Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160826
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 16/1200 UTC THRU APR 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE WAA PCPN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PD.  INCRSG SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVRNGT WED
INTO THU MRNG AS MORE SGFNT SHRTWV TROF APCHS THE COAST.  MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING PLACEMENT AND BASICALLY OPTED FOR
A SOLUTION THAT SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE AGGRESSIVE UKMET AND
LGTR GFS CONCERNING TOTALS.

...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING N CNTRL U.S. SHRTWV TROF...

UPPER TROF CURRENTLY EXITING THE NRN ROCKIES IS FCST TO AMPLIFY
WITH TIME RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS SFC LO MOVG ACROSS THE N CNTRL
U.S. THRU THE PD.  MSTR SUPPLY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND THEREFORE EXPECT MOST PCPN TO FALL TO THE LEFT OF THE
SFC LO TRACK WHERE STG ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES WILL TAKE
PLACE ASOCTD WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.  HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THE VERT LIFT BEING GENERATED AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME MDT TO HVY PCPN
TOTALS.  TNGTS MODEL QPFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ACCORD WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND UKMET TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER WWD WITH THE PCPN MAX FM
PRIOR RUNS.  TNGTS GEM REGIONAL SPLIT THE MINOR DIFFERENCE BTWN
THE SLIGHTLY MORE ERN GFS SCENARIO AND THE SLOWER UKMET AND USED
THAT AVG FOR THE PRELIM DAY1 PLACEMENT DETAILS.

MEANWHILE...A REGION OF INTENSE VERT MOTION ASOCTD WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND ANOTHER PIECE OF SHRTWV
ENERGY ADVANCING SEWD THRU THE S CNTRL ROCKIES BY WED EVNG SHOULD
FIRE PCPN BEHIND THE TRAILING CDFNT WHICH WILL HAVE WORKED SWD
THRU THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CNTRL PLAINS.  MODEL QPFS PICK
UPON THIS OCCURRENCE NICELY WITH THEIR QPFS IN VRY GOOD ACCORD
CONCERNING BOTH PLACEMENT AND TOTALS.  SPLIT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF ACTVTY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS OVRNGT ON WED.

...FL...

LLVL ELYS..FRONTAL BAND AND FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCTD SHWR ACTVTY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

DAY 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...

A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
FRIDAY BEFORE WANING.  OTHER THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND A FASTER AND
SLIGHTLY FLATTER SOLUTION.  THUS...USED A COMBINATION OF THE
NAM/ECMWF/SREF MEAN TO DERIVE MOST OF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS.

...GREAT LAKES INTO THE S. PLAINS...

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY A DECAYING
FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW...HIGH-BASED...AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN RELATIVELY POOR LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  USED A
COMBINATION OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO DERIVE THE TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT VALUES THAT AVERAGE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS IN MOST PLACES.


...SOUTHEAST...

ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG A
SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODEL PROJECTIONS INCLUDE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND 2M
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED AND HIGHER LEVEL
BASED CAPES OF 500 TO 1250 J/KG...SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION WHERE
SUFFICIENT ASCENT IS PROVIDED.  THESE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SUPPORT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...PRIMARILY WHERE THE
FRONT LIES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE INTERMEDIATE GUIDANCE THAT
INCLUDES THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO
DERIVE THE FINAL TOTALS...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED FROM GUIDANCE THAT HAS RECENTLY TRENDED
SLOWER.  BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS FOR A 24-HOUR PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
PLUS EXPECTED.

