Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191840
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 20/0000 UTC THRU JUL 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...DAKOTAS/MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

A COMPLEX SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS AN
EXPANSIVE REGION OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE STATE OF IA. MUCH
OF THE SURROUNDING REGION IS CURRENTLY FEELING THE INFLUENCES OF A
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
HOWEVER...ALL SIGNS DO POINT TO ANOTHER BOUT OF CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 850/700-MB SHORTWAVE MIGRATES FROM
EASTERN WY INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN. AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TAKES SHAPE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WITH THE NOCTURNAL
LLJ TRANSPORTING 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWATS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT
ITS PEAK...MODELS DEPICT THE 850-MB FLOW NEARING 45 KNOTS BY
20/0600Z. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. A GRADUAL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD IN TIME IS LIKELY GIVEN THE STAGNANT MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AS EXPECTED...MODELS
SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS SO PLAYED UP ANY MODEL WHICH SEEMED TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING IA COMPLEX TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. AS
SUCH...FAVORED A COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS THE
00Z HRW-ARW/HRW-NMM-B COUPLED WITH SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATTER WAS PARTICULARLY USED DURING THE MCS
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.


...SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC...ABUNDANT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO  BE FAVORED IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO 2 INCH RANGE POOLING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
ADJACENT LOCATIONS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE FUELED BY THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF UPTICK IN
CONVECTION WITH ANY MESOSCALE PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH WITHIN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE 12Z NAM WHICH WAS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THERE WAS A REASONABLE CONSENSUS
TO FOLLOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A MAXIMA ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS DOWN INTO SC WHERE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY LOCALLY
AUGMENT ACTIVITY.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS...

WITH A 597-DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL DRAW ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IGNITING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AS USUAL...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS OF TOPOGRAPHY GIVEN ANY
LOCAL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES. GIVEN AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MANY
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOWERED PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AT LEAST UNTIL THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE.
OVERALL...FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS WHILE UTILIZING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THESE SOLUTIONS FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES.


...GULF COAST/FL...

