Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201810
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 21/0000 UTC THRU AUG 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT DAY WILL RESEMBLE A SEMI RING OF
FIRE, AS A VERY STURDY BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE PLAYBOOK LOOKS LIKE THIS FROM REGION
TO REGION BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HI-RES SUITE OF
THE 12Z NAM CONEST, ARW, ARW2 AND NMMB.

DEEP MOIST EASTERLY COMPONENT SOUTH OF THE EXPANDING 500MB RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW FROM FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. ADD
IN DIURNAL HEATING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
FLARE UP. THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREAS APPEAR WITH THE SEA BREEZE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FROM LA TO
TX COAST. ALSO, A WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
COULD INDUCE A SORT OF INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND COULD BE ANOTHER LOCATION FOR SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING AROUND THE RING, THE NEXT HOT-SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS.
THE MOST ANOMALOUS PLUME WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD THE DESERT SW, AS
ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT WITH THE EVOLVING CLOSED LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN
CA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHERN WASATCH UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NV
TO THE CA SIERRA. MEANWHILE, AN EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED VORT AND
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH NM BEFORE
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT HERE WITH INCREASE INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN WELL CONCENTRATED RAINS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE AND PERHAPS INTO SERN CO AND WEST TX.

SHIFTING TO THE MIDWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER/MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATL REGION. THIS IS AN
AREA WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. A MCV WITH A CIRCULATION OVER ERN
IA AND NORTHERN IL WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NERN IL INTO
NORTHERN IN OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHEARING OUT THROUGH NORTHERN OH INTO
PA ON MON. THE 12Z ARW AND NMMB SHOW QUITE A NOCTURNAL BLOWUP OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO INTO NORTHERN
IN OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH THIS FEATURE DECAYING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM OH INTO PA AND NEAR A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OVER MD/VA ON MON. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT ARRIVING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
WI INTO SERN MN/NERN IA BEFORE A SMALL SCALE IMPULSE TRIGGERS A
POTENTIAL COMPLEX OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF IA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM CONEST AND
ARW2 LEADING THE WAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK DOWNSTREAM AND DECAY
BY MIDDAY ACROSS IL INTO MO BUT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL BACK
ACROSS IA INTO NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE CONVECTIVE RAINS TO
DEVELOP EAST TO WEST FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH NORTHERN NE. EXPECT
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES FROM
NE EAST THROUGH IA INTO PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/IN.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER


24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 521773 521767 520760 518750 516738 514730 510723 505717
      502707 498701 493697 487695 485694 482697 479706 479714
      483718 486727 489737 492744 499745 506748 510752 514759
      517769 521773
 0.01 504952 501947 499936 498931 494931 490937 487947 486949
      482951 479952 477957 477960 474964 470969 465974 465979
      468981 470984 474985 479981 482982 483987 483993 484997
      486000 488003 491002 493998 496990 501972 503962 504952
 0.01 479860 479852 479843 478837 476832 474827 471825 468824
      467821 463819 452828 448825 442825 436834 433837 432843
      431847 431855 429864 426862 426858 426855 426848 423843
      422832 424822 426815 425808 428804 431794 430790 432788
      434784 435769 436749 435743 432741 429741 429737 429732
      427731 425734 423739 419741 414742 410745 403746 401747
      398751 393753 389757 387760 377772 367772 369782 361800
      358811 352819 349822 347824 345821 347815 349810 347806
      346800 345793 345786 349783 357775 359772 359767 356764
      356761 358751 358745 356741 355735 356729 356724 355721
      352721 350720 347721 342730 339741 335749 334750 332748
      330745 328742 324744 320752 316761 307771 303776 299778
