Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FL...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVER FL THIS PERIOD..WITH PW VALUES REMAINING
VERY HIGH..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS VERY HIGH
MOISTURE IS BEING SUPPLIED BY A PERSISTENT 20+ KTS OF WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET..AS PER THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
QUITE ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY HEAVY IN THIS PERSISTENT AND SLOW
MOVING AXIS OF MOIST INFLOW..COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY FOCUSED
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT WILL BE COMPRISED OF 2 SEPARATE MAXIMA..ONE WITH THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A MORE NORTHERN ONE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
FRONT.  STUCK RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY..WHICH HAD STRONG
SUPPORT FROM THE MODEL QPFS AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF.  SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY..WITH ISOLATED GREAT THAN 3 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP STATIONARY THRU THIS REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY..WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
ITS SOUTH..WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS
THE PERIOD PROGESSES.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY H5 S/WV
ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES..ENHANCING UVVS IN AN AXIS OF HI CAPE VALUES EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO WHEN AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTION WILL/CAN
INITIATE FRIDAY EVENING.  OF ALL THE 12Z QPF GUIDANCE..ONLY THE
NSSL WRF HAS CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MO/FAR
NORTHEASTERN KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD..WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPING CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST GENERALLY UP IN
NE.  QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THE AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED.  WITH H7
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 12-14C AS PER THE GFS IN THE
REGION WHERE THE NSSL WRF HAS ITS CONVECTION IN THE 00-06Z TIME
FRAME..THAT IS LIKELY THE CASE..SO WILL DISREGARD THE NSSL WRF AT
THIS TIME AND STICK WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL QPFS.  SLOWLY
FALLING H5 HEIGHTS AND LOWERING H7 TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BUILD A
BIT SOUTHWARD..AGAIN AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPFS.  THUS..EXPECT
THE MORE ORGANZIED AND HEAVIER CONVECTION TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA..NORTHERN MO AND INTO
WESTCENTRAL IL..WITH SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGES AND ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF H5 S/WVS THRU THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
WILL SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE NORTHERN INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES..BUT WITH THE PATTERN BEING PROGRESSIVE AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWS REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST..EXPECT ONLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 540195 545157 546151 546145 543139 540139 538140 533144
      528156 526164 523168 521165 522157 520148 518144 517142
      515139 512138 506137 498140 490147 486150 479151 475149
      469147 464146 462152 461158 466162 474164 479168 482169
      484172 485178 488191 489196 493197 492201 488205 483206
      473210 464213 453215 449218 445223 448232 443235 442239
      445243 451242 455247 463249 474250 480253 483256 493264
      498268 504271 509272 514272 517268 518259 517243 512228
      510223 509220 509216 513213 515212 518213 522218 526223
      530227 533222 537210 539200 540195
 0.01 542855 542845 540839 538834 534830 526825 523812 524804
      525799 524794 521788 518783 513772 509771 508767 506761
      505753 502748 499744 494741 492738 487736 478734 470734
      464736 457738 445745 440749 437754 430762 427775 421797
      418810 415823 408833 405840 402846 396856 393868 389878
      385888 383893 381900 380906 381911 391940 392947 392955
      391962 389969 385977 380987 373998 366009 363014 361020
      357033 360041 362045 363045 368043 371041 374036 377033
      379028 400031 404027 407021 409015 411009 415008 418010
      420013 426023 429027 431032 434037 437040 451062 470051
      484037 491028 491025 488022 479016 468011 463008 459001
      458996 457993 455988 446982 442971 433949 431944 430936
      431928 434922 441912 452906 469894 488887 493884 501883
      514882 524880 530878 535872 539864 542855
 0.01 481693 479690 478684 474679 469675 463672 458669 454670
      451673 447679 445681 443683 444686 439692 436695 433696
      424708 423715 426718 430718 443720 451719 454720 459719