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW ENHANCED ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORIGINATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND QUICKLY MIGRATE WESTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. UTILIZED A NON-12Z NAM MODEL CONSENSUS
GIVEN THE NAM APPEARED TO BE A TAD TOO DRY OVER SECTIONS OF FL.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 536000 536991 535984 532969 530957 524949 519942 524936
      525932 526923 528910 528903 526899 519892 516888 512886
      507884 504880 500873 494868 486866 483868 479871 477876
      476882 475890 470892 463896 461883 458873 459867 462864
      464859 463852 461848 459846 456842 452840 447841 444844
      439851 433854 427853 423852 417852 414854 412857 408861
      404863 396866 388871 385875 382880 379900 379905 381909
      389912 394912 397915 402923 424957 429964 431968 433971
      433975 431980 431985 427994 424999 422003 418008 415014
      410020 404026 399033 394034 390035 382039 374041 371042
      365042 357046 354049 351054 343058 333057 330055 327057
      328061 324065 322068 320074 316077 314079 311079 304078
      299078 294079 291084 289089 291091 290098 293102 292109
      293117 296121 298125 330130 335131 339129 342129 347132
      353134 358134 362132 366129 368125 369122 368120 368116
      370114 373119 373126 374131 376132 380129 386125 388121
      392119 398113 406111 417095 419074 420062 415053 415045
      418039 421035 423029 430021 438014 452005 455998 459994
      462992 469988 476993 468998 462004 457010 451014 449018
      448024 450029 453034 456038 457042 456047 452059 452062
      450066 450072 449081 449089 451103 454110 461128 467135
      470140 468143 464152 459162 454172 447179 449181 449184
      448188 445196 442202 439206 431209 427210 423213 422215
      422219 426224 430222 434220 440216 444218 448218 454211
      463197 472185 484167 485172 484177 483192 481198 478202
      474206 471208 466210 463213 462221 466225 469224 472224
      473228 470231 466233 462234 461237 462239 466242 469242
      473243 477246 482250 484245 483241 483234 482230 479227
      476225 477223 481223 484226 486231 488228 490229 497237
      501237 504235 504231 503225 499216 496207
 0.01 496207 496199 497193 498185 500180 501165 501159 501154
      497143 495133 492122 492116 492113 493110 498103 502096
      506084 509073 510058 505050 501041 500035 499032 501030
      507035 517036 524033 528024 534016 535003 536000
 0.01 389753 380728 378722 376719 372715 370709 367705 363703
      359702 355706 344725 332744 327752 323762 316782 313791
      311798 310805 307807 304807 300806 299803 296799 293795
      285791 276787 271786 264787 259788 255790 246796 241805
      239811 238818 243828 245831 249833 253831 256832 257834
      263843 268843 272843 277842 281846 284847 285851 286856
      284869 285877 283882 284896 286908 284920 282933 279944
      272952 264960 261962 257961 253959 249957 244957 240960
      238962 239965 244974 244979 242985 243995 245000 249004
      258010 261013 266015 270017 276018 281018 285014 286009
      286003 279995 275993 272991 274988 280980 294964 296961
      298958 301958 305956 312956 317946 321933 323924 324916
      328913 330909 334903 337900 341896 346895 348891 351887
      352881 352873 351867 350862 347857 344853 343847 354850
      357846 357838 356822 357816 360812 365803 372795 379785
      387767 389753
 0.25 521996 521989 520981 515976 512975 508980 506988 506998
      508006 511011 514012 518009 519007 521999 521996
 0.25 477238 479236 478234 476234 475235 476236 477238 477238
 0.25 497960 498949 497942 494936 487935 482937 478942 477949
      477959 480964 485967 487968 491968 496965 497960
 0.25 495909 495901 493897 491894 487894 484897 482899 479904
      479909 480912 484915 489915 493914 495909 495909
 0.25 463942 462932 461926 455915 451904 446893 442887 440883
      437878 433874 424870 417870 410871 404873 399874 390879
      386884 386892 387898 390902 399909 405917 412926 419933
      427940 436947 444954 449955 454954 460948 463942
 0.25 402074 401066 401060 400058 397051 392046 386045 380047
      377048 377052 381057 381060 379062 373061 369061 366064
      370069 373071 373075 372081 373084 376091 378094 380095
      386093 391090 390086 391084 393080 396078 401076 402074
 0.25 389084 389082 389079 389077 388076 386077 385077 383079
      383081 383082 383083 384086 384087 386086 388085 389084
 0.25 370757 369749 367745 363734 359731 355732 349738 342746
      337753 329771 326780 323790 321801 320807 320812 324822
      329823 334822 346808 352801 355792 360783 362773 367764
      370757
 0.25 369106 366103 365097 367095 368090 365088 361085 357087
      354088 353091 356095 360098 361101 364105 368107 369106
 0.25 353117 353115 352115 351114 349113 347113 346114 347115
      349116 349117 351117 352118 353117
 0.25 344105 344103 343100 343098 343096 342095 341093 340092
      338092 337093 337095 336097 338099 339100 339101 340102
      341104 342104 343107 344105
 0.25 326098 325097 324096 324095 323096 323098 325099 326098
 0.25 318116 319114 318113 317112 316112 315114 315116 316116
      318116 318116
 0.25 320093 318092 317092 316092 316094 318095 320093
 0.25 313898 314892 313887 309884 305886 303890 303897 303903
      304909 305914 308917 311913 312909 312903 313898
 0.25 307869 307867 307865 307863 306861 306860 305859 304858
      303859 302860 302861 301863 302865 302867 302869 303870
      305871 306871 307869
 0.25 289824 285822 279821 273812 271807 272805 273801 270795
      266793 260792 255795 251798 248802 249810 252814 257816
      263818 266821 272823 278826 281829 285829 289824
 0.50 456935 455929 453924 450913 446902 440894 434888 427882
      419878 409877 398878 393879 390881 388883 387887 389891
      396899 407913 412921 419928 433939 441944 445947 449947
      454942 456935
 0.50 397060 397058 395058 393058 392059 391061 390061 391064
      393063 395063 395062 396060 397060
 0.50 384074 383072 383069 382067 380065 378066 378067 377069
      378071 377073 377076 377078 376080 376082 377083 378083
      379081 379080 380078 381077 382076 383075 384074
 0.50 362751 362745 361742 358739 355739 349743 344748 337760
      331774 329781 326790 326799 327809 329812 333812 338808
      347796 353782 359767 361760 362751
 0.50 265798 264798 262798 261798 259799 258799 257800 255801
      256803 258803 259803 261803 261802 263801 264800 264799
      265798
 1.00 446933 446927 445923 443918 440911 439904 431896 427892
      422889 416887 409887 406889 404892 403899 410910 413914
      417919 421922 427923 435930 440933 444934 446933
 1.00 348771 349769 348767 347766 346765 345764 343765 343766
      342767 341768 341770 340771 340773 340775 341777 341779
      341781 343780 344779 345778 346776 347774 348773 348771
 1.00 341788 341784 340781 338784 336785 334787 333789 332794
      333798 334800 336799 337797 339794 340790 341788
 1.50 421902 422898 420895 418893 415892 411892 409894 408898
      410903 411905 413907 414910 415913 419912 419908 420905
      421902

$$





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