Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251811
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/0000 UTC THRU AUG 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST EWD INTO THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS/MID MS
VALLEY...

A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WITH EMBDD S/WV FEATURES WILL MOVE
ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THIS PD WITH SLIGHTLY STGR
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WORKING INTO THE NRN HI PLAINS ON FRI...WHILE
A DECENT IMPULSE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACRS UT INTO CO THUR
NIGHT INTO FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT
MAY LINGER THRU THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE ESPECIALLY THRU CO WHERE
DECENT RT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT WILL AID ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  EAST OF THE MTNS...A STRONGER FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL EXIST THUR NIGHT FROM THE NE NM/SE CO AND THE TX
PANHANDLE NEWD INTO ERN KS/MO AS POOL OF DEEPER MSTR AND
INSTABILITY ALIGNS WITH WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED
ACRS THE REGION.  INFLOW INTO THE FRONT MAY BE BALANCED BY DEEPER
LAYERED FLOW FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING OR
NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF STGR CONVECTION FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
NEWD THRU WRN OK/SE KS AND NRN MO..ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECENT RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET.  THAT UPR JET IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD ON FRI
WITH THE SFC FRONT ITSELF BECOMING A BIT MORE DIFFUSE AND THUS THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINS ON FRI WILL BECOME LESS DEFINED.  MODEL
QPF AS A RESULT SHOW QUITE A BIT MORE SPREAD BY FRI..WHILE THUR
NIGHT FOCUS IS RATHER WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF ARW..NSSL WRF
AND HRRR RUNS SUGGESTING POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS.


NE U.S./NRN MID ATLC...

REMNANTS OF WED NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE ERN
GT LAKES REGION THUR NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRI
EVENING.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS PRECEDING THE REMNANT MCS
WILL PRIME REGION FOR CONVECTION THUR AFTN THAT SHOULD LINGER THRU
THUR NIGHT WHICH SHOULD FOCUS THE MORE ORGANIZED RAINS ACRS NY
STATE/SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO PA.  STAYED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GIVEN WLY 85H FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM..BUT SOME NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE PSBL MAINLY EARLY IN THE PD GIVEN
1500 TO 2500 J/KG ML CAPES IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.


LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST...FLORIDA...

A SURGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES MOVING WEST ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AND WEST ACRS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS PD LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
PRIMARILY DIURNAL TSTMS THIS PD.  THIS SAME AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACRS SRN/CNTL FL WITH MDTLY DEEP
STG ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP A DECENT RISK OF CONVECTION
THERE COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND THE SE WHERE
A NOSE OF DRIER AIR WILL KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED. LARGE MODEL
SPREAD EXISTS ACRS THIS REGION GIVEN LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING..AND THUS HAVE RELIED ON A BLEND OF HI RES
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY GIVEN RATHER LOW PREDICTABILITY.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 472619 479620 485625 489635 492649 494646 495642 496636
      499633 501632 504635 508639 509646 513658 515664 516673
      519687 521703 522710 521716 520730 520736 519740 518747
      518754 516761 513770 512775 512782 515812 516841 516850
      516857 515862 514869 513877 512883 511890 509895 504905
      499913 492919 489922 485920 482919 481917 480911 481903
      483899 487891 489886 489880 491855 492843 492829 491814
      490805 488798 480774 475763 472755 465747 456752 452753
      451755 445758 443762 440769 437776 434784 432788 430793
      429798 427801 420818 411836 411849 410856 410863 410870
      407872 407878 407884 406888 408891 410903 411916 413921
      416925 421937 426954 424962 422967 419970 414976 408981
      402988 401995 401999 403001 436980 452971 457969 460969
      464979 466983 466989 464000 464007 463011 462013 456017
      453028 452039 460035 469036 477041 480044 482042 485037
      497021 503011 508003 518988 526971 526964 528959 529946
      530931 531926 531919 532913 532905 535893 541865 543860
      547856 550858 551865 552884 552901 553918 553933 550959
      549964 549972 548978 548981 551980 554979 558979 561982
      561987 561996 559002 556013 552025 547036 543045 538053
      533061 530066 527069 522073 524075 527076 537080 540081
      540084 535091 524105 521115 520122 521127 526151 529162
      533171 536178 535180 532179 528177 526175 523174 519172
      515167 512163 508159 504157 499157 492159 488151 481148
      482144 480140 477131 475126 475120 479109 483103 487092
      489084 483083 471081 463075 455074 450075 451078 448077
      442075 439072 434071 430066 427070 424074 421074 410074
 0.01 410074 406075 405080 400087 401093 404096 407095 411097
      412101 415105 420104 423102 426100 426094 424091 426086
      430084 436085 441086 445088 452094 454099 456101 468101
      473103 473108 471113 467115 457109 455111 453115 445116
      441115 438112 434110 430111 423115 413114 405117 397120
      395125 393128 394130 392136 391145 389149 383149 379142
      373142 369140 365143 362149 360148 360142 352135 351132
      351127 345122 342119 336117 333115 328115 321118 317119
      312118 305119 300118 297116 268095 259089 255086 252082
      246075 243071 239068 234062 231059 231055 228047 227043
      227039 240032 249033 255033 258031 260028 258025 255022
      254018 258016 263023 268024 272021 275019 281018 285017
      290017 302017 313015 317014 320011 322009 325011 329009
      332006 336999 340990 341986 342983 341980 324986 305981
      293979 289977 287974 284970 279967 274966 269963 268957
      268950 269946 268939 264935 261928 256920 252912 249905
      247896 247889 248886 248872 249866 248860 246848 242839
      241834 239830 238823 237818 235805 235800 237795 239789
      242785 246780 252775 255773 261771 265772 267775 272782
      276784 279784 287789 288794 290799 293802 293807 291819
      278831 279835 281842 285847 288850 293859 295864 294868
      293877 296880 296884 300893 306899 313903 315904 319904
      322900 326893 332889 335891 337891 338888 342876 345865
      345858 344853 343847 341842 344834 358821 358823 356826
      354836 361842 364850 366854 370857 376857 380854 393844
      395843 398849 400848 400844 401838 401832 403829 402825
      404815 404808 403804 396794 386795 388792 392787 395779
      396775 396770 399760 402752 407745 410739 407738 406732
      406728 407717 411706 414700 414693 417681 418676 420671
      426665 430663 433665 435669 436666 438660 442652 446643
      450634
 0.01 459624 453631 449637 444646 441655 437663 436666 434668
      433666 430663 428664 420672 418676 416683 414689 413696
      413703 411707 407717 406729 406734 407738 410739 409742
      405747 400756 396772 394782 389790 387795 396794 402803
      403807 404814 402825 401836 400844 400848 398848 395842
      393844 386849 378855 374857 371858 368856 363847 355835
      355829 357825 358821 355822 352826 349829 344836 341838
      341843 343848 344853 345859 345865 342876 339886 337891
      334890 331889 327892 322900 318904 311903 307900 304897
      301894 300890 296881 294878 294874 295865 292856 288850
      283845 279834 284826 285824 287823 291819 292815 293808
      293803 291799 288795 287789 280784 275784 271780 265773
      262771 257772 251776 244782 240788 238791 236795 235800
      235806 237818 239826 240832 242838 246850 248861 249868
      248873 248884 247889 247895 250906 253915 269944 268954
      268960 270964 277967 282969 285971 288976 292979 305980
      316984 322986 325985 335982 338981 340980 342982 339993
      335001 333006 330008 327011 322010 318013 310016 300017
      291017 282018 276019 272021 268025 265025 263023 256016
      257031 255033 248033 239032 232036 227038 227043 231058
      241070 247076 252083 258088 265093 295115 299118 305119
      309119 310117 314118 319119 323117 327116 330114 333115
      340118 346123 350126 351128 351131 355138 358140 360143
      360146 362148 365143 369140 379143 382147 384149 390149
      391143 392137 394133 393128 396123 398119 403117 415114
      421115 426113 433110 437111 440114 443116 448117 461110
      468115 471113 473108 473103 470101 459101 456101 453096
      444088 441086 435084 429084 426086 424091 426096 427099
      425100 422103 418105 413103 412098 408095 405096 401095
      400088 403083
