Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231021
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
519 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 23/1200 UTC THRU FEB 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK---EAST NORTHEAST INTO PORTION OF THE
LOWER TN---LOWER MS VALLEYS AND ACROSS ALL OF THE OH VALLEY

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD FROM NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK---ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS---SOUTHERN MO AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY.  THE CURRENT TRAINING PRECIPITATION FROM SW TO
NORTHEASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  HOWEVER---THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THEN
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO FOCUS FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST---INITIALLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK AS
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES ACROSS THIS AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO THEN SHIFT DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN OVERALL
VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS WITH AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---2 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD DAY
1 ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE ARE SOME TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS---WITH WPC LEANING
TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES ARW--NSSL
WRF---HREF MEAN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST
OK---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR INTO THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK---WITH A MODERATE RISK CONTINUED FROM NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN TN.  A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
WHERE PRECIP TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS BUT FFG VALUES ARE
STILL LOW.

GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND

RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A FAIRLY FAST MOVING AREA OF WELL DEFINED ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW---SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
 AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.P. OF MI AND FAR NORTHERN
MAINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1.  BELOW AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
KEEP PRECIP TOTALS IN THE BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST AK---WESTERN B.C. AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA--SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN WA-OREGON TO THE WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ABOVE AVERAGE
PW SOURCE---KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TOTALS IN THE MODERATE
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FROM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON
CASCADES WEST TO COAST RANGES.

ORAVEC


DAYS 2/3...


...ARKLATEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

***SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY***

A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z
SATURDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS AND HOT SPRINGS AR...TO EVANSVILLE IN...TO COLUMBUS
OH...TO PITTSBURGH PA. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THAT FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD...AND A SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.

CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT FLOODING EVENT
ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE COUNTRY AS HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY
TO PASS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE PAST WEEK (LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER)...AND ARE LIKELY TO
RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS HYDROLOGICALLY PRIMED AN EXTENSIVE REGION
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THIS ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE. PWATS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN
MUCH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE DRIVEN NORTH BY A MODEL-FORECAST 60-70 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ...AND GLOBAL MODELS WERE GENERALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE LLJ. THE
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ALSO BE FOCUSED BY VERY FAVORABLE JET
COUPLING...WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL JETS
ALSO SUPERIMPOSED ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. SOME HI-RES MODELS THAT
EXTEND OUT TO 25/00Z ARE PLACING THE AXIS OF HEAVY QPF FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE INFLOW REGION...POSSIBLY AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 24-HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL BE
CORRECT WITH THEIR PLACEMENT. WPC QPF WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD A BLEND
OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND OUR IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS
CORRECTED MODEL.

RAIN RATES WITH THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO BE
HEAVIER THAN SOME OF THE RECENT EVENTS OVER THE PAST WEEK.
DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE ACCESS TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR)...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG FROM EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE...AND MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A MAJORITY OF THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED BELOW THE -15C TO -20C
LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ICE MAY BE LIMITED IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
TIME PERIOD...AS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH A TRAINING BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS MAY HAVE
ONLY A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR. THAT BEING
SAID...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH...AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY THEY COULD REACH 2 IN/HR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST WEEK...SUCH RAINFALL RATES WOULD BE
VERY LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH...WV...AND PA...RAIN RATES MAY
BE LOWER AS INSTABILITY WANES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THEREFORE...EVEN RATES
APPROACHING THE 0.8 TO 1.0 IN/HR RANGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH-IMPACT AND SEVERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT IF CONVECTION CAN TRAIN OVER INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A REGION OF ELEVATED CONCERN WILL BE
FROM THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION OF SRN IL...WRN KY...AND SRN IN. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALL RECEIVED AT LEAST 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST
WEEK...AND OVER 6 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THEY ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
MUCH RECOVERY OF THE NEAR-SURFACE SOIL LAYERS AND KEEP RIVERS AND
DRAINAGES ELEVATED. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A HIGH RISK
UPGRADE ON FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS
HAS CONTINUED THE TREND FOR THAT MODEL OF LIMITING QPF MARKEDLY
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. GIVEN THE LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE PREFERENCE IS TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE FORECAST LEANED MORE CLOSELY
TO THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAM.