      294779 290778 280780 271787 263792 254794 250797 247800
      241807 241813 244816 253810 258808 263807 269813 277815
      281816 284814 288821 287824 283825 276824 272822 267823
      264823 261825 259828 257832 256837 258841 260846 264849
      267853 267858 267864 268871 272879 275883 278888 279892
      280899 278908 279912 278917 276926 272934 270939 267940
      253941 250950 253970 260988 277999 280998 281994 284990
      287989 292987 296985 299983 303979 302971 302964 305960
      307958 307954 313949 317946 321944 325945 327941 333934
      339932 337928 333928 320926 319923 321920 324918 328915
      331913 334913 339913 342911 343917 342922 346930 346943
      348946 348949 344956 342958 339958 334958 328965 326969
      331969 339965 354954 358947 363937 366936 371940 381941
      383942 384946 381951 379954 378959 381961 380968 381977
      380981 379978 377972 373963 371961 370965 373973 375978
      373983 367990 371990 374991 372994 367000 360006 351010
      336011 327025 329028 324030 314032 311032 306034 303036
      296036 293035 289036 284040 276044 269050 263054 258054
      254055
 0.01 254055 251055 249057 246061 245066 249069 256076 260079
      262082 270089 279092 284094 285099 286104 289108 292111
      296111 307109 310114 314116 320110 324109 328105 334111
      338108 342111 344116 345119 343122 342127 346129 353137
      346142 348145 350148 349151 350157 352159 352162 350167
      346171 348172 352171 354165 358164 363163 368164 370162
      370158 368153 365149 360149 357141 360137 363135 367132
      370132 372134 373139 379140 382131 387121 390117 394115
      403111 407109 408105 409103 408098 406098 404103 402106
      399104 393097 391097 392100 391105 388107 378109 374113
      369115 368112 370109 369105 364102 364099 365096 370097
      373101 375102 379099 384092 383087 383083 385082 388082
      390080 393076 398074 401070 405068 408064 412062 414057
      418056 420053 415051 412048 418043 416037 415033 420032
      423030 424032 431040 436040 440038 442033 447033 448040
      450040 452036 456033 461035 464039 466044 469042 470024
      471015 469009 466005 466002 463001 461006 457008 455007
      455005 451000 452992 454987 454979 454971 452968 453965
      453956 454950 458921 458914 461910 464901 463882 464875
      467871 475866 479860
 0.01 451869 451865 450861 446865 442869 440875 438883 434888
      433890 434892 437894 440892 442886 445884 445880 447875
      451869
 0.01 440902 440899 439897 438899 438902 439903 440902
 0.01 439981 438980 436980 435980 436982 438983 439981
 0.01 405215 406212 403210 399207 392200 385193 376187 367181
      357184 356185 362188 364193 368195 378201 386207 393208
      396211 401214 405215
 0.01 415015 415012 416010 415009 414010 413011 412012 411015
      409016 408017 407018 406019 406020 405021 405023 405025
      407025 409025 410024 411023 411022 413020 413019 414017
      414016 415015
 0.01 407989 406982 403982 399985 396991 394995 390000 388003
      385008 383012 386014 390011 394008 395005 397007 396011
      392023 394024 397019 401009 405998 407989
 0.01 392815 391810 388807 390800 387802 386805 383813 375827
      373835 372840 370843 364848 359853 353857 348860 343859
      338860 332863 325866 321873 319893 317902 318907 320908
      322907 322902 324898 327891 329887 330885 338882 354877
      358870 360867 364867 365871 366873 368872 372870 375872
      379871 382869 387864 387860 384857 378854 372855 376850
      381845 386844 386841 385836 387832 385824 389818 392815
 0.01 381172 381169 381167 381165 380162 380160 379158 379157
      377155 375154 375155 375157 374159 374161 374164 375166
      375168 375169 377171 379172 380172 381172
 0.01 381044 381042 380041 379040 378039 376038 375039 373041
      372041 373042 374043 375044 376045 377046 378047 379046
      380046 381044
 0.01 378033 380031 379029 378031 378033 378033
 0.01 378929 378927 377925 376925 375924 374925 373926 372927
      371928 370929 370930 368930 366932 368934 370934 371934
      373934 375934 377931 378929
 0.01 367086 366085 364084 363084 361084 359084 358085 359086
      359087 360089 362089 364089 366088 367086
 0.01 357107 355105 355104 354102 352100 352099 352097 351095
      349097 348099 348101 347103 348105 350106 352107 353108
      355108 357107
 0.01 329092 328088 324088 323085 322082 320082 318084 319088
      320091 321093 320095 318099 321101 323100 325096 327094
      329092
 0.01 270980 269978 268977 268976 266974 264974 264976 264977
      265978 266979 267980 268981 270980
 0.25 458896 459885 458876 456874 454873 451880 449883 449888
      447896 445902 443909 438911 435915 432914 431911 429906
      424902 422898 421887 420877 420867 420858 420844 418827
      417818 417811 421797 423792 426789 427784 426779 425774
      426769 428755 427753 424753 420749 418747 416749 414755
      411758 407757 403758 399761 392762 388763 385768 382773
