Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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370
FXUS04 KWBC 251808
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 26/0000 UTC THRU MAR 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...GT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY SIMILAR IN LIFTING A WEAKENING
OCCLUDED LOW SYSTEM NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GT
LAKES REGION BY LATE SUN AS SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY ON ITS
HEELS BY AN UPSTREAM TROF MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUN EVE.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL OCCUR FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY SWD
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AS SYSTEM TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEG TILT EARLY
IN THE PD AND INCREASES THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCD COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BNDRY.  HOWEVER..THAT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS
BETTER UPR FORCING LIFTS NEWD AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RELAXES ACRS
THE NRN GULF INTO THE SE/TN VALLEY.  THE HI RES WRF ARW..NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PD...AND THUS USED A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD FOR MANUAL QPF.  FARTHER
NORTH...BROAD WARM ISENTROPIC LIFT..ENHANCED BY WARM FRONTAL BNDRY
LIFTING NWD ACRS THE GT LAKES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD .25 TO .50"+
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST INTO THE CNTL GT LAKES REGION
WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE UPR LOW WITH MID LEVEL COLD
POOL.

...REGARDING UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE CNTL/SRN
PLAINS...

WELL DEFINED UPR TROF INITIALLY OVER THE SW U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EWD IN THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS BY LATE SUN.  ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS AND
MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL GENLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT POST
FRONTAL RAINS AND VERY HI ELEV SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CNTL
ROCKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS SPILLING OUT ACRS THE NRN HI PLAINS.  BY
LATE SUN...STG RETURN FLOW JET AND CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING AFTN INSTABILITIES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF NCNTL TX
INTO CNTL OK AND SRN KS.  THE DRY LOWER RES NAM WAS DISCOUNTED
ACRS THIS AREA WITH THE HIER RES NAM MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT ACRS THIS AREA..THOUGH
GIVEN EXPECTED LATE DAY TIMING OF CONVECTION...KEPT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS AROUND .25 INCH OR LESS.  OTHERWISE...DID A GENL BLEND OF
HIER RES GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED.

...PAC NW/NW CA...