...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...

AS A SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY...A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
QPF WAS TRENDED DOWN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NON-GFS GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE LIGHTER WITH QPF.
SOMETHING THAT MAY LIMIT QPF IN THE SNOWY REGION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE THE CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
INTERCEPTING SOME OF THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FLUX...AS WELL AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM NRN MO INTO ERN IA...NRN IL...AND SRN/ERN WI. HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...REFER TO THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT SUITE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS QUITE GOOD IN THIS REGION...AND THE QPF FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS WAS RELATIVELY SIMILAR. A BROAD-BASED MODEL
BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR QPF IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD OVER THIS REGION.
THE HEAVIEST QPF LOOKS LIKELY TO BE IN THE CASCADES...AS WELL AS
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO. HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...REFER TO THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCT SUITE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ORAVEC/LAMERS


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML




THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 481616 488621 492625 500647 509674 512684 515696 513702
      515709 520719 523725 523731 523739 522745 521771 519795
      516818 512840 510846 510851 507864 506870 503875 500888
      494910 491924 487935 484938 481942 477944 473942 468935
      465932 464927 463922 462918 458910 454901 449894 438880
      431872 428869 425868 422868 418867 415867 414870 413881
      413891 410903 405926 398952 397956 397963 396972 398975
      400976 403976 414976 419977 423979 429986 430001 431006
      431015 432019 431024 430032 429035 427035 423037 417037
      412037 409041 408049 409055 413055 416052 421046 426047
      429053 434059 435068 434075 432078 427086 430092 434095
      443096 444098 446097 450095 453098 455104 460105 464103
      466102 469108 469114 467117 460113 453120 449121 444121
      441120 437122 432126 424129 420124 415123 412125 408128
      406133 405136 405140 405147 406159 404172 401179 399183
      395192 391197 389195 386192 385187 384182 387177 391166
      393154 376146 370141 363137 357136 353137 348136 345133
      342129 339121 336117 335112 332110 328109 321108 318106
      317102 326100 336084 339084 341082 343078 348078 352075
      356067 359062 364062 379060 379058 376056 373056 370057
      365056 360058 357055 359051 364050 368049 374050 378049
      381051 383053 385051 387047 388042 390041 393040 393037
      389036 382029 377018 375013 374007 374001 373994 373989
      373985 370985 358994 349996 346998 344004 329014 325015
      321016 310018 304017 300015 298015 295016 292018 285024
      282024 279026 276026 271023 266023 263021 261016 261010
      263006 269000 279989 282985 282982 281978 281968 285959
      286949 288937 290932 289928 286927 279921 274913 269905
      267900 269896 272892 276891 287890 294887 301882 310878
      318875
 0.01 318875 321874 324872 330867 333865 334862 336858 336854
      326864 320866 316866 315862 311856 312849 327844 332839
      338836 344829 346828 349824 358815 362809 367804 378795
      383790 388783 386779 383778 379771 378768 377763 376751
      376743 375731 373728 372722 370711 370707 373705 378700
      381697 383694 387689 389686 393683 394674 393668 393665
      397658 404642
 0.01 538202 537194 535185 531178 525171 505148 499143 494138
      480128 473125 471125 470131 469134 470140 478142 491150
      495152 498155 502157 504159 504162 501161 491159 477151
      472147 465142 463140 460141 455149 448150 439149 436152
      435157 436161 438163 447175 448177 446179 442180 440183
      442187 447193 450196 454195 464184 468181 477183 483187
      486192 484196 471202 468205 464205 461205 459207 454211
      447214 441215 434218 426220 424223 426228 425231 422232
      415233 413241 417247 422253 430254 446254 453255 462257
      467261 471263 474267 479273 484279 495291 502297 507294
      511288 515278 521259 527241 534217 538202
 0.01 437102 434100 431097 427094 424091 421093 417095 415101
      420104 423103 428103 432106 435105 437102
 0.01 379114 380112 378110 378108 377105 375105 373107 373109
