Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

798
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.