Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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416
FXUS04 KWBC 191033
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
533 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 19/1200 UTC THRU JAN 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN U.S...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE PLAINS...BRINGING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE UP THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. AT 10Z
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BLOSSOMING AND CONGEALING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEALED A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MEXICO...WITHIN THE
PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAVING A CONNECTION TO THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS CONNECTION SUPPORTS MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT PLUME/POOL TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS
THE FORCING ARRIVES EARLY TODAY...EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LA/MS AS THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW AMPLIFIES TO MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER ASCENT THROUGH
15-16Z. THE EVENT WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE AND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW IN OK/TX
SWING EASTWARD. OVERALL...WHEN CHOOSING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS A BASIS
FOR THE UPDATED QPF...FACTORS SUCH AS TIME OF DAY...TIME OF
YEAR...AND DEEPLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES...IN OTHER WORDS
LITTLE EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL...ALL ARGUED FOR KEEPING THE HEAVIER
SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION TIED RELATIVELY CLOSELY TO THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING. THUS...FOR PLACEMENT OF THE QPF WE TRENDED TOWARD THE
WRF-NMM AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TONING DOWN SOME OF THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION BUT TONING UP THE AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS
PUSHES 24-HOUR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES IN A FAIRLY BROAD ZONE FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FROM
ANALOG EVENTS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PROPAGATION AND INTERCEPTION OF MOISTURE AND LOWER LATITUDES WHICH
COULD CUT DOWN ON AMOUNTS UP INTO TENNESSEE. JUDGING BY THE PRECIP
RATES IN THE HI-RES MODELS...AND CONSIDERING THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE WITH PW ANOMALIES PLUS-2.5 TO 3.0...IT APPEARS 3-HOURLY
FFG OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IS ACHIEVABLE...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF LA/MS/AL/TN.


...WESTERN U.S...

ONE PROGRESSIVE...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS ONE APPROACHES THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY. BROAD AND MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING
THE FIRST WAVE WAS YIELDING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION FROM BORDER TO BORDER THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
DAY...BEFORE THE CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PINCHES OFF
AND RELOADS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ASIDE FROM THIS
STREAM AFFECTING CALIFORNIA...THE LEAD WAVE WILL WORK WITH
SEASONABLY MODEST MOISTURE ANOMALIES OF PLUS-1.0 TO 1.5...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...INCLUDING DOWN INTO ARIZONA...WHILE SUCH
WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO EXPERIENCE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE LEAD WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE DIVIDE AND
DRYING OUT IN AN AREAL AVERAGE SENSE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OREGON
TO AROUND MONTEREY CA. VERY STRONG 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 170 KNOT JET STREAK WILL LIKELY MEAN SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAINFALL COMING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THE TIME...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RUNOFF OR SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST. FOR QPF WPC LEANED ON OUR
IN-HOUSE POST-PROCESSED ENSEMBLE TOOL...USING THE WETTER...NON
BIAS-CORRECTED VERSION...WHICH WAS SPATIALLY SIMILAR TO THE
WRF-ARW.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

OTHER THAN THE 00Z GFS`S MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF BOTH HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE USED TO DERIVE THE
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND SMALL VARIATIONS IN SYSTEM DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS SUPPORT GOOD CONTINUITY AS WELL. ONE TO TWO-DAY BASIN AVERAGE
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES/SIERRAS/MOGOLLON RIM...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE OVER THE SOUTHERN WASATCH. THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING NEGATIVE TILT SUPPORT 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8.5 DEGREES C...SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. REFER TO THE
QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOWFALL.

PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN BORDER...THUS ACCESSING ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE...RESULTING
IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SECONDARY AXIS NEAR THE
PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT UPPER LOW REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. USED AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z
GFS/12-00Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE TOTALS...WITH THE 00Z NAM
CONSIDERED TOO FAST IN MOST AREAS...THUS RECEIVING VERY LITTLE
WEIGHTING. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE WITH THE BROAD STRIPE OF LOW
VALUES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND LOW WITH THE SATURDAY EVENT
CLOSE TO THE SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE JUST
A SMALL SHIFT IN PATH OR SPEED WOULD DISPLACE THE LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS TO A NEW LOCATION. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS ALSO
MODERATE BY SATURDAY...SUPPORTING MINIMAL CONFIDENCE.

LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

APPROXIMATELY 2 SIGNIFICANT ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
DETAILS)...THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE STORMS THAT CONTAIN DEEP
AND INTENSE UPDRAFTS...THUS HIGH RAIN RATES...ALONG WITH VEERING
WINDS TO SUPPORT TRAINING AND/OR SUPERCELLS FOR SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS...WARRANT VARIOUS RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE NEAR LOUISIANA FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE RESIDUAL AND/OR REFORMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. USED AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z GFS AND
12-00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FIRST EVENT...WITH THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONSIDERED TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT THE MAJORITY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ADVECT AND PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE
FAST FLOW TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH
MAY HELP TO REDUCE FFG VALUES FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. USED MORE OF A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE
00Z NAM WHICH MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO
DERIVE THE AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF DAY 3 THAT INCLUDES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO HELP ADDRESS THE GROWING SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS
ARE MOVE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS DUE TO SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS TRAINING DUE TO VEERING WINDS
THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS THAT MAY ALLOW SHORT TERM RAIN RATES TO
EVENTUALLY EXCEED FFG VALUES. GIVEN THE THRESHOLD FOR A SLIGHT
RISK IS JUST 5 TO 10 PERCENT...A BROAD SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WAS INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF SC/GA/FL FOR DAY 3.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY AVERAGE...WHICH IS A RESULT OF GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE
AGREEMENT...YET HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME DOMINANT AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

BURKE/JAMES

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 522264 520251 517240 509221 503209 504203 505201 509202
      516213 519216 525218 528219 530217 533212 538203 533185
      528175 525168 523165 520164 516161 511159 504150 502144
      496141 487136 484133 480131 474129 468132 465131 466121
      468115 470108 470100 471093 468085 468078 466071 464067
      460064 454059 449057 446055 434058 420057 415055 408056
      397050 374048 366051 363052 359055 353056 348054 345054
      343056 341059 340063 340067 338069 335071 329072 325074
      319084 314092 309098 305102 304107 302115 303121 303130
      304137 307138 311136 322133 324134 324138 323142 326146
      330144 335146 338148 339151 337154 331152 310149 304152
      300156 299163 299169 305178 315183 323198 328203 327209
      328223 330236 332240 336244 350259 356266 359269 363271
      377275 392281 414290 434289 441288 449286 461283 469281
      479279 484279 489281 511293
 0.01 481690 479679 475672 473669 472663 470651 469646 467642
      466639 463635 460634 458634 451639 448645 446653 444661
      443665 440670 436675 434679 435683 438689 444693 447692
      449690 458687 461689 464688 471691 476696 479696 480693
      481690
 0.01 475197 475193 473191 471189 467187 464184 458187 454191
      452195 450197 446197 442190 439190 437187 431193 426191
      425189 425184 429182 432181 431176 428173 425174 421178
      420183 420190 420195 427201 431207 437212 446213 459205
      465203 470203 472200 475197
 0.01 478150 479147 479145 478143 477142 475142 473142 471143
      470145 471148 472150 474149 474148 474149 476150 477151
      478150
