Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170714
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 AM EDT MON APR 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 17/1200 UTC THRU APR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN ROCKIES---NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING---INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.
 PRECIP LIKELY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM
EARLY DAY 1 FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON---NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST
MT---SUPPORTING MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+ RANGE.
PRECIP LIKELY TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES UNTIL LATER MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHEN THE STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN ND---NORTHEAST SD INTO
WESTERN MN.  THE OVERALL FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN-NORTHERN ROCKIES

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM AN EXPANDING MEAN TROF CENTERED NEAR
44N 148W.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
RANGES---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SIERRA---NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  HEAVIEST
PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SIERRA AND THE FAR
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST
RANGE WHERE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR---WITH 1-2" AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES---WEST TO THE WA/OR COAST RANGES
WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED.  INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN---LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE.

SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

A SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS---EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---TN
VALLEY---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DAY 1.  SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS---AN AXIS OF PW VALUES 1 TO 1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY WITH THE QPF DETAILS---KEEPING OUR CONFIDENCE LOW WITH
THE SHORTER TERMS QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO
BIAS CORRECTED MEAN--ALONG WITH HI RES MEANS WERE USED FOR THE QPF
DETAILS.  A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL POSE ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

SOUTH TX

ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH TX COAST DAY 1.  MODEL ARE INDICATING THAT THE
CURRENT AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TX WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARD 1200 UTC.  HOWEVER---THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RE-FIRING OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT OVER SOUTH TX LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SIMILAR TO CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE WEST TO EAST FRONT FARTHER TO
THE NORTH---THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS DEPICTED DAY 1
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES.

NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALL PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QB
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP AFFECTING NORTHERN MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY 1
PERIOD.  AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10"+ RANGE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.     THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
UNDER THE COLD CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.   BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE EARLY DAY 1 OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SEE THE QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 532205 529183 526175 522169 514153 511147 506142 503137
      502131 502124 504119 509097 511084 514074 515061 515048
      514043 514035 512024 508005 507998 503990 504979 504966
      505950 504935 502921 499912 496906 491899 489896 486896
      477897 470900 464906 459912 455918 447929 435939 410959
      403963 398968 387977 382983 378992 378001 381008 387008
      392002 404994 420999 428995 434996 436998 432019 432030
      434034 436035 440034 442031 447025 450024 450031 450037
      451040 452044 455047 459048 461046 465041 468032 471024
      474020 477017 480016 483019 486023 483029 482034 480037
      480050 478056 476059 473062 472066 467089 466095 464098
      460099 456097 452092 446092 438090 435092 431090 428087
      426085 424087 424092 426097 425102 422103 419112 416112
      413114 409121 407125 410127 414129 414134 382188 363180
      355182 358189 369199 379210 376213 371212 366211 362209
      358203 353198 350194 347192 342192 340195 338198 337203
      337211 334219 330226 329233 329238 333240 337239 352238
      358236 366240 399253 416257 425259 431260 440261 444261
      448262 468268 485274 489281 495285 497285 500288 503291
      505290 515280 519259 519246 516237 515231 513226 509218
      503212 499202 498198 500194 504194 506196 510198 512200
      518205 521209 526210 530208 532205
 0.01 499674 498661 495652 484641 480637 474634 470633 467630
      463632 461635 452647 449657 450667 457683 457686 454688
      452691 450694 451699 448708 440711 443720 443726 444729
      443732 433742 432747 434751 436755 439755 443754 446752
      450748 460734 465728 467728 468731 469737 470741 472746
      476755 478759 481759 485758 487755 492749 494746 495741
      496732 497727 497721 498698 499685 499674
 0.01 468202 469195 469188 471180 470174 467172 465176 463181
      460185 457187 454191 453196 453201 458204 463203 466203
      468202
 0.01 477887 474880 472875 467861 463854 460849 456844 452838
      446826 445823 444817 442812 440798 439792 437789 433787
      429781 425777 421775 421780 420785 420792 420800 418804
      419808 419813 420818 421821 422828 426836 429840 437849
      441854 446858 448861 448865 449875 450884 451894 453899
      455901 459901 470896 474892 477887
 0.01 457128 458121 454120 451122 448124 442124 439125 437128
      437131 440135 445137 448139 451139 455135 456130 457128
 0.01 447179 446175 444172 439168 436165 432165 429168 429171
      421183 413193 413201 411208 415210 416213 418215 418220
      418224 420222 423215 421208 419202 424199 425198 428201
      432206 435205 437201 439187 443181 447179
 0.01 451080 451078 450075 448073 446072 445070 443069 443070
      443072 444075 446077 448078 449080 451080 451080
 0.01 230001 231008 234012 238016 242018 251023 255025 260029
      270036 273036 275038 281038 286027 289024 287018 286016
      287012 289006 290000 293995 299989 301987 299986 299984
      303983 308980 316980 322980 328979 334979 335984 340996
      347006 351010 355011 360009 362005 365001 367996 368986
      368977 368971 369963 370957 370947 372941 375938 382927
      382920 381915 378902 376897 376891 379857 379852 380850
      382844 384838 384831 387817 390805 394793 397782 400770
      401762 400752 400725 398723 396726 393731 389741 385752
      384757 381762 378744 374728 372719 370714 368708 365705
      357705 353706 349711 346715 342724 338735 329759 327764
      327768 325771 327786 329803 330814 331832 331839 330846
      330852 332856 330863 326867 323872 322881 322885 320887
      315889 291895 273904 268909 270913 275915 282915 287918
      291922 292928 293935 293939 291942 288947 284956 280960
      276962 271965 265966 256964 249965 244965 242966 237968
      233971 235976 238980 236985 233992 230997
 0.01 284806 282803 279801 272798 264797 260796 256797 245804
      239808 237818 235824 240830 244835 251840 258842 268842
      274838 275834 274830 270823 268820 269816 268805 274807
      281809 284806
 0.25 515256 513242 512236 509231 503220 500214 497210 491208
      486206 481206 476207 472210 466212 461211 456212 447215
      436215 430215 426219 425223 426228 424231 419231 413229
      415218 413215 409215 406214 404211 401206 398203 388196
      379190 368185 365188 367192 375200 382207 392214 397217
      402219 404222 404226 400228 394228 388226 384228 385235
      389240 393243 404249 415251 427251 437250 457248 465249
