Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 18/0000 UTC THRU JAN 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

OUR EASTERN SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE COAST TONIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL
ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MORNING AND ACROSS MAINE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER PORTIONS OF NC/VA. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DEEPER WITH THE WAVE...RESULTING IN A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR
QPF...BUT LEANED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
RUNS TO CAPTURE THESE TRENDS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST INTO
THURSDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE
BASE OF THE DEEP LOW WILL HELP KEEP THIS FRONT PROGRESSIVE IN
NATURE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1" ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED 0.5" IN AN HOUR AMOUNTS IN THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. HOWEVER THESE HIGHER RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PWAT
PLUME. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A
MULTI MODEL BLEND GIVEN GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH MORE
WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. THIS KEPT PRETTY GOOD
CONTINUITY FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.75"-1.5" (LOCALLY HIGHER) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WA/OR
CASCADES...THE OLYMPICS OF WA AND THE NORTHERN CA SIERRAS. HIGHEST
TOTALS OF 1.5"-3" OVER THE DAY 1 PERIOD (0Z THU-0Z FRI) SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHWEST CA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OR.

CHENARD


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 507304 503299 496295 491294 488295 483299 477302 475304
      472303 468301 465297 459295 446285 441283 438280 430277
      418269 410266 402266 390269 381255 365250 360249 359246
      358237 357221 358218 362217 369213 374213 378214 381211
      385204 389198 396201 402201 406199 409195 410192 414189
      431168 434166 436163 437156 434153 432149 431145 428142
      426140 425142 424146 422148 421145 422134 423129 424127
      427119 429110 430102 429097 427094 428089 433094 436096
      439096 444098 446100 446104 448108 451107 451115 447124
      446130 448135 448139 444139 442142 444143 447145 451143
      453139 451136 460132 465125 468122 471122 484126 488127
      491130 496137 507144 515149 519151 521154 529165 533172
      536180 540189 542198
 0.01 538214 535215 533215 531217 528218 526218 523218 523221
      524224 524227 525230 526233 527238 527242 528245 528247
 0.01 506766 505752 504738 502724 501717 499713 498708 496704
      494702 489703 485704 484709 483713 484720 486724 485728
      482728 478724 476724 478728 479734 478739 474748 471756
      470761 471768 475775 480781 484788 489794 494792 496790
      502784 505777 505769 506766
 0.01 490646 488633 487629 484628 480627 476627 468628 458631
      451635 443639 437642 428646 425647 422650 418652 414655
      408662 406665 401667 394668 388670 380674 373678 368682
      353694 342704 331714 320724 313731 312734 313737 315739
      316744 313751 307767 285788 287791 291793 297794 305793
      311790 319786 324788 328791 331795 334798 338798 342799
      347799 356797 360796 363794 368795 364788 365780 375764
      379757 381750 383741 387735 396724 402716 407708 411702
      415694 417687 421680 427674 434677 435682 436685 435688
      431695 425703 424706 425708 433706 439702 446699 453696
      458692 462691 468684 485658 489652 490646
 0.01 497957 498949 497940 497934 496931 496927 492916 489914
      484914 481913 481909 484904 486899 487894 484882 481877
      479874 476875 472880 470889 470891 468893 465895 462900
      463906 469906 473908 475910 475914 474920 474936 475942
      476947 477952 479957 479961 477967 477974 479977 482977
      483975 486970 491970 494970 496965 496959 497957
 0.01 474715 473710 471708 469702 467702 462701 457703 455706
      452708 450711 450715 451718 449726 451730 453730 457729
      458726 464721 472718 474715
 0.01 478852 478843 476840 471838 466838 460829 456820 454823
      454827 455835 455844 451847 448850 446855 441858 441864
      452862 456858 459854 462850 468849 477853 478852
 0.01 454796 455791 454786 453784 452784 450787 448790 446792
      447797 448802 449804 450807 452809 454808 454803 454799
      454796
 0.01 448744 447741 444741 437742 432746 432754 433763 435770
      437778 439777 439772 440765 443759 446754 447746 448744
 0.01 431785 431783 429783 427783 427784 426786 426789 426791
      428791 430788 431786 431785
 0.01 303030 303023 301021 298019 294020 290018 288014 285011
      282013 279016 277020 281026 285029 287030 288033 286037
      285043 287052 291054 294053 295042 297037 301034 303030
 0.01 231971 236977 240979 242982 240985 242988 248992 255996
      262998 265997 269999 273999 277001 285004 289002 290996
      289992 282989 279987 277986 275983 273976 276969 276963
      274960 273956 270953 261952 258951 255953 246954 238953
      234954 233957 231961
 0.01 276797 275795 272793 269793 267791 264792 262793 258794
      255795 253797 253798 257799 259800 263799 266799 270798
      273798 276797
 0.25 519271 521259 519250 515238 513226 508209 504200 501196
