Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 010753
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 01/1200 UTC THRU JUL 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

INCREASING MONSOONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WED.  GIVEN WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THE FORCING WILL BE LARGELY A RESULT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WITH THE SCALE OF THE CONVECTION LIKELY TOO
SMALL TO RESOLVE BY THE COURSER GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  A
PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE NON-EC SOLNS OVER THE SW AS THE EC
APPEARED TOO DRY AND MISSING PCPN WORKING WWD FROM SW AZ THIS
MRNG.  INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPR HIGH
ALONG WITH LIGHT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW GENLY FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED
GREATER THAN .25 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE MTNS OF CNTL/SRN CO INTO
NRN NM...WHILE FOR MOST AREAS HAVE GENLY FOLLOWED CONTINUITY WITH
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN .10 INCH.


...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / TENNESSEE
VALLEY

THERE CONTINUES TO BE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TSTM CLUSTERS
EARLY THIS AM WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NE...FAR NORTHEAST KS...AND INTO MO EARLY THIS AM AS STGR MSTR
INFLUX WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES POOLS INTO A STATIONARY SURFACE
BNDRY.  THERE IS NOT AS MUCH LATITUDINAL SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WITH THE MAX RAINFALL AXIS...WITH HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE 1-3+ AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
FROM 12Z WED - 12Z THU ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO SE THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN
KY...FAR NORTHEAST AR...AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL TN. MORE SPREAD
WAS NOTED AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE... AND WERE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WPC ONCE AGAIN
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD...WITHOUT CARRYING THE ACTIVITY TOO FAR INTO THE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHEAST OK. THE AREA
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE BEST COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
(UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE) AND MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE (STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX TRANSPORT
ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE
REMAINING BETWEEN 1000-2000+ J/KG).

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE TO ENERGIZE THE MCS AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR...FAR SOUTHERN IL...AND WESTERN KY/TN LATER THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE REMNANT MCV TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY.


OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A NEARLY
IDENTICAL TRACK (THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER) AS THE ONE THIS
MORNING...I.E. FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. THUS EXPECT THE NEXT MCS TO ONCE AGAIN GET GOING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME REGION...THOUGH PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER IN
THE EVENING (~3-6 HRS EARLIER PERHAPS) BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE.
OVERALL...PER THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6+ INCHES
FROM BOTH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE 4KM NAM CONEST PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH
10-14" ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL MO.


...NRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD OUT OF SW
CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM ERN MT SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THIS AREA INTO LATE WED.  CONTINUED
WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN SD WHERE
THE LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE) AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST FAVORABLE PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WPC QPF WAS
COMPRISED FROM A MULTI-MODEL BLEND USING THE 27KM RES ECMWF AND
GFS...ALONG WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE RGEM AND SSEO MEAN.


...NORTHEAST...

ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITHIN THE BROAD-SCALE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH...WITH THE AXIS LIFTING NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THE SHARPENING DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE (ABOVE NORMAL PWS...MODEST DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG LATER TODAY) WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.75 INCH
ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH AS PER YESTERDAY
ACROSS PA/NY...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY


24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 492612 497622 500628 503635 504640 505644 505653 504659
      500667 497671 496674 497676 504677 508677 509682 516708
      517713 517718 517726 516731 509756 506769 501775 495783
      488791 481798 474803 446793 442791 440789 437791 430795
      421800 416800 414795 412791 412787 415777 416771 413767
      406762 402758 397757 393760 390767 386774 382773 381769
      381758 374763 361772 354779 348787 341794 336802 334813
      334819 333823 333830 335831 337830 341827 342823 342816
      343814 345812 350811 354815 357818 361819 363816 365812
      370804 373797 378794 381796 381800 380805 377810 376815
      376823 377835 378842 380846 387853 394858 397861 400866
      404878 405893 408907 415912 420920 425928 428936 430940
      434942 437944 442943 446942 450943 458950 471966 476974
      479981 489997 494007 500017 507037 513053 515059 517064
      522072 527083 530088 534093 536096 538102 541114 543123
      542131 540135 533139 531140 530143 530151 532164 532171
      529178 526178 521176 514170 502160 494153 490147 487142
      485136 483132 478128 474120 470108 468105 464103 456106
      450109 444109 441108 438110 435110 433111 430111 424110
      421107 426106 430104 429098 426095 426091 430089 434089
      436085 430080 427078 422077 417078 414080 407077 404075
      401077 399083 403094 409100 411103 409110 407112 405108
      398112 396115 390116 387120 385123 385127 378134 374135
      370133 364128 361126 357125 354126 350124 350120 348117
      345116 342114 339110 334108 329108 325110 321113 317116
      313114 309112 306108 306106 310104 318101 322100 327096
      329092 329084 331078 334073 342069 344072 346076 354073
      356075 358080 368090 369094 367095 363094 364097 367099
      368103 367114 377108 382100 385100 386106 388104 390104
      390099 389097 390094 393091
 0.01 393091 394086 395082 392082 389082 385079 383076 381078
      379082 379086 381088 382085 384083 387086 386090 380094
      376099 375089 372081 372074 371070 367072 363073 358072
      353065 351066 348065 343059 343052 346050 350044 353036
      348024 348014 351011 354011 358013 362015 367022 369031
      371040 374042 377041 379038 379033 378029 379024 381020
      384019 391023 396030 401037 404037 401035 400032 400026
      400018 402008 404000 406995 409992 413990 408987 401983
      401978 404976 411971 412970 410968 405961 400956 398954
      396952 394954 389955 384956 380954 377951 372956 363963
      355963 351957 355941 357931 357926 356921 351915 347908
      338893 333886 325882 322881 319882 319893 314927 312939
      310947 306954 302956 300958 300961 299967 303972 305977
      305981 303992 299998 297002 293006 291008 287008 283007
      279006 270006 262008 257012 255018 251023 249024 246022
      240007 235993 238983 239980 237977 233969 236961 238958
      242956 249955 258955 266955 274953 279949 283946 286942
      290935 290924 289918 288913 284896 282886 282875 296845
      308855 308844 308836 308830 307828 305827 297829 287830
      281830 277828 261822 258820 256816 254813 257809 264805
      272803 289801 298799 304797 310795 312791 316785 319781
      320777 321766 325753 332737 334734 337731 348728 363721
      369716 374712 378707 383702 389697 395693 403688 408683
      422673 428668 431664 428661 426659 425656 424648 425635
 0.01 413151 406148 403146 400143 399138 395137 389142 385141
      383138 381137 377141 373145 374147 376146 380145 387159
      381162 381167 384170 387178 395181 399183 401183 404182
      406175 406169 404167 399165 396161 395158 395154 398154
      400158 403162 404162 409157 413151
 0.01 389201 390196 387191 383186 380178 379171 376165 374163
      371162 368170 362173 356173 354173 353171 349164 344159
      342153 340148 336141 334138 332140 332144 333152 332156
      328156 316154 312153 308154 309158 321165 327168 335170
      340172 341174 342181 345188 344192 342195 344202 346203
      348201 349197 349191 351187 353186 360185 365188 375196
      382201 388202 389201
 0.01 385109 386106 384104 383106 383108 384110 385109
 0.01 364157 364155 363153 361153 360154 360156 360158 362159
      364157
 0.01 358149 356148 354147 353148 352150 351152 352153 354155
      356153 357151 358149 358149
 0.01 362114 362112 361107 361105 359100 358100 356095 355100
      356102 357107 357109 357113 360116 362114
 0.01 300118 301109 299104 295092 293087 288084 276079 266074
      257067 253064 251059 250044 250036 250032 249030 244031
      239032 234036 231040 228053 230057 233061 240070 248077
      253081 258084 267090 276098 290115 295118 300118
 0.01 304878 304874 303870 302867 301865 300868 299870 298874
      298877 297880 297884 298888 300890 302886 302884 303880
      304878
 0.25 508721 508712 507704 505699 503695 500692 495693 485698
