Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 311854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/0000 UTC THRU AUG 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHEAST...

A BROAD AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
STRENGTH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR THE COAST OF
FLORIDA...PERHAPS AIDED BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION IN
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE MEASURED
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.05 INCHES TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
WITH GENERALLY NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC FORCING...PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
LOCATION WILL BE LARGELY CONTROLLED BY THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...A
COLD FRONT IN SC/GA AND SOUTHERN AL...AND SEA BREEZES ELSEWHERE.
VERY SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN...WHILE OUTFLOWS
GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO CONSUME THE AVAILABLE CAPE
WEDGED INTO THE SE U.S. TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE OFFSHORE
INTO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW...RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OFFSHORE...BUT CERTAINLY DUMPS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN ON LAND ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST
OUTFLOW TO ALSO RUN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
THE FL/GA BORDER AREA...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. WPC QPF TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z SSEO MEAN AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THIS REPRESENTED AN
INCREASE TO AMOUNTS AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN
GA AND EXTENDING UP ALONG THE SC COASTLINE.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES / SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS...AND LITTLE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SPEAK OF...THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS THIS WEEK HAD
TENDED TO FORM LAZILY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THEN ROLL
OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. ANOTHER WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING...AND MAY LEND SOME ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE
CHALLENGE IS THAT THE AXIS OF GREATEST DAY 1 PRECIPITATION IN THE
MODELS IS ALONG THE STABLE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS THAT WAS
DRIFTING INTO WESTERN OK AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED...HOWEVER...THAT RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY...AND THE RAP BUILDS
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD THE 00Z SSEO MEAN AND 12Z NSSL WRF...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
NUDGE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL AN AXIS OF 0.50 TO 1.5 INCH AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CENTERED NEAR/SOUTH OF AMARILLO THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF ACTIVITY IS BOUNDED BY A GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE DEPTH...SEEN EASILY AT 925 MB. THIS GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH WESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FROM MAKING IT ANY FARTHER EAST THAN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDWEST...

CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THIS REGION.

DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS...BUT THE MOISTURE FETCH IS SOMEWHAT
OFFSET FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND MODEST
MOISTURE THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE DISPARATE WITH RESPECT TO
LOCATION...TIMING...AND AMOUNTS. JUDGING BY THE 12Z OMAHA SOUNDING
AND MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ROOTED NEAR THE 305
K ISENTROPIC LEVEL...WITHIN WARM ADVECTION TO THE REAR OF A
SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AFFECTING NE/IA/MO. OTHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NE...WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED AS A SHARPER SHORTWAVE DIGS
DOWN ON SATURDAY. THE DEEPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY
ALSO LEAD TO A SEPARATE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
NORTH...AFFECTING MN/IA/WI/IL/IN. THE WPC FORECAST IS BASED ON
MODELS THAT HAD SOME SIGNAL OF THESE THINGS...ALTHOUGH THEIR QPF
