Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190955
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 19/1200 UTC THRU FEB 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN PLAINS / MID-UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES / UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE DIVIDE
AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LEAD TO A HIGHLY -PNA TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1 (12Z TUESDAY), WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW/ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEST/EAST RESPECTIVELY. AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
BECOMES HIGHLY MERIDIONAL, THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SW-NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST-UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION, WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT (OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST-UPPER
GREAT LAKES) BECOMING BOLSTERED BY THE STRENGTHENING UPPER JET TO
THE NORTH AND THUS INCREASING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICAL
FORCING. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL TOO BECOME HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD, WITH PW VALUES RISING ABOVE 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE SREF AND GEFS AND 850 MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN
LIGHT OF THE 50-60 KT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW INTO THE FRONTAL
ZONE. ACCORDING TO THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DETECTION FROM THE ESRL
SITE, A CLEARLY DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS NOTED FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN GULF, WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES EXCEEDING 750 KG/M/S (IVT ANOMALIES OVER +3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS).

FROM A DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMICAL STANDPOINT, PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS FOR MID FEBRUARY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF 40N, IN THE ABSENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY. WHILE THE LATTER WILL BE A LIMITATION TO SHORT
TERM RAINFALL RATES, THE ROBUST DEGREE OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT A RATHER
BROAD MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION, WITH 2 FOCUSED AREAS OF A MORE ENHANCED ("SLIGHT") THREAT.
WPC DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER FROM
YESTERDAY`S DAY 2 ERO, IN LIGHT OF THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/LOWER
FFG S, WHILE INTRODUCING ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AXIS FROM CENTRAL IL
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN IN AND FAR NORTHWEST OH GIVEN
THE GROWING HIGH-RES MODEL CONSENSUS OF SPOTTY 24 HOUR TOTALS AOA
3 INCHES. OVER THIS REGION, THERE REMAINS A MULTI-MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PW VALUES AND 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE, SO DESPITE THE INITIALLY
HIGH FFG  VALUES, BELIEVE BY MONDAY NIGHT MORE AREAS WILL BECOME
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH THE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN.


...WEST...

THE RATHER DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE SHAPE, AS A VERY COLD FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, 12Z GFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
INDICATE THIS 500MB FEATURE BEING 2.5 TIMES BELOW AVG WITH
HEIGHTS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIG FROM THE PAC NW TO
SOUTHERN CA/DESERT SW WITH HELP FROM A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL
JET, WHILE WIDESPREAD SWRLY UPPER DI-FLUENT FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT CONCENTRATED QPF ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF OR INTO CA WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE 500MB
MID TO UPPER LOW CENTER AND IN THE WAKE OF UPPER JET, WHERE VERY
COLD 500MB TEMPS SURGE INLAND. MEANWHILE INLAND, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SWRLY UPPER DI-FLUENT FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AND COUNTERACT THE MARGINAL PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
HEAVY OROGRAPHIC QPF FROM MOGOLLON RIM TO THE SAN JUANS/CO ROCKIES
AND WASATCH. ALSO, THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ORGANIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONSUME MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN WY TOWARD WESTERN SD. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT
SHAPE CONCERNING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH, ALONG
THE DETAILS ON QPF, AND WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND OF
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE.

HURLEY/MUSHER


DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CA PROVIDES LIFT FOR GENERALLY LIGHT QPF
ON DAY 2. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS AND REFORMS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ON DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TIMING ON DAY 2...BUT THERE IS
INCREASING SPREAD ON DAY 3 WITH RESPECT TO WHERE TH LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETS UP. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON ITS WAY TO CENTRAL CA BY THE
END OF DAY 2. WHILE MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH THE LIFT TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER WESTERN OR.

DAY 3...
AS THE SHORT WAVE REACHES CENTRAL CA EARLY ON DAY 3...IT DIVES
INTO A REFORMING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RELOADING LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO AUGMENT MOISTURE
IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF OVER THE OR CASCADES. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PROVIDES SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO PRODUCE AXES OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN CO INTO
NORTHERNMOST NM.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES ON DAY 2
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST...EJECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY ON DAY 2. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES LIFT OVER A
SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH FOCUSES DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REFORMS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION
THAT PRODUCES HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 3. THERE IT STILL
SOME SPREAD ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET.

