Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271829
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/0000 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

A COUPLE OF FAIRLY CLOSE STREAMS OF H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING AND ORGANIZING CONVECTION WITH TIME FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS
VALLEY.  A SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY UP THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF THIS S/WV ENERGY..BRINGING A BAND OF HIGHER PWS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GENERAL MASS FIELD EVOLUTION
AND THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED MCS ARE PRETTY MUCH AGREED UPON BY
ALL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS..BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CAST THERE IS
SOME CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS..PARTICULARLY LATITUDE-WISE.  A MAJORITY OF THE 12Z
HIRES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS..WITH MUCH OF THE 12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE EVEN A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE HIRES SOLUTIONS.
STAYED CLOSER TO SOME OF THE MORE SOUTHERN HIRES SOLUTIONS AS PER
THE NSSL WRF AND GEM REGIONAL..BUT IN GENERAL THE WPC FORECAST IS
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINS.  THIS LATEST FORECAST SEEMS TO ALIGN WELL ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE 50+ KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET.  EXPECT AT LEAST AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES FROM PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NE INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MN..WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.


...IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COAST DOWN INTO SOUTHEASTERN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES DURING THE PERIOD..THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST IN THE
MEAN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WEAK S/WV ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THIS H5 TROF WILL KEEP RAINFALL RAINFALL CHANCES
HIGH ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND INTO FL.  THE TRACK OF THE HEIGHT FALLS IS LIKELY TO
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST
COAST..WITH COASTAL AREAS FROM SC INTO GA AND DOWN INTO THE FL
PENINSULA LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SOME PROGRESSION OF THE H5 TROF THRU THE EASTERN PACIFIC..WITH
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND SOME MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST..SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINS OVER WESTERN WA DOWN INTO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN OR.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 508285 509280 508276 506268 503263 501261 500256 499252
      500247 501242 504241 506239 507234 505228 499214 496209
      492205 488203 481203 471208 463218 459223 456228 452232
      445233 442237 437240 427245 421247 420250 420253 424259
      431261 438263 443263 459267 469267 482274 491281 494283
      497286 502288 508285
 0.01 512996 512991 511989 508985 506985 504983 499982 489980
      486984 484989 483005 486017 489022 492025 499032 502029
      504022 508009 510004 512996 512996
 0.01 492916 492911 489911 484914 481919 480922 480929 479934
      479944 477949 477954 478957 481955 484947 484937 485931
      487927 490920 492916
 0.01 453081 452078 451075 450072 448069 447066 445064 442063
      439064 438067 439069 439072 441075 443077 446079 448081
      451082 453081
 0.01 455932 455891 455880 453871 450865 447862 438862 435863
      433866 428871 424877 416886 410896 396924 383945 379951
      376957 368968 364973 361978 356991 353000 352007 352012
      354015 356016 360014 363013 364016 364026 363034 357035
      354036 351039 347043 341046 341050 343054 350064 355069
      360070 364071 369072 373075 379078 385076 389075 391077
      395080 405074 411070 414065 414057 412053 409051 399044
      395039 393036 393032 393020 394015 396012 406003 409001
      413001 419003 430008 436009 442006 445000 448991 451984
      451975 451963 451954 451949 453942 455932
 0.01 440115 441108 442101 441095 438092 435089 432086 428084
      426086 426094 427097 430100 432104 433111 434115 440116
      440115
 0.01 407107 408100 406098 402104 398108 394110 387113 381112
      378114 376117 375123 373127 377128 382124 386120 390119
      396115 403111 407107
 0.01 365133 366128 365126 363119 364112 360114 358115 355115
      350110 346107 344106 343103 342074 342072 339071 333068
      329066 324065 314071 307078 304082 300086 298099 298112
      300114 303116 307117 312117 316116 322111 329110 335113
      338117 343119 344127 347132 350135 354133 357132 361132
      365133
 0.01 363742 362734 360730 357727 352726 340737 333743 327751
      322758 317763 312771 304778 295781 285782 273784 267785
      263788 260790 260794 262797 261799 254800 250802 246804
      245809 246814 249816 255821 256826 257829 264835 271838
      279842 286846 292846 298845 304842 310848 317851 321849
      323846 326836 327827 329815 333805 338798 341790 344780
      349771 353764 357755 363742
 0.01 356828 356825 354824 351824 349824 347827 346831 349833
      348835 348840 350840 352837 353835 355832 355830 356828
 0.25 484245 485241 482238 478231 471232 465235 459237 453240
      448244 447246 447249 451250 457249 463248 470248 479249
      484245 484245
 0.25 448901 446892 443886 440885 436886 431890 423902 415912
      400931 391943 384954 381960 378967 377971 380974 385970
      389970 396966 401965 405968 420990 427993 432997 435998
      439998 442993 445954 444945 445934 447916 448901
 0.25 379992 376996 374998 373996 374993 377990 379992
 0.25 357743 355739 351742 343747 331763 325772 321781 310797
      307798 304797 300795 296794 290795 285797 283799 283802
      285804 289806 296806 303806 307806 312807 317809 321807
      327800 333791 338783 347764 356746 357743
 0.25 313822 313820 312818 311818 310817 309818 308818 308820
      307822 307823 307825 307826 307827 309828 311826 312824
      312822 313822
 0.25 285829 284828 280829 278827 274827 271826 267829 269831
      272832 275833 278834 280834 282833 284830 285829
 0.25 282811 283806 281804 276802 270802 263802 258804 254809
      257813 260815 266817 270818 273817 279814 282811
 0.50 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474236 474237 475239
      477240 478238
 0.50 443918 444910 443902 441899 438897 433898 429902 424907
      412922 405930 400938 396947 396950 398951 402953 412956
      414959 415966 417979 419984 422986 428987 431991 434993
      438992 441987 439981 437976 437972 438969 441966 442959
      442947 441939 442933 443919 443918
 0.50 269808 267806 265806 264806 263808 262809 264809 265809
      267809 269808
 1.00 440914 437909 433909 428911 425914 419921 412929 407939
      407945 410948 416954 420959 420967 421974 425974 427969
      429962 433958 437955 437947 437938 438930 439916 440914
 1.50 435928 435922 435918 432915 428916 423921 419926 414933
      411940 413943 417945 421950 426956 429957 431956 434952
      435947 435935 435928
 2.00 432949 433942 433935 432928 431923 430920 428920 425924
      423927 421931 419934 420938 423942 424947 426952 428954
      431952 432949

$$




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