Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 021759
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 03/0000 UTC THRU JUN 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES/CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE EASTERN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS TN
INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NC/SC/NORTHERN GA WED.  FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES..
MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY.  WITH
ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EXPECTED..A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT
WILL KEEP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE/HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS QUASI-STATIONARY.  CONSEQUENTLY THE THREAT
AREA FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS PERSISTS.  ONE
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS/CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEASTERN VA..WITH ANOTHER RAINFALL
MAXIMA LIKELY IN WESTERN NC/SOUTHWESTERN VA IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE
AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT QPF-WISE..SO GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL QPF
BLEND FOR THE DAY 1 QPF. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THRU EASTERN NC AND SC/GA.

...FL...

THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE FL PENINSULA THIS PERIOD..ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.  THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED ON AN INVERTED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH/850 MB CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
PLUME NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL AS THE ECMWF FCSTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES WED. STUCK
CLOSE TO THE MODEL QPF CONSENSUS OF WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50" INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 1 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE.  THE GFS AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER DUE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA NOT SHARED BY THE OTHER MODELS...SO
THE CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS..A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA TONIGHT INTO
WED SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF SD INTO NE.
MODEL QPFS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS AND NAM REDEVELOP NEW ACTIVITY
IN EASTERN SD WED AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT SO GREATER THAN
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THERE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 850 MB FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FRONT WED.  OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN AND
IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB JET SHOULD
INDUCE ASCENT THAT RESULTS IN SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING WED.
MANUAL PROGS WERE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM QPF GUIDANCE.