DAY 2...
A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LP OF MI ACROSS IL/MO INTO
AR/NORTHEAST TX DURING DAY 2...MOVING SOUTHEAST UNDER A STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40
TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50/1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS GREATER THAN FOUR STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PORTIONS OF IL).
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONT SHOWED MAINLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MO. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ORGANIZED...BASED ON
ON THE SHEAR IN THE COLUMN...SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 170 KNOT JET STREAK EXITING WI FOR ONTARIO.
WHILE THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF...THERE WAS ENOUGH MODEL SIGNAL TO STRETCH AN AXIS OF 2.50 TO
4.00 INCHES OF QPF FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST
AR INTO SOUTHERN MO.

THIS POSITION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE POSITIONS OF 00Z GEFS MEAN AND
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHILE MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOWED
4.00+ INCHES AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH... BUT AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OFFICES IN THE REGION...THERE ARE VULNERABLE
SPOTS FROM AR INTO WESTERN TN...WHERE SOME STREAMS AND AND SMALL
RIVERS ARE CLOSE TO FLOOD. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN (AS THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO POISED TO
BECOME PART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME)...A MODERATE RISK WAS PLACED
OVER NORTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTHERN MO FOR DAY 2.

DAY 3...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADS IN THE WEST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPS INTO IT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON DAY 3. THE REFORMING
TROUGH BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...SLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TO A
CRAWL. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ON
DAY 3 WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS
TX/AR...WITH THE 00Z GFS JUST A BIT SLOWER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN AR AND
WESTERN TN...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN THE 22/18Z TO 23/06Z TIME FRAME.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING AN AXIS OF 3.50 TO 4.25
INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO WESTERN TN (BASICALLY ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST INSTABILITY). GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS AREA WILL SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL ON DAY 2...PRODUCING NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...A MODERATE RISK WAS PLACED OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN AR (WHERE TWO DAY QPF TOTALS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 6.00
INCHES).  THE MODERATE RISK WAS EXTENDED INTO WESTERN TN...AS WFO
MEG INDICATED THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THERE ARE ALREADY WET. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATE RISK WAS COLLABORATED WITH WFOS
FWD/SHV/LZK/PAH/MEG.


...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM A WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
PROVIDES LIFT OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ON DAY 2. THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ON DAY 3...AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL
FLOW. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL FUEL LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
DAYS 2 AND 3...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GFS...IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME
OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES.

DAY 2...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LP OF MI ACROSS IL/MO INTO
AR/NORTHEAST TX DURING DAY 2...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST UNDER A
STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST MID LEVEL OCCURRING AFTER 21/00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40
TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR (WHICH IS GREATER THAN THREE DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL IL INTO THE LP OF MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO THE SOUTHERN LP OF MI
(WHERE THE INSTABILITY COULD BE ELEVATED). THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL FOR 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN (WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE).
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SOME
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL IL... SO A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL
INTO THE LP OF MI FOR DAY 2.

DAY 3...
AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY
3...IT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.00/1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). THE DEEP MOISTURE...COUPLED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
SOUTHWEST OH/SOUTHERN IN/WESTERNMOST KY)...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...CENTERED BETWEEN 22/18Z TO 23/06Z. THE
850-300 MB FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PROPAGATION
VECTORS...SO TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. THERE WAS A MULTI
MODEL SIGNAL FOR 1.25 TO 2.50 OF QPF STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OH
INTO WESTERNMOST KY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO THE REMAINDER OF OH
INTO WESTERN PA/WV.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER EASTERN KY/SOUTHEAST
IN/SOUTHERN OH IS AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES...AND THE
ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED TO PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM
SOUTHWEST OH/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED HERE FOR DAY 3.


