Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200635
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 20/1200 UTC THRU JUL 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHEASTERN/GULF COAST STATES...

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAYV RAINS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A WEAK BUT DEFINED
H5 S/WV NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT A BIT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS S/WV WILL BE ABLE TO TAP A STILL VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE..WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES..TO SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GA..THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
AND UP INTO SC.  GLOBAL MODEL AND HIRES QPFS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS IDEA..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.  THE
VERY HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES..BUT THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP AND EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLOODING THREAT TO A MINIMUM.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AIDED BY AN INCREASE/POOLING OF HIGHER PWS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT..BUT A RISING HEIGHT REGIME WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER
FORCING LIKELY MEANS ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND AS A RESULT KEPT AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS IN
THE LIGHT RANGE..GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN.


...PARTS OF THE SIERRA RANGE INTO NV...

THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA ON SATURDAY EVENING IS FORECAST
SIMILARLY BY ALL THE MODELS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THRU
PARTS OF CA ON SUNDAY AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ENHANCED LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FEATURE PUSHES
INTO THIS REGION.  SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT KEPT AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS IN THE MODERATE RANGE..IN
LINE WITH MUCH OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 543168 545153 546140 546133 545129 543122 539114 534107
      532104 531097 532093 531087 525070 522062 521054 519041
      519027 518017 518012 516007 513004 510003 506003 504006
      501011 501023 499048 499057 500061 502072 504082 506093
      507112 508118 507124 503124 502130 501143 499146 499152
      500173 502182 503191 504197 503204 500207 496207 483206
      478207 475209 469212 464215 458216 455218 453221 457222
      460221 469223 476223 479222 484223 488225 490228 493233
      496241 499244 501248 501251 499250 496250 494247 492243
      489240 485242 482242 481239 476235 473239 474242 477245
      480249 484251 487259 490266 494273 499280 501283 504284
      507281 510281 514277 516272 518271 521268 521262 518253
      517248 516243 516230 518218 519213 521216 527216 529218
      532216 535214 536210 538207 538199 540186 541175 543168
 0.01 541896 540881 536875 530875 524880 518862 518850 518845
      516840 514835 512834 509832 505833 501833 499829 491830
      485836 479839 473845 468851 460864 457871 457884 463889
      463895 464898 466903 465908 462911 461915 459935 459943
      460947 460954 462957 469959 474963 484963 491961 504955
      511952 517948 522947 524945 527944 529941 531939 533931
      530920 536907 539901 541896
 0.01 487745 486734 484728 483723 482721 479719 476717 472713
      466719 458726 453736 448746 442755 436765 433771 430774
      426779 422781 419784 414786 403791 392795 388794 382795
      374800 370795 368788 365778 362771 358770 353764 350762
      348763 344764 340767 337771 332776 329780 322787 315796
      305800 293802 287802 284801 273799 266798 264794 258794
      251796 242800 239805 238810 241819 244823 250824 255824
      257826 268832 275838 277842 279845 279849 277860 273871
      272877 272883 271890 271896 271908 272936 272953 273966
      276971 281973 283974 283978 283983 290987 294981 296975
      298968 300955 300948 301942 302936 304931 307918 311908
      315899 321893 325889 329885 332882 336876 340866 349862
      372856 380850 386844 395835 403829 412824 418818 426809
      436806 442805 446805 451804 453801 460793 466786 475778
      481766 485755 487745
 0.01 460237 458236 457236 455235 453235 451237 453238 454238
      455238 456237 458237 460238 460237
 0.01 451102 451099 448099 443098 437105 436110 434114 434117
      436115 437119 439121 439124 437130 434133 432138 431144
      429151 427153 423157 423152 424138 425127 427122 427117
      416103 413091 411085 413078 417066 415058 413054 410051
