Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS04 KWBC 260659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 26/1200 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CALIFORNIA

THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY---THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/INCREASING PW VALUES AND THEN
POST FRONTAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
CALIFORNIA DAY 1...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  THE OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PW VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN ROCKIES

AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY---STRENGTHENING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE FROM FAR EASTERN
ID/NORTHWESTERN WY---SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WASATCH...ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .10-.25" AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST-NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

A SEPARATE AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN/PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY.  STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS---SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERN LONG ISLAND---EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
WILL HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY---WITH MORE
RAPID DEEPENING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW PUSHES TOWARD EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.  DAY 1 QPF DID TREND WETTER
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND IN THE
VICINITY OF CAPE COD AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS AS MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED TOWARD MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF .25-.50" ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST---MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE IN THE VICINITY OF
SURFACE TROFFING EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS AREA FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN END
OF THIS PRECIPITATION AREA OVER NORTHEAST MAINE.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION,

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 541189 542183 540180 535173 524158 514147 505145 500147
      494151 487154 472160 457163 442163 433162 428161 425162
      419166 412171 408181 407185 408189 407195 406200 402201
      398199 391195 386191 378185 373184 369181 362180 354180
      349179 348176 346169 341164 332160 323157 312156 309158
      308162 313167 317173 320182 320186 321191 322198 323208
      319210 316213 306224 310230 320232 329235 334236 337238
      353249 382265 391267 399268 417269 434269 437270 441269
      446267 453265 460263 467262 472262 477265 480267 485270
      490272 493272 499274 505276 510268 512256 514251 517248
      523241 526239 528234 530231 531224 537204 541189
 0.01 325689 319698 311706 307712 303716 299722 296726 293733
      290738 284746 271764 267775 268777 267779 262782 242797
      237801 233806 232808 232813 235816 239816 241818 246816
      253810 257806 263804 271803 274802 275800 280798 289798
      293798 295795 296792 298790 307782 316775 325768 334762
      350747 357736 361730 367726 375724 381725 389732 394735
      399736 406735 411731 424712 427707 429704 432701 439699
      446697 431723 430728 437729 443728 445732 441734 439737
      435739 428738 423739 417744 414750 412755 413758 415758
      418759 420763 422769 419770 417769 415774 412778 406781
      396787 386795 381800 378807 380809 383809 385807 395800
      400797 406795 410799 412807 412814 414816 418817 423806
      427799 431795 434788 436782 437772 438767 441762 443757
      446750 450745 457742 463741 465742 468742 471738 475733
      477730 480729 485725 492723 494715 495707 499701 502695
      501687 498683 496675 492671 489668 484665 466656 459658
      452660 445662 438660 428654 419649 417647 413647 407649
      396651 384654 379655 375655
 0.01 477195 478190 475187 472183 469181 466182 462184 459190
      457197 454206 457207 459205 463203 465201 468201 474199
      477195
 0.01 477704 476703 474703 472703 470702 469702 467703 465703
      464705 464706 462706 461708 463710 465710 466709 468709
      469708 471708 473707 474707 476706 477704
 0.01 478890 478872 476870 477866 479860 477851 474847 466843
      459835 457833 457828 456820 455803 451792 447790 443791
      436798 429805 428811 430814 433814 435816 439819 445827
      447832 449841 449853 465861 471888 473892 476895 478890
 0.01 448119 450110 448103 445097 440093 434091 430088 425084
      422086 421095 421099 419102 415105 412103 412098 410096
      407094 404095 402092 400089 401085 404079 413074 412070
      406067 395061 389060 384056 381053 375052 369050 362050
      356051 352055 351062 351070 350074 349077 345078 342078
      334077 330081 327086 326095 326102 330106 335109 338113
      347122 352125 357125 358123 357117 355112 352107 350102
      351097 353095 355094 358096 371098 381100 386098 388097
