National Weather Service Text Product Display

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 241835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/0000 UTC THRU MAY 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHEASTERN STATES...

SLOW MOVG CLOSED UPPER LO EXPECTED TO BRING SGFNT RNFL TOTALS TO
NEW ENG..PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS..AS VRY STRONG DEFORMATION
AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
PCPN.  MODEL QPFS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD WITH
TODAY`S MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH LIFTING PCPN NEWD AS
WELL AS BEING SLIGHTLY HEAVIER WITH TOTALS.  THE 12Z GFS QPF
STAYED VRY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST TWO RUNS AND SEEMS A
REASONABLE FIRST GUESS FOR THIS QPF GIVEN ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GEM REGIONAL FCST.

...CNTRL U..S FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD TO TX...

COMBO OF PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST
UPPER LO AND VRY SLOW MOVG TROF MOVG ACROSS TX IN THE SRN STREAM
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRING SHWRS ACROSS THIS RATHER LARGE AREA
OF THE NATION.  THREAT FOR MOST ORGANIZED/SGFNT PCPN APPEARS TO BE
FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STG MSTR FLUX
INTO THE REGION AIDS A WAA PCPN EVENT DVLPNG AS A WEAK SHRTWV AND
BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BECOME INVOLVED BY LATER THIS EVNG.
MOST MODEL QPFS STGLY HINT AT THIS EVENT THOUGH LATITUDINAL
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES EXIST.  THE UKMET AND GEM REGIONAL ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND SEEM TO SUPPORT THE GFS
MASS FIELD FCSTS SO LEANED IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.
MEANWHILE..ONGOING WAA SHWRS INVOF THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL LIKELY TO
ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY LATER THIS EVNG AND TNGT
SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV.

FARTHER SOUTH..THINGS ARE A LOT MORE MURKY.  MODEL QPFS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE HANDLING THE QPF ASOCTD WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
NOW MOVG ACROSS TX..AND THE BNDRYS THAT HAVE BEEN LAID DOWN WITH
THE CNVCTV SYSTEM THAT IT GENERATED LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY
CONTINUES OVR S CNTRL TX.  IN ADDITION..THERE IS A LOT OF
SPECULATION AS TO HOW MUCH CNVCTN CAN GET GOING IN THE LEE OF THE
SRN ROCKIES THIS EVNG AS LLVL INFLOW RETURNS TO THAT AREA AND IS
LIFTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM UNDER
RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  ATTEMPTED A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL/ECMWF/UKMET BUT HAVE
VRY LO CONFIDENCE WITH THE QPF HERE.

FINALLY..LATER SAT AFTN AND EVNG...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
SHWRS WILL BREAK OUT OVR THE NRN HI PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE..AND INCRSG PWS AND INSTABILITY THAT MODEL MASS
FIELD FCSTS ARE DEPICTING FOR THAT AREA.

...PAC NW...

