Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

178
FXUS04 KWBC 120938
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EST TUE DEC 12 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 12/1200 UTC THRU DEC 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

06Z UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACRS WRN NY
STATE TUES MORNING..WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DVLPS ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT ALONG INTERSECTION WITH COASTAL WARM FRONT.  JUST MINOR
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE INTENSITY OF PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE
PARENT CIRCULATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRIPLE POINT LOW...THE LATTER
WHICH WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE NE.
OTHERWISE WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING/PHASING OF THE ASSOCD UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN GT LAKES LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT ALONG WITH A GENL
INCREASE IN THE NEG TILT ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF..WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS 85H WINDS ARE
FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 50KTS OUT OF THE SE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SPREAD IN MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER SMALL AS WELL OWING TO ONLY MINOR
MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES.  THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST ACRS ERN MAINE WITH ITS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1"+ AND
THIS TREND WAS GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN SUPPORT BY THE 00Z
UKMET AND 00Z NAM. SOME OF THE HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED TO CAPTURE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE TERRAIN OVER
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.   OTHERWISE...VERY STG COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STG LAKE EFFECT BANDS
THAT WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTL/SRN APLCNS. THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WRN LAKES TUES
NIGHT AS WEAK COL REGION MOVES OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
00Z HI RES GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS.  PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON WINTER
WEATHER WITH INITIAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NE AS WELL AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION



DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS VALUE FROM THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 00Z
NAM.

...EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...

ONE AREA OF ON-GOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED IN THE DAY 1 SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL GRADUALLY BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.  MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MATURE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW COLD AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN LARGE DELTA T VALUES WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

A SECOND CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKES AND APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD BEFORE SCOOTING OFF SHORE ON DAY 3.  GIVEN ITS
TRACK...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BANDING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ENHANCE
PCPN AMOUNTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES ...REFER TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK. ONCE THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED.  A QUICKER SOLN WAS NOTED HERE THAN IN THE DAYTIME
MODEL RUNS...AND THE QUICKER SOLN WAS FOLLOWED CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SIGNAL IN THE MODELS.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 492612 501629 507637 510642 511650 518675 520681 520686
      520694 521703 522716 522724 521729 518737 513745 509752
      507756 504757 497763 492765 489767 476780 471788 470795
      472801 473817 469824 456837 429826 426823 425820 423815
      420818 418823 415826 412826 409824 408817 406816 403817
      397821 397826 401831 409836 414841 420846 424848 430849
      435849 442848 446847 450848 455850 461849 467851 474858
      479864 480869 481873 480882 476890 473894 474898 482899
      497911 510921 518926 522928 526929 530930 532932 541933
      546938 548942 549948 552960 552972 550976 547979 544982
      542987 535992 527992 523989 519988 512980 488953 484952
      481950 478949 478956 482966 486976 488981 489985 492994
      497000 501008 506016 509024 510031 511038 512045 512050
      511052 508050 505046 500039 495031 492026 490019 486011
      481010 477007 470002 464996 453983 450978 447971 445966
      445959 450952 457945 455939 452935 447928 443921 441914
      441908 441900 443895 447892 450891 455890 459888 458880
      456877 449874 431873 422873 415870 408864 403858 397851
      391844 386842 381841 376842 373841 370838 365836 356841
      354842 353841 353835 356827 357822 361818 366812 378800
      383795 389790 392788 398786 404783 409780 412775 411767
      408764 401760 397759 393762 393757 394754 398750 401745
      403740 403736 404730 403725 401715 398711 395708 384721
      377728 374731 370730 356741 348746 344744 340742 335739
      333736 334729 336720 339716 342711 351699 362684 371670
      381657 390649 395647 400643
 0.01 461255 460252 458250 455251 452251 450252 447253 445255
      443257 442259 442263 445262 447262 449261 452260 455259
      457258 459257 461255
 0.01 258817 255812 251808 247805 247800 244796 240799 238805
      239810 242810 243808 246809 249813 253816 258817
 0.25 474619 484628 492639 498651 500657 503665 504674 505686
      504695 502704 500711 499719 497726 494731 489736 483740
      470746 462754 456758 451762 446766 443772 440778 438786
      437790 434792 431792 427798 424803 420807 416812 414809
      413804 414792 416786 417783 420781 425778 427776 427772
      426762 426756 426752 427745 423745 421748 418748 417744
      417735 418728 421721 424716 425707 423700 422694 420690
      416685 410684 396689 391691 388698 385704 381711 372719
      364727 358730 356729 355723 355715 357707 360701 363696
      370686 378675 386664 393655 399652 406651 412650 417648
      421637
 0.25 467873 467871 466868 466867 464866 463868 462871 464873
      466874 467873
 0.25 449862 448862 447860 446859 445858 444858 443858 441858
      439857 438858 436859 435861 436863 437863 438864 440865
      442865 443865 445865 447864 448864 449862
 0.25 441822 441820 439818 439817 437816 437813 437812 436811
      435809 435808 433808 432809 433811 433813 434814 433815
      433816 434817 435817 436818 437820 438820 439823 441822
      441822
 0.25 429862 427860 426858 425857 424857 422856 420856 419856
      418855 417855 416856 416858 417860 419862 419863 421863
      422864 424864 426864 428863 429862
 0.25 393796 391795 390796 388797 386798 385799 384800 383801
      382802 381803 380805 380806 379807 380808 382809 383808
      385807 385806 387804 388802 389801 390800 391799 392798
      393796
 0.50 462623 463625 467626 473627 478629 482634 483639 483645
      482653 482660 484669 484679 487680 489678 493679 494683
      494689 492695 490704 487719 483725 478729 472733 466737
      461741 456744 451743 450739 449734 448730 443732 435734
      432734 428734 426732 424729 426722 426720 427717 430712
      432704 428698 429691 431684 434678 435673 433668 429662
      427655 428649 431634
 0.50 442752 441749 439747 438743 439741 441738 439736 433735
      431742 432752 432761 431769 432776 434776 434773 436768
      439762 441755 442752
 0.50 425791 425789 424788 422788 421789 420789 419792 418795
      418796 418797 417799 417802 417804 419805 420804 420803
      421801 422801 423799 423797 424796 425794 425793 425791
 0.50 425860 424859 422860 421858 420858 422860 424860 425860
 0.50 399667 396663 394663 391664 385672 379679 372688 367698
      365709 364712 367714 370714 374710 375704 377699 380695
      387687 393680 399670 399667
 1.00 482700 480700 477699 475699 472700 470701 469704 468709
      468712 469716 471717 474716 475714 478711 480709 481706
      482703 482700
 1.00 475657 474655 474654 472654 472655 472658 473660 475657
      475657
 1.00 459689 458686 454685 452683 453678 453674 451669 450669
      447675 445681 444688 443696 445700 446697 447697 453696
      457691 459689
 1.00 444710 444709 442709 441711 440711 439714 441715 442713
      443713 444712 444710
 1.00 438717 438716 436717 434717 436718 438717 438717

