Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 17/0000 UTC THRU MAY 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

OVERALL LEANED HEAVILY ON WPC CONTINUITY ALONG WITH
SUPPORTIVE/WELL CLUSTERED INPUT FROM THE 12 UTC NSSL WRF.

...NWRN U.S/N-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE VERY WELL CLUSTERED DAY 1 IN SHOWING AN
ANONAMOUSLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH H5 HEIGHT VALUES MORE THAN
2.5 SD BELOW NORMAL THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD FROM
THE PAC NW TODAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO WED. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PAC
NW/NRN CA EWD INTO THE N-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN
ESPECIALLY THE NRN ROCKIES LATER PERIOD. THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
IS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG DEFORMATION BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO WILL SUPPORT MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS ALONG/UNDERNEATH THE TRACK ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES
INLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DECEASING OVER TIME WITH CLOSED
LOW APPROACH/PROXIMITY. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WFO FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER FORECAST DETAILS.


...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

IT REMAINS ON TRACK THAT LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD OVER
THE NRN PLAINS..MOVING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE EVENING AND INTO
SRN CAN WED. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY
STALL ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA TUE EVENING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS MDTLY STRONG NEG
TILTED S/WV TROF LIFTS QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED MRNG. NE/SW ORIENTATION OF SFC BNDRY
WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW EARLY IN THE PD TO SUGGEST
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

THERE IS NOW A GENERAL WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE OTHER
SHOWERS GENERALLY TRACK EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE
NIGHT...INCREASING SLY 85H FLOW OF NEAR 40 KTS OR SO WILL EXPAND
NWD FROM TX INTO THE SRN FLANK OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENCE FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDING ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A RAPIDLY EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND ESPECIALLY FROM TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK/W-CENTRAL KS NEWD ACRS ERN
NEB INTO WRN IA AND SRN MN..WHERE POOLING OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWS
IS EXPECTED. WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/PVA ARRIVING LATER TUE
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN ERNEST TO FIRE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS. AN UPTICK IN
HEAVIER RAINS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH EVOLVING COMMA HEAD BAND
ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA AND SUBSEQUENTLY FLOURISH INTO WED ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH SYSTEM TRANSLATION.

FARTHER SOUTH..MDTLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX NWD INTO OK AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE INTO NW/WRN TX TUE EVENING..BUT THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED AND RESTRICTED TO STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOPING ALONG POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SLOWER MOVING SRN FLANKING LINE. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN INTO WED ALONG WITH SUPPORT.


...SRN FL...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT DAYTIME HEATING ACTING OF DEEPENING MSTR
WITH MODEST SELY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THE SRN
PENINSULA...WITH BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE GENLY SUPPORTING
SOME .25 TO .50 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WHICH WAS GENERALLY
MAINTAINED.