HURLEY/HAYES


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML




THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 498321 499314 498309 496299 496294 494288 489280 484273
      474269 465266 460265 455265 451264 447264 443264 439266
      436267 432270 429272 430277 433279 438281 449284 458287
      460292 459300 459305 460311 462314 467318 474322 485326
      492326 495325 498321
 0.01 495722 493708 491705 488705 486710 485714 483713 483701
      483695 481690 476683 470674 471664 473648 473639 464634
      462633 458635 453638 447639 435643 425646 417651 411657
      407664 404675 402684 400692 396700 393710 391721 387731
      382740 378750 376753 373754 349756 346760 340761 333758
      330757 326759 325764 323766 322770 324773 327775 333774
      338774 343775 348774 347779 344782 341781 337780 335781
      332785 327788 325790 324795 325799 326799 331801 337800
      341798 347796 350798 349801 348814 348818 347822 345826
      340834 339837 334839 328839 328842 338842 336847 333849
      329855 329860 331863 333865 333867 338867 341871 337873
      332876 336878 339876 343873 345870 350870 353869 355868
      355866 353865 352861 357853 363845 363842 359843 356847
      353850 350850 350847 351843 354841 357838 359832 357829
      357826 360823 364821 367818 368815 369812 371813 374814
      377827 380870 377879 372886 367895 362902 357908 353901
      351899 349903 350907 351914 345919 341926 331942 326949
      321956 317960 316965 304968 293972 289973 286974 286976
      286981 289983 292984 292987 289989 282994 280001 281012
      289016 294021 302025 304025 307022 313013 318006 325001
      329997 333996 337994 343996 353996 359989 363985 368983
      372982 377984 385983 387986 389984 391980 396977 403973
      406971 411972 412977 415980 413986 410991 406997 400007
      394014 390023 387037 385047 379046 373044 369040 366039
      365043 364047 360049 359048 358047 356040 351044 352049
      352054 343054 332052 328050 324047 319048 320051 322057
      322063 316071 314080 316081 318081 319080 321081 321082
      319084 316085 315085 311086 307085 299078 292074 284069
      275066 267062 259059 253057 249057 246060 246064 248073
      252081 258086 265093 274100 282104 286111 289115 291117
      294118 297120 301118 306117 312119 321121 324124 326122
      328120 331122 331125
 0.01 331125 329127 329131 332128 334126 337128 345130 348136
      352140 359139 364139 368144 371145 372148 370151 368151
      364154 361154 361157 382147 385147 385150 382155 382158
      384157 389154 389159 388163 386166 385167 383165 379162
      375162 381167 384173 381182 379181 376182 372183 364181
      357181 351182 346187 346191 347195 349197 352199 355200
      351193 352190 354188 360190 367194 372199 382206 388208
      394211 397213 400213 401211 400207 400201 401196 403193
      404196 406194 403188 401185 404184 406182 409179 413179
      416181 415187 414189 416192 417194 415196 413197 409202
      406210 405212 408213 414212 412221 412227 413229 415227
      418226 418235 420235 421234 425232 429233 431232 434232
      436228 438225 442223 445221 447220 448220 446216 440215
      433216 432216 430215 429211 428207 426205 428198 429192
      430185 431182 428182 426182 425184 422185 423182 425180
      427179 428177 433174 429166 426162 424156 423149 422146
      423148 425145 427141 432148 434155 447170 450178 449184
      451188 457187 463182 466177 469170 471166 472160 467155
      466146 465141 461142 459140 457132 456129 452128 448131
      448137 446142 443139 442136 438129 432123 428116 430114
      433114 437113 442113 447109 449109 450114 450117 453117
      469109 468115 467117 463119 464121 468126 474129 475126
      476120 478110 477101 475095 474089 474083 474076 475071
      478064 478052 479047 479041 478033 478028 478021 478012
      477002 478992 480982 483976 486969 489959 490952 491949
      492938 494921 497901 486870 484862 485858 485852 488835
      488823 488820 488814 490793 490770 491749 495722
 0.01 439251 440247 438244 434241 428237 426237 424240 419242
