Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260553
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/1200 UTC THRU AUG 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

ROCKIES & GREAT BASIN
NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE.  IN THE PLAINS, PORTIONS OF
KS/MO/IA/IL COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS AS DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ATTEMPTS TO INTERSECT A FRONTAL TRYING TO
RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  MODEL QPF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, AS SOME
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALLOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO AND IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH WOULD ERODE INSTABILITY WHICH
WOULD OTHERWISE BE AVAILABLE FARTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS WI WHERE THE
WARM FRONT`S 850 HPA SLICE WOULD BE RETURNING NORTH.  USED A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WITH SOME
WEIGHTING TOWARD THE MORE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE IN MO AND IL, WHICH
LED TO LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS WI.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
POCKETS OF 3-5" SCATTERED ACROSS NE, KS, MO, AND IL, THOUGH THERE
IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS WOULD OCCUR.



LOWER MS VALLEY, WESTERN GULF COAST, & FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SURGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES MOVING WEST ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SAME AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FL WITHIN A
REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP A
DECENT RISK OF CONVECTION THERE (OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS)
COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A NOSE OF DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY
SUPPRESSED. USED A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z
WPC QPF CONTINUITY IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 472619 478619 481621 485625 487631 489638 491648 494666
      495681 494687 491690 487688 482692 479692 475690 473688
      473684 472680 470679 465678 459679 449686 440693 439696
      441699 443703 444710 445719 444725 441731 434739 421754
      417752 415746 412741 411732 410725 411720 411713 408716
      402727 400731 396735 393739 389739 386735 380734 377731
      376723 378718 380713 385704 390694 397670 401661 404657
      407656 408654 415652 418651 420654 426662 431663 434668
      439659 444647 449637 453631 459624
 0.01 561996 561986 561982 559980 557979 554979 550980 548980
      548974 549967 550958 551949 553932 552923 552912 552888
      551865 550856 545858 542862 541869 538883 537885 537890
      534899 532905 532910 531915 531926 530931 529936 529941
      528947 528955 526962 526973 520983 518988 515993 508003
      505008 503013 488034 484040 479044 477041 477037 480032
      480022 480014 476002 474995 476989 482979 487973 489967
      489958 487950 484944 481942 477942 475943 470947 463955
      460955 459952 457946 456944 453943 447943 440944 437944
      433942 431937 432930 435916 438907 438897 438888 436880
      431870 428866 423863 414860 407861 403861 402857 399850
      398843 396839 392838 389840 382849 376853 374854 371853
      364846 359835 355832 353828 351828 344835 336843 336850
      335858 334869 332876 329889 322910 317922 313925 310922
      307915 307905 305885 302872 299861 294848 294843 292837
      283832 284825 289821 293817 300815 303812 302802 301794
      298788 295783 290779 279777 269775 264772 260768 261763
      264759 270748 274737 276730 276727 274726 268727 265732
      258736 255734 253730 233739 229743 223745 215751 210756
      209759 211763 216774 220779 224782 235786 241785 247781
      251777 254777 256779 260782 258784 254785 250788 247792
      246796 243797 237801 236806 238810 240810 245813 250814
      250818 246819 244823 246837 248843 252848 255852 256860
      254867 251871 246875 243883 243889 245895 251905 253909
      257914 261919 264925 268939 268943 266949 266958 266966
      270970 277973 289972 294975 299977 306978 312980 319982
      326980 336975 357965 362962 364961 366963 365968 360980
      358987 355991 351997 347002 344007 340013 335016 329018
      327020 325018 324013 322009 318013
 0.01 318013 306026 302028 299031 288035 283036 278033 268026
      260020 258016 254018 254021 257025 264031 267035 270037
      280041 281044 278046 273046 270047 268045 264043 257037
      249036 244037 234051 244066 249076 250079 255083 258086
      264089 274095 280102 286102 292104 306116 312118 319119
      329114 333114 337118 339122 341127 344137 346142 349145
      355151 359154 365155 367153 368149 369146 371145 375143
      379140 383136 386131 393124 397120 401118 410115 415114
      419114 424115 429111 434109 438113 441115 444116 450115
      454115 457109 460109 462112 465115 470114 473110 473103
      470101 459101 456101 452096 449092 444089 441087 438088
