Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261756
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...

A WEAK S/WV SHEARING NEWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SLIGHTLY SHARPENING UPR TROF MOVING EWD ACRS THE NRN HI PLAINS
THIS PD WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHWR/TSTMS WITH A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL MOVE NEW ALONG A FRONTAL BNDRY THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION FRI NIGHT.  THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WITH AMOUNTS FROM IA INTO WI..HAS TRENDED WETTER TOWARD CONSENSUS
BUT BELIEVE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS IS A TAD TOO FAR NW AWAY FROM
EXPECTED AXIS OF HIER INSTABILITY.  A WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WI ON SAT WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
AXIS FOR AFTN CONVECTION DVLPG EWD INTO LOWER MI SWWD THRU
INDIANA/IL AS SUPPORTED BY 00Z WRF ARW AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR.
TRAILING THIS SYSTEM..STG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOC WITH
RATHER COMPACT VORT MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/FORCING TO OVERCOME LOWER MSTR COMPARED TO
AREAS TO THE EAST...TO SUPPORT A BAND OF AFTN CONVECTION THRU THE
ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.  HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER HERE WITH
THE QPF COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS.

4 CORNERS REGION...

A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACRS THE SW U.S.
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS PD IN RESPONSE TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF MID/UPR TROF ACRS THE SW U.S...WITH ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NRN
STREAM AND IMPULSES COMING ACRS CA HELPING TO CONSOLIDATE A STGR
VORT CENTER OVER SRN CA/WRN AZ BY SAT EVENING.  THIS WILL HELP
DRAW AREA OF HIER MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WWD INTO WRN AZ/SRN
NV AND SE CA BY SAT AFTN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTN TSTMS
..ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.  MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF UPR
SHEAR AXIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AFTN/EVEN TSTM ACTIVITY.
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER LARGE...ESPECIALLY WITH HI RES
MODELS..SO A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS USED
MOST AREAS. POTNL WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SMALLER SCALE HEAVY
RAINS PER HI RES GUIDANCE.


LOWER MS VALLEY, WESTERN GULF COAST, & FLORIDA...

AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS EXTENDING FROM MUCH OF CNTL/SRN FL WWD
INTO THE WRN/CNTL GULF COAST REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRIMARILY DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THIS REGION.  MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF EMBDD UPR
DISTURBANCES MOVING WWD FROM THE NE GULF..AND ANOTHER DVLPG OVER
THE WRN GULF OF MEX WHICH WILL FACTOR INTO AIDING UPR DIFFLUENCE
AND ENHANCING LOCALIZED CNVTV DVLPMENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN BOTH QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT...MOST GENL AGREE IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN AXIS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CNTL/WRN GULF COAST GIVEN WEDGE OF MID/UPR LEVEL DRY AIR
JUST TO THE NORTH.  A FEW MODELS ARE A BIT FURTHER INLAND..IE THE
00Z CMC AND UKMET WITH HEAVIER RAINS ALONG THE UPR TX AND LA
COAST..GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STGR MID LEVEL LOW DVLPMENT..BUT AT THIS
TIME PREFER TO GO WITH A MIDDLE GROUND SOLN GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.
LIKEWISE..A COUPLE MODELS REMAIN A BIT STGR IN DVLPG 5H CIRC AND
ASSOC SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY SAT EVENING..BUT THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD AT LEAST A WEAKER SFC REFLECTION OFF THE SE
COAST OF FL..AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WLY UPR SHEAR NOTED ON SATL...