      402048 396047 391048 385048 381046 373040 370032 365021
      355020 349026 343026 341023 335023 329024 321029 321031
      326031 336028 339028 341030 344035 346041 344044 345046
      348049 350053 353062 356066 360067 362067 364064 369065
      373069 374073 375082 386084 391083 396084 403085 404089
      402093 397101 391108 383113 378116 376120 373124 372132
      380131 384129 389128 392127 395130 395134 393137 390142
      388146 385150 379155 382157 386155 388153 391155 394159
      391164 388165 378164 373165 369165 363173 361177 361183
      363189 366193 371200 374205 375212 377216 380218 387217
      391214 395212 400212 405215 409214 413217 416215 419210
      418206 421203 424188 425180 428176 429171 428166 429159
      431155 434155 437158 441157 443153 445148 444139 445134
      446126 445118 446111 451102
 0.01 444723 443720 440720 438719 434719 431720 428721 426724
      426727 425729 425734 427734 431734 434733 438732 440731
      442728 443725 444723
 0.01 422680 421668 420663 416662 411665 406670 397684 392697
      390706 387712 383719 382729 385733 390737 396733 400728
      404721 407713 414700 417693 420685 422680
 0.01 412231 412228 411225 407224 405225 402224 398223 395223
      394226 396227 397229 401231 404232 406231 410231 412231
 0.01 336056 334055 332053 330053 329053 327053 325055 326057
      327057 328057 330058 332058 334058 336056 336056
 0.01 320099 318092 314086 310080 305076 298072 293067 294062
      291060 287060 283057 279053 273054 269045 270036 271025
      273018 270010 267004 264001 262000 257000 255001 249005
      245011 241011 238013 235019 235025 236028 238034 239039
      238043 236051 233057 234065 240077 243084 247089 261096
      269098 277099 292097 302098 309100 316101 320099
 0.25 525193 524187 524181 521178 518177 514180 512180 511182
      511186 513189 515190 516195 519201 522199 524193 525193
 0.25 512258 512255 512252 510253 510254 510255 511257 511258
      512258
 0.25 519151 518148 518147 517145 516144 515144 513143 511144
      510143 509144 508146 509149 511150 512150 514151 515153
      516153 517153 519151
 0.25 498229 497226 496225 495226 496226 496228 497229 498229
 0.25 516929 515921 511916 508911 504906 501901 497898 493898
      490897 485901 482906 479912 474922 473927 473932 476939
      479943 484946 495947 500945 505942 509939 513934 516929
 0.25 497873 496869 494867 492865 489866 486869 481873 478877
      475885 475890 478891 482890 486886 490884 494878 497873
 0.25 457766 456764 455763 454764 453765 452766 452767 451770
      451771 450772 451774 452774 453775 454774 456772 456771
      456769 457766 457766
 0.25 411692 412690 412687 411685 410684 408685 407686 406686
      405687 404689 404690 403692 403694 402697 402699 403701
      404702 406702 407700 409698 409697 410695 411692 411692
 0.25 412197 412193 413188 411186 409184 407184 404186 403188
      401191 401194 402197 404198 406201 407203 408201 410199
      412197
 0.25 390199 389197 388194 385191 384188 382187 378187 376187
      375191 377194 378196 380199 382200 385202 388201 390199
 0.25 351804 352797 351791 348782 345778 340777 332782 322793
      311805 307808 302810 295811 285811 279811 275813 275818
      277820 286821 291821 293825 291833 285850 283859 281869
      280879 281890 281903 284912 290928 293932 295930 295927
      296918 298908 300899 303889 307882 312875 317871 325866
      331861 334852 338847 341842 343838 345829 348824 349817
      351804
 0.25 283086 283082 282080 278077 273073 269069 262060 256051
      252047 249047 242056 240061 241068 243072 247076 256083
      269087 275088 280088 283086
 0.50 499924 499921 499919 497919 495920 494921 493922 492922
      491924 490924 490927 491928 492929 493929 494930 496929
      497927 498926 499924 499924
 0.50 347798 346788 344783 340782 336783 331787 316804 307813
      304819 302825 296835 293841 291847 287859 285873 284882
      284890 285900 286904 288904 292901 295896 298890 301884
      303878 306873 310868 315865 320862 324858 329852 331848
      333840 335834 340823 345811 347798
 0.50 269079 268075 265070 263068 260065 257063 253060 251059
      248060 247064 249068 251072 253075 256077 261080 266080
      269079
 1.00 342794 341789 338788 333791 328796 323801 318807 313812
      312816 314819 321821 328819 333813 336806 339799 342794
 1.00 308858 308854 306852 303847 300847 298850 295855 293861
      292868 291874 292881 296878 299873 303869 306863 308858
 1.50 328807 328805 327805 325805 324805 324806 322807 321808
      320808 319810 318810 318813 319815 321815 322814 323814
      324813 326812 326811 327809 327808 328807

$$





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