Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 072139
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

RETRANSMITTED DUE TO DAY 2 CODING ERROR

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

OUTER BANKS OF NC
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WHIRL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS
ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY
BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND GFS...THE 18Z DAY 1 QPF ALSO
FOLLOWED IT AND THE 00Z DAY 1 QPF HELD SERVE.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC
VERSIONS OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN
BETTER WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.
 DAY 1 QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---
TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS
ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---WHILE A
SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAYS 2/3...

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

ROTH/ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 467624 469630 468636 465652 458681 455695 450710 447722
      442735 438738 432742 422740 416739 411742 404745 399749
      389757 384759 377761 373764 372767 375769 390766 395767
      402767 414769 425772 438774 451777 458776 464776 469773
      473770 476770 478767 484766 488767 491774 495778 498784
      501789 503796 508815 512831 516845 518853 518864 519887
      519894 518899 518902 515919 512934 509944 509949 507954
      505962 502965 497967 495970 491971 487972 480972 465972
      452971 439970 436969 433968 425968 423967 419966 416961
      411957 407952 403947 398945 395943 392943 387940 383937
      379931 375928 371925 368921 366918 366915 372913 374911
      378911 380906 377902 373898 367887 364882 359884 354886
      348884 345880 341873 341871 338869 332868 328868 325870
      321873 314872 312871 310867 310862 313856 316851 319845
      321831 323824 320821 317822 310833 307836 301835 294835
      294830 300821 308810 317804 325796 329790 331789 332785
      325784 319782 310778 305774 303766 302758 302752 304744
      306738 308732 316730 323721 326718 329716 329713 332708
      331705 328703 326703 325699 326693 329688 344672 361657
      393637 421640 450612 465616 467624
 0.01 536207 537199 536193 534184 532179 530175 527169 525171
      516168 511167 507168 506168 505171 506177 511183 516185
      518189 524195 527199 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519266 518258 513245 512239 508232 505229 499226
      495221 493214 489210 488208 485206 481208 481211 484212
      486215 486218 493220 497226 499232 501238 502246 506261
      512271 513274 512277 507274 502262 499256 495250 489248
      485251 486256 489263 490270 493277 496282 500287 506289
      511287 515281 518276
 0.25 474810 472803 466799 458798 451796 442797 433798 415801
      406802 396803 389803 386804 383807 376810 372811 368813
      358825 351839 353842 356841 360836 364829 366825 366820
      371823 368831 368836 372838 376838 379836 386834 384837
      381839 380842 383841 390837 397834 405830 412827 419824
      428822 437821 445822 453823 459826 464826 467824 471822
      473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466883 465890 463895
      461903 460908 461913 465916 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454651 452646 448642 446642 443643 435649 430652
      425654 416655 408649 404647 400647 390649 381652 371657
      364663 356669 342682 340687 339691 340694 343699 344703
      344709 340718 336726 332735 328744 323752 322763 324768
      327771 333772 336771 347768 366760 383751 400742 408735
      417730 423723 429716 439699 443690 447680 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 438672 436666 434664 428664 420664 414662 411661
      408657 402652 395651 385653 376657 369661 357672 352677
      347684 345688 346692 349700 349709 346719 344726 341734
      333748 330755 329759 330763 333766 338765 347763 364756
      380749 393740 406731 413725 418719 423713 428707 432699
      435691 437684 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419689 415681 408672 404666 399662 394659 388658
      380660 374664 365672 360677 356683 354689 354695 357703
      358710 353724 351730 348736 340746 338752 341758 343759
      347759 353756 366750 377743 382739 388735 396726 417708
      420703 421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408685 401678 398674 394671 386667 381667
      377669 370677 365685 365693 366701 364713 360722 355731
      349740 344748 346753 353752 363747 371743 378734 384725
      390717 400712 407705 410701 412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395689 391681 389677 385677 379682 374689
      371697 367714 364722 360729 351742 350746 352749 359746
      366742 372736 376729 380723 384714 388708 394703 397700
      399695 399695
 3.00 380700 380697 379698 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705
      376706 375708 376709 378708 378707 379705 380702 380700
      380700

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.