      373111 374113 375114 376116 378116 379114
 0.01 353108 353106 353104 354102 354100 352097 351097 349099
      347101 347103 348105 348108 350109 351110 353108
 0.01 312813 308812 306808 298804 290800 283798 280800 277799
      274797 264794 257797 248802 243808 238809 236814 239824
      243825 247824 249820 250815 253811 256808 259807 262811
      264815 268817 270814 270807 274807 280809 283810 286814
      294820 302821 310816 312813
 0.25 530210 531208 531205 531203 531200 530198 530197 529194
      528194 526195 526196 524197 522196 521196 520196 520199
      520201 521202 522203 523205 523206 524208 525209 526210
      527211 529211 530210
 0.25 517267 517259 516249 515241 513232 510227 506221 501215
      497211 491207 487206 483206 472210 462215 456216 450219
      445220 441221 444224 451225 453223 456224 466230 454233
      449234 443237 437240 440242 469248 474252 479257 488269
      496279 501284 505284 508283 513276 517267
 0.25 515192 515190 514188 512187 511186 509185 508185 507186
      507187 507188 507190 507193 508194 509195 511196 513195
      513194 515193 515192
 0.25 503715 502709 501705 499701 495700 482710 472721 473726
      475729 479735 476742 478753 482762 486769 488777 485784
      480803 477810 474813 471815 464817 458823 457826 456832
      456838 457845 458850 461854 467858 469859 472858 476856
      479859 484864 488866 492864 497859 500851 503840 503829
      501819 500812 500805 500795 499783 500762 496743 495733
      496728 497726 501721 503715
 0.25 489231 489226 484224 479222 476223 474222 470224 468227
      471230 476230 480230 482234 485235 488233 489231
 0.25 488721 488719 487717 486716 484715 482715 482716 481718
      482720 483722 483723 485725 486725 487724 488722 488721
 0.25 441747 441740 441734 439731 435731 433733 430741 428744
      427749 425756 423765 422770 424770 429765 436762 438759
      440755 441747
 0.25 420797 419792 417790 413786 413781 414776 415773 413767
      407766 405764 404766 402771 396784 394789 390796 386801
      384811 380828 378835 374842 371844 369842 363840 359841
      357844 353850 345864 344867 344873 341879 333888 327893
      320896 313897 307896 297896 292897 290899 287904 288908
      291909 298913 303918 308921 311922 315923 319924 322926
      326932 327939 324945 317958 310969 305976 301982 298987
      304987 306988 308992 313998 320000 325001 329000 335996
      339991 346978 350972 355969 361964 364959 375948 379943
      384939 389935 393928 396919 397910 398900 398890 398880
      398871 400863 404855 407847 409839 413821 417809 420797
 0.25 377078 377076 377073 376071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      373068 373069 374071 374073 374075 375078 375080 376080
      377078 377078
 0.50 514269 515264 514261 512253 507240 501227 498221 494217
      489212 482209 476211 472214 470215 469219 475219 488221
      501243 503249 502255 501257 496254 493247 489242 482244
      480237 478233 476232 472234 467235 463235 463239 466241
      470242 475245 481249 484250 485254 487260 491265 496270
      500276 505280 509273 514269
 0.50 464221 464220 463219 461219 459219 457219 455220 455221
      457223 458224 460224 462224 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 460238 460237 458236 457236 455236 453236 451237 450237
      449239 451240 452240 454240 456240 458239 460238 460238
 0.50 404799 404792 401790 393796 390800 388804 385818 380841
      378847 377851 371862 367870 361879 352886 348887 347889
      346893 346899 345904 340914 331934 328944 327952 325957
      315975 314981 315989 317992 324993 333990 337987 340982
      344974 348969 351966 364952 377936 383928 386923 388918
      390905 392891 390884 390879 393867 396856 397849 399844
      399836 400832 402825 404818 402812 403806 404799
 0.50 313909 311908 311907 310907 308907 306907 305907 305909
      306910 308911 310910 312910 313909
 1.00 385870 383863 382861 380864 371873 367878 364885 356894
      349905 342917 336929 331943 331952 329960 327967 323973
      321978 321983 322985 329984 335980 339975 342969 346964
      350960 359950 366940 373928 378916 380909 380903 378901
      374898 374894 376889 381880 385870
 1.00 367894 368891 367890 366892 365894 364896 365898 366896
      367894 367894
 1.00 364901 365898 364898 363898 364901 364901
 1.50 366925 367919 366916 358921 350924 350921 351915 351911
      347912 342919 337927 334936 333940 333944 335945 337948
      337952 332960 329969 326977 325980 328980 332978 337971
      341963 347958 353952 357945 363937 366925
 2.00 336967 337965 337962 337960 336960 335960 334962 333962
      333965 332967 332969 334970 334969 335967 336967