LGT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND EXTRM NRN INTERMTN
REGION EARLY IN THE PD AS ONE PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES NEWD OUT OF
THE REGION ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ADNL ENERGY APCHG THE AREA LATER
TMW AFTN AND EVNG.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 492643 490635 487631 482626 476623 469621 465622 461623
      457626 454626 447628 439633 433637 428640 425640 418644
      415648 414652 416663 410670 406673 405676 397683 392690
      389697 386705 386714 385718 386724 388728 391732 397735
      400740 401746 400750 402754 408757 414759 421761 428760
      437756 441755 444755 452751 461744 466737 476722 479717
      481713 483704 486684 486678 488674 490664 491655 492643
      492643
 0.01 542198 544182 545169 544158 543147 539127 538122 536119
      532111 526106 524104 520103 516109 513115 510123 509135
      508141 505144 501140 495135 487132 480133 480138 484140
      485144 488152 484153 479151 470148 468145 466144 462144
      459145 455147 451150 447150 440149 438149 438153 441157
      446159 448162 453163 455162 456166 453172 448179 444182
      443190 449192 452192 452188 456181 460177 462178 463172
      463169 470171 475172 479175 482182 484186 484192 478198
      470206 458211 454215 449217 440218 434220 424226 415232
      410234 413240 416243 418246 418250 417255 420261 422263
      426263 436259 442255 445258 457253 462251 467251 475253
      479254 481252 483250 485252 488254 493258 495264 494268
      497270 499275 502276 506273 510272 515274 518273
 0.01 504962 502949 498945 493942 488942 484940 480935 477928
      473921 469917 459910 448900 440892 434887 428885 422882
      414883 410879 406873 389853 385848 382842 378836 374834
      371841 370849 372865 373877 372885 370898 369906 370914
      373911 379908 381906 384909 384919 382927 379929 375930
      368932 365936 361935 362930 361927 356927 351927 343929
      336932 331935 324936 319933 312925 310922 307919 301915
      299915 296921 297929 298936 299940 297944 293948 293955
      288954 283956 278960 271969 266967 259969 247974 248980
      251982 251987 253998 255002 256006 258012 265024 268029
      271033 276037 280040 284044 286049 291053 296056 302057
      311056 315053 318054 320056 325060 331058 337054 342050
      349048 357047 362045 366043 372030 371029 366029 362031
      356035 352036 348035 343031 350029 356026 363024 390014
      394032 400033 407031 409029 411030 415035 417038 421039
      425045 432060 439069 441073 446075 447076 451076 456074
      464073 473073 481074 491068 496062 497059 498055 500050
      500045 499031 496026 493023 490021 481014 478011 473010
      468006 459996 453982 444971 442962 445961 450965 454971
      458976 464979 470980 476983 480985 486984 493978 504962
 0.01 464110 464106 461102 458101 457105 455108 452109 449113
      452118 455122 458118 458114 461110 464110 464110
 0.01 377970 377967 377963 376960 374957 372960 369961 366965
      364969 364973 365976 363980 362980 360984 363987 366986
      368983 368982 371981 373978 373977 375974 376973 377970
 0.01 270801 269798 266799 264800 261801 259802 257805 254806
      254807 253810 252811 253812 256813 257814 259812 262811
      264810 266807 269806 269804 270801 270801
 0.01 294065 289059 284053 280047 277044 273041 269039 263039
      252040 250044 250046 255052 257057 259060 266064 276065
      283069 288070 292068 294065
 0.25 482647 480641 477637 473632 470632 467632 460633 454635
      449638 435647 429654 427660 427669 428676 429686 426690
      413696 407698 402703 399710 401716 405722 406728 409745
      413750 418752 425751 430749 445743 453738 459731 463725
      467719 471711 474704 478689 481673 482658 482647
 0.25 538191 538162 536149 533139 530134 526131 521133 518139
      517155 514162 508172 508181 509185 512197 515208 516213
      514220 512224 510231 509240 510246 511257 514261 516262
      520260 522254 523250 523246 521235 521228 522223 533208
      535203 537196 538191
 0.25 472952 472947 470943 469943 466940 463940 460941 458942
      459946 461948 462950 464951 467953 470954 472952
 0.25 435943 434933 431926 424918 417908 411903 407901 397897
      396901 396905 398914 401923 402932 404938 406941 406946
      406951 405954 403954 398950 396948 393951 392955 393964
      395973 397978 403981 405984 405988 403994 402003 400010
      400015 401019 403020 406019 411016 420023 427013 430006
      430997 429986 428977 430962 434948 435943
 0.25 338970 339964 339959 337956 334956 328958 322962 313972
      306975 302979 298981 294982 287983 280982 275978 269981
      265985 264988 264993 266999 271005 275009 284017 289022
      289031 290034 294036 299037 305035 309031 315043 322046
      327045 329040 326035 320030 315026 309025 306024 305020
      305010 309007 314003 318997 323985 325981 328978 333975
      338970
 0.50 478656 476646 471639 466638 463638 457639 452642 443648
      438653 435657 432663 433671 441681 442687 438693 417706
      411709 410713 413729 416743 421746 425745 435742 442740
      447736 456727 463716 469704 474690 476678 478666 478656
 0.50 532195 532185 534175 535168 535161 532151 530145 525142
      522144 522151 523158 522168 519177 518183 520191 521198
      525202 529200 531195 532195
 0.50 429949 429942 428937 424930 420923 416916 413915 409916
      408921 410926 411937 412943 411949 409957 407964 405967
      401968 401970 405970 408972 409976 409986 410994 413002
      416010 418011 422011 425005 426999 426993 425981 426973
      427961 428953 429949
 0.50 305998 305994 301994 299995 293992 285993 278991 273987
      268992 269997 272001 278006 283009 289010 293005 299001
      301999 305998 305998
 1.00 471657 471652 469649 466647 460648 456651 452654 447657
      442662 441664 444667 447667 451666 456665 461667 465667
      468666 470663 471657
 1.00 459702 454701 446704 438709 431713 424716 422724 423732
      425736 429737 434736 443731 450725 454718 458709 459702
 1.00 423954 422946 417951 415958 415968 415979 414987 418994
      419998 422000 422990 422978 423970 422958 423954
 1.50 448715 445712 443713 440715 440716 438719 436721 433722
      430723 428727 428729 429730 431731 433731 436730 439729
      441727 444725 446722 448720 447717 448715

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
