Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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662
FXUS04 KWBC 100632
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
GRADUALLY BE PULLED EASTWARD BY A SERIES OF JET LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA.  GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE BROAD
AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROUGH.  SOME OF THOSE AREAS WILL BE TIED
TO WEAK...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FAST FLOW.  IN OTHER PLACES THE PCPN WILL BE FORCED BY AN
AIRMASS WITH HIGH RH BEING FORCED UPSLOPE IN PLACES LIKE THE WEST
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

IN ADDITION..H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE MINUS 18 TO MINUS 24 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN DOWNWIND...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  AFTER 11/00Z...WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS ALSO STARTED
DEPICTING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO H85 TEMPS FALLING TO READINGS AT OR BELOW MINUS 20
DEGS C.

GIVEN THE MESOSCALE AND GEOGRAPHIC FORCING INVOLVED...WE TENDED TO
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE FINER SCALE ECMWF/GFS AND ON THE HI RES
CAM GUIDANCE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST OVER THE WEST WILL GENERATE
AND SUSTAIN A 130+ KT 250 MB JET STREAK.  INITIALLY STARTING OUT
ON A LINE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MN/IA....THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS
EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL LATER TODAY.  A NARROW STRIPE
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO
A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MODEL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE GOOD SO TENDED TOWARDS AN OVERALL CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR THE MANUAL WPC GRAPHICS.

BANN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537202 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510174 510178 516185 519194 522205 526214 530216 532214
      536210
 0.01 521268 522253 517243 513231 511226 508222 503214 500210
      494208 483206 474209 467212 459216 457221 460225 465227
      469225 475220 479220 481221 483223 485228 486231 484233
      480230 475228 467231 463231 458232 454230 451233 448236
      445240 436241 430240 427235 424231 420231 412237 406244
      402246 399250 402259 405263 410262 417258 420255 420250
      426250 430249 435250 437249 437253 436257 436263 435267
      437269 441271 449270 460270 470274 482279 499291 506293
      510293 513291
 0.01 516009 516001 513996 504991 487979 479972 475970 471966
      461960 452955 448952 443951 439949 433945 430942 426937
      419928 416925 412921 405913 390899 384890 379880 374876
      370871 368867 364867 363875 361879 363885 366889 371899
      374909 379918 386927 401943 414959 421968 428975 436983
      445988 463999 481010 491015 501019 507020 511017 516009
 0.01 508794 506773 504765 503756 503750 501747 496745 492744
      490746 486747 484750 481749 477744 474743 475740 475734
      474729 473720 468714 467712 468708 472703 475698 476692
      473687 469683 464682 460678 456671 457661 458657 457652
      453648 445651 439653 432657 429658 427654 424650 420646
      399660 389666 383667 375669 370672 364675 356685 351691
      348696 345701 343708 342713 341717 339720 331727 326731
      323736 316747 313753 310760 306765 309770 313775 316781
      328779 333776 337771 345763 354754 360753 367754 371756
      375754 378753 380750 383744 386737 389735 393736 403740
      413745 414760 415770 416775 413778 410779 405779 400783
      398785 394787 390790 384795 379800 375805 371808 362815
      358818 355824 352829 350835 347840 346842 348845 350846
      353844 356840 361835 363837 363841 359847 355851 351857
      351859 353859 362854 366850 370849 372847 377846 379848
      379853 389856 396860 400864 404870 410871 422876 427876
      432875 439874 445870 452871 457874 460879 462881 462886
      459892 460901 463908 465910 468910 473896 482887 485882
      485874 483865 480859 479854 479850 478847 474847 470846
      466846 462845 461840 462833 462822 465820 468821 474832
      476838 478840 481839 484837 487836 490835 492831 500821
      503813 504807 508794
 0.01 431840 431838 430836 429833 428831 427831 426830 424830
      422830 421832 419834 421836 421837 423839 425841 426840
      428840 428841 430842 431840
 0.25 518271 519264 518259 516250 508234 503227 498219 496217
      492217 491219 490223 491227 492237 486238 484240 480239
      478235 474234 471242 473246 476248 485261 490270 495277
      502282 506283 509281 515277 518271
 0.25 468875 468873 468870 467868 465866 464867 464868 464871
      465873 466876 468878 468875
 0.25 446729 446727 447724 445723 444725 442728 442730 443732
      445733 445732 446729 446729
 0.25 445761 445754 444747 441742 439743 436748 433751 431754
      429759 430766 433770 437771 439771 442770 443766 445761
 0.25 440798 439794 435793 431793 431788 429783 426783 421789
      415793 413796 411800 411804 411810 412815 414817 418816
      419813 424808 428806 431803 435804 438801 440798
 0.25 437818 436816 435815 433814 432813 431814 432815 432816
      434817 435818 435819 437818
 0.25 429864 428863 427862 426861 424861 422860 420860 419862
      419863 419864 420865 421865 422866 424866 426866 428865
      429864
 0.25 387710 386702 384697 383689 383685 381681 377680 373681
      370685 368689 363699 358709 353717 349727 352729 359729
      371727 377724 381720 384717 386712 387710
 0.25 387802 386801 385801 384802 385803 387802 387802
 0.50 515269 517263 516259 513250 510243 506237 500230 498228
      495229 496238 500245 503252 506258 510265 512269 515269
 0.50 504276 504272 503268 501262 498256 496251 491245 487244
      486249 488257 490262 493266 497272 502277 504276
 0.50 379702 378696 377689 376687 373688 370693 369698 366703
      363708 360713 361718 363719 367719 373715 376711 378705
      379702

$$





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