Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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794
FXUS04 KWBC 091855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EST FRI DEC 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 10/0000 UTC THRU DEC 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES AND THE INITIATION OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT---CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
 THERE WILL BE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS MAIN INFLOW AXIS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD---WITH A MORE RAPID SOUTHWARD PUSH AFTER DAY 1.  VERY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS UPCOMING PRECIP EVENT WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE.  HEAVIEST
TOTALS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF 5-8"
AMOUNTS DEPICTED...WITH 1-3" TOTALS ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST.

INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES---MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALSO EXPECTED TO PRESS
EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NV
INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL UT---SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO.  THIS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AREAL COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS AND HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN NV---ALONG WITH HEAVY PRECIP AND SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WASATCH---TETONS OF WY AND SAWTOOTH RANGE OF
CENTRAL ID.  FOR QPF DETAILS---WPC LEANED MORE TOWARD THE HI RES
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---MORE TYPICAL PRECIP TOTALS ON TAP
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE NATION.  WHILE THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AND
STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST---SUSTAINED ONSHORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM
THE WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OREGON AND
WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE.

NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY LARGE SCALE LIFT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW EVENT
TO SPREAD EASTWARD DAYS 2-3 FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY---ACROSS THE
LAKES AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GREAT LAKES

PRIOR TO ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS SPREADING EAST INTO THE LAKES
BEYOND DAY 1---CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PATTERN DOWNWIND OF ALL OF THE
GREAT LAKES.  NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DURING DAY 1---ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW TOTALS LIKELY
OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.P. OF MI---NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE L.P. OF MI---AND FROM FAR NORTHEAST OH---NORTHWEST
PA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NY STATE.  FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
DETAILS---SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD.

