Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/0000 UTC THRU AUG 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEAST TO MID-ATL/SOUTHEAST COAST AND GULF COAST

A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS SURGING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WIDESPREAD, TWO PLUMES
OF PWS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES. THESE AIR
MASSES WILL CLASH AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATL REGIONS.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS THRIVING CONVECTION AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING TOWARD COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
ENGLAND/NORTHEAST AND MID-ATL BEFORE PRESSING OFFSHORE. HEAVY
RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR RATHER HIGH FROM MAINE TO EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST TO COASTAL NC. WPC GENERALLY
USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE, THESE AREAL AVGS COULD BE BYPASSED. ALSO, THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SURGE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THIS IS WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND PULSE TYPE HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH MORE SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF THE FL PENINSULA.

OH VALLEY INTO MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST. THIS FEATURE NOW NEAR THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. DESPITE NOT HAVING A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE CONTENT
TO WORK WITH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING FROM IN/OH/WESTERN PA BACK INTO THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH OR THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS
FROM THE HI-RES PACKAGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ON THE EXACT ORIENTATION
AND LOCALE OF THE POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS. WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A 5 WAY BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HI-RES NAM
CONEST/ARW AND NMMB FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

NEW MEXICO

A SMALL SCALE VORT MAX WITH A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
REACH SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS
COULD BE THE START OF A MULTI-DAY RETURN OF INCREASING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 536209 538195 537185 530172 521159 516153 511153 505147
      504149 505153 509160 512162 514166 512172 509170 507169
      505171 504178 505183 505187 509189 513196 516203 529211
      531213 534212 536209
 0.01 517265 517260 515255 512253 511249 510243 508238 503231
      501221 499214 494211 492215 484213 479212 475212 469212
      462218 462223 464224 469223 474225 477225 481224 484223
      489225 493232 495236 497242 501247 509263 515268 517265
 0.01 530790 530782 529776 528768 526761 523755 520751 520745
      521737 521733 519728 513717 510711 508705 503694 499683
      496673 493663 488654 482647 477638 471637 463638 452640
      443639 438638 437641 430650 399679 386691 376702 370709
      365717 355730 344745 340753 334762 327768 324773 321776
      317780 309786 293798 273793 251793 238806 237806 235812
      236818 238822 243823 254821 263826 266827 264828 263832
      270838 273842 275846 277857 277860 279864 281888 282899
      286906 291922 295931 299935 297939 297947 294951 290953
      288958 306954 312954 316956 320956 325956 330956 333953
      337950 341952 344954 342958 338962 333961 330960 329963
      328967 329970 331975 330977 327977 321981 317984 318987
      322989 324995 324003 327002 333995 339995 342991 343983
      343980 344976 346978 349978 354978 356981 356984 351985
      350987 351993 353002 350006 345008 343011 344015 349016
      348019 343025 335038 334043 337046 344040 346039 347041
      347045 345050 341054 338055 332054 326046 327042 328039
      324037 322033 316032 298027 294024 289023 283023 279020
      269018 263014 258016 257027 259035 252041 249044 248049
      247057 248062 249070 252075 257082 259086 263089 270095
      274102 282107 290106 298103 314100 318099 320097 322094
      326092 330092 334089 338087 340090 338093 340096 342090
      343083 351075 345074 344072 347070 355065 358067 362065
      363056 365053 368051 368041 374036 376032 379030 384029
      385034 386045 385052 382050 379050 378052 379058 375060
      375066 373075 374080 377082 381079 383072 386069 399074
      401074 399069 398067 399064 403063 405057 400050 397047
      394042 394037 398037 400032 402031 404032 407034 410031
      415023 418020 421023
 0.01 421023 424027 428031 436038 440036 437033 433029 430023
      428017 427013 430011 433009 434004 429996 425989 421986
      415986 410988 409990 407989 403984 400983 396986 394992
      391003 388006 388011 388016 386018 382022 380023 377023
      372023 364028 359030 355034 350037 349034 350030 355028
      358024 359018 360012 364000 368992 371990 373985 387968
      389963 390956 395953 398952 400949 403938 405933 407935
      416952 417960 421963 424962 428959 430957 432957 436961
      444958 447961 449962 452962 461958 470955 476952 477948
