Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 080659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 08/1200 UTC THRU JUL 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS PERIOD..WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED H5 LOW
FINALLY COMING EASTWARD INTO CA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND A WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WV DOWNSTREAM OVER UT AT THIS TIME FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
CONVECTION/RAINS OVER NORTHERN CA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NV..WHERE
PWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OY YEAR.  DOWNSTREAM..LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING H5 S/WV WILL LEAD TO RATHER
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES..WHERE PWS ARE ALSO ABOVE AVERAGE.
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED FROM CENTRAL CO OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS..ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
DEVELOPS INTO CO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON ON A STRENGTHENING AND
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET UP INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO WPC QPF CONTINUITY
THRUOUT THIS ENTIRE REGION..WITH 0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINS LIKELY IN NORTHERN CA/NORTHWESTERN NV..AND A BAND OF 1-2"
RAINS PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL CO DOWN INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

MORE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES..SUPPORTED BY A WELL DEFINED H5 S/WV AND TRAILING
SHEAR AXIS LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION AND VICINITY OF A FOCUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIFT
ADDITIONALLY AIDED BY A SURFACE WAVE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  POOLING OF PWS TO ABOVE
2 INCHES NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING THE LIFTING
OUT S/WV AND SURFACE LOW SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINS..PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHERE SOME CELL TRAINING IS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG MODEL SIGNALS FOR
THE VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..EVEN TO THE POINT OF
BEING FAIRLY AGREEABLE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS SETS
UP..LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST.  AREAL
AVERAGE 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY..WITH SOME LOCAL
GREATER THAN 3 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE..IN
LINE WITH MODEL QPFS.  FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST..THE FRONT WILL
STALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS..WITH PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER HERE..WHERE SOME 2 INCH PWS ARE FORECAST
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  BETTER CHANCE OF SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINS SHOULD BE IN WV..WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE AND QUITE
MOIST WESTERLY H85/LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 492612 500630 501639 501645 501651 499657 493667 491672
      488675 482681 474687 466693 460699 447712 441719 435725
      423742 414758 412762 410768 410773 409779 407792 407799
      407801 409802 414801 419802 422805 424809 426814 428821
      429836 426857 424869 422884 420895 416905 408920 404931
      400940 395948 388954 381959 377961 376963 377965 384972
      389978 393984 398993 402003 405012 406015 408013 412012
      417013 420020 432011 437007 439004 443999 445995 446990
      450985 455978 467964 472957 477951 486936 496916 499911
      502907 508899 518886 530870 536863 539865 541871 545882
      545888 542893 535912 527931 518951 512962 507970 499983
      495988 492990 484995 480997 475997 468001 461007 454015
      451024 447034 447040 445044 443049 443055 445061 450064
      454073 452078 454084 457096 457110 457121 459147 458151
      455154 453159 448159 443157 438158 437162 435163 433162
      433159 431157 429159 430165 430171 430178 429190 429202
      430229 429236 426240 420245 412248 405245 395240 393235
      391234 391231 393217 387211 373197 367190 364182 366178
      369178 375179 380178 383176 385173 386169 386162 384157
      383154 383149 382144 379138 374132 372123 372118 374112
      376107 378102 376098 375092 371086 364077 358078 361082
      364091 365095 362096 362106 359105 355102 350096 346094
      344097 341101 341105 338107 333110 326109 323106 321106
      312110 309111 311107 314104 316101 313094 309090 307088
      304088 296092 288096 278093 269091 262086 254082 246076
      231066 227061 225054
 0.01 227037 247025 256020 269014 293006 298004 302000 306995
      311991 324968 338947 350924 354912 360898 364884 366876
      366866 365857 364847 361841 359832 359823 359819 360816
      364810 366808 366804 371774 372770 372766 368764 365764
      359763 355759 358754 363747 371738 387721 406702 410699