      498195 493192 490193 486192 487190 487186 491184 495189
      497188 510192 516191 522188 526187 526182 522174 517165
      512156 508151 501146 497143 494140 489133 486131 482129
      476132 472136 470142 463145 458155 457160 458164 455164
      454162 452159 451161 449165 449169 449172 451175 452180
      451183 449187 451191 455191 459188 465185 471180 475181
      478183 483189 484193 483196 481200 475204 469208 464207
      461206 459209 456211 452213 446213 438211 433209 430207
      428202 425200 418200 414201 413204 413205 408208 396205
      392205 390210 392216 404226 401228 397227 387226 383225
      381227 380233 382236 387243 394249 402253 411254 420255
      429254 441249 449247 457247 510286 519271
 0.25 494238 493235 492232 491229 489226 487225 484225 482224
      481229 482232 484235 488234 491236 492238 494238
 0.25 470645 468641 463641 460641 456643 452645 449649 449655
      452657 457656 462655 467652 469648 470645
 0.25 422217 422214 421213 420211 419211 418211 417213 417215
      419218 421218 422217
 0.25 396705 396698 393692 387692 383695 373701 363705 357706
      352710 346717 339725 333732 330737 329742 325753 324758
      325763 329766 334767 337769 343771 346769 350765 357758
      360754 365751 372744 378737 385728 390719 394712 396705
 0.25 262970 261966 257963 254961 248961 243961 239962 235963
      233967 235971 239973 244973 250973 255972 259971 262970
 0.50 514264 515255 514249 512235 506213 503207 499204 492202
      488200 482204 474210 472212 470211 464210 455214 451215
      446215 437216 428219 423222 424227 427232 433233 436236
      432237 427235 425231 415227 416224 418223 417220 411212
      401209 398207 394207 392213 395216 398219 404221 407225
      408227 408231 405232 396229 395228 394231 394238 401247
      422249 432248 438243 443241 447241 459240 467238 470238
      472240 476244 480247 484250 489262 494272 501278 504280
      506280 508270 514264
 0.50 512178 512173 510169 506163 501157 499153 499149 494143
      490137 488134 484132 482133 480137 486142 487144 485148
      483151 479151 477152 472152 468150 465152 462155 463160
      467161 470163 476167 478170 482172 490174 494175 498174
      502169 505172 507177 508180 510181 512178
 0.50 497244 495240 494235 492230 491225 488223 484222 480223
      480229 482234 484238 487237 492239 495243 497244
 0.50 495153 494152 493150 491149 490150 491151 491152 492154
      494155 495153
 0.50 461233 461230 462228 461228 460228 459229 458228 456228
      454228 452229 451229 450229 449231 448231 448232 450234
      452235 453234 455233 457233 459233 460233 461233
 0.50 463181 463178 461177 459178 457180 457182 458183 460183
      461183 462181 463181
 0.50 429214 430212 429209 427207 426207 424208 425210 425211
      427213 428214 429214
 0.50 383718 384712 381708 378707 374709 360711 354714 350718
      346724 342729 338735 336741 334749 335754 337756 342760
      348756 359749 368741 377730 381725 383719 383718
 0.50 249968 248967 246966 244966 243966 241966 239966 237966
      235967 237969 238969 239970 241970 243970 244970 246970
      246969 248968 249968
 1.00 507240 507235 506229 504218 502213 499210 492209 488206
      484208 480208 477211 475215 476218 485220 492219 494230
      497239 502243 505245 507240
 1.00 500269 502265 502262 501256 499252 496248 493244 490240
      486241 486247 489252 490255 492261 494264 496268 500269
 1.00 481242 481239 481236 480234 480232 479231 478229 477229
      475230 474232 473234 474237 475239 476240 477241 478241
      480242 481242
 1.00 485164 486161 485159 483159 482160 483163 485164 485164
 1.00 470220 471217 470214 465213 458215 450218 445217 441217
      438220 434221 430221 428222 428225 435230 438230 442228
      450227 453224 458225 462225 467224 470220
 1.00 429245 431243 430241 428238 423235 418232 413231 409235
      402234 400237 401241 402242 404240 410241 416244 421246
      427246 429245
 1.00 413221 412218 408216 407215 403214 400211 398210 396210
      397212 398215 401217 404218 406220 409223 413221
 1.00 360725 358721 354721 351724 349727 346731 344735 343739
      345743 350745 355741 356737 357733 359729 360725
 1.50 499263 500258 499255 497252 496250 494248 491245 489247
      490250 490253 491256 493259 494262 497265 499263
 1.50 503236 503231 502227 502222 502219 500215 499214 497213
      495215 494220 494225 494228 495231 496234 499237 503236
 1.50 490216 491214 491213 489211 488210 486212 485215 486218
      487218 488219 489218 490216 490216
 1.50 479238 480236 479234 479233 478231 476232 475235 475237
      476238 477238 479239 479238
 1.50 463221 463218 461218 459218 458219 459221 460222 462222
      463221
 1.50 448224 449222 448221 447221 446221 446223 448224 448224
 1.50 428243 427240 425238 421236 420235 418235 416234 414234
      413238 415241 417242 420243 423244 425244 428243
 2.00 498260 498258 498257 497255 497254 495252 494251 492253
      492256 493257 493259 494260 496262 497262 498260
 2.00 500232 500230 500229 500227 500224 500222 500221 499219
      498218 497218 497219 495220 495222 494223 494224 495225
      495228 495229 496231 497231 498233 500232 500232
 2.00 425242 424240 423239 423238 421237 419237 418236 416237
      415239 415240 417240 419241 420242 422243 424243 425242

$$





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