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 542195 532184 526174 522167 518164 511162 506165 500162
      496160 494157 492155 491152 493150 495150 495145 492138
      488133 484129 476127 473126 470123 467122 466117 469115
      469112 470107 469105 455103 453097 452094 448093 442095
      434095 430091 427091 426095 426101 423103 418105 414105
      412103 408098 406098 405102 403105 398105 397108 394109
      389112 384114 379118 377122 375125 374132 387135 387139
      387144 389150 389159 389164 386168 387173 389176 392177
      397178 399177 401177 402180 403184 401192 402197 403202
      402206 402211 404213 410209 411216 408224 402230 396231
      393235 392239 393241 398246 405256 411261 414262 417262
      424263 427262 430263 438265 445268 455276 461281 464280
      468283 474293 480306 484312 486319 490328 493336
 0.01 348674 352693 354696 354699 354704 352713 348727 346734
      343740 339746 337754 335761 334768 340765 345761 353752
      360738 364732 367729 372728 375729 377733 378740 380745
      380749 378757 377763 377771 373785 370793 368796 365799
      361804 358810 353816 347820 344827 342836 339843 334847
      330852 326857 320861 315861 311860 300854 295857 293860
      293863 291866 292870 294874 295879 294885 292891 289898
      286908 277933 273949 267962 264968 262976 259980 254984
      248987 242991 237997 238002 241010 242016 253020 261020
      265020 267022 272023 275020 277017 281012 287008 295000
      303002 311003 322004 330003 344002 357997 371993 375993
      377995 382000 384006 383013 385021 389025 394032 400035
      402037 406035 412032 426028 432026 438026 452022 456016
      460008 461006 462001 463997 466996 469990 472985 476979
      482975 486975 489970 493964 497959 502953 509942 514936
      517931 517921 515910 515899 513891 509877 506866 503860
      499850 495842 492835 489828 482816 475804 468789 465782
      462775 455764 450757 447749 439732 436726 432721 424709
      420702 416698 404694 397693 393689 390684 390679 388677
      387673 382667 378666 375664 372665 368664 366662
 0.01 482198 482193 481191 477185 470183 465187 462191 459195
      457198 456201 458204 461204 466203 472202 477201 482198
 0.01 410138 411134 408131 405131 403133 399132 396133 394134
      392137 395140 399138 400139 402139 406141 408140 410138
 0.01 413073 412067 412063 409058 402056 391061 385062 384063
      382067 379069 376068 373063 366063 368066 372077 375083
      380087 382092 386090 390086 395083 406080 413073
 0.01 395210 396205 392202 389199 384198 381195 378192 374193
      375196 377198 380201 383205 388206 391209 395210
 0.01 283785 282775 282771 280769 275765 270763 252747 250742
      248739 242739 240739 237741 234742 232744 232755 237767
      239770 239775 240784 237789 238793 236796 236800 235804
      230808 231824 233843 234844 238844 241843 243841 248836
      250834 250830 250825 252823 254820 257822 261825 267829
      270826 278824 276803 277798 279795 281794 283785
 0.25 524261 510241 498218 495212 491209 486207 479207 469210
      460214 447213 437214 431216 426218 425220 424225 425232
      423237 423241 429243 441246 449247 453247 459247 464245
      471246 476247 481249 485255 490266 494272 497276 505285
      511295
 0.25 490234 491229 490227 487225 484223 481223 479223 476223
      474226 473228 475230 478231 481234 482235 486236 488236
      490234
 0.25 492894 492886 490879 487870 481863 478855 467839 463832
      460829 455830 453833 453842 453848 449850 444856 439863
      434872 430880 423898 417906 414915 415928 413933 409935
      405936 402942 402950 401955 401962 403970 406975 408981
      408992 409999 412003 415003 418001 432991 436985 437978
      440976 455966 459958 466952 469949 471945 476939 482931
      486924 489915 490907 490899 492894
