Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 18/0000 UTC THRU AUG 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE
APPALACHIANS...

A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH AIRMASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES
AROUND 2.00 INCHES...WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN OH VALLEY.  A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABALE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO POSSIBILY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
TN VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
INSTABILITY...AND THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AR/WRN TN WHERE THE LACK OF
CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO THE BEST RAFL
DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A VORT MAX
SPUN UP BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS WERE A
BIT EAST/FAST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ENSEMBLES.  THIS WAS CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MUCAPES.
MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2.5 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER AS NOTED BY THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST
NORTH OF THE MT-CANADIAN BORDER WILL SLOWLY PIVOT E-SE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT PRE-TROUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE
REGION...MID LEVEL TROWAL...AND AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE PCPN MAX MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF SD/NRN NEBRASKA WAS TIED WITH A PV CENTER MOVING EAST...WHICH
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREED WOULD BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS
EVENING ONCE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATES.  CONSEQUENTLY WE ONCE
AGAIN OPTED FOR A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AREAL-AVERAGE QPFS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE .25 TO .50 RANGE.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DRAPED
IN A SW-NE FASHION ACROSS TX SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TROUGH HAS BECOME GENERALLY ALWILL ALIGN ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE WITH PWATS OF
1.5-2.0 INCHES AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY THAT LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING..
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN .25 TO .50 INCH...HOWEVER AS PER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THE AMOUNTS AS
ISOLATED TOTALS ABOVE 2 INCHES WERE NOTED BY SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 525169 523162 519157 513146 509141 504139 497137 494132
      491132 489134 489139 493144 497149 496159 497167 499172
      499181 506182 507180 509180 513181 517175 519170 525169
 0.01 526999 526989 523982 522970 521962 519954 516947 511942
      505939 502938 501934 498925 494908 492901 495894 498886
      498873 497868 496863 492858 483851 480844 479839 478837
      473832 470830 465831 461836 457842 451853 447860 443866
      437879 424904 415914 410919 407924 407930 408933 405939
      406946 407949 405951 402951 400954 398961 398966 400969
      404975 409980 412986 418999 433022 438027 444029 450027
      454023 463016 465014 466017 464021 462025 462030 463034
      465036 469041 479049 483052 491054 494053 496049 497045
      496041 494031 492024 492012 493008 495007 503008 509010
      516011 518012 521010 524005 526999
 0.01 494202 495199 494198 493197 493196 491195 489195 488196
      486197 485199 485200 486202 487203 488204 490204 492204
      494203 494202
 0.01 486666 485658 482649 479642 476639 471636 466636 461639
      457642 452647 449652 445658 443664 442667 443672 446678
      445681 446685 450689 454691 456695 454698 451704 447708
      440718 437724 437727 438729 448734 444747 450746 454743
      459739 462734 466730 470726 478717 482711 484705 486699
      486691 485689 484685 485678 486666
 0.01 486095 486093 486092 485090 484089 483089 481088 480087
      479087 478089 478092 479094 479095 480097 480099 480100
      482100 484098 486096 486095
 0.01 474094 475091 474090 473088 471087 470085 469085 468084
      466084 466085 465087 465090 466090 467092 467093 469093
