Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 15/0000 UTC THRU SEP 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION DAY
1 OF THE UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  SUBSEQUENTLY---THERE IS ALSO OVERALL GOOD DEPICTION
OF THE ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE DEVELOPING AREA OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA---SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH TIME AS
THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND HELPS PUSH THE PRECIP AREA EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS PERIOD ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT.  HEAVIEST TOTALS SLATED FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM IN THE
VICINITY NORTHWEST WY/SOUTHWEST MT---EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT AND
WESTERN ND---WITH 1-2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.  THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO
SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM SOUTHWEST MT---EASTERN ID AND INTO
NORTHWEST WY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF IRMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS PERIOD AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  WITH THIS SHEARING TREND---ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME DAY
1---SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST

SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHEARING NORTHEASTERN TROF---SUPPORTING A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COASTAL REGION.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH QPF DETAILS IN
THIS STREAM---LEADING TO KEEPING AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ON THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

NEW MEXICO---SOUTHWEST TO WEST TX

SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO---NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROF. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF
DETAILS IN THIS STREAM GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF DETAILS.
 LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REGIME FROM NM INTO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
TX.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 537767 536757 534749 533737 532726 530715 528707 526699
      524690 522685 519683 515680 509676 506678 505682 500696
      497714 496729 494746 491763 490772 490777 489780 487786
      486797 485807 483815 479833 477840 473848 469860 467867
      467878 466898 466907 465915 462922 458929 453933 452937
      449941 447947 443952 436966 434973 431980 427996 426004
      424007 420008 416010 413017 412021 410026 407028 409032
      409039 404044 401048 395051 390054 383055 377056 373057
      370056 366055 364057 359060 357068 359076 355091 354096
      355101 355104 358107 364112 369109 378104 382106 383110
      380115 376130 374136 374145 383154 385161 389164 395165
      400165 399169 397179 396189 398196 399204 399208 402211
      406217 410218 413216 414212 416205 415196 415192 414189
      418185 422179 425172 426165 426161 430159 432157 436156
      441161 446167 453168 459165 463162 483153 487149 490148
      493150 498151 500150 504150 499140 496135 492128 491125
      491119 491107 492081 493071 495064 499047 510019 511014
      511009 512998 513973 513960 512947 511943 511937 511926
      510905 512896 514890 517882 519874 522857 525839 528818
      531799 533795 533789 535781 537767
 0.01 446700 445698 442701 436707 427709 420713 418722 413729
      412737 409742 408747 408750 410752 413756 411760 409763
      410768 414774 419774 421771 425763 428756 433749 436741
      440733 446727 448724 447717 446711 445707 446700
 0.01 399707 398698 396691 392686 389685 385686 376694 367703
      360711 352722 344730 336740 330750 323760 317772 317779
      319780 323780 333774 339772 344776 348778 354777 359772
      362767 373743 381734 389725 395717 399707
 0.01 403984 401979 394979 386979 382979 380981 366985 360987
      355991 351993 347999 338008 332012 326015 320017 316020
      283059 281060 277060 270058 257055 249053 244053 244060
      243068 246072 251076 260084 271092 283098 288100 290107
      294112 298113 305111 307110 311111 314112 316111 323107
      327103 330098 333091 334084 331077 327079 325082 321086
      319090 317093 313094 310096 306096 303091 304082 308078
      315075 324066 330057 327057 327054 331049 338038 341031
      343024 347018 351013 360007 373999 383995 403984
 0.01 393796 393789 391787 387790 386793 383797 379800 378803
      376808 378812 382811 383807 387804 390801 392799 393796
 0.01 390758 389753 385751 382754 378755 375758 372762 371767
      369770 370775 375774 376771 378766 381764 386761 389758
      390758
 0.01 325838 324827 323818 320813 317811 310812 305812 303810
      298804 294805 291807 286809 284808 277809 269808 261805
      257804 253806 252809 253813 255816 258818 263824 267831
      269836 268841 265847 253858 246871 244879 244885 246889
      247893 249896 255900 260901 263904 269907 277910 282914
      290913 297918 301916 303912 303906 308888 315874 316870
      317865 317853 325838
 0.01 307068 306066 304067 302068 300069 300070 298071 300073
      302073 303072 304071 305070 306069 307068
 0.25 519732 519723 516717 513718 511721 509727 505737 501750
      498762 495776 493783 492792 489808 487820 485834 481846
      477857 475863 475873 473888 471903 468920 466934 463947
      460961 458975 456991 451003 444012 435020 431023 428027
      428034 429039 429046 428051 427059 423063 419068 414066
      407063 403063 400065 381069 378065 374063 370063 369065
      369070 372081 374084 378085 383087 389089 389087 388084
      386081 391085 395089 396093 392105 387115 386121 385129
      386136 391139 396138 401137 409133 422133 427132 433133
      439145 441149 444153 451158 461155 468149 476141 481138
      486133 486127 486118 485103 486089 488073 490056 493042
      496028 498019 499010 498994 499985 500975 500966 498960
      495956 491957 488958 486955 486952 489938 498908 505883
      509870 512857 514843 515829 515809 516792 516773 516756
      519732
 0.25 361747 360742 355743 352745 349748 346752 344756 343761
      345762 348759 351757 355754 358751 361747 361747
 0.25 311826 308823 304821 295815 289814 282815 277815 270816
      270820 273824 283827 288829 293832 295839 294847 293852
      290856 280861 275863 271866 266876 264881 263887 265891
      270888 274886 280884 291881 295878 299874 301869 303863
      308854 309848 309839 310832 311826
 0.25 277084 274078 270075 265071 261068 257064 255067 260071
      258075 260078 264081 270084 277084
 0.50 508794 508783 507779 503778 499786 496792 494801 493810
      490829 486846 484853 479859 478868 478879 477890 475899
      472915 469935 467943 466954 466964 471964 473962 475958
      477950 483934 488919 493904 498888 502869 506852 509833
      508794
 0.50 493020 494013 494006 492994 489988 486985 482983 477984
      471987 467989 464993 458002 453010 448017 442023 436030
      434035 435040 435047 435054 432065 430072 427077 421083
      416088 407091 405095 403101 400104 396106 391113 390118
      392121 396125 400127 407126 424122 431118 434117 437117
      441122 445130 450137 454139 458140 467138 481133 483125
      483118 482102 482090 483075 485061 487048 490033 493020
 1.00 498850 498845 496844 495847 493850 492853 491856 490858
      489864 490869 491872 492870 494867 495863 496860 497857
      498852 498850
 1.00 488022 488012 487009 483007 476004 472004 466007 461011
      458018 452022 447027 444034 444040 445044 445049 444053
      440059 438067 438076 438083 436086 434088 431089 428089
      425091 422100 425100 428101 426104 427106 430102 432102
      437105 445117 450113 453112 455113 459115 462116 467121
      470123 474124 476123 478119 477110 476101 475091 475079
      477068 479059 482052 484042 488022
 1.00 487904 488899 485897 482898 480900 478907 476915 475922
      474930 474939 475941 477937 479932 482924 484918 485912
      487904
 1.50 480042 482031 482026 481022 475019 469020 465023 461028
      456033 453039 452049 451054 449058 443070 444077 448082
      453086 459089 461088 462084 465077 471063 478050 480042
 2.00 473051 475047 475041 474033 470028 466030 462035 460040
      458047 458054 459062 464061 468058 471053 473051

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