 0.01 463173 463171 462168 460166 459165 457167 457169 457172
      458174 459175 461175 463173
 0.01 455712 454710 454708 452708 451711 449711 449714 448717
      448719 450719 451716 452716 453713 455713 455712
 0.01 462918 462910 461904 459892 452874 449862 446858 443853
      438844 434835 423820 413808 408800 403792 401786 396782
      388780 376782 373784 368786 360789 351791 347792 344796
      337805 332812 328815 323816 317816 312815 304818 297823
      293828 286833 281837 279842 275850 273861 268880 266888
      263895 260901 260906 259917 258924 256928 253937 248945
      246949 246954 246976 248980 252983 262986 272986 282985
      290981 296976 307966 320952 327944 332939 339931 344926
      357917 363915 367916 374922 380929 381932 379933 375936
      368942 362946 359949 359953 361956 365957 370956 375954
      381947 384943 385938 386936 389936 391938 397938 401937
      406936 409938 412940 417941 425940 428939 431940 435942
      445942 457930 460927 461925 462918
 0.01 438182 438180 438177 437175 436177 435179 435181 436184
      438182
 0.01 439762 439760 439757 439755 439753 438750 436750 435751
      434751 433754 433756 432758 432759 432761 432764 432766
      433768 433769 435769 435768 436766 436765 438763 439763
      439762
 0.01 428084 427080 425077 422077 420079 416080 414081 413083
      411087 412092 413094 415097 417099 420100 422095 422091
      424089 426087 428084
 0.01 402195 403192 402188 400185 398183 395184 391184 388181
      383181 382185 384189 389192 392193 397196 400197 402195
 0.01 334058 334057 332055 330055 328057 327057 326057 327057
      328058 330058 332058 334058 334058
 0.25 530205 530194 527186 525184 521183 519183 517180 515176
      512175 507174 504173 505176 508183 514188 517195 522201
      528205 530205
 0.25 515267 516260 516256 514248 509235 506226 501217 497211
      491207 483205 478208 474213 472215 468214 461214 457215
      454219 451227 449230 446231 433234 428230 423225 419217
      416210 413207 410206 404205 390197 380190 374186 366182
      350180 346173 344167 340163 333162 323160 318159 314161
      313165 315168 319173 324178 328183 338191 341193 346194
      351190 354191 357194 362199 364202 363205 356205 350208
      351215 355222 356227 355232 354238 355243 357250 360256
      365261 376267 386271 395273 411276 425278 436277 443275
      449272 456268 460262 462258 464256 470255 482260 487263
      489266 495273 500277 507277 512273 515267
 0.25 487233 488231 487228 485227 484226 482226 480225 479225
      477225 475224 474224 475225 477225 479226 479228 480229
      481231 481232 483234 484235 485235 486234 487233
 0.25 444118 443117 443118 444118
 0.25 454088 454087 454088 454088
 0.25 383136 383135 382135 383136 383136
 0.25 457086 456085 454086 456087 457086
 0.25 438899 437890 436880 437873 437868 436864 428851 421839
      417832 413827 404821 396819 389818 386818 383815 380809
      358817 351820 345825 335835 331839 326843 320844 316844
      311838 308837 304838 294845 289850 288854 288858 284869
      277884 272896 268911 267917 270922 274929 271934 267940
      265947 262953 265958 268959 272959 279959 284964 286967
      290966 295962 299958 316940 335921 345912 350908 355905
      363904 369901 375897 381895 394899 403906 429915 433912
      435909 438899
 0.25 428127 429122 427118 421115 416115 411113 403110 396107
      394104 394099 392096 389096 388097 387101 389105 389107
      387111 382114 375116 370116 367113 367109 366105 361100
      358098 355098 353097 352099 352102 353106 351108 346105
      343097 339089 336088 333088 329094 319108 319111 322112
      324113 331116 335125 338132 341138 345144 351148 356150
      359152 368156 374157 381158 384159 389158 395156 400151
      411140 417138 422138 426133 428127
 0.25 387093 387090 387086 384082 381080 376078 374078 371082
      371088 375090 378088 380087 383092 387093 387093
 0.50 510265 512260 512256 511249 506236 501223 498219 495216