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF PACIFIC NW THIS PERIOD..WITH ONE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE DEPARTING ID AND NORTHWEST MT INTO ADJACENT CANADIAN
PROVINCES...WITH FRONTAL PRECIP MOVING NORTH IN TANDEM. ANOTHER
REINFORCING WAVE CROSSES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA INTO NV ON WED. GRADUALLY FALLING
HEIGHTS/COOLING ALOFT AND ENHANCED LIFT WITH THE INDIVIDUAL S/WVS
WILL SUPPORT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN NORTHEAST
NV/NORTHERN UT/CENTRAL MT...EXTRA SUPPORT IS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTION OF DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE MAXIMA.  MANUAL QPF
BLENDED THE AMOUNTS FROM CONTINUITY AND THE NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM/GFS/UKMET.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 490613 491629 491644 490650 488657 488664 489672 488688
      486696 481696 477699 469701 466702 464705 461709 457714
      453717 450719 444717 442712 443707 449697 451690 452683
      450677 448672 446670 438662 431663 427664 424667 416674
      412679 410684 404692 401696 396699 395701 391702 390704
      388703 387708 389713 391714 395714 399717 403721 406729
      407736 406743 407751 408759 407766 406771 405777 403783
      400788 397800 395803 394808 395815 395822 393828 393833
      391835 387838 377844 370852 364859 359861 353862 346863
      342860 330861 326861 322863 320866 314877 313884 313891
      312896 311899 307899 303902 303909 301922 297924 292922
      289917 289907 289899 290893 290885 291879 291863 288857
      285854 282850 279846 275843 270841 265839 258839 251839
      245841 240840 236836 230825 224801 224795 225789 232784
      236781 242779 247777 252774 259775 268775 280775 284776
      288775 292773 304769 322759 332752 341745 344741 350737
      355732 358727 363718 366712 368707 370704 375701 381699
      384701 386703 387700 386695 387688 388682 390676 395665
      401652 410640
 0.01 535217 533206 533196 529176 522162 519153 518143 512123
      507099 505089 504084 503077 502066 501059 500054 496046
      501043 504041 506037 509025 514008 516001 518989 519960
      519943 520936 520927 521913 522901 522893 523888 523873
      522866 521861 519857 519851 519847 519839 518825 510813
      507810 505810 502811 500815 491832 483846 479856 472863
      467868 461874 437894 431899 426905 417915 407925 402931
      397938 392946 391952 390958 389964 389972 390977 390984
      392988 392995 392006 391011 390017 389022 387026 383033
      383039 384042 388049 392054 398060 407064 414067 420072
      425079 426082 424083 421084 417087 412087 408089 405092
      399099 395104 396111 404116 406117 409117 413116 415114
      421110 426110 429109 444107 444115 444123 444128 443132
      438140 435143 431144 426143 424138 422136 417137 401138
      398139 395143 393146 391150 393160 398162 405160 408160
      412162 416171 420174 426175 430167 431164 430158 430155
      432155 435153 438152 442152 445157 444160 443167 441171
      437181 435185 435190 433193 434196 439199 440198 442195
      445191 450189 454189 458187 462183 459175 458171 461168
      464167 466167 469170 474171 477175 479181 480188 479195
      477202 471208 468210 465211 462215 458216 452217 449218
      444217 437211 434210 432212 430214 429218 430223 428227
      427233 429235 428240 428243 434246 438245 447243 451243
      454243 455246 457254 458259 462259 477259 483255 488251
      493257 497265 502280 505282 507279 505269 504265 501261
      499257 503257 508261 511266 513277 516277 519274 520269
      519265 519260 521258 525255 527250 535217
 0.01 473021 472016 471014 470009 469006 468004 467002 465003
      463004 461006 460010 461013 464016 466018 468020 470021
      471023 473021
 0.25 477618 478620 479624 480629 481634 480638 479641 478643
      474645 473645 470642 469638 468633 468628 468626 468621
 0.25 522221 523213 524204 523192 521180 520173 518166 508148
      503138 496128 495124 494117 494114 493109 488101 485099
      484100 482104 480101 477096 476091 473087 468085 459083
      457084 456088 456098 458103 460107 464110 469110 476114
      481110 482115 487123 490127 491132 492139 490147 486161
      485169 485177 485183 487188 489191 495194 498194 501196
      502202 504208 504214 503220 501221 500219 497215 491212
      485211 481211 477214 474218 472224 469227 473232 477236
      479236 481232 483227 487223 490223 495224 500225 502228
      505232 511234 517229 520225 522221
 0.25 514884 515862 514857 512854 509854 505859 502865 493878
      486889 482893 478896 472897 468898 460900 454903 444911
      436918 427928 417936 412940 409945 404957 403965 403975
      406993 407001 409008 416018 423027 427033 430042 436054
      440059 444062 447062 450059 452051 450032 448024 445018
      445008 446002 448994 452986 454977 457971 464971 465974
      468975 479972 483972 485975 487979 488989 488002 488013
      490020 494021 497015 502001 504991 506980 510943 512922
      513900 514884
 0.25 477671 477669 476666 476664 475664 475662 475659 475657
      474656 473655 472654 471655 471656 470658 470661 470663
      471665 472668 473670 473671 474672 475674 477672 477671
 0.25 458133 458130 457130 456130 457133 458133
 0.25 396749 395743 392738 389734 384731 380730 375730 364737
      347749 338756 328762 319769 313775 294788 290791 284794
      281794 278790 274786 270783 264782 257782 247786 241793
      236804 235809 236818 238823 241827 246829 251829 256828
      262826 264824 268824 272827 279834 286839 290843 294849
      297852 300853 304853 313848 321844 332839 344835 354830
      360828 363827 371833 374830 378824 382821 382815 384802
      388791 389784 390776 393763 395756 396749
 0.50 515195 516189 517182 515173 511167 507160 502155 499154
      497156 494166 494171 495176 496179 499180 502180 506182
      510187 514195 515195
 0.50 510893 510884 509877 507872 505873 495891 485907 482913
      479917 475919 470921 466920 463917 460915 455915 448920
      440927 428938 419943 415946 412950 409961 408973 411984
      411992 412998 415009 418013 422015 428008 431004 435999
      439990 442980 450957 454947 458940 465932 469930 473935
      474940 474947 473953 474958 477961 481962 492960 496959
      500956 503946 505933 507918 509905 510893
 0.50 447046 447041 447038 446034 445031 443029 442026 438026
      437027 435030 434033 434037 435040 436042 438045 441047
      443048 444048 447046
 0.50 389753 388744 384740 381738 377739 370742 358749 346757
      334763 322773 314783 304793 300796 296802 295806 297810
      294815 292822 290828 295834 301837 315834 329828 336825
      343824 350821 357817 365807 370803 375798 379792 382786
      385770 388761 389753
 0.50 271797 270793 267790 261788 254789 248794 244799 241807
      242815 246820 249821 254821 260817 264811 267805 270799
      271797
 1.00 430954 427954 425956 421956 418959 418966 420971 420978
      422982 425982 427978 428973 428967 426965 427961 429957
      430954
 1.00 382754 379751 376751 372753 369757 360758 348760 342766
      336773 328790 324799 320808 316817 316821 318824 321822
      329818 335810 341803 352800 358794 365787 369779 373769
      379763 382754
 1.00 259799 259798 257797 256797 255798 253799 252800 250802
      251804 252805 254806 256805 258804 258803 259801 259800
      259799
 1.50 360778 359773 353773 350773 345774 344779 342783 341788
      342791 344792 350791 353788 356785 359781 360778

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.