Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 041853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EST MON DEC 04 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 05/0000 UTC THRU DEC 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NORTHERN TIER FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES...

ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS HAS COMMENCED AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY
WAY OF NORTHWEST WI/MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE
MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE QPFS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND WE WERE ONCE AGAIN ABLE
TO USE THEM AS THE MAJORITY BASIS FOR A BLEND THAT INCLUDED THE
ARW/NNMB CORES OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE.  THE WPC FORECAST DEPICTS
AREAL AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1.00 INCH NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
INCREASED QPF DOWNWIND OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN.  REFER TO THE WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION AND LOCAL WFO
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS ON HEAVY SNOW AND...IN SOME CASES...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.  IN DUE TIME...THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION HEADS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY BEGINS TO TAPER OFF.


...TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE...LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SET TO OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...BUT A SURGING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A LENGTHY...ALBEIT
NARROW...SQUALL LINE ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX.  THE ARKLATEX PORTION OF THE
THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
AND SOME PADDING FROM EARLY MORNING WARM ADVECTION-FORCED
PRECIPITATION TO BOOST 24-HOUR TOTALS...WHILE AREAS TOWARD WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE
WITH SOME TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LINGERING MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE.  THUS...WPC PREFERRED SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND THE WRF-ARW...WHICH HIGHLIGHT SOME HEAVIER
TOTALS FROM FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
INCLUDING PARTS OF LA/MS/TN. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
BE MINIMIZED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY...QUICK PROGRESSION...AND
RECENT DRY WEATHER...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TRAINING AND BRIEF RAPID RUNOFF IN THE MOST HYDROLOGICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 559842 558834 557828 556820 555814 553801 552794 550788
      537750 531734 523719 509687 498674 496669 493666 486665
      472665 469667 467667 463675 458680 451684 437691 432696
      427702 424705 420707 414709 407716 402723 388734 382738
      378739 375741 365743 356743 351744 349746 343750 333759
      327764 321768 310777 296788 292792 297797 301802 305802
      308800 311803 316803 320802 324800 329795 335791 342788
      349786 354781 358779 363779 365784 365789 362796 358805
      353812 343826 336838 322848 314858 308862 304861 302859
      299856 293857 292860 293864 295868 292872 288876 281881
      276888 273892 274898 275905 276913 276919 275923 274933
      271940 264951 261957 258966 257969 256975 256980 258984
      260992 262998 312990 323982 335975 345967 355956 367944
      373938 379933 384929 390924 396920 403914 414907 427900
      439890 449884 452882 455882 458884 455894 451902 450907
      446910 437924 435927 434931 433934 433941 433947 435951
      439957 445960 452964 468965 475965 481963 498967 517968
      520968 524965 530960 540950 551942 555938 555926 558875
      559842
 0.01 537083 536077 536072 534067 533063 529056 527054 524049
      502031 478014 470009 463006 450002 444002 442002 439000
      432999 425011 428020 431021 433026 435029 435033 436042
      441050 446056 452061 457064 465070 469076 472078 475079
      481085 491097 495103 501107 503106 504103 503098 506090
      512087 521089 532091 536088 537083
 0.01 454103 454100 453099 453098 452095 452094 450092 448094
      448097 448098 449099 449101 451102 452102 453104 454103
 0.01 453081 452078 451075 449073 446070 443070 441069 440069
      436070 436073 438074 441074 444077 445080 447082 449083
      451083 453081
 0.01 414071 414066 414061 413061 410063 409064 405065 402064
      400066 398068 397071 397074 401074 403073 406073 410073
      412072 414071
 0.01 365054 365046 364043 359031 358025 358018 358010 356005
      353004 349009 346020 345025 344033 345039 343043 343050
      346055 352056 354056 356053 361057 365054 365054
 0.01 297809 295801 292795 288790 285789 282790 274797 270792
