Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190722
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/1200 UTC THRU AUG 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...

A COMPACT...QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THIS MORNING
UNDERNEATH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AFFORDED BY
THE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORT MAX IS ALLOWING FOR THE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CEN/SOUTH-CEN TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY AIDED BY A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS NEAR 2.00 INCHES...MUCAPES
AOA 1000 J/KG...AND ELEVATED LLVL SOUTHERLY INFLOW AROUND 30 KTS.
THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WEAK
CYCLONIC STEERING FLOW (MEAN WIND) WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SLOW
MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE -- WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BE PLACING THIS
ACTIVITY WAY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH -- IS GENERATING LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 3-5". CONSIDERING THE SATURATED SOILS...ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...AFTER WHICH TIME THE LLVL INFLOW WILL WEAKEN.


...SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES -- 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN -- WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO CEN-SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE UPPER
HIGH THAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. VERY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW...WITH A
BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT NOTED FROM THE MODELS OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE AXES.
MOREOVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORTS OR MCVS  MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE HIGH PW AXIS. THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS DIURNALLY-AIDED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS...ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED RISK FOR LOCALIZED
RUNOFF ISSUES AND FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE 4KM WRF-ARW...NAM CONEST...AND SSEO
MEAN WERE UTILIZED FOR THE QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD... ALONG WITH
THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN.


...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES -- 1 TO
1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN -- WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY
(WI) INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT
WITH DETAILS..HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS GIVEN THE ABOVE
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF-ARW...NSSL
WRF...AND NAM CONEST) WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR QPF DETAILS...WITH
THEIR FAIRLY SIMILAR MAX AXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY USED TO DEPICT THE GREATEST RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS AXIS OF 2-4"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID ATLANTIC...

