Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

457
FXUS04 KWBC 220644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/1200 UTC THRU MAY 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID TO UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS
VALLEY--SOUTHEAST

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD FROM SOUTH TX EASTWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.   WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND STRONG
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING EASTWARD IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT FROM SOUTH TX---ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST---THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DAY 1.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAX QPF AXES
AMONG THE MODELS.  THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD AXES OF THE ARW---NMMB
AND THEIR PARALLEL VERSIONS---ALONG WITH THE NAM CONEST AND CMC
GEM WERE PREFERRED OVER THE FARTHER NORTHWARD GFS AND EC
SOLUTIONS.  THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SOUTHWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THEIR MAX QPF AXIS---TOWARD THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD HI RES RUNS. THE ECMWF---HOWEVER---HAS SHOWN THE
OPPOSITE.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE SHORTER TERM
DETAILS---EXPECT AN INITIAL AREA OF HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD
MONDAY MORNING FROM COASTAL TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST---PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY---ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM COASTAL TX
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  TRAINING OF CELLS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT POSSIBLE AS MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD 1-3" AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED  DAY 1 ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMA OF 5"+ WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS WITH
BOTH ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED PRECIP.

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
OVERALL LOWER AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG
THE GULF COAST.  MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL
ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC/NYC METRO AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH .50-1"+
PRECIP POTENTIAL.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