KORTY/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 464622 472625 475631 477636 478643 477648 473657 467666
      463670 460672 456676 451678 447681 442682 424691 415696
      405698 401695 400690 401685 404680 408672 414665 428651
      443637 448631 455625
 0.01 539211 536173 532165 528162 522149 520143 525137 524129
      522120 511092 501062 498056 496054 493053 487065 485073
      482077 473071 465070 462067 461064 456056 455052 456049
      460047 460043 460037 459033 455019 455013 456010 457006
      458003 461995 464990 471974 473968 475958 477940 480933
      486930 491927 495920 498914 500906 500901 498893 495885
      493880 493875 491866 490852 487834 482819 478814 476812
      473812 465814 461815 459817 453830 451836 452846 451849
      448852 444853 443856 433876 430914 428921 425930 422946
      422961 420968 420979 421988 423996 423006 426012 426017
      424020 416019 413019 412024 415031 417039 420046 423062
      427066 431071 436076 441079 445085 438087 432093 430092
      428093 429097 431101 432105 434109 437110 440113 441115
      443120 445122 449124 451122 452124 453128 449131 449136
      451141 448143 444148 443151 442157 446162 448165 445169
      446173 448176 448180 445181 444186 450190 454191 459186
      464182 466179 469178 472181 473185 474189 474193 471201
      468207 462206 455211 450213 438216 434218 429223 431227
      433230 434234 428238 426242 426244 430250 434254 439258
      444259 452260 457260 465262 471268 479281 482285 487292
      496300 501300 505299 510296 513291 523262 519255 517246
      515237 514229 510222 505215 503211 503207 506207 508209
      511210 514209 518211 521213 528215 530219 534221 536222
 0.01 408070 396065 397062 399061 403059 406057 404053 400047
      398039 394036 390034 388025 386014 386010 386004 387979
      386966 384963 381963 378970 373978 369984 364991 357995
      351993 347995 345999 346002 348006 353012 356016 357020
      356027 355030 351037 350049 354055 362059 366060 366063
      366067 369069 372080 372084 374088 374098 376100 379099
      380087 386086 385084 385079 388079 390082 393082 395085
      398087 400081 402078 408070
 0.01 396115 396112 392112 387113 380112 378114 376111 373109
      371111 372113 372120 371125 373127 377128 381124 382122
      386123 390119 394117 396115
 0.01 292795 292790 289788 287784 283785 280787 278784 276782
      272783 268783 265785 260789 255795 250799 245804 242811
      242819 242824 245825 250822 255817 259811 263809 267809
      271814 273818 277818 281813 286808 289806 290801 292795
 0.25 518273 519268 519264 517259 513247 511239 509234 505229
      504223 499211 496206 490204 484203 479204 471210 467213
      462213 452216 446223 451227 452231 449236 448240 448244
      452248 458250 469255 474259 478263 483273 486279 490284
      498289 501291 506290 510288 513283 518273
 0.25 493143 493142 493140 492138 491140 492141 493143 493143
 0.25 489131 488130 487129 486128 485128 485131 486131 488132
      489131
 0.25 483902 483894 482886 482876 481867 479860 477854 474853
      472858 467861 461862 454870 451875 450883 449890 448899
      445912 440923 438928 437935 435949 436964 440969 442973
      445979 450979 458971 462967 464962 467949 471936 476922
      481913 483902
 0.25 468105 466102 463100 462098 458096 457093 456091 454090
      452091 451095 453098 455099 457101 460103 461105 465106
      468105
 0.25 452078 452076 451075 451073 450072 448071 448070 447069
      445069 443069 443070 442072 443073 443074 444075 446077
      447077 448078 449078 451078 452078
 0.25 395050 388046 382042 380040 378035 375029 373026 369028
      365034 364043 363047 365051 367053 372054 376054 380056
      383056 386055 393052 395050
 0.25 376006 377003 377001 376999 374000 373001 372003 372005
      372008 372010 372011 374011 375010 376008 376007 376006
 0.25 284798 283796 282795 281796 280796 279797 277797 275797
      274798 272799 274801 276802 277803 278804 278803 279802
      281801 282800 283799 284798
 0.50 515269 515263 514258 510247 507237 503232 501227 498218
      494213 489212 486212 484210 479209 475211 472214 466223
      463220 459221 457222 461225 463227 463231 460235 456235
      454238 457243 461245 471251 478256 484265 489274 495281
      499284 503286 507285 510279 511273 515269 515269
 0.50 499253 499248 497242 494238 492235 491229 487227 483227
      481228 481231 483235 487236 491240 493244 496249 498253
      499253
 0.50 477905 478901 478898 477892 475882 473879 469878 463876
      458878 456881 454890 453899 451908 448917 445925 442932
      445942 448949 448954 452955 455957 457956 461949 464942
      466932 472917 475910 477905
 0.50 383051 383049 381047 378044 376043 373042 369043 369046
      369048 371050 374051 377052 380053 381053 383051
 1.00 504278 504273 502267 497260 492251 488243 486246 483246
      481244 477237 475240 477243 483250 488258 492266 497274
      500277 504278
 1.00 462915 463913 462911 460910 462910 462908 462907 460907
      460908 460910 459913 458913 458915 457917 457918 456920
      457921 458923 459923 460923 461920 462918 462917 462915