      418696 426686 435679 436681 437685 437690 440687 454665
      467641 472629 474623 478617
 0.01 354035 353027 352023 349020 348016 349011 351002 351996
      349987 347984 345982 341987 336993 332999 328005 324011
      318014 314015 313020 316026 321033 337034 339032 342032
      345030 350031 347035 346037 348039 353038 354035
 0.01 309824 308818 304814 296806 274800 271800 272797 273795
      272793 269789 263788 251791 245792 240797 238801 240808
      242815 244820 260836 264838 270840 281843 285846 289851
      292856 294862 297866 299868 301866 302861 301855 300848
      296843 299842 301844 305848 307846 309844 309839 308831
      309824
 0.25 446104 444095 442091 441085 439081 435080 432081 427080
      424079 420076 419072 419066 419059 418055 415043 414039
      411036 407034 405031 400024 397015 390999 386992 380986
      373981 368979 364980 361983 359988 359994 360998 361004
      361011 359015 358021 361031 362036 365039 372043 378048
      380059 380062 378064 375065 373070 374075 378084 381086
      384090 392092 399097 400102 400107 402112 405115 410117
      413119 419124 423123 426120 438112 444108 446104
 0.25 423229 423222 422214 422207 422198 422190 420183 416182
      414184 411184 406187 402190 396191 394193 396196 394202
      396208 401218 403221 403226 401231 405234 412236 418236
      422231 423229
 0.25 418712 416709 413710 408717 402732 398740 394747 393751
      393759 392766 389774 386782 377796 373802 371807 371811
      373822 375830 380834 384836 383839 381849 380858 379870
      375877 372884 369894 363908 356923 348938 339952 333962
      325975 315993 314999 314002 316004 319004 322002 327997
      341977 347972 350971 354971 359969 364962 369957 376952
      389945 394939 398933 402925 405917 408910 411900 414891
      415881 420863 421852 422841 420833 415826 401820 397820
      395820 394818 396807 399798 400790 401781 403771 405761
      405752 401751 400747 403740 409733 412727 416718 418712
 0.25 422102 423098 421095 419093 417091 414090 412089 410091
      409094 410096 411100 413102 415104 418105 420104 422102
 0.25 310062 309057 306055 294052 288052 282053 279055 274056
      268055 264053 256048 248043 238040 235039 231041 229046
      228051 229055 232059 238064 254075 270083 279087 285087
      289085 287076 288072 295071 303069 307067 308064 310062
      310062
 0.25 295820 293816 290814 284812 278808 272805 265804 262805
      261809 264815 268822 276823 283824 288824 292823 295820
 0.50 436105 437101 437098 435093 433090 429087 426086 424090
      425093 426098 425103 423107 426110 431109 434107 436105
 0.50 420230 418220 417215 417208 418201 419195 416194 413198
      412195 414191 414188 409189 403195 400206 404214 409221
      414229 418231 420230
 0.50 413879 417862 419849 417840 415833 412829 409828 405831
      399837 396839 394844 393857 389866 385875 381883 378892
      375904 371912 366919 359926 350941 339956 337961 331969
      322985 319992 319995 320997 323997 328992 337979 342973
      350968 354967 357964 363957 369951 377947 386943 392938
      398929 401921 408900 410891 413879
 0.50 409056 409049 405044 401039 399032 396027 390024 383015
      384008 384003 383000 380995 375990 369988 364991 364998
      367005 371017 364016 361020 363024 364026 368028 367033
      369035 372035 373030 372025 373021 376021 380026 381028
      379031 378036 381042 383045 385048 386054 390059 392067
      390071 385074 381078 385080 387078 392080 394073 396071
      400070 404066 408061 409056
 0.50 396786 394784 392785 387790 382795 378802 376806 376810
      378819 380821 383820 388815 391808 393800 396791 396786
 0.50 281076 278067 274064 271060 268062 266064 262063 255056
      248050 242048 236049 235054 237058 244064 253069 263072
      272079 276080 281078 281076
 0.50 276071 276069 275067 273067 271066 269065 268066 267066
      269068 269069 271070 272071 273071 274072 276072 276071
 1.00 399917 401908 404899 406890 408883 410873 413861 415855
      416850 416845 414841 413839 411839 409841 407843 406845
      406851 404859 403863 401866 399869 392881 387896 380911
      377918 374925 371931 370937 372940 374943 379943 384940
      389934 393929 399917
 1.00 395041 394039 394036 393034 393033 391032 391031 389030
      389029 388028 386027 385029 384031 384033 385036 387038
      389040 389041 390042 392043 394043 395041
 1.00 376003 377001 376999 376998 375997 374996 373995 372994
      371993 369994 369996 369999 370001 371002 372003 374004
      376003 376003
 1.00 369938 366934 361938 356942 352947 345958 337967 329977
      326984 324990 328988 332983 339973 348965 353960 357956
      366945 369938
 1.50 404884 405880 405877 404877 403877 401881 402884 403885
      404884
 1.50 391038 391036 391035 390034 389033 387032 387031 386031
      385031 386032 387034 389036 390038 391039 391038
 1.50 332980 336975 341969 348962 350960 350958 349958 347959
      344963 340966 331977 329980 330982 332980

$$





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