Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 281827
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/0000 UTC THRU APR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MO---MID MS---OH VALLEYS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT STILL ON TAP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO---MID MS AND OH VALLEY
REGION DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN.  THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX VALUES---4 TO 5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
ARE FOCUSED INTO THE BOUNDARY.  INITIALLY---CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WHERE THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX IS FOCUSED.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP FARTHER WESTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING TROF HELPS
TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FARTHER TO THE WEST. TRAINING
OF CELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GIVEN
THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW---ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES---ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE FRONT---CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT.  THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SOME OF THE SHORT TERM DETAILS GIVEN THE
WIDE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS.  WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FARTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS OF THE ARW---ECMWF AND GFS RE-FORECAST.  A BROAD
AREAL AVERAGE 2"+ AREA DEPICTED FROM EASTERN OK---NW AR---CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN MO---SOUTHERN IL---SOUTHERN IN INTO FAR NORTHERN KY.
IN THIS AREA---MAX AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST OK---NW AR INTO
SOUTHERN MO WHERE AREAL AVERAGE 5"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED
MAX AMOUNTS OF 7-9" WHERE TRAINING MAXIMIZES.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD QUICKLY IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND STRENGTHENING
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS AND HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS.  HEAVIEST
DAY 1 SNOW EXPECTED FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO---WESTERN
KS---THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE---FAR NW TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
NORTHEAST NM.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO B.C WILL STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW/PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE NW LATE DAY 1.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD OVER COASTAL WA STATE INTO THE
NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY MODERATE TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY 1---WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 487340 492332 498321 508300 513290 516277 523248 530223
      532206 531200 527195 501167 493163 488162 484162 480162
      474164 472168 475170 482176 484181 485187 490196 492200
      490202 487203 478203 474206 473212 479221 479228 476232
      471239 471243 469247 461254 455260 448266 446278 446285
      445292 442309 446315 452317 455316 463310 467319 475323
      477324 477327 476335
 0.01 541179 540167 538162 536160 533155 530151 525144 519140
      514138 509136 490130 485128 482125 479123 476120 473107
      472102 469099 466095 461094 456095 453093 447090 444087
      440082 440078 441077 444073 445068 445064 442060 429049
      423044 420041 419037 421034 422022 422014 424008 424980
      425971 426963 428951 432925 434897 435883 436873 437860
      436852 435848 430825 424801 426790 428780 432759 432751
      431744 431737 434732 438728 443725 450716 453706 455698
      457686 458674 457667 455661 450654 444649 442647 437647
      432650 426651 423653 421658 412675 407684 402692 399697
      398703 397709 395717 398740 397743 395745 391746 388750
      388757 388781 383787 375793 369799 362807 354813 350817
      347822 340829 335834 330841 327845 325851 325854 327857
      337856 352848 357845 359849 358852 356863 351881 347903
      343907 336908 330908 324910 312911 303913 301912 298915
      291920 288924 287928 285937 282946 282949 284952 293953
      305952 300958 293964 296973 300980 302983 307985 312986
      318987 321987 322990 324995 326000 325004 327009 330008
      335012 337017 338027 336031 333033 329042 322046 316052
      312059 303076 303079 301082 300089 306095 312101 318099
      320095 323093 328092 332090 337092 342099 343102 345103
      349101 353093 354087 356084 357081 360081 365081 369080
      372081 373083 375087 378087 388088 390085 391078 396077
