Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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839
FXUS04 KWBC 140647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 14/1200 UTC THRU JAN 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL PIVOT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES FAR SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON AZ/NM WHERE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED SINCE THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FARTHER NORTH...RATHER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING RAIN AND SOME SNOW TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SERN
U.S...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IMPACTING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
OVERRUNNING AN ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AXIS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY AND EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN...WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK/KS AND WESTERN MO THIS PERIOD. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A CHILLY RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER INTO THE ACTUALLY FRONTAL ZONE. BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTING
TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE NOSE
OF A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FOSTER
SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND POSSIBLY REACHING OUT INTO WESTERN
TX. IN FACT THE LATEST ARW INDICATES A POOLING OF 500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM WHICH WILL BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE STRONG UPSTREAM ENERGY. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY BE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAIN RATES.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 507279 506273 502267 500261 496256 493251 489252 490260
      492266 495272 498278 503282 507279
 0.01 501827 500817 496817 493816 492818 488822 483824 480829
      478835 472834 469838 467843 470849 473853 475855 475859
      475867 476872 480869 485860 489848 493838 499829 501827
 0.01 464708 465704 464701 462701 455703 453707 450709 448717
      445725 443732 442742 444745 447744 450736 452728 454724
      456722 460716 464708 464708
 0.01 459812 459810 459808 459805 459803 458802 457801 456800
      455800 453801 453804 453806 453808 454809 455811 455813
      456813 457813 459813 459812
 0.01 413255 411250 407247 403243 398241 389236 379230 370232
      364233 361235 360239 362244 366248 370251 377252 381251
      393255 397258 403260 408260 412257 413255
 0.01 410718 408704 404691 400684 394679 387675 381676 377679
      373681 371685 367692 365700 361709 350719 339730 333735
      328741 323749 319759 316767 315776 316787 320789 324786
      330781 336775 342770 345766 351765 361763 365764 369767
      374769 378776 380788 380793 379798 375802 371804 363810
      359816 358821 356825 351831 348835 343836 341839 342844
      346846 349846 351847 353857 353868 353878 351887 350891
      347895 345901 342911 342917 341923 340928 338933 330939
      326945 323954 317960 309964 304964 299966 296968 294972
      288976 284976 281978 273981 273984 276987 287987 287994
      287000 287003 285005 280003 278007 274016 276022 278025
      281029 281033 282036 286039 291046 296054 291064 287065
      282065 271063 261063 253065 250067 248069 244077 247083
      259092 259098 257104 259113 261120 256126 251132 249136
      251140 256144 265143 269142 274143 280147 286152 291159
      300169 304170 307171 309173 315172 334167 340169 344169
      342165 339163 334161 332157 333148 335141 338138 345143
      349150 356151 367141 375139 377137 376134 371133 370131
      371129 372124 375122 382117 385115 386113 385108 389101
      393092 396083 402077 405066 406058 401057 394058 392056
      390052 388049 385051 378054 375055 373055 373052 374040
      375035 378032 384027 390021 395011 400996 404988 407978
      409966 407954 406950 406944 407935 406925 405914 400906
      395900 390894 388891 387884 387869 389858 390845 391836
      393825 397814 400806 404798 408789 410784 410780 411776
      411771 411762 409756 407752 403746 401736 406729 409724
      410718
 0.01 311805 310799 308796 305799 301802 300804 298809 295813
      295817 294820 298822 301819 305816 306814 308810 311805
      311805
 0.01 307943 305941 301938 297939 294943 292945 288949 288954
      290956 296956 298954 301952 304947 307943 307943
 0.01 270800 270793 266792 262792 256793 253795 250797 248802
      246805 247809 250806 254804 257802 261803 265801 270800
      270800
 0.25 392706 391702 388700 382702 377707 374715 372722 372728
      373733 377739 381740 383737 386731 388721 391713 392706
 0.25 394801 394796 392795 388797 380805 373812 366818 362822
      360827 360834 364835 375832 382836 384825 388814 392805
      394801
 0.25 393963 394956 391950 388941 387937 384932 377926 375917
      377906 378895 378882 377875 375871 372868 368866 364884
      362903 360913 356923 348968 346978 342988 335002 324017
      318024 314033 312037 312043 317048 317054 316059 310064
      302070 295073 282073 272071 263069 256069 252071 252076
      254079 257082 264089 266098 269101 273104 281108 284109
      284115 281123 273126 265128 262129 262132 265134 275134
      295141 301145 309143 316142 321139 318134 315131 314128
      315125 319118 322115 327113 331114 335116 342121 345124
      349125 365121 378109 381097 384093 384087 385079 381073
      377066 374063 370061 366057 367052 367042 368036 370030
      374022 383008 387001 391990 391977 392967 393963
 0.25 378744 378741 377740 376742 377744 377746 378744
 0.25 346750 345748 343749 341750 341751 340752 340753 342754
      343752 345751 346750
 0.25 346090 346089 345087 344087 344089 345090 346090 346090
 0.50 384995 385984 384973 379962 376954 372949 370945 370941
      371932 369923 366920 365921 361926 359932 355949 355959
      355967 356971 356975 354984 348993 345001 341008 338012
      335019 332027 327030 321033 318037 318042 320044 325048
      331051 336051 345051 351049 355045 357037 361031 366027
      370022 373017 380006 384995
 0.50 362067 362063 360062 358060 355060 346063 338063 331062
      324063 321066 310072 301077 295077 289077 276074 268073
      265073 262074 261078 262082 264084 271093 275097 279099
      287101 293103 298111 302113 305112 307109 308106 308102
      310096 314092 319090 332088 340082 349076 358071 362067
 0.50 352115 349110 347107 345104 343100 340096 338093 334093
      334097 335104 335108 338113 341115 345117 348118 350117
      352115
 0.50 311137 309130 306125 303121 301119 298118 292121 288124
      285128 289131 294134 299138 303140 306139 311137
 1.00 376001 374998 371999 365999 362997 359994 357995 352002
      350013 348024 348029 352028 359024 367019 372012 376003
      376001
 1.00 341074 340070 335071 329072 316075 311079 306081 300082
      292082 283081 279080 275081 274084 275089 280091 295091
      299091 301089 305085 312082 318081 320079 325079 330079
      338076 341074
 1.00 339041 340037 337035 333036 331036 328037 324037 322037
      322040 324042 327043 331044 335044 337043 339041
 1.00 304133 303133 301133 303134 304133
 1.50 365014 366012 366010 365008 363009 362009 360012 359014
      359016 361014 363015 365014 365014

$$





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