Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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081
FXUS04 KWBC 261856
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 27/0000 UTC THRU SEP 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NEW ENGLAND---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

MODEL ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
FRONT---INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS---AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND---THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN AN AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF FRONTAL
AND PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP---WITH AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

COASTAL CAROLINAS

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST AND NC COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER---THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY AFFECT
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC AND NC WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS.

UPPER LAKES

LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DAY 1.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION FROM
NORTHEAST MN---ACROSS NORTHERN WI--THE U.P. OF MI AND THE NORTHERN
L.P. OF MI.   CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL ENHANCE PRECIP TOTALS OVER THE U.P. AND NORTHWEST
L.P.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .25-.50" RANGE DEPICTED
WITH HEAVIER TOTALS IN AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SOUTH TX

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH TX WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  WHILE PW
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT OVER SOUTH TX THIS PERIOD---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH TX AND A SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TO ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH TX COAST AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST MEXICO.  WITH THE
EXPECTED DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION---THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTH TX ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE.  THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK
AREA WAS TAKEN OUT---WITH A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA MAINTAINED.

SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS RETROGRADED ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BAJA AND TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
 WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF
THIS CIRCULATION---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FROM SW TX---SOUTHERN NM INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ AND
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 558853 557846 556840 552831 543810 536788 531779 526770
      516753 506737 497722 494718 494713 492697 487686 486682
      484674 480664 477658 476651 472641 469636 466632 460629
      451628 441631 433636 415648 405662 395679 385694 380700
      370706 338727 332732 325738 322746 321748 318750 312751
      303754 297761 293770 291778 288787 289792 291797 296805
      297807 295808 291806 284802 280799 277795 275792 272790
      263786 254787 250788 246790 239796 237806 236811 236816
      240825 244829 247830 254834 262836 265837 271837 275837
      277838 279842 281846 285850 286865 284869 285874 285887
      285893 284898 284910 282921 279929 268931 255943 242954
      238957 234961 230973 230985 231987 231989 231991 231993
      231995 230997 230999 230001 230003 230005 230007 229009
      226044 228053 229056 233059 238064 245068 252073 256074
      260076 273085 283097 288102 292110 294117 295123 293127
      288125 285125 280125 279130 280133 282136 287142 298154
      306159 312164 318169 328170 336170 339168 339166 335164
      332160 331156 333152 341137 355129 357127 358122 354115
      349108 346099 344091 340082 336075 333066 330060 325053
      321047 320036 313020 308014 302010 296005 291999 289997
      286992 287979 290971 294963 302949 305942 307933 309923
      308910 310908 310905 311903 322890 326884 329883 332879
      337872 343867 349862 353859 355855 358848 363842 383816
      387810 392803 397797 405793 431784
 0.01 431784 439781 442781 448781 453780 458780 458783 455786
      450787 444793 442796 441801 436808 434818 438825 442825
      444827 445832 443837 442840 440842 436849 429853 426857
      424862 424867 426871 430878 431885 431892 430897 430904
      434912 440919 446924 455928 459935 464943 467947 470949
      477953 484957 494958 502955 505954 509955 516953 525949
      531946 539942 542940 545939 553933 555931 555923 556917
      556908 556892 557886 557878 557863 558853
 0.01 540197 542182 539172 540170 539164 537159 533157 527155
      519155 512150 505143 502141 498141 496145 498150 500155
      503158 504164 501168 500172 501177 502183 504187 507191
      509196 507201 506208 503211 498210 489209 485208 481209
      477212 474213 470213 470218 473219 478218 485220 489224
      490227 495236 499245 496249 492246 489244 486248 486257
      487262 489268 494274 496279 499282 504284 507283 513279
      519272 523262 535212 540197
 0.01 515840 515833 512829 509820 505812 501803 496797 491792
      479783 463780 459782 460785 463784 469786 475793 477797
