Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 031849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTH FLORIDA---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN 2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  THIS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTH FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THE ENTIRE
PRECIP AREA..WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW
AND NSSL WRF.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN NY AND THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ALSO VERY ANOMALOUS...3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE TOTALS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DEPICTED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN PERIOD...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND EARLY DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
EMANATING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL BE SEVERED---WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP EVENT FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.  STILL...THE
FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  ID...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC
RANGE  WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE
.50-1"+ RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 483615 487616 488619 491624 494627 497634 503644 505652
      508657 514674 516682 519691 522699 523706 522715 521723
      517754 515760 512765 506773 500784 498791 495797 491803
      483804 477804 473798 470793 468789 469785 471770 470761
      469754 468749 467747 466739 464734 463732 457730 453732
      451736 450745 448751 446759 442762 440765 438768 437772
      435773 434766 434762 432759 429754 426753 430748 432744
      436741 443740 447739 448733 446730 444730 442729 438730
      431732 424734 416737 411743 383775 367796 360806 351815
      337832 323846 291883 283891 276899 270907 261911 256915
      251917 244919 241918 237913 236904 236895 238890 239886
      239881 237874 236869 237863 240853 244842 247831 256822
      276805 291791 299784 306778 315767 324758 338739 345730
      351721 363704 367699 371692 377680 383669 390658 399643
 0.01 534212 535204 535197 533184 531179 529174 525166 521161
      517157 509150 505147 499144 495141 492135 486128 478124
      473123 469120 462119 462113 468115 471113 475108 479105
      483103 486099 486095 484095 478094 475091 466090 467095
      470098 467100 462100 428089 424089 425092 427098 425101
      423100 420104 418109 416111 412110 410096 406093 405101
      405105 402108 398106 396109 392112 382114 378116 379119
      380124 385125 390119 395117 402119 411125 415128 419130
      417134 410141 409142 408146 405150 403150 401148 399150
      394159 394163 395168 394173 389176 386181 386188 389191
      394194 396196 394199 389199 385201 386206 392213 393218
      389220 381222 378226 377230 378233 384242 394245 399245
      407247 417249 426248 445251 452253 458253 464255 468259
      472262 474268 477273 479278 484288 490294 496297 499300
      503302 506302 509297 511292 512290 514285 516275 519263
      518253 517246 510225 505217 500209 497203 497199 498197
      500193 503195 507200 513209 516212 521213 528216 532214
      534212
 0.01 506955 506948 505944 503941 499941 496926 493923 489921
      484921 480919 471920 462919 459918 457913 460905 463903
      467903 469910 475915 479915 482912 479895 482887 481877
      472865 466843 462843 459846 456850 454849 453845 451841
      450835 450824 452812 449808 448804 445802 443798 438799
      436803 431809 427812 426815 427827 430833 431835 434833
      437831 440830 443831 445835 446839 443842 442846 439849
      437851 434851 427849 424847 423841 423835 421834 415836
      411844 410850 408854 409864 412868 416868 419871 423870
      426872 430871 435868 438867 442866 450862 453860 458861
      462868 464873 465876 463878 444899 438904 432910 431915
      431921 435928 448957 453966 457974 460984 465991 469994
      471990 473986 476977 476968 474963 475959 475954 477952
      478955 476960 477964 481967 489967 497962 506955
 0.01 453085 453080 451075 448072 445070 440069 436071 434073
      438074 441072 444077 446080 449083 452086 453085
 0.01 430790 429784 428780 425777 420777 410779 403783 396788
      389794 376805 371812 368815 366817 366820 368822 371821
      375819 379815 384809 392803 398798 402796 407796 413817
      416818 419817 422806 425798 430790
 0.01 415069 415066 412063 411061 407060 405058 403060 399060
      396062 392066 385065 387068 385072 378069 374068 373066
      369066 369068 372073 375082 375085 379085 381083 386086
      387086 386081 386078 390082 392081 395085 397085 397081