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA INTO THE UPPER KEYS

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIE TO THE
SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DAY 1.  THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME DAY 1---STRENGTHENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST INTO THE UPPER KEYS.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA---WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND THE UPPER KEYS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONCENTRATED RAIN BANDS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 517270 517257 515247 514240 511230 508223 506215 508207
      512200 516192 517188 518182 518177 516172 514164 506148
      504145 502139 501126 503111 504100 502093 501082 499072
      499069 497066 494060 492051 489042 486032 483022 480014
      470999 466981 457944 447915 439901 436894 430888 426887
      423889 417897 415905 415919 416933 417937 417943 417966
      419973 422980 426995 430013 433017 435021 438032 438038
      441041 447044 454048 456050 458055 454063 453067 452070
      449069 443066 440067 439072 443077 447080 451085 450090
      447090 439087 435087 431085 425081 424075 424070 426066
      427060 425056 421054 418057 414058 407053 403052 398053
      397057 396063 384063 384070 381076 383092 389092 389088
      387085 386081 386078 388078 393083 394087 398088 402082
      406079 410079 417085 418090 421093 424096 423099 418103
      415105 412103 410096 408094 404095 402103 395100 394105
      392108 386111 383114 382119 383123 387125 390125 392128
      397136 396145 392151 387161 386165 386171 392184 390186
      386186 380186 375183 368180 359179 352181 348183 349186
      352189 356190 363194 365197 366200 365205 362208 359208
      356205 353203 351199 347191 344196 344204 346210 350216
      356227 361234 367239 372244 379249 390260 399266 401268
      405267 419263 432261 445260 458260 461259 466261 475265
      481270 486277 491284 495286 499288 502288 504290 507288
      509284 517270
 0.01 482882 482870 481861 480852 478846 476840 472833 465821
      462815 460809 455798 451794 446791 441787 437779 436771
      436764 436761 437758 436751 434749 431749 430752 427749
      422746 420749 421752 418758 416762 413762 414769 413777
      403785 398789 393791 387796 383800 381805 386804 396797
      401794 407794 409797 410802 411811 411818 414824 420823
      422815 424807 425799 429798 431802 432810 431814 434821
      436828 438837 441843 442848 439851 423838 419846 418853
      417860 417865 417870 420870 425868 429866 435865 451864
      456865 460866 462869 463899 465911 467915 471911 473902
      477891 482882
 0.01 459706 458702 455703 447708 444707 440709 437713 436717
      439718 442718 442720 435726 430727 426729 429731 434730
      439729 444730 449725 453717 458709 459706
 0.01 465035 465033 464031 462030 464028 462026 461028 462030
      462033 462035 464038 465035
 0.01 288810 287803 285800 281796 277794 275787 272784 268781
      264780 258780 252780 246781 241784 233789 229792 226797
      223805 221817 220823 220828 221835 222843 224847 226851
      230853 234850 238846 239842 241829 243820 246815 249812
      254809 259809 273807 278806 282808 285810 288810
 0.01 266972 265970 261968 259964 256960 254956 250954 241953
      234957 233961 231965 233975 235978 239981 242982 248982
      253978 263975 266972
 0.25 507280 509264 511250 510240 507229 502218 496208 493205
      488203 482203 477205 472206 468208 465209 461207 455211
      447213 441212 435212 431208 426197 424192 426187 432177
      434174 433167 432163 436165 442171 446174 449179 447183
      447187 449188 454187 458185 462180 462176 460173 461168
      466169 471170 476169 479167 482164 483160 482155 477147
      477144 481142 487141 487138 486136 476129 471128 467124
      465121 463114 461103 460099 456096 433091 425085 423088
      424093 427099 427101 424102 420104 419109 416111 413110
      409101 406098 405102 402107 398108 390114 391117 394118
      399121 403125 407128 410131 410138 401151 399158 396164
      394169 393174 394177 398182 400186 399192 395194 389193
      383191 375186 371184 366183 362184 361187 367194 369200
      372206 371211 366213 361212 358213 358217 364226 372231
      383244 391249 401254 412253 422252 458251 465252 471255
      476258 482262 495276 501281 505281 507280
 0.25 477880 477873 476867 473855 468846 465844 463849 464861
      465868 467873 468877 468884 466888 465895 466902 468902
      471891 473886 475882 477880
 0.25 445184 443182 441182 441183 440185 441186 442186 443186
      444184 445184
 0.25 455818 455813 453811 452809 450807 446805 445805 441805
      438806 436808 436811 437813 439816 441819 442820 446821
      449821 453820 455818
 0.25 455850 456847 456845 455842 454841 452840 451841 449842
      447843 446845 446846 446848 446849 446851 447853 448855
      450856 451856 452855 453854 454852 455850 455850
 0.25 430859 429857 428855 427853 425851 424853 425855 425857
      426858 426860 427860 429860 430859
 0.25 424789 424782 420780 417785 416790 417797 417802 415807
