Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 17/1200 UTC THRU AUG 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT...WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST AND A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN. ALSO WILL HAVE STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH PWATS ALSO ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING IS MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE...WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME CONVECTION
LATER IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
CHECK. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUS PWATS IN
PLACE...WOULD STILL EXPECT TO SEE POCKETS OF LOCALIZED 1-3"
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MI. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
IN/OH/KY WE ARE MORE REMOVED FROM THE BETTER FORCING...WHICH MAY
TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
AREAL AVERAGED AMOUNTS LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1.5". WPC QPF WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE 0Z HRW ARW/NSSL WRF/NAM NEST AND RECENT HRRR RUNS.

...VA/NC/SC...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC. ACROSS VA MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE APPROACH OF A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING FROM WV INTO VA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS NC/SC A COASTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL NC AS WELL. SC/NC WILL FEEL THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO
THE NORTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
OVER THESE AREAS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH THE DAY AS
WELL...GENERALLY TO 2"+ BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WHILE THE COVERAGE
OF HIGHER TOTALS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN A LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM...ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED 2-4" AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC/SC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE
HIGHER TOTALS FROM NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC.

...PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

AS OF 06Z THURSDAY A CONVECTIVE LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OK INTO AR AND NORTH TX. WOULD APPEAR THAT THE NSSL WRF WAS DOING
THE BEST JOB CAPTURING THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THUS WPC TRENDED OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE NSSL SOLUTION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN AR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THINK THE
LINE SHOULD GENERALLY BE PROGRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK MAY HANG UP FOR A BIT AND RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHEAST
TX. IN GENERAL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH EXACTLY WHERE THIS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...BUT GIVEN ITS
HANDLING OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...AGAIN PREFER SOMETHING CLOSER
TO THE NSSL WRF. THIS POINTS TOWARDS CENTRAL TX AS THE MOST
PROBABLE LOCATION. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY THINK THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR A PERIOD. ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK
OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND WEAK FLOW OVERALL WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ORGANIZATION TO BE LONG LIVED. THUS AGAIN THINKING JUST LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ALSO LIKELY TO HAVE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
ORGANIZED ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BECOME. WOULD STILL APPEAR
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX IS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. IT IS HERE WHERE WE SHOULD END
UP WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
JET DYNAMICS. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA.
THIS CONVERGENCE IS USUALLY A PRECURSOR TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AND MAY BE THE REASON WHY THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL NOT THAT ROBUST WITH QPF AMOUNTS. ALSO ADD IN THAT PWAT
VALUES ARE ONLY NEAR AVERAGE...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY STAY MOVING. THUS DO HAVE MANY FACTORS
POINTING TOWARDS MORE SMALLER SCALE PROGRESSIVE DISCRETE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND THE PERSISTENT
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS FORECAST INTO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY..COMBINED WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS...DOES SUGGEST THAT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
THUS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THAT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD DOWN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT A
RATHER ANOMALOUS POOLING OF MOISTURE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 2 TO 2.25 INCHES. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS BANDS OR
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORES...AND
SOME RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A TAD UNDERDONE
WITH THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FRONT
WILL BE ARRIVING NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RUNOFF AND/OR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
BY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...BUT MAY STILL BE CLIPPING PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO FARTHER SOUTH...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AND
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
AND DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODELS SHOW AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED BRING A NEW BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY THE LEVEL OF
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INTERACT WITH. SO THESE
ADDITIONAL RAINS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A 0.50
INCH.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AT LEAST A TROUGH IF NOT A WEAK COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A PROGRESSIVE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS ENERGY. HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND ALSO
POSSIBLY ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO AND DOWN
ACROSS WESTERN AR. THE MODELS LED IN PARTICULAR BY THE 00Z GFS
SUPPORT A ROBUST MCS DEVELOPING AS ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AND THE POOLING OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL BE
ATTEMPTING TO RETURN NORTH. THE THINKING IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAY BE FOCUSING THEIR HEAVIEST RAINFALL A TAD TOO FAR NORTH AS ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TEND TO DROP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

IN ANY CASE...HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND INTO WESTERN AR WITH AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED HERE AS A RESULT
WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ELEVATED CONSIDERING THE WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS WILL LIKELY DROP
SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MS AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA
WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A FRONT WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THE MODELS EJECT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION...AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION UP TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME
STRONGER SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NE AND NORTHERN KS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINS MAY MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE NOT
TOO WET HERE.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION/GREAT BASIN...

