Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$





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