      492215 486213 482213 480216 484220 489224 491231 491240
      487243 485245 484248 485253 489259 493263 498267 504269
      509267 510265
 0.50 479243 479241 479238 479236 478233 476231 475231 473232
      472234 470236 470237 470238 471241 471242 473244 474244
      474245 476245 478244 479243
 0.50 464224 464221 464220 463218 462218 461218 459219 458220
      457222 457224 458226 459227 459228 461228 461227 462226
      464224 464224
 0.50 456244 457238 454239 449240 441242 434244 429243 424238
      419232 416229 416224 415219 414216 406213 395203 367188
      361185 357185 356187 363191 370196 373202 375210 373214
      370216 362218 362223 363227 364233 368241 372247 375250
      376253 376261 383265 392267 399269 406269 413269 421269
      428269 431267 433263 443252 451250 456244
 0.50 423874 424869 422865 421858 416849 408837 404833 400830
      394829 390833 379836 372838 366838 363837 360835 359832
      359828 357823 353827 349829 344833 329852 325855 322857
      318856 314854 311851 309849 305849 298852 294855 292862
      290868 288872 283881 278894 277902 277908 277910 281911
      286909 290908 291914 289920 286927 277935 274940 272945
      274950 281950 285951 288952 288957 291960 296956 299952
      312937 321927 330919 345906 350902 356899 362897 367894
      377889 385886 390888 396892 402893 410893 419886 421878
      423874
 0.50 414127 413125 408121 404119 401117 396116 393119 391126
      392131 395135 399137 403135 406133 410132 414129 414127
 0.50 381147 376137 376131 375127 373125 369123 365119 361118
      356120 347112 344110 340111 340114 343119 345123 344131
      345137 350141 356141 362142 368144 372147 375148 381147
 0.50 343186 344180 344174 343169 339167 334166 329164 323163
      321163 320166 322170 326173 329176 332179 335182 338185
      342187 343186
 0.50 341098 341096 340095 339093 338092 337091 335092 335093
      333095 333097 332099 332101 332102 333103 334104 335104
      336103 337102 338101 339100 340100 341098
 0.50 320875 321872 320870 319870 318870 317871 316873 315875
      314877 316877 318877 319877 319876 320875
 1.00 499235 499232 499230 498229 497226 496226 495226 495228
      495231 496233 497234 498235 499235
 1.00 413250 413248 412247 411247 410247 409248 408248 408249
      410250 412250 413250
 1.00 411230 411228 411226 411223 411222 409222 407222 407224
      407226 407227 408229 408230 410231 411230
 1.00 402247 403243 404238 402232 398228 390227 384225 378226
      378231 382235 387239 392242 396246 402247
 1.00 400216 401213 400212 398211 398210 397209 396207 395207
      394206 392206 391206 390208 391211 393213 394214 396216
      398216 399216 400216
 1.00 388858 387853 384851 378850 368850 360849 352847 347844
      343844 341847 338856 329867 323883 315896 304907 300912
      299920 295927 288932 284937 281939 279941 279945 283945
      290942 301935 313924 325917 337907 347898 354892 360889
      380868 385863 388858
 1.00 309865 308861 306859 302859 299864 297870 294876 292881
      289887 291891 294889 294887 298882 302878 305872 308867
      309865
 1.50 368862 366858 363856 354852 347853 342860 338868 332876
      323889 313903 307909 304913 304918 306920 311920 319916
      325911 331906 345895 351890 356883 362877 366869 368862
 2.00 362865 360861 353859 349859 347860 343866 341871 336877
      332881 329887 321898 318903 316906 317911 321910 326905
      330902 337898 346890 350886 353879 356873 361869 362865
 3.00 340886 340885 338886 340887 340886

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 500295 501282 501273 500267 504256 505254 501253 497250
      493246 489239 484232 477225 470221 472216 475214 491208
      492203 491196 481196 472196 462199 458200 455200 453198
      451197 451193 452186 454173 454166 454162 451152 447145
      442138 437129 431116 433115 435117 439122 441125 447126
      456127 463121 468112 472103 473096 475091 475083 474078
