Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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536
FXUS04 KWBC 211836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/0000 UTC THRU JUL 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/NE...

MOIST WLY DEEP LAYERED FLOW OVER RETROGRADING UPPER HI OVER THE
CNTL U.S. WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS PD ESPECIALLY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE GT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT DVLPMENT DUE TO
EFFECTS OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS..LACK OF WELL DEFINED MID/UPR
TRIGGER..AND EFFECTS OF EARLY MRNG MCS ACRS THE WRN GT LAKES WHICH
MOST OF THE MODELS HANDLED POORLY INCLUDING THE HI RES RUNS.  WITH
THAT IN MIND..CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS ACRS THIS
REGION.  EARLY IN THE FCST PD...GREATER PCPN EMPHASIS WAS PLACE ON
HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUN WHICH BRINGS OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
SEWD INTO LOWER MI/INDIANA/NRN OH WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SKINNIER CAP TO OVERCOME COMPARED WITH AREAS
UPSTREAM.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT..BUT THESE TOO WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO DVLP SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AS THEY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  MANUAL QPF AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1+ INCHES  WERE PLACED
OVER PARTS OF NRN INDIANA/OH/LOWER MI THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO WILL BE PSBL WHERE LOCALIZED E/W TRAINING
BANDS SET UP.  FARTHER N...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT LOWER OVERALL AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ACRS NEW
ENGLAND WITH LACK OF BACKING OF WLY 85H FLOW..BUT MDTLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND MDTLY HIGH PWS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS WRN/NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL...

SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE
CNTL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF HIGH PWS..AOA
2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CNTL U.S.  ELY FLOW ACRS FLOW
FL WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE SW COAST OF FL FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN ACRS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
COAST REGION.  MANUAL QPF THEREFORE FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE
APCH GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY.


...SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...

CHANNEL OF MDTLY HIGH MSTR ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
STG CNTL U.S. UPR HIGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTL/NRN HI
PLAINS ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING.  SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW..ONE NOTABLY OVER WRN CO...WILL
AID BROADER SCALE LIFT ACRS THIS REGION.  MANUAL QPF REFLECTS THE
IMPULSE OVER WRN CO WITH LOCALIZED QPF MAX ACRS MTN S OF
CNTL/NCNTL CO.  SOME STGR STORMS COULD SPILL OUT INTO THE HI
PLAINS RIDING NRN PERIPHERY OF UPR RIDGE..BUT HOW WELL THESE
STORMS HANG TOGETHER WILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS.  STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODELS WITH QPF ACRS MOST OF THE AREA.

