Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 18/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

WHAT HAD BEEN A WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WAS FINALLY
WEAKENING AS OF 18Z AS IT REACHED PARTS OF IND AND THE WESTERN
PART OF THE OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.  SHORT TERM QPF GRAPHICS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION COMBINED WITH RAPID REFRESH/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS.

STILL KEPT AN AREA OF PCPN MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN
NE/NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO INTO IA SINCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEARING SKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING VALUES OF CAPE.
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROGS...SO THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

MUCH LIKE ON SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERPLAYING THE CORRESPONDING QPF AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
RATHER INCOHERENT SMATTERING OF GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS IN
THE AREA.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL DEPICT A MORE COHERENT
PICTURE OF QPF AND THIS IDEA WAS GIVEN MORE CREDENCE. THE ONE
CONCERN WAS HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTIVE RAFL WOULD BE ABLE TO GO
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS SHOULD BE INCREASING OVER
PARTS OF MO LATER TONIGHT.  FOR THIS REASON...WE TENDED TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PCPN OVER IA AND ONLY A VERY SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
MO.

BY MONDAY...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
THE OH VALLEY.  IN THIS AREA...THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.  AS A RESULT...THE
MANUAL QPF WAS SHIFTED SOUTH A BIT.  IN TERMS OF PCPN
AMOUNTS...THERE WAS AN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT RAFL AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH...SO A GENERAL CONSENSUS PCPN VALUE WAS USED.


...CAROLINAS TO THE GULF COAST...

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS SOUTH INTO GA/THE GULF
COAST AND FL.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN 1.75" AND 2"
SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY IN STORMS. HOWEVER
NOT MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION...WITH
GENERALLY PULSE STORMS EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ARW/NSSL WRF AND ESRL HRRR FOR QPF.

...MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST...

A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION BY 00Z.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF RAFL BEING
USHERED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.  AS THAT HAPPENS...RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PARTS OF NH/ME.  THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL A SEPARATE AREA OF RAFL CLOSER TO THE COAST.  RAFL
AMOUNTS HERE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER HALF AN INCH IN AN AREAL
AVERAGE SENSE...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE IN THIS KIND OF A SET UP.

...WEST...

AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
US UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
VICINITY COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.  ONCE AGAIN...WPC GRAPHICS TENDED TO RESORT TO A MULTI
MODEL BLEND WITH THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE RECEIVING MORE WEIGHT THAN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

A GROWING SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY INTO NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN
NE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THAT COMBINES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGH RES MODEL
SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED QPF ACROSS THIS AREA.  THE MODELS
HINTED AT A REPLY OF THIS IDEA ON MONDAY.  GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THINK THE SYNOPTICS FAVOR THE HI
RES GUIDANCE SOLNS EVEN IF THE GLOBAL MODELS DOWN PLAY THE IDEA.