      471253 479259 487267 495275 500279 505281 506278 507273
      507268 509265 513262 515256
 0.25 523195 523192 523191 522189 520188 519187 517186 516187
      517189 517190 518193 518194 519196 521196 523195 523195
 0.25 496247 496246 495244 495243 494243 495245 495246 496247
      496247
 0.25 499178 500171 498168 491163 489161 487157 485154 481154
      474154 469154 468158 469162 474168 479172 487176 493179
      497180 499178
 0.25 490232 490231 489229 489228 487226 487225 486225 485226
      485227 485230 486232 488232 489234 490232
 0.25 482667 481662 480659 478658 475659 473660 472664 472668
      473672 474675 476677 478676 480673 481670 482667
 0.25 491967 492958 492949 491939 489934 486928 483924 478922
      474924 471927 468932 462942 459948 455950 450949 447952
      440960 436965 434971 436973 439972 444970 449966 453964
      458964 457972 457979 455986 453992 451001 454008 458012
      462015 467012 475006 485002 489998 490990 490976 491967
 0.25 449112 448107 446102 443100 437100 436100 433095 430092
      429096 431101 428105 426108 424112 421116 419121 422131
      426129 429125 434116 436114 441115 445116 448114 449112
 0.25 439153 441151 441149 440146 439144 438146 437148 437151
      438152 439153 439153
 0.25 420157 420154 420149 419145 418144 416144 413146 412148
      410152 411156 411159 411164 411168 413170 415168 416165
      417163 419159 420157
 0.25 363218 362215 360213 358212 357209 355207 353204 350203
      348204 348207 349210 351212 353213 356215 358216 361218
      363218
 0.25 372761 371754 368749 366741 365734 364727 361725 357726
      355731 353737 351750 350761 349777 349791 347805 345817
      345827 344832 340843 340851 341859 341867 339871 326889
      320898 317908 316917 316925 317941 318947 322951 327952
      330956 336966 343973 348976 350970 350956 354943 358932
      361927 365924 369920 372917 374910 373902 370897 367892
      366885 366877 367863 367856 368847 369842 369837 371836
      372828 371821 366814 367806 368800 371787 372779 372774
      372761
 0.25 290972 290968 287967 278968 272970 265974 259977 255978
      252980 242988 240991 239995 241999 244001 248006 251008
      252012 257015 265018 269017 270013 269007 273001 280997
      286995 288992 289987 286980 284978 286976 290972
 0.25 264815 264813 264811 263811 262809 260809 259809 258809
      256809 256812 257812 258813 258814 260815 261815 262815
      264815 264815
 0.25 262825 261820 257819 253818 249815 246814 242817 241819
      242823 245826 249827 253828 258828 261826 262825
 0.50 511257 512250 511244 507235 503225 498217 493211 488211
      484212 483216 486219 491227 494236 500245 504252 507256
      509258 511257
 0.50 503276 503268 502264 498257 490241 485239 483240 480233
      475231 472233 467238 460233 452233 445230 448229 451226
      457222 454218 446219 438219 430221 428223 430226 432231
      432234 428235 425235 416233 411232 410228 413220 411218
      408219 407224 407228 407232 405233 403234 400235 398238
      399242 404244 413246 422248 430247 436245 451243 466240
      472246 480250 490264 496272 500275 503276
 0.50 488952 487943 484935 479932 474933 470938 466944 465953
      465964 464975 462984 460991 459995 459001 461008 464009
      466006 469001 473996 479993 483987 485979 486969 488952
 0.50 445111 445108 444107 443106 442105 441105 440105 439108
      440110 441110 442111 443112 445111
 0.50 400216 400211 399208 396205 391201 386197 381193 376190
      369190 372195 377200 381204 385207 391211 396215 400216
 0.50 366769 366762 364758 360756 358756 357759 354766 353771
      354777 355781 354786 354797 353807 355808 358803 361796
      364787 365775 366769
 0.50 369914 370904 367900 360898 359894 359890 360874 361865
      359859 357843 355833 353835 348847 347864 345871 342876
      336887 330898 329911 328919 326925 325934 323939 323943
      325945 329948 332954 336958 339964 343968 346967 347963
      347954 348945 350938 355927 363920 368917 369914
 0.50 285989 279983 277980 273980 264979 263983 259986 255986
      253990 251995 252998 256004 260003 262000 263995 266991
      268987 271986 273990 277992 282992 285989
 1.00 508248 507245 507244 505244 505245 505247 506249 508248
 1.00 478238 478235 477235 476234 474234 474235 474237 475239
      477240 478238
 1.00 478977 477974 476973 474974 474975 474977 474979 474982
      475982 476982 477979 478977
 1.00 428243 428241 426240 425239 424239 423238 421238 419237
      418237 417237 416239 417241 417242 418243 420244 422244
      423245 425245 426244 427244 428243
 1.00 397210 394207 391204 389201 385198 381195 377193 376194
      378199 382202 385204 388206 393209 397210 397210
 1.00 352912 352907 349904 347902 347898 347896 345899 341906
      337913 334919 335930 335935 337934 340931 343930 346927
      347923 350916 352912
 1.00 349890 350888 350886 349884 349883 348884 347884 346886
      345888 344890 344891 342893 344894 345894 347894 348892
      349891 349890

$$





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