Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291846
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL TO
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TO NORTH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WILL ENHANCE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER NORTH AND NORTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT---INTO SOUTHEAST TX DURING SATURDAY.  THERE IS
BETTER SIGNAL IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
THAN WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER---THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS---ESPECIALLY HOW QUICKLY THE
CONVECTION PUSHES DOWNSTREAM AND AT WHAT AXIS THE MAX PRECIP
OCCURS.  WITH NOT A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS---DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
FARTHER NORTH AXES OF THE CMC GEM AND NAM CONEST AND THE FARTHER
SOUTH HI RES ARW AND 1200 UTC ECMWF---BUT DID TREND FASTER TO MOVE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM GIVEN THE MODEL BIAS TO BE TOO SLOW.    THE
1200 UTC ECMWF DID TREND MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCV WHICH IT MAY NOT HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IN ITS 0000 UTC
RUN.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST
DIRECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTH TO NORTH CENTRAL TX.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
LOWERING FFG VALUES---ADDITIONAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS
LIKELY---ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVY RAINS GET BACK INTO THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA HIT HARD IN LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY.

MID MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY---INTO THE OH VALLEY

THE MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY---LOWER MO AND LOWER OH
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND
GFS WITH HEAVY TOTALS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MO---AND
MORE TOWARD THE NAM WHICH WAS HEAVIER WITH THE TRAILING CONVECTION
INTO ARKANSAS.  THE 1200 UTC ECMWF TRENDED HEAVIER AND CLOSER TO
THE NAM/GFS HEAVY SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MO AS IT SEEMS
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MCV.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

A STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY---THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY.  FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS IN
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.  WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT TRAINING AND/OR BACK
BUILDING OF CONVECTION---WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THERE IS ALSO SPREAD WITH RESPECT
TO THE LATITUDE OF THE MAX QPF AXIS.  GIVEN THE SPREAD--THE IN
HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS USED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS

THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL B.C. DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIONS AHEAD OF THESE AREAS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY--SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE
TOTALS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 537213 536177 533163 529158 527153 522148 519141 517136
      514129 498122 485102 473080 469075 464072 455076 453078
      452081 449085 445086 442085 438091 436092 435090 431089
      429091 432102 435109 437114 440119 441122 442127 438134
      437142 437149 439156 442161 445165 444171 443175 441178
      436181 432186 429191 427197 424203 425208 428214 431217
      437216 443214 446208 450204 457196 460191 462188 462183
      464179 466179 468177 472176 477180 481184 491189 496193
      501199 504203 509208 513210 518210 520218 522222 526225
      531222 535218 537213
 0.01 518737 509690 509687 505683 501678 492669 486666 479663
      474661 468664 456678 453684 448692 441706 432721 423733
      419740 416747 413755 411758 409762 400772 394779 388784
      384786 382788 379790 378794 373801 370808 371813 374816
      380822 380827 379831 376840 373846 368851 348869 342873
      334877 327881 320885 297905 291910 289919 287927 285933
      267999 265010 267015 272033 285058 300064 306066 314065
      317063 320065 326070 330075 342076 347072 353067 361065
      368061 372059 376060 378064 379068 381076 384084 386086
      388084 390082 394080 403072 405069 405063 402053 398047
      393041 388035 383029 378023 375021 371022 366022 364020
      357015 352011 349005 340974 336954 336942 338938 341940
      347945 353949 360952 365953 369951 381941 390933 394933
      396936 393945 395950 396954 400956 403958 403964 403970
      405975 405987 408994 413987 419983 423977 428969 444943
      452929 459917 467903 475885 481870 485860 490853 494847
      498839 505826 509820 510815 508810 503793 503788 504784
      505776 506771 504768 505764 507759 510754 513747 518737
 0.01 337806 336804 331804 327807 322812 315815 313817 309816
      304814 298813 293809 281803 269800 263798 259798 256799
      252803 248808 246811 247816 251820 258830 267839 269841
      272841 277837 280831 286832 292834 296838 301853 303860
      304863 306865 310865 310861 309856 308854 307849 308845
      312839 320830 327820 337806
 0.25 529197 530194 530192 531189 530188 528186 527185 525184
      524184 523187 523188 525190 526193 528195 529196 529197
      529197
 0.25 497796 495774 494770 493764 491756 490750 491747 492739
      491729 488722 480708 479698 477691 473684 472682 469683
      462692 458698 455704 450718 447724 443730 436739 428749
      426754 425761 421769 418774 406780 394785 387790 383793
      381799 381804 382807 386808 389807 394804 398804 400806
      401812 400818 396831 394836 390842 383849 373857 363865
      345881 341885 337891 336894 334895 328897 317901 310904
      306908 299918 294933 286958 283972 280986 278993 275999
      273003 272008 274011 290031 294029 297022 298016 299009
      301992 302984 305981 308982 310984 312989 313996 311005
      313013 318017 324020 330023 339030 353033 357033 360032
      359028 357025 350016 344004 339991 336976 333960 330945
      330936 332932 338933 344936 354940 359943 366944 371941
      377938 387930 391924 395919 404910 412903 417900 421899
      424900 429904 430910 431915 432917 436921 442921 448918
      460889 467877 472866 478854 483842 488828 493814 496804
      497796
 0.25 479145 479140 479137 477134 476131 473129 469129 468132
      467135 467137 469140 471143 473145 476146 479145
 0.25 380047 381042 380040 378037 377035 374033 371031 368032
      366034 364036 365041 366043 369045 372046 374046 378047
      380047
 0.50 487773 487767 485765 481766 472776 465784 462787 461781
      461773 462768 466756 470743 470735 469732 465730 460735
      457739 450750 444760 439769 429789 425794 424796 424800
      419812 409836 404848 394850 376862 368867 363871 359876
      360881 366881 377877 384875 388876 388879 387885 384888
      379891 373893 363894 356895 349897 344899 342901 342904
      338908 332910 318912 313913 309918 305922 303926 299935
      296946 295955 297961 303969 310977 313984 315990 317001
      317006 320009 336021 341025 346026 352026 350022 344011
      341005 339999 336986 334975 329949 326937 326929 330928
      337930 341932 352936 363941 368940 372938 381932 384929
      387924 394914 400906 406895 414886 422880 425879 429880
      433883 436896 439905 441909 445906 451895 463873 469862
      473853 476846 476836 479825 487801 485784 487773
 0.50 295014 295008 293005 289002 286000 280000 277003 278009
      280013 281016 284020 287023 289024 292023 294018 295014
 1.00 467824 466820 464822 462824 461827 460830 458832 457837
      456840 458843 459841 461838 462835 464832 465829 466826
      467824
 1.00 443832 444827 443823 437822 432826 431831 431835 429843
      427848 422853 424856 427856 432854 436849 439844 442837
      443832
 1.00 422853 420852 418853 417856 419858 420856 420855 422853
 1.00 417860 419858 417857 416858 415860 415861 417861 417860
 1.00 396899 396894 394893 390893 387894 385896 382897 381900
      380903 379907 380909 382911 385911 387911 390908 392906
      394904 395901 396899
 1.00 375922 375918 372916 366914 359911 351910 344911 342914
      341919 343923 346925 353927 359931 364935 369936 372934
      375925 375922
 1.00 340017 341014 340011 338008 335999 333991 329984 328980
      327974 328968 327962 326952 323943 320936 315936 313939
      309946 305953 307960 310967 314975 317984 319987 320991
      322001 332012 336017 340017
 1.50 365923 364919 363916 361916 360916 359914 355914 352912
      350912 346912 346914 348916 350917 352919 355920 357921
      360923 362924 365923
 1.50 336008 335006 335004 334004 334001 333000 332999 332997
      331996 330996 328995 328994 328995 327997 327999 326001
      327003 328003 329005 330006 331007 332008 333009 334010
      336008
 1.50 321969 322960 321954 320945 317941 313943 310948 308954
      310960 312964 316970 315973 319975 321971 321969

$$





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