COULD NOT BE SAID TO SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS. THE
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 09Z SREF...00Z ECMWF...AND 12Z WRF-NMMB.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 538183 539172 539163 537156 534151 527149 523152 521160
      522168 525174 528179 530185 533186 536185 538183
 0.01 493677 492671 490667 483663 474661 472660 467663 456676
      445694 441702 436708 428716 420721 419723 421728 426728
      428732 429740 428747 425757 420763 417772 408791 408798
      409803 412806 411810 409816 409823 410830 410833 412835
      420835 423833 426829 431820 435811 442793 445788 448785
      455779 462773 467772 469769 474759 477747 481728 481721
      481713 480708 482706 484701 489690 492682 493677
 0.01 506875 506870 504862 500852 493848 482849 473850 470852
      469850 466846 459842 454842 450845 448849 448855 446861
      447865 448867 452865 454860 457855 462856 462863 464869
      466874 464878 462883 463889 463900 466903 470901 478895
      483894 486892 498891 503886 506875
 0.01 476994 475985 474981 472977 464959 458959 454959 451961
      441961 436961 431959 421951 417944 414935 411928 406923
      399919 396920 393917 391915 388915 383919 380927 383936
      385943 389950 395955 399963 405976 407987 406998 406007
      408016 410020 413023 416026 421025 426022 430016 441003
      445998 451998 454996 459997 465002 469002 472000 476994
 0.01 450949 450942 449937 446932 442928 442921 441915 436902
      432894 430887 428881 427874 425868 424861 421855 419851
      416847 412843 410841 407842 406845 407851 409857 410866
      410870 408874 407880 408887 413895 419905 423915 428928
      433935 439936 443940 444943 447947 449950 450949
 0.01 419034 419031 414033 410035 407037 403039 401042 397046
      397048 402049 404047 405044 408042 412041 414042 415041
      417036 419034
 0.01 396208 392200 391197 392193 396184 398180 397175 394165
      388158 380151 378148 377141 380120 384111 387102 391091
      392084 390077 389073 390069 392069 396066 397060 398053
      396050 394047 393042 389035 385037 380037 377036 376034
      376030 377026 379013 380004 380990 377983 371978 361978
      351977 345977 341980 334987 329995 322000 306004 302004
      298006 292010 289014 285016 286020 291023 295025 299024
      305024 309022 312020 317020 321021 324023 330028 334037
      337040 336043 329049 325052 325057 326063 326070 325074
      324079 316081 311081 308082 304084 299084 276077 271076
      267078 264082 263086 264095 268102 271104 276105 284108
      295112 302116 307119 311123 314131 320137 326142 331144
      332148 337154 338160 338164 334165 336168 341172 343175
      343178 345180 344176 345170 353169 359175 360179 359183
      364189 366194 370197 374200 372202 372204 374205 376204
      381207 389212 394210 396208
 0.01 377696 369682 365682 362684 355689 352692 350696 346706
      341714 337721 328731 318744 312751 305756 298762 290767
      283770 278774 273781 272789 272792 270792 264793 259795
      257797 256799 253803 252807 252812 255815 258813 260814
      264815 264817 260818 257820 255823 256829 258832 263833
      272835 274839 276843 277857 276865 275873 272881 267887
      261893 253898 248904 245908 245913 245924 245928 244931
      241938 239947 239953 241958 244960 248961 253960 256958
      261958 265957 267954 268950 270941 272933 275926 280918
      283910 284907 286908 288913 294913 297911 299908 300904
      302897 306889 310882 315875 320868 331853 334846 335837
      336827 338819 341810 345800 352783 362772 360750 364740
      367731 372711 377696
 0.25 477684 474678 470677 467679 457692 450705 443720 440725
      437734 437742 439753 441755 443754 448747 451728 453721
      456714 465701 471697 476691 477684
 0.25 428983 428978 426973 419969 416963 413952 411943 406936
      402931 398929 394929 392932 391936 393945 402960 405966
      412970 414974 415980 411989 412998 412005 414010 420013
      422010 424004 424994 426988 428985 428983
 0.25 424888 423883 422881 421878 419876 416876 414877 412880
      412884 413887 415890 417892 418894 420893 423891 424888
 0.25 375189 375187 373186 371188 373190 374190 375189
 0.25 368700 367695 363692 359695 355698 348709 343719 338726
      333736 327746 323750 318753 311759 304767 294788 294795
      293800 286807 282811 280813 280817 279819 276821 270820
      264820 261823 260826 262828 266830 273830 278833 280840
