Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 011850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY..OH
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THESE REGIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION..WITH A LONG
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY AND WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BACK IN THE LOWER MS/MID MS VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  LARGE SCALE LIFT VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BY H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS..WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ASCENT COMING ON TUESDAY THRU THE OH VALLEY
UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS.  SUSTAINED 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING IN PERSISTENLY HIGH
MOISTURE..WITH PWS FORECAST TO POOL TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  THE COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.  THE DEEP LAYERED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME CELL
TRAINING..ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING..AND PARTICULARLY SO
FROM PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OK/SOUTHEASTERN KS THRU THE MID MS AND
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEYS..WHERE AT LEAST SOME 1.5-2.5 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINS ARE EXPECTED..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 3
INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS..AND
THAT WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH THE HIRES ARW..NMMB AND WRFNSSL
QPFS..AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THESE HIRES SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
FORECAST..AT LEAST WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS WERE EXPECTED.


...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE TAIL END OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROF THAT`S PUSHED INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRETTY MUCH WEAKEN IN
PLACE AND HAVE AN AXIS OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE/PWS SOUTH AND EAST OF
IT..WHICH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST A BIT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DURING TIME OF BETTER HEATING LATER TUESDAY MORNING
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO GA.  KEPT
AREA AVERAGE AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE..BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY..ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW AND SEE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITHIN THE EMBEDDED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUING
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...WITH A MIXTURE OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PREFERRED TO GENERATE THE QPF.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 532203 532195 531185 532177 533173 535160 536148 536141
      535135 534125 530117 526113 521112 518113 513118 510125
      506134 503144 498166 496176 492187 488195 484199 478204
      472208 467212 464219 468225 468230 465233 463237 462243
      464246 466250 495266 499273 504279 510276 515269 517262
      521250 523237 525225 526217 528211 532203
 0.01 533032 534010 533992 533970 533962 532952 531942 529936
      526931 520931 514931 508928 504924 499921 494919 489918
      477915 477930 477949 482962 486975 491988 493995 495003
      496008 500014 504019 507024 516030 525036 528037 531035
      533032
 0.01 530806 529796 528793 527789 525786 520779 515775 509770
      502768 497767 494767 494765 498758 502751 504746 506741
      505735 504728 501721 496714 490711 485711 485706 489698
      492690 493685 491679 486676 478678 476681 471683 465689
      450703 443708 436714 431720 426726 422732 418739 408752
      398765 394771 388776 375789 369790 367786 365783 363777
      361772 362767 368760 378749 382741 385735 388728 392719
      395713 395703 390699 385700 383703 373717 368724 363726
      359730 353736 348742 338755 335763 331769 317776 311780
      302785 296788 292790 288791 285793 280793 269794 259792
      253793 250795 247801 244804 243809 243817 245819 247817
      250813 252815 252818 254824 256826 269835 282840 296845
      299849 301853 304865 304876 304882 302888 293903 289919
      287928 283935 277939 274941 270941 253945 245947 241951
      237955 237960 237972 241979 247985 251988 252992 253998
      257999 259001 263999 270997 282991 295982 301979 307974
      319965 327960 331959 336958 341957 345957 349960 350964
      351975 354984 357992 362998 364000 366004 370012 374020
      381024 385025 386023 386016 385012 381995 379985 380972
      380966 382960 387950 393934 399917 413882 419868 424861
      429857 445847 455845 464848 470851 477850 487849 490846
      494845 520826 527817 530806
 0.01 462947 462937 460934 456931 449930 443933 438937 435936
      436930 440923 443913 445906 445900 446895 448889 448885
      444877 442875 439875 434882 432885 432890 430894 430900
      431911 428921 424929 423933 422938 423942 424947 428947
      427951 423968 416986 415996 416005 418013 420018 422022
      426027 433031 437031 439028 443020 444016 445010 445998
      445993 443988 442983 442977 443967 444960 447957 456952
      462947
 0.25 525201 525193 524187 521178 518167 516162 513160 510162
      508166 506172 505179 507192 506196 504200 498208 492213
      486219 483219 486222 496238 505254 509254 512249 512241
      514234 516222 517209 521204 525201
 0.25 492739 490731 489727 487727 484730 479736 477741 474747
      471753 470756 473758 480756 486753 489749 492741 492739
 0.25 449753 449743 446738 441735 435739 427747 419757 413767
      406779 399791 393801 386811 382815 379822 378829 381833
      380841 377847 368872 363885 359899 357913 356921 357930
      354944 353951 354958 357972 359978 364985 370995 375997
      376988 375972 376965 379957 384944 389931 393919 397903
      401889 405877 415851 421838 427826 432816 435810 437801
      439785 442771 446761 449753
 0.25 373738 373736 372734 370735 369736 368736 367738 366739
      366740 364742 363744 363747 363749 365749 365748 367747
      368746 368745 370743 371740 373738 373738
 0.25 331826 329822 325820 318822 309822 298822 291826 293830
      296832 302838 307844 312845 318844 322842 324839 329831
      331826
 0.25 313949 313941 311935 306931 301934 298928 295926 292931
      290937 285949 279959 273968 273971 276970 281968 287970
      294968 298966 303963 310955 313949
 0.50 516185 516184 515182 514180 513180 513181 514184 516185
      516185
 0.50 505242 505239 505237 505234 505233 504231 504228 502226
      502225 501224 499222 498223 497224 496226 497229 498232
      498233 499234 499236 500238 501239 502241 504242 505242
 0.50 437758 436751 432749 428752 424758 412777 406786 403791
      401798 401804 405807 403813 401818 396828 391840 385851
      380860 374869 368880 363893 360905 360933 359941 357947
      356954 357963 360974 362979 367985 370989 373987 373982
      373974 374967 383943 387930 390918 397891 400879 405866
      414843 423820 427809 428803 427798 425796 425790 425786
      426783 432773 436764 437758
 1.00 409833 409828 407826 403831 397844 389857 382870 380876
      379879 382881 383887 381896 379903 375910 371911 369914
      367920 363938 360954 360963 362972 364975 367976 370972
      372964 375956 380942 389911 392892 396876 401861 403854
      404843 409833
 1.50 383924 386916 388909 387904 385903 383907 381913 379916
      377917 375917 372918 367933 365945 365953 364958 364966
      366967 371958 375947 377941 377934 383924
 2.00 373947 374940 375933 375927 373926 372928 369939 368942
      368945 369951 372950 373947

$$





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