Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260637
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 26/1200 UTC THRU SEP 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROF NOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THIS PERIOD..AS STRONG
S/WV ENERGY NOW VICINITY OF 40/135W DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF AN H5 LOW OVER CENTRAL CA/WESTERN NV BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BECOME A MAJOR
RAINFALL PRODUCER BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT..AND PARTICULARLY SO OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN..DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUING HEIGHT
FALLS..INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAINLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT..AND STRENGTHENING H85 SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF CA
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AZ..SOUTHEASTERN CA..SOUTHEASTERN NV AND
SOUTHWESTERN UT AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS SOUTHERLY H5 FLOW
WILL BRING PWS OF ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE AZ/CA/NV
BORDER..HELPING TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN AZ INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CA..SOUTHERN NV AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UT.  MODEL
QPFS..INCLUDING THE GLOBAL AND HIRES SOLUTIONS..GENERALLY AGREE OF
THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL SCENARIO THIS REGION..SO CONFIDENCE RATHER
HIGH ON ITS OCCURRENCE.  FARTHER NORTH..FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES..LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL STILL BE IMPRESSIVE..BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS..LIKELY ONLY SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAINS FROM NORTHERN UT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MT.  AND
FINALLY..SOME STILL FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO
NORTHWESTERN WA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS.


...SOUTHERN TX/LOWER TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

SOME MODEST INCREASE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UP INTO
SOUTHERN TX/LOWER TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE
PERIOD..ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PWS..SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN RAINS THIS REGION..WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT AIDED BY THE
WEAK CLOSING OFF H5 LOW VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND AREA.  GENERALLY
EXPECT SOME 0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT
WITH ISOLATED 2+ INCH TOTALS A POSSIBILITY.


...THE EXTREME EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FL...