      463718 466720 474718 476715 479714 481706 480698 481693
 0.01 455118 456108 453103 449101 434095 427094 430104 432111
      431116 427119 417130 412136 407142 406148 406154 409154
      412153 417147 422140 425137 427136 433131 436121 439120
      445119 450119 455118
 0.01 378805 373805 366806 360807 357810 350819 341827 338830
      335830 332825 331822 332820 334814 337808 337804 338801
      337793 335789 328789 325789 324785 323778 320775 316770
      312768 307767 302768 300770 295772 290772 278773 273776
      269779 265784 260788 255796 255807 252807 250810 249812
      249816 253830 255842 259853 264864 270874 276884 282892
      289900 293905 299906 304909 309911 318913 324913 326908
      326904 324902 324896 326890 327883 327869 328863 332858
      340847 341850 343851 346851 352845 360836 367824 369819
      370813 378805
 0.01 223067 227075 231081 235085 238088 247093 256093 265096
      276100 280101 286102 294099 300100 303102 306112 309116
      314118 318118 323117 327116 329114 333111 337114 345120
      350121 354120 357113 358106 356102 353097 349094 346090
      343087 336082 329077 325074 322067 321063 322056 323044
      322039 319035 316030 312027 304022 301020 296020 292021
      288024 284035 292050 290057 287054 282045 277038 273036
      270035 261030 257028 254024 248021 244017 239013 230012
 0.25 513258 513257 512255 510253 509252 507252 505252 504255
      505256 506258 508260 509262 511262 512260 513259 513258
 0.25 508248 509246 508243 507240 506238 504237 503238 502241
      502244 503245 504247 506248 508248 508248
 0.25 514187 512178 510170 506162 504160 500159 495161 492163
      490168 492176 496184 500191 505192 512190 514187
 0.25 495220 495216 494215 492215 489214 486213 482214 480216
      481220 483222 486223 488223 491224 494223 495220
 0.25 497842 492828 489824 485820 480822 473825 464831 460834
      456840 455857 453862 452869 452872 455874 461871 471865
      475861 479857 483852 488849 493848 496845 497842
 0.25 471771 471764 470758 463754 458754 454757 447763 442771
      438779 436789 437794 439795 442794 449788 455783 463779
      470774 471771
 0.25 467796 466791 462790 458793 453798 449804 445810 442817
      441821 440827 442831 445829 450823 454817 459812 464807
      466803 467798 467796
 0.25 454042 454037 453034 452032 452029 452025 451022 449021
      447023 446026 445029 445034 445037 445041 446045 448046
      451046 453044 454042
 0.25 428985 429976 427971 424964 423956 420945 419926 418912
      417905 414898 408891 403889 397891 394896 392900 392908
      393915 395929 397935 398943 396972 394986 389000 400018
      403015 406010 412998 417992 423989 428986 428985
 0.25 362823 360823 358825 356827 355829 353833 352835 351837
      353837 355835 357832 358830 359828 360825 362823
 0.25 318108 317106 317105 315107 317109 318108
 0.25 312818 311811 309807 301798 299794 295791 289789 284789
      278790 274793 270798 268802 263811 259815 257820 260829
      266841 269851 275861 281869 288879 294885 300888 307887
      309883 307878 304863 304852 306839 308832 309828 311822
      312818
 0.25 299086 296079 291072 287070 283069 271068 265063 259055
      255050 249044 243039 239037 235037 231040 229043 228048
      229053 232060 237067 242073 249079 264088 272090 277090
      280091 285091 288090 292088 297087 299086
 0.50 504176 504174 504171 502170 501169 499170 498172 498175
      499175 500178 501179 502178 503177 504176
 0.50 448039 449036 448035 447036 448039 448039
 0.50 423980 423974 423970 419959 417952 414942 415933 415919
      414913 413910 408902 403897 399899 397904 396910 396915
      399926 400936 401943 400949 399959 399966 400972 401982
      400989 400995 402999 406999 412993 416987 422980 423980
 0.50 303825 303818 299812 294809 287807 283803 280802 277803
      272806 267812 265817 262819 262823 267837 270843 274849
      282858 286861 290861 293859 298847 301841 303833 303825
 0.50 304882 303881 302880 301879 300878 299877 298877 297878
      298879 298880 299882 300883 302883 303883 304882
 0.50 288083 286078 278076 272075 265071 257063 247054 237047
      234047 232048 232051 234055 240064 249073 259081 265084
      273085 286087 288083
 1.00 418973 418968 418965 415959 412954 410947 409939 409929
      410920 409915 407912 404914 403922 404928 404938 403944
      404947 404952 404960 406968 407975 407984 407989 409989
      412984 418973
 1.00 297832 295822 292819 288821 281818 273815 270816 267820
      266824 267829 271838 277844 284848 288848 292845 296838
      297832
 1.00 264076 263076 261075 260074 260073 259074 260074 261076
      263077 264076
 1.50 292835 293831 291826 286825 281823 276820 274818 270820
      268825 270831 273836 277839 283842 289839 292835
 2.00 288831 287829 283827 282827 278826 276824 274822 272821
      270823 270826 271830 272832 275834 277835 279836 282837
      286835 287833 288831

$$





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