Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 29/0000 UTC THRU DEC 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

THE AXIS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD (INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.).
PRECIPITATION RATES BE MOST ROBUST ALONG THIS PW AXIS WHERE BEST
LI`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C (I.E. WEAKEST STATIC
STABILITY)...HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS FAR TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD AREA OF FORCING BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITHIN A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WBC)
WHERE DUAL UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE SHEARING
OUT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE (SUPPLYING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX) AND WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET STREAK (SUPPLYING THE LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN...WITH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE PCPN SHIELD ANAFRONTAL OR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONTAL
BNDRY). OVERALL...WPC CONTINUED WITH A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE
QPF DETAILS...THOUGH UTILIZING THE MOST RECENT NSSL-WRF OUTPUT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO CAPTURE SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS.
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN .25 AND .50+ INTO THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION (PTNS OF WRN/CEN NC
INTO SOUTHERN VA).


...PAC NW...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN-CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS REMAIN= IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION DAY 1 AS AN INITIAL
AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AHEAD OF THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE OR/SOUTHERN WA CASCADES...BLUE MTS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON...INTO THE BITTEROOTS/SAWTOOTH OF ID AND FROM THE WASATCH
INTO THE TETONS AND INTO THE NW COLORADO ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS (SNOW). FOR QPF DETAILS...WPC
UTILIZED AN ENSEMBLE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE
HIGH-RES ECMWF. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
DETAILS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 528175 530169 529165 527157 528150 529136 529125 526119
      524118 521120 516122 508124 504124 500121 494117 489114
      484108 481101 478094 475086 472069 471059 472047 472042
      474036 473029 471024 471019 470014 460003 452000 447995
      438983 435975 433968 431958 431948 433939 433934 432929
      430926 427926 423926 416927 411931 408940 406945 403947
      399952 396959 394968 391975 382983 378989 376992 376996
      374999 374004 374010 375013 375018 377021 381025 386031
      390036 392040 390045 388047 384048 378044 370043 368051
      365052 365054 373056 376058 377061 374063 371062 369060
      366061 366063 368067 371069 372074 373082 376089 378098
      381097 391096 394099 395095 398087 399083 402085 405092
      407093 407096 406098 403104 401107 398106 395103 396105
      394108 387111 380114 379116 378121 376128 381131 389136
      395135 398136 398140 396145 390144 395163 397171 402174
      405180 408179 410175 413172 414175 414179 421192 422196
      421199 418200 411201 411203 414205 421206 420209 421212
      422214 421217 419220 417224 419226 421228 420231 414233
      410239 405241 402242 399245 401249 404250 409254 423256
      436253 444253 449251 457250 460250 462247 467242 470239
      473239 480241 485239 489241 489236 485235 482232 483226
      488224 492218 495216 498219 504223 508226 510230 513234
      515230 515227 520209 520200 520193 519188 514174 509167
      506163 503160 500159 494153 488151 485149 483146 477141
      481140 485141 487145 491147 494149 498150 507153 512158
      516163 521169 525176 527177 528175
 0.01 476192 476189 475187 475186 475184 474182 474181 474179
      473177 472178 471180 471183 470183 469183 467184 467185
      466187 465189 466191 468190 468189 470189 471190 473191
      474193 476192
 0.01 468692 467678 465672 463668 462661 462654 462649 460641
      457633 454629 451629 448637 448643 449650 451662 453667
      454673 457682 459684 459688 457693 453700 450709 442714
      441718 442723 438721 438724 440729 437731 440742 435743
      428746 427746 426751 427764 428771 425775 421777 421783
      419792 418799 419801 422801 423796 428788 430785 431781
      433769 435773 435768 436764 439760 442750 447749 448746
      449741 449736 448730 450727 453724 458723 461721 464718
