Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 28/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MULTIPLE UPPER JET STREAMS WITH VARIOUS AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS WILL
REACH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON THURS FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE SATURATED
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A RATHER STRONG
POLAR JET WILL USHER A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEP SRLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY... AS PW VALUES ALONG
WITH 850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE
AVG. A DYNAMIC JET STREAK ALONG THE POLAR JET WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION VERTICAL LIFT FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA... WHILE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS STORMS FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND WPC MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HERE. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... TOUGH TO
DISCERN THE MCV OVER CENTRAL KS AS MOST MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IDENTIFYING THIS FEATURE OR TOO SLOW TRACKING THE
SMALL SCALE IMPULSE EASTWARD OVER TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD IA/MO IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING BUT NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE... ADDITIONAL IMPULSES OF
VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MOST OPPORTUNE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL... MAINLY ACROSS NE/KS. SINCE THESE SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE BEING HANDLED SO POORLY... WPC HAD LITTLE CHOICE
THAN TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS ON 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
ACROSS NE/KS. FINALLY THE SHORT WAVE EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL ARRIVE INTO OK/TX TO INTERACT WITH AN ACTIVE LOW LEVEL
JET AND PWS AOA 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SATURATED
TWO STATES... ESPECIALLY FROM THE BIG BEND NNE TOWARD THE UPPER
RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TX/CENTRAL OK. THIS AXIS IS WHERE WPC WENT
WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD ONLY EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING
CONCERNS.

...SOUTH/TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THIS REGION SURROUNDING THE SMALL SCALE
IMPULSE AND MCV OVER NORTHERN AL/ERN TN... AS THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE OVER TIME AND SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS VORT AND AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE RATHER WELL... AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC MIGHT BE TOO FAR WEST ON THE AREAS OF HEAVIER
QPF FROM TN INTO AL BUT FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS.

...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE
STALLS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATL. EXPECT AN AXIS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATL REGION.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES-PLAINS...

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY FILTER OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WPC QPF AMOUNTS REFLECT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 472619 483638 487635 491633 495632 496638 498644 498649
      497660 497668 495673 492683 489694 488706 487721 485733
      484743 477749 474753 471753 466751 462750 457748 454750
      449753 448752 443752 439751 432757 427758 423757 418763
      413770 410782 407788 404790 400793 398798 387815 389830
      397838 395846 396851 399856 402858 405859 405861 405867
      407870 410870 414868 417865 421865 423868 424872 423877
      422879 423881 429888 433892 434887 430885 433883 437880
      441880 457879 466878 469878 470874 468869 470861 472855
      475852 479854 484852 488842 494823 496812 498801 503791
      507782 513779 517777 523775 527776 539790 544796 546801
      547807 553832 558860 559867 559875 558880 558888 557903
      558915 559947 555960 553967 549970 543974 536969 533966
      531962 529957 528955 526956 524970 521982 514003 509028
      506039 503044 500049 502067 501075 500085 504089 509091
      516111 520121 521128 522134 529151 534160 538170 541179
      542185 541193 539195 538199 536202 533213 528223 523223
      519220 513212 509208 503205 496208 490217 489218 486214
      485212 482214 475217 470218 468219 465217 464214 465211
      469209 475205 479203 481199 484195 483189 482183 484177
      479168 471165 466162 463159 458158 454162 452164 448159
      444157 442153 436151 433147 434144 434139 433133 431129
      431125 429125 426128 420133 417137 414135 410136 409140
      408151 408154 405156 403151 400149 398145 395145 391148
      387149 384148 382146 380142 381135 383133 386140 391139
      396138 399134 402131 402127 400125 395119 394115 394110
