Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230743
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 23/1200 UTC THRU SEP 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW MEXICO...

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE
TAIL END OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF
HIGHER PWS GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. CURRENT AREA
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY WITH AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/DEEP-LAYER DRYING ENSUES FROM THE W/NW.
ADDITIONAL AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN .25 AND .50 WILL
BE EXPECTED WITH THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER
THE LATEST (WEAKENING) RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.


...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NE/SD EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY WED MORNING. THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
CLOSED LOW IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES (1.5 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WITH THE RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS HIGHEST
DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY PER THE 40 KT LLJ AND (THUS) MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS...WITH AGAIN
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIGH RES ARW/NMM FOLLOWED
FOR SPEED DETAILS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL VORTEX OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS
PERIOD. THE DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE BC COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD (12Z WED)...THOUGH THE APPROACHING LEE-SIDE UPPER JET
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FAVOR
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES ACROSS
WA/OR AND FAR NRN CA...ALONG WITH THE WA CASCADES GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SSW 850-700 MB FLOW AND DIRECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER (AXIS OF 1.25-1.5+ PWS...WHICH IS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER). WPC CONTINUED TO USE
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...INCORPORATING SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 4KM NAM CONEST...NSSL
WRF...AND WRF-ARW) GIVEN THE BETTER DETAILS OVER THE TERRAIN.
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WERE NOTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL RANGES GIVEN THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND
FIRST STAB AT THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME. PER THE HIGH-RES
RUNS...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2.5-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.


...FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
TODAY...SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE PW VALUES AOA 2.00
INCHES IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST.

ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE SHARPENING COASTAL
FRONT.  THIS AND ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT DEEPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND POSITIVE THETA-E/PW ADVECTION DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD (THROUGH 12Z WED)... HOWEVER
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS BETWEEN .50 AND 2.0 INCHES ARE NEVERTHELESS
ANTICIPATED USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
FROM NORTHEAST FL TO THE NC OUTER BANKS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 524262 524254 524249 523243 522239 519227 518217 532222
      535218 536203 535190 532184 524164 520155 516149 510143
      502141 497141 494141 489136 484128 475126 466124 462121
      458120 453117 452113 453100 452095 450092 446094 444094
      442091 438091 437100 435101 433104 434107 439108 443116
      444121 445124 444127 453137 454140 453143 452149 453154
      456155 461157 464161 467168 460174 457182 459182 462179
      465177 469178 473181 476186 477191 475194 464205 458209
      453214 445217 438218 425226 421227 416226 410229 396233
      384243 379250 377253 378257 381261 382264 380266 375271
      384283 387285 391284 398284 414280 429277 436275 442273
      450271 453272 457274 466278 472285 481299 486301 488300
      496300 502300 505300 507297 510291 514288
 0.01 481690 479686 478679 476674 473671 468672 465676 460684
      455692 452701 450711 450715 452718 454720 462716 465715
      470711 475705 480696 481690
 0.01 474974 474966 473962 471949 470943 467940 460935 454932
      443932 434933 430934 424934 416936 405937 398940 391945
      376955 370961 366967 361976 358985 359009 359016 361018
      367019 371018 373023 373028 376028 377024 377014 388013
      392011 396012 400012 402014 406014 414018 418020 421025
      433037 438043 446048 450044 452032 457007 458002 459994
      461990 464989 467986 471982 474974
 0.01 373713 373708 371706 368702 359703 355704 353706 334720
      324727 316737 310745 303755 296764 294766 289767 282768
      268773 258777 248782 238791 232799 230804 228807 228811
      229826 231835 234840 236846 239851 242856 245859 252862
      256864 260868 264874 271883 275886 280888 282892 284892
      286887 288879 288873 289865 292859 295855 296849 296844
      298841 301836 305831 311830 324829 329828 334824 340821
      343817 347805 351791 357781 359767 366756 368751 370746
      372731 372725 373720 373713
 0.01 225054 229062 233066 244077 263097 269102 275106 282110
      292111 302112 308110 310107 311103 314095 324096 325092
      327092 333097 336097 340096 345080 349073 351068 355067
      359067 363065 368063 368054 364046 363045 362047 359045
      351046 346046 343045 337042 327041 320042 316043 314047
      316050 318055 317060 315066 310069 305069 300068 298066
      293065 279060 270057 263053 259052 257049 253044 249038
      247030 243013 245008 245004 249995 250992 256991 259993
      262992 266995 271001 280012 285016 290016 293014 293009
      291005 289999 283985 279978 278975 280972 278955 278943
      278932 278927 276925 274922 270923 266938 263958 259959
      255959 249956 243954 239955 236957 233967 232974 231977
 0.25 519265 519258 517252 514240 510228 505217 501207 504201
      509199 519199 524200 526196 525182 520170 504165 500167
      496169 494173 495179 495184 494189 491192 486200 476204
      468210 464211 461213 452219 436230 426234 417234 410240
      405243 400244 396247 394253 395260 397264 400267 403268
      408268 419266 438264 458260 468259 473261 476264 483273
      486279 490283 500289 504287 508285 511281 514275 519265
 0.25 454964 450962 448959 448956 451952 447947 437943 426942
      403946 393950 385956 377963 370972 368977 366984 368999
      371997 374991 384988 390987 395985 407982 411981 418982
      429983 434983 440980 447972 452968 454964
 0.25 367721 366714 363711 358711 353713 344719 338725 326740
      315756 308763 300770 293774 283779 275783 264788 255791
      246796 239802 235811 234822 235832 251841 259846 267850
      275855 280852 284848 290842 293832 294825 297822 301821
      306822 313821 318819 324813 332808 337805 340801 350784
      353774 356764 361756 363751 364744 366731 367721
 0.25 335056 334054 333053 332053 331053 329053 328053 327053
      326055 327057 328058 330058 332058 333058 334057 335056
 0.25 299086 300081 299078 297075 293074 285074 278072 271070
      264066 253058 246055 241051 237050 234051 234053 238059
      248068 257078 269087 275091 282095 286094 289093 295090
      299086
 0.25 248972 250970 248968 247968 246967 244966 243966 241967
      240967 239968 238969 239971 239972 241973 242974 243974
      244973 246973 248972 248972
 0.50 513269 515263 515257 513248 508232 502218 498211 493208
      485207 478207 469213 462215 457219 453223 447226 436233
      430236 424236 418237 413242 402249 403253 405256 411260
      419263 426262 451257 464254 471255 476258 487267 497278
      503282 507278 510272 513269
 0.50 519188 519185 518181 516179 513177 510177 507177 506179
      504183 504186 505189 507191 510191 512191 515191 517190
      519188
 0.50 433968 430963 424959 420959 414961 410962 408959 407956
      405953 399952 393954 384961 379965 375970 374975 376976
      381974 388974 393978 396979 401978 407975 411973 417975
      423975 428972 433968
 0.50 363731 363723 361717 356716 352718 344724 337731 326747
      320755 314762 308768 300775 293780 283785 276790 271793
      266794 256795 248799 242806 240810 239817 239824 241829
      249833 265843 274847 279846 283844 289838 290832 289826
      283818 281814 277811 278809 280807 283807 292811 300816
      305818 310818 319813 327805 332800 341794 347786 349781
      350776 353765 358756 360751 361743 363731
 0.50 294081 292080 290080 288080 287080 285080 283079 281079
      279079 278078 277080 277081 277082 279084 281084 283083
      283082 285081 286081 288081 290083 292083 294082 294081
 1.00 510254 509247 508243 504234 501224 498220 495217 486213
      482211 479212 475214 477216 485221 491227 495236 500244
      505252 508255 510254
 1.00 482242 480233 478230 475229 469232 466233 462233 458230
      455231 448233 442234 436238 431241 422240 417244 417250
      419253 423254 426254 433253 446249 459247 466246 472246
      479246 482242
 1.00 474219 473218 471217 470217 468217 468218 467220 469220
      471220 473220 474219
 1.00 392963 391962 389962 388963 387965 387966 389966 390965
      391964 392963
 1.00 358734 357727 355725 351725 346728 343731 336740 330749
      323758 316766 309773 301780 293787 284792 282796 286801
      294807 303812 309813 315811 329796 338789 345781 347777
      348770 349765 352760 355755 357748 358735 358734
 1.00 282833 278827 274825 269826 263826 259825 255817 253813
      249810 246811 245815 247825 250828 254830 258831 262833
      268837 277838 281838 282833
 1.50 499232 499229 499228 499227 498224 497224 496222 495221
      493220 492222 493223 493225 494226 495228 495229 497231
      498232 499232
 1.50 478240 478238 477235 476233 474233 473234 472235 472236
      472238 472239 473240 475241 477241 478240
 1.50 462240 461240 460238 458238 456237 455237 453238 453239
      451240 452242 452243 453243 454242 456243 457243 459242
      459241 461241 462240
 1.50 353751 353744 351739 347737 343739 337745 332752 326760
      321765 315771 309777 298790 292796 292800 296803 302807
      306809 311809 323797 336786 343779 345770 348761 352753
      353751
 2.00 348754 348749 345747 342747 339749 334754 331759 327764
      322768 318770 317772 314777 305788 304794 307799 311800
      314798 319795 331787 336784 339779 343773 344765 348754
 3.00 341759 340755 337758 334763 331768 327771 322775 319780
      320784 324786 327785 332782 336778 339773 340766 341759

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