TWO WELL DEFINED VORTS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION DAY 1.
THE NORTHERN MOST VORT IS NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS OF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS TAKING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE WITH IT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...AN MCV OVER NRN AL/GA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE NC COAST BY 12Z WED. THIS MCV WILL HELP TO
SPARK MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS USED WITH THE QPF DETAILS CONSIDERING THE
FAVORABLE MODEL COMPARISON...INCORPORATING SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SSEO MEAN...NAM
CONEST...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL WRF. THE ENSEMBLE OF THE QPF OUTPUT
WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...AVERAGING AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 3 INCHES...FROM EAST-CENTRAL NC TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 536177 536167 536161 535156 527143 525134 521126 516110
      514101 510094 507091 504090 501090 499092 497098 496101
      491109 490119 490128 485132 483137 483143 484164 485173
      487175 492176 495179 496184 497192 498202 499214 500222
      504229 509234 513234 515230 516225 515222 511215 505200
      504194 503190 503181 502178 504177 506180 508184 511186
      514187 516185 521179 525178 530182 534180 536177
 0.01 492848 490834 489828 487822 479809 463799 447789 441783
      437779 434778 416778 412781 406782 397783 394780 393775
      390771 388767 386760 386752 388742 390732 389723 388715
      385712 378706 372697 368699 364703 359705 354708 349717
      343722 337724 333727 322738 311751 301766 300770 300775
      301785 298789 296794 295800 289801 277801 271800 267798
      266796 262798 256799 252802 247808 247815 249818 251822
      254824 259823 263821 271820 278822 283823 288823 292825
      295825 296827 296835 295843 292853 290866 289871 288877
      289885 291887 296888 298889 297892 294903 294908 296912
      302916 306918 313919 318920 323920 334919 339912 339905
      339902 341900 344897 346893 345888 344884 340877 338872
      338864 340859 343857 353877 362893 364896 364901 360902
      357901 355901 353903 353909 357919 362929 367936 371945
      374956 375961 377963 379962 382959 385948 387943 389939
      395948 397956 398964 399968 400974 405982 411989 414000
      401009 395017 393020 391027 390032 387036 384038 382042
      383045 386045 393041 397040 401042 399046 395050 370048
      365047 362049 359052 356057 353068 350071 345070 339066
      336055 333052 329050 322045 315039 313035 311031 312026
      314024 320020 329016 333014 335010 341001 346989 350979
      343973 338973 331973 323974 319975 316979 312984 309986
      304987 297993 291999 284005 279008 276011 275016 278018
      275022 274028 269028 258026 252026 246028 240031 237035
      237039 246054 253059 258065 262067 263069 262073 258082
      254091 255095 257098 262103 270107 279111 283114 288115
      293118 299119 306120 311122 319126 324133 329141 332145
      337146 353148 374149 392148
 0.01 392148 399148 403151 417150 427143 427139 425135 423132
      423129 427125 430123 433124 435128 436134 437144 436148
      440149 442148 444145 448138 451131 453130 454131 456135
      460135 464134 466132 467120 462116 459113 459107 463104
      464101 465096 467093 469091 470086 472079 473066 479062
      485050 481043 482035 479029 475031 472032 470028 467021
      463020 461018 456013 453007 447002 433975 430968 427960
      425953 423945 417933 408919 407917 407913 411909 415905
      419898 425885 427882 430880 439879 442880 443884 442893
      442899 441904 443911 443921 445928 448937 452943 457947
      461948 462949 466947 469947 472940 474933 473925 473912
      475904 482890 486884 490879 492848
 0.01 454073 454071 453069 453068 452067 450067 449068 448070
      448073 450075 451075 453075 454073
 0.01 448085 447080 444077 441072 440067 437064 433059 431056
      428058 424063 422066 422069 424074 424079 422082 425085
      429086 432085 439086 443087 446087 448085
 0.01 415229 414227 410226 407225 403225 400225 398225 395226
      394231 396233 398235 402236 404236 407235 411235 413234
      414231 415229
 0.01 386198 383194 380188 379182 376181 373183 370183 364182
      361183 360185 360188 363190 370192 375196 380199 382201
      385200 386198
 0.01 303013 303011 302010 300010 298010 296010 295010 294011
      293012 291012 290012 291014 293014 294014 296014 298014
      300015 302014 303013
 0.01 289014 287014 286014 287015 289014 289014
 0.25 522162 522152 523146 522139 518130 512124 508121 506120
      503122 500131 494136 491140 492145 497152 503159 508161
      513162 522162
 0.25 484854 483845 482839 477825 474820 471817 462812 453808
      448804 444802 432804 425804 420802 415800 411800 404801
      399804 392812 386822 380829 377835 376842 377849 380854
      383859 385866 386879 386882 384881 379883 376879 371876
      367873 362874 381918 387926 391929 398929 398924 396918
      391908 391895 392892 395890 399887 407879 414871 421865
      424863 428864 432868 443865 447865 450872 453885 456891
      460890 464886 468884 474882 476875 479863 480858 481857
      484854
 0.25 447102 446098 444096 441094 438093 436095 434097 432101
      431104 430106 432108 435108 438107 440106 442106 445104
      447102
 0.25 441036 439031 438026 437019 434016 430013 427011 422013
      420015 418022 420027 422032 424035 429036 435036 440038
      441036
 0.25 413111 413099 413094 410091 398099 394099 392101 384106
      378108 371112 363110 358102 357098 355095 348090 343085
      339082 335081 329084 326086 321085 314083 304083 296081
      292081 289083 283086 285091 285096 291101 297106 302110
      306113 311115 318118 326122 330127 335129 336132 342138
      346140 348141 366141 381136 387134 391131 393128 395124
      398122 404118 410114 413111
 0.25 410075 411070 408068 404067 399069 392070 387071 383074
      381076 379080 382086 387090 393089 397085 402082 406079
      410075
 0.25 378739 376733 373727 370726 366727 361731 356732 355729
      352727 346727 341731 334740 328751 323762 321770 322778
      322786 323791 325794 328794 328796 327799 323801 324803
      329805 334808 337813 340819 348819 350820 352819 354813
      355806 355801 357798 361794 360787 358779 357769 356759
      357752 358745 360742 362742 366746 369752 373754 377749
      378743 378739
 0.25 383936 383931 382929 380927 378925 377922 373920 371923
      371927 373929 375931 376934 377936 380938 383936
 0.25 333891 332885 331879 328868 327863 324858 323853 322847
      320835 321823 322819 321812 318809 314807 311805 309805
      309809 306818 303828 302834 303840 304852 305859 307863
      308867 308872 305882 304888 304896 306903 309905 311905
      316902 320894 328896 332893 333891
 0.25 323003 324998 322994 319992 317992 311998 306998 302998
      300000 293004 289008 295008 302006 311005 314007 318007
      323003
 0.25 314058 315053 314048 311042 306036 301033 294035 286036
      274040 271039 266039 259041 256043 256045 261050 267055
      270057 273056 279057 286062 292065 296065 298063 301048
      307050 309058 314058
 0.50 515142 515137 512133 508133 506136 502137 499139 500143
      502147 504151 508149 510146 514145 515142
 0.50 472850 472844 472839 468831 464826 458822 433810 427813
      422814 419813 417808 415806 411805 407808 402812 397819
      394826 389829 384834 380841 387854 387860 389871 391875
      393878 396879 398878 405874 407871 409866 408863 405862
      401861 401859 403855 405854 408855 412853 419854 425852
      429852 429854 431862 446860 451863 457869 461874 465873
      467871 470860 472850
 0.50 436844 435844 434845 433845 434845 435845 436844
 0.50 409103 410101 410098 408096 407098 406100 406102 406105
      407106 408105 409104 409103
 0.50 405112 406107 404105 398106 394110 389113 385115 380119
      379124 382125 385124 390122 395120 399118 403114 405112
 0.50 392082 393080 393078 392075 390074 389075 388075 387077
      386078 386079 386081 386082 387084 388084 389084 391082
      392082
 0.50 394922 393920 393918 392917 391916 389915 387918 388920
      389922 389923 391924 393924 394922
 0.50 376742 376740 376737 375735 374733 372731 370731 368731
      367732 367734 367735 367736 367737 368739 369741 370743
      371745 372746 374746 375744 376742
 0.50 371133 370130 367127 361123 351110 347103 342096 340093
      336092 329095 325094 322091 318089 313088 310090 308095
      308100 310103 314111 320116 328120 331122 335122 347134
      353134 358136 361138 365138 368137 371133
 0.50 380904 380902 378902 377904 378906 380905 380904
 0.50 357788 355777 353764 352761 350761 348765 348772 346775
      341782 339786 339790 341791 344792 347796 347800 345805
      342810 342813 346814 350813 352808 352802 355793 357788
 0.50 346743 344740 340742 337746 335749 333753 331757 329761
      329765 331767 335765 337762 341758 342755 345750 346745
      346743
 0.50 310886 310884 310882 310879 309877 308877 307879 306880
      306882 306884 306886 306888 307889 309888 309887 310886
 1.00 439830 438825 436823 434823 431823 427823 424823 422825
      419827 421832 422833 425834 427836 428838 431838 433837
      435835 438832 439830
 1.00 354784 354782 354781 353779 353777 352775 352773 351771
      351770 351771 351773 351775 351778 351780 351782 352784
      352786 353787 353786 354784 354784
 1.00 348123 347119 346116 345114 342111 340110 337110 336112
      336115 338117 340120 342122 344125 345125 348123

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