Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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445
FXUS04 KWBC 271848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 28/0000 UTC THRU MAY 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID TO UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD--PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE QPF DETAILS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN HANDLED VERY POORLY RECENTLY BY
THE MODELS---WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THESE DETAILS
GOING INTO THE NEW DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS CONTINUE
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW---ALONG A WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX.  MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD---SUPPORTING
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE SLOW MOVING/TRAINING OF CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THIS
CONVECTION...WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

LOWER MO---UPPER MS VALLEY---UPPER LAKES

AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD---PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
LAKES---IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  AS MENTIONED
ABOVE---GIVEN THE POOR RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH QPF
DETAILS--CONFIDENCE IS LOW GOING FORWARD.  HOWEVER---WITH PW
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE---2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS---THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WILL CONTINUE.  THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN WAS USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE MODEL SPREAD.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST DAY 1.  PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER NC COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
AFTER THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD INTO DAY 2. SEE THE LATEST NHC
OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A TROF IN THE MEAN WILL PERSIST DAY 1 OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S./SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.  A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
FROM THIS MEAN TROF WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE THE BEST LARGE SCALE UVVS LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  DAY QPF FOLLOWED MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM---ADDITIONAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FOR THE WA COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 554127 556113 556108 555102 554096 552092 544087 532080
      523068 518062 515056 507045 502041 496039 486033 481028
      478026 474026 470027 467029 459033 455034 451034 443032
      440030 437031 435036 436039 440044 445048 451047 458048
      471052 477056 474063 473068 475072 472074 467074 460077
      455076 452074 446069 441067 434068 434073 437074 440074
      444077 449082 450086 448090 445091 441090 439092 435091
      431087 427082 425077 424070 424064 425058 423055 420055
      419053 418048 413046 410048 379045 371045 366048 364051
      365055 367062 371068 371073 372075 372080 374082 381084
      384091 387093 389091 387083 388080 391080 393084 395087
      397085 400083 402080 405078 409078 413078 416081 418083
      422084 426091 429095 431097 434097 441099 443102 441103
      440110 443118 445123 448125 454130 459131 461129 468124
      473120 480121 487119 493116 506115 513114 520115 522116
      523122 522128 521133 518138 513144 511148 507147 505145
      500144 488131 485128 481127 475126 471128 471132 470138
      473139 480140 484141 485142 485145 483147 478147 476147
      473149 470154 468157 470160 477168 481176 486182 493189
      496191 497197 497200 495202 492203 489203 485204 479205
      475204 473206 469210 464213 461215 457214 452218 455221
      462223 465222 467222 474223 483226 484229 483231 480229
      475228 471229 465232 458234 455236 454240 458245 464250
      475259 479264 483271 486277 490282 500290 506291 512286
      517277 520267 523254 522242 523236 525233 528225 532217
      535207 538198 540190 544174 547168 547162 549159 554127
 0.01 230007 232011 236012 240014 246014 269018 275018 279020
      289022 297024 304020 311007 313003 314997 312989 312984
      310980 310973 309968 309962 312954 313947 314943 318940
      322938 327936 330935 332937 337945 342953 344957 345961
      351967 360968 367969 375972 378975 380979 381982 381988
      380992 381996 384004 387011 389015 391018 398023 408025
      418022 420018 424018 427021 432023 441025 444027 447025
      452019 458013 462008 464001 465996 468994 478981 483976
      488970 490968 493967 498968 505963 512957 514950 516946
      522939 524935 525931 528919 529907 531899 531893 530888
      526864 522842 520834 517824 513814 510802 502776 499768
      496758 490750 484744 472748 465752 462755 460759 450792
      440809 436813 429813 428809 427804 426789 428785 427778
      429767 435761 441758 444749 446741 444731 451728 456725
      463718 468712 472704 476694 478689 478682 476677 472675
      450701 445707 439711 435701 430697 426693 423699 421703
      420708 418719 414727 413732 410736 407745 404750 403756
      401765 396772 391780 388783 384786 379791 376793 373794
      364804 355817 353821 351825 349833 350835 352835 357835
      364829 367825 370822 373821 374824 372829 368839 368850
