Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290652
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 29/1200 UTC THRU JUL 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DAY 1.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
PRIOR TO OR SHORTLY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL THEN FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER CLOSED HIGH ENHANCE UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IN A NARROW
AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KS---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH FFG VALUES
RELATIVELY LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
POSSIBLE.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGHER FARTHER EAST NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SW KS---CAN NOT RULE OUT RUNOFF ISSUES HERE ALSO GIVEN THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN CA

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING FROM SOUTHERN AZ
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPS PUSH A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOUTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN CA DAY 1.

SOUTHEAST

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
LOWER TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN AN AXIS OF 2.00-2.25"+ PW
VALUES---SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF MS---AL---SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE---NW FL PENINSULA REGION.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS---ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
AGAIN POSSIBLE.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF DETAILS---BUT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS. WITH
FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW FROM EASTERN TN INTO SW TO NW VA AND
EASTERN WV---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DAY 1 ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OH VALLEY.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS.  DAY 1 QPF DID
NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS--WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 529814 528810 525807 520800 514795 510795 507793 511782
      510773 507771 499765 497764 500761 506755 510749 513744
      513738 511733 508730 506729 502731 496735 488741 484742
      480745 473748 468750 463751 454754 448759 441765 433773
      418783 413785 412783 411779 407771 404763 398754 392750
      390748 387753 384759 381766 377774 375778 371781 365786
      360792 357796 353799 345804 339806 336808 325809 308806
      301804 294798 278791 272789 267794 263800 260803 259808
      258818 257827 258836 257842 257848 256853 257857 261865
      263869 266871 273874 287881 289887 288893 287902 286907
      286911 291920 293923 298923 306919 312915 318911 326905
      330902 335901 342906 346909 347914 349917 350923 351928
      351933 351959 351987 350992 348997 345004 334041 329048
      326051 321052 318055 314053 302049 299048 293047 283046
      273044 264043 256040 248036 244034 239033 233037 230043
      230049 231054 235061 239067 253079 260084 268089 276094
      283098 289103 294110 305122 311127 316132 321136 324134
      325127 328124 329120 334114 341120 347121 352124 354123
      356118 353110 350102 351097 353095 362092 367091 369087
      380078 382074 385071 391066 394063 395059 392050 391045
      391038 390028 387016 386010 386003 387991 389980 390974
      389967 389961 388958 390946 392935 394927 398916 404899
      408889 414883 421879 429876 433874 437873 445868 453863
      462859 469854 479850 482847 486846 489844 494843 503842
      509839 517835 522829 529814
 0.01 509967 509962 509956 509950 507947 505939 503931 499914
      492901 490899 487898 484899 482901 478907 477912 482929
      485936 487944 489953 491960 495967 497972 504972 509967
      509967
 0.01 489800 485799 482800 475801 462803 448805 447807 443808
      436809 429810 425813 419816 418818 420820 423819 429820
      435819 441817 447816 452813 459812 472809 479807 484804
      489800
 0.01 458709 456698 454691 445683 440679 437685 431689 427693
      424695 425700 425705 427707 431713 433715 434720 436741
      441745 443747 446746 450746 451743 449736 447734 448729
      452723 455717 458709 458709
 0.01 353162 351153 347147 346143 344139 341135 338135 332139
      330142 329146 328158 323159 320156 315151 312149 307148
      299144 296147 296150 298153 302156 309160 315165 318167
      323168 333170 336172 338175 340179 343180 345175 344171
      345165 349165 353162
 0.25 485829 484828 482828 481829 482831 484830 485829
 0.25 472771 471769 471768 469768 467768 466769 464771 463772
      463774 463775 463776 464777 465778 467778 468777 469776
      470775 471773 472771
 0.25 419849 418846 416844 413843 409841 404841 396846 388851
      383857 383864 384869 386873 391874 398867 403862 410856
      417851 419849
 0.25 381816 379814 379813 377813 375814 373813 371813 371815
      372817 372819 373821 374823 374824 376824 376823 377822
      378821 379820 381818 381816
 0.25 380031 382014 383005 383997 383980 383971 382965 380959
      378958 376960 371971 360989 356002 352013 347025 344037
      342044 340049 334060 335068 334076 336080 340082 343081
      360071 363066 368063 372061 375057 376050 376042 378039
      380032 380031
 0.25 372835 372833 371832 369832 369833 369835 370837 371836
      372835
 0.25 370864 370858 369852 367847 365849 360856 357859 355863
      354868 351870 348870 344867 336863 328863 321866 319864
      317857 317850 318846 318840 317834 313828 311824 307821
      300815 295810 288806 284804 280804 273810 270816 267820
      266824 268835 271846 274848 278849 281852 283855 289863
      295880 295886 295892 293903 293908 295912 302910 310907
      317902 324898 335897 343898 347897 351893 357886 359878
      364876 367872 370864
 0.25 310102 312097 312091 311087 309083 304078 299076 297073
      290069 284065 276062 267060 250055 243054 242058 244061
      256070 269079 276083 284087 298093 302095 304099 307101
      310103 310102
 0.50 379010 379998 379990 380986 379981 378978 375978 369984
      364992 362996 360003 358013 353022 350026 348031 345041
      342053 342061 343065 346070 349070 354069 358067 362057
      366055 371055 373053 372050 370046 368041 369034 370024
      370023 373027 376022 379011 379010
 0.50 345886 343881 338878 327875 322874 317874 314869 313862
      312854 310846 306835 303829 300825 296821 290820 285821
      279821 276820 272822 271828 274839 275842 278843 283844
      287847 290854 294866 295873 299878 301884 301889 300893
      299898 298900 302900 312899 324894 329893 335894 339894
      343892 345886
 1.00 375999 375994 375992 373990 370990 367992 366994 365996
      364001 365004 367006 371006 372004 374001 375999
 1.00 364050 363043 361036 357032 355031 353032 351037 348044
      347052 347057 348061 353062 357059 361054 364050
 1.00 304861 304859 304858 303859 304861 304861
 1.00 302853 302850 302848 301846 300844 299844 299846 300847
      300848 301851 301853 302854 302853
 1.50 358053 359049 359045 358042 357040 354040 352042 351044
      349048 348050 349054 350057 352058 354058 357056 358053
 2.00 356053 357051 358049 357047 356045 356044 355044 354044
      353046 352046 351048 351051 350052 350053 350054 351055
      352055 353055 354055 356054 356053

$$




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