Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121841
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 13/0000 UTC THRU SEP 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN TX/SOUTHERN NM...

THE ONGOING HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THIS REGION
WILL BE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND AREA BY 13/00Z.  THIS LESSENING RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORT BY THE H85 FLOW..WHICH WILL GO FROM A VERY MOIST
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO A LESS MOIST EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PARTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN NM INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX..BUT AFTER 00Z AREAL AVERAGE
RAINS WILL BE IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..AS PER FAIRLY AGREEABLE
MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.


...SOUTHERN TX/LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

THIS AREA WILL SEE INCREASING RAINS/EMBEDDED CONVECTION THIS
PERIOD..AS THE MOIST AND RATHER WELL DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE IN THE
WESTERN GULF/NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST.  TO THE NORTH OF THIS
WAVE..STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN TX/LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BRING IN VERY HIGH MOISTURE..WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF
2.25 INCHES PUSHING INLAND LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS
VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS..ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE LOWER/MID RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  LEANED TOWARDS SOME OF THE HEAVIER MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE..WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
TOTALS..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH AMOUNTS QUITE
POSSIBLE.


...EXTREME SOUTHERN FL/FL KEYS...

THE OTHER EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS PERIOD.  THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT..PWS
ABOVE 2 INCHES..WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
SOUTH FL INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVER THE KEYS INTO
SATURDAY.  LEANED TOWARDS SOME OF THE HEAVIER QPF GUIDANCE AS PER
THE ARW..NMMB AND NON-NCEP GLOBAL MODELS FOR MANUAL DAY 1 QPF.


...CAROLINAS INTO GA AND AL...

THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS..ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AND
EASTERN AL..WITH POOLING OF PWS TO ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF THE
FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  UPPER FLOW
BECOMES RATHER DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
FL AND THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF MOVING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST..WHICH WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE LIFT.  HIGH
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING AND/OR REPEATING CELLS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH SOME
ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...GREAT LAKES THRU THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...

