Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 13/0000 UTC THRU APR 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION---WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MULTI
STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES.

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  LARGE SCALE UVVS AHEAD OF
THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN---COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHWARD SURGING FRONT ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WILL SUPPORT EARLY SPRING HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  A BLEND OF THE ECMWF--GFS AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED FOR QPF DETAILS DAY 1.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY---MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--GREAT LAKES INTO
FAR NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT REGION---A HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY
AND STRETCH FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---NORTHERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THE
OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION---WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SEVERAL STREAMS--- WILL
LEAD TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
INTO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL INCREASING PW VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT---WITH PW ANOMALIES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THIS REGION FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE VERY FAVORABLE COUPLED UPPER JET
DYNAMICS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ANOMALOUS PW
AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO COME IN SEVERAL
WAVES---WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FORM IN THE WAKE OF
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER WI/MI AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI 0000-1200 UTC
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTION AFTER 120O UTC SUN AS ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SHORT
TERM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE---WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS WITH EACH SHORTWAVE AFFECTING
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.   THE INITIAL AREA OF FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WI/MI WILL BE
PUSHING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
AREA OF PRECIP TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING SUNDAY WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FOR SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
FAR NORTHER NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATING LATE SEASON
SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MAINE.

TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1---CONVECTION MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY IN A REGION OF STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD PUSHING
COLD FRONT.  THERE IS NOT A GREAT CONSENSUS FOR QPF AMOUNTS IN
THIS AXIS---WITH AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 446629 455633 461638 468643 471646 474652 484674 486679
      487687 487694 488702 488727 487738 489748 491763 493773
      499801 501815 505826 507833 509837 516847 519851 524853
      531859 534861 538865 543873 546882 545887 545897 544903
      544910 541920 538928 535938 533945 534953 535957 535965
      535974 533980 533987 531992 528008 521012 514007 511004
      510998 505987 499976 491959 487952 484941 481930 477922
      474915 470905 465878 464871 463867 460867 456879 453890
      450904 447915 443926 436943 434948 433954 432959 432966
      430971 430978 430985 431990 438993 443995 444000 446011
      448017 448025 450039 453049 460074 460079 462085 468093
      475096 477102 476110 476116 477121 476127 473129 469128
      466132 465135 466140 470149 470153 468157 462158 457157
      453157 448155 443146 435140 436133 435126 433123 430125
      426131 421131 418128 413125 408126 405128 403134 405139
      411144 414148 412152 411155 406155 402154 397152 390146
      385145 382143 374138 370134 367131 350119 346112 345105
      345101 345093 348088 350084 354079 358071 357059 357045
      358040 360036 372028 374025 375018 375010 374006 374998
      373993 371988 367984 362982 356981 350975 347969 343973
      336978 332982 328984 320988 311986 311975 308975 305977
      300980 290979 284974 284967 286962 292955 305943 321931
      338920 345915 349912 354911 371907 376904 379900 385893
      392880 403866 413851 418841 420836 420831 419828 414817
      413810 413804 420782 423773 425762 425750 427741 432724
      437702 435697 434690 432677
 0.01 432677 431675 431672 431670 430668 430665 430663 429661
      429658 429656 430653 430651 429649 429648 430646 430644
      430641 431638 431636 432633
 0.01 285806 284798 282794 279792 276790 273791 264792 257795
      253796 253800 254804 256807 260813 264817 273816 278815
      280813 284808 285806
 0.25 528923 527914 527905 525896 523889 520884 515882 512881
      509882 508887 504894 501898 498906 498914 499924 500929
      504937 506942 511946 515947 519943 522938 528926 528923
 0.25 479729 473690 471679 468671 458667 455668 451672 449678
      448686 447700 445705 442709 440712 440717 441726 438741
      437749 437757 439775 436786 432797 430803 429810 429829
      427843 425850 421856 414866 408879 398901 392910 386918
      379927 375942 368953 360962 358968 361972 366972 372972
      379971 385971 391979 391994 392002 395009 396017 396026
      393034 390040 387044 384045 379044 376046 376049 378053
      381057 382061 380065 376067 372064 369062 366063 368068
      373072 376087 382089 388092 397086 406082 410080 415080
      420081 423087 426093 431097 434102 439105 444110 451110
      457109 460109 462105 460099 457094 454089 453082 453075
      452070 445060 442053 440047 441043 443041 443038 441035
      438031 435023 432018 428017 426018 423019 421017 417012
      414008 413002 414989 419975 423961 428947 434934 438921
      446896 452872 456856 459840 468812 472786 475772 477757
      479749 479741 479729
 0.25 357934 355930 353929 348930 336934 326939 317946 313950
      310954 307961 306966 317960 327955 336949 345943 355936
      357934
 0.50 478732 476722 473713 470703 467694 463690 461688 457689
      454693 451701 449708 447711 446717 446726 445735 444743
      443752 444771 442791 438808 432838 430845 427854 424862
      420867 413878 408890 402905 394919 388930 382940 378947
      373952 368959 365965 366967 370968 378968 383966 391967
      401977 403979 407981 410979 412976 423951 429935 435920
      439905 443892 448875 452857 455841 460827 464810 468791
      468782 470775 473761 476744 478732
 0.50 452078 447067 441065 437064 435061 434057 433049 433042
      433038 431036 421032 415030 411033 403042 400045 395047
      390048 383047 380047 379050 383053 388055 390061 390069
      390075 393082 397076 400073 405070 410068 416068 428069
      433067 435069 436073 437086 439093 441101 442103 445102
      448098 450095 448091 445087 446081 451080 452078
 1.00 465727 465720 463714 461710 458712 456717 454722 454727
      454735 456742 458746 460748 462745 463740 464734 465728
      465727
 1.00 460798 460790 455789 452794 451799 449810 447819 445831
      442835 440840 437847 432856 428865 423873 419881 413887
      410897 406907 400922 395931 389940 379952 377954 375959
      378961 382960 390958 395959 397961 406965 410963 413959
      421943 425934 429923 435907 441885 445863 446852 447846
      447838 452831 453827 455821 457807 460798
 1.00 425058 425056 423051 423048 422046 420043 417041 413042
      412045 411049 411050 413053 416054 419055 421056 424058
      425058
 1.50 442861 442856 441852 437856 433865 427875 423884 416892
      412903 403923 398933 393942 390947 389949 390951 395952
      398955 403957 408955 414948 420938 424929 429917 432907
      436894 438883 442861
 2.00 435885 436872 434870 432873 428880 425886 417899 410914
      403929 401937 399945 400949 404951 409947 415941 418935
      425921 429913 431906 435887 435885
 3.00 432888 429889 426895 424900 420906 418912 415918 415922
      417922 421919 424914 427907 429900 431895 432888

$$




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