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 536207 537174 536167 534162 532157 529153 525150 519148
      516150 512154 506148 504151 507156 511161 511167 509166
      506164 503160 495163 490162 487167 487174 490178 492178
      494181 496187 498193 500198 505208 512216 517226 521234
      525232 527231 528226 527219 528215 530213 536207
 0.01 516267 516264 516263 515261 514260 513259 512258 511257
      510256 510257 508259 508262 509263 510264 512265 512266
      513267 515268 516267
 0.01 534997 519991 516990 511990 503992 486996 483993 481988
      481981 484979 490974 497968 506954 511947 514939 517926
      517918 515913 515900 508895 502890 498888 495888 491884
      488881 479879 476860 474856 474849 474841 474835 474822
      475818 473815 466811 463807 461808 457810 453813 449814
      444817 441818 436820 433822 427823 419826 412830 399839
      392845 385850 371860 367862 366864 364863 360854 355860
      351868 346875 341880 335897 331906 327913 322919 321922
      322926 323932 320934 318932 317926 316920 310901 308891
      307880 307876 304872 299866 298862 298856 302854 305850
      305838 307827 308824 310820 317815 321812 324808 326805
      325799 320795 310796 307798 302798 298788 294782 288778
      282778 277777 273776 269773 266766 262757 264743 263734
      261726 209750 208784 211791 216797 220800 224801 228803
      230808 246836 248843 253850 255854 256860 254866 252870
      246875 243884 243889 245893 247901 259917 259939 259944
      261949 264958 266967 270975 271980 272982 274983 282987
      290989 297986 312977 328973 342965 348959 354950 355946
      360945 366938 368936 371938 373941 374943 373945 371948
      369952 368956 367962 366967 362971 360975 357978 350982
      341986 338988 338990 341999 343003 346007 348008 348012
      347017 346022 346028 342037 340041 335042 332044 325043
      318039 316035 317031 319027 320021 320016 318011 315007
      313003 311000 308002 302008 301012 297015 290030 288035
      289039 295044 301049 309049 312048 316050 319054 319060
      324066 327070 324073 321075 318078 310076 303071 299068
      296065 290057 285055 279056
 0.01 279056 277059 272060 268058 265054 256042 248037 242037
      239040 240048 243056 248074 252080 259085 264085 268087
      270090 273091 278100 282102 288102 293104 296106 302112
      317109 322111 325113 329116 331119 338135 341143 346151
      352156 355159 360161 364162 369163 377157 380151 383152
      385149 387144 387137 389132 391128 396121 398117 401116
      410099 410096 412094 414091 418088 418083 414074 409066
      406064 404063 406061 407058 406056 401055 396053 394049
      391046 379045 371043 371039 374036 377034 380029 386025
      390023 395023 400023 403022 409016 415012 424006 429002
      431000 433001 431006 426021 421029 420036 422040 427046
      434050 442053 445052 449049 453047 457049 461055 465064
      469073 471073 473068 475063 478059 481055 484054 488053
      492049 497044 502037 513026 518019 524012 534997
 0.01 510246 508236 504227 503221 500217 492213 488211 483212
      479213 477215 476218 478219 483221 493224 498231 502240
      506249 510246
 0.01 429678 428670 427663 425659 422659 421656 419651 413652
      408654 407656 404657 401661 399665 395675 389695 385704
      380713 377722 376727 377733 387735 389739 394738 400732
      405722 414706 425689 429678
 0.01 391794 389792 387793 380796 372799 366798 364795 363790
      363784 365777 366772 368775 370780 372781 374781 375784
      376790 375792 379792 382784 382775 380775 376777 374767
      367753 364750 359750 355752 353755 350762 348771 346775
      344777 341784 338791 340795 343797 347797 351798 353807
      353812 352815 348822 348833 346841 344844 345848 348851
      352853 358850 362845 364838 366833 369829 374824 378818
      381811 382807 385804 391794
 0.01 376191 375189 375188 373187 372186 371185 370185 368184
      366185 367187 367188 368190 369191 370192 370193 372194
      374194 374193 376192 376191
 0.01 372084 372083 371082 370080 369081 369084 370086 371086
      372084
 0.01 349066 348064 346064 344064 342064 341064 339063 337065
      335067 337069 339068 340068 342068 344069 346069 347068
      348067 349066
 0.25 521194 522189 522186 519183 518182 515179 513178 510178
