Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301831
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 01/0000 UTC THRU JUL 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

INCREASING MONSOONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WED.  GIVEN WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THE FORCING WILL BE LARGELY A RESULT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WITH THE SCALE OF THE CONVECTION LIKELY TOO
SMALL TO RESOLVE BY THE COURSER GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  A
PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE NON-EC SOLNS OVER THE SW AS THE EC
APPEARED TOO DRY AND MISSING PCPN WORKING WWD FROM SW AZ THIS
MRNG.  INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPR HIGH
ALONG WITH LIGHT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW GENLY FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED
GREATER THAN .25 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE MTNS OF CNTL/SRN CO INTO
NRN AZ...WHILE FOR MOST AREAS HAVE GENLY FOLLOWED CONTINUITY WITH
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN .10 INCH.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/MID ATLC...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY-AIDED PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND AND FORM WITHIN THE BROAD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD NY/NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
WED..WITH PARENT SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE ERN GT LAKES INTO SRN
CANADA.  THE BETTER MID/UPR FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX/AND INSTABILITY...THE LATTER WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE MID ATLC/NE COASTAL AREA.  THUS EXPECT
TWO GENL FOCUSED AREAS WITH ONE PCPN MAX EXPECTED ACRS NRN NY WITH
MID/UPR DYNAMICS...AND ANOTHER MAX OF .50 INCH PLUS ACRS COASTAL
AREAS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ADDED LIFT/FOCI WILL BE PROVIDED BY
WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS...CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY GIVEN REASONABLY
CLOSE LARGE SCALE MODEL FCSTS.

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO OVER 30 KTS INTO
NW/SE ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS DROP SEWD WITH SHEARING S/WV ENERGY ALSO DROPPING
SEWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.   THERE IS GENL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS AS STGR MSTR
INFLUX WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES POOLS INTO THE BNDRY.  THERE IS
LARGE LATITUDINAL SPREAD AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 12Z NAM CONEST AND NSSL WRF SOUTH OF THE ARW AND
MUCH OF THE 12 GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  STAYED ON SW EDGE OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF/NAM CONEST SOLNS AS
EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR ALONG AND ON WRN EDGE OF
ENCROACHING MID/UPR CLOUD DECK.  ALSO UNSURE OF IMPACT OF
EXTENSIVE SMOKE/CLOUD COVER WHICH MODELS LIKELY DO NOT MODEL WELL
AND WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACT ON INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...HAVE
MAX QPF ACRS FROM NW TO SCNTL MO FOR THE OVERNIGHT PD TONIGHT THRU
EARLY WED...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT LIKELY BRINGING ANY MCV REMAINS
SEWD INCREASING TSTM RISK ACRS TN VALLEY WED AFTN.  POOLING OF
MSTR ALONG WRN END OF OUTFLOW AND FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY ACRS WRN/CNTL MO LATE WED AFTN AS WSWLY
FLOW DRIVES INCREASING HIGH SBCAPES INTO THE BNDRY.  AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 5 INCHES PSBL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.


...GULF COAST / SOUTHEAST / FLORIDA...

SCTD MOSTLY DIURNAL CNVTN IS EXPECTED IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW
AROUND SFC RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACRS THE NRN/CNTL GULF.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS OF
ACTIVITY HERE BUT GIVEN THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY
MESOSCALE DRIVEN...CONTINUED TO KEEP AMOUNTS CONSERVATIVE.  A GENL
MODEL BLEND..HEAVY ON CONTINUITY WAS USED MOST AREAS.

...NRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD OUT OF SW
CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG QSNTRY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM ERN MT SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THIS AREA INTO LATE WED.  KEPT HIER QPF AMOUNTS
ACRS ND IN AREA OF BEST 85H MSTR FLUX..IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO BLEND
OF 12Z NAM/GFS/CMC AND GEFS MEAN.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 227039 230045 234049 239052 242051 246049 247045 248034
      257033 260028 259023 258017 260015 263017 268021 274026
      282026 287024 290022 298020 298019 302017 302996 297988
      298978 298965 298959 299956 301958 305958 307956 310947
      314924 316915 319922 324941 328951 330956 332954 334952
      334946 334932 334920 334916 335911 337901 337898 339897
      341900 345909 347914 346918 350941 353947 355950 359950
      365950 368952 374953 378955 385959 390961 392964 396972
      399984 403991 407996 414002 421007 435018 447030 457040
      465046 468056 467072 468083 470095 474104 477112 481118
      490135 489150 493153 498154 504160 509168 506190 504197
      503204 504214 509238 513245 520244 526242 531238 551154
      550132 548120 546110 540103 533096 526081 519067 511048
      505030 497010 496000 494992 489983 485976 483971 481967
      476959 473957 469954 465954 462952 453951 450951 445950
      437949 433946 431942 422929 417921 412914 409910 406909
      402904 400893 397883 394874 392870 393866 401848 406841
      412838 415835 420836 425842 428845 430850 435855 443853
      449848 453850 457850 463853 465854 468851 475845 480840
      483831 487821 490810 492806 493810 494816 495817 495802
      499794 503788 504782 506778 511768 514759 516717 516710
      516705 513701 512694 509684 508679 504678 492673 482677
      475681 470683 467681 462681 461680 459677 458670 455668
      450662 446662 440664 427668
 0.01 427668 421674 412680 394694 379706 373710 369712 359718
      340726 330732 321737 316740 314742 306750 298758 292765
      286770 280779 277782 276787 282795 285798 285800 283801
      270803 256805 255810 256818 255822 258824 266830 274836
      281842 285844 288847 290853 290861 288887 285896 284902
      283905 281904 276905 273908 271913 271921 273925 270929
      267933 263935 255941 251944 246943 239941 230941
 0.01 450092 450090 447087 443084 438079 437073 439071 443070
      450070 445065 440062 417048 414043 409047 405047 403043
      400036 395032 388030 386028 383028 380031 378040 375042
      372041 367036 361037 354039 352040 350044 347049 343054
      343059 344061 350066 353065 355068 358071 362073 366074
      367078 369083 374090 375093 375098 378098 380094 385090
      387086 383084 382086 380089 379087 379082 383076 389081
      391083 393081 394086 393091 390094 389097 390099 391103
      387104 385105 385100 382100 378104 376107 377109 376112
      373110 372114 372118 367116 368101 363094 367095 369092
      365088 359082 356075 353073 347076 343078 339082 338086
      335087 332084 333086 333090 329094 324099 318101 311098
      306094 304092 303088 299082 293077 285074 280069 277065
      268058 266058 266062 266066 267070 277079 280087 281096
      280105 283111 291119 297124 301125 304128 308134 311137
      318139 323142 327147 330154 328156 324156 319155 311153
      308155 309158 321165 327168 332170 334173 337179 339181
      342182 354186 360185 365187 369189 371192 377195 379197
      383198 388199 390197 387191 383186 380179 379172 376166
      374163 370162 367171 364173 358173 353175 349176 349173
      347166 345161 340148 336141 335138 337135 344138 347138
      349134 351130 355129 361126 372133 375135 378135 384129
      387123 392121 396117 399112 410104 409100 405095 402091
      403086 405084 406080 409078 412080 415080 417078 420077
      424077 428078 431080 437086 442091 443094 447095 450092
 0.01 453828 452822 451819 446812 441806 441802 439799 437799
      433799 430798 428801 428807 432814 436821 440830 441833
      443836 446838 448838 450836 453828
 0.01 429094 430092 429091 428091 427094 429094 429094
 0.01 413151 413144 413139 415137 410136 404137 401140 395137
      390139 384139 381137 376141 373145 376149 378155 382158
      385155 390156 394154 399155 401160 403163 405161 409157
      412153 413151
 0.01 391174 390171 390169 390167 390165 389164 387164 385165
      383165 381167 383168 384170 386171 387173 389174 391174
      391174
 0.01 385109 386106 384104 383106 383108 384110 385109
 0.01 364157 364155 363153 361153 360154 360156 360158 362159
      364157
 0.01 362114 362110 361105 360102 358100 356095 355091 349092
      347094 345097 345101 345107 347109 349110 353113 356115
      358119 360116 362114
 0.01 347203 348201 348199 348196 347194 347193 346191 345190
      344191 344193 343195 342195 343196 343197 343200 344201
      344202 345203 347203 347203
 0.01 342111 341109 339109 337108 335108 333110 335111 337112
      338112 340112 342111
 0.25 536191 537183 537177 535166 534160 531156 524151 518145
      515146 513152 516161 520170 522182 523188 526193 527198
      530202 531202 534198 536191
 0.25 508716 507710 505704 498698 493695 488693 480693 469696
      465699 461703 454711 450715 446715 443713 442711 441706