      367855 367861 364868 362873 360874 353879 341884 330884
      325884 322886 314889 308894 298909 290916 285923 277936
      276949 276961 277970 278975 280978 283980 281984 277990
      274992 270992 266994 262992 250988 239985 231987
 0.01 399211 397206 395203 392199 391195 386187 379181 371178
      365177 361177 357180 356185 359188 363190 370195 377201
      385206 388209 393210 399211
 0.01 408112 410098 408096 404098 402102 399104 396108 393110
      385113 379117 377122 377126 380128 384127 388120 394114
      397113 400113 405114 408112
 0.01 399150 400148 400146 398145 396143 395142 393142 391141
      389141 389144 389146 389148 390149 392151 394151 395152
      397152 399150 399150
 0.01 359754 358749 353747 346745 342746 339748 333750 329748
      324748 321747 318750 306759 301766 298773 296782 294788
      289796 284798 279798 272795 269795 264796 256800 250805
      244809 242811 242815 246823 252828 262836 270839 275839
      279837 279833 280831 282831 289831 305825 309823 314822
      319822 323823 325825 331824 336818 342804 348787 353771
      359754
 0.01 348201 348199 348196 349194 348194 347192 347189 345189
      344191 344193 344195 344198 345200 345201 347201 348201
 0.01 344178 344175 344173 343171 343169 343168 341168 340170
      341171 342173 341175 342175 343177 343178 344178
 0.25 546114 539101 534091 530085 526081 521078 516076 513075
      510076 504076 492074 486077 482080 472083 467086 462090
      456098 453100 451104 449111 451117 455117 467113 476109
      486105 495101 501098 506099 515103 537114 541115 543117
      546114
 0.25 536182 536174 535169 529169 522171 517170 514168 509167
      506168 504172 504176 509185 515192 518196 521198 524198
      528196 533188 536182
 0.25 515272 517264 517257 516248 508230 504223 499217 495215
      491213 488215 488219 491229 491233 490237 482238 478231
      474232 471236 469240 470243 477250 482255 491268 497277
      502283 508282 513276 515272
 0.25 516900 517889 516878 513858 510843 507828 500800 496787
      492776 488770 483767 480767 476770 473775 469789 468797
      467803 461814 455823 449830 444838 437849 433855 429860
      426864 425871 430885 432890 434897 436902 441905 441909
      438914 435918 432919 416913 416903 417897 416885 412883
      406885 397887 379898 372898 366898 359899 352901 340905
      329908 325906 320907 314908 308909 300914 292920 285930
      282936 280943 280949 280958 281964 283971 287972 290972
      294968 298959 302950 308941 317934 323930 328928 339924
      345922 352921 356920 361921 365925 367927 366930 362938
      360944 359952 361956 364954 369951 379943 384940 388943
      393952 398963 399966 398969 395973 392976 391983 392990
      396995 398000 400002 404004 407004 411003 418002 423001
      427003 432006 436005 443999 450992 457984 459979 460974
      460966 457960 455957 455952 458945 462942 468940 476934
      487936 490937 496934 509922 512916 514910 516900
 0.25 345765 342762 338760 333761 328763 318767 309772 307777
      306782 307789 310793 314797 318799 323801 327801 332799
      336796 341788 343782 344776 345770 345765
 0.25 272816 270812 268808 265806 261805 257805 253808 253814
      256818 259820 263822 266825 269824 268821 271818 272816
 0.50 511263 512258 512253 511247 507237 502228 498223 494223
      495236 494241 492242 487241 484245 485251 491260 496269
      500274 504276 506269 508266 511263
 0.50 522096 520091 517089 508087 502087 500085 494082 490082
      486084 484088 486091 490094 494094 496092 501091 504090
      507094 509093 512097 514096 519097 520096 522096
 0.50 510900 511888 510878 507864 505842 502829 498811 494797
      489783 485780 479782 475787 474794 472808 471819 468823
      460830 457837 455844 455854 456862 460867 465869 469873
      471879 474887 477892 482903 485911 488916 493918 497916
      503913 507909 510900
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 478232 476231
      475232 474233 473234 472236 473239 473241 474242 475243
      476244 478245 479245 481244
 0.50 481095 479090 476089 472088 468090 466095 464099 465104
      470105 473105 477104 479099 480097 481095
 0.50 452978 453974 452970 450965 445957 442946 436940 430939
      426941 420947 405943 399945 397950 398956 402959 406961
      410961 414959 414961 410973 406979 404986 404993 406998
      410999 419996 424994 427994 446988 450983 452978
 0.50 414928 414923 414919 412915 408908 404906 401906 399907
      396911 392917 389920 378926 370933 366939 368942 371941
      376938 382936 393933 405934 411932 414928
 0.50 338780 337771 333767 327768 322770 317773 312777 311784
      313790 317795 323797 329794 333789 336785 338780
 0.50 330919 328915 325913 319913 303916 296919 292923 288930
      285937 283945 283954 283963 283967 286970 288970 292968
      294962 300947 304941 308936 319927 326924 330919
 0.50 265813 264811 263811 262810 261809 260809 259809 258810
      257809 256809 256810 257811 258813 260815 262816 264815
      264814 265813
 1.00 493835 493828 492820 491815 489810 486806 483810 481816
      480822 481829 483834 486839 489840 493836 493835
 1.00 436973 436968 435961 433958 430959 426962 423966 421971
      420975 419980 418983 421983 424985 428985 432983 435980
      436973 436973
 1.00 307928 307923 303923 295926 291931 288937 286945 286956
      286966 289966 291964 293956 296948 299941 303935 306929
      307928

$$





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