Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210543
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE CHALLENGING THE EDGE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING.  THEREAFTER,
DAYTIME HEATING AND BROAD INFLOW OF 30-40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FROM THE 3000-5000 J/KG SBCAPE UNDER THE CAP TO THE SOUTHWEST (PER
THE 21Z SREF MEAN) SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WI/IL/POSSIBLY EASTERN IA NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
THE NEW COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN IL.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY ACROSS
THE AREA.  FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST A GENERAL MOVEMENT
OF 20 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  UPDATES FOR THE 06Z WPC QPF
INCLUDED CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND GFS-BASED FORWARD PROPAGATION
VECTORS FOR THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MN, AS THE
00Z GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL/NAM HAVE NO HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE
00Z SPCWRF WAS ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM,
SO IT DID NOT APPEAR USEFUL.  THE CLOSEST MATCH TO THE 06Z WPC QPF
IS THE 21Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z NMMB, WHICH ALONG WITH THE 00Z ARW,
HAVE A GRASP ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  PLAN TO HAVE A SEE
TEXT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE IA/WI/IL BORDER TO COVER THIS
SYSTEM`S HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THIS FORECAST.


SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
18Z-00Z PERIOD ONCE INSTABILITY HAS REACHED A CRESCENDO.  CELL
MOTIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW WITH MULTIPLE MERGERS LIKELY
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE 06Z WPC QPF
CONVERGED UPON THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z AND 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS IN THIS
REGION.

ACROSS FL, EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA, MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS IS COMMON IN
JULY.  THE AIR MASS IN PLACE REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CELLS WITH A BETTER FOCUS
ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OR COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. GIVEN
THE HIGH NATURE OF FFG VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY OUTLOOK AREA IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.  THE 06Z WPC
QPF HAS INCREASED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA AND
ATTEMPTED TO MINIMIZE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXCEPT WHERE EASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE GOLD COAST PER CLIMATOLOGY.


SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE ANCHORING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S AND TROUGHING INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND TWO SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR
LATE JULY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS MOVING INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH
THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM AZ/NM UP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHERE LOCAL OROGRAPHICS WILL LEAD TO MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS.
NORMALLY, ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS MODULATED BY DAYTIME HEATING.
 HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
CONVECTION COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT.  CONTINUITY WAS GENERALLY
MAINTAINED IN THIS REGION.  PLAN ON A SEE TEXT FOR THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO DEAL WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ISSUES IN WESTERN CO AND THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 505237 505230 502224 499219 496213 495207 495199 491195
      485192 482191 477192 472195 469200 468208 464211 459214
      454215 450216 444215 441220 442225 453227 463225 468224
      471225 470227 466230 461230 450231 447235 446238 447240
      458241 471243 480244 487233 488230 491231 495234 496237
      499238 504238 505237
 0.01 498149 499139 499131 498123 493122 490127 484130 481132
      477137 480142 483146 486147 488149 494151 498149
 0.01 487709 486699 484688 481680 479675 477674 474671 471670
      470673 465673 463680 461688 459696 456705 448721 440733
      433747 426757 423775 420782 417788 410801 401832 398841
      396852 393859 392864 392870 392888 392897 396904 399912
      403919 409930 415936 418939 424938 426940 424942 423945
      419952 415958 412964 408970 406979 401994 399997 398001
      397005 398008 400013 399018 397020 396024 392029 391034
      392035 373038 364025 359029 353035 349040 346047 342053
      333053 329053 327055 325057 327058 329060 333060 338061
      340064 336069 326070 311068 306068 302069 296072 292073
      289076 284082 277083 270083 271091 271094 274096 285105
      290109 296111 306121 311124 319128 323128 326127 327121
      330117 334118 337121 340127 348137 355140 361139 376137
      380133 384127 391122 398118 401116 406117 408115 410110
      411102 410096 401094 400092 401089 404091 407092 409091
      411088 411083 415078 418074 419070 420065 419061 417053
      420051 421046 418040 443036 436021 437014 439011 441008
      443002 442997 445990 450974 455955 464947 469940 472933
      474927 477919 479910 482897 484887 485877 484855 486851
      485845 484832 480814 477807 474800 470793 472783 477763
      482745 485727 487719 487709
 0.01 428061 429058 428056 427055 425053 425056 423058 423060
      423062 424063 426063 428061 428061
 0.01 432968 432966 433964 431962 430964 430965 429966 428967
      427968 427971 426972 425973 425975 426977 428977 429975
      429974 430973 431971 431970 432968
 0.01 403102 404100 403098 401099 400102 402103 403102
 0.01 372813 371804 368802 363802 360800 355800 349799 346799
      345796 346789 347785 350783 355777 359772 363767 365764
      363760 362756 360752 358750 354750 350750 347753 342760
      335775 332780 329787 321799 318804 314806 307809 303808
      298808 292805 288799 283794 278790 271787 264785 260784
      255785 252787 247788 242792 237796 235800 235804 236814
      237819 238821 240826 243829 249834 258844 264847 270849
      278848 285844 284837 289836 292838 293843 294849 296857
      298864 299874 301879 301884 300888 296891 291897 290908
      292915 293927 297943 305944 309944 312942 323931 335922
      341919 346914 357905 360901 362897 363892 363888 358885
      349885 345886 342883 345875 350870 357866 363862 366856
      368833 370822 372813
 0.01 230983 231994 231999 232003 236008 240010 244010 258003
      264000 268999 270995 272986 270978 268976 267972 269968
      269962 271953 270948 269943 266936 263933 259931 252931
      246937 242942 238950 234956 231963 231965 230983
 0.25 487213 487211 487210 486208 484209 483209 482209 481210
      479210 478210 478213 479214 480214 482215 484215 485215
      487213 487213
 0.25 477235 476232 476235 477235 477235
 0.25 480721 479715 476710 473705 469703 463710 460716 460724
      461731 464737 464741 462748 462754 465759 467763 470762
      472759 474748 469739 475730 478727 480721
 0.25 470858 471853 470850 465846 460844 457842 456839 453831
      450828 442837 437840 432843 422852 413861 410864 403867
      400871 397877 396887 397897 399903 401908 406914 410919
      418926 421927 424926 429928 436938 440941 447943 453942
      456937 459930 462922 464915 465907 467890 467880 466870
      470858
 0.25 463797 463792 459788 454790 451793 447796 446800 447807
      448812 449817 452818 453816 456813 459808 460805 463800
      463797
 0.25 453755 453749 451745 448746 446747 440760 436764 432771
      432779 429786 424790 421797 416811 417818 421813 430802
      438791 444780 450766 453755
 0.25 432002 431997 429994 424994 419994 415991 412989 409991
      408993 409996 413999 418001 422003 422006 421008 423009
      427006 430004 432002
 0.25 403072 402069 403065 404062 402060 400057 396055 393055
      391052 390049 388050 386053 383054 382051 379051 379054
      381056 382061 379062 373061 368059 366061 366064 369066
      371068 373070 374075 372080 373084 375087 378089 383084
      385091 391090 391082 395077 401076 403072
 0.25 388084 389082 389079 389077 390075 388073 387074 386074
      385075 384076 383079 383081 384083 385083 386084 388084
      388084
 0.25 369093 368090 368089 366088 364088 363087 362087 361086
      359087 358089 357091 356093 358094 360094 362094 364094
      365094 367094 369093
 0.25 362065 361063 359064 358065 359066 360067 362065 362065
 0.25 356126 355126 354124 354123 352122 351121 350121 348120
      348121 348123 350125 350126 351126 353127 355127 356126
 0.25 360825 359821 358818 356817 352816 343818 338821 330833
      327838 322839 317838 311838 305842 301847 301852 302857
      308869 311874 313884 312891 311894 307896 302901 300907
      301920 302930 305931 306927 309921 313915 317911 324908
      328904 325904 323900 321891 322883 323875 326868 327859
      331854 339852 343852 347851 350848 354841 357834 360825
 0.25 342098 341096 340094 339095 339098 340098 342098
 0.25 336112 336110 335108 334106 333106 332104 330103 328102
      328103 329105 330107 331109 332110 333111 334112 335113
      336112
 0.25 280825 278815 276812 273808 265805 257803 254801 252802
      252804 254807 252812 255822 254828 257832 264835 269835
      269832 267829 267823 276825 280825
 0.25 256988 256983 253980 252977 252972 250965 246960 242959
      240962 237967 235972 236977 238985 238990 240993 243995
      248994 253992 256988
 0.50 474717 474716 473715 472713 471713 470713 470714 469715
      467717 466719 465720 465722 465725 467727 468727 470726
      471726 471725 473724 473723 474720 474719 474717
 0.50 459866 458861 453860 445857 440858 436861 429867 422872
      411874 405875 402877 399882 398887 400899 405910 408912
      412914 420919 424919 428918 432921 435925 447929 452930
      455926 457920 458913 455900 452889 454878 459867 459866
 0.50 431793 430791 428791 426792 425793 425794 424796 423798
      423799 422801 422802 421804 421806 422807 423806 424805
      425803 425802 426800 427799 428798 429797 430795 430794
      431793
 0.50 393061 393062 393061 399074 399073 399074 399074 383074
382072 382069 381067
      380066 379067 379069 379071 378073 377076 377078 376080
      375082 377083 378083 379081 379080 380078 381076 383074
 0.50 364090 364089 362089 361089 362091 364091 364090
 0.50 357828 357826 356823 354823 353824 352824 351826 349829
      348831 348832 347833 347835 348837 348838 350838 352837
      353836 354835 355833 355832 356830 356829 357828
 0.50 266814 266813 266812 265811 264810 262809 260809 258811
      258813 258814 260815 261815 262816 264816 266815 266814
 1.00 436902 437897 437892 436889 433890 430892 429893 427895
      426900 427902 429905 433906 434907 436904 436902
 1.00 412903 412901 411898 410897 409896 408894 406893 404892
      404894 404896 404898 405899 405901 406903 406904 408905
      410906 411905 412904 412903

$$





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