Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230558
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 23/1200 UTC THRU JUL 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SLOW RETROGRESSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST IS AGREED TO BY THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.  A CHANNEL OF MOISTURE PREDOMINANTLY ALONG AND EAST OF
NE/SW ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WWD ACRS SRN AZ
TOWARD SE CA WITH THE SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE UPR RIDGE.  LARGE
SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK HERE, WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN AIDED BY TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.  MANUAL
QPF WAS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS 00Z WPC CONTINUITY.


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REMAINS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NE AND THE DAKOTAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MARCH EASTWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.  A NEW
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN, IA, WI, AND PERHAPS
NORTHERN IL, DRAWING 3000-5000 J/KG CAPES FROM UNDER A NEARBY
CAPPING INVERSION AS CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-50 KTS
INTERCEPTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INTO OR
ACROSS NORTHERN IL BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN
QPFS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS (FARTHER NORTH) AND
HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE (WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH).  THE
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS MODERATELY SEPARATED FROM THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL, OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER TRENDS TO
THE SOUTH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT.
 MANUAL QPF GENERALLY COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WRF NSSL, 00Z
ARW, AND 00Z NMMB SOLUTIONS, WITH ADJUSTMENTS EARLY ON BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.  A GREAT DEAL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL
FOR LOCAL 3-5" OF RAIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SOUTHWEST WI.
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR
MASS, WHICH COULD OCCUR IN SHORT TRAINING BANDS, CELL MERGERS, OR
WHEREVER MESOCYCLONES/WAVES ON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE LINES HOLD UP
FORWARD PROPAGATION.  FORWARD PROPAGATION SHOULD BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE, THOUGH WITH THIS SORT OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW AT PLAY, A SQUALL LINE/LINEARLY ORIENTED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AS RELATED COLD POOLS COULD SPEED UP MOVEMENT
CONSIDERABLY.  SEE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THIS REGION.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH SHOULD REACH A
MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  USED
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS HERE, WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.  THIS LED TO REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH
THE 00Z WPC QPF CYCLE.


SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
U.S.  ACROSS FL, THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST REGION.  KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
00Z WPC QPF WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 558034 558026 557020 556004 555997 555990 553986 555982
      558967 559963 558955 555944 553938 549935 547933 544928
      541916 538906 534897 522881 516873 510869 482854 473850
      468849 465848 453846 442848 424852 419854 416853 408849
      402848 399845 397840 395835 397825 399814 402804 404798
      402794 399786 397779 397764 397759 395754 399750 401746
      399740 396735 393732 392726 391718 390714 389712 385709
      381712 375720 372724 372728 371738 370749 366757 359761
      358767 358770 361770 366766 367771 369775 373778 374782
      373787 366793 354807 344823 340833 336837 334841 331845
      328843 322838 316832 311826 298814 285806 279802 281796
      278795 274793 272789 268786 263784 258784 253786 248788
      246791 244795 244801 240810 239815 240821 242825 246827
      252830 257831 260834 271847 280861 285868 285873 285880
      285887 284892 284907 284914 286918 289922 290928 284950
      279956 277960 277964 292966 307957 318947 325941 332934
      336931 339934 343937 349936 357932 362924 367901 383895
      385894 387897 388901 392908 396916 401927 402937 402944
      401947 398959 398965 399970 398977 394980 389982 386986
      380992 374001 363018 353031 347037 343043 339047 336049
      328053 325056 325059 332062 336061 341062 342065 340067
      336067 326063 322065 325068 330069 333072 328077 325080
      321082 313083 309081 306077 304074 300071 296067 292066
      286065 281063 277060 274056 269048 258038 255034 250031
      237030 234031 234034 232038 229047 228051 231056 231061
      232066 236073 242079 268100 282111
 0.01 282111 292118 304122 316129 318132 317137 317140 320143
      330149 335148 335144 335142 327131 323124 323120 325116
      330113 335117 341126 346131 351134 357138 359138 362135
      363124 363119 365115 369111 370102 367099 364097 366095
      369092 364089 359085 356079 355072 349070 346068 348066
      352067 357069 360072 367075 370080 374084 379087 382087
      383091 383096 381101 378105 378109 376113 374114 372117
      372123 379123 389119 400113 406109 405107 401104 391105
      388106 387103 392100 394098 394094 392091 393087 396087
      402083 405078 405073 407070 415062 415056 418053 424049
      431050 437052 442065 445058 449054 450044 449041 449035
      449017 422015 414014 410013 409011 411007 413004 418999
      426992 430988 435990 442993 448996 458004 468012 476020
      484031 488036 490047 492063 492074 490080 487078 484071
      483064 481060 479059 476061 474064 474067 475073 477075
      478090 472092 465092 466095 470096 478098 485100 490104
      489109 486111 487114 490116 499124 500133 498135 496134
      493140 494151 495156 498163 499168 500171 507176 515185
      521189 526188 529183 526175 516151 509121 525096 532085
      542076 549066 552061 554056 558034
 0.01 500230 499224 498222 495217 491212 484210 477209 474214
      473216 475218 480217 486219 491222 494228 497230 500230
 0.01 487671 485659 481651 478643 473637 469633 465632 462632
      454635 449641 441654 437661 434667 427681 423698 421716
      420720 421727 422732 423734 428739 432747 435755 439761
      442763 446763 450770 454776 458781 462783 465783 474781
      477780 480777 483771 484767 484761 481751 475735 473723
      472710 473699 476693 479688 483681 487671
 0.01 453100 454098 454095 453095 452093 452092 450090 448092
      448094 448095 449097 449100 450100 451100 453101 453100
 0.01 378762 378760 377759 376758 375757 374756 373755 371755
      370757 369757 368759 370761 372763 374765 376766 377764
      378762
 0.01 360749 357745 354743 350746 349750 341768 336776 332780
      328781 320786 313792 309795 306799 303802 301806 299811
      300813 304815 310814 313812 320811 327806 333804 336802
      343794 347787 352778 352773 347773 345771 346770 349765
      360750 360749
 0.25 538024 539012 539003 537982 539965 538955 536945 534928
      530921 524918 513917 507920 502919 493911 484902 470883
      468879 468876 471872 473869 473865 467861 462861 456859
      448859 441861 435863 429863 415867 410869 405873 402878
      400885 398893 399900 402907 406913 410918 415922 419926
      422931 426936 428943 429951 429962 429968 431970 435973
      444981 465994 476001 481004 485005 492006 497008 501013
      503022 505032 505042 502060 502065 503069 507073 514072
      519068 533048 536035 538024
 0.25 509952 508947 505943 499937 492934 484930 482931 482935
      481941 479952 477957 479961 485967 492972 496973 499972
      501966 503962 505957 507953 509952
 0.25 469674 467667 463662 458664 455670 454678 452684 452689
      454692 456698 458702 462700 465695 466687 468681 469674
 0.25 463750 462742 459737 458724 458717 458709 457705 454706
      451709 444718 442723 441730 440737 437739 438745 441750
      445753 447749 449747 452747 455749 460753 462752 463750
 0.25 400074 401072 399070 398071 397072 397073 397074 399074
      400074
 0.25 394011 395009 394007 394006 392006 391006 390007 389009
      388010 388011 387013 386015 386016 388018 390017 392016
      393013 394011
 0.25 371064 370062 368061 366061 364061 362061 361062 359062
      359063 357064 358067 360068 362067 364066 365065 366065
      368065 369065 371064 371064
 0.25 372028 372027 370026 368026 367028 366028 365030 366031
      368031 370032 371030 371029 372028
 0.25 360892 360885 358881 356877 352875 343878 334882 329889
      325896 326902 328905 337908 344907 351902 358896 360892
 0.25 349842 349840 348839 347840 347842 348843 349842
 0.25 340091 341089 342087 341085 339084 337084 335084 334084
      332086 332087 331088 331090 333091 335092 336093 337093
      338094 339093 340092 340091
 0.25 315116 308108 305097 291081 280077 271072 264064 265058
      263055 262051 260050 255051 252048 249042 246040 243039
      241041 241048 242054 243059 243067 249075 258081 265088
      281101 290108 302111 315116
 0.25 278819 278814 276810 273803 272799 270796 264798 257799
      250800 248802 247806 247813 250816 253818 259820 266823
      269823 274823 278819
 0.50 532016 533006 532999 531992 528986 525983 520981 514981
      509982 506987 508992 514001 518014 520028 518034 517043
      519045 522044 526042 529038 530031 532016
 0.50 480987 469959 466951 466946 467939 468931 467920 466912
      463905 461896 458890 454884 450879 444875 439873 433871
      427871 420873 414876 409880 406886 404896 405901 407908
      412914 417917 421921 428933 431942 433949 435956 438964
      441971 445975 450978 455981 462984 467987 470991 474992
      478989 480987
 0.50 453723 453720 452718 451718 450718 448718 448719 447722
      447723 447724 447727 447729 448730 449731 450733 451731
      451730 452728 452725 452724 453723
 0.50 353894 354892 354890 352889 351889 349889 347890 345892
      344893 344894 343895 344896 344897 346899 347898 349898
      350897 351896 353895 353894
 0.50 301105 301101 298097 294095 291092 290087 288085 279081
      272077 265072 263076 264081 266085 269088 276093 283097
      290102 299106 301105
 0.50 274818 273812 271809 269806 265803 261802 256802 252804
      251807 252810 255813 258815 262817 266818 270819 274818
 1.00 452962 452953 453940 453926 452913 450904 446894 442888
      436883 428881 421881 415887 412896 413902 415906 419912
      424919 428926 433934 436942 437946 440949 445954 450960
      452962
 1.00 263808 261807 259808 258808 259809 261809 263809 263808
 1.50 445935 445923 443911 440899 435892 429887 423887 420889
      417893 417900 421909 426918 430926 435934 442938 445935
 2.00 439926 438916 437909 435902 432897 430895 427893 423893
      421895 420898 420901 422907 426914 429919 431924 435929
      439926
 3.00 429907 429906 429907 429908 429907

$$





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