      438700 441696 445692 447687 447680 445673 441675 437677
      430685 426688 422689 418691 414695 409702 405708 401711
      398715 396721 398729 398737 403741 402744 401748 404753
      408757 414756 419756 422761 425772 426775 430775 436774
      448771 453772 456777 457801 460808 463812 467816 471818
      476816 479812 484801 488790 492779 492774 493771 496769
      498764 502752 505739 507728 508716
 0.25 487007 487002 486998 483992 479985 473980 462971 458970
      454970 443969 437972 433972 430971 426964 423956 405931
      394898 392894 389891 386893 386899 385904 383904 375902
      369899 367892 365884 363875 365872 368871 372871 375873
      381878 385877 386874 386869 385866 380862 375857 371850
      368843 366839 365834 364829 359828 353833 341840 339843
      337847 334854 333863 333869 334873 339879 341882 343886
      349898 353905 358910 361919 363923 364929 364933 366936
      373939 381949 389952 396956 400961 405968 410973 415978
      420979 424979 429981 432984 435986 442988 449991 456994
      461002 463009 458013 457017 457021 462028 468033 473037
      479039 482037 484035 484029 485025 487007
 0.25 483080 483077 482076 480076 480077 480078 480079 481082
      483080
 0.25 426724 424724 423725 425725 426724
 0.25 399751 399747 395745 392747 390748 387751 385753 384754
      381757 379759 382761 384762 388761 390760 393758 395756
      397754 399751
 0.25 396062 396060 395057 393055 393052 392050 389047 387046
      383045 381047 378049 379052 381054 383056 384058 388061
      389062 393063 396062
 0.25 392824 393821 392819 391819 390819 388819 387820 386820
      385822 384822 383824 382825 381827 381830 381832 382834
      384834 385833 387831 389829 390827 391826 392824 392824
 0.25 377764 376761 374760 368763 360771 352779 345787 339797
      336810 337814 339815 342811 349800 355791 362783 370774
      377764
 0.25 380071 380069 378065 377064 374062 371061 368060 366061
      366065 368066 371068 373069 374073 374078 374080 377081
      378078 379074 380071
 0.25 375826 374825 373824 373821 372821 370821 369822 368822
      367824 366824 366827 367829 369829 371830 373829 374828
      374827 375826
 0.25 374053 372050 370050 369051 367051 365052 363053 361053
      359053 358053 358054 356056 357056 359057 361056 363056
      365056 366056 368055 370055 372054 374053
 0.25 326768 325765 323763 318766 315771 312777 308780 306782
      306787 309792 314795 319796 322793 325786 325779 325775
      326768
 0.25 319121 320119 319119 319116 318116 316115 314114 313116
      312116 312118 312119 312120 314121 315122 317122 319121
      319121
 0.25 314898 313896 313895 313894 312892 311891 309890 307892
      306892 306894 305895 305897 306899 306900 306901 307903
      308904 310904 311903 313901 313900 314898
 0.25 278815 276813 273812 271811 268810 265810 263811 262814
      262817 264817 268818 270818 273818 275817 278815
 0.25 229023 234023 241022 244023 248024 250020 247014 246012
      247009 251006 255002 260999 266998 268997 269993 267986
      267983 271978 273975 268970 263969 257971 252974 250971
      245968 239967 232968
 0.25 262984 261980 260980 259980 255978 253977 251978 249980
      248984 250988 251990 253991 256990 259988 260986 262984
 0.50 500721 497715 493711 490705 487704 483704 476706 470709
      465714 461719 451728 442739 429740 428744 429747 429755
      432760 435762 437760 439757 442758 443762 446761 451760
      457760 467769 469770 470773 469781 465788 463792 464797
      465806 467809 470811 473811 475809 477802 481786 483778
      487773 493760 497743 499731 500721
 0.50 472996 472994 472992 472991 470989 469987 467986 465985
      464984 462984 461986 462989 463991 463992 464994 465995
      466996 467997 468998 470998 472998 472996
 0.50 438685 438683 436682 435683 435684 433685 433686 432688
      431689 431690 430692 431694 433694 434692 435691 436690
      437688 437687 438685
 0.50 421711 421706 420704 418702 415703 413704 412706 410709
      408712 407714 406717 406722 408723 412723 415721 417719
      419716 420714 421711
 0.50 421971 421967 419962 414952 410945 405937 397920 394909
      392904 390904 389910 386912 378908 371907 367911 366916
      368928 370932 373934 386947 393950 400956 410968 418973
      421971
 0.50 378076 378073 377071 377069 376068 376066 375065 375064
      373063 371063 370064 371066 373067 375068 375069 376071
      375073 375075 376077 378076 378076
 0.50 363860 363857 362852 359848 356842 352839 348842 346849
      347857 344863 342868 345875 349887 354899 358903 361901
      360892 358885 355872 353866 353862 357862 361863 363860
 0.50 230991 231995 233999 237001 242002 245001 251000 249998
      247998 244994 240992 239989 236985 233983 231985
 1.00 487719 485716 482714 476718 471725 465728 459732 456737
      458741 463738 469736 475739 478737 481734 485728 487719
 1.00 404952 403947 402942 397933 393926 387918 381913 377912
      373914 371918 371925 373929 375931 381938 384941 388943
      395947 403952 404952
 1.50 394940 393936 391931 389927 387922 384918 381916 376914
      374918 374925 376929 379932 382936 384938 388941 390942
      393941 394940
 2.00 391938 388934 386929 386927 384922 382920 378917 377920
      377927 379929 381934 384937 387939 391938

$$





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