THE VERY PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF WILL STRIP SOME
HIGHER PWS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES..LEADING TO SOME GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINS THRU THESE REGIONS.  STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL QPF
CONSENSUS OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 541957 541943 542936 541932 540926 538923 536922 534925
      528942 522959 518968 516976 510991 503008 501016 499026
      497031 497037 497043 498047 495069 494083 496091 500097
      499111 499113 502110 506104 510097 514092 521075 523067
      524057 521045 522039 524036 531021 534012 536000 535993
      537982 541957
 0.01 528167 526160 523155 518151 513147 508144 502143 501146
      506151 510154 513159 518163 522167 526168 528167
 0.01 510718 502701 499700 495701 487704 483705 479703 475699
      468696 460699 455699 451699 449693 448686 447680 448677
      446675 442675 429668 424663 418664 408666 403668 400671
      394675 389681 383685 378691 373697 368703 359716 352729
      346741 343750 339757 331772 328779 327781 327785 326792
      322797 317804 311809 291790 286787 279784 264781 259782
      256781 250781 247784 237793 233798 229804 222817 225835
      232847 243855 250858 253859 256857 263853 270856 275859
      280866 285879 287885 287890 288894 287898 280913 274927
      269930 259931 243935 236938 230943 230997 232003 232009
      236020 237025 236032 234042 234049 235053 239062 245068
      252074 262078 273083 280088 284091 286094 294111 297115
      302117 306120 310119 316117 319113 318104 325099 331092
      337098 342106 341113 342119 342127 346128 351127 354131
      357132 359131 359127 357117 354114 350112 347106 346101
      346094 344089 341080 341075 341067 343053 340050 340043
      339038 336034 330027 320009 315001 314996 314990 315982
      317977 319973 321965 324955 326944 326937 326930 327917
      329904 332895 335884 339872 341863 345852 347849 350846
      359841 368836 375830 392817 400811 407806 411805 415807
      418810 421815 421819 420822 417827 412835 407845 404857
      403862 403868 405873 403879 402885 402890 406894 410897
      413898 418898 427894 432891 438890 444890 449892 453894
      458894 461891 463887 463877 463873 465871 471863 475855
      478842 478834 481827 484824 487818
 0.01 487818 488816 488811 490803 490795 490785 492778 495772
      498768 501762 503754 504748 505740 507732 509727 508721
      510718
 0.01 378078 378073 378071 376067 375066 373064 370063 367063
      368066 369068 371071 372073 374078 376078 378078
 0.01 303912 303909 302908 301909 301912 302913 303912
 0.01 302916 302914 301912 300914 300916 301918 302916
 0.01 297855 296849 295845 292841 288840 283842 285846 289849
      289854 291858 293862 294865 296864 296857 297855
 0.25 481749 480740 478733 475729 472726 467724 463725 453729
      444736 433738 423739 411741 404742 400746 398751 400756
      404760 406766 407773 404775 396782 390790 388795 385799
      384801 385803 388802 390800 391797 394796 399793 407789
      411785 413780 417777 423777 427779 431783 434786 437792
      437797 436802 433816 432822 430828 426837 422848 420860
      418867 418871 420874 425874 429873 438870 444869 448865
      450860 451853 455842 464822 469809 472800 475788 477775
      479768 480761 481749
 0.25 382802 378802 375799 371794 370777 367765 364759 360753
      356753 351755 347761 343767 337780 335790 335798 334806
      332813 325827 317840 313846 309851 306856 304865 304871
      303877 305880 308880 317870 321871 323869 327863 335852
      355832 357828 359824 362818 368814 375810 382802
 0.25 334056 331054 327053 327046 325041 321036 312027 305015
      302008 300000 300993 302985 310957 312947 312938 311932
      307932 306934 304942 301948 299951 296952 294947 290941
      287938 283938 272944 260948 253950 246949 240952 235956
      232961 231969 231981 232990 234997 238003 242009 250017
      259025 263030 265032 264036 255047 254052 257058 263061
      269063 272062 274060 272052 271044 271036 272034 275034
      284034 292035 298036 305039 311043 316047 322052 323055
      322059 319061 318065 318070 312068 303066 300068 300072
      302078 307083 312087 318089 322084 324077 326070 325066
      326062 332059 334056
 0.25 320885 321879 319878 318881 316886 315890 313894 312898
      312905 313907 316903 317898 318894 320887 320885
 0.25 276799 272793 266790 259789 251789 244793 240797 236804
      234811 233818 233828 235836 240841 245845 254845 261844
      267839 270832 269827 268825 266814 267809 269807 274803
      276799
 0.50 471748 470742 469739 467737 462736 454740 449743 443749
      440755 438759 439764 445768 448770 450773 453779 448795
      446804 446808 447814 451811 453808 458803 464789 466784
      466779 464775 462773 465764 468758 471748
 0.50 451818 449814 445817 442821 441826 437835 433842 430852
      429857 428861 431861 436859 439856 441853 441848 440842
      442838 447831 449826 451821 451818
 0.50 365796 362767 361763 358762 353764 349767 347772 344776
      342781 339793 337804 335815 331825 326834 321843 314849
      310854 308859 309862 312862 317858 326855 333848 348833
      351830 353826 354820 357814 362806 365796
 0.50 307028 293002 294992 297984 302968 305960 306955 305951
      302952 300955 297962 290976 286984 282989 280989 279987
      281981 284975 287968 288964 288958 286954 283951 275952
      259955 249955 241957 237962 235969 234981 235990 237996
      241004 251014 257018 263022 270025 279028 295030 302029
      307028
 0.50 267798 264793 258792 251793 246796 242800 239805 236816
      235823 236828 239834 242839 246841 253841 259839 263835
      264829 263822 258811 260806 264802 267798
 1.00 356781 354777 350784 346792 344799 342807 341814 340820
      342824 347819 350812 352804 354797 355788 356781
 1.00 339832 339830 338828 337830 337831 336832 335833 335835
      335837 337835 337834 339832 339832
 1.00 293016 291012 288010 282004 276003 274001 271998 270993
      270989 271984 275977 279970 279964 277962 271961 266961
      257962 246963 243964 240968 239974 239980 240991 244999
      249006 255011 261016 269019 274021 279022 290021 293016
 1.00 258828 257822 253816 251811 247807 243811 240816 240823
      242830 245835 251836 256833 258828
 1.50 275015 276011 274009 271005 266994 266986 268980 270976
      272970 268968 261967 253966 247968 243972 244980 243988
      244994 251003 259010 263014 269016 273017 275015
 1.50 253828 253826 253824 253822 252821 252820 250818 249816
      248815 246815 244817 243819 243821 243823 243825 244827
      245828 245829 247830 249830 251830 252829 253828
 2.00 262002 263994 262986 264978 264974 261972 255970 248972
      246978 246984 246990 249996 253000 257002 260004 262002
 3.00 255992 256990 256988 256986 255984 255982 253981 252981
      251982 251984 251986 251988 252990 253992 254992 255992
      255992

$$




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