THE MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH GRADUALLY
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW A MUCH DEEPER SURGE OF
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MAINLAND
MEXICO BY LATER FRIDAY AND THEN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CHANNEL NORTH UP ACROSS AREAS OF FAR SOUTHWEST TX
AND MUCH OF EASTERN AZ...NM AND SOUTHERN CO BY SUNDAY. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE NOTED BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL CA. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND ADJACENT SIERRA-NEVADA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO TEND
TO BE MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED  LOW. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
TEND TO BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHERN NM WHERE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...LED ESPECIALLY BY THE 00Z GFS...SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME MCS ACTIVITY OVER
THESE AREAS ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO AS MID LEVEL VORT
ENERGY LIFTS NORTH AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WITH AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS OF FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHERN NM.

...SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS...

THE MODELS SUGGEST AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THESE
AREAS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND ALSO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL POOL OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
AND BRING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME 2
TO 3+ INCH AMOUNTS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

CHENARD/ORRISON


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 521010 521001 518998 510991 498976 493969 488966 483966
      468956 460961 456962 451963 447961 445961 444957 440949
      437946 433947 426952 421959 419961 416961 412961 409965
      405977 405983 407988 412995 412997 409997 403996 400994
      398990 395988 390988 387984 383981 375977 366974 361973
      358975 355983 353989 351991 344995 331004 328005 327002
      329997 333985 336977 337969 339964 342953 347946 352937
      357930 363925 366923 371921 373923 376920 380914 382905
      385894 388884 395875 399878 400880 413878 417875 419873
      420875 419880 420887 420896 421901 423906 424909 426910
      431914 434913 434917 433923 433929 434933 438940 443945
      450950 458954 466952 476949 484948 491942 499934 502924
      505912 507906 508899 509892 511886 510873 511860 511847
      511842 511833 511827 509821 506809 493764 487757 483752
      480747 466737 459733 450730 433726 425724 416723 412722
      408724 400730 394735 389740 383746 378753 379761 376765
      372770 370772 367772 356771 346772 338776 332781 325789
      320796 316802 310808 303806 296804 276800 267798 262790
      256783 252781 249785 243792 241795 239800 239804 240809
      245816 248816 251814 254818 258821 264824 267825 266828
      262829 260832 262835 268840 275843 279845 285844 288844
      290846 292851 293862 295864 298864 301864 302867 304873
      303879 303886 301891 297893 294897 292906 297914 300927
      301940 301943 311993 321011 320030 321032 324032 329031
      334037 346037 350038 353042 357043 360041 363038 368037
      373037 375035 378030 379024 379020 381016 390016 398013
      400016 400020 396021 393025 387034 385038 386043 389045
      391043
 0.01 391043 395032 397027 400025 410026 414024 415019 421018
      426019 432018 435016 438013 442011 447013 446017 440026
      440033 441036 446039 451040 462041 472039 474036 474031
      472026 468023 465021 466019 471020 479025 488028 499029
      507027 514022 519015 521010
 0.01 473989 470985 468981 465977 463974 459972 454974 452976
      450980 451983 452988 455992 458995 463996 468996 472991
      473989
 0.01 399772 399770 399767 397767 396766 395768 395770 396772
      397772 398773 399772
 0.01 357848 347849 344845 343840 348832 349827 349820 348817
