Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 051857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 06/0000 UTC THRU JUL 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT REMAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS FROM FAR EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN AND CENTRAL WV.  MEANWHILE AMPLIFYING EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIRECT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATL BACK
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FAVORED TERRAIN IN WESTERN VA BACK INTO EASTERN WV.  DID NOT
DEPART FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM AND NAM
CONEST...WHICH WERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THE GULF COAST STATES...

A LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY VORT
BACK THRU THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOCUS SOME ENHANCED/MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN WHAT SHOULD
REMAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  STUCK CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL QPFS HERE FOR THE FINER
DETAILS..INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW..NMMB AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS SHOW A
COMBINATION OF DECENT HEIGHT FALLS..FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOLSTERED
BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT..AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET--WHICH BRING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE WITH PWS LIKELY POOLING TO NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.  BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN MN.  FURTHER TO THE WEST...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT...INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD AND EASTERN
WY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOST PART THE
MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAINED IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM..LEADING TO RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
RESULTING CONVECTIVE EVENT.  BY MON AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  BY MON EVENING...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2+
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI..WITH SOME
ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...WESTERN STATES...

SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES RIDGE AND ALSO TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF THE REGION TO
SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES.  WPC
QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF REASONABLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS AND
CONTINUITY...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 521795 520781 517778 514777 507773 504773 502777 499782
      496786 491795 486801 482810 470826 464835 459842 448855
      435870 430876 425883 414899 408905 404909 400912 392917
      389914 388910 386905 385900 380893 374886 370882 368876
      368869 369867 369863 373850 384838 391834 401832 411827
      415819 419811 424802 428792 432784 433779 430774 428769
      425766 416762 413760 407760 400755 391751 387749 383750
      374751 369745 366740 362738 360739 356737 352735 347736
      340741 335747 329752 321759 315767 308773 301780 294786
      287791 277795 272797 271800 266801 261801 257800 253802
      249804 247807 243825 251829 260831 267834 271835 277835
      288836 291841 292847 296858 300868 302872 301878 300884
      301887 305887 308884 311883 314886 329893 339909 341914
      342921 343923 341928 339932 339939 339943 342945 351950
      354950 357952 359950 361949 361945 365946 368950 370953
      369957 352989 340999 325010 321013 316013 311015 306015
      302016 296016 288017 281022 275028 280034 287041 258051
      255060 259067 261072 266074 273079 278081 280084 283092
      286100 294106 301113 310117 316120 320118 329114 332114
      335118 338122 338129 338133 343134 352136 361138 362149
      360155 363159 370160 375179 370181 366181 363182 363185
      365189 381202 386204 391206 396204 399201 400190 398179
      404174 400162 397141 395130 397127 400128 404130 407140
      409149 410161 413172 415182 415188 413191 412199 410207
      410209 413207 416203 419201 422198 425194 428190 425186
      423183 423174 427172 428166 428158 427153
 0.01 427153 425143 426140 428140 431141 433143 441147 444149
      447146 449143 448138 448133 450132 451134 458140 463139
      463111 468102 470098 471091 476064 477051 473054 470053
      471038 471023 466016 459019 456021 455018 456015 457009
      458005 461992 466984 470974 474965 484949 489940 494932
      499924 504914 511895 515886 518882 518874 517866 516861
      515852 516846 518842 519836 519827 520821 521795
 0.01 488022 488017 488015 486012 485009 483006 482004 480006
      478009 478012 478017 479019 479022 481025 484026 487025
      488022
 0.01 400023 398021 395019 393018 390016 387018 387022 387027
      387031 387035 391035 394035 395032 396027 398025 400023
 0.01 378107 376102 374098 370087 365079 361074 358071 354071
      352073 352077 354089 347096 347101 350104 354107 359109
      369114 377109 378107
 0.01 325087 325083 325080 324076 323074 322072 318070 316071
      314073 312076 310079 312081 315084 317085 319086 322088
      325087
 0.25 511812 510804 508803 505805 497814 484833 476842 468851