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD FROM
THE EXTREME EASTERN CAROLINAS DOWN INTO THE FL PENINSULA.  THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST..WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
ORGANIZED AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE THE
RECENT ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 534198 533182 532174 531171 529168 524167 521168 515166
      509163 505163 502160 498157 493155 487156 481154 465153
      460151 458153 456157 454164 450167 448168 447172 449178
      452178 456177 461174 467172 472169 476169 478172 481176
      487188 490197 489200 486204 481205 477204 475205 466210
      455213 453214 452218 456223 457228 455231 453234 448234
      438235 431234 425234 422235 421237 424244 432247 438246
      440244 443245 446247 446250 445256 446258 449259 455260
      462259 465258 469260 475263 485271 494279 498284 501286
      504287 511284 515280 519274 520267 520258 519250 514234
      508221 504215 502210 500206 502203 508205 513210 519216
      525219 529218 531215 532208 534198
 0.01 226052 229057 234062 242070 260086 283105 294115 306121
      320128 324130 324139 327145 330149 338152 344155 362158
      371160 378164 382166 386167 393173 392176 391179 385184
      380187 376194 376199 380203 387207 394207 399205 403201
      409195 414190 424179 435169 440165 446160 460140 465137
      471136 476134 481128 482123 483115 482111 483105 486098
      487085 485082 480081 477082 475085 472087 468086 467084
      463084 457086 452090 447092 441093 437098 434100 431101
      421107 418108 413107 408101 407098 405101 402109 388114
      382118 374117 368118 363118 359117 353108 348094 342083
      339076 333073 329074 327077 326083 327087 330094 332098
      329100 325102 323105 323111 320112 318110 314108 312105
      303099 296094 291092 281084 276079 274077 275074 277072
      290066 294060 296058 296052 297040 303036 305034 305029
      306025 309023 314019 316013 318009 321002 319994 315989
      305977 299972 296964 293958 289953 283947 282944 282939
      285908 284900 281894 278890 269890 262894 257899 253906
      251914 249922 246930 244937 243941 241943 239944 237946
      234953 231959 231966 233982 233988 236995 251021 255028
      251035 248038 244038 240035 234032 230031 228031
 0.01 417691 417685 416679 413670 408665 405664 402668 401676
      402687 401696 400704 401709 403712 407710 409707 412700
      416693 417691
 0.01 349754 346746 343743 339741 332743 327746 320752 291776
      278785 273787 268787 263786 259787 249789 245790 242794
      239798 237804 236814 235818 235823 238833 242844 247853
      252857 260860 269857 271857 273858 276863 284879 287883
      293883 298882 300878 302873 302868 303863 302859 301851
      299846 298838 299834 311822 318814 324806 333793 339783
      343774 347765 349754
 0.25 509270 511258 511252 510246 505231 501224 497218 487223
      484222 483226 485235 486238 483238 480231 476229 474230
      469236 467240 468244 474250 486259 491265 495272 499277
      503278 506277 509270
 0.25 472111 473107 472104 470101 466100 461099 453103 445108
      440113 434114 415117 408117 404118 401121 400125 400132
      397135 393135 385135 379130 376126 371126 364132 359134
      352129 340116 334115 334124 334134 334142 336146 344149
      351150 360148 365150 369153 373156 377157 383158 388158
      392155 399150 404146 406144 411143 417146 420147 423145
      428141 436139 442135 456127 464120 472111
 0.25 423162 424160 424157 423156 422155 420155 419156 418157
      416158 415160 414162 414165 415167 417167 418167 420166
      422164 423162
 0.25 388199 389197 388195 386195 385194 384195 384196 386197
      387198 388199 388199
 0.25 341761 341757 339754 336752 331754 326758 321763 312775
      303785 298790 292795 288799 286803 287807 290809 293810
      300811 309811 317807 321803 326797 333785 339771 341761
 0.25 307007 307002 305997 299988 290969 277955 275951 274946
      270934 264934 262938 259941 254945 248951 244962 243968
      243974 244981 246986 253992 260999 266005 272013 280019
      286022 292022 298021 302019 305015 307009 307007
 0.25 292814 288810 280809 267808 260807 255809 253812 247823
      249829 252832 255833 260834 266838 276846 281848 285852
      289858 292858 294855 293847 292837 289831 289828 291825
      292819 292814
 0.50 475233 474233 472235 472237 472239 473241 475244 477245
      478244 479244 480242 480241 480239 479236 478233 476232
      475233
 0.50 456110 454110 452109 452110 450111 450112 450114 451114
      452115 453115 454114 455113 456111 456110
 0.50 393147 392144 389142 384140 379135 376131 373130 371132
      367137 365144 367149 372153 379155 386155 390152 393147
 0.50 355142 355140 353137 351135 349133 347131 344129 342128
      340131 340135 340139 341143 342145 344147 347148 349147
      353146 355144 355142
 0.50 338764 337758 333757 330759 322767 315776 309784 301793
      299798 298802 300805 305807 313805 321799 328790 334779
      336774 338766 338764
 0.50 302011 303005 302002 297995 288982 286974 282966 277961
      272954 267949 263950 259951 254954 251958 250962 252980
      257986 262992 271004 276009 283013 291015 297015 300014
      302011
 0.50 288841 288840 288839 286838 285839 285842 286842 288841
      288841
 0.50 277828 276825 274824 271822 268820 266820 263819 262819
      263821 266823 269824 270825 272827 274828 277828
 1.00 382149 381147 380144 378142 377139 375136 373136 371138
      369140 368144 369147 371149 374151 378151 379150 382149
 1.00 332776 333772 331769 328770 326772 323777 320782 316786
      313790 311792 310796 314798 317796 321793 325788 328783
      331778 332776
 1.00 293004 292000 290997 288995 286995 283993 280992 277991
      275990 273992 273994 274997 277998 278000 280001 283003
      286005 289005 293004
 1.00 274968 273966 272963 270962 266960 263961 261962 260966
      261968 263971 264972 268972 270972 272970 274968
 1.50 375148 376146 375143 375142 374141 373140 373141 372141
      371142 370145 371147 373148 374148 375148

$$




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