      480698 476697 473695 469696 466699 462701 458698 456694
      454691 454686 454681 453676 449675 441678 435680 431683
      425691 416695 409700 399707 392713 387719 381727 387735
      392734 395731 403725 406724 413722 416724 418729 430740
      428745 427752 427759 427762 429765 432765 436763 444762
      450762 453764 461770 473782 477784 483783 488780 491777
      496768 500759 503749 506736 508721
 0.25 484633 482626 479623 476622 473625 465632 459637 456640
      454646 454651 454658 456665 459669 465674 471667 471660
      470653 474645 477643 481639 484633
 0.25 484082 484080 484077 483076 482075 482074 480074 479074
      478076 478077 478078 478079 479082 480083 481084 483084
      484082
 0.25 482012 480004 477998 470987 463976 454967 443959 433957
      428952 424947 420942 416935 409923 403913 400908 398901
      392886 388879 386874 380864 371853 368838 367833 365828
      361828 358830 352831 349831 347833 340847 338851 336858
      337867 340874 345884 351897 355902 359907 361926 362934
      364939 371940 377945 381949 384951 388950 394947 397942
      402938 407942 411946 414952 418958 422964 424966 426970
      427978 434986 441997 442002 440005 439008 441011 442013
      447019 451019 453017 453010 453005 455005 460008 465013
      469017 474020 478019 480017 482012
 0.25 422029 422027 421025 420022 420021 418020 418019 416018
      414018 413018 412019 412022 413024 414026 416029 417030
      419031 421031 422029
 0.25 396057 394048 390042 388039 385040 380046 376048 373048
      368046 366043 362042 362045 356050 354055 357058 366057
      365065 371068 374072 374077 374080 377080 380071 380066
      378063 368056 373057 376055 382058 387062 391062 394059
      396057
 0.25 362027 362025 361024 359025 359027 361029 362027
 0.25 341098 341096 340093 340091 339089 338086 337085 335084
      334086 334088 335090 335091 336093 336094 337095 338096
      339098 340098 341098
 0.25 328872 328870 326866 325864 323862 321860 318858 317862
      317866 319870 321872 323874 325876 328874 328872
 0.25 308914 309907 308901 306899 302899 299902 297908 297912
      297918 297922 299925 301926 304922 306919 308914 308914
 0.25 290983 291976 288972 285968 285964 286960 285958 281958
      272963 261964 255966 254968 254972 257976 259981 259987
      262991 267994 273994 279993 283991 287988 290984 290983
 0.25 278815 276813 273812 271811 267810 265810 263811 262814
      262817 264817 268818 270818 273818 275817 278815
 0.25 256000 256998 255996 253994 252994 251994 249994 248994
      247996 247998 247999 248000 248002 249003 250004 251004
      253003 254002 255002 256000
 0.50 504717 503707 501703 497702 491706 486712 481718 476722
      468726 464731 459737 456744 459751 463759 467764 473770
      477774 481776 485774 490770 494763 497755 500747 503728
      504717
 0.50 469001 469994 467989 462981 457976 448971 442968 437966
      433969 434973 436978 440986 446993 453997 460002 465002
      469001
 0.50 439707 438705 436704 435705 435708 437709 438708 439707
 0.50 423708 422705 420703 418702 415703 411704 410705 406707
      405710 404713 403715 404718 408718 411717 414715 416714
      420713 423711 423708
 0.50 404926 402918 400913 394899 389888 380879 373870 368856
      363844 361840 359837 353836 349836 346841 343856 344864
      346870 351885 353891 356897 359901 361910 362919 364925
      366930 371935 379944 384949 389947 394941 396935 396924
      399927 403929 404926
 0.50 378076 378073 377071 377069 376068 376066 375065 375064
      373063 371063 370064 371066 373067 375068 375069 376071
      375073 375075 376077 378076 378076
 0.50 374053 372051 370051 369051 367050 365051 363052 362054
      363055 365055 366055 368055 369055 370054 372054 374053
 0.50 283978 281978 279978 278978 277979 275980 274980 274982
      275983 277983 278982 279982 281981 283979 283978
 1.00 458991 458988 457987 456986 455985 454983 453983 452982
      450981 448980 447980 445980 444981 445982 445983 447985
      447986 448987 450988 452989 453990 454991 455991 457991
      458991
 1.00 392936 391928 389920 383906 381899 378892 370881 366877
      361873 357873 355875 354880 355885 360898 364916 366922
      370927 374932 377938 381944 384947 388946 390941 392936
 1.00 360856 360854 358850 358848 356845 354843 350843 350846
      350851 350855 351857 353859 357860 358862 359859 360856
 1.50 389934 388926 385919 380907 373893 366883 362878 358878
      357881 358888 361896 365912 371925 374930 377936 380943
      384945 387942 388940 389934
 2.00 386940 385934 386927 381916 376904 374898 370894 363884
      359880 358883 359887 363901 365907 368912 369919 373925
      375929 378936 380941 382943 385943 386940
 3.00 381925 380923 380922 379920 378919 378920 378922 378925
      378927 379928 379927 380925 381925

$$




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