      433091 426087 427092 430097 427100 423103 419105 414105
      410095 405095 401091 400084 402079 409078 411078 412073
      416063 419056 422056 425058 438069 446075 451073 455074
      458072 460074 466077 471079 477082 499085 506081 510077
      513074 522073 525071 529066 536058 542047 547036 552024
      556010 561996
 0.01 467893 467888 466883 465881 464876 464871 462868 462864
      462869 462873 461878 461881 461886 461891 463893 463896
      465895 467893
 0.01 382777 382775 379775 377777 376780 375783 376787 375792
      378792 380791 382787 382784 381780 382777
 0.01 341037 335034 331037 328038 324040 319041 315041 311043
      310046 313047 318046 322045 327045 331042 335040 338039
      341037
 0.25 473969 473963 471961 467966 460979 455986 453990 448991
      444992 441994 436998 432004 429006 425004 422002 419001
      410003 403005 399005 397002 396999 397995 399992 404986
      414978 420975 426971 432968 439962 444957 446953 443951
      431955 423956 416956 415952 416948 419937 424920 427901
      427892 426883 422876 412877 406882 400878 396877 393879
      385881 382882 381884 379895 372909 378925 380930 380936
      379946 380964 378974 376985 376994 376004 368015 365023
      363032 364037 368038 378040 387041 393039 401027 408024
      413021 419016 427013 430012 430016 429022 430028 431030
      435032 438031 440029 444023 449017 454013 458005 462986
      473969
 0.25 429716 430711 428707 426706 422707 421709 420714 420716
      421718 421723 423725 426725 428724 429719 429716
 0.25 385118 385117 383117 381116 380117 379118 379119 379120
      381120 383120 383119 385118 385118
 0.25 391052 391050 390049 388048 387048 385048 383048 381048
      379048 378048 377049 376051 376053 375054 375055 375056
      377057 379057 381057 382058 384056 385056 386055 388055
      389054 390053 391052
 0.25 362134 363130 362127 359125 357123 356121 354119 352120
      351124 350128 351131 352133 354135 358137 361136 362134
 0.25 370914 370909 368907 364908 361909 356906 353889 351882
      349875 346877 343882 342888 340896 340904 342912 345917
      346921 345925 343931 340935 333944 323952 319953 315949
      306943 302941 298936 297929 297919 296910 293904 286897
      283892 281886 285883 288881 289877 288871 284866 280861
      278857 274845 272843 271839 268837 266837 265841 266845
      267851 269859 269867 272880 273883 272885 268892 268900
      267907 268914 270919 275930 276937 277947 279953 281958
      286962 291963 297964 302967 310968 314967 317965 323963
      328965 335965 340963 346961 351959 356956 361950 363945
      365938 367925 367916 370914
 0.25 362049 360047 354046 351047 347049 343050 339052 336056
      338058 341058 346058 350057 356057 359054 361051 362049
 0.25 303093 304088 301085 296080 293074 289068 283065 275066
      268064 265061 263058 260052 257049 254048 250048 248051
      250058 251065 253073 257078 263082 271084 277088 279091
      283093 291094 298095 303093
 0.25 277819 275816 271813 267810 265808 261805 259802 255801
      254804 254810 256812 260815 263817 266819 270821 276821
      277819
 0.25 252757 252752 249748 243743 238743 232745 225749 218754
      216758 216761 220770 225777 227779 233779 240775 246769
      249767 251763 252757
 0.50 452008 452005 452003 451001 450001 448001 446001 445002
      444003 443005 443006 442007 441009 441011 441012 442014
      442015 444015 446015 446014 448013 449012 451010 451009
      452008
 0.50 422905 422894 421885 419881 416881 411888 408894 402893
      396889 392890 390895 389912 388924 387932 385948 386958
      385968 382976 382982 384991 381999 378007 375013 374017
      374021 375026 378028 381031 385029 390025 401016 398014
      394014 389010 391000 393991 394982 397974 401967 405959
      411946 414938 417928 421917 422905
 0.50 352947 352944 350943 348943 345945 343946 341947 339950
      338952 339954 341954 343953 346952 348951 351949 352947
 0.50 298954 298948 296943 293935 293929 294924 294919 293914
      291910 288907 283908 279910 276912 277919 280927 283935
      282945 283949 286954 290956 294956 298954
 0.50 285083 286078 285074 282072 278070 274070 270069 265064
      260059 256054 255063 255071 259077 265078 269077 274079
      281081 285083
 0.50 266812 264811 264810 262809 261809 260809 260811 262813
      264812 265813 266813 266812
 0.50 248760 248756 246753 242749 236748 230750 226753 222758
      222762 224769 227774 229775 232776 238773 241768 244764
      248760
 1.00 414917 414910 413904 410907 408912 407917 406922 405926
      405933 407937 410933 411929 412924 414917 414917
 1.00 243758 243754 239751 235751 231754 229757 227761 227765
      228769 231772 236772 237769 239765 242761 243758
 1.50 240757 239754 237753 235754 232756 231758 230760 229765
      231768 233770 234770 236768 237765 238761 239759 240757
 2.00 238757 237756 236756 235756 234757 234758 232760 232762
      233763 233762 234761 236761 237759 238758 238757
$$





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