 0.25 477164 477159 476156 473151 469146 465142 459143 455149
      452151 446153 439152 437153 436158 439163 444167 446172
      447179 443184 443188 446190 452191 455186 460183 463179
      462171 464168 466167 473166 477164
 0.25 446114 446111 446109 445108 444107 442107 440107 439107
      437106 436107 435107 433107 432109 433111 435112 436112
      438112 440112 441113 442113 443114 445115 446114
 0.25 436780 435766 433751 432747 430742 426737 416724 410721
      405723 397728 395731 393736 391754 387772 385780 381786
      378795 374804 370811 366817 356828 351835 348842 345850
      341858 333870 315893 310900 305907 298920 291935 285949
      283957 281968 280974 283974 288975 292973 295970 299964
      303960 309962 314969 315973 318977 321984 326989 332989
      335986 341982 346978 350973 355966 362961 369947 375942
      381938 385936 387933 391927 392922 394920 402917 404916
      406913 409905 411895 414887 416877 417868 422848 423837
      424832 426829 431824 434818 435813 436807 434794 433790
      434787 436780
 0.25 373699 372686 368684 365687 362690 361693 359705 357713
      354722 352733 354733 357730 361722 362713 366703 373699
 0.25 276980 277976 275974 272976 266980 264984 260990 257994
      255998 255000 258002 262998 266993 270989 273986 276980
 0.50 521268 520267 519265 518265 517263 516262 516261 514260
      513259 512257 511257 510256 509256 508257 507258 506261
      506263 507266 507267 508269 508270 509272 510275 511276
      512277 513278 515279 516280
 0.50 488218 488216 487214 485213 484212 482211 481212 479212
      477212 478215 479215 480216 482217 483217 485217 487218
      488218 488218
 0.50 480241 480239 479236 477234 476235 474237 475240 476241
      478242 480241 480241
 0.50 471221 473217 472213 470213 463216 459217 454216 445218
      438219 432224 431227 433229 438228 446226 450226 455226
      459227 463226 469223 471221
 0.50 483897 483887 480881 473881 468883 464885 462888 459885
      461880 462871 462862 463852 462842 459841 458844 450872
      448891 443904 440911 437915 431928 424938 422944 423952
      425955 427957 434958 440956 443952 448945 452942 460932
      465927 469925 476915 482906 483897
 0.50 425779 423770 420760 413746 410745 407747 403753 397766
      394773 391782 388789 386796 384803 381810 374822 368827
      362833 358838 354844 348855 340867 331880 324891 317902
      310914 306921 302928 298934 295939 290952 289958 292960
      296958 305943 309939 314935 319932 321938 319945 320952
      322960 324971 325979 329984 333982 338977 347967 355954
      359948 362941 378920 383913 389908 397897 404884 407878
      410870 414852 417835 422821 424812 425803 425779
 1.00 416795 416785 413777 410773 406773 400781 395793 392807
      388818 385824 382827 375836 371840 367846 362855 357866
      357870 354870 346879 340888 335885 331888 325898 322903
      320910 322912 324910 327906 332903 335902 339903 344912
      344919 342925 336934 334940 334949 333962 332967 333971
      338969 341966 344960 349949 355941 359936 362930 368922
      375912 380903 393885 399876 404864 408850 410838 413825
      415809 416795
 1.50 409791 407787 404788 402793 402797 401807 399812 397816
      393825 388831 384837 379845 376854 375864 372874 369882
      363889 360896 355914 353919 351924 346930 341937 340941
      340947 338959 339963 341959 348943 353936 359930 368917
      373909 376900 380894 385888 392881 396874 399866 402857
      407836 408826 408815 405808 405800 407794 409791
 2.00 404825 404821 401820 399825 396832 392837 389844 387852
      383866 380872 377877 374885 374887 378888 388879 395869
      397861 399853 403839 404825
 2.00 373900 373896 371895 367899 365905 362912 360916 357922
      353926 352930 355931 359927 360923 362921 366917 369912
      371907 373900