      397111 399112 401111 403108 404103 400094 399101 397105
      389092 382096 380100 381104 384108 385113 385117 386120
      386125 377128 375127 374124 376116 378104 376095 374084
      372080 372073 367071 367068 365065 360067 359065 362063
      368059
 0.01 368059 370053 370050 368048 362053 358054 354050 348054
      335052 330055 330056 327054 320051 310051 307051 304049
      297045 291042 282041 277039 275036 270030 268027 268023
      271017 268010 264003 264994 270992 277991 283976 284973
      284971 286968 290966 292963 292958 294955 299949 300938
      297929 295920 293918 293915 291910 292905 290903 285902
      283899 280892 284875 286867 287858 289850 296847 300845
      305844 314844 327834 331828 336822 339815 340806 343803
      345798 346795 346789 349781 353775 363763 370759 377756
      389746 394740 398739 400736 402730 401725 403715 411701
      416695 420694 421697 418705 417707 417711 419710 427695
      433690 437683 440675 444668 451653 459637 465622
 0.01 496044 497041 497039 496036 494037 492038 490039 489040
      489043 490045 492045 493045 495045 496044
 0.01 482067 481065 479064 478067 479068 481068 482067
 0.01 454845 452842 449838 447838 444841 442846 440849 437849
      435847 434852 436854 439856 445856 448853 451850 453847
      454845
 0.01 403882 403878 402876 401871 400869 396865 394863 393865
      391867 391872 393876 397881 395883 392888 390892 392897
      394903 399900 402894 402885 403882
 0.01 388043 387039 383038 381038 378036 377040 376043 373044
      374046 377046 379044 381044 384045 386045 388043
 0.01 363909 360905 355905 349908 344911 339909 331909 330913
      332917 333919 335915 341914 348913 355914 359914 361912
      363909
 0.01 291801 290798 286799 283799 279800 276799 274799 270800
      270802 272802 274804 278804 280805 283805 287804 289803
      291801
 0.25 553906 553890 553877 552866 550854 546833 543822 539812
      534806 529804 525803 521805 516810 507826 504834 501844
      497865 495876 496888 496895 494901 492906 489908 479918
      473924 469934 462937 457942 456948 453951 448947 451940
      451933 450930 449923 448918 444916 440916 436911 433908
      431911 427917 422921 417923 414924 412935 388922 379925
      376922 373923 366927 361933 354934 348934 339935 330935
      326937 325946 329951 328955 328959 327960 321961 314967
      310974 308977 308980 302991 287995 282997 278997 275001
      275007 275017 276027 281032 289033 295034 298036 306039
      309037 310035 305025 308021 310022 313031 316034 319033
      327032 331032 336030 338033 347035 350036 351031 355026
      358023 359019 361016 364016 368016 372016 374018 377019
      379018 382016 386015 388018 395024 398027 399033 400036
      402039 406044 410050 415043 414035 417033 422033 427038
      435047 430051 426058 425061 426064 427070 429073 431077
      434079 437078 442077 444079 447084 445089 439084 434083
      432087 428089 428092 429095 433097 441099 446100 449104
      450108 450113 448117 449121 455125 453129 454132 462136
      462140 460144 462149 465148 468147 470142 473140 476135
      479133 483133 483128 481123 483114 486106 488101 488095
      484087 481084 477083 474084 472082 462071 457064 455056
      453046 450036 447026 443019 442016 442010 444999 450994
      455988 458984 461983 467981 474979 478980 480979 484979
      487981 493985 499988 506983 511978 514971 526930 529922
      536923 539928 541931 544931 547927 550920 553906
 0.25 525201 524195 522188 515178 504171 501170 499168 499164
      497159 492155 489154 488161 489165 489170 494173 495179
      499184 502184 505186 510190 514194 517200 522203 525201
 0.25 490662 489659 487659 484662 481665 479667 476666 474662
      473655 473650 471648 467650 462658 457665 453668 452674
      449684 444691 443696 445700 446707 445712 444718 446722
      450722 455720 459718 464718 468725 474720 471698 469694
      471691 478684 482675 486674 488669 490662
 0.25 433706 433703 432703 430703 429704 428707 427710 428712
      430711 431709 433707 433706
 0.25 423725 423722 423720 422719 420720 420721 419723 418726
      419728 420729 421729 422728 423725 423725
 0.25 425065 424063 423061 421062 421063 422065 422066 424066
      425065
 0.25 414736 412735 410736 408736 407738 406738 405739 403741
      402743 401744 401746 401748 403750 404749 405748 406747
      408745 409743 410742 411741 412739 414736 414736
 0.25 415073 414071 413071 410071 406071 403070 401068 400066
      398067 396071 397074 401075 404077 405079 407079 409078
      411075 413074 415073
 0.25 409098 409096 408093 406095 406098 408100 409098
 0.25 395940 395938 395936 393934 391935 389935 389936 388938
      387939 387940 386943 385945 386946 387945 388945 389945
      391943 392943 393941 395940 395940
 0.25 382804 382802 381802 379803 378805 377807 378809 380808
      381807 381805 382804
 0.25 374765 372764 372763 370763 368764 368766 369767 371767
      372766 374765