      413240 406238 400239 398240 394239 390235 383232 378228
      369213 366209 361210 354208 348205 339199 338200 337204
      340209 347217 358225 367232 372234 374237 378238 401250
      406253 412255 417255 421256 424254 433254 439251
 0.01 420219 422217 421215 419216 419214 418211 416213 417215
      419216 419218 420219 420219
 0.01 423131 421126 420122 416122 411123 411126 412128 415130
      416132 410132 403132 402138 406139 409138 415139 416146
      418144 419140 418137 419133 423131
 0.01 386111 387109 386107 384108 384109 383111 384111 385112
      386111
 0.01 372116 371114 370113 369112 368113 367115 369116 371117
      372116
 0.01 343180 345171 345167 343165 338162 333163 327160 322158
      319157 317158 314159 315161 317166 322170 328172 334176
      338179 343180
 0.01 350123 348122 346122 346123 346124 348124 350123
 0.01 342856 342853 340854 338854 338856 340858 342856 342856
 0.01 333073 331072 329071 327071 326072 327073 329073 331073
      333073
 0.01 326904 322900 322896 320893 307884 303878 301878 299882
      294887 289888 285887 282885 278885 274887 272890 273893
      276896 278898 284898 287896 289896 290898 288906 299914
      304914 306918 306922 308924 317910 326904
 0.01 310154 310152 310151 308151 308153 308154 310154 310154
 0.01 298800 296798 294799 294801 296801 298800 298800
 0.01 291793 291789 289787 289785 287783 285781 283781 283785
      283790 282794 282796 284798 286798 288797 290795 291793
 0.01 292952 292951 290951 290952 288953 288954 287956 286956
      286958 286960 285962 284964 285965 286964 287964 288962
      289960 290958 290956 292954 292952
 0.01 283972 283970 283968 283966 282966 281967 280968 279969
      277970 275970 274972 273972 273974 274975 275975 277975
      279975 281974 283973 283972
 0.01 272810 268798 262798 260800 255801 250803 247799 240789
      236786 231785 228790 226793 226797 229810 230817 231826
      232833 235838 237844 240849 247857 251861 256864 262865
      269864 271860 268855 261848 258843 255836 253831 252824
      253812 256811 259811 259814 260819 261822 265823 266816
      272810
 0.01 248002 248998 247996 246994 244991 241990 239989 236989
      234991 232993 232997 233000 234003 236005 238006 240006
      244004 245003 248002
 0.25 465742 464737 462732 459723 448711 444708 440711 436723
      427726 420728 419733 419738 416746 414751 413756 415766
      415771 412774 408785 405794 404806 402828 400839 398848
      395860 391870 384886 376901 366915 360922 353925 351929
      349936 346940 343941 338948 334956 329963 325969 319975
      311982 304987 298991 293998 293002 295006 301011 307008
      312002 317994 323987 330981 333979 336980 342981 346981
      352976 358970 362969 368968 375969 379971 387972 393968
      403954 413941 418933 423927 431920 436919 441920 449923
      451923 455920 460912 462904 464892 464888 466886 469883
      470878 470869 469862 468856 467853 465857 464850 464843
      463820 460807 461795 462783 462768 464755 465742
 0.25 449672 447657 442653 435652 430653 427654 424657 421671
      418678 417686 418696 419701 419706 418715 422722 430711
      438700 442695 445688 448687 446684 447679 449672
 0.25 464873 464871 464869 464871 463873 464875 464873
 0.25 453996 454972 454964 452961 447969 444973 442976 435981
      429989 426995 426001 426015 425022 424027 423034 419038
      413043 406047 401048 398050 395056 393059 388060 384058
      381054 378052 371050 355055 355062 356066 358070 362072
      367074 370079 374087 376091 379092 382088 383093 386094
      387092 389090 391089 389087 388084 391084 395091 399093
      402095 407099 410096 413092 415087 417076 424072 430066
      430059 428054 427049 428044 436041 440038 442034 444027
      446022 450010 453996
 0.25 396099 395097 394096 393098 394099 395100 396099
 0.25 392119 392117 392116 390116 389116 388116 387117 386118
      385119 384120 384121 386122 388122 390121 391121 392120
      392119
 0.25 394915 392914 391915 390915 389917 389918 388920 387921
      387922 387923 388924 389925 390924 391924 392922 393921
      393920 394917 394916 394915