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 518278 521269 522258 528244 533230 535216 537202 533195
      530189 527183 525174 523166 519160 514153 509149 503145
      498140 490129 492118 493115 491112 488111 485112 479114
      457127 454129 449128 447125 447120 447114 449112 453105
      455100 454098 452095 450094 442093 436093 429092 429100
      426108 426111 427115 430121 431126 430131 426134 421138
      413149 408166 412173 411184 410188 407191 402195 393203
      392205 392211 393215 396217 401220 404221 404224 400228
      397233 407237 404245 406251 409254 412255 420257 432257
      446256 448255 450258 455266 465275 471279 477282 492288
      498293 507297 512292 516284
 0.01 502865 502848 501838 499832 499824 497818 494813 489810
      485811 482813 478817 475822 460834 459840 458848 453851
      451857 452869 454877 456881 462890 465896 468899 475906
      482912 491916 495916 498911 501899 500880 502865
 0.01 487048 488040 487035 484030 483027 479024 474024 476026
      477032 478037 477042 478047 482048 487048 487048
 0.01 471203 471201 472198 472196 471194 469193 468193 467194
      466197 465197 464199 463199 462201 461203 460205 461206
      462207 464207 466207 467207 468206 469205 470204 471203
 0.01 464807 463797 461795 458795 454798 450804 433826 418846
      403869 397882 393895 387909 385916 384921 382925 381928
      378929 372931 368934 362934 359934 357936 353941 344952
      338955 332954 329954 326956 325956 323960 321966 321977
      323983 328987 339993 340002 344005 349009 352015 356020
      360021 363020 372011 376011 378013 383013 387007 387997
      388991 389986 391979 394971 395964 395954 395949 396945
      398938 402933 402926 405919 413908 417895 422888 423886
      423881 426874 430869 433862 436857 443846 447841 451836
      460822 463815 464807
 0.01 397182 397180 398178 396177 394177 392176 392177 392179
      391181 391183 391184 393186 395186 395184 397182 397182
 0.01 352875 352867 349866 337867 332867 327865 324865 323862
      320855 312837 305830 304823 301819 297810 292803 285780
      280779 277782 271788 268792 263793 253798 245804 242813
      240817 241822 244827 249827 253829 254835 250843 246852
      245857 246863 249909 250914 253918 257921 261922 265924
      270923 279917 283915 289916 295921 301920 304918 313911
      317903 320899 324898 333893 342886 347881 352875
 0.25 516270 518261 517254 513242 511235 508230 503220 496212
      491207 487204 478206 469211 459214 449215 440217 436221
      434225 434230 436235 441238 454243 464247 470251 475254
      484260 487265 490270 493275 498279 500285 505287 509285
      512281 516270
 0.25 520199 518193 518187 515176 512171 509167 502161 496154
      490145 473138 465141 457145 454148 451153 450156 450160
      448166 448171 448178 447186 449190 453191 456188 464184
      468180 471179 477181 481183 489188 500192 510195 519201
      520199
 0.25 490886 490879 489874 487869 484867 479866 475867 472870
      471878 473883 475887 478890 483892 487892 489889 490886
 0.25 374988 375984 374981 371978 366977 362978 360983 358987
      357993 356998 357002 360003 364999 366996 369993 372990
      374988
 0.25 307880 301859 299848 299844 297839 291834 286832 280833
      273838 266845 261850 256858 253868 252874 252881 256891
      258903 259908 263910 271906 281904 289898 297898 301898
      302897 304891 306885 307880
 0.25 286810 286804 283800 276797 268796 259799 254805 252808
      253812 252809 249810 249813 253814 256818 265820 268821
      273820 280815 284813 286810
 0.50 515267 515259 514252 509239 503229 497217 492213 488210
      482210 477210 468215 457218 452218 447219 444220 443222
      444225 449227 459227 463228 466227 470223 482225 487228
      491234 492238 490240 485241 481242 477242 477246 485256
      492266 499276 504281 508282 515267
 0.50 502181 503175 500171 496166 490162 482158 473157 470158
      468162 469167 472169 476170 479172 485178 491183 497185
      502181
 0.50 471236 470236 469235 468235 469236 470236 471236
 0.50 300882 301873 299865 293851 288848 280850 272850 265852
      261856 258863 255877 256883 260889 262893 262901 264903
      268903 275900 284893 289890 296887 300882
 0.50 282806 280802 277799 274798 268798 264800 261804 258806
      256810 257813 261815 266815 269814 275813 279811 282808
      282806
 1.00 498232 497226 494223 491219 487215 484214 480214 478214
      477217 481220 486222 489224 492227 495231 498232
 1.00 297874 296868 294864 289856 286854 280855 269857 264862
      260870 259880 261883 265885 273889 278889 283887 290883
      296876 297874
 1.50 294874 294869 293866 288860 285859 280860 271860 266864
      262870 262875 263880 268884 274886 279886 282885 289881
      293876 294874
 2.00 292874 293870 292866 288864 280864 273864 268866 264870
      263874 265877 269880 274883 280884 285882 289879 292874
 3.00 292870 292869 290868 288870 286870 284870 284871 283871
      281872 280873 279874 279875 279877 279878 281878 283878
      285878 287877 288875 289874 290873 291872 292871 292870
 3.00 272873 270872 269872 268871 267872 268874 270874 272874
      272873