      391097 394102 394108 391110 381115 377117 374122 370125
      367130 365135 367138 371139 375135 379131 383128 387127
      398123 405125 410125 417126 421128 426127 430124 439120
      448119
 0.01 230987 233989 239987 246996 249001 254005 259008 263013
      266017 272021 277022 283021 290021 299023 304023 309019
      311015 315014 319014 326013 331010 331006 329003 330997
      326986 324982 323981 320979 317979 312983 308987 304990
      299995 294997 288998 284997 280998 275995 272993 271990
      270982 271974 267968 263965 255965 248964 241965 235967
      232969 231971
 0.25 529202 530191 528182 524174 519168 513164 507165 501168
      497173 495183 500188 502192 504196 504200 501201 487200
      481202 476205 465211 459213 452215 445216 436215 430214
      425217 421223 418224 417220 416216 414213 406209 383193
      371185 367183 362183 355184 352188 349188 346183 344176
      342168 328163 324162 322165 323169 326172 338198 341205
      342208 340213 339220 346225 372239 378243 383248 391252
      400255 409257 415257 429257 456253 469252 476253 483254
      506240 509234 511224 512215 517212 524208 529202
 0.25 484235 483234 484235 484235
 0.25 486684 484678 480673 477668 472667 462665 450668 444669
      438671 431674 426673 420673 416670 412666 407665 398664
      386663 375664 368666 364668 356674 347683 332698 329702
      326707 324720 323733 322739 319744 314752 313758 313762
      315764 319762 322758 329751 344734 351727 358718 366711
      372709 380708 385709 390713 396719 403727 407725 411720
      416709 424703 427698 431695 444693 456693 466693 471693
      479691 484688 486684
 0.25 426791 427788 427786 426785 424786 423787 422787 421789
      421790 420792 419794 419797 418799 419802 420803 421801
      422800 423799 423798 424796 425794 425793 426791 426791
 0.25 382081 381076 380071 377067 375063 370061 366061 365065
      367070 369072 371077 374081 377084 381082 382081
 0.25 353117 352116 352115 351114 349112 348110 347110 346108
      345107 344106 343107 344109 345112 346112 347114 349116
      349117 351118 352118 353117
 0.25 342098 341096 340093 338091 337091 336093 336095 338097
      340099 341099 342098
 0.25 253986 254982 252980 250978 248976 246975 244974 242974
      240975 241978 242981 244982 247984 249986 251987 253986
 0.50 524198 524190 522184 519178 515174 510173 506179 506185
      508191 512197 516201 520201 524198
 0.50 504228 503220 501214 497209 489207 483207 478208 473211
      469215 463216 459218 452219 446219 423222 426227 424232
      422231 415229 414226 414221 396204 386197 374189 369185
      365184 362186 362188 365194 373203 377208 379210 377212
      370212 364209 358206 352202 349198 347192 343186 342184
      340185 340192 342199 345204 346210 351221 355225 362230
      369232 375236 384243 389247 396250 404252 412253 423252
      435250 459248 481247 482242 482239 480231 478229 474228
      472226 473224 476223 482222 488224 496236 502233 504228
 0.50 473680 472676 469674 464673 451672 446673 442679 435681
      429682 416681 411683 408686 408691 411699 413702 416702
      427693 433691 439690 453689 468685 473683 473680
 0.50 398222 397220 397219 395219 394218 392217 390218 390220
      391222 393223 395223 396223 398222
 0.50 396689 395687 394687 394689 395691 396689
 0.50 370684 370678 366678 362680 359683 356687 355690 352695
      352699 356699 360697 363697 366694 370691 369689 370684
      370684
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066
      373065 371064 369064 368066 368068 369069 370070 371071
      371073 372075 373077 374079 375080 376080 377079 378078
 0.50 331166 330166 328166 330167 331166
 0.50 324743 324742 322743 324743 324743
 1.00 497224 497221 497218 497217 496216 495214 494214 492213
      491213 489212 487213 487215 487216 487218 488219 490220
      491221 493222 494224 496225 497224
 1.00 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474235 473237 473239
      475241 476240 477240 478238
 1.00 457237 456236 455236 454236 453237 452238 453238 454239
      455239 456237 457237
 1.00 431243 430239 425237 416234 411232 406230 396227 390227
      387228 383230 384235 387239 390242 398246 403248 407247
      416247 425247 429246 431243
 1.00 402216 400211 395207 391203 386200 380197 375193 372194
      375198 378204 383208 387211 392214 399217 402216
 1.00 369224 370222 370221 368220 366219 365217 364216 363215
      362214 360213 358213 356214 356216 357218 357219 359221
      360223 362224 364224 365225 367225 369224 369224
 1.50 423241 422241 421240 419239 417239 419240 421241 422241
      423241
 1.50 405240 405238 403236 403235 402234 400233 399232 397232
      395232 393232 391234 391237 392238 394239 395240 397241
      399242 400243 402243 404242 404241 405240
 1.50 395210 395209 393209 392208 390207 390206 388205 387203
      386203 385202 383202 382201 380201 379201 380202 381203
      382204 383205 385206 386207 388208 390209 391209 393209
      395210 395210

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.