      379775 378779 374778 375783 385786 388781 393778 397777
      399779 403780 408777 410780 410785 404790 402795 400797
      402797 407801 409804 407808 404813 403818 395823 394826
      397827 399830 401837 404842 406849 406859 405867 406875
      406883 405887 407887 410886 411889 411892 407892 401893
      397895 393896 392895 389888 388881 388875 380881 377887
      373891 380895 374896 371901 362897 358898 357901 355909
      356912 358907 362905 366907 369911 375913 379912 383908
      386909 385914 384921 388925 388929 387933 386940 388946
      388955 388964 389970 391975 394977 398972 400965 398961
      399954 402948 400943 399934 396927 395924 396920 396913
      395906 401904 404907 403912 404917 406922 408929 409933
      409941 410945 407947 405948 405951 408953 410951 411948
      413947 415949 415954 412959 412966 411972 414977 416995
      422005 424011 421015 423016 425013 428009 429003 427995
      427986 429978 435968 441965 442958 441950 441945 444945
      445937 445931 444923 448918 453915 456909 458896
 0.25 444022 444019 444018 442018 441017 439018 438019 437020
      436021 435023 435026 437027 438028 440027 441026 442025
      443024 444022 444022
 0.25 419761 418761 416761 416762 417764 418764 419761
 0.25 388201 387200 386199 384200 385201 387201 388201
 0.25 403033 404030 403030 403028 402027 400028 400030 401032
      401033 403033 403033
 0.25 398039 399037 398034 396035 394036 392038 391040 390041
      389043 389045 390047 390048 392049 393048 394047 395046
      396044 396043 397041 398041 398039
 0.25 399874 400871 398870 396870 395870 394872 393874 395876
      397876 398874 399874
 0.25 371190 371189 370188 369187 368186 366187 367188 369189
      369190 371190 371190
 0.25 382065 368062 364059 366056 369054 371052 370048 369045
      369040 372034 375030 374026 371027 370029 368032 366032
      364030 352022 347022 344025 337032 329034 323035 320038
      319040 316039 313037 309036 304038 301040 296041 293045
      289047 283053 280057 275059 267060 262062 260066 264072
      270080 274082 279084 286085 290085 295084 299082 302078
      306067 309064 313064 321064 324074 327078 332080 342080
      350083 355081 359078 365071 369069 373071 372085 375086
      376083 378078 382065
 0.25 384020 383019 381018 379018 378019 379021 381021 383020
      384020
 0.25 352751 351748 348747 342750 334755 331758 324759 318765
      308780 302787 300791 295794 287795 277797 276800 279801
      282802 282806 278809 279811 282809 284807 287808 291809
      298809 301811 303819 299822 296826 291833 290837 291839
      294842 295848 296853 299859 301862 303868 303872 304884
      305890 306895 308895 309892 310887 311881 311875 310872
      312867 315857 316854 314852 311851 303844 304841 308837
      311837 314832 315828 318823 324816 327813 330811 338805
      338799 340793 340781 338771 341768 345763 348756 352751
 0.25 354044 353043 351043 349044 350046 351047 351046 353046
      354044
 0.25 352919 352918 350918 348919 347921 348923 350923 351921
      352920 352919
 0.25 342098 340096 340095 338093 337095 336095 335097 335099
      336100 338101 339101 341100 342098 342098
 0.25 345048 345046 344044 344043 342042 340042 338042 337043
      335045 336047 336049 337049 338050 340051 342050 343050
      345048
 0.25 333060 332058 330058 328057 327058 325059 324059 324061
      324062 325063 326064 328064 330063 332062 333060
 0.25 298939 296935 295931 294924 293920 291916 288914 286918
      286920 288925 290929 292934 294939 297940 298939
 0.25 290966 290964 290962 290960 290958 288957 287957 286958
      285959 284960 283962 281964 281966 283968 284970 285970
      286971 288970 290968 290966 290966
 0.25 274828 272826 271827 269826 268827 267827 266829 267831
      268831 269831 271831 273830 274828 274828
 0.50 457896 456891 455889 456884 454879 453879 452882 451884
      450889 450894 450899 451903 452906 455908 455903 456898
      457896
 0.50 444935 443926 444918 444913 441911 440912 438916 435921
      431917 428911 427908 424906 420901 419895 417896 411897
      403897 399897 396900 399902 403902 410903 415906 417908
      417913 413914 408911 408916 409919 412927 413931 412934
      411939 412943 416947 417950 418955 416964 413969 412970
      414973 417981 418985 418990 420997 424001 426005 426000
      424991 426984 429975 430967 434961 437955 437947 437941
      437937 439936 443938 444935
 0.50 424784 422782 422781 421780 420778 419780 419783 420785
      420787 421789 422787 422786 424785 424784
 0.50 423761 422758 421757 421756 419755 418754 417754 417755
      418756 418757 419759 420761 422762 423761
 0.50 412765 411765 410763 409763 408762 406761 404760 402761
      401762 400762 399765 401767 402767 403767 405768 406768
      407769 408770 410769 411768 412766 412765
 0.50 418875 417870 417863 415857 413854 409850 408854 408858
      408864 408871 409877 411882 413885 416887 417882 418875
      418875