      345817 341820 334826 333828 333832 336835 334839 331844
      330846 327846 323846 320849 320855 324864 317869 314873
      312880 311886 312892 314897 317897 320896 323887 327874
      330871 334873 347871 348868 347864 349861 357848
 0.01 322048 320044 316041 312037 311032 310029 307028 304028
      297033 295036 293035 295031 297026 299024 298021 294018
      288016 283015 278015 268011 262010 259012 256018 254023
      255033 263051 269059 275065 284070 294075 298074 300074
      301071 305061 308056 311053 320048 322048
 0.25 502860 502844 500833 497825 494820 492818 489815 488811
      487802 485788 483779 481774 478770 473765 462755 457749
      452744 448737 442737 435742 434746 434752 435759 434763
      436768 433776 432781 427783 415788 412791 408791 405789
      404784 402780 401778 399779 398783 399789 396803 394807
      390806 385806 383818 381821 378821 372826 369831 371840
      370844 371849 371856 369860 368863 366865 363869 363876
      363879 366881 371876 373869 375872 377874 383873 386871
      394860 397858 399853 401845 404847 405853 408862 408868
      414868 420865 424862 427859 433857 436860 438864 443868
      450867 453875 457884 458887 458892 455897 455901 458900
      463906 465911 464918 461925 458933 462934 463940 465944
      468943 474941 484928 493914 497906 500897 501886 500875
      500869 501865 502860
 0.25 472900 472898 470899 469900 468901 468903 468904 470904
      471902 472902 472900
 0.25 433971 432968 431967 430966 429966 428967 428968 428969
      428971 429972 431972 433971
 0.25 410749 410747 409746 408745 406746 405748 406750 406751
      408751 410750 410749
 0.25 418980 417978 417977 416975 416974 414973 412975 411977
      411980 412981 412982 414984 415984 417982 417981 418980
 0.25 402741 402740 400740 398741 397742 397745 399747 399746
      400746 402744 402743 402741
 0.25 387785 387779 386776 381784 381777 377775 373776 370779
      363782 364790 361791 360790 357786 352780 345778 340779
      338781 333787 330794 330799 334801 339801 343799 353806
      357808 360807 367807 372801 376799 378798 381800 383801
      384799 387790 387785
 0.25 390000 390997 389995 389994 387994 386995 385997 386999
      387001 389001 390000
 0.25 374012 371998 367992 362989 358989 357991 353997 349002
      344005 337006 332010 325020 325024 328026 334025 337031
      341030 342028 345028 347030 352029 361025 368025 371019
      374012
 0.25 366892 365889 366887 366885 366883 365881 363882 362883
      361884 360885 360886 359887 359890 360891 360892 362894
      363894 364894 365892 366892
 0.25 358830 358828 358827 357826 357823 358821 356820 354821
      354822 352823 352824 353826 353828 354830 355831 355832
      357833 357832 358830 358830
 0.25 360916 360914 360912 359911 357910 355911 354912 353914
      352916 352919 350921 350922 349923 350924 352924 353924
      355924 356923 357921 358918 359918 360916
 0.25 350910 349902 344899 341900 337904 333908 328906 325902
      322904 322909 323911 321917 319922 316926 313930 311937
      311945 312949 316962 316977 315984 313992 314996 316998
      320999 324996 327990 330979 337954 338947 341941 346932
      346925 346922 344921 340922 338921 338917 348915 350910
 0.25 316911 315909 315911 315913 316911
 0.25 307827 307819 304814 299810 295809 282807 271805 265807
      262807 260805 253808 257813 260817 264819 274824 279828
      283831 288833 293832 294826 299828 304830 307827
 0.25 304038 304036 304035 304034 303033 302034 301035 300036
      299038 298040 297042 297044 298045 300046 302045 302044
      303042 304040 304038 304038
 0.50 497860 497854 495847 490839 484834 479826 477816 475807
      476794 475780 473773 471771 468771 462773 460777 460784
      459791 458796 457801 454804 451803 447804 444802 443797
      443783 450782 453779 452776 451772 453767 455763 455758
      454752 452748 447742 444741 441744 439747 439753 438766
      437770 437775 439781 438784 436787 432793 428798 424796
      422797 416802 410805 406803 402803 400813 389823 385830
