Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200610
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 20/1200 UTC THRU APR 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR




DAY 1...

...CAROLINA COASTS...

MOIST ELY FLOW PATRN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND UPR LOW SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST WILL KEEP RAIN
THREAT CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THE
CAROLINAS..ESPECIALLY THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.  MANUAL QPF GENLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE EC/NAM WITH THE GFS AND 12Z UKMET
APPEARING TO BE A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE.


...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
WILL ENCOURAGE SOME POOLING OF HIER PWS INVOF THE BNDRY WHICH
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION..WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF CNVTN FROM NEB NEWD INTO THE GT LAKES
REGION.  FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW THE GFS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE
PWS A BIT TOO HIGH ACRS THIS REGION..WHICH LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR IT
BEING THE HEAVIEST SOLN WITH REGARD TO QPF.  GENLY FAVORED A
EC/CANADIAN/UKMET BLEND WITH A STRIPE OF .25 TO .50 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

SWRN U.S. UPR TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THIS PD WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE 5H TROF WITH TIME.  THIS GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ALONG WITH
LACK OF WELL DEFINED SFC FOCUS AND GENL LARGE SPREAD IN QPF SOLNS
LEADS TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACRS THIS REGION.
DO BELIEVE SOMEWHAT HIER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER WILL TEND TO DVLP
ACRS N TX INTO OK WHERE SWLY 85H FLO INTO COLLAPSING THICKNESSES
GENLY FAVORS DECENT LIFT.  GIVEN LARGE MODEL SPREAD..GENLY FAVORED
AN ENSEMBLE APCH HERE WITH 12Z EC/UKMET/CANADIAN GEM GIVEN
SOMEWHAT HIER WEIGHT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 538205 539199 538195 536188 530178 529175 526172 523167
      519162 515159 507149 505145 500146 496145 495140 494137
      491137 483130 479129 477130 475137 480140 485141 494153
      503158 507163 508166 506168 498161 497159 493157 489157
      487158 487163 491166 495172 498177 501181 508183 508188
      511190 516194 521205 525209 528211 532211 536209 538205
 0.01 525258 519244 513233 502224 500217 497213 496210 491209
      488208 486209 483209 481211 478215 476218 478221 485223
      486226 484228 481231 475235 472236 471239 462243 457246
      452250 447253 443257 435267 432273 431277 431282 432285
      436287 439288 442287 447287 453288 466288 471287 475285
      477284 482284 489286 494287 497288 499290 501293 505296
      508297 510296
 0.01 536048 537020 537006 536999 536991 532971 535950 535945
      534942 532935 530927 527919 526913 525909 520906 510899
      503897 494898 476901 465894 458889 457880 460865 464850
      481829 485822 487818 487812 487790 473787 469788 467791
      464798 461804 458808 451796 449790 447792 447796 445805
      445809 443812 442817 442822 439831 436842 435853 431894
      426905 420918 413929 407944 399930 389915 385914 380915
      371915 365917 358920 351923 345926 335934 332939 330941
      330945 328952 325958 321964 319966 315968 309974 300977
      287980 280982 272986 265994 269004 269007 273009 278013
      281018 285018 287020 296021 304024 314027 317029 320032
      322039 322045 323048 326055 334058 337063 345064 352063
      356063 359065 365068 370073 374076 378073 382067 388061
      396062 399066 400070 402077 407082 413080 418072 421067
      423064 423060 423055 420053 414050 410042 409035 405023
      404018 405012 407009 410011 411015 415014 419012 424011
      437007 441007 444005 451001 457013 469014 478015 484018
      490020 494026 497036 495043 493044 485049 481056 481064
      484073 489079 491081 494080 497078 500080 504083 510084
      515080 520075 523068 529056 536048
 0.01 479992 475989 474987 471989 469990 467992 464994 462994
      460996 457998 460000 463998 465998 468998 470996 473996
      475994 479992
 0.01 458001 457998 455999 453000 455003 456003 458001
 0.01 398110 396108 393110 391112 387113 381115 378116 374118
      373123 377124 381122 385120 387118 390116 394113 398111
      398110
 0.01 377716 376702 373689 369684 362679 356680 355684 351687
      337696 333703 329712 328720 327729 327735 325740 321747
      317755 315762 314766 311771 305777 299782 292785 282789
      279791 277795 277799 279803 285806 293809 297809 301811
      306812 310812 319811 326805 332799 336798 340797 345796
      347794 366766 371746 373739 376730 377716
 0.01 353117 351114 348110 346107 345103 343098 340095 338096
      341100 342105 342109 345114 349117 352117 353117
 0.25 514274 516270 516265 516259 516251 513245 508237 504235
      501235 499237 494240 490241 482244 479250 477256 477263
      479269 485271 489274 495276 498280 502284 507285 511281
      513277 514274
 0.25 520939 520934 519931 518928 517924 514926 513929 512933
      511936 511942 511947 512950 514952 515952 517949 518944
      520942 520939
 0.25 456845 457839 455835 452838 449843 447848 443864 440878
      431902 424928 419942 415954 412961 410968 412972 417973
      422971 427966 431954 437943 440939 444935 447929 448919
      449904 450885 451869 454854 456845
 0.25 458969 457963 453964 449966 446969 442971 439973 436976
      436979 438980 443979 446976 448973 452971 457970 458969
 0.25 392009 393003 393996 389995 385996 380001 374002 367005
      359005 356001 354998 357997 370990 375988 378986 379983
      366972 361965 359957 356951 352951 348952 342955 339956
      336959 333965 330970 315992 315002 316006 318009 323013
      329015 339016 348015 352015 359018 363018 366022 366025
      369028 372028 374026 379023 388016 392009
 0.25 368730 368722 367715 364706 362701 359697 356695 350696
      343702 338709 336719 334728 331738 328746 321763 320773
      320778 323782 328783 333781 341777 349773 355768 361760
      364753 367742 368732 368730
 0.25 372044 371042 369042 368043 369045 371044 372044
 0.50 512263 513257 512252 509242 504241 502244 497246 494246
      489246 486248 484259 490265 493271 495274 501281 505281
      507276 509267 512263
 0.50 445909 445896 443894 441895 436900 433908 431916 429928
      430937 435937 439930 442923 444913 445909
 0.50 364728 363719 360711 357706 355703 352703 348704 343710
      340715 336732 332746 329754 327762 328768 329772 331774
      333774 340768 347767 352764 354762 358756 361749 363742
      364733 364728
 0.50 356974 355967 354964 350961 345962 341964 339967 337973
      339980 342982 346983 350982 353979 355975 356974
 0.50 343987 341983 337982 333983 330985 327988 325992 326997
      328001 329004 331004 334001 336997 338993 341989 343987
 1.00 509257 509251 508248 506245 504249 503252 500253 494251
      489252 489257 491260 494264 496270 500275 503275 504270
      503262 505259 507258 509257
 1.00 358736 359730 358725 354717 352714 348716 345722 342729
      340738 340746 342752 344755 347755 351754 356749 358741
      358736
 1.50 500267 500265 500264 499262 499261 498259 496257 495256
      493255 492255 491255 491256 492258 493259 494261 495262
      495263 496265 497266 498266 500267 500267

$$





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