Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 301849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 01/0000 UTC THRU OCT 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ND EARLY DAY 1
AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITATION
IN THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT---LIFTING TO
THE NORTH OF THE BORDER AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.  DAY 1 QPF
WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .10-.25" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
FROM FAR NORTHEAST MT INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF ND.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY

THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE SLOW MOVING
TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL REMAIN 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES ARW---NMM AND
NSSL WRF IN SHOWING MAX PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS REGIONS FROM
NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO---WITH LESSER TOTALS NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE HI RES RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AXIS ALONG THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MOST OF
THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.   ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE HIGH---THE
PERSISTENT INFLOW INTO THIS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL AND RUNOFF ISSUES THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO---POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA
WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWER.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED
LOW---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MEAN TROF POSITION OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES POSITION.
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND
ENHANCED UVVS FROM WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WASATCH OF UT.  EARLY SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
WY AND NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES OF CO.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

AN AXIS OF 1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES WILL PERSIST DAY 1 ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PUSHING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY---WITH MAX AMOUNTS DEPICTED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.  THESE HEIGHT
FALLS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THE UVVS IN THE CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OFFSHORE.  THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS SPREAD DAY 1.  THE HI RES ARW---NMMB
AND NAM CONEST ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS---BRINGING HEAVY TOTALS AS
FAR WEST AS WESTERN TO CENTRAL CT AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.  THE
1200 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED WESTWARD FROM ITS 0000 UTC
SOLUTION---BUT REMAIN IN THE MORE EASTERN CAMP OF THE GFS AND CMC.
 AT THE MOMENT---WPC IS LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM/HI RES MODEL
SOLUTION AND TOWARD A MAX CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC---PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND--WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 565019 564012 565005 565995 564977 564968 562962 557954
      548954 544956 539957 530961 523963 517957 513954 508954
      501949 474929 473925 474924 478920 483915 496900 503893
      499885 495881 492879 484876 475876 465877 451883 417902
      413904 408905 405906 402905 396903 390904 386911 379919
      376922 371925 367927 361927 356927 352925 348923 345919
      339912 333906 323902 306897 298896 293897 289899 284906
      282908 282913 282927 283931 284933 286937 288939 287942
      285947 280956 269969 268972 272974 277972 292973 308963
      317959 325954 325949 322946 320943 320941 322939 336939
      347939 357943 361945 364949 362956 360960 355967 348973
      344976 342979 340984 335986 327989 324997 330001 333004
      338004 342003 347002 353002 357001 364998 373995 382991
      387988 392987 400982 411969 418965 427960 435954 439952
      442954 450973 456988 457001 457014 457022 455028 453030
      450031 444031 441032 436035 431042 429049 425051 423054
      424059 421081 422088 424093 424099 419101 416102 413099
      410096 409092 412081 415071 415061 417051 417043 416037
      411028 405027 402027 400029 397033 394038 393043 390047
      385053 383058 379061 368061 367065 369070 371074 372081