      281848 280855 281861 281874 281879 283881 285881 287879
      294870 296867 299865 306872 310869 314864 320854 325846
      327834 329805 328800 325796 330786 335775 342766 348758
      353749 358737 362724 365713 367706 368700
 0.25 379083 378077 376073 374070 373063 374060 374052 371042
      371034 373021 371007 369003 365999 360994 353989 348987
      344989 340993 338997 336001 336007 338017 339023 336028
      336032 336035 340038 345044 349052 354061 352066 350070
      345075 342080 339082 340073 338072 336073 333076 330078
      328082 325086 327090 331090 335093 336098 338102 340106
      340111 340118 341124 345128 349128 353129 356128 359124
      357117 355113 351109 347107 344105 345103 347096 350090
      354090 359089 361083 367076 371077 372080 375084 379083
 0.25 367122 366121 365121 364121 364123 364124 365123 366123
      367122
 0.25 319110 319108 318108 318110 319110
 0.25 293100 294097 293095 289092 286090 282088 278086 274085
      271089 274094 277096 281098 285100 290101 293100
 0.25 275805 275801 274798 272797 268797 265798 263799 259801
      258803 257805 258809 260810 262809 265808 269808 273807
      275805
 0.25 277908 277901 275894 270894 265896 261900 257905 253915
      251920 252927 252935 250941 248947 250951 252952 259944
      263941 266935 268931 272925 276914 277908
 0.50 411959 410954 409949 407945 404940 402937 396936 396943
      398947 400950 402954 405958 409960 411959
 0.50 363704 362699 358700 353708 347718 341726 337734 333742
      332750 330754 327758 321758 317758 314760 307767 304772
      303777 299787 299794 300800 298804 295807 286814 283817
      282823 280826 280829 282836 283842 284854 286866 290867
      293864 299858 308837 316850 320846 322841 323835 323827
      319819 316815 315811 314798 319791 341759 344759 346756
      350747 354737 358725 360714 363704
 0.50 370023 369018 367012 365007 362004 355996 351994 347994
      345995 344000 345006 346011 348017 350021 352026 355031
      358036 358043 360044 363043 366039 366032 366029 370024
      370023
 0.50 366070 366068 366067 364066 362065 360065 360067 360069
      361072 361074 361076 363074 363073 364072 365070 366070
 0.50 344094 344092 344089 342088 341089 341091 340093 339095
      340097 342098 343096 344095 344094
 0.50 306833 306831 306829 306828 305827 305825 304823 303821
      301821 300823 300825 300826 300827 302829 302830 304831
      306833 306833
 0.50 275828 274826 274824 272823 270823 268823 267824 265825
      267827 269827 271827 273828 274828 275828
 0.50 269802 268801 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268803
      269802
 0.50 274912 273903 271900 267900 262903 257909 254915 253918
      253923 254931 254936 255940 261937 266931 270925 272919
      274912
 1.00 352729 351726 349727 348729 347730 346731 345732 345733
      345734 347736 349735 350734 350733 350731 351729 352729
 1.00 360023 360018 360015 359011 357009 356007 355004 353001
      349000 348004 349008 350011 351013 352016 354019 355022
      357024 360023
 1.00 323775 322772 320770 317766 314765 312766 308771 306777
      305782 304786 305791 306793 310793 313790 317785 321780
      323775
 1.00 317838 316836 316834 316832 316830 316828 315826 314825
      313824 312823 311823 309824 310826 311828 311829 312830
      313832 313834 314834 315837 315839 316840 317838
 1.00 304842 303838 300834 298828 295820 293817 290818 286825
      285833 285844 286854 288857 291860 296853 299846 304842
 1.00 268921 269915 269909 266905 262907 259911 257915 255918
      256921 257927 259931 261931 265929 267925 268921
 1.50 315777 315774 314772 313771 311773 310775 310776 309778
      308780 309782 311784 312782 313781 314780 315779 315777
      315777
 1.50 302840 299834 296829 292825 291823 288825 287831 287839
      287846 287852 291856 293851 296846 300842 302840
 1.50 266913 266910 264909 262910 261912 259915 258917 259921
      259923 260927 263927 263925 263921 264919 266915 266913
 2.00 300840 299836 297832 293828 291825 289825 288829 288835
      288839 288845 289852 291851 293847 296844 299842 300840
 3.00 298840 298838 297836 296834 295832 293831 291830 290833
      290834 289835 289837 290839 291841 291843 292844 294843
      295843 296842 297841 298840
 4.00 297838 296836 295834 293832 292832 291834 291835 291837
      292839 293841 294841 295841 295840 297838

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.