PLAINS---LOWER MO---MID MS VALLEY

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION
WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 ACROSS ONTARIO AND QB---WHILE
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND HELP RE-AMPLIFY THE MEAN TROF ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF DETAILS IN THIS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD PUSHING HEIGHT FALLS.  WITH LATEST MODELS SHOWING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF SPREAD WITH THE QPF DETAILS---CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE HI RES ARW AND ITS PARALLEL VERSION WERE FOLLOWED THE MOST FOR
THE QPF DETAILS GIVEN OUR OVERALL HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
MODEL.  GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS
DEPICTED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEY---WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES
MAXIMIZE.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 532747 531733 529724 528712 525701 525695 523689 520679
      517665 512659 502645 490633 480636 477635 473637 464639
      461638 458639 454638 450639 443642 430650 406672 394685
      383696 360720 351731 347738 345744 337758 333765 329772
      323787 320796 314802 307805 302807 297807 280805 276804
      272805 269802 269798 266796 263796 254797 250799 248804
      251810 255812 256814 261819 268825 276827 285828 288830
      291835 291841 289845 286853 284858 284869 284880 283888
      278902 273919 270927 268937 261949 256957 253963 248980
      260990 265992 267994 267998 270005 274009 291015 298018
      301022 301026 306032 308035 310039 315046 321053 324055
      327054 338055 340057 344056 348055 352056 355058 359059
      362061 364060 371059 378062 383065 388073 391076 394078
      398079 402079 407077 411078 415077 418079 424082 428083
      431087 437093 438099 441103 448108 457111 468120 475122
      478121 480118 479113 477109 473103 470099 467095 464086
      461078 458071 458068 459065 462063 470061 475061 477060
      485055 487050 486047 482039 466012 462003 459994 458990
      458987 460986 467984 474981 481978 498979 505980 510981
      512976 519957 531926 536917 537913 537905 537899 536895
      536880 535850 536839 535826 535814 535798 532766 531754
      532747
 0.01 481884 482877 481871 479862 464868 461869 457865 455862
      455853 454847 457841 460832 463823 461819 461812 459808
      458800 456795 457790 460780 463772 463769 462767 458763
      455760 451759 444762 436766 429772 423777 416783 407787
      391794 386793 381794 377794 376801 375810 373822 368829
      362835 351850 344865 341874 339879 339884 340893 338905
      338911 338918 340930 345949 346955 347959 352960 357958
      361958 365956 368955 369953 371949 376942 375940 372940
      366939 364931 365926 367923 371914 376907 400880 410870
      418865 424859 429855 435864 438871 437883 436890 434893
      429898 433905 436907 441906 450905 452906 452909 454914
      453919 451924 446933 446941 446948 448951 459952 460950
      461944 463933 467922 469915 471912 473907 475902 480894
      481884
 0.01 424006 424001 424994 422989 422982 420980 417980 414982
      405985 401987 399988 398991 393997 391002 390005 392008
      395007 399009 406014 413019 418020 421015 424006
 0.01 399039 396032 393028 391022 388018 389016 390011 388009
      387011 385013 381017 377022 375023 377028 378033 382035
      385036 387037 391038 396040 399039
 0.25 524762 524753 523744 520724 518717 516710 514701 510695
      507691 504688 499687 494689 491695 487701 484705 481711
      478723 473727 471733 472743 476746 481750 483756 488768
      492774 495779 499783 501787 503794 504802 506816 510823
      510830 510838 509845 505860 503874 502884 501890 502898
      503907 505910 505915 502924 497934 494939 491942 487947
      484953 484960 489959 493955 496955 502947 507942 509937
      512919 512907 516893 519886 523882 527870 528861 527852
      526831 523789 523773 524762
 0.25 455713 453707 449706 444705 441704 443693 442685 444678
      445671 442666 438664 434663 422669 413675 385703 378712
      373721 371725 373728 374733 371740 367748 361756 351761
      347764 344768 339777 335787 330796 327801 324805 321809
      318811 313813 307813 297811 291810 286810 280811 277815
      278819 283821 294823 305825 308828 308833 304841 299851
      296861 289882 282904 276924 272936 270947 269960 266970
      266977 267983 270987 275990 279992 284993 287993 291990
      292987 291980 297971 304964 310958 314954 317949 322939
      325929 328918 329912 329904 329899 331893 336869 339858
      343846 351828 355817 358806 362796 366787 369782 373778
      382772 390767 398762 409757 417751 426746 431743 438742
      443740 447736 451732 453727 455713
 0.25 435935 436928 435925 433924 429928 426931 424935 424940
      424945 426952 428954 431952 433947 434942 435937 435935
 0.25 415905 417901 415896 410895 405897 400901 394911 390924
      390933 392936 392940 392949 394956 394965 398966 402961
      404954 405936 405923 412914 415905
 0.25 371044 371043 369042 367041 366041 365041 365042 365043
      367044 369045 371044 371044
 0.25 361034 362028 361022 357016 354014 351010 348002 346999
      343997 340998 337000 331004 326003 324000 320993 315988
      311986 306987 303990 304995 307003 311009 321022 325028
      332034 346040 355040 359038 360035 361034
 0.50 510760 511757 510755 510754 508753 508752 506751 504751
      504754 505754 506756 507757 507758 509760 510760 510760
 0.50 432680 431675 428674 421676 415679 410683 402693 394703
      386712 385716 386719 389725 386729 381734 378739 375746
      374751 374756 367767 365773 368774 371773 381765 392758
      403753 407747 409741 413736 418732 423729 422722 418716
      413713 427690 432680
 0.50 356779 355773 349775 345779 343782 336791 331800 320816
      316820 314824 311835 302853 299863 294874 288894 281916
      275936 272964 271975 272980 278982 283980 286976 294969
      307956 311952 313948 317937 324916 324910 323905 327894
      329884 332871 337847 345828 349818 352806 354792 356779
 0.50 350026 349020 347017 343013 340011 336012 332016 330019
      330023 332028 337029 343029 346028 350026
 1.00 408733 409729 407727 403726 400728 395731 392733 389736
      386740 388746 388749 390748 393747 398744 401741 404738
      407736 408733
 1.00 344807 344802 341800 334805 328811 323818 319824 315832
      309848 301863 295880 284915 281933 282938 281943 279952
      277961 276967 277972 281974 285972 292966 296960 301954
      306947 310939 312932 315922 318912 319904 320897 324887
      327868 329859 332850 337832 338824 339818 344807
 1.50 330844 330837 328832 326830 321834 317839 311851 308857
      304863 299874 294888 290901 286914 285923 284929 287928
      288930 288937 286944 284951 282959 281963 285965 288965
      290963 293956 296951 301945 307935 312922 318892 326863
      329852 330844
 2.00 327850 327846 323847 318850 315854 309860 304867 296887
      293895 290906 287915 288921 291918 292938 294942 297943
      303936 307928 310918 311911 311908 310904 314894 318886
      321875 326855 327850
 3.00 314883 314875 313873 310871 308870 307873 304878 302883
      299889 297895 295901 298901 300899 304896 308892 312888
      314883
 3.00 299920 299918 299920 299921 299920
 4.00 309882 309880 309879 309880 309882 309882

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.