Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...WESTERN CONUS...

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NE AND EVENTUALLY E DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD...AND IN EFFECT
GRADUALLY FLATTENING THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SW
CANADA AND THE NW CONUS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF EXIT-REGION DYNAMICAL FORCING (UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...DPVA...LOW-MID LAYER WAA) WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL MAINTAIN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE PAC NW
EARLY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES. WPC AREAL AVERAGE
QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...I.E.
GENERALLY .10 TO .25 INCH WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE BASED ON THE LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE (PARTICULARLY THE HIGH-RES).

OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS THE SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO A
WEAK W-E UPPER JET STREAK (GRADIENT) AND ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE PERIOD (LATE TODAY THROUGH 12Z TUE).
PWS BETWEEN 1.00-1.25 INCHES (CLOSE TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE) ALONG WITH MUCAPES AVERAGING 400-800 J/KG
WILL PRESENT A FAIRLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...CERTAINLY WHEN COMPARED TO NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE FORCING (PER THE FLATTENING MID/UPPER
FLOW)... CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN .10 TO .25 INCH
(THOUGH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF .50-1.00+ INCH PER THE
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE).


...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

ALONG THE LINGERING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS MAKING AN UNSEASONABLE
RUN AT THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS...MUCH OF
THE ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD
OCCUR OFFSHORE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT CUTS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
BETTER MODEL SIGNAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL IS OVER FLORIDA (AT
LEAST THROUGH THE NRN HALF)...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN .50 TO 1.00 INCH ALONG THE MAX QPF
AXIS...HOWEVER...MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH THE
HIGH PWS (2.00-2.25") WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER
ISOLATED TOTALS BEFORE THE WSW LOW LEVEL INFLOW (~20 KTS) VEERS
MORE WNW AND SHIFTS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW-AIDED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BOTH THE NSSL-WRF
AND WRF-ARW SHOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5+ INCHES JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND TAMPA.


...MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...ONE
SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING INTO THE MID MS VLY REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING... WHILE A SMALLER...LESS-AMPLIFIED WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...INCLUDING THEIR PRECIPITATION OUTPUT.
A MAXIMUM QPF SWATH IS EXPECTED OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE THE
COMPACT AREA OF DPVA AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST...WHILE ALSO COUPLING WITH FAVORABLE
PWS OF 1.25+ INCHES AND MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 533198 534171 531164 527158 522152 517149 504140 499134
      497130 500127 504122 507115 510108 510097 508086 505080
      498077 490076 478082 474086 469090 464094 461097 457098
      452096 449093 444088 439087 435087 434090 431090 428087
      425086 423089 423094 425097 425101 423103 422107 424112
      427113 431114 436116 441120 441125 440129 435135 433143
      435152 439158 444163 447166 448172 447177 448182 451180
      457175 459177 457179 455181 451185 457187 462181 463175
      462171 466170 470171 472171 473165 472160 475162 480166
      485171 486182 487187 485190 483196 481199 470206 466211
      464214 465217 470223 476222 484222 488222 491224 494233
      498239 501244 504251 508259 509264 512267 516267 517264
      518257 517254 511239 510234 511229 515224 521219 525214
      530205 533198
 0.01 323052 320052 321056 319058 317061 319063 326062 332063
      339064 342066 348068 350073 340075 334075 330078 323084
      321090 317086 312085 308086 305091 302091 293085 280070
      252040 231021 223014 218021 220054 241075 258088 275100
      286108 296114 301115 303117 308120 314124 320126 328121
      331119 334119 337120 341125 345131 347133 351133 358134
      363132 366128 367121 363119 358118 356115 353113 353111
      352106 352102 355102 357105 360105 362107 365105 362100
      365095 364089 358087 357085 358082 363079 378090 381083
      386079 388078 390081 393080 399074 398071 398069 403065
      407063 409061 407057 399051 392048 387046 380045 377042
      378037 380035 385032 390028 394024 393020 390017 388015
      384015 379017 375018 372013 367012 361013 354015 346014
      342003 342996 343991 344987 347989 349988 350982 347967
      348952 350920 356909 360898 366885 369879 373874 376868
      378867 382867 391870 399871 403876 407880 407884 405886
      394891 391896 390902 390908 391910 394915 405921 419938
      436950 442953 446957 453957 459955 485950 493949 497947
      502947 503939 506907 515897 517895 516892 513884 511875
      511869 516854 518847 519840 519832 517826 515823 515819
      518814 523802 529791 533777 534768 535760 534749 533741
      530728 527722 524719 517716 512718 508721 502727 496734
      493741 488751 485760 482769 479779 475805 472815 469826
      466839 462849 458857 455859 452859 446860 443860 441856
      439851 438847 437839 438828 440817 441811 442804 446795
      450785 451780 451773 447766 442760 434757 442751 445749
      446747 450744 451738 450731 452718 456708 455702 450703
      442708 437714 431720 427748 423756 421760 418757 414757
      410758 406764 405773 403778 396783 387790 381796 375801
      370807 355818 349825 347829 346835 345841 344845 339853
      334861 333866 333874 333885 332889 329892 326897 324902
      325912 326926 323922 322917 320904 318894 317888 315884
      314877 316872 316865 315854 312845 309835 308829 309824
      309818 310813 312808 314803 317800 321796 336783 345777
      352771 356763 358753 363746 368740 374731 378723 383715
      387707 392689 394684 394677 392671 390669 380668 374669
      371671 366675 363679 358686 355691 352694 348696 343698
      336701 331704 329707 317722 311730 306737 302743 297750
      288764 280771 273776 266782 260789 257797 256801 253804
      255809 258810 265813 264817 264822 268830 272839 276847
      278853 279859 278864 279871 285889 287896 288902 291911
      293918 293925 293931 291936 289941 287945 283947 277947
      261950 250953 244957 241961 239965 239973 240978 246982
      252984 262982 266981 272980 283979 288978 291979 295983
      297986 296989 296996 298000 308000 313995 319988 323981
      326976 328976 330979 329992 329000 327005 325019 323022
      323027 322033 324035 330037 334040 339045 337050 334052
      328052 323052
 0.01 502278 504269 502262 497254 494249 491245 488240 482238
      480236 480232 479229 477229 473236 472240 476244 482246
      486250 491258 496268 502278 502278
 0.01 502650 499638 494631 488626 479629 472635 467642 463651
      461661 460667 461674 463688 464695 466700 471708 476715
      479719 483719 485719 489716 493708 496699 498688 502666
      502650
 0.01 453081 451078 450075 448073 446072 445070 443067 440067
      440069 441072 443072 444075 446077 449080 451080 453081
 0.01 431166 427158 423150 422145 422138 424134 425127 423128
      419128 415137 413150 411164 416172 418175 421174 427168
      431166
 0.01 411108 411105 411103 411101 410098 409096 408095 406095
      405098 405100 405102 405105 405107 404109 405112 407112
      409111 409110 411108 411108
 0.01 386200 387194 384191 382187 379183 376181 370180 365179
      362181 362187 367189 370192 374194 378196 382199 385200
      386200
 0.01 347176 346167 344162 340159 335161 331163 327160 321155