      479949 479943 479940 482937 484937 484933 484923 478913
      474903 473897 471898 458913 456915 454913 451907 448903
      447894 446886 443880 442871 439867 433861 431859 431852
      431837 432826 432808 432804 429798 433793 434786 436780
      439775 441773 442777 440783 440788 440796 438807 438814
      440815 446814 449818 449821 455821 461822 472844 477855
      480862 486864 489869 488876 488881 495886 497884 500883
      503878 506874 507867 508858 512854 516853 519850 525838
      531819 530801 530793 530790
 0.01 503273 503267 501261 500258 497253 495249 491247 490251
      492256 494260 496265 499268 501273 503273
 0.01 479937 477935 477934 476933 475934 474937 476938 477938
      479937
 0.01 473942 473935 471930 469927 465923 464921 462922 460925
      457928 454932 454940 455943 457943 461945 465944 469942
      472942 473942
 0.01 468885 468879 467876 466863 467853 465849 463848 460855
      453859 446860 446872 451878 458880 462881 464883 466886
      468885
 0.01 448077 448073 446072 445070 442067 440067 438067 436069
      436071 438071 440070 441072 443072 444075 446077 448077
 0.01 444930 443921 440911 437904 433897 427893 424896 423900
      423912 425921 430926 433925 436923 440927 442930 444930
 0.01 398231 398229 397229 396228 395228 394229 393230 393231
      395232 397232 398231
 0.01 408117 410102 409098 406095 405100 401104 397101 393101
      395104 394107 392108 388102 385099 382103 383106 386109
      380116 377123 374128 375133 375139 377142 381152 383161
      384166 384170 385172 387175 391174 394169 397166 400164
      399159 397154 399151 402151 403149 402144 404139 403133
      406123 408117
 0.01 396205 394202 391199 387194 384188 379182 376179 373179
      370182 367181 359183 359185 362187 369191 374195 380201
      383203 387204 396206 396205
 0.01 399134 399132 399129 400127 400125 399122 397120 395120
      393121 392121 391123 390125 391127 393128 394130 394131
      394133 394135 395137 397136 397135 399134
 0.01 397770 394768 391769 388775 381780 378785 373791 372796
      374801 377802 381800 386795 391791 394788 395784 396780
      396775 397770
 0.01 382818 380812 377815 370820 365825 360832 357839 354841
      350846 347846 352839 355832 356829 356826 358823 360820
      361816 364814 368813 371810 372807 371805 367803 364807
      359812 356817 353821 349823 347822 348816 347810 346806
      340802 335804 332807 325812 317824 313831 311835 311841
      308858 312866 314869 312873 312878 313880 321877 349862
      355857 361851 368847 371840 382818
 0.01 375884 375882 375880 375878 375875 373873 371871 371873
      370876 370878 368880 368882 367885 366887 367889 369889
      370888 372888 374887 374886 375884
 0.01 364896 365894 363892 362894 360896 362897 364897 364896
 0.01 358874 357872 355871 354871 352871 350871 348873 347875
      348877 350879 352878 354878 356878 357876 358874
 0.01 349969 349967 348966 346967 345969 344969 343971 343973
      344976 346974 348971 349969
 0.25 522808 521802 519798 517797 514798 511796 508798 505803
      501809 497819 496832 498840 501840 506834 512826 516818
      521814 522808
 0.25 507737 506723 506718 504712 499706 493706 484709 476709
      474710 473714 475722 474727 471729 466734 463741 462747
      463753 465757 468760 475759 479758 482760 486767 488770
      491770 498767 502760 505753 506743 507737
 0.25 469668 467661 464655 459650 454648 449647 445648 440650
      434654 430658 426663 418674 412681 405691 398702 390713
      384720 375727 364735 355743 350752 345763 342768 339773
      333785 331789 330794 329798 331801 334798 338793 344790
      346789 348792 353790 356795 357799 359799 364796 365791
      367786 371780 375774 381771 385768 388764 390759 393754
      413738 417728 423725 426721 433718 437714 442709 444707
      447707 445711 445718 445726 447726 447721 450714 451711
      452709 455709 459709 464706 464699 469695 470693 468691
      470689 469681 469668
 0.25 446741 446740 445739 444739 442739 440740 440743 441743
      442745 443745 445746 446744 446741
 0.25 452949 448945 443942 437941 430940 425938 421934 419936
      419940 423944 427947 431949 437949 442947 447949 452949
 0.25 436744 435741 433740 432742 430744 430745 429746 427748
      426750 426751 426753 426754 428754 430752 431750 432749
      433749 434747 435746 436745 436744
 0.25 427774 426772 423772 420772 415770 412772 411775 407783
      401790 394799 393806 394815 392824 386825 382829 385831
      388830 393828 398829 406826 411828 413833 414837 411842
      411849 413854 414862 413867 411877 401899 398912 396913
      392911 389905 384903 382905 381908 382914 377918 371924
      370931 372937 376941 381943 386944 392944 393939 392933
      393927 394924 397924 402925 403919 406906 411899 415895
      417890 420876 422865 423859 421853 417841 419827 419813
      421801 423784 427774
 0.25 421999 420998 420996 419995 417994 415995 414996 413996
      412998 412000 411001 411002 413003 415003 417003 418002
      420001 420000 421999
 0.25 407017 407014 406013 404012 402013 402014 402016 404018
      406018 407017
 0.25 371956 369950 367945 365939 364934 360923 361918 357916
