345765 347756 348754
 3.00 342761 339759 335760 330762 327764 324769 324773 325777
      329780 334778 336776 338771 340767 341763 342761

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 514269 515261 514256 512251 511246 509241 506238 502240
      502244 503249 504255 505260 507264 510269 514269
 0.01 526923 526899 523889 522884 521877 519873 519868 515856
      512847 509841 492814 489805 485800 480790 476785 472778
      470776 467779 458781 455783 451784 445780 436780 428780
      423781 420780 412780 409779 404779 390775 382774 378772
      373773 365772 358774 351788 353795 357802 359807 357811
      353818 346829 338843 337852 339863 341868 343871 348877
      352881 355882 356885 356890 361893 362898 364903 371916
      389943 393947 398952 408960 420949 431954 445960 450964
      455971 459974 463974 470979 473979 477982 484983 487982
      490980 495980 497978 500978 502973 502968 504963 504960
      506957 506951 509944 513942 517942 522934 525928 526923
 0.01 458672 457665 455659 447655 441655 436655 427655 416658
      405663 398668 391671 387674 384677 378679 373678 367679
      357681 350687 342692 338695 335699 332704 329708 324715
      318723 311730 307737 304748 306762 310771 312776 316778
      320781 325782 337781 346777 363765 369759 376752 382745
      383742 387741 391742 396741 401739 410734 421728 428722
      435716 441708 447700 452691 454685 456680 458672
 0.01 414875 414870 412866 412863 410860 408861 405864 403865
      401867 402871 402873 404876 405878 407882 408885 410884
      411882 412877 414875
 0.01 400894 399892 397890 395888 393885 390883 388881 386880
      384881 385884 386886 388888 390890 392892 394895 397896
      400894
 0.25 472892 472885 470880 467880 464884 463889 462896 461900
      462908 463913 465916 469915 471910 471902 472895 472892
 0.25 465817 464811 462807 457802 453799 450798 441799 426806
      411813 394817 386820 382821 383816 393803 393798 388798
      379802 368813 359825 355832 353836 355838 358835 361834
      368836 365843 364847 368849 376844 381839 387833 393829
      400825 403825 407827 407832 406836 405839 409842 424835
      433833 439833 444834 448833 457829 460827 462824 465817
 0.25 438678 437675 434672 427669 418669 410672 396680 390684
      382689 373691 366690 362689 358690 352695 340705 336710
      330717 323730 317745 315753 315758 317763 323769 329771
      337769 344765 350762 357757 368746 372740 374737 379735
      395730 404727 410723 416717 420711 430698 436688 437683
      438678
 0.50 426683 423678 417676 412678 404682 393688 383697 380699
      376699 371697 363696 358698 352702 347707 339716 332728
      326740 323746 322753 324761 330764 338763 344761 350757
      356752 364744 372733 383725 397721 405718 409714 418704
      424694 426689 426683
 1.00 357743 358740 356738 351739 347741 342744 339746 337749
      335754 338758 342757 346755 349753 352750 355746 357743

$$




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