 0.25 382135 382133 382131 382129 381128 380127 379126 377127
      375127 374129 374132 374133 375134 376135 378135 379135
      381136 382135
 0.25 368187 366186 364185 362185 361186 362187 364188 365189
      367189 368187
 0.25 378098 378096 378094 377096 377098 378099 378098
 0.25 380060 379059 378058 377057 375057 374056 372057 371057
      371059 372059 373060 375061 377061 379061 380060
 0.25 363121 364122 365121 364120 362120 363121
 0.25 349114 345105 345100 344096 342094 337084 331078 328079
      327082 326087 326092 322095 322098 319103 317106 317110
      323109 326109 329111 332114 338116 343116 349114 349114
 0.25 343061 341059 339058 337058 336057 332055 330055 327055
      326057 328059 330060 334061 336062 339064 341063 343061
 0.25 303099 303097 302096 300095 298095 296095 295096 296097
      298098 299099 301099 303099 303099
 0.25 291094 288084 283078 276072 269068 260064 257063 253064
      251068 252074 257081 262086 270091 274093 280094 291094
 0.25 242821 242819 242817 240816 240817 240819 240821 241823
      242821
 0.50 454752 454746 452744 449741 446739 441740 433742 430740
      427741 425744 424751 425758 427761 429767 427775 425779
      423780 419779 415780 412786 410795 409807 407815 406824
      403842 398858 393873 385890 379904 375910 371915 365922
      361929 353929 352940 349946 345946 341948 336963 335967
      337970 339974 343973 354965 356962 360961 366958 370952
      372944 373938 374935 378927 382920 387913 391909 397905
      401906 402910 400918 397925 394933 388952 387955 387960
      390962 392960 400949 419921 426910 433896 436888 437878
      437872 439866 443859 447854 450846 452827 454815 455804
      454782 451775 451765 454752
 0.50 406058 407056 406055 404054 402055 402056 401058 402060
      402061 404061 404060 405059 406058
 0.50 402072 401069 398067 394067 393066 389065 388068 387072
      387074 388077 390079 392080 394080 397078 399076 401074
      402072
 0.50 381083 383076 381072 379067 377064 372062 368059 366060
      365063 367068 369070 372074 374079 375083 378084 381083
      381083
 0.50 370052 365054 366056 367057 371054 373054 374053 373052
      370052
 0.50 346112 346111 345109 344107 343105 341106 340107 340109
      340110 341111 342112 344113 346112 346112
 0.50 342100 343098 342096 342095 340093 338093 337093 336095
      335097 334099 334100 335101 336103 337103 339104 341102
      342100
 0.50 334110 334108 333108 332110 333111 334110
 0.50 335088 336086 335086 334084 333084 332083 330083 330084
      330086 331088 333090 335090 335088
 0.50 334058 332057 330057 328057 328058 330058 332058 334058
      334058
 0.50 311998 312996 311995 311994 310993 308994 306996 304998
      304999 303000 304002 305004 306005 306004 308003 308002
      309001 310000 311998 311998
 0.50 303002 302002 300001 300002 300003 302002 303002
 0.50 281086 281082 280080 276075 272073 267069 262066 258065
      255067 254069 255075 258080 262084 267087 273089 279088
      281086
 1.00 444817 445811 443805 439799 442790 441781 441775 440769
      438771 436774 432784 428791 411823 407842 405851 401861
      387895 385902 389902 392901 399895 406889 416879 420879
      421885 422895 422901 424899 428891 430885 431880 433871
      438852 439848 436846 433850 431851 429850 428846 428840
      429831 435823 438824 439830 440832 442827 444817
 1.00 438758 437756 436756 435755 435756 435758 436758 437759
      438758
 1.00 377073 377071 377069 376068 375066 373064 372064 371064
      370063 369064 371066 371067 373068 373069 374071 374072
      375073 376075 377073
 1.00 361945 362943 361941 361940 359938 357937 355938 355941
      355943 355945 355947 356947 357948 359947 361946 361945
 1.00 272083 273079 271077 270075 267072 265071 263070 260069
      258071 258072 259076 261078 263080 264081 266082 270084
      272083
 1.50 417858 418851 417844 416838 414837 409847 406855 402864
      398873 395882 395887 397887 404881 411875 414867 417858
 2.00 405873 406871 407868 407866 405865 404866 403867 403869
      402870 401871 401873 400875 400876 399878 400879 402878
      404876 405873 405873

