Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 13/1200 UTC THRU SEP 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTH TEXAS

THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO DAY 1.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AN AXIS OF
2.00-2.25"+ PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GULF COAST UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTH TX/NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL PERSIST
THROUGH DAY 1---ALBEIT WITH A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO PUSH WESTWARD OFF THE WESTERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.  INTENSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THESE BANDS---CONTINUING THE RISK OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESSIVE OF 5" ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS.

SOUTH FLORIDA

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE GULF COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PRESSING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DAY 1.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
SHOWERY PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODEL QPFS ARE SHOWING A
LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES---BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR HEAVIEST
TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST COASTS AND OVER THE KEYS.

SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S./SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION DAY 1.
ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL COINCIDE WITH THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING---SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  QPF
DETAILS VARY WIDELY AMONG THE LATEST MODELS--BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG VORT---INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES---ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO--SOUTHERN QB---FAR NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1.  THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION REGION ASSOCIATED WITH IT---WITH
THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS REMAINING NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER---WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE AFFECTING FAR
NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
.25-.50"+ AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS---LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 487614 494620 501629 505633 508640 513654 515661 517669
      517674 517682 514709 507732 502747 500749 500754 501762
      501767 499768 496771 495774 491786 482807 478817 475821
      470824 450837 445840 440839 431832 426821 424816 423808
      420804 416803 409803 403805 394811 387813 380815 358825
      345840 340847 335857 323877 318886 315900 315910 314916
      314930 314960 314979 314983 315986 315992 318006 318011
      320014 322018 328027 332036 335040 336045 334058 331069
      330078 336081 345099 348104 352109 362115 365119 365124
      359123 352122 349118 345115 340111 337105 333093 329085
      328081 326081 322084 318084 315079 316066 314053 311047
      307044 300036 295032 293030 290032 289048 292059 292063
      291064 288068 293077 296081 297086 298091 294093 292094
      287093 282091 274084 266079 247068 236062 226055 227033
      228033 229031 229029 229027 230026 231025 231023 232021
      233019 233017 233015 233013 232012 232011 231010
      232951 239945 247937 252929 255923 257921 257917 261909
      266898 272889 278881 277877 275871 271859 270852 267847
      259840 255838 250841 245845 239846 237842 235834 234829
      233822 234810 239801 246793 255787 261782 271788 276789
      282789 296787 309786 317778 324770 328766 331761 336751
      342742 346732 350721 355712 358700 363690 372682 380676
      385672 389667 403651 413643 424636
 0.01 539006 540998 540993 538991 529989 527991 525991 520991
      518993 515993 512992 512988 512981 512974 509960 505948
      504944 504939 506934 505927 504921 499910 493901 490899
      487901 475916 475924 476929 477937 479940 479944 481949
      481954 480962 480971 482975 486972 489972 492977 497985
      499991 499995 498997 495000 493003 493007 495018 489044
      488050 486054 482067 481074 481083 481090 483096 487099
      491096 497091 505086 513082 521078 525076 528071 530066
      530060 531050 530043 528037 527034 528031 534024 539006
 0.25 505683 505676 503669 501663 499659 497656 492654 484654
      478653 469653 465655 463660 466669 468681 469689 468694
      466697 464703 464715 463719 462722 460723 452728 448731
      444733 435735 431737 428741 423749 412763 411766 412773
      416775 421774 426774 431775 436780 440788 443800 445805
      448807 455802 463798 471795 475792 477788 481779 481773
      478767 472761 473756 476750 482745 490741 493737 496732
      499724 500711 500703 503697 505689 505683
 0.25 371750 371740 367732 360733 354737 351741 347747 342759
      339775 335787 329800 325814 320827 315839 310852 308859
      309863 313864 318860 322855 330844 337832 344823 350811
      356799 367773 367765 367758 371750
 0.25 230995 235001 241008 246014 247019 248023 252024 256024
      259025 265027 276026 279025 283023 286020 286016 281010
      278000 276991 276985 277978 281971 285963 287955 277952
      266952 255953 247956 240960 234964 230969
 0.25 275065 275060 273056 268050 262044 256039 253035 248034
      244032 242038 242042 239046 241050 243052 252057 259060
      266064 271066 275065
 0.25 275826 273821 269818 262811 259808 261804 266801 267800
      266796 263794 256793 248798 244802 241807 240812 240817
      241823 244827 248829 254830 265830 272829 275826
 0.50 494686 492682 488682 482688 477697 472703 470709 470714
      470723 471726 473726 478726 483723 486720 488716 490711
      492701 494689 494686
 0.50 468744 469735 465732 462731 459732 456736 450746 447749
      442752 434758 434762 436765 440768 443772 446776 449780
      453783 458781 461775 462763 464756 466752 468744
 0.50 362771 361767 361761 361755 356752 351753 351754 348763
      340781 333800 330810 327820 325830 321839 319843 318847
      320847 326841 338826 343818 348810 355792 359782 362772
      362771
 0.50 281018 280013 278009 275002 273994 272989 273982 279967
      280963 276962 266962 248963 240964 237966 234969 231976
      231987 233995 235999 238001 244005 249010 255015 261019
      269022 274022 278020 281018
 0.50 267823 264819 260815 255812 253810 254806 257801 254800
      250802 247805 244811 244817 246822 251824 258825 265824
      267823
 1.00 354777 354774 352775 348778 347781 345786 344790 342794
      341799 341802 343801 347799 349796 350791 352786 353782
      354777
 1.00 271015 272011 271007 270001 268995 268986 270978 268971
      263968 257967 250966 243968 239969 234973 233979 233986
      234993 237997 246004 255010 265016 271015
 1.50 268007 265996 265989 266984 266977 264974 254970 249968
      246968 237973 235977 234983 237994 244000 253006 262010
      267009 268007
 2.00 263005 263999 262995 260988 259979 253975 246972 239975
      237977 235981 236987 238994 244999 249002 256005 261006
      263005
 3.00 255000 256997 255994 254990 252986 250982 246980 241981
      239983 239988 240992 244996 246998 251000 255000 255000

$$




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