Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 21/1200 UTC THRU AUG 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES CAMS... CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE QPF DETAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERLIES...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WITH
LOCATION/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH MCS GENESIS AND TRACK.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE PERIOD (MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE) PER A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN BROAD-SCALE FORCING...AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION.

WPC QPF LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS
FCST) WITH HRRR/NBM TRENDS EARLY (THROUGH 18Z MON)...THEREAFTER A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST NBM AND HREF
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY


24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 525991 525973 525958 525949 522947 518944 513942 507944
      500949 489971 480972 477974 471973 467973 464971 459964
      462954 463947 464942 468915 469900 470893 472890 475885
      477879 480868 484859 487849 491834 494823 500805 502796
      503790 503785 504779 503775 506772 511767 511758 510752
      509750 507735 506727 504720 502705 500699 499695 497693
      493701 490702 489696 487690 484686 481683 477684 477689
      475695 472694 469694 466699 463706 459715 456723 455729
      451731 449741 448748 449753 450768 447773 445775 442776
      436782 432783 429779 430765 432751 433746 432739 426730
      422729 419731 412736 405741 397746 390747 387751 382758
      377766 374774 375780 376783 376789 374794 369801 367806
      363809 357817 351824 348827 347831 346837 345842 347845
      352844 355840 359832 362823 366817 372813 396785 399782
      402781 403792 396812 401811 403806 404810 404814 403818
      399822 398830 398836 399841 400853 399859 396861 391864
      387867 382875 379878 376882 370885 365887 360886 357885
      352886 348888 347892 348896 351899 356901 361901 366903
      368905 368908 369912 371913 371916 368932 367943 367951
      368956 370968 370973 368976 364986 363989 363995 363001
      363005 361007 359006 358001 355000 350002 343006 340010
      337015 333023 330027 326027 323025 314024 303027 295031
      292033 288037 282044 276049 268050 262059 259060 253059
      243056 237053 234056 233059 237064 240068 243070 248072
      252074 258081 266087 285091 290089 294086 298083 303082
      307081 309077 309072 312068 318063 324070 329070 334069
      340070 343074 347081 349084 353086 357082 361080 364088
      368091 371091 375089 378086 385077 391071 394068 397072
      403066 405063 410061 416059 422053 420046 418042 411038
      402034 398034 396036 390041 386044 383044 382042 380037
      384034
 0.01 384034 395023 401029 403030 407028 413024 423023 431028
      436033 440033 442030 444029 449024 455017 463014 473014
      480010 495004 500006 503008 509014 511017 516018 521012
      525991
 0.01 510890 510879 507873 504869 499872 496878 494883 488896
      485909 482927 482935 482939 484940 489937 492932 498921
      503908 506902 508896 510890
 0.01 416727 415717 412713 409718 407723 402726 396725 393726
      391729 390734 390739 392741 398741 402740 403738 408734
      413731 416727
 0.01 409108 409105 409103 410101 410098 408098 406100 405102
      405105 405107 407108 409108 409108
 0.01 389201 386195 380190 380181 379177 378174 376175 372181
      369182 367180 362184 363188 365190 372194 376200 377204
      381205 386206 388203 389201
 0.01 396112 394110 392111 389113 385114 382113 379113 375113
      372115 369116 364115 361113 356112 345104 342101 342095
      339088 334082 334078 336078 336073 334074 331075 330078
      328081 326083 328085 328089 324089 319088 316086 315089
      315093 320098 323101 322106 324110 326111 328109 330103
      332100 337101 339106 340111 343114 346116 349120 350125
      349131 354135 346137 350144 352151 357157 362161 366160
      368156 369153 367149 362143 362140 366138 369137 371136
      373138 378137 382131 388118 396112
 0.01 368210 368209 366208 365207 365206 363205 361205 359205
      359206 360208 361209 362210 364211 366212 368211 368210
 0.01 369736 368729 364728 354725 344724 343721 341720 338719
      336721 316753 312762 309772 307777 304781 298789 295793
      293787 296779 304772 306770 302770 296769 292767 282764
      260764 238791 236795 237801 236808 235814 235819 237822
      241826 243831 244837 242841 241846 242850 247857 253861
      264862 266867 266872 264884 262896 264901 264908 263915
      264921 266924 264927 259933 250936 245938 243940 243944
      243951 241956 239960 236964 234970 235977 239984 241988
      241994 242998 246996 247991 252990 255986 258982 262979
      265975 268974 271976 273981 276983 280984 283983 290981
      293977 296973 297967 299962 303953 309945 311940 311932
      310926 306922 304921 303918 302915 307912 310907 314901
      315896 315890 315882 316877 316870 318864 319851 320845
      316845 313846 312844 310839 310834 313832 318830 322827
      327822 332819 335815 341807 345798 351789 355778 356774
      355767 355759 357755 361748 366742 369736
 0.01 343838 342836 342834 340834 339834 337836 337839 339841
      341840 343838 343838
 0.01 332846 330844 328844 327846 327848 327850 329850 331850
      331848 332846 332846
 0.01 315109 316107 316105 316103 316101 314099 314098 312098
      311097 309097 307097 307098 307100 308102 308104 308105
