Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS04 KWBC 250637
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/1200 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CNTL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

COMPACT UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PUSH EWD ACRS SRN CANADA ON TUESDAY
HELPING TO DRAG AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT EWD INTO MN BY TUE EVENING
WITH TRAILING PORTION SLOWING ACRS WRN SD.  MSTR IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DEEPENING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT BY LATE
TUES AFTN TO OVER 1.75 INCHES PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 2" AS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW ENHANCES CONVERGENCE INTO THE BNDRY.
MEANWHILE..MODELS RAPIDLY TAKE VORT MAX LIFTING INTO WRN UT MON
NIGHT NEWD INTO WY WITH SHEARING ENERGY MOVING EWD ACRS SD TUES
EVENING.  THE TIMING SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY EXPAND EWD
ALONG THE FRONT THRU SD AND INTO MN WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
TUES NIGHT..WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DVLPG EWD OUT OF SE CO/NE CO
INTO WRN NEB AND STRENGTHEN INTO MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MSTR.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC FRONT WITH THE MIDLEVEL
WLY FLOW SUGGESTS POTNL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ESPECIALLY DURING
EARLY STAGE OF DVLPMENT ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN SD ENEWD INTO SRN MN
AND WRN WI LEADING TO SOME POTNL FLOODING ISSUES.  HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB..WITH
ISOLD STG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO WORK EWD
ACRS SW NEB TOWARD SCNTL NEB BY WED MRNG.  SOME SWD ADJUSTMENT TO
THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS WAS MADE GIVEN STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE HIER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE..WITH THE NAM CONEST/CANADIAN GEM GIVEN A BIT
MORE WEIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH...

WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACRS MUCH
OF THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SE STATES WITH VERY HIGH
TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS FOCUSED ALONG A BROAD UPPER SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ERN TX EWD INTO GA/SC.  WHILE 85H WLY FLOW IS A BIT
WEAKER THAN YDA...SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AND CONFLUENCE COULD SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BANDS LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINS. THOUGH PERHAPS NOW QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS YDA GIVEN THE
WEAKER 85H FLOW...HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR FROM THE CNTL GULF COAST EWD
INTO SRN GA/SRN SC.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LARGER SPREAD IN HI RES
GUIDANCE AND RESULTANT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS..STAYED
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS GENLY .25" TO 50"+.

...SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN...