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 542195 536180 534175 530169 522158 517153 511149 505145
      501142 499139 496135 491131 484126 479124 473123 470122
      469118 468114 469108 470105 467103 464089 461087 459087
      456088 454091 449089 445089 442091 436093 430090 426086
      421086 423093 422097 420099 415101 411101 408098 408096
      406097 405102 402106 397106 396110 394112 392114 395115
      403117 406124 411129 413138 409146 404151 403158 407171
      409180 408192 402197 400198 395197 385200 386208 391212
      394214 395218 393223 389224 386223 383225 378230 377239
      378245 380254 382262 387275 390281 396286 398288 401289
      406289 411290 414289 419286 422284 423281 425278 428278
      437280 441281 445284 449287 454293 459298 462306 463312
      466321 474334
 0.01 462623 473626 482628 486632 490638 498646 501650 506654
      509660 511665 517679 523691 528705 533720 538735 543747
      544749 548767 549774 550778 552792 552799 553802 555817
      556826 556834 557842 556846 556853 555857 555864 553870
      550874 549881 548884 548890 547898 542904 537909 531915
      525918 520925 515931 512939 510942 507942 505940 501940
      495940 490937 484932 480930 477930 469926 465920 458905
      454891 458873 456863 455858 451858 445857 444848 445844
      444841 441835 435831 434824 432819 429817 426815 422816
      419818 415819 404820 400821 397823 391828 380838 375843
      371849 368854 366861 361874 356888 349902 345908 342916
      336932 329946 326953 321958 316969 310981 304986 299992
      288000 286002 282002 279004 274003 271002 267002 266006
      264009 251004 246999 243993 240989 240984 239980 241976
      245972 252959 257945 264929 270918 276904 283891 289879
      291873 291864 293861 293855 296849 303836 308823 310816
      317811 322807 321799 324793 323790 321790 318793 315796
      312798 309799 303802 295803 285804 283807 279807 266814
      261819 259822 259828 257834 254838 251839 249837 248833
      248828 246823 244815 244808 246801 250798 254797 262796
      271794 277793 280791 281789 281786 279782 280775 283770
      290772 301779 305774 307771 305770 301768 299766 300763
      307759 313757 316753 324743 326739 329737 333734 337733
      341730 343726 346719 349714 351708 353700 354697 353693
      350684 348679 348674 370659 372658 374660 375659 377657
      378654 380652
 0.01 517033 516023 513014 508009 503005 498000 494992 489992
      487996 487002 488012 489020 495038 495044 496048 496061
      494065 495068 495074 497077 500082 505078 507073 508068
      509064 510058 512048 515040 517033
 0.01 470195 471193 471191 470188 468188 467188 465188 464189
      463191 463193 463196 464198 465198 467198 468197 469197
      470195
 0.01 414071 410066 407065 404063 407058 400057 396060 389062
      385062 384064 382067 378068 374064 366063 362066 359065
      358067 359070 363070 367070 369073 372076 372080 373082
      377083 384084 385080 388078 390080 392079 395077 397078
      402078 406075 408075 414071
 0.25 426635 438648 443654 446658 448663 448676 449681 451688
      454695 454701 456707 460711 461710 460701 460696 464694
      468698 470703 471707 470714 467717 467718 469732 466742
      461751 458758 456764 454768 447774 419774 414782 409784
      405785 401783 397777 394772 393765 392753 392743 391727
      390716 388710 388704 389700 388696 389691 392682 394678
      394674 388669 388662 390657 397649 405642
 0.25 522263 519260 515257 512255 507252 503254 504257 502262
      499264 496267 495271 495274 497278 499282 503286 507288
      510288 513289
 0.25 536797 535781 534770 531757 528745 526738 524734 520726
      518724 514723 505725 483751 476755 472762 463780 462790
      461800 458805 457810 457815 459820 462824 465826 472821
      471825 469829 467835 468840 472849 475858 477870 481879
      490892 493896 497898 500899 503897 506895 510891 513884