      401079 404075 413075 414071 415069
 0.25 435632 459644 471643 474644 477646 482655 487665 488673
      487678 484686 481689 477690 470689 463685 458687 455689
      450692 446695 441701 428714 418724 411731 405737 394753
      385765 375777 363791 351805 341816 331828 320842 309856
      297868 287877 280883 276890 273893 269894 260891 256872
      257854 260844 263835 267828 274822 286811 296802 303795
      307788 319773 337749 359718 368705 376693 381683 386677
      397661 404652 410640
 0.25 529202 528194 525187 520180 515174 509170 504169 497165
      488163 484158 479154 472149 467142 464140 460140 458141
      456144 452152 447152 443151 438148 435149 433152 434158
      437161 442166 447177 441182 440188 444191 446189 448191
      449195 452197 456189 462184 464181 464178 463174 460173
      456172 457166 459164 464166 468172 472173 477172 481174
      488180 494182 498183 499183 504184 507185 512191 520201
      522204 525205 529202
 0.25 516264 516257 514250 509236 499214 495208 489206 482204
      476205 467210 461209 456213 451215 447215 441215 436219
      435222 436225 440229 443232 440239 443243 449245 461245
      471249 476253 481258 488267 495279 499283 502286 506287
      508287 509281 512271 516264
 0.25 498253 496244 493236 489229 484224 476221 470224 468227
      470229 477228 480231 482234 489237 493244 497252 498253
 0.25 499677 499674 499672 499669 498667 498665 498664 496664
      495665 495668 496670 497671 498672 499675 499677 499677
 0.25 490142 490139 488136 486134 483133 481132 479132 476133
      474133 474138 477138 480137 482138 484138 487141 488142
      490142
 0.25 455228 454228 453227 452227 452229 454229 455228
 0.50 512258 512252 511247 506235 497216 495212 491210 486208
      479207 473210 468212 463212 447218 443218 441219 441222
      444225 448226 452225 456225 460228 465227 471222 475220
      480220 487223 491228 493233 498241 504252 508258 510259
      512258
 0.50 505276 505268 503263 501260 496255 493247 489240 487238
      484239 481236 479233 476230 472231 469232 465230 459232
      452234 449235 446238 449241 453241 461242 468243 476248
      482252 487259 495272 499277 503278 505276
 0.50 494171 492169 491168 489168 488167 486166 484165 483166
      483168 484170 485171 485172 487173 489173 490173 490172
      492172 494171
 0.50 480165 478162 474159 472156 470150 468147 463145 459147
      459151 462155 464159 466162 469163 473164 478166 480165
 0.50 462663 460660 457657 452654 443646 437642 430639 423642
      416648 406658 397669 387682 382690 378696 369709 361720
      352733 342746 326768 317782 306794 288813 277825 272831
      268839 268843 267847 265853 264861 264868 266874 269877
      275877 280876 287873 293868 303859 311849 321837 331824
      348802 370778 379766 387756 406729 412723 416718 425708
      431700 436693 443687 449683 457675 461669 462663
 0.50 462181 461176 458177 456177 454175 453171 451169 449170
      449174 451177 452180 452183 455185 457184 460183 462181
 1.00 506242 505239 503236 502233 500230 499227 498224 496221
      493222 494227 495229 497231 499235 501238 502240 503242
      506242
 1.00 485217 486215 485213 484212 482211 481210 479210 477211
      475212 474214 473214 473216 474216 475216 477217 478217
      480217 482218 483218 485218 485217
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 468220 466217 465216 462216 459217 457217 454218 454220
      456221 458224 460225 462225 464224 466222 468220
 1.00 429668 425667 422668 417672 413675 408678 399680 394685
      387695 373712 357732 350741 343750 336760 329771 318789
      310800 306804 300808 292815 285822 286835 280848 278854
      280861 284865 289864 293862 299857 304853 308848 315839
      320831 327820 335809 350794 367775 374767 380757 394736
      399724 404714 407708 410702 418692 424681 429668
 1.50 463221 462219 461218 459219 459220 460222 460223 461223
      462222 463221
 1.50 399700 383706 369723 358735 351743 346752 336765 331774
      327785 318799 308816 287848 286852 287858 291859 295857
      302851 309844 314836 318829 324821 328811 333804 339798
      348793 354786 366772 372764 378755 381746 385739 390730
      392718 399700
 2.00 375751 373744 372739 373736 371729 365732 360736 355741
      352745 349752 346757 341763 338767 334774 335782 335791
      344787 349785 354781 362770 370760 373756 375751
 2.00 327803 327800 325801 320805 313814 310819 308824 301834
      295843 292847 290854 293855 296855 301851 308842 314832
      319821 324812 327807 327803
 3.00 315826 314823 312824 309829 306833 302838 298842 296847
      296851 301846 305842 308838 310833 314828 315826

$$




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