Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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130
FXUS04 KWBC 290620
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

..SOUTHEAST U.S. NWD ALONG THE MIDATLC INTO THE NE...
T.S. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EDGE NWWD AND JUST INLAND
ACRS SC BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING MORE NEWD BY MON MORNING AS A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SYSTEM REMAINS EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS
PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC TOWARD THE NE.  THE
APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN
NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE
PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.  BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THIS NORTHERN HEAVY RAIN
AXIS..WHILE THE LOWER RES NAM IS TO THE EAST AND WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN GENL.  MANUAL QPF STAYED CLOSE TO 12Z EC/UKMET BLEND
WITH AXIS..THOUGH WENT TOWARD THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
TROPICAL PWS OVER 2".  SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+ RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN
NJ.  MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE
MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S
CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS
ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.  ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU
NEW ENGLAND...THE INCREASING MSTR FLUX AND MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM UPSTATE NY/VT SWWD INTO WRN PA THOUGH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS ACRS THE MID
ATLC/SE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES...
SCTD SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION AS UPR TROF CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE REGION ON SUN.  MAINLY LIGHT
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING UPR FORCING AND
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET
STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON
SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD
ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP
AID CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AT START OF THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG AND EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX DURING AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACRS PARTS OF THE
REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT
ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY.  AS A RESULT..THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALONG WITH OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS USED TO USED TO
MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHILE MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONTINUITY GIVE THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
AND POTNL MCS DVLPMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS AND ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS.

...SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SEWD FROM SWRN CANADA INTO THE THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A PAC COLD FRONT ACRS THE
REGION WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED WITH GENLY LIGHT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 557955 557933 556909 555900 554888 554874 552863 551849
      550839 549825 547821 547815 545787 544782 542777 538769
      535763 533755 531732 529722 527715 521694 515675 510655
      508650 506646 501639 496631 492625 488623 483622 476625
      472630 467636 464642 455655 453658 452663 451672 451677
      450682 450687 448690 440705 437711 435713 432711 427698
      426695 423696 415698 407700 402704 396709 392711 389713
      383718 379720 375721 368720 360722 325725 296730 291734
      287741 286745 292750 301759 307763 312770 317775 320778
      322781 325784 323786 318791 315796 314802 316809 320814
      323820 329823 342828 347828 349831 351836 350841 350845
      352848 359848 366845 372840 377835 379838 377841 375846
      373853 371860 370864 370868 371878 372883 373885 377880
      381873 384864 391858 394853 401848 406843 409841 414840
      416838 420837 422838 422840 420843 413854 412859 415863
      425856 439850 447849 451848 452854 450862 448867 446871
      440875 433878 427882 425886 425890 425900 427907 431921
      435928 439932 441935 444936 453936 457935 460932 467933
      474937 477947 481952 484959 487966 492970 502975 513982
      512994 511003 511009 512013 516020 525021 527018 530018
      537014 540008 547991 550985 553974 557955
 0.01 534225 537209 538190 538186 537183 535178 529165 526160
      524155 520149 523144 525142 527136 527130 526125 525123
      518121 514118 510118 504116 500118 493125 490126 487125
      484123 482120 488107 490104 490100 491096 489094 488091
      489085 490082 491076 488070 484067 476061 472060 466060
      464065 463073 458088 455093 450096 445098 444091 432092
      428089 426089 426092 428097 427100 425101 421104 419108
      414110 412104 412095 410092 407092 400105 393105 388107
      382115 377119 373125 373127 377127 384128 388125 392122
      398122 402127 406126 411123 415123 417127 418131 417133
      413139 410140 406139 401136 392130 389130 383131 379135
      379139 381140 384141 386143 387148 386152 382156 385157
      387160 386169 390174 396176 401174 405171 408167 410164
      413165 419162 422157 423149 423140 425133 432121 436117
      438113 441106 443101 444104 449117 444123 442130 441134
      442140 445145 449148 450149 451154 451161 452166 451171
      452176 457173 462168 465164 468163 469166 471171 475174
      478173 481174 486178 487191 487199 484201 482201 474206
      470210 465211 455217 450221 449224 451225 456226 460228
      464225 470223 474222 478222 484223 489226 503246 505251
      508256 512263 515260 520258 523252 526247 527242 529240
      534225
 0.01 230011 236015 239018 244020 252023 262029 271032 283036
      288038 295039 304043 321049 343046 349042 357035 362031
      367028 374029 378033 378043 375045 369045 361047 356050
      358053 358056 361056 366054 371053 377054 381057 383063
      382066 378067 373064 369064 370067 373077 379085 385090
      389077 393080 398080 401074 403073 406075 413074 415072
      415067 420058 426050 429045 433042 436045 439045 441042
      443037 443031 440021 435017 433004 432999 432995 433993
      436997 439998 441996 443990 444982 442965 440954 437948
      435945 428940 421933 419930 417925 414911 412905 409903
      405903 404904 401910 400917 399924 399933 398938 398965
      401976 399981 397987 390987 386983 383978 384972 379970
      377965 372956 367950 361945 351942 347940 341941 328958
      325960 321964 320967 317968 312969 309968 306971 301977
      293982 283986 274989 268990 263993 260997 254996 246992
      239989 234989 231990
 0.01 392200 390194 385190 381186 375183 365180 358180 352181
      348183 345189 344196 347201 349198 348192 351188 354187
      358188 365190 370194 380200 387202 392200
 0.01 399793 396792 393792 391794 390797 388800 387802 385805
      382807 385808 389806 390805 392803 394801 396798 398795
      399793
 0.01 364856 364854 363852 363851 363852 362854 361854 360856
      358856 358857 356859 356861 355863 355866 357866 359866
      360865 361865 362863 362861 362858 364856 364856
 0.01 345180 345176 345169 343165 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 340177 341182 343183 345180 345180
 0.01 321084 312077 302068 299063 297061 294060 286060 283061
      279061 271060 268060 266062 262066 261074 269085 278092
      286094 294095 302095 309094 313092 317090 319087 321084
 0.01 308873 308867 307862 306856 304855 303852 302848 302841
      302837 299832 294824 292820 288816 274802 270800 265799
      259800 254802 250802 246804 244809 245817 251823 260828
      265829 270829 274827 280828 285827 290830 293832 297838
      298851 300855 302859 302863 304863 305868 305876 308873
 0.25 542912 542897 542879 541866 539850 537840 533827 530818
      527806 525802 522802 516811 515815 516823 518837 522864
      524876 524883 524889 522901 522909 524915 528923 531925
      536926 539925 541921 542912
 0.25 522192 521186 518183 515179 513176 509172 507172 505173
      505176 506180 509185 512189 515191 520194 522192
 0.25 509698 508685 505675 500668 495660 489653 486650 481647
      478648 475651 472653 470658 462671 461682 460693 457702
      450711 443717 437723 428725 421724 416726 413728 406733
      398739 390744 383747 372749 365751 362751 358750 351747
      343745 334745 328746 325749 323754 326758 332763 336768
      340775 340781 337784 331790 327797 325801 324807 325811
      328815 336819 343820 347820 352818 362805 369799 378794
      385789 391783 397778 403774 409769 414767 418766 417773
      414785 413790 411795 404799 401806 400812 401818 401824
      402826 406825 409821 415813 418803 422795 428787 431781
      434773 443757 446749 450744 454742 459740 462741 470744
      475750 480755 486760 489762 494761 496759 498755 501743
      504731 504719 509698
 0.25 476084 477082 477079 477078 475077 473078 471080 471081
      470082 469083 468085 469088 469090 471093 472092 473091
      474089 474088 476086 476084 476084
 0.25 462893 462891 462888 462886 461885 460883 459882 458883
      457884 456885 456886 455889 454890 454891 455894 455896
      456898 456899 458901 460899 460898 461896 461895 462893
 0.25 375994 375985 372978 370976 367976 364969 362966 360964
      354965 351963 347962 340965 335968 330973 324975 317979
      311983 308983 305985 300991 297998 295006 293010 290011
      282008 279006 275007 271011 270015 271018 278022 285024
      293025 296024 299022 303021 307021 311019 319008 324005
      329011 331017 332021 336022 339021 344021 350025 358025
      360024 363021 367014 371006 375994
 0.25 284003 285001 285999 284998 283997 282996 281995 280994
      279994 277993 275993 273994 271994 270995 270997 270999
      271001 273003 275004 276005 278005 280005 282005 284004
      284003
 0.25 270818 271814 269812 267809 264809 262807 260806 257805
      254805 253808 254812 255814 257815 260817 263818 264819
      268819 270818
 0.50 537896 537883 536869 535859 534854 532849 530847 528851
      528862 528875 529886 530899 530905 532910 534910 536907
      537896
 0.50 492710 492703 490697 487695 482696 479694 475694 473697
      472703 474718 473730 474735 478737 480741 484743 488744
      492744 494741 493733 492718 492710
 0.50 444737 443735 441732 439731 436730 435734 434737 433739
      433744 433749 433752 434754 435754 437751 438748 439745
      441743 442740 444737
 0.50 422742 422737 420731 418728 416729 409735 403740 392749
      385752 378753 377755 379757 382756 382760 379759 362756
      349751 342750 338751 335754 337758 339760 343766 348775
      348783 344788 337792 332796 328799 326803 326809 331815
      337817 343818 348816 357806 361798 364796 368795 372794
      376792 381788 388783 393777 405768 416757 420749 422742
 0.50 369996 371991 370985 364979 359975 351978 348978 346974
      341974 335975 332981 324984 317986 312994 312999 315002
      319001 322997 324997 326999 329008 333015 336017 341017
      344016 348017 352020 356021 361016 365007 369996
 0.50 262813 260812 259811 258811 257811 258813 258814 260814
      262814 262813
 1.00 414746 412741 407743 398751 382766 377767 372767 366768
      362773 352792 349796 347798 343798 340797 336800 332802
      330803 327804 327807 330813 335815 339815 345814 353805
      358797 361792 366788 378786 383783 387779 402763 409755
      412751 414746
 1.00 366994 363993 358993 351989 348989 346987 344984 339983
      335983 332986 330989 331995 333003 340005 349005 351008
      354009 360007 364000 366994
 1.00 357763 356761 355760 355759 353758 353757 351757 349756
      348757 346758 346759 346760 347761 348763 350764 352765
      354766 356765 357763
 1.50 407752 405750 401752 398754 395759 390765 382770 375775
      373778 374783 379782 383780 387773 390770 394768 400761
      406754 407752
 1.50 344809 344807 342807 340806 338806 336806 335807 333807
      332807 331806 329805 328807 328809 329811 330812 332813
      333813 335813 337814 339814 341813 342812 343812 344810
      344809
 2.00 404755 403754 401754 400756 402757 403755 404755
 2.00 402758 400756 398757 397758 397759 395761 397762 399761
      399760 400759 402758
 2.00 384772 382772 382773 380774 379775 379776 379778 379780
      381778 382777 383775 384773 384772
 2.00 334811 333810 332809 331808 330807 329807 329809 330810
      331811 332812 333812 334811

$$





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