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 418312 429312 432308 437310 441310 447313 457317 467321
      476321 480324 485324 488322 491318 489309 487306 488303
      491300 496292 498288 497284 495278 491268 489262 490257
      492253 493246 492239 491234 490232 488231 482229 478225
      477219 478211 478207 476206 465203 459192 454186 447179
      442188 437201 432210 425234 422239 418243 413242 407241
      402239 398240 385237 368243 364245 362250 360254 359262
      360267 363271 368280 370288 373292 378296 384296 391299
      403306
 0.01 533747 532730 529716 521691 513675 508666 502657 493642
      491638 487637 479634 470630 462628 457630 453629 447635
      441638 438641 434640 431643 426652 424656 424663 423665
      426672 427678 429684 432688 433696 434710 434724 433731
      430736 428741 425744 422754 421775 418787 416795 413805
      409816 404824 401828 398831 392836 389839 386843 382852
      375858 369858 366856 364851 362845 366834 368829 368822
      368817 368811 365808 362807 354811 348815 341820 333826
      326831 322833 322827 322822 319821 309820 300817 292813
      288811 288808 285804 281802 271798 267797 261798 255799
      252801 253805 258804 264804 267804 270806 267808 265813
      266819 272824 280828 285831 290832 296834 303839 305846
      303850 301855 295857 289857 286856 281856 276854 274851
      269845 263837 258827 255826 248826 242831 242838 243842
      247851 252859 257867 266881 271888 273892 278895 286902
      291908 295911 299914 308918 317917 325914 323922 320925
      317924 308925 299922 296920 290920 287924 286929 283933
      281933 275940 266957 262966 261970 260978 259982 260984
      259987 253988 250987 242985 239989 235987 231988 231993
      235998 242003 246005 248010 250020 254023 257027 259029
      263030 267032 272032 284033 288031 292028 294025 299024
      306026 312028 313027 315020 319009 320003 323999 327998
      333998 342994 358986 362985 368981 374976 377974 381972
      387967 395962 401955 410949 417944 422943 427946 429951
      431957 430961 429967 424975 424988 427994 435000 438002
      444004 453005 462001 467996 472989 475987 479982 481978
      484973 487965 494957 506947 514939 516935 520932 525923
      527920 528915 531910 531904 534891
 0.01 534891 534880 534874 535869 534856 534843 533830 532816
      530806 529793 528780 529769 532760 533755 533750 533747
 0.01 422119 422114 421112 415112 412110 413105 413096 409090
      409089 405091 404099 402103 400106 397111 393112 390114
      382122 377127 375129 376132 382131 386127 389125 391122
      393120 397120 400118 403118 410118 422119
 0.01 407058 407055 405053 399050 395049 392048 387049 380062
      368061 366062 365067 365072 367074 370080 373086 374089
      376091 378090 382091 385095 389091 399088 402086 402082
      404074 407058
 0.01 353881 350878 347877 337874 334872 328872 325872 321875
      320879 323883 329889 333889 335893 335903 340897 347890
      352883 353881
 0.01 346085 346080 344074 344070 346068 346063 344057 341056
      338057 335056 332052 328054 327057 328060 331061 332064
      329068 335069 338071 335073 332077 328083 334093 337097
      341099 344095 345087 346085
 0.01 321087 321079 320074 317071 314073 312078 312082 308083
      297083 293081 290083 292086 289089 284091 281095 290098
      300097 305095 311094 319091 321087
 0.01 264068 265063 262061 255058 249054 247052 243051 239051
      237053 237058 238061 242066 245072 248079 254077 260072
      264068
 0.25 513754 513745 512736 509719 507703 504687 500672 495660
      492656 489654 479650 474650 470651 460656 458660 455666
      455680 452689 450695 448701 444727 442734 440739 434749