      309107 310107 311109 311110 313110 315110 315109
 0.01 288820 286813 281815 275814 269813 264812 257812 256816
      257817 263821 267823 272825 278827 283827 286823 288820
 0.25 477717 477714 478712 478709 476707 475708 473710 472712
      471713 471716 471718 471721 473722 474721 476720 476719
      477717 477717
 0.25 482819 475805 473800 472794 469788 465789 463791 458796
      456803 455811 453820 451823 449824 446815 445811 441809
      438810 436812 433821 430825 425829 422831 422837 421843
      417859 414866 412870 409872 403874 398872 378893 376897
      376902 378906 380907 387908 386915 383922 380929 377936
      375940 375945 377961 377969 375979 375988 375997 377006
      380008 383005 391993 398984 403979 407977 408978 411981
      411986 411999 413006 417007 420006 429999 434998 436000
      441006 444003 444000 441994 437988 435984 436979 440964
      442955 444947 448941 452933 456916 460902 461893 462887
      462881 464874 469865 472860 475852 477845 479837 482819
 0.25 420752 416749 412750 408752 403755 398761 395764 392762
      388762 385765 381773 381776 384778 389776 393773 396771
      401771 405772 409770 414762 418755 420752
 0.25 421792 422789 422787 421785 420784 419783 418782 417782
      415783 413785 413786 412788 412789 411791 412793 412794
      414795 414796 416795 416794 417792 418792 419793 421792
      421792
 0.25 416821 417818 417816 417814 416811 416809 415807 414809
      415812 414813 413814 412815 411817 410819 410821 411824
      413825 415824 416823 416821 416821
 0.25 380074 380069 380067 378064 375064 373066 373071 373075
      373080 373083 376082 378080 379076 380074
 0.25 368059 368056 369053 369050 365048 362045 359045 357049
      354051 352055 353060 355062 358067 360067 362062 366060
      368059
 0.25 352746 350742 347741 340737 328746 324753 320760 317767
      319778 318786 312792 308797 306806 305810 303814 301823
      301827 299831 301836 299840 296842 294843 298844 300848
      299851 299861 298865 299870 302879 304888 306891 309888
      312868 313864 312859 310850 307840 306835 306831 310825
      316820 327808 330801 335795 339789 340784 343780 345777
      345773 345763 349752 352746
 0.25 352020 352015 349017 347022 345025 341026 338030 339036
      340039 344039 346035 349031 351026 352022 352020
 0.25 300947 300945 299945 298947 299949 300947
 0.25 288066 287064 284062 281062 277061 273061 270061 268062
      266066 267068 270071 273072 276072 279071 282071 285070
      287068 288066
 0.25 284844 283840 282838 280836 277834 273836 271837 269839
      268843 270846 272848 274849 278850 281848 283846 284844
 0.25 261831 260829 258829 257830 258832 260833 261831
 0.25 256950 256947 255946 255945 254945 252944 250944 250943
      248943 246943 245945 245947 245950 245952 246954 246955
      247956 248957 250957 251956 252955 253954 254953 255952
      255950 256950
 0.25 249964 249962 249960 248958 246959 246960 245962 245964
      246965 248964 249964
 0.50 475830 474828 472831 471836 470838 469841 468846 468851
      467853 468858 469858 471855 472852 473848 473845 474840
      475838 475832 475830
 0.50 470801 470795 466797 463802 462805 462812 463817 462822
      461827 461831 462834 465830 466824 466817 468812 469807
      470802 470801
 0.50 453894 453889 451887 448881 437885 434880 430879 430876
      429872 431869 434866 438861 440859 440854 440849 442847
      448844 449838 445834 443831 440830 436833 433838 430845
      426850 423857 421863 420871 418877 415882 410882 403880
      401879 397881 396883 397889 398895 399900 398905 394915
      386926 379937 377942 377949 378957 379963 379983 380988
      381991 384991 386989 393981 400972 403966 406964 409965
      412971 414979 417994 422994 425989 427982 428974 433959
      437945 440940 440934 436929 435925 436919 432908 436894
      440891 443892 443894 443904 441912 439918 443924 447928
      449923 452908 453894
 0.50 389769 387769 387772 388772 389770 389769
 0.50 387895 387893 387890 386889 385888 383890 383891 381893
      381895 380898 380899 380900 382902 383901 385900 385899
      387897 387895
 0.50 365054 364052 363051 362052 361052 360054 361056 363055
      365054
 0.50 343755 342753 342752 342753 340754 339755 340756 342757
      343755
 0.50 329755 327753 326755 325755 325758 326760 328757 329755
 0.50 325762 326760 324759 324760 323762 322762 321765 321766
      323766 324764 325762 325762
 0.50 320800 319799 319798 317796 316797 315798 315800 315802
      316804 318803 319802 320800 320800
 0.50 310863 309860 307857 306854 304852 302855 303857 303861
      303865 303869 305873 306871 308869 309865 310863
 0.50 280842 281840 280838 279836 277836 276836 275837 274838
      274840 275842 276844 277844 279843 280842
 1.00 426949 424924 421919 417919 412926 405934 402931 400928
      398926 395926 391929 386936 383939 380944 380949 380954
      382967 384974 386978 390976 394972 399966 401961 403955
      405951 407949 411954 413959 415963 417968 418974 421975
      423970 423964 424952 426949
 1.00 413905 413903 413901 412898 412896 411895 410894 410893
      408891 406891 406892 405894 405896 405899 405901 405903
      406905 406906 408907 409908 410908 411908 412907 413905
 1.50 400952 400943 398937 394936 389939 384943 382949 383954
      384963 386970 391971 394965 396961 400954 400952
 2.00 395956 396952 395948 395945 391944 388944 386946 384949
      384954 385959 386961 387964 391964 393961 394959 395956

$$





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