      473072 471066 467060 464060 461063 446057 436056 432058
      432062 434066 433071 432084 431087 428089 427095 429101
      425104 417108 410106 413102 415101 415098 416094 414089
      413084 413080 414073 413068 411054 406049 402043 399039
      398032 400028 400023 403012 405006 408003 410001 413001
      419001 426999 435995 443990 449991 452991 453989 464990
      474994 479995 483000 485003 489005 498003 508991 511988
      513985 514977 516971 517960 517948 517933 517923 515915
      512902 510890 506880 503868 496845 492835 487826 479810
      470793 465787 464791 463797 469819 473831 475837 474841
      472839 461825 454817 451813 449809 434772 427752 423740
      420732 416727 411724 407720 403718 396712 393710 390710
      387712 383710 378711 373713 370715 351723 346725 343729
      338736 332743 330749 328754 328757 332764 334766 333769
      329772 326774 324775 324778 323784 324793 321799 318804
      313811 310815 306818 300818 296820 290826 287829 285833
      282842 279851 277862 275869 274879 274892 273898 272904
      271924 268947 263957 259967 257970 257975 259984 261986
      264986 271987 275987 278982 283974 292971 297968 304964
      308966 310969 315971 319971 323965 328958 330954 334949
      337937 341926 341920 342915 343903 344898 344891 344877
      344869 345864 346858 348855 354850
 0.01 354850 364845 371842 375840 378839 380841 384841 388843
      401858 404862 407866 403866 403869 399879 399883 400887
      408905 408910 407915 403908 399899 397894 394892 391890
      388892 385895 383900 383904 387913 389918 389922 393933
      394940 395948 395956 393965 392970 391975 387986 381004
      381010 380013 378015 374017 374021 375034 376039 379046
      380050 379053 376053 365051 359051 355053 352054 349052
      339049 331047 306042 303043 300046 298050 296056 295061
      292065 284067 277070 272073 271077 268090 269095 272100
      279115 282120 283125 282130 281134 279147 279151 282155
      285163 284168 283172 285175 289181 290186 293191 296200
      298209 299218 306224 322237 335249 343255 346258 350260
      362272 372280 376279 382281 393284 402285 413289 418290
      421289 440295 462300 473303 477304 479299 485298 490297
      496297 500295
 0.01 440745 439741 438738 435732 431728 427724 422721 420723
      421726 424732 427738 430745 433749 437751 439748 440745
 0.01 404100 403097 402097 401096 400097 400099 401100 402101
      404100
 0.25 477291 478277 481268 480262 478256 473249 464241 461237
      459232 456227 455223 457220 464214 464211 462208 459209
      457211 454213 450213 445213 441215 438218 434219 428216
      424212 421208 417205 410204 404201 397196 387190 382188
      382184 378180 376177 372168 373160 375156 383149 385143
      384138 382133 382129 384125 387121 391119 395118 396113
      387109 389106 389099 388086 386080 382076 376067 373064
      368062 359065 357071 358076 357081 355084 352083 346083
      341083 338080 329074 326068 331066 335064 339060 336056
      331053 326053 322056 318076 314080 310080 303079 298077
      292076 287076 283079 279084 300142 295143 292148 292154
      294159 303174 307184 313193 324209 338222 352233 364238
      373243 391256 400262 408267 414269 420270 429272 440273
      450273 468286 477291
 0.25 504957 505946 503937 501929 497921 490909 482911 479917
      477921 474921 469924 470932 472940 477943 486952 487962
      489970 493975 497975 499974 502968 504959 504957
 0.25 464915 464905 461895 457886 453877 449869 445865 442865
      442870 446880 447886 448891 448898 450903 454913 457917
      460918 464915
 0.25 432840 431831 430824 426808 424801 421797 414786 410782
      406779 400789 400797 402804 407815 413826 420837 423841
      428843 431842 432840
 0.25 418771 418764 416760 414755 411751 408749 403750 401753
      402758 404762 407766 410770 413772 415773 417772 418771
 0.25 392080 392077 390077 388079 389082 390082 391082 392080