      432753 432760 431775 429785 425797 415819 410828 404837
      398844 391852 379868 373877 366885 351900 345907 339915
      334923 328930 321939 317941 312943 302948 298952 295956
      294960 292966 287976 283983 277991 274996 274000 275002
      280005 286006 290005 297005 302006 308007 313999 316995
      320992 328987 336984 348980 357976 375965 383960 391954
      397947 404939 411931 413926 415919 420909 425900 431892
      434888 437882 441872 447862 458843 463834 466828 470824
      473822 476818 477811 480806 487800 493792 497787 500780
      504778 507774 510769 511764 513754
 0.25 446287 446283 444280 440276 438274 437271 436264 436257
      438253 441247 438246 435247 427254 417260 413264 410271
      409274 407276 406279 406281 408284 411287 416289 426294
      431294 436293 442291 446287
 0.25 360825 359822 356822 354824 352826 350828 349832 349835
      350838 352837 355835 356832 358830 359828 360825
 0.25 305865 305863 304862 302862 300862 300863 299865 300867
      301868 303869 304867 304866 305865
 0.50 472726 471712 469707 466704 461703 456704 451712 450722
      448731 441745 438754 436766 435777 431788 429798 425806
      420820 415828 410835 398850 380875 375880 368886 362893
      355900 345913 337924 333931 327937 321944 314951 303962
      294972 286987 288991 290994 295996 300996 303998 307998
      311993 323984 330980 338977 343976 348974 357971 369963
      381954 388951 394945 397941 399936 401930 403926 412912
      420900 429884 437864 441856 444846 449831 454811 457786
      459775 459769 461765 467749 469744 471736 472726
 1.00 452750 452748 451748 450746 448747 447749 447750 446751
      445754 445756 446759 446760 446761 447763 447766 448767
      449765 450763 451760 451759 451757 452755 452752 452751
      452750
 1.00 448773 448770 448768 447766 446768 445769 445771 444773
      444774 443776 444778 444780 446780 447778 447775 447774
      448773
 1.00 444807 442801 440798 437797 433799 431802 429808 425820
      420830 417835 414840 409845 404849 395857 391866 376887
      361901 353909 346920 343925 339930 333936 325944 317954
      309962 303970 299974 299977 301978 304979 307981 307986
      310987 319981 326975 335969 340968 343969 349969 358962
      363961 368959 376952 384940 391931 396923 403915 408908
      410903 411898 413893 418884 424873 431859 436848 438836
      439827 441819 443811 444807
 1.50 433833 432828 428826 422836 418844 416849 413854 404857
      397866 391873 386880 380888 373896 366903 360910 358912
      353914 347924 336938 321952 310965 308969 307973 309974
      313979 318977 330965 339960 343959 344962 344965 347966
      354961 358958 363957 365958 369956 373952 377947 387931
      392923 395909 400900 406894 411887 417876 422867 426859
      431845 433833
 2.00 425850 425843 422844 417856 412861 407869 402878 398882
      395881 389887 385895 378902 373904 369907 367910 364918
      356925 351926 346929 341934 336941 328947 321954 315961
      312971 315975 318974 326967 339957 343954 347953 350954
      347960 349962 353959 359956 366950 373941 374933 378926
      384919 387913 388911 387906 385903 387899 391892 393888
      396884 399889 404887 408884 411880 416872 422860 425850
 2.00 368920 366920 365921 364921 362923 362925 362927 362928
      364927 365925 366924 366923 368921 368920
 2.00 355934 354932 352934 351936 352938 354936 355934 355934
 3.00 365936 364935 363935 361936 359938 358938 357940 356941
      357942 359942 360941 361940 363939 364938 364937 365936
 3.00 339945 339942 336943 333947 328951 325955 321959 318964
      320967 323967 326963 331960 330955 335952 338947 339945

