Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 280700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 28/1200 UTC THRU JUN 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...WESTERN CONUS...

AN ELONGATED RIBBON OF HIGHLY-ANOMALOUS AVAILABLE PW (1.25-1.50+
INCHES) ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY ONE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PER THE ENSEMBLES. THIS ALONG WITH THE DEGREE/DEPTH OF
INSTABILITY (MIXED LAYER CAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS) AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SPARK SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED AND THEREBY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
COASTAL AND CASCADE RANGES. WHILE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH...PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCH ARE EXPECTED (PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE OF THE OREGON CASCADES).

FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND ALONG THE SIERRAS...INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT WITH MUCAPES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 400-800
J/KG... HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
OVER CA SOUTH OF THE MAIN VORT MAX. AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS OVER
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.01-0.10 INCH.

OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
HAD SLOSHED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED MONSOON-LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE...WITH STEERING FLOW CARRYING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OUT OF
THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. WPC
UTILIZED THE HRRR AND VARIOUS 00Z 4KM GUIDANCE
(WRF-ARW...NSSL-WRF...NAM CONEST) TO CAPTURE TRENDS IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" ON A 20 KM SCALE. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS ABOVE 1 INCH ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM/AZ.


...NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MATURE WARM/COLD CONVEYOR BELTS
(WBC/CCB) AND TROWAL WILL WILL CONTINUE MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS (0.75-1.25+ INCHES) WILL EXTEND FROM UPSTATE
NY E THROUGH MUCH OF NH/VT AND ME... WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT
FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN/WHITE
MTNS. THESE AREA THE AREAS THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD WITHIN THE WCB AND TROWAL...WITH THE ATTENDANT ANOMALOUS PW
ALONG A SE-NW ORIENTED AXIS OF STRONG LOW-MID LAYER MOISTURE FLUX
OFF THE GULF STREAM. DESPITE THE ROBUST DYNAMICAL/THERMODYNAMICAL
PROFILES...THE LACK OF EVEN ELEVATED INSTBY OVER THIS AREA WILL
INHIBIT SHORT-TERM (1-6 HOUR) RAINFALL RATES AND THUS THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONGER-FUSE FLOODING AND FLOOD WATCHES OVER THIS
REGION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...GULF COAST...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP PENETRATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL COUPLE WITH THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND DEVELOPING GULF
BREEZES TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50-1.00 INCH ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.


...MIDWEST...

AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TROUGH BASE
OVER THE OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (12Z MON). THE
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASED
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS MUCAPES CLIMB BETWEEN 1500-3000
J/KG. THE MODEL QPFS HAVE REMAINED REMARKABLY STABLE FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS AND SHOW REMARKABLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT. CONSIDERING
THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
AXES...RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FROM 12Z SUN - 12Z MON SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TO
STL AND EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP A CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...TO BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCH.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 414639 445633 451636 454637 458635 465631 470630 474631
      479636 485643 490652 494660 497669 499673 500681 502684
      503689 503700 501718 498737 494754 491764 486773 475783
      468790 465794 464799 462803 459805 453810 442820 431828
      426827 418828 403825 398821 395819 391815 381802 382797
      384795 390789 397785 402784 405782 409780 411777 413776
      416771 408757 407746 406736 407715 405711 401709 399707
      396705 394707 386713 381720 371732 363745 363749 361753
      357759 352764 349771 343784 328814 326823 324831 320852
      313886 311902 310923 309942 310954 309967 309978 306986
      297004 292016 290021 287023 281024 274022 267018 256011
      249007 247004 247000 244992 248986 256984 262982 267978
      274976 277974 280971 283968 284964 283941 282934 280925
      278918 275912 269896 268876 269837 264831 263825 264822
      267820 272820 276819 279820 281819 281816 284809 290797
      291794 292790 286793 278798 275800 271799 267799 263797
      264788 268781 274773 294752 312733 333710 338705 343699
      354686 363672 372660 376654 382648
 0.01 414639 412641 410641 409642 407643 405643 404644 404645
      402646 400647 399647 397648 397649 396650 394651 392652
      392653 391654 389655 388654 387652 385650 384648
 0.01 533179 533173 532167 528157 524153 521150 517148 511145
      507142 501141 496143 494148 494156 495157 496161 491169
      488172 486177 494181 498185 495189 493192 488194 478196
      469199 464196 463193 463189 464176 465161 466159 465152
      451138 448133 446128 443127 441128 437132 436138 435146
      435151 436155 442164 446172 446177 443182 439183 436179
      434172 432168 426160 421150 415148 413153 406151 400155
      415170 416175 420177 422182 420191 409200 375183 371180
      365179 361180 357183 360186 366189 374195 376198 380200
      388206 398209 405214 412213 415212 417214 417218 414221
      411223 408227 399228 398234 402236 411236 414238 413241
      416245 419246 424246 430246 433244 438245 442245 448247
      453246 455243 454240 454237 458237 468240 473242 477242
      496239 498240 500243 502249 506253 512255 512250 512246
      512241 516233 513223 507216 504213 502208 501201 502197
      503194 506189 511193 514198 517203 518207 523208 525204
      526196 533179
 0.01 526886 526881 525878 522871 520869 520866 520861 519856
      518851 516848 509848 505852 501857 495868 490873 485877
      480880 478882 478885 478890 477894 475896 473892 470885
      466880 463878 459884 454890 450890 449884 446877 442873
      435864 425856 412853 399850 393849 386849 380852 375856
      368870 365876 364883 363890 363899 363908 365917 371933
      372941 373947 374952 373954 371963 371971 375971 389947
      391945 394945 396952 401955 403957 408957 415955 419952
      423946 428941 433939 440939 446940 454941 470938 482935
      493930 499929 505926 510921 512915 514911 515907 518897
      518893 519891 521890 524889 526886
 0.01 463104 462100 460096 458091 456086 452078 451073 448069
      446065 442063 435066 429072 437076 452085 451088 449089
      444088 435085 432086 428084 424084 423088 424098 425102
      422102 421107 425108 428105 434105 442109 445111 449109
      451106 456106 460106 463104
 0.01 445041 445038 443036 441035 440035 438035 438038 439040
      440041 441043 443043 445041 445041
 0.01 421060 419054 415050 411047 409047 399045 392043 387041
      384038 373032 366032 361034 354036 351037 348041 346044
      342044 338046 337051 337056 340058 342061 341064 336068
      330069 324073 315073 312079 310083 307084 305083 302078
      296073 290071 285068 280065 270064 265063 262061 259059
      255059 252060 250061 247064 248066 262089 267093 269096
      274098 281101 288102 296104 302108 306112 310119 315120
      322124 326129 329131 333132 335132 334129 332122 330115
      333114 336115 343129 350139 357137 359136 360134 355118
      352111 351106 351103 354103 357103 361105 364106 366104
      362096 367093 363088 361084 362080 366079 369082 373090
      375098 376101 378100 380097 381092 381087 383084 387077
      391070 394067 399069 401070 404068 409066 416062 421060
 0.01 323163 324158 322158 319157 316155 314154 310153 308151
      305150 303150 304153 306155 308156 311158 313159 316160
      320160 322162 323163
 0.01 334058 334056 334053 332053 331053 329052 327052 327053
      326055 326057 326059 328059 329059 330060 332060 334058
      334058
 0.25 512874 509870 506870 501874 497878 495886 493892 495898
      497900 500900 505895 507890 507885 509883 512877 512874
 0.25 480693 479685 477679 473666 473658 472653 469647 464644
      451644 441648 419651 407654 402657 398659 394664 392668
      387672 380674 375676 369680 361689 354698 348705 337722
      326741 315761 305781 301791 297800 295811 292817 288821
      285825 282831 280845 278857 280869 284893 285908 288913
      292917 294930 296937 296945 294952 295956 299955 301950
      303939 304925 306897 307884 307877 309870 311864 313858
      316843 319820 320814 322808 329800 335790 341777 345769
      348763 349758 354749 359741 371722 377714 382703 387691
      391686 393684 396684 404687 408690 410694 413700 415705
      417714 418724 420732 423739 425743 425748 426757 431767
      432773 432781 432788 437787 441785 448783 459781 464778
      467772 470757 473743 476729 477717 478703 480693
 0.25 448221 447218 444217 440217 438217 437215 433215 432217
      431219 429221 430223 434223 436222 439222 443223 445222
      448221
 0.25 462925 463920 462916 458912 448906 437901 434899 433896
      430890 427885 424878 421872 417867 412863 408861 404860
      400860 394864 391868 387874 377877 374882 372888 371892
      372897 375902 378918 383931 384934 386934 390929 394924
      400926 406937 410938 415933 419930 426929 442930 454931
      460929 462925
 0.25 373066 373065 372064 371063 370061 369061 368061 366060
      365061 365063 365065 366066 368066 369067 371067 373067
      373066
 0.25 372053 374051 372050 370050 369050 368050 367051 365051
      363051 363052 365053 367053 368053 370053 372053 372053
 0.25 364067 364066 364065 362064 361063 359064 358065 357066
      356067 356069 357069 358070 360070 362070 363070 364068
      364067
 0.25 351082 347076 339076 332077 329079 328083 331090 333097
      337104 341109 343108 345105 345098 346093 345090 344087
      347085 351082
 0.25 293086 293082 290079 285076 278073 270071 262068 259066
      255067 254069 256072 261076 268081 273084 280088 289089
      293086
 0.50 471696 471685 469677 468668 466660 463652 461650 457650
      451651 443654 436656 428657 421657 413659 408663 404669
      404673 405677 410683 416695 418703 420714 424720 428724
      434725 440723 444726 442732 439738 436746 434751 433760
      434764 437767 442769 449768 456766 460760 463754 466748
      468740 469722 471696
 0.50 457923 452916 445911 436907 429902 426898 422895 419891
      418884 416879 416876 415871 412867 408866 405868 402871
      403876 402882 400886 396895 391897 388901 386906 386909
      387913 395912 403915 411921 415922 419921 424921 428922
      438925 447926 453925 457923 457923
 0.50 379691 378688 375689 369693 363696 358701 354706 350711
      343722 329744 317768 312779 309785 306793 306799 310804
      317806 321801 326797 329791 336780 342768 345762 347754
      349749 353742 361732 368721 374709 378700 379691
 0.50 342102 342100 342098 342096 342094 342093 340091 339090
      338091 337092 336093 336095 336096 337097 338100 339102
      341104 342102
 0.50 313828 312824 308824 304825 302823 294824 287828 285831
      284836 284846 284857 286868 287877 290887 291896 293906
      295910 298909 301901 303892 304882 304871 307863 311845
      313828
 0.50 284080 281078 279077 276076 272075 269075 267074 267075
      268077 271079 274081 275082 279083 282082 284080
 1.00 446698 446692 445686 441677 441671 438668 432666 426670
      422672 421674 424684 427693 427698 425703 424706 426710
      431711 435709 441705 444702 446698 446698
 1.00 449748 448747 446747 445749 444752 444754 445755 447754
      448753 448751 448749 449748
 1.00 357730 354727 352729 345733 335745 330759 323771 317785
      316788 317793 322792 330779 337767 339759 340750 342743
      348738 357730
 1.00 299861 299853 298844 297836 293834 290837 289845 289852
      289860 290866 293872 295873 297871 299863 299861

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.