 0.25 370111 369106 366102 363101 359101 356099 351098 348101
      348106 350110 353113 356117 361117 365115 369113 370111
 0.25 365762 365757 364755 360754 357757 355759 354762 353764
      352766 353771 355772 358770 360768 362767 363764 365762
 0.25 366793 366791 365789 364787 363787 362787 360787 358788
      357790 355792 355793 354795 354797 356799 358800 359799
      360799 361798 363797 364796 366793
 0.25 339832 339821 337812 333809 330811 324816 320823 317830
      313837 308843 306846 303846 299840 297838 293838 290840
      288843 286852 286862 290870 290879 286895 284904 283914
      283924 283934 279941 278952 279957 283957 287960 294958
      300952 308940 314934 318928 323913 326904 328896 332880
      336860 338847 339832
 0.25 323150 322146 319143 321142 324139 319137 314136 312137
      315142 313144 315148 318151 322151 323150
 0.50 448254 447248 445245 437240 432237 426236 419229 417224
      417219 414215 412214 408212 404208 398201 384192 369178
      362173 359171 355171 350170 346168 342164 338162 301148
      298150 297152 298156 301160 313174 317181 321189 326197
      332205 336212 342218 350225 358230 375239 393249 402254
      410257 416260 422261 431261 441259 448254
 0.50 379144 378116 367121 362120 358122 354117 350112 346107
      340091 338086 334081 327078 321082 317084 308085 299082
      294082 289086 289093 295109 296114 299121 304125 311129
      315130 319130 324127 328124 333132 338143 341146 344148
      353149 357146 359145 360147 361152 363155 368153 375150
      379144
 0.50 361199 360199 359197 359196 357196 356196 357198 358199
      360199 361199
 0.50 335060 335058 334056 333056 332055 330055 329055 328055
      327056 325057 325059 326061 328062 330062 332062 334061
      335060
 0.50 328833 328829 326828 323832 317842 313851 308855 304857
      300861 298866 294877 288902 287907 287914 288923 289929
      288941 288946 289948 295947 299945 302941 308932 314924
      318911 325887 327876 326869 325861 324846 326839 328835
      328833
 1.00 428250 428243 425239 416234 413229 413220 412218 408217
      405215 403213 397206 387199 379192 370183 365181 359179
      354181 352182 352186 356190 362193 371200 379207 388213
      399219 403223 403228 397230 392230 382224 373217 368212
      363209 355202 349194 346182 344169 340165 334163 324159
      312155 308154 305155 307160 314167 322175 330182 334193
      339203 346210 351214 355218 361222 367223 376228 384236
      393243 405249 417251 426252 428250
 1.00 373143 374141 375139 374136 372136 370138 370140 370142
      371144 373143 373143
 1.00 349137 349128 347119 345112 342105 338099 333094 327094
      320090 314088 306088 302087 299090 300095 301099 305113
      309119 313120 316118 320113 323111 327112 333116 336119
      337123 339130 343136 347138 349137
 1.00 330088 330086 330085 329085 329088 330089 330088
 1.00 313094 312092 311092 310094 309096 311098 312096 313095
      313094
 1.00 313903 314897 314890 313886 309882 304884 302886 297895
      294903 293913 295924 296935 299935 303931 307924 310913
      313905 313903
 1.50 410242 410241 410240 408238 407237 405236 403236 402235
      400235 398236 396238 397240 398241 399241 401242 402243
      404244 406244 407244 408243 410242 410242
 1.50 411226 412223 411222 409221 408222 408225 409226 410226
      411226
 1.50 400213 400212 398211 398210 397209 395208 393207 392207
      390208 391210 392211 393212 394213 396214 398215 400214
      400213
 1.50 390206 384200 379196 374191 369185 366183 361182 357183
      355184 356187 360189 367193 373197 378202 385206 390206
 1.50 348205 350202 349200 347194 344184 343171 341168 338169
      336167 327162 322160 316159 315164 319168 323170 329172
      335180 340189 342199 345204 348205
 1.50 341122 342118 341115 340112 339109 337107 335105 333106
      333109 335112 336114 338116 340119 341122 341122
 2.00 370190 369188 369187 368186 366185 365184 364184 363183
