Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210640
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 21/1200 UTC THRU JAN 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER OH VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HANDLING THE TWO VERY CLOSELY ALIGNED
NORTHERN STREAMS OF S/WV ENERGY IN VERY SIMILAR FASHION..TAKING
THE S/WV NOW ENTERING THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT..AHEAD OF THE
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHERN IA WHICH
SHEARS EASTWARD BEHIND THIS LEAD S/WV.  THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AHEAD OF THE 1ST S/WV ON A MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET..BUT GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THE S/WVS AND THE LACK OF BACKING
FLOW ALOFT..THE REALLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/PWS WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THAT SAID..WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS/FORCING..STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF
ACCUMULATING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION..GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE S/WV TRACK.  TO GO ALONG WITH GOOD MODEL MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT IS DECENT MODEL QPF AGREEMENT..WITH ONE RELATIVE QPF
MAXIMUM VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WESTERN PA/WESTERN MD
INTO WV..AND ANOTHER MAXIMUM NEARER TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST..WITH A "RELATIVE" MINIMUM IN BETWEEN.  FOLLOWED THIS IDEA
FOR THE MANUAL QPF..WITH ANY GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH WATER
EQUIVALENTS MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE COAST.
PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
FORECAST VERY SIMILARLY BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD THRU
THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS..A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS..AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON THIS
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW.. WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOWS FROM CENTRAL CO INTO MUCH OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NM AND OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE NAM
QPF IS LIKELY A BIT TOO HEAVY HERE..BUT IN GENERAL THE MODEL QPFS
ARE HITTING THIS AREA HARD WITH SOME GREATER THAN 1 INCH WATER
EQUIVALENTS..AND WENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS.  FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF
TX..STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OK..WITH MOST OF
THE MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS AND THUS CLOSELY
FOLLOWED IN THE MANUAL QPF.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 422636 427638 431641 432643 434648 435657 434664 433671
      429683 425693 422699 420705 418715 416722 415729 417745
      422759 426771 428780 428791 430807 432812 432819 434838
      437851 439887 440905 441912 442923 442927 443930 446936
      449940 451945 454949 457955 464964 469973 471979 472982
      472987 472996 468001 460998 452991 446982 441971 438959
      438951 435945 431933 426922 418912 415908 413903 411898
      411891 410881 409877 407876 401875 398871 394867 392863
      388847 387833 388829 387825 383821 378812 376806 374799
      372783 371776 372770 370765 369757 370750 372744 373738
      373731 370726 366730 337759 331766 321774 312779 306782
      300783 296782 292778 291774 292769 294764 297759 303750
      315731 327712 331703 337692 341684 347676 351673 356672
      360677 363683 366689 369694 374685 382676 389669 392664
      393659 399650 410640
 0.01 473334 475333 476333 477333 478332 480332 482330 483330
      484329 486329 488328 488327 490326 490325 492324 494322
      496320 497318 498317 499316 500316 502315 523262 523257
522254 519248
      517243 516238 513231 510225 504217 499213 493211 489208
      484209 478207 473208 468209 465211 463213 463218 467220
      476218 483219 489223 491228 490232 488233 483234 478230
      474231 469233 454243 447253 441264 439266 439270 435276
      432280 430287 433300 430304 428313 427315
 0.01 537215 538210 538205 538201 537197 536194 533193 529192
      526192 525195 525201 526203 526207 527211 529213 532215
      535216 537215
 0.01 485849 485846 482845 480847 476857 476861 474858 474850
      471845 468843 466848 466856 467873 467882 469888 472890
      475886 477881 479875 482863 484857 485849 485849
 0.01 465048 466038 462033 459034 453034 450036 447036 443038
      440040 443046 448049 455049 460050 465048
 0.01 414059 413051 411047 408045 403039 399033 392021 385008
      378994 374987 373981 372977 369970 365965 364957 363945
      363935 361927 357919 352914 350912 347913 342917 338919
      334919 330917 326917 320914 312913 308911 304911 294912
      288914 283918 274929 265939 261945 256951 245959 242964
      241966 242970 243972 245974 251980 255984 258993 261007
      263009 268009 276013 285023 288031 289039 293046 296048
      300049 307050 312054 315060 320067 324072 328081 332086
      333088 334093 335101 337110 338113 341114 345113 347116
      352132 356136 361133 365126 367123 368117 368107 369097
      370088 375082 377078 378074 382069 384067 389066 393066
      396064 403065 406065 408064 413062 414059
 0.25 517278 519273 520267 519257 516251 512245 506241 504241
      502246 501249 498251 491247 487247 484249 481254 478263
      477272 482285 484294 488301 489303 493303 499303 504301
      509297 512291 515283 517278
 0.25 425662 424654 420650 416649 412652 400669 395680 392690
      387712 384725 382747 382751 384756 386757 389757 392754
      397748 401741 401734 402728 406717 413694 417684 421674
      424667 425662
 0.25 410812 410800 409789 406785 400786 393789 388794 385800
      385803 389806 396806 402809 408812 410812
 0.25 392052 392048 390043 387034 386029 384024 379017 370003
      367996 364992 361989 359986 358981 355972 352961 352952
      350947 347944 342943 336945 328947 319948 309948 304949
      299950 293956 290962 285970 283980 283992 286000 291007
      296013 305017 310020 329017 332019 333023 334028 334034
      331042 330048 330055 342064 362067 369066 373064 375062
      377060 380058 386056 390054 392052
 0.25 334746 343733 351716 346709 341711 331729 325742 328749
      334746
 0.50 518271 518265 517259 515256 512252 509248 506248 504251
      505255 506261 507264 510270 511274 515275 518271 518271
 0.50 506290 508284 508280 504271 502264 496257 490255 488257
      487262 488270 491279 494285 495290 497293 502294 504293
      506290
 0.50 406691 406690 404690 402692 402694 402697 403698 405697
      405696 405694 406693 406691
 0.50 379046 379042 379037 378031 376023 373019 367009 363005
      360004 356004 352007 349011 344024 342031 341039 340046
      341052 352056 358058 363058 368055 372052 379046
 0.50 344976 345970 344966 341958 339956 335955 328956 312960
      305962 300966 295972 292979 290987 291995 297002 302005
      309009 316011 325010 331006 339995 344978 344976
 1.00 368034 368029 366025 363023 357022 355027 355031 353038
      355043 358046 362045 365041 367036 368034
 1.00 334982 335976 334972 331970 326970 319972 312974 306979
      303985 308990 313996 315999 318001 324997 329990 332984
      334982

$$




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