      379836 375842 374851 373858 376858 378857 385856 392851
      393840 394835 397832 403827 408826 410829 412831 415831
      418835 417841 416847 414851 411860 411864 413865 417863
      420860 422855 422851 425846 431844 437847 441850 442853
      441857 439861 441863 446863 449861 454862 456865 457872
      458877 461887 463896 467896 469893 468885 469878 471875
      475877 477880 478886 475896 476905 475911 474914 469922
      465927 465931 465935 468938 471939 473938 476934 480927
      484918 489909 493902 496894 497883 496868 497860
 0.50 422820 422815 421813 420808 417808 416810 414814 413816
      414821 415825 417828 419825 420823 422820
 0.50 394828 394826 394824 393826 392828 392829 394829 394828
 0.50 384791 383788 380788 378785 377782 376778 374778 372779
      369781 370786 371790 371792 375794 377795 379793 380790
      383791 384791
 0.50 369012 370005 369001 366996 362994 358997 355000 354005
      354010 356016 359016 362016 365016 369014 369012
 0.50 355786 353782 350780 345780 340781 337784 335787 332791
      332796 335798 339797 343795 348794 351793 355793 355788
      355786
 0.50 356025 356022 356020 356018 354019 353020 352021 352022
      352023 354024 356025 356025
 0.50 344013 342011 338011 334011 333013 331014 329018 328021
      330022 334022 337021 340020 341017 343015 344013
 0.50 341934 341930 338929 332926 329924 326925 325934 322939
      316939 317949 319956 319962 318971 317981 315988 315994
      319996 322995 325989 327982 329974 332967 335952 337943
      339939 341934
 0.50 301823 298813 295811 291812 288810 284808 276809 273812
      271810 267808 265810 262814 263817 271820 279822 288820
      296824 299825 301823
 0.50 260811 261809 260807 259807 258809 258810 259811 260812
      260811
 1.00 491871 492866 491861 488856 484852 480853 475855 470860
      471867 474872 478875 481880 483883 486883 489877 491871
 1.00 479919 480917 479915 478917 477918 476920 475921 475922
      474924 474925 472927 472930 472931 473932 474932 475930
      476929 476927 477925 477924 478922 479921 479919
 1.00 473845 474840 473835 470831 467823 466818 466808 465805
      463803 459808 456813 454818 448819 444820 439823 438831
      438838 442844 446846 451845 455847 460861 467859 469853
      473845
 1.00 463878 463876 462875 462876 462878 463879 463878
 1.00 436816 436813 435812 434811 433811 431811 431812 430814
      430817 429819 429820 427822 425824 427826 429825 431824
      432823 433821 434819 434818 435817 436816
 1.00 408815 407813 405815 404818 406818 406817 407816 408815
 1.00 389840 389838 389836 388833 387833 385833 385834 384835
      383836 382838 382839 381841 381842 380843 379846 381847
      383846 384846 386845 388842 389840
 1.00 375790 375787 374786 374787 374790 375790 375790
 1.00 351789 350787 349786 348785 347784 345783 343784 342784
      340786 340787 340788 340790 342789 344789 345790 346790
      348790 349790 351789
 1.00 340795 340792 340790 339790 337790 335790 334791 333793
      334794 334795 336796 337796 339795 340795
 1.00 336939 335936 331939 329943 327947 324949 323954 323958
      324964 328967 329960 330955 332950 334945 335941 336939
 1.00 325977 325973 324971 323967 322967 321969 320973 319977
      319981 318984 317988 318992 321993 322990 322986 323984
      324980 325977
 1.00 295815 293814 292815 290814 289814 288812 287812 286810
      284812 284813 286814 288816 289818 290819 292819 294818
      295817 295816 295815
 1.00 278815 278813 277811 275812 274814 274816 275816 277816
      278815
 1.00 269816 268814 266817 268817 269816
 1.50 481869 482867 482864 481862 480861 480859 479858 477858
      475860 474862 474865 475867 476868 477869 479870 481870
      481869
 1.50 466841 465839 464838 464839 463841 462841 462844 462846
      463847 463846 464845 466844 466842 466841
 1.50 463854 463851 462851 461852 461854 461856 462857 462856
      463854 463854
 1.50 444841 445839 445836 444834 444831 443831 441831 441832
      441834 441837 442839 442840 443841 444842 444841
