Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 28/1200 UTC THRU NOV 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PIVOT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE PAC
NW REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PAC NW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITHIN THE
ELONGATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX
ANOMALIES PEAKING GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PER THE SREF/GEFS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...PWATS APPROACHING 1.00" CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NRN CA/SRN OR COAST...INVOLVING THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE
RIBBON/ELONGATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICH EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE NRN CA COASTAL RANGES LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
SINKS DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE
REGION WILL FOSTER MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND ALSO THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST
CA...WHERE ADDITIONAL WATER EQUIVS OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WPC QPF LEANED RATHER STRONGLY TOWARD AN
ENSEMBLE OF HIGHER RESOLUTION GLOBAL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
ECMWF/GFS/PARALLEL GFS)...ALONG WITH THE RGEM...NAM CONEST...AND
NSSL-WRF TO ACCOUNT FOR TOPOGRAPHY AND THE DEEPER-LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS FAVOR A STREAK OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AND SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
TROUGH. THE LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING AND ENSUING MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG/DEEP ENOUGH FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS MOST AREAS UNDER A 0.25
INCH. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 557092 556083 557069 555045 552034 550023 546999 545992
      543988 539976 536964 533958 533948 530920 523897 516886
      511879 507872 506867 503863 499853 498847 496841 493831
      489828 486830 483834 479835 473827 468815 466810 463806
      459804 454805 449799 446797 444800 440806 438804 437799
      434799 431802 427802 425799 428791 426784 422785 419789
      415777 414772 411770 406768 402770 400772 399775 398780
      399786 401790 410813 412818 413824 413830 415837 416847
      418856 423876 427884 430894 434904 440908 446913 450921
      455930 460937 467944 478946 482958 485972 485995 484022
      484029 482034 482042 483048 486070 487076 486082 481090
      477099 474100 472098 469099 465102 460100 456097 453094
      449091 444093 440091 438090 438093 435095 433095 428091
      427094 430098 430101 428103 426106 423107 425111 423122
      422135 424136 426133 427128 429125 432120 435114 438112
      441114 443118 444121 448122 449127 450131 448133 443132
      439134 436135 434142 432147 431154 434160 436164 432166
      429163 426162 425167 427170 429172 430175 428180 423186
      421188 423190 426190 430190 432192 430197 419198 414198
      409201 404201 401198 397195 393196 379205 369219 365224
      361232 360235 361238 362242 366244 370245 374249 373254
      372258 370261 370266 370272 374274 381277 384278 393274
      400270 403268 405268 405271 409274 415276 421277 424274
      431269 438266 444266 451266 459268 467269 471269 473263
      478254 481255 484252 488250 490255 496262 501260 497255
      496250 496246 498243 501244 505253 510265 512269 518271
      520269 522264 519249 514229 510222 509217 508213 509209
      512208 516211 522218 529215 534209 536203 538193 538188
      540186 543180 547170 550162 552144 554127 554117 554109
      554102 555097 557092
 0.01 476197 476193 473192 469193 468193 466192 464191 462193
      459194 457195 456199 458201 461201 464201 467201 470201
      472200 474198 476197
 0.01 466705 465699 461698 451700 449704 445708 442712 439716
      438722 437726 435727 433729 430730 424732 424735 431733
      439731 443733 448734 452731 455727 455720 457714 465707
      466705
 0.01 468120 467118 466117 465116 464115 464114 462113 461114
      460114 459116 460118 462118 463119 464119 465120 467121
      468120
 0.01 442759 441755 440750 437746 432742 429745 430754 428752
      424753 423758 425763 429769 430772 433773 437772 440767
      442759
 0.01 433694 431682 428679 423677 415679 408683 404692 402702
      404704 408705 413705 416710 420717 424715 425710 430702
      432699 433694
 0.01 422167 423164 422164 421164 422166 422167 422167
 0.25 543084 542076 541071 537056 535044 531030 527002 523991
      518981 515977 512975 508979 506985 505001 501013 499018
      499027 500035 502040 505038 507038 513051 516061 519065