...PAC NW...
SCTD MAINLY LIGHT AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPR TROF
PUSHING ACRS THE PAC NW THIS PD WITH REASONABLY SIMILAR MODEL
QPFS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 537199 535187 532181 528177 526174 523172 519167 514155
      513150 510144 508139 504134 501131 502126 500121 496123
      492121 490120 487123 483128 480135 477141 476148 473150
      469149 465144 461143 459147 452159 450166 453171 456175
      463176 465178 465182 461185 459192 453196 448206 445214
      445221 448224 454227 457227 459230 462233 459233 452231
      446234 445236 451239 456240 461239 462242 465242 468241
      471242 478245 481247 482245 481239 480236 482234 486223
      489222 492224 495231 499242 502248 507245 508242 507235
      502222 499216 495211 491208 491203 493204 499200 503196
      506196 509199 513203 518204 520203 524204 529204 534203
      537199
 0.01 510679 486659 480655 473649 469647 465647 460654 450667
      439684 427699 422706 417714 413722 412725 412732 409755
      408767 405776 401787 398795 379825 377836 376840 377848
      382871 385879 390886 395894 402901 406902 409906 412915
      416924 418929 421933 425928 428928 429935 432946 433952
      435954 437952 438939 438932 439926 440921 439915 438907
      437902 436890 435885 437886 441898 444908 448917 449922
      450930 450942 453944 454937 454911 453898 450885 447871
      446865 446858 451849 456843 458840 463840 471843 479845
      488847 496845 504839 506835 508830 510817 512794 514781
      514775 513765 508740 507732 506729 507724 507711 510679
 0.01 492099 492094 492086 492081 488077 485074 480074 481077
      483082 484088 486093 487096 490101 492099 492099
 0.01 491066 489047 483028 481019 480014 477009 473001 468995
      464994 460995 457997 446008 434017 426020 424019 423017
      424013 424002 423993 422987 421983 421975 419971 421965
      423959 423952 423941 419944 416950 412956 402969 396976
      390980 387981 385985 380992 378998 380001 378005 376009
      374015 370021 359034 358044 354052 352058 354065 351074
      350079 351084 355085 356082 357075 359072 366069 369071
      370075 372083 375090 376100 383098 392085 393089 391093
      390096 394099 396098 398095 400091 403090 405091 404094
      403101 403107 405110 407113 409111 411107 412100 411095
      409090 407089 408085 409080 410076 416073 419065 423061
      426061 434057 436048 436042 434040 435035 438033 442032
      443037 445044 455045 459043 463044 470047 474051 476055
      484068 486070 489071 491066
 0.01 473232 474229 473227 472228 471229 470228 468230 469232
      471232 473232 473232
 0.01 465767 462766 459766 455767 452770 449775 447780 445786
      442793 443800 449797 452793 455788 458783 461775 464770
      465767
 0.01 442093 442091 438090 436092 434094 433092 429092 431095
      432097 434100 436100 438095 440096 442093
 0.01 418013 418008 418003 418999 417996 417992 415987 415984
      414980 412984 412989 412994 411996 411001 411005 412008
      413011 415014 418013
 0.01 400111 398106 395109 391109 384108 383106 379104 375112
      372120 372122 373126 375129 380129 386126 392121 396116
      400111
 0.01 386756 385754 383754 382754 381754 380757 382759 384757
      386756 386756
 0.01 387036 387034 386031 385031 384029 382026 381025 379026
      379028 380031 382033 384035 384036 385038 387036
 0.01 373788 372778 369772 366771 364773 361781 355797 353801
      349804 342803 334803 331802 328800 325798 321801 318807
      316816 308814 299814 295814 291813 289805 284801 278798
      274797 269796 255793 251794 247796 243802 236812 233819
      232823 232829 232834 234838 237844 243849 252849 256848
      258846 262848 265850 271853 280852 285847 285841 284838
      286835 289838 290841 292846 292851 294858 294868 294877
      295887 295893 294897 292905 291914 291927 295942 296947
      297951 298954 303956 309958 314958 317956 323952 328945
      334934 339932 343934 347935 351933 355927 355925 352921
      346919 344918 343915 344910 344901 344890 344884 345880
      348872 352865 355862 355857 360850 365845 368838 365836
      360841 357845 356841 357839 364822 366814 364807 370797
      373788
 0.01 372104 371100 370095 368090 366087 363084 358085 356089
      355095 355102 357105 361108 366108 370107 372104
 0.01 368126 369122 367119 361115 357113 355111 352104 350099
      346092 343085 341082 338080 327074 325079 325084 324088
      322090 318089 311087 304084 296082 290081 283076 282074
      278072 276071 273072 268075 266077 266082 272086 278088
      291095 295100 297107 303119 308121 315118 320115 325111
      330107 335106 337110 339115 341123 345129 349131 353132
      355129 358127 361128 366128 368126
 0.01 338056 336054 334053 332053 331053 330053 329054 327055
      326057 326059 328060 330060 332060 334060 336058 338056
      338056
 0.01 231991 237996 242996 247996 255993 262988 268982 272976
      272966 266961 255961 244961 235963 232964
 0.25 502803 502789 502775 500761 498747 497743 494739 491738
      488741 487745 487751 488765 487776 484783 479790 473796
      464799 462800 459805 458809 460813 465819 471823 475823
      478821 481819 485818 493820 497818 500814 502804 502803
 0.25 489709 488700 486694 482696 476700 473702 470701 469693
      469685 468680 465677 464672 463670 460674 457682 459689
      457694 450704 447709 445715 443721 441728 435739 432745
      432754 431760 427764 422776 415787 408796 402804 394813
      388824 386832 387840 389845 392851 394856 398861 405872
      408876 413880 416885 418886 421884 421874 424868 429857
      435854 439850 440843 439835 436829 432824 430822 429817
      429808 427799 428791 430785 432779 435774 439769 447760
      450755 453749 459739 466729 473718 477712 480712 486713
      489709
 0.25 468031 469028 468026 468023 466021 466020 465018 464017
      464016 463014 461015 460018 459019 459020 459023 459024
      460025 461027 461028 462030 463030 464032 466032 467031
      468031
 0.25 408058 404053 399051 392052 388054 386063 389068 394072
      397077 401078 402074 403069 404063 408058
 0.25 385118 386116 385115 383116 381116 380117 381118 383118
      385118 385118
 0.25 380119 379118 378118 377119 379119 380119
 0.25 382076 383072 382068 378067 377066 375064 371063 371064
      373066 375069 375073 376077 377079 380078 382076
 0.25 350117 349116 347115 347116 349117 350117
 0.25 326896 325889 323884 317877 310871 306880 302889 297899
      296904 296912 298916 303920 306922 312923 317922 321918
      323914 324907 326896
 0.25 314862 314860 313858 313857 312856 311855 311856 310858
      309859 309860 309863 310864 310865 312866 313864 313863
      314862
 0.25 280823 280818 279813 275807 270803 264799 259799 252802
      250805 250810 253816 259819 265823 272826 277825 280823
 0.50 460714 460713 459711 458710 457709 456709 454708 452709
      451710 450711 449713 449714 449716 450717 451718 452719
      454720 455720 457719 459718 459716 460714 460714
 0.50 432842 433837 431833 425829 420825 418818 419813 417809
      415804 413801 409802 407805 401810 397815 393822 392830
      394840 397848 401853 404855 406858 409866 412873 415875
      417872 419863 422856 432845 432842
 0.50 398062 397060 397059 396057 395057 393058 392059 391060
      390061 390063 391066 393067 394066 396064 398062
 0.50 319902 319896 318892 314888 310890 308894 306899 304901
      302905 302912 304914 308916 312916 315912 317908 319904
      319902
 0.50 275820 273816 271812 268808 265805 261804 256805 253808
      253810 255814 259816 263818 266820 270822 273822 275820
 1.00 410843 409837 408831 408826 408822 404820 401822 398825
      397830 398834 402838 405839 408843 410843
 1.00 265815 264814 263813 262812 260813 262815 264815 265815

$$





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