Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 24/0000 UTC THRU MAR 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FL...

THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRED UP OVERNIGHT AND MADE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY IS LOSING THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY.  STILL PROPAGATED SOME PCPN SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA
THINKING AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST UNTIL
SUNSET...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.  GENERALLY
EXPECT AREAL AVERAGE QPF TO BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC REGION...

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THEIR HANDLING OF THE H5 S/WV DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE
MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED AREAS AREA
ABOUT DONE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES
EASTWARD...THEN THE THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATIONS
AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PARTS OF WRN
MD/PA.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE SYSTEM IS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE.  MODEL QPFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..SO USED A
MULTI MODEL BLEND FOR THE WPC PROG.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
SNOWFALL DETAILS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST THRU THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE MODELS WERE ALSO CONTINUING TO HANDLE THE DETAILS OF A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF AGREEMENT.  ONE SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS TROF SHOULD HEAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD..WITH AN UPSTREAM S/WV DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MODELS STILL SHOW RESPECTABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL FORCING THRU
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVY SNOWS THRU THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ID..WESTERN WY..NORTHERN UT AND CENTRAL CO...WITH MODEL QPFS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS.  ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
CA..ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND S/WV ITSELF THRU THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO PARTS OF OR AND
NORTHWESTERN CA AHEAD OF THIS 2ND S/WV.

