Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 100613
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY

BEHIND EXITING COASTAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST THE ONLY PCPN OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ASSOCD WITH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACRS
THE EXTREME NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES..FAVORABLE ALONG LAKE TRAJECTORIES WILL DVLP TO THE LEE
OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE ERN GT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.  THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MDTLY STG SINGLE BANDED PLUMES OVER THE NE END
OF LAKE ERIE AND ERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.  A CONSENSUS OF HI RES
MODEL RUNS AS USED HERE GIVEN THE HI MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE
BANDS.  ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION...THE GFS STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER AND FLATTER WITH CLIPPER S/WV DROPPING
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THOUGH ITS QPF
IS NOT THAT MUCH OUT OF LINE WITH A GENL MODEL COMPROMISE AS LIGHT
PCPN BAND IS MORE TIED TO THE TRACK OF ASSOCD WEAK SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACRS NORTHEAST ND TOWARD CNTL MN BY MON
MRNG.  CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE RELATIVELY MINOR..MAINLY SLOWING
THE SEWD ADVANCEMENT OF LIGHT WAA SNOWS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCD WARM FRONT.  FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER...SEE
QPFHSD.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 545041 546034 545029 544018 542008 537000 533993 530984
      522965 514952 508947 503942 499923 492909 488903 483898
      478892 474890 473887 476885 478882 477878 477871 479867
      477865 475862 473861 473857 475854 474851 468847 465839
      464828 464822 465819 464808 463802 462798 462791 464787
      467780 469771 471766 470761 469754 468751 465738 466732
      465727 466723 468723 471724 474726 479725 481726 486725
      491719 493711 493702 499702 501699 500696 496686 493679
      491674 489669 491661 490654 488651 484641 481639 477638
      473638 470638 468640 458652 420693 428695 431695 434693
      444679 449678 452681 458685 461686 462691 457697 455700
      450703 444709 439714 438717 440719 443719 445722 443726
      440726 434726 429728 426731 430733 435731 438731 440732
      441734 440737 437738 432739 429742 427747 424754 425760
      424764 422765 420767 419771 414778 410783 398789 394790
      390793 384797 379802 375809 368814 366815 367818 381811
      386809 390806 395801 402796 406794 409796 411799 411803
      410807 409812 410816 411819 415819 418816 422816 441828
      443830 443834 443840 440847 438849 435848 434841 432833
      429831 428836 428841 426845 422853 417860 417863 419865
      429865 434864 438865 444866 448865 451867 457870 462875
      465883 450883 447881 442880 434880 429880 426882 425887
      425892 426906 427910 428916 431923 435928 444941 448947
      452954 458969 460973 463975 468980 470984 470989 472995
      472001 475013 478022 482029 488033 508053 514059 517059
      519057 520054 524053 532054 537052 542049 545041
 0.01 518268 519261 518259 514253 507251 506261 503262 499258
      497257 495254 494258 495262 496267 497271 501277 503281
      505281 509275 514272 518268
 0.01 457751 453748 450751 447754 444758 443764 442769 441774
      443776 446775 447770 450765 451762 454757 456754 457751
 0.01 415698 413687 410685 407686 401690 396696 391701 387707
      386711 387717 390719 392718 394714 398713 405712 409712
      412709 414701 415698
 0.01 412746 411744 409746 408747 407747 406749 406750 405752
      404755 405757 405759 406760 406759 407757 409756 409754
      410752 410751 411749 412746
 0.25 524015 524010 521006 518002 515999 512997 508996 510998
      513001 515004 518008 521012 522015 524015
 0.25 494003 493000 493003 494003
 0.25 466866 466863 466861 465860 465861 465863 465866 466867
      466866
 0.25 450804 450799 448799 446800 445803 443805 440808 439811
      440815 442816 446815 447812 449810 450806 450804
 0.25 441757 441752 440748 438747 436749 434751 433756 434759
      434763 435766 436768 438766 439764 440760 441757
 0.25 428788 428783 425782 424785 423789 422792 421794 420798
      420801 420804 423803 424801 425798 427795 428791 428788
 0.50 438760 438758 438755 437753 436756 436758 437760 437761
      438760
 0.50 426789 426786 425786 425789 426791 426789
 0.50 425793 426791 424791 424794 425795 425793

$$





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