Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 190616
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHEAST

THE UPR LOW WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD AND OFF THE GA COAST BY LATE SAT
AFTN.  TO THE NORTH OF THE UPR LOW...DEEP LAYERED ELY/NELY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DECENT MSTR OFF THE ATLC...OVERRUNNING
WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST..PROVIDING MDT TO SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN
MAINLY ACRS THE CAROLINAS. SOME SHWR DVLPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
UPR LOW ITSELF ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN LOW LVL CLOUD
COVER OCCUR SAT MRNG AND AFTN.  LEANED CLOSE TO EC GIVEN ITS GOOD
CONTINUITY BUT DID FEEL THERE COULD BE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER
BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF NC GIVEN FAVORABLE ELY 85H
UPSLOPE FLOW.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CNTL
PLAINS

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING
FAIRLY BROAD UPR TROF EWD ACRS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE SRN
ROCKIES BY SUN MRNG.  MODEL QPF HOWEVER CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE
SPREAD IN DETAILS..LEADING TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN MANUAL QPF.
 BETTER FORCING COMING OUT ACRS SRN NM TOWARD WRN TX SAT
NIGHT..SUGGESTS THAT AREA WILL SEE SOMEWHAT HIER THREAT OF
ORGANIZED CNVTN MOST LIKELY NEAR DRY LINE.   SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPR TROF ALONG WITH DEEPENING MSTR FROM THE SRN PLAINS
DIRECTED INTO SRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE THOUGH
AGAIN MODELS SHOW LARGE SPREAD IN WHERE THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL
TEND TO FOCUS.  LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED QPF
GIVEN LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN QPF DETAILS.

FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FAR UPPER MS VALLEY

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT HERE WITH S/WV ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH
EWD ACRS SCNTL CANADA.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF .25-.50"+ PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN
THE AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MAINLY ACRS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO THE UP OF MI.  A GENL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ALL SHOW SIMILAR TIMING/AMPLITUDE WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT
WILL PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NW PAC COAST LATE SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.  A QUICK SHOT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL LIGHT
TO MDT PCPN AMOUNTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND CASCADES OF WA/NRN
OREGON..WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SPREADING EWD INTO NRN ID/NW MT.
STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY GIVEN DECENT RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 568013 568998 567989 566980 563970 558949 554931 554921
      555916 555908 553902 553894 552889 550876 547866 544855
      535837 533832 531829 527823 517815 512809 506807 493804
      481806 475807 472810 465814 459820 449833 444840 442844
      442851 438868 436871 436877 437889 435899 433909 430916
      426923 417939 405951 399957 392961 389963 386967 379972
      354984 340991 330998 323002 319002 316000 310000 306998
      298997 295996 290998 282002 279004 277006 278009 267008
      272020 275027 276035 276041 277044 281049 286055 290060
      295069 296073 296077 297083 299086 304088 306093 308103
      308108 310113 314122 319125 322124 323121 325117 328116
      333117 336119 340124 343128 343133 348139 353142 357138
      360129 363119 361098 357091 354090 354086 359082 366077
      369080 371084 371090 369095 368103 371119 373129 374134
      384124 387120 392117 400118 408117 412111 411103 410098
      407096 406100 403105 400108 398108 396107 395104 396098
      395090 395084 396079 398076 401074 407070 411065 414062
      416058 417048 410047 405048 402046 394041 387036 378034
      379020 381015 384012 390008 398006 404003 410001 413993
      417985 421980 426975 431969 435962 440959 442957 445954
      447959 450959 454957 461953 469949 478947 487948 493952
      497957 500965 501976 501989 502996 503001 507007 511012
      524023 530029 534030 538032 545036 548039 552039 560035
      564027 568013
 0.01 525256 522250 519244 516239 514232 507216 505209 506203
      507198 530201 532199 534195 533187 527173 521162 517156
      514152 493137 489133 485130 480126 477125 473125 469130
      465135 461141 455145 446150 445167 448168 451172 450184
      453188 458185 461181 461173 460174 458172 458169 460168
      464167 468169 476171 484182 488184 488187 489195 485199
      480203 469206 462207 457211 437217 434220 432225 432230
      430233 425235 420235 418237 414241 414248 416255 418257
      421259 436260 452265 457265 463267 470270 475273 495296
      499303 502307 505309
 0.01 491669 489666 487665 484666 483664 479664 473668 467674
      461678 458684 458695 451701 446705 440710 439713 439716
      440726 445729 448729 451727 462716 474707 483696 486689
      488681 490674 491669
 0.01 408150 408146 405144 399140 390138 384140 381143 380146
      380156 382158 385161 387162 390164 390167 390169 393168
      398164 402158 406151 408150
 0.01 373186 374184 373183 372183 370182 368182 366182 365182
      363182 361183 359183 358185 359186 360186 362187 364187
      366187 367188 369188 371188 373186 373186
 0.01 374719 371702 367687 362684 357682 348684 343688 311727
      303734 295736 289737 273740 269742 265744 260749 257754
      257760 260766 261770 258772 250782 247788 243793 238803
      237810 238817 241821 245818 248815 249811 252806 257802
      262799 275797 281797 287798 293816 295818 294821 291826
      288830 286835 286841 285848 286857 289858 293858 300857
      307858 320858 326855 334854 345847 353838 360829 363821
      364814 369799 375772 375762 374753 372743 373733 374719
 0.25 522263 517255 513245 509235 506231 504226 502220 500217
      497211 493209 485208 480209 476211 473214 470215 464216
      459217 453221 455225 459229 459232 455235 451237 449241
      457245 466252 472257 482262 489269 497277 499280 504283
      509283 513282 516285
 0.25 544949 543939 540928 539924 538917 537910 536905 531899
      524900 519897 515895 511898 509901 508906 508911 510916
      514923 514931 512936 513949 515962 516973 517979 518984
      521986 525988 534988 538988 541984 543974 544949
 0.25 518185 519177 517173 512172 509172 505171 502170 498172
      501175 505178 508181 511184 515187 518185
 0.25 492237 491232 489226 486223 483221 478219 474219 472220
      471223 472226 475227 479228 481233 482238 486237 490239
      492237
 0.25 501914 500905 497895 494887 493875 493867 491856 487850
      481846 478846 474847 468851 464857 462866 462877 464888
      468907 468919 469923 471925 478924 486925 491923 498919
      501914
 0.25 471833 470831 467830 462834 458837 455842 453848 450855
      451858 455857 458857 463854 465849 468843 470836 471833
 0.25 423954 424950 422949 419952 412960 406968 400976 394984
      389995 392997 396994 403988 410980 412976 414968 420961
      423954
 0.25 366710 366704 365699 363695 360692 355691 350692 346694
      343698 335710 324725 313735 306740 297745 290748 281750
      272754 269757 269763 274766 278768 279772 278782 281787
      284790 291793 295794 297796 302802 304807 306814 309820
      314821 318821 329819 334821 338823 342829 344833 348831
      354826 357822 359818 365778 363755 363743 364731 366710
 0.25 346033 345027 342025 338024 330023 325020 321019 318020
      313024 301027 297031 295036 293038 293041 294044 298048
      308057 314060 318059 321057 325054 330054 334055 340052
      342043 346033
 0.25 338089 337084 337082 336080 334077 331076 327077 325078
      323080 322082 321087 322090 324092 328092 329092 333091
      336091 338089
 0.50 516270 517264 515259 511249 508238 502230 498221 495218
      493220 495232 496238 500243 503251 502255 499254 496251
      490242 486240 482241 478232 474232 469235 466235 465239
      468244 472249 480254 487260 493268 500276 503279 507278
      509273 513271 516270
 0.50 482862 481859 479857 477855 474855 473855 471858 469860
      469865 469868 469870 471873 474873 476872 479870 481868
      482864 482862
 0.50 362709 360700 358698 355697 348698 342704 335716 332723
      327729 305748 300752 296757 294761 296764 296773 295780
      296788 307799 312803 316803 319802 322795 326792 330791
      335793 339799 342809 345818 348822 352822 354819 357814
      359809 359803 359794 360785 359775 358763 358753 359745
      360727 362718 362709
 0.50 318035 315032 311032 312035 310037 308039 304042 304046
      307048 313048 312045 313041 316037 318035
 1.00 356717 356711 354706 349706 345710 342716 338725 334732
      327739 321743 318747 316751 312771 316777 317781 319782
      325781 333781 343783 349787 351778 351767 351755 353745
      354734 354724 356717
 1.00 355806 356804 356801 356799 354797 352796 350798 349800
      349801 348802 348805 349807 349809 349810 351810 353810
      355808 355806
 1.50 347750 346746 344744 338747 332750 328753 325758 325765
      326772 330775 337774 340774 344772 346767 346759 346752
      347750
 2.00 342766 342764 342761 341759 341757 340757 339758 337759
      335760 334762 333763 332765 334767 336768 338768 340768
      342766 342766

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.