 1.50 387840 387838 386836 385836 385838 384840 384841 386841
      387840
 1.50 321979 322977 322975 321974 320975 320977 321979 321981
      321979

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 535206 533195 534189 533184 534177 533171 533165 535160
      535153 535147 535134 536126 534122 530116 525115 522116
      519118 517122 516127 515134 516143 518148 517155 514155
      513158 514166 515170 515172 510172 508174 507182 510191
      520204 527209 534207 535206
 0.01 518265 517259 514255 512252 511247 508235 505232 502228
      498219 495217 490215 488218 489224 493233 497242 499245
      500251 497253 495248 489242 486243 486248 487254 489257
      492261 494266 497273 503282 506286 509283 508277 505272
      506266 509264 514268 518265
 0.01 536867 536860 533854 531847 531843 532841 531825 531816
      530807 530796 530789 530779 528773 527764 525760 521752
      516742 515733 513727 506702 503695 498689 488676 485671
      482667 475661 467657 463656 459655 448658 442660 435663
      432666 426669 423671 417673 413676 410680 405688 395702
      390708 384714 373725 365732 358738 344752 319780 305793
      302797 299799 290797 283795 280794 276794 267794 264795
      259796 253798 250801 244802 241805 240815 237825 238832
      240835 244845 250854 252858 255861 269867 276870 281874
      283887 284893 287898 292901 298896 300909 301914 303919
      304926 307930 313937 317945 319950 325952 329955 332958
      334969 340986 338995 338006 340012 342016 345021 345028
      348035 349042 351044 355047 356053 357056 360056 364055
      375055 378056 381058 381060 379062 375063 371063 371066
      373070 374076 375082 378082 381081 382079 385075 389068
      396061 397057 395054 390045 388045 385049 382050 379049
      376048 374046 372046 371042 370038 371035 374030 378027
      381026 381023 379019 375010 375003 373997 372995 374992
      378990 386984 389981 394980 402977 420969 423967 428966
      431966 433971 438976 441978 445976 454976 458977 462979
      465979 469976 473977 478978 482977 484972 487968 494968
      499965 502961 506957 507952 507947 504944 494944 489944
      485942 480944 475944 471942 467941 462940 459937 454930
      448924 443919 440911 435902 433897 433889 431874 429870
      430864 431859 430854 428847 425843 421841 417843 413841
      410837 405840 403844 399854 398858 395861 392871 383886
      381893 379896 376899 366903 362905 356904 348898 340895
      336896 332899 330901 328900 330893 343880 345873 347868
      351865 360848 367842 371834 381823 383818 386816 393810
 0.01 393810 395806 402804 405802 410801 414796 420795 429798
      432799 432804 433808 431811 430819 432821 436823 442822
      445825 446829 445831 442845 442853 445856 451855 457856
      461858 463863 466868 471869 474873 478875 484884 491889
      501893 506894 510895 527887 531883 533877 536867
 0.01 416227 415222 411221 408223 405224 400225 396225 394225
      393228 395232 400233 404233 408230 412229 416227 416227
 0.01 407215 408210 406208 401205 394202 390199 385195 382190
      380185 377180 366181 360182 360185 364189 370192 376195
      380199 384203 390206 394210 400213 403217 407215
 0.01 411105 409101 407098 402104 397102 391101 388103 386104
      385106 383113 380114 374120 371123 371129 375136 377141
      377147 374152 371162 371165 374166 378167 381170 384170
      387166 390162 392157 394154 394149 392144 395140 396136
      394132 391127 392120 399115 407113 407110 409108 411105
 0.01 347833 346832 344832 343834 342834 341836 343838 344837
      346836 346835 347833
 0.01 342100 342094 342089 343087 340082 338078 336075 331074
      327076 326081 328084 331088 333092 334096 338098 341100
      342100
 0.01 338056 336053 332051 328049 324046 322043 321039 322029
      319026 316027 307028 304021 302019 298018 292018 290014
      284009 275008 272006 267006 260001 257000 253002 252005
      252010 255016 261022 265024 265029 261034 258037 255038
      249043 248048 247054 247059 248062 251069 255077 258085
      267092 274097 279098 282101 294102 299101 301099 304087