      361183 359184 358185 358186 360188 362189 363190 365190
      367191 369191 370190
 2.00 330168 331166 330166 329165 327164 325164 324163 323163
      322162 321162 321164 321165 323166 324167 325167 326168
      328169 330168 330168

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 569972 567960 564949 554937 551930 549925 546922 544920
      539920 535921 533915 525897 521894 517894 511903 503922
      499926 495928 493922 493914 491903 489898 489891 491881
      491876 489871 487866 484866 480867 477866 476863 475856
      473854 467846 468843 465839 460834 453825 443825 434823
      427826 424827 422829 417830 407835 397837 389840 384840
      380838 375832 373828 374823 378812 386799 389794 391789
      390775 393766 395761 397757 399745 400740 398735 393725
      392720 388719 380717 377716 374719 364731 353745 349736
      346733 343732 333730 328730 324732 319735 316739 312749
      309758 309769 309781 310788 309792 252826 247835 246838
      246844 246858 248871 248877 250881 251892 262907 265910
      266916 266927 266950 269957 270962 273966 280970 284972
      286976 287979 292979 301975 305975 310975 315974 319976
      330980 335987 338990 339994 343004 345013 345016 341019
      335021 326020 321020 317018 307013 302010 296016 292022
      289032 288038 288042 288049 288053 286056 283060 278062
      273063 269064 267068 268073 269077 272080 276087 279095
      281103 282112 284121 291126 307134 311133 316133 324130
      326128 331128 339134 346143 349145 355148 364152 367151
      372152 377153 380156 383154 388155 397157 404163 419171
      421174 424172 426172 428163 425153 423148 425141 426137
      429133 432133 434136 435138 434153 437161 441165 443166
      444171 443179 441181 443183 446184 448183 454176 456164
      456157 453152 450144 446140 444140 455142 458139 457137
      453133 449131 444125 443121 445119 450119 453116 452110
      451106 449102 446097 443094 435097 428091 428103
 0.01 428103 424105 420104 417102 411089 409087 411084 414075
      414069 412066 407060 396055 383049 378044 376041 375035
      374027 374021 373017 372010 373007 374002 375983 374975
      375965 376943 374935 372929 370920 374914 378909 383904
      387898 394892 398889 403886 414879 421875 426868 429862
      432865 433871 438884 437892 437904 436907 436913 433923
      429930 427938 426940 427943 429951 432968 433973 435975
      438976 440981 450991 455996 460998 465003 468009 472015
      474021 481027 486027 487036 486044 488052 491058 495065
      496069 495074 493078 495082 496089 497092 502099 504105
      509110 514116 517119 521125 529127 534128 537126 542127
      544125 547126 556122
 0.01 516280 511272 511261 511249 510246 509238 507227 504220
      501217 498216 496213 495207 497205 497200 495196 494191
      495185 495179 494173 489166 487161 483159 480162 479167
      483175 485180 486187 463205 460202 457205 450210 441209
      436206 431204 417195 412190 404184 388173 385173 382175
      378177 373176 365173 359167 356164 353164 349172 345175
      341176 336176 334173 332171 335170 341172 344172 345170
      343165 334164 329162 326160 310152 303150 299152 297154
      312166 319170 322172 326172 330171 332172 333175 333179
      330181 326185 324190 322194 323200 325209 330216 335222
      335227 334232 333237 333242 335252 335257 337260 345266
      349269 354271 365275 382281 391286 397291 415303 421305
      432308 439309 444310 447309 450299 455289 457294 458300
      457304 459309 461313 466316 477320 496328
 0.01 448736 448734 447731 446731 445731 443732 443733 443735
      443736 444737 445738 447738 448736
 0.01 418142 418138 417133 411131 405128 400130 394131 390135
      386139 386142 388143 391146 394146 401148 403146 407147
      412145 418142
 0.25 477238 478235 478234 476232 474233 473234 473236 473239
      475240 477239 477238
 0.25 465241 462233 456227 452224 447222 436219 428220 425220
      422218 415210 406206 393197 379185 371180 368178 363177
