Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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975
FXUS04 KWBC 111900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 12/0000 UTC THRU FEB 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD.  A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA THU
EVENING.  ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE...THIS IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING PWS THEREAFTER...HOWEVER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPREADING INLAND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT SOME
LEAST LIGHT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MS-OH VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...

MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN N AMERICA...DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY BY THU EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A NARROW STRIPE OF GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY FRI.  AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST.  BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT MOISTURE BACK INTO AN
AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT SUPPORTED IN PART BY INCREASING LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHEASTERN VA.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES
RESULTED IN MORE NOTABLE QPF DIFFERENCE.  THE WPC QPF RELIED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE GFS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...DISCOUNTING THE
NAM/SREF WHICH WERE ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...SPREADING AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS.

...GREAT LAKES...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...SOUTH OF A DEEP UPPER
LOW DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS.  THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BACK AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH
OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI.  WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF SINGLE-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF THE
LOWER LAKES ON FRI.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 539205 537199 533188 531180 527172 521164 515157 508151
      504142 504136 507133 511133 515132 524134 527135 528130
      522110 519105 516101 510094 507091 508087 512087 513083
      513077 512071 509065 500049 496045 494041 491038 486037
      481037 477034 473028 464020 461018 454017 447012 441007
      438004 432004 433011 434016 435021 436043 440046 443051
      445056 442055 432054 430056 431061 433069 438076 448087
      450090 449093 444094 440095 440097 440105 442108 446111
      448116 451124 447126 445130 443134 444138 444142 445147
      449154 450160 450167 448175 448182 450187 450193 451196
      449197 446198 442200 441204 437212 432215 425218 421220
      418223 414226 410227 402230 395232 393235 391241 389245
      387250 389254 391256 392258 397258 399268 410271 420274
      428272 432273 435277 448286 452290 458293 461296 466298
      481309 490316 499324
 0.01 531235 530227 529221 526220 520216 516212 513211 510212
      510216 511220 513226 517232 520236 524240 526244 529242
      531235
 0.01 486679 486676 483678 479681 475687 471689 469693 460702
      456707 451711 449714 445715 445716 448719 448723 444725
      439726 434727 431730 436730 450731 448733 444734 441738
      437744 435747 431749 425746 424752 424761 427766 429771
      428775 426777 424774 422771 420766 418762 418756 417752
      413753 410754 409758 406766 404770 400774 393783 382792
      365809 359815 355822 350827 348833 348843 351845 354844
      358843 359845 358848 354855 355857 357856 362852 364856
      366860 366864 364865 364874 366876 366880 368887 372893
      395942 410959 416962 421966 428969 431973 437977 441981
      445978 447976 447971 441955 435937 430930 424926 418922
      414919 410905 408896 405891 402887 397885 391882 388874
      387865 385861 382857 380853 379846 382836 381825 380822
      383819 385820 389820 393824 394836 397842 401828 407831
      412831 419870 430874 437876 444875 448872 452872 455872
      458874 460891 461904 462909 465913 467915 469914 472905
      476887 480880 482876 483872 484858 483847 480839 478836
      478830 479822 478811 476807 472808 470812 468821 464824
      462819 464809 464805 467802 470795 479780 483768 482763
      479762 479758 481756 483753 482745 483735 481727 477724
      471723 467724 464726 457729 452729 452726 454725 457719
      458714 460710 467704 473698 478694 480689 484684 486679
 0.01 493079 493068 487065 485058 482055 480054 476049 474039
      472036 469036 466031 464026 457027 455026 454027 451030
      454034 457037 462045 462047 460050 454052 453054 454056
      456057 462062 472068 484075 488078 491081 493079
 0.01 467679 460666 456660 455655 457652 457647 455642 450642
      448645 444647 435649 422649 418651 416654 411658 395668
      389672 384678 380682 378685 376682 374679 371679 364680
      350687 338698 322719 315732 311740 309750 308766 306774
      304779 302787 300791 302804 304814 307821 310823 311819
      316815 320827 320830 321831 324827 325823 328809 331801
      334796 337797 338799 340803 342806 346805 350800 354793
      357787 362782 369771 373763 375755 376746 375740 376733
      383731 386731 390728 398726 401728 404727 408721 411714
      411703 412697 417698 428703 431702 433698 435693 439684
      444677 449675 452675 457680 460683 463683 466682 467679
 0.25 524260 520253 516244 513234 508223 504215 501206 498202
      492199 489198 488196 490191 505194 509192 514193 519196
      522202 524199 523193 521183 518179 514176 510173 506169
      498166 489164 482156 480160 481164 482168 485179 481187
      479192 476196 469203 464208 458213 449217 446219 443222
      444226 449227 452227 456229 454233 450234 443240 441249
      449253 458258 468264 475269 482274 489281 495291 511292
 0.25 483230 484227 482226 480226 480227 481229 482230 483230
      483230
 0.25 469856 469853 469851 468849 467848 466848 465851 465853
      465854 464856 464859 464861 464863 465866 466866 467864
      468863 468861 469858 469856
 0.25 456808 456801 454796 452791 449793 446797 446802 446805
      445809 442811 441814 442817 444817 447814 448811 450810
      455810 456808
 0.25 433249 432244 431242 428241 424241 422241 420242 418244
      418247 419250 421252 423253 426253 428252 431251 433249
 0.25 443759 443757 442756 441757 439760 438762 439765 441763
      442762 443760 443759
 0.25 431672 432670 432667 431666 429666 427666 426667 425667
      423667 422667 420668 419671 420673 421673 423675 423676
      424677 425678 427677 429676 429675 430674 431672 431672
 0.25 427791 428788 426787 424789 423791 422792 422794 421796
      421799 422799 423799 423798 425796 426793 427791
 0.25 361729 358719 357714 353708 348707 343710 337717 332724
      326732 322739 317748 315757 313770 313781 314788 315791
      319790 323784 329775 330770 332766 335765 335771 335776
      341776 350771 355764 358752 359743 359736 359732 361730
      361729
 0.25 340746 339746 337747 339747 340746
 0.50 522267 518256 513245 512238 510233 503221 498211 494207
      488205 484204 478205 474207 470213 469218 472222 477221
      484224 488231 484235 482235 480231 472229 467231 462236
      459239 459244 462250 466255 475261 480264 484270 488274
      491277 502285 507285 511281 514277 519275
 0.50 489170 487169 489170 489170
 0.50 347758 346756 344756 344757 343759 342759 341762 340764
      340765 339766 340768 340769 342768 343767 344765 345764
      346763 346761 346760 347758
 0.50 341731 340726 335728 330733 326741 321749 319759 318768
      317774 318777 321778 324774 325769 329761 332752 335744
      340736 341731
 1.00 514261 514258 513255 512252 511251 509251 509254 509256
      510259 511260 513261 514262 514261
 1.00 509251 506241 503231 500221 494212 491211 487210 483209
      479211 475214 479217 488222 490226 491230 493235 492240
      487239 484241 482242 480236 476233 473235 472240 474244
      479250 484259 489267 497273 499274 502273 503267 502261
      502256 504253 509251
 1.00 327751 326755 326760 328756 330748 330745 327751
 1.50 502238 501234 499230 498224 495220 494217 489214 484214
      486219 490218 493220 493228 495233 496237 499240 501241
      502239 502238
 1.50 499263 498259 497255 495252 494250 491248 490246 487246
      487251 487254 488257 489260 492263 495265 499263
 1.50 479238 478235 477235 476234 475235 474237 475239 477240
      478240 479238
 2.00 494256 493254 493253 492252 490252 490253 491255 491257
      493258 494256

$$





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