Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161913
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 17/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~
THE BAND OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC CLOSED
500 HPA LOW, WITH A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF PWS ABOVE 1.75" LIFTING
THROUGH.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILTED WITH TIME, LEADING TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINS, MAINLY INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS AND MOSTLY
OVER MAINE.  THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED TRAINING OF
RAINFALL BANDS IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION, SETTING UP
THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE THIS
TRAINING OCCURS.  RATHER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF MAINE, WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE QPF DETAILS AMONGST
THE MODELS.


GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~
THE STRONG AND COMPACT 500 HPA TROF/CLOSED LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING/LIFTING OUT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ONLY VERY MODEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SINCE
THERE WILL BE BE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEMS.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.


PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE UPSTREAM 500 HPA TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS CLOSE TO THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL OFFSHORE
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL MAINLY SOUTHERLY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINS OFFSHORE AND DIRECTED INTO B.C., THOUGH
MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH-TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN
WA AND ESPECIALLY THE OLYMPICS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE RAINS THESE
AREAS.



DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A PAIR OF MOISTURE PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONES MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AND THE COASTAL RANGES/CASCADES OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH THE SECOND NEARING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LIMITED INTRUSION INLAND DUE
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
18Z-00Z WPC QPF TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARDS THE 00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
RE-FORECAST WHICH DOES A VERY GOOD JOB CAPTURING ONSHORE FLOW
EVENTS INTO THE WEST COAST.


GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
WITHIN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT/SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE REGION.  CONTINUITY HAS
WELL-MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION PER THE GENERALLY
AGREEABLE GUIDANCE, THOUGH AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND PER THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  FOR POTENTIAL
SNOW IMPACTS, SEE WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
DETAILS.


SOUTHERN ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM PORTIONS OF AZ ACROSS NM INTO CO, BRINGING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE NORM FOR MID-OCTOBER.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
RE-FORECAST HERE, WHICH MADE FOR A NICE COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITHIN
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUITE.


TEXAS
~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEGREE OF RETURN FLOW
ANTICIPATED, SHOWING A MORE LIMITED INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
LONE STAR STATE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE 09Z SREF MEAN
INDICATES CAPE VALUES RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
(WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY) BEFORE
RECEDING ON SUNDAY -- THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING IS MINIMAL AT BEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED FROM THE 12Z WPC CONTINUITY ACROSS SOUTHERN TX,
RESEMBLING A COMPROMISE OF THE CURRENTLY WETTER 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN/12Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE BEST
CONTINUITY POSSIBLE.  THE 12Z NAM WAS ELIMINATED FROM
CONSIDERATION DUE TO ITS OUTLIER STATUS AMONGST THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TX.

