Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 040710
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT AS EVIDENT BY BOTH THE GLOBAL AND CAM GUIDANCE AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN ALSO REMAINS TIED TO THE
TOPOGRAPHY IN SOUTHEAST AZ INTO WESTERN NM AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL-CENTRAL CO. AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT
RATHER QUICKLY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL NEVERTHELESS BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC QPF
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ON A 5 KM SCALE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
.50-.75 INCH ALONG THE S/SW FACING SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
AZ...WESTERN NM...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.