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 533203 535188 531180 526173 524171 522166 517159 511152
      500142 495137 488135 483130 480127 477126 474130 469129
      467125 466120 471115 478112 482113 486111 490111 492106
      488100 486096 488093 490089 493087 500082 504067 508061
      513056 516052 518052 519054 524057 527058 530055 536048
      539039 540035 540027 537016 533008 529001 524995 520988
      515982 504970 499965 494961 482952 475952 469957 465962
      465970 465974 467979 470984 475992 483005 484007 482009
      480011 475016 473021 473024 474029 474033 472036 469038
      467036 464035 459035 457037 453044 452048 448050 447055
      445060 440067 434071 435075 437079 445080 445085 442086
      438087 435090 429094 425101 419102 414101 410099 408096
      407099 403101 402104 399108 397111 393112 386111 380112
      376116 373124 372131 374132 377131 380128 383124 386122
      393118 399118 401120 404119 408119 413118 415116 419116
      422115 421119 415126 414129 413136 414139 411138 408135
      403134 396133 391139 387138 384139 384143 385146 392151
      393155 392158 389162 380173 378172 377169 376164 378157
      380153 381150 382145 377141 372149 365152 359156 364160
      365164 363169 361172 357173 354174 353178 353184 355186
      370196 379206 383205 388206 389202 389199 386189 385185
      387180 389176 393175 396175 401173 402171 400167 405164
      410157 415157 418164 415175 410182 407187 407190 409193
      412191 416185 422179 423175 423170 425159 424150 427142
      429137 432136 436138 437141 438147 437153 441159 444167
      447175 452177 454177 455174 454170 456165 461164 464167
      467170 471172 479173 487176 490179 492184 493188 493195
      495205 500212 503215 507216 511212 507203 506199 508197
      513195 519193 525198 533203
 0.01 491224 493218 493212 486208 481206 474207 468210 462213
      460216 458219 463225 467225 470223 476221 484224 491224
 0.01 490792 487786 485782 482780 479779 479775 478767 477757
      473751 469748 465753 461758 458764 449775 445780 437782
      430783 427783 425779 433766 442757 454750 462748 464747
      463742 463738 461734 457729 452727 446728 441731 435735
      427746 420759 414772 413779 414788 417792 420795 422793
      423802 422806 419808 411816 407820 404826 403830 403836
      404843 406846 404849 397846 393844 391835 389833 387834
      380838 375841 371846 366848 358850 354853 345855 341855
      338854 332851 328847 327840 331834 336829 343819 349805
      350798 351790 356778 358772 359765 360748 360740 358736
      354728 351726 348726 343729 338734 329744 321752 312761
      308765 305770 301775 295778 288781 283785 280790 273794
      260794 252795 247796 245798 244801 244805 246812 246821
      242826 238838 237842 236850 234864 234874 233877 235880
      243888 252895 265899 279901 289897 301892 308889 314892
      324898 336893 343891 347888 352882 357878 361874 364872