      477802 478809 479816 483823 491838 493843 496846 500852
      501855 503856 508856 510853 512852 513848 515840
 0.01 480244 480238 478234 473234 469234 465234 460234 457235
      454238 456242 461244 464243 469244 473244 478244 480244
 0.01 304865 304863 304861 303859 303857 302855 302853 301851
      301848 301846 301844 299842 298844 298847 298849 298851
      299853 298855 299857 300859 300861 301863 301865 303866
      304865
 0.25 533190 534181 531175 527172 522172 518177 515182 514187
      516190 519195 524200 525202 528203 532197 533190
 0.25 545893 546885 545877 542866 539861 536860 528864 522868
      515875 510880 501884 493887 489888 486884 481859 479848
      477843 473841 468834 466830 462827 452845 447850 444853
      439855 437858 436862 438866 443868 450870 452874 453881
      453893 454906 457915 460918 464917 468916 472918 476927
      481934 487940 497941 504941 512939 520936 527931 533924
      537917 541906 545893
 0.25 516264 516258 514253 513248 511244 509240 504239 504242
      504248 506253 508258 510262 514265 516264
 0.25 535824 534816 533810 528799 519779 509762 497747 491740
      484734 481733 479738 481743 484747 491753 496761 505779
      516798 526815 531823 533825 535824
 0.25 461658 461653 458649 453644 449643 446643 438646 423656
      417662 411668 407674 403680 399688 395696 387711 382718
      379721 376722 357726 350729 341733 335739 331745 328753
      323760 317764 311765 309768 308774 309780 308784 308793
      309797 312801 315803 319802 325799 331794 336788 346776
      355763 361757 363757 364760 364767 359782 350798 342809
      340812 339818 337828 336847 337850 340848 345848 350847
      359834 368820 376808 386795 396784 404779 413777 420776
      427773 435769 441763 441757 440753 435746 429741 428738
      429733 426725 428721 428715 426709 428704 432696 436689
      440680 444673 449667 457663 461658
 0.25 298941 297938 293937 287941 277947 272951 266954 261956
      254958 247960 241964 238968 235975 234982 235991 237997
      240002 245006 250010 259019 263022 267027 270032 273034
      277035 283033 286026 287022 285014 278001 276996 271993
      268991 268988 270982 279974 284970 288964 291960 294953
      298941
 0.25 283053 277044 273040 269038 259031 253030 247028 242026
      237026 235027 233031 233037 234043 237047 245054 255061
      260063 266065 273066 278063 283053
 0.25 281809 272804 263801 256802 253799 250798 248800 246805
      244815 246819 250820 253821 256820 255815 252811 254807
      257807 258809 260815 261817 264819 267818 272816 277814
      280811 281809
 0.50 539890 537883 532878 526877 521879 510887 505891 500893
      497896 496899 491904 486909 485911 485917 490921 495924
      501926 509925 515923 520921 529911 534906 537899 539890
 0.50 475890 475880 473874 469874 466875 463881 461888 460896
      460901 462905 465910 469910 472905 474902 474897 475890
 0.50 456852 455850 453852 453853 455853 456852
 0.50 436659 435656 432655 427658 420665 408681 403688 398698
      397707 393718 375753 371761 367771 365782 362792 356799
      351807 347816 346821 346829 345834 347838 350840 353836
      363820 368811 372801 377796 382793 385789 390781 389774
      398756 403748 405744 406738 415722 417717 418711 422701
      429682 429674 432668 436659
 0.50 431761 430761 429760 428760 427759 425759 423760 422760
      420761 418763 418764 419766 420768 421769 422769 424769
      426768 427767 429765 430764 431763 431761
 0.50 368737 367732 362731 352734 344737 338742 333749 329757
      322770 316776 313783 312787 313793 315796 319797 327792
      332787 337781 343776 348770 352764 362751 366743 368737
 0.50 291954 291947 287950 279954 269958 259961 248963 242970
      239974 238980 237986 238993 240997 244001 251007 258012
      267017 273019 276018 278015 277009 275003 273999 269996
      262990 259986 259982 263979 268977 272975 277972 284966
      288960 291954
 0.50 267052 264047 260044 256041 252036 248033 244032 240033
      237037 240043 244046 249049 253053 257055 261057 265056
      267052
 1.00 525894 524892 523891 521892 520892 519893 518894 516895
      515896 513897 512898 513899 515899 516899 518898 519898
      521897 522897 523897 524895 525894
 1.00 469895 469893 469890 468888 467890 466890 466893 465895
      465896 465898 465899 467899 468898 468896 469895
 1.00 361742 361738 358738 351740 346742 341746 338750 335755
      330766 322775 321780 321783 324784 329783 334778 343772
      350762 356753 359748 361742
 1.00 359814 359813 357814 355817 355819 354821 354824 354826
      355824 356822 356821 357819 358819 358817 359815 359814
 1.00 279966 277962 274962 266963 261964 254965 249968 247974
      248976 252976 257975 264974 270973 275970 279966
 1.00 270009 268003 264998 260994 257992 251989 246990 243992
      243996 247999 252002 256005 262008 267010 270009
 1.50 357745 357741 355741 350743 344746 340751 337756 335760
      334765 335769 337771 342770 345765 349760 352755 355750
      357745
 1.50 269970 269968 268968 266967 265967 263968 262968 263969
      263970 265970 266970 268970 269970
 1.50 259000 258000 257998 257997 255997 254996 253995 251994
      251996 251998 253999 255999 257999 257000 258000 259000
 2.00 351751 350748 347748 345748 343749 342751 340754 339758
      338760 338764 340768 343766 345763 346761 348758 349756
      350753 351751

$$





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