ACRS THIS REGION...THE MORE CONCENTRATED HEAVIER RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD EARLY IN THE PD ACRS UT INTO WRN CO/SRN WY
WITH WELL DEFINED VORT/CIRC INITIALLY OVER SW UT LIFTING NEWD
AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CNTL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE EAST
OF UPPER TROF ALONG THE CA COAST.   THE UPPER TROF WITH CLOSED
CENTER ALONG THE NRN CA COAST IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
THE PD BUT WITH PASSAGE OF VORT TO THE NE MODELS SHOW SOME GRADUAL
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN INTO TUES NIGHT.  THAT
SAID..SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOONAL CONVECTIVE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN NV
EWD THROUGH UT/WRN CO INTO SRN WY..IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID
LEVEL VORT.   THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE PSBL ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
PRIMARILY FOLLOWED HIGH RES ENSEMBLE MEAN ACRS THIS AREA GIVEN THE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE NATURE OF PCPN HERE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 541968 541957 541950 540946 537922 534912 531902 528890
      526886 522886 500884 500876 501872 504869 507865 518850
      521842 521835 522829 516818 511812 508809 506812 475827
      462837 454842 451845 448850 444853 442858 441870 439894
      438902 436910 435921 433923 428924 421928 419933 419936
      423938 427940 431941 430946 428951 425954 419958 412962
      407965 405970 398985 393993 388004 386009 387018 382024
      384031 387034 388040 388043 386044 383045 373048 368048
      364049 355049 348045 344043 340043 331046 322048 315051
      309057 305066 303072 300074 296074 276073 271072 268070
      258069 253075 253081 255086 262091 270095 275097 280098
      293099 298100 303101 310105 326111 331115 336120 341125
      345134 346138 345144 343151 343155 340161 337165 332163
      328161 325161 334167 339169 342171 352168 354167 357169
      360172 362177 367183 373189 385196 401204 404206 406208
      412216 412222 414226 415230 419233 424234 428230 436226
      436220 434216 430208 427200 428191 427186 425183 424180
      426177 428175 425170 423162 421154 421147 423143 426132
      430125 434122 436123 437126 435131 433139 432147 433152
      436161 442163 446160 450156 452147 454134 456128 456123
      456108 455100 451094 449091 445090 438085 436083 436081
      437075 441073 444075 448077 451078 451075 449070 440064
      439059 440052 443048 446043 446035 444029 443025 443019
      444013 446010 451001 454993 459977 466961 469953 478956
      492965 497966 501965 507961 511959 514956 517970 520982
      524991 526997 529997 533992 536989 539984 540973 541968
 0.01 452738 452733 450731 449727 447724 442724 424734 420735
      415734 412731 410725 409720 410714 411702 411696 410694
      407694 399700 393706 391711 387714 382721 380725 379730
      380743 378756 374757 371759 368761 371765 379768 384769
      390768 398764 403762 407765 412772 412777 408782 401786
      393791 385797 378803 376805 377808 384802 391796 402793
      411791 416791 421794 423796 426794 431783 438766 442759
      450750 452745 452738
 0.01 435703 434700 430700 427700 425700 423701 421704 422709
      423711 426712 428712 430711 432708 433706 435703
 0.01 373713 372703 371697 369694 368689 364686 356685 348688
      343690 340693 334699 329705 322717 319724 314732 310739
      306744 293757 288762 283768 275781 261790 253793 244798
      242799 240802 240811 243819 245821 247818 250814 251812
      253813 257817 258820 259826 263827 268828 271830 271835
      273837 279840 285846 286851 285856 284866 285878 285887
      289891 291895 294901 300905 306910 311916 318931 326949
      326954 328957 330962 330957 332952 332946 334942 347928
      355941 357943 362943 364941 368941 373934 377926 379921
      379914 378902 377889 376877 375873 374870 369864 360849
      358840 360831 362825 361819 361812 359808 356800 354796
      354791 354785 356779 358772 359760 359755 359748 362739
      365733 371723 373713
 0.01 387993 386987 384983 376988 368994 362002 351004 347006
      345011 343015 345017 356014 362015 367013 371012 376009
      380006 380004 381001 385998 387993
 0.01 324158 322158 320158 322158 324158
 0.25 484864 485851 484846 483841 479840 474841 468846 465853
      462860 461865 462869 464873 468875 474875 477878 481877
      484869 484864
 0.25 464927 465922 464916 461908 458899 453891 452888 452883
      452874 451868 448866 445875 442894 441918 440922 438925
      437931 437937 436947 433959 430965 428968 424969 420970
      417973 413980 405993 401999 399003 398009 399017 398027
      401029 405026 411021 416019 418017 423017 427023 431024
      435021 438015 442007 448990 454972 456964 458952 464927
 0.25 419123 417116 413112 411103 411094 411090 413087 416080
      423065 424058 423055 419054 412054 404055 399057 395063
      390068 385071 381075 376078 376086 375092 378097 384100
      386103 386106 384110 382113 373119 368123 359122 354122
      353130 355139 359143 362145 369143 376141 381139 386138
      391133 393131 397131 399132 403133 407131 412131 416127
      419123
 0.25 402146 398141 391140 386141 382147 378151 376157 378163
      379165 383166 388166 390162 391158 393153 398150 402146
 0.25 390762 388761 386762 384762 383762 382761 381761 379761
      378762 379763 381763 382763 383764 385764 386764 388763
      390762 390762
 0.25 355717 355710 353705 352702 349701 344701 340703 336708
      332719 326739 323751 320763 316771 310780 305791 306797
      310800 314800 313805 308814 305824 302838 301843 299848
      294850 294857 294864 295872 296880 299884 305891 307896
      310900 318906 322907 326905 327902 326896 324891 319882
      314872 311858 313849 314842 316837 320833 324834 327835
      330833 332826 333815 336803 347785 352776 354771 353763
      349763 348760 348756 351742 354730 355717
 0.25 341096 340093 339095 340097 341096
 0.25 308087 306083 303081 299080 292080 286081 279080 275083
      274087 277089 282092 288091 294090 300089 306089 308087
 0.25 271814 272810 272806 270803 268802 265801 262803 259805
      258806 256809 258812 260814 262815 266816 270816 271814
 0.50 481867 482862 482857 481852 480849 478847 475846 473848
      472851 471855 471860 472865 474868 475867 477866 480867
      481867
 0.50 459932 459924 459915 458912 456909 452907 450902 448894
      446892 445897 444904 443919 440935 439950 435964 433969
      429973 424974 419977 413985 407996 404000 406004 410004
      413003 417003 421007 425009 431012 434012 436010 441000
      446988 450976 453962 459933 459932
 0.50 413075 415066 414063 411063 405065 403066 403069 399074
      395078 393080 393083 396088 400085 406082 411080 413075
 0.50 407112 408107 408103 406101 405105 404107 400108 398109
      396110 396114 397115 399115 403114 405113 407112
 0.50 412017 413015 412012 411012 409011 408011 407012 406013
      405014 404015 403016 402018 402019 401021 402023 403023
      404024 404023 405023 407022 408021 409020 410019 411018
      412017
 0.50 390121 388117 385116 382117 379118 377120 375123 374125
      373129 372131 372134 376136 378133 380130 382129 384127
      386125 388123 390121
 0.50 386093 385091 383092 385093 386093
 0.50 346728 346725 343724 341724 338727 337730 334745 328757
      322768 316779 312785 312789 315790 325783 327776 331771
      337772 340771 340766 343761 345752 345748 346741 346728
 0.50 334795 334791 332792 328798 325805 319809 313813 310820
      311823 314825 322825 325825 327822 329813 331806 333798
      334795
 0.50 320894 318888 314881 309875 306867 304860 302855 300861
      302872 305879 307886 311893 317897 319898 320896 320894
 0.50 307844 307842 307839 306837 306836 306837 306840 306842
      306844 307845 307844
 0.50 296086 296084 295083 294083 292082 290083 289083 288084
      286084 286085 286087 288088 290088 291088 293088 293087
      295087 296086
 0.50 268812 267811 267810 265809 264809 263808 262807 260808
      258809 259811 260812 261813 262813 264814 266814 268813
      268812
 1.00 454935 455930 452927 448920 446921 444925 443935 443944
      442954 438971 435979 433981 428982 422984 422994 423000
      431002 434002 436999 440991 446976 448967 449957 450945
      453937 454935
 1.50 433990 433988 431988 429988 427989 427990 426992 425994
      426996 427996 429995 430994 431993 432992 433991 433990

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.