 0.25 379970 379967 378965 377964 375963 373963 371964 370965
      370966 368967 368970 368972 370973 371974 373974 375973
      377972 379971 379970
 0.25 374006 375003 375001 374999 373001 371003 370003 369004
      368005 369007 369008 371009 372008 374006 374006
 0.25 368818 369814 368812 363814 361816 356819 353822 351825
      349831 349835 352839 356837 358833 360828 361823 365822
      368818 368818
 0.25 368871 369867 368863 366857 363852 359848 354847 351843
      347842 343846 339847 335844 330843 327846 324851 318853
      312855 308852 304850 299851 297854 299857 302860 305868
      305879 308885 314886 316882 319877 323877 334881 337885
      343886 340891 334893 339895 342897 347899 352899 357895
      361892 360888 361885 364884 366882 368871
 0.25 356881 356880 355879 354878 352877 350876 349877 348877
      347879 346879 345881 345882 345884 345885 346886 347887
      349887 351887 352887 354886 355885 356883 356882 356881
 0.25 323926 324924 323923 321923 319923 317924 316926 317928
      319928 321928 323927 323926
 0.25 299914 299912 299911 298910 297908 296910 296912 297913
      299914 299914
 0.50 541858 533843 529834 520834 512838 509841 508845 506854
      507862 506869 498911 496915 493917 486920 480924 477929
      476934 477941 478945 479951 482954 480959 477961 473962
      469962 467959 464959 461962 459966 459972 463975 467974
      471972 484966 490961 493959 497958 503963 508964 510962
      514954 517943 520933 523926 527915 529906 532895 532888
      530883 528879 527873 527867 527862 530859 535858 539859
      541858
 0.50 470676 469671 468667 467663 467661 466659 463660 461662
      460664 459669 460673 460676 460679 463680 466680 468679
      470676
 0.50 457690 457689 455690 457690 457690
 0.50 467095 468092 466092 462092 458095 455097 452094 449094
      449097 451100 455100 457103 459106 463105 464099 465094
      467095
 0.50 447075 448073 447070 447069 445067 443066 442065 442063
      440063 440064 439067 439069 440070 440072 441073 443073
      445074 445075 446075 447075
 0.50 447041 447039 446039 445036 445035 443035 442035 440035
      438034 437035 438037 438038 440039 441040 441041 443043
      445044 445043 446042 447041
 0.50 439093 440091 438089 437090 438093 439093
 0.50 438076 439074 438071 436071 435073 436074 437076 437077
      438076
 0.50 435935 435927 433921 431919 426924 425927 424932 422939
      423945 421949 418950 413947 401945 398946 396949 392954
      380979 374982 368983 364985 363989 366995 368997 371996
      375992 377993 378997 378003 376008 375010 378012 385010
      390013 397016 401015 404007 406007 409009 413013 419011
      423012 424008 423001 422995 423989 429976 432969 433964
      431959 429954 431946 435935
 0.50 364872 364869 364865 364863 363861 360859 357861 356863
      355868 357871 359874 360876 361878 363878 364874 364872
 0.50 365007 363006 362006 361007 362009 363008 365007
 0.50 357005 354999 355994 354989 357984 352978 349972 346969
      339970 332970 318968 316972 316981 309987 304994 299997
      291998 285001 280005 278013 277020 281025 284028 288028
      296028 299022 303019 307017 310017 314021 316028 318029
      320027 325024 329023 328021 330013 329008 328006 327003
      328999 329996 332995 335994 336998 336006 342010 349013
      353007 357005
 0.50 357952 356949 355948 354949 352949 352952 354953 355953
      357952 357952
 0.50 313875 312874 310874 308875 309877 310877 312876 313875
 0.50 306856 306855 305854 304853 303855 304857 306858 306856
 1.00 510908 511905 511903 510900 509903 508904 507906 506908
      506911 505912 505913 505915 507915 508913 509911 510909
      510908
 1.00 418959 417958 417956 416955 414955 412956 413959 413961
      412963 412966 412968 412969 414970 415970 416971 416970
      415968 416968 416966 417963 417961 418959
 1.00 412989 412987 413984 413982 413980 412979 412980 411982
      410983 410984 409987 408987 408989 408991 410992 411991
      412990 412989
 1.00 408975 408972 407968 403967 400968 397965 395967 392970
      387978 387983 384986 381987 381990 382995 380006 382007
      385007 387004 390001 392998 392995 392989 396986 401981
      408975
 1.00 353002 351001 349000 348000 347999 346000 346001 345002
      346003 347004 348004 349004 351004 353003 353002
 1.00 342993 343991 344989 343987 342986 341985 339986 338989
      339991 340993 342993 342993
 1.00 321003 322001 322999 321997 320996 319994 317994 316994
      315996 314996 314998 315000 315001 316003 317004 317005
      318006 319005 320004 321003
 1.00 306009 306007 306006 304005 302005 301006 300007 299008
      299010 300012 301013 302013 303013 304013 305011 305010
      306009
 1.00 289008 290006 289004 287004 286006 285007 285008 285010
      285012 287013 288012 289010 289008
 1.50 389995 388993 387990 385990 384990 383990 383992 384992
      385995 385997 387997 389995 389995

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