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 474619 490630 495634 498638 501642 504647 506651 507656
      509660 510666 511677 514688 515693 514699 515704 515715
      514725 510738 508750 493769 486771 483771 481769 471766
      465763 455764 451760 445765 442770 441777 439782 436787
      432792 429798 430806 432812 450855 453859 457862 459866
      463870 479885 488894 497903 507913 511918 513920 517921
      518923 521923 524927 530936 535950 535960 533966 530972
      525976 523978 519978 510978 507978 504976 498978 494977
      491971 481965 477962 474958 467947 464944 461942 458942
      452947 447949 445947 442947 436942 432936 429930 426924
      424916 430910 431908 430905 426902 415898 411896 409891
      404876 393867 392862 390858 388853 386845 385836 376830
      373829 370829 365829 363827 363823 365817 369815 373810
      385786 388779 386773 384769 377760 367737 357732 352730
      348729 344736 341738 338737 328729 325728 325724 327719
      331706 348694 371684 379681 385675 393664 398659 401655
      406648 411647 423636
 0.01 508045 506030 504021 501016 497012 492009 492005 494004
      496006 501007 504006 504001 503997 500993 491986 480976
      471967 467964 466961 463961 460959 457959 451958 444960
      443963 442968 437961 432957 423951 416942 414939 410937
      410947 412964 424985 429992 434997 436998 437002 434011
      432016 432020 433021 440021 442019 445019 448022 451023
      455030 458037 458040 456041 452041 443033 441033 441038
      442045 444049 447051 450053 452056 453060 453065 451068
      452071 457071 462068 464062 463055 464049 467046 470044
      472046 471049 470054 471058 474065 480075 483076 485074
      488068 490065 493067 498064 502057 504055 502052 495057
      491057 490059 488062 486059 482053 480051 480047 480042
      483039 487038 490038 495037 500039 505045 508045
 0.01 455100 455098 453096 452095 452094 450093 448094 448095
      449097 450098 450100 451101 453101 455101 455100
 0.01 439704 436697 431697 428695 423693 415696 412703 410711
      408719 404727 402733 401737 403739 405743 409748 417750
      421748 423746 425743 429744 432743 434741 436739 435736
      433734 429734 426733 423731 425729 433726 434725 434722
      433720 436717 437713 439704
 0.01 424063 421055 418052 413051 409049 404049 401049 397048
      394044 394046 390049 389054 386061 392068 400067 404068
      408071 412073 417074 419071 422068 424063
 0.01 369797 369793 369788 367785 365784 362784 359785 357788
      358792 358796 360799 361801 363804 365805 368804 368800
      369797
 0.25 501705 500693 497681 493674 488668 482664 475661 461658
      461662 462666 465675 465681 465686 462696 458703 457707
      457714 458720 461723 467728 474730 482730 488729 495723
      499716 500713 501707 501705
 0.25 444749 444745 442742 437745 434750 431754 429762 429769
      429773 431776 433776 435773 438768 441763 443757 444749
 0.25 445875 444869 440865 432855 427845 424839 422832 420824
      418818 418811 420805 423800 423794 411798 412805 409801
      407794 408792 407789 405786 402787 397790 393793 388799
      394800 398803 403818 404826 406832 408840 411847 415858
      417867 421872 436887 440889 443888 444885 445875
 0.25 403692 399691 395692 385697 373700 365706 362707 361713
      360718 363724 371727 375729 380726 388720 392717 394713
      400704 401697 403692
 0.50 491690 491684 488680 486679 481682 477689 473695 468700
      464707 464711 466715 471719 475720 479718 485712 488706
      491698 491690
 0.50 440760 440757 439755 438754 437753 436753 435755 434756
      433757 433759 432761 432763 432764 432766 433768 435768
      436766 437765 438764 439762 440760
 0.50 433873 433871 431869 429867 428864 426862 426861 425860
      424858 424856 423858 423860 424862 424864 425865 426867
      427869 428871 430873 430874 432875 433873