...PAC NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA...WITH A SEPARATE FAVORED AXIS POSSIBLY
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OR INTO WESTERN MT. AGAIN MODELS WERE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH WPC FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND ALSO THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 523259 525246 524237 519228 516219 515214 516211 517206
      519203 528189 531181 531170 529157 525149 521143 516138
      514136 510135 502136 497139 493139 490141 489147 485150
      483154 484159 474191 471194 467194 464195 460194 459189
      461185 466177 473163 480145 481141 484139 489134 498117
      503102 504096 504088 500082 493081 489086 485097 482108
      477125 473133 470141 466150 464159 453171 436198 432202
      429206 428211 426216 425222 430226 444225 451223 454223
      457224 457230 455233 448235 444236 442237 442240 444243
      447243 456241 461239 467238 470246 491271 497276 501278
      503277 510276 515272 520265 523259
 0.01 513707 509682 508677 505674 500667 496666 491664 483662
      477661 469667 462666 455668 447675 441679 435685 429689
      418700 408712 403719 398723 383740 370751 366751 367748
      371741 374736 375731 378721 379712 376704 365699 360699
      356701 348705 345710 341719 337726 334734 332740 331745
      328756 323762 316767 309769 303773 300775 299778 296781
      291782 276774 268773 262777 257783 250784 239787 234794
      229801 228805 229811 230820 233827 238836 245837 249837
      251838 260837 277833 282833 285834 289836 290839 274844
      269849 265858 266864 269867 273869 279869 281872 281876
      279880 277891 275898 275908 275919 276921 276926 273933
      269939 268943 268948 270958 272964 277971 280974 284975
      288977 293978 302974 310968 314965 316961 320953 321944
      320935 315919 313912 312907 314903 316893 318894 318897
      318902 317906 318909 322909 324907 329896 331885 336883
      339882 341884 345891 353894 355891 360885 362877 364868
      365864 369866 375871 377875 378882 380892 384899 389907
      391910 392915 397935 399941 399950 400958 402961 405964
      410965 414965 418964 422958 425950 425938 424925 423914
      422902 421890 423881 424878 426876 429874 432872 437871
      441874 444879 447888 448894 451891 456883 461876 467870
      471868 475868 479870 481873 486877 490879 494878 500875
      504870 507867 509863 512854 513848 513843 512828 511811
      512803 514797 515793 513788 507781 501777 493774 500760
      503756 505753 507743 509735 511726 512715 513707
 0.01 446043 446039 444036 441031 439025 438018 436011 433005
      428001 425002 424997 422992 419987 414987 413992 413000
      413005 411006 404007 398009 389014 383016 381022 378029
      380033 383034 391035 394035 394037 371043 356053 348059
      351064 355062 361059 364058 365061 359064 358066 359069
      369073 371076 369079 365074 358075 354077 351077 344075
      339073 335072 333070 328071 324074 321075 317075 309070
      307069 308066 314062 312057 312051 309053 305055 301055
      300048 293043 290037 290035 288035 288040 291045 290055
      297059 299062 297064 295064 293062 290062 286063 278068
      273070 269067 265063 259059 254057 250057 246060 243065
      243068 246071 250075 256087 262090 268092 271097 275100
      277104 283105 288106 292111 290115 297116 303115 309117
      311119 311124 315129 319134 323131 322127 326127 332130
      336134 340138 345138 346134 348133 354133 359133 364130
      366127 369127 376128 381128 386124 399120 404115 408112
      418107 418100 414099 406100 401104 397101 397099 395093
      392094 392097 391102 392105 391109 388111 381111 379110
      380108 382108 384104 387104 388101 386096 386093 387091
      397085 397079 401076 421051 413043 410040 415039 420038
      424040 428044 432049 436053 441055 441050 443047 446043
 0.01 377101 376099 374098 372100 374101 375102 377101
 0.01 376087 375085 373085 372086 373088 375088 376087
 0.01 367753 365751 363752 362753 364755 366755 367753
 0.01 357109 357107 357104 356102 355102 356102 357100 356098
      356095 354095 353095 351097 351099 350101 350103 350105
      351106 352107 352108 353109 355110 357109
 0.01 339115 339113 338112 338111 337109 335110 335111 334112
      334114 334117 336119 338117 339115
 0.01 337060 336058 334056 332055 330055 329053 327053 325055
      326057 327057 328059 330060 332061 334060 335060 337060
      337060
 0.01 320892 320890 318888 317890 317892 318894 320892
 0.01 285804 284802 283800 281798 279797 278799 278801 278803
      280804 281804 282804 283806 285804