      452869 445877 438887 431897 425905 395941 381960 369979
      355001 349013 347026 348032 351034 352032 359021 364010
      367005 371001 374997 380995 389988 399981 407974 414981
      416984 416989 416993 417998 417004 415011 414017 411025
      406035 403042 402044 398046 392046 386043 376039 371030
      370038 369041 366043 354043 353047 353051 355058 361058
      367057 371058 374059 375062 373063 372067 373069 375074
      377077 379075 380072 380067 381065 386066 394067 399070
      412072 418074 422078 423085 422091 422098 424107 434109
      437111 440110 444108 447104 449096 445092 439088 436084
      438078 440076 444077 448078 449074 448071 445067 436058
      433052 436046 440042 445041 446038 443032 439026 440017
      451995 457982 462969 467957 471952 474949 481941 484935
      487928 496903 500889 503875 507859 509843 511835 510827
      511812
 0.25 416790 416782 414777 410772 407769 399764 391758 387756
      382755 377758 373757 364755 358755 353758 350769 351776
      354779 356781 357784 355789 348798 346801 346805 349806
      360806 363810 362816 364821 367824 373825 379823 384822
      388820 392816 395812 398807 402804 410798 414795 416790
 0.25 388201 388199 388198 387196 386195 385193 384193 383192
      381192 381195 382197 382198 384199 385200 387201 388201
 0.25 355120 353115 349111 344103 341099 341091 342084 347081
      346078 342076 337077 332077 329079 329082 332087 336097
      339106 341112 345116 350119 354121 355120
 0.25 353899 353893 350889 345880 333867 332861 329857 322851
      315847 312843 310837 312832 314827 316822 314820 310819
      306822 304827 303831 299841 300848 302853 306862 312870
      320873 325882 337896 339900 343902 345899 349900 353899
 0.25 336797 334795 329796 326799 324801 323799 323806 321810
      322813 324813 328811 331807 333804 336800 336797
 0.25 318114 319109 317105 314102 311099 307096 304095 300097
      301102 304105 308107 311111 315113 318114 318114
 0.25 292822 289820 285819 277817 272814 267810 260807 253808
      252811 254814 259817 265821 272823 280824 289824 292822
 0.50 506839 506827 506821 505816 500819 496823 487835 478847
      470857 461866 449876 444881 441886 434899 431904 426911
      417922 413927 414931 416934 420939 422948 421970 423980
      422990 420008 418018 417027 417034 416038 411042 413051
      411054 407054 404052 400052 398055 398058 400060 404062
      407068 421069 426072 429073 432071 435069 439070 446075
      446071 440067 436066 434064 429059 428055 428050 430041
      433039 437038 440036 440034 436028 435026 435020 437012
      441006 445002 450995 456981 461965 463958 467952 477940
      481935 484928 494897 499881 501872 504862 506839
 0.50 443099 444096 443096 441093 440092 438093 437095 436097
      437100 437101 439103 439104 440103 441102 442101 443100
      443099
 0.50 434097 434095 433093 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088
      427089 426091 428094 429096 430097 431098 432098 434097
 0.50 409942 410937 407934 401938 391949 383961 375974 368987
      362000 362003 365001 371997 382988 391979 395972 399966
      405950 409942
 0.50 400774 400769 398767 392762 386759 382760 381766 378772
      377768 374765 368762 366762 364764 365769 367771 370779
      370788 366794 365799 368801 369809 370812 373813 379818
      383816 386814 390808 393801 398796 400793 401788 400777
      400774
 0.50 383056 384053 383049 381046 376046 372046 367047 362047
      358049 358051 363053 368053 374054 377056 382056 383056
 0.50 358014 359011 360009 358008 356009 354010 353011 352013
      351015 351018 350019 350020 350022 350024 350026 352024
      353022 354021 355020 356018 357016 358014 358014
 0.50 344893 342889 340887 338885 336883 334882 331880 330880
      331883 332887 334889 336891 338893 340894 344893
 1.00 500852 501845 499838 495840 492843 480858 469873 465881
      464888 461892 456900 451907 445909 440916 433923 430933
      430942 431948 433952 437955 437961 435965 431975 429989
      427999 422023 420027 422032 425034 427032 430029 436006
      448994 452985 456976 458962 462952 473939 477929 481919
      488899 492890 496878 499865 500852
 1.00 395959 397952 393957 389962 386968 382972 379976 376981
      375985 378986 382982 386977 389972 391968 394961 395959
 1.00 388804 388800 386797 383795 383788 380786 376787 373791
      371795 374798 379798 381798 379803 382807 384810 386806
      388804
 1.50 494868 495856 494851 492851 483862 476874 468888 462901
      460908 455914 451919 445923 439927 435933 434941 435945
      438947 440950 441956 438964 434979 433990 434996 438996
      441996 444993 448988 452980 454971 457955 460949 466943
      470938 473931 479916 482908 484901 491886 494868
 1.50 432009 432005 430008 429010 427012 425015 424018 423022
      422025 421029 423029 425027 427025 428023 430019 431016
      431011 432009
 1.50 379791 381788 377791 376792 375792 373794 373795 375796
      375797 376796 377796 378794 379793 379791
 2.00 491868 489868 486869 483872 476882 469892 465906 463912
      460918 451925 443933 441935 441938 443947 444954 442960
      439966 437973 436980 439984 443988 447986 451972 454957
      456950 460945 464942 467937 473925 475919 477910 482899
      484892 485884 491868
 3.00 446969 449963 446963 442969 443971 445971 446969

$$




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