      467707 468692
 0.01 481874 481868 480863 475856 473849 471845 469843 463841
      458835 455826 452811 452796 451790 449786 445788 444794
      443798 439801 440805 436808 433810 431814 427822 430822
      433824 436829 436835 442829 445827 446825 448827 448831
      445834 444839 444843 443853 441857 439862 435864 431864
      422862 416868 412875 414877 418876 416873 418870 421870
      429867 439867 447861 453856 457857 459863 462871 465875
      466878 465881 463888 462893 463900 465905 467908 469906
      476885 481874
 0.01 432730 430729 429730 428731 429732 431731 432730 432730
 0.01 428831 427829 427826 426829 426831 428831 428831
 0.01 408683 402682 398685 396686 394684 395680 394675 389676
      386680 382687 377693 369700 366705 363708 351719 345724
      337729 323738 318746 311753 305758 299764 294769 289776
      288780 286784 281786 278789 275795 283800 291803 301803
      303804 307802 314797 316797 317800 315804 311811 306820
      303824 300827 294831 289833 288837 280852 276858 272867
      270872 268876 266886 264894 260903 253919 254928 255933
      257937 265942 272947 279949 289950 294950 298948 307946
      314942 321939 331934 336928 340921 345914 350908 355899
      360881 367861 380827 387811 389805 390799 392787 393778
      392765 391762 391757 392745 397738 401730 403725 404720
      406708 407703 407695 408693 407688 408683
 0.01 422086 422084 421082 420081 419081 418080 416079 415079
      413080 414082 416083 418085 419085 419086 421088 422086
 0.01 413139 411137 410136 408133 406133 405131 403130 401131
      400132 399134 397136 399138 400139 401139 402140 404141
      405142 407142 409142 411141 413139
 0.01 287772 286770 284769 281768 278769 274770 272772 271774
      270777 271781 274781 276783 277781 279780 281777 284775
      286773 287772
 0.01 271793 270791 269791 268790 267789 265789 263790 263792
      263794 264795 266795 268795 269794 271793 271793
 0.01 267808 268806 268804 267803 265803 263804 261804 259804
      258805 257805 256807 255808 255810 256812 256813 257814
      258814 260814 262813 263813 264812 266811 266810 267808
      267808
 0.01 254820 254818 253817 252816 251815 249815 248815 246815
      244816 243817 243819 243821 244823 245824 247824 248824
      250824 252823 253822 254821 254820
 0.25 482204 482203 480202 479201 477202 476202 475203 474204
      473205 473206 474208 476209 478208 480206 482204 482204
 0.25 466212 465211 464210 462208 461208 460208 459210 460211
      462211 463212 465212 466212
 0.25 462223 461217 459213 456205 455201 455195 456189 458186
      462179 463176 460172 455165 452162 447162 445182 441185
      442191 443194 444200 445204 449206 452209 453212 451214
      444216 438214 433220 432224 432229 436231 439230 446228
      452225 460224 462223
 0.25 457237 453235 450235 446237 441237 437237 432237 430240
      431242 436242 440242 444240 447240 451240 455238 457237
 0.25 447070 447068 447067 446068 446070 447070 447070
 0.25 423060 421058 423060 423061 423060
 0.25 416118 417116 415115 413114 412115 411115 410116 408115
      406115 405116 406117 408118 409119 411120 412120 413120
      415119 416118
 0.25 411068 410067 408066 408065 407065 405064 403065 401065
      400067 401068 402069 401072 403073 404072 405072 406073
      408073 408072 410070 411068
 0.25 394703 393698 391695 387694 383697 378703 376707 372710
      369712 365716 360724 354729 345732 343735 342739 335743
      329749 324756 323764 324769 328769 332767 335764 340755
      348753 352749 355752 356758 356764 355768 350776 342777
      338795 334802 329808 324813 319814 316817 307830 301838
      296845 292850 289858 286867 283875 269906 269917 272919
      275917 285906 289899 292891 297882 302876 311862 317847
      327831 331826 334827 338830 339833 339839 339844 337847
      332853 332865 333873 332879 332885 336885 341880 346873
      354859 358852 360843 360837 362832 365825 373807 380792
      383784 382772 382759 383749 387728 394703
 0.25 391070 389070 388070 389072 390072 391070
 0.25 384086 384085 383083 382083 384086 384086
 0.50 379730 377726 372727 369725 366728 365731 364737 366741
      368748 371749 376749 377745 378739 378734 379730
 0.50 372779 371775 368770 366772 364776 359783 355792 352800
      349809 349815 350820 354823 358821 362812 365803 368795
      372786 372779
 0.50 303846 305844 303843 301844 300846 300847 298849 298850
      297851 298852 300851 301849 302848 303846 303846
 0.50 296872 297870 297868 295867 294868 292870 292871 291872
      290874 290877 291876 292876 294874 296872 296872

$$





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