 0.50 415823 416821 416818 415816 415814 415811 414810 412811
      410812 409813 407814 406815 405816 405817 406819 407820
      408822 409823 411824 413825 415825 415823
 0.50 414837 414835 414837 414838 414837
 0.50 412796 412793 411791 410791 409792 407794 407796 409798
      411797 412796
 0.50 408775 408773 407771 405773 404775 403776 404777 406777
      407775 408775
 0.50 409949 407949 406949 407950 409950 409949
 0.50 394768 394766 392764 390763 388764 388765 387767 387769
      388772 389773 391773 393773 394771 394769 394768
 0.50 395970 395966 394963 393960 393956 393954 393952 391948
      390952 390956 389961 390965 390970 391973 393975 394972
      395970
 0.50 395936 395933 395931 394929 393928 392929 391929 390931
      390933 390936 391938 392938 393939 393938 395936 395936
 0.50 387776 387774 386774 385774 384775 382776 381777 380777
      380780 381781 382782 383782 384781 385781 386779 386778
      387776
 0.50 393920 393917 393915 392913 391911 391910 390911 389911
      388913 387915 387918 387919 388920 389922 391924 392922
      393921 393920
 0.50 387899 387895 387893 387890 386888 385886 382886 381888
      381893 381897 378898 375900 376904 378907 380907 382906
      384904 386902 387899
 0.50 375082 375080 374078 373080 373082 373084 375082
 0.50 373030 374028 373027 372028 371029 371030 371031 373030
      373030
 0.50 367052 365047 364043 362043 358046 355051 354055 354060
      352060 349062 350065 353065 356067 358073 361067 360060
      363056 367052
 0.50 361034 359032 355033 350034 342033 337036 335037 331036
      328037 326040 329042 333041 339039 346041 353040 357038
      361034
 0.50 356075 358073 356072 354073 353074 352075 352077 352078
      354078 355078 356076 356075
 0.50 342757 341755 340755 340756 341757 342757 342757
 0.50 341759 341758 340757 339756 337758 337759 337760 337762
      338763 339762 340762 341760 341759
 0.50 345057 345054 343053 341053 340052 338052 337052 336051
      335049 334048 333049 331051 331053 332055 333056 334056
      336057 338057 339056 341057 343059 345058 345057
 0.50 340076 341072 341067 340067 337069 335069 331068 330067
      326068 324070 325074 327076 329077 332077 334077 338077
      340076
 0.50 337791 336786 333785 332787 330791 328794 326799 323802
      321806 319804 317800 314797 310795 308795 308808 307812
      312813 312816 306817 304816 305821 302823 300825 301827
      297829 294832 293837 297837 302837 303835 304831 313830
      314825 317821 323816 328808 331806 334802 333795 337793
      337791
 0.50 328053 328048 325045 321044 317044 312039 309037 306038
      304043 300044 300049 292051 287054 282059 279066 269065
      267067 269069 274073 281078 287078 290077 293074 296067
      301063 304061 308061 316060 320059 323057 328053
 0.50 310867 310858 309850 306852 305859 305867 304874 306880
      305886 307887 309880 309873 310867
 0.50 304802 303801 301801 301802 301803 303802 304802
 0.50 303848 302846 301845 299845 299844 298844 297845 297847
      297849 298849 299851 299853 300854 300853 301851 302850
      303848
 0.50 298802 297800 296800 294799 293799 292798 290798 288798
      286799 286800 286802 287803 288804 289804 291805 293805
      294805 296804 298802
 1.00 442923 442921 443918 442916 441914 440915 439916 439918
      438921 438923 439926 440927 441925 442924 442923
 1.00 433933 434926 431922 422924 420921 415920 413921 413924
      415928 418938 418945 419952 419963 420971 423974 425975
      427973 427966 426961 428957 432949 433942 432935 433933
 1.00 416879 417877 416875 416872 415870 414868 414867 412866
      411868 411870 412873 412875 412877 412880 413882 414883
      416882 416880 416879
 1.00 414863 414861 413860 413861 413863 414865 414863
 1.00 391769 391766 390766 389767 390769 391769 391769
 1.00 347037 346037 344036 343037 344037 346037 347037
 1.00 340054 338054 336054 334053 334054 336054 338054 339054
      340054
 1.00 324810 324808 324807 322807 321808 320809 319810 317810
      316811 317811 319811 321812 322812 323812 324810 324810
 1.00 322054 321052 320054 321055 322054
 1.00 310058 310057 308057 307057 308058 310058 310058
 1.00 306827 306825 305823 303824 302825 304826 305827 306827
 1.00 306055 305055 303055 301053 300055 301057 302057 303057
      304057 305057 306055
 1.50 442921 442918 441917 440917 439918 439921 440923 441921
      442921
 1.50 432930 432928 432926 431925 429926 429928 428930 428931
      428933 430934 431933 432930
 1.50 428945 428939 424936 422936 420938 419945 420952 421959
      421964 424968 425966 425959 426953 428947 428945
 1.50 422931 421928 420926 419924 419923 417923 417924 416926
      417928 417929 418931 419932 421933 422931
 1.50 415879 415877 415875 414874 414875 414877 414879 414881
      415879
 2.00 426945 426941 424940 422940 421942 420947 421952 422954
      422959 423959 423954 425952 424947 426945

$$





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