SULLIVAN/SCHICHTEL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 533187 533173 532159 528139 520111 517105 514101 508095
      504092 502088 498082 488077 480072 474067 468062 464055
      462050 462046 463043 466031 468026 469018 470007 469996
      469986 468979 468970 469962 470957 472950 475945 480947
      496952 501953 507954 510955 514953 517952 521949 527944
      533939 536936 536931 538924 538915 538898 538883 539871
      539864 538855 537838 536829 534820 530807 527798 527785
      528772 528764 528758 515711 505695 499689 495681 489670
      485666 479668 475671 472673 465681 462688 459694 456697
      452703 447712 446717 447724 450725 452729 452735 452738
      450741 441743 438755 439762 441767 442774 444778 445791
      451819 451828 451836 446848 441856 438863 434869 431873
      428876 425879 421881 413885 393887 389890 387894 385898
      385905 383916 382921 380924 372931 369933 364934 362936
      358936 357930 356924 351923 335932 330936 323940 313942
      303942 298943 294945 288949 275964 268976 275995 281998
      282004 280009 280014 285014 289017 293023 297026 301028
      307028 312027 325021 340014 349010 358008 367007 371006
      374006 375008 368016 364019 362023 360029 361036 364040
      369044 370046 368047 365047 356051 352051 348055 344056
      341061 346064 350066 353065 359061 364061 364065 361080
      358089 356099 354111 352114 349114 348118 350121 354131
      356134 362134 370130 373132 375134 375137 375141 376146
      379154 382165 383170 383175 384180 387183 393184 396187
      397190 395193 392193 380190 373185 370183 367183 363185
      360183 354181 350181 357187 362188 367190 373200 377206
      380209 384211 402219 408221 408224 407227 399228 390230
      387232 387237 390240 394242 404245
 0.01 404245 408246 412246 421248 430250 437250 446249 453248
      464246 474250 484250 483236 481231 482229 484227 488227
      491230 494233 498235 504241 508243 510242 512239 514232
      516228 517222 522198 528192 533187
 0.01 473189 473186 472184 471183 469184 468185 467186 466187
      465189 464191 463193 464196 465194 466194 467192 468192
      469192 471190 473189
 0.01 421759 421749 416745 413751 411758 405768 397769 393772
      387782 383788 382793 380796 381801 382803 385802 393794
      400786 408778 417769 420764 421759
 0.01 407815 407810 405808 403806 401806 400809 398811 398814
      397819 397821 397823 399825 403825 404822 406820 406817
      407815
 0.01 348873 348867 346866 339864 327857 319854 315855 311856
      309859 304863 298868 292872 288877 288887 289892 291895
      293897 297897 301897 304895 307893 308890 312884 315877
      320872 328870 341876 347875 348873
 0.01 276803 275800 272797 266794 255794 250795 247796 244799
      241802 237808 234816 233824 234836 235840 237843 243847
      245845 245841 244836 246831 250824 252821 257820 263824
      270828 274829 275826 268810 268806 272806 276803
 0.25 525166 525157 525150 521140 518131 516127 513124 509121
      506116 500108 494099 489094 485091 473082 466077 459070
      451065 445061 443056 444049 450042 455033 459023 460013
      458002 455994 453988 454981 455976 463953 471935 476914
      483895 488888 492886 495886 501893 505902 502910 503915
      506916 510919 515918 520915 523912 528902 531895 531887
      532875 532861 529849 525838 521829 517818 513809 511804
      510797 509790 510785 505743 500729 496719 491710 488708
      484708 481710 479715 478727 479734 478741 477745 474748
      471751 469756 468763 468771 472784 473798 472810 470824
      467836 463847 457858 450875 445883 440890 435896 431897
      427895 423894 420895 412901 405907 399914 391929 380951
      374959 368965 361972 357973 352973 342975 331975 322975
      313974 305972 301971 296971 291974 289978 290984 293987
      296996 301001 303006 303014 305018 311018 329008 344000
      350996 353993 359993 369990 375987 384983 387983 393983
      396986 398991 398998 396002 392011 390016 390021 388027
      388031 390033 393035 399036 408040 414040 420038 428033
      433034 437037 439040 438043 436043 433045 431048 430051
      433056 437065 439076 441081 444084 442084 441088 433092
      429094 427096 425101 422103 418104 412104 409102 404102
      396110 387115 382122 384125 389126 393125 399125 405126
      410129 415136 414140 412144 406150 404153 402158 403164
      406169 410171 415173 419175 422179 426180 427185 428186
      430184 434180 437181 439184 441189 445193 449195 457190
      460188 462185 466174 469171 472171 483173 487172 491169
      494168 499169 507172 509171 511167 520170 523168 525166
 0.25 466219 465216 461215 454214 450213 446214 440215 435220