      509180 509183 510188 512191 513194 514196 518197 519196
      521194
 0.25 489942 489932 486927 480922 476923 474926 466937 460949
      460967 454981 454987 460991 463994 467989 474974 479962
      487950 489942
 0.25 453891 453885 452880 451875 448872 442867 440863 439859
      436848 432841 425839 422838 416839 406852 402857 397865
      389879 385886 382895 379903 380907 383910 389914 396915
      403912 403915 400919 396924 392933 388941 384949 383952
      384957 385963 387966 395963 400959 410946 415939 420934
      428931 431930 435932 438933 441932 443928 445923 446912
      449904 452897 453891
 0.25 447027 449022 447017 446016 442016 441017 438019 437021
      436026 436031 438033 440035 443034 445031 446029 447027
 0.25 385118 383115 382114 380115 378117 378118 377119 377121
      377123 379125 380124 381124 382122 383121 383120 385118
      385118
 0.25 381078 380076 380074 380071 380070 380069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373065 372066 373067 375067 375069 376071
      376073 376076 376078 377080 379079 381078
 0.25 384983 385977 384971 377975 372983 368992 366003 365007
      361011 357018 357021 359021 362018 368012 372003 377997
      382989 384983
 0.25 366135 366133 366130 365130 364131 363132 361134 363136
      365136 366135
 0.25 343098 341093 341087 339084 337080 339076 336075 331075
      329078 329081 330086 333090 335093 338097 341100 343098
 0.25 337056 336054 334053 332053 330053 329053 327053 325055
      326057 327058 328058 330058 332058 333058 334058 336058
      337056
 0.25 306093 307089 305086 301082 293071 288068 285067 280067
      274067 268065 263061 259056 255051 253054 254057 255064
      256073 258075 262076 269077 276088 281092 287093 295096
      299096 303095 306093
 0.25 307954 305939 304930 303920 299891 297874 294868 292866
      288864 284861 280856 274845 271842 270839 267838 264839
      265847 267855 268867 271884 269890 265894 263896 263901
      265909 267916 270922 275935 276942 275949 275958 277965
      282969 288968 294966 299962 304958 307954
 0.25 295809 295805 293802 288798 282796 275796 269794 264790
      258789 250788 244791 242799 243804 247811 255819 260823
      262824 267823 264812 269808 276805 286808 291810 295809
 0.25 249760 249753 247748 244744 239741 234741 228742 224744
      220748 214755 215762 217766 221776 224780 228784 232784
      235782 242775 246766 249760
 0.50 481937 481932 477927 474931 471935 469938 466942 464947
      464952 467953 471951 474954 477954 479952 480944 481939
      481937
 0.50 473962 472959 469959 467961 466964 464967 463969 462971
      462976 464977 465976 467974 469972 471969 472964 473962
 0.50 446894 446888 443885 434885 425886 420888 416891 415894
      415898 416904 415911 410918 405925 400933 395939 390947
      389951 393949 404945 415931 421925 428919 434915 440907
      443904 444901 446894
 0.50 430869 430863 429857 429852 427848 420848 414851 409857
      403862 400867 399872 403871 409867 414872 420874 423877
      426877 430869 430869
 0.50 301941 301931 299920 296910 295904 295897 296891 295885
      294879 293874 290871 286869 281867 279868 279871 280875
      286881 288885 287891 286895 282898 276902 273906 272910
      273917 275920 280927 282931 282937 282949 282956 284960
      288960 292959 297953 301943 301941
 0.50 293083 292079 291077 289076 286074 284072 282072 278071
      276071 275075 275079 277082 279084 281085 284086 286087
      288086 290085 293083
 0.50 267800 264798 262798 260797 257797 255797 252800 250802
      250804 250806 254806 257805 259805 263803 265801 267800
 0.50 267070 265069 264068 262070 263071 265071 267070
 0.50 241757 241752 239749 234745 229745 225746 220751 217758
      219764 223769 229774 231775 234773 239768 240761 241757
 1.00 429902 429900 426900 424906 421912 418917 414921 411926
      408931 409933 410931 414927 417923 421919 426914 429909
      429902
 1.00 296937 297931 295926 293922 290920 288920 286922 287927
      288933 287939 288945 290949 294950 295945 295939 296937
 1.00 287081 285079 283079 281080 283081 285081 286081 287081
 1.00 235762 234758 235754 233750 231749 227750 225751 223754
      223756 223758 225761 227762 230762 231762 234762 235762
 1.50 229755 228754 226755 228755 229755

$$





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