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 516270 518264 518259 515252 514242 511235 508227 504221
      501219 498218 492219 482227 473237 471240 468241 462243
      450244 444247 439251 434257 432260 432266 434268 439269
      445268 450264 456262 462263 457268 449279 446287 444297
      450303 456302 467297 472294 477289 482286 488284 491283
      494284 500280 510278 514274 516270
 0.01 533050 533044 532040 529032 521020 517013 512007 509001
      505993 496984 486974 481969 475966 466956 462956 459954
      456956 452956 446957 443961 440961 433960 427958 421944
      419936 422933 424935 430938 437942 444942 445939 445933
      441929 436923 425917 426913 425910 420906 415902 410896
      408892 406891 403888 401887 390897 381905 380909 380914
      383921 383928 383933 382940 407989 410989 415996 423007
      425011 427011 430016 430021 433021 435019 439014 444010
      449007 454008 456010 461015 469029 474032 478032 479029
      481022 484025 487026 493028 501031 506037 511042 521050
      528056 530056 531054 533050
 0.01 502708 501694 499680 497666 495663 491662 488666 486670
      484679 478697 471702 465707 460714 458717 457722 462726
      465728 468732 470736 471742 472748 474751 478752 481751
      487745 492739 496730 501713 502708
 0.01 504965 503957 499953 497952 494951 487952 481951 475952
      474954 474959 477963 482967 486970 492971 496971 501968
      504965
 0.01 465262 463260 462261 463263 465262 465262
 0.01 489932 489929 487927 487929 487932 489932 489932
 0.01 485879 484871 481862 478856 475849 477831 477827 475825
      471820 467815 465804 462798 459795 456793 453794 448797
      444802 445810 448817 451824 453829 452833 450839 446841
      442839 437835 427829 422829 422825 425822 439820 437815
      429816 426815 424811 425806 427804 437795 441791 443784
      445776 446767 444756 442752 436750 430754 428761 427768
      427778 425785 423787 421787 417790 414797 407799 404801
      404805 407809 413825 421832 417837 415844 407853 404859
      405864 407864 411864 414866 413872 414875 418882 422886
      426890 431889 435885 436879 440878 446880 451884 454889
      458895 461902 464907 466909 470908 474903 480890 483884
      485879
 0.01 458637 456634 453636 448642 442646 435652 431657 428661
      433670 437671 443664 445662 447658 451652 454646 458637
      458637
 0.01 473051 468045 462040 453036 448036 446036 443034 442031
      438031 436035 436042 438052 439057 442057 447056 452057
      454059 458057 461055 466054 470053 473051
 0.01 416691 415677 414670 411666 405661 401660 397660 392662
      389664 383670 370683 367691 365701 367714 368719 372720
      381716 384714 388715 391718 392725 394736 398740 402740
      407738 409735 413727 415717 413703 416693 416691
 0.01 402792 400789 396789 389793 382798 378806 371812 370822
      376819 379814 382811 387806 394801 400795 402792
 0.01 377938 377934 377929 377927 373927 371929 370932 369934
      369938 368941 368945 368948 372947 373945 375943 376940
      377938
 0.01 366816 364815 362816 360819 358821 357823 357828 356830
      357833 358831 360828 361825 363823 365821 366818 366816
 0.01 309769 309761 307757 304755 298757 294765 290776 286785
      282794 278798 274801 269808 264817 260827 256836 257843
      259848 262850 267849 272839 275830 280821 282816 286813
      290810 293806 304790 308781 309769
 0.01 268962 269957 268953 266950 263949 260956 258964 255971
      253978 252983 253988 255988 257985 261979 264972 267966
      268962
 0.01 247964 247960 247956 247952 245951 243952 241955 240958
      239959 238963 238967 239970 240974 243974 244972 245970
      246966 247964
 0.25 507261 507256 505253 502249 498247 493242 485241 482243
      480247 485249 487248 489251 487254 482260 470269 464273
      459280 457284 456290 457291 461291 468289 473285 477282
      480281 486278 493275 498271 504266 507261
 0.25 493248 491247 491248 493248 493248
 0.25 299779 299776 297777 295780 294782 292785 291789 291791
      290795 293795 295792 296790 297788 298785 299781 299779
 0.50 491268 490264 487262 484263 481265 480267 478269 477273
      476276 478277 480276 482275 484274 487272 489270 491268

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.