TERRY/ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 482616 489622 492625 495630 500643 502650 504658 505666
      507672 512682 518695 523707 526718 531730 533748 535769
      536781 538800 539809 538816 536824 535832 531858 527871
      522884 521889 518895 515905 509915 507919 502924 490938
      488944 489953 490961 494964 498966 503967 508966 513968
      516973 515978 514981 509991 506993 501995 497995 493993
      485988 482984 479977 476967 474960 471955 460935 456926
      454921 453914 452906 453901 451899 447886 443876 440873
      435869 431866 427862 425858 422853 422850 424844 426838
      428835 434825 434819 429821 420820 414810 412805 409803
      406804 394805 391806 389808 384810 382810 381807 380804
      382799 387796 397790 420782 427776 429774 430771 431766
      433756 434749 434742 435739 434735 431728 424721 408713
      398711 392711 387710 369705 360702 356699 356693 361673
      368665 371661 376657 393645
 0.01 533222 535213 534206 531194 526183 523178 520175 511170
      507171 504176 505183 507189 512199 517209 523219 529224
      533222
 0.01 517276 519269 520261 519247 517238 512229 503212 497205
      494203 489202 473205 458210 452213 443215 435217 427220
      417218 414219 411223 405228 397231 387228 384230 382234
      381239 383244 385248 388251 403262 423268 430266 435267
      440266 444268 447269 447273 448283 452290 456294 461297
      464299 468302 478306 486306 493303 506295 513286 517276
 0.01 442781 441779 439780 438782 438783 437784 437787 438789
      440786 441784 442781
 0.01 354117 350112 345107 342100 341091 339083 337081 333082
      331085 332088 334097 336104 338113 343118 350120 354117
 0.25 514272 517262 516252 512239 510232 506226 499216 492212
      485212 479211 476212 474214 472216 478218 484219 489224
      488231 483232 479229 473229 468231 461232 456231 450234
      446238 442243 445248 452252 461261 465267 466274 467280
      470288 474292 482294 487295 493294 503289 507286 510281
      514272
 0.25 528777 528765 527753 522732 516715 508700 501687 492673
      489667 485662 480657 474653 468650 464646 464638 459634
      456633 452636 450638 446640 438639 426640 417642 408645
      396652 390657 385663 381669 380672 381677 385686 389692
      400700 405703 411705 418706 423709 429712 434717 438722
      444725 449729 454735 459740 463746 466753 469766 469776
      466783 464791 461800 461811 463823 465831 469840 471846
      472850 471854 467862 465871 465882 465888 467892 469894
      474893 479889 489879 499868 507857 515843 520829 523821
      525810 527792 528777
 0.50 512268 514262 514254 512244 509236 504228 500222 496219
      493222 491236 484236 477231 470233 464237 461239 460245
      464252 469258 473266 474277 476281 479284 484290 488291
      492290 498288 504284 507281 509276 512268
 0.50 523770 522759 520750 513735 507720 501705 494692 485681
      476673 466665 457657 451654 445653 437655 431655 419651
      412651 407653 401657 395663 397673 395680 395685 397690
      401694 406697 419702 429707 439715 445716 450718 461727
      466730 470734 480742 485745 490749 494755 498762 495777
      492784 488793 479802 475807 472815 477855 473870 474873
      478872 484868 488866 494862 498857 503851 510838 513831
      516823 520807 522800 522789 522779 523770
 1.00 510259 510250 508243 505236 500230 499228 497227 495230
      497239 495243 491241 488240 485240 482242 481241 478234
      474234 473238 473242 474247 481257 484265 487270 492276
      495283 503278 509261 510259
 1.00 502826 503824 503821 502819 501818 500818 499819 498819
      497821 496822 496825 495827 495828 496830 497831 499830
      500829 501829 502827 502826
 1.00 487704 486697 484692 478686 465676 458672 454671 449673
      440674 430676 422675 417674 415678 412681 409686 415691
      430698 437702 445705 461709 468709 477711 482709 487704
 1.50 503273 503265 502257 503252 503247 498248 493245 490243
      487243 484248 485254 487260 492266 496270 501273 503273
 1.50 462696 461691 460688 456685 451683 445682 440684 437686
      436690 438693 443696 447697 453700 458700 462696
 2.00 502270 501264 499259 498255 495251 493248 490244 487246
      487252 488257 491261 493264 496268 501270 502270