      517875 520863 530822 532814 533810 535802 536797
 0.25 496228 497223 497218 495211 492205 485201 462207 456207
      451204 445201 440203 435208 429209 423209 422213 420216
      414218 410222 406227 401230 398233 397238 399243 402249
      405252 410253 416256 422257 429258 435257 459255 472256
      478255 483252 486250 486245 483240 481234 478225 480223
      482223 487226 492229 496228
 0.25 495169 492160 490155 486152 479147 476144 475140 473137
      470137 460138 456139 454142 449148 435142 433147 432151
      432157 435162 445176 445182 447187 451188 454186 460183
      463179 463173 465170 469170 477169 483170 486172 490172
      492171 495169
 0.25 493148 493146 493145 492142 490141 489140 488139 487138
      485137 484137 482137 481137 482139 483140 483141 485142
      486144 486145 488146 488147 490148 491148 493148 493148
 0.25 451112 451107 450104 448103 444102 441101 437102 435103
      434105 432107 430111 433113 436113 440113 442115 445118
      448116 450114 451112
 0.25 384676 382676 381677 382677 384676 384676
 0.25 394796 393794 390792 386795 384797 381796 377793 374789
      370785 366768 365765 363768 360773 356776 353781 348794
      347798 343803 334812 332815 329821 325831 322837 319843
      308863 303873 298885 290909 286922 286929 286937 287944
      286950 285957 282961 281966 283971 286977 292976 302969
      308961 319941 342897 351876 356864 362854 368842 372832
      377821 380815 384811 390803 393799 394796
 0.50 490219 490214 489211 486208 482205 476206 472209 468210
      457211 446211 441211 436213 427217 424221 421228 415228
      411230 407234 406236 406240 411244 417246 423248 430248
      450246 459243 469240 476246 478246 480241 479236 478234
      467232 466229 470223 474220 478220 485221 488221 490219
      490219
 0.50 499855 499850 498846 495846 493848 491851 490853 489859
      489861 489864 491867 492868 496869 497867 498863 498858
      499855
 0.50 479160 477158 475156 473153 471150 469149 466147 462148
      461151 462156 463158 465160 467162 469163 471163 475162
      477162 479160
 0.50 451163 451158 450156 448155 445153 442152 440150 437151
      436153 436155 437158 440161 442162 444164 447165 449165
      451163
 0.50 439712 440707 438702 435698 430686 425656 420655 415658
      409667 404678 401683 400688 399703 398717 398723 399729
      402734 406738 403750 402758 403762 406764 411760 414756
      416742 418740 419741 422747 423753 428757 433757 435753
      438738 437729 437724 438715 439712
 0.50 369826 369820 368814 364808 358805 355807 352811 341821
      336826 331833 328841 325848 317863 313871 310878 304895
      300901 298909 296913 295919 295929 295941 294949 292958
      293962 297963 304958 308953 316939 324924 327917 331908
      338894 341886 345878 359848 364837 367831 369826
 1.00 482214 481211 479210 478210 477211 476212 475214 477216
      478216 480216 481216 482214 482214
 1.00 464221 464218 461217 456217 449216 444216 438218 434221
      431226 431229 434232 438232 440231 445229 449227 455223
      460223 464221
 1.00 355837 353830 350827 344830 341835 335845 330857 324866
      319877 315889 310901 306912 304918 303926 302933 302941
      301945 303949 308945 319925 328902 333892 338880 349857
      353848 355841 355837
 1.50 450222 450221 448220 447221 446221 445222 444223 446224
      447224 448223 450222 450222
 1.50 350844 350838 347837 344839 341843 338850 334856 330864
      326871 320887 316905 314909 315914 317920 317915 318913
      323907 330891 336876 344860 347853 350845 350844
 1.50 314928 314926 312928 314929 314928
 1.50 312932 313930 312929 311930 311933 312933 312932
 2.00 344853 343850 341851 338856 335861 332867 330872 327878
      327884 331880 334874 336869 339864 342858 344853
 2.00 327891 327889 327888 326889 327891 327892 327891

$$





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