      375087 376093 377097 386094 388094 390096 390102 387108
      384111 379117 380121 378126 376132 377137 379141 381143
      384143 390137 403124 409120 414121 416119 421121 423126
      425127 429125 431120 436118 441119 443124 445130 443136
      443142 445145 448151 449156 451158 454159 465157 469160
      473161 477159 480155 482150 485146 492140 498133 501119
      501113 500108 496097 493085 492079 494074 499069 507071
      515070 531067
 0.01 531067 536067 539066 543065 546062 549059 552057 556054
      559051 561048 562040 563033 564027 565019
 0.01 533155 535136 534128 532120 530114 524113 520125 519135
      517137 516143 512157 507172 506180 507185 509186 518193
      523192 525187 530173 531162 531157 533155
 0.01 501227 500219 497214 493211 486209 481210 475212 474214
      475218 478220 484221 488222 489224 491227 492230 493234
      495233 499230 501227
 0.01 448700 444690 438683 432679 424677 416675 410671 403665
      395668 387675 385678 386684 391709 392715 395720 400728
      405735 412738 417737 421735 429734 433732 436729 442721
      445712 447708 448702 448700
 0.01 460064 459062 457060 456059 454057 452056 451058 451061
      452063 454066 455068 457068 459067 459066 460064
 0.01 433754 431749 427747 418743 414743 411747 405756 402760
      398760 394759 390761 383768 379771 377776 371786 371790
      375792 380794 386794 388797 388800 387806 387814 389820
      393819 397816 403807 407804 413803 419802 423802 425803
      430797 432791 431783 432776 432769 433754
 0.01 291809 291805 288802 286798 284795 279789 273785 265783
      257782 252783 249786 243790 238795 235804 235813 237818
      239820 244826 250830 264836 273837 282836 282826 287820
      289813 291809
 0.25 555029 556018 556007 553001 550997 540991 536989 529989
      524990 520994 517991 512990 510990 508995 507004 506008
      503008 497005 477999 473999 471002 470007 472014 473017
      476019 479018 481020 483028 482037 482042 483047 492055
      503059 509059 514058 526055 536051 545046 552040 554034
      555029
 0.25 484100 484096 483093 483088 482085 480083 478081 476084
      476086 476090 476094 477098 478101 480103 483102 484100
 0.25 477897 476894 473891 470889 466888 454896 441904 430912
      424915 417917 408918 401915 399914 394913 390920 384936
      370963 368970 367976 368979 373985 375986 380986 393980
      403972 414963 426954 431949 435943 440937 445934 452930
      457925 467916 471912 474907 476901 477897
 0.25 456113 452107 449102 446097 443094 438090 434093 432099
      432106 433110 436112 441114 446118 450117 452115 456113
 0.25 437710 433698 431692 427689 423687 418686 408686 403687
      400690 399697 399705 399711 401716 407726 410730 415729
      422728 427725 431722 437712 437710
 0.25 409059 409049 407045 403046 399053 397058 396062 394066
      390071 388074 389077 391081 395081 400081 402080 406075
      407069 407065 409059
 0.25 403778 402776 400774 398774 396774 395775 393776 392778
      392779 391780 392781 392782 394783 395784 396784 397784
      399783 401782 401781 402779 403778
 0.25 281807 281801 279798 273794 266793 258792 255794 253798
      254806 252814 253818 255821 258823 261824 263822 264817
      272819 276819 279817 280809 281807
 0.50 549020 549014 548011 541011 530019 519027 504028 499032
      494037 490043 491046 493049 500052 506052 514051 520049
      527047 533044 538040 543035 547028 549020
 0.50 463910 465905 463901 456903 446909 441912 436916 427923
      422927 416929 407923 397917 391927 385940 380952 376957
      374964 373969 375974 377979 380980 384979 390977 400971
      419956 423953 427948 429940 433937 452922 459916 463910
 0.50 446111 445109 444107 442106 440107 440108 441110 442111
      443112 445111 446111
 0.50 431711 430705 429701 424696 418693 411690 407692 404694
      403704 403710 405715 410721 412724 414725 421722 427718
      431711
 0.50 276805 275800 272797 268796 264796 259796 257798 259803
      260807 264810 266812 271814 275813 275809 276805
 1.00 422709 421704 420701 418700 414699 412698 409700 407702
      407705 408709 410711 412713 414714 418714 421711 422709
 1.00 419945 414943 410940 407935 404929 403926 400926 396929
      389939 386945 385952 380963 381970 382973 386974 391972
      396970 405962 414954 418950 419945
 1.50 407952 405950 405947 404938 402934 400932 397934 395938
      391944 388950 385959 384970 391970 395968 398966 402961
      406954 407952
 2.00 402956 400953 402947 402939 400937 398938 395943 391947
      388953 386956 387961 389967 393968 398963 401959 402956

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.