      307087 309088 315090 323072 326070 326067 321063 321060
      325059 332060 338056
 0.01 231987 237990 244989 251990 257988 264985 272984 274982
      273980 268976 259975 253978 244979 235979 231979
 0.25 524195 525192 524190 523189 522188 521189 520191 521194
      523196 524195
 0.25 523826 519808 515792 510778 507769 506763 508757 510750
      508743 506737 502731 498728 493726 490726 485725 480721
      474709 469703 466697 462693 457690 455687 456685 459679
      461674 459667 455665 448666 435672 424681 415689 406698
      397709 390720 387724 382727 377730 374733 366741 361745
      360748 361753 355757 349760 343763 339768 330777 317792
      308800 299806 294810 286811 278812 271812 264811 261814
      263818 271826 278834 285839 288845 289852 291856 292861
      291864 290873 290878 291883 292887 295889 298887 301881
      303872 305871 306874 306882 305896 310907 310916 310921
      312924 314927 318928 320926 321918 321909 321900 323893
      325885 324880 321878 318877 317874 317866 317857 319852
      320846 322838 322833 320830 320825 323819 326814 331809
      335806 342803 347800 349801 351805 354804 356802 360798
      364795 367791 373783 377782 380780 385776 395770 408766
      413762 419758 423757 426758 432760 437760 443757 449758
      453761 455768 456776 457783 459789 466802 469809 470818
      472839 475847 478853 486862 490866 495868 504871 512871
      517869 521865 523860 521839 523826
 0.25 505244 504241 503241 504242 505244 505244
 0.25 449952 449946 447942 442936 432923 431919 430912 427905
      426898 426891 424881 421872 418868 414869 411872 409876
      407885 408890 410894 415900 418902 419907 419916 420921
      422925 424929 424935 426945 427950 431950 435949 438951
      440952 445953 449952
 0.25 407924 408918 407913 401913 397915 395917 391923 387931
      384938 381945 383949 384949 389944 395940 398933 400929
      403926 407924
 0.25 377958 376954 374950 370943 366936 360932 352928 347923
      341917 338916 335918 332920 330925 329934 334942 336951
      339960 341969 342973 344976 347979 352980 358985 361986
      365985 372981 375978 375974 376963 377958
 0.25 312052 313049 310047 311043 310039 308036 306035 303036
      302038 300042 302046 304047 307049 309049 312052 312052
 0.25 308070 309065 307062 303062 296059 292055 287051 282048
      267045 263049 261051 260055 259065 260072 263078 267083
      271087 276090 283090 289089 294089 296086 299082 303075
      307071 308070
 0.50 519829 519824 519820 516814 511807 508804 505800 501788
      497778 491770 484763 481761 477760 473764 472770 475780
      480794 482807 483814 482819 480829 481838 482844 487851
      491855 495857 504858 507856 511851 513847 513840 517834
      519829
 0.50 464743 464735 462728 460724 458725 454726 454721 453712
      443697 441689 447683 453677 454673 453670 449670 445671
      439674 432679 425685 420690 414696 408702 403708 399715
      397724 395733 389740 379750 369764 367768 367773 370775
      373776 377777 380774 388770 400760 404759 407755 412749
      418743 425740 430739 433741 436741 438738 443731 445729
      447727 449729 452737 455742 460745 463744 464743
 0.50 370974 369967 370961 370956 370953 367947 364942 361938
      351932 343924 337923 334928 334932 335937 337943 339950
      341956 345968 353975 358978 364980 369977 370974
 0.50 354782 353772 348770 342772 333778 327784 320793 314799
      305805 300813 279820 293830 294834 297838 301839 304833
      305829 310825 317819 329803 332800 338797 346793 354782
 0.50 318896 318892 316890 313892 311897 311901 313906 315911
      316915 317917 317911 318905 318898 318896
 0.50 309041 308039 306039 305040 306042 308042 309041
 0.50 297069 293062 283061 277059 275057 269051 265054 264058
      263070 265074 268077 273083 277086 280086 288084 292082
      294079 297069
 1.00 431706 429695 429691 425693 424699 422702 415708 409716
      405724 405731 406738 409741 414734 420727 424720 429712
      431706
 1.00 398754 398751 394751 391753 389755 387757 386760 384762
      385764 388763 390762 393760 395758 397756 398754