      471094 472094 474094 474094
 0.01 462136 461104 461101 460098 456092 453087 453081 452078
      448073 447070 444069 439070 442076 446080 449083 450086
      445090 441091 438088 432087 428089 427094 425098 423102
      421105 421109 423116 423126 421129 420133 418136 418141
      417149 420163 430169 433169 431166 428160 426153 425144
      425139 424136 425127 427120 432115 435109 436102 435097
      439096 442098 442101 444104 446105 449107 450111 449121
      449125 452129 451138 449141 449146 447148 446154 449160
      450166 450175 447182 443187 435193 428208 426215 423216
      420215 417215 416218 412225 409231 409235 412237 420239
      425236 433228 445225 449222 445217 442212 440208 442205
      444197 447193 451186 453184 454180 455169 456160 455157
      455152 456148 458145 462136
 0.01 416055 386052 375050 372046 371042 372036 377035 383036
      387038 392039 395036 396032 397025 397018 395013 389003
      387999 387992 388980 391969 393964 393956 393948 392943
      390939 387939 382949 378956 373963 370972 369984 369990
      367995 365000 362005 360009 359013 354023 347028 343029
      340032 341037 344041 348044 353044 356041 360039 364039
      364042 362045 355053 351055 347055 342056 338054 334051
      329050 326048 324044 324040 323037 323035 320035 316037
      314040 312039 312035 312029 314025 320019 324009 326004
      328001 333992 334986 333984 331983 324983 321981 323979
      328970 332961 336951 337947 341944 352934 355930 357926
      360915 363905 364900 365896 366894 371892 372890 375891
      378896 381900 387902 391899 394895 396891 397885 397881
      395876 393870 393863 397852 397848 402846 407838 410829
      410815 408802 405792 401782 397774 394770 390768 387765
      383763 374758 369752 366748 362746 358748 354748 349747
      345748 343752 344760 346763 348765 347767 343776 337782
      331787 324792 317798 312806 306814 302816 294816 292816
      288820 289830 290837 291841 292866 290876 287887 285891
      285898 284902 285906 286917 286923 290925 293923 295919
      298921 299928 299935 298941 294948 288956 282963 275968
      269975 266976 262980 272981 278981 282980 286979 291976
      298970 301967 303962 306953 308949 309951 309963 312973
      313979 313986 316989 311992 300008 297010 293011 282011
      279009 276005 273002 267002 255000 246998 235997 234001
      236004 243008 246016 248020 251023 259027 270040 261043
      257043 253042 244037 238037 235038 232041 230045 228050
      229055 230060 233064 237072 242078 244082 248085 261095
      273106 278108 282111 287117 290121 293124 298126 305128
      313131 322134 325137 326143 327148 330151 332153 333147
      338139
 0.01 338139 336135 337131 336126 334122 332117 336117 338119
      338122 339128 341134 344137 353141 354146 358150 360154
      360159 366160 368156 368151 366147 363144 363141 365139
      373132 377130 380127 382122 381120 379119 375121 372122
      370120 367116 361114 358111 352105 349101 346096 344087
      340077 337075 331074 331070 335065 344063 353061 356061
      357064 357069 360069 362065 365063 368064 372068 374080
      375082 380081 382076 383067 380064 377062 371061 368059
      370055 380056 390054 391058 390062 389066 395066 398069
      397071 401072 403069 397061 399058 401058 407059 411060
      413058 416055
 0.01 322065 321063 319063 317063 316065 317066 319067 320067
      322065
 0.01 286812 286807 284806 276804 269803 263800 258800 254801
      249804 248794 246791 243790 240797 239803 238813 239821
      243825 247825 248822 250814 252812 255813 260816 265821
      267825 269827 274826 276824 281820 285814 286812
 0.25 510978 507970 502962 499952 494944 487929 482918 481907
      482895 480886 477881 473879 466877 462875 458876 452881
      447889 441892 437895 434899 432907 432923 431928 430933
      424938 421941 420945 423954 417961 416964 416968 416976
      420986 424993 429000 434007 440014 443015 446014 459005
      464998 471994 487995 495995 499997 503997 507993 507987
      510978
 0.25 466665 465660 464655 463653 461651 458652 457652 454656
      453659 452661 453665 455668 457668 461667 464667 466665
 0.25 479972 479966 474965 467962 459958 455956 450956 447959
      446964 445968 447971 448976 449983 450988 453992 458992
