Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

A VERY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD THRU MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..AS A VERY MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE..MORE THAN SEVERAL H5 S/WVS AND/OR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
IMPACT THE REGION..AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATIONS IN EASTERN
NM..EASTERN AZ..SOUTHWESTERN CO..SOUTHCENTRAL CA..SOUTHCENTRAL UT
AND AND NORTHEASTERN NV..ALL OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST MODEL QPFS
STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES PERTAINING TO ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR..SO ENDED UP TAKING A MANUAL BLENDED
APPROACH FOR THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.  ONE AREA THAT SEEMS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO HEAVIER RAINS IS EASTERN NM INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS..WHERE INITIALLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET ON THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER PWS SUPPORTS THE
ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL MORE ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY BACK
IN THE SAN JUANS AND ALSO INTO THE WASATCH..AIDED BY THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS LIFTING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.


...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

BROAD SCALE AND DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THE STRONG AND NEARLY CLOSED
H5 SYSTEM NOW SWINGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NY STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK ON THE SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME GENERAL
0.25-0.50+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE EASTWARD THRU NORTHERN VERMONT..NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND STAYED CLOSE TO THIS IDEA FOR THE PRELIM
DAY 1 QPF.


...IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND FL...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FL REGION DURING
THE PERIOD.  THE UKMET QPF LOOKS A BIT TOO HEAVY (AS IT OFTEN CAN
BE)..SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH
SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 519702 513675 508664 502655 496649 489644 480641 473637
      457632 451632 446632 441633 436634 427639 422641 418644
      412651 408660 415666 424668 429669 433672 435677 436685
      434696 429706 428712 425717 424721 423727 421740 418750
      416755 414760 413766 414774 422772 429764 437758 443757
      447754 465746 481733 486732 490732 500729 504727 509724
      516717 518708 519702
 0.01 516897 515892 512889 503883 495879 491876 486873 482871
      478873 475875 472873 469870 467861 470853 474850 477850
      480852 484852 488854 491854 492851 492843 490836 487830
      482821 478817 476812 469804 463797 459792 457791 454790
      449789 445790 437796 431805 424815 410830 403838 400843
      398848 399862 407870 415875 420877 425881 430888 436898
      440903 443906 447909 452912 460917 464918 470919 479922
      489927 493929 498929 503933 507934 509937 511937 514938
      516936 516931 515927 513920 511914 513908 516897
 0.01 462134 463129 461126 461123 459120 456118 454116 455107
      454099 453095 450093 447092 446089 448086 451086 452081
      451077 448070 443059 442056 442049 443044 444042 447039
      447036 445033 442031 438031 436027 435022 435018 434016
      430012 427013 425015 426017 426024 421020 415019 409021
      403024 395024 392011 388006 383003 376993 368985 357977
      353974 347972 344971 341971 336976 333982 333986 335991
      335993 333994 328990 323987 319982 312973 309967 306963
      300953 296953 295956 297963 310983 316997 321012 321016
      323018 325024 326040 328046 327049 324050 320055 319056
      317055 289059 282058 276056 268055 263053 256052 249050
      243049 238047 233051 230055 235064 236067 239073 243077
      249080 255083 261087 268090 272094 279104 286112 294113
      301113 308113 310108 314101 315107 317109 324111 334113
      341123 348132 350134 348136 348139 351142 358143 358148
      355153 360158 368167 370170 374171 376174 377177 375179
      372180 363178 360179 362186 367191 374195 378198 387199
      391203 395207 404204 411202 417202 419204 420203 422196
      423188 422183 420183 417182 415187 412190 408189 405186
      406182 407179 410176 414177 416175 418175 420172 421164
      417160 414146 418143 420145 422144 432138 431143 433147
      436155 442161 448158 452151 457142 462134
 0.01 444218 445211 441209 437209 434212 430214 426215 423216
      419213 415212 414219 410228 411232 416233 418223 421227
      425227 432223 440220 444218
 0.01 420801 420797 418795 414797 413798 409800 408803 408805
      408808 412808 415807 417805 419804 420801
 0.01 424004 423997 423992 421989 415979 409970 400962 391956
      389954 386953 384954 384957 387963 391968 393972 396977
      403988 410997 417006 421008 424004
 0.01 404797 402792 398791 394793 388795 384797 381802 377805
      372806 368815 363825 366827 372826 377825 381826 385824
      386818 386810 386806 388804 394803 399800 402799 404797
 0.01 394188 394186 393184 392181 390179 390178 389176 387177
      386177 385178 384179 385180 385182 386183 387185 388186