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 452325 460323 466321 470322 474321 481319 488317 493311
      497305 502296 510281 514274 519263 522254 525244 527230
      526220 518215 515206 511199 509196 506195 503198 501203
      500206 498205 495201 492199 490200 483204 481206 483209
      487216 490219 492224 494228 494233 491236 486235 478232
      474232 473239 476246 477249 474252 472256 469257 463259
      460260 456263 451269 446278 445281 442284 435289 431292
      429300 428304 427310 430316
 0.01 538789 537763 536757 534752 533739 528721 522704 519694
      516685 509667 505659 502653 494642 490634 488631 485631
      482630 478631 470632 462635 456635 447646 442652 440659
      442666 444676 448682 453688 455690 455697 451704 446708
      437711 433713 431717 427723 419735 414740 409744 404747
      400753 398761 394769 386781 384782 381780 376780 366791
      361796 356799 351799 345802 343804 340807 336812 332817
      326822 323821 319821 307818 301821 301826 300829 305846
      307849 307854 311860 311862 309864 307866 303868 299870
      281887 280891 279897 276904 273910 270915 266919 262926
      259933 259941 266953 267956 266960 262967 258972 253976
      247979 241980 232981 231987 233994 235998 238000 242005
      247008 261013 269013 275015 284016 292016 304019 309020
      312018 318016 322012 325005 327002 331002 333006 336008
      349009 353004 357996 360991 365987 377977 388969 393966
      397961 401953 404946 407938 409933 409929 407924 405921
      405918 407913 408907 410898 411887 413880 420864 426850
      433838 438832 442826 449814 466789 475779 481774 484771
      488773 493777 496784 502801 505810 510815 515822 519824
      524826 532825 536821 538813 538798 537791 538789
 0.01 468147 468145 464144 459143 459140 461138 465139 467137
      466132 463117 460116 457118 455115 454113 456110 456103
      454095 452093 449092 446092 443093 435103 435109 437110
      438112 442113 446120 442127 440133 436138 433145 434153
      437160 441166 443167 444172 443179 441183 433191 431192
      429191 425189 420187 415191 410192 398197 392198 384197
      379194 375196 375198 376202 378204 382209 388212 392213
      395216 396218 394220 388220 385221 384219 381217 375214
      372213 369214 366221 367226 371232 375236 381239 388241
      393245 396247 397250 395252 395256 396259 406268 412269
      415268 419269 429265 437267 441266 442264 450253 453250
      453246 454238 449217 444213 443208 445204 447194 450187
      453179 454169 458163 458158 460155 461150 465149 468147
 0.01 400058 399053 393056 389050 387049 383048 377046 371046
      358049 353054 353059 355061 359061 354064 353067 352072
      354074 358075 359078 362080 368082 376084 380084 382082
      387077 390077 392075 396069 398062 400058
 0.25 501262 500256 499253 495251 492256 489258 486261 484266
      485269 489268 492266 494262 497260 499261 501262
 0.25 492674 491668 489662 487658 484653 482651 478651 476653
      475659 477666 480670 482673 485676 488680 491680 492674
      492674
 0.25 442220 443218 442216 440216 439217 438219 439221 439222
      440222 441221 442220
 0.25 437221 436220 434220 433220 431220 429220 427220 425222
      425223 427224 428224 430225 432225 433224 434223 435223
      436222 437221
 0.25 433766 432761 429762 425770 419785 416793 414792 412789
      410786 410782 409779 409774 410771 408768 404784 399789
      397791 392793 386797 381802 371815 365820 357824 342830
      341834 341841 340851 335866 332873 326879 316890 310895
      303899 298903 294910 293913 292919 292925 290934 287942
      284951 281957 276974 273981 273985 277989 289995 292997
      294000 295004 297007 300009 304008 311004 314002 316998
      319989 327976 330970 335965 347954 358943 366929 375918
      380911 383903 391887 398873 405859 409852 413845 417837
      421829 425822 428813 430806 432796 432794 429789 429783
      430778 433766
 0.25 410787 408784 407787 408787 410787
 0.25 380056 379054 379053 377052 376052 374053 372053 374053
      375055 376055 377055 379056 380056
 0.25 377073 378071 378069 377067 377066 375064 374064 373063
      371063 370063 368061 367061 368063 369066 369068 369069
      369070 371072 372073 374073 375073 376073 377073
 0.25 361067 361065 360065 359067 360068 361067
 0.50 424796 424794 423793 423794 423796 423797 424796
 0.50 422808 423803 422801 419806 410815 399818 390810 386813
      382818 374828 366838 362840 356843 349853 348861 346866
      337877 329885 325889 322894 320900 317906 313910 308912
      302924 301931 297938 291947 293950 292954 290960 285972
      285977 285981 288984 292985 295983 297987 297994 297999
      298003 304002 309998 312994 315988 318982 323971 327965
      332961 340954 348945 355936 363926 369915 377904 383894
      395872 406847 418824 420814 422808
 0.50 391801 391799 390799 389799 388801 387803 386804 385806
      385809 386809 387807 388806 389805 390803 391801
 1.00 398841 399834 394835 390836 386835 383837 380841 375848
      362861 352875 340889 335896 330904 325912 319918 315925
      312935 310940 309946 305954 294968 293973 296976 305979
      307983 306988 307990 309985 310981 311978 313977 317974
      319971 324963 330958 343945 348938 353930 372898 382883
      392867 398841
 1.50 383857 382853 380856 375860 370866 366871 358881 347890
      340902 332912 323923 317935 311948 308954 305962 305968
      307971 311972 316971 318969 322964 327958 331955 339945
      347933 353919 360907 368896 375884 379879 382871 383857
 2.00 376875 376871 373870 370873 363883 356890 353894 350899
      347903 342906 334913 328921 323931 317941 313952 310956
      309963 312967 318967 325958 332952 339942 344932 354912
      357907 360903 366894 376875
 3.00 348917 348914 345914 341916 338915 334919 330930 325939
      321947 318952 317958 320958 325954 332947 337939 341930
      346921 348917
 4.00 331943 330942 328942 327943 327944 326945 327947 328947
      330945 331943

$$





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