      354179 351181 349185 349190 346191 339194 338199 339205
      342213 345221 346231 344249 344253 346257 354262 363268
      374271 383273 392277 401282 409288 418292 426292 431291
      434288 440280 446257 448253 451248 454245 457243 463240
      465241
 0.25 479942 481937 480932 479922 479912 475909 472914 469918
      465922 462929 463935 465942 468947 472951 476946 479942
 0.25 401113 398112 396113 392114 390114 387116 385117 383119
      382122 384122 386121 388120 391119 394117 396116 398115
      401113
 0.25 374207 372204 369199 367196 363193 358192 352191 352195
      357198 360200 363202 368205 372207 374207
 0.25 385083 385077 381072 377067 373063 368061 363063 362065
      362068 365073 368079 370084 373089 378089 383085 385083
 0.25 368793 367785 363780 359773 354768 348767 341768 331771
      326777 313802 309807 302812 294815 286818 280821 276824
      271829 267835 264841 261849 261858 264866 268873 272877
      276878 278881 279889 281898 283905 286914 286921 285926
      283934 283940 286943 290943 297939 309933 317930 325927
      336920 342921 349924 352926 353930 355937 354943 350960
      348967 348971 349974 354977 357978 359982 361991 363000
      364005 367003 368994 369974 370954 369945 366935 364928
      361920 357914 354907 349903 342901 337897 335893 334891
      337882 343876 347871 350865 356851 363816 366804 368793
 0.25 348114 344104 343096 340091 337087 334081 329079 321077
      316075 314070 318066 324064 329063 334061 336058 334056
      330055 324057 320056 315052 309050 306051 306054 307061
      311066 311070 309072 283075 281076 281079 282084 287097
      288102 292105 300107 306105 311104 315103 318105 322109
      326110 328108 335115 343116 348114
 0.50 431273 433267 434262 435252 435249 434243 430236 409213
      398204 385194 374184 368180 364180 361183 358183 356186
      363190 368191 371195 375200 380206 383208 383213 379214
      373212 366208 353200 349201 348205 352213 361224 362232
      360242 363258 366260 370263 380265 389267 396271 403276
      412280 417280 423279 427279 429277 431273
 0.50 362803 360795 356786 352780 349778 345777 337780 331785
      322797 314809 308814 301817 285822 278826 273832 270837
      267845 266854 267860 268863 277873 281882 283891 285899
      289905 294905 298903 303897 308893 312887 323874 344855
      349850 352843 355835 358825 360814 362803
 0.50 366965 367958 366952 365947 361947 359951 357956 356960
      355965 356969 359973 362976 364979 366974 366967 366965
 0.50 342912 339908 335907 330908 326909 321911 317913 315915
      317920 321920 324919 330917 333915 337914 342912
 0.50 306089 306087 304085 302082 299081 296080 292080 290081
      289085 290087 291091 293094 294095 298096 301095 304093
      305091 306089
 1.00 422245 421240 418235 415232 414226 412221 408220 406227
      402230 392231 388234 387238 388243 392249 399255 404259
      407260 410259 413252 418250 421246 422245
 1.00 398210 397208 394205 392204 389201 387201 384198 380198
      380200 382202 385204 386206 390208 391209 395211 398210
 1.00 351831 352826 352822 350813 346797 344792 339790 333793
      329798 324808 320813 315817 305824 291827 284828 278832
      275836 274843 273851 275857 281869 283875 285883 287890
      289895 291897 294897 298893 306884 313875 317870 321866
      329857 338849 343846 347842 351831
 1.50 414238 412236 411236 409237 408237 408238 408239 410240
      412240 414239 414238
 1.50 338806 334805 331809 325818 319825 315828 309830 297831
      291832 285833 281836 278839 277845 278852 282861 284866
      286873 288884 290890 291892 295891 300885 305876 311853
      313849 317847 323844 327844 331843 334839 337834 337828
      336821 337816 338806
 2.00 304852 303848 301844 293839 290838 284839 282842 281846
      282851 283856 286859 287864 289874 290880 292885 296885
      298882 301873 302861 304852

$$





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