 0.01 403083 406075 410074 414074 424074 427071 429067 431066
      433068 435071 440073 442075 447077 451078 451074 455074
      464075 471081 481082 487083 489086 488090 487096 484102
      477114 475119 475126 478134 479139 482142 482149 487150
      490155 491158 495159 503157 507158 510160 516169 522174
      530178 536180 535176 531165 528155 526150 525144 522131
      520123 521113 523107 526102 536089 540083 538080 533079
      530077 526075 524075 522072 525071 532064 537056 542046
      547035 553023 556012 559000 561994 561986 561982 559982
      556979 552980 548979 551956 553930 553915 552898 551867
      550858 549856 546857 542860 541869 535893 532906 532910
      531915 531921 528949 525974 521982 516991 507005 502012
      497022 486037 479044 471038 467035 461035 453039 450037
      452034 453027 455020 456016 458015 461013 464010 465999
      466984 462975 461971 458969 450973 443976 436980 419991
      411997 404001 401000 401996 401988 407982 411980 414976
      417971 421968 425961 426956 425953 425947 423942 419933
      416924 413921 412917 410910 410903 408897 408891 406889
      407885 407879 408871 410870 410867 410854 411848 411842
      412835 414829 418821 423810 426803 429799 431790 434783
      442766 443761 446757 450755 453753 459751 462748 468748
      470752 475763 480775 485788 488798 490806 491814 492829
      491861 489883 488889 486892 482902 480905 480912 481917
      483919 487922 490921 498914 503906 506900 509894 511890
      512882 515869 515862 516857 516850 516843 514806 512779
      513772 514767 517758 518752 518745 520735 521721 522709
      520691 518682 517676 514660 511649 509642 506637 502633
      500632 495637 494642 493649 491648 490644 489637 487633
      485626 483623
 0.01 475690 473687 472680 465678 457680 451684 444689 439695
      446695 449696 454695 456692 460691 468689 473695 475690
 0.01 467893 467888 466883 465881 464876 464871 462868 462864
      462869 462873 461878 461881 461886 461891 463893 463896
      465895 467893
 0.25 509086 508084 508083 507081 507079 505078 503079 503080
      502083 502085 502088 502090 502091 504091 505091 506091
      508089 509086
 0.25 505857 506852 506846 506841 504836 502839 501843 500847
      500850 499855 499860 500865 502867 504864 505859 505857
 0.25 500757 500755 498753 496752 495753 493755 493756 492758
      492759 491762 492764 494764 496763 497762 498760 499760
      500757
 0.25 453005 454999 454995 452994 447993 441995 438003 433011
      429020 426030 427033 431035 436036 440035 442022 446014
      452008 453005
 0.25 432735 431730 428727 426730 424734 423742 423753 423763
      423775 422778 424783 427777 430769 431759 431749 431737
      432735
 0.25 421782 417781 412783 408785 405789 405794 407799 410802
      412806 414802 416797 417792 419788 420783 421782
 0.25 422011 423006 420004 415003 403007 396009 388013 384018
      379014 374016 368013 365012 365007 370004 375999 381995
      385988 390984 399977 403971 406965 408956 409952 409945
      405939 403931 399916 398912 395911 390907 387909 385913
      382921 375935 373941 371948 368956 365961 356975 353981
      350989 344001 340015 334028 335031 338033 346035 345046
      349051 355054 359055 362057 361063 359067 366072 369077
      372084 376087 382087 386088 387083 397071 400064 402060
      404058 406056 405054 402051 403050 408047 408044 404042
      403039 405035 407033 405030 402030 400033 396037 382036
      378031 381025 387021 395024 402027 406026 408024 422011
 0.25 386122 387120 386119 386118 385117 383116 382115 381114
      380114 380115 378117 378119 377120 376121 375121 375123
      374125 375126 376125 377124 379124 380125 382124 383124
      384124 386123 386122
 0.25 371127 373125 372123 371124 371127 371127
 0.25 366106 367104 367101 367100 365099 365098 363098 361098
      360100 361102 362103 363104 364105 366106 366106
 0.25 357938 359930 358920 356917 352917 346922 339932 336937
      330941 325940 321936 321932 323929 326922 326916 320919
      312928 310932 306932 301929 292919 288916 283912 277910
      275911 274917 274925 274934 275943 277950 281955 285958
      297964 303966 311967 323961 330960 336959 343956 348953
      354947 357938
 0.25 314035 314032 312031 307032 303034 299035 295036 291039
      291043 295045 298043 303042 308041 311039 313036 314035
 0.25 290087 288079 284072 279067 279064 281061 287056 289052
      289047 274050 270049 265048 258044 251041 246041 244046
      246054 249062 252069 256077 260082 268086 282093 285093
      287092 290087
 0.25 283804 281799 277795 273792 267791 261792 255793 250798
      247802 249809 251810 253810 256812 260815 265818 270821
      273821 276820 276817 273815 265808 261805 267803 278805
      283804
 0.25 276904 275900 275898 273894 271892 269891 267888 266888
      267892 268894 269898 269902 270904 272906 274906 276904
 0.50 446002 444000 443001 442002 443004 444004 446003 446002
 0.50 400947 400940 398933 397925 397920 395920 390921 388919
      386921 382934 377946 375951 371956 364965 358976 353985
      350992 348000 345013 344020 343025 345028 349027 352023
      358009 363000 371990 373986 376985 377986 379988 382987
      385981 389979 392974 397961 398953 400947
 0.50 382072 382069 382068 381067 380065 378063 377062 375063
      373064 372066 373067 374069 375071 376073 377076 378076
      379076 380076 381074 381072 382072
 0.50 306952 305948 303945 299942 296938 290935 286935 282939
      281943 282947 286952 290954 296956 301955 306952
 0.50 276079 275073 273069 268064 264062 259059 255061 255067
      257073 260078 264081 272081 276079
 0.50 266812 264811 264810 262809 261809 260809 260811 262813
      264812 265813 266813 266812
 0.50 261053 262051 261051 260051 259053 261053 261053
 0.50 258803 257803 256803 255804 256804 257803 258803
 1.00 391943 391933 386938 382942 378949 370963 362974 358979
      354987 351994 351998 353001 357002 359999 363992 370979
      380967 384963 388955 390949 391943
 1.50 380961 379959 377959 375960 375961 373963 373964 375963
      377964 378963 379962 380961
 1.50 361989 362987 362985 362983 360981 359983 357985 357986
      356987 355989 354991 354994 355996 357996 358995 359994
      360992 360991 361989

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