 1.00 384765 383764 381765 380766 380767 379769 380769 382768
      383767 384765
 1.00 363967 364961 363956 360949 356943 351938 346933 343931
      339932 339939 341947 344956 346959 348961 354967 359971
      363967
 1.00 285076 287072 286069 282068 278067 277067 273065 270066
      270071 271073 273075 274077 277080 279080 281079 284078
      285076
 1.50 360961 359956 359954 357950 355947 354945 350945 347945
      345943 344947 345950 346953 348955 350956 352958 354961
      355963 359963 360961

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 528178 529175 529172 528171 527170 526169 525168 524167
      522167 522168 521170 521173 522174 522176 523177 524178
      526178 528178 528178
 0.01 523197 522192 519188 517184 516179 513174 510171 507169
      505171 504179 505184 507188 511191 515193 519195 522198
      523197
 0.01 535944 534934 532929 530927 519928 517928 515925 517921
      516916 514914 510911 508910 495915 464927 458930 451934
      440942 435946 428948 419950 411952 407952 404951 398952
      391958 387965 384974 382981 380992 377997 376001 373005
      369007 366011 362017 357022 355025 351026 345028 341032
      336033 331033 327031 324031 321033 316038 310034 306029
      303027 297027 290027 286028 285026 281024 276019 261015
      257018 257027 260034 256042 256046 257051 255056 252057
      248060 248062 249071 252077 256082 259084 261088 264090
      265096 267097 272099 273102 276103 283108 290112 293113
      297114 299115 302114 305113 320111 323108 326109 332110
      336112 338128 346132 353135 359136 360134 363132 366131
      372134 375136 378135 381132 383133 383136 381140 381143
      383147 383153 381161 383165 378171 376174 376179 375183
      369182 364181 361183 359184 360186 365188 368191 374195
      379200 393208 396211 401211 401206 397203 394201 397199
      402198 411199 413197 412193 409191 406191 399193 394192
      388190 386182 381178 386171 389170 389174 392177 393174
      394168 396163 402158 406156 408153 408149 406145 404141
      409140 412139 416140 423141 423138 418136 407131 406126
      407119 408113 410110 412105 411100 406095 404098 403102
      401102 398098 398092 395089 400083 409069 407065 407062
      409059 412050 410042 408035 413032 418032 421034 426035
      430038 436042 441043 443041 445038 445033 448029 450029
      453026 456024 458020 457017 450014 446014 442016 437016
      434014 424004 420003 417006 414007 412006 413003 422992
      428985 434978 444971 457963 472958 482957 491957 493955
      497955 505955 520950 524948 529947 535944
 0.01 516701 510679 505665 500656 473638 465637 460637 455639
      449640 443641 431645 418657 408670 394682 380697 369711
      365717 358725 353732 346738 340746 336754 328770 322778
      317785 314792 307798 297804 293801 290797 256790 247794
      241801 239804 238811 238815 239820 243823 247824 254830
      262832 268832 271833 276832 280834 285834 288837 290842
      292847 287854 288866 289878 287888 286898 284903 284908
      286919 289927 294934 297938 299943 301947 305950 319952
      322950 324950 326955 330964 332968 335973 333979 333984
      337992 340997 340004 339017 342020 347020 351018 352013
      353009 355005 353001 354998 356992 356985 354981 354969
      348961 346958 345952 347947 346941 344937 343931 343917
      338907 333899 331895 328891 323886 320882 319877 320866
      321853 322847 324843 327835 330826 335817 337812 341809
      344800 349793 369761 374754 380749 397740 413730 421722
      424717 426712 433713 434717 433720 431725 432732 437738
      432744 429748 427752 424757 417759 413761 411765 411772
      410777 408782 404785 397791 391796 389799 390803 391805
      395806 398811 399814 398816 396823 392832 388840 385852
      378866 376887 379891 383890 388881 390877 393874 396871
      400869 405869 409869 410871 413872 416868 419870 425870
      428869 428867 430862 430857 431855 435850 441842 449840
      452836 452833 450831 448829 443829 439828 436825 434805
      433796 434790 436785 437779 439772 440769 442765 445764