      401076 410073 415074 418079 423088 426097 423100 421105
      417107 415102 413097 412094 409093 406093 405095 403100
      399107 392110 387110 383112 377118 375121 373125 375128
      380129 388125 395121 406121 416119 422119 425114 434111
      441113 447114 449114 451117 456118 458121 462125 464129
      470137 472141 475140
 0.01 475140 483142 490146 496149 498152 502153 504156 509157
      511156 513160 518166 522172 526178 530184 538187 541179
 0.25 512274 515267 516259 516251 514245 511236 504226 498219
      495217 493218 492222 492235 489239 485241 478246 473257
      468266 466271 466275 467277 470281 473283 478282 481284
      481288 481293 480301 480307 482312 487315 491315 498310
      504302 509291 511280 512274
 0.25 498250 498249 497247 496244 495242 494241 494240 493240
      493243 493244 494246 494247 496248 496249 497250 498250
 0.25 420782 419759 417755 414752 412755 411760 410770 406779
      397793 394800 390808 380818 376826 373835 370846 367853
      364871 363876 363881 361889 357899 353906 348912 342917
      336921 334924 333928 333940 332945 330948 324952 316955
      308959 305966 304972 306973 315975 324977 327979 329982
      330985 330991 330997 331003 333006 337007 341010 344013
      346021 345027 343031 335043 333050 334056 335059 338062
      343068 347070 350070 364065 380067 387064 394063 402060
      406058 407051 403034 406015 409003 412996 415984 417973
      417962 416949 418938 421930 423918 424907 425895 425883
      425872 424861 421851 419842 417836 417830 417819 417808
      420797 420782
 0.50 512268 513262 513255 512247 509240 505234 500227 497224
      494228 494233 496237 500244 503252 506260 510267 512268
 0.50 505292 507284 508280 508275 506269 504264 500260 497255
      495251 491247 487246 483250 482258 483265 487276 488288
      489302 492305 496304 503296 505292
 0.50 418872 417863 415856 412848 411840 408800 406796 406792
      402795 398800 394806 391812 386818 382823 378830 374843
      370857 366871 362889 358903 350913 340921 338924 336928
      337939 337943 333949 327953 322956 316959 312964 312967
      314970 323971 328972 332977 334980 334985 333994 335999
      338001 345004 349010 351015 350023 348031 345038 341042
      339046 340050 344056 348060 353061 357061 363059 368056
      375054 382054 390054 396055 401053 400044 398037 398028
      401013 403003 404991 405980 406973 407964 407955 407946
      409940 412931 413923 415905 416887 418872
 1.00 504278 502273 501269 499264 497260 494256 491255 491260
      491266 492273 493277 496283 498284 501282 504278
 1.00 407875 408867 406859 403846 399830 396825 392823 389823
      387824 383829 381834 379839 372867 365891 361901 355912
      349921 344932 340944 337949 332954 324959 321962 321966
      322967 331967 337969 339975 339981 338987 339991 341992
      346994 352994 356996 358998 357008 356025 353036 351040
      351044 356047 362046 369047 380044 384041 386035 389021
      391003 391995 389990 385986 380984 375982 375977 380965
      385960 388954 391943 395932 400920 401913 403903 405889
      407875
 1.50 400883 401871 399860 395837 391831 388829 386830 382838
      379848 376865 370884 365899 360907 356914 343946 338952
      332956 329959 328961 332964 337965 340966 342969 342980
      343985 346989 350990 355989 361987 364977 368970 373963
      380949 388934 394917 396908 398897 400883
 1.50 385015 386010 386004 385995 383992 378991 371994 365998
      364001 363005 363016 362027 362032 366034 373035 377031
      381023 385015 385015
 2.00 397874 393857 390850 389844 386840 385841 383849 382860
      383866 381870 374883 367898 361910 356915 353923 351931
      348939 345946 340952 335956 332958 331961 339963 344964
      345967 346977 349984 351985 354983 359977 375953 381939
      387924 390916 392907 395888 397874
 3.00 391892 389888 386889 382891 377893 373896 371900 366907
      360915 356925 353935 348945 344952 337958 340960 345961
      348964 350969 351972 353973 357970 363963 368956 373946
      377938 382927 387906 391892
 4.00 387897 386894 383895 377900 372904 367909 363916 360923
      355938 352945 347952 346958 353963 356965 359963 364958
      369952 372945 379931 382913 387897
 5.00 383900 380900 374904 368912 365918 362924 359936 354947
      351953 350958 355961 361959 368951 374940 376934 378927
      378918 380912 383900
 6.00 375929 375918 374912 372909 368918 365927 361936 358945
      354954 355959 359958 366952 370945 374936 375929
 7.00 370941 371936 371932 368931 366932 364935 363938 362941
      361943 359947 358949 358954 361954 363953 364951 366949
      368946 369943 370941

$$





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