      368872 373875 379875 385874 389870 396866 401867 407871
      409873 412871 421864 424862 426858 427851 436841 445834
      450829 453825 462816 473808 483800 488795 490792
 0.01 443041 443038 443036 441036 440038 439040 440041 441041
      443041 443041
 0.01 381083 382077 382071 377065 373064 370060 368058 367055
      367052 365050 360048 358046 353046 349048 344047 342045
      336044 331043 326043 318043 316048 316052 317056 321059
      329060 339061 348061 353060 355064 359069 365071 366074
      367079 368084 370086 375089 381083
 0.01 360132 361125 358120 354114 349111 344109 342113 343119
      346125 349130 352135 356138 358134 360132
 0.01 343100 344094 343089 341086 338082 336080 332079 329083
      331088 332092 332099 336100 339104 341104 343100
 0.01 323104 323098 322095 318092 315090 311092 309094 305097
      304102 306106 307111 311112 315112 319108 321106 323104
 0.25 456113 457108 456105 455101 453100 450099 446099 444100
      442103 442106 442108 443112 445114 447116 450118 452117
      454115 456113
 0.25 375186 374184 374182 372181 370180 368180 367179 365179
      364179 364182 366183 368184 370185 371186 372186 373187
      375187 375186
 0.25 352764 351751 349746 345744 339746 336749 329754 316767
      305778 291791 284798 278801 269806 261811 255816 252824
      249834 245843 243851 243857 243863 246873 251881 257886
      265889 272890 277889 283888 287886 293881 301876 311873
      315871 318868 317862 315858 312850 312843 315840 321834
      332820 337813 342804 348787 351775 352764
 0.25 264802 263800 259800 255801 254802 250804 249806 250810
      251813 253812 256810 258807 260806 263805 264802
 0.50 348774 347767 346764 344760 341757 337756 333758 327763
      320768 314773 303784 281804 267814 261819 258824 252841
      249849 249857 251866 255873 259877 267881 272881 277881
      285878 297870 301867 304864 305860 305854 306846 311839
      332816 336809 340802 345786 348779 348774
 1.00 341781 339774 334770 327772 321776 311784 302792 293801
      282808 273816 268820 265825 260838 259846 259854 260862
      263868 268872 274875 281873 286869 295859 300848 306837
      324818 332808 337797 340788 341781
 1.50 334796 334787 331781 327781 321783 312789 304796 300800
      296803 293807 287810 278815 271822 268826 266832 265837
      266845 267851 267857 268861 271866 277868 282867 286863
      289858 291853 294849 300840 306831 314825 322817 328809
      334796
 2.00 329798 329792 325788 319790 305800 293812 284816 277821
      272826 270831 270837 272849 272856 273861 276863 281863
      284861 286857 289849 295843 304829 317818 324812 327805
      329798
 3.00 323806 323802 322799 318799 314800 310803 307805 304810
      303814 306818 310818 314816 317813 320810 322808 323806
 3.00 297830 296824 294822 289822 285823 282826 279830 279836
      279840 281843 286842 290840 293837 295834 297830

$$





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