      521073 524075 526081 530093 533092 536087 537085 539088
      543084
 0.25 520178 520170 520164 518161 515152 513149 511144 508134
      502127 497121 494120 492121 489122 483119 477122 470123
      468127 468133 464135 461132 458133 455136 449143 442145
      439145 436147 435151 436155 437160 440163 444169 448176
      449180 446182 444184 443187 442196 443200 441205 440209
      437209 432210 428207 424206 421207 421209 423212 422217
      420220 418220 416216 413214 410214 402207 397203 393204
      390206 386210 383213 382216 383218 375231 376235 378239
      383248 387252 389256 392258 402259 408261 411264 415267
      419266 422264 429259 436257 448254 453256 456259 464262
      467262 470258 474249 479241 481236 482229 484227 487226
      490225 493227 496230 500229 501225 500221 498211 495202
      491199 487197 484198 480201 476203 470205 467207 463207
      459207 456208 453210 449210 446208 447204 446201 449200
      451197 455189 460187 467186 474185 477182 480181 510188
      516185 520178
 0.25 479145 478142 477142 475143 473142 472143 473145 474146
      474147 476147 477147 478146 479145
 0.25 452100 452097 451097 450100 451101 452100
 0.25 446870 445868 443866 443865 442865 440864 439863 438862
      436862 436864 436866 436868 437868 438870 440870 440871
      442871 444872 445871 446870
 0.25 402226 403223 402221 401220 399219 397220 395220 393220
      392221 391221 390222 391224 391225 392226 394227 396227
      398227 399227 401226 402226
 0.50 507169 510152 507146 503141 496134 492130 486127 483125
      480123 478124 475125 472124 470127 471132 470136 470139
      473140 479142 481144 481148 474149 470144 468142 465142
      461141 456144 453151 450149 447150 441149 440149 438153
      440160 443164 447167 449173 451176 454178 455185 473176
      476174 478173 481175 485176 491175 498177 503175 507169
      507169
 0.50 493217 494212 492207 491203 488203 483203 480204 473207
      444214 436213 433214 429211 427212 425217 422221 421226
      418228 414227 415221 412217 408216 400209 394206 391209
      390213 392216 397217 400218 404220 406222 405227 402229
      398229 394229 389227 386226 383227 381232 390243 395250
      401253 406253 419263 432253 437250 444248 453248 457248
      461249 468250 473244 477240 479235 479228 482225 488222
      493217
 0.50 466172 466169 466167 465167 464164 463162 461161 459160
      458160 457160 456160 455162 454164 454166 453169 454171
      455172 456174 458174 460174 461173 462173 463173 465174
      466172
 1.00 505151 500145 495140 490134 485130 482127 478126 476128
      472128 473138 479139 482140 484143 488150 495153 498155
      501153 505151
 1.00 489216 489209 484207 478208 473211 453215 443216 439215
      436217 429217 425220 424223 425227 424231 422231 420230
      417232 412231 409231 407234 401236 398236 395238 398242
      403246 408247 413251 417255 419257 421256 431248 434244
      439241 451238 456239 460237 458234 455234 451235 453230
      459228 463229 465227 470225 480223 486220 489216
 1.00 495171 491165 488157 485154 482153 476152 472151 469148
      465143 462144 461146 461151 462156 468162 469165 472167
      479166 486170 494172 495171
 1.00 453161 453160 452159 451157 449156 449155 448154 446155
      445157 446160 447162 449164 450164 451163 452162 453161
 1.50 497148 495144 492141 490137 487134 484130 480129 477132
      476134 480137 484139 489141 490141 491145 493148 497148
 1.50 485217 487213 486210 483208 481209 478210 476211 474214
      473216 473219 476220 479221 481220 484219 485217
 1.50 489167 488166 486166 484165 484166 486167 488167 489167
      489167
 1.50 474159 473158 473156 472154 471153 471152 469150 467150
      465151 465152 465153 465154 467156 467157 468158 470160
      471161 472161 473159 474159
 1.50 458222 458219 454217 452218 449217 442216 437218 433220
      427221 425222 427224 431228 435230 440229 446228 451225
      455223 458222
 1.50 429245 430239 427236 423236 420233 416234 412236 408238
      410240 413243 418246 420250 423250 427248 429245
 2.00 484217 485215 485212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479212
      477212 477213 476215 477215 478217 479218 480218 481218
      483217 484217
 2.00 487136 486133 484133 483133 482133 483133 484135 486136
      487137 487136
 2.00 450222 449219 447218 445218 444217 442217 441217 440218
      439219 439221 439222 441223 443223 444223 446224 448224
      450222
 2.00 428242 428240 428239 426238 425237 423237 421236 420235
      418235 416235 414236 414237 413238 414240 414241 415242
      417243 418243 420244 422245 423246 424246 425246 427244
      428242
 3.00 423241 422240 421239 419238 418237 416239 417240 419241
      420241 422241 423241

$$




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