HEAVY SNOWS ARE LIKELY IN THE OR CASCADES..WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OR/NORTHWESTERN CA COASTAL
RANGES.  AND FINALLY..DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAINS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO.
MODEL QPFS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING SOME 0.25-0.50+
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WPC FOLLOWED THIS IDEA.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 538205 539192 539181 541156 540133 540127 539121 537111
      536106 534103 529093 526083 523078 522074 523071 529063
      531059 531051 532021 527005 524996 523991 521989 514985
      508981 505979 501979 494977 485976 482974 476973 469969
      463963 457955 454951 452946 445928 441921 436915 430912
      427904 421887 419883 416879 413875 410863 407854 401850
      392848 385841 383837 382834 380834 375835 374841 374853
      375862 376866 377870 374887 374893 372898 369900 365900
      362907 359915 358924 359936 357941 355945 354945 348951
      345954 341958 337960 339965 342967 346965 354961 359958
      366954 368952 373954 371961 373966 376969 378973 378979
      378990 381995 386996 389995 398997 399002 397006 397017
      400029 398034 397040 397054 389060 384063 384066 382069
      380070 379075 380079 382082 388093 390092 392094 392098
      396093 399089 404087 411081 417075 423070 428066 431067
      432072 432076 433078 436081 440086 440089 438091 435093
      432092 426088 425091 427094 428099 425100 423103 420105
      414107 410100 408096 406098 405104 402107 397103 396108
      392112 387115 385115 384118 381121 382124 384127 387127
      396125 398125 400127 405128 412127 416129 417134 414141
      414152 412157 414160 416164 416170 414173 414177 416184
      419188 421191 420195 418199 417200 413202 406208 404210
      400210 395208 395212 398216 400220 387235 389240 394246
      396254 399260 403269 409273 413274 416274 423273 430271
      435273 439276 445278 449278 455275 458270 461264 463259
      467257 471256 474257 478264 482270 487277 492283 499284
      504276 505271 504267 503257 498251 513240 512236 512228
      511222 512215 515208 518203 522211 526216 532217 536210
      538205
 0.01 509206 510198 508191 505187 504185 501184 489181 485179
      480177 475176 471181 467192 467197 468202 472201 482202
      489195 493195 497200 498206 501211 506211 509206
 0.01 513142 510136 504130 501129 500127 495121 492117 486113
      483107 480099 477097 474097 471098 469100 470103 473103
      476105 476109 471110 470116 467116 467119 469122 472123
      478126 482127 484130 489133 496137 506145 509146 513142
 0.01 487236 486234 486233 485231 483232 483235 484236 486237
      487236
 0.01 421015 421013 420011 420010 418008 417007 415008 413010
      413012 413015 411017 411019 411022 411024 412026 414024
      416024 417022 418022 419020 420017 421015
 0.01 408805 408788 406781 403776 400772 396773 390775 384778
      385783 387784 390783 392781 395782 391787 387790 382793
      377796 375801 369809 361816 361824 360830 362832 365825
      379818 383818 384811 387807 392805 398835 398841 402839
      403834 405827 406814 408805
 0.01 352746 352739 349736 346734 342736 332740 328738 325736
      321734 317735 314740 313745 310755 302761 297762 292762
      283759 279758 272760 264765 255779 249798 240813 237818
      235822 234826 234832 233836 233840 236845 240846 246839
      249835 253832 258828 259823 259816 258810 263807 266803
      272803 276804 280807 287811 293819 297821 301821 305823
      310823 315821 318818 321807 322802 325799 330797 332794
      335789 337785 338772 341764 348755 352746
 0.01 301905 301898 299893 297888 297880 296873 294868 292856
      291849 287847 283850 281854 282861 284867 284874 284881
      282892 284896 289897 293906 298908 301905
 0.01 257006 255002 253999 248998 244996 242993 237993 236997
      238000 242003 245005 248008 253009 256007 257006
 0.25 517033 518026 516020 514016 511013 508010 503008 500007
      495008 499031 497034 493033 485030 470029 469033 466038
      463040 462044 463047 468053 474059 481065 489069 497069
      502067 505065 509058 511048 512043 514039 517033
 0.25 491222 491217 489214 483214 477210 473211 472214 459210
      454211 448212 445208 447200 445193 445190 448188 456179
      454173 454169 455164 459160 464160 468160 471162 475163
      477162 481156 481147 485145 489149 493148 494145 492140
      487136 481133 477133 475136 475141 470144 467143 465141
      461136 456135 453134 453138 454142 452144 446146 440143
      433150 434156 437160 446170 448175 448182 445182 442183
      439188 437191 438196 441200 441204 441208 436211 430208
      426206 423208 423213 421215 417219 412221 409224 404229
      400232 396237 397243 404254 407258 413261 419262 425261
      431260 438261 444261 449259 452255 455249 459242 461235
      462228 466227 470226 471223 473219 475219 491222
 0.25 479238 477237 477238 479239 479238
 0.25 460109 456101 452096 445098 440097 437100 435100 432104
      429105 425105 424108 424112 426115 428115 433114 438115
      444120 450121 453120 455115 456112 459111 460109
 0.25 449073 448072 448070 447068 446068 445066 443066 442067
      441067 441069 443071 444072 445073 446074 448074 449073
 0.25 443971 444963 443957 441952 437947 433945 430941 424933
      418924 412915 405909 403907 400907 396909 392912 390917
      386928 384934 384940 385954 385961 384969 384974 386979
      405987 413987 422993 426995 429992 431986 429983 436978
      441974 443971
 0.25 408070 409068 408067 407066 405065 403066 401067 402069
      403072 405071 406071 408070 408070
 0.25 402880 403878 402876 401878 402880 402881 402880
 0.25 323784 321780 319777 315777 309780 305783 301787 300794
      301800 305805 309804 312803 316799 319795 322789 323784
 0.50 498054 498050 497048 493047 490047 488045 485044 483045
      483048 485050 488051 491052 493054 496055 498054
 0.50 485138 484138 482137 480137 480138 482139 484138 485138
 0.50 463218 462215 459216 454216 445216 439214 431214 428215
      425218 423221 423225 421228 417228 413227 409228 403233
      401236 400242 402246 405249 412253 420255 436253 450249
      452244 452237 450233 451230 462219 463218
 0.50 464154 465151 464150 463149 462147 461146 459147 459148
      458150 459151 459153 460154 462154 463154 464154
 0.50 449160 449158 448156 446156 444156 443156 441155 440154
      439153 438153 437153 437155 438156 439156 441158 442159
      444159 446160 447161 449160
 0.50 447111 447110 447109 446107 444107 442107 442108 442109
      444110 444111 445111 447112 447111
 0.50 430957 428949 425942 416935 410933 403929 392924 389938
      388959 388968 393973 403981 409979 416976 421973 424971
      426968 430957
 1.00 445223 445220 442217 441217 438218 436219 434220 431221
      429223 431226 433228 435227 438226 441225 443224 445223
 1.00 439241 439238 435236 430237 424234 420233 413232 409235
      405241 406244 409245 416247 421248 428247 432245 436242
      439241
 1.00 405966 405961 404956 403954 402950 401947 399945 396944
      395947 394949 393954 393956 393959 395962 396965 398967
      400968 403968 405966
 1.50 428245 429240 426238 423237 420236 416235 413236 412238
      412241 415243 416244 420245 422245 425245 428245
 2.00 426242 426241 424240 423239 421238 419238 418237 417237
      416238 415239 415240 417241 418242 418243 420244 422244
      423243 424243 426242 426242

$$





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