Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 15/1200 UTC THRU JAN 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID MS
VALLEY...

A DEEP UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN MEXICAN BORDER TOWARD WEST
TX/SOUTHERN NM REGION BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A
NEGATIVE TILT. THEREAFTER THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
BY EARLY MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK BY
EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IMPACTING MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NM EARLY SUNDAY WITH A RAPIDLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN/CENTRAL TX AND UP INTO OK
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KS GIVEN ROBUST LEFT-EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH PWATS
RISING TO OVER 1.25 INCHES. THE HIRES GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR
INDICATES SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED IN BANDS OR
SEGMENTS ORIENTED IN A NORTH/SOUTH OR NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
FASHION...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES THAT COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR. THE EJECTING
TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE CONVECTION RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...INTENSE RATES
WILL BE LIKELY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEF RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND INTO OK AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HERE TOO.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND UP INTO THE COLDER AIR WHERE THERE WILL
BE A RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS NORTH OF
THE LOW TRACK...THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL FOSTER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONGEST FOCUS OF ICING WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KS
WHILE STREAKING DOWNWIND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA GIVEN
AND NORTHERN MO. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KS. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEVELOPING STRONG TROWAL
FEATURE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/ENERGY WRAPPING BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND THE STRONG 500/700 MB LOW CENTER. THIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ESPECIALLY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME
OF THE FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
INCLUDING EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM AND INTO PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AND WESTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THIS EVENT.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 457327 461321 465318 466316 469314 473312 479311 484311
      489310 493308 498307 504305 508302 510297 513291 520271
      522261 520252 517244 512236 508230 505226 501223 498224
      496228 498239 499244 498250 495253 492254 485255 478259
      473262 467268 462273 455278 444287 433300 426315
 0.01 541203 540197 538194 536191 533188 529182 525176 521175
      518177 517188 519196 521205 524212 526220 530227 533228
      536224
 0.01 455710 454709 452709 451710 450711 449713 449714 449716
      448718 447719 447721 447722 449724 450722 451721 452719
      453718 453716 454715 454713 454711 455710
 0.01 433771 433768 433766 433764 432763 432764 431766 430766
      431769 431771 433771 433771
 0.01 435961 436947 435930 435923 434917 430908 425898 420886
      410863 406854 403848 400845 394839 391835 390830 387798
      384790 381786 377786 375788 372792 370796 365797 361800
      358805 354813 348820 345824 345829 348834 352832 355835
      358832 362834 370840 369851 369865 369871 369879 366888
      361898 360904 360913 357925 351928 347932 344935 339936
      335937 328938 324940 318940 308941 300940 295943 292948
      289953 283963 277970 275972 277976 279979 283979 285981
      287985 285989 278995 275999 275003 277008 274013 274020
      278022 290022 293046 296054 300062 302088 297100 300112
      303121 304125 306125 310128 314128 318126 325122 327121
      331122 337125 342129 346128 364130 367130 371132 375130
      379126 384118 389112 392106 392100 389096 386091 387081
      390080 391077 398069 404063 410054 419036 425009 431980
      435961
 0.01 335171 333169 329166 325165 320163 315161 311158 309158
      312161 314163 319165 323167 326170 331172 335171
 0.01 286808 285805 281803 275799 273798 268799 266798 261798
      252799 250802 251804 253807 255808 257805 261804 270803
      275807 282809 286808
 0.01 283084 283080 281076 276069 270063 267061 261059 252058
      247058 243060 241063 239068 241071 245073 253077 261080
      272083 281085 283084
 0.25 515272 517263 515255 508243 506239 502236 502243 504251
      505258 504261 502264 497263 492264 488267 484273 482280
      485285 491288 497289 502290 505290 508288 509279 510275
      512274 515272
 0.25 477292 479287 476286 475286 471287 469288 467290 465292
      464294 464297 466297 469296 471295 473294 475293 477292
 0.25 415952 415947 413945 408941 404937 399934 393931 386931
      382929 380926 380916 380909 378903 376901 374903 373910
      371930 365932 360932 355933 350936 346940 336945 324951
      321952 317952 316954 312951 311954 314955 313956 309960
      300970 296976 293983 287994 286999 286006 287010 289013
      295015 299017 300020 305026 310030 314034 317038 317046
      316051 314053 314060 311067 316071 320074 324079 327084
      327088 327093 325098 323106 325110 328112 334115 341116
      348115 349107 352101 353086 358080 365077 370076 374075
      375072 379058 387047 393032 398017 400010 403005 406998
      408990 409981 410968 411959 413954 415952
 0.25 384106 384104 381101 380101 379103 377106 375108 373111
      373116 376117 378116 380113 382111 383108 384106
 0.50 513263 513261 513258 512255 510252 509249 509248 508246
      507245 507244 505245 506247 506248 506250 507253 508256
      508258 508259 509261 509262 510264 512264 513263
 0.50 400993 401986 401978 401964 401956 399950 397944 393940
      374943 352941 343945 334949 325954 316960 309965 303972
      296981 292990 288001 289007 292010 301010 303016 307021
      314026 319033 320036 324037 330038 335039 337037 340038
      344041 347045 346048 342048 335047 330049 322057 319061
      319065 323067 327069 334070 340070 345069 349070 351073
      352077 356073 360072 364069 365066 364063 361058 362053
      367050 369048 370044 370040 372035 375033 389015 395005
      400993
 1.00 391986 389979 385976 378977 371976 366977 360975 354970
      355967 358965 356963 354960 355956 353952 350950 343949
      337951 332953 320960 312967 301977 295986 293993 293999
      294002 299004 304003 308004 309007 309014 314018 320019
      325020 330019 336017 340015 345011 352008 359009 363014
      369016 377014 381010 385004 387999 389991 391986
 1.00 346063 344063 343063 344064 346063 346063
 1.50 380999 381997 381995 380993 379992 378992 377992 376993
      375994 374997 373999 373001 372001 372002 373003 374005
      376005 377003 378003 379001 380000 380999
 1.50 355991 354985 350981 349976 344973 334973 334970 335969
      342965 346960 345956 345953 341956 337956 332958 323962
      318966 312970 305977 301981 298984 299989 304986 309984
      309986 307989 302993 301995 302998 307996 312994 319992
      330994 331000 326004 316009 314011 316013 323014 334012
      345004 351000 354996 355991
 2.00 334962 332962 332963 334963 334962
 2.00 331965 330964 328965 330965 331965

$$





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