      346919 345925 344930 346935 350938 355940 356945 354950
      350953 348956 350959 355958 364958 368959 371956
 0.25 359045 358044 356043 355043 354044 354046 355047 356047
      357047 358046 359045
 0.25 344915 344914 343912 342912 341911 339911 337911 335912
      335913 337914 338915 339915 341916 342917 343917 344916
      344915
 0.25 324894 322883 318885 315890 312894 309894 304891 302895
      299900 295898 292910 293914 295916 299917 304916 308916
      313919 317920 319920 321916 319909 320901 322898 324894
 0.25 317815 314809 312807 309807 293811 289809 281807 276804
      273805 271807 268814 265816 263816 263813 265810 266808
      263807 256805 253803 254799 251799 247804 247811 254814
      257815 259818 261820 264821 272820 280818 285816 290819
      289825 286827 281828 277832 281838 283842 283846 284852
      285856 287873 292879 295880 297876 299861 299851 303844
      307831 312820 317815
 0.25 313079 312071 312064 309060 307059 299057 290056 285054
      272049 264049 260053 258061 259067 265079 269085 273088
      279092 285094 292093 298091 302091 304089 309085 313079
 0.25 311930 310928 308928 306927 306928 305930 306931 308932
      310931 311930
 0.25 307875 308873 308871 306870 306871 305873 305874 304876
      305877 307877 307875
 0.25 261799 259799 258799 259799 261799 261799
 0.50 498734 499729 498724 496721 493721 491723 490726 489729
      488733 488736 490739 492741 493741 495740 498737 498734
 0.50 480741 480739 480736 479736 478736 476736 475738 473740
      472743 470745 469746 468746 469748 471748 472749 473748
      474747 475746 477745 478744 479744 480742 480741
 0.50 462671 460664 458659 453655 445654 437659 430664 426669
      415683 411690 408698 405708 404711 406717 410724 412725
      416723 426710 429708 434706 438705 441701 453691 460676
      462671
 0.50 446945 445944 443944 442945 443946 445946 446945
 0.50 435947 433945 431944 430943 428945 430946 430947 431948
      433949 435947
 0.50 419792 419788 415786 407789 402793 397799 396804 396809
      398815 400818 405811 407808 408806 410806 412810 413814
      416813 417809 418802 419792
 0.50 418999 417997 415997 414998 415001 417000 418999
 0.50 412894 411893 410892 408893 406894 405896 404896 403899
      403900 402901 402903 403905 404903 405903 406901 408899
      409898 410897 411896 411894 412894
 0.50 394750 390749 387752 383752 381748 378747 376749 374752
      373756 372760 374763 377764 380766 385766 387763 389758
      391753 394750 394750
 0.50 395920 395917 393917 389918 386921 381922 378925 375929
      375934 377937 380935 383931 386927 388924 392922 395920
 0.50 379737 378736 376737 374737 373738 373740 372740 371741
      369742 369741 368741 367741 366743 365744 366746 368746
      370744 372744 373743 375742 377740 378739 378738 379737
 0.50 374769 372766 369766 365764 365760 366755 363749 359752
      353760 347762 346767 342777 341783 344785 348784 351780
      353774 356770 363763 365766 363769 367771 368774 371773
      374769
 0.50 364780 364776 363771 361771 360774 359777 358781 358784
      358788 358792 359795 361797 362794 362790 362787 363782
      364780
 0.50 314815 308816 303819 301820 300824 296826 290829 284830
      283834 284837 286842 289848 289855 289863 290870 293875
      296872 297857 295850 296845 297840 299839 302835 307824
      310818 314815
 0.50 318915 317913 316911 315909 313908 312909 312911 313913
      314913 315915 316915 317916 318915
 0.50 305083 305070 307064 303062 292060 282059 272055 265055
      263059 263063 265068 269077 272081 275085 280088 286088
      297088 302086 305083
 0.50 298819 299817 298815 297815 296817 296818 295820 296821
      298820 298819
 0.50 290812 287810 282809 279809 277811 275809 273808 271810
      269813 267816 270819 275818 277814 282814 288814 290812
 0.50 259811 259809 258809 256808 254808 253809 252810 253810
      254812 255812 257813 258812 259811
 1.00 454666 451661 446661 436666 431670 428674 421682 416691
      416705 417709 420708 424704 431697 436693 441693 447684
      452674 454666
 1.00 386760 386758 384759 383761 383763 385764 385763 386761
      386760
 1.00 362758 360756 359757 357758 357759 356761 356762 354764
      356764 358764 358763 359762 360760 361760 362758
 1.00 352766 352764 350763 349765 349766 348767 347769 347772
      346773 346774 344775 344777 344779 345780 347780 347781
      347780 348780 350778 351775 351773 350771 351769 351768
      352766
 1.00 294079 294074 292071 289070 284070 280069 275069 273072
      274075 277078 281080 285081 290082 294080 294079
 1.00 295838 296836 295835 295834 293834 292835 292836 290837
      289837 290837 292837 292839 294839 295839 295838
 1.00 292066 291066 289066 291068 292066
 1.00 294859 294857 293855 293854 292855 292858 292860 293861
      294859
 1.50 447675 446669 443667 435671 430676 425681 421687 420692
      420697 421703 424701 428695 433689 437687 439688 443686
      444683 447675
 1.50 350776 348775 346776 345776 346778 347778 348777 350776
 2.00 443679 444673 442672 437674 432678 428683 425686 422692
      422697 424696 427692 430686 435682 438680 442682 443679

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