Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 211838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 22/0000 UTC THRU APR 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST STATES NEWD INTO THE GT LAKES...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT H5 WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF SRN/CNTL PLAINS UPR TROF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS WELL AS A SEPARATE NRN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING EWD ACRS SRN
CANADA TOWARD THE NRN GT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALL MODELS SHOW NRN STREAM SYSTEM GAINING A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE
WITH TIME WHILE SRN STREAM S/WV IS FCST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME IN
FAVOR OF THE STGR NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  RATHER WIDESPREAD..SOMEWHAT
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED AHEAD OF
BOTH SYSTEMS AS WEAK UPR FORCING ACTS UPON SRLY RETURN MSTR AND
RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER
WITH REGARD TO THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...THE UPPER FORCING IS
WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKING FLOW.

MODEL QPF REMAINS LIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE GULF INFLOW.  WITH THE NUMBER OF
NEGATIVES INVOLVED...FELT LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GENL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT MOST AREAL AVG PCPN AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY MDT. A COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM
CONEST AND THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IN NORTHEAST TX OR SOUTHEAST
OK THIS EVENING...BUT OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A TONED
DOWN VERSION OF THOSE TWO MODELS GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD IN PLACEMENT
AND AMOUNT.

FARTHER N...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF DVLPG AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCD WITH
NRN STREAM S/WV THAT HAS WEAK INSTABILITY AND DECENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT ACRS PARTS OF THE SRN GT LAKES
REGION..WHERE HAVE A STRIPE OF .25 TO .50 INCH RAINS.

...NRN/CNTL PACIFIC COASTS...

AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE CNTL/NRN PAC
COASTAL REGION BY TUES MRNG WITH MODELS GENLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE. BACKING OF
MID/UPR FLOW THRU THE PD AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PCPN
FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NRN CA INTO THE NRN SIERRA AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES OF WA/OREGON.  THIS WILL BE WHERE THE
BEST BEST HEIGHT FALLS..7H UVVS..AND AXIS OF HIER PWS..SUGGESTS
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DVLPG.

THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SO WE OPTED TO
GIVE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE RUNS MORE WEIGHT HERE.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 533222 535207 533195 531181 527171 524163 521154 517148
      510141 504135 500128 499121 496115 491108 484094 482089
      479086 474085 471088 466092 457090 451089 447087 441086
      438087 434088 432087 428084 425084 423086 424091 427098
      421105 417108 413106 410096 408094 406095 405099 402108
      398113 400120 402124 403130 399132 396135 393140 389141
      387143 389148 388153 386158 384168 388177 389181 391183
      400186 402187 403190 403195 399196 395197 389195 385192
      376187 374185 369184 362187 363191 366193 371198 376206
      381213 373220 373225 374230 365240 356254 355261 358262
      364264 368263 384257 389257 394259 402261 419266 424273
      427276 431275 436277 441276 445275 448273 455269 462266
      474260 487252 495259 499261 505263 516262 520256 524249
      530234 531225 533222
 0.01 529838 526819 522802 519791 519778 518773 515775 509778
      499784 497784 496779 498771 502744 504726 502714 500707
      499701 498698 497686 495674 494664 490651 486645 484641
      482641 476641 475646 472651 471657 467652 465656 459669
      456675 456686 448698 441706 432715 415731 406740 401744
      395747 381752 375757 368761 360767 351775 346778 342782
      336791 328800 324805 321811 317826 313841 311847 310853
      308864 306880 303893 297921 295930 295939 294943 295945
      297953 295967 291980 290996 288001 287006 290013 293017
      302008 313001 316000 318996 321990 323984 326980 333968
      339958 345952 349947 352946 354949 356951 357956 360961
      369953 374949 379943 386934 388929 391925 398915 403903
      407897 411893 420884 425879 432877 445870 460854 468844
      472842 475845 478852 483856 487859 489862 489865 489871
      488875 488888 488891 491892 499891 508885 517877 522868
      525862 526854 529838
 0.01 443050 443045 442041 440038 437037 426041 418041 413045
      408049 406051 402051 390055 387050 385045 378046 369045
      358049 356055 357058 360058 372056 376057 378059 380063
      377066 372063 368063 367066 372069 374072 374077 373084
      379085 386086 388082 391081 397080 399078 400074 398065
      400063 402063 406065 409056 421052 426055 430059 435059
      439057 443050
 0.01 266003 265997 262993 253988 246984 244989 242992 234997
      233001 234004 238007 247011 250022 250026 251027 254024
      256012 258006 262003 266003
 0.25 519199 519194 518190 513184 511181 509175 503169 497169
      491167 484166 480163 471150 466144 463136 471137 475138
      479137 481136 480133 474129 472128 469130 466130 462129
      459127 458122 453120 450122 447128 445133 441134 436138
      434140 433144 431154 432159 435162 443165 447167 449171
      451178 453186 466187 471181 473181 474185 476196 475199
      472201 461207 454208 449207 425202 421202 419203 415209
      410211 404210 388202 385200 383202 387209 405229 400234
      398238 398243 403250 412254 420254 426254 432253 438250
      465243 471241 472236 474237 476236 479226 481224 485225
      493226 497226 500225 502220 506219 508216 507212 502211
      501208 501203 504201 509204 512204 517203 519199
 0.25 513814 513812 513809 513807 512804 511807 510807 511810
      511812 512814 513815 513814
 0.25 490708 489703 487695 484688 482684 478681 475682 472685
      470689 464697 457707 451713 445720 431733 418745 411752
      408757 407764 410775 410782 408786 409789 413792 419794
      423791 431786 432787 430793 431800 432808 431815 430821
      428832 423841 419850 420854 422855 426854 432848 438842
      462812 465802 469790 475770 478759 483748 487739 489729
      490716 490708
 0.25 408873 407868 402869 399871 397874 394879 392883 391888
      392891 394892 397889 400885 402882 405878 407874 408873
 0.25 395810 395804 393801 391797 388797 384800 380805 378811
      374817 366819 361822 351829 349827 348823 348813 347806
      345804 342806 333813 329818 325824 321836 318853 316859
      317862 320864 323864 326863 333859 336855 342852 346851
      350852 355851 357849 360843 362838 367832 373835 373842
      374845 377844 384832 388820 390815 392812 395810
 0.25 343919 342914 339915 333920 330922 327926 323930 319932
      316937 313943 310952 307959 304968 305975 301985 301990
      304993 308984 312977 316971 320964 330953 335945 338939
      343920 343919
 0.25 330917 331913 331908 331904 331900 328900 326902 324904
      323907 322909 320911 319915 319917 320920 323920 324922
      326921 329919 330917
 0.50 504192 502184 499182 496184 488182 485185 484191 486195
      483199 480203 475205 469208 464211 460217 455220 448218
      440218 429218 423221 418227 418223 417218 414219 413222
      412230 408236 406239 406243 410247 417249 424249 429247
      433243 454240 457239 459236 463226 466222 470217 482214
      487211 490206 492197 493191 495190 498192 501193 504192
 0.50 483710 481705 476702 472703 469707 465711 460715 453723
      446732 444738 444744 442752 441755 442759 447761 450763
      447776 445782 445788 448785 450784 452786 453789 452792
      452799 452805 454803 455800 456790 458778 461775 464770
      472746 476734 480724 483715 483710
 0.50 440149 440148 438148 438150 440150 440149
 0.50 406217 405216 403214 402213 400212 399211 398210 397209
      395209 393209 392208 390209 391209 393210 394212 394213
      395214 396215 398216 399217 401217 403217 404218 406217
 0.50 334934 332932 328934 326936 325939 323941 322943 321946
      321948 325948 327946 328945 330943 332941 334936 334934

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.