      415814 416816 419813 421808 422803 423797 424791 424789
 0.25 413073 413071 412069 411068 410068 410070 410071 411073
      413073
 0.25 271799 270795 269793 263790 257789 249789 243792 236795
      233798 228805 226817 225825 225833 226839 228842 232843
      235838 236832 238825 240817 243813 249809 254806 262805
      268803 271799
 0.50 505276 505268 504260 506250 508242 506235 502222 499217
      495214 488209 478209 469212 450215 438216 434216 430212
      424204 423200 420196 416193 413191 410191 406193 402198
      390195 381191 373186 368185 365187 366189 371199 376206
      382214 383218 379220 374215 371214 369215 366219 366223
      370226 378233 386241 396247 400249 405251 425249 430247
      434245 443245 453246 459245 464245 474251 481256 489263
      497273 501277 505276
 0.50 491234 490230 489228 486225 484224 481222 478221 475222
      475225 478228 480230 481232 484234 488235 491234
 0.50 456229 455226 453227 451227 451228 449229 449230 447231
      448232 450233 452233 454232 455231 456229 456229
 0.50 465157 465150 462148 459147 455147 450148 445146 441144
      437141 434139 431136 430132 430126 432120 436117 445117
      448116 451112 451105 451100 447097 438095 433092 430090
      428088 424088 425093 427097 429101 426103 418112 412111
      410107 408103 406105 403108 400109 398115 401117 403121
      412127 415130 416134 413141 401155 402160 402167 403175
      404180 407183 412184 415186 418185 423179 428173 430171
      430167 428161 427156 430155 432157 435160 440164 448169
      452168 455164 460159 465157
 0.50 471870 471868 471865 470863 470860 469858 468856 467853
      466853 466856 467858 466861 467863 467866 468868 469870
      471872 471870
 0.50 422799 422796 422794 422792 422789 421787 420787 419789
      419790 419792 419795 418797 419799 419801 420802 421801
      422799 422799
 0.50 419809 419806 419805 417806 416807 416809 416811 417813
      418811 419809 419809
 0.50 267800 265796 260794 255793 249794 240798 232804 229814
      228825 229831 231835 233831 235826 238816 244809 249806
      254805 260804 265802 267800
 1.00 498266 498260 497255 495252 493246 491242 487240 484243
      483246 484250 486254 489257 491261 495264 498266 498266
 1.00 500237 501235 500232 499229 499228 499227 498224 497223
      496223 495225 495228 495230 496231 496233 497234 498236
      499237 500237
 1.00 480244 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232 475232
      474233 473234 472235 472236 472239 473241 473242 475243
      476244 478244 479244 480244
 1.00 445157 444156 444154 443153 441152 441151 440150 438149
      436150 436151 437153 437155 438156 439156 441157 442158
      444158 445157
 1.00 444111 443103 439099 434097 430092 428090 426091 429096
      432102 430105 427105 425105 424110 429112 433113 436112
      442112 444111
 1.00 426242 425237 421234 417232 413228 415224 415218 414213
      411212 410209 402204 398201 393198 375189 371188 370192
      375201 381208 389214 397219 401223 401225 381226 381230
      384233 392240 400245 407246 411246 420246 424244 426242
 1.00 416205 416203 416202 414201 412200 410201 410202 410203
      411204 411207 411208 413208 414207 415206 416205
 1.00 419175 419173 418172 416171 414172 414174 416177 417177
      419175
 1.00 420159 420157 419152 417151 415151 412150 408151 406152
      404153 406156 409156 411159 412162 414164 417163 419161
      420159
 1.00 415118 415116 415115 413115 412114 410114 408113 407114
      406115 406114 406112 405110 403111 402113 403114 405115
      406116 406117 408118 410119 411119 413119 415118 415118
 1.00 408110 408107 407106 407107 405109 407112 408110
 1.00 373223 373220 372218 370218 370219 370220 370222 371223
      373223
 1.00 258801 257800 256799 255799 253800 252802 254802 256802
      257802 258801
 1.50 495259 495257 495256 494254 494253 493251 492250 491248
      491247 490245 488244 487246 488247 488249 489250 490252
      490253 491255 491256 493258 494259 495259
 1.50 423241 419236 413234 406231 401230 396229 390230 388233
      391236 396240 401242 407244 413243 418242 423241
 1.50 411223 412218 409215 406210 402207 396201 388197 379193
      376191 373193 374197 376201 382209 389213 397218 405223
      408226 411223
 2.00 418240 417239 416238 414238 412237 411236 409237 407239
      408240 410241 412241 413240 414240 415239 417239 418240
 2.00 407218 404210 399206 393200 386197 379193 375193 375197
      378203 384209 391213 397217 403219 407218
 2.00 401237 401235 400234 399232 397231 395233 393235 394236
      396237 398238 399239 401237
 3.00 401216 402211 399208 396204 393201 388199 384197 379196
      377197 379201 381205 384208 389210 393213 396215 401216
      401216
 4.00 400213 399211 397208 396206 394204 391202 389201 386199
      382198 380201 382204 385206 386208 389210 392211 394213
      398214 400213
 5.00 398213 398210 396208 394205 392203 389201 387200 384199
      382202 384205 386206 389208 391210 395212 396213 398213
 6.00 395210 395209 394207 392206 392207 392209 393210 395210
      395210

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