Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/0000 UTC THRU AUG 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUILDING/LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM
BAJA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES..AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH..WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN
CA INTO ESPECIALLY THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHWERS AND TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF
SRN CA/AZ INTO THE CNTL GT BASIN.  MODELS SHOW THAT THE WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW VICINITY OF CENTRAL AZ WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THEN A BIT EAST OF NORTH THRU THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..AIDING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ALSO SUPPORTING THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
 AGAIN..WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILARITIES HERE WITH
LARGE SCALE MASS FIELD DETAILS..MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
DETAIL DIFFERENCE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY.  THIS LEAD TO
A FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE QPF THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS..BUT A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE HIRES QPFS.


...NEW ENGLAND..CAROLINA COASTS AND FL...

THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND STILL RELOADING H5 TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD.  A RIBBON OF VERY
HIGH PWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE..DAYTIME HEATING AND EITHER LEFT EXIT OR RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BACK OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.  THE HIRES QPFS ARE NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE..BUT WERE A
BIT HEAVIER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE..AND AGAIN WPC QPF LEANED
TOWARDS CONTINUITY WHICH WAS BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS.  IN
FLORIDA..WEAK FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
THAT SHOULD CONVERGE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL TOWARD THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 540853 540845 540839 536831 530824 524820 509817 506817
      505814 504804 509794 510788 511783 509766 503759 500759
      497758 488754 479749 471744 468741 466737 460731 457728
      462726 465724 470722 479720 498720 503719 506722 510722
      514720 518717 524715 526709 526703 525696 522694 516688
      513684 510679 505670 497665 489663 485665 481664 475660
      467658 460659 452662 448665 445668 445671 443673 437674
      425677 419679 415682 407686 387698 379703 371709 357721
      345732 335745 324760 318768 314775 309782 301787 295790
      288791 282792 278795 273795 273791 275782 275776 274769
      272766 270762 264766 259771 253776 249783 243790 235793
      233794 232797 231800 233806 234812 238822 243823 246827
      252830 256829 261829 267835 273842 275848 275855 271863
      264878 258894 254903 251913 250923 250936 252947 255958
      259964 267969 274973 277978 279981 283985 286987 295992
      310991 313992 317992 319988 319983 315976 310969 303962
      296956 291949 288945 283943 280939 277935 270927 267924
      266918 266904 267898 268894 271884 274876 277871 282863
      287857 292849 296843 296836 295832 293830 290829 293826
      298826 300827 301830 300835 298840 299845 301848 305847
      307844 313835 317825 321817 330811 335806 340799 348785
      359769 365764 370756 377750 384741 390735 393732 397733
      409731 420729 430731 436730 439731 444730 446732 443734
      439735 436738 431745 426752 423761 421771 421778 419784
      416793 413804 413818 413823 416824 418823 420818 423813
      426808 429808 431809 435811 435816 432820 433822 441827
      438837 440839 443837
 0.01 443837 451831 456833 459839 446847 440855 436866 438868
      443868 446866 448865 452862 460856 464853 467853 468856
      464867 462873 463881 465884 468885 474876 480868 486867
      492867 501871 505874 509875 513877 517875 522874 527871
      533864 536861 539856 540853
 0.01 454132 454127 454122 455109 455100 453097 451094 446093
      438088 433089 429086 429079 430076 433076 439077 442080
      445082 448080 450078 449073 445067 442062 439059 432056
      427053 425050 422046 418045 412044 408046 402050 399052
      395050 392046 388044 382049 377047 372048 362049 355054
      353057 348059 343058 339056 334057 334060 335061 339063
      342066 344068 343070 323074 316077 310081 304085 296083
      285082 278077 269074 259070 250068 249069 250073 255079
      260084 264087 269088 274088 276088 278090 280094 284095
      288098 290102 292105 292112 292119 295120 299122 303124
      309128 316133 319136 321139 325148 327151 324153 319154
      313153 310154 311158 318162 324166 333169 341170 357160
      361161 365162 368161 369156 365150 362150 362148 370143
      377146 384144 388148 391152 396159 399162 401162 409161
      416159 420157 422153 424150 425142 424138 423135 424132
      427131 429135 433143 437146 442148 446147 449141 454132
 0.01 400711 398710 396711 394712 393713 393714 391715 390716
      390717 388718 387719 387721 387722 389723 390722 392720
      394719 395717 396714 397714 398714 400711
 0.25 502700 503694 502689 498682 494677 489674 483672 477672
      470674 464678 459683 453687 447690 443696 441701 445706
      450709 456711 462712 470711 476709 483709 489709 493709
      496707 501703 502700
 0.25 425796 425793 425794 423796 425796 425796
 0.25 411112 411104 408098 404103 402105 397105 389103 385103
      382105 377107 376103 377098 378095 380093 386090 388087
      388084 387078 386074 381071 373069 364069 362069 364072
      368077 371084 372087 371091 365094 362094 358095 358103
      360106 362107 362112 358112 353110 348109 345107 343105
      339104 333107 332110 333113 336119 340126 342129 345131
      353132 359129 363129 366130 373131 377132 382128 395121
      411112
 0.25 352760 351757 348758 345763 340773 339777 338773 336771
      333770 330772 326776 320786 316797 313802 316803 318802
      326794 331791 336786 340784 345779 348775 350769 352760
 0.25 330164 329163 327163 325162 324163 325163 327164 329164
      330164
 0.25 321104 319103 317103 315105 317106 319106 320106 321105
      321104
 0.25 290816 290812 288810 284807 278806 272805 265805 262806
      260809 261813 266816 272818 277819 283820 288818 290816
 0.50 496696 493684 490681 486679 483678 478680 470684 464691
      458699 456702 459705 467705 477703 486702 491702 494699
      496696
 0.50 393114 393112 391110 386109 382112 378114 374114 370115
      367118 366120 366124 370124 373124 378123 383122 386120
      388118 392115 393114
 0.50 381081 382078 381077 380076 379076 378075 377076 376078
      376080 376082 377083 379083 380083 381082 381081
 0.50 351123 352121 352119 351118 350117 349116 347114 346113
      344114 342116 342118 343120 345122 346123 348124 350124
      351123
 0.50 329783 330781 329781 328781 327783 326784 325785 325786
      324788 324789 326788 327786 328785 329784 329783
 0.50 282815 282813 280811 278810 276809 275809 273809 271809
      269809 267810 266810 266812 268813 269814 270814 271815
      273815 275816 277816 279816 281816 282815

$$




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