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 486591 502635 499640 496642 492640 484635 479636 473637
      463639 452643 442648 430651 425651 421649 418646 413645
      401648 393647 419631 486591
 0.01 535215 537208 537202 535197 535190 536182 533177 529169
      527166 523164 516157 507146 500143 495142 492138 485131
      477128 473130 472133 472136 475139 481141 486146 488149
      486153 482153 472149 465143 460143 457145 452149 448153
      447158 450165 449175 453177 455181 457184 460183 464181
      467178 477180 481182 483186 484188 484193 480195 469199
      441213 434214 428216 422220 420222 418221 416217 414214
      412214 407215 405219 402223 397223 386220 379217 370217
      364219 360224 358228 356232 356238 357243 358246 362250
      373253 393259 409264 418266 421266 427267 436265 443263
      457262 460261 466263 475265 479267 481270 488277 489279
      490283 489291 492300 495302 499304 503302 506299 510292
      513284 516275 519263 519248 518236 516225 515220 517215
      521216 525219 526223 529224 533219 535215
 0.01 521694 520681 517671 513660 508653 503657 500660 498659
      482664 469673 458686 450697 444702 436707 427719 423727
      421737 419746 417754 412769 402780 399783 395784 389790
      382795 377801 369811 365817 364821 367825 376826 383823
      397825 405827 413827 417828 419830 422832 424834 424837
      424845 423849 422860 419862 417861 415858 408859 405859
      405864 409868 415872 422874 427874 431876 434874 439874
      445877 451884 458896 462901 467906 482897 490885 494878
      498873 508861 513854 518846 522838 523829 524819 522805
      520795 519782 517776 516769 512759 511753 512749 515742
      520724 521715 520705 521694
 0.01 382081 381054 382042 380040 375039 370039 366040 363044
      360045 354040 352035 354031 358023 358015 357010 354007
      352007 343010 339017 337022 336029 334039 334045 335049
      337053 341055 346057 349061 343067 338072 331076 329075
      327081 333097 342111 347118 352121 354118 353115 347106
      344098 341089 341085 339083 338080 343070 346067 349068
      352077 357083 361085 361079 362072 366071 369073 370077
      372082 373085 377086 382081
 0.01 277972 276966 272962 268959 263957 255958 250955 245951
      239951 235954 233959 233975 234982 238985 248991 253993
      260992 270987 272982 274976 277972
 0.25 481606 486620 483624 478626 473627 470628 465629 460631
      455633 452634 447636 443637 440634 436633 433633 481606
 0.25 530200 529189 527183 525179 519172 513167 508164 503165
      500168 499171 500175 504182 511188 516195 522203 527206
      530202 530200
 0.25 514264 515253 514241 508224 505217 500209 495205 488203
      481204 473206 462211 456214 447216 442217 439219 436223
      435228 433232 430234 427235 422234 417234 411235 409237
      405237 399235 395235 398243 401246 405246 413246 421248
      437249 452247 458246 465247 472249 481254 486259 490265
      499281 504283 507282 509278 514264
 0.25 516811 514803 512798 507794 501793 496797 492801 486811
      480824 478830 476837 476845 478852 480854 484853 490851
      499845 506836 510831 513826 515819 516811
 0.25 503699 502693 500690 494688 486691 480695 473698 466702
      460707 455712 451719 448726 452733 451737 453741 467744
      471736 476731 486721 497711 501705 503699
 0.25 473875 473870 473865 472862 469861 467863 466866 465871
      465876 466881 467883 469883 471880 472878 473875
 0.25 454789 453774 450763 450755 447751 445747 441746 435744
      431754 431759 432764 438772 441776 442781 443789 444793
      447797 450797 453793 454789
 0.25 452852 452850 451848 449848 448850 447850 447853 448854
      450854 451853 452852
 0.25 433792 433787 431785 426784 421787 417791 415797 415804
      416811 418816 421814 425810 427805 430798 433792
 0.25 394235 394233 393232 392231 390230 388229 387229 385228
      383228 381229 381230 382232 383232 384233 386235 387235
      388236 389237 391237 392237 394235
 0.25 261982 261976 261970 257968 254967 249968 244970 243973
      241978 244982 247984 251985 257985 261982 261982
 0.50 479614 479618 477620 476620 476621 475621 474621 472622
      471622 469622 467623 466623 464623 462623 461624 460624
      479614
 0.50 526196 525190 523187 520183 517180 514176 510174 510178
      513182 516185 518189 521193 524196 526196
 0.50 510257 511250 511245 508233 505225 501217 496210 492208
      486207 479207 472210 466214 458216 452218 443219 441221
      444224 453224 462226 466226 469224 475221 481222 486225
      491231 494238 499247 501251 499253 490239 486236 482235
      476230 471229 468230 466232 461232 454233 445235 440239
      442242 445242 453242 462240 466240 470242 477247 482248
      485251 491260 499274 502276 505276 506268 507261 510257
 0.50 439760 440757 439755 438753 437753 435755 435756 435758
      435759 437760 437761 439760 439760
 0.50 256978 255977 253976 252975 251976 250977 249978 250979
