Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 27/0000 UTC THRU MAR 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN SEABOARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF---INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS VALLEY---TO A POSITION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF
COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON---SAVE FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS THE HEAVIER QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1.  THE LEAD WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT ONE
PRECIP MAX ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC--WITH A SECOND PRECIP MAX FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
DELMARVA.  THE LAST PRECIP MAX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  MOIST
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAISE
PW VALUES TO 1.5-0-1.75" ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT---SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY

NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION
DAY 1.  LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY---ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT
PRECIP TOTALS HERE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

NO CHANGES FOR MOST OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM THE RECENT PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE
BEST ONSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TARGETED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WESTERN B.C.  TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD--NORTHEAST
PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST---FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON LATE DAY
1---CONTINUING INTO DAY 2 WHERE IT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 469620 472626 473632 472646 471657 470667 469679 466689
      463700 460711 457720 452732 451737 452744 450753 442769
      439780 438787 437792 432800 429805 425808 420815 417816
      413816 414806 416797 417793 415791 413795 408803 402811
      396820 386833 381841 374848 363861 357867 352870 348872
      341876 333879 325883 321885 317886 311887 307886 306885
      288881 268875 247862 241853 235835 235815 237811 240803
      243794 250788 257783 266778 281769 312751 321746 330740
      342730 370704 383692 390686 395680 401673 410666 423654
      436632
 0.01 521272 533225 534220 536212 539204 539197 536192 532184
      531179 528175 524168 522164 519162 514167 511169 510175
      511178 515179 517180 519183 521188 524198 524203 523208
      521216 520219 518226 515231 511230 509227 501220 496218
      492221 491224 490230 491235 480233 476231 473232 469234
      464233 450238 448242 448248 446256 447261 455266 462269
      479279 483287 489293 497297 504296 511292 516284
 0.01 522039 523028 520020 516016 512013 510010 509007 508004
      510001 512999 516997 517994 515991 512986 507983 502980
      497980 491977 483976 474971 462966 457968 451969 436968
      429968 426968 424970 424975 428978 431978 435980 440985
      442986 441990 436987 429987 422985 415984 410982 405986
      403989 403994 404997 406006 408011 413015 416017 421018
      423016 429007 431004 434004 440005 449011 454015 448019
      442021 440024 436030 436035 437039 443048 446053 454054
      459052 462049 459043 455038 462033 466031 469031 477032
      481035 482040 484045 488050 493054 497059 505068 513074
      515072 516067 515060 513053 512048 515046 519043 522039
 0.01 500248 500245 499242 498242 497241 496242 497243 497245
      498245 499248 500248
 0.01 472897 470895 468895 467895 466895 465898 465900 465903
      465905 467906 468905 469905 470903 470902 470900 472898
      472897
 0.01 470880 470878 469877 468877 466876 466875 464876 463878
      461878 461879 462881 463881 464881 466881 468881 469881
      470880
 0.01 464829 463818 463814 461810 458802 456796 453794 450794
      444797 439801 436806 433812 430821 419827 421830 428831
      434834 440835 445839 448840 449845 450848 453849 456847
      462834 464829
 0.01 428876 428871 427869 424868 421867 419867 416867 412868
      410868 410870 412875 414877 416877 419877 423877 426876
      428876
 0.01 416966 415959 413954 409944 403935 401930 396928 393924
      389922 385919 382916 375909 371907 364907 350916 346919
      346925 348931 350934 357943 361943 363938 364936 367936
      370939 375948 378953 382956 387957 390954 392953 394956
      396961 398966 401970 406971 411971 414971 414969 416966
 0.25 518271 520264 520258 518249 515242 511236 503232 497229
      495230 495234 499240 502249 504257 500256 499254 494248
      488242 485242 483247 483254 484258 486267 490273 495280
      499285 502287 506289 510287 511284 513279 515277 518271
 0.25 458662 458655 456650 453648 449648 442653 435659 429664
      424672 419681 408701 406709 409715 414721 416721 419722
      424721 431716 437711 443706 448699 454682 456673 458663
      458662
 0.25 394717 393713 389713 379716 366723 351732 340741 318760
      294780 288783 279786 271785 265788 255801 248812 245819
      243829 243833 244836 249840 254844 261846 271853 282865
      289867 292866 293863 295854 298845 302838 302836 295835
      287834 285832 287828 297821 321818 329816 334813 338812
      341814 341824 341843 344849 341852 339856 338860 338863
      345860 351855 356850 366839 377827 382821 385816 389809
      390803 385804 380807 379803 379800 383793 387784 389776
      391773 389767 389762 385761 381762 380757 386741 391729
      394717
 0.50 517270 519260 518252 515245 512241 506237 502238 501241
      503246 505255 507261 509267 512273 517270
 0.50 508283 508278 507274 506269 504263 500258 495252 491249
      489250 488254 488262 491268 494273 498278 502283 507285
      508283
 0.50 382784 382780 380778 377776 372777 368779 366780 366777
      368773 372761 373755 372750 371744 367739 358738 354739
      348743 340748 333755 327762 324767 322769 324773 328775
      328779 328792 328795 330797 334800 342799 348802 355804
      360801 365799 368796 371792 377789 381786 382784
 0.50 359832 358831 357832 356832 355835 354837 355838 356837
      357836 358834 359834 359832
 0.50 281830 284825 284817 281812 276808 271804 264801 257803
      254811 252816 249829 250832 253838 258841 265842 270839
      275836 281830
 1.00 514266 515262 515256 514253 512250 511248 510245 508243
      506242 505244 505247 506251 506256 508259 509262 510264
      512267 514266
 1.00 505279 505273 504268 502264 499261 496256 494252 492252
      491255 491261 493266 495270 497273 500277 502279 505279
      505279
 1.50 512260 511258 511257 510255 509254 509253 508251 507250
      507251 508253 508256 509259 510259 511261 512260
 1.50 502275 503271 502267 500265 499263 497260 495257 493256
      492258 493261 495264 496268 498270 499272 501275 502275

$$




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