      389186 390188 391188 392189 394188
 0.01 318820 324804 332795 339785 348777 355772 359765 361756
      365741 367731 366718 359715 347726 341735 324750 303761
      291774 288778 283782 279787 275793 273795 270796 263795
      258797 255799 253802 254810 255814 257816 263821 266826
      267835 272848 274854 275862 276870 277879 277900 278909
      280915 283930 286935 290939 293942 298942 302937 303935
      304930 303921 306907 306887 309871 314859 315852 314842
      314834 316826 318820
 0.01 352113 351110 351106 353104 352101 349100 347099 346094
      344096 342098 338100 340102 343105 344107 346109 348111
      349112 352113
 0.01 322100 322098 320097 318097 316097 315099 314101 316103
      317101 318101 319101 321101 322100
 0.25 506699 506691 504684 499676 494670 492668 492664 488662
      479663 474666 471668 468671 467677 464682 461685 455690
      449699 449704 451710 451716 450720 448724 447729 447736
      451738 455738 459736 467732 485722 492719 499713 503706
      506699
 0.25 497906 497901 493897 491896 488896 483896 481896 482892
      480890 479893 480895 483898 487901 490904 494905 497906
      497906
 0.25 447104 446099 444096 439091 433088 428084 424081 421081
      420087 421091 426097 427101 426103 423105 421105 416100
      413099 413094 415091 412087 410085 410080 414074 415067
      417064 424067 428066 430063 433056 433050 432047 426044
      422045 420048 417050 412051 409053 407057 405056 402053
      403048 401044 397040 396037 393034 388035 385038 383039
      383033 383028 381025 380014 378006 369994 364990 356988
      351987 347993 351011 349018 345023 343026 339028 337030
      337034 338038 338042 334049 329053 327057 330060 334065
      331069 327074 327080 330085 334087 337081 339077 344076
      352082 357082 356074 355069 358069 361071 365071 367074
      367079 368084 370087 373089 374092 376096 379099 386104
      388106 387110 382106 379109 378114 377118 376123 378127
      380125 386122 393117 398119 400122 403130 404138 403143
      405144 409143 411141 416135 421128 422124 422118 424114
      426112 436107 443106 447104
 0.25 407082 406080 404080 402081 404083 406082 407082
 0.25 403100 404097 404095 404093 403091 403090 402088 402086
      403083 402081 401083 402086 400087 400088 399090 399092
      399094 399096 400097 401099 402100 403100
 0.25 393089 393087 393085 392087 392089 393089 393089
 0.25 354748 353740 351738 348738 342740 337745 329755 322767
      318779 315786 312792 310797 306802 301807 298807 296803
      292800 286803 282809 282817 286830 289837 293839 298828
      303828 307824 313813 320800 325789 329783 334779 342770
      350759 353754 354748
 0.25 262079 271086 281092 289093 296091 305088 310082 306076
      303069 297069 291070 285072 277070 267069 263069 258068
      251063 246059 242058 238057 241064 249068 255072 262079
 0.25 294916 294912 294908 293904 293901 292897 291895 289893
      288895 288900 288904 288908 289912 290914 292917 294916
 0.50 498696 497687 493681 487679 481680 476683 472689 469694
      463699 460705 458708 459714 457721 454728 453730 454734
      458733 462731 473724 484716 489713 495707 498702 498696
 0.50 428056 429051 428049 425049 423050 422053 420054 416054
      413053 412057 414058 418059 420057 421059 425059 427058
      428056
 0.50 419123 417116 414108 410101 409097 408094 406095 404104
      397099 394092 393097 394101 397108 399111 403113 406121
      411126 415126 418125 419123
 0.50 397090 397087 398085 397083 397082 396083 396085 396087
      395089 396092 397090
 0.50 398051 398048 397047 396046 395046 394044 393043 392042
      391041 391040 389039 387040 387043 387045 388047 390049
      391050 392050 393052 395052 397052 398051
 0.50 389075 389072 387070 383069 381065 377063 373065 372071
      372077 372082 377084 380084 382083 383079 386076 389075
 0.50 386093 387090 386088 384088 382087 380086 379087 378088
      378089 378092 380092 382091 383092 384092 385093 386093
 0.50 374028 372024 373018 375013 374007 369000 366996 362994
      353993 353998 355002 359009 359016 356020 343029 340032
      341036 342041 340045 336052 330056 339055 343052 347052
      353057 359057 363055 365051 365047 365041 367036 371032
      374028
 0.50 361067 361065 360065 359064 358065 358067 359067 360067
      361067
 0.50 348754 347749 345747 343748 340750 337754 334756 332760
      329763 328768 330772 335772 338769 340766 343762 345759
      347754 348754
 0.50 333079 332078 331077 329076 329077 328079 329079 330080
      332081 333079
 0.50 303084 301083 300082 299081 297081 296081 294081 294083
      295083 296084 297085 299086 301086 303084
 0.50 294815 294813 293813 293816 294817 294815
 0.50 288085 288083 286082 285081 283080 281082 282084 284086
      286086 288085 288085
 1.00 479709 479706 478704 477704 476704 474704 472704 471704
      469705 468707 468708 467709 467712 467714 467715 468716
      469717 470716 471716 472715 474714 475712 476712 477711
      478709 479709
 1.00 377073 377071 376070 376071 375073 376075 377073
 1.00 355038 357033 355030 354029 352029 348031 346031 344033
      345035 346037 346041 345043 347044 349043 351041 353040
      355038
 1.50 352035 352033 351033 350034 349035 350035 351035 352035

$$





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