      251980 252980 253980 255980 255979 256978
 1.00 507245 505237 502229 498222 494216 487211 483210 480211
      477212 477215 485220 491224 495230 498237 502244 506246
      507245
 1.00 497260 497257 496257 496254 495253 494251 492248 491247
      490245 489244 488244 487246 488247 488249 489251 489252
      490254 491255 491256 493258 494259 494260 496261 497260
 1.00 480241 480239 479237 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234
      472236 473239 473240 475242 476242 476243 477243 478243
      480241
 1.50 477238 477237 476236 475237 475238 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 528270 524240 520233 514230 511226 506220 502214 500211
      496209 486207 479209 474213 471215 468215 466217 471218
      480220 487223 489226 489231 485231 481228 473229 468231
      463231 460232 457232 453233 450234 447238 446244 447248
      447253 448258 447263 445266 447273 450281 443284 436286
      430289 423292 418295 417302 418306 424312 440318 450322
      454322 459323 466325 470326 474327 483330 488330 491329
      495326 498321 502312 503309 505308 528270
 0.01 533208 532199 533194 534185 528179 526168 520161 512155
      506153 510160 512165 511167 509166 505163 500162 494165
      489164 485161 482158 479158 476162 478165 494174 500179
      507187 519200 520204 523208 526209 531208 533208
 0.01 529716 528708 526699 522684 516666 510650 504638 503634
      501632 499630 497631 491633 488635 485633 480632 476632
      474631 449637 442639 435642 424650 420654 417659 412671
      413680 414684 417683 419681 422680 429678 434674 441673
      446676 450681 450686 449690 446697 442702 438704 436707
      435708 435711 438718 432730 430738 428746 426753 423758
      421771 419787 417792 414794 409798 411804 415809 418813
      422812 425806 427800 427796 430794 434792 435789 436780
      437772 441760 447749 457738 465728 469725 475723 487722
      501718 511721 521724 525722 526720 529716
 0.01 520915 520904 518897 513889 510886 508884 496880 481876
      474877 468880 464888 461896 460904 462913 467920 468924
      468930 469935 470938 472942 474943 474947 471952 472959
      474967 478972 479979 480983 484990 492001 498006 505009
      510007 512004 512998 512993 509989 506980 509974 509962
      509958 510955 511953 511949 507944 503939 501936 499934
      501932 510931 515927 518921 520915
 0.01 500191 500188 500191 500191
 0.01 410789 409784 403785 398786 396788 393789 384795 378802
      374805 371810 368813 366818 366820 369820 375819 384813
      390806 397798 401796 407794 410789
 0.01 381081 382074 381070 380067 378065 375062 372059 369054
      365051 363049 361051 321057 326062 323065 327067 327070
      327075 325081 319081 311077 304072 286060 272052 259051
      260056 262062 289087 314114 317117 320113 323110 327108
      333109 336115 338118 341118 343116 348117 352119 354117
      352114 347103 345098 345092 347081 350076 353073 357071
      363070 366071 369073 371077 375085 379084 381081
 0.01 299015 299008 297002 291993 286985 277978 269972 266968
      263962 261957 258954 254949 248948 244950 241946 237943
      235948 233959 232975 233989 234995 236001 242008 246011
      252014 256015 261018 264024 266029 270031 273030 285027
      288025 292021 299015
 0.25 525269 522250 515241 503228 500225 497223 494228 494235
      491238 487238 480243 474246 467252 465256 463262 465274
      463287 457296 456300 457304 462308 467310 475311 484310
      490309 499305 510294 513290 525269
 0.25 518687 516678 514672 512668 510665 507664 501663 494662
      492661 490657 488655 484654 480654 479658 484661 487663
      488665 480669 474675 471681 470685 470691 473699 475702
      478704 481705 485704 493700 507693 517690 518687
 0.25 336089 336086 336084 335084 334083 332084 331086 332087
      332088 333089 335090 336089
 0.25 278009 273999 268984 262974 255964 250962 243958 239955
      237957 236961 235976 236984 238991 242996 247999 258005
      266006 271009 276010 278009
 0.50 523264 521256 516247 512241 504235 501234 498237 496242
      492242 486244 480249 475255 471264 470269 471274 472279
      473285 471303 480306 487305 494303 500299 504294 510288
      518277 523264
 0.50 498683 496679 493679 490680 487682 485684 482687 482690
      484692 486692 489691 492690 494688 496686 498683
 0.50 263992 262984 258978 255972 253969 250967 243964 239959
      238967 238977 240985 244991 249995 257997 260996 262993
      263992
 1.00 518271 519262 517254 514250 510245 504244 500248 489248
      485251 482260 482269 484276 488290 490294 496294 504289
      511280 518271
 1.50 515269 517264 516259 512252 509249 506250 500253 492252
      489253 488257 487267 490276 494281 498284 502285 508280
      512274 515269
 2.00 514264 514260 513257 509253 505258 501259 496257 491255
      490260 490263 493270 497275 503277 507274 511269 514264

$$





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