      436225 439227 443228 447231 450229 453230 453235 456236
      457232 460227 465221 466219
 0.25 432159 432157 432156 432154 431152 431150 430149 430147
      429149 428151 428153 428156 428158 428159 430160 432161
      432159
 0.25 396205 394203 393202 392202 391201 389200 387199 386198
      384198 382198 380199 382201 383202 385204 387205 388206
      390207 392208 393208 395207 396205
 0.25 406075 405071 401068 396068 392069 389070 385074 383079
      383081 385086 389087 393085 396083 400081 404079 406075
      406075
 0.25 263803 262799 257799 253800 250802 247806 246811 244814
      244818 247819 248814 251812 254808 258805 261804 263803
 0.50 522157 522153 520149 517141 513136 508130 491109 477102
      470090 451071 448068 444068 442072 444077 448082 449085
      449090 448098 450107 450116 450126 449132 447135 444143
      443148 444150 443154 443157 447163 451164 454163 466159
      472160 477161 480159 483152 489150 495151 501155 506159
      512158 519161 522157
 0.50 527875 525860 521850 518843 514840 511841 508845 505851
      504857 503864 503872 505879 508885 511889 512895 512899
      513903 517905 521905 524899 525892 525884 527875
 0.50 493774 492760 490752 486751 483753 480758 478763 477805
      474825 472836 470847 466855 462861 459868 456876 452884
      449889 437903 428912 422918 417922 412930 411932 408933
      400939 393943 388948 384954 375963 370970 366976 366979
      367984 374984 377982 383978 391975 401982 405990 406995
      406001 400009 397013 396017 398025 400028 405029 411031
      417030 430025 439027 444034 447034 447031 450031 452026
      450022 444018 442014 444011 449008 451001 451997 450994
      446988 457956 464940 469918 473900 477882 480862 486841
      490800 492796 493787 493774
 0.50 457219 456218 454219 450218 447218 445219 442219 441221
      443223 446225 449225 451224 453223 456221 457219
 0.50 459185 458184 457182 457181 455180 454179 452179 450180
      449183 450185 451186 453186 455187 456187 457187 458185
      459185
 0.50 444113 441110 435107 429108 424110 421112 416111 405109
      403114 398115 389118 389121 391121 395119 405119 411121
      416122 421121 427122 436117 444113
 0.50 418161 419159 418157 416157 415158 414160 416162 417161
      418161
 0.50 416905 415904 413904 412905 411905 412907 412908 413908
      414907 415907 416905
 0.50 354987 353983 351981 346980 341982 337981 330982 324983
      318985 312984 308984 304985 301989 307000 308007 308011
      309014 315012 319009 329005 338999 349993 354987
 1.00 510149 509144 506139 501133 495125 490119 486117 482120
      477124 474122 471117 469108 466097 461090 457091 456095
      456099 459108 462118 463129 475143 477139 477133 480131
      482134 488142 492144 496145 504149 509150 510149
 1.00 479839 480837 480834 479832 479831 479832 478835 478837
      479839 479840 479839
 1.00 471873 471869 470865 466867 462871 460875 457886 455890
      453893 448899 442908 438916 433922 427928 420934 413939
      406942 403945 400949 398954 397960 397967 399971 404977
      407980 412982 417982 419985 418989 419994 417997 413005
      408011 405015 404019 405022 410023 415023 420023 423022
      430017 434015 436010 434001 431998 427996 425996 423994
      424990 427984 431985 434988 437985 441980 446972 450960
      453951 457942 459932 462919 467898 468893 470884 471873
 1.00 455083 454081 453078 451076 451075 450074 448073 448072
      446072 446073 448075 449077 450078 451079 452080 453082
      454083 454084 455083
 1.00 391963 389960 386961 381963 378965 375969 373972 374976
      378977 382974 385972 387969 390965 391963
 1.00 331999 329998 328999 326001 325001 326001 328001 329000
      331999
 1.00 329990 328990 326989 324990 323990 322991 321992 320992
      321993 322994 324993 325992 326992 328991 329990
 1.50 463104 463103 462102 462101 461101 461104 463106 463104
 1.50 467885 467883 467880 466878 466876 466875 464875 464876
      463877 462878 461881 460883 460886 460888 460891 460893
      460896 462898 462895 463895 464893 465891 465890 466888
      467885
 1.50 453942 453936 452930 450926 450920 449914 448911 443917
      434930 423941 414943 407947 401963 402967 405971 408973
      412974 417968 420965 423966 426970 429972 432970 435971
      439972 442969 445960 448950 452944 453942
 1.50 433009 432005 430004 429004 426006 425008 423011 420011
      416012 415013 413017 416019 420019 423018 425016 427014
      429011 430011 433009
 1.50 384968 384966 382967 381968 382969 384968 384968
 2.00 464886 463883 463886 463888 464886
 2.00 423952 421949 416947 410948 408952 406956 404961 405966
      410968 414966 417963 420959 422954 423952

$$





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