UPSTREAM S/WV TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD PAC NW COAST
BRINGING FRONTAL RAINS INTO THE REGION SUN MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING S AND E INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION BY LATER IN THE AFTN.  MODEL HANDLING OF SYSTEM IS
REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH ONLY SMALL TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
WITH MODELS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE MSTR PLUME BUT LESS THAN
IDEAL FLOW PATRN ALONG THE WEST COAST..WITH DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS SHUNTING DEEPER MSTR PLUME RAPIDLY
SWD ACRS THE ERN PAC AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.
MODEL QPFS AS A RESULT LOOKED REASONABLE WITH .25-50"+ AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES ACRS THE PAC NW INTO NW CA.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 515267 517254 518249 517242 514231 509225 506220 504215
      501206 498195 498192 500191 504190 511187 512170 510157
      506150 504147 501149 497158 493169 492175 487172 482168
      480166 481163 484162 484159 480157 478160 475159 470157
      465156 464152 464149 466144 465137 466132 463127 460123
      457115 461106 463102 462099 458095 455091 454083 456077
      460065 470049 474042 477033 479027 480022 478019 478014
      486994 487990 485987 480995 477999 473996 468996 464998
      457002 451006 450003 446004 439009 432015 425020 420020
      418017 415013 412012 402012 396007 394004 392997 391993
      391986 387974 384967 378959 370954 366952 360951 355952
      352953 348954 345956 338959 331964 323968 317972 312978
      311983 313986 317988 322989 328989 332987 337987 341986
      353985 358987 361990 365999 365003 367005 367009 363030
      364036 365039 364046 360049 358050 359055 358058 361060
      358064 358067 361072 362075 360079 356081 350086 352093
      356102 358107 362110 365113 370113 371106 374103 379098
      386094 391095 394099 399100 398104 395109 391112 377119
      374127 374133 379134 394127 398129 403128 407128 411127
      414126 417121 419116 419109 416100 413096 413089 415085
      418083 422084 426088 430096 435105 432115 431118 432123
      436119 439118 444119 449120 452121 452125 455134 454147
      451151 447149 443146 439143 435143 433148 431154 429155
      426155 420154 415155 413157 412163 413168 412174 417182
      420185 421188 420191 415199 412200 408204 407207 404209
      399207 396205 379196 380199 383202 387204 390207 393211
      391215 384219 377225 375230 375236 376240 376246 372248
      368251 367257 367261 368266 370270 376277 383281 387283
      389285 399289 410293 415294 418293 423295 428294 436294
      445293 449292 454294 459296 463300 470308 476314 484320
      488317 493306 498296 499289 502287 507285 511280 515267
 0.01 506836 506821 505812 504805 499794 494785 488775 486770
      483766 471753 465747 461743 458741 450733 444729 439726
      436723 429715 424710 420705 417705 413706 411708 409709
      399712 385727 389752 388757 384761 382770 382781 385786
      384790 381790 375792 371794 364801 356806 352809 346811
      342813 336815 325815 314816 303819 292822 287830 281839
      279842 279850 280852 282850 285852 284858 282861 280864
      280870 279882 277889 277896 278909 278912 280914 284916
      290910 295904 300896 302900 302907 302914 306917 308922
      310920 314918 317913 330903 334900 339898 349893 357896
      362898 363904 365910 366916 368921 371926 376934 384938
      393941 397943 400944 401947 402952 403957 407959 413959
      422956 426954 430951 435950 438947 447940 454935 457933
      462931 469932 473921 475914 477910 483901 489893 493882
      497870 500861 504848 506836
 0.01 491142 491137 488134 483130 479129 477134 474135 472138
      473143 475144 478142 482140 485141 490143 491142
 0.01 447092 448090 447088 445088 444089 445091 447092 447092
 0.01 362190 362186 361184 357184 355185 351186 349187 347189
      346191 346194 349194 349190 351188 353187 354189 356190
      360191 362190
 0.01 363733 362730 360729 357737 354744 351750 348757 346760
      347765 349767 351767 355760 358754 361746 363738 363733
 0.01 313803 313800 313798 312798 310796 308796 306796 305796
      303797 301797 300798 299799 299800 299802 300803 301803
      303804 305804 307804 309805 311804 312803 313803
 0.01 286806 285803 283802 279800 279796 279794 275795 275797
      276801 277803 275805 277807 279809 282810 284808 286806
 0.01 265800 261796 260786 259778 257775 254774 251775 248777
      250781 253787 253791 251794 247794 245791 240787 234788
      231794 234808 235815 238816 242816 245821 247815 249809
      254805 262803 265800
 0.25 504271 498254 490239 488239 485241 482243 480240 480233
      478230 470227 468224 466219 464216 461214 454217 447217
      440218 432217 428218 425222 428230 426233 423234 416230
      415222 413217 411216 408217 406222 405226 402228 394231
      392234 392239 393246 393252 395256 401261 409265 427271
      435274 444274 450274 455274 460276 468280 475285 480290
      486296 490296 491292 493285 495283 499275 501271 504271
 0.25 497827 497814 496807 494803 489800 486805 485810 484812
      482813 475812 468815 464818 460817 454817 451820 448829
      444830 440832 436841 432850 427850 425849 423844 422836
      421832 418828 414821 412817 412812 410805 408803 403801
      400802 392807 377817 371821 368818 366811 363811 360813
      354818 341830 334835 326841 323843 318844 309845 301848
      294853 292856 294860 301859 297862 294865 291875 289883
      292886 298885 310876 319873 329870 332869 332873 335874
      339873 354866 366874 373878 376881 379884 396890 399894
      400899 399903 396906 396915 400924 406930 409931 410926
      412915 412910 408906 404901 403899 405897 407898 412903
      415908 417910 419916 422920 425921 428920 431918 434914
      439906 446901 451896 457891 460888 465886 468888 471884
      475876 477866 478850 481847 485847 492853 495848 496841
      497827
 0.25 452073 453066 453059 453051 451053 449056 445060 443062
      440067 440071 443073 446075 450075 452073
 0.25 412071 412068 410066 408066 407066 405067 404067 403069
      402069 403070 405070 406070 408070 410071 412071 412071
 0.25 378080 379078 379076 378073 376072 375073 375075 375078
      376078 377080 378080
 0.25 364978 365974 362972 361971 357970 353970 350970 347971
      348974 352975 355976 357976 361978 364978 364978
 0.50 497265 497261 495257 492253 489251 482253 478251 475249
      473246 470246 460245 453245 446246 433253 426255 423257
      423260 427263 431263 440265 455266 460266 464268 472272
      487281 490280 493277 497267 497265
 0.50 466237 465236 464236 463236 465239 466237
 0.50 451237 450236 448235 446236 447238 449238 451237
 0.50 467861 467851 464845 463843 460844 458851 448855 443860
      438863 433864 426865 423866 422869 426873 434881 438885
      444886 449883 453879 460869 465866 467861
 0.50 427242 426241 424239 423238 421237 420236 418235 416234
      415234 414234 413233 411235 411238 412239 414240 415241
      417241 419242 420242 422243 424244 425243 427242
 0.50 422881 422876 419873 417870 417865 414856 409851 407849
      402850 399857 396863 395868 396874 401878 407882 413886
      420888 422881
 0.50 404813 403811 400811 395812 388817 383822 373831 370838
      365839 362838 357833 354825 350826 347829 343834 339838
      335845 330850 324854 319859 315858 310860 302863 297867
      295874 294881 302879 308875 319868 323863 327864 331864
      338862 346862 352862 360863 369861 373860 373857 373853
      376852 383848 388845 391842 393840 391831 389827 392824
      399819 402816 404813
 0.50 312847 311847 310848 309848 307849 305850 305851 307851
      309851 311850 312850 312849 312847
 1.00 362854 362852 361851 360852 360853 359854 360855 362854
      362854
 1.00 357850 354849 351849 347849 344849 341849 339849 336851
      335853 333856 333857 337857 340857 344857 347857 351857
      354855 356852 357850
 1.00 352835 352833 352831 351828 349830 349831 348833 348834
      347835 347838 348839 350839 351837 352837 352835

$$





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