      312151 307151 306154 308157 314161 323166 332170 341173
      341178 346178 347176
 0.01 311043 310040 308036 305030 299027 296028 292027 287024
      283024 281026 281030 282034 287039 293044 300045 309045
      311043
 0.25 529194 530184 529175 526168 522163 517157 512153 505153
      504155 505158 510162 514168 518173 516174 514170 512168
      506166 503165 501167 500172 501175 503183 507189 513192
      518196 523200 526201 528199 529194
 0.25 525759 524749 522741 519737 513738 508742 506746 498758
      494769 492777 491785 491792 492800 494802 497803 502801
      510791 517782 520776 522770 525759
 0.25 497205 498200 496198 493199 491200 489201 487202 485207
      486211 489211 491211 494210 495207 497205
 0.25 493666 493656 490649 486643 483644 479650 476655 476659
      477661 481666 484672 485681 488682 490680 492674 493666
 0.25 494148 493146 492145 492144 490143 488143 487142 485141
      484141 484140 482139 480139 479138 477139 478142 480144
      481144 483145 484146 485146 486147 488147 489148 491149
      493149 494148
 0.25 498901 498893 496888 488887 484889 481892 477900 475905
      472910 470909 469902 470900 473898 475895 478885 484864
      487855 495850 493835 485833 482828 480831 476837 468857
      464865 459872 452879 445882 436885 427888 421893 413897
      402899 399901 399905 426923 430926 433930 436933 440935
      444935 448934 455930 465929 472926 480922 489920 496911
      497911 498907 498901
 0.25 439794 440787 438781 433777 426776 421777 418780 415788
      411794 403797 397800 389805 385810 384814 386817 392820
      393826 391829 386835 382840 378842 375841 370842 367844
      360847 356851 353851 355855 353853 351857 349861 349865
      362862 372851 377845 381845 379848 378852 379857 386856
      391854 399856 402859 405859 411859 418858 421855 422851
      421837 423828 430814 439794
 0.25 431094 429093 429092 428091 427091 428093 428094 429095
      431094
 0.25 381706 382701 381697 376693 372693 369695 365698 359700
      355704 345712 336720 329727 322737 316746 309756 303765
      296775 291784 289790 284794 277795 275800 270804 271810
      279817 277824 277829 278833 283843 286849 286857 287865
      288870 290877 292886 297895 302906 304909 306907 306901
      305896 305892 305885 305876 306869 306864 306855 303840
      301833 301824 304813 308802 316794 332777 346760 354750
      361742 368731 374722 378714 381706
 0.25 376069 376068 375066 374066 374069 374070 376070 376069
 0.25 365052 365050 363046 361045 359045 356046 354047 352049
      351053 352056 354058 357058 359057 361056 365054 365052
 0.25 357834 357832 357830 357828 356827 356828 355829 354830
      354833 353835 353837 353839 353842 352844 354845 355844
      356842 356841 356839 357837 357836 357834
 0.25 350868 348868 346875 346879 345884 343889 343895 343897
      346897 347893 347890 347886 347879 348875 350868 350868
 0.25 338097 339095 339093 338092 338091 337089 335086 334085
      333086 333088 333090 333092 334093 334095 335095 336095
      338097 338097
 0.25 318116 318114 318110 319108 317106 316103 314102 311102
      309104 309109 310111 311115 312118 314119 317118 318116
 0.25 313930 312928 312927 311926 310925 308925 307926 306927
      306928 306929 308930 308931 310931 312931 313930
 0.25 303106 303105 301104 299104 297104 297105 299106 301106
      302106 303106
 0.25 283082 282078 278076 269073 264066 259061 249058 241058
      242061 246064 251069 258073 265078 272083 277086 282084
      283082
 0.25 235051 236049 235047 234046 234045 233043 232043 231041
      230041 229041 228043 227045 228047 228048 229049 230051
      232052 234053 235051
 0.50 471878 472870 469870 464873 461875 459880 458884 456889
      454894 456897 460898 463895 465893 468889 470885 471879
      471878
 0.50 445904 445900 443899 439897 436896 431895 427898 427903
      431906 433909 435916 437918 441919 444916 443913 445906
      445904
 0.50 430807 428803 425803 417803 411807 405806 399807 397810
      396814 400820 403822 402825 393836 388842 386845 386849
      395848 401850 404854 407852 414849 416839 415830 415821
      422819 426814 430807
 0.50 418816 418814 416811 414811 412812 411814 412817 413818
      414818 416816 418816 418816
 0.50 375712 375707 373704 368705 364708 358712 349720 339728
      330737 323747 315756 310767 305779 298789 296795 297800
      301799 306795 325780 333772 341762 355743 370723 375712
 0.50 299809 296808 293810 286812 285819 282825 282833 284839
      287845 289854 289859 291861 294866 293873 294877 296880
      298883 300883 302876 302866 301857 299838 296824 296816
      298810 299809
 0.50 281082 281081 281080 279079 278078 277077 276077 274077
      272077 271077 272079 274081 275083 277083 279083 281083
      281082
 0.50 263072 263070 262068 261068 260066 258065 257064 255064
      253064 252065 253067 254069 256070 258071 259071 260072
      261073 263072
 1.00 411838 410831 408832 404834 401834 402838 401839 398837
      395839 400840 404843 407844 410840 411838
 1.00 352733 348734 343737 335741 328749 322757 318765 316771
      317774 319775 325773 328770 335763 341755 347747 350742
      352738 352733
 1.00 296845 296842 295838 294834 293832 291830 289828 287829
      287833 288836 289839 290843 290845 292849 293853 295851
      296847 296845

$$





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