 0.25 517251 517244 516236 514229 511224 506221 501220 499222
      499227 500234 502240 505245 507251 512256 515256 517254
      517251
 0.25 526169 524163 523159 520154 518151 514148 510147 507147
      507151 509154 512157 515161 518166 520170 524171 526169
 0.25 496213 497205 496200 492198 489198 485201 482203 480206
      476210 481212 485213 490216 495215 496213
 0.25 491731 491723 489715 484703 478696 471693 465693 460695
      451703 440718 423719 414736 410745 408751 409759 413761
      416758 419757 420761 420767 420774 417786 415793 418797
      422797 425795 429792 432794 430808 431816 435817 437820
      438825 440827 444827 451824 457823 466824 475828 478827
      480825 480821 476815 472812 462810 455806 451804 449799
      448791 450784 451780 452774 450769 451763 456754 459749
      464746 484744 487742 489737 491731
 0.25 488119 489114 486112 484114 482117 481120 480124 479127
      478129 477133 480132 482130 484128 485126 487121 488119
 0.25 473214 472211 470211 469212 468212 467214 468216 470217
      471216 472215 473214
 0.25 452198 452197 450195 448194 447193 446194 445196 444196
      443198 443200 442201 442203 442204 443205 443206 444206
      445206 447205 448204 449202 451200 451198 452198
 0.25 434037 433031 430028 428025 426025 420020 411015 405015
      402016 397018 396023 399027 402029 410031 419031 427034
      431037 434037
 0.25 419952 420941 419928 417912 416901 415891 414880 413870
      414849 413844 411842 407836 404830 402826 402820 403804
      403799 401796 398793 395793 389795 385800 380806 377813
      373828 370834 368838 370844 375848 378853 380863 381873
      385888 388896 392902 396908 399915 401922 403931 404952
      407957 410958 414957 419952
 0.25 408054 408052 406052 404052 402053 400053 400055 400056
      402056 402055 402056 404056 405056 406055 407054 408054
 0.25 397060 398057 397055 395055 393057 392059 391061 391064
      392066 393066 394064 395064 396062 396061 397060
 0.25 347855 347849 345845 341838 340827 340821 339816 335817
      330820 323824 307827 304831 303836 303844 299851 301855
      304857 306861 307868 310870 314868 316864 315858 312848
      314846 320847 323848 325853 326857 328862 333863 337863
      342862 345860 347855
 0.25 342100 343096 343092 342089 341087 337084 335084 332083
      331086 332088 333092 334095 336097 338099 341100 342100
 0.25 319791 319788 318785 315785 313788 310792 308797 307799
      305804 307806 312807 316806 318802 318798 319792 319791
 0.25 315109 317105 316101 312097 311092 310085 303083 297084
      294086 295090 296095 299100 303104 308106 313110 315109
 0.25 301920 301914 299910 297911 295916 294924 292935 288945
      285952 283958 287961 292960 296958 299950 300945 300939
      297936 296931 299927 301922 301920
 0.25 269820 268813 264810 258807 256801 252799 244800 243802
      243805 244811 246817 250821 256823 261823 265824 268822
      269820
 0.50 469719 467712 463709 456711 451714 447719 445725 444732
      445737 447739 451738 455734 460729 465725 469721 469719
 0.50 441757 439756 435757 432759 430761 429764 428767 427769
      428774 430775 432772 433771 436768 438766 439763 441760
      441757
 0.50 431730 431728 430726 428725 426725 425726 423727 423728
      422730 421733 421735 422737 423739 424739 425739 426739
      427738 428738 429736 430735 430733 431731 431730
 0.50 416942 415936 414930 415925 415920 414912 413893 410880
      409860 408852 406847 402841 398837 396831 395823 392817
      391814 388812 384815 381820 379825 379835 381848 383864
      385879 386886 390893 396903 407925 408928 408933 406941
      408948 410953 414947 416942
 0.50 413026 414024 412022 411022 411021 409020 407019 406018
      404018 403019 402019 400021 400023 402025 402026 404027
      405028 407028 409028 411028 412027 413026
 0.50 341096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337093 338095 340096
      341096
 0.50 334832 333830 329830 326830 323831 321834 319836 318838
      319841 321842 325842 326841 328839 330841 332838 332835
      334832
 1.00 410905 410897 410889 406878 404864 401852 397848 392849
      388852 387856 386865 386872 388879 390884 395893 401903
      404907 408909 410905
 1.50 408896 407887 404878 403869 401864 399862 395855 391854
      389858 388868 390877 393884 397890 401896 404899 407898
      408896
 2.00 406889 404882 403878 401873 400867 397865 394860 392860
      390865 391872 393876 395881 397884 399887 402891 406889
 3.00 400880 400879 400878 399876 398875 398876 398878 399880
      400882 400880

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