      462989 467983 473977 479972
 0.25 400800 400795 398791 395789 386786 377783 373780 370775
      368769 365764 363763 361765 359769 355779 354784 355790
      357796 357802 353812 351824 349829 346833 344838 343844
      338852 335864 331874 330880 329886 326896 327910 324919
      319930 317941 316957 316960 317963 322962 332945 339936
      343928 345922 348917 354910 359900 362890 366878 371871
      375866 381864 384862 386856 389844 392833 392826 392819
      391814 392809 397805 400800
 0.25 358131 359127 358125 357121 357118 354116 351115 349119
      347121 345122 344124 346127 349128 353128 355129 358131
      358131
 0.25 347114 346110 344107 343102 342096 340092 335091 335095
      334101 334103 337107 341109 344111 347114 347114
 0.25 330103 328098 323096 315087 307079 303076 300070 298065
      292062 283061 279057 274054 262055 239048 237050 236053
      238059 240065 243069 250078 259085 267092 275100 284106
      289110 295111 300116 304117 316119 321118 324113 327106
      330103
 0.25 321909 321902 321896 320890 317890 315892 312896 311902
      311907 312913 313918 315920 319917 320913 321909
 0.25 303880 303878 302876 301874 301872 299873 299874 299876
      299878 298880 298882 299884 300885 302885 302884 303882
      303881 303880
 0.25 291039 290037 288036 286035 284035 282036 282039 281041
      282043 284044 285044 287044 288043 289043 291041 291040
      291039
 0.25 291023 292020 290019 289020 289021 288022 288024 290024
      291023
 0.25 265811 264809 263809 262808 260807 259807 258806 256807
      255808 256809 257809 258810 260810 261811 262812 264812
      265811
 0.50 502970 488947 482935 478931 472929 468929 466926 466921
      465918 466911 469905 470902 469899 465896 458894 453894
      446894 440896 438898 436902 436909 440922 441932 441937
      438940 426942 426945 428947 431954 434956 437955 441951
      445945 449942 454942 457944 458947 462952 467956 475956
      480957 489966 495973 499972 502970
 0.50 448005 448999 446995 444990 442985 442978 440973 436964
      434961 430961 422964 420968 421975 424983 429992 432000
      437007 441009 446010 448005
 0.50 395796 392792 389791 383791 379790 375789 369788 363784
      360785 359788 361796 360803 364816 356826 352833 349838
      348847 346855 343862 340867 337875 335882 333889 334896
      335905 337908 340909 347910 352906 358893 363879 366871
      369866 374861 380857 383854 384851 385843 387835 388826
      387814 389806 395796
 0.50 355122 356120 354118 352119 352121 351124 352124 353124
      354124 355122
 0.50 340098 340097 339095 338094 336094 336095 336096 337097
      338099 340099 340098
 0.50 338930 338921 334919 332921 330924 327928 325934 323939
      321945 321949 323952 325949 329945 332941 336936 338930
 0.50 321115 322108 322101 315094 309089 301084 293079 290075
      288070 280065 277062 274059 256061 258069 256071 253070
      251070 250073 263084 270090 278096 286099 293106 303109
      310115 317117 321115
 1.00 470944 469942 467942 467944 467945 469945 470944
 1.00 459910 457908 455906 453905 450904 448904 445903 443905
      441904 441906 443907 445908 448909 452910 453913 455914
      457912 459910
 1.00 443000 443999 442997 441995 440993 439992 438992 436991
      435992 435995 436997 438999 438000 439000 441001 443001
      443000
 1.00 435978 435976 435974 434973 433971 433970 431969 430968
      428967 426968 426969 426971 426973 426974 426975 427978
      428978 429980 430980 431981 432980 433980 435980 435978
 1.00 384832 383824 382819 380814 381809 377810 374813 373819
      370824 366825 362828 357835 354844 351855 343875 340884
      340889 342895 343900 346902 353896 355891 357887 360876
      363866 368858 380843 382837 384832
 1.00 319112 318111 318110 318108 318106 317104 317103 316103
      314102 312102 310101 308101 307102 306102 306103 307104
      308106 310108 310109 311110 312111 313112 315113 316114
      318113 319112
 1.50 381827 381826 380826 379828 378829 378830 378832 377834
      377835 377837 378837 379837 380834 381832 381830 381829
      381827
 1.50 367847 366842 363840 359843 358847 355856 351866 349875
      348879 345882 343886 346886 349882 352879 354877 356872
      360863 364855 367847

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