Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU APR 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAX
PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP
AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537184 538176 537172 531165 525158 514149 502141
      492135 485128 478121 466118 460113 458111 457108 456103
      455098 453095 449092 445091 438087 436081 436075 438072
      441072 444075 445070 444066 446029 443004 439981 437967
      436961 435954 428930 426920 423911 420899 417890 414879
      411872 407857 402845 398836 394830 391828 387826 381827
      375828 371830 364836 355848 353852 350854 343858 334861
      323863 317865 315857 310839 308834 307829 306822 303816
      297810 293807 288807 268804 264804 259804 255806 254810
      255814 258817 264822 271827 278830 285831 288839 290843
      290847 294853 302870 307895 309900 309907 309914 306918
      299923 292929 290931 289936 288940 284943 272953 279978
      277984 275989 275993 277997 279000 283002 291006 305007
      309005 312002 314001 317003 320005 325010 328014 332015
      337015 341017 345026 348035 350044 351052 346065 350073
      346075 342074 338073 336077 334081 334086 337111 342112
      347115 354122 362123 363121 359119 353112 348105 345099
      343091 347090 351093 354100 361105 368108 374109 378112
      379116 377118 374122 366146 364151 365156 369163 373165
      375169 376174 375181 375186 375193 377196 380199 386203
      391201 395206 399205 400202 401197 404196 409199 415202
      419204 423208 428210 430214 429220 424225 423228 425232
      426237 428242 432244 436245 441245 445246 453251 464254
      467253 472254 475253 479254 482252 483249 482241 480231
      478227 483226 491231 499238 502241 506237 513239 516238
      519233 521223 525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 467185 465183 462185 457189
      452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205 481203
 0.01 443176 441167 435160 432157 430153 430145 431142 432135
      434133 437128 438125 437122 432123 430126 428130 424134
      418130 411125 406124 402125 398127 397130 399131 405132
      407134 413142 418147 421151 423157 424162 427165 429168
      430173 429178 427181 427184 430185 434184 438184 440182
      443176
 0.01 443863 441849 439846 438839 435826 433811 431808 431804
      430796 431785 432777 432769 431760 432754 431747 428741
      424734 419722 414712 404696 398686 388682 384680 379680
      370684 362690 359696 357700 355705 356710 359719 363724
      367726 368729 367731 363735 361738 361744 361749 364754
      368764 372769 375772 379776 380781 383791 384797 387804
      393812 397814 400814 400812 400809 402807 407806 410812
      412814 412818 414835 415851 417854 417859 423869 435869
      440866 443863
 0.25 529186 529182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438027 437016 434002 430985 425968 420954 416943
      410925 405908 401891 400886 397880 393873 389867 383863
      376861 363863 353866 338871 334877 331883 331892 331897
      330902 328908 325912 314922 304931 295940 288947 283954
      282957 283962 286978 288984 294988 301989 307988 321983
      329980 335979 340983 344988 346990 346994 345999 363021
      364039 364047 366053 375055 377057 378062 382069 385071
      389071 396072 403070 409069 412066 426061 430053 434047
      436042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433013 432005 429993 424978 418963 385929 384925
      385920 386912 386905 385896 385891 383888 379882 375878
      370874 366871 360869 349872 343875 338880 335886 334893
      333900 331908 328913 325915 315924 305933 299942 291948
      287954 286962 288970 290974 292981 296985 302985 307984
      332974 337972 345973 350974 354977 352986 353996 355002
      361005 365008 369013 371019 370026 369036 371041 376046
      383049 389050 396052 402052 407051 416051 422049 429037
      432030 433021
 1.00 427020 426008 426999 424992 421982 419976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 375969
      368978 364981 362984 363990 366994 369999 372001 376005
      379010 380016 381022 380033 384036 389038 395039 401040
      411039 414040 416038 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 370927 370918 370910 370899 367891 362882 357877 350879
      345883 342886 337901 335907 332912 323920 314928 306937
      303943 300946 291956 291960 292964 295968 299973 301975
      305975 310974 315975 322973 328971 350962 355958 358955
      366943 368936 370927
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 413979 410984 406993 401995 396995
      395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019 409018 412020
      415017 420008 422999
 1.50 363912 362904 360899 359892 356887 351884 346886 341897
      340903 338908 330917 323922 318926 314930 303949 297956
      296961 299966 303969 308969 318971 327969 337964 341960
      343955 347951 350951 353949 355945 357939 360925 363912
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 357912 356902 351892 348892 346895 342905 332918 326923
      317928 313933 312943 308950 305952 301955 300960 302964
      306966 312966 319962 323959 323954 326950 329948 337944
      344944 348942 350938 352934 353929 353923 355918 357912
 3.00 348919 349913 344911 340912 337915 332924 330927 328930
      320935 318945 319948 321949 325947 332942 339937 342935
      344930 347921 348919

$$




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