      265789 263786 261784 257784 255785 253789 254793 256799
      255803 256806 263807 258811 256814 258815 263819 266819
      267816 268812 271811 277811 281811 284810 286808 289807
      293810 297809
 0.25 547852 546836 546828 545820 541814 538811 535809 531809
      527811 523819 518824 514830 511836 506836 505840 506844
      501848 496845 493839 484829 484786 483779 485775 488768
      496755 499747 499737 499732 497726 495718 492710 488704
      486702 482702 478709 476709 473707 468708 466712 462719
      459723 458728 456737 452744 450748 447749 445747 443744
      441724 441719 443716 443710 440708 437712 435715 436719
      433721 425724 418726 414727 411730 407738 401744 397750
      394758 391774 388782 383786 378789 374797 371804 368811
      361821 321868 305890 298902 296908 293915 289922 286931
      285941 285945 286950 291954 299956 302958 302963 304971
      308976 314974 320971 325971 331968 336963 345953 356941
      366929 371923 376918 387908 392904 398901 407893 412889
      417883 417878 414875 409871 401873 403864 405859 406856
      411848 413844 415842 421836 426832 429829 431828 438828
      443827 450827 454833 455837 455843 453850 449852 446850
      444848 439847 432854 429857 428861 430864 435865 443862
      450859 455859 457861 460862 465863 467863 468869 467879
      464887 458903 456910 456919 458928 459937 462941 467942
      474944 492946 500946 508945 515943 522940 528936 532932
      535925 538917 541908 543898 546879 547863 547852
 0.25 439784 437780 435775 433768 431766 427764 424767 424772
      425778 427783 430786 432790 436789 438786 439784
 0.25 427743 427741 426738 426739 426741 426743 427744 427743
 0.25 349769 349765 347764 343764 336767 332770 330775 327780
      326784 327787 334785 340783 345779 348774 349769
 0.25 269802 269800 268798 266796 264795 264796 264798 264800
      265801 266802 267803 268802 269802
 0.50 537883 537872 537862 534848 532844 528842 523844 520847
      512854 505861 501864 496864 490856 484847 477840 475836
      474828 475815 475805 473796 471791 468788 462783 458781
      453780 447796 446802 447808 451816 455823 456829 461840
      463844 465847 469850 471855 474862 477866 479867 480870
      479877 472881 469884 466890 463902 462910 463919 468925
      474932 479934 485936 495937 503936 512931 521926 528920
      532910 534899 536888 537883
 0.50 484745 484740 483736 478736 473740 468744 465747 461753
      459758 460766 462768 465767 470764 475761 479757 483751
      484745
 0.50 447766 444760 440756 438748 437739 434732 431733 429736
      429740 430750 432757 434761 436763 440767 444770 446768
      447766
 0.50 423751 423745 420741 416742 414745 411751 409758 404771
      402777 403785 402789 400793 393794 388795 381799 373808
      366819 347840 333860 330868 327875 319885 311892 306897
      302901 299909 296917 292932 294939 294944 296946 299945
      302944 306945 313959 316961 318960 324958 328961 331962
      334960 338955 342949 351938 356933 360928 366917 369911
      370902 371898 373894 377888 384875 389865 393860 394857
      394851 392849 387849 383849 380850 377851 377846 380839
      384827 390815 395808 400803 406800 412797 416792 417785
      417781 415778 414773 415769 415763 414760 412756 414752
      419753 423751
 0.50 312916 312913 311913 310915 309916 308917 308918 306920
      305922 305924 305926 305928 305930 306931 307930 308928
      309926 309924 310922 310920 311918 312916 312916
 1.00 526894 527883 525873 522868 517867 512870 507874 500883
      496887 493894 487904 484910 485917 499918 506918 510916
      515912 520908 523903 525897 526894
 1.00 469818 469814 468809 467806 465804 462802 461802 460805
      460810 459815 459817 460822 461825 462827 465828 467826
      468821 469818
 1.00 436756 435753 435751 434750 434751 434754 434756 435757
      436756
 1.00 366849 364842 362840 359839 353840 350844 344855 339865
      337870 336878 333888 322907 319914 317920 314930 316934
      319933 323934 327939 330939 332937 335932 339923 344912
      349903 356892 362885 362880 361876 357874 360863 366849
 1.00 308905 308903 307903 306905 305905 304907 304908 306908
      307907 308905 308905
 1.50 520889 519881 515879 509882 505885 501889 498896 498902
      503904 509903 513900 518895 520889
 1.50 357857 355857 353855 353852 352853 350855 349857 347860
      346863 344866 344868 347866 348866 350870 352868 354866
      355863 356859 357857
 1.50 353859 355857 353855 352857 351858 351859 351862 352861
      353860 353859
 1.50 345879 346875 345872 343874 342878 341880 340883 338886
      337889 338893 338897 340894 342891 343890 345886 343884
      344882 345879
 1.50 329911 329909 329906 328906 327909 326910 326911 325913
      326914 328913 328912 329911

$$





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