      447767 452792 454798 455806 458818 461827 466835 469839
      473841 478843 483842 490838 492826 493820 498819 501816
      505816
 0.01 505816 511810 512808 513801 513797 514793 515783 515770
      513757 512753 511747 507740 511734 513725 515714 515704
      516701
 0.01 512160 512157 512156 511154 509153 508151 506150 506151
      505153 506154 507156 507157 508159 510160 512160 512160
 0.01 503228 502225 501221 500218 499214 497212 494211 493215
      492220 492224 493227 493231 496234 497234 499232 500230
      503228
 0.01 473056 473051 472048 470043 469038 467037 465035 462034
      457035 455037 454042 454047 456049 457052 457057 457062
      459063 461065 464065 468063 471058 473056
 0.01 389102 387098 383096 377101 371096 365101 360096 357094
      355093 352094 351097 350103 352108 355112 358114 363116
      369117 372115 376112 384109 387107 389102
 0.25 475677 473672 470668 468662 472658 467651 461646 451645
      446645 441647 434652 426659 413674 410677 409682 407686
      404689 397696 389703 375715 369722 363731 357737 349742
      343750 337760 333767 329774 319791 314798 307805 305808
      305814 305822 305828 301838 299846 299859 300867 299873
      295880 291889 290896 290902 291910 293914 297922 300926
      305927 320938 325936 329933 328928 326923 324919 320919
      317915 316909 314906 308901 305897 304893 305886 305881
      305873 308861 313853 316844 322825 342794 347787 352778
      357769 361759 362754 361751 363747 367743 373738 382732
      414709 420702 426693 428689 433687 438686 442687 449694
      451701 454703 457701 460699 464695 467689 475677
 0.25 467712 466708 464706 461707 459709 457712 456715 454718
      452720 452723 453728 455729 458728 461726 463723 464720
      465717 466714 467712
 0.25 424820 423810 423806 420804 415807 411812 409819 408824
      405831 405838 407843 412842 416840 417837 418830 420825
      424820
 0.25 416973 417969 416966 414963 409962 403962 399963 396965
      393970 392975 390979 389986 389997 390002 394004 399996
      404989 409982 415975 416973
 0.25 382197 383195 381194 379193 378194 379195 381197 382197
      382197
 0.25 341061 342057 341055 337052 327050 323051 319054 314056
      310056 304055 299056 290058 280060 268059 262059 258061
      256065 257069 266085 283094 290094 294093 298092 302093
      312092 317093 320089 323085 326082 328074 329068 332065
      335062 341061 341061
 0.25 277801 270798 262797 255797 248800 243805 241811 242816
      244818 251815 256814 260813 263812 265808 270804 277801
 0.50 460659 457652 452649 447649 441652 436656 431660 428664
      424670 421674 416679 414684 415690 420687 424682 427678
      432678 444677 450674 454671 458665 460659
 0.50 405975 406973 405972 403971 402972 400972 400974 398975
      397977 396978 396979 396982 395984 396985 398984 400982
      401980 402979 403978 404977 405975 405975
 0.50 356759 354755 352752 348750 345753 337767 329781 321795
      311806 309809 310813 312818 314820 322817 327812 336800
      340792 345785 349779 351771 355765 356759
 0.50 334058 333054 329054 325055 323058 315058 308060 292061
      284063 277064 268063 264063 262066 263073 266079 271084
      281086 288089 292088 297088 313090 317089 319084 321081
      320076 324068 326061 334058
 0.50 308916 309911 308909 304904 300900 298893 300889 298885
      294889 293894 292899 293906 295912 299918 301920 304918
      308916
 0.50 263805 261801 259800 255800 252801 248802 246803 245805
      243808 242811 244814 246815 248814 251813 253812 256810
      258809 261807 263805
 1.00 450662 450659 449658 447658 445659 444659 442661 441662
      441665 443665 444665 446665 448664 449663 450662
 1.00 345776 344774 342774 339777 338780 336784 334789 332793
      332796 335794 337791 340786 342783 344779 345776
 1.00 312069 311068 309068 309069 311069 312069
 1.00 308070 302070 298070 297067 292065 289066 283070 279071
      276071 272072 272077 279080 286081 295082 301079 305073
      308070


$$





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